ALBERT

Description: Antenna temperatures and the corresponding geolocation data from the five sources of the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager data from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program F11 satellite have been characterized. Data from the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC) have been compared with data from other sources to define and document the differences resulting from different processing systems. While all sources used similar methods to calculate antenna temperatures, different calibration averaging techniques and other processing methods yielded temperature differences. Analyses of the geolocation data identified perturbations in the FNMOC and National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service data. The effects of the temperature differences were examined by generating rain rates using the Goddard Scattering Algorithm. Differences in the geophysical precipitation products are directly attributable to antenna temperature differences.

Description: We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature, which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s. We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the next few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years, and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than "business-as-usual" scenarios.

Description: Through analysis of spectral imaging data acquired with the Airborne Visible Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) from an ER-2 aircraft at 20 km altitude during several field programs, it was found that narrow channels near the center of the strong 1.38-micron water vapor band are very sensitive in detecting thin cirrus clouds. Based on this observation from AVIRIS data, a channel centered at 1.375 microns with a width of 30 nm was selected for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) for remote sensing of cirrus clouds from space. The sensitivity of the 1.375-micron MODIS channel to detect thin cirrus clouds during the day time is expected to be one to two orders of magnitude better than the current infrared emission techniques. As a result, a larger fraction of the satellite data will likely be identified as containing cirrus clouds. In order to make better studies of surface reflectance properties, thin cirrus effects must be removed from satellite images. We have developed an empirical approach for removing/correcting thin cirrus effects in the 0.4 - 1.0 micron region using channels near 1.375 microns. This algorithm will be incorporated into the present MODIS atmospheric correction algorithms for ocean color and land applications and will yield improved MODIS atmospheric aerosol, land surface, and ocean color products.

Description: Thunderstorms separate charge. Most places they lift positive charge or lower negative, a few places they lift negative or lower positive. The electrical generator is stronger in some parts of the cloud than in others. Our long term goal is to map this generator. Cloud physicists tell us that uncharged ice and water particles become charged by collision, and that the charge transferred depends on size, temperature and humidity. There is still some disagreement about exactly how the charge transferred depends on size, temperature, and humidity. In principle, if we knew this ice physics, and also knew the distribution of particles everywhere in the storm, and the winds everywhere and the temperature and humidity everywhere, then we could compute everywhere the electrical power of the thunderstorm generator. In practice it is difficult to know all these things, particularly the distribution of particles, so it is difficult to use real thunderstorms to falsify cloud electrification theories. We here take one small step towards computing that map of electrical generator power, by relating radar reflectivity profiles of 2000 storms to lightning flash rates of those storms. This small step by itself doesn't falsify any existing electrification theories; it merely places weak constraints on the relation of electric generator power to cloud ice.

Description: Two primary detection techniques (optical and RF) have a proven capability for detecting lightning from low earth orbit. However, the lightning processes that generate the optical and RF signals are vastly different providing significantly different information content from each sensor type. Because of the intervening ionosphere, low frequency RF components do not reach satellite altitudes. As a consequence, many of the processes associated with the major energy release of a lightning event (i.e. return strokes, k-changes, recoil streamers, etc), in all likelihood contribute little to the RF signal arriving at the satellite. The optical output from lighting, on the other hand, has been shown to be highly correlated with the energetic, charge-transferring processes mentioned above. On the down side, the optical energy, while essentially unaffected by the atmosphere once it emerges from the cloud, is heavily scattered within the cloud. While there is little absorption by the cloud, the great optical depth makes the total light energy emerging from the cloud to be dependent on where in the cloud the lightning occurred. Analyses suggest that when lightning is confined to the lowest regions of the cloud, the light is strongly attenuated and detection becomes problematic. Fortunately, the vast majority of lightning flashes are comprised of channels that propagate through the middle of the cloud and higher. These flashes produce bright signals at the top of a cloud and are readily detectable. Presently, we have two optical instruments in orbit. The Optical Transient Detector (OTD) has been orbiting the earth since April, 1995, while the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) was launched on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) in November of 1997. Both instruments are relatively small, solid state optical imagers, designed specifically to detect and locate lightning activity from low earth orbit with high detection efficiency and location accuracy.

Description: For the past century, scientists have made quantitative measurements of lightning discharges. In the process, they refined the definition of a lightning unit, or basic quantum of lightning, in order to base it on observable parameters. In this paper, we will use cluster analysis to derive a basic spatial and temporal definition or scale length for the unit of lightning. We will use data from three different systems that detected pulses from the same storm complex over Central Oklahoma during June, 1998. Since the different instruments detect lightning in different ways with different resolutions, there may not be a single definition of the unit of lightning that can be applied to all three systems. However, common components can be found since all instrumentation are detecting aspects of the same phenomenon.

Description: The Lidar In-Space Technology Experiment (LITE) mission has demonstrated the utility of spaceborne lidar in observing multilayer clouds and has provided a dataset showing the distribution of tropospheric clouds and aerosols. These unambiguous observations of the vertical distribution of clouds will allow improved verification of current cloud climatologies and GCM cloud parameterizations. Although there is now great interest in cloud profiling radar, operating in the mm-wave region, for the spacebased observation of cloud heights the results of the LITE mission have shown that satellite lidars can also make significant contributions in this area.

Description: Wind and water vapor are two major factors driving the Earth's atmospheric circulation, and direct measurement of these factors is needed for better understanding of basic atmospheric science, weather forecasting, and climate studies. Coherent lidar has proved to be a valuable tool for Doppler profiling of wind fields, and differential absorption lidar (DIAL) has shown its effectiveness in profiling water vapor. These two lidar techniques are generally considered distinctly different, but this paper explores an experimental combination of the Doppler and DIAL techniques for measuring both wind and water vapor with an eye-safe wavelength based on a solid-state laser material. Researchers have analyzed and demonstrated coherent DIAL water vapor measurements at 10 micrometers wavelength based on CO2 lasers. The hope of the research presented here is that the 2 gm wavelength in a holmium or thulium-based laser may offer smaller packaging and more rugged operation that the CO2-based approach. Researchers have extensively modeled 2 um coherent lasers for water vapor profiling, but no published demonstration is known. Studies have also been made, and results published on the Doppler portion, of a Nd:YAG-based coherent DIAL operating at 1.12 micrometers. Eye-safety of the 1.12 micrometer wavelength may be a concern, whereas the longer 2 micrometer and 10 micrometer systems allow a high level of eyesafety.

Description: Severe storms often have high flash rates (in excess of one flash per second) and are dominated by intracloud lightning activity. In addition to the extraordinary flash rates, there is a second distinguishing lightning characteristic of severe storms that seems to be important. When the total lightning history is examined, one finds sudden increases in the lightning rate, which we refer to as lightning "jumps," that precede the occurrence of severe weather by ten or more minutes. These jumps are typically 30-60 flashes/min, and are easily identified as anomalously large derivatives in the flash rate. This relationship is associated with updraft intensification and updraft strength is an important factor in storm severity (through the accumulation of condensate aloft and the stretching of vorticity). In several cases, evidence for diminishment of midlevel rotation and the descent of angular momentum from aloft is present prior to the appearance of the surface tornado. Based on our experience with severe and tornadic storms in Central Florida, we believe the total lightning may augment the more traditional use of NEXRAD radars and storm spotters. However, a more rigorous relation of these jumps to storm kinematics is needed if we are to apply total lightning in a decision tree that leads to improved warning lead times and decreased false alarm rates.

Description: The Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) is a NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) instrument on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) platform designed to acquire and investigate the distribution and variability of total lightning (i.e., cloud-to-ground and intracloud) between q35' in latitude. Since lightning is one of the responses of the atmosphere to thermodynamic and dynamic forcing, the LIS data is being used to detect deep convection without land-ocean bias, estimate the precipitation mass in the mixed phased region of thunderclouds, and differentiate storms with strong updrafts from those with weak vertical motion.

Description: The Optical Transient Detector (OTD) is a space-based instrument specifically designed to detect and locate lightning discharges (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) as it orbits the Earth. A statistical examination of OTD lightning data reveals that nearly 1.2 billion flashes occurred over the entire earth during the one year period from September 1995 through August 1996. This translates to an average of 37 lightning flashes occurring around the globe every second, which is well below the traditional estimate of 100 flashes per second. An average of 75% of the global lightning activity during the year occurs between 30' S and 30' N. An analysis of the annual lightning distribution reveals that an average of 82% of the lightning flashes occur over the continents and 18% over the oceans, which translates to an average land-ocean flash density ratio of nearly 11.

Description: The lightning frequency model developed by Baker, Christian and Latham (1995) has been refined and extended, in an effort to provide a more realistic framework from which to examine computationally the relationships that might exist between lightning frequency f (which is now being routinely measured from satellites, using NASA/MSFC devices) and a variety of cloud physical parameters, including precipitation rate, updraught speed and non-precipitating ice content. Model results indicate the existence of a simple relationship between lightning frequency f and the upward flux of ice crystals into the thunderstorm anvil. It follows that, for a particular situation, one can assign a specific mass of non-precipitating ice to an individual lightning stroke. Therefore it may prove possible - using satellite measurements of global lightning - to estimate the atmospheric loading of ice crystals in thunderstorm anvils: a parameter of climatological importance. Early results from this work are presented, together with further studies of the relationships between f and other thundercloud parameters.

Description: A charge transfer process during the collision of a riming graupel pellet and an ice-crystal at low temperature is proposed. During riming, the surface structure of graupel deviates from perfect crystalline structure. A concept of quasi-solid layer (QSL) formation on the surface is introduced. This QSL contains defects formed during riming. In absence of impurities, positively charged X-defect abundance is considered in the outer layer. These defects are assumed to be the charge carriers during the charge transfer process. Some part of the QSL is stripped off by the colliding ice crystals, which thereby gain some positive charge, leaving the graupel pellet negatively charged. With the proposed model, fC to pC of charge transfer is observed per collision. A transition temperature between -10 C to -15 C is also noted beyond which the QSL concept does not hold. This transition temperature is dependent on the bulk liquid water content of the cloud.

Description: It is well known that most tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall along the Gulf coast of the United States spawn at least a few tornadoes. Although most landfalling TCs generate fewer than a dozen such tornadoes, a small proportion produce large swarm outbreaks, with as many as 25 or more tornadoes. Usually, these major outbreaks occur in large, intense hurricane-strength TCs, but on 15-17 August 1994 Tropical Storm Beryl spun off 37 tornadoes along its path from the Florida panhandle through the mid-Atlantic states. Some 32 of these tornadoes occurred on 16 August 1994 from eastern Georgia to southern Virginia, with most of these taking place in South Carolina. Beryl's 37 tornadoes moved it into what was at that time fifth place historically in terms of TC tornado productivity. The Beryl outbreak is especially noteworthy in that at least three of the tornadoes achieved peak intensity of F3 on the Fujita damage intensity scale. Although no fatalities resulted from the Beryl outbreak, at least 50 persons suffered injuries, and property damages totalled more than $50 million . The Beryl outbreak is a good example of a TC whose greatest danger to the public is its post-landfall severe weather. In this respect, and in the character of its swarm outbreak of tornadoes, it resembles another large tornado outbreak spawned by a relatively weak TC, Hurricane Danny of 1985). In the Danny outbreak, numerous shallow mini-supercell storms were found to have occurred, and it was noted that, because of the storms' relatively shallow depth, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning was negligible. Better observations of future TC tornado outbreaks, especially with modern surveillance tools such as Doppler radars and the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), were recommended. Although the Beryl tornado outbreak is not the first set of TC-spawned tornado storms to be observed with the NLDN, it is one of the largest and likely the most intense such outbreak. The purpose of this paper is to document the NLDN-derived CG lightning characteristics of Beryl's tornadic storms, and to see how they compare with observations of CG lightning activity in other types of severe storms. In particular, we attempt to quantify the CG flash rates of TC tornadic cells, and to discover if there are any characteristics of their CG activity that may be useful to operational forecasters seeking to distinguish which cells are most likely to produce severe weather.

