ALBERT

Notes: This paper examines the evolution of patent activities across U.S. states from 1963 to 1997. Several patterns are uncovered. First, there is invention catch-up by some lagging states. Second, the evidence is consistent with knowledge diffusion. Third, leading states unable to reinvent themselves lose their leads. Fourth, catch-up can be across a diverse field of activities or focused on select activities. State patent growth is positively correlated to industry R&D and a variable capturing labor skill and infrastructure quality. These provide rationale for state policy makers to increase support to programs that enhance labor skill (e.g., education) and infrastructure quality.

Notes: Economic impact studies overestimate the direct impact of an airport on travelers' expenditures. This occurs for two reasons. First, impact studies assume that the number of visitors traveling to the local area via the airport would fall to zero in the absence of the airport. Second, impact studies implicitly assume that local residents would continue to travel outside the local area in the same numbers as when the local airport is available. In other words, it is assumed that the demand for travel into the local area by visitors is perfectly elastic with respect to the time and money costs of travel, while the demand for travel by local residents is perfectly inelastic with respect to these variables. This paper develops a methodology that avoids both of these sources of error by explicitly incorporating air travel demand into the analysis. The methodology is applied to Tampa International Airport for the year 1996. It is shown that using the standard methodology would have resulted in an estimate of direct impacts sixteen times the size of the estimate made by using the methodology of this paper.

Notes: Book reviewed:Sumila Gulyani, Innovating with Infrastructure: The Automobile industry in India

Notes: Despite the prevalence of multiple jobholding, there is relatively little research into its causes. Existing research has tested the predictions of standard labor models with micro data. Yet, there has been virtually no research into the relationship between moonlighting and structural differences in regional labor markets such as wages and employment growth. In this manner, this study examines the large differences in multiple jobholding rates across U.S. states. The findings indicate that multiple jobholding acts as a short-term shock absorber to cyclical changes. However, in the long-term, these effects dissipate, indicating that moonlighting plays a similar role as do changes in unemployment and labor-force participation to regional labor market shocks. Conversely, multiple jobholding rates are inversely related to average weekly earnings. Thus, job growth accompanied by real wage (and productivity) growth may result in a decline in multiple jobholding, further exacerbating potential labor shortages. Other key factors found to influence multiple jobholding include occupational structure and education.

Notes: Many researchers and practitioners agree that evaluation of economic development planning programs is important, although the perspectives on the approaches, methods, and use of results vary widely. Confounding the issue are cases in which development programs have a small number of participants and typical measures such as parametric statistics are not valid. The alternate evaluation technique presented here uses a non-parametric approach, incorporating a control group for comparison purposes. The paper begins with a review of evaluation issues for economic development planning programs, followed by an illustration of the approach suitable for programs with small numbers of participants. It utilizes a case study of a publicly-funded small business incubator program, the Advanced Technology Development Center, located in Atlanta, Georgia. By explaining how the analysis is constructed and the results interpreted, the paper illustrates a potentially useful methodological approach to evaluating community economic development programs.

Notes: The industrial rise of the Third Italy has been characterized by the growth of dynamic networks of flexible small and medium–sized enterprises (SMEs) that are spatially concentrated in specialized industrial districts. This network type of coordination has been associated with horizontal, trust–based relations rather than vertical relations of power and dependency between local organizations. This would lower transaction costs (essential for local systems with an extreme division of labor), facilitate the transmission and exchange of (tacit) knowledge (and thus, learning and innovation), encourage cooperation mechanisms (such as the establishment of research centers), and stimulate political–institutional performance (e.g. through regulation of potential social conflicts).From an evolutionary perspective, the focus is on the dynamics of industrial districts drawing from current experiences in Italy. In this respect, this paper concentrates on two main features of industrial districts that have largely contributed to their economic success in the past, that is, their network organization and the collective learning process. The evolution of industrial districts is described in terms of organizational adjustments to structural change. The way in which the size distribution of firms has changed is discussed (in particular the role of large companies), how the (power) relationships between local organizations have evolved, what are the current sources and mechanisms of learning, and to what extent institutional lock–in has set in. Finally, a number of trajectories districts may go through in the near future are presented.

Notes: State governments offer a variety of programs to assist technology intensive entrepreneurial firms yet there is a limited understanding of how firms use these programs. This paper provides a framework for categorizing state technology programs and uses detailed case studies to examine how these programs augment firms’ capabilities. It is concluded that firms made extensive use of state programs that provide access to university intellectual property and research facilities. In addition, firms participated in programs that provided incentives for faculty to conduct joint research with industry. Finally, state venture capital programs, though small relative to federal R&D grants or venture capital, appear to nurture firms’ development.

Notes: This paper proposes an evolutionary reading of rural development referred to cases of rapid industrial growth, where a strong concentration process has involved the main urban centers and the successful industrial districts. This territorial development pattern has gradually extinguished rural society and its institutional basis, creating a clear separation between new central and peripheral areas. The consequent effects on local economy and social dynamics reveal the long-term risks raised in terms of development sustainability. An empirical study of two Italian provinces is also carried out to show how this framework can be helpful in interpreting real historical patterns.

Notes: After a long period of industrialization based on import substitution (ISI), Mexico started to open up its economy by accessing the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1986. The export-promotion strategy was transformed into one of regional integration with the signing of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994. The paper explores the impact of the opening of the economy on regional disparities in Mexico using σ and β-convergence analyses. Four different samples have been employed to control for possible data bias linked to the inclusion of oil-producing and maquiladora-based states. The results show that whereas the final stages of the ISI period were dominated by convergence trends, trade liberalization (GATT) and economic integration (NAFTA) have led to divergence. In particular, the NAFTA period is related to divergence regardless of the type of analysis chosen and the sample used.

Notes: This paper examines return migrants and new migrants to Montana: Who are they? Why do they move? Do return migrants move for different reasons than new migrants? Data from the 1994–1997 Montana Poll, a representative survey of Montana households, are used. A comparison of socio-economic differences of return and new migrants shows that the two migrant types are very similar in terms of education, income, and age. This stands in contrast to the findings of others who maintain that return migrants are negatively selected with respect to education. Logistic regressions were employed to identify the effect of age and place ties on reasons for moving. Return migrants and new migrants move to Montana for very similar reasons, with family being the most important primary reason for moving. Moving for lifestyle reasons, such as environmental quality and urban amenities, were found to systematically change with age. This could explain why people return to a place they left earlier in life. While other research on return migration compared return migrants and other migrants who left the same place of origin, this paper offers a comparison of return migrants and other migrants who seek out the same destination. Results from the Montana Poll suggest that the same destination attracts return migrants and new migrants with similar socio-economic characteristics who move there for very similar reasons.

Notes: The U.S. machine tool (MT) sector has undergone substantial restructuring over the past three decades. Despite signs of a commercial rebound in recent years, however, a number of critical issues remain for this industry. Not all firms share these concerns, in that differences exist between producers located in the core manufacturing belt and those located elsewhere. This paper examines the characteristics, competitive problems, and markets of firms located in these two regions. Survey data from a sample of 104 machine tool companies reveal that significant core–periphery differences exist with regard to firm–specific difficulties and markets served. The data also show that firms in the periphery have been growing significantly faster than firms in the core. The paper concludes with a discussion of the likely reasons for regional variability in the characteristics of firms in this industry. Directions for future research are also suggested, notably with regard to the interplay between national regulatory conditions and the competitive performance of MT firms.

Notes: Despite an increase of 200,000 jobs in business and professional services in the Atlanta metropolitan area between 1982 and 1997, the central city saw employment as a percentage of these services drop by approximately 20 percent. Most growth occurred in the northern suburbs, resulting in a dispersed distribution of business and professional services in Atlanta. To understand the spatial distribution and suburbanization of business and professional services in Atlanta, regression analysis was carried out for 1982 and 1992. Flexible female workers, corporate headquarters, well –educated professionals, and highway access turned out to be important location determinants, with the latter two being increasingly responsible for the suburbanization of business and professional services.

Notes: This paper considers the case of Bangkok where, as in many Asian cities, the expansion of urban areas has outpaced the ability of public entities to manage and provide basic services. One potential way to improve the capacity of neighborhoods to assist in provision or improvement in environmental services is to enhance the positive contributions provided by local social networks and social capital. A conceptual framework is presented to explore the role of social networks in environmental management in polluted urban environments. This is followed by a brief description of the methodology and survey instrument used to collect information from a sample of community households in Bangkok and an analysis of the results from this survey regarding environmental practices, community action, and social networks. Some of the results suggest that increasing the number of social interactions that residents of a community experience is associated with increased community participation as, apparently, is increasing knowledge about what happens to waste or waste water after it leaves the community. Local public education efforts that focus on useful knowledge about environmental impacts may well be an effective way to encourage community participation.

