ALBERT

Description: Prior to 1991, major warmings (defined by increasing zonal mean temperatures and zonal mean easterly winds from 60degN to the pole at 10 hPa) typically occurred approximately once every two Arctic winters; a major warming in mid-Dec. 1998 was the first since Feb. 1991. The Dec. 1998 warming was also the second earliest on record. The earliest, and the only other major warming on record before the end of Dec. was in early Dec 1987; prior to that, the earliest was in late Dec./early Jan. 1984-85. The 1984-85 and 1987 warmings resulted in the warmest and weakest lower stratospheric polar vortices in the 20 years before 1998-99. Fig. 1 compares temperatures and vortex strength in 1998-99 with those in the previous 20 years, using the US National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) record; 1987-88 and 1984-85 are also highlighted. The Dec. 1998 warming had a more pronounced effect on mid-stratospheric temperatures than the Dec. 1987 warming (Fig. 1a), although smaller than that of warmings later in winter (e.g., 1984-85). 10-hPa temperatures fell well below average again in late Jan. 1999 and remained unusually low until an early final warming began in late Feb. 840 K PV gradients (Fig. 1c) set a record minimum in Jan. 1999, but were near average in Feb before the final warming. The effect of the Dec. 1998 warming on lower stratospheric temperatures was comparable to that of other major warmings; there was a brief period of record-high minimum 46-hPa temperatures in early Jan 1999 (Fig. 1b), and temperatures then fell to near average for a short period in mid-Feb. Lower stratospheric PV gradients were the weakest on record during the 1998-99 winter (Fig. 1d). The evolution of the vortex and minimum temperatures during 1998-99 was remarkably similar to that during 1987-88, the only previous year when a major warming was observed before the end of Dec.

Description: Terms for the transformed Eulerian equations are calculated in order to characterize the phenomenom of sudden stratospheric warming. The transformed diagnostics are applied to data for warmings during Dec. and Jan. 1976-1977, as well as cross sections for the directions of the Eiliassen-Palm (EP) fluxes and residual mean meridional circulations. The convergence of the EP flux was determined to provide a strong approximation to the total effect of waves in forcing the zonal mean flow. The EP fluxes change from an upward and equatorward direction to an upward and poleward direction during the warmings, and indications are reported that the effect is due to a feedback on wave propagation of an evolving mean flow. Ray paths in the meridional plane are computed for different mean wind fields to determine the direction of wave propagation according to linear theory based on the WKB approximation.

Description: The observation and interpretation of a large, unexpected ozone depletion over Antarctica has changed the international scientific view of stratospheric chemistry. The observations which show the veracity, seasonal nature, and vertical structure of the Antarctic ozone hole are presented. Evidence for Arctic and midlatitude ozone loss is also discussed. The chemical theory for Antarctic ozone depletion centers around the occurrence of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) in Antarctic winter and spring; the climatology and radiative properties of these clouds are presented. Lab studies of the physical properties of PSCs and the chemical processes that subsequently influence ozone depletion are discussed. Observations and interpretation of the chemical composition of the Antarctic stratosphere are described. It is shown that the observed, greatly enhanced abundances of chlorine monoxide in the lower stratosphere are sufficient to explain much if not all of the ozone decrease. The dynamic meteorology of both polar regions is given, interannual and interhemispheric variations in dynamical processes are outlined, and their likely roles in ozone loss are discussed.

Description: The aim of the MASH project is to study the dynamics of the middle atmosphere in the Southern Hemisphere, emphasizing inter-hemispheric differences. Both observational data and data from simulations with numerical models are being used. It is intended that MASH will be complemented by parallel studies on the transport and photochemistry of trace species in the Southern Hemisphere. Impetus for such studies has come from the unexpected finding of a springtime ozone hole over Antarctica. A summary of recent progress with the MASH project is given. Data from polar orbiting satellites are used to discuss the large scale circulation found in the Southern Hemisphere at extratropical latitudes. Comparisons are made with that of the Northern Hemisphere. Particular attention is paid to the springtime final warming, the most spectacular large scale phenomenon in the statosphere of the Southern Hemisphere. The circulation before and after this event has to be taken into account in theories for the formation and subsequent disappearance of the ozone hole.

