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  • Oxford University Press  (47,762)
  • Canadian Science Publishing
  • Springer Science + Business Media
  • 2020-2022  (16,696)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-03-15
    Description: In a recent work we computed the relative frequencies with which strong shocks (4.0≤Mw〈5.0), widely felt by the population were followed in the same area by potentially destructive main shocks (Mw≥5.0) in Italy. Assuming the stationarity of the seismic release properties, such frequencies can be tentatively used to estimate the probabilities of potentially destructive shocks after the occurrence of future strong shocks. This allows us to set up an alarm-based forecasting hypothesis related to strong foreshocks occurrence. Such hypothesis is tested retrospectively on the data of a homogenized seismic catalogue of the Italian area against a purely random hypothesis that simply forecasts the target main shocks proportionally to the space-time fraction occupied by the alarms. We compute the latter fraction in two ways a) as the ratio between the average time covered by the alarms in each area and the total duration of the forecasting experiment (60 years) and b) as the same ratio but weighted by the past frequency of occurrence of earthquakes in each area. In both cases the overall retrospective performance of our forecasting algorithm is definitely better than the random case. Considering an alarm duration of three months, the algorithm retrospectively forecasts more than 70% of all shocks with Mw5.5 occurred in Italy from 1960 to 2019 with a total space-time fraction covered by the alarms of the order of 2%. Considering the same space-time coverage, the algorithm is also able to retrospectively forecasts more than 40% of the first main shocks with Mw5.5 of the seismic sequences occurred in the same time interval. Given the good reliability of our results, the forecasting algorithm is set and ready to be tested also prospectively, in parallel to other ongoing procedures operating on the Italian territory.
    Description: This paper benefitted from funding provided by the European Union within the ambit of the H2020 project RISE (No. 821115), which in particular fully financed the PhD grant of one of the authors (E.B.).
    Description: Published
    Description: 1192–1206
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquake interaction ; Statistical seismology ; forecasting, ; prediction ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2020-10-16
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©: The Authors 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.
    Description: The active tectonic processes in convergent margins confer a high degree of complexity to the crust. Determining the thermal structure is, therefore, key to better elucidate the nature of those processes. In order to reconstruct the thermal structure of the crust beneath the Italian peninsula, we combine the most recent and accurate shear-wave velocity model that is currently available with thermodynamic modelling, assuming a global average crustal composition with no lateral variations. Our model, presented in terms of Moho temperature and crustal thermal gradients, shows a very good agreement with the known thermal anomalies associated with the backarc spreading related to the Apennine subduction. Importantly, we envisage a new anomalous region of high Moho temperatures in NW Italy (T 〉 800 degrees C at 30 km), at the transition between the Alps and Apennine orogens. The lowest temperatures of our model, corresponding to geothermal gradients 〈 19 degrees C km(-1), are obtained in the still active but slow-convergent portion of the northern Apennine. Moho temperatures increase moving southwards along the Apennine chain, an observation that is coherent with the evidence of ceasing subduction and consequent rebalancing of the depressed isotherms along the slab. Our results suggest that a thermal structure in different tectonic settings can be inferred with acceptable uncertainties based on absolute seismic velocity models. In this sense, our approach can be extended to any other region.
    Description: Published
    Description: 239–247
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2020-12-15
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©: The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.
    Description: ectonic earthquake swarms challenge our understanding of earthquake processes since it is difficult to link observations to the underlying physical mechanisms and to assess the hazard they pose. Transient forcing is thought to initiate and drive the spatio-temporal release of energy during swarms. The nature of the transient forcing may vary across sequences and range from aseismic creeping or transient slip to diffusion of pore pressure pulses to fluid redistribution and migration within the seismogenic crust. Distinguishing between such forcing mechanisms may be critical to reduce epistemic uncertainties in the assessment of hazard due to seismic swarms, because it can provide information on the frequency–magnitude distribution of the earthquakes (often deviating from the assumed Gutenberg–Richter relation) and on the expected source parameters influencing the ground motion (for example the stress drop). Here we study the ongoing Pollino range (Southern Italy) seismic swarm, a long-lasting seismic sequence with more than five thousand events recorded and located since October 2010. The two largest shocks (magnitude M w = 4.2 and M w = 5.1) are among the largest earthquakes ever recorded in an area which represents a seismic gap in the Italian historical earthquake catalogue. We investigate the geometrical, mechanical and statistical characteristics of the largest earthquakes and of the entire swarm. We calculate the focal mechanisms of the M l 〉 3 events in the sequence and the transfer of Coulomb stress on nearby known faults and analyse the statistics of the earthquake catalogue. We find that only 25 per cent of the earthquakes in the sequence can be explained as aftershocks, and the remaining 75 per cent may be attributed to a transient forcing. The b-values change in time throughout the sequence, with low b-values correlated with the period of highest rate of activity and with the occurrence of the largest shock. In the light of recent studies on the palaeoseismic and historical activity in the Pollino area, we identify two scenarios consistent with the observations and our analysis: This and past seismic swarms may have been ‘passive’ features, with small fault patches failing on largely locked faults, or may have been accompanied by an ‘active’, largely aseismic, release of a large portion of the accumulated tectonic strain. Those scenarios have very different implications for the seismic hazard of the area.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1553–1567
    Description: 4T. Sismicità dell'Italia
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2021-01-18
    Description: The horizontal to vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) of seismic noise is often used to investigate site effects, and it is usually assumed to be a stable feature of the site considered. Here we show that such an assumption is not always justified, and may lead to incorrect conclusions. The HVSR analysis was performed on ambient seismic noise recordings lasting from weeks to months at many sites in Calabria, Italy. Results show a variety of site effects, from the resonance of a shallow sedimentary layer to the polarized amplification of horizontal ground motion associated with topographic effects. We describe the results of seven sites whose HVSR is characterized by dual content: one that is persistent, and another appearing only occasionally. Two sites very near the coast of the Tyrrhenian sea and five sites in the Calabrian Arc mountains show the most remarkable results. The shape of the HVSR changes significantly at these sites when the amplitude of background noise increases in a broad frequency band during periods of bad weather. The occasional contribution to the HVSR consists of one or more peaks, depending on the site, that appear only when the amplitude of ambient noise is higher than usual. The seven sites where we observe the HVSR variability are all located in complex geological environments, on mountains, ridges or foothills. A variation of the HVSR correlated with the day–night cycle is also observed at some of these sites.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2162–2171
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2021-02-10
    Description: The 2007 caldera-forming eruption of Piton de la Fournaise (PdF) erupted the largest volume of magma (210 Mm3)recorded at this volcano in at least three centuries. Major and trace element and Sr^Nd isotope data for bulk-rocks, groundmasses and olivine phenocrysts have been combined with melt inclusion data (major, trace and volatile elements) to track magma evolution over the whole eruptive sequence. We show that each eruptive phase had a distinctive geochemical and petrological signature and that caldera collapse on 5 April was preceded by a marked shift in bulk magma composition and crystal content and size. Aphyric basalt erupted at the beginning of the sequence (February 2007) had relatively high Sr isotope ratio (87Sr/86Sr ¼ 0·70420^0·704180) and low Nd isotopic ratio(143Nd/144Nd ¼ 0·51285^0·51286). Olivine-basalts extruded on2^5 April just before caldera collapse are less enriched in radiogenic Sr (87Sr/86Sr ¼ 0·70412^0·70416), but characterized by the same Nd isotopic composition. This magma is interpreted as a new deep input, which pressurized the shallow PdF plumbing system and triggered the 2007 activity. Post-collapse oceanite lavas represent the main volume of magma extruded in 2007. Their bulk-rocks and groundmasses have 87Sr/86Sr (0·70418) intermediate between those of February and 5 April, and similar to those of the March 2007 and 2001^2006 lavas.We show that the Steady State Basalts (SSB) commonly erupted at PdF are hybrid melts, which result from multistep mixing between ‘alkaline’and ‘transitional’end-members. Our results lead us to propose a new model of the PdF plumbing system to reconcile the petrological, geochemical and geophysical observations: (1) the shallow portion (above sea level) of the PdF plumbing system hosts several small sills, in which magma experiences variable degrees of degassing, cooling and crystallization; (2) oceanite lavas result from the withdrawal of shallow harrisitic mushes stored at low pressures (548 MPa; 51800^2400 m depth) below both the volcano summit and its eastern flank; (3) water degassing plays a major role in fast magma crystallization at shallow depths. Multistep ascent and periodic extrusion of the shallow magmas is promoted by injections of deeper and hotter basaltic magma, containing up to 1·3 wt % H2O and 1630 ppm S. In 2007, the new deep input was the ultimate source of the large excess in sulfur degassing detected by satellites. Lateral draining and intrusion of magma below the eastern flank of the volcano are the cause of major volcano deformation, flank sliding and summit caldera collapse.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1287-1315
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: 3V. Proprietà chimico-fisiche dei magmi e dei prodotti vulcanici
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: 6A. Geochimica per l'ambiente e geologia medica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Piton de la Fournaise ; plumbing system ; magma reservoir ; caldera collapse ; melt inclusions ; volatile budget ; isotope geochemistry ; basalt
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2021-02-23
    Description: The preparation, initiation, and occurrence dynamics of earthquakes in Italy are governed by several frequently unknown physical mechanisms and parameters. Understanding these mechanisms is crucial for developing new techniques and approaches for earthquake monitoring and hazard assessments. Here, we develop a first-order numerical model simulating quasi-static crustal interseismic loading, coseismic brittle episodic dislocations, and postseismic relaxation for extensional and compressional earthquakes in Italy based on a common framework of lithostatic and tectonic forces. Our model includes an upper crust, where the fault is locked, and a deep crust, where the fault experiences steady shear.
    Description: Published
    Description: 627–645
    Description: 2T. Deformazione crostale attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2021-03-24
    Description: The 2016–17 central Italy earthquake sequence began with the first mainshock near the town of Amatrice on August 24 (MW 6.0), and was followed by two subsequent large events near Visso on October 26 (MW 5.9) and Norcia on October 30 (MW 6.5), plus a cluster of 4 events with MW 〉 5.0 within few hours on January 18, 2017. The affected area had been monitored before the sequence started by the permanent Italian National Seismic Network (RSNC), and was enhanced during the sequence by temporary stations deployed by the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology and the British Geological Survey. By the middle of September, there was a dense network of 155 stations, with a mean separation in the epicentral area of 6–10 km, comparable to the most likely earthquake depth range in the region. This network configuration was kept stable for an entire year, producing 2.5 TB of continuous waveform recordings. Here we describe how this data was used to develop a large and comprehensive earthquake catalogue using the Complete Automatic Seismic Processor (CASP) procedure. This procedure detected more than 450,000 events in the year following the first mainshock, and determined their phase arrival times through an advanced picker engine (RSNI-Picker2), producing a set of about 7 million P- and 10 million S-wave arrival times. These were then used to locate the events using a non-linear location (NLL) algorithm, a 1D velocity model calibrated for the area, and station corrections and then to compute their local magnitudes (ML). The procedure was validated by comparison of the derived data for phase picks and earthquake parameters with a handpicked reference catalogue (hereinafter referred to as ‘RefCat’). The automated procedure takes less than 12 hours on an Intel Core-i7 workstation to analyse the primary waveform data and to detect and locate 3000 events on the most seismically active day of the sequence. This proves the concept that the CASP algorithm can provide effectively real-time data for input into daily operational earthquake forecasts, The results show that there have been significant improvements compared to RefCat obtained in the same period using manual phase picks. The number of detected and located events is higher (from 84,401 to 450,000), the magnitude of completeness is lower (from ML 1.4 to 0.6), and also the number of phase picks is greater with an average number of 72 picked arrival for a ML = 1.4 compared with 30 phases for RefCat using manual phase picking. These propagate into formal uncertainties of ± 0.9km in epicentral location and ± 1.5km in depth for the enhanced catalogue for the vast majority of the events. Together, these provide a significant improvement in the resolution of fine structures such as local planar structures and clusters, in particular the identification of shallow events occurring in parts of the crust previously thought to be inactive. The lower completeness magnitude provides a rich data set for development and testing of analysis techniques of seismic sequences evolution, including real-time, operational monitoring of b-value, time-dependent hazard evaluation and aftershock forecasting.
    Description: Published
    Description: 555–571
    Description: 3T. Fisica dei terremoti e Sorgente Sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.06. Seismology
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: erratum paper
    Description: Published
    Description: 1090-1092
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Theoretical seismology ; Seismic attenuation ; Seismic noise ; Surface waves ; Free oscillations ; Seismic interferometry ; 04.06. Seismology ; 04.01. Earth Interior
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication inGeophysical Journal International ©The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.
    Description: Determining the crustal structure of ocean island volcanoes is important to understand the formation and tectonic evolution of the oceanic lithosphere and tectonic swells in marine settings, and to assess seismic hazard in the islands. The Azores Archipelago is located near a triple junction system and is possibly under the influence of a mantle plume, being at the locus of a wide range of geodynamic processes. However, its crustal structure is still poorly constrained and debated due to the limited seismic coverage of the region and the peculiar linear geometry of the islands. To address these limitations, in this study we invert teleseismic Rayleigh wave ellipticity measurements for 1-D shear wave speed (VS) crustal models of the Azores Archipelago. Moreover, we test the reliability of these new models by using them in independent moment tensor inversions of local seismic data and demonstrate that our models improve the waveform fit compared to previous models. We find that data from the westernmost seismic stations used in this study require a shallower Moho depth (∼10 km) than data from stations in the eastern part of the archipelago (∼13–16 km). This apparent increase in the Moho depth with increasing distance from the mid-Atlantic ridge (MAR) is expected. However, the rate at which Moho deepens away from the MAR is greater than that predicted from a half-space cooling model, suggesting that local tectonic perturbations have modified crustal structure. The 1-D VS models obtained beneath the westernmost seismic stations also show higher wave speeds than for the easternmost stations, which correlates well with the ages of the islands except Santa Maria Island. We interpret the relatively low VS profile found beneath Santa Maria Island as resulting from underplating, which agrees with previous geological studies of the island. Compared to a recent receiver function study of the region, the shallow structure (top ∼2 km) in our models shows lower shear wave speed, which may have important implications for future hazard studies of the region. More generally, the new seismic crustal models we present in this study will be useful to better understand the tectonics, seismicity, moment tensors and strong ground motions in the region.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1232–1247
    Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: The island of Pantelleria, located in the Sicily Channel Rift Zone (Italy), has been the site of violent peralkaline silicic magmatism alternating with minor effusive to low-intensity Strombolian erup- tions of basaltic composition. The basaltic rock suites exposed on the island were sampled to in- vestigate the plumbing system dynamics through the study of chemical stratigraphy and temporal records of olivine crystals. Our petrographic and geochemical observations, together with the com- positional variability of olivine, suggest different evolutionary histories for basaltic magmas erupted over two major periods divided by the 􏰃45 ka Green Tuff (GT) eruption. Core-to-rim com- positional traverses across olivine crystals document different types of zoning. We recognized oliv- ine zones affected by Fo oscillations at very fine scales in the inner cores, rims and/or in intermedi- ate portions of crystals and used them to reconstruct the residence and passage of crystals through different magmatic environments, with P–T–ƒO2 and compositional characteristics con- strained by thermodynamic modeling. The sequence of magmatic environments evidenced by oliv- ine zoning indicate that the pre-GT volcanic period was dominated by injection at shallow crustal levels (􏰃300–200 MPa) of primitive melts, initially moving from a deep storage zone at the crust- mantle boundary. Supply of this magma significantly decreased after the GT eruption, while the dy- namics of magma transfer within the upper portion of the plumbing system were greatly enhanced. The diffusive relaxation of olivine zoning provided the timing of storage and migration of a crystal through different environments. For magmas feeding the ancient (〉45 ka) basaltic activ- ity we retrieved transfer histories that are much longer (up to 􏰃3 years) if compared with those cal- culated for the post-GT basalts (1–9 months). The compositional and temporal dataset presented in this study supports the idea that the GT eruption and the subsequent collapse of the volcanic edi- fice could have caused major changes to the internal structural setting of Pantelleria, creating more favorable conditions for the migration of magmas in the upper portions of the plumbing system.
