ALBERT

Description: Ökoeffizienz ist die Grundlage eines zukunftsfähigen Managements, dessen Ziel es ist, Ökonomie und Ökologie zu vereinen. Ernst Ulrich von Weizsäcker und Jan-Dirk Seiler-Hausmann zeigen, daß diese Kombination den Unternehmen in Zukunft sogar mehr Gewinn bringen kann als herkömmliche Unternehmensführung.

Description: Statisticians avoid getting involved in data analysis, leaving data users on their own in interpreting the results of their work. This is particularly unfortunate in a new area of applied statistics such as environmental accounting with which few are really familiar. Earlier this year data producers and users explored, in a national seminar, possible policy applications of the results of a "green accounting" project in the Philippines. The main findings of the author's contribution to the seminar, on which the present paper is based, are that environmental accounts: (1) present evidence of sustainable economic performance in the country during the relatively short-time period of 1988–1994; (2) provide information for environmental cost internalization; (3) may guide investment to environmentally sound production processes; (4) help to specify and monitor policies of natural wealth conservation, distribution and management; and (5) reveal major data gaps. The paper concludes that environmental accounts help to assess the sustainability of economic growth in terms of broadly defined capital maintenance. The sustainability of development, however, would have to be measured by alternative or supplementary physical indicators linked to quantifiable standards or targets.

Description: The purpose of the chemistry component of the model comparison is to assess to what extent differences in the formulation of chemical processes explain the variance between model results. Observed concentrations of chemical compounds are used to estimate to what degree the various models represent realistic situations. For readability, the materials for the chemistry experiment are reported in three separate sections. This section discussed the data used to evaluate the models in their simulation of the source gases and the Nitrogen compounds (NO(y)) and Chlorine compounds (Cl(y)) species.

Description: Space-based and airborne coherent Doppler lidars designed for measuring global tropospheric wind profiles in cloud-free air rely on backscatter, beta from aerosols acting as passive wind tracers. Aerosol beta distribution in the vertical can vary over as much as 5-6 orders of magnitude. Thus, the design of a wave length-specific, space-borne or airborne lidar must account for the magnitude of 8 in the region or features of interest. The SPAce Readiness Coherent Lidar Experiment under development by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and scheduled for launch on the Space Shuttle in 2001, will demonstrate wind measurements from space using a solid-state 2 micrometer coherent Doppler lidar. Consequently, there is a critical need to understand variability of aerosol beta at 2.1 micrometers, to evaluate signal detection under varying aerosol loading conditions. Although few direct measurements of beta at 2.1 micrometers exist, extensive datasets, including climatologies in widely-separated locations, do exist for other wavelengths based on CO2 and Nd:YAG lidars. Datasets also exist for the associated microphysical and chemical properties. An example of a multi-parametric dataset is that of the NASA GLObal Backscatter Experiment (GLOBE) in 1990 in which aerosol chemistry and size distributions were measured concurrently with multi-wavelength lidar backscatter observations. More recently, continuous-wave (CW) lidar backscatter measurements at mid-infrared wavelengths have been made during the Multicenter Airborne Coherent Atmospheric Wind Sensor (MACAWS) experiment in 1995. Using Lorenz-Mie theory, these datasets have been used to develop a method to convert lidar backscatter to the 2.1 micrometer wavelength. This paper presents comparison of modeled backscatter at wavelengths for which backscatter measurements exist including converted beta (sub 2.1).

Description: Thunderstorms separate charge. Most places they lift positive charge or lower negative, a few places they lift negative or lower positive. The electrical generator is stronger in some parts of the cloud than in others. Our long term goal is to map this generator. Cloud physicists tell us that uncharged ice and water particles become charged by collision, and that the charge transferred depends on size, temperature and humidity. There is still some disagreement about exactly how the charge transferred depends on size, temperature, and humidity. In principle, if we knew this ice physics, and also knew the distribution of particles everywhere in the storm, and the winds everywhere and the temperature and humidity everywhere, then we could compute everywhere the electrical power of the thunderstorm generator. In practice it is difficult to know all these things, particularly the distribution of particles, so it is difficult to use real thunderstorms to falsify cloud electrification theories. We here take one small step towards computing that map of electrical generator power, by relating radar reflectivity profiles of 2000 storms to lightning flash rates of those storms. This small step by itself doesn't falsify any existing electrification theories; it merely places weak constraints on the relation of electric generator power to cloud ice.

Description: The typical fair weather electric field at the ground is between -100 and -300 V/m. At the NASA Kennedy Space Center and US Air Force Cape Canaveral Air Station (KSC) the electric field at the ground sometimes reaches -400 to -1200 V/m within an hour or two after sunrise on days that otherwise seem to be fair weather. We refer to the enhanced negative electric fields as the "sunrise enhancement." To investigate the sunrise enhancement at KSC we measured the electric field (E) in the first few hundred meters above the ground before and during several sunrise enhancements. From these E soundings we can infer the presence of charge layers and determine their thickness and charge density.

Description: Two primary detection techniques (optical and RF) have a proven capability for detecting lightning from low earth orbit. However, the lightning processes that generate the optical and RF signals are vastly different providing significantly different information content from each sensor type. Because of the intervening ionosphere, low frequency RF components do not reach satellite altitudes. As a consequence, many of the processes associated with the major energy release of a lightning event (i.e. return strokes, k-changes, recoil streamers, etc), in all likelihood contribute little to the RF signal arriving at the satellite. The optical output from lighting, on the other hand, has been shown to be highly correlated with the energetic, charge-transferring processes mentioned above. On the down side, the optical energy, while essentially unaffected by the atmosphere once it emerges from the cloud, is heavily scattered within the cloud. While there is little absorption by the cloud, the great optical depth makes the total light energy emerging from the cloud to be dependent on where in the cloud the lightning occurred. Analyses suggest that when lightning is confined to the lowest regions of the cloud, the light is strongly attenuated and detection becomes problematic. Fortunately, the vast majority of lightning flashes are comprised of channels that propagate through the middle of the cloud and higher. These flashes produce bright signals at the top of a cloud and are readily detectable. Presently, we have two optical instruments in orbit. The Optical Transient Detector (OTD) has been orbiting the earth since April, 1995, while the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) was launched on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) in November of 1997. Both instruments are relatively small, solid state optical imagers, designed specifically to detect and locate lightning activity from low earth orbit with high detection efficiency and location accuracy.

Description: For the past century, scientists have made quantitative measurements of lightning discharges. In the process, they refined the definition of a lightning unit, or basic quantum of lightning, in order to base it on observable parameters. In this paper, we will use cluster analysis to derive a basic spatial and temporal definition or scale length for the unit of lightning. We will use data from three different systems that detected pulses from the same storm complex over Central Oklahoma during June, 1998. Since the different instruments detect lightning in different ways with different resolutions, there may not be a single definition of the unit of lightning that can be applied to all three systems. However, common components can be found since all instrumentation are detecting aspects of the same phenomenon.

Description: Wind and water vapor are two major factors driving the Earth's atmospheric circulation, and direct measurement of these factors is needed for better understanding of basic atmospheric science, weather forecasting, and climate studies. Coherent lidar has proved to be a valuable tool for Doppler profiling of wind fields, and differential absorption lidar (DIAL) has shown its effectiveness in profiling water vapor. These two lidar techniques are generally considered distinctly different, but this paper explores an experimental combination of the Doppler and DIAL techniques for measuring both wind and water vapor with an eye-safe wavelength based on a solid-state laser material. Researchers have analyzed and demonstrated coherent DIAL water vapor measurements at 10 micrometers wavelength based on CO2 lasers. The hope of the research presented here is that the 2 gm wavelength in a holmium or thulium-based laser may offer smaller packaging and more rugged operation that the CO2-based approach. Researchers have extensively modeled 2 um coherent lasers for water vapor profiling, but no published demonstration is known. Studies have also been made, and results published on the Doppler portion, of a Nd:YAG-based coherent DIAL operating at 1.12 micrometers. Eye-safety of the 1.12 micrometer wavelength may be a concern, whereas the longer 2 micrometer and 10 micrometer systems allow a high level of eyesafety.

