ALBERT

Description: We present bathymetry and hydrological observations collected in the summer of 2014 from two fjord systems in southeastern Greenland with a multibeam sonar system. Our results provide a detailed bathymetric map of the fjord complex around the island of Skjoldungen in Skjoldungen Fjord and the outer part of Timmiarmiut Fjord and show far greater depths compared to the International Bathymetric Chart of the Arctic Ocean. The hydrography collected shows different properties in the fjords with the bottom water masses below 240 m in Timmiarmiut Fjord being 1–2 °C warmer than in the two fjords around Skjoldungen, but data also illustrate the influence of sills on the exchange of deeper water masses within fjords. Moreover, evidence of subglacial discharge in Timmiarmiut Fjord, which is consistent with satellite observations of ice mélange set into motion, adds to our increasing understanding of the distribution of subglacial meltwater.

Description: Ocean acidification resulting from the uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) by the ocean is considered a major threat to marine ecosystems. Here we examined the effects of ocean acidification on microbial community dynamics in the eastern Baltic Sea during the summer of 2012 when inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus were strongly depleted. Large-volume in situ mesocosms were employed to mimic present, future and far future CO2 scenarios. All six groups of phytoplankton enumerated by flow cytometry ( 〈  20 µm cell diameter) showed distinct trends in net growth and abundance with CO2 enrichment. The picoeukaryotic phytoplankton groups Pico-I and Pico-II displayed enhanced abundances, whilst Pico-III, Synechococcus and the nanoeukaryotic phytoplankton groups were negatively affected by elevated fugacity of CO2 (fCO2). Specifically, the numerically dominant eukaryote, Pico-I, demonstrated increases in gross growth rate with increasing fCO2 sufficient to double its abundance. The dynamics of the prokaryote community closely followed trends in total algal biomass despite differential effects of fCO2 on algal groups. Similarly, viral abundances corresponded to prokaryotic host population dynamics. Viral lysis and grazing were both important in controlling microbial abundances. Overall our results point to a shift, with increasing fCO2, towards a more regenerative system with production dominated by small picoeukaryotic phytoplankton.

Description: Very short-lived substances (VSLS) contribute as source gases significantly to the tropospheric and stratospheric bromine loading. At present, an estimated 25% of stratospheric bromine is of oceanic origin. In this study, we investigate how climate change may impact the ocean- atmosphere flux of brominated VSLS, their atmospheric transport, and chemical transformations and evaluate how these changes will affect stratospheric ozone over the 21st century. Under the assumption of fixed ocean water concentrations and RCP6.0 scenario, we find an increase of the ocean- atmosphere flux of brominated VSLS of about 8-10% by the end of the 21st century compared to present day. A decrease in the tropospheric mixing ratios of VSLS and an increase in the lower stratosphere are attributed to changes in atmospheric chemistry and transport. Our model simulations reveal that this increase is counteracted by a corresponding reduction of inorganic bromine. Therefore the total amount of bromine from VSLS in the stratosphere will not be changed by an increase in upwelling. Part of the increase of VSLS in the tropical lower stratosphere results from an increase in the corresponding tropopause height. As the depletion of stratospheric ozone due to bromine depends also on the availability of chlorine, we find the impact of bromine on stratospheric ozone at the end of the 21st century reduced compared to present day. Thus, these studies highlight the different factors influencing the role of brominated VSLS in a future climate

Description: Reanalysis data sets are widely used to understand atmospheric processes and past variability, and are often used to stand in as "observations" for comparisons with climate model output. Because of the central role of water vapor (WV) and ozone (O3) in climate change, it is important to understand how accurately and consistently these species are represented in existing global reanalyses. In this paper, we present the results of WV and O3 intercomparisons that have been performed as part of the SPARC (Stratosphere–troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP). The comparisons cover a range of timescales and evaluate both inter-reanalysis and observation-reanalysis differences. We also provide a systematic documentation of the treatment of WV and O3 in current reanalyses to aid future research and guide the interpretation of differences amongst reanalysis fields. The assimilation of total column ozone (TCO) observations in newer reanalyses results in realistic representations of TCO in reanalyses except when data coverage is lacking, such as during polar night. The vertical distribution of ozone is also relatively well represented in the stratosphere in reanalyses, particularly given the relatively weak constraints on ozone vertical structure provided by most assimilated observations and the simplistic representations of ozone photochemical processes in most of the reanalysis forecast models. However, significant biases in the vertical distribution of ozone are found in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in all reanalyses. In contrast to O3, reanalysis estimates of stratospheric WV are not directly constrained by assimilated data. Observations of atmospheric humidity are typically used only in the troposphere, below a specified vertical level at or near the tropopause. The fidelity of reanalysis stratospheric WV products is therefore mainly dependent on the reanalyses' representation of the physical drivers that influence stratospheric WV, such as temperatures in the tropical tropopause layer, methane oxidation, and the stratospheric overturning circulation. The lack of assimilated observations and known deficiencies in the representation of stratospheric transport in reanalyses result in much poorer agreement amongst observational and reanalysis estimates of stratospheric WV. Hence, stratospheric WV products from the current generation of reanalyses should generally not be used in scientific studies.

Description: The pre-industrial millennium is among the periods selected by the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) for experiments contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and the fourth phase of the PMIP (PMIP4). The past1000 transient simulations serve to investigate the response to (mainly) natural forcing under background conditions not too different from today, and to discriminate between forced and internally generated variability on interannual to centennial timescales. This paper describes the motivation and the experimental set-ups for the PMIP4-CMIP6 past1000 simulations, and discusses the forcing agents orbital, solar, volcanic, and land use/land cover changes, and variations in greenhouse gas concentrations. The past1000 simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium from 850 Common Era (CE) to 1849 CE have to be complemented by historical simulations (1850 to 2014 CE) following the CMIP6 protocol. The external forcings for the past1000 experiments have been adapted to provide a seamless transition across these time periods. Protocols for the past1000 simulations have been divided into three tiers. A default forcing data set has been defined for the Tier 1 (the CMIP6 past1000) experiment. However, the PMIP community has maintained the flexibility to conduct coordinated sensitivity experiments to explore uncertainty in forcing reconstructions as well as parameter uncertainty in dedicated Tier 2 simulations. Additional experiments (Tier 3) are defined to foster collaborative model experiments focusing on the early instrumental period and to extend the temporal range and the scope of the simulations. This paper outlines current and future research foci and common analyses for collaborative work between the PMIP and the observational communities (reconstructions, instrumental data).

Description: Oxygen optode measurements on floats and gliders suffer from a slow time response and various sources of drift in the calibration coefficients. Based on two dual-O2 Argo floats, we show how to post-correct for the effect of the optode's time response and give an update on optode in situ drift stability and in-air calibration. Both floats are equipped with an unpumped Aanderaa 4330 optode and a pumped Sea-Bird SBE63 optode. Response times for the pumped SBE63 were derived following Bittig et al. (2014) and the same methods were used to correct the time response bias. Using both optodes on each float, the time response regime of the unpumped Aanderaa optode was characterized more accurately than previously possible. Response times for the pumped SBE63 on profiling floats are in the range of 25–40 s, while they are between 60 and 95 s for the unpumped 4330 optode. Our parameterization can be employed to post-correct the slow optode time response on floats and gliders. After correction, both sensors agree to within 2–3 µmol kg−1 (median difference) in the strongest gradients (120 µmol kg−1 change over 8 min or 20 dbar) and better elsewhere. However, time response correction is only possible if measurement times are known, i.e., provided by the platform as well as transmitted and stored with the data. The O2 in-air measurements show a significant in situ optode drift of −0.40 and −0.27 % yr−1 over the available 2 and 3 years of deployment, respectively. Optode in-air measurements are systematically biased high during midday surfacings compared to dusk, dawn, and nighttime. While preference can be given to nighttime surfacings to avoid this in-air calibration bias, we suggest a parameterization of the daytime effect as a function of the Sun's elevation to be able to use all data and to better constrain the result. Taking all effects into account, calibration factors have an uncertainty of 0.1 %. In addition, in-air calibration factors vary by 0.1–0.2 % when using different reanalysis models as a reference. The overall accuracy that can be achieved following the proposed correction routines is better than 1 µmol kg−1.

Description: Conventional integration of Earth system and ocean models can accrue considerable computational expenses, particularly for marine biogeochemical applications. "Offline" numerical schemes in which only the biogeochemical tracers are time stepped and transported using a pre-computed circulation field can substantially reduce the burden and are thus an attractive alternative. One such scheme is the "transport matrix method" (TMM), which represents tracer transport as a sequence of sparse matrix–vector products that can be performed efficiently on distributed-memory computers. While the TMM has been used for a variety of geochemical and biogeochemical studies, to date the resulting solutions have not been comprehensively assessed against their "online" counterparts. Here, we present a detailed comparison of the two. It is based on simulations of the state-of-the-art biogeochemical sub-model embedded within the widely used coarse-resolution University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). The default, non-linear advection scheme was first replaced with a linear, third-order upwind-biased advection scheme to satisfy the linearity requirement of the TMM. Transport matrices were extracted from an equilibrium run of the physical model and subsequently used to integrate the biogeochemical model offline to equilibrium. The identical biogeochemical model was also run online. Our simulations show that offline integration introduces some bias to biogeochemical quantities through the omission of the polar filtering used in UVic ESCM and in the offline application of time-dependent forcing fields, with high latitudes showing the largest differences with respect to the online model. Differences in other regions and in the seasonality of nutrients and phytoplankton distributions are found to be relatively minor, giving confidence that the TMM is a reliable tool for offline integration of complex biogeochemical models. Moreover, while UVic ESCM is a serial code, the TMM can be run on a parallel machine with no change to the underlying biogeochemical code, thus providing orders of magnitude speed-up over the online model.