Description: Studies have linked elements of the stratospheric circulation with particular localized features in the tropospheric circulation. This suggests a study of the response of the stratosphere to forcing by localized disturbances in the troposphere. A multilevel, primitive equation model is used of the stratosphere and mesosphere the height of whose lower boundary at 300 mb can be prescribed. Localized height disturbances which grow to steady amplitude are applied at this lower boundary, and the response of the initially axially symmetric stratosphere is studied. The perturbation, centered at 45 deg N, has a Gaussian distribution with a half width of 15 deg., corresponding roughly to the size of persistent troughs and blocking ridges in the troposphere. The forcing is nearly at fully amplitude 10 days after being switched on, and thereafter remains steady. Two types of experiments are conducted: in one the forcing is of small amplitude (100 gpm) and in the other it is of large amplitude (600 gpm). These pairs of experiments are compared to determine how nonlinear processes affect the perturbation fields. This is done locally by defining the perturbation response to the forcing as an anomaly, i.e., as a departure from the response in a controlled experiment in which no asymmetric forcing was applied at the lower boundary of the model. Experiments have been conducted for a number of atmospheric states obtained as zonal means of observations made by a stratospheric sounding unit (SSU). In this summary, results for the zonal mean flow on January 19, 1982 are outlined.

Description: In the winter stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere, the disruption of the westerly vortex and associated warming of polar latitudes is a well known phenomenon. It has become apparent that some important dynamical processes in the stratosphere are highly nonlinear and are best thought of locally rather than in terms of the interaction between the zonal-mean flow and harmonic waves around latitude circles. The importance of nonlinear processes was suggested by McIntyre and Palmer (1983, 1984) who used isentropic maps of Ertel's Potential Vorticity to show that during disturbed episodes material lines may become strongly and irreversibly deformed in certain places. They adopted the term planetary wave breaking to describe this process. Isentropic maps of Q are used to follow the evolution of a Canadian warming in November - December 1981 and a particularly strong warming in January 1982. The advection of Q over large distances on isentropic surfaces was a striking feature of the flow during each event. This could be identified because of our ability to follow the movement of material lines due to the approximate conservation of Q over several days. The advection of Q was a nonlinear process because its changing distribution affected the advecting wind field. The Canadian warming did not lead to a permanent change in the structure of the westerly vortex, as defined by the coarse-grain field of Q, whereas the January event was accompanied by a substantial loss of resolved Q which was never fully recovered.

Description: The seasonal evolution of the stratospheric circulation in both hemispheres is studied using a coordinate independent diagnostic tied to the vortex, wherever it lies, rather than to latitude circles. Zonally averaged quantities are highly variable in the winter stratosphere, as the vortex moves on and off the pole, masking systematic changes in the structure of the vortex. The quantities shown here are the areas A(Q), where Ertel's potential vorticity is greater than a specified value Q, for various Q. In these calculations, Q is evaluated on the 850K isentropic surface which lies near 10 mb in the middle of the stratosphere. The advantage of using contours of Q (rather than contours of geopotential height, say) is that an area enclosed by such contours is approximately constant for quasi nondivergent, adiabatic, inviscid motion. Changes in area will occur if any of the above restrictions on the motion are invalid, and also if scales of motions are generated below those that can be adequately resolved. The evolution of area shows the systematic change in the average structure of the vortex. At a given time, the rate of change of Q with A(Q) gives a measure of the average gradient of Q. The gradient of Q is relevant for the propagation of large-scale disturbances into the stratosphere. Experience has also shown that winds tend to be strong (weak) when the gradient of Q is strong (weak).

Description: Five years of global data are available for the stratosphere up to 1 mb from Stratospheric Sounding Units (SSUs) on board NOAA satellites. These data form the basis for a climatological study which concentrates on the seasonal and inter-annual variability of the stratosphere and the connection between the stratospheric circulation and that of the troposphere. Particular emphasis is on the structure of the Southern Hemisphere and how it compares with that of the Northern Hemisphere. The characteristic difference in the vertical structure and propagation of disturbances in the two hemispheres is related to differences in the tropospheric flow and the long-term variation of the basic state of the stratosphere. Disturbances in both hemispheres occur in preferred geographical locations. The final warming, marking the transition from westerly to easterly winds, is an example. These occur asymmetrically with respect to the pole as warm air moves over the pole, usually from the same region.