Description: Severe storms often have high flash rates (in excess of one flash per second) and are dominated by intracloud lightning activity. In addition to the extraordinary flash rates, there is a second distinguishing lightning characteristic of severe storms that seems to be important. When the total lightning history is examined, one finds sudden increases in the lightning rate, which we refer to as lightning "jumps," that precede the occurrence of severe weather by ten or more minutes. These jumps are typically 30-60 flashes/min, and are easily identified as anomalously large derivatives in the flash rate. This relationship is associated with updraft intensification and updraft strength is an important factor in storm severity (through the accumulation of condensate aloft and the stretching of vorticity). In several cases, evidence for diminishment of midlevel rotation and the descent of angular momentum from aloft is present prior to the appearance of the surface tornado. Based on our experience with severe and tornadic storms in Central Florida, we believe the total lightning may augment the more traditional use of NEXRAD radars and storm spotters. However, a more rigorous relation of these jumps to storm kinematics is needed if we are to apply total lightning in a decision tree that leads to improved warning lead times and decreased false alarm rates.

Description: The Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) is a NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) instrument on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) platform designed to acquire and investigate the distribution and variability of total lightning (i.e., cloud-to-ground and intracloud) between q35' in latitude. Since lightning is one of the responses of the atmosphere to thermodynamic and dynamic forcing, the LIS data is being used to detect deep convection without land-ocean bias, estimate the precipitation mass in the mixed phased region of thunderclouds, and differentiate storms with strong updrafts from those with weak vertical motion.

Description: The Optical Transient Detector (OTD) is a space-based instrument specifically designed to detect and locate lightning discharges (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) as it orbits the Earth. A statistical examination of OTD lightning data reveals that nearly 1.2 billion flashes occurred over the entire earth during the one year period from September 1995 through August 1996. This translates to an average of 37 lightning flashes occurring around the globe every second, which is well below the traditional estimate of 100 flashes per second. An average of 75% of the global lightning activity during the year occurs between 30' S and 30' N. An analysis of the annual lightning distribution reveals that an average of 82% of the lightning flashes occur over the continents and 18% over the oceans, which translates to an average land-ocean flash density ratio of nearly 11.

Description: The lightning frequency model developed by Baker, Christian and Latham (1995) has been refined and extended, in an effort to provide a more realistic framework from which to examine computationally the relationships that might exist between lightning frequency f (which is now being routinely measured from satellites, using NASA/MSFC devices) and a variety of cloud physical parameters, including precipitation rate, updraught speed and non-precipitating ice content. Model results indicate the existence of a simple relationship between lightning frequency f and the upward flux of ice crystals into the thunderstorm anvil. It follows that, for a particular situation, one can assign a specific mass of non-precipitating ice to an individual lightning stroke. Therefore it may prove possible - using satellite measurements of global lightning - to estimate the atmospheric loading of ice crystals in thunderstorm anvils: a parameter of climatological importance. Early results from this work are presented, together with further studies of the relationships between f and other thundercloud parameters.

Description: A charge transfer process during the collision of a riming graupel pellet and an ice-crystal at low temperature is proposed. During riming, the surface structure of graupel deviates from perfect crystalline structure. A concept of quasi-solid layer (QSL) formation on the surface is introduced. This QSL contains defects formed during riming. In absence of impurities, positively charged X-defect abundance is considered in the outer layer. These defects are assumed to be the charge carriers during the charge transfer process. Some part of the QSL is stripped off by the colliding ice crystals, which thereby gain some positive charge, leaving the graupel pellet negatively charged. With the proposed model, fC to pC of charge transfer is observed per collision. A transition temperature between -10 C to -15 C is also noted beyond which the QSL concept does not hold. This transition temperature is dependent on the bulk liquid water content of the cloud.

Description: It is well known that most tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall along the Gulf coast of the United States spawn at least a few tornadoes. Although most landfalling TCs generate fewer than a dozen such tornadoes, a small proportion produce large swarm outbreaks, with as many as 25 or more tornadoes. Usually, these major outbreaks occur in large, intense hurricane-strength TCs, but on 15-17 August 1994 Tropical Storm Beryl spun off 37 tornadoes along its path from the Florida panhandle through the mid-Atlantic states. Some 32 of these tornadoes occurred on 16 August 1994 from eastern Georgia to southern Virginia, with most of these taking place in South Carolina. Beryl's 37 tornadoes moved it into what was at that time fifth place historically in terms of TC tornado productivity. The Beryl outbreak is especially noteworthy in that at least three of the tornadoes achieved peak intensity of F3 on the Fujita damage intensity scale. Although no fatalities resulted from the Beryl outbreak, at least 50 persons suffered injuries, and property damages totalled more than $50 million . The Beryl outbreak is a good example of a TC whose greatest danger to the public is its post-landfall severe weather. In this respect, and in the character of its swarm outbreak of tornadoes, it resembles another large tornado outbreak spawned by a relatively weak TC, Hurricane Danny of 1985). In the Danny outbreak, numerous shallow mini-supercell storms were found to have occurred, and it was noted that, because of the storms' relatively shallow depth, cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning was negligible. Better observations of future TC tornado outbreaks, especially with modern surveillance tools such as Doppler radars and the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), were recommended. Although the Beryl tornado outbreak is not the first set of TC-spawned tornado storms to be observed with the NLDN, it is one of the largest and likely the most intense such outbreak. The purpose of this paper is to document the NLDN-derived CG lightning characteristics of Beryl's tornadic storms, and to see how they compare with observations of CG lightning activity in other types of severe storms. In particular, we attempt to quantify the CG flash rates of TC tornadic cells, and to discover if there are any characteristics of their CG activity that may be useful to operational forecasters seeking to distinguish which cells are most likely to produce severe weather.

Description: The problem of retrieving ligntning, ground-strike location on a spherical Earth surface using a network of 4 or more time-of-arrival (TOA) sensors is considered, It is shown that this problem has an analytic solution and therefore does not require the use of nonlinear estimation theory (e.g., minimization). The mathematical robustness of the analytic solution is tested using computer-generated lightning sources and simulated TOA measurement errors. A summary of a quasi-analytic extension of the spherical Earth solution to an oblate spheroid Earth geometry is also provided.

Description: This study summarizes the results of an analysis of data from the LIS instrument on the TRMM platform. The data for the Indian summer monsoon season is examined to study the seasonal patterns of the geographic and diurnal distribution of lightning storms. The storms on the Tibetan plateau show a single large diurnal peak at about 1400 local solar time. A region of Northern Pakistan has two storm peaks at 0200 and 1400 local solar time. The morning peak is half the magnitude of the afternoon peak. The region south of the Himalayan Mountains has a combined diurnal cycle in location and time of storm occurrence.

Description: We have developed a new set of eight electric field mills that were flown on a NASA ER-2 high-altitude aircraft. During the Third Convection And Moisture EXperiment (CAMEX-3; Fall, 1998), measurements of electric field, storm dynamics, and ice microphysics were made over several hurricanes. Concurrently, the TExas-FLorida UNderflights (TEFLUN) program was being conducted to make the same measurements over Gulf Coast thunderstorms. Sample measurements are shown: typical flight altitude is 20km. Our new mills have an internal 16-bit A/D, with a resolution of 0.25V/m per bit at high gain, with a noise level less than the least significant bit. A second, lower gain channel gives us the ability to measure fields as high as 150 kV/m.

Description: The mapping of the lightning optical pulses detected by the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) is compared with the radiation sources by Lightning Detection and Ranging (LDAR) and the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) for three thunderstorms observed during and overpasses on 15 August 1998. The comparison involves 122 flashes including 42 ground and 80 cloud flashes. For ground flash, the LIS recorded the subsequent strokes and changes inside the cloud. For cloud flashes, LIS recorded those with higher sources in altitude and larger number of sources. The discrepancies between the LIS and LDAR flash locations are about 4.3 km for cloud flashes and 12.2 km for ground flashes. The reason for these differences remain a mystery.

Description: Since April 1995, lightning activity around the globe has been monitored with the Optical Transient Detector (OTD). The OTD observations acquired during the one year period from September 1995 through August 1996 have been used to statistically determine the number of flashes that occur over the Earth during each hour of the diurnal cycle, expressed both as a function of local time and universal time. The globally averaged local [il,htnina activity displays a peak in late afternoon (1500-1800 local time) and a minimum in the morning hours (0600- 1000 local time) consistent with convection associated with diurnal heating. No diurnal variation is found for oceanic storms. The diurnal lightning distribution (universal time) for the globe displays a variation of about 35% about its mean as compared to the Carnegie curve which has a variation of only 15% above and below the mean.

Description: Total lightning observations made by the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) of a tornadic thunderstorm that occurred over Oklahoma on 17 April 1995 are presented. The average flash rate of the tornadic storm during the 3.2 min observation period was 45 flashes/min, with a flash rate density of 1.16 x 10(exp -4)/s sq km. The total flash rate was almost 18 times higher than the cloud-to-ground rate measured by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). In addition, total lightning rates were observed to decrease prior to tornadic development.

