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  • Climate change
  • Springer  (44)
  • John Wiley & Sons  (14)
  • IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature, Bangladesh Country Office  (1)
  • American Institute of Physics (AIP)
  • 2015-2019  (17)
  • 1995-1999  (42)
  • 1950-1954
  • 1
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    Climate change and functional traits affect population dynamics of a long‐lived seabird (2018)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2018. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Animal Ecology 87 (2018): 906-920, doi:10.1111/1365-2656.12827.
    Description: Recent studies unravelled the effect of climate changes on populations through their impact on functional traits and demographic rates in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, but such understanding in marine ecosystems remains incomplete. Here, we evaluate the impact of the combined effects of climate and functional traits on population dynamics of a long‐lived migratory seabird breeding in the southern ocean: the black‐browed albatross (Thalassarche melanophris, BBA). We address the following prospective question: “Of all the changes in the climate and functional traits, which would produce the biggest impact on the BBA population growth rate?” We develop a structured matrix population model that includes the effect of climate and functional traits on the complete BBA life cycle. A detailed sensitivity analysis is conducted to understand the main pathway by which climate and functional trait changes affect the population growth rate. The population growth rate of BBA is driven by the combined effects of climate over various seasons and multiple functional traits with carry‐over effects across seasons on demographic processes. Changes in sea surface temperature (SST) during late winter cause the biggest changes in the population growth rate, through their effect on juvenile survival. Adults appeared to respond to changes in winter climate conditions by adapting their migratory schedule rather than by modifying their at‐sea foraging activity. However, the sensitivity of the population growth rate to SST affecting BBA migratory schedule is small. BBA foraging activity during the pre‐breeding period has the biggest impact on population growth rate among functional traits. Finally, changes in SST during the breeding season have little effect on the population growth rate. These results highlight the importance of early life histories and carry‐over effects of climate and functional traits on demographic rates across multiple seasons in population response to climate change. Robust conclusions about the roles of various phases of the life cycle and functional traits in population response to climate change rely on an understanding of the relationships of traits to demographic rates across the complete life cycle.
    Description: NSF Grant Number: OPP‐1246407; European Research Council Advanced Grant Grant Numbers: ERC‐2012‐ADG_20120314, 322989
    Keywords: Birds ; Climate change ; Foraging behaviours ; Non‐breeding season ; Phenotypic traits ; Pre‐breeding season ; Timing of breeding ; Wing length
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 2
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    Climate change and the threat of novel marine predators in Antarctica (2018)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ecosphere 8 (2017): 10.1002/ecs2.2017, doi:10.1002/ecs2.2017.
    Description: Historically low temperatures have severely limited skeleton-breaking predation on the Antarctic shelf, facilitating the evolution of a benthic fauna poorly defended against durophagy. Now, rapid warming of the Southern Ocean is restructuring Antarctic marine ecosystems as conditions become favorable for range expansions. Populations of the lithodid crab Paralomis birsteini currently inhabit some areas of the continental slope off Antarctica. They could potentially expand along the slope and upward to the outer continental shelf, where temperatures are no longer prohibitively low. We identified two sites inhabited by different densities of lithodids in the slope environment along the western Antarctic Peninsula. Analysis of the gut contents of P. birsteini trapped on the slope revealed them to be opportunistic invertivores. The abundances of three commonly eaten, eurybathic taxa—ophiuroids, echinoids, and gastropods—were negatively associated with P. birsteini off Marguerite Bay, where lithodid densities averaged 4280 ind/km2 at depths of 1100–1499 m (range 3440–5010 ind/km2), but not off Anvers Island, where lithodid densities were lower, averaging 2060 ind/km2 at these depths (range 660–3270 ind/km2). Higher abundances of lithodids appear to exert a negative effect on invertebrate distribution on the slope. Lateral or vertical range expansions of P. birsteini at sufficient densities could substantially reduce populations of their benthic prey off Antarctica, potentially exacerbating the direct impacts of rising temperatures on the distribution and diversity of the contemporary shelf benthos.
    Description: Division of Polar Programs Grant Numbers: ANT-0838466, ANT-0838844, ANT-1141877, ANT-1141896; Vetenskapsrådet Grant Number: 824-2008-6429; H2020 Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions Grant Number: 704895; U.S. National Science Foundation; European Commission; University of Alabama at Birmingham
    Keywords: Antarctica ; Bathyal ; Benthic ; Climate change ; Echinoidea ; Lithodidae ; Ophiuroidea ; Paralomis ; Polar emergence ; Predation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 3
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    Implications of future northwest Atlantic bottom temperatures on the American lobster (Homarus americanus) fishery (2018)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122 (2017): 9387–9398, doi:10.1002/2017JC012949.
    Description: Sea surface temperatures of the northwest Atlantic have warmed dramatically over the last several decades, while benthic temperatures have increased at a slower pace. Here we analyze a subset of the CMIP5 global Earth system model ensemble using a statistical downscaling approach to determine potential future changes in benthic temperatures on the northwest Atlantic continental shelf and slope (〈500 m). We put future changes in the context of possible impacts of ocean warming on the high-value, wild-caught American Lobster (Homarus americanus) fishery. Future bottom temperatures of the northwest Atlantic under a business-as-usual (RCP8.5) and a climate-policy (RCP4.5) scenario are projected to increase by 0–1.5°C and 1.2–2.4°C by 2050 and 0–1.9°C and 2.3–4.3°C by the end of the century for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. H. americanus experiences thermal stress at temperatures above 20°C, and projected increases in temperature is likely to result in changes in the distribution of optimal thermal egg hatching and settlement indicators. Inshore regions of southern New England, where H. americanus biomass and catch have been declining historically, will likely become inhospitable under either future scenario, while thermal egg hatching and settlement indicators will expand offshore and in the Gulf of Maine. These changes imply that members of the fishery based in southern New England may need to recapitalize to larger vessels to prepare for potential changes brought on by future climate warming. Results from the downscaling presented here can be useful in preparing for potential changes to other fisheries or in future climate vulnerability analyses.
    Description: John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation Grant Number: 14-106159-000-CFP; NASA Grant Number: NNX14AP62A; “National Marine Sanctuaries as Sentinel Sites for a Demonstration Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON)”; National Ocean Partnership Program Grant Number: NOPP RFP NOAA-NOS IOOS-2014-2003803; NOAA Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) Program Office
    Keywords: Benthic temperature ; Climate change ; Warming ; American Lobster
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 4
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    Thirty-three years of ocean benthic warming along the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf and Slope : patterns, drivers, and ecological consequences (2018)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122 (2017): 9399–9414, doi:10.1002/2017JC012953.
    Description: The U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf is experiencing rapid warming, with potentially profound consequences to marine ecosystems. While satellites document multiple scales of spatial and temporal variability on the surface, our understanding of the status, trends, and drivers of the benthic environmental change remains limited. We interpolated sparse benthic temperature data along the New England Shelf and upper Slope using a seasonally dynamic, regionally specific multiple linear regression model that merged in situ and remote sensing data. The statistical model predicted nearly 90% of the variability of the data, resulting in a synoptic time series spanning over three decades from 1982 to 2014. Benthic temperatures increased throughout the domain, including in the Gulf of Maine. Rates of benthic warming ranged from 0.1 to 0.4°C per decade, with fastest rates occurring in shallow, nearshore regions and on Georges Bank, the latter exceeding rates observed in the surface. Rates of benthic warming were up to 1.6 times faster in winter than the rest of the year in many regions, with important implications for disease occurrence and energetics of overwintering species. Drivers of warming varied over the domain. In southern New England and the mid-Atlantic shallow Shelf regions, benthic warming was tightly coupled to changes in SST, whereas both regional and basin-scale changes in ocean circulation affect temperatures in the Gulf of Maine, the Continental Shelf, and Georges Banks. These results highlight data gaps, the current feasibility of prediction from remotely sensed variables, and the need for improved understanding on how climate may affect seasonally specific ecological processes.
    Description: John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation Grant Number: 14–106159-000-CFP; National Aeronautics and Space Administration Grant Number: NNX14AP62A
    Keywords: Benthic habitat ; New England ; Warming ; Climate change ; Satellite remote sensing
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  • 5
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    A gradient of nutrient enrichment reveals nonlinear impacts of fertilization on Arctic plant diversity and ecosystem function (2017)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ecology and Evolution 7 (2017): 2449–2460, doi:10.1002/ece3.2863.
    Description: Rapid environmental change at high latitudes is predicted to greatly alter the diversity, structure, and function of plant communities, resulting in changes in the pools and fluxes of nutrients. In Arctic tundra, increased nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) availability accompanying warming is known to impact plant diversity and ecosystem function; however, to date, most studies examining Arctic nutrient enrichment focus on the impact of relatively large (〉25x estimated naturally occurring N enrichment) doses of nutrients on plant community composition and net primary productivity. To understand the impacts of Arctic nutrient enrichment, we examined plant community composition and the capacity for ecosystem function (net ecosystem exchange, ecosystem respiration, and gross primary production) across a gradient of experimental N and P addition expected to more closely approximate warming-induced fertilization. In addition, we compared our measured ecosystem CO2 flux data to a widely used Arctic ecosystem exchange model to investigate the ability to predict the capacity for CO2 exchange with nutrient addition. We observed declines in abundance-weighted plant diversity at low levels of nutrient enrichment, but species richness and the capacity for ecosystem carbon uptake did not change until the highest level of fertilization. When we compared our measured data to the model, we found that the model explained roughly 30%–50% of the variance in the observed data, depending on the flux variable, and the relationship weakened at high levels of enrichment. Our results suggest that while a relatively small amount of nutrient enrichment impacts plant diversity, only relatively large levels of fertilization—over an order of magnitude or more than warming-induced rates—significantly alter the capacity for tundra CO2 exchange. Overall, our findings highlight the value of measuring and modeling the impacts of a nutrient enrichment gradient, as warming-related nutrient availability may impact ecosystems differently than single-level fertilization experiments.
    Description: NASA Terrestrial Ecology Grant Number: NNX12AK83G; National Science Foundation Division of Graduate Education Grant Number: DGE-11-44155
    Keywords: Arctic ; Climate change ; Ecosystem function ; Ecosystem respiration ; Gross primary productivity ; Net ecosystem ; CO2 exchange ; Plant diversity
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  • 6
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    Circumpolar analysis of the Adélie Penguin reveals the importance of environmental variability in phenological mismatch (2017)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © Ecological Society of America, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of Ecological Society of America for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Ecology 98 (2017): 940-951, doi:10.1002/ecy.1749.
    Description: Evidence of climate-change-driven shifts in plant and animal phenology have raised concerns that certain trophic interactions may be increasingly mismatched in time, resulting in declines in reproductive success. Given the constraints imposed by extreme seasonality at high latitudes and the rapid shifts in phenology seen in the Arctic, we would also expect Antarctic species to be highly vulnerable to climate-change-driven phenological mismatches with their environment. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of phenological change in Antarctica. Using the largest database of phytoplankton phenology, sea-ice phenology, and Adélie Penguin breeding phenology and breeding success assembled to date, we find that, while a temporal match between Penguin breeding phenology and optimal environmental conditions sets an upper limit on breeding success, only a weak relationship to the mean exists. Despite previous work suggesting that divergent trends in Adélie Penguin breeding phenology are apparent across the Antarctic continent, we find no such trends. Furthermore, we find no trend in the magnitude of phenological mismatch, suggesting that mismatch is driven by interannual variability in environmental conditions rather than climate-change-driven trends, as observed in other systems. We propose several criteria necessary for a species to experience a strong climate-change-driven phenological mismatch, of which several may be violated by this system.