    Description: Published
    Description: egaa05
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: JCR Journal
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: Ischia, a volcanic island located 18 miles SW of Naples (Southern Italy), is a densely populated active caldera that last erupted in AD 1302. Melt inclusions in phenocrysts of the Vateliero and Cava Nocelle shoshonite^latite eruptive products (6th to 4th centuries BC) constrain the structure and nature of the Ischia deep magmatic feeding system.Their geochemical characteristics make Ischia a natural borehole for probing the physico-chemical conditions of magma generation in mantle contaminated by slab-derived fluids or melts, largely dominated by CO2.Volatile concentrations in olivine-hosted melt inclusions require gas^melt equilibria at between 3 and 18 km depth. In agreement with what has already been demonstrated at the other neighboring Neapolitan volcanoes (Procida, Campi Flegrei caldera and Somma^Vesuvius volcanic complex), a major crystallization depth at 8^10 km has been identified.The analyzed melt inclusions provide clear evidence for CO2-dominated gas fluxing and consequent dehydration of magma batches stagnating at crustal discontinuities. Gas fluxing is further supported by selective enrichment in K owing to fluid-transfer during magma differentiation.This takes place under oxidized conditions (Fe3þ /Fe 0·3) that can be fixed by an equimolar proportion of divalent and trivalent iron in the melt if post-entrapment crystallization of the host olivine is discarded.The melt inclusion data, together with data from the literature for other Neapolitan volcanoes, show that magmatism and volcanism in the Neapolitan area, despite differences in composition and eruption dynamics, are closely linked to supercritical CO2-rich fluids. These fluids are produced by devolatilization of subducting terrigenous^pelagic metasediments and infiltrate the overlying mantle wedge, generate magmas and control their ascent up to eruption. Geochemical characteristics of Ischia and the other Neapolitan volcanoes reveal that the extent of fluid or melt contamination of the pre-subduction asthenospheric mantle wedge was similar among these volcanoes. However, differences in the isotopic compositions of the erupted magmas (more enriched in radiogenic Sr at Ischia, Campi Flegrei and Somma^Vesuvius with respect to Procida) and the amount of H2O in the plumbing system of these volcanoes (almost double at Ischia, Campi Flegrei and Somma^Vesuvius than at Procida) reflect the different flow-rates of deep slab-derived fluids or melts through the mantle wedge, which, in turn, control the amount of generated magma.The high bulk permeability of the lithosphere below Ischia, Campi Flegrei and Somma^Vesuvius, determined by the occurrence of intersecting NW^SE and NE^SW regional fault systems, favours fluid ascent and accumulation at crustal levels, with consequent larger magma production and storage than at Procida, located along the NE^SW system.
    Description: Published
    Description: 951-984
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: 3V. Proprietà chimico-fisiche dei magmi e dei prodotti vulcanici
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: 6A. Geochimica per l'ambiente e geologia medica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: CO2-fluxing ; melt inclusions ; redox state ; trachybasalts
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2021-06-21
    Description: Sulphur behaviour and variations in redox conditions during magma differentiation and degassing in the Mt Etna (Italy) volcanic system have been explored by integrating the study of olivine-hosted melt inclusions (MIs) with an experimental survey of sulphur solubility in hydrous basaltic magmas. Sulphur solubility experiments were performed at conditions relevant to the Etnean plumbing system (1200 C, 200MPa and oxygen fugacity between NNOþ0 2 and NNOþ1 7, with NNO being the nickel–nickel oxide buffer), and their results confirm the important control of oxygen fugacity (fO2) on S abundance in mafic magmas and on S partitioning between fluid and melt phases (DSfluid/melt). The observed DSfluid/melt value increases from 5164 to 14666 when fO2 decreases from NNOþ1 760 5 to NNOþ0 3. Based on the calculated DSfluid/melt and a careful selection of previously published data, an empirical model is proposed for basaltic magmas to predict the variation of DSfluid/melt values with variations in P (25–300 MPa), T (1030–1200 C) and fO2 (between NNO– 0 8 and NNOþ2 4). Olivine-hosted melt inclusions (Fo89-91) from tephra of the prehistoric (4 ka BP) sub-plinian picritic eruption, named FS (‘Fall Stratified’), have been investigated for their major element compositions, volatile contents and iron speciation (expressed as Fe3þ/PFe ratio). These primitive MIs present S content from 235677 to 34456168 ppm, and oxygen fugacity values, estimated from Fe3þ/PFe ratios, range from NNOþ0 760 2 to NNOþ1 660 2. Iron speciation has also been investigated in more evolved and volatile-poorer Etnean MIs. The only primitive melt inclusion from the Mt Spagnolo eruption (4–15 ka BP) presents a S content of 1515649ppm and an estimated fO2 of NNOþ1 460 1. The more evolved MIs (from 2002–2003, 2006, 2008–2009 and 2013 eruptions) have S content lower than 500 ppm, and their Fe3þ/RFe ratios result in fO2 between NNO– 0 960 1 and NNOþ0 460 1. Redox conditions and S behaviour in Etnean magmas during degassing and fractional crystallization were modelled coupling MELTS code with our empirical DSfluid/melt model. Starting from an FS-type magma composition and upon decrease of T and P, fractional crystallization of olivine, clinopyroxene, spinel and plagioclase causes a significant fO2 decrease. The fO2 reduction, in turn, causes a decrease in sulphur solubility and an increase in DSfluid/melt, promoting S exsolution during magma ascent, which further enhances the reduction of fO2. For the evolved MIs of 2002–2013 eruptions, magma differentiation may therefore have played a crucial role in decreasing redox conditions and favouring efficient S degassing. Differently, during the unusual FS eruption, only limited melt evolution is observed and S exsolution seems to have been triggered by a major pressure decrease accompanied by H2O and CO2 exsolution during fast magmatic ascent.
    Description: Published
    Description: egaa095
    Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: melt inclusions ; sulphur solubility experiments ; XANES ; Mt. Etna ; 04.08. Volcanology
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2020-10-16
    Description: The behaviour of tsunami waves at any location depends on the local morphology of the coasts, the encountered bathymetric features, and the characteristics of the source. However, the importance of accurately modelling the geometric properties of the causative fault for simulations of seismically induced tsunamis is rarely addressed. In this work, we analyse the effects of using two different geometric models of the subduction interface of the Calabrian Arc (southern Italy, Ionian Sea) onto the simulated tsunamis: a detailed 3-D subduction interface obtained from the interpretation of a dense network of seismic reflection profiles, and a planar interface that roughly approximates the 3-D one. These models can be thought of as representing two end-members of the level of knowledge of fault geometry. We define three hypothetical earthquake ruptures of different magnitudes (Mw 7.5, 8.0, 8.5) on each geometry. The resulting tsunami impact is evaluated at the 50-m isobath in front of coastlines of the central and eastern Mediterranean. Our results show that the source geometry imprint is evident on the tsunami waveforms, as recorded at various distances and positions relative to the source. The absolute differences in maximum and minimum wave amplitudes locally exceed one metre, and the relative differences remain systematically above 20 per cent with peaks over 40 per cent. We also observe that tsunami energy directivity and focusing due to bathymetric waveguides take different paths depending on which fault is used. Although the differences increase with increasing earthquake magnitude, there is no simple rule to anticipate the different effects produced by these end-member models of the earthquake source. Our findings suggest that oversimplified source models may hinder our fundamental understanding of the tsunami impact and great care should be adopted when making simplistic assumptions regarding the appropriateness of the planar fault approximation in tsunami studies. We also remark that the geological and geophysical 3-D fault characterization remains a crucial and unavoidable step in tsunami hazard analyses.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1805–1819
    Description: 3T. Sorgente sismica
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2021-04-14
    Description: The scaling of earthquake parameters with seismic moment and its interpretation in terms of self- similarity is still debated in the literature. We address this question by examining a worldwide compilation of corner frequency-based and elastic rebound theory (ERT)-based fault slip, area and stress drop values for earthquakes ranging in magnitude from -0.7 to 7.8. We find that corner frequency estimates of slip (and stress drop) scale differently than those inferred from the ERT approach, where the latter deviates from the generally accepted constant stress drop behavior of so- called self-similar scaling models. We also find that average slips from finite-source models are consistent with corner frequency scaling, whereas peak slip values are more consistent with the ERT scaling. The different scaling of corner frequency- and ERT-based estimates of slip and stress drop with earthquake size is interpreted in terms of heterogeneity of the rupture process. ERT-based estimates of stress drop decrease with seismic moment suggesting a self-affine behavior. Despite the inferred heterogeneity at all scales, we do not observe a clear effect on the Brune stress drop scaling with earthquake size.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1771–1781
    Description: 2T. Deformazione crostale attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquake dynamics ; Earthquake source observations ; Dynamics and mechanics of faulting ; 04.06. Seismology
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2020-11-11
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©: 2021 The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.
    Description: In this short paper we show how to use the classical maximum likelihood estimation procedure for the b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter law for catalogues with different levels of completeness. With a simple correction, that is subtracting the relative completeness level to each magnitude, it becomes possible to use the classical approach. Moreover, this correction allows to adopt the testing procedures, initially made for catalogues with a single level of completeness, for catalogues with different levels of completeness too.
    Description: Published
    Description: 337–339
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2020-12-21
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society.
    Description: The classical procedure of the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) requires a Poissonian distribution of earthquakes. Seismic catalogs follow a Poisson distribution just after the application of a declustering algorithm that leaves only one earthquake for each seismic sequence (usually the stronger, i.e. the main shock). Removing earthquakes from the seismic catalogs leads to underestimation of the annual rates of the events and consequently associate with low seismic hazard as indicated by several studies. In this study, we aim investigating the performance of two declustering methods on the Italian instrumental catalog and the impact of declustering on estimation of the b-value and on the seismic hazard analysis. To this end, first the spatial variation in the seismicity rate was estimated from the declustered catalogs using the adaptive smoothed seismicity approach, considering small earthquakes (Mw≥3.0). We then corrected the seismicity rates using new approach that allows for counting all events in the complete seismic catalog by simply changing the magnitude frequency distribution. The impact of declustering on seismic hazard analysis is illustrated using PSHA maps in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) in 2 s, with 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, for Italy. We observed that the hazard calculated from the declustered catalogs was always lower than the hazard computed using the complete catalog. These results are in agreement with previous results obtained in different parts of the world.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1174–1187
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: We have constructed a 3-D shear wave velocity (Vs) model for the crust and uppermost mantle beneath the Middle East using Rayleigh wave records obtained from ambient-noise cross-correlations and regional earthquakes. We combined one decade of data collected from 852 permanent and temporary broad-band stations in the region to calculate group-velocity dispersion curves. A compilation of 〉54 000 ray paths provides reliable group-velocity measurements for periods between 2 and 150 s. Path-averaged group velocities calculated at different periods were inverted for 2-D group-velocity maps. To overcome the problem of heterogeneous ray coverage, we used an adaptive grid parametrization for the group-velocity tomographic inversion. We then sample the period-dependent group-velocity field at each cell of a predefined grid to generate 1-D group-velocity dispersion curves, which are subsequently inverted for 1-D Vs models beneath each cell and combined to approximate the 3-D Vs structure of the area. The Vs model shows low velocities at shallow depths (5–10 km) beneath the Mesopotamian foredeep, South Caspian Basin, eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea, in coincidence with deep sedimentary basins. Shallow high-velocity anomalies are observed in regions such as the Arabian Shield, Anatolian Plateau and Central Iran, which are dominated by widespread magmatic exposures. In the 10–20 km depth range, we find evidence for a band of high velocities (〉4.0 km s–1) along the southern Red Sea and Arabian Shield, indicating the presence of upper mantle rocks. Our 3-D velocity model exhibits high velocities in the depth range of 30–50 km beneath western Arabia, eastern Mediterranean, Central Iranian Block, South Caspian Basin and the Black Sea, possibly indicating a relatively thin crust. In contrast, the Zagros mountain range, the Sanandaj-Sirjan metamorphic zone in western central Iran, the easternmost Anatolian plateau and Lesser Caucasus are characterized by low velocities at these depths. Some of these anomalies may be related to thick crustal roots that support the high topography of these regions. In the upper mantle depth range, high-velocity anomalies are obtained beneath the Arabian Platform, southern Zagros, Persian Gulf and the eastern Mediterranean, in contrast to low velocities beneath the Red Sea, Arabian Shield, Afar depression, eastern Turkey and Lut Block in eastern Iran. Our Vs model may be used as a new reference crustal model for the Middle East in a broad range of future studies.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1349-1365
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.01. Earth Interior ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2021-07-23
    Description: Marine aquaculture holds great promise for meeting increasing demand for healthy protein that is sustainably produced, but reaching necessary production levels will be challenging. The ecosystem approach to aquaculture is a framework for sustainable aquaculture development that prioritizes multiple-stakeholder participation and spatial planning. These types of approaches have been increasingly used to help guide sustainable, persistent, and equitable aquaculture planning, but most countries have difficulties in setting or meeting longer-term development goals. Scenario analysis (SA) for future planning uses similar approaches and can complement holistic methods, such as the ecosystem approach to aquaculture framework, by providing a temporal analogue to the spatially robust design. Here we define the SA approach to planning in aquaculture, outline how SA can benefit aquaculture planning, and review how this tool is already being used. We track the use of planning tools in the 20 International Council for the Exploration of the Sea member nations, with particular attention given to Norway’s development goals to 2050. We conclude that employing a combination of an ecosystem framework with scenario analyses may help identify the scale of development aquaculture goals over time, aid in evaluating the feasibility of the desired outcomes, and highlight potential social-ecological conflicts and trade-offs that may otherwise be overlooked.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2020-06-17