Description: In recent years, atmospheric conductivity and electric field measurements over thunderstorms have been made at 20 km with a high altitude aircraft. After compensating for the effects of aircraft charging induced by external electric fields no significant variations in ambient conductivity above thunderstorms have been found. These Gerdien results contrast strongly with the large (and frequent) conductivity variations reported in studies using relaxation probe techniques.

Description: The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate anomaly responsible for world-wide weather impacts ranging from droughts to floods. In the United States, warm episode years are known to produce above normal rainfall along the Southeast US Gulf Coast and into the Gulf of Mexico, with the greatest response observed in the October-March period of the current warm-episode year. The 1997-98 warm episode, notable for being the strongest event since 1982-83, presents our first opportunity to examine the response to a major ENSO event and determine the variation of wintertime thunderstorm activity in this part of the world. Due to the recent launch of a lightning sensor on NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) in November 1997 and the expanded coverage of the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), we are able to examine such year-to-year changes in lightning activity with far greater detail than ever before.

Description: This section contains a number of special diagnostics that are designed to examine certain mechanisms. Section 1 reports on the method used to test the photochemical partitioning in the models. Sections 2 and 3 represent efforts to examine the model calculated production and removal rates for ozone and how the values are combined with transport rates in the models to produce the simulated ozone distributions. Sections 4 and 5 concentrate on polar processes including the dynamics aspect of vortex confinement and the chemical aspects of chlorine activation.

Description: MM II defined a series of experiments to better understand and characterize model transport and to assess the realism of this transport by comparison to observations. Measurements from aircraft, balloon, and satellite, not yet available at the time of MM I [Prather and Remsberg, 1993], provide new and stringent constraints on model transport, and address the limits of our transport modeling abilities. Simulations of the idealized tracers the age spectrum, and propagating boundary conditions, and conserved HSCT-like emissions probe the relative roles of different model transport mechanisms, while simulations of SF6 and C02 make the connection to observations. Some of the tracers are related, and transport diagnostics such as the mean age can be derived from more than one of the experiments for comparison to observations. The goals of the transport experiments are: (1) To isolate the effects of transport in models from other processes; (2) To assess model transport for realistic tracers (such as SF6 and C02) for comparison to observations; (3) To use certain idealized tracers to isolate model mechanisms and relationships to atmospheric chemical perturbations; (4) To identify strengths and weaknesses of the treatment of transport processes in the models; (5) To relate evaluated shortcomings to aspects of model formulation. The following section are included:Executive Summary, Introduction, Age Spectrum, Observation, Tropical Transport in Models, Global Mean Age in Models, Source-Transport Covariance, HSCT "ANOY" Tracer Distributions, and Summary and Conclusions.

Description: A global lightning model that includes diurnal and annual lightning variation, and total flash density versus latitude for each major land and ocean, has been used as the basis for simulating the global electric circuit charging rate. A particular objective has been to reconcile the difference in amplitude ratios [AR=(max-min)/mean] between global lightning diurnal variation (AR approx. = 0.8) and the diurnal variation of typical atmospheric potential gradient curves (AR approx. = 0.35). A constraint on the simulation is that the annual mean charging current should be about 1000 A. The global lightning model shows that negative ground flashes can contribute, at most, about 10-15% of the required current. For the purpose of the charging rate simulation, it was assumed that each ground flash contributes 5 C to the charging process. It was necessary to assume that all electrified clouds contribute to charging by means other than lightning, that the total flash rate can serve as an indirect indicator of the rate of charge transfer, and that oceanic electrified clouds contribute to charging even though they are relatively inefficient in producing lightning. It was also found necessary to add a diurnally invariant charging current component. By trial and error it was found that charging rate diurnal variation curves in Universal time (UT) could be produced with amplitude ratios and general shapes similar to those of the potential gradient diurnal variation curves measured over ocean and arctic regions during voyages of the Carnegie Institute research vessels.

Description: The primary constituents of the Earth's atmosphere are molecular nitrogen and molecular oxygen. Ozone is created when ultraviolet light from the sun photodissociates molecular oxygen into two oxygen atoms. The oxygen atoms undergo many collisions but eventually combine with a molecular oxygen to form ozone (O3). The ozone molecules absorb ultraviolet solar radiation, primarily in the wavelength region between 200 and 300 nanometers, resulting in the dissociation of ozone back into atomic oxygen and molecular oxygen. The oxygen atom reattaches to an O2 molecule, reforming ozone which can then absorb another ultraviolet photon. This sequence goes back and forth between atomic oxygen and ozone, each time absorbing a uv photon, until the oxygen atom collides with and ozone molecule to reform two oxygen molecules.

Description: In winter, active convective clouds frequently form along the coastline of the Hokuriku district, in association with strong advection of Siberian air masses over the Sea of Japan. On the other hand, in summer, many thunderclouds form in the Kanto region in the afternoon every day. Summer and winter thunderclouds were investigated by field works, operation of the C- and X-band weather radars and a car-borne fieldmill. The investigation found a very close relation between the temporal variation of 3-dimensional radar echo and surface electric field magnitude detected by a car-borne fieldmill in the case of summer thunderclouds and winter convective clouds or thunderclouds. The study probed the close relation among radar echoes, quantity of thunderclouds and surface electric field magnitude in the summer and winter seasons. We think that summer thundercloud activity can basically be equated with winter thundercloud lightning activity, except that the magnitude of surface electric field under summer thunderclouds in the case of the Kanto region cannot be equated with that under winter thunderclouds in the case of the Hokuriku district in winter.

Description: A six year record of optical observations of lightning-induced mesospheric transient luminous events (TLEs) is available from the Yucca Ridge Field Station (YRFS) near Ft. Collins, CO. Climatological analyses reveal sprites and elves occur in a variety of convective storm types, but principally mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and squall lines. Severe supercell storms rarely produce TLEs, except during their dissipating stage. Few TLEs are observed during storms with radar echo areas 〈7,500 sq km. Above this size there is a modest correlation with radar areal coverage. A typical High Plains storm produces 45 TLEs over a 143 interval. Sprites and most elves are associated with +CGs. The probability of a TLE increases with peak current. In six storms, 5.1% of +CGs produced TLEs, the number increasing to 32% of +CGs with 〉75 kA and 52% of +CGs with 〉100 kA peak current.

Description: Significant differences are known to exist on a global scale between continental and oceanic total lightning regional flash rates, suggesting differences in the properties of convective storms in these regimes. Lightning properties observed by the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) over land and ocean are compared, limited to analysis over the tropics in order to simplify physical interpretation. We find that the mean flash rates of individual storms over tropical land only exceed those over ocean by a factor of 2 (far less than the observed differences in regional flash rates). However, the average nearest neighbor distance of continental thunderstorms is half that over oceans. Cloud-top lightning optical radiance in oceanic storms is also twice as large as over land, suggesting either more energetic flashes over the oceans or less intervening cloud particles.

Description: The danger of natural and triggered lightning significantly impacts space launch operations supported by the USAF. The lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) are used by the USAF to avoid these lightning threats to space launches. This paper presents a brief overview of the LCC.

Description: Charged aerosol clouds allow to create strong electric fields which generate discharges. A character of appearance and development of the discharges is similar to thundercloud processes. That is why the charged aerosol clouds are used for experiments on studying of discharges in air. Experimental data on electromagnetic fields investigation produced by discharges between charged cloud and ground are considered.

Description: In 1996-1997 an experiment with super dwarf wheat (Greenhouse-2) was made aboard the orbital complex MIR as a part of the MIR-NASA space science program. The article deals with the main production and morphometric characteristics of plants that completed their vegetation cycle in the space flight. Lengths of the whole cycle of vegetation and its individual stages were essentially same as in ground control experiments. Dry mass of one plants equal, the number of headed shoots was in 2.7 times less in the flight harvest as compared with the control. The height of shoots was reduced by one half. No seeds were found in the heads formed in space. The architecture of heads was substantially different from what had been observed in the preceeding ground control experiments: mass of the heads was halved and lengths of inflorescence and palea awn shortened. The number of spikelets in a head reduced up to 8-10 vs. 13-14 in the controls, whereas the number of florets per a spikelet averaged 5 vs. 3 in the controls. The experiments showed that mainly the most profound changes in the productive and morphometric parameters of the super dwarf wheat plants were largely caused by the phytotoxic effects of ethylene rather than spaceflight specific factors as its concentrations in the MIR air amount to 0.3-1.8 mg/m3.