Description: The assessment of the ocean biota's role in climate climate change is often carried out with global biogeochemical ocean models that contain many components, and involve a high level of parametric uncertainty. Examination the models' fit to climatologies of inorganic tracers, after the models have been spun up to steady state, is a common, but computationally expensive procedure to assess model performance and reliability. Using new tools that have become available for global model assessment and calibration in steady state, this paper examines two different model types – a complex seven-component model (MOPS), and a very simple two-component model (RetroMOPS) – for their fit to dissolved quantities. Before comparing the models, a subset of their biogeochemical parameters has been optimised against annual mean nutrients and oxygen. Both model types fit the observations almost equally well. The simple model, which contains only nutrients and dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP), is sensitive to the parameterisation of DOP production and decay. The spatio-temporal decoupling of nitrogen and oxygen, and processes involved in their uptake and release, renders oxygen and nitrate valuable tracers for model calibration. In addition, the non-conservative nature of these tracers (with respect to their upper boundary condition) introduces the global bias as a useful additional constraint on model parameters. Dissolved organic phosphorous at the surface behaves antagonistically to phosphate, and suggests that observations of this tracer – although difficult to measure – may be an important asset for model calibration

Description: The balance in microbial net consumption of nitrogen and phosphorus was investigated in samples collected in two mesotrophic coastal environments: the Baltic Sea (Tvärminne field station) and the North Sea (Espegrend field station). For this, we have refined a bioassay based on the response in alkaline phosphatase activity (APA) over a matrix of combinations in nitrogen and phosphorus additions. This assay not only provides information on which element (N or P) is the primary limiting nutrient, but also gives a quantitative estimate for the excess of the secondary limiting element (P+ or N+, respectively), as well as the ratio of balanced net consumption of added N and P over short timescales (days). As expected for a Baltic Sea late spring–early summer situation, the Tvärminne assays (n =  5) indicated N limitation with an average P+ =  0.30 ± 0.10 µM-P, when incubated for 4 days. For short incubations (1–2 days), the Espegrend assays indicated P limitation, but the shape of the response surface changed with incubation time, resulting in a drift in parameter estimates toward N limitation. Extrapolating back to zero incubation time gave P limitation with N+ ≈  0.9 µM-N. The N : P ratio (molar) of nutrient net consumption varied considerably between investigated locations: from 2.3 ± 0.4 in the Tvärminne samples to 13 ± 5 and 32 ± 3 in two samples from Espegrend. Our assays included samples from mesocosm acidification experiments, but statistically significant effects of ocean acidification were not found by this method.

Description: The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) focuses on the physics and biogeochemistry of the ocean component of Earth system models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). OMIP aims to provide standard protocols and diagnostics for ocean models, while offering a forum to promote their common assessment and improvement. It also offers to compare solutions of the same ocean models when forced with reanalysis data (OMIP simulations) vs. when integrated within fully coupled Earth system models (CMIP6). Here we detail simulation protocols and diagnostics for OMIP's biogeochemical and inert chemical tracers. These passive-tracer simulations will be coupled to ocean circulation models, initialized with observational data or output from a model spin-up, and forced by repeating the 1948–2009 surface fluxes of heat, fresh water, and momentum. These so-called OMIP-BGC simulations include three inert chemical tracers (CFC-11, CFC-12, SF6) and biogeochemical tracers (e.g., dissolved inorganic carbon, carbon isotopes, alkalinity, nutrients, and oxygen). Modelers will use their preferred prognostic BGC model but should follow common guidelines for gas exchange and carbonate chemistry. Simulations include both natural and total carbon tracers. The required forced simulation (omip1) will be initialized with gridded observational climatologies. An optional forced simulation (omip1-spunup) will be initialized instead with BGC fields from a long model spin-up, preferably for 2000 years or more, and forced by repeating the same 62-year meteorological forcing. That optional run will also include abiotic tracers of total dissolved inorganic carbon and radiocarbon, CTabio and 14CTabio, to assess deep-ocean ventilation and distinguish the role of physics vs. biology. These simulations will be forced by observed atmospheric histories of the three inert gases and CO2 as well as carbon isotope ratios of CO2. OMIP-BGC simulation protocols are founded on those from previous phases of the Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project. They have been merged and updated to reflect improvements concerning gas exchange, carbonate chemistry, and new data for initial conditions and atmospheric gas histories. Code is provided to facilitate their implementation.

Description: The injection of sulphur into the stratosphere by explosive volcanic eruptions is the cause of significant climate variability. Based on sulphate records from a suite of ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica, the eVolv2k database includes estimates of the magnitudes and approximate source latitudes of major volcanic stratospheric sulphur injection (VSSI) events from 500 BCE to 1900 CE, constituting an update of prior reconstructions and an extension of the record by 1000 years. The VSSI estimates incorporate improvements to the ice core records in terms of synchronization and dating, refinements to the methods used to estimate VSSI from ice core records, and includes first estimates of the random uncertainties in VSSI values. VSSI estimates for many of the largest eruptions, including Samalas (1257), Tambora (1815) and Laki (1783) are within 10% of prior estimates. A number of strong events are included in eVolv2k which are largely underestimated or not included in earlier VSSI reconstructions, including events in 540, 574, 682 and 1108 CE. The long term annual mean VSSI from major volcanic eruptions is estimated to be ∼ 0.5 Tg [S] yr−1, ∼ 50 % greater than a prior reconstruction, due to the identification of more events and an increase in the magnitude of many intermediate events. A long-term, latitudinally and monthly resolved stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) time series is reconstructed from the eVolv2k VSSI estimates, and the resulting global mean SAOD is found to be similar (within 33%) to a prior reconstruction for most of the largest eruptions. The long-term (500 BCE–900 CE) average global mean SAOD estimated from the eVolv2k VSSI estimates and including a constant "background" injection of stratospheric sulphur is ∼ 0.014, 30 % greater than a prior reconstruction. These new long-term reconstructions of past VSSI and SAOD variability give context to recent volcanic forcing, suggesting that the 20th century was a period of somewhat weaker than average volcanic forcing, with current best estimates of 20th century mean VSSI and SAOD values being 25 and 14 % less, respectively, than the mean of the 500 BCE to 1900 CE period. The reconstructed VSSI and SAOD data are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/eVolv2k_v2〉.

Description: The Cretaceous ocean witnessed intervals of profound perturbations such as volcanic input of large amounts of CO2, anoxia, eutrophication and introduction of biologically relevant metals. Some of these extreme events were characterized by size reduction and/or morphological changes of a few calcareous nannofossil species. The correspondence between intervals of high trace metal concentrations and coccolith dwarfism suggests a negative effect of these elements on nannoplankton biocalcification processes in past oceans. In order to test this hypothesis, we explored the potential effect of a mixture of trace metals on growth and morphology of four living coccolithophore species, namely Emiliania huxleyi, Gephyrocapsa oceanica, Pleurochrysis carterae and Coccolithus pelagicus. The phylogenetic history of coccolithophores shows that the selected living species are linked to Mesozoic species showing dwarfism under excess metal concentrations. The trace metals tested were chosen to simulate the environmental stress identified in the geological record and upon known trace metal interactions with living coccolithophore algae. Our laboratory experiments demonstrated that elevated trace metal concentrations, similarly to the fossil record, affect coccolithophore algae size and/or weight. Smaller coccoliths were detected in E. huxleyi and C. pelagicus, while coccoliths of G. oceanica showed a decrease in size only at the highest trace metal concentrations. P. carterae coccolith size was unresponsive to changing trace metal concentrations. These differences among species allow discriminating the most- (P. carterae), intermediate- (E. huxleyi and G. oceanica) and least-tolerant (C. pelagicus) taxa. The fossil record and the experimental results converge on a selective response of coccolithophores to metal availability. These species-specific differences must be considered before morphological features of coccoliths are used to reconstruct paleo-chemical conditions.

Description: The Baltic Sea is a seasonally ice-covered marginal sea in northern Europe with intense wintertime ship traffic and a sensitive ecosystem. Understanding and modeling the evolution of the sea-ice pack is important for climate effect studies and forecasting purposes. Here we present and evaluate the sea-ice component of a new NEMO–LIM3.6-based ocean–sea-ice setup for the North Sea and Baltic Sea region (NEMO-Nordic). The setup includes a new depth-based fast-ice parametrization for the Baltic Sea. The evaluation focuses on long-term statistics, from a 45-year long hindcast, although short-term daily performance is also briefly evaluated. We show that NEMO-Nordic is well suited for simulating the mean sea-ice extent, concentration, and thickness as compared to the best available observational data set. The variability of the annual maximum Baltic Sea ice extent is well in line with the observations, but the 1961–2006 trend is underestimated. Capturing the correct ice thickness distribution is more challenging. Based on the simulated ice thickness distribution we estimate the undeformed and deformed ice thickness and concentration in the Baltic Sea, which compares reasonably well with observations.

Description: We developed a new method for the determination of dissolved nitric oxide (NO) in discrete seawater samples based on the combination of a purge-and-trap setup and a fluorometric detection of NO. 2,3-diaminonaphthalene (DAN) reacts with NO in seawater to form the highly fluorescent 2,3-naphthotriazole (NAT). The fluorescence intensity was linear for NO concentrations in the range from 0.14 to 19 nmol L−1. We determined a detection limit of 0.068 nmol L−1, an average recovery coefficient of 83.8 % (80.2–90.0 %), and a relative standard deviation of ±7.2 %. With our method we determined for the first time the temporal and spatial distributions of NO surface concentrations in coastal waters of the Yellow Sea off Qingdao and in Jiaozhou Bay during a cruise in November 2009. The concentrations of NO varied from below the detection limit to 0.50 nmol L−1 with an average of 0.26 ± 0.14 nmol L−1. NO surface concentrations were generally enhanced significantly during daytime, implying that NO formation processes such as NO2− photolysis are much higher during daytime than chemical NO consumption, which, in turn, lead to a significant decrease in NO concentrations during nighttime. In general, NO surface concentrations and measured NO production rates were higher compared to previously reported measurements. This might be caused by the high NO2− surface concentrations encountered during the cruise. Moreover, additional measurements of NO production rates implied that the occurrence of particles and a temperature increase can enhance NO production rates. With the method introduced here, we have a reliable and comparably easy to use method at hand to measure oceanic NO surface concentrations, which can be used to decipher both its temporal and spatial distributions as well as its biogeochemical pathways in the oceans.

Description: Past warm periods provide an opportunity to evaluate climate models under extreme forcing scenarios, in particular high ( 〉  800 ppmv) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Although a post hoc intercomparison of Eocene ( ∼  50  Ma) climate model simulations and geological data has been carried out previously, models of past high-CO2 periods have never been evaluated in a consistent framework. Here, we present an experimental design for climate model simulations of three warm periods within the early Eocene and the latest Paleocene (the EECO, PETM, and pre-PETM). Together with the CMIP6 pre-industrial control and abrupt 4 ×  CO2 simulations, and additional sensitivity studies, these form the first phase of DeepMIP – the Deep-time Model Intercomparison Project, itself a group within the wider Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP). The experimental design specifies and provides guidance on boundary conditions associated with palaeogeography, greenhouse gases, astronomical configuration, solar constant, land surface processes, and aerosols. Initial conditions, simulation length, and output variables are also specified. Finally, we explain how the geological data sets, which will be used to evaluate the simulations, will be developed.

Description: The climate research community uses atmospheric reanalysis data sets to understand a wide range of processes and variability in the atmosphere, yet different reanalyses may give very different results for the same diagnostics. The Stratosphere–troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP) is a coordinated activity to compare reanalysis data sets using a variety of key diagnostics. The objectives of this project are to identify differences among reanalyses and understand their underlying causes, to provide guidance on appropriate usage of various reanalysis products in scientific studies, particularly those of relevance to SPARC, and to contribute to future improvements in the reanalysis products by establishing collaborative links between reanalysis centres and data users. The project focuses predominantly on differences among reanalyses, although studies that include operational analyses and studies comparing reanalyses with observations are also included when appropriate. The emphasis is on diagnostics of the upper troposphere, stratosphere, and lower mesosphere. This paper summarizes the motivation and goals of the S-RIP activity and extensively reviews key technical aspects of the reanalysis data sets that are the focus of this activity. The special issue "The SPARC Reanalysis Intercomparison Project (S-RIP)" in this journal serves to collect research with relevance to the S-RIP in preparation for the publication of the planned two (interim and full) S-RIP reports.