    Description: Petrological and geochemical (major element, trace element, Sr–Nd isotope) data for recent (〈5 kyr old) basalts that sporadically erupt on the western flank of Piton de la Fournaise (PdF), one of the most active volcanoes on Earth, allow the tracking of magma transfer and evolution from mantle to crustal depths. In the western peripheral area of PdF we document the broadly synchronous eruptions of (1) primitive olivine and olivine–clinopyroxene transitional basalts with tholeiitic affinity 30 that are closely associated in space with (2) transitional olivine basalts with alkaline affinity, and (3) hybrid lavas, intermediate between the ‘alkaline’ and the ‘tholeiitic’ end-members. The composition of the latter overlaps with that of the lavas frequently erupted from the conduit system feeding the main summit cone. AlphaMELTS modelling, and fluid inclusion and clinopyroxene barometry, constrain the conditions of magma storage at 10–30 km, and the ascent of magma from the upper 35 mantle to the shallow crustal plumbing system. Variable degrees of mantle melting, together with minor source heterogeneity and contamination with cumulate-derived partial melts, contribute to the diversity of PdF magmas. However, all these processes do not represent the dominant factors that produce the large variability we found in major element composition. Indeed, the composition of basalts erupted from PdF peripheral centers is strongly controlled by polybaric olivine–clinopyr- 40 oxene fractionation at pressures higher than 3 kbar. Crystal textures and geochemical modelling suggest that fast magma ascent is critical to prevent clinopyroxene dissolution. Conversely, longlasting magma stagnation promotes pyroxene resorption and magma differentiation. ‘Central’ eruptions occurring close to the PdF summit cone emit variably more evolved melts, which result from olivine–clinopyroxene–plagioclase differentiation at intermediate–shallow pressure (〈3 kbar and in most cases 〈1 kbar). Deep and extensive magma mixing before injection into the crustal magma conduit system, located below the summit region, results in the apparent homogeneity of basalts erupted from the central area. As regards ‘peripheral’ eruptions, deep-seated stagnation of basaltic melts and differentiation at the mantle–crust transition zone (c. 4 kbar) produces a range of 5 magma compositions. We demonstrate that rapid magma ascent from deep-seated reservoirs can bypass the central plumbing system. The eruptions of these magmas both in the central area and on the densely populated flanks have major consequences in terms of volcanic hazard at PdF.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1717–1752
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: transitional basalts ; clinopyroxene crystallization and resorption ; mantle–crust underplating
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 20
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    Oxford University Press
    In:  EPIC3The Natural History of the Crustacea, Vol. 6: Reproductive Biology, New York, U.S.A., Oxford University Press, 30 p., pp. 277-306, ISBN: 9780190688554
    Publication Date: 2021-02-24
    Description: Due to an exceptional variety of habitats, body plans, and lifestyles, crustaceans exhibit a wide array of mating systems. Some groups engage in simple, pure- search polygamous systems in which males usually search for receptive females. In other groups, males defend valuable resources to attract and/ or guard females to ensure paternity. Some species have developed highly complex systems of harem defense polygyny and monogamy, even cases of sub- and eusociality are reported. The expression of mating systems does not seem to be uniformly correlated to taxonomic affiliation, but is rather diverse within certain groups, suggesting that the evolution of mating systems is largely facilitated by the lifestyle of the species. Despite the broad range of mating systems in crustaceans, and although some groups have been studied comparably well, there remains a lack of knowledge about the behavioral and sexual biology of many species. In the light of the high diversity of lifestyles, mating systems, and habitats of certain groups, crustacean species would be ideal models to unravel the evolution of reproductive strategies and social behaviors.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Inbook , peerRev
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2020-09-01
    Description: Efforts to date have not advanced Indigenous participation, capacity building and knowledge in Arctic environmental science in Canada because Arctic environmental science has yet to acknowledge, or truly practice decolonizing research. The expanding literature on decolonizing and Indigenous research provides guidance towards these alternative research approaches, but less has been written about how you do this in practice and the potential role for non-Indigenous research partners in supporting Inuit self-determination in research. This paper describes the decolonizing methodology of a non-Indigenous researcher partner and presents a co-developed approach, called the Sikumiut model, for Inuit and non-Indigenous researchers interested in supporting Inuit self-determination. In this model the roles of Inuit and non-Indigenous research partners were redefined, with Inuit governing the research and non-Indigenous research partners training and mentoring Inuit youth to conduct the research themselves. The Sikumiut model shows how having Inuit in decision-making positions ensured Inuit data ownership, accessibility, and control over how their Inuit Qaujimajatuqangit is documented, communicated, and respected for its own scientific merit. It examines the benefits and potential to build on the existing research capacity of Inuit youth and describes the guidance and lessons learned from a non-Indigenous researcher in supporting Inuit self-determination in research. Pinasuktaujut maannamut pivaallirtittisimangimmata nunaqarqaarsimajunik ilautitauninginnik, pijunnarsivallianirmik ammalu qaujimajaujunik ukiurtartumi avatilirinikkut kiklisiniarnikkut kanata pijjutigillugu ukiurtartumi avatilirinikkut kiklisiniarnikkut ilisarsisimangimmata, uvaluunniit piliringimmata issaktausimangittunik silataanit qaujisarnirmut. Uqalimaagait issaktausimangittunit silataanit ammalu nunaqarqaarsimajut qaujisarningit piviqartittikmata tukimuagutaujunnarlutik asiagut qaujisarnikkut, kisiani titirartauqattanginnirsaukmat qanuq pilirigajarmangaata ammalu ilautitauningit nunaqarqaarsimangittut qaujisarnirmut ikajurtuilutik Inuit nangminiq qaujisaqattarnirmut. Taanna titirarsimajuq uqausiqartuq issaktausimangillutik iliqusiujumik nunaqarqaarsimangittut qaujisartiujut ammalu saqittillutik ikajurtigiiklutik pigiartittinirmik, taijaujuq sikumiut aturtanga, inungnut ammalu nunaqarqaarsimangittunut qaujisartinut pijumajunut ikajurtuilutik Inuit nangminiq qaujisarnirmut. Tavani aturtaujumi piliriaksangit Inuit ammalu nunaqarqaarsimangittut qaujisartiujut tukisinarsititaullutik, Inuit aulattillutik qaujisarnirmik ammalu nunaqarqaarsimangittut qausartit ilinniartittillutik ammalu pilimmaksaillutik makkuktunik inungnik nangminiq qaujisarunnarniarmata. Sikumiunut aturtaujuq takuksaujuq qanuq Inuit aaqiksuijiullutik Inuit pisimajiuniarlutik tinngirartaujunik, takujaujunnarningit ammalu aulatauningit qanuq inuit qaujimajatuqangit titirartaukmangaata, tusaumajjutaukmangaata ammaluikpigijaulutik kiklisiniarnikkut atuutiqarninginnik. Takunangniujuq pivaalliutaujunnartunik ammalu pirurpalliagajartunik maanna qaujisarniujumik pijunnarsiqullugit makkuktut Inuit ammalu uqausiulluni tukimuagutaujunnartut ammalu ilitausimajut nunaqarqaarsimangittunit qausartinit ikajurtuilutik inuit nangminiq qaujisarnirmut.
    Electronic ISSN: 2368-7460
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2020-08-25
    Description: A total of 344 soil cores were taken in annually cropped fields of Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario from 2011 to 2013 in areas where the field shapes, or obstacles within fields, required the driving pattern of farm operations to overlap. Soil nitrate-N concentrations in overlapping areas were 60% greater, soil Olsen-P concentrations were 23% greater, and pH was 0.5 units greater at 0–15 cm depth compared with non-overlapping areas, suggesting smaller nutrient use efficiency and potential for greater nutrient loss.
    Print ISSN: 0008-4271
    Electronic ISSN: 1918-1841
    Topics: Geosciences , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2020-08-25
    Description: Differences in soil water retention (SWR) characteristics between soil types and the factors driving those differences provide important information for land management, particularly in regions such as the Colombian Andes, which have limited water-storage infrastructure and where soils provide plant-available water and other ecosystem services. The objective of this study was to explore relationships between SWR and physical, chemical, and mineralogical properties of Andisols and Inceptisols through a case study of two watersheds in the Colombian Andes. This study identified a complex relationship between total carbon (TC), short-range order (SRO) minerals, and SWR. Both soil types had high SWR, with volumetric water content at permanent wilting point between 39% and 53%. Principal component analysis showed association of SWR with TC, SRO minerals, and % clay in both soil types. The Andisols of this study were coarse textured, allophanic (rich in allophane and imogolite — up to 17% in the B horizon), and with up to 15% TC in the A horizon. In contrast, the Inceptisols were fine textured (〉30% clay) and higher in ferrihydrite than the Andisols. The formation of organo-metallic complexes was observed in A horizons; however, TC was lower under pasture than forest in both soil types. The addition of organic matter to soils with SRO minerals, such as the soils of this study, may foster the formation of organo-metallic complexes, stabilize soil C, and enhance SWR. Consequently, both study sites may benefit from management practices that increase soil organic matter.
    Print ISSN: 0008-4271
    Electronic ISSN: 1918-1841
    Topics: Geosciences , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2020-08-25
    Description: This study investigated differences in forest structure, organic layer thickness, soil organic carbon, and permafrost depth between late successional (LS) and post fire (PF, 90 to 120 years since burn) plots under black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) on fine-textured, poorly drained lacustrine sediments in the Copper River Basin, Alaska. We found that although live stem and seedling density and organic layer thickness (OLT) was not significantly different between PF and LS plots (28 ± 7 cm and 31 ± 10 cm, respectively), soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks (30 ± 10 kg m-2 and 46 ± 12 kg m-2, respectively), and permafrost depth (90 ± 28 cm and 56 ± 12 cm, respectively) remain significantly different. OLT was linearly related to 1 m SOC stocks for LS plots but not for PF plots, and LS plots had a greater proportion of highly decomposed (humic) material in the organic layer. Soil properties on PF plots appear to be on a trajectory of recovery towards LS plots with respect to SOC stocks, permafrost depth, and organic layer composition, but remain different despite nearly 100 years since fire disturbance and therefore potentially sensitive to changes in future fire frequency or climate.
    Print ISSN: 0045-5067
    Electronic ISSN: 1208-6037
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2020-08-25
    Description: Global change-driven droughts are triggering worldwide forest dieback which are predicted to increase even further. Here, we combined genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and dendrochronological approaches to assess genetically-based individual tree vulnerability to past extreme droughts that caused massive mortality of Nothofagus dombeyi forests in northern Patagonia. We collected fresh leaves and wood cores from pairs of Healthy Crown (HC) and Partially Affected crown (PA) trees at four sites impacted by 1998, 2008 and 2014 droughts. We used dendrochronological techniques to estimate parameters in terms of growth trends due to drought and genomic analysis to assess its relationship with water stress. While 5,155 neutral loci did not discriminate PA from HC trees, a set of 33 adaptive SNPs did so, 8 of which were related to hydric stress. Association analysis between genomic variants and dendrophenotypic traits yielded 6 SNPs that were associated with a growth measure as resilience to cope with drought. Our preliminary results indicate that susceptibility to drought in N. dombeyi could be determined at the genomic level. The combination of both approaches provides a framework for the identification and analysis of candidate genes for stress response in non-model species.
    Print ISSN: 0045-5067
    Electronic ISSN: 1208-6037
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2020-08-27
    Description: The origin of the population of very massive stars observed within ∼0.4 pc of the supermassive black hole in the Galactic Centre is a mystery. Tidal forces from the black hole would likely inhibit in situ star formation whilst the youth of the massive stars would seem to exclude formation elsewhere followed by transportation (somehow) into the Galactic Centre. Here, we consider a third way to produce these massive stars from the lower mass stars contained in the nuclear stellar cluster which surrounds the supermassive black hole. A passing gas cloud can be tidally shredded by the supermassive black hole forming an accretion disc around the black hole. Stars embedded within this accretion disc will accrete gas from the disc via Bondi–Hoyle accretion, where the accretion rate on to a star, $dot{M}_star propto M_star ^2$. This super-exponential growth of accretion can lead to a steep increase in stellar masses, reaching the required 40–50 M⊙ in some cases. The mass growth rate depends sensitively on the stellar orbital eccentricities and their inclinations. The evolution of the orbital inclinations and/or their eccentricities as stars are trapped by the disc, and their orbits are circularized, will increase the number of massive stars produced. Thus accretion on to low-mass stars can lead to a top heavy stellar mass function in the Galactic Centre and other galactic nuclei. The massive stars produced will pollute the environment via supernova explosions and potentially produce compact binaries whose mergers may be detectable by the LIGO–VIRGO gravitational waves observatories.
    Print ISSN: 0035-8711
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2966
    Topics: Physics
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2020-08-27
    Description: We present a 3D semi-analytical model of self-gravitating discs, and include a prescription for dust trapping in the disc spiral arms. Using Monte Carlo radiative transfer, we produce synthetic ALMA (Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array) observations of these discs. In doing so, we demonstrate that our model is capable of producing observational predictions, and able to model real image data of potentially self-gravitating discs. For a disc to generate spiral structure that would be observable with ALMA requires that the disc’s dust mass budget is dominated by millimetre- and centimetre-sized grains. Discs in which grains have grown to the grain fragmentation threshold may satisfy this criterion; thus, we predict that signatures of gravitational instability may be detectable in discs of lower mass than has previously been suggested. For example, we find that discs with disc-to-star mass ratios as low as 0.10 are capable of driving observable spiral arms. Substructure becomes challenging to detect in discs where no grain growth has occurred or in which grain growth has proceeded well beyond the grain fragmentation threshold. We demonstrate how we can use our model to retrieve information about dust trapping and grain growth through multiwavelength observations of discs, and using estimates of the opacity spectral index. Applying our disc model to the Elias 27, WaOph 6, and IM Lup systems, we find gravitational instability to be a plausible explanation for the observed substructure in all three discs, if sufficient grain growth has indeed occurred.
    Print ISSN: 0035-8711
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2966
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2020-08-27
    Description: The star formation in molecular clouds is inefficient. The ionizing extreme-ultraviolet radiation (hν ≥ 13.6 eV) from young clusters has been considered as a primary feedback effect to limit the star formation efficiency (SFE). Here, we focus on the effects of stellar far-ultraviolet (FUV) radiation (6 eV ≤ hν ≤ 13.6 eV) during the cloud disruption stage. The FUV radiation may further reduce the SFE via photoelectric heating, and it also affects the chemical states of the gas that is not converted to stars (‘cloud remnants’) via photodissociation of molecules. We have developed a one-dimensional semi-analytical model that follows the evolution of both the thermal and chemical structure of a photodissociation region (PDR) during the dynamical expansion of an H ii region. We investigate how the FUV feedback limits the SFE, supposing that the star formation is quenched in the PDR where the temperature is above a threshold value (e.g. 100 K). Our model predicts that the FUV feedback contributes to reduce the SFEs for massive (Mcl ≳ 105 M⊙) clouds with low surface densities ($Sigma _{ m cl}lesssim 100~{ m M}_odot , { m pc}^{-2}$). Moreover, we show that a large part of the H2 molecular gas contained in the cloud remnants should be ‘CO-dark’ under the FUV feedback for a wide range of cloud properties. Therefore, the dispersed molecular clouds are potential factories of CO-dark gas, which returns into the cycle of the interstellar medium.