Description: The problem of retrieving ligntning, ground-strike location on a spherical Earth surface using a network of 4 or more time-of-arrival (TOA) sensors is considered, It is shown that this problem has an analytic solution and therefore does not require the use of nonlinear estimation theory (e.g., minimization). The mathematical robustness of the analytic solution is tested using computer-generated lightning sources and simulated TOA measurement errors. A summary of a quasi-analytic extension of the spherical Earth solution to an oblate spheroid Earth geometry is also provided.

Description: This study summarizes the results of an analysis of data from the LIS instrument on the TRMM platform. The data for the Indian summer monsoon season is examined to study the seasonal patterns of the geographic and diurnal distribution of lightning storms. The storms on the Tibetan plateau show a single large diurnal peak at about 1400 local solar time. A region of Northern Pakistan has two storm peaks at 0200 and 1400 local solar time. The morning peak is half the magnitude of the afternoon peak. The region south of the Himalayan Mountains has a combined diurnal cycle in location and time of storm occurrence.

Description: We have developed a new set of eight electric field mills that were flown on a NASA ER-2 high-altitude aircraft. During the Third Convection And Moisture EXperiment (CAMEX-3; Fall, 1998), measurements of electric field, storm dynamics, and ice microphysics were made over several hurricanes. Concurrently, the TExas-FLorida UNderflights (TEFLUN) program was being conducted to make the same measurements over Gulf Coast thunderstorms. Sample measurements are shown: typical flight altitude is 20km. Our new mills have an internal 16-bit A/D, with a resolution of 0.25V/m per bit at high gain, with a noise level less than the least significant bit. A second, lower gain channel gives us the ability to measure fields as high as 150 kV/m.

Description: The mapping of the lightning optical pulses detected by the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) is compared with the radiation sources by Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) and the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) for three thunderstorms observed during and overpasses on 15 August 1998. The comparison involves 122 flashes including 42 ground and 80 cloud flashes. For ground flash, the LIS recorded the subsequent strokes and changes inside the cloud. For cloud flashes, LIS recorded those with higher sources in altitude and larger number of sources. The discrepancies between the LIS and LDAR flash locations are about 4.3 km for cloud flashes and 12.2 km for ground flashes. The reason for these differences remain a mystery.

Description: Since April 1995, lightning activity around the globe has been monitored with the Optical Transient Detector (OTD). The OTD observations acquired during the one year period from September 1995 through August 1996 have been used to statistically determine the number of flashes that occur over the Earth during each hour of the diurnal cycle, expressed both as a function of local time and universal time. The globally averaged local [il,htnina activity displays a peak in late afternoon (1500-1800 local time) and a minimum in the morning hours (0600- 1000 local time) consistent with convection associated with diurnal heating. No diurnal variation is found for oceanic storms. The diurnal lightning distribution (universal time) for the globe displays a variation of about 35% about its mean as compared to the Carnegie curve which has a variation of only 15% above and below the mean.

Description: Total lightning observations made by the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) of a tornadic thunderstorm that occurred over Oklahoma on 17 April 1995 are presented. The average flash rate of the tornadic storm during the 3.2 min observation period was 45 flashes/min, with a flash rate density of 1.16 x 10(exp -4)/s sq km. The total flash rate was almost 18 times higher than the cloud-to-ground rate measured by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). In addition, total lightning rates were observed to decrease prior to tornadic development.

Description: In recent years, atmospheric conductivity and electric field measurements over thunderstorms have been made at 20 km with a high altitude aircraft. After compensating for the effects of aircraft charging induced by external electric fields no significant variations in ambient conductivity above thunderstorms have been found. These Gerdien results contrast strongly with the large (and frequent) conductivity variations reported in studies using relaxation probe techniques.

Description: The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate anomaly responsible for world-wide weather impacts ranging from droughts to floods. In the United States, warm episode years are known to produce above normal rainfall along the Southeast US Gulf Coast and into the Gulf of Mexico, with the greatest response observed in the October-March period of the current warm-episode year. The 1997-98 warm episode, notable for being the strongest event since 1982-83, presents our first opportunity to examine the response to a major ENSO event and determine the variation of wintertime thunderstorm activity in this part of the world. Due to the recent launch of a lightning sensor on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) in November 1997 and the expanded coverage of the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), we are able to examine such year-to-year changes in lightning activity with far greater detail than ever before.

Description: The double-edge lidar technique for measuring the wind using molecular backscatter is described. Two high spectral resolution edge filters are located in the wings of the Rayleigh-Brillouin profile. This doubles the signal change per unit Doppler shift, the sensitivity, and gives nearly a factor of two improvement in measurement accuracy. The use of a crossover region is described where the sensitivity of a molecular and aerosol-based measurement are equal. This desensitizes the molecular measurement to the effects of aerosol scattering over a frequency range of +/- 100 m/s. We give methods for correcting for short-term frequency jitter and drift using a laser reference frequency measurement and methods for long-term frequency correction using a servo control system. The effects of Rayleigh-Brillouin scattering on the measurement are shown to be significant and are included in the analysis. Simulations for a conical scanning satellite-based lidar at 355 nm show an accuracy of 2-3 m/s for altitudes of 2 to 15 km for a 1 km vertical resolution, a satellite altitude of 400 km and a 200 km x 200 km spatial resolution. Results of ground based wind measurements are presented.

Description: The edge technique utilizes the edge of a high spectral resolution filter for high accuracy wind measurement using direct detection lidar. The signal is split between an edge filter channel and a broadband energy monitor channel. The energy monitor channel is used for signal normalization. The edge measurement is made as a differential frequency measurement between the outgoing laser signal and the atmospheric backscattered return for each pulse. As a result, the measurement is insensitive to laser and edge filter frequency jitter and drift at a level less than a few parts in 10(exp 10). We will discuss the methodology of the technique in detail, present a broad range of simulation results, and provide preprints of a journal article currently in press.

Description: Temperature measurements in the middle atmosphere using Rayleigh lidars have been performed for several decades now. The high accuracy and vertical resolution provided by lidars allow to study the temperature variability at various scales with high confidence levels. One of the numerous applications is the study of the middle atmospheric thermal tides. Although Rayleigh lidar measurements are basically possible only at nighttime, diurnal and semidiurnal components can often be extracted if the results are taken with care and correctly interpreted. Using results from more than 200 hours of nighttime measurements obtained by lidar in October 1996 and 1997 at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii, a study of the middle atmospheric (25-90 km) thermal tides is presented in this paper. The amplitudes and phases of the diurnal and semidiurnal components were calculated for some altitudes where the fits converged significantly, and compared to that of the Global Scale Wave Model (GSWM).

Description: The primary constituents of the Earth's atmosphere are molecular nitrogen and molecular oxygen. Ozone is created when ultraviolet light from the sun photodissociates molecular oxygen into two oxygen atoms. The oxygen atoms undergo many collisions but eventually combine with a molecular oxygen to form ozone (O3). The ozone molecules absorb ultraviolet solar radiation, primarily in the wavelength region between 200 and 300 nanometers, resulting in the dissociation of ozone back into atomic oxygen and molecular oxygen. The oxygen atom reattaches to an O2 molecule, reforming ozone which can then absorb another ultraviolet photon. This sequence goes back and forth between atomic oxygen and ozone, each time absorbing a uv photon, until the oxygen atom collides with and ozone molecule to reform two oxygen molecules.

Description: We review the basic multiple scattering theory of off-beam lidar returns from optically thick clouds using the diffusion approximation. The shape of the temporal signal - the stretched pulse - depends primarily on the physical thickness of the cloud whereas its spatial counterpart - the diffuse spot - conveys specific information on the cloud's optical thickness, as do the absolute returns. This makes observation of the weak off-beam lidar returns an attractive prospect in remote sensing of cloud properties. By estimating the signal-to-noise ratio, we show that night-time measurements can be performed with existing technology. By the same criterion, day-time operation is a challenge that can only be met with a combination of cutting-edge techniques in filtering and in laser sources.

Description: In winter, active convective clouds frequently form along the coastline of the Hokuriku district, in association with strong advection of Siberian air masses over the Sea of Japan. On the other hand, in summer, many thunderclouds form in the Kanto region in the afternoon every day. Summer and winter thunderclouds were investigated by field works, operation of the C- and X-band weather radars and a car-borne fieldmill. The investigation found a very close relation between the temporal variation of 3-dimensional radar echo and surface electric field magnitude detected by a car-borne fieldmill in the case of summer thunderclouds and winter convective clouds or thunderclouds. The study probed the close relation among radar echoes, quantity of thunderclouds and surface electric field magnitude in the summer and winter seasons. We think that summer thundercloud activity can basically be equated with winter thundercloud lightning activity, except that the magnitude of surface electric field under summer thunderclouds in the case of the Kanto region cannot be equated with that under winter thunderclouds in the case of the Hokuriku district in winter.

Description: A six year record of optical observations of lightning-induced mesospheric transient luminous events (TLEs) is available from the Yucca Ridge Field Station (YRFS) near Ft. Collins, CO. Climatological analyses reveal sprites and elves occur in a variety of convective storm types, but principally mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and squall lines. Severe supercell storms rarely produce TLEs, except during their dissipating stage. Few TLEs are observed during storms with radar echo areas 〈7,500 sq km. Above this size there is a modest correlation with radar areal coverage. A typical High Plains storm produces 45 TLEs over a 143 interval. Sprites and most elves are associated with +CGs. The probability of a TLE increases with peak current. In six storms, 5.1% of +CGs produced TLEs, the number increasing to 32% of +CGs with 〉75 kA and 52% of +CGs with 〉100 kA peak current.

Description: Significant differences are known to exist on a global scale between continental and oceanic total lightning regional flash rates, suggesting differences in the properties of convective storms in these regimes. Lightning properties observed by the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) over land and ocean are compared, limited to analysis over the tropics in order to simplify physical interpretation. We find that the mean flash rates of individual storms over tropical land only exceed those over ocean by a factor of 2 (far less than the observed differences in regional flash rates). However, the average nearest neighbor distance of continental thunderstorms is half that over oceans. Cloud-top lightning optical radiance in oceanic storms is also twice as large as over land, suggesting either more energetic flashes over the oceans or less intervening cloud particles.

Description: The danger of natural and triggered lightning significantly impacts space launch operations supported by the USAF. The lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) are used by the USAF to avoid these lightning threats to space launches. This paper presents a brief overview of the LCC.

Description: Charged aerosol clouds allow to create strong electric fields which generate discharges. A character of appearance and development of the discharges is similar to thundercloud processes. That is why the charged aerosol clouds are used for experiments on studying of discharges in air. Experimental data on electromagnetic fields investigation produced by discharges between charged cloud and ground are considered.

Description: Scheduled for launch in 2001 as part of NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS), the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) will provide continuous laser sounding of the earth's atmosphere from space for the first time. From its polar orbit about 600 km above the surface, GLAS will employ a 40 Hz solid state laser operating at 1064 nm to measure topography to an accuracy of 10 cm. Simultaneously, the atmospheric channels (1064 and 532 nm) of GLAS will provide profiles of atmospheric backscatter from 40 km to the ground with 75 meter vertical resolution (Spinhirne and Palm, 1996). These measurements will give scientists an unprecedented global data set on the vertical structure of clouds and aerosols which will greatly aid research efforts aimed at understanding their effects on climate and their role in climate change (Hartman, 1994). To better understand and predict the performance of the GLAS atmospheric channels, a computer model was developed to simulate the type of signal that the instrument would likely produce. The model uses aircraft lidar data and provides realistic simulated GLAS data sets over large areas spanning a wide range of atmospheric conditions. These simulated GLAS datasets are invaluable for designing and testing algorithms for the retrieval of parameters such as cloud and aerosol layer height, optical depth and extinction cross section. This work is currently proceeding and in this paper we will present results of the cloud and aerosol detection algorithm with emphasis on the detection of Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL) aerosol. In addition, we use a recently developed technique to ascertain the feasability of estimating MABL moisture and temperature structure from spaceborne systems such as GLAS.