Description: A high-resolution dynamical model (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean, Mediterranean configuration – NEMO-MED12) was used to give the first simulation of the distribution of radiocarbon (14C) across the whole Mediterranean Sea. The simulation provides a descriptive overview of both the natural pre-bomb 14C and the entire anthropogenic radiocarbon transient generated by the atmospheric bomb tests performed in the 1950s and early 1960s. The simulation was run until 2011 to give the post-bomb distribution. The results are compared to available in situ measurements and proxy-based reconstructions. The radiocarbon simulation allows an additional and independent test of the dynamical model, NEMO-MED12, and its performance to produce the thermohaline circulation and deep-water ventilation. The model produces a generally realistic distribution of radiocarbon when compared with available in situ data. The results demonstrate the major influence of the flux of Atlantic water through the Strait of Gibraltar on the inter-basin natural radiocarbon distribution and characterize the ventilation of intermediate and deep water especially through the propagation of the anthropogenic radiocarbon signal. We explored the impact of the interannual variability on the radiocarbon distribution during the Eastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT) event. It reveals a significant increase in 14C concentration (by more than 60 ‰) in the Aegean deep water and at an intermediate level (value up to 10 ‰) in the western basin. The model shows that the EMT makes a major contribution to the accumulation of radiocarbon in the eastern Mediterranean deep waters.

Description: Extensive biogeochemical transformation of organic matter takes place in the shallow continental shelf seas of Siberia. This, in combination with brine production from sea-ice formation, results in cold bottom waters with relatively high salinity and nutrient concentrations, as well as low oxygen and pH levels. Data from the SWERUS-C3 expedition with icebreaker Oden, from July to September 2014, show the distribution of such nutrient-rich, cold bottom waters along the continental margin from about 140 to 180° E. The water with maximum nutrient concentration, classically named the upper halocline, is absent over the Lomonosov Ridge at 140° E, while it appears in the Makarov Basin at 150° E and intensifies further eastwards. At the intercept between the Mendeleev Ridge and the East Siberian continental shelf slope, the nutrient maximum is still intense, but distributed across a larger depth interval. The nutrient-rich water is found here at salinities of up to ∼ 34.5, i.e. in the water classically named lower halocline. East of 170° E transient tracers show significantly less ventilated waters below about 150 m water depth. This likely results from a local isolation of waters over the Chukchi Abyssal Plain as the boundary current from the west is steered away from this area by the bathymetry of the Mendeleev Ridge. The water with salinities of ∼ 34.5 has high nutrients and low oxygen concentrations as well as low pH, typically indicating decay of organic matter. A deficit in nitrate relative to phosphate suggests that this process partly occurs under hypoxia. We conclude that the high nutrient water with salinity ∼ 34.5 are formed on the shelf slope in the Mendeleev Ridge region from interior basin water that is trapped for enough time to attain its signature through interaction with the sediment.

Description: As a major source for atmospheric CO2, the Peruvian upwelling region exhibits strong variability in surface fCO2 on short spatial and temporal scales. Understanding the physical processes driving the strong variability is of fundamental importance for constraining the effect of marine emissions from upwelling regions on the global CO2 budget. In this study, a frontal decay on length scales of 𝒪(10 km) was observed off the Peruvian coast following a pronounced decrease in down-frontal (equatorward) wind speed with a time lag of 9 h. Simultaneously, the sea-to-air flux of CO2 on the inshore (cold) side of the front dropped from up to 80 to 10 mmol m−2 day−1, while the offshore (warm) side of the front was constantly outgassing at a rate of 10–20 mmol m−2 day−1. Based on repeated ship transects the decay of the front was observed to occur in two phases. The first phase was characterized by a development of coherent surface temperature anomalies which gained in amplitude over 6–9 h. The second phase was characterized by a disappearance of the surface temperature front within 6 h. Submesoscale mixed-layer instabilities were present but seem too slow to completely remove the temperature gradient in this short time period. Dynamics such as a pressure-driven gravity current appear to be a likely mechanism behind the evolution of the front.

Description: The response of the marine carbon cycle to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations will be determined, in part, by the relative response of calcifying and non-calcifying organisms to global change. Planktonic foraminifera are responsible for a quarter or more of global carbonate production, therefore understanding the sensitivity of calcification in these organisms to environmental change is critical. Despite this, there remains little consensus as to whether, or to what extent, chemical and physical factors affect foraminiferal calcification. To address this, we directly test the effect of multiple controls on calcification in culture experiments and core-top measurements of Globigerinoides ruber. We find that two factors, body size and the carbonate system, strongly influence calcification intensity in life, but that exposure to corrosive bottom waters can overprint this signal post mortem. Using a simple model for the addition of calcite through ontogeny, we show that variable body size between and within datasets could complicate studies that examine environmental controls on foraminiferal shell weight. In addition, we suggest that size could ultimately play a role in determining whether calcification will increase or decrease with acidification. Our models highlight that knowledge of the specific morphological and physiological mechanisms driving ontogenetic change in calcification in different species will be critical in predicting the response of foraminiferal calcification to future change in atmospheric pCO2.

Description: In the ocean, sinking of particulate organic matter (POM) drives carbon export from the euphotic zone and supplies nutrition to mesopelagic communities, the feeding and degradation activities of which in turn lead to export flux attenuation. Oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) with suboxic water layers (〈 5 μmol O2 kg−1) show a lower carbon flux attenuation compared to well oxygenated waters (〉 100 μmol O2 kg−1), supposedly due to reduced heterotrophic activity. This study focuses on sinking particle fluxes through hypoxic mesopelagic waters (〈 60 % μmol O2 kg−1); these represent ~ 100-times more ocean volume globally compared to suboxic waters, but have less been studied. Particle export fluxes and attenuation coefficients were determined in the Eastern Tropical North Atlantic (ETNA) using two surface tethered drifting sediment trap arrays with 7 trapping depths located between 100 and 600 m. Data on particulate matter fluxes were fitted to the normalized power function Fz = F100 (z/100)−b, with F100 being the flux at a depth (z) of 100 m and b being the attenuation coefficient. Higher b-values suggest stronger flux attenuation and are influenced by factors such as faster degradation at higher temperatures. In this study, b-values of organic carbon fluxes varied between 0.74 and 0.80 and were in the intermediate range of previous reports, but lower than expected from seawater temperatures within the upper 500 m. During this study, highest b-values were determined for fluxes of particulate hydrolysable amino acids (PHAA), followed by particulate organic phosphorus (POP), nitrogen (PN), carbon (POC), chlorophyll a, and transparent exopolymer particles (TEP), pointing to a sequential degradation of organic matter components during sinking. Our study suggests that in addition to oxygen concentration, organic matter composition co-determines transfer efficiency through the mesopelagial. The magnitude of future carbon export fluxes may therefore also depend on how organic matter quality in the surface ocean changes under influence of warming, acidification, and enhanced stratification.

Description: The meridional Ekman volume, heat, and salt transport across two trans-Atlantic sections near 14.5° N and 11° S were estimated using in situ observations, wind products, and model data. A meridional ageostrophic velocity was obtained as the difference between the directly measured total velocity and the geostrophic velocity derived from observations. Interpreting the section mean ageostrophy to be the result of an Ekman balance, the meridional Ekman transport of 6. 2 ± 2. 3 Sv northward at 14.5° N and 11. 7 ± 2. 1 Sv southward at 11° S is estimated. The integration uses the top of the pycnocline as an approximation for the Ekman depth, which is on average about 20 m deeper than the mixed layer depth. The Ekman transport estimated based on the velocity observations agrees well with the predictions from in situ wind stress data of 6. 7 ± 3. 5 Sv at 14.5° N and 13. 6 ± 3. 3 Sv at 11° S. The meridional Ekman heat and salt fluxes calculated from sea surface temperature and salinity data or from high-resolution temperature and salinity profile data differ only marginally. The errors in the Ekman heat and salt flux calculation were dominated by the uncertainty of the Ekman volume transport estimates.

Description: Halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLSs) are naturally produced in the ocean and emitted to the atmosphere. When transported to the stratosphere, these compounds can have a significant influence on the ozone layer and climate. During a research cruise on RV Sonne in the subtropical and tropical west Indian Ocean in July and August 2014, we measured the VSLSs, methyl iodide (CH3I) and for the first time bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2), in surface seawater and the marine atmosphere to derive their emission strengths. Using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART with ERA-Interim meteorological fields, we calculated the direct contribution of observed VSLS emissions to the stratospheric halogen burden during the Asian summer monsoon. Furthermore, we compare the in situ calculations with the interannual variability of transport from a larger area of the west Indian Ocean surface to the stratosphere for July 2000–2015. We found that the west Indian Ocean is a strong source for CHBr3 (910 pmol m−2 h−1), very strong source for CH2Br2 (930 pmol m−2 h−1), and an average source for CH3I (460 pmol m−2 h−1). The atmospheric transport from the tropical west Indian Ocean surface to the stratosphere experiences two main pathways. On very short timescales, especially relevant for the shortest-lived compound CH3I (3.5 days lifetime), convection above the Indian Ocean lifts oceanic air masses and VSLSs towards the tropopause. On a longer timescale, the Asian summer monsoon circulation transports oceanic VSLSs towards India and the Bay of Bengal, where they are lifted with the monsoon convection and reach stratospheric levels in the southeastern part of the Asian monsoon anticyclone. This transport pathway is more important for the longer-lived brominated compounds (17 and 150 days lifetime for CHBr3 and CH2Br2). The entrainment of CHBr3 and CH3I from the west Indian Ocean to the stratosphere during the Asian summer monsoon is lower than from previous cruises in the tropical west Pacific Ocean during boreal autumn and early winter but higher than from the tropical Atlantic during boreal summer. In contrast, the projected CH2Br2 entrainment was very high because of the high emissions during the west Indian Ocean cruise. The 16-year July time series shows highest interannual variability for the shortest-lived CH3I and lowest for the longest-lived CH2Br2. During this time period, a small increase in VSLS entrainment from the west Indian Ocean through the Asian monsoon to the stratosphere is found. Overall, this study confirms that the subtropical and tropical west Indian Ocean is an important source region of halogenated VSLSs, especially CH2Br2, to the troposphere and stratosphere during the Asian summer monsoon.