Description: Data from both 27 sites in the Atlanta mesonet surface meteorological network and eight National Weather Service sites were analyzed for the period from 26 July to 3 August 1996. Analysis of the six precipitation events over the city during the period (each on a different day) showed that its urban heat island (UHI) induced a convergence zone that initiated three of the storms at different times of the day, i.e., 0630,0845, and 1445 EDT. Previous analysis has shown that New York City (NYC) effects summer daytime thunderstorm formation and/or movement. That study found that during nearly calm regional flow conditions the NYC UHI initiates convective activity. Moving thunderstorms, however, tended to bifurcate and to move around the city, due to its building barrier effect. The current Atlanta results thus agree with the NYC results with respect to thunderstorm initiation.

Description: Estimates of the effect of pulse stretching on satellite laser altimetry in particular the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS), by cloud multiple scattering were made from an analytical method and from Monte Carlo calculations. The path delay of the return pulse was found to be largest for low-level clouds with particle radii (3-20 microns). The magnitude of the path delay was affected by several factors including cloud height, cloud optical depth, cloud particle size, particle shape, and receiver field of view. Polar aerosol and Rayleigh scattering usually added less than 1 cm to the overall path delay. Path delay estimates for all cloud conditions would be less if a simple Gaussian fit of the return pulse peak were used to measure the pulse's centroid. However, care must be taken in determining the centroid as factors such as pulse width, surface slope and the fitting method used will affect the estimate. A planned application for laser altimetry is high precision monitoring of the height change of polar ice sheets. In the absence of a correction algorithm, the required GLAS altimetry accuracies will not be achieved unless atmospheric channel information is used to remove profiles that are likely to be heavily contaminated by multiple scattering.

Description: The zonal mean eddy heat flux is directly proportional to the wave activity that propagates from the troposphere into the stratosphere. This quantity is a simple eddy diagnostic which is easily calculated from conventional meteorological analyses. Because this "wave driving" of the stratosphere has a strong impact on the stratospheric temperature, it is necessary to compare the impact of the flux with respect to stratospheric radiative changes caused by greenhouse gas changes. Hence, we must understand the precision and accuracy of the heat flux derived from our global meteorological analyses. Herein, we quantify the stratospheric heat flux using five different meteorological analyses, and show that there are 30% differences between these analyses during the disturbed conditions of the northern hemisphere winter. Such large differences result from the planetary differences in the stationary temperature and meridional wind fields. In contrast, planetary transient waves show excellent agreement amongst these five analyses, and this transient heat flux appears to have a long term downward trend.

Description: An analysis of nadir reflectivity Fourier spatial power spectra and autocorrelation functions at solar wavelengths and for cloudy conditions has been carried out. The data come from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) observations, while Monte Carlo (MC) simulations are used to aid the interpretation of the Landsat results. We show that radiative processes produce consistent signatures on power spectra and autocorrelation functions. The former take a variety of forms not shown or explained in previous observational studies. We demonstrate that the TM spectra can potentially be affected by both radiative "roughening" at intermediate scales (approx. 1 -5 km), being more prevalent at large solar zenith angles, and the already documented radiative "smoothing" at small scales (less than 1 km). These processes are wavelength dependent, as shown by systematic differences between conservative (for cloud droplets) TM band 4 (approx. 0.8 microns) and absorbing band 7 (approx. 2.2 microns): band 7 exhibits more roughening and less smoothing. This is confirmed quantitatively by comparing least-squared fitted power spectral slopes for the two bands. It is also corroborated by a slower decrease with distance of autocorrelation function values for band 4 compared to band 7. The appearance of roughening at large solar zenith angles is a result of side illumination and shadowing and adds an additional complexity to the power spectra. MC spectra are useful in illustrating that scale invariant optical depth fields can produce complex power spectra that take a variety of shapes under different conditions. We show that radiative roughening increases with the decrease of single scattering albedo and with the increase of solar zenith angle (as in the observations). For high Sun there is also a clear shift of the radiative smoothing scale to smaller values as droplet absorption increases. The shape of the power spectrum is sensitive to the magnitude and type of cloud top height variability, with the spectral signatures of decorrelation between reflectance and optical depth at large scales becoming stronger as the magnitude of cloud top variations increase. Finally, the usefulness of power spectral analysis in evaluating the skill of novel optical depth retrieval techniques in removing 3D radiative effects is demonstrated. New techniques using inverse Non-local Independent Pixel Approximation (NIPA) and Normalized Difference of Nadir Reflectivity (NDNR) yield optical depth fields which better match the scale-by-scale variability of the true optical depth field.

Description: We examine concurrent upper tropospheric measurements of CN (diameter greater than 4 nm). NO, and NO(Y) during the SONEX Experiment over the North Atlantic (Oct.-Nov., 1997). Elevated CN and NO(Y) concentrations observed in the upper troposphere are attributed largely to enhancements in convective outflows. We estimate that less than 7% of observed high-CN plumes (greater than 10000 /cc) may be attributed to aircraft emissions. Dilution of high-CN convective and aircraft plumes appears to be much more rapid than losses of NO(X) and CN by oxidation and coagulation, respectively, and accounts for much of observed CN concentrations. When taking into account of different time scales against dilution for observable aircraft and convective high-CN plumes (estimated to be 1:4), the contribution by aircraft emissions to CN concentrations is significant, about 20% of the convective source. We find no evidence that particle formation in convective plumes is limited by OH oxidation of SO2.

Description: A new technique for measuring cloud liquid water, mean droplet radius and droplet number density is outlined. The technique is based on simultaneously measuring Raman and Mie scattering from cloud liquid droplets using a Raman lidar. Laboratory experiments on liquid micro-spheres have shown that the intensity of Raman scattering is proportional to the amount of liquid present in the spheres. This fact is used as a constraint on calculated Mie intensity assuming a gamma function particle size distribution. The resulting retrieval technique is shown to give stable solutions with no false minima. It is tested using Raman lidar data where the liquid water signal was seen as an enhancement to the water vapor signal. The general relationship of retrieved average radius and number density is consistent with traditional cloud physics models. Sensitivity to the assumed maximum cloud liquid water amount and the water vapor mixing ratio calibration are tested. Improvements to the technique are suggested.

Description: This study examines a unique data set returned by IMP8 and Geotail on January 29, 1995 during a substorm which resulted in the ejection of a plasmoid. The two spacecraft (s/c) were situated in the north lobe of the tail and both observed a traveling compression region (TCR). From single s/c observations only the length of the plasmoid in X and an estimate of its height in Z can be determined. However, we show that dual s/c measurements of TCRs can be used to model all three dimensions of the underlying plasmoid and to estimate of its rate of expansion or contraction. For this event plasmoid dimensions of Delta(X) approximates 18, Delta(Y) approximates 30, and Delta(Z) approximates 10 R(sub e) are inferred from the IMP8 and Geotail lobe magnetic field measurements. The earthward end of the plasmoid was inferred to be near the mean location of the near-earth neutral line, X approximates -26 R(sub e). Its center was underneath IMP 8 at X approximates -34 R(sub e) and its tailward end appeared to be near X approximates -44 R(sub e). Furthermore, a factor of approximately 2 increase in the amplitude of the TCR occurred in the 1.5 min it took to move from IMP 8 to Geotail. Modeled using conservation of the magnetic flux, this increase in lobe compression implies that the underlying plasmoid was expanding at a rate of approximately 140 km/s. Such an expansion is comparable to recently reported V(sub y) speeds in "young" plasmoids in this region of the tail. Finally, the Geotail measurements indicate that a reconfiguration of the lobe magnetic field closely followed the ejection of the plasmoid which moved magnetic flux tubes into the wake behind the plasmoid where they would convect into the near-earth neutral line and reconnect.

Description: Prior to 1991, major warmings (defined by increasing zonal mean temperatures and zonal mean easterly winds from 60degN to the pole at 10 hPa) typically occurred approximately once every two Arctic winters; a major warming in mid-Dec. 1998 was the first since Feb. 1991. The Dec. 1998 warming was also the second earliest on record. The earliest, and the only other major warming on record before the end of Dec. was in early Dec 1987; prior to that, the earliest was in late Dec./early Jan. 1984-85. The 1984-85 and 1987 warmings resulted in the warmest and weakest lower stratospheric polar vortices in the 20 years before 1998-99. Fig. 1 compares temperatures and vortex strength in 1998-99 with those in the previous 20 years, using the US National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) record; 1987-88 and 1984-85 are also highlighted. The Dec. 1998 warming had a more pronounced effect on mid-stratospheric temperatures than the Dec. 1987 warming (Fig. 1a), although smaller than that of warmings later in winter (e.g., 1984-85). 10-hPa temperatures fell well below average again in late Jan. 1999 and remained unusually low until an early final warming began in late Feb. 840 K PV gradients (Fig. 1c) set a record minimum in Jan. 1999, but were near average in Feb before the final warming. The effect of the Dec. 1998 warming on lower stratospheric temperatures was comparable to that of other major warmings; there was a brief period of record-high minimum 46-hPa temperatures in early Jan 1999 (Fig. 1b), and temperatures then fell to near average for a short period in mid-Feb. Lower stratospheric PV gradients were the weakest on record during the 1998-99 winter (Fig. 1d). The evolution of the vortex and minimum temperatures during 1998-99 was remarkably similar to that during 1987-88, the only previous year when a major warming was observed before the end of Dec.