    Description: Funding to H. J. Lynch and C. Youngflesh was provided by the National Science Foundation Grant OPP/GSS 1255058, to S. Jenouvrier, H. J. Lynch, C. Youngflesh, Y. Li, and R. Ji by the National Science Foundation Grant 1341474, to S. Jenouvrier, Y. Li, and R. Ji by NASA grant NNX14AH74G, to D. G. Ainley, G. Ballard, and K. M. Dugger by the National Science Foundation Grants OPP 9526865, 9814882, 0125608, 0944411 and 0440643, to P. O’B. Lyver by New Zealand’s Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment Grants C09X0510 and C01X1001, and Ministry of Primary Industry grants with logistic support from Antarctica New Zealand.
    Keywords: Anna Karenina Principle ; Antarctica ; Asynchrony ; Bayesian hierarchical model ; Climate change ; Phenology ; Pygoscelis adeliae ; Quantile regression
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 7
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    Subsea ice-bearing permafrost on the U.S. Beaufort Margin : 2. Borehole constraints (2017)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 17 (2016): 4333–4353, doi:10.1002/2016GC006582.
    Description: Borehole logging data from legacy wells directly constrain the contemporary distribution of subsea permafrost in the sedimentary section at discrete locations on the U.S. Beaufort Margin and complement recent regional analyses of exploration seismic data to delineate the permafrost's offshore extent. Most usable borehole data were acquired on a ∼500 km stretch of the margin and within 30 km of the contemporary coastline from north of Lake Teshekpuk to nearly the U.S.-Canada border. Relying primarily on deep resistivity logs that should be largely unaffected by drilling fluids and hole conditions, the analysis reveals the persistence of several hundred vertical meters of ice-bonded permafrost in nearshore wells near Prudhoe Bay and Foggy Island Bay, with less permafrost detected to the east and west. Permafrost is inferred beneath many barrier islands and in some nearshore and lagoonal (back-barrier) wells. The analysis of borehole logs confirms the offshore pattern of ice-bearing subsea permafrost distribution determined based on regional seismic analyses and reveals that ice content generally diminishes with distance from the coastline. Lacking better well distribution, it is not possible to determine the absolute seaward extent of ice-bearing permafrost, nor the distribution of permafrost beneath the present-day continental shelf at the end of the Pleistocene. However, the recovery of gas hydrate from an outer shelf well (Belcher) and previous delineation of a log signature possibly indicating gas hydrate in an inner shelf well (Hammerhead 2) imply that permafrost may once have extended across much of the shelf offshore Camden Bay.
    Description: 2017-05-04
    Keywords: Permafrost ; Arctic Ocean ; Climate change ; Borehole logging ; Gas hydrates
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  • 8
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    Interactions between land use change and carbon cycle feedbacks (2017)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 31 (2017): 96–113, doi:10.1002/2016GB005374.
    Description: Using the Community Earth System Model, we explore the role of human land use and land cover change (LULCC) in modifying the terrestrial carbon budget in simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, extended to year 2300. Overall, conversion of land (e.g., from forest to croplands via deforestation) results in a model-estimated, cumulative carbon loss of 490 Pg C between 1850 and 2300, larger than the 230 Pg C loss of carbon caused by climate change over this same interval. The LULCC carbon loss is a combination of a direct loss at the time of conversion and an indirect loss from the reduction of potential terrestrial carbon sinks. Approximately 40% of the carbon loss associated with LULCC in the simulations arises from direct human modification of the land surface; the remaining 60% is an indirect consequence of the loss of potential natural carbon sinks. Because of the multicentury carbon cycle legacy of current land use decisions, a globally averaged amplification factor of 2.6 must be applied to 2015 land use carbon losses to adjust for indirect effects. This estimate is 30% higher when considering the carbon cycle evolution after 2100. Most of the terrestrial uptake of anthropogenic carbon in the model occurs from the influence of rising atmospheric CO2 on photosynthesis in trees, and thus, model-projected carbon feedbacks are especially sensitive to deforestation.
    Description: National Science Foundation Grant Numbers: AGS 1049033, CCF-1522054
    Description: 2017-07-23
    Keywords: Carbon cycle ; Climate change ; Land use and land cover change ; Earth system models
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  • 9
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    Relevance of carbon stocks of marine sediments for national greenhouse gas inventories of maritime nations (2017)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Carbon Balance and Management 12 (2017): 10, doi:10.1186/s13021-017-0077-x.
    Description: Determining national carbon stocks is essential in the framework of ongoing climate change mitigation actions. Presently, assessment of carbon stocks in the context of greenhouse gas (GHG)-reporting on a nation-by-nation basis focuses on the terrestrial realm, i.e., carbon held in living plant biomass and soils, and on potential changes in these stocks in response to anthropogenic activities. However, while the ocean and underlying sediments store substantial quantities of carbon, this pool is presently not considered in the context of national inventories. The ongoing disturbances to both terrestrial and marine ecosystems as a consequence of food production, pollution, climate change and other factors, as well as alteration of linkages and C-exchange between continental and oceanic realms, highlight the need for a better understanding of the quantity and vulnerability of carbon stocks in both systems. We present a preliminary comparison of the stocks of organic carbon held in continental margin sediments within the Exclusive Economic Zone of maritime nations with those in their soils. Our study focuses on Namibia, where there is a wealth of marine sediment data, and draws comparisons with sediment data from two other countries with different characteristics, which are Pakistan and the United Kingdom. Results indicate that marine sediment carbon stocks in maritime nations can be similar in magnitude to those of soils. Therefore, if human activities in these areas are managed, carbon stocks in the oceanic realm—particularly over continental margins—could be considered as part of national GHG inventories. This study shows that marine sediment organic carbon stocks can be equal in size or exceed terrestrial carbon stocks of maritime nations. This provides motivation both for improved assessment of sedimentary carbon inventories and for reevaluation of the way that carbon stocks are assessed and valued. The latter carries potential implications for the management of human activities on coastal environments and for their GHG inventories.
    Description: We acknowledge research support from ETH Zurich and the Swiss National Science Foundation.
    Keywords: Carbon stocks ; Sediments ; Oceans ; Climate change ; Exclusive Economic Zone ; Carbon inventory
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  • 10
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    Vulnerability of the Bay of Bengal to Ocean Acidification. (2017)
    IUCN, International Union for Conservation of Nature, Bangladesh Country Office | Dhaka, Bangladesh
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-19
    Description: Fossil-fuel combustion releases carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, leading to a warmer climate. Increasing atmospheric CO2 is changing the global ocean’s chemistry, as one-fourth of the anthropogenic CO2 is absorbed by the ocean. In addition, ocean absorbs CO2 from the respiration and breakdown of dead organic matter. When CO2 dissolves in seawater, it forms carbonic acid, decreasing both ocean pH and the concentration of the carbonate ion. The historical trends analysis showed an increasing water temperature with a decreasing pH levels over the period which may lead substantial effect on the biodiversity of the Bay of Bengal. The Institute of Marine Sciences and Fisheries (IMSF) in Chittagong University have been contributed in research and data generation from the coastal and marine ecosystems of Bangladesh. In addition, Bangladesh Navy, Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority and Coast Guard have been significantly contributed in hydrographical data collection and monitoring of the shelf water of Bangladesh in the Bay of Bengal. Ocean acidification could affect marine
    Description: Published
    Keywords: Ocean acidification ; Carbon dioxide ; Climate change ; CO2
    Repository Name: AquaDocs
    Type: Report , Refereed
    Format: vi + 55pp.
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  • 11
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    Global ocean vertical velocity from a dynamically consistent ocean state estimate (2017)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122 (2017): 8208–8224, doi:10.1002/2017JC012985.
    Description: Estimates of the global ocean vertical velocities (Eulerian, eddy-induced, and residual) from a dynamically consistent and data-constrained ocean state estimate are presented and analyzed. Conventional patterns of vertical velocity, Ekman pumping, appear in the upper ocean, with topographic dominance at depth. Intense and vertically coherent upwelling and downwelling occur in the Southern Ocean, which are likely due to the interaction of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and large-scale topographic features and are generally canceled out in the conventional zonally averaged results. These “elevators” at high latitudes connect the upper to the deep and abyssal oceans and working together with isopycnal mixing are likely a mechanism, in addition to the formation of deep and abyssal waters, for fast responses of the deep and abyssal oceans to the changing climate. Also, Eulerian and parameterized eddy-induced components are of opposite signs in numerous regions around the global ocean, particularly in the ocean interior away from surface and bottom. Nevertheless, residual vertical velocity is primarily determined by the Eulerian component, and related to winds and large-scale topographic features. The current estimates of vertical velocities can serve as a useful reference for investigating the vertical exchange of ocean properties and tracers, and its complex spatial structure ultimately permits regional tests of basic oceanographic concepts such as Sverdrup balance and coastal upwelling/downwelling.
    Description: National Science Foundation Grant Numbers: OCE-1736633 , OCE-1534618 , OCE-0961713; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Grant Number: NA10OAR4310135
    Description: 2018-04-27
    Keywords: Vertical velocity ; Vertical transport ; Vertical exchange ; Ocean state estimate ; Climate change ; Southern Ocean
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  • 12
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    Ecosystem responses to climate change at a Low Arctic and a High Arctic long-term research site (2017)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ambio 46, Supple. 1 (2017): 160-173, doi:10.1007/s13280-016-0870-x.
    Description: Long-term measurements of ecological effects of warming are often not statistically significant because of annual variability or signal noise. These are reduced in indicators that filter or reduce the noise around the signal and allow effects of climate warming to emerge. In this way, certain indicators act as medium pass filters integrating the signal over years-to-decades. In the Alaskan Arctic, the 25-year record of warming of air temperature revealed no significant trend, yet environmental and ecological changes prove that warming is affecting the ecosystem. The useful indicators are deep permafrost temperatures, vegetation and shrub biomass, satellite measures of canopy reflectance (NDVI), and chemical measures of soil weathering. In contrast, the 18-year record in the Greenland Arctic revealed an extremely high summer air-warming of 1.3°C/decade; the cover of some plant species increased while the cover of others decreased. Useful indicators of change are NDVI and the active layer thickness.
    Description: The Toolik research was supported in part by NSF Grants DEB 0207150, DEB 1026843, ARC 1107701, and ARC 1504006.
    Keywords: Alaska Toolik ; Climate change ; Ecological effects ; Greenland Zackenberg ; Medium pass filter ; Vegetation
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  • 13
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    Spring plankton dynamics in the Eastern Bering Sea, 1971–2050 : mechanisms of interannual variability diagnosed with a numerical model (2016)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 121 (2016): 1476–1501, doi:10.1002/2015JC011449.