Description: We have developed the theory for aerosol- and molecular-based lidar measurements of the wind using double edge versions of the edge technique. Aerosol-based wind measurements have been made at Goddard Space Flight Center and molecular-based wind measurements at the University of Geneva. We have demonstrated atmospheric measurements using these techniques for altitudes from 1 to more than 10 km. Measurement accuracies of better than 1.25 m/s have been obtained with integration times from 5 to 30 seconds. The measurements can be scaled to space and agree, within a factor of two, with satellite-based simulations of performance based on Poisson statistics.

Description: At mid and tropical latitudes, cirrus clouds are present more than 50% of the time in satellites observations. Due to their large spatial and temporal coverage, and associated low temperatures, cirrus clouds have a major influence on the Earth-Ocean-Atmosphere energy balance through their effects on the incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared radiation. At present the impact of cirrus clouds on climate is well recognized but remains to be asserted more precisely, for their optical and radiative properties are not very well known. In order to understand the effects of cirrus clouds on climate, their optical and radiative characteristics of these clouds need to be determined accurately at different scales in different locations i.e. latitude. Lidars are well suited to observe cirrus clouds, they can detect very thin and semi-transparent layers, and retrieve the clouds geometrical properties i.e. altitude and multilayers, as well as radiative properties i.e. optical depth, backscattering phase functions of ice crystals. Moreover the linear depolarization ratio can give information on the ice crystal shape. In addition, the data collected with an airborne version of POLDER (POLarization and Directionality of Earth Reflectances) instrument have shown that bidirectional polarized measurements can provide information on cirrus cloud microphysical properties (crystal shapes, preferred orientation in space). The spaceborne version of POLDER-1 has been flown on ADEOS-1 platform during 8 months (October 96 - June 97), and the next POLDER-2 instrument will be launched in 2000 on ADEOS-2. The POLDER-1 cloud inversion algorithms are currently under validation. For cirrus clouds, a validation based on comparisons between cloud properties retrieved from POLDER-1 data and cloud properties inferred from a ground-based lidar network is currently under consideration. We present the first results of the validation.

Description: During the interval of 1944-1997, 120 intense hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale) have been observed in the Atlantic basin. These intense hurricanes have had an observed annual frequency of 0-7 events per year (having a mean, mode, and median equal to about 2 events per year), being preferentially lower during El Ninio years and higher during non-El Ninio years. Also, it has recently been established that a long-term downward trend in the annual frequency of intense hurricanes, spanning about five decades, has taken place, although this trend can, alternatively, be explained as a shift from a more active state prior to the mid 1960's to a less active state thereafter (rather than as a simple linear decline). In this paper, on the basis of 10-yr moving averages, the long4erm trend of the frequency of intense hurricanes is compared against one for the annual mean temperature at Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland (which serves as a proxy for climatic change). Interestingly, the two sets of 10-yr moving averages correlate extremely well, especially, when incorporating a slight 6-yr lag between them (with temperature leading; r = 0.90). This suggests that the current leading trend of temperature, which had been downward, but now is upward, may portend a return to the more active state for intense hurricanes. Thus, the 1998 season (presuming the abatement of El Ninio prior to the start of the hurricane season), and for several years thereafter (at least, into the early years of the next millennium), may have an annual frequency of intense hurricanes that is commensurate with the previously observed active state that was seen prior to the mid 1960's. If true, then, the shift to the more active state, probably, occurred in the mid-to-late 1980's, apparently, having gone undetected because of the masking, or modulating, effect of El Ninio, which has been rampant since the mid-to-late 1980's.

Description: Goals of the 3-month experiment GREENHOUSE using the equipment of greenhouse SVET (ECO-PSY-95) were to feature growth and development of wheat through the entire cycle of ontogeny under the maximally mimicked MIR environment, and to try out the procedures and timeline of space experiment GREENHOUSE-2 as a part of the fundamental biology investigations within the MIR/NASA space science program. Irradiation intensity (PAR) was 65 W/m2 and 38 W/m2 in the experiment and laboratory control, respectively. Values of other environmental parameters were MIR average (18-25 degrees C, relative air humidity in the interval between 40% and 75%, total gas pressure of about 660 to 860 mm Hg, partial oxygen pressure within the range from 140 to 200 mm Hg, partial carbon dioxide pressure up to 7 mm Hg). Experimental results showed that wheat cultivation in inhabited chamber under a modified lighting unit providing greater irradiation of the crop area produced more plant mass although seed production dropped. Low grain content in ears could be the aftermath of the gaseous trace contaminants in the chamber atmosphere.

Description: In 1996-1997 an experiment with super dwarf wheat (Greenhouse-2) was made aboard the orbital complex MIR as a part of the MIR-NASA space science program. The article deals with the main production and morphometric characteristics of plants that completed their vegetation cycle in the space flight. Lengths of the whole cycle of vegetation and its individual stages were essentially same as in ground control experiments. Dry mass of one plants equal, the number of headed shoots was in 2.7 times less in the flight harvest as compared with the control. The height of shoots was reduced by one half. No seeds were found in the heads formed in space. The architecture of heads was substantially different from what had been observed in the preceeding ground control experiments: mass of the heads was halved and lengths of inflorescence and palea awn shortened. The number of spikelets in a head reduced up to 8-10 vs. 13-14 in the controls, whereas the number of florets per a spikelet averaged 5 vs. 3 in the controls. The experiments showed that mainly the most profound changes in the productive and morphometric parameters of the super dwarf wheat plants were largely caused by the phytotoxic effects of ethylene rather than spaceflight specific factors as its concentrations in the MIR air amount to 0.3-1.8 mg/m3.

Description: The Galileo Probe entered the atmosphere of Jupiter on December 7, 1995. Measurements of the chemical and isotopic composition of the Jovian atmosphere were obtained by the mass spectrometer during the descent over the 0.5 to 21 bar pressure region over a time period of approximately 1 hour. The sampling was either of atmospheric gases directly introduced into the ion source of the mass spectrometer through capillary leaks or of gas, which had been chemically processed to enhance the sensitivity of the measurement to trace species or noble gases. The analysis of this data set continues to be refined based on supporting laboratory studies on an engineering unit. The mixing ratios of the major constituents of the atmosphere hydrogen and helium have been determined as well as mixing ratios or upper limits for several less abundant species including: methane, water, ammonia, ethane, ethylene, propane, hydrogen sulfide, neon, argon, krypton, and xenon. Analysis also suggests the presence of trace levels of other 3 and 4 carbon hydrocarbons, or carbon and nitrogen containing species, phosphine, hydrogen chloride, and of benzene. The data set also allows upper limits to be set for many species of interest which were not detected. Isotope ratios were measured for 3He/4He, D/H, 13C/12C, 20Ne/22Ne, 38Ar/36Ar and for isotopes of both Kr and Xe.

Description: We have performed high-resolution spectral observations at mid-infrared wavelengths of CH4 (8.14 micrometers), C2H6 (12.16 micrometers), and C2H2 (13.45 micrometers) on Jupiter. These emission features probe the stratosphere of the planet and provide information on the carbon-based photochemical processes taking place in that region of the atmosphere. The observations were performed using our cryogenic echelle spectrometer CELESTE, in conjunction with the McMath-Pierce 1.5-m solar telescope between November 1994 and February 1995. We used the methane observations to derive the temperature profile of the jovian atmosphere in the 1-10 mbar region of the stratosphere. This profile was then used in conjunction with height-dependent mixing ratios of each hydrocarbon to determine global abundances for ethane and acetylene. The resulting mixing ratios are 3.9(+1.9)(-1.3) x 10(-6) for C2H6 (5 mbar pressure level), and 2.3 +/- 0.5 x 10(-8) for C2H2 (8 mbar pressure level), where the quoted uncertainties are derived from model variations in the temperature profile which match the methane observation uncertainties. c1998 Academic Press.

Description: Data from both 27 sites in the Atlanta mesonet surface meteorological network and eight National Weather Service sites were analyzed for the period from 26 July to 3 August 1996. Analysis of the six precipitation events over the city during the period (each on a different day) showed that its urban heat island (UHI) induced a convergence zone that initiated three of the storms at different times of the day, i.e., 0630,0845, and 1445 EDT. Previous analysis has shown that New York City (NYC) effects summer daytime thunderstorm formation and/or movement. That study found that during nearly calm regional flow conditions the NYC UHI initiates convective activity. Moving thunderstorms, however, tended to bifurcate and to move around the city, due to its building barrier effect. The current Atlanta results thus agree with the NYC results with respect to thunderstorm initiation.

Description: Ensembles of atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) seasonal forecasts and long-term simulations (1980-94) are analyzed to assess the controlling influences of boundary forcing and memory of the initial conditions. Both the forecasts and simulations are carried out with version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-2) GCM forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). While much of the focus is on the seasonal time scale (January- March) and the Pacific North American (PNA) region, we also present results for other regions, shorter time scales, and other known modes of variability in the northern hemisphere extratropics. Forecasts of indices of some of the key large-scale modes of variability show that there is considerable variability in skill between different regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The eastern North Atlantic region has the poorest long lead forecast skill showing no skill beyond about 10 days. Skillful seasonal forecasts are primarily confined to the wave-like ENSO response emanating from the tropical Pacific. In the Northern Hemisphere, this is associated with the well-known Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern. Memory of the initial conditions is the major factor leading to skillful extratropical forecasts of lead time less than one month, while SST forcing is the only factor at the seasonal time scale. SST forcing contributes to skillful forecasts at sub- seasonal time scales only over the PNA region. The GEOS-2 GCM produces average (1980-94) signal to noise ratios which are less than one everywhere in the extratropics, except for the subtropical Pacific where they approach 1.5. When confined to the ENSO years, the maximum signal to noise ratios occur in the PNA region where they exceed three. An assessment of the sampling distribution of the forecasts suggests the model's ENSO response is very likely too weak. These results show some sensitivity to the uncertainties in the estimates of the SST forcing fields. In the North Pacific region, the sensitivity to SST forcing manifests itself primarily as changes in the variability of the PNA response, underscoring the need for an ensemble approach to the seasonal prediction problem.

Description: An analysis of nadir reflectivity Fourier spatial power spectra and autocorrelation functions at solar wavelengths and for cloudy conditions has been carried out. The data come from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) observations, while Monte Carlo (MC) simulations are used to aid the interpretation of the Landsat results. We show that radiative processes produce consistent signatures on power spectra and autocorrelation functions. The former take a variety of forms not shown or explained in previous observational studies. We demonstrate that the TM spectra can potentially be affected by both radiative "roughening" at intermediate scales (approx. 1 -5 km), being more prevalent at large solar zenith angles, and the already documented radiative "smoothing" at small scales (less than 1 km). These processes are wavelength dependent, as shown by systematic differences between conservative (for cloud droplets) TM band 4 (approx. 0.8 microns) and absorbing band 7 (approx. 2.2 microns): band 7 exhibits more roughening and less smoothing. This is confirmed quantitatively by comparing least-squared fitted power spectral slopes for the two bands. It is also corroborated by a slower decrease with distance of autocorrelation function values for band 4 compared to band 7. The appearance of roughening at large solar zenith angles is a result of side illumination and shadowing and adds an additional complexity to the power spectra. MC spectra are useful in illustrating that scale invariant optical depth fields can produce complex power spectra that take a variety of shapes under different conditions. We show that radiative roughening increases with the decrease of single scattering albedo and with the increase of solar zenith angle (as in the observations). For high Sun there is also a clear shift of the radiative smoothing scale to smaller values as droplet absorption increases. The shape of the power spectrum is sensitive to the magnitude and type of cloud top height variability, with the spectral signatures of decorrelation between reflectance and optical depth at large scales becoming stronger as the magnitude of cloud top variations increase. Finally, the usefulness of power spectral analysis in evaluating the skill of novel optical depth retrieval techniques in removing 3D radiative effects is demonstrated. New techniques using inverse Non-local Independent Pixel Approximation (NIPA) and Normalized Difference of Nadir Reflectivity (NDNR) yield optical depth fields which better match the scale-by-scale variability of the true optical depth field.