Description: Given the substantial radiative effects of cirrus clouds and the need to validate cirrus cloud mass in climate models, it is important to measure the global distribution of cirrus properties with satellite remote sensing. Existing cirrus remote sensing techniques, such as solar reflectance methods, measure cirrus ice water path (IWP) rather indirectly and with limited accuracy. Submillimeter/wave radiometry is an independent method of cirrus remote sensing based on ice particles scattering the upwelling radiance emitted by the lower atmosphere. A new aircraft instrument, the Far Infrared Sensor for Cirrus (FIRSC), is described. The FIRSC employs a Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS). which measures the upwelling radiance across the whole submillimeter region (0.1 1.0-mm wavelength). This wide spectral coverage gives high sensitivity to most cirrus particle sizes and allows accurate determination of the characteristic particle size. Radiative transfer modeling is performed to analyze the capabilities of the submillimeter FTS technique. A linear inversion analysis is done to show that cirrus IWP, particle size, and upper-tropospheric temperature and water vapor may be accurately measured, A nonlinear statistical algorithm is developed using a database of 20000 spectra simulated by randomly varying most relevant cirrus and atmospheric parameters. An empirical orthogonal function analysis reduces the 500-point spectrum (20 - 70/cm) to 15 "pseudo-channels" that are then input to a neural network to retrieve cirrus IWP and median particle diameter. A Monte Carlo accuracy study is performed with simulated spectra having realistic noise. The retrieval errors are low for IWP (rms less than a factor of 1.5) and for particle sizes (rins less than 30%) for IWP greater than 5 g/sq m and a wide range of median particle sizes. This detailed modeling indicates that there is good potential to accurately measure cirrus properties with a submillimeter FTS.

Description: Two different methods for retrieving Upper Tropospheric Humidities (UTH) from the TOVS (TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder) instruments aboard NOAA polar orbiting satellites are presented and compared. The first one, from the Environmental Technology Laboratory, computed by J. Bates and D. Jackson (hereafter BJ method), estimates UTH from a simplified radiative transfer analysis of the upper tropospheric infrared water vapor channel at wavelength measured by HIRS (6.3 micrometer). The second one results from a neural network analysis of the TOVS (HIRS and MSU) data developed at, the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (hereafter the 3I (Improved Initialization Inversion) method). Although the two methods give very similar retrievals in temperate regions (30-60 N and S), an absolute bias up to 16% appears in the convective zone of the tropics. The two datasets have also been compared with UTH retrievals from infrared radiance measurements in the 6.3 micrometer channel from the geostationary satellite METEOSAT (hereafter MET method). The METEOSAT retrievals are systematically drier than the TOVS-based results by an absolute bias between 5 and 25%. Despite the biases, the spatial and temporal correlations are very good. The purpose of this study is to explain the deviations observed between the three datasets. The sensitivity of UTH to air temperature and humidity profiles is analysed as are the clouds effects. Overall, the comparison of the three retrievals gives an assessment of the current uncertainties in water vapor amounts in the upper troposphere as determined from NOAA and METEOSAT satellites.

Description: Recognizing the importance of rain in the tropics and the accompanying latent heat release, NASA for the U.S. and NASDA for Japan have partnered in the design, construction and flight of an Earth Probe satellite to measure tropical rainfall and calculate the associated heating. Primary mission goals are: 1) the understanding of crucial links in climate variability by the hydrological cycle, 2) improvement in the large-scale models of weather and climate, and 3) improvement in understanding cloud ensembles and their impacts on larger scale circulations. The linkage with the tropical oceans and landmasses are also emphasized. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was launched in November 1997 with fuel enough to obtain a four to five year data set of rainfall over the global tropics from 37 deg N to 37 deg S. This paper reports progress from launch date through the spring of 1999. The data system and its products and their access is described, as are the algorithms used to obtain the data. Some exciting early results from TRMM are described. Some important algorithm improvements are shown. These will be used in the first total data reprocessing, scheduled to be complete in early 2000. The reader is given information on how to access and use the data.

Description: The distribution and intensity of total (i.e., combined stratified and convective processes) rainrate/latent heat release (LHR) were derived for tropical cyclone Paka during the period 9-21 December, 1997 from the F-10, F-11, F-13, and F-14 Defense Meteorological Satellite Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and the Tropical Rain Measurement Mission Microwave Imager observations. These observations were frequent enough to capture three episodes of inner core convective bursts that preceded periods of rapid intensification and a convective rainband (CRB) cycle. During these periods of convective bursts, satellite sensors revealed that the rainrates/LHR: 1) increased within the inner eye wall region; 2) were mainly convectively generated (nearly a 65% contribution), 3) propagated inwards; 4) extended upwards within the middle and upper-troposphere, and 5) became electrically charged. These factors may have caused the eye wall region to become more buoyant within the middle and upper-troposphere, creating greater cyclonic angular momentum, and, thereby, warming the center and intensifying the system. Radiosonde measurements from Kwajalein Atoll and Guam, sea surface temperature observations, and the European Center for Medium Range Forecast analyses were used to examine the necessary and sufficient condition for initiating and maintaining these inner core convective bursts. For example, the necessary conditions such as the atmospheric thermodynamics (i.e., cold tropopause temperatures, moist troposphere, and warm SSTs [greater than 26 deg]) suggested that the atmosphere was ideal for Paka's maximum potential intensity (MPI) to approach super-typhoon strength. Further, Paka encountered weak vertical wind shear (less than 15 m/s ) before interacting with the westerlies on 21 December. The sufficient conditions, on the other hand, appeared to have some influence on Paka's convective burst, but the horizontal moisture flux convergence values in the outer core were weaker than some of the previously examined tropical cyclones. Also, the upper tropospheric outflow generation of eddy relative angular momentum flux convergence was 4D much less than that found during moderate tropical cyclone/trough interaction. These results indicated how important the external necessary condition and the internal forcing (i.e., CRB cycle) were in generating Paka's convective bursts as compared to the external sufficient forcing mechanisms found in higher latitude tropical cyclones. Later, as Paka began to interact with the westerlies, both the necessary (i.e., strong vertical shear and colder SSTs) and sufficient (i.e., dry air intrusion) external forcing mechanisms helped to decrease Paka's rainrate.

Description: Carbonados are porous polycrystalline (with crystal sizes up to 100 micrometer) diamonds. Carbonado is found only in alluvial deposits in Bahia, Brazil and in the Central African Republic (CAR). Alluvial deposit host is 1.5 Ga while the carbonados are between 2.6 - 3.8 Ga. The process of fusing the carbonado microcrystals together is not fully understood, partly due to fact that the origin of these carbonado, is not known. Several modes of origins are proposed for carbonado. First, a crustal origin. Carbonados have a light carbon and helium isotopic signature. They contain an enrichment of the rare-earth elements (REE). Carbonados have tightly trapped atmospheric noble gases and contain an evidence of high He content despite the carbonado expected depletion of He at mantle temperatures. Carbonados have high porosity incompatible with high pressure mantle conditions. Second, a mantle origin is proposed based on similar REE pattern to kimberlites. The presence of nitrogen platelet (by IR spectra) indicates high temperature origin and syngenetic inclusions of rutile, ilmenite, and magnetite indicates high pressure and high temperature conditions consistent with mantle origin as well. Third, it is proposed that carbonado diamonds are a result of early impacts into crustal rocks. This is indicated by the rare and controversial occurrence of high pressure diamond polymorph, londsdaleite, frequently found in diamonds from meteorite impact sites, and by observation of planar deformation features, possibly indicating shock events. Finally, it is suggested that carbonados have an extraterrestrial origin, as indicated by a long term annealing based on observation of a zero-phonon line, attributed to paired nitrogen atoms in association with a vacancy.