    Description: A new planktonic ecosystem model was constructed for the Eastern Bering Sea based on observations from the 2007–2010 BEST/BSIERP (Bering Ecosystem Study/Bering Sea Integrated Ecosystem Research Program) field program. When run with forcing from a data-assimilative ice-ocean hindcast of 1971–2012, the model performs well against observations of spring bloom time evolution (phytoplankton and microzooplankton biomass, growth and grazing rates, and ratios among new, regenerated, and export production). On the southern middle shelf (57°N, station M2), the model replicates the generally inverse relationship between ice-retreat timing and spring bloom timing known from observations, and the simpler direct relationship between the two that has been observed on the northern middle shelf (62°N, station M8). The relationship between simulated mean primary production and mean temperature in spring (15 February to 15 July) is generally positive, although this was found to be an indirect relationship which does not continue to apply across a future projection of temperature and ice cover in the 2040s. At M2, the leading direct controls on total spring primary production are found to be advective and turbulent nutrient supply, suggesting that mesoscale, wind-driven processes—advective transport and storminess—may be crucial to long-term trends in spring primary production in the southeastern Bering Sea, with temperature and ice cover playing only indirect roles. Sensitivity experiments suggest that direct dependence of planktonic growth and metabolic rates on temperature is less significant overall than the other drivers correlated with temperature described above.
    Description: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation through grants ARC-1107187, ARC-1107303, and ARC-1107588, for BEST Synthesis, and PLR-1417365.
    Description: 2016-08-20
    Keywords: Phytoplankton bloom ; Climate change ; Bering Sea ; Microzooplankton ; Ecosystem model ; Phenology
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  • 14
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    Early ice retreat and ocean warming may induce copepod biogeographic boundary shifts in the Arctic Ocean (2016)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 121 (2016): 6137-6158, doi:10.1002/2016JC011784.
    Description: Early ice retreat and ocean warming are changing various facets of the Arctic marine ecosystem, including the biogeographic distribution of marine organisms. Here an endemic copepod species, Calanus glacialis, was used as a model organism, to understand how and why Arctic marine environmental changes may induce biogeographic boundary shifts. A copepod individual-based model was coupled to an ice-ocean-ecosystem model to simulate temperature- and food-dependent copepod life history development. Numerical experiments were conducted for two contrasting years: a relatively cold and normal sea ice year (2001) and a well-known warm year with early ice retreat (2007). Model results agreed with commonly known biogeographic distributions of C. glacialis, which is a shelf/slope species and cannot colonize the vast majority of the central Arctic basins. Individuals along the northern boundaries of this species' distribution were most susceptible to reproduction timing and early food availability (released sea ice algae). In the Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian, and Laptev Seas where severe ocean warming and loss of sea ice occurred in summer 2007, relatively early ice retreat, elevated ocean temperature (about 1–2°C higher than 2001), increased phytoplankton food, and prolonged growth season created favorable conditions for C. glacialis development and caused a remarkable poleward expansion of its distribution. From a pan-Arctic perspective, despite the great heterogeneity in the temperature and food regimes, common biogeographic zones were identified from model simulations, thus allowing a better characterization of habitats and prediction of potential future biogeographic boundary shifts.
    Description: National Science Foundation Polar Programs Grant Number: (PLR-1417677, PLR-1417339, and PLR-1416920)
    Description: 2017-02-20
    Keywords: Arctic Ocean ; Marine ecosystem ; Climate change ; Biogeography ; Individual-based model ; C. glacialis
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 15
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    Climate forcing of unprecedented intense-hurricane activity in the last 2000 years (2015)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Earth's Future 3 (2015): 49–65, doi:10.1002/2014EF000274.
    Description: How climate controls hurricane variability has critical implications for society is not well understood. In part, our understanding is hampered by the short and incomplete observational hurricane record. Here we present a synthesis of intense-hurricane activity from the western North Atlantic over the past two millennia, which is supported by a new, exceptionally well-resolved record from Salt Pond, Massachusetts (USA). At Salt Pond, three coarse grained event beds deposited in the historical interval are consistent with severe hurricanes in 1991 (Bob), 1675, and 1635 C.E., and provide modern analogs for 32 other prehistoric event beds. Two intervals of heightened frequency of event bed deposition between 1400 and 1675 C.E. (10 events) and 150 and 1150 C.E. (23 events), represent the local expression of coherent regional patterns in intense-hurricane–induced event beds. Our synthesis indicates that much of the western North Atlantic appears to have been active between 250 and 1150 C.E., with high levels of activity persisting in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico until 1400 C.E. This interval was one with relatively warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the main development region (MDR). A shift in activity to the North American east coast occurred ca. 1400 C.E., with more frequent severe hurricane strikes recorded from The Bahamas to New England between 1400 and 1675 C.E. A warm SST anomaly along the western North Atlantic, rather than within the MDR, likely contributed to the later active interval being restricted to the east coast.
    Description: Funding was provided by US National Science Foundation (awards 0903020 and 1356708), the Risk Prediction Initiative at the Bermuda Institute for Ocean Sciences (BIOS), US Department of Energy National Institute for Climate Change Research, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (award NA11OAR431010), and the Dalio Explore Fund.
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones ; Climate change ; Holocene ; Common era ; Sea surface temperature
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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    The role of atmospheric forcing versus ocean advection during the extreme warming of the Northeast U.S. continental shelf in 2012 (2015)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 120 (2015): 4324–4339, doi:10.1002/2014JC010547.
    Description: In the coastal ocean off the Northeast U.S., the sea surface temperature (SST) in the first half of 2012 was the highest on the record for the past roughly 150 years of recorded observations. The underlying dynamical processes responsible for this extreme event are examined using a numerical model, and the relative contributions of air-sea heat flux versus lateral ocean advective heat flux are quantified. The model accurately reproduces the observed vertical structure and the spatiotemporal characteristics of the thermohaline condition of the Gulf of Maine and the Middle Atlantic Bight waters during the anomalous warming period. Analysis of the model results show that the warming event was primarily driven by the anomalous air-sea heat flux, while the smaller contribution by the ocean advection worked against this flux by acting to cool the shelf. The anomalous air-sea heat flux exhibited a shelf-wide coherence, consistent with the shelf-wide warming pattern, while the ocean advective heat flux was dominated by localized, relatively smaller-scale processes. The anomalous cooling due to advection primarily resulted from the along-shelf heat flux divergence in the Gulf of Maine, while in the Middle Atlantic Bight the advective contribution from the along-shelf and cross-shelf heat flux divergences was comparable. The modeling results confirm the conclusion of the recent analysis of in situ data by Chen et al. (2014a) that the changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the winter of 2011–2012 primarily caused the extreme warm anomaly in the spring of 2012. The effect of along-shelf or cross-shelf ocean advection on the warm anomalies from either the Scotian Shelf or adjacent continental slope was secondary.
    Description: K.C. was supported by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Postdoctoral Scholar program, the Coastal Ocean Institute, and the National Science Foundation (NSF) under grant OCE-1435602. G.G.G. was supported by NSF grants OCE-1435602 and OCE-1129125. Y.-O.K. was supported by the NSF grant OCE-1435602. W.G.Z. was supported by the NSF grant OCE-1129125.
    Description: 2015-12-15
    Keywords: Extreme temperature ; Heat budget ; Northeast U.S. coastal ocean ; Numerical modeling ; Air-sea interaction ; Climate change
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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    Climate modulates internal wave activity in the Northern South China Sea (2015)
    John Wiley & Sons
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 42 (2015): 831–838, doi:10.1002/2014GL062522.
    Description: Internal waves (IWs) generated in the Luzon Strait propagate into the Northern South China Sea (NSCS), enhancing biological productivity and affecting coral reefs by modulating nutrient concentrations and temperature. Here we use a state-of-the-art ocean data assimilation system to reconstruct water column stratification in the Luzon Strait as a proxy for IW activity in the NSCS and diagnose mechanisms for its variability. Interannual variability of stratification is driven by intrusions of the Kuroshio Current into the Luzon Strait and freshwater fluxes associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Warming in the upper 100 m of the ocean caused a trend of increasing IW activity since 1900, consistent with global climate model experiments that show stratification in the Luzon Strait increases in response to radiative forcing. IW activity is expected to increase in the NSCS through the 21st century, with implications for mitigating climate change impacts on coastal ecosystems.
    Description: This work was supported by NSF award 1220529 to Anne Cohen, by the Academia Sinica (Taiwan) through a thematic project grant to G.T.F.W. and Anne Cohen, by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation and the WHOI Oceans and Climate Change Institute/Moltz Fellowship through awards to K.B.K., and by an NSF Graduate Research Fellowship to T.M.D.