Description: A new technique for measuring cloud liquid water, mean droplet radius and droplet number density is outlined. The technique is based on simultaneously measuring Raman and Mie scattering from cloud liquid droplets using a Raman lidar. Laboratory experiments on liquid micro-spheres have shown that the intensity of Raman scattering is proportional to the amount of liquid present in the spheres. This fact is used as a constraint on calculated Mie intensity assuming a gamma function particle size distribution. The resulting retrieval technique is shown to give stable solutions with no false minima. It is tested using Raman lidar data where the liquid water signal was seen as an enhancement to the water vapor signal. The general relationship of retrieved average radius and number density is consistent with traditional cloud physics models. Sensitivity to the assumed maximum cloud liquid water amount and the water vapor mixing ratio calibration are tested. Improvements to the technique are suggested.

Description: Given the substantial radiative effects of cirrus clouds and the need to validate cirrus cloud mass in climate models, it is important to measure the global distribution of cirrus properties with satellite remote sensing. Existing cirrus remote sensing techniques, such as solar reflectance methods, measure cirrus ice water path (IWP) rather indirectly and with limited accuracy. Submillimeter/wave radiometry is an independent method of cirrus remote sensing based on ice particles scattering the upwelling radiance emitted by the lower atmosphere. A new aircraft instrument, the Far Infrared Sensor for Cirrus (FIRSC), is described. The FIRSC employs a Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS). which measures the upwelling radiance across the whole submillimeter region (0.1 1.0-mm wavelength). This wide spectral coverage gives high sensitivity to most cirrus particle sizes and allows accurate determination of the characteristic particle size. Radiative transfer modeling is performed to analyze the capabilities of the submillimeter FTS technique. A linear inversion analysis is done to show that cirrus IWP, particle size, and upper-tropospheric temperature and water vapor may be accurately measured, A nonlinear statistical algorithm is developed using a database of 20000 spectra simulated by randomly varying most relevant cirrus and atmospheric parameters. An empirical orthogonal function analysis reduces the 500-point spectrum (20 - 70/cm) to 15 "pseudo-channels" that are then input to a neural network to retrieve cirrus IWP and median particle diameter. A Monte Carlo accuracy study is performed with simulated spectra having realistic noise. The retrieval errors are low for IWP (rms less than a factor of 1.5) and for particle sizes (rins less than 30%) for IWP greater than 5 g/sq m and a wide range of median particle sizes. This detailed modeling indicates that there is good potential to accurately measure cirrus properties with a submillimeter FTS.

Description: A linear algebraic solution is provided for the problem of retrieving the location and time of occurrence of lightning ground strikes from an Advanced Lightning Direction Finder (ALDF) network. The ALDF network measures field strength, magnetic bearing and arrival time of lightning radio emissions. Solutions for the plane (i.e., no Earth curvature) are provided that implement all of tile measurements mentioned above. Tests of the retrieval method are provided using computer-simulated data sets. We also introduce a quadratic planar solution that is useful when only three arrival time measurements are available. The algebra of the quadratic root results are examined in detail to clarify what portions of the analysis region lead to fundamental ambiguities in source location. Complex root results are shown to be associated with the presence of measurement errors when the lightning source lies near an outer sensor baseline of the ALDF network. In the absence of measurement errors, quadratic root degeneracy (no source location ambiguity) is shown to exist exactly on the outer sensor baselines for arbitrary non-collinear network geometries. The accuracy of the quadratic planar method is tested with computer generated data sets. The results are generally better than those obtained from the three station linear planar method when bearing errors are about 2 deg. We also note some of the advantages and disadvantages of these methods over the nonlinear method of chi(sup 2) minimization employed by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and discussed in Cummins et al.(1993, 1995, 1998).

Description: Recognizing the importance of rain in the tropics and the accompanying latent heat release, NASA for the U.S. and NASDA for Japan have partnered in the design, construction and flight of an Earth Probe satellite to measure tropical rainfall and calculate the associated heating. Primary mission goals are: 1) the understanding of crucial links in climate variability by the hydrological cycle, 2) improvement in the large-scale models of weather and climate, and 3) improvement in understanding cloud ensembles and their impacts on larger scale circulations. The linkage with the tropical oceans and landmasses are also emphasized. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was launched in November 1997 with fuel enough to obtain a four to five year data set of rainfall over the global tropics from 37 deg N to 37 deg S. This paper reports progress from launch date through the spring of 1999. The data system and its products and their access is described, as are the algorithms used to obtain the data. Some exciting early results from TRMM are described. Some important algorithm improvements are shown. These will be used in the first total data reprocessing, scheduled to be complete in early 2000. The reader is given information on how to access and use the data.

Description: The distribution and intensity of total (i.e., combined stratified and convective processes) rainrate/latent heat release (LHR) were derived for tropical cyclone Paka during the period 9-21 December, 1997 from the F-10, F-11, F-13, and F-14 Defense Meteorological Satellite Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and the Tropical Rain Measurement Mission Microwave Imager observations. These observations were frequent enough to capture three episodes of inner core convective bursts that preceded periods of rapid intensification and a convective rainband (CRB) cycle. During these periods of convective bursts, satellite sensors revealed that the rainrates/LHR: 1) increased within the inner eye wall region; 2) were mainly convectively generated (nearly a 65% contribution), 3) propagated inwards; 4) extended upwards within the middle and upper-troposphere, and 5) became electrically charged. These factors may have caused the eye wall region to become more buoyant within the middle and upper-troposphere, creating greater cyclonic angular momentum, and, thereby, warming the center and intensifying the system. Radiosonde measurements from Kwajalein Atoll and Guam, sea surface temperature observations, and the European Center for Medium Range Forecast analyses were used to examine the necessary and sufficient condition for initiating and maintaining these inner core convective bursts. For example, the necessary conditions such as the atmospheric thermodynamics (i.e., cold tropopause temperatures, moist troposphere, and warm SSTs [greater than 26 deg]) suggested that the atmosphere was ideal for Paka's maximum potential intensity (MPI) to approach super-typhoon strength. Further, Paka encountered weak vertical wind shear (less than 15 m/s ) before interacting with the westerlies on 21 December. The sufficient conditions, on the other hand, appeared to have some influence on Paka's convective burst, but the horizontal moisture flux convergence values in the outer core were weaker than some of the previously examined tropical cyclones. Also, the upper tropospheric outflow generation of eddy relative angular momentum flux convergence was 4D much less than that found during moderate tropical cyclone/trough interaction. These results indicated how important the external necessary condition and the internal forcing (i.e., CRB cycle) were in generating Paka's convective bursts as compared to the external sufficient forcing mechanisms found in higher latitude tropical cyclones. Later, as Paka began to interact with the westerlies, both the necessary (i.e., strong vertical shear and colder SSTs) and sufficient (i.e., dry air intrusion) external forcing mechanisms helped to decrease Paka's rainrate.

Description: As established in previous studies, and analyzed further herein for the years 1988-1998, warm advection from the North Atlantic is the predominant control of the surface-air temperature in northern-latitude Europe in late winter. This thesis is supported by the substantial correlation Cti between the speed of the southwesterly surface winds over the eastern North Atlantic, as quantified by a specific Index Ina, and the 2-meter level temperature Ts over central Europe (48-54 deg N; 5-25 deg E), for January, February and early March. In mid-March and subsequently, the correlation Cti drops drastically (quite often it is negative). The change in the relationship between Ts and Ina marks a transition in the control of the surface-air temperature. As (a) the sun rises higher in the sky, (b) the snows melt (the surface absorptivity can increase by a factor of 3.0), (c) the ocean-surface winds weaken, and (d) the temperature difference between land and ocean (which we analyze) becomes small, absorption of insolation replaces the warm advection as the dominant control of the continental temperature. We define the onset of spring by this transition, which evaluated for the period of our study occurs at pentad 16 (Julian Date 76, that is, March 16). The control by insolation means that the surface is cooler under cloudy conditions than under clear skies. This control produces a much smaller interannual variability of the surface temperature and of the lapse rate than prevailing in winter, when the control is by advection. Regional climatic data would be of greatest value for agriculture and forestry if compiled for well-defined seasons. For continental northern latitudes, analysis presented here of factors controlling the surface temperature appears an appropriate tool for this task.

Description: Cloud optical thickness and effective radius retrievals from solar reflectance measurements are traditionally implemented using a combination of spectral channels that are absorbing and non-absorbing for water particles. Reflectances in non-absorbing channels (e.g., 0.67, 0.86, 1.2 micron spectral window bands) are largely dependent on cloud optical thickness, while longer wavelength absorbing channels (1.6, 2. 1, and 3.7 micron window bands) provide cloud particle size information. Cloud retrievals over ice and snow surfaces present serious difficulties. At the shorter wavelengths, ice is bright and highly variable, both characteristics acting to significantly increase cloud retrieval uncertainty. In contrast, reflectances at the longer wavelengths are relatively small and may be comparable to that of dark open water. A modification to the traditional cloud retrieval technique is devised. The new algorithm uses only a combination of absorbing spectral channels for which the snow/ice albedo is relatively small. Using this approach, retrievals have been made with the MODIS Airborne Simulator (MAS) imager flown aboard the NASA ER-2 from May - June 1998 during the Arctic FIRE-ACE field deployment. Data from several coordinated ER-2 and University of Washington CV-580 in situ aircraft observations of liquid water stratus clouds are examined. MAS retrievals of optical thickness, droplet effective radius, and liquid water path are shown to be in good agreement with the in situ measurements. The initial success of the technique has implications for future operational satellite cloud retrieval algorithms in polar and wintertime regions.

Description: Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer brightness temperature data in the 85 GHz channel (T85) reveal distinct local minima (T85min) in a regional map containing a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). This is because of relatively small footprint size (approximately 5.5 km) and strong extinction properties in this channel of the TMI. A map of surface rain rate for that region, deduced from simultaneous measurements made by the Precipitation Radar (PR) on board the TRMM satellite, reveals that these T85(sub min), produced by scattering, correspond to local PR rain maxima. Utilizing the PR rain rate map as a guide, we infer empirically from TMI data the presence of three different kinds of thunderstorms or Cbs. These Cbs are classified as young, mature, and decaying types, and are assumed to have a scale of about 20 km on the average. Two parameters are used to classify these three kinds of Cbs based on the T85 data: a) the magnitude of scattering depression deduced from local T85(sub min) and b) the mean horizontal gradient of T85 around such minima. Knowing the category of a given Cb, we can estimate the rain rate associated with it. Such estimation is done with the help of relationships linking T85min to rain rate in each Cb type. Similarly, a weak background rain rate in all the areas where T85 is less than 260 K is deduced with another relationship linking T85 to rain rate. In our rain retrieval model, this background rain constitutes stratiform rain where the Cbs are absent. Initially, these relationships are optimized or tuned utilizing the PR and TMI data of a few MCS events. After such tuning, the model is applied to independent MCS cases. The areal distribution of light (1-10 mm/hr), moderate (10-20 mm/hr), and intense (〉= 20 mm/hr) rain rates are retrieved satisfactorily. Accuracy in the estimates of the light, moderate, and intense rain areas and the mean rain rates associated with such areas in these independent MCS cases is on the average about 15 %. Taking advantage of this ability of our retrieval method, one could derive the latent heat input into the atmosphere over the 760 km wide swath of the TMI radiometer in the tropics.

Description: The 1997-99 ENSO (El nino Southern Oscillation) cycle was very powerful, but also well observed. The best satellite rainfall estimates combined with gauge observations allow for a global analysis of precipitation anomalies accompanying the 1997-98 El Nino and initiation of the 1998-99 La Nina. For the period April 1997 to March 1998 the central to eastern Pacific, southeastern and western U.S., Argentina, eastern Africa, South China, eastern Russia, and North Atlantic were all more than two standard deviations wetter than normal. During the same year the Maritime Continent, eastern Indian Ocean, subtropical North Pacific, northeastern South America, and much of the mid- latitude southern oceans were more than two standard deviations drier than normal. An analysis of the evolution of the El Nino and accompanying precipitation anomalies revealed that a dry Maritime Continent led the formation of the El Nino SST (Sea Surface Temperature), while in the central Pacific, precipitation anomalies lagged the El Nino SST by a season. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina occurred in May 1998, but as early as October-November 1997 precipitation indices captured precursor changes in Pacific rainfall anomalies. Differences were found between observed and modeled [NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis] precipitation anomalies for 1997 and 98. In particular, the model had a bias towards positive precipitation anomalies and the magnitudes of the anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were small compared to the observations. Also, the evolution of the precipitation field, including the drying of the Maritime Continent and eastward progression of rainfall in the equatorial Pacific, was less pronounced for the model compared to the observations. One degree daily estimates of rainfall show clearly the MaddenJulian Oscillation and related westerly wind burst events over the Maritime Continent, which are key indicators for the onset of El Nino.