    Print ISSN: 0035-8711
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2020-08-31
    Description: The Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) 3π survey is a comprehensive optical imaging survey of three quarters of the sky in the grizy broad-band photometric filters. We present the methodology used in assembling the source classification and photometric redshift (photo-z) catalogue for PS1 3π Data Release 1, titled Pan-STARRS1 Source Types and Redshifts with Machine learning (PS1-STRM). For both main data products, we use neural network architectures, trained on a compilation of public spectroscopic measurements that has been cross-matched with PS1 sources. We quantify the parameter space coverage of our training data set, and flag extrapolation using self-organizing maps. We perform a Monte-Carlo sampling of the photometry to estimate photo-z uncertainty. The final catalogue contains 2,902,054,648 objects. On our validation data set, for non-extrapolated sources, we achieve an overall classification accuracy of $98.1\%$ for galaxies, $97.8\%$ for stars, and $96.6\%$ for quasars. Regarding the galaxy photo-z estimation, we attain an overall bias of =0.0005, a standard deviation of σ(Δznorm) = 0.0322, a median absolute deviation of MAD(Δznorm) = 0.0161, and an outlier fraction of $Pleft(|Delta z_{mathrm{norm}}|〉0.15 ight)=1.89\%$. The catalogue will be made available as a high-level science product via the Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes.
    Print ISSN: 0035-8711
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-2966
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2020-08-27
    Description: We present CO observations towards a sample of six H i-rich Ultradiffuse galaxies (UDGs) as well as one UDG (VLSB-A) in the Virgo Cluster with the Institut de RadioAstronomie Millimétrique (IRAM) 30-m telescope. CO J = 1–0 is marginally detected at 4σ level in AGC 122966, as the first detection of CO emission in UDGs. We estimate upper limits of molecular mass in other galaxies from the non-detection of CO lines. These upper limits and the marginal CO detection in AGC 122966 indicate low mass ratios between molecular and atomic gas masses. With the star formation efficiency derived from the molecular gas, we suggest that the inefficiency of star formation in such H i-rich UDGs is likely caused by the low efficiency in converting molecules from atomic gas, instead of low efficiency in forming stars from molecular gas.
    Print ISSN: 1745-3925
    Electronic ISSN: 1745-3933
    Topics: Physics
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2020-10-09
    Description: Diffuse nutrient pollution from agriculture has been the concern of policymakers for several decades, and yet it remains a persistent environmental issue. The current approach to mitigating the problem is predominantly via command and control regulation within the Nitrates Directive and the Water Framework Directive. This article will set out how diffuse pollution can be considered a wicked policy problem which acts as an explanation of how it has eluded the current regulatory regime. It will further establish that the traditional planning process overlooked the complexity of the problem. Finally, it will illustrate the ineffectiveness of the current regulatory framework to mitigate the problem. This will be exemplified through the legal framework of Northern Ireland.
    Print ISSN: 0952-8873
    Electronic ISSN: 1464-374X
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Law
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2020-08-31
    Description: Supermassive black holes (SMBHs) that reside at the centres of galaxies can inject vast amounts of energy into the surrounding gas and are thought to be a viable mechanism to quench star formation in massive galaxies. Here, we study the $10^{9-12.5}, mathrm{M_odot }$ stellar mass central galaxy population of the IllustrisTNG simulation, specifically the TNG100 and TNG300 volumes at z = 0, and show how the three components – SMBH, galaxy, and circumgalactic medium (CGM) – are interconnected in their evolution. We find that gas entropy is a sensitive diagnostic of feedback injection. In particular, we demonstrate how the onset of the low-accretion black hole (BH) feedback mode, realized in the IllustrisTNG model as a kinetic, BH-driven wind, leads not only to star formation quenching at stellar masses $gtrsim 10^{10.5}, mathrm{M_odot }$ but also to a change in thermodynamic properties of the (non-star-forming) gas, both within the galaxy and beyond. The IllustrisTNG kinetic feedback from SMBHs increases the average gas entropy, within the galaxy and in the CGM, lengthening typical gas cooling times from $10!-!100, mathrm{Myr}$ to $1!-!10, mathrm{Gyr}$, effectively ceasing ongoing star formation and inhibiting radiative cooling and future gas accretion. In practice, the same active galactic nucleus (AGN) feedback channel is simultaneously ‘ejective’ and ‘preventative’ and leaves an imprint on the temperature, density, entropy, and cooling times also in the outer reaches of the gas halo, up to distances of several hundred kiloparsecs. In the IllustrisTNG model, a long-lasting quenching state can occur for a heterogeneous CGM, whereby the hot and dilute CGM gas of quiescent galaxies contains regions of low-entropy gas with short cooling times.
    Print ISSN: 0035-8711
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2020-09-03
    Description: We study the stationary points of the hierarchical three body problem in the planetary limit (m1, m2 ≪ m0) at both the quadrupole and octupole orders. We demonstrate that the extension to octupole order preserves the principal stationary points of the quadrupole solution in the limit of small outer eccentricity e2 but that new families of stable fixed points occur in both prograde and retrograde cases. The most important new equilibria are those that branch off from the quadrupolar solutions and extend to large e2. The apsidal alignment of these families is a function of mass and inner planet eccentricity, and is determined by the relative directions of precession of ω1 and ω2 at the quadrupole level. These new equilibria are also the most resilient to the destabilizing effects of relativistic precession. We find additional equilibria that enable libration of the inner planet argument of pericentre in the limit of radial orbits and recover the non-linear analogue of the Laplace–Lagrange solutions in the coplanar limit. Finally, we show that the chaotic diffusion and orbital flips identified with the eccentric Kozai–Lidov mechanism and its variants can be understood in terms of the stationary points discussed here.
    Print ISSN: 0035-8711
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2020-08-31
    Description: Summary On 24th August 2016 at 01:36 UTC a ML6.0 earthquake struck several villages in central Italy, among which Accumoli, Amatrice and Arquata del Tronto. The earthquake was recorded by about 350 seismic stations, causing 299 fatalities and damage with macroseismic intensities up to 11. The maximum acceleration was observed at Amatrice station (AMT) reaching 916 cm/s2 on E-W component, with epicentral distance of 15 km and Joyner and Boore distance to the fault surface (RJB) of less than a kilometre. Motivated by the high levels of observed ground motion and damage, we generate broadband seismograms for engineering purposes by adopting a hybrid method. To infer the low frequency seismograms, we considered the kinematic slip model by Tinti et al. (2016). The high frequency seismograms were produced using a stochastic finite-fault model approach based on dynamic corner-frequency. Broadband synthetic time series were therefore obtained by merging the low and high frequency seismograms. Simulated hybrid ground motions were compared both with the observed ground motions and the ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), to explore their performance and to retrieve the region-specific parameters endorsed for the simulations. In the near-fault area we observed that hybrid simulations have a higher capability to detect near source effects and to reproduce the source complexity than the use of GMPEs. Indeed, the general good consistency found between synthetic and observed ground motion (both in the time and frequency domain), suggests that the use of regional-specific source scaling and attenuation parameters together with the source complexity in hybrid simulations improves ground motion estimations. To include the site effect in stochastic simulations at selected stations, we tested the use of amplification curves derived from HVRSs (horizontal-to-vertical response spectra) and from HVSRs (horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios) rather than the use of generic curves according to NTC-18 Italian seismic design code. We generally found a further reduction of residuals between observed and simulated both in terms of time histories and spectra.
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2020-09-03
    Description: Despite its likely importance in astrochemistry, pure rotational spectra are not observable for gas phase N2 since this molecule has no permanent dipole moment. Complexation of monomeric N2 with a cationic metal (MN2+) may be kinetically and thermodynamically favorable, and the detection of such MN2+ molecules could be useful tracers of N2 in order to probe its abundance and kinetics. Highly accurate quartic force field methods have been applied here to compute rotational and vibrational spectroscopic properties of the NaN2+ and MgN2+ molecules via a coupled cluster-based composite approach with additional corrections for post-CCSD(T) electron correlation and relativistic effects. The relative energies of various isomers have also been computed and show that both NaN2+ and MgN2+ have linear ground electronic states. At the highest level of theory, rotational constants (B0) of 4086.9 and 4106.0 MHz are predicted for NaN2+ and MgN2+, respectively, with dipole moments of 6.92 D and 4.34 D, respectively making them rotationally observable even at low concentrations. Post-CCSD(T) electron correlation corrections lower the N-N stretching frequency while relativistic corrections have a much smaller effect putting the fundamental frequencies at 2333.7 cm−1 and 2313.6 cm−1, respective of NaN2+ and MgN2+ slightly above that in N2H+. Additive corrections do not significantly change the other two vibrational modes. An anharmonic, zero-point corrected N2 dissociation energy of 7.3 and 7.0 kcal mol−1 is, respectively, reported for NaN2+ and MgN2+ suggesting possible formation of these molecules in protoplanetary disks or planetary nebulae that are metal- and nitrogen-rich.
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2020-09-01
    Description: Simulations of galaxy formation tend to place star particles in orbits seriously different from circular in numbers far larger than seem reasonable for the bulges and stellar haloes of the nearby L ∼ L* galaxies that can be examined in particularly close detail. I offer an example of how the situation might be improved: a prescription for non-Gaussian initial conditions on the scale of galaxies.
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2020-09-01
    Description: We present results from six epochs of quasi-simultaneous radio, (sub-)millimetre, infrared, optical, and X-ray observations of the black hole X-ray binary MAXI J1535−571. These observations show that as the source transitioned through the hard–intermediate X-ray state towards the soft–intermediate X-ray state, the jet underwent dramatic and rapid changes. We observed the frequency of the jet spectral break, which corresponds to the most compact region in the jet where particle acceleration begins (higher frequencies indicate closer to the black hole), evolves from the infrared band into the radio band (decreasing by ≈3 orders of magnitude) in less than a day. During one observational epoch, we found evidence of the jet spectral break evolving in frequency through the radio band. Estimating the magnetic field and size of the particle acceleration region shows that the rapid fading of the high-energy jet emission was not consistent with radiative cooling; instead, the particle acceleration region seems to be moving away from the black hole on approximately dynamical time-scales. This result suggests that the compact jet quenching is not caused by local changes to the particle acceleration, rather we are observing the acceleration region of the jet travelling away from the black hole with the jet flow. Spectral analysis of the X-ray emission shows a gradual softening in the few days before the dramatic jet changes, followed by a more rapid softening ∼1–2 d after the onset of the jet quenching.
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2020-08-27
    Description: A 42-year sequence (1976–2017) of Scots pine tree diameter measurements using band dendrometers at the Aukštaitija National Park (Lithuania) study site was analysed. We have evaluated the intra- and inter annual growth dynamics of tree’s diameters and their response to meteorological forcing, as well as the long-term annual and monthly growth-rate changes in tree diameter in the study area. On average, the largest tree-diameter growth was found to have taken place during the month of June (35% of the annual increase). After June 24, the diameter growth rate decreased very strongly. The pine growth in May and August was mostly affected by the temperature of the previous month. The precipitation amount was the main driver that determined tree growth in June‒August. Heavy precipitation events had the largest impact on short-term tree-diameter increases. As a consequence of air temperature rise, we have determined the largest positive Scots pine tree diameter growth-rate changes in May and June during the period from 1976 to 2017.
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2020-09-01
    Description: Summary We explore here the benefits of using constraints from seismic tomography in gravity data inversion and how inverted density distributions can be improved by doing so. The methodology is applied to a real field case in which we reconstruct the density structure of the Pyrenees along a southwest-northeast transect going from the Ebro basin in Spain to the Arzacq basin in France. We recover the distribution of densities by inverting gravity anomalies under constraints coming from seismic tomography. We initiate the inversion from a prior density model obtained by scaling a pre-existing compressional seismic velocity Vp model using a Nafe-Drake relationship : the Vp model resulting from a full-waveform inversion of teleseismic data. Gravity data inversions enforce structural similarities between Vp and density by minimizing the norm of the cross-gradient between the density and Vp models. We also compare models obtained from 2.5D and 3D inversions. Our results demonstrate that structural constraints allow us to better recover the density contrasts close to the surface and at depth, without degrading the gravity data misfit. The final density model provides valuable information on the geological structures and on the thermal state and composition of the western region of the Pyrenean lithosphere.
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  • 40
  • 41
    Publication Date: 2020-09-18
    Description: Summary The relatively short duration of the early stages of subduction results in a poor geological record, limiting our understanding of this critical stage. Here, we utilize a 2D numerical model of incipient subduction, that is the stage after a plate margin has formed with a slab tip that extends to a shallow depth and address the conditions under which subduction continues or fails. We assess energy budgets during the evolution from incipient subduction to either a failed or successful state, showing how the growth of potential energy, and slab pull, is resisted by the viscous dissipation within the lithosphere and the mantle. The role of rheology is also investigated, as deformation mechanisms operating in the crust and mantle facilitate subduction. In all models, the onset of subduction is characterized by high lithospheric viscous dissipation and low convergence velocities, whilst successful subduction sees the mantle become the main area of viscous dissipation. In contrast, failed subduction is defined by the lithospheric viscous dissipation exceeding the lithospheric potential energy release rate and velocities tend towards zero. We show that development of a subduction zone depends on the convergence rate, required to overcome thermal diffusion and to localise deformation along the margin. The results propose a minimum convergence rate of ∼ 0.5 cm yr−1 is required to reach a successful state, with 100 km of convergence over 20 Myr, emphasizing the critical role of the incipient stage.
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2020-09-22
    Description: Summary Although many studies have revealed that the atmospheric effects of electromagnetic wave propagation (including ionospheric and tropospheric water vapor) have serious impacts on Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurement results, atmospheric corrections have not been thoroughly and comprehensively investigated in many well-known cases of InSAR focal mechanism solutions, which means there is no consensus on whether atmospheric effects will affect the InSAR focal mechanism solution. Moreover, there is a lack of quantitative assessment on how much the atmospheric effect affects the InSAR focal mechanism solution. In this paper, we emphasized that it was particularly important to assess the impact of InSAR ionospheric and tropospheric corrections on the underground nuclear explosion modeling quantitatively. Therefore, we investigated the 4th North Korea (NKT-4) underground nuclear test using ALOS-2 liters-band SAR images. Because the process of the underground nuclear explosion was similar to the volcanic magma source activity, we modeled the ground displacement using the Mogi model. Both the ionospheric and tropospheric phase delays in the interferograms were investigated. Furthermore, we studied how the ionosphere and troposphere phase delays could bias the estimation of Mogi source parameters. The following conclusions were drawn from our case study: The ionospheric delay correction effectively mitigated the long-scale phase ramp in the full-frame interferogram, the standard deviation decreased from 1.83 cm to 0.85 cm compared to the uncorrected interferogram. The uncorrected estimations of yield and depth were 8.44 kt and 370.33 m, respectively. Compared to the uncorrected estimations, the ionospheric correction increased the estimation of yield and depth to 9.43 kt and 385.48 m while the tropospheric correction slightly raised them to 8.78 kt and 377.24 m. There were no obvious differences in the location estimations among the four interferograms. When both corrections were applied, the overall standard deviation was 1.16 cm, which was even larger than the ionospheric corrected interferogram. We reported the source characteristics of NKT-4 based on the modeling results derived from the ionospheric corrected interferogram. The preferred estimation of NKT-4 was a Mogi source located at 129°04′22.35‘E, 41°17′54.57″N buried at 385.48 m depth. The cavity radius caused by the underground explosion was 22.02 m. We reported the yield estimation to be 9.43 kt. This study showed that for large-scale natural deformation sources such as volcanoes and earthquakes, atmospheric corrections would be more significant, but even if the atmospheric signal did not have much complexity, the corrections should not be ignored.
