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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    SENSITWITY OF IRRIGATION DEMAND IN A HUMID-TEMPERATE REGION TO HYPOTHETICAL CLIMATIC CHANGE (1992)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Journal of the American Water Resources Association 28 (1992), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1752-1688
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: : An irrigation model based on a modified Thornthwaite water balance was used to simulate the effects of various hypothetical climatic changes on annual irrigation demand in a humidtemperate climate. The climatic-change scenarios consisted of combinations of changes in temperature, precipitation, and stomatal resistance of plants to transpiration. The objectives were to (1) examine the effects of long-term changes in these components of climatic change on annual irrigation demand, and (2) identify which of these factors would cause the largest changes in annual irrigation demand.Hypothetical climatic changes that only included increases in temperature and changes in precipitation resulted in increased annual irrigation demand, even with a 20 percent increase in precipitation. The model results showed that, for the ranges of changes in temperature and precipitation used in this study, changes in irrigation demand were more sensitive to changes in temperature than to changes in precipitation. Model results also indicated that increased stomatal resistance to transpiration counteracted the effects of increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation on irrigation demand. Changes in irrigation demand were even more sensitive to changes in stomatal resistance than to changes in temperature. A large amount of uncertainty is associated with predictions of future climatic conditions; however, uncertainty associated with natural climatic variability may be larger and may mask the effects of climatic change on irrigation demand.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1992.tb03175.x
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    HYDROLOGIC EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE DELAWARE RWER BASIN (1989)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Journal of the American Water Resources Association 25 (1989), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1752-1688
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: : The Thornthwaite water balance and combinations of temperature and precipitation changes representing climate change were used to estimate changes in seasonal soil-moisture and runoff in the Delaware River basin. Winter warming may cause a greater proportion of precipitation in the northern part of the basin to fall as rain, which may increase winter runoff and decrease spring and summer runoff. Estimates of total annual runoff indicate that a 5 percent increase in precipitation would be needed to counteract runoff decreases resulting from a warming of 2°C; a 15 percent increase for a warming of 4°C. A warming of 2° to 4°C, without precipitation increases, may cause a 9 to 25 percent decrease in runoff. The general circulation model derived changes in annual runoff ranged from −39 to +9 percent. Results generally agree with those obtained in studies elsewhere. The changes in runoff agree in direction but differ in magnitude. In this humid temperate climate, where precipitation is evenly distributed over the year, decreases in snow accumulation in the northern part of the basin and increases in evapotranspiration throughout the basin could change the timing of runoff and significantly reduce total annual water availability unless precipitation were to increase concurrently.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1989.tb01335.x
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER RESOURCES IN THE DELAWARE RWER BASIN (1993)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Journal of the American Water Resources Association 29 (1993), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1752-1688
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: : The effects of potential climate change on water resources in the Delaware River basin were determined. The study focused on two important water-resource components in the basin: (1) storage in the reservoirs that supply New York City, and (2) the position of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary. Current reservoir operating procedures provide for releases from the New York City reservoirs to maintain the position of the salt front in the estuary downstream from freshwater intakes and ground-water recharge zones in the Philadelphia metropolitan area.A hydrologic model of the basin was developed to simulate changes in New York City reservoir storage and the position of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary given changes in temperature and precipitation. Results of simulations indicated that storage depletion in the New York City reservoirs is a more likely effect of changes in temperature and precipitation than is the upstream movement of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary. In contrast, the results indicated that a rise in sea level would have a greater effect on movement of the salt front than on storage in the New York City reservoirs. The model simulations also projected that, by decreasing current mandated reservoir releases, a balance can be reached wherein the negative effects of climate change on storage in the New York City reservoirs and the position of the salt front in the Delaware River estuary are minimized. Finally, the results indicated that natural variability in climate is of such magnitude that its effects on water resources could overwhelm the effects of long-term trends in precipitation and temperature.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1993.tb03225.x
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    REPLY TO DISCUSSION by David L. Verbyla (1990)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Journal of the American Water Resources Association 26 (1990), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1752-1688
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1990.tb01418.x
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    EFFECTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE ON THE THORNTHWAITE MOISTURE INDEX (1990)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Journal of the American Water Resources Association 26 (1990), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1752-1688
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: : The Thornthwaite moisture index is a useful indicator of the supply of water (precipitation) in an area relative to the demand for water under prevailing climatic conditions (potential evapotranspiration). This study examines the effects of changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the conterminous United States. Estimates of changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation for doubled-atmospheric CO2 conditions derived from three general circulation models (GCMs) are used to study the response of the moisture index under steady-state doubled-CO2 conditions. Results indicate that temperature and precipitation changes under doubled-CO2 conditions generally will cause the Thornthwaite moisture index to decrease, implying a drier climate for most of the United States. The pattern of expected decrease is consistent among the three GCMs, although the amount of decrease depends on which GCM climatic-change scenario is used. Results also suggest that changes in the moisture index are related mainly to changes in the mean annual potential evapotranspiration as a result of changes in the mean annual temperature, rather than to changes in the mean annual precipitation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1990.tb01400.x
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    GENERAL-CIRCULATION-MODEL SIMULATIONS OF FUTURE SNOWPACK IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35 (1999), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1752-1688