Description: In this paper, TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Satellite) Precipitation Radar (PR) products are evaluated by means of simultaneous comparisons with data from the high-altitude ER-2 Doppler Radar (EDOP), as well as ground-based radars. The comparison is aimed primarily at the vertical reflectivity structure, which is of key importance in TRMM rain type classification and latent heating estimation. The radars used in this study have considerably different viewing geometries and resolutions, demanding non-trivial mapping procedures in common earth-relative coordinates. Mapped vertical cross sections and mean profiles of reflectivity from the PR, EDOP, and ground-based radars are compared for six cases. These cases cover a stratiform frontal rainband, convective cells of various sizes and stages, and a hurricane. For precipitating systems that are large relative to the PR footprint size, PR reflectivity profiles compare very well to high-resolution measurements thresholded to the PR minimum reflectivity, and derived variables such as bright band height and rain types are accurate, even at high PR incidence angles. It was found that for, the PR reflectivity of convective cells small relative to the PR footprint is weaker than in reality. Some of these differences can be explained by non-uniform beam filling. For other cases where strong reflectivity gradients occur within a PR footprint, the reflectivity distribution is spread out due to filtering by the PR antenna illumination pattern. In these cases, rain type classification may err and be biased towards the stratiform type, and the average reflectivity tends to be underestimated. The limited sensitivity of the PR implies that the upper regions of precipitation systems remain undetected and that the PR storm top height estimate is unreliable, usually underestimating the actual storm top height. This applies to all cases but the discrepancy is larger for smaller cells where limited sensitivity is compounded by incomplete beam filling. Users of level three TRMM PR products should be aware of this scale dependency.

Description: The direct radiative forcing of Saharan dust aerosols has been determined by combining aerosol information derived from Nimbus-7 TOMS with radiation measurements observed at the top of atmosphere (TOA) by NOAA-9 ERBE made during February-July 1985. Cloud parameters and precipitable water derived from the NOAA-9 HIRS2 instrument were used to aid in screening for clouds and water vapor in the analyses. Our results indicate that under "cloud-free" and "dry" conditions there is a good correlation between the ERBE TOA outgoing longwave fluxes and the TOMS aerosol index measurements over both land and ocean in areas under the influence of airborne Saharan dust. The ERBE TOA outgoing shortwave fluxes were also found to correlate well with the dust loading derived from TOMS over ocean. However, the calculated shortwave forcing of Saharan dust aerosols is very weak and noisy over land for the range of solar zenith angle viewed by the NOAA-9 ERBE in 1985. Sensitivity factors of the TOA outgoing fluxes to changes in aerosol index were estimated using a linear regression fit to the ERBE and TOMS measurements. The ratio of the shortwave-to-longwave response to changes in dust loading over the ocean is found to be roughly 2 to 3, but opposite in sign. The monthly averaged "clear-sky" TOA direct forcing of airborne Saharan dust was also calculated by multiplying these sensitivity factors by the TOMS monthly averaged "clear-sky" aerosol index. Both the observational and theoretical analyses indicate that the dust layer height, ambient moisture content as well as the presence of cloud all play an important role in determining the TOA direct radiative forcing due to mineral aerosols.

Description: The GEOS-1 general circulation model has been used to compute atmospheric torques on the oceans and solid Earth for the period 1980-1995. The time series for the various torque components have been analyzed by means of Fourier transform techniques. It was determined that the wind stress torque over land is more powerful than the wind stress torque over water by 55%, 42%, and 80% for the x, y, and z components respectively. This is mainly the result of power in the high frequency range. The pressure torques due to polar flattening, equatorial ellipticity, marine geoid, and continental orography were computed. The orographic or "mountain torque" components are more powerful than their wind stress counterparts (land plus ocean) by 231% (x), 191% (y), and 77% (z). The marine pressure torques due to geoidal undulations are much smaller than the orographic ones, as expected. They are only 3% (x), 4% (y), and 5% (z) of the corresponding mountain torques. The geoidal pressure torques are approximately equal in magnitude to those produced by the equatorial ellipticity of the Earth. The pressure torque due to polar flattening makes the largest contributions to the atmospheric torque budget. It has no zonal component, only equatorial ones. Most of the power of the latter, between 68% and 69%, is found in modes with periods under 15 days. The single most powerful mode has a period of 361 days. The gravitational torque ranks second in power only to the polar flattening pressure torque. Unlike the former, it does produce a zonal component, albeit much smaller (1%) than the equatorial ones. The gravitational and pressure torques have opposite signs, therefore, the gravitational torque nullifies 42% of the total pressure torque. Zonally, however, the gravitational torque amounts to only 6% of the total pressure torque. The power budget for the total atmospheric torque yields 7595 and 7120 Hadleys for the equatorial components and 966 Hadleys for the zonal. The x-component exhibits a large mean value (1811 H), mainly the result of polar flattening pressure torque acting on the ocean surfaces. Atmospheric torque modes with periods of 408, 440, and 476 days appear in the spectrum of the equatorial components.

Description: High-resolution AMS (accelerator-mass-spectrometer) radiocarbon dating was performed on late-glacial macrofossils in lake sediments from Kodiak Island, Alaska, and on shells in marine sediments from southwest Sweden. In both records, a dramatic drop in radiocarbon ages equivalent to a rise in the atmospheric C-14 by approximately 70%. coincides with the beginning of the cold period at 11000 yr B.P. (C-14 age). Thus our results show that a close correlation between climatic records around the globe is possible by using a global signature of changes in atmospheric C-14 content.

Description: A summary is presented of basic lightning characteristics/criteria for current and future NASA aerospace vehicles. The paper estimates the probability of occurrence of a 200 kA peak lightning return current, should lightning strike an aerospace vehicle in various operational phases, i.e., roll-out, on-pad, launch, reenter/land, and return-to-launch site. A literature search was conducted for previous work concerning occurrence and measurement of peak lighting currents, modeling, and estimating probabilities of launch vehicles/objects being struck by lightning. This paper presents these results.

Description: A two-dimensional coupled ocean-cloud resolving atmosphere model is used to investigate possible roles of convective scale ocean disturbances induced by atmospheric precipitation on ocean mixed-layer heat and salt budgets. The model couples a cloud resolving model with an embedded mixed layer-ocean circulation model. Five experiment are performed under imposed large-scale atmospheric forcing in terms of vertical velocity derived from the TOGA COARE observations during a selected seven-day period. The dominant variability of mixed-layer temperature and salinity are simulated by the coupled model with imposed large-scale forcing. The mixed-layer temperatures in the coupled experiments with 1-D and 2-D ocean models show similar variations when salinity effects are not included. When salinity effects are included, however, differences in the domain-mean mixed-layer salinity and temperature between coupled experiments with 1-D and 2-D ocean models could be as large as 0.3 PSU and 0.4 C respectively. Without fresh water effects, the nocturnal heat loss over ocean surface causes deep mixed layers and weak cooling rates so that the nocturnal mixed-layer temperatures tend to be horizontally-uniform. The fresh water flux, however, causes shallow mixed layers over convective areas while the nocturnal heat loss causes deep mixed layer over convection-free areas so that the mixed-layer temperatures have large horizontal fluctuations. Furthermore, fresh water flux exhibits larger spatial fluctuations than surface heat flux because heavy rainfall occurs over convective areas embedded in broad non-convective or clear areas, whereas diurnal signals over whole model areas yield high spatial correlation of surface heat flux. As a result, mixed-layer salinities contribute more to the density differences than do mixed-layer temperatures.

Description: The possibility of coupled modes in the extratropical North Atlantic has fascinated the climate community since 1960's. A significant aspect of such modes is an unstable air-sea interaction, also called positive feedback, where disturbances between the atmosphere and ocean grow unbound. If a delayed response exists before the negative feedback takes effect, an oscillatory behaviour will develop. Here we explore the relationship between heat flux (positive upward) and sea surface temperature (SST). Positive feedback is characterized by a cross-correlation between the two where correlation maintains a negative sign whether SST or heat flux leads. We use model results and observations to argue that in the North Atlantic there exist regions with positive feedback. The two main locations coincide with the well-known north-south SST dipole where anomalies of opposite sign occupy areas east of Florida and north-east of Newfoundland. We show that oceanic dynamics, wave propagation and advection, give rise to oceanic anomalies in these regions. Subsequently these anomalies are amplified by atmosphere- ocean interaction: thus a positive feedback.

Description: Instrumentation and retrieval algorithms are described which use the forward, or bistatically scattered range-coded signals from the Global Positioning System (GPS) radio navigation system for the measurement of sea surface roughness. This roughness is known to be related directly to the surface wind speed. Experiments were conducted from aircraft along the TOPEX ground track, and over experimental surface truth buoys. These flights used a receiver capable of recording the cross correlation power in the reflected signal. The shape of this power distribution was then compared against analytical models derived from geometric optics. Two techniques for matching these functions were studied. The first recognized the most significant information content in the reflected signal is contained in the trailing edge slope of the waveform. The second attempted to match the complete shape of the waveform by approximating it as a series expansion and obtaining the nonlinear least squares estimate. Discussion is also presented on anomalies in the receiver operation and their identification and correction.

Description: Using the Penn State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale model, a westerly wind burst (WWB) that occurred during the period from 19 to 30 December 1992 over the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) has been simulated and compared with observation. This event is characterized by the presence of super cloud clusters and the occurrence of a major WWB that extended over the western and central Pacific Ocean. Although several of the observed convective systems were not precisely simulated by MM5, the model did capture many other observed characteristics, such as the explosive development of convection, the cyclonic circulation and the WWB. The WWB resulted from the coalescence of three types of tropical disturbances. The first type was a low-level westerly jet (LWJ) that developed at the equator and may be associated with the eastward propagation of an ISO (Intraseasonal Oscillation). The second type featured an easterly wave-like disturbance that originated in the south central Pacific Ocean and propagated westward. Finally, the third type involved a cross-equatorial flow that deflected Northern Hemispheric easterlies into the Southern Hemisphere and may be caused by inertial instability. These disturbances worked in concert, resulting in intense convection over the TOGA COARE region. Once intense convection developed, a large-scale circulation was produced over the western Pacific warm pool, propagated eastward, and initiated a WWB.

Description: A model combining the rate of carbon assimilation with water and energy balance equations has been run using satellite and ancillary data for a period of 60 months (January 1986 to December 1990). Calculations for the Gediz basin area give mean annual evaporation as 395 mm, which is composed of 45% transpiration, 42% soil evaporation and 13% interception. The coefficient of interannual variation of evaporation is found to be 6%, while that for precipitation and net radiation are, respectively, 16% and 2%, illustrating that net radiation has an important effect in modulating interannual variation of evaporation. The mean annual water use efficiency (i.e., the ratio of net carbon accumulation and total evaporation) is ca. 1 g/sq m/mm, and has a coefficient of interannual variation of 5%. A comparison of the mean water use efficiency with field observations suggests that evaporation over the area is utilized well for biomass production. The reference crop evaporation for irrigated areas has annual mean and coefficient of variation as, respectively, 1176 mm and 3%. The total evaporation during three summer months of peak evaporation (June-August) is estimated to be about 575 mm for irrigated crops like maize and cotton. Seasonal variations of the fluxes are presented.