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2020-10-01
    Description: Factors that limit the range expansion of introduced species can offer insights into the basic ecology of these species and inform conservation of associated endemic species. North American red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus (Erxleben, 1777)) were recently introduced to the island of Newfoundland, Canada, where they have been implicated in the decline of two endemic bird subspecies. During the summers of 2016 (following conifer masting) and 2017 (following nonmasting), we conducted surveys with 1960 point counts and playback to assess red squirrel distribution and habitat use across a 257 km2 montane landscape in western Newfoundland. We used generalized additive models with stepwise model selection to assess the relationship between land cover and red squirrel occurrence each summer. Red squirrels were most common at low elevations and were not detected at elevations above ∼500 m. Their occurrence was negatively associated with the presence of water, coniferous scrub, and 10- to 30-year-old fir–spruce but positively associated with the presence of 30- to 70-year-old fir–spruce and 〉70-year-old fir. Red squirrel presence was related to more land cover variables in 2016, after a masting year. The absence of red squirrels from forests at higher elevations apparently resulted from lack of suitable habitat rather than incomplete range expansion. Climate- or silviculture-induced changes in vegetation may alter mid- and upper-elevation habitat suitability.
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2020-09-01
    Description: SUMMARY Self-consistent modelling of magmatic systems is challenging as the melt continuously changes its chemical composition upon crystallization, which may affect the mechanical behaviour of the system. Melt extraction and subsequent crystallization create new rocks while depleting the source region. As the chemistry of the source rocks changes locally due to melt extraction, new calculations of the stable phase assemblages are required to track the rock evolution and the accompanied change in density. As a consequence, a large number of isochemical sections of stable phase assemblages are required to study the evolution of magmatic systems in detail. As the state-of-the-art melting diagrams may depend on nine oxides as well as pressure and temperature, this is a 10-D computational problem. Since computing a single isochemical section (as a function of pressure and temperature) may take several hours, computing new sections of stable phase assemblages during an ongoing geodynamic simulation is currently computationally intractable. One strategy to avoid this problem is to pre-compute these stable phase assemblages and to create a comprehensive database as a hyperdimensional phase diagram, which contains all bulk compositions that may emerge during petro-thermomechanical simulations. Establishing such a database would require repeating geodynamic simulations many times while collecting all requested compositions that may occur during a typical simulation and continuously updating the database until no additional compositions are required. Here, we describe an alternative method that is better suited for implementation on large-scale parallel computers. Our method uses the entries of an existing preliminary database to estimate future required chemical compositions. Bulk compositions are determined within boundaries that are defined manually or through principal component analysis in a parameter space consisting of clustered database entries. We have implemented both methods within a massively parallel computational framework while utilizing the Gibbs free energy minimization program Perple_X. Results show that our autonomous approach increases the resolution of the thermodynamic database in compositional regions that are most likely required for geodynamic models of magmatic systems.
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2020-08-29
    Description: The solid material of protoplanetary discs forms an asymmetric pattern around a low-mass planet ($M_mathrm{p}le 10, mathrm{ M}_oplus$) due to the combined effect of dust–gas interaction and the gravitational attraction of the planet. Recently, it has been shown that although the total solid mass is negligible compared to that of gas in protoplanetary discs, a positive torque can be emerged by a certain size solid species. The torque magnitude can overcome that of gas which may result in outward planetary migration. In this study, we show that the accretion of solid species by the planet strengthens the magnitude of solid torque being either positive or negative. We run two-dimensional, high-resolution ($1.5, m {K}imes 3, m {K}$) global hydrodynamic simulations of an embedded low-mass planet in a protoplanetary disc. The solid material is handled as a pressureless fluid. Strong accretion of well-coupled solid species by an $M_mathrm{p}lesssim 0.3, mathrm{ M}_oplus$ protoplanet results in the formation of such a strongly asymmetric solid pattern close to the planet that the positive solid torque can overcome that of gas by two times. However, the accretion of solids in the pebble regime results in increased magnitude negative torque felt by protoplanets and strengthened positive torque for Earth-mass planets. For $M_mathrm{p}ge 3, mathrm{ M}_oplus$ planets, the magnitude of the solid torque is positive, however, independent of the accretion strength investigated. We conclude that the migration of solid accreting planets can be substantially departed from the canonical type-I prediction.
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2020-10-01
    Description: Ditch network maintenance promotes forest growth in drained peatland forests but increases nutrient and sediment loads, which are detrimental to water quality. Society needs to balance the harvest revenue from improved forest growth against deteriorating water quality. We examine socially optimal even-aged forest management in drained peatlands when harvesting and ditch network maintenance cause nutrient and sediment loading. The means to reduce loading include establishing overland flow fields and abstaining from ditch network maintenance. We characterize this choice analytically in a rotation framework and examine, in a numerical model, the key factors affecting the choice of forest management and water protection measures. We choose a drained peatland forest site located in northeastern Finland in the vicinity of ecologically vulnerable forest headwater streams. On the given drained forest site, we find a set of parameters under which implementing ditch network maintenance is privately but not socially optimal.
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2020-09-01
    Description: The coma of comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko has been probed by the Rosetta spacecraft and shows a variety of different molecules. The ROSINA COmet Pressure Sensor and the Double Focusing Mass Spectrometer provide in situ densities for many volatile compounds including the 14 gas species H2O, CO2, CO, H2S, O2, C2H6, CH3OH, H2CO, CH4, NH3, HCN, C2H5OH, OCS, and CS2. We fit the observed densities during the entire comet mission between 2014 August and 2016 September to an inverse coma model. We retrieve surface emissions on a cometary shape with 3996 triangular elements for 50 separated time intervals. For each gas, we derive systematic error bounds and report the temporal evolution of the production, peak production, and the time-integrated total production. We discuss the production for the two lobes of the nucleus and for the Northern and Southern hemispheres. Moreover, we provide a comparison of the gas production with the seasonal illumination.
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2020-09-01
    Description: We use KiDS weak lensing data to measure variations in mean halo mass as a function of several key galaxy properties (namely stellar colour, specific star formation rate, Sérsic index, and effective radius) for a volume-limited sample of GAMA galaxies in a narrow stellar mass range [M* ∼ (2–5) × 1010 M⊙]. This mass range is particularly interesting, inasmuch as it is where bimodalities in galaxy properties are most pronounced, and near to the break in both the galaxy stellar mass function and the stellar-to-halo mass relation (SHMR). In this narrow mass range, we find that both size and Sérsic index are better predictors of halo mass than either colour or SSFR, with the data showing a slight preference for Sérsic index. In other words, we find that mean halo mass is more tightly correlated with galaxy structure than either past star formation history or current star formation rate. Our results lead to an approximate lower bound on the dispersion in halo masses among log M* ≈ 10.5 galaxies: We find that the dispersion is ≳0.3 dex. This would imply either that offsets from the mean SHMR are closely coupled to size/structure or that the dispersion in the SHMR is larger than what past results have suggested. Our results thus provide new empirical constraints on the relationship between stellar and halo mass assembly at this particularly interesting mass range.
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  • 49
    Publication Date: 2020-09-01
    Description: We perform a comparative study between the only radio-detected Type I superluminous supernova (SLSN) PTF10hgi, and the most active repeating fast radio burst FRB121102. This study has its root in the hypothesized FRB-SLSN connection that states that magnetars born in SLSN can power FRBs. The wide-band spectrum (0.6–15 GHz) of PTF10hgi presented here, provides strong evidence for the magnetar wind nebular origin of the radio emission. The same spectrum also enables us to make robust estimates of the radius and the magnetic field of the radio-emitting region and demonstrates that the nebula is powered by the rotational energy of the magnetar. This spectrum is then compared with that of FRB121102 which we extend down to 400 MHz using archival data. The newly added measurements put very tight constraint on the emission models of the compact persistent source associated with FRB121102. We find that while both sources can be powered by the rotational energy of the underlying magnetar, the average energy injection rate is much higher in FRB121102. Hence, we hypothesize that, if PTF10hgi is indeed emitting fast radio bursts, those will be much weaker energetically than those from FRB121102.
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  • 50
    Publication Date: 2020-09-01
    Description: We propose a new intuitive metric for evaluating the tension between two experiments, and apply it to several data sets. While our metric is non-optimal, if evidence of tension is detected, this evidence is robust and easy to interpret. Assuming a flat ΛCDM cosmological model, we find that there is a modest 2.2σ tension between the DES Year 1 results and the Planck measurements of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). This tension is driven by the difference between the amount of structure observed in the late-time Universe and that predicted from fitting the Planck data, and appears to be unrelated to the tension between Planck and local estimates of the Hubble rate. In particular, combining DES, Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO), Big-Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN), and supernovae (SNe) measurements recovers a Hubble constant and sound horizon consistent with Planck, and in tension with local distance-ladder measurements. If the tension between these various data sets persists, it is likely that reconciling all current data will require breaking the flat ΛCDM model in at least two different ways: one involving new physics in the early Universe, and one involving new late-time Universe physics.
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  • 51
    Publication Date: 2020-10-01
    Description: Shadow fractions can be overestimated because of topographic shadows, which can occupy a significant area on aerial photographs of mountainous terrain. In this study, we first used high-dynamic-range (HDR) image analysis techniques to extract the original canopy shadow from the topographic shadows on aerial photographs. Subsequently, we applied the shadow fraction method to estimate selected forest attributes (stand height, basal area, and stem volume). In this paper, we discuss the effects of tree shadow fraction normalization, auxiliary spectral information, and forest type on forest attribute estimation. HDR image analysis successfully extracted canopy shadow information from topographic shadows. The tree shadow fraction normalization method had no obvious effect. The shadow fraction enhanced spectral information to estimate stand attributes. Using shadow fractions resulted in better estimates of stand height for mixed-hardwood forest ([Formula: see text] = 0.45), basal area for mixed-hardwood forest ([Formula: see text] = 0.50), and stem volume for conifer–hardwood forest ([Formula: see text] = 0.43). This difference in estimated results is related to the shade patterns produced by stand structures in the different forest types.
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  • 52
    Publication Date: 2020-10-01
    Description: Forest supply chain planning must deal with many natural disturbance uncertainties such as fires, insects, and windthrow. One important consideration is wood infestation by invasive insects, as it causes environmental and economic harm. An example of invasive insects in Eastern Canada is the spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens)), which is the most destructive insect in North America’s conifer stands. In 2017, more than 5 million ha of forest were defoliated by spruce budworm in Quebec. Repeated defoliation causes tree mortality, reduction of growth rates, and reduced lumber quality. Consequently, different wood qualities with greatly varied values are found in the forest. Changes in the outbreak intensity impact wood values throughout the forest. One of the common actions to mitigate the economic and environmental damages is salvage harvesting. However, because of the large uncertainties and lack of detailed information, it is a difficult problem to model. We propose a multistage stochastic mixed-integer programming model for harvest scheduling under various outbreak intensities. The objective is to maximize revenues of wood value minus logistic costs while satisfying demand for wood in the industry. The results show that when there is an outbreak throughout the forest, the priority for salvage harvesting is to focus on forest areas with the lowest level of infestation.
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  • 53
    Publication Date: 2020-08-01
    Description: Simple sequence repeat (SSR) and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes on the same plant samples of Chrysolepis chrysophylla (Douglas ex Hook.) Hjelmq. (Fagaceae; golden chinquapin) from 22 sites were used to determine genetic diversity and population structure. One site of C. sempervirens (Kellogg) Hjelmq. allowed interspecific vs. intraspecific comparisons. SSRs and SNPs yielded many similar results. Among-site variation contributed 13% to 17% of the genetic variation and Fst estimates of 0.14 to 0.17 were in the range expected among Fagaceae species rather than among populations within a species. The northern sites tended to group separately on the first two axes of multivariate scatterplots from southern sites. Sites in two geographically isolated areas were divergent: (i) the Hood Canal, Washington population was relatively more genetically distant from other golden chinquapin sites than was our C. sempervirens site; (ii) three coastal southern California sites were moderately diverged. The Hood Canal site had a negative inbreeding coefficient, fewer alleles, lower heterozygosity, and differed from the Skamania County, Washington site as well as all other sites. Hood Canal trees are distinguished by disjunct geography and by these molecular results. This suggests that the golden chinquapin near Hood Canal be treated as a management unit, and potential conservation actions are discussed.
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  • 54
    Publication Date: 2020-07-17
    Description: The gravity model was used in this paper to clarify the influencing factors of the export value of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) for Vietnam from 2003 to 2017. The estimates of this model indicate the importance of the size of economies, distance, common borders, exchange rates, average forest area, natural forest closing (NFC) policy of the Vietnamese government, sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS), and the interaction of SPS and importers’ GDP (SPS-GDP) as determinants of NTFP export of Vietnam. The main result of this study is the distinct and contradictory effect of NFC policy and SPS measures. While, the NFC policy increase the value of Vietnam's NTFP exports, SPS measures significantly decrease the exportation. Using the SPS-GDP interaction variable yields a noticeable result: the negative impact of SPS on NTFP trade decreases with increasing income of NTFP importers. Furthermore, the NFC needs to continue to implement policies to increase investments in the NTFPs trade, increase the quality of NTFP products from planting, harvesting, to processing, to meet the requirements of future importers. The findings offer several implications both in theory and in practice for trade policies, economic development theory based on Vietnam's forest resources.
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  • 55
    Publication Date: 1983-12-01
    Description: The pine-wood nematode, Bursaphelenchusxylophilus (Steiner and Buhrer), was most commonly extracted from Cerambycidae emerging from nematode-infested pines in Minnesota and Wisconsin during 1981 and 1982. The greatest number of nematodes were extracted from Monochamusscutellatus (Say) and Monochamuscarolinensis (Olivier). Low numbers of B. xylophilus were found in some buprestids but no nematodes were found in the curulionid and scolytid beetles examined. Two species of Cerambycidae, Monochamusmannorator (Kiby.) and M. scutellatus were associated with B. xylophilus from balsam fir in Minnesota. Bursaphelenchusxylophilus from insects associated with balsam fir were morphologically different from insects associated with pine. Dauer larvae of B. xylophilus were concentrated in the thoracic segments of M. scutellatus and Monochamusmutator (Lec.) examined. Bursaphelenchusxylophilus was transmitted to twigs during maturation feeding and to logs during oviposition by M. carolinensis, M. mutator, and M. scutellatus.