    Description: 2015-08-10
    Keywords: Internal waves ; Climate change ; Coral reefs
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 18
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Responses of soil microarthropods to changes in soil water availability in tallgrass prairie (1999)
    Springer
    Biology and fertility of soils 29 (1999), S. 207-217 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0789
    Keywords: Key words Acari ; Climate change ; Grassland soils ; Soil microarthropods ; Soil water content
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract  Changes in precipitation and soil water availability predicted to accompany global climate change would impact grasslands, where many ecosystem processes are influenced by water availability. Soil biota, including microarthropods, also are affected by soil water content, although little is known about how climate change might affect their abundance and distribution. The goal of this study was to examine soil microarthropod responses to altered soil water availability in tallgrass prairie ecosystems. Two separate experiments were done. The first utilized control and irrigated plots along a topographic gradient to examine the effects of soil water content on microarthropod densities. Microarthropods, mainly Acari, were significantly less abundant in irrigated plots and were generally less abundant at the wetter lowland sites. The second study utilized reciprocal core transplants across an east-west regional precipitation gradient. Large, intact cores were transplanted between a more mesic tallgrass site (Konza Prairie) and a more arid mixed-grass site (Hays) to determine the effects of different soil water regimes on microarthropod abundance and vertical distribution. Data from non-transplanted cores indicated greater total microarthropod densities at the drier Hays site, relative to the wetter Konza Prairie site. Data from the transplanted cores indicated significant effects of location on Acari densities in cores originating from Hays, with higher densities in cores remaining at Hays, relative to those transplanted to Konza. Acari densities in cores originating from Konza were not affected by location; however, oribatid mite densities generally were greater in cores remaining at Konza Prairie. These results confirm the importance of soil water content in affecting microarthropod densities and distributions in grasslands, and suggest complex, non-linear responses to changes in water availability.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s003740050546
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    Long-term phyto-, ornitho- and ichthyophenological time-series analyses in Estonia (1999)
    Springer
    International journal of biometeorology 42 (1999), S. 119-123 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1254
    Keywords: Key words Phenology ; Climate change ; Time series
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Abstract  This study analyzes a long-term phenological time series for the impact assessment of climate changes on Estonian nature and for the methodological study of the possible limitations of using phenological time series for climate trend analyses. These limiting factors can influence the results of studies more than the real impact of climate changes, which may have a much smaller numeric value. The 132-year series of the arrival of the skylark (Alauda arvensis) and the white wagtail (Motacilla alba), the 78-year series of the blossoming of the wood anemone (Anemone nemorosa), the bird cherry (Padus racemosa), apple trees (Malus domestica) and lilacs (Syringa vulgaris), and the 44-year series of the spawning of pike (Esox lucius) and bream (Abramis brama) were studied at three selected observation points in Estonia. The study of the phenological time series shows that Estonian springs have, on the basis of the database, advanced 8 days on average over the last 80-year period; the last 40-year period has warmed even faster.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s004840050094
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  • 20
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    Simulating temperature-dependent ecological processes at the sub-continental scale: male gypsy moth flight phenology as an example (1999)
    Springer
    International journal of biometeorology 42 (1999), S. 146-152 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1254
    Keywords: Key words Landscape ecology ; Area-wide management ; Modelling ; Interpolation ; Kriging ; Regression ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Abstract  We simulated male gypsy moth flight phenology for the location of 1371 weather stations east of 100° W longitude and north of 35° N latitude in North America. The output of these simulations, based on average weather conditions from 1961 to 1990, was submitted to two map-interpolation methods: multiple regression and universal kriging. Multiple regression was found to be as accurate as universal kriging and demands less computing power. A map of the date of peak male gypsy moth flight was generated by universal kriging. This map itself constitutes a useful pest-management planning tool; in addition, the map delineates the potential range of the gypsy moth based on its seasonality at the northern edge of its current distribution in eastern North America. The simulation and map-interpolation methods described in this paper thus constitute an interesting approach to the study and monitoring of the ecological impacts of climate change and shifts in land-use patterns at the sub-continental level.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s004840050098
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  • 21
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    Growth and reproduction of Antarctic vascular plants in response to warming and UV radiation reductions in the field (1999)
    Springer
    Oecologia 119 (1999), S. 24-35 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Key words Antarctica ; Climate change ; Colobanthus quitensis ; Deschampsia antarctica ; Ozone depletion
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Along the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula springtime ozone depletion events can lead to a two-fold increase in biologically effective UV-B radiation (UV-BBE) and summer air temperatures have risen ≈1.5°C during the past 50 years. We manipulated levels of UV radiation and temperature around Colobanthus quitensis (a cushion-forming plant, Caryophyllaceae) and Deschampsia antarctica (a tussock grass) along the Peninsula near Palmer Station for two field seasons. Ambient levels of UV were manipulated by placing filters that either transmitted UV (filter control), absorbed UV-B (reducing diurnal levels of UV-BBE by about 82%), or absorbed both UV-B and UV-A (reducing UV-BBE and UV-ABE by about 88 and 78%, respectively) on frames over naturally growing plants from November to March. Half the filters of each material completely surrounded the frames and raised diurnal and diel air temperatures around plants by an average of 2.3°C and 1.3°C, respectively. Reducing UV or warming had no effect on leaf concentrations of soluble UV-B absorbing compounds, UV-B absorbing surface waxes or chlorophylls. Warming had few effects on growth of either species over the first season. However, over the second field season warming improved growth of C. quitensis, leading to a 50% increase in leaf production (P 〈 0.10), a 26% increase in shoot production, and a 6% increase in foliar cover. In contrast, warming reduced growth of D. antarctica, leading to a 20% decline in leaf length, a 17% decline in leaf production (P 〈 0.10), and a 5% decline in foliar cover. Warming improved sexual reproduction in both species, primarily through faster development of reproductive structures and greater production of heavier seeds. Over the second field season, the percentage of reproductive structures that had reached the most developed (seed) stage in C. quitensis and D. antarctica was 20% and 15% higher, respectively, under warming. Capsules of C. quitensis produced 45% more seeds under warming and these seeds were 11% heavier. Growth of D. antarctica was improved when UV was reduced and these effects appeared to be cumulative over field seasons. Over the second season, tillers produced 55% more leaves and these leaves were 32% longer when UV-B was reduced. Tillers produced 137% more leaves that were 67% longer when both UV-B and UV-A were reduced. The effects of UV reduction were not as pronounced on C. quitensis, although over the second season cushions tended to be 17% larger and produce 21% more branches when UV-B was reduced, and tended to be 27% larger and produce 38% more branches when both UV-B and UV-A were reduced (P 〈 0.10). Few interactions were found between UV reduction and warming, although in the absence of warming, reducing UV led to slower development of reproductive structures in both species. The effects of warming and UV reduction were species specific and were often cumulative over the two field seasons, emphasizing the importance of long-term field manipulations in predicting the impacts of climate change.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s004420050757
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  • 22
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    Performance of moth larvae on birch in relation to altitude, climate, host quality and parasitoids (1999)
    Springer
    Oecologia 120 (1999), S. 92-101 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Key wordsEpirrita autumnata ; Lepidoptera: Geometridae ; Betula pubescens ssp. czrepanovii ; Insect outbreaks ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract We studied topographical and year-to-year variation in the performance (pupal weights, survival) and larval parasitism of Epirrita autumnata larvae feeding on mountain birch in northernmost Finland in 1993–1996. We found differences in both food plant quality and parasitism between sites ranging from 80 m to 320 m above sea level. Variation in food plant quality had particularly marked effects on larval survival. The advanced phenology of the birches in relation to the start of the larval period reduced pupal weights. Parasitism rates were different between years and between sites. The clearest site differences were in the proportions of different parasitoid species: Eulophus larvarum was most abundant at the lowest-altitude sites, and Cotesia jucunda at the highest. Differences in the performance of E. autumnata were related to temperature conditions: at higher temperatures, survival and the egg production index were lower, and larval parasitism was higher than at lower temperatures. The higher parasitism at higher temperatures was probably due to greater parasitoid activity during warmer days. In the comparison of different sources of spatial and annual variation in the performance of E. autumnata, the most important factor appeared to be egg mortality related to minimum winter temperature, followed by parasitism and, finally, the variation in food plant quality. If, as predicted, the climate gradually warms up, the effects of warmer summers on the outbreaks of E. autumnata suggest a decrease in outbreak intensity.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s004420050837
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  • 23
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Plant community dynamics in a calcareous grassland under climate change manipulations (1999)
    Springer
    Plant ecology 143 (1999), S. 29-37 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-5052
    Keywords: Climate change ; Life-history traits ; Plant succession ; Seedling recruitment ; Warming ; Water relations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract This study investigates the effects of field manipulations of local climate to determine the potential impact of climate change on plant community dynamics in a calcareous grassland. The experimental site is located in a grassland at the Wytham estate, Oxfordshire, UK. The one hectare study area is within a 10 ha abandoned arable field on Jurassic corallian limestone. Two climate change scenarios were used: warmer winters with increased summer rainfall and warmer winters with summer drought. Plant cover and species richness were significantly increased in plots receiving supplemented summer rainfall, while the amount of litter was significantly reduced. Litter formation was significantly increased by winter warming and drought. The responses of the plant community to the climate manipulations were related to the life-history attributes of the dominant species. Seedling recruitment was limited by microsite availability, which also varied in the different climate manipulations. The results are discussed in terms of successional dynamics. They suggest that warmer winters may delay succession, as gap formation in the sward will provide sites for colonisation of annuals, thereby enabling their persistence in the sward. Under wetter conditions during summer, perennial grasses tend to close the sward, thereby inhibiting the establishment of later successional species.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009812024996
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    Late-glacial and Holocene vegetation history and dynamics as shown by pollen and plant macrofossil analyses in annually laminated sediments from Soppensee, central Switzerland (1999)
    Springer
    Vegetation history and archaeobotany 8 (1999), S. 165-184 
    Details
    ISSN: 1617-6278
    Keywords: Vegetation dynamics ; Palynology ; Macroremains ; Plant diversity ; Laminated sediments ; Climate change ; Switzerland
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Archaeology , Biology
    Notes: Abstract The palynostratigraphy of two sediment cores from Soppensee, Central Switzerland (596 m asl) was correlated with nine regional pollen assemblage zones defined for the Swiss Plateau. This biostratigraphy shows that the sedimentary record of Soppensee includes the last 15 000 years, i.e. the entire Late-glacial and Holocene environmental history. The vegetation history of the Soppensee catchment was inferred by pollen and plant-macrofossil analyses on three different cores taken in the deepest part of the lake basin (27 m). On the basis of a high-resolution varve and calibrated radiocarbonchronology it was possible to estimate pollen accumulation rates, which together with the pollen percentage data, formed the basis for the interpretation of the past vegetation dynamics. The basal sediment dates back to the last glacial. After reforestation with juniper and birch at ca. 12 700 B.P., the vegetation changed at around 12 000 B.P. to a pine-birch woodland and at the onset of the Holocene to a mixed deciduous forest. At ca. 7000 B.P., fir expanded and dominated the vegetation with beech becoming predominant at ca. 50014C-years later until sometime during the Iron Age. Large-scale deforestation, especially during the Middle Ages, altered the vegetation cover drastically. During the Late-glacial period two distinct regressive phases in vegetation development are demonstrated, namely, the Aegelsee oscillation (equivalent to the Older Dryas biozone) and the Younger Dryas biozone. No unambiguous evidence for Holocene climatic change was detected at Soppensee. Human presence is indicated by early cereal pollen and distinct pulses of forest clearance as a result of human activity can be observed from the Neolithic period onwards.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02342718
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    Palaeoecological evidence for Holocene vegetation, climate and land-use change in the low Don basin and Kalmuk area, southern Russia (1999)
    Springer
    Vegetation history and archaeobotany 8 (1999), S. 233-246 
    Details
    ISSN: 1617-6278
    Keywords: Pollen analysis ; Holocene ; Climate change ; Pinus sylvestris ; Steppe belt ; Southern Russia
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Archaeology , Biology
    Notes: Abstract Two14C-dated pollen profiles from mires in the steppe belt of southern Russia are presented. On the basis of these and data from earlier investigations, the Holocene forest history of the southern part of Russia and Ukraine is reconstructed. The steppe belt is very sensitive to climatic oscillations and, in particular, to changes in evapotranspiration. The most favourable climate occurred between 6000 and 4500 B.P. (6800–5200 cal. B.P.), when forest attained its maximum extent in the steppe belt. The period 4500–3500 B.P. (5200–3800 cal. B.P.) was characterised by drier climate with the most arid phase occurring between 4200–3700 B.P. (4700–4000 cal. B.P.). During arid phases, the area under forest and also peat accumulation rates declined. Subsequently, a number of less pronounced climatic oscillations occurred such as in the period 3400/3300−2800 B.P. (3600/3500−2900 cal. B.P.) when there was a return to more humid conditions. During the last 2500 years, the vegetation cover of the steppe belt in southern Russia and Ukraine took on its present-day aspect. On the one hand, there is close correlation between the Holocene vegetation history of southern Russia and Ukraine and, on the other hand, the steppe belt of Kazakhstan and transgressions in the Caspian sea. Human impact on the natural vegetation became important from the Bronze Age onwards (after 4500 B.P.; 5200 cal. B.P.). Particular attention is given to the history of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), which had a much wider distribution in the southern part of eastern Europe in the early Holocene. The reduction in range during recent millennia has come about as a result of the combined effects of both climatic deterioration and increased human impact.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01291776