Notes: Recent years have witnessed widespread expansion of state and regional planning programs in the United States. A major purpose of these efforts is to reduce urban sprawl—low density, discontinuous, suburban–style development, often characterized as the result of rapid, unplanned, and/or uncoordinated growth— by promoting jurisdictional cooperation and regulatory consistency across metropolitan areas. This paper evaluates the efficacy of this approach by examining the relationship between governmental fragmentation and several measurable outcomes of urban development: density, urbanized land area, property value, and public expenditures on infrastructure. The four dimensions are modeled in a simultaneous equations framework, providing substantive evidence on how fragmentation and other exogenous factors affect metropolitan growth patterns. Fragmentation is associated with lower densities and higher property values, but has no direct effect on public service expenditures; less fragmented metropolitan areas occupy greater amounts of land due to the extensive annexation needed to bring new development under the control of a central municipality. The findings of the analysis lend support to state and regional planning efforts aimed at increasing cooperation among local governments, but also suggest that further research is needed in order to evaluate whether or not they produce their intended effects.

Notes: Discussions of immigration, settlement and adjustment within the U.S. do not typically refer to immigrant status (i.e., refugee versus family preference), and instead refer to the foreign–born population as an aggregate. Distinguishing between refugees and other immigrant arrivals likely means differences with respect to their geographic distribution and embodied human capital owing to differences associated with the reasons for immigration (forced versus voluntary), period of arrival, and immigration policy. The lack of differentiation by group within the existing literature is typically due to a shortfall of detailed information relating to admission status within publicly released data files. Yet concrete knowledge of differences by admission category is important in understanding overall patterns of settlement and adjustment within the foreign–born population. This paper therefore explores potential differences with respect to settlement and endowed human capital between immigrants and refugees. Identification of the major sources of refugees within Immigration and Naturalization Service data files allows the refugee population to be identified within the 1990 Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), therefore increasing the range of variables and measures associated with the refugee population available to researchers, and points to the diversity of the refugee population.

Notes: This paper presents an analysis of a public assistance program for small–scale entrepreneurship in peripheral areas. Public assistance compensates for market inefficiencies where the decision rules of financial institutions discriminate against otherwise viable small firms in capital markets. Lending institutions perceive high risk in providing debt capital when little information is present. Using empirical data from Israel, the determinants of this risk are estimated and the role of location in creating this information asymmetry is stressed. These results empirically establish that (1) location matters in determining the risk profile of the firm, (2) locationally targeted programs can reduce the information asymmetries that make peripheral firms unattractive to lenders, and (3) these programs can also generate positive welfare effects. Finally, there is speculation on the potential role of ICT (information and communications technology) in increasing the visibility of small firms in remote locations and creating a more symmetrical flow of information.

Notes: Ethnic entrepreneurship has become a popular concept in a modern multi–cultural society. This paper seeks to offer an overview of the potential of ethnic entrepreneurship for solving inter alia the structural unemployment problems of ethnic groups in cities. There is a general lack of empirical evidence on this issue in the current literature. The present paper aims to fill this gap by addressing in particular the critical success conditions for ethnic entrepreneurs. The focus of the research is on variations in success across three ethnic groups in the Amsterdam area. By means of structured personal interviews with many ethnic entrepreneurs, a systematic qualitative data base was created. The paper sets out to identify empirically the driving forces for business success, such as education or the role of informal networks. The explanatory framework deployed for the identification of these qualitative success factors for distinct ethnic groups is based on a particular, recently developed artificial intelligence method, viz. rough set analysis. This multidimensional classification approach appears to be able to identify various important factors for the motivation and performance of ethnic enterprises. Two major findings emerge from this investigation: (i) performance conditions vary across ethnic groups, and (ii) informal networks are crucial for business success.

Notes: Rocky Mountain states have experienced unprecedented growth as agricultural land is converted to residences. Preservation efforts meet with protest from private landholders claiming public efforts undermine private property rights. This paper explores the degree to which respondents think management of agricultural lands is a public versus a private matter. Data are from a Sublette County, Wyoming, mail survey. Results are relevant to many western counties having public lands and high growth rates. They suggest that landowners, wage earners, college graduates, and those who value the county’s rural community lifestyle support public management strategies. Well-established residents and those with economic reasons for living in the county support private management strategies.

Notes: This research examines changes in four sectors of livestock production, pork, dairy, fed cattle, and beef cows, from 1978 to 1997 by county metropolitan character. Relative changes in the amount of production and the number of producers in a county as well as changes in the average scale of production are examined. The purpose is to identify whether structural differences have emerged between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan Corn Belt counties as a result of industrialization in livestock production. The analysis identifies a divergence in the amount and scale of pork production in metro versus nonmetro regions from 1987 to 1997, coinciding with a period of substantial industrialization in that sector. Little divergence is identified in the scale of dairy, fed cattle, and beef cows operations during the same time period. The findings have implications for farmland preservation and agricultural viability in exurban regions of the Corn Belt.

Notes: Books reviewed:Mona Domosh and Joni Seager, Putting Women in Place: Feminist Geographers Make Sense of the WorldGerald Hodge and Ira M. Robinson, Planning Canadian Regions

Notes: This paper analyzes the effect of self–employed persons’ education on the success of their firms during the economic downturn and upturn of the 1990's. It is found that the business cycle affects the relative closure rates of firms run by self–employed with any level of education. Exit probability is lower for the highly educated during bust, but higher in boom. This is accounted for by two facts. First, running a small firm is argued to be a less attractive choice to wage work, particularly for the highly educated, due to lower earning prospects, less stable stream of earnings, and the cultural tradition of working in large corporations. Second, the highly educated faced a higher outside demand for their labor than did the less educated during economic upturn. Finally, it was found that regardless of the state of aggregate economy, firms run by the highly educated have higher growth probabilities than those run by less educated persons.

Notes: This study analyzes the evolution of China’s regional inequalities during the reform period of 1978–1998 based on three geographical scales, both output and livelihood indicators of economic well-being and three measures of inequality. The results indicate that interprovincial and regional inequalities declined between 1978 and 1990, but have widened steadily since 1990. Urban-rural disparity diminished before 1984, then experienced a decade-long surge afterwards to peak in 1994 at a much higher level and since 1994, it has been declining again. The levels of regional inequalities in China appear to be sensitive to changes in government development strategies and regional policies. Differential growth of the provincial economies shaped by the coast-oriented and urban-biased development strategies as well as selective open-door policy implemented by the Chinese government after the reform is the key to understanding the wax and wane in China’s regional inequalities. This paper discusses the factors that account for the changing regional inequalities in post-reform China and argues that government policies are likely to continue to influence the future trajectories of inequality change.

Notes: Books reviewed:Char Miller, Fluid Arguments: Five Centuries of Western Water ConflictMichael Dear, (ed.) From Chicago to L.A.: Making Sense of Urban TheoryMartin Dangerfield, Subregional Economic Cooperation in Central and Eastern Europe: The Political Economy of CEFTAKenneth Button and Roger Stough, Air Transport Networks: Theory and Policy Implications

Notes: This paper examines the effects of state economic development incentives on the growth of 366 Ohio manufacturing and nonmanufacturing establishments that launched major expansions between 1993 and 1995. Growth is measured as the actual employment change that occurred in these establishments and as the employment growth announced when expansions were launched. Empirical findings indicate that incentives have very little (or even a negative) effect on actual growth and they have a substantial positive effect on announced growth. Findings also suggest that establishments that received incentives overestimated their announced employment targets more than establishments that did not receive incentives.

Notes: In this paper the excise tax policy of U.S. state governments is analyzed with special attention to how this policy is influenced by the level of excise taxation in neighboring states, “border-tax effects,” and the relative size of the market located across state boundaries. Using a panel data set, state policies towards the taxation of cigarettes, all alcoholic beverages, beer, distilled liquor, motor fuel, and insurance are investigated within the context of a vote-maximizing model of collective decision making. The role of the industry in that state whose goods and services are singled out for special taxation is also examined.

Notes: This paper examines the importance of the distribution of consumers in Hotelling’s circle on the comparison between the optimal and the market equilibrium levels of diversity. It finds that when most consumers are located very close to the firms, the result of Salop—that the equilibrium number of firms is larger than the optimal one (surplus maximizing)—can be reversed.

Notes: Books reviewed:Gordon L. Clark, Maryann P. Feldman, and Meric S. Gertler (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Economic GeographyPeter Meusburger and Heike Jöns (eds.), Transformations in Hungary: Essays in Economy and SocietyAllen J. Scott (ed.), Global City-Regions: Trends, Theory, PolicyJames O. Wheeler, Yuko Aoyama, and Barney Warf (eds.), Cities in the Telecommunications Age: The Fracturing of GeographiesBarry Bluestone and Mary Huff Stevenson, The Boston Renaissance: Race, Space, and Economic Change in an American Metropolis

Notes: Net multipliers, as introduced by Oosterhaven and Stelder (2002) accept outputs as entries instead of final demand. They are found by multiplying ordinary multipliers by the final demand ratio over the sector’s output. This pragmatic solution suffers from ratio instability over time. The alternative net multipliers proposed here are based on the interpretation of the Leontief inverse matrix for the effects generated at each round. The new solution is not sensitive to the size of impacts. Now net multiplier is equal to the corresponding ordinary multiplier minus one, and the ordering of multipliers is unchanged.