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  • 56
    Publication Date: 1983-12-01
    Description: Alnusrubra Bong, dominates the first 65 – 80 years of a sere that is initiated naturally on the terraces of the Hoh River. Stands of 14, 24, and 65 years were studied to determine to what extent the Alnus stage enriched the nitrogen inventory of the site. Bare sandbars deposited by the river had a mean of 783 kg/ha nitrogen. Alnus communities caused an increase in the nitrogen inventory so that, by 65 years, total community nitrogen was 4659 kg/ha, soils held 3594 kg/ha N in the upper 45 cm, and Alnus trees held 942 kg/ha N. The nitrogen contents of the soil, Alnus wood, bark, and branches, grasses, total aboveground biomass, total belowground biomass, and sticks less than 1 cm diameter all showed significant increases from 14 to 65 years. The A. rubra stage is an important link in the nutrient inventory between unvegetated, recently deposited sandbars and the climax coniferous forests dominated by Tsugaheterophylla (Raf.) Sarg. and Piceasitchensis (Bong.) Carr.
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  • 57
    Publication Date: 2020-08-01
    Description: Forest management, characterized in many northern countries by the predominance of clear cutting and growing even-aged and -sized trees, has simplified the structure of boreal forests. Consequences include alterations in cultural ecosystem services such as forest attractiveness, i.e., combined aesthetic and recreational values. Continuous-cover forestry might mitigate these effects through the use of selection and gap cutting, but these methods have been little studied, particularly from the attractiveness viewpoint. We used photo surveys to assess Finnish citizens’ perceptions of attractiveness of in-stand scenery of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests logged using different methods. (i) The attractiveness scores, given by respondents, declined steadily from unharvested forest through continuous-cover methods to seed-tree and clear-cut methods. (ii) Respondents with a negative attitude to forest management gave lower scores than respondents with a positive attitude, but the declining slopes of attractiveness against logging intensity were similar. (iii) In unharvested and less intensively managed stands, summer photos received higher scores than corresponding winter photos. (iv) Background variables (gender, education, living environment, memberships in recreational or nature NGOs, forestry profession, and forest ownership) had negligible effects on the scores. We recommend the use of continuous-cover logging methods in settlement and recreational areas.
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  • 58
    Publication Date: 2020-09-01
    Description: The world’s forests are highly fragmented by linear disturbances, and many forests have failed to recover decades after abandonment. Lack of recovery is common in unproductive forests, such as treed peatlands, because of conditions that limit tree growth, including simplification of microtopography (loss of microsites). The persistence of these features affects biodiversity, but of particular concern in Canada is the detrimental effects on threatened woodland caribou. Although natural regeneration of trees in peatlands occurs in some places, it is not an effective recovery strategy for restoring the habitat of woodland caribou. This has led to restoration activities with costs exceeding CAD$12 500/km. However, current restoration does not consider wildfires, which can destroy planted trees but also initiate early seral conditions that favor natural regeneration. Here we compared tree regeneration on seismic lines and adjacent forest controls for burnt (75 sites) and unburnt (68 sites) treed peatlands in northeast Alberta, Canada. Tree regeneration (stems with a DBH 〈 1 cm/ha) varied from 28 500 in burnt lines, 11 440 in unburnt lines, and 18 210 in burnt forest, to 9520 in unburnt forest. Wildfires promoted denser regeneration in sites with a greater proportion of serotinous species and water table depth. Microtopography and terrain wetness explained regeneration on burnt lines, but not unburnt lines. In burnt and unburnt lines, sunlight, microtopography, and depth of water table most affected tree regeneration patterns.
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  • 59
    Publication Date: 2020-05-01
    Description: Because of the very high complexity of modern optimization models based on single trees, uncertainties are often disregarded. In this study, we present a modelling approach that allows partial harvesting but is still simple enough to consider risk. Our modelling approach investigates whether the inclusion of timber price uncertainty influences the harvesting schedule. The model considers positive growth response to the density reduction that follows harvesting. Testing the impact of uncertainty, we define the discounted net revenues of each harvest operation as random variables. We compare harvest scheduling both with and without the inclusion of uncertainty. We first model growth response based on a partial-harvest schedule, without integrating uncertainty from timber price fluctuations. The results show that harvesting tree cohorts at different times is financially optimal. We run the same model again, including the risk of timber price fluctuations. The inclusion of risk leads to slightly greater differences in recommended harvest timings. Because of the small difference observed, we conclude that it is unlikely that risk arising from fluctuating timber prices would strongly affect the results for more complex forest economic models concerning the optimal harvest schedules.
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  • 60
    Publication Date: 1982-06-01
    Description: Flooding for 30 days induced several changes in Quercusmacrocarpa Michx. seedlings, with stomatal closure among the earliest responses. Stomata remained more closed in flooded than in unflooded plants during the entire experimental period. Leaf water potential was consistently higher in flooded than in unflooded plants. Other responses to flooding included acceleration of ethylene production by stems; formation of hypertrophied lenticels on submerged portions of stems; growth inhibition, with greatest reduction in roots; and formation of a few adventitious roots on submerged portions of the stem above the soil line. Some of the morphological responses to flooding, especially formation of hypertrophied lenticels, appeared to be associated with increased ethylene production. Quercusmacrocarpa seedlings adapted poorly to flooding as shown by failure of stomata to reopen after an early period of flooding and low capacity for production of adventitious roots. The much greater inhibition of root growth than shoot growth by flooding will reduce drought tolerance after floodwaters recede.
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  • 61
    Publication Date: 2020-09-01
    Description: Once dominant across the United States (US) Southeastern Coastal Plain, the longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) ecosystem covers a fraction of its historic geographic range. Restoration efforts have largely occurred on public lands, while most private forests feature alternative pine species. A better understanding of public interest in ecological restoration is critical to sustained efforts and successes. This research examines both forest landowner and general public interest in longleaf pine restoration. Results contribute to research on the social dimensions of ecological restoration, much of which has focused on small-scale projects rather than landscape-scale initiatives. In addition, this study addresses the lack of knowledge regarding factors driving attitudes towards ecological restoration other than demographic and psychometric variables. We employed a telephone survey of 2700 participants across eight states in the southeastern US in the historical range of longleaf pine. A majority of respondents supported restoration as a general goal and were supportive of the use of prescribed fire as a restoration practice. Place attachment, knowledge about longleaf pine, and age were among the significant predictors of restoration support. Findings have implications for future research focusing on sociocultural influences of restoration projects, as well as expanded public support for restoration of fire-maintained ecosystems.
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  • 62
    Publication Date: 2020-09-01
    Description: Coarse woody debris (CWD) in the form of logs, downed wood, stumps and large tree limbs is an important structural habitat feature for many small mammal species, including the American marten (Martes americana). At a long-term experimental trial in northern temperate hemlock-cedar forests of British Columbia, Canada, we analysed the impact of varying amounts of overstory basal area retention: 0% (clearcut), 40%, 70%, and 100% (unharvested) on CWD volume, decay class, and inputs from windthrow over 27 years. We used CWD attributes (diameter, length, decay class, and height above the ground) known to be favourable for martens to create an index for assessing the impact of harvesting intensity on CWD habitat features. Stands with 70% retention had CWD attributes that resulted in CWD habitat features similar to unharvested stands. Clearcuts contained pieces that were smaller, more decayed, and closer to the ground, which contributed to a habitat that was less valuable, compared with stands that had higher retention. Over the 27-year period, windthrown trees were the majority of CWD inputs, and volume change was positively related to percent retention. Our results highlight that forest management influences CWD size and input dynamics over multiple decades, and the need for consideration of these impacts when undertaking long-term multiple-use forestry planning.
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  • 63
    Publication Date: 2020-07-01
    Description: Fire is an important disturbance agent in the boreal forests of China. The aggressive fire suppression policy of China since 1988 has resulted in a large financial investment in support of fire brigade capabilities and the maintenance of fire management infrastructure. We developed a spatially explicit burn probability (BP) model to evaluate the effectiveness of improved fire management in Daxing’anling, China. The BP model can emulate the burn probability of the forest landscape by simulating daily wildfire occurrences, spread, and suppression for simulated years. Two scenarios were used for fire simulations in this study. The base scenario used the infrastructure data and parameters of fire suppression capability from the 1968–1987 period, and the intensive scenario used the data and parameters from the 1988–2012 period. The simulated annual burned areas for 1968–2012 showed a fluctuating trend similar to the historical fire records. Compared with the base scenario, the burn probability decreased by 73.6% under the intensive scenario, which suggests that improved fire management could significantly reduce the burn probability. This study shows that the BP model can model the effects of fire management activities on the forest landscape level and evaluate the effectiveness of fire management strategies or management measures.
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  • 64
    Publication Date: 2020-07-01
    Description: The impact of climate change on tree stability is often associated with a higher risk of windthrow due to higher frequency and greater magnitude of extreme climatic conditions. Higher lateral loads due to an increase in maximum wind and rainfall reduce tree anchorage because of a decrease in soil matric suction and consequently the overall strength in the system of trunk, root, and soil. This study compared the mechanical response of trees with different root architectures using static loading tests conducted in the field and numerical analysis of laser-scanned root systems. For this case, mature trees of Khaya senegalensis (Desr.) A. Juss., Samanea saman (Jacq.) Merr., and Syzygium grande (Wight) Wight ex Walp. were tested and analyzed. The root system models consisted of root system architectures obtained using 3-D laser scanning. A parametric analysis was conducted by varying the modulus of elasticity of the soil (Es) from 2.5 to 25 MPa, and the results were compared with those of the static loading tests to obtain the overall mechanical responses of the root–soil systems. The results showed important dependencies of the mechanical responses of the root–soil system on the root architecture in withstanding the lateral load. The numerical models also allowed estimation of the effective leeward and windward anchorage zones with different soil elastic moduli and rooting architectures to define the extent of the tree root protection zones.
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  • 65
    Publication Date: 2020-07-01
    Description: Habitat loss is one of the main consequences of landscape transformation by humans. Monitoring biodiversity changes in areas under different management strategies is fundamental for species conservation. Our study is the first to assess the role of forest disturbance history on spider (Araneae) biodiversity in the westernmost portion of the Atlantic Forest. We analyzed taxonomic and functional aspects of spider assemblages in understories in a large forest fragment in southwestern Brazil. Spiders were sampled in five 30 m × 5 m plots over three seasons in three areas with different management histories: clear-cutting, selective logging, or native plots. We also characterized tree basal area, tree density, and canopy openness. The clear-cut plots showed more canopy openness and low habitat heterogeneity due to the high density of one pioneer native tree species. Forest structure in selective logging and native plots was similar. Spider richness, abundance, and functional richness were affected only by the season. Species composition also differed among the areas depending on the season. The abundance of web-building species was mainly associated with clear-cut areas in winter and spring. These results highlight the importance of natural regeneration in the Atlantic Forest after disturbance for the conservation of regional spider biodiversity.
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  • 66
    Publication Date: 2020-07-01
    Description: In Europe, mixed mountain forests, primarily comprised of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), silver fir (Abies alba Mill.), and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), cover about 10 × 106 ha at elevations between ∼600 and 1600 m a.s.l. These forests provide invaluable ecosystem services. However, the growth of these forests and the competition among their main species are expected to be strongly affected by climate warming. In this study, we analyzed the growth development of spruce, fir, and beech in moist mixed mountain forests in Europe over the last 300 years. Based on tree-ring analyses on long-term observational plots, we found for all three species (i) a nondecelerating, linear diameter growth trend spanning more than 300 years; (ii) increased growth levels and trends, the latter being particularly pronounced for fir and beech; and (iii) an elevation-dependent change of fir and beech growth. Whereas in the past, the growth was highest at lower elevations, today’s growth is superior at higher elevations. This spatiotemporal pattern indicates significant changes in the growth and interspecific competition at the expense of spruce in mixed mountain forests. We discuss possible causes, consequences, and silvicultural implications of these distinct growth changes in mixed mountain forests.
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  • 67
    Publication Date: 1983-10-01
    Description: Root elongation of greenhouse-grown Alaskan taiga tree seedlings increased with increasing root temperature in all six species examined and was most temperature sensitive in warm-adapted aspen (Populustremuloides Michx.). Root elongation was slower in fine than large roots and in black spruce (Piceamariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) was less temperature sensitive in fine than in large roots. Root elongation in the laboratory was slowest in black spruce, which has an inherently slow growth rate, and most rapid in poplar (Populusbalsamifera L.) and aspen, which grow more rapidly. In contrast, field root elongation rates tended to be highest in black spruce from cold wet sites, suggesting that site factors other than soil temperature (e.g., moisture) predominated over genetic differences among species in determining field root elongation rates. The seasonal pattern of root elongation was closely correlated with soil temperature and reached maximum rates in July for all tree species (except aspen medium-sized roots). Most roots of each species were in the top 20 cm of soil. However, root growth penetrated to greater depth in warm compared with cold sites. Root biomass in a 130-year black spruce forest (1230 g/m2) comprised only 15% of total tree biomass. Root biomass of 25-year aspen and 60-year poplar sites (517 and 5385 g/m2, respectively) comprised a greater proportion (57% in poplar) of total tree biomass than in spruce.
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  • 68
    Publication Date: 1983-10-01
    Description: The patterns of translocation of carbon in different-age tissues of four common moss species in a black spruce (Piceamariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) dominated forest near Fairbanks, Alaska, were studied by 14C labelling and carbohydrate analysis. A simple, in-vial combustion technique was developed for combustion of small (
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  • 69
    Publication Date: 2020-02-01
    Description: To assess the impacts of uncertainty and environmental objectives on the configuration of timber supply networks, we develop a generic multi-period, mixed-integer fuzzy linear programming model with demand uncertainty and two objectives of minimizing total transportation cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We then use the triangular fuzzy number method to define the uncertain demands and convert the model into its equivalent auxiliary crisp counterpart. To derive Pareto solutions more efficiently, we propose the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) to solve the model. Finally, we apply the model framework and solution method to a real-world case of regional timber supply in Fujian, China, to demonstrate their applicability. The simulation results of the model show that trade-offs exist between total cost and GHG emissions and that the proper selection of the number and locations of distribution centers can help reduce both the cost and GHG emissions. Demand uncertainty and supply fluctuations across different time periods can increase the cost and GHG emissions. Our empirical results provide useful insights into the design and management of regional timber supply networks, and our generic model is applicable to the analysis of regional supply networks of other products or materials besides timber.
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  • 70
    Publication Date: 1982-12-01
    Description: Water stress of subalpine conifer species may be measured with the pressure chamber after several hours of tissue storage. Tissue samples stored in cool, humid vials exhibited very little change in xylem pressure potential over a 4-h period. However, xylem pressure potential declined steadily when a source of water vapor was not available. Xylem pressure potentials of current-year and 1-year-old needles of lodgepole pine (Pinuscontorta var. latifolia Engelm.) were slightly lower than those of older needles.