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  • 26
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    Mitigation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations by increased carbon sequestration in the soil (1998)
    Springer
    Biology and fertility of soils 27 (1998), S. 230-235 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0789
    Keywords: Key words Carbon dioxide ; Carbon sequestration ; Climate change ; Greenhouse gases ; Mitigation options
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract  The International Panel on Climate Change distinguished three main options for the mitigation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations by the agricultural sector: (1) reduction of agriculture-related emissions, (2) creation and strengthening of C sinks in the soil, and (3) production of biofuels to replace fossil fuels. Options for sustained sequestration of C in the soil through adapted management of land resources are reviewed in the context of the ongoing discussion on the need to reduce greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. Enhanced sequestration of atmospheric CO2 in the soil, ultimately as stable humus, may well prove a more lasting solution than (temporarily) sequestering CO2 in the standing biomass through reforestation and afforestation. Such actions will also help to reverse processes of land degradation, thus contributing to sustained food productivity and security for the people in the regions concerned.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s003740050425
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    Analysis of soil-vegetation systems' sensitivity to changes of climate-dependent carbon turnover parameters (1998)
    Springer
    Biology and fertility of soils 27 (1998), S. 263-266 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0789
    Keywords: Key words Soil organic matter ; Climate change ; Modelling ; Sensitivity analysis ; Feedback
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract  The nonlinear model of the carbon cycle in soils (NAMSOM) was used to analyze the sensitivity of soil organic matter levels to variations in carbon turnover parameters. We were able to predict the sensitivity of soil organic matter levels to variations of climate-dependent carbon turnover parameters, which allowed us to compare the sensitivity of soil organic matter levels to net primary productivity of plant communities and plant debris decomposition rate constants across the range of soils in the European part of Russia. The results indicate that meadow steppes show the lowest sensitivity to variations of these parameters. In passing from meadow steppes to the northern taiga and to semideserts, the sensitivity increases. In general, soil organic matter levels of boreal forest ecosystems are about 2–3 times more sensitive to input and decomposition of plant debris than to decomposition of humus. In subboreal grassland ecosystems the sensitivity to humus decomposition increases and becomes closer to the degree of sensitivity shown by soil organic matter levels to variations of productivity and decomposition of plant debris. The proposed method may be useful for predicting the response of ecosystems to climatic change.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s003740050431
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  • 28
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    Enzymic involvement in the biogeochemical responses of a Welsh peatland to a rainfall enhancement manipulation (1998)
    Springer
    Biology and fertility of soils 27 (1998), S. 173-178 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-0789
    Keywords: Key words Wetland ; Peat ; Enzyme ; Climate change ; Increased rainfall
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract  Microbial enzyme activities were followed during a field-based experimental simulation of the effects of higher rainfall in a Welsh peatland. The treatment did not significantly affect the activities of the carbon cycling enzymes, β-glucosidase, esterase or xylosidase. In contrast, the activity of the enzyme sulphatase decreased by 44% (P〈0.001) in response to the wetter conditions. The manipulation suggests that should climate change cause conditions to become wetter in peatlands, then (with the exception of sulphatase) current levels of wetness may be sufficient to limit decomposition processes, and thus any further increase in wetness is unlikely to induce a further decrease in decomposition rates. Correlations were found between the esterase activity and both nitrous oxide flux (r=–0.44, P〈0.05), and methane release (r=0.53, P〈0.01). Likewise, there was a correlation between xylosidase activity and both carbon dioxide emission (r=0.52, P〈0.01) and aluminium concentration (r=0.58, P〈0.01). All of the enzymes correlated positively with dissolved organic carbon (range r=0.53, P〈0.01 sulphatase to r=0.61, P〈0.001 glucosidase). Together, the correlations lend support to recent hypotheses suggesting that enzymes exert an influence over wetland biogeochemical properties.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s003740050417
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    Impact of long-term drought on xylem embolism and growth in Pinus halepensis Mill. (1998)
    Springer
    Trees 12 (1998), S. 187-195 
    Details
    ISSN: 0931-1890
    Keywords: Key words Aleppo pine ; Climate change ; Water stress ; Cavitation ; Transpiration
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract  The present study was carried out to elucidate the response mechanisms of 50-year-old Pinus halepensis Mill. trees to a long-term and severe drought. The amount of water available to trees was artificially restricted for 12 months by covering the soil with a plastic roof. Over the short term a direct and rapid impact of drought was evident on the water relations and gas exchanges of trees: as the soil dried out in the Spring, there was a concurrent decrease of predawn water potential; transpiration was strongly reduced by stomatal closure. Seasonal changes in the water volume fractions of twig and stem xylem were observed and interpreted as the result of cavitation and refilling in the xylem. When droughted trees recovered to a more favourable water status, refilling of embolized xylem was observed; twig predawn water potentials were still negative in the period when the embolism was reversed in the twig xylem. A few months after the removal of the covering, no differences in whole plant hydraulic resistance were observed between droughted and control trees. Needle and shoot elongation and stem radial growth were considerably reduced in droughted trees; no strategy of trees to allocate carbon preferentially to the stem conducting tissues was apparent throughout the experiment. An after-effect of the drought on growth was observed.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/PL00009709
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    Changes in phenology of the locust tree (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) in Hungary (1998)
    Springer
    International journal of biometeorology 41 (1998), S. 155-160 
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    ISSN: 1432-1254
    Keywords: Key words Phenology ; Robinia pseudoacacia L. ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Abstract  Intense research is being carried out on climate variability and change and the estimation and detection of anthropogenic effects. In addition to statistical methods, the use of plants, as biological indicators is becoming more popular as they are sensitive to environmental conditions. In this article we compare maps of the flowering dates of the locust tree (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) for three different time intervals between 1851 and 1994. The maps revealed noticeable shifts of dates, of approximately 3–8 days, towards earlier flowering. This change is related to the average temperature of spring (15 March–15 May), via a simple statistical model that is accurate enough to be able to quantify phenological changes and to calculate the corresponding warming. The model developed can estimate spring mean temperature using phenological data from R. pseudoacacia L. with an accuracy of 0.2° C. Estimates of mean temperature based on phenological changes are compared to climatic series. This comparison emphasizes the possibility of using R. pseudoacacia. L. as a bio-indicator. Estimates of temperature changes are also given.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s004840050069
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    Elevated CO2 ameliorates birch response to high temperature and frost stress: implications for modeling climate-induced geographic range shifts (1998)
    Springer
    Oecologia 114 (1998), S. 335-342 
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    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Key wordsBetula ; Carbon dioxide ; Climate change ; heat stress ; Freezing stress
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Despite predictions that both atmospheric CO2 concentrations and air temperature will rise together, very limited data are currently available to assess the possible interactive effects of these two global change factors on temperate forest tree species. Using yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis) as a model species, we studied how elevated CO2 (800 vs. 400 μl l−1) influences seedling growth and physiological responses to a 5°C increase in summer air temperatures (31/26 vs. 26/21°C day/night), and how both elevated CO2 and air temperature during the growing season influence seedling ability to survive freezing stress during the winter dormant season. Our results show that while increased temperature decreases seedling growth, temperature-induced growth reductions are significantly lower at elevated CO2 concentrations (43% vs. 73%). The amelioration of high-temperature stress was related to CO2-induced reductions in both whole-shoot dark respiration and transpiration. Our results also show that increased summer air temperature, and to a lesser degree CO2 concentration, make dormant winter buds less susceptible to freezing stress. We show the relevance of these results to models used to predict how climate change will influence future forest species distribution and productivity, without considering the direct or interactive effects of CO2.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s004420050455
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    Effects of climate and atmospheric CO2 partial pressure on the global distribution of C4 grasses: present, past, and future (1998)
    Springer
    Oecologia 114 (1998), S. 441-454 
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    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Key words Photosynthesis ; C4 ; Climate change ; CO2 ; Grassland
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract C4 photosynthetic physiologies exhibit fundamentally different responses to temperature and atmospheric CO2 partial pressures (pCO2) compared to the evolutionarily more primitive C3 type. All else being equal, C4 plants tend to be favored over C3 plants in warm humid climates and, conversely, C3 plants tend to be favored over C4 plants in cool climates. Empirical observations supported by a photosynthesis model predict the existence of a climatological crossover temperature above which C4 species have a carbon gain advantage and below which C3 species are favored. Model calculations and analysis of current plant distribution suggest that this pCO2-dependent crossover temperature is approximated by a mean temperature of 22°C for the warmest month at the current pCO2 (35 Pa). In addition to favorable temperatures, C4 plants require sufficient precipitation during the warm growing season. C4 plants which are predominantly graminoids of short stature can be competitively excluded by trees (nearly all C3 plants) – regardless of the photosynthetic superiority of the C4 pathway – in regions otherwise favorable for C4. To construct global maps of the distribution of C4 grasses for current, past and future climate scenarios, we make use of climatological data sets which provide estimates of the mean monthly temperature to classify the globe into areas which should favor C4 photosynthesis during at least 1 month of the year. This area is further screened by excluding areas where precipitation is 〈25 mm per month during the warm season and by selecting areas classified as grasslands (i.e., excluding areas dominated by woody vegetation) according to a global vegetation map. Using this approach, grasslands of the world are designated as C3, C4, and mixed under current climate and pCO2. Published floristic studies were used to test the accuracy of these predictions in many regions of the world, and agreement with observations was generally good. We then make use of this protocol to examine changes in the global abundance of C4 grasses in the past and the future using plausible estimates for the climates and pCO2. When pCO2 is lowered to pre-industrial levels, C4 grasses expanded their range into large areas now classified as C3 grasslands, especially in North America and Eurasia. During the last glacial maximum (∼18 ka BP) when the climate was cooler and pCO2 was about 20 Pa, our analysis predicts substantial expansion of C4 vegetation – particularly in Asia, despite cooler temperatures. Continued use of fossil fuels is expected to result in double the current pCO2 by sometime in the next century, with some associated climate warming. Our analysis predicts a substantial reduction in the area of C4 grasses under these conditions. These reductions from the past and into the future are based on greater stimulation of C3 photosynthetic efficiency by higher pCO2 than inhibition by higher temperatures. The predictions are testable through large-scale controlled growth studies and analysis of stable isotopes and other data from regions where large changes are predicted to have occurred.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s004420050468
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    The effect of winter temperatures on the timing of breeding activity in the common toad Bufo bufo (1998)
    Springer
    Oecologia 117 (1998), S. 469-475 
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    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Key words Common toad ; Winter temperatures ; Daylength ; Breeding migration ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract A 19-year study of a common toad population in south Dorset, UK, was carried out between 1980 and 1998. The daily arrival of sexually mature male and female toads at a breeding pond was recorded each year. The timing of the main arrival of toads at the breeding pond was highly correlated with the mean daily temperatures over the 40 days immediately preceding the main arrival. When the temperatures were higher than average, breeding occurred significantly earlier in the year than if they were either average or lower than average. During the study, the toad breeding seasons were early (2–13 February) in 5 years (1989, 1990, 1993, 1995, 1998), late (16–23 March) in 2 years (1986, 1996) and average (25 February–8 March) during the remaining 12 years. Evidence was found suggesting that common toads have a daylength threshold of about 9 h, below which the migration to the breeding pond does not occur. Evidence was also found indicating that common toads in southern England have a threshold temperature for activity of about 6°C and that the onset of breeding activity is highly correlated with the number of days during the 40 days prior to the main arrival at the breeding pond that were at or above this temperature. Predicting the start of the main breeding migration to a pond in any year may be possible by comparing the pattern of the 40-day running mean daily temperatures from 21 December the preceding year with those from previous years when the start of breeding activity is known. Although all five of the earliest recorded toad breeding years occurred during the last 10 years, and were associated with the occurrence of particularly mild winters, a significant trend towards earlier breeding in recent years compared with previous years was not found.