Notes: In this paper we analyze the effect of infrastructure on the cost and productivity performance of the private productive sector of Spanish regions over the period 1980–1993. We use a dual approach based on cost functions that allows us to recover the usual parameters estimated with production functions. In addition, we obtain rates of return and cost elasticities of production factors at the regional level. Our framework explicitly considers that some factors are quasi-fixed and their volume can differ from their optimal endowment levels. Our results indicate that the public sector has contributed significantly to enhance productivity and reduce costs in the private sector of almost every Spanish region. Nevertheless, there is still scope for the government to continue its investment efforts, given that there remains an appreciable gap between observed and optimal public capital, and we find that in the long run, public capital promotes private investment.

Notes: This paper tests for spatial spillover effects of state-level telecommunications infrastructure investment on state output, using panel data for 48 U.S. states from 1970 through 1997. As information and communication technologies support more industrial locational freedom, states may use telecommunications infrastructure investment as a competitive tool for attracting factors of production. In a production-function framework, this effect would manifest itself as a negative output spillover effect from telecommunications infrastructure investment. Findings indicate that a state benefits from its own telecommunications infrastructure, but telecommunications investment by other states has a negative impact on its output growth path, and proximity amplifies this negative spillover effect.

Notes: Books reviewed:A. Stewart Fotheringham and Michael Wegener (eds.), Spatial Models and GIS: New Potential and New ModelsAura Reggiani (ed.), Spatial Economic Science: New Frontiers in Theory and MethodologyJean-Claude Thill (ed.), Geographic Information Systems in Transportation ResearchBarbara Dluhosch, Industrial Location and Economic Integration: Centrifugal and Centripetal Forces in the New EuropeJean-Marie Huriot and Jacques-François Thisse, Economics of Cities: Theoretical PerspectivesManfred M. Fischer and Yee Leung (eds.), GeoComputational Modelling: Techniques and ApplicationsEduardo A. Haddad, Regional Inequality and Structural Changes: Lessons from the Brazilian ExperienceManfred M. Fischer, Luis Suarez-Villa, and Michael Steiner (eds.), Innovation, Networks and LocalitiesMarjolein C.J. Caniëls, Knowledge Spillovers and Economic Growth: Regional Growth Differentials across EuropeMartin van der Velde and Henk van Houtum (eds.), Borders, Regions, and PeoplePeter W. J. Batey and Peter Friedrich (eds.), Regional CompetitionJohn E. Anderson and Robert W. Wassmer, Bidding for Business: The Efficacy of Local Economic Development Incentives in a Metropolitan AreaPhilip Hanson and Michael Bradshaw (eds.), Regional Economic Change in RussiaGred Hise and William Deverell, Eden by Design: The 1930 Olmsted-Bartholomew Plan for the Los Angeles Region

Notes: Using the properties of the Gini coefficient, a structural model is developed to assess the impact of uniform changes in environmental compliance costs on the distribution of per capita emissions across U.S. counties and states, a distribution that places a larger burden on minorities. Using data from the U.S. EPA’s Toxic Release Inventory and three state-specific measures of environmental compliance costs, we find that uniform increases in federal environmental standards have little impact on the distribution of environmental hazards, and may actually exacerbate spatial inequality. As a result, Federal standards that target specific high pollution locations are necessary to redress current inequities.

Notes: This paper estimates the effects of welfare reforms on a state’s employment and wage rates. Welfare reforms include: pushing welfare recipients into the labor force, financial incentives to recipients for working, wage subsidies to employers of recipients, and community service jobs for recipients. The effects of these policies are analyzed using a newly estimated model of state labor markets. Simulations show that jobs found by welfare reform participants cause sizable displacement effects for nonparticipants. Displacement effects of labor supply policies are highest when a state’s unemployment is high, whereas displacement effects of labor demand policies are highest when a state’s unemployment is low.

Notes: Although the need for aggregation in input –output modelling has diminished with the increases in computing power, an alarming number of regional studies continue to use the procedure. The rationales for doing so typically are grounded in data problems at the regional level. As a result many regional analysts use aggregated national input –output models and trade –adjust them at this aggregated level. In this paper, we point out why this approach can be inappropriate. We do so by noting that it creates a possible source of model misapplication (i.e., a direct effect could appear for a sector where one does not exist) and also by finding that a large amount of error (on the order of 100 percent) can be induced into the impact results as a result of improper aggregation. In simulations, we find that average aggregation error tends to peak at 81 sectors after rising from 492 to 365 sectors. Perversely, error then diminishes somewhat as the model size decreases further to 11 and 6 sectors. We also find that while region – and sector –specific attributes influence aggregation error in a statistically significantly manner, their influence on the amount of error generally does not appear to be large.

Notes: The paper re–evaluates the Easterlin hypothesis in a multiregional context by conceptually and methodologically accounting for two processes of spatial interdependence in an open subnational demo–economic system: diffusion of fertility norms and values across space, and movements between labor markets. The empirical analysis estimates pooled cross–sectional, time–series models using data for 18 Italian regions from 1952 to 1995. The results suggest that accounting for spatial interdependencies is necessary to avoid model misspecifications. Moreover, the models lead to space–time landscapes of fertility elasticities that suggest, for the majority of space–time units, an inverse Easterlin effect for the diffusion component but support of the Easterlin hypothesis due to labor movements across space.

Notes: Books Reviewed:Michael L. Lahr and Ronald E. Miller (eds.), Regional Science Perspectives in Economic Analysis: A Festschrift in Memory ofBenjamin H. StevensGraham Clarke and Moss Madden (eds.), Regional Science in BusinessLuis Suarez–Villa, Invention and the Rise of TechnocapitalismSam Bass Warner, Jr., Greater Boston: Adapting Regional Traditions to the PresentJameson W. Doig, Empire on the Hudson: Entrepreneurial Vision and Political Power at the Port of New York AuthorityAlex Hirschfield and Kate Bowers (eds.), Mapping and Analysing Crime Data: Lessons from Research and PracticeAura Reggiani and Daniele Fabbri (eds.), Network Developments in Economic Spatial Systems: New PerspectivesJoseph Persky and Wim Wiewel, When Corporations Leave Town: The Costs and Benefits of Metropolitan Job SprawlKoichi Mera and Bertrand Renaud (eds.), Asia’s Financial Crisis and the Role of Real EstateMassimo Livi Bacci, The Population of Europe: A HistoryByron A. Miller, Geography and Social Movements: ComparingAntinuclear Activism in the Boston AreaRosalind Greenstein and Wim Wiewel (eds.), Urban–Suburban InterdependenciesHeather Nicol and Greg Halseth (eds.), (Re)Developmentat the Urban Edge: Reflections on the Canadian ExperienceMarco Verweij, Transboundary Environmental Problems and Cultural Theory: The Protection of the Rhine and the Great LakesJonathan Raper, Multidimensional Geographic Information Science

Notes: In this paper we consider a location model based on the threshold concept. We find the best location such that the probability of revenue falling short of the threshold is minimized. This objective is appropriate when a firm will not survive if its revenue falls below a known threshold. A new store is to be located. Demand is not deterministic but rather has a statistical distribution. We seek the location at which the probability that the revenue (expressed as market share attracted by the new store) is below a given threshold is minimized. The model is formulated and solved, and computational results are given.

Notes: Various methods, such as biproportional adjustment and econometric estimating have been used to generate time series for input-output tables. In this paper, temporal changes of input-output coefficients are examined in order to analyze their behavior. Within the Chicago Region Econometric Input-Output Model, a set of input- output relationships has been extracted analytically for the period 1980–1997. Using the empirical evidence for Chicago, this paper conducts econometric time series analysis to determine whether or not certain coefficients or sets of coefficients exhibit tendencies toward stability or predictable change or whether others require more extensive econometric estimation.

Notes: Stricter environmental regulations are often opposed on the grounds that they will alter equilibrium capital flows. Empirical evidence in this area remains largely unresolved, mainly due to the quite disparate results found in the literature. This paper takes a positive look at the relationship between new manufacturing plant location decisions and environmental regulations by examining data from 11 studies that provide more than 365 observations. One major result from our meta-analysis is that methodological considerations play a critical role in shaping the body of received estimates. Our empirical estimates also lend insights into future research that is necessary before any robust conclusions can be made regarding the effects of environmental regulations on capital flows.

Notes: We study different methods of immigration control using a simple model of a congested world. Our main comparison involves quotas, the predominant instrument of immigration control, and a proposed system of immigration tolls and emigration subsidies. We show that the equilibrium of the proposed system is Pareto superior to the quota system. This is consistent with the tolls and subsidies creating a market for international migrants. When countries are price-takers the market becomes perfect and the exploitation of gains from trade complete. From a normative perspective, an open- borders policy is preferred to both control methods but will meet political opposition because it hurts the residents of the rich country.