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  • 71
    Publication Date: 2020-07-01
    Description: Recent interest in continuous cover forest management of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) ecosystems raises questions of long-term sustainability because of uncertainty in rates of canopy recruitment of longleaf pine trees. We destructively sampled 130 naturally regenerated, midstory longleaf pines across an 11 300 ha, second-growth longleaf pine landscape in southwestern Georgia, United States, to reconstruct individual tree height growth patterns. We tested effects of stand density (using a competition index) and site quality (based on two site classifications: mesic and xeric) on height growth and demographics of midstory trees. We also compared height growth of paired midstory and overstory trees to infer stand regeneration and recruitment dynamics. In low-density stands, midstory trees were younger and grew at greater rates than trees within high-density stands. Midstory trees in low-density stands were mostly from a younger regeneration cohort than their paired overstory trees, whereas midstory–overstory pairs in high-density stands were mostly of the same cohort. Our results highlight the importance of releasing midstory longleaf pine trees from local competition for sustained height growth in partial-harvesting management systems. They also demonstrate patterns of long-term persistence in high-density stands, indicating flexibility in the canopy recruitment process of this shade-intolerant tree species.
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  • 72
    Publication Date: 2020-07-01
    Description: Fire refugia — locations that burn less severely or less frequently than surrounding areas — support late-successional and old-growth forest structure and function. This study investigates the influence of topography and fuels on the probability of forest fire refugia under varying fire weather conditions. We focused on recent large fires in Oregon and Washington, United States (n = 39 fires 〉 400 ha, 2004–2014). Our objectives were to (1) map fire refugia as a component of the burn severity gradient, (2) quantify the predictability of fire refugia as a function of prefire fuels and topography under moderate and high fire weather conditions, and (3) map the conditional probability of fire refugia to illustrate their spatial patterns in old-growth forests. Fire refugia exhibited higher predictability under relatively moderate fire weather conditions. Prefire live fuels were strong predictors of fire refugia, with higher refugia probability in forests with higher prefire biomass. In addition, fire refugia probability was higher in topographic settings with relatively northern aspects, steep catchment slopes, and concave topographic positions. Conditional probability maps revealed consistently higher fire refugia probability under moderate versus high fire weather scenarios. Results from this study inform conservation planning by determining late-successional forests most likely to persist as fire refugia despite increasing regional fire activity.
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  • 73
    Publication Date: 2020-07-01
    Description: The sampling intensity of a national forest inventory is usually low. Forest dynamics models can be used to update plots from past inventory campaigns to enhance the precision of the estimate on smaller areas. By doing this, however, the inference relies not only on the sampling design, but also on the model. In this study, the contribution of model predictions to the variance of enhanced small-area estimates was assessed through a case study. The French national forest inventory provided different annual campaigns for a particular region and department of France. Three past campaigns were updated using a forest dynamics model, and estimates of the standing volumes were obtained through two methods: a modified multiple imputation and the Bayesian method. The update greatly increased the precision of the estimate, and the gain was similar between the two methods. The sampling-related variance represented the largest share of the total variance in all cases. This study suggests that plot updating provides more precise estimates as long as (i) the forest dynamics model exhibits no systematic lack of fit and was fitted to a large data set and (ii) the sampling-related variance clearly outweighs the model-related variance.
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  • 74
    Publication Date: 2020-07-01
    Description: This study was carried out in the northern region of Burkina Faso under Sahelian climatic conditions. The area was particularly affected by the 1970s–1980s droughts that led to the degradation of land and vegetation. Since the early 1990s, a gradual return of rainfall has been observed throughout the Sahel region. In this new environmental context, understanding the development of woody plants is important for effective conservation and management. We analyzed the dynamics of woody plant cover over the 30 years following the end of the 1970s–1980s droughts by using Landsat images from 1986, 1999, and 2015 with 30 m spatial resolution and taking into account changes in rainfall and land use. The change in the enhanced vegetation index 1 (EVI1) at the beginning of the dry season was used as a proxy for the change in photosynthetic activity of woody plants. Results showed an improvement in EVI1 on 98% of the study area, with a mean increase of 0.20 from 1986 to 2015. This improvement was accompanied by an increase in agroforestry and was weakly correlated with rainfall. The improvement in EVI1 was unstable, however, with a decline from 1999 to 2015 in the areas undergoing regreening.
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  • 75
    Publication Date: 1983-02-01
    Description: The aboveground biomass of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsugamenziesii (Mirb.) Franco) and annual production over 7 years was studied in relation to thinning and nitrogen fertilization. Biomass yield of both treatments increased during the first 3–4 years then decreased for fertilization but not with thinning. Treatments doubled biomass production of individual trees over the study period when applied separately and quadrupled it when combined. Annual biomass production per unit of foliage (E) increased during the first 3–4 years, but was at or below control level after 7 years. The increased E accounted for 20, 37, and 27% of the stemwood dry matter response to thinning, fertilization and the combined treatments, respectively; the remainder was attributed to an increase in foliage biomass. Thinning, but not fertilization, influenced distribution of radial growth along the stem, increasing growth only below the top one-third of the stem. This pattern was related to crown development.
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  • 76
    Publication Date: 1981-09-01
    Description: In order to test the hypothesis that the deterioration of trembling aspen (Populustremuloides Michx.) is related to variations in climate, soil properties, and genotype, 59 trembling aspen clones were sampled in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Ontario. A longevity index (LI) was calculated by taking the difference between predicted basal area from normal yield tables and measured basal area for each clone. Correlations of environmental variables with LI indicate that aspen longevity decreases with increasing mean annual temperature. Under similar temperature regimes, aspen growing on xeric sites and on sites low in exchangeable Ca are most susceptible to early breakup. Since there were negligible differences in soil properties between nine pairs of adjacent deteriorating and relatively well stocked clones, we hypothesize that, under similar environmental conditions, variation in the timing of deterioration may be due to genotypic differences between clones.
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  • 77
    Publication Date: 1982-12-01
    Description: Carbohydrate reserves and root growth potential (RGP) of 2 + 0 Douglas-fir (Pseudotsugamenziesii (Mirb.) Franco) seedlings were monitored through a lifting season and during dark, cold storage. Concentrations of total nonstructural carbohydrate and extractable sugars in root and stem tissues remained relatively constant through winter, while foliar sugars showed a sharp midwinter peak at about 195 mg•g−1 dry weight. RGP was lowest in November and March and peaked in January. During storage at +2 and −1 °C, carbohydrates were depleted in all tissues through respiratory consumption. In contrast, RGP increased during the first 6 months in storage and then fell rapidly. The results do not support the view that changes in RGP are driven by changes in carbohydrate concentrations. Storage may affect frost hardiness and drought resistance through its effect on sugar concentrations.
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  • 78
    Publication Date: 1984-10-01
    Description: A nonlinear analytical model is developed to describe the relationship between average plant size (weight or volume) and stand density in single-aged, monospecific plant populations. The model gives estimates of the slope and intercept of the −3/2 power rule asymptote, the nature of the size–density trajectory, and such features as relative density at crown closure and the effects of soil type or site index. The model is tested by growing red alder (Alnusrubra Bong.) seedlings under greenhouse and lath house conditions at three initial spacings (8 × 8, 4 × 4, and 2 × 2 cm) and two soil types (river loam and alder forest soil) for 525 growth days. There are seven harvests, starting at crown closure. All size–density trajectories tend consistently towards the same single asymptote irrespective of initial spacing, soil type, or age. The asymptote slope and intercept are 1.46 and ca. 94 kg tree−1•m−2. The crown closure line is parallel to the asymptote at a relative density of 4.6 × 10−3. The model also adequately describes the size–density trajectories for 20–50-year-old red pines (Pinusresinosa Ait.) growing at six initial spacings. The asymptote slope and intercept are 1.6 and ca. 87 × 103 m3•tree−1•ha−1, respectively.
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  • 79
    Publication Date: 1982-09-01
    Description: The pipe model theory presents the idea that a unit weight of tree foliage is serviced by a specific cross-sectional area of conducting sapwood in the crown. Below the crown, a large fraction of the tree bole may be nonconducting tissue, so the sapwood area would have to be known to estimate foliage. We applied the pipe model theory to the analysis of several western coniferous species to learn whether the distribution of canopy leaf area could be accurately estimated from knowledge of the sapwood cross-sectional area at various heights, including breast height (1.37 m). Results are excellent, but taper in the conducting area must be considered when sapwood area is measured below the crown.
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  • 80
    Publication Date: 2020-06-12
    Description: The effect of the radial force applied by a ring debarker tip to frozen balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.) logs, obtained at three positions on the stem, was studied. A one-armed ring debarker prototype was built, which controlled the radial force, the rake angle, and cutting and feed speeds. Balsam fir logs at −19 °C were debarked at three levels of radial force. The rake angle, tip overlap, tip edge radius, and cutting and feed speeds were kept constant. Debarking quality was evaluated by two criteria: the proportion of bark remaining on log surfaces and the amount of wood fibres in bark residues. Log characteristics (dimensions, eccentricity, bark thickness, and knot features), bark–wood shear strength, and the basic densities of sapwood and bark were also measured. Results showed that the radial force had a significant effect on debarking quality. The proportion of bark remaining on log surfaces increased while the amount of wood fibres in bark residues decreased as radial force decreased. A radial force of 18.5 N·mm−1 is suggested for an optimal debarking quality. In contrast, log position on the stem did not affect the debarking quality indicators. Results also showed that the proportion of bark remaining on log surfaces increases as bark–wood shear strength and the proportion of knot surface increase, while the amount of wood fibres in bark residues increases as bark–wood shear strength decreases and logs are more eccentric. The results give useful information to improve the debarking process within the studied range of log diameters and debarking parameters.
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  • 81
    Publication Date: 2020-08-01
    Description: In this study, the performance of a selected microbial consortium (Scutellospora calospora + Azotobacter chroococcum + Bacillus coagulans + Trichoderma harzianum) on Acacia auriculiformis A. Cunn. ex Benth. was evaluated through large-scale nursery trials at three locations in the Mandya district of Karnataka state, India. At each location, 500 inoculated and 500 uninoculated seedlings were cultivated. The increase in plant dry biomass of inoculated plants was 31% (mean of three locations) compared with uninoculated plants. The seedlings inoculated with microbial consortium under large-scale nursery trials were planted in wasteland at three locations, and their growth was monitored for nearly 6 years. At the end of the study, field growth of inoculated trees, measured as the biovolume index, was 52% higher than that of uninoculated trees. This study shows that the selected microbial consortium enhances nursery quality and midterm field growth of Acacia auriculiformis plantations on dry wasteland.
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  • 82
    Publication Date: 2020-11-01
    Description: Shade-tolerant mesophytic tree species tend to dominate the understories of present-day oak–hickory and mixed-hardwood forests in the eastern United States. We quantified the sapling density associations with abiotic and biotic variables for three important mesophytic species: red maple (Acer rubrum L.), sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.), and American beech (Fagus grandifolia Ehrh.) in southeastern Ohio. In this study, we sampled 165 permanent plots in oak-dominated, topographically diverse, mature (〉90 years old), second-growth forests following a time span of 21–25 years (1993–1995 and 2016–2018) between samples on the Athens and Marietta units of the Wayne National Forest. Our models showed that sugar maple was strongly associated with high pH soils and red maple was strongly associated with low pH soils. Additionally, red maple was associated with upper slope positions and older stands, while American beech was associated with lower slopes, northeasterly aspects, and northeast-facing upper slopes. Basal area of competing species, solum depth, and management unit were not significantly related to sapling density for our focal species. American beech sapling density doubled between the two sampling periods, while densities of both maple species declined by half. Our results will help scientists and managers by providing insight into potential future composition of currently oak-dominated forests in areas without active management intervention.
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  • 83
    Publication Date: 2020-05-01
    Description: There has been limited study of songbird communities in different habitats of the lowland boreal forests of southern Yukon, including the mature forest valued for timber harvest. Our goal was to describe the songbird community during the breeding season in a mature (≥80 years since wildfire) forest dominated by white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) adjacent to streams (n = 23) and wetlands (n = 15) compared with a nearby upland forest. Based on point count surveys, songbird communities were unique in the mature forest in the riparian forest edge position, including greater species richness and four significant riparian indicator species. Songbird communities were also unique in the forest adjacent to streams versus wetlands. We mapped species observations along 300 m transects from riparian to upland forests and identified nine species with greater abundance closer to the riparian forest edge. Many of these species are typically associated with riparian and wetland habitats for breeding. Most of the variability in the songbird community was explained by study site, likely related to high variability in forest type and amount of wetland and open water but also to unmeasured habitat characteristics. Our results increase the knowledge of songbird communities in this unique boreal region and suggest that riparian reserve zones in forest management may be useful for protecting songbird habitat.
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  • 84
    Publication Date: 2020-05-01
    Description: Softwood logs comprise a large portion of forest product exports from the United States. Most of these exports have occurred between the Pacific Northwest region of the United States and several Asian countries. In this study, the extent and degree of market integration of softwood log exports from 1996 to 2018 are examined by co-integration analyses and permanent–transitory decomposition. Softwood log exports to Japan and South Korea appear to be in the same economic market and show a high degree of integration, while trade between the United States and China has evolved more independently. A detailed analysis is conducted on five prices related to Japan and South Korea with full-time coverage, and one common integrating factor is found and estimated. The price of export from the Columbia-Snake Customs District to Japan is identified as the driving force. Price responses to market shocks usually occur within four months. These findings have implications for government agencies and participants in the market of softwood log trade.
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  • 85
    Publication Date: 2020-01-01
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  • 86
    Publication Date: 2020-02-01
    Description: In southeast Alaska, United States, multiple-use forest management objectives include both timber production and wildlife habitat. Following stand-replacing disturbances such as clear-cutting, Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carrière) and western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.) naturally regenerate and competitively dominate resources, excluding understory biomass and biodiversity. Thinning may mitigate the effects of canopy closure and permit understory development, but evidence of the effect on understories 8–10 years after thinning is lacking. We report results 4–5 and 8–10 years after thinning experiments on the Tongass National Forest to demonstrate the effects of precommercial thinning (thinned versus control), stand age (15–25, 25–35, and 35–50 years), and weather on understory dynamics and Sitka black-tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus sitkensis Merriam, 1898) forage availability. Stand density negatively affected understory biomass, whereas temperature and precipitation positively interacted to increase biomass. Thinning had an enduring effect on understories, with biomass at least twice as great in thinned versus unthinned stands through year 10. We identified compositional differences from thinning as stand age class increased. Deer forage responded similarly to biomass, but thinning-induced differences faded with increased winter snowfall scenarios, especially in older stands. This study aids the understanding of stand overstory and understory development following silvicultural treatments in the coastal temperate rain forest of Alaska and suggests management implications and applications for balancing objectives throughout the forest type.
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  • 87
    Publication Date: 2020-02-01
    Description: The objective of our research is to extend current conservation applications of modern portfolio theory (MPT) to develop a framework for the cost-efficient budget distribution for a forest carbon payment program that optimizes risk–reward trade-offs in the presence of economic growth uncertainty over time. We consider correlation across space and time of the fluctuating opportunity costs of restoring forestland under changing future economic conditions using a case study of eight states in the central and southern Appalachian region of the United States. The findings suggest that optimal budget allocation decisions that ignore the covariance component of the spatial variance–covariance structure of forest carbon returns fail to minimize the true risk of conservation investment for any level of expected return. The importance of incorporating the spatial covariance in targeting conservation payments is made explicit through alternative approaches using multi-objective (mean–variance) optimization and an ex post analysis with and without the covariance component of the spatial variance–covariance structure of forest carbon return on investment (ROI). A comparison of these approaches against our MPT-based approach revealed misleading risk–return expectations if the ROI covariance is ignored in the spatial targeting of forest carbon payments under uncertainty.