Description: Treatment of the underwater light field in ocean biogeochemical models has been attracting increasing interest, with some models moving towards more complex parameterisations. We conduct a simple sensitivity study of a typical, highly simplified parameterisation. In our study, we vary the phytoplankton light attenuation parameter over a range constrained by data during both pre-industrial equilibrated and future climate scenario RCP8.5. In equilibrium, lower light attenuation parameters (weaker self-shading) shift net primary production (NPP) towards the high latitudes, while higher values of light attenuation (stronger shelf-shading) shift NPP towards the low latitudes. Climate forcing magnifies this relationship through changes in the distribution of nutrients both within and between ocean regions. Where and how NPP responds to climate forcing can determine the magnitude and sign of global NPP trends in this high CO2 future scenario. Ocean oxygen is particularly sensitive to parameter choice. Under higher CO2 concentrations, two simulations establish a strong biogeochemical feedback between the Southern Ocean and low-latitude Pacific that highlights the potential for regional teleconnection. Our simulations serve as a reminder that shifts in fundamental properties (e.g. light attenuation by phytoplankton) over deep time have the potential to alter global biogeochemistry.

Description: Occupying about 14 % of the world's surface, the Southern Ocean plays a fundamental role in ocean and atmosphere circulation, carbon cycling and Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics. Unfortunately, high interannual variability and a dearth of instrumental observations before the 1950s limits our understanding of how marine–atmosphere–ice domains interact on multi-decadal timescales and the impact of anthropogenic forcing. Here we integrate climate-sensitive tree growth with ocean and atmospheric observations on southwest Pacific subantarctic islands that lie at the boundary of polar and subtropical climates (52–54° S). Our annually resolved temperature reconstruction captures regional change since the 1870s and demonstrates a significant increase in variability from the 1940s, a phenomenon predating the observational record. Climate reanalysis and modelling show a parallel change in tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures that generate an atmospheric Rossby wave train which propagates across a large part of the Southern Hemisphere during the austral spring and summer. Our results suggest that modern observed high interannual variability was established across the mid-twentieth century, and that the influence of contemporary equatorial Pacific temperatures may now be a permanent feature across the mid- to high latitudes.

Description: Numerous studies have been conducted on the effect of ocean acidification on calcifiers inhabiting nearshore benthic habitats, such as the blue mussel Mytilus edulis. The majority of these experiments was performed under stable CO2 partial pressure (pCO2), carbonate chemistry and oxygen (O2) levels, reflecting present or expected future open ocean conditions. Consequently, levels and variations occurring in coastal habitats, due to biotic and abiotic processes, were mostly neglected, even though these variations largely override global long-term trends. To highlight this hiatus and guide future research, state-of-the-art technologies were deployed to obtain high-resolution time series of pCO2 and [O2] on a mussel patch within a Zostera marina seagrass bed, in Kiel Bay (western Baltic Sea) in August and September 2013. Combining the in situ data with results of discrete sample measurements, a full seawater carbonate chemistry was derived using statistical models. An average pCO2 more than 50 % (~ 640 µatm) higher than current atmospheric levels was found right above the mussel patch. Diel amplitudes of pCO2 were large: 765 ± 310 (mean ± SD). Corrosive conditions for calcium carbonates (Ωarag and Ωcalc 〈 1) centered on sunrise were found, but the investigated habitat never experienced hypoxia throughout the study period. It is estimated that mussels experience conditions limiting calcification for 12–15 h per day, based on a regional calcium carbonate concentration physiological threshold. Our findings call for more extensive experiments on the impact of fluctuating corrosive conditions on mussels. We also stress the complexity of the interpretation of carbonate chemistry time series data in such dynamic coastal environments.

Description: The temporal evolution of the physical and biogeochemical structure of an oxygen-depleted anticyclonic modewater eddy is investigated over a 2-month period using high-resolution glider and ship data. A weakly stratified eddy core (squared buoyancy frequency N2  ∼  0.1  ×  10−4 s−2) at shallow depth is identified with a horizontal extent of about 70 km and bounded by maxima in N2. The upper N2 maximum (3–5  ×  10−4 s−2) coincides with the mixed layer base and the lower N2 maximum (0.4  ×  10−4 s−2) is found at about 200 m depth in the eddy centre. The eddy core shows a constant slope in temperature/salinity (T∕S) characteristic over the 2 months, but an erosion of the core progressively narrows down the T∕S range. The eddy minimal oxygen concentrations decreased by about 5 µmol kg−1 in 2 months, confirming earlier estimates of oxygen consumption rates in these eddies. Separating the mesoscale and perturbation flow components reveals oscillating velocity finestructure ( ∼  0.1 m s−1) underneath the eddy and at its flanks. The velocity finestructure is organized in layers that align with layers in properties (salinity, temperature) but mostly cross through surfaces of constant density. The largest magnitude in velocity finestructure is seen between the surface and 140 m just outside the maximum mesoscale flow but also in a layer underneath the eddy centre, between 250 and 450 m. For both regions a cyclonic rotation of the velocity finestructure with depth suggests the vertical propagation of near-inertial wave (NIW) energy. Modification of the planetary vorticity by anticyclonic (eddy core) and cyclonic (eddy periphery) relative vorticity is most likely impacting the NIW energy propagation. Below the low oxygen core salt-finger type double diffusive layers are found that align with the velocity finestructure. Apparent oxygen utilization (AOU) versus dissolved inorganic nitrate (NO3−) ratios are about twice as high (16) in the eddy core compared to surrounding waters (8.1). A large NO3− deficit of 4 to 6 µmol kg−1 is determined, rendering denitrification an unlikely explanation. Here it is hypothesized that the differences in local recycling of nitrogen and oxygen, as a result of the eddy dynamics, cause the shift in the AOU : NO3− ratio. High NO3− and low oxygen waters are eroded by mixing from the eddy core and entrain into the mixed layer. The nitrogen is reintroduced into the core by gravitational settling of particulate matter out of the euphotic zone. The low oxygen water equilibrates in the mixed layer by air–sea gas exchange and does not participate in the gravitational sinking. Finally we propose a mesoscale–submesoscale interaction concept where wind energy, mediated via NIWs, drives nutrient supply to the euphotic zone and drives extraordinary blooms in anticyclonic mode-water eddies.

Description: Community approaches to investigating ocean acidification (OA) effects suggest a high tolerance of micro- and mesozooplankton to carbonate chemistry changes expected to occur within this century. Plankton communities in the coastal areas of the Baltic Sea frequently experience pH variations partly exceeding projections for the near future both on a diurnal and seasonal basis. We conducted a large-scale mesocosm CO2 enrichment experiment ( ∼  55 m3) enclosing the natural plankton community in Tvärminne–Storfjärden for 8 weeks during June–August 2012 and studied community and species–taxon response of ciliates and mesozooplankton to CO2 elevations expected for this century. In addition to the response to fCO2, we also considered temperature and chlorophyll a variations in our analyses. Shannon diversity of ciliates significantly decreased with fCO2 and temperature with a greater dominance of smaller species. The mixotrophic Myrionecta rubra seemed to indirectly and directly benefit from higher CO2 concentrations in the post-bloom phase through increased occurrence of picoeukaryotes (most likely Cryptophytes) and Dinophyta at higher CO2 levels. With respect to mesozooplankton, we did not detect significant effects for either total abundance or for Shannon diversity. The cladocera Bosmina sp. occurred at distinctly higher abundance for a short time period during the second half of the experiment in three of the CO2-enriched mesocosms except for the highest CO2 level. The ratio of Bosmina sp. with empty to embryo- or resting-egg-bearing brood chambers, however, was significantly affected by CO2, temperature, and chlorophyll a. An indirect CO2 effect via increased food availability (Cyanobacteria) stimulating Bosmina sp. reproduction cannot be ruled out. Although increased regenerated primary production diminishes trophic transfer in general, the presence of organisms able to graze on bacteria such as cladocerans may positively impact organic matter transfer to higher trophic levels. Thus, under increasing OA in cladoceran-dominated mesozooplankton communities, the importance of the microbial loop in the pelagic zone may be temporarily enhanced and carbon transfer to higher trophic levels may be stimulated.

Description: Global biogeochemical ocean models contain a variety of different biogeochemical components and often much simplified representations of complex dynamical interactions, which are described by many (≈10–≈100) parameters. The values of many of these parameters are empirically difficult to constrain, due to the fact that in the models they represent processes for a range of different groups of organisms at the same time, while even for single species parameter values are often difficult to determine in situ. Therefore, these models are subject to a high level of parametric uncertainty. This may be of consequence for their skill with respect to accurately describing the relevant features of the present ocean, as well as their sensitivity to possible environmental changes. We here present a framework for the calibration of global biogeochemical ocean models on short and long time scales. The framework combines an offline approach for transport of biogeochemical tracers with an Estimation of Distribution Algorithm (Covariance Matrix Adaption Evolution Strategy, CMAES). We explore the performance and capability of this framework by five different optimizations of six biogeochemical parameters of a global biogeochemical model. First, a twin experiment explores the feasibility of this approach. Four optimizations against a climatology of observations of annual mean dissolved nutrients and oxygen determine the extent, to which different setups of the optimization influence model's fit and parameter estimates. Because the misfit function applied focuses on the large-scale distribution of inorganic biogeochemical tracers, parameters that act on large spatial and temporal scales are determined earliest, and with the least spread. Parameters more closely tied to surface biology, which act on shorter time scales, are more difficult to determine. In particular the search for optimum zooplankton parameters can benefit from a sound knowledge of maximum and minimum parameter values, leading to a more efficient optimization. It is encouraging that, although the misfit function does not contain any direct information about biogeochemical turnover, the optimized models nevertheless provide a better fit to observed global biogeochemical fluxes.

Description: We investigate changes in the seasonal cycle of the Atlantic Ocean meridional heat transport (OHT) in a climate projection experiment with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) performed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Specifically, we compare a Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, covering the simulation period from 2005 to 2300, to a historical simulation, covering the simulation period from 1850 to 2005. In RCP 8.5, the OHT declines by 30–50 % in comparison to the historical simulation in the North Atlantic by the end of the 23rd century. The decline in the OHT is accompanied by a change in the seasonal cycle of the total OHT and its components. We decompose the OHT into overturning and gyre component. For the OHT seasonal cycle, we find a northward shift of 5° and latitude-dependent shifts between 1 and 6 months that are mainly associated with changes in the meridional velocity field. We find that the changes in the OHT seasonal cycle predominantly result from changes in the wind-driven surface circulation, which projects onto the overturning component of the OHT in the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. This leads in turn to latitude-dependent shifts between 1 and 6 months in the overturning component. In comparison to the historical simulation, in the subpolar North Atlantic, in RCP 8.5 we find a reduction of the North Atlantic Deep Water formation and changes in the gyre heat transport result in a strongly weakened seasonal cycle with a weakened amplitude by the end of the 23rd century.