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    Development of black spruce growth forms at treeline (1998)
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    Plant ecology 138 (1998), S. 137-147 
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    ISSN: 1573-5052
    Keywords: Climate change ; Dendrochronology ; Forest tundra ; Picea mariana ; Stem analysis
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Most treeline populations in northeastern Canada are monospecific stands of black spruce (Picea mariana [Mill.] B.S.P.), a hardy, cold-tolerant species able to withstand harsh climatic conditions under different growth forms. In the forest tundra, black spruce thrives in protected areas and exhibits a normal arborescent growth form, but in exposed sites, upright stems are damaged above the snowpack by snow abrasion and wind. In this study, the development of damaged growth forms was examined in a moderately exposed habitat. Five developmental stages were identified and described using detailed stem analysis of 13 spruce trees. Four different types of damaged growth forms were identified according to variations in supra-nival (above snow) stem height and number. At the site scale, the age structure of supra-nival shoots, based on a larger sample of 256 stems, was unimodal, suggesting a synchronous development of the spruce stand in which 46% of the shoots were initiated during the 1960s and 1970s. Subfossil trunks on the ground were all depressed trees, indicating that the former vegetation was a krummholz, not a forest. This indicates the recent development of the small-tree stand above the snowpack, probably triggered by recent milder conditions associated with snowier winters in the last decades.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009756707596
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    Timing of deacclimation affects the ability to recover from simulated winter herbivory (1998)
    Springer
    Plant ecology 135 (1998), S. 9-12 
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    ISSN: 1573-5052
    Keywords: Climate change ; Phenology ; Regrowth ; Vaccinium ; Winter herbivory
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract The ability of Vaccinium myrtillus L. to recover from simulated winter herbivory has been investigated on different plants which had been exposed to three elevated temperatures (5 °C, 10 °C or 20 °C) for four weeks in a greenhouse environment. After herbivory, number and length of new aerial shoots and number of leaves/shoot increased faster in plants kept at 5 °C and 10 °C than in those kept at 20 °C. In the following autumn, however, only the shoot number differed between treatments, being greatest in plants of treatments at 5 °C and 10 °C and lowest at 20 °C and the outdoor control. Apparently the plants kept at 20 °C had already used their resources for growth before herbivory simulation, which reduced their recovery ability thereafter. In addition, the growing season was too short for the control plants to produce as many new shoots as the treatments. The results show that the recovery of V. myrtillus from winter herbivory is rapid if it occurs before growth has started. Hence the earlier onset of spring as a consequence of climate warming may not be fatal for the plant, unless the temperature increase triggers growth to start many months earlier than normal.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009784917648
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    Vegetation and climate changes during the last 21 000 years in S.W. Africa based on a marine pollen record (1998)
    Springer
    Vegetation history and archaeobotany 7 (1998), S. 127-140 
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    ISSN: 1617-6278
    Keywords: Marine pollen record ; S.W. Africa ; Climate change ; Human impact ; Late Pleistocene ; Holocene
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Archaeology , Biology
    Notes: Abstract A high resolution marine pollen record from site GeoB1023, west of the northern Namib desert provides data on vegetation and climate change for the last 21 ka at an average resolution of 185 y. Pollen and spores are mainly delivered to the site by the Cunene river and by surface and mid-tropospheric wind systems. The main pollen source areas are located between 13°S and 21°S, which includes the northern Namib desert and semi-desert, the Angola-northern Namibian highland, and the north-western Kalahari. The pollen spectra reflect environmental changes in the region. The last glacial maximum (LGM) was characterised by colder and more arid conditions than at present, when a vegetation with temperate elements such as Asteroideae, Ericaceae, and Restionaceae grew north of 21°S. At 17.5 ka cal. B.P., an amelioration both in temperature and humidity terminated the LGM but, in the northern Kalahari, mean annual rainfall in the interval 17.5-14.4 ka cal. B.P. was probably 100–150 mm lower than at present (400–500 mm/y). The Late-glacial to early Holocene transition includes two arid periods, i.e. 14.4–12.5 and 10.9–9.3 ka cal. B.P. The last part of the former period may be correlated with the Younger Dryas. The warmest and most humid period in the Holocene occurred between 6.3 and 4.8 ka cal. B.P. During the last 2000 years, human impact, as reflected by indications of deforestation, enhanced burning and overgrazing, progressively intensified.
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    "If You Don't Know How to Fix it, Please Stop Breaking it!" The Precautionary Principle and Climate Change (1997)
    Springer
    Foundations of science 2 (1997), S. 263-292 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-8471
    Keywords: Climate change ; Mitigation ; Greenhouse gas emission ; Control ; Precautionary principle ; Precaution ; Decision making ; Uncertainty ; Feedbacks
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Natural Sciences in General
    Notes: Abstract Taking precautions to prevent harm. Whether principe de précaution, Vorsorgeprinzip, føre-var prinsippet, or försiktighetsprincip, etc., the precautionary principle embodies the idea that public and private interests should act to prevent harm. Furthermore, the precautionary principle suggests that action should be taken to limit, regulate, or prevent potentially dangerous undertakings even in the absence of absolute scientific proof. Such measures also naturally entail taking economic costs into account. With the environmental disasters of the 1980s, the precautionary principle established itself as an operational concept. On the eve of the 1997 Climate Summit in Kyoto, precaution, as the precautionary principle is often referred to, has now become a key legal principle in environmental law, in general, and in current international climate negotiations, in particular, attempts to understand why. It examines in turn the natural affinity between the precautionary principle and climate change, reviews a series of issues which the principle raises, and discusses avenues which it opens paper, climate change fulfills the theoretical requirements set for the application of the precautionary principle. It comes as no surprise that the actual application of the precautionary principle in the context of climate change raises high political stakes. As a result, climate change science, in particular, and science, in general, is under the fire of politically-motivated scientific skeptics. Thus, by way of the counter-measures which must be put into effect, the precautionary principle calls for a greater sense of responsibility on the part of scientists and the public at large. Specifically, from scientists, it demands perseverance in rigor, excellence in communication, and committment to education. However, even if special efforts are made to implement the precautionary principle in the context of climate change, the success of climate change mitigation will constitute no test of the validity, the usefulness, or the efficiency of the precautionary principle. Indeed, the degree to which climate change mitigation succeeds only provides a measure of our kind's ability to manage responsibly the global commons which we inherited from our ancestors and which our generation enjoys, the global commons which we will pass on to today's children and to generations to come.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009619720589
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    A 12 000-year record of environmental change in the Lomond Hills, Fife, Scotland: Vegetational and climatic variability (1997)
    Springer
    Vegetation history and archaeobotany 6 (1997), S. 133-152 
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    ISSN: 1617-6278
    Keywords: Palynology ; Late-glacial ; Holocene ; Climate change ; Scotland
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Archaeology , Biology
    Notes: Abstract The Lomond Hills of Fife, an isolated upland area rising to over 500 m, provide an opportunity to investigate the effect of altitude on vegetation and climate in an area otherwise dominated by lower-lying land. The West Lomond site contains sediments of the Devensian Late-glacial period; they reveal a well-defined sequence of Bolling-Older Dryas-Allerod-Younger Dryas events, commencing ca. 12 190 radiocarbon years B.P. and a probable Amphi-Atlantic Oscillation between ca. 11 040 and 10 800 B.P. The Holocene record is constrained by low sediment input but does reveal a woodland presence at this altitude, dominated byBetula andCorylus. Size statistics forBetula pollen are presented and the implications of the vegetational and climatic record are discussed. The traditional view of a smooth progress towards more temperate conditions following the Younger Dryas is not supported; between 10 180 and 9120 B.P., three cooler periods are inferred, the earliest of which may belong to a terminal phase of the Younger Dryas. Comparative pollen ‘influx’ data strongly suggest thatQuercus,Ulmus andAlnus were not present locally. As a working hypothesis, it is suggested that the demise of woodland, from ca. 5950 B.P., was a result of exposure. Pollen indicative of human impact was probably derived from areas of lowland agricultural activity from ca. 5330 B.P. onwards.
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    Vegetation and climatic history of southwest Africa: A marine palynological record of the last 300,000 years (1997)
    Springer
    Vegetation history and archaeobotany 6 (1997), S. 117-131 
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    ISSN: 1617-6278
    Keywords: Marine palynology ; Vegetation history ; Climate change ; Ocean currents ; Southwest Africa
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Archaeology , Biology
    Notes: Abstract A continuous palynological record from the marine core GeoB1016-3 from the Angola Basin reveals the regional vegetation and climate history of the last 300 ka. Pollen and spores found at the studied site have their source areas in the different vegetation zones of the adjacent part of the West African continent. Those vegetation zones comprise tropical rain forest, coastal mangrove swamp, Miombo woodland, dry forest, Afromontane forest, desert and semi-desert. The main pollen transport agent is the southeast trade wind system. Ocean currents also partly play a role in transporting pollen and spores. During the interglacial periods, ocean currents also transported palynomorphs southward. During the glacial periods, increased trade winds are indicated by high influx of pollen and spores and high pollen percentages of Poaceae and taxa from desert and semidesert vegetations. Reconstruction of the geographical position of palaeo-vegetation zones shows that the northern boundary of the Namib Desert did not move north of 12°S during the last 300 ka. This implies that northward shifts of the Angola-Benguela Front did not pass the latitude of 12°S.
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    Regression model for generating time series of daily precipitation amounts for climate change impact studies (1996)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 10 (1996), S. 87-106 
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    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Climate change ; daily precipitation modelling ; generalized linear models ; iteratively reweighted least squares ; spline functions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The precipitation amounts on wet days at De Bilt (the Netherlands) are linked to temperature and surface air pressure through advanced regression techniques. Temperature is chosen as a covariate to use the model for generating synthetic time series of daily precipitation in a CO2 induced warmer climate. The precipitation-temperature dependence can partly be ascribed to the phenomenon that warmer air can contain more moisture. Spline functions are introduced to reproduce the non-monotonous change of the mean daily precipitation amount with temperature. Because the model is non-linear and the variance of the errors depends on the expected response, an iteratively reweighted least-squares technique is needed to estimate the regression coefficients. A representative rainfall sequence for the situation of a systematic temperature rise is obtained by multiplying the precipitation amounts in the observed record with a temperature dependent factor based on a fitted regression model. For a temperature change of 3°C (reasonable guess for a doubled CO2 climate according to the present-day general circulation models) this results in an increase in the annual average amount of 9% (20% in winter and 4% in summer). An extended model with both temperature and surface air pressure is presented which makes it possible to study the additional effects of a potential systematic change in surface air pressure on precipitation.