Notes: We depict an industrial district as a center of innovation where positive local spillovers sustain the endogenous invention of new goods by profit-seeking firms. After invention, firms face a crucial choice between reaching distant markets by export or plant delocation. Attempts by firms to circumvent trade barriers through delocation slow down the pace of innovation and harm the welfare of the district.

Notes: An explanation for the rank-size distribution for human settlements based on simple stochastic models of settlement formation and growth is presented. Not only does the analysis of the model explain the rank-size phenomenon in the upper tail, it also predicts a reverse rank-size phenomenon in the lower tail. Furthermore it yields a parametric form (the double Pareto-lognormal distribution) for the complete distribution of settlement sizes. Settlement-size data for four regions (two in Spain and two in the U.S.) are used as examples. For these regions the lower tail rank-size property is seen to hold and the double Pareto-lognormal distribution shown to provide an excellent fit, lending support to the model and to the explanation for the rank-size law.

Notes: Central place theory describes an orderly hierarchy of places, with particular retail services developing for lower-ordered places as they reach a threshold. Yet it is likely that nearby areas could serve simultaneously as a source of demand and a source of competing supply for retail stores in a place. This paper contributes to the understanding of local economic development by modeling and estimating the geographic interdependence between a place and its neighboring areas. The simultaneous equation Tobit results suggest that such geographical interdependence exists for most retail industries, with spatial competition on the supply side being particularly important.

Notes: Differences in both regional skill prices and skill mix can explain interregional variations in wage distributions. We control for interregional differences in skill mix that permit us to compute key parameters of regional wage distributions including regional returns to skills. In addition to setting forth the methods in detail, we also present estimates for 48 U.S. states and 10 Canadian provinces. For both males and females, we find that regional mean wages (with controls for skills mix) in the U.S. and Canada are similar, but that the returns to skills are systematically higher in the U.S.

Notes: Paul C. Cheshire and Edwin S. Mills (eds.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, Vol. 3: Applied Urban EconomicsDonald G. Janelle and David C. Hodge (eds.), Information, Place, and Cyberspace: Issues in AccessibilityCarey McWilliams, California: The Great ExceptionOffice of the Philadelphia City Controller, Philadelphia: A New Urban DirectionJan van der Linden, Interdependence and Specialisation in the European Union: Intercountry Input-Output Analysis and Economic IntegrationWolfgang Weidlich and Günter Haag (eds.), An Integrated Model of Transport and Urban Evolution, With an Application to a Metropole of an Emerging NationRongxing Guo, How the Chinese Economy Works: A Multiregional OverviewHan Meyer, City and Port: Transformation of Port Cities: London, Barcelona, New York, RotterdamFrans Boekema, Kevin Morgan, Silvia Bakkers, and Roel Rutten (eds.), Knowledge, Innovation and Economic Growth: The Theory and Practice of Learning RegionsDavid Keeble and Frank Wilkinson (eds.), High-Technology Clusters, Networking, and Collective Learning in EuropeStephen Castles and Mark J. Miller, The Age of Migration, International Population Movements in the Modern WorldKavita Pandit and Suzanne Davies Withers, (eds.), Migration and Restructuring in the United States: A Geographical PerspectiveMark Casson and Andrew Godley (eds.), Cultural Factors in Economic GrowthJacob B. Polak and Arnold Heertje (eds.), Analytical Transport Economics: An International PerspectiveRobert Lewis, Manufacturing Montreal: The Making of an Industrial Landscape, 1850–1930Edgar W. Butler, James B. Pick, and W. James Hettrick, Mexico and Mexico City in the World EconomyDavid Meyer, Hong Kong as a Global MetropolisEdna Bonacich and Richard P. Applebaum, Behind the Label: Inequality in the Los Angeles Apparel Industry

Notes: More is known about the policies that produce forced evictions and their consequences than about the agencies whose responsibility it is to conduct them. Understanding the nature of forced evictions requires greater comprehension of responsible agencies since the ways in which they implement policies may be a crucial intervening variable influencing the outcomes. In this paper, I use documentary and ethnographic research to describe the Squatter Control and Clearance Division of the Hong Kong Housing Department. Responsible both for evicting squatters and for controlling squatter areas that are permitted to remain for the time being, officers must respond to the conflicts and challenges of their twin, partially conflicting, mandates. Examination of changes in squatter control and clearance practices since 1954 is followed by a brief case study of the most recent squatter clearance that occurred in July 2001.

Notes: Marine fishing is an important traditional economic activity of the coastal communities in Ghana and contributes over 80 per cent of the total fish catch. The traditional sector accounts for over 75 per cent of the marine catch. The small-scale artisanal marine fishing communities, which contribute less than 30 per cent of the traditional sector landings, are generally characterised by low levels of production and, hence, low incomes, poor living conditions and chronic indebtedness. Based on field data on artisanal fishing communities in the Ahanta West and Gomoa districts, this paper summarises the chronic problems of artisanal fishermen that perpetuate their precarious existence in the coastal environment. Overcoming the problems of these increasingly marginalised and migrant communities calls for the provision of supplementary employment opportunities, improved social services and the formation of solidarity groups to enhance access to micro credit. These would require technical and management training as well as support services from government and non-governmental organisations (NGOs).

Notes: This is the second part of a contribution to the debate on the possibilities of leveraging economic globalisation — through incorporation in international production networks and global commodity chains (GCCs) — as a strategy for developing countries to industrialise and advance their position in the world economy. In the first part, we analysed the experience of the East Asian apparel industry and addressed the issues of sustaining positions, upgrading to more rewarding roles, and advancing to less dependent positions within production networks and GCCs. We developed an analytical framework at both the firm and industry levels, and subsequently identified alternative firm- and industry-level strategies and trajectories. The present paper deals with these issues in the context of the Singapore apparel industry. Based on extensive empirical research, we demonstrate that although the East Asian experience of upgrading and repositioning within the GCC is to some extent emulated in the case of the Singapore apparel industry, the outcomes have been less favourable in terms of the depth, extent and strength of these trajectories. The differing outcomes can be explained in terms of different (systemic) conditions in the Singapore business environment, including the agency of local players, the geography of sourcing networks, and the role of the state and prevailing business attitudes. Our conclusions merit continued attention in both research and policy circles on the development of capabilities at the firm level, and the role of local business and institutional environments in local industry development processes under globalisation.

Notes: This paper is about the strategy of retaining unobservably heterogeneous firms attracted by unobservably valued outside alternatives. We prove that differentiating taxation and public good fiscal packages within one’s own locale dominates offering the same packages to all firms. We rationalize the full range of observed practice by considering more than one type of firm, more than one type of fiscal instrument, and all kinds of utility in alternative locations, under asymmetric information. Mobile agents can earn rents under some conditions, and immobile agents earn rents under others. Ways to minimize budgetary exposure in tax wars and effects on the composition of local economies are discussed.

Notes: Industries often promote their interests by arguing that they have a big impact on the rest of the economy. This poses the question of how to measure the importance of an activity. To answer this, the literature often uses (regional) input–output analysis. This paper critically reviews the traditional use of multipliers in such cases. To avoid double–counting impacts and to solve related conceptual problems, the net multiplier concept is introduced. This net multiplier is illustrated empirically for the Dutch transport sector using a Type II biregional input–output model for the Netherlands.

Notes: This paper develops a new way to present standard urban models graphically and a new rent function called the rent-commuting cost function. The rent-commuting cost function represents the relationship between rent and total commuting cost. At least theoretically, it is superior to the traditional rent-distance function in depicting and measuring stylized facts of the city because its gradient is independent of the functional form of the commuting cost function and falls as household income rises.

Notes: In this paper we apply earnings equations for U.K. regions over 1982–1997. We find evidence of rapid convergence across regions regarding the determinants of individual wages (i.e., regional fixed-effects, gender gaps, and returns to education and experience). In contrast, data on average regional earnings point to a worsening of U.K. regional inequalities and a rise in the North-South gap. Education accounts for most of the discrepancy between aggregate divergence and disaggregated convergence. First, London gained because its workforce became relatively more educated over the period. Second, returns to education increased nationwide, which favored the most educated regions (i.e., London). Third, returns to education were initially lower in London but they (partially) caught up with the rest of the country. Had returns to education and their distribution across U.K. regions remained stable over the period, the U.K. North-South divide would have decreased.

Notes: The paper quantifies regional welfare effects arising from the increasing trade flows between Austria and its Eastern neighbors after the opening up of Eastern Europe. We calibrate a static multiregional Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with benchmark data from 1994 for Austria, subdivided into nine Federal Provinces. The regions are linked by trade flows with the four Eastern neighboring countries and with the rest of the world. We simulate the effects of the increase of trade interpenetration as observed between 1989 and 1999 in a comparative static analysis. Regional welfare effects under fixed and flexible wages are presented. We also compare national CGE results with estimates obtained in a simple partial equilibrium approach.