Description: The effect of ocean acidification on growth and calcification of the marine algae Emiliania huxleyi was investigated in a series of mesocosm experiments where enclosed water volumes that comprised a natural plankton community were exposed to different carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. Calcification rates observed during those experiments were found to be highly variable, even among replicate mesocosms that were subject to similar CO2 perturbations. Here, data from an ocean acidification mesocosm experiment are reanalysed with an optimality-based dynamical plankton model. According to our model approach, cellular calcite formation is sensitive to variations in CO2 at the organism level. We investigate the temporal changes and variability in observations, with a focus on resolving observed differences in total alkalinity and particulate inorganic carbon (PIC). We explore how much of the variability in the data can be explained by variations of the initial conditions and by the level of CO2 perturbation. Nine mesocosms of one experiment were sorted into three groups of high, medium, and low calcification rates and analysed separately. The spread of the three optimised ensemble model solutions captures most of the observed variability. Our results show that small variations in initial abundance of coccolithophores and the prevailing physiological acclimation states generate differences in calcification that are larger than those induced by ocean acidification. Accordingly, large deviations between optimal mass flux estimates of carbon and of nitrogen are identified even between mesocosms that were subject to similar ocean acidification conditions. With our model-based data analysis we document how an ocean acidification response signal in calcification can be disentangled from the observed variability in PIC.

Description: Coastal seas may account for more than 75 % of global oceanic methane emissions. There, methane is mainly produced microbially in anoxic sediments from where it can escape to the overlying water column. Aerobic methane oxidation (MOx) in the water column acts as a biological filter reducing the amount of methane that eventually evades to the atmosphere. The efficiency of the MOx filter is potentially controlled by the availability of dissolved methane and oxygen, as well as temperature, salinity, and hydrographic dynamics, and all of these factors undergo strong temporal fluctuations in coastal ecosystems. In order to elucidate the key environmental controls, specifically the effect of oxygen availability, on MOx in a seasonally stratified and hypoxic coastal marine setting, we conducted a 2-year time-series study with measurements of MOx and physico-chemical water column parameters in a coastal inlet in the southwestern Baltic Sea (Eckernförde Bay). We found that MOx rates always increased toward the seafloor, but were not directly linked to methane concentrations. MOx exhibited a strong seasonal variability, with maximum rates (up to 11.6 nmol l−1 d−1) during summer stratification when oxygen concentrations were lowest and bottom-water temperatures were highest. Under these conditions, 70–95 % of the sediment-released methane was oxidized, whereas only 40–60 % were consumed during the mixed and oxygenated periods. Laboratory experiments with manipulated oxygen concentrations in the range of 0.2–220 µmol l−1 revealed a sub-micromolar oxygen-optimum for MOx at the study site. In contrast, the fraction of methane-carbon incorporation into the bacterial biomass (compared to the total amount of oxidised methane) was up to 38-fold higher at saturated oxygen concentrations, suggesting a different partitioning of catabolic and anabolic processes under oxygen-replete and oxygen-starved conditions, respectively. Our results underscore the importance of MOx in mitigating methane emission from coastal waters and indicate an organism-level adaptation of the water column methanotrophs to hypoxic conditions.

Description: Ocean eddies can both trigger mixing (during their formation and decay) and effectively shield water encompassed from being exchanged with ambient water (throughout their lifetimes). These antagonistic effects of eddies complicate the interpretation of synoptic snapshots typically obtained by ship-based oceanographic measurement campaigns. Here we use a coupled physical–biogeochemical model to explore biogeochemical dynamics within anticyclonic eddies in the eastern tropical South Pacific Ocean. The goal is to understand the diverse biogeochemical patterns that have been observed at the subsurface layers of the anticyclonic eddies in this region. Our model results suggest that the diverse subsurface nutrient patterns within eddies are associated with the presence of water masses of different origins at different depths.

Description: This study aims to quantify how much of the extratropical Tropopause Inversion Layer (TIL) comes from the modulation by planetary and synoptic-scale waves. By analyzing high-resolution observations, it also puts other TIL enhancing mechanisms into context. Using gridded COSMIC GPS-RO temperature profiles from 2007–2013 we are able to extract the extratropical wave signal by a simplified wavenumber-frequency domain filtering method, and to quantify the resulting TIL enhancement. By subtracting the extratropical wave signal, we show how much of the TIL is associated with other processes, at mid and high latitudes, for both Hemispheres and all seasons. The instantaneous modulation by planetary and synoptic-scale waves is almost entirely responsible for the TIL in mid-latitudes. This means that wave-mean flow interactions, inertia-gravity waves or the residual circulation are of minor importance in mid-latitudes. At polar regions, the extratropical wave modulation is dominant for the TIL strength as well, but there is also a clear fingerprint from sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) and final warmings in both hemispheres. Therefore, polar vortex breakups are partially responsible for the observed polar TIL strength in winter (if SSWs occur) and spring. Also, part of the polar summer TIL strength cannot be explained by extratropical wave modulation. After many modelling studies that proposed different TIL enhancing mechanisms in the last decade, our study finally identifies which processes dominate the extratropical TIL strength and their relative contribution, by analyzing observations only. It remains to be determined, however, which roles the different planetary and synoptic-scale wave types play within the total extratropical wave modulation of the TIL; and what causes the observed amplification of extratropical waves near the tropopause.

Description: Observations indicate an expansion of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) over the past 50 years, likely related to ongoing deoxygenation caused by reduced solubility, changes in stratification and circulation, and a potential acceleration of organic matter turnover in a warming climate. Higher temperatures also lead to enhanced weathering on land, which, in turn, increase the phosphorus and alkalinity flux into the ocean. The overall area of ocean sediments that are in direct contact with low oxygen bottom waters also increases with expanding OMZs. This leads to an additional release of phosphorus from ocean sediments and therefore raises the ocean's phosphorus inventory even further. Higher availability in phosphorus enhances biological production, remineralisation and oxygen consumption, and might therefore lead to further expansions of OMZs, representing a positive feedback. A negative feedback arises from the enhanced productivity-induced drawdown of carbon and also increased uptake of CO2 due to increased alkalinity, which, in turn, got there through weathering. This feedback leads to a decrease in atmospheric CO2 and weathering rates. Here we quantify these two competing feedbacks on millennial timescales for a high CO2 emission scenario. Using the UVic Earth System Climate Model of intermediate complexity, our model results suggest that the positive benthic phosphorus release feedback has only a minor impact on the size of OMZs in the next 1000 years, although previous studies assume that the phosphorus release feedback was the main factor for anoxic conditions during Cretaceous period. The increase in the marine phosphorus inventory under assumed business-as-usual global warming conditions originates, on millennial timescales, almost exclusively from the input via terrestrial weathering and causes a 4 to 5-fold expansion of the suboxic water volume in the model.

Description: This paper describes the recommended solar forcing dataset for CMIP6 and highlights changes with respect to CMIP5. The solar forcing is provided for radiative properties, namely total solar irradiance (TSI), solar spectral irradiance (SSI), and the F10.7 index as well as particle forcing, including geomagnetic indices Ap and Kp, and ionization rates to account for effects of solar protons, electrons, and galactic cosmic rays. This is the first time that a recommendation for solar-driven particle forcing has been provided for a CMIP exercise. The solar forcing datasets are provided at daily and monthly resolution separately for the CMIP6 preindustrial control, historical (1850–2014), and future (2015–2300) simulations. For the preindustrial control simulation, both constant and time-varying solar forcing components are provided, with the latter including variability on 11-year and shorter timescales but no long-term changes. For the future, we provide a realistic scenario of what solar behavior could be, as well as an additional extreme Maunder-minimum-like sensitivity scenario. This paper describes the forcing datasets and also provides detailed recommendations as to their implementation in current climate models. For the historical simulations, the TSI and SSI time series are defined as the average of two solar irradiance models that are adapted to CMIP6 needs: an empirical one (NRLTSI2–NRLSSI2) and a semi-empirical one (SATIRE). A new and lower TSI value is recommended: the contemporary solar-cycle average is now 1361.0 W m−2. The slight negative trend in TSI over the three most recent solar cycles in the CMIP6 dataset leads to only a small global radiative forcing of −0.04 W m−2. In the 200–400 nm wavelength range, which is important for ozone photochemistry, the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset shows a larger solar-cycle variability contribution to TSI than in CMIP5 (50 % compared to 35 %). We compare the climatic effects of the CMIP6 solar forcing dataset to its CMIP5 predecessor by using time-slice experiments of two chemistry–climate models and a reference radiative transfer model. The differences in the long-term mean SSI in the CMIP6 dataset, compared to CMIP5, impact on climatological stratospheric conditions (lower shortwave heating rates of −0.35 K day−1 at the stratopause), cooler stratospheric temperatures (−1.5 K in the upper stratosphere), lower ozone abundances in the lower stratosphere (−3 %), and higher ozone abundances (+1.5 % in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere). Between the maximum and minimum phases of the 11-year solar cycle, there is an increase in shortwave heating rates (+0.2 K day−1 at the stratopause), temperatures ( ∼  1 K at the stratopause), and ozone (+2.5 % in the upper stratosphere) in the tropical upper stratosphere using the CMIP6 forcing dataset. This solar-cycle response is slightly larger, but not statistically significantly different from that for the CMIP5 forcing dataset. CMIP6 models with a well-resolved shortwave radiation scheme are encouraged to prescribe SSI changes and include solar-induced stratospheric ozone variations, in order to better represent solar climate variability compared to models that only prescribe TSI and/or exclude the solar-ozone response. We show that monthly-mean solar-induced ozone variations are implicitly included in the SPARC/CCMI CMIP6 Ozone Database for historical simulations, which is derived from transient chemistry–climate model simulations and has been developed for climate models that do not calculate ozone interactively. CMIP6 models without chemistry that perform a preindustrial control simulation with time-varying solar forcing will need to use a modified version of the SPARC/CCMI Ozone Database that includes solar variability. CMIP6 models with interactive chemistry are also encouraged to use the particle forcing datasets, which will allow the potential long-term effects of particles to be addressed for the first time. The consideration of particle forcing has been shown to significantly improve the representation of reactive nitrogen and ozone variability in the polar middle atmosphere, eventually resulting in further improvements in the representation of solar climate variability in global models.

Description: It is well established that variable wintertime planetary wave forcing in the stratosphere controls the variability of Arctic stratospheric ozone through changes in the strength of the polar vortex and the residual circulation. While previous studies focused on the variations in upward wave flux entering the lower stratosphere, here the impact of downward planetary wave reflection on ozone is investigated for the first time. Utilizing the MERRA2 reanalysis and a fully coupled chemistry–climate simulation with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1(WACCM)) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), we find two downward wave reflection effects on ozone: (1) the direct effect in which the residual circulation is weakened during winter, reducing the typical increase of ozone due to upward planetary wave events and (2) the indirect effect in which the modification of polar temperature during winter affects the amount of ozone destruction in spring. Winter seasons dominated by downward wave reflection events (i.e., reflective winters) are characterized by lower Arctic ozone concentration, while seasons dominated by increased upward wave events (i.e., absorptive winters) are characterized by relatively higher ozone concentration. This behavior is consistent with the cumulative effects of downward and upward planetary wave events on polar stratospheric ozone via the residual circulation and the polar temperature in winter. The results establish a new perspective on dynamical processes controlling stratospheric ozone variability in the Arctic by highlighting the key role of wave reflection.