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: : April 1 snowpack accumulations measured at 311 snow courses in the western United States (U.S.) are grouped using a correlation-based cluster analysis. A conceptual snow accumulation and melt model and monthly temperature and precipitation for each cluster are used to estimate cluster-average April 1 snowpack. The conceptual snow model is subsequently used to estimate future snowpack by using changes in monthly temperature and precipitation simulated by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCC) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HADLEY) general circulation models (GCMs). Results for the CCC model indicate that although winter precipitation is estimated to increase in the future, increases in temperatures will result in large decreases in April 1 snowpack for the entire western U.S. Results for the HADLEY model also indicate large decreases in April 1 snowpack for most of the western US, but the decreases are not as severe as those estimated using the CCC simulations. Although snowpack conditions are estimated to decrease for most areas of the western US, both GCMs estimate a general increase in winter precipitation toward the latter half of the next century. Thus, water quantity may be increased in the western US; however, the timing of runoff will be altered because precipitation will more frequently occur as rain rather than as snow.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04231.x
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    ESTIMATES OF RUNOFF USING WATER-BALANCE AND ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS (1999)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35 (1999), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1752-1688
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: : The effects of potential climate change on mean annual runoff in the conterminous United States (U.S.) are examined using a simple water-balance model and output from two atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs). The two GCMs are from the Canadian Centre for Climate Prediction and Analysis (CCC) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HAD). In general, the CCC GCM climate results in decreases in runoff for the conterminous U.S., and the HAD GCM climate produces increases in runoff. These estimated changes in runoff primarily are the result of estimated changes in precipitation. The changes in mean annual runoff, however, mostly are smaller than the decade-to-decade variability in GCM-based mean annual runoff and errors in GCM-based runoff. The differences in simulated runoff between the two GCMs, together with decade-to-decade variability and errors in GCM-based runoff, cause the estimates of changes in runoff to be uncertain and unreliable.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1999.tb04219.x
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    VERIFICATION OF THE RHEA-OROGRAPHIC-PRECIPITATION MODEL (1998)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Journal of the American Water Resources Association 34 (1998), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1752-1688
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: : Observed April 1 snowpack accumulations within and near the Gunnison River basin in southwestern Colorado are compared with simulations from the Rhea-orographic-precipitation model to determine if the model simulates reliable magnitudes and temporal and spatial variability in winter precipitation for the basin. Twenty simulations of the Rhea model were performed using‘optimal’parameter sets determined for 10-kilometer (km) grids (10-km by 10-km grid cells) through stochastic calibration. Comparisons of Rhea-model simulations of winter precipitation with April 1 snowpack accumulations at 32 snowcourse stations were performed for the years 1972–1990. For most stations and most years the Rhea model reliably simulates the temporal and spatial variability in April 1 snowpack accumulations. However, in general, the Rhea-model underestimates April 1 snowpack accumulations in the Gunnison River basin area, and the underestimation is greatest for locations that receive the largest amount of snow. A significant portion of the error in Rhea-model simulations is due to the calibration of the Rhea model using gauge-catch precipitation measurements which can be as much as 50 percent below actual snowfall accumulations. Additional error in the Rhea-model simulations is a result of the comparison of gridded precipitation values to observed values measured at points.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.1998.tb05963.x
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    SPATIAL VARIABILITY IN WATER-BALANCE MODEL PERFORMANCE IN THE CONTERMINOUS UNITED STATES (2002)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Journal of the American Water Resources Association 38 (2002), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1752-1688
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: : A monthly water-balance (WB) model was tested in 44 river basins from diverse physiographic and climatic regions across the conterminous United States (U.S.). The WB model includes the concepts of climatic water supply and climatic water demand, seasonality in climatic water supply and demand, and soil-moisture storage. Exhaustive search techniques were employed to determine the optimal set of precipitation and temperature stations, and the optimal set of WB model parameters to use for each basin. It was found that the WB model worked best for basins with: (1) a mean elevation less than 450 meters or greater than 2000 meters, and/or (2) monthly runoff that is greater than 5 millimeters (mm) more than 80 percent of the time. In a separate analysis, a multiple linear regression (MLR) was computed using the adjusted R-square values obtained by comparing measured and estimated monthly runoff of the original 44 river basins as the dependent variable, and combinations of various independent variables [streamflow gauge latitude, longitude, and elevation; basin area, the long-term mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation; temperature and runoff; and low-flow statistics (i.e., the percentage of months with monthly runoff that is less than 5 mm)]. Results from the MLR study showed that the reliability of a WB model for application in a specific region can be estimated from mean basin elevation and the percentage of months with gauged runoff less than 5 mm. The MLR equations were subsequently used to estimate adjusted R-square values for 1,646 gauging stations across the conterminous U.S. Results of this study indicate that WB models can be used reliably to estimate monthly runoff in the eastern U.S., mountainous areas of the western U.S., and the Pacific Northwest. Applications of monthly WB models in the central U.S. can lead to uncertain estimates of runoff.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2002.tb01001.x
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Effects of climatic change and climatic variability on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the Delaware River basin (1992)
    Springer
    Climatic change 20 (1992), S. 143-153 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The Thornthwaite moisture index is useful as an indicator of the supply of water in an area relative to the demand under prevailing climatic conditions. This study examines the effects of long-term changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the Delaware River basin. Temperature and precipitation estimates for doubled-CO2 conditions derived from three general circulation models (GCMs) are used to study the response of the moisture index for steady-state doubled-CO2 conditions and for gradual changes from present to doubled-CO2 conditions. Results of the study indicate that temperature and precipitation under doubled-CO2 conditions will cause the Thornthwaite moisture index to decrease, implying significantly drier conditions in the Delaware River basin than currently exist. The amount of decrease depends, however, on the GCM climatic-change scenario used. The results also indicate that future changes in the moisture index will be partly masked by natural year-to-year variability in temperature and precipitation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00154172
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