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    Accelerating ground warming in the Canadian Prairie provinces: Is it a result of global warming? (1996)
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 147 (1996), S. 1-24 
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    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Climate change ; ground warming ; permafrost ; heat flow
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The results of precision temperature logs made to depths of several hundred meters in some 80 wells in Western Canada, most of which are located in the Prairie Provinces, show evidence of warming at the ground surface in the 0.5 K to 3.5 K range (average=2.2±0.7 K, for 80 unevenly distributed sites). Modeling shows that this warming mostly pertains to this century and it has been most substantal in the last four decades if the “ramp” function of the linear increase of surface temperature is assumed. Using the “step function” model's increase of surface temperature (land clearing, forest fires, etc.) the calculated onset of warming would pertain mostly to the last two decades. Contour maps of ground temperatures currently and previously and a contour map of the ground warming magnitude dilineate a large regional character of the ground temperature change at the southern marigin of permafrost for the large area of the Prairie Provinces. In many cases however, the magnitude of ground warming is much larger than the magnitude of air warming. This is especially evident for the northern areas of Alberta in the boreal forest ecoprovince. The magnitude of ground warming is equal to the magnitude of surface air warming in southern Alberta in the grassland and aspen parkland ecoprovinces. The analysis of the temperature depth response to the surface warming from well data shows the integrated effect of surface air warming together with the increases in ground temperature due to natural terrain effects and other anthropogenical changes to the surface of the earth.
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    Monosoonal precipitation responses of shrubs in a cold desert community on the Colorado Plateau (1996)
    Springer
    Oecologia 106 (1996), S. 8-17 
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    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Climate change ; Desert shrubs ; Colorado plateau ; Stable isotope ratio ; Summer precipitation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract South-eastern Utah forms a northern border for the region currently influenced by the Arizona monosoonal system, which feeds moisture and summer precipitation into western North America. One major consequence predicted by global climate change scenarios is an intensification of monosoonal (summer) precipitation in the aridland areas of the western United States. We examined the capacity of dominant perennial shrubs in a Colorado Plateau cold desert ecosystem of southern Utah, United States, to use summer moisture inputs. We simulated increases of 25 and 50 mm summer rain events on Atriplex canescens, Artemisia filifolia, Chrysothamnus nauseosus, Coleogyne ramosissima, and Vanclevea stylosa, in July and September with an isotopically enriched water (enriched in deuterium but not 18O). The uptake of this artificial water source was estimated by analyzing hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios of stem water. The predawn and midday xylem water potentials and foliar carbon isotope discrimination were measured to estimate changes in water status and water-use efficiency. At. canescens and Ch. nauseosus showed little if any uptake of summer rains in either July or September. The predawn and midday xylem water potentials for control and treatment plants of these two species were not significantly different from each other. For A. filifolia and V. stylosa, up to 50% of xylem water was from the simulated summer rain, but the predawn and midday xylem water potentials were not significantly affected by the additional summer moisture input. In contrast, C. ramosissima showed significant uptake of the simulated summer rain (〉50% of xylem water was from the artificial summer rain) and an increase in both predawn and midday water potentials. The percent uptake of simulated summer rain was greater when those rains were applied in September than in July, implying that high soil temperature in midsummer may in some way inhibit water uptake. Foliar carbon isotope discrimination increased significantly in the three shrubs taking up simulated summer rain, but pre-treatment differences in the absolute discrimination values were maintained among species. The ecological implications of our results are discussed in terms of the dynamics of this desert community in response to changes in the frequency and dependability of summer rains that might be associated with a northward shift in the Arizona monsoon boundary.
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    Antarctic fellfield response to climate change: a tripartite synthesis of experimental data (1996)
    Springer
    Oecologia 107 (1996), S. 141-150 
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    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Antarctica ; Climate change ; Propagule banks ; Community development ; Biogeochemical feedback
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract This paper explores the biological consequences of climate change by integrating the results of a tripartite investigation involving fumarole, field manipulation and laboratory incubation experiments. The geographical region for this research is the maritime Antarctic. Under contemporary climate conditions, the lithosols in this region support only a sparse cryptogamic flora of limited taxonomic diversity and low structural complexity. However, the existence in geothermal areas of temperate species (e.g. Campylopus introflexus, Marchantia polymorpha, Philonotis acicularis) growing outside their normal biogeographical range suggests that elevated temperature and humidity may alter the trajectory of community development towards Magellanic or Patagonian composition. Productivity is also likely to increase, as indicated by significantly greater vegetative biomass recorded beneath climate-ameliorating soil covers than in controls. Barren fellfield soil samples transplanted to the laboratory and incubated at temperatures of 2–25°C show rapid development of moss, algae and lichen propagules in the range 15–25°C. A variety of species develop that have not been recorded in the field. The presence of exotic taxa indicates the existence of a dormant propagule bank in maritime Antarctic soils and suggests that no significant delay is likely to occur between the onset of climate warming and community development: instead, rapid establishment of those species favoured by the new climate conditions will yield a distinct founder effect, with increasing above- and below-ground biomass stimulating biogeochemical cycling. It is argued that the combined results of this synthesis identify generic responses to climate change arising from the importance at high latitudes of low temperature and water availability as limiting factors: subject to other growth resources being non-limiting, a more consistent stimulatory response to climate change may be expected than in temperate or tropical regions. The tripartite approach, encompassing field, microcosm and laboratory methodologies, renders the conclusions more robust than any single study considered in isolation.
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    Long-term persistence in a changing climate: DNA analysis suggests very old ages of clones of alpine Carex curvula (1996)
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    Oecologia 105 (1996), S. 94-99 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Alpine grassland ; Climate change ; RAPD ; Population genetic structure ; Tussock sedge
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Carex curvula is a very slow-growing rhizomatous sedge that forms extensive stands in the European an alpine belt. The recruitment of sexual progeny is extremely rare and propagation occurs predominantly through clonal growth. The randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) technique was used to analyse clonal structure in a small patch (2.0x0.4 m sampling transect plus some additional samples) of a high-alpine population of the species. Amplification of the DNA of 116 tiller samples from the patch with eight ten-base primers yielded a total of 95 bands, of which 73 were polymorphic. Based on the RAPD amplification profiles a total of 15 multilocus genotypes (putative clones) were identified. Due to the high number of polymorphic loci the number of genetic markers delineating individual clones was high (range: 16–39 markers) which suggests that our estimates of clonal diversity are precise. More than half of the sampled tillers were identified as belonging to a single clone which formed a relatively homogeneous disc intermingling with other clones only at its margin. Based on the maximum diameter of this large clone of more than 7000 tillers and estimates of annual expansion growth of rhizomes (0.4 mm year-1), the age of the clone was calculated to be around 2000 years. This demonstrates that clones of C. curvula may persist on a single spot over long periods with quite diverse alpine climates ranging from rather mild periods in the Middle Ages to cool periods during the so called “little ice age” in the last century. Our results suggest caution with plant migration scenarios based on shifting isotherms where late-successional clonal species, which dominate the alpine vegetation all over the world, are concerned.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00328796
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    High-temperature tolerance of Artemisia tridentata and Potentilla gracilis under a climate change manipulation (1996)
    Springer
    Oecologia 108 (1996), S. 224-231 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Chlorophyll fluorescence ; Climate change ; Electrolyte leakage ; Rocky Mountains ; Sagebrush
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Leaf tolerance to high temperatures, as determined by electrolyte leakage and chlorophyll a fluorescence, was compared for Artemisia tridentata (Asteraceae), a widespread shrub of the Great Basin, Colorado Plateau, and western slope of the Rocky Mountains, and Potentilla gracilis (Rosaceae), a herbaceous forb common to high-elevation meadows of the western United States. Species-specific and treatment-specific differences in leaf temperature, high-temperature tolerance and chlorophyll a fluorescence from photosystem II were compared, to test the hypothesis that plants at ecosystem borders will exhibit species-specific responses to climate change. Measurements were made for plants exposed to a climate change warming manipulation on a major ecosystem border at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Colorado, United States, in July and August 1995. In July, daily maximal leaf temperatures were significantly higher for P. gracilis than for A. tridentata. Leaf temperatures were slightly lower in August than July for leaves of both species, on control and heated plots, despite the fact that daily maximum air temperatures were not significantly different for the two months. High-temperature tolerance was determined for leaves treated for 1 h at temperatures ranging from 15°C to 65°C. LT50 was approximately 46°C for both species on control plots, but was 43°C for leaves of both species from heated plots, contrary to the predictions of the hypothesis. No shift in LT50 (acclimation) was apparent between July and August. Changes in chlorophyll a fluorescence from photosystem II (F V /F M ) were used to characterize the photosynthetic response to high temperatures. For both A. tridentata and P. gracilis in July, F V /F M was about 0.7, but decreased for temperatures above 40°C. The results suggest that plant responses to global warming at ecosystem borders may be influenced by factors other than leaf-level physiological tolerance to elevated temperatures.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00334645
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    Effects of drainage and temperature on carbon balance of tussock tundra micrososms (1996)
    Springer
    Oecologia 108 (1996), S. 737-748 
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    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Tussock tundra ; Net CO2 balance ; Eriophorum vaginatum ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract We examined the importance of temperature (7°C or 15°C) and soil moisture regime (saturated or field capacity) on the carbon (C) balance of arctic tussock tundra microcosms (intact blocks of soil and vegetation) in growth chambers over an 81-day simulated growing season. We measured gaseous CO2 exchanges, methane (CH4) emissions, and dissolved C losses on intact blocks of tussock (Eriophorum vaginatum) and intertussock (moss-dominated). We hypothesized that under increased temperature and/or enhanced drainage, C losses from ecosystem respiration (CO2 respired by plants and heterotrophs) would exceed gains from gross photosynthesis causing tussock tundra to become a net source of C to the atmosphere. The field capacity moisture regime caused a decrease in net CO2 storage (NEP) in tussock tundra micrososms. This resulted from a stimulation of ecosystem respiration (probably mostly microbial) with enhanced drainage, rather than a decrease in gross photosynthesis. Elevated temperature alone had no effect on NEP because CO2 losses from increased ecosystem respiration at elevated temperature were compensated by increased CO2 uptake (gross photosynthesis). Although CO2 losses from ecosystem respiration were primarily limited by drainage, CH4 emissions, in contrast, were dependent on temperature. Furthermore, substantial dissolved C losses, especially organic C, and important microhabitat differences must be considered in estimating C balance for the tussock tundra system. As much as ∼ 20% of total C fixed in photosynthesis was lost as dissolved organic C. Tussocks stored ∼ 2x more C and emitted 5x more methane than intertussocks. In spite of the limitations of this microcosm experiment, this study has further elucidated the critical role of soil moisture regime and dissolved C losses in regulating net C balance of arctic tussock tundra.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00329050
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    Alternative energy balances for Bulgaria to mitigate climate change (1996)
    Springer
    Environmental management 20 (1996), S. S27 