Description: The climate active trace-gas carbonyl sulfide (OCS) is the most abundant sulfur gas in the atmosphere. A missing source in its atmospheric budget is currently suggested, resulting from an upward revision of the vegetation sink. Tropical oceanic emissions have been proposed to close the resulting gap in the atmospheric budget. We present a bottom-up approach including (i) new observations of OCS in surface waters of the tropical Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans and (ii) a further improved global box model to show that direct OCS emissions are unlikely to account for the missing source. The box model suggests an undersaturation of the surface water with respect to OCS integrated over the entire tropical ocean area and, further, global annual direct emissions of OCS well below that suggested by top-down estimates. In addition, we discuss the potential of indirect emission from CS2 and dimethylsulfide (DMS) to account for the gap in the atmospheric budget. This bottom-up estimate of oceanic emissions has implications for using OCS as a proxy for global terrestrial CO2 uptake, which is currently impeded by the inadequate quantification of atmospheric OCS sources and sinks.

Description: Much of our knowledge about future changes in precipitation relies on global (GCM) and/or regional climate models (RCM) that have resolutions which are much coarser than typical spatial scales of precipitation, particularly extremes. The major problems with these projections are both climate model biases and the gap between gridbox and point scale. Wong et al. developed a model to jointly bias correct and downscale precipitation at daily scales. This approach, however, relied on pairwise correspondence between predictor and predictand for calibration, and thus, on nudged simulations which are rarely available. Here we present an extension of this approach that separates the downscaling from the bias correction and in principle is applicable to free running GCMs/RCMs. In a first step, we bias correct RCM-simulated precipitation against gridded observations at the same scale using a parametric quantile mapping approach. To correct the whole distribution including extreme tails we apply a mixture distribution of a gamma distribution for the precipitation mass and a generalized Pareto distribution for the extreme tail. In a second step, we bridge the scale gap: we predict local variance employing a vector generalized linear gamma model (VGLM gamma) with the bias corrected time series as predictor. The VGLM gamma model is calibrated between gridded and point scale (station) observations. For evaluation we adopt the perfect predictor experimental setup of VALUE. Precipitation is in most cases improved by (parts of) our method across different European climates. The method generally performs better in summer than in winter and in winter best in the Mediterranean region with a mild winter climate and worst for continental winter climate in mid & eastern Europe or Scandinavia. A strength of this two-step method is that the best combination of bias correction and downscaling methods can be selected. This implies that the concept can be extended to a wide range of method combinations.

Description: To describe the underlying processes involved in oceanic plankton dynamics is crucial for the determination of energy and mass flux through an ecosystem and for the estimation of biogeochemical element cycling. Many planktonic ecosystem models were developed to resolve major processes so that flux estimates can be derived from numerical simulations. These results depend on the type and number of parameterizations incorporated as model equations. Furthermore, the values assigned to respective parameters specify a model's solution. Representative model results are those that can explain data; therefore, data assimilation methods are utilized to yield optimal estimates of parameter values while fitting model results to match data. Central difficulties are (1) planktonic ecosystem models are imperfect and (2) data are often too sparse to constrain all model parameters. In this review we explore how problems in parameter identification are approached in marine planktonic ecosystem modelling. We provide background information about model uncertainties and estimation methods, and how these are considered for assessing misfits between observations and model results. We explain differences in evaluating uncertainties in parameter estimation, thereby also discussing issues of parameter identifiability. Aspects of model complexity are addressed and we describe how results from cross-validation studies provide much insight in this respect. Moreover, approaches are discussed that consider time- and space-dependent parameter values. We further discuss the use of dynamical/statistical emulator approaches, and we elucidate issues of parameter identification in global biogeochemical models. Our review discloses many facets of parameter identification, as we found many commonalities between the objectives of different approaches, but scientific insight differed between studies. To learn more from results of planktonic ecosystem models we recommend finding a good balance in the level of sophistication between mechanistic modelling and statistical data assimilation treatment for parameter estimation

Description: The Southern Ocean is a major sink for anthropogenic carbon. Yet, there is no quantitative consensus about how this sink will change when surface winds increase (as they are anticipated to do). Among the tools employed to quantify carbon uptake are global coupled ocean-circulation biogeochemical models. Because of computational limitations these models still fail to resolve potentially-important spatial scales. Instead, processes on these scales are parameterized. There is concern that deficiencies in these so-called eddy-parameterizations might imprint wrong sensitivities of projected oceanic carbon uptake. Here, we compare natural carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean simulated with contemporary eddy-parameterizations. We find that very differing parameterizations yield surprisingly similar oceanic carbon in response to strengthening winds. In contrast, we find (in an additional simulation) that the carbon uptake does differ substantially when the supply of bioavailable iron is altered within its envelope of uncertainty. We conclude that a more comprehensive understanding of bioavailable iron dynamics will substantially reduce the uncertainty of model-based projections of oceanic carbon uptake.

Description: The repercussions of surface ocean currents for the near-surface wind and the air-sea momentum flux are investigated in two versions of a global climate model with eddying ocean. The focus is on the effect of mesoscale ocean current features at scales of less than 150 km, by considering high-pass filtered, monthly-mean model output fields. We find a clear signature of a mesoscale oceanic imprint in the wind fields over the energetic areas of the oceans, particularly along the extensions of the western boundary currents and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. These areas are characterized by a positive correlation between mesoscale perturbations in the curl of the surface currents and the wind curl. The coupling coefficients are spatially non-uniform and show a pronounced seasonal cycle. The positive feedback of mesoscale current features on the near-surface wind acts in opposition to their damping effect on the wind stress. A tentative incorporation of this feedback in the surface stress formulation of an eddy-permitting global ocean-only model leads to a gain in the kinetic energy of up to 10 %, suggesting a fundamental shortcoming of present ocean model configurations.

Description: Paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) is a promising technique to systematically combine the information from climate model simulations and proxy records. Here, we investigate the assimilation of tree-ring-width (TRW) chronologies into an atmospheric global climate model using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) techniques and a process-based tree-growth forward model as an observation operator. Our results, within a perfect-model experiment setting, indicate that the "online DA" approach did not outperform the "off-line" one, despite its considerable additional implementation complexity. On the other hand, it was observed that the nonlinear response of tree growth to surface temperature and soil moisture does deteriorate the operation of the time-averaged EnKF methodology. Moreover, for the first time we show that this skill loss appears significantly sensitive to the structure of the growth rate function, used to represent the principle of limiting factors (PLF) within the forward model. In general, our experiments showed that the error reduction achieved by assimilating pseudo-TRW chronologies is modulated by the magnitude of the yearly internal variability in the model. This result might help the dendrochronology community to optimize their sampling efforts.

Description: Glacial cycles of the late Quaternary are controlled by the asymmetrically varying mass balance of continental ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere. Surface mass balance is governed by processes of ablation and accumulation. Here two ablation schemes, the positive-degree-day (PDD) method and the surface energy balance (SEB) approach, are compared in transient simulations of the last glacial cycle with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2. The standard version of the CLIMBER-2 model incorporates the SEB approach and simulates ice volume variations in reasonable agreement with paleoclimate reconstructions during the entire last glacial cycle. Using results from the standard CLIMBER-2 model version, we simulated ablation with the PDD method in offline mode by applying different combinations of three empirical parameters of the PDD scheme. We found that none of the parameter combinations allow us to simulate a surface mass balance of the American and European ice sheets that is similar to that obtained with the standard SEB method. The use of constant values for the empirical PDD parameters led either to too much ablation during the first phase of the last glacial cycle or too little ablation during the final phase. We then substituted the standard SEB scheme in CLIMBER-2 with the PDD scheme and performed a suite of fully interactive (online) simulations of the last glacial cycle with different combinations of PDD parameters. The results of these simulations confirmed the results of the offline simulations: no combination of PDD parameters realistically simulates the evolution of the ice sheets during the entire glacial cycle. The use of constant parameter values in the online simulations leads either to a buildup of too much ice volume at the end of glacial cycle or too little ice volume at the beginning. Even when the model correctly simulates global ice volume at the last glacial maximum (21 ka), it is unable to simulate complete deglaciation during the Holocene. According to our simulations, the SEB approach proves superior for simulations of glacial cycles.

Description: Using new high-resolution 10Be measurements in the NGRIP, EDML and Vostok ice cores, together with previously published data from EDC, we present an improved synchronization between Greenland and Antarctic ice cores during the Laschamp geomagnetic excursion  ∼ 41kyr ago. We estimate the precision of this synchronization to be ±20 years, an order of magnitude better than previous work. We discuss the implications of this new synchronization for making improved estimates of the depth difference between ice and enclosed gas of the same age (Δdepth), difference between age of ice and enclosed gas at the same depth (Δage) in the EDC and EDML ice cores, spectral properties of the 10Be profiles and phasing between Dansgaard–Oeschger-10 (in NGRIP) and AIM-10 (in EDML and EDC).

Description: The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years ago) is one of the suite of paleoclimate simulations included in the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It is an interval when insolation was similar to the present, but global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level was at or close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. The LGM has been a focus for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) since its inception, and thus many of the problems that might be associated with simulating such a radically different climate are well documented. The LGM state provides an ideal case study for evaluating climate model performance because the changes in forcing and temperature between the LGM and pre-industrial are of the same order of magnitude as those projected for the end of the 21st century. Thus, the CMIP6 LGM experiment could provide additional information that can be used to constrain estimates of climate sensitivity. The design of the Tier 1 LGM experiment (lgm) includes an assessment of uncertainties in boundary conditions, in particular through the use of different reconstructions of the ice sheets and of the change in dust forcing. Additional (Tier 2) sensitivity experiments have been designed to quantify feedbacks associated with land-surface changes and aerosol loadings, and to isolate the role of individual forcings. Model analysis and evaluation will capitalize on the relative abundance of paleoenvironmental observations and quantitative climate reconstructions already available for the LGM.

