ALBERT

Description: The purpose of the chemistry component of the model comparison is to assess to what extent differences in the formulation of chemical processes explain the variance between model results. Observed concentrations of chemical compounds are used to estimate to what degree the various models represent realistic situations. For readability, the materials for the chemistry experiment are reported in three separate sections. This section discussed the data used to evaluate the models in their simulation of the source gases and the Nitrogen compounds (NO(y)) and Chlorine compounds (Cl(y)) species.

Description: The Second Workshop on Stratospheric Models and Measurements Workshop (M&M II) is the continuation of the effort previously started in the first Workshop (M&M I, Prather and Remsberg [1993]) held in 1992. As originally stated, the aim of M&M is to provide a foundation for establishing the credibility of stratospheric models used in environmental assessments of the ozone response to chlorofluorocarbons, aircraft emissions, and other climate-chemistry interactions. To accomplish this, a set of measurements of the present day atmosphere was selected. The intent was that successful simulations of the set of measurements should become the prerequisite for the acceptance of these models as having a reliable prediction for future ozone behavior. This section is divided into two: model experiment and model descriptions. In the model experiment, participant were given the charge to design a number of experiments that would use observations to test whether models are using the correct mechanisms to simulate the distributions of ozone and other trace gases in the atmosphere. The purpose is closely tied to the needs to reduce the uncertainties in the model predicted responses of stratospheric ozone to perturbations. The specifications for the experiments were sent out to the modeling community in June 1997. Twenty eight modeling groups responded to the requests for input. The first part of this section discusses the different modeling group, along with the experiments performed. Part two of this section, gives brief descriptions of each model as provided by the individual modeling groups.

Description: Because of the great environmental significance of stratospheric ozone, and to support continuing research at the Antarctic Southern Hemisphere stations, the development of the 1991 ozone hole was monitored using data from the Nimbus-7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) instrument, produced in near-real-time. This atlas provides a complete set of daily polar orthographic projections of the TOMS total ozone measurements over the Southern Hemisphere for the period August 1 through November 30, 1991. The 1991 ozone hole developed in a manner similar to that of the 1987, 1989, and 1990 holes, reaching a comparable depth in early October. However, the 1991 ozone hole filled far more rapidly than in 1987 or 1989, and nearly 4 weeks earlier than in 1990.

Description: Because of the great environmental significance of ozone and to support continuing research at the Antarctic and other Southern Hemisphere stations, the development of the 1990 ozone hole was monitored using data from the Nimbus-7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) instrument, produced in near-real-time. This Atlas provides a complete set of daily polar orthographic projections of the TOMS total ozone measurements over the Southern Hemisphere for the period 1 Aug. through 31 Dec. 1990. The 1990 ozone hole developed in a manner similar to that of 1987 and 1989, reaching a comparable depth in early October. This was in sharp contrast to the much weaker hold of 1988. The 1990 ozone hole remained at polar latitudes as it filled in Nov., in contrast to other recent years when the hold drifted to mid-latitudes before disappearing. Daily ozone values above selected Southern Hemisphere stations are presented, along with comparisons of the 1990 ozone distribution to that of other years. A new calibration scheme (Version 6) was used to process 1990 ozone values, as well as to reprocess those of previous years.

Description: A model intercomparison among the Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) 2-D model, the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) 2-D model, and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 2-D model allows us to separate differences due to model transport from those due to the model's chemical formulation. This is accomplished by constructing two hybrid models incorporating the transport parameters of the GSFC and LLNL models within the AER model framework. By comparing the results from the native models (AER and e.g. GSFC) with those from the hybrid model (e.g. AER chemistry with GSFC transport), differences due to chemistry and transport can be identified. For the analysis, we examined an inert tracer whose emission pattern is based on emission from a High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) fleet; distributions of trace species in the 2015 atmosphere; and the response of stratospheric ozone to an HSCT fleet. Differences in NO(y) in the upper stratosphere are found between models with identical transport, implying different model representations of atmospheric chemical processes. The response of O3 concentration to HSCT aircraft emissions differs in the models from both transport-dominated differences in the HSCT-induced perturbations of H2O and NO(y) as well as from differences in the model represent at ions of O3 chemical processes. The model formulations of cold polar processes are found to be the most significant factor in creating large differences in the calculated ozone perturbations