Notes: In the literature, the beneficial result of immigration to the host country relies on the assumption of perfect competition in the goods market. However, for an economy characterized by imperfect competition, immigration of unskilled workers can be welfare-reducing. The entry of skilled workers is nevertheless welfare-enhancing under a plausible factor-intensity condition.

Notes: In this paper I analyze the impact of basic training and specialized training on the distribution of skill, income disparity, social welfare, and on the structure of a decentralized specialized city system. This is done in a spatial general-equilibrium model of a closed economy producing a single consumption good. The economy is populated with a continuum of unskilled labor with potential heterogeneous ability. The only consumption good can be produced by specialized technology or by general technology. Specialized technology requires specialized training that enables each worker to transform his potential ability into productivity. General technology requires basic training that enables all workers, independent of their potential ability, to produce the good at a constant marginal product. In this framework I show that such an equilibrium exists uniquely and is efficient. Then I characterize the conditions that lead to a different distribution of skills, a different system of cities, and generate income disparity endogenously. Thus, the paper presents a link among income disparities, social welfare, and the structure of an urban system that is new to this literature.

Notes: Providers of transportation services may reduce their average unit costs by bundling flows and channeling them between hubs (also known as concentrators or routers). The resulting facility locations are interdependent because of the flows between them. This paper analyzes mathematical models of hub systems in an effort to enhance understanding of the optimal location of interactive facilities. The paper examines the behavior of solutions to several alternative models that require the location of a hub at either of two similar locations. A model employing a concave cost function favors the assembly of flows, penalizes fractional facility locations, and produces local minima that have integer facilities.

Notes: In this study we show that during the postwar era the United States experienced a decline in the share of urban employment accounted for by the relatively dense metropolitan areas and a corresponding rise in the share of relatively less dense ones. This trend, which we call employment deconcentration, is distinct from the other well–known regional trend, namely, the postwar movement of jobs and people from the frostbelt to the sunbelt. We also show that deconcentration has been accompanied by a similar trend within metropolitan areas, wherein employment share of the more dense sections of MSAs has declined and that of the less dense sections risen. We provide a general equilibrium model with density–driven congestion costs to suggest an explanation for employment deconcentration.

Notes: We explore the links between the halt of the convergence process of Italian regions at the beginning of the 1970s and the increase in regional unemployment dispersion. We consider a neoclassical exogenous growth model with an imperfect labor market and show that during the transitional dynamics the imperfections of the labor market negatively influence the output growth rate. In particular, the model implies that centralized bargaining is likely to set a national minimum wage that is too high with respect to the labor productivity of the less developed regions, resulting in a negative impact on their per capita output growth. We test the implications of the model on a regional panel data set using the GMM framework. Both our market distortion measure and the unemployment rate are found to significantly lower the growth rate of per capita output.

Notes: Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used to rank the relative efficiency of thirty–two counties comprising the Greater Minneapolis–St. Paul Metropolitan Region and finds that the greatest external economies originate in the urban core and decline toward the periphery. By employing 1993 IMPLAN input–output database and county estimates of final payments (inputs) and final demands (outputs), DEA classifies efficient and inefficient counties that produce maximum output using minimum input, and a sensitivity analysis ranks counties according to robustness of the efficiency classifications. Efficiency differences between three groups identify the metropolitan core, transitional region, and peripheral region. Dominant industries in the three regions are identified and contrasted using location quotients. This study adopts the various analytical techniques into an urban regional systems approach for policy analysis and implementation.

Notes: This paper provides a temporal stochastic framework that is used to analyze economic transitions of countries in the world–system. As such, it provides a contribution to a general quantitative rendering of the world–systems perspective. State space modeling using Markov chains provides a powerful stochastic instrument for global economic modeling when structure is known but relational uncertainty is present as well as for examining temporal change of geographic phenomena. Two phenomena are examined: (1) country mobility among regional classes within the world–economy; and (2) the stability of the rate of country–level transitions. Results suggest that although a moderate amount of movement has taken place in the period 1960–1990, the overall structure of the world–economy has not changed significantly. Thus, although the developmental hypothesis that countries are upwardly mobile has merit, empirical results suggest that very little impact is observed in the world–system because countries moving upward in the world–economy region sequence are nearly balanced by countries moving down the sequence.

Notes: The deglaciation history of Balsfjord, northern Norway, and post-glacial mass movement events were investigated. Radiocarbon dates indicate that the Balsfjord glacier retreated from the Tromsø–Lyngen moraines about 10.4 14C Ky BP. Between ca. 10.3 14C Ky BP and 9.9 14C Ky BP, deposition of a distinct end moraine–the Skjevelnes moraine–in the central part of Balsfjord occurred. The transition from glacimarine to open marine sedimentary environment took place before 9.6 14C Ky BP. Between ca. 9.5 14C Ky BP and 8.4 14C Ky BP, at least one local and three regional mass movement events occurred. After this period, no gravity flow activity is preserved in the cores. The high frequency of mass movements in the early post-glacial period is presumed to be due to fast sea level changes and/or tectonic activity induced by rapid isostatic uplift.

Notes: Evidence from north-west Iceland's shelf and fjords is used to develop a scenario for environmental change during the last 36 cal Ky. The retreat history of the Iceland Ice Cap during the last deglaciation is delineated through lithofacies studies, carbon analyses and magnetic susceptibility, and studies of ice-rafted debris (IRD) in sediment cores. Sedimentological data from lake Efstadalsvatn, Vestfirdir peninsula, trace the glacier retreat on land. In two of the high resolution shelf cores we detect near continuous IRD accumulation from 36 to 11 cal Kya. However, IRD is absent in the cores from ca. 22 to 19 cal Kya, possibly indicating more extensive landfast sea ice conditions. All cores show intensified IRD during the Younger Dryas chronozone; the fjord cores show a continuous IRD record until 10 cal Kya. Magnetic susceptibility and carbon analyses from Efstadalsvatn reveal the disappearance of local ice in the basin just before 10.5 cal Kya. No IRD was detected in the sediment cores during 10 to Ø4 cal Kya. Some indication of cooling occurs between 4 and 3 cal Kya, with a fresh input of IRD in fjord cores after 1 cal Kya.

Notes: South-western Greenland constitutes an internationally important wintering area for many seabird species. Several species of management concern have a predominantly near-coastal distribution, though available information about seabird numbers is mostly confined to offshore waters. Here we report on extensive aerial surveys conducted in March 1999, covering the coastal waters (up to 15-20 km from the mainland coast) and fjords of south-west Greenland. The most widespread and numerous species were estimated as 463 000 common eiders (Somateria mollissima), 153000 king eiders (S. spectabilis), 125000 thick-billed murres (Uria lomvia), 94 000 long-tailed ducks (Clangula hyemails), and 12 000 black guillemots (Cepphus grylle). A total of 19 bird species were recorded. The estimates for common eider and long-tailed duck approximately represent the entire winter population in south-western Greenland while estimates for the other species represent only an unknown proportion since their distribution continues further offshore. Waters around Nuuk and within the Julianehåbsbugten (Julianehåb Bay) area were identified as areas of high seabird density. A large proportion of the common eider population was aggregated in the fjord systems (22%), calling attention to the importance of fjords for this species. In contrast, pelagic seabird species appear to be absent from the fjords. The large winter population of common eider reveals the importance of south-western Greenland as a key wintering area for the eastern Canadian breeding population. The western Greenland breeding population is the only other contributor, probably amounting to no more than 15 000 pairs.

Notes: We studied carbon dynamics on various surface parts of a highly patterned fen, typical in northern Finland, to examine the importance of different microsites to the areal carbon fluxes. The studies were carried out in June-September 1995 on a mesotrophic flark fen (an aapa mire) in Kaamanen (69°08′N, 27° 17′E). Wet flarks, moist lawns and dry strings accounted for 60%, 10% and 30% of the surface area, respectively. A static chamber technique was applied to measure the CH4 exchange, the instantaneous net ecosystem exchange (NEE, transparent chamber) and the ecosystem respiration (Rtot′ opaque chamber) in several microsites. The static chamber results were compared with those obtained by the eddy covariance technique. The mean daytime areal net ecosystem CO2 exchange rate measurement in conditions where photosynthesis was light saturated (PAR〉400 μmol m-2 s-1) varied during the measurement period from −59 mg CO2-C m−2h−1 (release) to 250 (uptake). The mean CH4 emission during the measuring period was 78 mg CH4-Cm−2 d−1 on the flarks, 68 mg on the lawn and 6.0 mg on the strings. The strings without shrubs (mainly Betula nana) were in general net sources of CO2, even during the middle of the growing season, whereas the lawns, flarks and also strings growing B. nana showed a daytime net uptake of CO2. Areally integrated chamber results showed lower CO2 and higher CH4 fluxes than predicted from the eddy covariance measurements.