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  • 88
    Publication Date: 2020-02-01
    Description: Wood density, an important parameter for evaluating forest biomass productivity and wood product quality control, is influenced by a complex combination of variables of forest plantations, including environmental conditions and the management practices adopted. In this paper, we demonstrate that three site variables (annual rainfall, temperature, and soil texture) and 10 plantation variables (e.g., age and genetic material) are associated with basic wood density (evaluated in two situations: with and without bark) in 936 trees of different species of Eucalyptus L’Hér across five distinct edaphoclimatic regions in Brazil. A canonical correlation analysis was used to identify the most contributory variables affecting wood density. The variables globally associated with high basic wood densities were, in order of importance, the genetic material and area per tree (both under direct control of plantation managers), as well as mean annual temperature and soil texture of the site. These results confirmed the advantage of using clonal material (instead of seedling origin material) planted in larger spacings in sites with higher mean annual temperatures and clayey soils to obtain higher basic wood densities. Conversely, low basic wood densities were associated with high-productivity sites, higher rainfall, and plantations with a higher basal area per stem in second rotation.
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  • 89
    Publication Date: 2020-01-01
    Description: Trends in land cover and the demand for ecosystem services suggest that plantation forests will be expected to provide a larger quantity and diversity of ecosystem services. We identified three measures indicative of diverse ecosystem services (aboveground biomass, understory biodiversity, and crown length) and compared their relationships to tree species composition in intensively managed forest plantations of the Coast Range mountains of the Pacific Northwest, United States. This study was conducted in stands of western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg.), Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), and red alder (Alnus rubra Bong.), as well as in mixtures of the three species that were 35–39 years old. In this operational setting, we did not observe the positive relationship between species diversity and productivity observed in other studies, which we attributed to management practices that minimize interspecific interaction during most of the rotation. Crown length and understory species diversity were greater in mixtures of tree species than in (monospecific) monocultures. When multiple ecosystem components were considered simultaneously, mixtures of tree species outperformed monocultures. The observed relationships of the three responses to tree species composition and diversity are likely explained by differences in tree phenology, shade tolerance, disease susceptibility, and management interventions. Based on the results, management that is solely fixated on wood production homogeneously throughout the plantation may miss opportunities to provide other ecosystem services.
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  • 90
    Publication Date: 2020-01-01
    Description: We compared early seral development between stands subject to single and repeated high-severity wildfire in low-elevation, mixed conifer – hardwood forests in the Klamath Mountains, California, USA. We used a before–after, control–impact (BACI) approach to assess changes in the density of conifer regeneration and the cover of multiple components of vegetation structure (conifers, hardwoods, shrubs, forbs, and graminoids) and compare pathways of seral development between plots that burned once and plots that burned twice. Fifty-three field plots were established 6 years following a high-severity fire in 2004. Nineteen of these plots experienced a second high-severity wildfire 11 years later (2015), and all plots were remeasured in 2016–2017. Conifer regeneration was abundant following the first fire but was greatly reduced by the second fire. Plots that did not reburn increased in conifer, hardwood, and shrub cover, whereas plots that reburned increased in forb cover and decreased in shrub, hardwood, and conifer cover. Despite conifer loss, we found little evidence of shifts to nonforested states following repeated fire due to resilience of resprouting hardwoods. Our results indicate that repeated high-severity fire has the potential to protract early seral development and catalyze transitions from mixed conifer – hardwood forest to hardwood-dominated early seral conditions.
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  • 91
    Publication Date: 2020-10-01
    Description: Imaging spectroscopy is currently the best approach for continuously mapping forest canopy traits, which is important for ecosystem and biodiversity assessments. Ideally, models are trained with trait data from fully sunlit leaves from the top of the canopy. However, sampling leaves at the top of the canopy is often difficult, and sunlit foliage from the crown periphery is collected instead, assuming minimal within-crown trait variation among sunlit leaves. We tested the degree to which crown position affects foliar traits and spectra using mixed-effects models comparing sun leaves from the crown centre of mature sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) trees collected with DeLeaves, a novel twig-sampling unmanned aerial system device, with sun leaves from the crown periphery collected with a pole pruner. Sun leaves from the crown centre differed from sun leaves from the crown periphery in absorption, reflectance, transmittance, and a series of foliar traits, including leaf thickness, leaf mass, and leaf nitrogen content per unit area, demonstrating differences in resource allocation depending on sun exposure. Our study highlights the importance of accurately matching the location of foliar samples and spectral data and of sampling across gradients of intra-individual variation for the accurate prediction of foliar trait distributions across and within canopies using imaging spectroscopy.
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  • 92
    Publication Date: 2020-01-01
    Description: Pterocarya fraxinifolia (Poir.) Spach (Juglandaceae) is a model relict tree species native to South Caucasus and is a typical element of threatened riparian forests. Intensive land transformations, which are common in Transcaucasia, have resulted in loss of natural habitat and population decline of the species. One of the methods of ex situ conservation is seed banking. Cryopreservation in liquid nitrogen (−196 °C) is of particular interest, as it allows safe preservation of valuable plant genetic resources. However, the feasibility of seed cryopreservation is related to the desiccation tolerance and intrinsic composition of the seeds. In this study, we examined the physiological traits of Pterocarya fraxinifolia seeds, for which desiccation tolerance is unknown or controversial, and their feasibility for cryopreservation. Additionally, we tested stratification methods for dormancy assessment. Results showed that seeds survived desiccation to a moisture content of 2.8% with a germination rate of 64%. Stratification at a temperature of 3 °C for 8 weeks proved to be both fast and effective. Seed moisture content ranging from 2.8% to 18.1% was determined to be safe for cryopreservation. There was no difference in seedling emergence in seeds stored for 1 year regardless of the storage temperature (−3, −18, or −196 °C). Based on our results, Pterocarya fraxinifolia seeds can be classified as orthodox. This study demonstrates for the first time the feasibility of cryopreserving Pterocarya fraxinifolia seeds.
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  • 93
    Publication Date: 2020-01-01
    Description: Blue stain is a type of discoloration that considerably lowers the aesthetic qualities of wood. During harvesting, fungal inoculum finds its way into the wood through places of cutting, delimbing, and damage to the tree stem. The development of peripheral blue stain in the logs of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) due to damage by a harvester head was investigated, using logs felled and delimbed with a chainsaw as reference. The development of blue stain was related to the age class of the stand, the date of felling, and the microclimatic conditions of the wood storage place. The mean surface area of blue stain in logs produced with the harvester was almost 35 cm2, approximately 30% larger than that of the reference logs. In stands of the fourth age class (diameter at breast height 32 cm), the surface of blue stain was more than two times larger than that of stands of the third age class (diameter at breast height 24 cm). The mean area of blue stain in wood stored after spring felling (19.3 cm2) was about 50% of that after summer felling (38.2 cm2). In particular, the development of blue stain in logs obtained with a harvester was visible between weeks 6 and 9 after spring felling and between weeks 3 and 6 after summer felling. For both felling dates, the range of blue stain depended less on air temperature around the wood stack and depended more on the duration of storage.
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  • 94
    Publication Date: 2020-06-08
    Description: Tree height is one of the most important variables for quantitative assessment of forest stocks but is difficult to directly measure. However, such allometric relationships of trees can vary between geographical regions, mainly due to climatic, edaphic, and floristic gradients. Based on the hypothesis that different forest types influence the generic modeling of tree height–diameter relationships on geographical scales, this study aimed to 1) fit equations to estimate tree height in Atlantic Forest types in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; 2) compare efficiency and precision between generic and specific equations for forest types; and 3) test the effect of different forest types and species on the height–diameter relationship. Four allometric models were tested for all forests (generic) and three main forest types (specific). Effects of tree size, forest types and species on tree height estimation were analyzed using multiple linear models and mixed effect linear models. A significant effect of forest type and species on tree height was seen, showing the need to apply local specific equations to minimize the effects that are not captured by generic equations. Differences in tree allometry between forest types were associated with temperature, rainfall, soil and forest structure. These results confirm the effect of the local environment on the height–diameter relationship of trees as found for large scales in tropical forests.
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  • 95
    Publication Date: 2020-06-08
    Description: Herbivores impact soil biogeochemical processes, often increasing nutrient cycling rates under high nutrient availability and decreasing nutrient cycling rates under low nutrient availability. These patterns are far from universal, and interactions between habitat fertility and herbivore effects are under continuing investigation. By sampling inside and outside a network of deer exclosures, we determined deer browsing effects on temperate forest soil nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) cycling along a gradient of soil and litter C–N ratios across our network of sites. Deer browsing increased net N mineralization rates in high nutrient environments and decreased N mineralization rates in low nutrient environments, whereas browsing decreased CO2 respiration rates in high nutrient environments and increased CO2 respiration rates in low nutrient environments. Differences in deer browsing effects on soil processes could be explained by plant responses to herbivory across gradients of resource availability. To our knowledge, our study is one of the first to show that deer browsing can have significant effects on net N mineralization and C respiration in temperate forest soils and that the direction and magnitude of deer browsing effects on soil N and C cycling vary across fertility gradients.
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  • 96
    Publication Date: 2020-10-01
    Description: We consider the problem of tactical forest management over a 5-year horizon with yearly periods. The main decisions made consider which harvest areas to cut in each period, the flow of timber from an area to each wood-processing mill to satisfy its annual demand, and which roads to build to access a harvest area not connected to the existing road network. The goal is to minimize the total transportation and road-building costs subject to budget limitations. To explore the benefits of economies of scale (EOS) in road construction, we incorporated this notion in the proposed model. Then, the efficiency of the obtained solution is compared with the model without EOS. The proposed model is a mixed-integer linear program, including several timber assortments and multiple periods. We validated the model for a realistic case in the context of the province of Quebec. The results demonstrate that consideration of EOS significantly reduces the total cost by about 5.3%. In the EOS solution, the road segments that are built every year are very concentrated in specific parts of the region, allowing a road-building company to take advantage of EOS. Moreover, this solution provides a much more efficient timber transportation plan.
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  • 97
    Publication Date: 2020-09-01
    Description: Postfire salvage logging is used to reduce economic losses; however, burned trees are rapidly colonized by wood-boring insects, which reduce the merchantable value of the wood. This study aims to predict wood borer (Monochamus Megerle in Dejean, 1821) attacks after wildfire as a function of rapidly available variables such as tree basal area, stem diameter, and burn severity using the differenced normalized burn ratio (dNBR). In 2011, we sampled 60 black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) Britton, Sterns & Poggenb.) or jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) plots in five burns from 2010 in the Haute-Mauricie region of Quebec, Canada. A 50 cm bole section was debarked on seven trees in each plot to estimate wood borer attack density. Wood borer attacks were more abundant in black spruce than in jack pine. As a continuous variable, dNBR unveiled a quadratic effect of burn severity on attack density in black spruce, which was higher at moderate burn severity. In jack pine, the highest levels of attack density were found at high burn severity. Models produced in this article will help forest managers to better prioritize areas for salvage logging and thus reduce economic losses due to wood borer activity.
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  • 98
    Publication Date: 2020-10-01
    Description: Les forêts protégées ivoiriennes fournissent des services écosystémiques aux gestionnaires ainsi qu’aux populations riveraines. Cependant, leur gestion connaît de nombreuses difficultés du fait de leur infiltration illégale pour l’agriculture. Ces différentes conversions des classes d’occupation du sol ont modifié les différents services d’approvisionnement des forêts domaniales en général et des forêts classées en particulier. Cette étude a pour objectif d’évaluer les services d’approvisionnement fournis par les plantes de la forêt classée du Haut-Sassandra (FCHS) dans le Centre-Ouest ivoirien, en comparant les bénéfices issus de la FCHS en 2019 à ceux tirés de cet espace en 2000. Les dynamiques spatiotemporelles des formations végétales ont été analysées et ont mis en exergue la progression des exploitations cacaoyères (951,51 % de progression) au détriment des forêts (92,08 % de régression) entre 2000 et 2019. Les enquêtes socioéconomiques ont révélé que cette augmentation des surfaces cacaoyères a entrainé des pertes de 98,11, 93,18 et 78,67 % d’espèces respectivement utilisées pour l’artisanat, la construction et la pharmacopée traditionnelle et une augmentation des services d’alimentation liés aux espèces agricoles. Cependant, ces bénéfices ne profitent pas à l’ensemble des communautés présentes dans la zone d’étude.
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  • 99
    Publication Date: 2020-11-01
    Description: Attributes of deadwood in forests, including quantity, landscape position, and state of decay, influence numerous ecosystem processes such as wildfire behavior, tree regeneration, and nutrient cycling. Attributes of deadwood that vary over subdiurnal time steps, including moisture, have not been routinely measured despite the profound effects they have on ecosystem processes. To improve our understanding of forest deadwood subdiurnal moisture dynamics, we installed an intensive time-domain reflectometry (TDR) sensor network in a log and surrounding soil within a northern hardwood forest in New England, United States. Intensive monitoring during a partial growing season indicated that deadwood moisture was dynamic but similar to that of surrounding soils at 15-min intervals, especially during wetting and drying events. Field results and bench analysis of the sample log revealed numerous challenges when attempting to monitor deadwood moisture with TDR such as heterogeneous and (or) advanced decay confounding TDR moisture measurements in logs. An efficient, high-frequency TDR sensor network was demonstrated to record deadwood and soil moisture fluctuations, which provides an opportunity to refine our understanding of deadwood dynamics in the context of global change such as changing precipitation regimes.
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  • 100
    Publication Date: 2020-10-01
    Description: Weibull distributions have been widely used to describe tree stem diameter distributions. However, there is a scarcity of studies that suggest the best Weibull formulation. The parameters of the Weibull distribution are usually predicted by either the parameter prediction method (PPM) or the parameter recovery method (PRM), although other methods have been proposed. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the performance of eight Weibull formulations and compare methods of parameter prediction to describe diameter distributions of clonal eucalypt stands in Brazil. Data originated from remeasurements of 56 plots at ages 3, 5, and 6 years. Weibull distributions were fitted using the maximum likelihood method and evaluated in a goodness-of-fit indicators ranking. The right-truncated two-parameter formulation showed the best results and was used to evaluate the methods of parameter prediction. Stand attributes showed a strong relationship with shape and scale parameters. Regression models were developed and resulted in accurate estimates using PPM. PRM used a growth and yield system to estimate the stand attributes, followed by the moment-based method. The modified cumulative distribution function regression (CDFR) approach was also evaluated, and it presented the poorest results. Although the PPM showed excellent results, PRM is recommended in older stands with inventory because it implicitly promotes compatibility among stand attributes.
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