Description: As established in previous studies, and analyzed further herein for the years 1988-1998, warm advection from the North Atlantic is the predominant control of the surface-air temperature in northern-latitude Europe in late winter. This thesis is supported by the substantial correlation Cti between the speed of the southwesterly surface winds over the eastern North Atlantic, as quantified by a specific Index Ina, and the 2-meter level temperature Ts over central Europe (48-54 deg N; 5-25 deg E), for January, February and early March. In mid-March and subsequently, the correlation Cti drops drastically (quite often it is negative). The change in the relationship between Ts and Ina marks a transition in the control of the surface-air temperature. As (a) the sun rises higher in the sky, (b) the snows melt (the surface absorptivity can increase by a factor of 3.0), (c) the ocean-surface winds weaken, and (d) the temperature difference between land and ocean (which we analyze) becomes small, absorption of insolation replaces the warm advection as the dominant control of the continental temperature. We define the onset of spring by this transition, which evaluated for the period of our study occurs at pentad 16 (Julian Date 76, that is, March 16). The control by insolation means that the surface is cooler under cloudy conditions than under clear skies. This control produces a much smaller interannual variability of the surface temperature and of the lapse rate than prevailing in winter, when the control is by advection. Regional climatic data would be of greatest value for agriculture and forestry if compiled for well-defined seasons. For continental northern latitudes, analysis presented here of factors controlling the surface temperature appears an appropriate tool for this task.

Description: Cloud optical thickness and effective radius retrievals from solar reflectance measurements are traditionally implemented using a combination of spectral channels that are absorbing and non-absorbing for water particles. Reflectances in non-absorbing channels (e.g., 0.67, 0.86, 1.2 micron spectral window bands) are largely dependent on cloud optical thickness, while longer wavelength absorbing channels (1.6, 2. 1, and 3.7 micron window bands) provide cloud particle size information. Cloud retrievals over ice and snow surfaces present serious difficulties. At the shorter wavelengths, ice is bright and highly variable, both characteristics acting to significantly increase cloud retrieval uncertainty. In contrast, reflectances at the longer wavelengths are relatively small and may be comparable to that of dark open water. A modification to the traditional cloud retrieval technique is devised. The new algorithm uses only a combination of absorbing spectral channels for which the snow/ice albedo is relatively small. Using this approach, retrievals have been made with the MODIS Airborne Simulator (MAS) imager flown aboard the NASA ER-2 from May - June 1998 during the Arctic FIRE-ACE field deployment. Data from several coordinated ER-2 and University of Washington CV-580 in situ aircraft observations of liquid water stratus clouds are examined. MAS retrievals of optical thickness, droplet effective radius, and liquid water path are shown to be in good agreement with the in situ measurements. The initial success of the technique has implications for future operational satellite cloud retrieval algorithms in polar and wintertime regions.

Description: Vertical electron-density (N (sub e)) profiles, deduced from newly-available ISIS-II digital ionospheric topside-sounder data, are used to investigate the "polar-hole" region within the winter, nighttime polar cap ionosphere during solar minimum. The hole region is located around 0200 MLT near the poleward side of the auroral oval. Earlier investigations had revealed very low N (sub e) values in this region (down to 200/cu cm near 300 km). In the present study, such low N, values (approx. 100/cu cm) were only found near the ISIS (International Satellite for Ionospheric Study)-II altitude of 1400 km. The peak ionospheric concentration below the spacecraft remained fairly constant (approx. 10 (exp 5)/cu cm across the hole region but the altitude of the peak dropped dramatically. This peak dropped, surprisingly, to the vicinity of 100 km. These observations suggest that the earlier satellite in situ measurements, interpreted as deep holes in the ionospheric F-region concentration, could have been made during conditions of an extreme decrease in the altitude of the ionospheric N (sub e) peak. The observations, in combination with other data, indicate that the absence of an F-layer peak may be a frequent occurrence at high latitudes.

Description: Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer brightness temperature data in the 85 GHz channel (T85) reveal distinct local minima (T85min) in a regional map containing a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS). This is because of relatively small footprint size (approximately 5.5 km) and strong extinction properties in this channel of the TMI. A map of surface rain rate for that region, deduced from simultaneous measurements made by the Precipitation Radar (PR) on board the TRMM satellite, reveals that these T85(sub min), produced by scattering, correspond to local PR rain maxima. Utilizing the PR rain rate map as a guide, we infer empirically from TMI data the presence of three different kinds of thunderstorms or Cbs. These Cbs are classified as young, mature, and decaying types, and are assumed to have a scale of about 20 km on the average. Two parameters are used to classify these three kinds of Cbs based on the T85 data: a) the magnitude of scattering depression deduced from local T85(sub min) and b) the mean horizontal gradient of T85 around such minima. Knowing the category of a given Cb, we can estimate the rain rate associated with it. Such estimation is done with the help of relationships linking T85min to rain rate in each Cb type. Similarly, a weak background rain rate in all the areas where T85 is less than 260 K is deduced with another relationship linking T85 to rain rate. In our rain retrieval model, this background rain constitutes stratiform rain where the Cbs are absent. Initially, these relationships are optimized or tuned utilizing the PR and TMI data of a few MCS events. After such tuning, the model is applied to independent MCS cases. The areal distribution of light (1-10 mm/hr), moderate (10-20 mm/hr), and intense (〉= 20 mm/hr) rain rates are retrieved satisfactorily. Accuracy in the estimates of the light, moderate, and intense rain areas and the mean rain rates associated with such areas in these independent MCS cases is on the average about 15 %. Taking advantage of this ability of our retrieval method, one could derive the latent heat input into the atmosphere over the 760 km wide swath of the TMI radiometer in the tropics.

Description: We have examined the sea level height tide records at seven tide gauge sites in the region of southcentral Alaska that were affected by the 1964 Prince William Sound earthquake to determine the history of crustal uplift subsequent to the earthquake. There is considerable variation in the behavior depending on the location of the site relative to the 1964 rupture. At Seward, on the eastern side of the Kenai Peninsula we find a slow uplift that is consistent with elastic strain accumulation while at Seldovia and Nikiski on the western side of the Kenai we find a persistent rapid uplift of about 1 cm/yr that most likely represents a long term transient response to the earthquake, but which cannot be sustained over the expected recurrence interval for a great earthquake of several hundred years. Further to the southwest, at Kodiak, we find evidence that the rate of uplift, which is still several mm/yr, has slowed significantly over the past three and a half decades. To the east of the Kenai Peninsula we find subsidence at Cordova and an uncertain behavior at Valdez. At both of these sites there is a mathematically significant time-dependence to the uplift behavior, but the data confirming this time dependence are not as convincing as at Kodiak. At Anchorage, to the north there is little evidence of vertical motion since the earthquake. We compare these long term tide gauge records to recent GPS observations. In general there is reasonable consistency except at Anchorage and Cordova where the GPS measurement indicate somewhat more rapid uplift and subsidence, respectively.

Description: The geographic limits of the South Atlantic Anomaly, as defined by radiation damage, are compared to contours of geomagnetic total field intensity, as defined by the 1995 IGRF, for the present and recent past. The most likely secular variation of the geomagnetic field is estimated and used to extrapolate the geomagnetic field to the year 2100. This indicates that radiation damage to spacecraft and humans in space will likely increase and to cover a much larger geographic area.

Description: The 1997-99 ENSO (El nino Southern Oscillation) cycle was very powerful, but also well observed. The best satellite rainfall estimates combined with gauge observations allow for a global analysis of precipitation anomalies accompanying the 1997-98 El Nino and initiation of the 1998-99 La Nina. For the period April 1997 to March 1998 the central to eastern Pacific, southeastern and western U.S., Argentina, eastern Africa, South China, eastern Russia, and North Atlantic were all more than two standard deviations wetter than normal. During the same year the Maritime Continent, eastern Indian Ocean, subtropical North Pacific, northeastern South America, and much of the mid- latitude southern oceans were more than two standard deviations drier than normal. An analysis of the evolution of the El Nino and accompanying precipitation anomalies revealed that a dry Maritime Continent led the formation of the El Nino SST (Sea Surface Temperature), while in the central Pacific, precipitation anomalies lagged the El Nino SST by a season. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina occurred in May 1998, but as early as October-November 1997 precipitation indices captured precursor changes in Pacific rainfall anomalies. Differences were found between observed and modeled [NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis] precipitation anomalies for 1997 and 98. In particular, the model had a bias towards positive precipitation anomalies and the magnitudes of the anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were small compared to the observations. Also, the evolution of the precipitation field, including the drying of the Maritime Continent and eastward progression of rainfall in the equatorial Pacific, was less pronounced for the model compared to the observations. One degree daily estimates of rainfall show clearly the MaddenJulian Oscillation and related westerly wind burst events over the Maritime Continent, which are key indicators for the onset of El Nino.