Notes: North-west Spitsbergen consists of a complex of Caledonian and Grenvillian crystalline rocks, situated at the north-west corner of the Barents Shelf. The aim of this study is to understand the extent of pre-Caledonian basement rocks and their protoliths. Micas and zircon grains from six rocks from north-west Spitsbergen have been dated by the 40Ar/39Ar and single-zircon Pb-evaporation methods. Two grey granites yielded Late Caledonian mica 40Ar/39Ar and zircon ages of ca. 420-430 My, with inherited zircon grains as old as 1725 My. Zircon grains from a gneissose granite xenolith in a grey granites gave crystallization ages of ca. 960 My; some grains from a migmatite neosome show similar ages. Zircon grains yielding Archean and late Palaeoproterozoic ages (1600-1800 My) are interpreted as xenocrysts of detrital origin. The youngest ages obtained from detrital zircon grains from a greenschist facies quartzite of the Signehamna unit are ca. 1800 My. Similar schists are included as xenoliths in the 960 My old gneissose granite; therefore, the sedimentary protoliths of the unit are Mesoproterozoic. The dating results suggest a significant tectonothermal event during Grenvillian time; subsequent Caledonian events had less extensive thermal effects. However, it is still a matter of debate whether Grenvillian or Caledonian metamorphism produced the majority of the migmatites. A large population of zircon grains with Late Palaeoproterozoic ages suggests a wide surface exposure of rocks of this age in the source area, with some Archean zircons.

Notes: Kongsfjorden is a glacial fjord in the Arctic (Svalbard) that is influenced by both Atlantic and Arctic water masses and harbours a mixture of boreal and Arctic flora and fauna. Inputs from large tidal glaciers create steep environmental gradients in sedimentation and salinity along the length of this fjord. The glacial inputs cause reduced biomass and diversity in the benthic community in the inner fjord. Zooplankton suffers direct mortality from the glacial outflow and primary production is reduced because of limited light levels in the turbid, mixed inner waters. The magnitude of the glacial effects diminishes towards the outer fjord. Kongsfjorden is an important feeding ground for marine mammals and seabirds. Even though the fjord contains some boreal fauna, the prey consumed by upper trophic levels is mainly Arctic organisms. Marine mammals constitute the largest top-predator biomass, but seabirds have the largest energy intake and also export nutrients and energy out of the marine environment. Kongsfjorden has received a lot of research attention in the recent past. The current interest in the fjord is primarily based on the fact that Kongsfjorden is particularly suitable as a site for exploring the impacts of possible climate changes, with Atlantic water influx and melting of tidal glaciers both being linked to climate variability. The pelagic ecosystem is likely to be most sensitive to the Atlantic versus Arctic influence, whereas the benthic ecosystem is more affected by long-term changes in hydrography as well as changes in glacial runoff and sedimentation. Kongsfjorden will be an important Arctic monitoring site over the coming decades and a review of the current knowledge, and a gap analysis, are therefore warranted. Important knowledge gaps include a lack of quantitative data on production, abundance of key prey species, and the role of advection on the biological communities in the fjord.

Notes: : In Yegua Creek, a principal tributary of the Brazos River in Texas, surveys of a 19 km channel reach downstream of Somerville Dam show that channel capacity decreased by an average of 65 percent in a 34 year period following dam closure. The decrease corresponds with an approximately 85 percent reduction in annual flood peaks. Channel depth has changed the most, decreasing by an average of 61 percent. Channel width remained stable with an average decrease of only 9 percent, reflecting cohesive bank materials along with the growth of riparian vegetation resulting from increased low flows during dry summer months. Although large changes in stream channel geometry are not uncommon downstream of dams, such pronounced reductions in channel capacity could have long-term implications for sediment delivery through the system.

Notes: : The proposed removal of Ballville Dam was assessed by (1) using a new Geographic Information Systems (GIS) based method for calculating reservoir sediment storage, (2) evaluating sediment properties and contamination from core data, and (3) assessing downstream impacts from sediment routing calculations. A 1903 (pre-dam) map was manipulated using GIS to recreate the reservoir bathymetry at time of dam construction and used in combination with a detailed 1993 bathymetric survey to calculate sediment volumes and thickness. Reservoir sediment properties and geochemistry were determined from 14 sediment vibracores. Annual sedimentation rates varied from 1.7 to 4.3 g/cm2/yr based on Cesium-137 (137Cs) and Lead-210 (210Pb) geochronology and dated flood layers. The pore fluid geochemistry (Ba, Co, Cu, Mn) of four cores showed surficial enrichments in Cu, while Co and Mn show secondary peaks within the sediments. GIS calculations showed that a designed channel through the former reservoir able to accommodate the 10 percent Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) would require removing approximately 0.35 million m3 of sediment (27 percent of the reservoir fill), either by dredging at a cost of up to $6.3 million or by releasing fine grained sediment downstream. A sediment routing model was applied for the critical 6 km downstream using four cross sections. The sediment routing model predicts that, for flows exceeding minimum Mean Daily Flow (1924 to 1998 data), greater than 90 percent of this sediment would be transported through downstream reaches into Lake Erie (Sandusky Bay).

Notes: : This paper outlines a sound, practical approach for making more informed decisions about environmental policy choices. It emphasizes the importance of using a structured decision process to specify and organize values, use these values to create alternatives, and assess tradeoffs to help achieve a desired balance across key objectives. Although these decision making steps are based on common sense, they are often neglected or poorly carried out as part of the complex evaluations of natural resource options. We discuss several reasons for this frequent neglect of decision making principles and provide examples from recent water use planning projects to demonstrate some of the benefits of using a structured, decision focused approach: new and better solutions, increased and more productive participation by stakeholders, and greater defensibility and acceptance of the resource management evaluation process and its conclusions.

Notes: : Nutrient loading from beef pastures located within the northern Lake Okeechobee watershed in Florida, has been identified as a source of phosphorus contributing to the accelerated eutrophication of the lake. Since 1989 within the watershed, 557 agricultural drainage sites, mainly beef pasture, have been monitored for compliance under a regulatory program. Of those sites, 154 were actively monitored for phosphorus concentrations from October 1, 1998, to September 30, 1999. Of these 154 sites, 77 were considered to be out of compliance (OOC). An OOC site is defined as having runoff with a 12-month average phosphorus concentration exceeding the permitted discharge limit. The average annual phosphorous load from the 77 OOC sites for an eight-year study period from October 1, 1991, to September 30, 1999, was estimated using measured concentration values and simulated runoff obtained from an agricultural nonpoint source pollution model, CREAMS-WT. The 77 OOC sites produced an estimated average annual 46 metric tonnes of phosphorus load, of which an estimated 22 tonnes of phosphorus reached Lake Okeechobee on an average annual basis. The remaining estimated average annual 24 tonnes of phosphorus load was retained by streams and wetlands in the discharge transport system between the sites and the lake. The estimated average annual load reaching Lake Okeechobee from the OOC sites represented 11 percent of the phosphorus load above a five-year average annual target load for the lake. However, the OOC site drainage areas represented only 3 percent of the northern watershed that drains into the lake. Of the 77 OOC sites, 12 sites had an average annual phosphorus loading rate equal to or greater than 3.0 kg/ha and were placed on the priority list for the Critical Restoration Project in the Lake Okeechobee watershed. To estimate the possible phosphorus load reductions from the 77 sites, two scenarios were modeled. The first scenario reduced phosphorus concentrations in runoff to the permitted discharge limits under the Lake Okeechobee regulatory program. The second scenario changed current land uses to native rangeland with an estimated annual offsite total phosphorus areal loading rate of 0.114 kg/ha. These two scenarios are hypothetical with assumed concentration values and loading rate. Model results showed that the first management scenario reduced the average annual phosphorus load to the lake by an estimated 15 tonnes. The second scenario reduced the average annual phosphorus load to the lake by an estimated 21 tonnes.

Notes: : Accurate estimates of evapotranspiration from areas dominated by wetland vegetation are needed in the water budget of the Upper St. Johns River Basin. However, local data on evapotranspiration rates, especially in wetland environments, were lacking in the project area. In response to this need, the St. Johns River Water Management District collected evapotranspiration field data in Fort Drum Marsh Conservation Area over the period 1996 through 1999. Three large lysimeters were installed to measure the evapotranspiration from different wetland environments: sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense), cattail (Typha domingensis), and open water. In addition, pan evaporation was measured with a standard class “A” pan. Concurrently, meteorological data including rainfall, solar radiation, wind speed, relative humidity, air temperature, and atmospheric pressure were collected. By comparing computed evapotranspiration rates with those measured in the lysimeters, parameters in the Penman-Monteith, the Priestley-Taylor, and Reference-ET methods, and evaporation pan coefficients were estimated for monthly and seasonal cycles. The results from the data collected in this study show that mean monthly evapotranspiration rates, computed by the different methods, are relatively close. From a practical point of view, results indicate that the evaporation pan can be used equally well as the more complex and data-intensive methods. This paper presents the measured evapotranspiration rates, evaporation pan coefficients, and the estimated parameter values for three different methods to compute evapotranspiration in the project area. Since local data on evaporation are often scarce or lacking, this information may be useful to watershed hydrologists for practical application in other project regions.