Description: An overview is given of the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) Arctic Clouds Experiment that was conducted in the Arctic during April through July, 1998. The principal goal of the field experiment was to gather the data needed to examine the impact of arctic clouds on the radiation exchange between the surface, atmosphere, and space, and to study how the surface influences the evolution of boundary layer clouds. The observations will be used to evaluate and improve climate model parameterizations of cloud and radiation processes, satellite remote sensing of cloud and surface characteristics, and understanding of cloud-radiation feedbacks in the Arctic. The experiment utilized four research aircraft that flew over surface-based observational sites in the Arctic Ocean and Barrow, Alaska. In this paper we describe the programmatic and science objectives of the project, the experimental design (including research platforms and instrumentation), conditions that were encountered during the field experiment, and some highlights of preliminary observations, modelling, and satellite remote sensing studies.

Description: Reliable information on the distribution of precipitation at high temporal resolution (〈l hour) is essential for understanding the characteristics of convection in a region. Cloud-top infrared (IR) brightness temperatures from geostationary platforms have a weak physical connection to precipitation, however, their high sampling frequency makes them attractive in studying the temporal evolution of cloudiness and convection. On the other hand, microwave-based (MW) observations from lower sampling-frequency polar-orbiting platforms can provide a better physical connection to precipitating hydrometeors. A recent invention in rainfall estimation from a combination of these two sensors involves adjustment of IR estimates using co-existing MW-based precipitation data on a monthly basis. These techniques use the MW data to remove systematic errors in IR rain estimates, while retaining the high sampling frequency of IR observations (approximately every 15-30 minutes). Perhaps of even greater importance to climate and hydrometeorological applications is the separation of mesoscale convective systems into a portion of rain associated with deep convection (hereafter called convective precipitation), and to precipitation falling from more widespread anvil clouds. This current work focuses on estimation of tropical convective and stratiform rainfall. We attempt to answer fundamental questions, such as : is estimation of convective and stratiform precipitation from IR feasible? If so, how accurate can this be? What is the scale dependence of the IR algorithm's performance? To address these questions, quantitative comparisons are performed between coincident IR- and MW-based instantaneous rainfall estimates at the MW 85 Ghz resolution (-12.5 km). Our data set spans a three-month period (January to March, 1996) of MW and IR observations over northern South America (15N-15S and 35W-80W), which includes the Amazon river basin.

Description: Isotope concentrations in polar ice cores have long been used to estimate paleotemperatures. Underlying the use of this "isotope paleothermometer" is the assumption that the relationship between surface temperature and isotope concentration over time at a single geographical point is the same as that observed over space during the present-day climate. The validity of this assumption may in fact be compromised by several factors related to climate change. The specific factor studied in this paper involves the evaporative sources for polar precipitation. Climatic changes in the relative strengths of these sources would imply a need for a recalibration of the paleothermometer. To quantify such changes, we performed two GCM simulations, one of present-day climate and the other of the climate during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), roughly 18000 years ago. Evaporative sources of Antarctic precipitation were established using special tracer diagnostics. Results suggest that polar precipitation during the LGM does indeed consist of (relatively) more water from tropical oceans, a direct reflection of the LGM's increased equator-to-pole temperature gradient and its increased sea ice extent, which reduces high latitude evaporation. This result implies that an uncalibrated ice core paleothermometer would produce LGM temperatures that are biased slightly low. Because LGM boundary conditions are still under debate, we performed a third GCM simulation using a modified set of LGM boundary conditions. Using this simulation gives some qualitatively similar results, though the tropical contribution is not quite as high. Uncertainties in the LGM boundary conditions does hamper success in calibrating the paleothermometer.

Description: We discuss the effect of horizontal fluxes on the accuracy of a conventional plane-parallel radiative transfer calculation for a single pixel, known as the Independent Pixel Approximation (IPA) at absorbing wavelengths. Vertically integrated horizontal fluxes can be represented as a sum of three components; each component is the IPA accuracy on a pixel-by-pixel basis for reflectance, transmittance and absorptance, respectively. We show that IPA accuracy for reflectance always improves with more absorption, while the IPA accuracy for transmittance is less sensitive to the changes in absorption: with respect to the non-absorbing case, it may first deteriorate for weak absorption and then improve again for strongly absorbing wavelengths. EPA accuracy for absorptance always deteriorates with more absorption. As a result, vertically integrated horizontal fluxes, as a sum of IPA accuracies for reflectance, transmittance and absorptance, increase with more absorption. Finally, the question of correlations between horizontal fluxes, IPA uncertainties and radiative smoothing is addressed using wavenumber spectra of radiation fields reflected from or transmitted through fractal clouds.

Description: Advantages introduced by Raman lidar systems for cloud base determination during precipitating periods are explored using two case studies of light rain and virga conditions. A combination of the Raman lidar derived profiles of water vapor mixing ratio and aerosol scattering ratio, together with the Raman scattered signals from liquid drops, can minimize or even eliminate some of the problems associated with cloud boundary detection using elastic backscatter lidars.

Description: A series of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulations, spanning a total of several thousand years, is used to assess the impact of land-surface and ocean boundary conditions on the seasonal-to-interannual variability and predictability of precipitation in a coupled modeling system. In the first half of the analysis, which focuses on precipitation variance, we show that the contributions of ocean, atmosphere, and land processes to this variance can be characterized, to first order, with a simple linear model. This allows a clean separation of the contributions, from which we find: (1) land and ocean processes have essentially different domains of influence, i.e., the amplification of precipitation variance by land-atmosphere feedback is most important outside of the regions (mainly in the tropics) that are most affected by sea surface temperatures; and (2) the strength of land-atmosphere feedback in a given region is largely controlled by the relative availability of energy and water there. In the second half of the analysis, the potential for seasonal-to-interannual predictability of precipitation is quantified under the assumption that all relevant surface boundary conditions (in the ocean and on land) are known perfectly into the future. We find that the chaotic nature of the atmospheric circulation imposes fundamental limits on predictability in many extratropical regions. Associated with this result is an indication that soil moisture initialization or assimilation in a seasonal-to-interannual forecasting system would be beneficial mainly in transition zones between dry and humid regions.

Description: A cloud and aerosol radiative forcing and physical process study involving active laser and radar profiling with a combination of passive radiometric sounders and imagers would use the space station as an observation platform. The objectives are to observe the full three dimensional cloud and aerosol structure and the associated physical parameters leading to a complete measurement of radiation forcing processes. The instruments would include specialized radar and lidar for cloud and aerosol profiling, visible, infrared and microwave imaging radiometers with comprehensive channels for cloud and aerosol observation and specialized sounders. The low altitude,. available power and servicing capability of the space station are significant advantages for the active sensors and multiple passive instruments.

Description: The beginning of the Bolling-Allerod warm period is marked in Greenland ice by an abrupt rise in (Delta)O-18, an abrupt drop in dust rain, and an abrupt increase in atmospheric methane content. The surface waters in the Norwegian Sea underwent a simultaneous abrupt warming. At about this time, a major change in the pattern of global rainfall occurred. Lake Victoria (latitude 0deg), which prior to this time was dry, was rejuvenated. The Red Sea, which prior to this time was hypersaline, freshened. Lake Lahontan, which prior to this time had achieved its largest size, desiccated. Whereas the chronologic support for the abruptness of the hydrologic changes is firm only for the Red Sea, in keeping with evidence obtained well away from the nor-them Atlantic in the Santa Barbara basin and the Cariaco Trench, the onset and end of the millennial-duration climate events were globally abrupt. If so, the proposed linkage between the size of African closed basin lakes and insolation cycles must be reexamined.

Description: Aircraft and ground-based radar data from the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere Coupled-Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) show that convective systems are not always vertical. Instead, many are tilted from vertical. Satellite passive microwave radiometers observe the atmosphere at a viewing angle. For example, the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) on Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) on the TRMM satellite have an incident angle of about 50deg. Thus, the brightness temperature measured from one direction of tilt may be different than that viewed from the opposite direction due to the different optical depth. This paper presents the investigation of passive microwave brightness temperatures of tilted convective systems. To account for the effect of tilt, a 3-D backward Monte Carlo radiative transfer model has been applied to a simple tilted cloud model and a dynamically evolving cloud model to derive the brightness temperature. The radiative transfer results indicate that brightness temperature varies when the viewing angle changes because of the different optical depth. The tilt increases the displacements between high 19 GHz brightness temperature (Tb(sub 19)) due to liquid emission from lower level of cloud and the low 85 GHz brightness temperature (Tb(sub 85)) due to ice scattering from upper level of cloud. As the resolution degrades, the difference of brightness temperature due to the change of viewing angle decreases dramatically. The dislocation between Tb(sub 19) and Tb(sub 85), however, remains prominent.

Description: The phase relation between the perturbation kinetic energy (K') associated with the tropical convection and the horizontal-mean moist available potential energy (bar-P) associated with environmental conditions is investigated by an energetics analysis of a numerical experiment. This experiment is performed using a 2-D cloud resolving model forced by the TOGA-COARE derived vertical velocity. The imposed upward motion leads to a decrease of bar-P directly through the associated vertical advective cooling, and to an increase of K' directly through cloud related processes, feeding the convection. The maximum K' and its maximum growth rate lags and leads, respectively, the maximum imposed large-scale upward motion by about 1-2 hours, indicating that convection is phase locked with large-scale forcing. The dominant life cycle of the simulated convection is about 9 hours, whereas the time scales of the imposed large-scale forcing are longer than the diurnal cycle. In the convective events, maximum growth of K' leads maximum decay of the perturbation moist available potential energy (P') by about 3 hours through vertical heat transport by perturbation circulation, and perturbation cloud heating. Maximum decay of P' leads maximum decay of bar-P by about one hour through the perturbation radiative, processes, the horizontal-mean cloud heating, and the large-scale vertical advective cooling. Therefore, maximum gain of K' occurs about 4-5 hours before maximum decay of bar-P.

Description: Abstract A technique is described to use Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) combined radar/radiometer information to adjust geosynchronous infrared satellite data (the TRMM Adjusted GOES Precipitation Index, or TRMM AGPI). The AGPI is then merged with rain gauge information (mostly over land; the TRMM merged product) to provide fine- scale (1 deg latitude/longitude) pentad and monthly analyses, respectively. The TRMM merged estimates are 10% higher than those from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) when integrated over the tropical oceans (37 deg N-S) for 1998, with 20% differences noted in the most heavily raining areas. In the dry subtropics the TRMM values are smaller than the GPCP estimates. The TRMM merged-product tropical-mean estimates for 1998 are 3.3 mm/ day over ocean and 3.1 mm/ day over land and ocean combined. Regional differences are noted between the western and eastern Pacific Ocean maxima when TRMM and GPCP are compared. In the eastern Pacific rain maximum the TRMM and GPCP mean values are nearly equal, very different from the other tropical rainy areas where TRMM merged-product estimates are higher. This regional difference may indicate that TRMM is better at taking in to account the vertical structure of the rain systems and the difference in structure between the western and eastern (shallower) Pacific convection. Comparisons of these TRMM merged analysis estimates with surface data sets shows varied results; the bias is near zero when compared to western Pacific Ocean atoll raingauge data, but significantly positive compared to Kwajalein radar estimates (adjusted by rain gauges). Over land the TRMM estimates also show a significant positive bias. The inclusion of gauge information in the final merged product significantly reduces the bias over land, as expected. The monthly precipitation patterns produced by the TRMM merged data process clearly show the evolution of the ENSO tropical precipitation pattern from early 1998 (El Nino) through early 1999 (La Nina) and beyond. The El Nino minus La Nina difference map shows the eastern Pacific maximum, the maritime continent minima and other tropical and mid-latitude features. The differences in the Pacific are very similar to those detected by the GPCP analyses. However, summing the El Nino minus La Nina differences over the global tropical oceans yields divergent answers from TRMM, GPCP and other estimates. This emphasizes the need for additional validation and analysis before it is feasible to understand the relations between global precipitation anomalies and Pacific Ocean ENSO temperature changes.