Description: In this paper, TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Satellite) Precipitation Radar (PR) products are evaluated by means of simultaneous comparisons with data from the high-altitude ER-2 Doppler Radar (EDOP), as well as ground-based radars. The comparison is aimed primarily at the vertical reflectivity structure, which is of key importance in TRMM rain type classification and latent heating estimation. The radars used in this study have considerably different viewing geometries and resolutions, demanding non-trivial mapping procedures in common earth-relative coordinates. Mapped vertical cross sections and mean profiles of reflectivity from the PR, EDOP, and ground-based radars are compared for six cases. These cases cover a stratiform frontal rainband, convective cells of various sizes and stages, and a hurricane. For precipitating systems that are large relative to the PR footprint size, PR reflectivity profiles compare very well to high-resolution measurements thresholded to the PR minimum reflectivity, and derived variables such as bright band height and rain types are accurate, even at high PR incidence angles. It was found that for, the PR reflectivity of convective cells small relative to the PR footprint is weaker than in reality. Some of these differences can be explained by non-uniform beam filling. For other cases where strong reflectivity gradients occur within a PR footprint, the reflectivity distribution is spread out due to filtering by the PR antenna illumination pattern. In these cases, rain type classification may err and be biased towards the stratiform type, and the average reflectivity tends to be underestimated. The limited sensitivity of the PR implies that the upper regions of precipitation systems remain undetected and that the PR storm top height estimate is unreliable, usually underestimating the actual storm top height. This applies to all cases but the discrepancy is larger for smaller cells where limited sensitivity is compounded by incomplete beam filling. Users of level three TRMM PR products should be aware of this scale dependency.

Description: We have adopted the transport scenarios used in Part 1 to examine the sensitivity of stratospheric aircraft perturbations to transport changes in our 2-D model. Changes to the strength of the residual circulation in the upper troposphere and stratosphere and changes to the lower stratospheric K(sub zz) had similar effects in that increasing the transport rates decreased the overall stratospheric residence time and reduced the magnitude of the negative perturbation response in total ozone. Increasing the stratospheric K(sub yy) increased the residence time and enhanced the global scale negative total ozone response. However, increasing K(sub yy) along with self-consistent increases in the corresponding planetary wave drive, which leads to a stronger residual circulation, more than compensates for the K(sub yy)-effect, and results in a significantly weaker perturbation response, relative to the base case, throughout the stratosphere. We found a relatively minor model perturbation response sensitivity to the magnitude of K(sub yy) in the tropical stratosphere, and only a very small sensitivity to the magnitude of the horizontal mixing across the tropopause and to the strength of the mesospheric gravity wave drag and diffusion. These transport simulations also revealed a generally strong correlation between passive NO(sub y) accumulation and age of air throughout the stratosphere, such that faster transport rates resulted in a younger mean age and a smaller NO(y) mass accumulation. However, specific variations in K(sub yy) and mesospheric gravity wave strength exhibited very little NO(sub y)-age correlation in the lower stratosphere, similar to 3-D model simulations performed in the recent NASA "Models and Measurements" II analysis. The base model transport, which gives the most favorable overall comparison with inert tracer observations, simulated a global/annual mean total ozone response of -0.59%, with only a slightly larger response in the northern compared to the southern hemisphere. For transport scenarios which gave tracer simulations within some agreement with measurements, the annual/globally averaged total ozone response ranged from -0.45% to -0.70%. Our previous 1995 model exhibited overly fast transport rates, resulting in a global/annually averaged perturbation total ozone response of -0.25%, which is significantly weaker compared to the 1999 model. This illustrates how transport deficiencies can bias model simulations of stratospheric aircraft.

Description: The direct radiative forcing of Saharan dust aerosols has been determined by combining aerosol information derived from Nimbus-7 TOMS with radiation measurements observed at the top of atmosphere (TOA) by NOAA-9 ERBE made during February-July 1985. Cloud parameters and precipitable water derived from the NOAA-9 HIRS2 instrument were used to aid in screening for clouds and water vapor in the analyses. Our results indicate that under "cloud-free" and "dry" conditions there is a good correlation between the ERBE TOA outgoing longwave fluxes and the TOMS aerosol index measurements over both land and ocean in areas under the influence of airborne Saharan dust. The ERBE TOA outgoing shortwave fluxes were also found to correlate well with the dust loading derived from TOMS over ocean. However, the calculated shortwave forcing of Saharan dust aerosols is very weak and noisy over land for the range of solar zenith angle viewed by the NOAA-9 ERBE in 1985. Sensitivity factors of the TOA outgoing fluxes to changes in aerosol index were estimated using a linear regression fit to the ERBE and TOMS measurements. The ratio of the shortwave-to-longwave response to changes in dust loading over the ocean is found to be roughly 2 to 3, but opposite in sign. The monthly averaged "clear-sky" TOA direct forcing of airborne Saharan dust was also calculated by multiplying these sensitivity factors by the TOMS monthly averaged "clear-sky" aerosol index. Both the observational and theoretical analyses indicate that the dust layer height, ambient moisture content as well as the presence of cloud all play an important role in determining the TOA direct radiative forcing due to mineral aerosols.

Description: According to the slip partitioning concept, the trench parallel component of relative plate motion in regions of oblique convergence is accommodated by strike-slip faulting in the overriding continental lithosphere. The pattern of postseismic surface deformation due to viscoelastic flow in the lower crust and asthenosphere following a major earthquake on such a fault is modified from that predicted from the conventual elastic layer over viscoelastic halfspace model by the presence of the subducting slab. The predicted effects, such as a partial suppression of the postseismic velocities by 1 cm/yr or more immediately following a moderate to great earthquake, are potentially detectable using contemporary geodetic techniques.

Description: The subject of neotectonics, covering the structures and structural activity of the last 5 million years (i.e., post-Miocene) is a well-recognized field, including "active tectonics," focussed on the last 500,000 years in a 1986 National Research Council report of that title. However, there is a cartographic gap between tectonic maps, generally showing all features regardless of age, and maps of current seismic or volcanic activity. We have compiled a map intended to bridge this gap, using modern data bases and computer-aided cartographic techniques. The maps presented here are conceptually descended from an earlier map showing tectonic and volcanic activity of the last one million years. Drawn by hand with the National Geographic Society's 1975 "The Physical World" map as a base, the 1981 map in various revisions has been widely reproduced in textbooks and various technical publications. However, two decades of progress call for a completely new map that can take advantage of new knowledge and cartographic techniques. The digital tectonic activity map (DTM), presented in shaded relief (Fig. 1) and schematic (Fig. 2) versions, is the result. The DTM is intended to show tectonism and volcanism of the last one million years, a period long enough to be representative of global activity, but short enough that features such as fault scarps and volcanos are still geomorphically recognizable. Data Sources and Cartographic Methods The DTM is based on a wide range of sources, summarized in Table 1. The most important is the digital elevation model, used to construct a shaded relief map. The bathymetry is largely from satellite altimetry, specifically the marine gravity compilations by Smith and Sandwell (1996). The shaded relief map was designed to match the new National Geographic Society world physical map (1992), although drawn independently, from the digital elevation model. The Robinson Projection is used instead of the earlier Van der Grinten one. Although neither conformal nor equal-area, the Robinson Projection provides a reasonable compromise and retains useful detail at high latitudes.

Description: High-resolution AMS (accelerator-mass-spectrometer) radiocarbon dating was performed on late-glacial macrofossils in lake sediments from Kodiak Island, Alaska, and on shells in marine sediments from southwest Sweden. In both records, a dramatic drop in radiocarbon ages equivalent to a rise in the atmospheric C-14 by approximately 70%. coincides with the beginning of the cold period at 11000 yr B.P. (C-14 age). Thus our results show that a close correlation between climatic records around the globe is possible by using a global signature of changes in atmospheric C-14 content.

Description: There are procedures and methods for verification of coding algebra and for validations of models and calculations that are in use in the aerospace computational fluid dynamics (CFD) community. These methods would be efficacious if used by the glacier dynamics modelling community. This paper is a presentation of some of those methods, and how they might be applied to uncertainty management supporting code verification and model validation for glacier dynamics. The similarities and differences between their use in CFD analysis and the proposed application of these methods to glacier modelling are discussed. After establishing sources of uncertainty and methods for code verification, the paper looks at a representative sampling of verification and validation efforts that are underway in the glacier modelling community, and establishes a context for these within overall solution quality assessment. Finally, an information architecture and interactive interface is introduced and advocated. This Integrated Cryospheric Exploration (ICE) Environment is proposed for exploring and managing sources of uncertainty in glacier modelling codes and methods, and for supporting scientific numerical exploration and verification. The details and functionality of this Environment are described based on modifications of a system already developed for CFD modelling and analysis.