Description: The shallow ice approximation (SIA) is commonly used in ice-sheet models to simplify the force balance equations within the ice. However, the SIA cannot adequately reproduce the dynamics of the fast flowing ice streams usually found at the margins of ice sheets. To overcome this limitation, recent studies have introduced heuristic hybrid combinations of the SIA and the shelfy stream approximation. Here, we implement four different hybrid schemes into a model of the Antarctic Ice Sheet in order to compare their performance under present-day conditions. For each scheme, the model is calibrated using an iterative technique to infer the spatial variability in basal sliding parameters. Model results are validated against topographic and velocity data. Our analysis shows that the iterative technique compensates for the differences between the schemes, producing similar ice-sheet configurations through quantitatively different results of the sliding coefficient calibration. Despite this we observe a robust agreement in the reconstructed patterns of basal sliding parameters. We exchange the calibrated sliding parameter distributions between the schemes to demonstrate that the results of the model calibration cannot be straightforwardly transferred to models based on different approximations of ice dynamics. However, easily adaptable calibration techniques for the potential distribution of basal sliding coefficients can be implemented into ice models to overcome such incompatibility, as shown in this study

Description: In spite of significant progress in paleoclimate reconstructions and modelling of different aspects of the past glacial cycles, the mechanisms which transform regional and seasonal variations in solar insolation into long-term and global-scale glacial–interglacial cycles are still not fully understood – in particular, in relation to CO2 variability. Here using the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 we performed simulations of the co-evolution of climate, ice sheets, and carbon cycle over the last 400000 years using the orbital forcing as the only external forcing. The model simulates temporal dynamics of CO2, global ice volume, and other climate system characteristics in good agreement with paleoclimate reconstructions. These results provide strong support for the idea that long and strongly asymmetric glacial cycles of the late Quaternary represent a direct but strongly nonlinear response of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets to orbital forcing. This response is strongly amplified and globalised by the carbon cycle feedbacks. Using simulations performed with the model in different configurations, we also analyse the role of individual processes and sensitivity to the choice of model parameters. While many features of simulated glacial cycles are rather robust, some details of CO2 evolution, especially during glacial terminations, are sensitive to the choice of model parameters. Specifically, we found two major regimes of CO2 changes during terminations: in the first one, when the recovery of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) occurs only at the end of the termination, a pronounced overshoot in CO2 concentration occurs at the beginning of the interglacial and CO2 remains almost constant during the interglacial or even declines towards the end, resembling Eemian CO2 dynamics. However, if the recovery of the AMOC occurs in the middle of the glacial termination, CO2 concentration continues to rise during the interglacial, similar to the Holocene. We also discuss the potential contribution of the brine rejection mechanism for the CO2 and carbon isotopes in the atmosphere and the ocean during the past glacial termination.

Description: The composition of planktonic foraminiferal (PF) calcite is routinely used to reconstruct climate variability. However, PF ecology leaves a large imprint on the proxy signal: seasonal and vertical habitats of PF species vary spatially, causing variable offsets from annual mean surface conditions recorded by sedimentary assemblages. PF seasonality changes with temperature in a way that minimises the environmental change that individual species experience and it is not unlikely that changes in depth habitat also result from such habitat tracking. While this behaviour could lead to an underestimation of spatial or temporal trends as well as of variability in proxy records, most palaeoceanographic studies are (implicitly) based on the assumption of a constant habitat. Up to now, the effect of habitat tracking on foraminifera proxy records has not yet been formally quantified on a global scale. Here we attempt to characterise this effect on the amplitude of environmental change recorded in sedimentary PF using core top δ18O data from six species. We find that the offset from mean annual near-surface δ18O values varies with temperature, with PF δ18O indicating warmer than mean conditions in colder waters (on average by −0.1 ‰ (equivalent to 0.4 °C) per °C), thus providing a first-order quantification of the degree of underestimation due to habitat tracking. We use an empirical model to estimate the contribution of seasonality to the observed difference between PF and annual mean δ18O and use the residual Δδ18O to assess trends in calcification depth. Our analysis indicates that given an observation-based model parametrisation calcification depth increases with temperature in all species and sensitivity analysis suggests that a temperature-related seasonal habitat adjustment is essential to explain the observed isotope signal. Habitat tracking can thus lead to a significant reduction in the amplitude of recorded environmental change. However, we show that this behaviour is predictable. This allows accounting for habitat tracking, enabling more meaningful reconstructions and improved data–model comparison.

Description: Coccolithophores are calcifying phytoplankton and major contributors to both the organic and inorganic oceanic carbon pumps. Their export fluxes, species composition, and seasonal patterns were determined in two sediment trap moorings (M4 at 12° N, 49° W and M2 at 14° N, 37° W) collecting settling particles synchronously from October 2012 to November 2013 at 1200 m of water depth in the open equatorial North Atlantic. The two trap locations showed a similar seasonal pattern in total coccolith export fluxes and a predominantly tropical coccolithophore settling assemblage. Species fluxes were dominated throughout the year by lower photic zone (LPZ) taxa (Florisphaera profunda, Gladiolithus flabellatus) but also included upper photic zone (UPZ) taxa (Umbellosphaera spp., Rhabdosphaera spp., Umbilicosphaera spp., Helicosphaera spp.). The LPZ flora was most abundant during fall 2012, whereas the UPZ flora was more important during summer. In spite of these similarities, the western part of the study area produced persistently higher fluxes, averaging 241×107 ± 76×107 coccoliths m−2 d−1 at station M4 compared to only 66×107 ± 31×107 coccoliths m−2 d−1 at station M2. Higher fluxes at M4 were mainly produced by the LPZ species, favoured by the westward deepening of the thermocline and nutricline. Still, most UPZ species also contributed to higher fluxes, reflecting enhanced productivity in the western equatorial North Atlantic. Such was the case of two marked flux peaks of the more opportunistic species Gephyrocapsa muellerae and Emiliania huxleyi in January and April 2013 at M4, indicating a fast response to the nutrient enrichment of the UPZ, probably by wind-forced mixing. Later, increased fluxes of G. oceanica and E. huxleyi in October–November 2013 coincided with the occurrence of Amazon-River-affected surface waters. Since the spring and fall events of 2013 were also accompanied by two dust flux peaks, we propose a scenario in which atmospheric dust also provided fertilizing nutrients to this area. Enhanced surface buoyancy associated with the river plume indicates that the Amazon acted not only as a nutrient source, but also as a surface density retainer for nutrients supplied from the atmosphere. Nevertheless, lower total coccolith fluxes during these events compared to the maxima recorded in November 2012 and July 2013 indicate that transient productivity by opportunistic species was less important than "background" tropical productivity in the equatorial North Atlantic. This study illustrates how two apparently similar sites in the tropical open ocean actually differ greatly in ecological and oceanographic terms. The results presented here provide valuable insights into the processes governing the ecological dynamics and the downward export of coccolithophores in the tropical North Atlantic.

Description: Little is known about the climate evolution on the Kamchatka Peninsula during the last glacial–interglacial transition as existing climate records do not reach beyond 12 ka BP. In this study, a summer temperature record for the past 20 kyr is presented. Branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, terrigenous biomarkers suitable for continental air temperature reconstructions, were analyzed in a sediment core from the western continental margin off Kamchatka in the marginal northwest Pacific (NW Pacific). The record suggests that summer temperatures on Kamchatka during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) equaled modern temperatures. We suggest that strong southerly winds associated with a pronounced North Pacific High pressure system over the subarctic NW Pacific accounted for the warm conditions. A comparison with an Earth system model reveals discrepancies between model and proxy-based reconstructions for the LGM temperature and atmospheric circulation in the NW Pacific realm. The deglacial temperature development is characterized by abrupt millennial-scale temperature oscillations. The Bølling–Allerød warm phase and the Younger Dryas cold spell are pronounced events, suggesting a connection to North Atlantic climate variability.

Description: The oceans absorb about a quarter of the annually produced anthropogenic atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), resulting in a decrease in surface water pH, a process termed ocean acidification (OA). Surprisingly little is known about how OA affects the physiology of heterotrophic bacteria or the coupling of heterotrophic bacteria to phytoplankton when nutrients are limited. Previous experiments were, for the most part, undertaken during productive phases or following nutrient additions designed to stimulate algal blooms. Therefore, we performed an in situ large-volume mesocosm ( ∼  55 m3) experiment in the Baltic Sea by simulating different fugacities of CO2 (fCO2) extending from present to future conditions. The study was conducted in July–August after the nominal spring bloom, in order to maintain low-nutrient conditions throughout the experiment. This resulted in phytoplankton communities dominated by small-sized functional groups (picophytoplankton). There was no consistent fCO2-induced effect on bacterial protein production (BPP), cell-specific BPP (csBPP) or biovolumes (BVs) of either free-living (FL) or particle-associated (PA) heterotrophic bacteria, when considered as individual components (univariate analyses). Permutational Multivariate Analysis of Variance (PERMANOVA) revealed a significant effect of the fCO2 treatment on entire assemblages of dissolved and particulate nutrients, metabolic parameters and the bacteria–phytoplankton community. However, distance-based linear modelling only identified fCO2 as a factor explaining the variability observed amongst the microbial community composition, but not for explaining variability within the metabolic parameters. This suggests that fCO2 impacts on microbial metabolic parameters occurred indirectly through varying physicochemical parameters and microbial species composition. Cluster analyses examining the co-occurrence of different functional groups of bacteria and phytoplankton further revealed a separation of the four fCO2-treated mesocosms from both control mesocosms, indicating that complex trophic interactions might be altered in a future acidified ocean. Possible consequences for nutrient cycling and carbon export are still largely unknown, in particular in a nutrient-limited ocean.

Description: The large variety of atmospheric circulation systems affecting the eastern Asian climate is reflected by the complex Asian vegetation distribution. Particularly in the transition zones of these circulation systems, vegetation is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate–vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change and to obtain an ensemble of potential mid-Holocene biome distributions for eastern Asia, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient Holocene climate simulations performed in coupled atmosphere–ocean(–vegetation) models. The simulated biome changes are compared with pollen-based biome records for different key regions. In all simulations, substantial biome shifts during the last 6000 years are confined to the high northern latitudes and the monsoon–westerly wind transition zone, but the temporal evolution and amplitude of change strongly depend on the climate forcing. Large parts of the southern tundra are replaced by taiga during the mid-Holocene due to a warmer growing season and the boreal treeline in northern Asia is shifted northward by approx. 4° in the ensemble mean, ranging from 1.5 to 6° in the individual simulations, respectively. This simulated treeline shift is in agreement with pollen-based reconstructions from northern Siberia. The desert fraction in the transition zone is reduced by 21 % during the mid-Holocene compared to pre-industrial due to enhanced precipitation. The desert–steppe margin is shifted westward by 5° (1–9° in the individual simulations). The forest biomes are expanded north-westward by 2°, ranging from 0 to 4° in the single simulations. These results corroborate pollen-based reconstructions indicating an extended forest area in north-central China during the mid-Holocene. According to the model, the forest-to-non-forest and steppe-to-desert changes in the climate transition zones are spatially not uniform and not linear since the mid-Holocene.