Description: The MM5 mesoscale model is used to simulate Hurricane Bob (1991) using grids nested to high resolution (4 km). Tests are conducted to determine the sensitivity of the simulation to the available planetary boundary layer parameterizations, including the bulk-aerodynamic, Blackadar, Medium-RanGe Forecast (MRF) model, and Burk-Thompson boundary-layer schemes. Significant sensitivity is seen, with minimum central pressures varying by up to 17 mb. The Burk-Thompson and bulk-aerodynamic boundary-layer schemes produced the strongest storms while the MRF scheme produced the weakest storm. Precipitation structure of the simulated hurricanes also varied substantially with the boundary layer parameterizations. Diagnostics of boundary-layer variables indicated that the intensity of the simulated hurricanes generally increased as the ratio of the surface exchange coefficients for heat and momentum, C(sub h)/C(sub M), although the manner in which the vertical mixing takes place was also important. Findings specific to the boundary-layer schemes include: 1) the MRF scheme produces mixing that is too deep and causes drying of the lower boundary layer in the inner-core region of the hurricane; 2) the bulk-aerodynamic scheme produces mixing that is probably too shallow, but results in a strong hurricane because of a large value of C(sub h)/C(sub M) (approximately 1.3); 3) the MRF and Blackadar schemes are weak partly because of smaller surface moisture fluxes that result in a reduced value of C(sub h)/C(sub M) (approximately 0.7); 4) the Burk-Thompson scheme produces a strong storm with C(sub h)/C(sub M) approximately 1; and 5) the formulation of the wind-speed dependence of the surface roughness parameter, z(sub 0), is important for getting appropriate values of the surface exchange coefficients in hurricanes based upon current estimates of these parameters.

Description: The last decade has seen tremendous growth in cloud dynamical and microphysical models that are able to simulate storms and storm systems with very high spatial resolution, typically of the order of a few kilometers. The fairly realistic distributions of cloud and hydrometeor properties that these models generate has in turn led to a renewed interest in the three-dimensional microwave radiative transfer modeling needed to understand the effect of cloud and rainfall inhomogeneities upon microwave observations. Monte Carlo methods, and particularly backwards Monte Carlo methods have shown themselves to be very desirable due to the quick convergence of the solutions. Unfortunately, backwards Monte Carlo methods are not well suited to treat polarized radiation. This study reviews the existing Monte Carlo methods and presents a new polarized Monte Carlo radiative transfer code. The code is based on a forward scheme but uses aliasing techniques to keep the computational requirements equivalent to the backwards solution. Radiative transfer computations have been performed using a microphysical-dynamical cloud model and the results are presented together with the algorithm description.

Description: In this study two global observational precipitation products, namely the Global Precipitation Climatology Project's (GPCP) community data set and CPC's Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), are compared on global to regional scales in the context of the different satellite and gauge data inputs and merger techniques. The average annual global precipitation rates, calculated from data common in regions/times to both GPCP and CMAP, are similar for the two. However, CMAP is larger than GPCP in the tropics because: (1) CMAP values in the tropics are adjusted month-by month to atoll gauge data in the West Pacific, which are greater than any satellite observations used; and (2) CMAP is produced from a linear combination of data inputs, which tends to give higher values than the microwave emission estimates alone to which the inputs are adjusted in the GPCP merger over the ocean. The CMAP month-to-month adjustment to the atolls also appears to introduce temporal variations throughout the tropics which are not detected by satellite-only products. On the other hand, GPCP is larger than CMAP in the high-latitude oceans, where CMAP includes the scattering based microwave estimates which are consistently smaller than the emission estimates used in both techniques. Also, in the polar regions GPCP transitions from the emission microwave estimates to the larger TOVS-based estimates. Finally, in high-latitude land areas GPCP can be significantly larger than CMAP because GPCP attempts to correct the gauge estimates for errors due to wind loss effects.

Description: We describe the application of the unbiased sequential analysis algorithm developed by Dee and da Silva (1998) to the GEOS DAS moisture analysis. The algorithm estimates the persistent component of model error using rawinsonde observations and adjusts the first-guess moisture field accordingly. Results of two seasonal data assimilation cycles show that moisture analysis bias is almost completely eliminated in all observed regions. The improved analyses cause a sizable reduction in the 6h-forecast bias and a marginal improvement in the error standard deviations.

Description: In order to learn more about the Martian polar caps, it is important to compare and contrast the behavior of both frozen H2O and CO2 in different parts of the electromagnetic spectrum. Relatively little attention has been given, thus far, to observing the thermal microwave part of the spectrum. In this experiment, passive microwave radiation emanating from within a 33 cm snowpack was measured with a 35 GHz hand-held radiometer, and in addition to the natural snow measurements, the radiometer was used to measure the microwave emission and scattering from layers of manufactured CO2 (dry ice). A 1 m x 2 m plate of aluminum sheet metal was positioned beneath the natural snow so that microwave emissions from the underlying soil layers would be minimized. Compared to the natural snow crystals, results for the dry ice layers exhibit lower' microwave brightness temperatures for similar thicknesses, regardless of the incidence angle of the radiometer. For example, at 50 degree H (horizontal polarization) and with a covering of 21 cm of snow and 18 cm of dry ice, the brightness temperatures were 150 K and 76 K, respectively. When the snow depth was 33 cm, the brightness temperature was 144 K, and when the total thickness of the dry ice was 27 cm, the brightness temperature was 86 K. The lower brightness temperatures are due to a combination of the lower physical temperature and the larger crystal sizes of the commercial CO2 Crystals compared to the snow crystals. As the crystal size approaches the size of the microwave wavelength, it scatters microwave radiation more effectively, thus lowering the brightness temperature. The dry ice crystals in this experiment were about an order of magnitude larger than the snow crystals and three orders of magnitude larger than the CO2 Crystals produced in the cold stage of a scanning electron microscope. Spreading soil, approximately 2 mm in thickness, on the dry ice appeared to have no effect on the brightness temperatures.

Description: Variations of HDO and H2O-18 concentrations are observed in precipitation both on a geographical and on a temporal basis. These variations, resulting from successive isotopic fractionation processes at each phase change of water during its atmospheric cycle, are well documented through the IAEA/WMO network and other sources. Isotope concentrations are, in middle and high latitudes, linearly related to the annual mean temperature at the precipitation site. Paleoclimatologists have used this relationship to infer paleotemperatures from isotope paleodata extractable from ice cores, deep groundwater and other such sources. For this application to be valid, however, the spatial relationship must also hold in time at a given location as the location undergoes a series of climatic changes. Progress in water isotope modeling aimed at examining and evaluating this assumption has been recently reviewed with a focus on polar regions and, more specifically, on Greenland. This article was largely based on the results obtained using the isotopic version of the NASA/GISS Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) fitted with isotope tracer diagnostics. We extend this review in comparing the results of two different isotopic AGCMs (NASA/GISS and ECHAM) and in examining, with a more global perspective, the validity of the above assumption, i.e. the equivalence of the spatial and temporal isotope-temperature relationship. We also examine recent progress made in modeling the relationship between the conditions prevailing in moisture source regions for precipitation and the deuterium-excess of that precipitation.

Description: We conducted numerical simulations of the wind-forcing of the sea level variations in the North Sea using a barotropic ocean model with realistic geography, bathymetry, and boundary conditions, to examine the forcing of the 14-month "pole tide" which is known to be strong along the Denmark- Netherlands coast. The simulation input is the monthly-mean surface wind stress field from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis for the 40-year period 1958-1997. The output sea level response was then compared with 10 coastal tide gauge records from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL). Besides the strong seasonal variations, several prominent quasi-periodicities exist at around 7 years, 3 years, 14 months, 9 months, and 6.5 months. Correlation and spectral analyses show remarkable agreement between the model output and the observations, particularly in the 14-month, or Chandler period band. The latter indicates that the enhanced pole tide found in the North Sea along the Denmark-Netherlands coast is actually the coastal setup response to wind stress forcing with a periodicity of 14 months. We find no need to invoke a geophysical explanation involving resonance-enhancement of pole tide in the North Sea to explain the observations.

Description: Recognizing the importance of rain in the tropics and the accompanying latent heat release, NASA for the U.S. and NASDA for Japan have partnered in the design, construction and flight of an Earth Probe satellite to measure tropical rainfall and calculate the associated heating. Primary mission goals are 1) the understanding of crucial links in climate variability by the hydrological cycle, 2) improvement in the large-scale models of weather and climate 3) Improvement in understanding cloud ensembles and their impacts on larger scale circulations. The linkage with the tropical oceans and landmasses are also emphasized. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was launched in November 1997 with fuel enough to obtain a four to five year data set of rainfall over the global tropics from 37'N to 37'S. This paper reports progress from launch date through the spring of 1999. The data system and its products and their access is described, as are the algorithms used to obtain the data. Some exciting early results from TRMM are described. Some important algorithm improvements are shown. These will be used in the first total data reprocessing, scheduled to be complete in early 2000. The reader is given information on how to access and use the data.

Description: Tropical rainfall affects the lives and economics of a majority of the Earth's population. Tropical rain systems, such as hurricanes, typhoons, and monsoons, are crucial to sustaining the livelihoods of those living in the tropics. Excess rainfall can cause floods and great property and crop damage, whereas too little rainfall can cause drought and crop failure. The latent heat release during the process of precipitation is a major source of energy that drives the atmospheric circulation. This latent heat can intensify weather systems, affecting weather thousands of kilometers away, thus making tropical rainfall an important indicator of atmospheric circulation and short-term climate change. Tropical forests and the underlying soils are major sources of many of the atmosphere's trace constituents. Together, the forests and the atmosphere act as a water-energy regulating system. Most of the rainfall is returned to the atmosphere through evaporation and transpiration, and the atmospheric trace constituents take part in the recycling process. Hence, the hydrological cycle provides a direct link between tropical rainfall and the global cycles of carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur, all important trace materials for the Earth's system. Because rainfall is such an important component in the interactions between the ocean, atmosphere, land, and the biosphere, accurate measurements of rainfall are crucial to understanding the workings of the Earth-atmosphere system. The large spatial and temporal variability of rainfall systems, however, poses a major challenge to estimating global rainfall. So far, there has been a lack of rain gauge networks, especially over the oceans, which points to satellite measurement as the only means by which global observation of rainfall can be made. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), jointly sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) of the United States and the National Space Development Agency (NASDA) of Japan, provides visible, infrared, and microwave observations of tropical and subtropical rain systems.The satellite observations are complemented by ground radar and rain gauge measurements to validate satellite rain estimation techniques. Goddard Space Flight Center's involvement includes the observatory, four instruments, integration and testing of the observatory, data processing and distribution, and satellite operations. TRMM has a design lifetime of three years. Data generated from TRMM and archived at the GDAAC are useful not only for hydrologists, atmospheric scientists, and climatologists, but also for the health community studying infectious diseases, the ocean research community, and the agricultural community.

Description: Utilizing multi-spectral, dual-polarization Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) radiometer measurements, we have developed in this study a method to retrieve average rain rate, R(sub f(sub R)), in a mesoscale grid box of 2deg x 3deg over land. The key parameter of this method is the fractional rain area, f(sub R), in that grid box, which is determined with the help of a threshold on the 85 GHz scattering depression 0 deduced from the SSM/I data. In order to demonstrate the usefulness of this method, nine-months of R(sub f(sub R))are retrieved from SSM/I data over three grid boxes in the Northeastern United States. These retrievals are then compared with the corresponding ground-truth-average rain rate, R(sub g), deduced from 15-minute rain gauges. Based on nine months of rain rate retrievals over three grid boxes, we find that R(sub f(sub R)can explain about 64 % of the variance contained in R(sub g). A similar evaluation of the grid-box-average rain rates R(sub GSCAT) and R(sub SRL), given by the NASA/GSCAT and NOAA/SRL rain retrieval algorithms, is performed. This evaluation reveals that R(sub GSCAT) and R(sub SRL) can explain only about 42 % of the variance contained in R(sub g). In our method, a threshold on the 85 GHz scattering depression is used primarily to determine the fractional rain area in a mesoscale grid box. Quantitative information pertaining to the 85 GHz scattering depression in the grid box is disregarded. In the NASA/GSCAT and NOAA/SRL methods on the other hand, this quantitative information is included. Based on the performance of all three methods, we infer that the magnitude of the scattering depression is a poor indicator of rain rate. Furthermore, from maps based on the observations made by SSM/I on land and ocean we find that there is a significant redundancy in the information content of the SSM/I multi-spectral observations. This leads us to infer that observations of SSM/I at 19 and 37 GHz add only marginal information to that given by 85 GHz scattering depression. As with other methods, the area-average rain retrieval method developed in this study needs tuning with radar and/or rain gauge observations. In the TRMM mission, the microwave radiometer rain retrieval algorithm can be tuned with TRMM radar observations. Since the radiometer has about 3.5 times wider spatial coverage compared to the radar in the TRMM mission, such an algorithm can be useful to extend geographically the rain information provided by the TRMM Precipitation Radar.