Notes: : A previous modeling study used the Generalized Watershed Loading Functions (GWLF) model to simulate stream-flow, and nutrient and sediment loads to Cannonsville Reservoir from the West Branch Delaware River (WBDR). We made several model revisions, calibrated key parameters, and tested the original GWLF model and a revised GWLF model using more recent data. Model revisions included: addition of unsaturated leakage between unsaturated and saturated subsurface reservoirs; revised timing of sediment export; inclusion of urban sediments and dissolved nutrients; tracking of particulate nutrients from point sources; and revised timing of septic system loads. The revision of sediment yield timing resulted in significant improvements in monthly sediment and particulate phosphorus predictions as compared to the original model. Addition of unsaturated leakage improved hydrologic predictions during low flow months. The other model changes improve realism without adding significant model complexity or data requirements. Goodness of fit of revised model predictions versus stream measurements, as measured by the Nash-Sutcliff coefficient of model efficiency, exceeded 0.8 for streamflow-0.7 for sediment yield and dissolved nitrogen (N) and 0.6 for particulate and dissolved phosphorus (P). The revised GWLF model, with limited calibration, provides reasonable estimates of monthly streamflow, and nutrient and sediment loads in the Cannonsville watershed.

Notes: : Since 1989, the government of Pierce County, Washington, has prepared four watershed action plans. The watersheds cover almost 800,000 acres and include about 600,000 residents and diverse land uses, from the city of Tacoma to Mount Rainier National Park. The primary purpose of these plans was to address water quality impacts from nonpoint sources of pollution and to protect beneficial uses of water. Pierce County has experienced problems such as shellfish bed closures and the Federal Clean Water Act Section 303(d) listing of local water bodies as a result of declining water quality. Pierce County achieved improvements by engaging diverse groups of stakeholders in generating solutions to nonpoint sources of water pollution through our watershed planning process. Using participatory methods borrowed from private industry, Pierce County was able to reach consensus, build trust, maximize participation, facilitate learning, encourage creativity, develop partnerships, shorten time frames for the planning processes, and increase the level of commitment participants had to implementing the plans. As a result, the earliest plans have a high rate of voluntary implementation. This indicates that the process and methodology used to develop watershed plans has a significant, if not critical, impact on their success.

Notes: : This study was designed to give insight into the values considered in environmental policy and illustrate the respondents' personal constructions related to creating policy through the development of a graphic tool. Using both qualitative and quantitative methods, this study anonymously captured the intensity of values currently held by decision makers and tracked changes in values over time. Data were acquired through observations of and interviews with stakeholders in a five-year wetland mitigation bank permitting process at the Galveston District of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The study included public and private sector respondents in both governmental and nongovernmental roles. The resulting representations of professional and personal stakeholders' values can be used as a tool for improving information exchange in policy negotiation and provides insight into the complexity of individual and corporate perceptions of a policy issue.

Notes: : Macroinvertebrates were used to assess the impact of urbanization on stream quality across a gradient of watershed imperviousness in 43 southeastern Wisconsin streams. The percentage of watershed connected imperviousness was chosen as the urbanization indicator to examine impact of urban land uses on macroinvertebrate communities. Most urban land uses were negatively correlated with the Shannon diversity index, percent of pollution intolerant Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera individuals, and generic richness. Nonurban land uses were positively correlated with these same metrics. The Hilsenhoff biotic index indicated that stream quality declined with increased urbanization. Functional feeding group metrics varied across a gradient of urbanization, suggesting changes in stream quality. Proportions of collectors and gatherers increased, while proportions of filterers, scrapers, and shredders decreased with increased watershed imperviousness. This study demonstrated that urbanization severely degraded stream macroinvertebrate communities, hence stream quality. Good stream quality existed where imperviousness was less than 8 percent, but less favorable assessments were inevitable where imperviousness exceeded 12 to 20 percent. Levels of imperviousness between 8 and 12 percent represented a threshold where minor increases in urbanization were associated with sharp declines in stream quality.

Notes: : Over the last 20 years, our possibilities to model river flows numerically have increased enormously. In this paper, the question is addressed whether a more sophisticated model is always better than a simpler one. Increased detail, both in finer resolution and in physical processes taken into account, has its price in more computer time, higher data need, and perhaps more unknown coefficients to be calibrated. Moreover, uncertainty in actual physical conditions (e.g., bottom roughness), inflow and parameters remains, which may dominate the uncertainty of the results. Also, the questions asked by a decision maker may not always be very precise. For a schematic but relevant example, we show that a better model does not necessarily give more reliable results because some of the basic uncertainties remain. It is concluded that we should use the simplest model that will answer the question as to the accuracy needed, taking into account uncertainties in the data

Notes: : Adaptive management is a heuristic approach to treating stream restoration projects as continuous, cyclic experiments, yielding results to be incorporated into future decisions. This comprehensive assessment views failures as surprises that are valuable lessons. Monitoring, evaluation of data, and communication of results are critical; the monitoring results trigger feedback mechanisms to invoke adaptation to the newly acquired information and communication of new hypotheses, treatments, or policies. The principles of adaptive management were applied to a monitoring study of three urban stream restoration sites in Maryland. Data were collected and evaluated for various restoration techniques, including vanes, cross vanes, step pools, root wads, imbricated riprap walls, and coir fiber rolls. Improvements to the existing Maryland design guidelines and policies were developed as the feedback mechanism. With the increasing application of adaptive management in stream restoration efforts, it is likely that repeated failures will be prevented and future restoration projects will be more successful in achieving their goals.

Notes: : We evaluated the effectiveness of watershed-scale implementations of best-management practices (BMPs) for improving habitat and fish attributes in two coldwater stream systems in Wisconsin. We sampled physical habitat, water temperature, and fish communities in multiple paired treatment and reference streams before and after upland (barnyard runoff controls, manure storage, contour plowing, reduced tillage) and riparian (stream bank fencing, sloping, limited rip-rapping) BMP installation in the treatment subwatersheds. In Spring Creek, BMPs significantly improved overall stream habitat quality, bank stability, instream cover for fish, abundance of cool- and coldwater fishes, and abundance of all fishes. Improvements were most pronounced at sites with riparian BMPs. Water temperatures were consistently cold enough to support coldwater fishes such as trout (Salmonidae) and sculpins (Cottidae) even before BMP installation. We observed the first-time occurrence of naturally reproduced brown trout (Salmo trutta) in Spring Creek, indicating that the stream condition had been improved to be able to partially sustain a trout population. In Eagle Creek and its tributary Joos Creek, limited riparian BMPs led to localized gains in overall habitat quality, bank stability, and water depth. However, because few upland BMPs were installed in the subwatershed there were no improvements in water temperature or the quality of the fish community. Temperatures remained marginal for coldwater fish throughout the study. Our results demonstrate that riparian BMPs can improve habitat conditions in Wisconsin streams, but cannot restore coldwater fish communities if there is insufficient upland BMP implementation. Our approach of studying multiple paired treatment and reference streams before and after BMP implementation proved effective in detecting the response of stream ecosystems to watershed management activities.

Notes: : The predominant mixtures of pesticides found in New York surface waters consist of five principal components. First, herbicides commonly used on corn (atrazine, metolachlor, alachlor, cyanazine) and a herbicide degradate (deethylatrazine) were positively correlated to a corn-herbicide component, and watersheds with the highest corn-herbicide component scores were those in which large amounts of row crops are grown. Second, two insecticides (diazinon and carbaryl) and one herbicide (prometon) widely used in urban and residential settings were positively correlated to an urban/residential component. Watersheds with the highest urban/residential component scores were those with large amounts of urban and residential land use. A third component was related to two herbicides (EPTC and cyanazine) used on dry beans and corn, the fourth to an herbicide (simazine) and an insecticide (carbaryl) commonly used in orchards and vineyards, and the fifth to an herbicide (DCPA). Results of this study indicate that this approach can be used to: (1) identify common mixtures of pesticides in surface waters, (2) relate these mixtures to land use and pesticide applications, and (3) indicate regions where these mixtures of pesticides are commonly found.

Notes: : Nine surface water-quality variables were analyzed for trend at 180 Virginia locations over the 1978 to 1995 period. Median values and seasonal Kendall's tau, a trend indicator statistic, were generated for dissolved oxygen saturation (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), pH (PH), total residue (TR), nonfilterable residue (NFR), nitrate-nitrite nitrogen (NN), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), total phosphorus (TP), and fecal coliform (FC) at each location. Each location was assigned to one of four physiographic regions, and mean state and regional medians and taus were calculated. Widespread BOD and NFR improvements were detected and FC improvements occurred in the state's western regions. TR and TKN exhibited predominantly increasing trends at locations throughout the state. BOD, TKN, NFR, and TR medians were higher at coastal locations than in other regions. NN, TKN, and TR exhibited predominantly increasing trends in regions with high median concentrations, while declining trends predominated in regions with relatively high BOD, FC, and NFR medians. Appalachian locations exhibited the greatest regional water-quality improvements for BOD, FC, NFR, and TKN. Factors responsible for regional differences appear to include geology, land use, and landscape features; these factors vary regionally.