Description: A two-dimensional coupled ocean-cloud resolving atmosphere model is used to investigate possible roles of convective scale ocean disturbances induced by atmospheric precipitation on ocean mixed-layer heat and salt budgets. The model couples a cloud resolving model with an embedded mixed layer-ocean circulation model. Five experiment are performed under imposed large-scale atmospheric forcing in terms of vertical velocity derived from the TOGA COARE observations during a selected seven-day period. The dominant variability of mixed-layer temperature and salinity are simulated by the coupled model with imposed large-scale forcing. The mixed-layer temperatures in the coupled experiments with 1-D and 2-D ocean models show similar variations when salinity effects are not included. When salinity effects are included, however, differences in the domain-mean mixed-layer salinity and temperature between coupled experiments with 1-D and 2-D ocean models could be as large as 0.3 PSU and 0.4 C respectively. Without fresh water effects, the nocturnal heat loss over ocean surface causes deep mixed layers and weak cooling rates so that the nocturnal mixed-layer temperatures tend to be horizontally-uniform. The fresh water flux, however, causes shallow mixed layers over convective areas while the nocturnal heat loss causes deep mixed layer over convection-free areas so that the mixed-layer temperatures have large horizontal fluctuations. Furthermore, fresh water flux exhibits larger spatial fluctuations than surface heat flux because heavy rainfall occurs over convective areas embedded in broad non-convective or clear areas, whereas diurnal signals over whole model areas yield high spatial correlation of surface heat flux. As a result, mixed-layer salinities contribute more to the density differences than do mixed-layer temperatures.

Description: The possibility of coupled modes in the extratropical North Atlantic has fascinated the climate community since 1960's. A significant aspect of such modes is an unstable air-sea interaction, also called positive feedback, where disturbances between the atmosphere and ocean grow unbound. If a delayed response exists before the negative feedback takes effect, an oscillatory behaviour will develop. Here we explore the relationship between heat flux (positive upward) and sea surface temperature (SST). Positive feedback is characterized by a cross-correlation between the two where correlation maintains a negative sign whether SST or heat flux leads. We use model results and observations to argue that in the North Atlantic there exist regions with positive feedback. The two main locations coincide with the well-known north-south SST dipole where anomalies of opposite sign occupy areas east of Florida and north-east of Newfoundland. We show that oceanic dynamics, wave propagation and advection, give rise to oceanic anomalies in these regions. Subsequently these anomalies are amplified by atmosphere- ocean interaction: thus a positive feedback.

Description: Instrumentation and retrieval algorithms are described which use the forward, or bistatically scattered range-coded signals from the Global Positioning System (GPS) radio navigation system for the measurement of sea surface roughness. This roughness is known to be related directly to the surface wind speed. Experiments were conducted from aircraft along the TOPEX ground track, and over experimental surface truth buoys. These flights used a receiver capable of recording the cross correlation power in the reflected signal. The shape of this power distribution was then compared against analytical models derived from geometric optics. Two techniques for matching these functions were studied. The first recognized the most significant information content in the reflected signal is contained in the trailing edge slope of the waveform. The second attempted to match the complete shape of the waveform by approximating it as a series expansion and obtaining the nonlinear least squares estimate. Discussion is also presented on anomalies in the receiver operation and their identification and correction.

Description: Using the Penn State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale model, a westerly wind burst (WWB) that occurred during the period from 19 to 30 December 1992 over the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) has been simulated and compared with observation. This event is characterized by the presence of super cloud clusters and the occurrence of a major WWB that extended over the western and central Pacific Ocean. Although several of the observed convective systems were not precisely simulated by MM5, the model did capture many other observed characteristics, such as the explosive development of convection, the cyclonic circulation and the WWB. The WWB resulted from the coalescence of three types of tropical disturbances. The first type was a low-level westerly jet (LWJ) that developed at the equator and may be associated with the eastward propagation of an ISO (Intraseasonal Oscillation). The second type featured an easterly wave-like disturbance that originated in the south central Pacific Ocean and propagated westward. Finally, the third type involved a cross-equatorial flow that deflected Northern Hemispheric easterlies into the Southern Hemisphere and may be caused by inertial instability. These disturbances worked in concert, resulting in intense convection over the TOGA COARE region. Once intense convection developed, a large-scale circulation was produced over the western Pacific warm pool, propagated eastward, and initiated a WWB.

Description: A model combining the rate of carbon assimilation with water and energy balance equations has been run using satellite and ancillary data for a period of 60 months (January 1986 to December 1990). Calculations for the Gediz basin area give mean annual evaporation as 395 mm, which is composed of 45% transpiration, 42% soil evaporation and 13% interception. The coefficient of interannual variation of evaporation is found to be 6%, while that for precipitation and net radiation are, respectively, 16% and 2%, illustrating that net radiation has an important effect in modulating interannual variation of evaporation. The mean annual water use efficiency (i.e., the ratio of net carbon accumulation and total evaporation) is ca. 1 g/sq m/mm, and has a coefficient of interannual variation of 5%. A comparison of the mean water use efficiency with field observations suggests that evaporation over the area is utilized well for biomass production. The reference crop evaporation for irrigated areas has annual mean and coefficient of variation as, respectively, 1176 mm and 3%. The total evaporation during three summer months of peak evaporation (June-August) is estimated to be about 575 mm for irrigated crops like maize and cotton. Seasonal variations of the fluxes are presented.

Description: The behavior of mesospheric odd nitrogen species during and following relativistic and diffuse auroral precipitation events is simulated, Below 75 km nitric oxide is enhanced in proportion to the ion pair production function associated with the electron precipitation and the length of the event. Nitrogen dioxide and nitric acid are also enhanced. At 65 km the percentage of odd nitrogen for N is 0.1%, HNO3 is 1.6%, NO2 is 15%, and NO is 83.3%. Between 75 and 85 km NO is depleted during particle events due to the faster destruction of NO by N relative to the production of NO by N reacting with O2. Recovery of NO depends on transport from the lower thermosphere, where NO is produced in abundant amounts during particle events.

Description: Advantages introduced by Raman lidar systems for cloud base determination during precipitating periods are explored using two case studies of light rain and virga conditions. A combination of the Raman lidar derived profiles of water vapor mixing ratio and aerosol scattering ratio, together with the Raman scattered signals from liquid drops, can minimize or even eliminate some of the problems associated with cloud boundary detection using elastic backscatter lidars.

Description: Long-lived tropospheric source gases, such as nitrous oxide, enter the stratosphere through the tropical tropopause, are transported throughout the stratosphere by the Brewer-Dobson circulation, and are photochemically destroyed in the upper stratosphere. These chemical constituents, or "tracers" can be used to track mixing and transport by the stratospheric winds. Much of our understanding about the stratospheric circulation is based on large scale gradients and other spatial features in tracer fields constructed from satellite measurements. The point of view presented in this paper is different, but complementary, in that transport is described in terms of tracer probability distribution functions (PDFs). The PDF is computed from the measurements, and is proportional to the area occupied by tracer values in a given range. The flavor of this paper is tutorial, and the ideas are illustrated with several examples of transport-related phenomena, annotated with remarks that summarize the main point or suggest new directions. One example shows how the multimodal shape of the PDF gives information about the different branches of the circulation. Another example shows how the statistics of fluctuations from the most probable tracer value give insight into mixing between different regions of the atmosphere. Also included is an analysis of the time-dependence of the PDF during the onset and decline of the winter circulation, and a study of how "bursts" in the circulation are reflected in transient periods of rapid evolution of the PDF. The dependence of the statistics on location and time are also shown to be important for practical problems related to statistical robustness and satellite sampling. The examples illustrate how physically-based statistical analysis can shed some light on aspects of stratospheric transport that may not be obvious or quantifiable with other types of analyses. An important motivation for the work presented here is the need for synthesis of the large and growing database of observations of the atmosphere and the vast quantities of output generated by atmospheric models.

Description: Magnetic remanence of crustal rocks can reside in three common rock-forming magnetic minerals: magnetite, pyrrhotite, and hematite. Thermoremanent magnetization (TRM) of magnetite and pyrrhotite is carried mostly by single domain (SD) grains. The TRM of hematite grains, however, is carried mostly by multidomain (NM) grains. This characteristic is illustrated by TRM acquisition curves for hematite of variable grainsizes. The transition between truly NM behavior and tendency towards SD behavior his been established between hematite grainsizes of 0. 1 and 0.05 mm. Coarse grainsize of lower crustal rocks and the large sensitivity of MD hematite grains to acquire TRM indicates that hematite could be a significant contributor to long-wavelength magnetic anomalies.