Description: The summary are: (1) Some chemical differences in background atmosphere are surprisingly large (NOY). (2) Differences in model transport explain a majority of the intertnodel differences in the absence of PSCs. (3) With PSCS, large differences exist in predicted O3 depletion between models with the same transport. (4) AER/LLNL model calculates more O3 depletion in NH than LLNL. (5) AER/GSFC model cannot match calculated O3 depletion of GSFC model in SH. and (6) Results sensitive to interannual temperature variations (at least in NH).

Description: This is the fourth semi-annual report for NAS5-97039, covering the time period July through December 1998. The overall objective of this project is to improve the understanding of coupling processes between atmospheric chemistry and climate. Model predictions of the future distributions of trace gases in the atmosphere constitute an important component of the input necessary for quantitative assessments of global change. We will concentrate on the changes in ozone and stratospheric sulfate aerosol, with emphasis on how ozone in the lower stratosphere would respond to natural or anthropogenic changes. The key modeling tools for this work are the Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) two-dimensional chemistry-transport model, the AER two-dimensional stratospheric sulfate model, and the AER three-wave interactive model with full chemistry. For this six month period, we report on a modeling study of new rate constant which modify the NOx/NOy ratio in the lower stratosphere; sensitivity to changes in stratospheric water vapor in the future atmosphere; a study of N2O and CH4 observations which has allowed us to adjust diffusion in the 2-D CTM in order to obtain appropriate polar vortex isolation; a study of SF6 and age of air with comparisons of models and measurements; and a report on the Models and Measurements II effort.

Description: Current methods for estimating the concentrations of inorganic chlorine/bromine species Cl(y)/Br(y) in the stratosphere due to decomposition of tropospheric source gases assume that the Cl(y)/Br(y) concentration in the stratosphere is determined mainly by the balance between production from in situ oxidation of the source gases in the stratosphere and removal by transport of Cl(y)/Br(y) out of the stratosphere. The rationale being that for source gases whose lifetimes are of the order of several months or longer the concentration of Cl(y)/Br(y) in the troposphere is small because they are produced at a relatively slow rate and also removed efficiently by washout processes. As a result of the small concentration, the rate at which Cl(y)/Br(y) is transported to the stratosphere is expected to be small compared to the in situ stratospheric production. Thus the transport of Cl(y)/Br(y) from the troposphere contributes little to the stratospheric concentration. In contrast, the origin of stratospheric Cl(y)/Br(y) from reactive source gases with tropospheric lifetimes comparable to the washout lifetime of Cl(y)/Br(y) (of the order of 10-30 days) in the troposphere is distinctly different. The in situ source in the stratosphere is expected to be significantly smaller because only a small portion of the source gas is expected to survive the troposphere to be transported into this region. At the same time these short-lived source gases produce appreciable amounts of Cl(y)/Br(y) in the troposphere such that transport to the stratosphere offers a larger source for stratospheric Cl(y)/Br(y) than in situ production. Thus, for reactive source species, simple methods of estimating the concentration of stratospheric Cl(y)/Br(y) that ignore the tropospheric contribution will seriously underestimate the loading. Therefore estimation of the stratospheric Cl(y)/Br(y) loading requires not only measurements of tropospheric source gases but also measurements of Cl(y)/Br(y) at the tropopause. This paper illustrates the mechanism by using results from a two-dimensional chemistry-transport model. However, in view of the importance of tropospheric transport on stratospheric loading the detailed values should be further evaluated using a three-dimensional model with appropriate treatment of convective transport.