Description: The Regional Antarctic ice and Global Ocean (RAnGO) model has been developed to study the interaction between the world ocean and the Antarctic ice sheet. The coupled model is based on a global implementation of the Finite Element Sea-ice Ocean Model (FESOM) with a mesh refinement in the Southern Ocean, particularly in its marginal seas and in the sub-ice-shelf cavities. The cryosphere is represented by a regional setup of the ice flow model RIMBAY comprising the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf and the grounded ice in its catchment area up to the ice divides. At the base of the RIMBAY ice shelf, melt rates from FESOM's ice-shelf component are supplied. RIMBAY returns ice thickness and the position of the grounding line. The ocean model uses a pre-computed mesh to allow for an easy adjustment of the model domain to a varying cavity geometry. RAnGO simulations with a 20th-century climate forcing yield realistic basal melt rates and a quasi-stable grounding line position close to the presently observed state. In a centennial-scale warm-water-inflow scenario, the model suggests a substantial thinning of the ice shelf and a local retreat of the grounding line. The potentially negative feedback from ice-shelf thinning through a rising in situ freezing temperature is more than outweighed by the increasing water column thickness in the deepest parts of the cavity. Compared to a control simulation with fixed ice-shelf geometry, the coupled model thus yields a slightly stronger increase in ice-shelf basal melt rates.

Description: Two interglacial epochs are included in the suite of Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The experimental protocols for simulations of the mid-Holocene (midHolocene, 6000 years before present) and the Last Interglacial (lig127k, 127 000 years before present) are described here. These equilibrium simulations are designed to examine the impact of changes in orbital forcing at times when atmospheric greenhouse gas levels were similar to those of the preindustrial period and the continental configurations were almost identical to modern ones. These simulations test our understanding of the interplay between radiative forcing and atmospheric circulation, and the connections among large-scale and regional climate changes giving rise to phenomena such as land–sea contrast and high-latitude amplification in temperature changes, and responses of the monsoons, as compared to today. They also provide an opportunity, through carefully designed additional sensitivity experiments, to quantify the strength of atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere, and land-surface feedbacks. Sensitivity experiments are proposed to investigate the role of freshwater forcing in triggering abrupt climate changes within interglacial epochs. These feedback experiments naturally lead to a focus on climate evolution during interglacial periods, which will be examined through transient experiments. Analyses of the sensitivity simulations will also focus on interactions between extratropical and tropical circulation, and the relationship between changes in mean climate state and climate variability on annual to multi-decadal timescales. The comparative abundance of paleoenvironmental data and of quantitative climate reconstructions for the Holocene and Last Interglacial make these two epochs ideal candidates for systematic evaluation of model performance, and such comparisons will shed new light on the importance of external feedbacks (e.g., vegetation, dust) and the ability of state-of-the-art models to simulate climate changes realistically.

Description: We present the first results of the implementation of stable water isotopes in the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm). The model is forced with the isotopic content of precipitation and water vapor from an atmospheric general circulation model (NCAR IsoCAM), while the fractionation during evaporation is treated explicitly in the MITgcm. Results of the equilibrium simulation under pre-industrial conditions are compared to observational data and measurements of plankton tow records (the oxygen isotopic composition of planktic foraminiferal calcite). The broad patterns and magnitude of the stable water isotopes in annual mean seawater are well captured in the model, both at the sea surface as well as in the deep ocean. However, the surface water in the Arctic Ocean is not depleted enough, due to the absence of highly depleted precipitation and snowfall. A model–data mismatch is also recognizable in the isotopic composition of the seawater–salinity relationship in midlatitudes that is mainly caused by the coarse grid resolution. Deep-ocean characteristics of the vertical water mass distribution in the Atlantic Ocean closely resemble observational data. The reconstructed δ18Oc at the sea surface shows a good agreement with measurements. However, the model–data fit is weaker when individual species are considered and deviations are most likely attributable to the habitat depth of the foraminifera. Overall, the newly developed stable water isotope package opens wide prospects for long-term simulations in a paleoclimatic context.

Description: Wetlands are one of the most significant natural sources of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere. They emit CH4 because decomposition of soil organic matter in waterlogged anoxic conditions produces CH4, in addition to carbon dioxide (CO2). Production of CH4 and how much of it escapes to the atmosphere depend on a multitude of environmental drivers. Models simulating the processes leading to CH4 emissions are thus needed for upscaling observations to estimate present CH4 emissions and for producing scenarios of future atmospheric CH4 concentrations. Aiming at a CH4 model that can be added to models describing peatland carbon cycling, we composed a model called HIMMELI that describes CH4 build-up in and emissions from peatland soils. It is not a full peatland carbon cycle model but it requires the rate of anoxic soil respiration as input. Driven by soil temperature, leaf area index (LAI) of aerenchymatous peatland vegetation, and water table depth (WTD), it simulates the concentrations and transport of CH4, CO2, and oxygen (O2) in a layered one-dimensional peat column. Here, we present the HIMMELI model structure and results of tests on the model sensitivity to the input data and to the description of the peat column (peat depth and layer thickness), and demonstrate that HIMMELI outputs realistic fluxes by comparing modeled and measured fluxes at two peatland sites. As HIMMELI describes only the CH4-related processes, not the full carbon cycle, our analysis revealed mechanisms and dependencies that may remain hidden when testing CH4 models connected to complete peatland carbon models, which is usually the case. Our results indicated that (1) the model is flexible and robust and thus suitable for different environments; (2) the simulated CH4 emissions largely depend on the prescribed rate of anoxic respiration; (3) the sensitivity of the total CH4 emission to other input variables is mainly mediated via the concentrations of dissolved gases, in particular, the O2 concentrations that affect the CH4 production and oxidation rates; (4) with given input respiration, the peat column description does not significantly affect the simulated CH4 emissions in this model version.

Description: Mesocosm experiments on phytoplankton dynamics under high CO2 concentrations mimic the response of marine primary producers to future ocean acidification. However, potential acidification effects can be hindered by the high standard deviation typically found in the replicates of the same CO2 treatment level. In experiments with multiple unresolved factors and a sub-optimal number of replicates, post-processing statistical inference tools might fail to detect an effect that is present. We propose that in such cases, data-based model analyses might be suitable tools to unearth potential responses to the treatment and identify the uncertainties that could produce the observed variability. As test cases, we used data from two independent mesocosm experiments. Both experiments showed high standard deviations and, according to statistical inference tools, biomass appeared insensitive to changing CO2 conditions. Conversely, our simulations showed earlier and more intense phytoplankton blooms in modeled replicates at high CO2 concentrations and suggested that uncertainties in average cell size, phytoplankton biomass losses, and initial nutrient concentration potentially outweigh acidification effects by triggering strong variability during the bloom phase. We also estimated the thresholds below which uncertainties do not escalate to high variability. This information might help in designing future mesocosm experiments and interpreting controversial results on the effect of acidification or other pressures on ecosystem functions

Description: Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016), we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008–2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16–32] Tg CH4 yr−1 higher methane emissions over the period 2008–2012 compared to 2002–2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002–2006 and 2008–2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.2) inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. We apply isotopic signatures to the emission changes estimated for individual studies based on five emission sectors and find that for six individual top-down studies (out of eight) the average isotopic signature of the emission changes is not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13CH4. However, the partitioning in emission change derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH4 emissions. In addition, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13CH4 observations. In most of the top-down studies included here, OH concentrations are considered constant over the years (seasonal variations but without any inter-annual variability). As a result, the methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) varies mainly through the change in methane concentrations and not its oxidants. For these reasons, changes in the methane loss could not be properly investigated in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.

Description: Continuous records of the atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4, and N2O are necessary input data for transient climate simulations, and their associated radiative forcing represents important components in analyses of climate sensitivity and feedbacks. Since the available data from ice cores are discontinuous and partly ambiguous, a well-documented decision process during data compilation followed by some interpolating post-processing is necessary to obtain those desired time series. Here, we document our best possible data compilation of published ice core records and recent measurements on firn air and atmospheric samples spanning the interval from the penultimate glacial maximum ( ∼  156 kyr BP) to the beginning of the year 2016 CE. We use the most recent age scales for the ice core data and apply a smoothing spline method to translate the discrete and irregularly spaced data points into continuous time series. These splines are then used to compute the radiative forcing for each GHG using well-established, simple formulations. We compile only a Southern Hemisphere record of CH4 and discuss how much larger a Northern Hemisphere or global CH4 record might have been due to its interpolar difference. The uncertainties of the individual data points are considered in the spline procedure. Based on the given data resolution, time-dependent cutoff periods of the spline, defining the degree of smoothing, are prescribed, ranging from 5000 years for the less resolved older parts of the records to 4 years for the densely sampled recent years. The computed splines seamlessly describe the GHG evolution on orbital and millennial timescales for glacial and glacial–interglacial variations and on centennial and decadal timescales for anthropogenic times. Data connected with this paper, including raw data and final splines, are available at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.871273.

Description: A suite of oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs – acetaldehyde, acetone, propanal, butanal and butanone) were measured concurrently in the surface water and atmosphere of the South China Sea and Sulu Sea in November 2011. A strong correlation was observed between all OVOC concentrations in the surface seawater along the entire cruise track, except for acetaldehyde, suggesting similar sources and sinks in the surface ocean. Additionally, several phytoplankton groups, such as haptophytes or pelagophytes, were also correlated to all OVOCs, indicating that phytoplankton may be an important source of marine OVOCs in the South China and Sulu seas. Humic- and protein-like fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM) components seemed to be additional precursors for butanone and acetaldehyde. The measurement-inferred OVOC fluxes generally showed an uptake of atmospheric OVOCs by the ocean for all gases, except for butanal. A few important exceptions were found along the Borneo coast, where OVOC fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere were inferred. The atmospheric OVOC mixing ratios over the northern coast of Borneo were relatively high compared with literature values, suggesting that this coastal region is a local hotspot for atmospheric OVOCs. The calculated amount of OVOCs entrained into the ocean seemed to be an important source of OVOCs to the surface ocean. When the fluxes were out of the ocean, marine OVOCs were found to be enough to control the locally measured OVOC distribution in the atmosphere. Based on our model calculations, at least 0.4 ppb of marine-derived acetone and butanone can reach the upper troposphere, where they may have an important influence on hydrogen oxide radical formation over the western Pacific Ocean.

Description: Repeat shipboard and multi-year moored observations obtained in the oxygen minimum zone (OMZ) of the eastern tropical North Atlantic (ETNA) were used to study the decadal change in oxygen for the period 2006–2015. Along 23° W between 6 and 14° N, oxygen decreased with a rate of −5.9 ± 3.5 µmol kg−1 decade−1 within the depth covering the deep oxycline (200–400 m), while below the OMZ core (400–1000 m) oxygen increased by 4.0 ± 1.6 µmol kg−1 decade−1 on average. The inclusion of these decadal oxygen trends in the recently estimated oxygen budget for the ETNA OMZ suggests a weakened ventilation of the upper 400 m, whereas the ventilation strengthened homogeneously below 400 m. The changed ventilation resulted in a shoaling of the ETNA OMZ of −0.03 ± 0.02 kg m−3 decade−1 in density space, which was only partly compensated by a deepening of isopycnal surfaces, thus pointing to a shoaling of the OMZ in depth space as well (−22 ± 17 m decade−1). Based on the improved oxygen budget, possible causes for the changed ventilation are analyzed and discussed. Largely ruling out other ventilation processes, the zonal advective oxygen supply stands out as the most probable budget term responsible for the decadal oxygen changes.