Description: Latent heating profiles associated with three (TOGA COARE) Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment active convective episodes (December 10-17 1992; December 19-27 1992; and February 9-13 1993) are examined using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) Model and retrieved by using the Goddard Convective and Stratiform Heating (CSH) algorithm . The following sources of rainfall information are input into the CSH algorithm: Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/1), Radar and the GCE model. Diagnostically determined latent heating profiles calculated using 6 hourly soundings are used for validation. The GCE model simulated rainfall and latent heating profiles are in excellent agreement with those estimated by soundings. In addition, the typical convective and stratiform heating structures (or shapes) are well captured by the GCE model. Radar measured rainfall is smaller than that both estimated by the GCE model and SSM/I in all three different COARE IFA periods. SSM/I derived rainfall is more than the GCE model simulated for the December 19-27 and February 9-13 periods, but is in excellent agreement with the GCE model for the December 10-17 period. The GCE model estimated stratiform amount is about 50% for December 19-27, 42% for December 11-17 and 56% for the February 9-13 case. These results are consistent with large-scale analyses. The accurate estimates of stratiform amount is needed for good latent heating retrieval. A higher (lower) percentage of stratiform rain can imply a maximum heating rate at a higher (lower) altitude. The GCE model always simulates more stratiform rain (10 to 20%) than the radar for all three convective episodes. SSM/I derived stratiform amount is about 37% for December 19-27, 48% for December 11-17 and 41% for the February 9-13 case. Temporal variability of CSH algorithm retrieved latent heating profiles using either GCE model simulated or radar estimated rainfall and stratiform amount is in good agreement with that diagnostically determined for all three periods. However, less rainfall and a smaller stratiform percentage estimated by radar resulted in a weaker (underestimated) latent heating profile and a lower maximum latent heating level compared to those determined diagnostically. Rainfall information from SSM/I can not retrieve individual convective events due to poor temporal sampling. Nevertheless, this study suggests that a good 4r, rainfall retrieval from SSM/I for a convective event always leads to a good latent heating retrieval. Sensitivity testing has been performed and the results indicate that the SSM/I derived time averaged stratiform amount may be underestimated for December 19-27. Time averaged heating profiles derived from SSM/I, however, are not in bad agreement with those derived by soundings for the December 10-17 convective period. The heating retrievals may be more accurate for longer time scales provided there is no bias in the sampling.

Description: Cloud-integrated attenuated backscatter from observations with the Lidar In-Space Technology Experiment (LITE) was studied over a range of cirrus clouds capping some extensive mesoscale convective systems (MCSS) in the Tropical West Pacific. The integrated backscatter when the cloud is completely attenuating, and when corrected for multiple scattering, is a measure of the cloud particle backscatter phase function. Four different cases of MCS were studied. The first was very large, very intense, and fully attenuating, with cloud tops extending to 17 km and a maximum lidar pulse penetration of about 3 km. It also exhibited the highest integrated attenuated isotropic backscatter, with values in the 532-nm channel of up to 2.5 near the center of the system, falling to 0.6 near the edges. The second MCS had cloud tops that extended to 14.8 km. Although MCS2 was almost fully attenuating, the pulse penetration into the cloud was up to 7 km and the MCS2 had a more diffuse appearance than MCS1. The integrated backscatter values were much lower in this system but with some systematic variations between 0.44 and 0.75. The third MCS was Typhoon Melissa. Values of integrated backscatter in tt-ds case varied from 1.64 near the eye of the typhoon to between 0.44 and 1.0 in the areas of typhoon outflow and in the 532-nm channel. Mean pulse penetration through the cloud top was 2-3 km, the lowest penetration of any of the systems. The fourth MCS consisted of a region of outflow from Typhoon Melissa. The cloud was semitransparent for more than half of the image time. During that time, maximum cloud depth was about 7 km. The integrated backscatter varied from about 0.38 to 0.63 in the 532-nm channel when the cloud was fully attenuating. In some isolated cirrus between the main systems, a plot of integrated backscatter against one minus the two-way transmittance gave a linear dependence with a maximum value of 0.35 when the clouds were fully attenuating. The effective backscatter-to-extinction ratios, when allowing for different multiple-scattering factors from space, were often within the range of those observed with ground-based lidar. Exceptions occurred near the centers of the most intense convection, where values were measured that were considerably higher than those in cirrus observed from the surface. In this case, the values were more compatible with theoretical values for perfectly formed hexagonal columns or plates. The large range in theoretically calculated back- scatter-to-extinction ratio and integrated multiple-scattering factor precluded a closer interpretation in terms of cloud microphysics.

Description: The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) spacecraft scanning thermistor bolometer sensors measure earth radiances in the broadband shortwave solar (O.3 - 5.0 micron and total (0.3 to 100 microns) spectral bands as well as in the 8-12 microns water vapor window spectral band. On November 27, 1997, the launch of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft placed the first set of CERES sensors into orbit, and 30 days later, the sensors initiated operational measurements of the earth radiance fields. In 1998, the Earth Observing System morning (EOS-AM1) spacecraft will place the second and third sensor sets into orbit. The prelaunch CERES sensors' count conversion coefficients (gains and zero-radiance offsets) were determined in vacuum ground facilities. The gains were tied radiometrically to the International Temperature Scale of 1990 (ITS-90). The gain determinations included the spectral properties (reflectance, transmittance, emittance, etc.) of both the sources and sensors as well as the in-field-of-view (FOV) and out-of-FOV sensor responses. The resulting prelaunch coefficients for the TRMM and EOS-AM1 sensors are presented. Inflight calibration systems and on-orbit calibration approaches are described, which are being used to determine the temporal stabilities of the sensors' gains and offsets from prelaunch calibrations through on-orbit measurements. Analyses of the TRMM prelaunch and on-orbit calibration results indicate that the sensors have retained their ties to ITS-90 at accuracy levels better than /- 0.3% between the 1995 prelaunch and 1997 on-orbit calibrations.

Description: A parametric study of the instantaneous radiative impact of contrails is presented using three different radiative transfer models for a series of model atmospheres and cloud parameters. Contrails are treated as geometrically and optically thin plane parallel homogeneous cirrus layers in a static atmospheres The ice water content is varied as a function of ambient temperature. The model atmospheres include tropical, mid-latitude, and subarctic summer and winter atmospheres Optically thin contrails cause a positive net forcing at top of the atmosphere. At the surface the radiative forcing is negative during daytime. The forcing increases with the optical depth and the amount of contrail cover. At the top of the atmosphere a mean contrail cover of 0.1% with average optical depth of 0.2 to 0.5 causes about 0.01 to 0.03 W/m(exp 2)a daily mean instantaneous radiative forcing. Contrails cool the surface during the day and heat the surface during the night, and hence reduce the daily temperature amplitude The net effect depends strongly on the daily variation of contrail cloud cover. The indirect radiative forcing due to particle changes in natural cirrus clouds may be of the same magnitude as the direct one due to additional cover.

Description: Photon transport in a multiple scattering medium is critically dependent on scattering statistics, in particular the average number of scatterings. A superposition technique is derived to accurately determine the average number of scatterings encountered by reflected and transmitted photons within arbitrary layers in plane-parallel, vertically inhomogeneous clouds. As expected, the resulting scattering number profiles are highly dependent on cloud particle absorption and solar/viewing geometry. The technique uses efficient adding and doubling radiative transfer procedures, avoiding traditional time-intensive Monte Carlo methods. Derived superposition formulae are applied to a variety of geometries and cloud models, and selected results are compared with Monte Carlo calculations. Cloud remote sensing techniques that use solar reflectance or transmittance measurements generally assume a homogeneous plane-parallel cloud structure. The scales over which this assumption is relevant, in both the vertical and horizontal, can be obtained from the superposition calculations. Though the emphasis is on photon transport in clouds, the derived technique is applicable to any scattering plane-parallel radiative transfer problem, including arbitrary combinations of cloud, aerosol, and gas layers in the atmosphere.

Description: The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) is an international field experiment with the objective to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the Asian summer monsoon in relation to fluctuation of the regional hydrologic cycle over Southeast Asian, southern East Asia, aiming at improving monsoon prediction. In this article, we present a description of the major meteorological observation platforms during the Intensive Observing Periods (IOP) of SCSMEX. We also provide highlights of early results and discussions of the role of SCSMEX in providing valuable in-situ data for calibration of satellite rainfall estimate from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Preliminary results indicate that there are distinctive stages in the onset of the South China Sea monsoon including possibly strong influences from extratropical systems as well as from convection over the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal. There are some tantalizing evidence of complex interactions between the supercloud cluster development over the Indian Ocean, advancing southwest monsoon flow over the South China Sea, midlatitude disturbances and the western Pacific subtropical high, possibly contributing to the disastrous flood over Yangtze River Basin in China during June 1998.

Description: In this study gridded observed precipitation data sets are used to construct rainfall-based ENSO indices. The monthly El Nino and La Nina Indices (EI and LI) measure the steepest zonal gradient of precipitation anomalies between the equatorial Pacific and the Maritime Continent. This is accomplished by spatially averaging precipitation anomalies using a spatial boxcar filter, finding the maximum and minimum averages within a Pacific and Maritime Continent domain for each month, and taking differences. EI and LI can be examined separately or combined to produce one ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI). ESPI is well correlated with traditional sea surface temperature and pressure indices, leading Nino 3.4. One advantage precipitation indices have over more conventional indices, is describing the strength and position of the Walker circulation. Examples are given of tracking the impact of ENSO events on the tropical precipitation fields.

Description: Arctic air masses have direct impacts on the weather and climatic extremes of midlatitude areas such as central North America. Arctic physical processes pose special and very important problems for global atmospheric models used for climate simulation and numerical weather prediction. At present, the observational database is inadequate to support research aimed at overcoming these problems. Three interdependent Arctic field programs now being planned will help to remedy this situation: SHEBA, which will operate an ice camp in the Arctic for a year-, ARM, which will supply instruments for use at the SHEBA ice camp and which will also conduct longer-term measurements near Barrow, Alaska; and FIRE, which will conduct one or more aircraft campaigns, in conjunction with remote-sensing investigations focused on the SHEBA ice camp. This paper provides an introductory overview of the physics of the Arctic from the perspective of large-scale modelers, outlines some of the modeling problems that arise in attempting to simulate these processes, and explains how the data to be provided by the three field programs can be used to test and improve large-scale models.

Description: Liu et al.[1998] (hereafter referred as LTH), superimposed wind velocity anomalies observed by the NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) on the map of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies observed by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) in the Pacific at the end of May 1997, and illustrated that the three regions of anomalous warming in the North Pacific Ocean are related to wind anomalies through different mechanisms.

Description: Aircraft icing endangers aviators, restricts surveillance opportunities, and reduces combat effectiveness.

Description: The Global Positioning System (GPS) constellation of satellites is revolutionizing the science and technology of the Earth's ionosphere.

Description: Altitude profiles of backscater ratio of the stratospheric background aerosol layer at altitudes between 15 and 25 km and high-altitude cirrus clouds at altitudes below 13 km are analyzed and discussed. Cirrus clouds were present on 16 of the 26 campaign nights.

Description: High energy cosmic rays may influence the formation of clouds, and thus can have an impact on weather and climate. Cosmic rays in the solar wind are incident on the magnetosphere boundary and are then transmitted through the magnetosphere and atmosphere to reach the upper troposphere.