Notes: : Driven by increasing concerns about bacterial pollution from agricultural sources, states such as Virginia have initiated cost sharing programs that encourage the use of animal waste best management practices (BMPs) to control this pollution. Although a few studies have shown that waste management BMPs are effective at the field scale, their effectiveness at the watershed scale and over the long term is unknown. The focus of this research was to evaluate the effectiveness of BMPs in reducing bacterial pollution at the watershed scale and over the long term. To accomplish this goal, a 1,163 ha watershed located in the Piedmont region of Virginia was monitored over a ten-year period. Fecal coliforms (FC) and fecal streptococci (FS) were measured as indicators of bacterial pollution. A pre-BMP versus post-BMP design was adopted. Major BMPs implemented were manure storage facilities, stream fencing, water troughs, and nutrient management. Seasonal Kendall trend analysis revealed a significant decreasing trend during the post-BMP period for FC concentrations at the watershed outlet, but not at the subwatershed level. Implementation of BMPs also resulted in a significant reduction in the geometric mean of FS concentrations. FC concentrations in streamflow at the watershed outlet exceeded the Virginia primary standard 86 and 74 percent of the time during pre-BMP and post-BMP periods, respectively. Corresponding exceedances for the secondary standard were 50 and 41 percent. Violations decreased only slightly during the post-BMP period. The findings of this study suggest that although BMP implementation can be expected to accomplish some improvement in water quality, BMP implementation alone may not ensure compliance with current water quality standards.

Notes: : A monthly water-balance (WB) model was tested in 44 river basins from diverse physiographic and climatic regions across the conterminous United States (U.S.). The WB model includes the concepts of climatic water supply and climatic water demand, seasonality in climatic water supply and demand, and soil-moisture storage. Exhaustive search techniques were employed to determine the optimal set of precipitation and temperature stations, and the optimal set of WB model parameters to use for each basin. It was found that the WB model worked best for basins with: (1) a mean elevation less than 450 meters or greater than 2000 meters, and/or (2) monthly runoff that is greater than 5 millimeters (mm) more than 80 percent of the time. In a separate analysis, a multiple linear regression (MLR) was computed using the adjusted R-square values obtained by comparing measured and estimated monthly runoff of the original 44 river basins as the dependent variable, and combinations of various independent variables [streamflow gauge latitude, longitude, and elevation; basin area, the long-term mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation; temperature and runoff; and low-flow statistics (i.e., the percentage of months with monthly runoff that is less than 5 mm)]. Results from the MLR study showed that the reliability of a WB model for application in a specific region can be estimated from mean basin elevation and the percentage of months with gauged runoff less than 5 mm. The MLR equations were subsequently used to estimate adjusted R-square values for 1,646 gauging stations across the conterminous U.S. Results of this study indicate that WB models can be used reliably to estimate monthly runoff in the eastern U.S., mountainous areas of the western U.S., and the Pacific Northwest. Applications of monthly WB models in the central U.S. can lead to uncertain estimates of runoff.

Notes: : This paper brings together spatially and temporally explicit mechanistic models of hydrodynamic, water quality, and ecological processes with an economic model to examine water management alternatives for California's Sacramento River and Delta ecosystem, a large-scale watershed. Overallocated water supplies in most years, combined with increasing demand for water for environmental purposes, have created a politically charged atmosphere and a need for quantitative assessment of the implications of policy alternatives. By developing and analyzing a common set of policy scenarios, this integrated framework allows us to consider tradeoffs between agricultural economic factors, water quality, and population dynamics for two at-risk fish species. We analyze two rather extreme types of policy options; one involves structural modifications to change the flow of water within the watershed but no change in water diversions, while the other reallocates water from agricultural users to fish and wildlife. Results suggest that substantial environmental improvements could be made at a relatively modest cost to farmers (1 to 4 percent reductions in revenues) but that those costs could be significant locally. In addition to tradeoffs between farmers and environmental interests, results suggest that policy makers may need to balance competing environmental objectives.

Notes: : An analytic methodology utilizing models from three disciplines is developed to assess the viability of brush control for water yield in the Frio River basin, Texas. Ecological, hydrologic, and economic models are used to portray changes in forage production and water supply resulting from brush control, and to value supplemental water produced through brush control. Site-specific biophysical characteristics are used to simulate water yields from brush control across the watershed. Economic benefits from increased animal production for ranchers undertaking brush control are assessed. Benefits to Corpus Christi residential water consumers from ranchers' brush control activities are evaluated using the change in consumer surplus resulting from supplemental water produced through brush control. Results indicate an increase in water yield with brush control on 35 percent of the land area in the basin. However, the cost of brush control is more than the increase in returns it fosters on most range sites. Consumer surplus change for Corpus Christi residents over 25 years is zero under baseline conditions, implying subsidies for brush control in the Frio basin are not worthwhile at this time.

Notes: : Nonpoint pollution in the form of runoff generated by conventional agricultural practices is one of the major sources of environmental degradation of surface water bodies. Agricultural conservation practices including no-tillage operations have been introduced as alternatives to cope with such challenges. This study attempts to examine the economic and environmental impacts of no-tillage as compared to conventional agricultural practices for cotton, soybeans and corn cultivated in the Mississippi Delta. Impacts in the form of sediment, nutrient and pesticide runoff at farm level are investigated, using the Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC).

Notes: : Making decisions for environmental management is a complex task due to the multiplicity and diversity of technological choices. Furthermore, the exploitation of natural resources and the preservation of the natural environment imply objectives that are often in conflict within a sustainable development paradigm. Managers and other decision makers require techniques to assist them in understanding strategic decision making. This paper illustrates the use of a multiple-objective decision-making methodology and an integrative geographical information system-based decision-making tool developed to help watershed councils prioritize and evaluate restoration activities at the watershed level. Both were developed through a multidisciplinary approach. The decision-making tool is being applied in two watersheds of Oregon's Willamette River Basin. The results suggest that multiple-objective methods can provide a valuable tool in analyzing complex watershed management issues.

Notes: : Changes in watershed management and policy in Hawaii are an instructive case study on the evolution of resource management from a traditional vertically integrated system, to a segmented central government-based system, and now towards a community and watershed focus. The rise of European social and economic influences coupled with the precipitous decline in the Hawaiian population in the years following European contact led to the destruction of traditional management structures. Subsequently, the dominance of outside interests in Hawaii society and politics, culminating with the sugar industry, facilitated the unrestricted use and privatization of land and water resources. The post-World War II era ushered in fundamental changes in Hawaii society and politics including renewed appreciation of traditional management practices. Government policies, increased community interest in resource management, and a renaissance in Hawaiian culture have converged in recent years to facilitate the development of new management structures that draw on both traditional and contemporary management. These structures hold great promise for improving Hawaiian watershed management. Our observations suggest that other jurisdictions may find it productive to examine traditional management and policy structures and try to relate them to contemporary community-based resource management policies and activities.

Notes: : This paper describes the integration of a comprehensive hydrological model known as the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) into a problem solving environment (PSE) for watershed management. The original PSE concept was a structure providing web-based access to a suite of models, including HSPF and other models of in-stream hydrodynamics, biological impacts and economic effects, for the watershed-wide assessment of alternative land use scenarios. The present paper describes only the HSPF integration into the PSE program. Example applications to the 148 square kilometer (57 square mile) Back Creek subwatershed in the upper Roanoke River system (1,479 square kilometers or 571 square miles) in southwest Virginia are used to illustrate important concepts and linkages between land development and hydrological change using hypothetical' what if'scenarios. The features of HSPF and its limitations in this context are discussed. The paper as such is a proof-of-concept paper and not a completion report. It is intended to describe the PSE tool building process rather than analysis of the many possible simulation outcomes. However, the dominance of raw imperviousness as a contributor to hydrograph response is apparent in all the PSE simulations described in this paper.

Notes: : The primary objective of this study was to perform a cost-benefit analysis of maintaining the current level of water quality in the Catawba River basin. Economic benefits were estimated using a stated preference survey method designed to value respondents' willingness to pay for a management plan to protect water quality in the Catawba basin over time. From the surveys conducted with 1,085 area residents, we calculated an annual mean willingness to pay of $139 for the management plan, or more than $75.4 million for all taxpayers in the area. Over the five-year time horizon in which respondents were asked to pay for the management plan, this resulted in a total economic benefit of $340.1 million. The Watershed Analysis Risk Management Framework model was used to estimate the amount of management activities needed to protect the current level of water quality in the basin over time. Based on the model results, the total cost of the management plan was calculated to be $244.8 million over a ten-year period. The resulting cost-benefit analysis indicated that the potential benefits of this management plan would outweigh the costs by more than $95 million.