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    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Keywords: Heat production ; Electricity production ; CO2 emission reduction ; Mitigation measures ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Alternative energy balances aimed to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are developed as alternatives to the baseline energy balance. The section of mitigation options is based on the results of the GHG emission inventory for the 1987–1992 period. The energy sector is the main contributor to the total CO2 emissions of Bulgaria. Stationary combustion for heat and electricity production as well as direct end-use combustion amounts to 80% of the total emissions. The parts of the energy network that could have the biggest influence on GHG emission reduction are identified. The potential effects of the following mitigation measures are discussed: rehabilitation of the combustion facilities currently in operation; repowering to natural gas; reduction of losses in thermal and electrical transmission and distribution networks; penetration of new combustion technologies; tariff structure improvement; renewable sources for electricity and heat production; wasteheat utilization; and supply of households with natural gas to substitute for electricity in space heating and cooking. The total available and the achievable potentials are estimated and the implementation barriers are discussed.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01204189
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    Pressures, trends, and impacts in coastal zones: Interactions between socioeconomic and natural systems (1996)
    Springer
    Environmental management 20 (1996), S. 159-173 
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    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Keywords: Coastal zone management ; Environmental damage valuation ; Climate change ; Sea-level rise
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper assesses the status of coastal zones in the context of expected climate change and its related impacts, as well as current and future socioeconomic pressures and impacts. It is argued that external stresses and shocks relating to sea-level rise and other changes will tend to exacerbate existing environmental pressures and damage in coastal zones. Coastal zones are under increasing stress because of an interrelated set of planning failures including information, economic market, and policy intervention failures. Moves towards integrated coastal zone management are urgently required to guide the coevolution of natural and human systems. Overtly technocentric claims that assessments of vulnerability undertaken to date are overestimates of likely future damages from global warming are premature. While it is the case that forecasts of sea-level rise have been scaled down, much uncertainty remains over, for example, combined storm, sea surge, and other events. In any case, within the socioeconomic analyses of the problem, resource valuations have been at best only partial and have failed to incorporate sensitivity analysis in terms of the discount rates utilized. This would indicate an underestimation of potential damage costs. Overall, a precautionary approach is justified based on the need to act ahead of adequate information acquisition, economically efficient resource pricing and proactive coastal planning.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01204001
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    The economic consequences of substituting carbon payments for crop subsidies in U.S. agriculture (1996)
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    Environmental and resource economics 7 (1996), S. 15-43 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: Climate change ; carbon sequestration ; farm policy ; afforestation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract There is a growing body of literature on the costs of sequestering carbon. However, no studies have examined the interplay between farm commodity programs and carbon sequestration programs. This study investigates two dimensions of the interaction between farm commodity programs and afforestation programs, using a price-endogenous sector model of agriculture in the United States. First, this study compares the fiscal and welfare costs of achieving specific carbon targets through afforestation, with and without current farm programs. Second, it examines the welfare, fiscal, and carbon consequences of replacing existing farm subsidies, wholly or in part, with payments for carbon. Two approaches, Hicksian and Marshallian, are investigated. In the first, the sector model is used to quantify the carbon consequences and fiscal costs associated with various combinations of farm commodity and carbon sequestration programs that leave consumers and producers in the U.S. agricultural sector no worse off than under existing farm programs. The second approach focuses on the carbon and welfare consequences of various farm commodity and carbon sequestration programs that hold total program fiscal costs constant at current levels. Althouth the methodology and data are applied to the United States, the issues addressed are common in a number of developed nations, particularly within the European Union (EU). Adapting existing sector models in these nations to perform similar analyses would provide policy makers with more precise information about the nature of the trade-offs involved with second-best policies for replacing farm commodity subsidies with tree planting subsidies.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00420425
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    Earthworm effects on the use of C sources by microorganisms: Non-linear response to temperature alteration (1995)
    Springer
    Biology and fertility of soils 19 (1995), S. 109-114 
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    ISSN: 1432-0789
    Keywords: Aporrectodea caliginosa ; Soil microflora C mineralization ; Beech litter ; Temperature ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract A microcosm was used to study the effect of the endogeic earthworm Aporrectodea caliginosa (Savigny) on the use of C by microorganisms in a calcareous beech forest soil and its dependence on temperature (5–25%C). Inclusion of 14C-labelled beech leaf litter made it possible to differentiate between C use by litter-colonizing microflora and by autochthonous soil microflora. The effect of temperature on the soil microbial biomass 12C was confined to a significant increase at 15 and 20°C. The size of the 14C-labelled microbial biomass, in contrast, was positively correlated with temperature. The 12C mineralization increased exponentially with temperature. The relationship between 14C mineralization and temperature, in contrast, followed a logistic curve. Significant main effects of A. caliginosa were confined to 12C mineralization, reflecting an increase in 12CO2−C production in the earthworm treatments. The earthworm effects on 12CO2−C production and on 14C incorporation of the microflora were not linear. The effect of A. caliginosa on 12CO2−C production was most pronouned at intermediate temperatures. It is concluded that temperature alterations affect the microbial use of different C sources in different ways and that the temperature effects can be significantly modified by endogeic earthworms.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00336145
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    The potential effects of climate change on winter mortality in England and Wales (1995)
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    International journal of biometeorology 38 (1995), S. 141-147 
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    ISSN: 1432-1254
    Keywords: Climate change ; Winter mortality ; Temperature
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Abstract In Britain death rates from several important causes, particularly circulatory and respiratory diseases, rise markedly during the colder winter months. This close association between temperature and mortality suggests that climate change as a result of global warming may lead to a future reduction in excess winter deaths. This paper gives a brief introductory review of the literature on the links between cold conditions and health, and statistical models are subsequently developed of the associations between temperature and monthly mortality rates for the years 1968 to 1988 for England and Wales. Other factors, particularly the occurrence of influenza epidemics, are also taken into account. Highly significant negative associations were found between temperature and death rates from all causes and from chronic bronchitis, pneumonia, ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. The statistical models developed from this analysis were used to compare death rates for current conditions with those that might be expected to occur in a future warmer climate. The results indicate that the higher temperatures predicted for 2050 might result in nearly 9000 fewer winter deaths each year with the largest contribution being from mortality from ischaemic heart disease. However, these preliminary estimates might change when further research is able to make into account a number of additional factors affecting the relationship between mortality and climate.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01208491
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    The human bioclimates of Western and South Pacific islands and climate change (1995)
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    International journal of biometeorology 39 (1995), S. 5-12 
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    ISSN: 1432-1254
    Keywords: Equatorial tropical bioclimates ; Southwest Pacific ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The current bioclimates of equatorial Western and tropical South Pacific have been assessed, using the concepts of effective temperature and relative strain as a basis for evaluating likely changes in human comfort regimes as a consequence of global warming. Current bioclimates may be considered marginally stressful for indigenous populations. Global warming will result in changes in the frequency, duration and intensity of physioclimatically stressful conditions.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01320886
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    The CO2 sense of the moth Cactoblastis cactorum and its probable role in the biological control of the CAM plant Opuntia stricta (1995)
    Springer
    Oecologia 102 (1995), S. 341-352 
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    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Plant/herbivore interactions ; Insect CO2 sense ; Chemical ecology ; CO2 microclimate ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract The interaction between the moth, Cactoblastis cactorum, and the cactus, Opuntia stricta, is used as a model to examine the question of whether the CO2 sense of a herbivorous insect can detect the CO2 gradients associated with a plant's metabolic activity. Both the anatomical and the electrophysiological characteristics of CO2-sensitive receptor neurons in C. cactorum indicate an adaptation to the detection of small fluctuations around the atmospheric background. Evidence is provided that further rises in background will impair the function of the sensory organ. In the habitat of the plant, during the diurnal window of the moth's activity, two types of CO2 gradients occur that are detectable by the moth's sensors. The first gradient, associated with soil respiration, is vertical and extends from the soil surface to an altitude of approximately 1 m. Its magnitude is well above the detectability limit of the sensors. The notion that this gradient provides, to a flying insect, a cue for the maintenance of a flight altitude favourable for host detection is supported by field observations of behaviour. The second gradient, associated with CO2 fixation by the plant, extends from the surfaces of photosynthetic organs (cladodes) over a boundary layer distance of approximately 5 mm. Again, its magnitude is well above the detectability limit. The notion that this gradient provides, to a walking insect, a cue to the physiological condition of the plant is supported by the observation that females of C. cactorum, prior to oviposition, actively probe the plant surface with their CO2 sensors. In a simulation of probing, pronounced responses of the sensors to the CO2-fixing capacity of O. stricta are observed. We propose that by probing the boundary layer, females of C. cactorum can detect the healthiest, most active O. stricta cladodes, accounting for earlier observations that the most vigorous plants attract the greatest density of egg sticks.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00329801
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    Environmental constraints on the growth, photosynthesis and reproductive development of Dryas octopetala at a high Arctic polar semi-desert, Svalbard (1995)
    Springer
    Oecologia 102 (1995), S. 478-489 
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    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Arctic ; Climate change ; Dryas octopetala ; L. ssp. octopetala ; Clonal growth ; Reproductive output
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Opportunities exist in high Arctic polar semidesert communities for colonisation of unvegetated ground by long-lived clonal plants such as Dryas octopetala. This can be achieved by lateral spread of vegetative ramets, or by sexual reproduction and seedling recruitment. The objectives of this study were (1) to determine whether these two means of proliferation show differential sensitivity to contrasting components of the abiotic environment (temperature, soil nutrient and water availability) and (2) to evaluate the potential for D. octopetala to respond to climate change by an increase in cover and biomass in polar semi-desert communities. Factorial environmental manipulations of growing season temperature, soil nutrient and water status were conducted over 3 years at a polar semi-desert community in Svalbard, Norway (78°56.12′N, 11°50.4′E) and both clonal and sexual reproductive performance, together with instantaneous net photosynthesis (Pn), were recorded during the third season (1993). D. octopetala capitalised rapidly on an amelioration in the availability of inorganic nutrients (N, P and K) by an expansion in leaf area and biomass supported by increased Pn per unit leaf weight, and by apparent luxury uptake of nutrients (particularly P). Several facets of sexual reproductive development and seed viability were markedly improved by elevated temperatures or soil nutrient availability. Thus although D. octopetala is a long-lived clonal plant, with many traits characteristic of stress resistance syndrome, it showed considerable phenotypic plasticity in response to environmental manipulations. The results support the hypothesis that clonal growth confers survival potential during unfavourable years, together with the ability to capitalise on nutrient flushes and recycle nutrients internally. Continued investment in sexual reproduction ensures that seed setting is successful during favourable years, even if these occur infrequently. Cimate warming in the high Arctic could thus result in changes in the cover, biomass and the relative significance of clonal versus sexual proliferation of D. octopetala (and thus the genetic diversity of the population) but the long-term responses will probably be constrained by lack of available nutrients.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00341360
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    Climate response among growth increments of fish and trees (1995)
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    Oecologia 104 (1995), S. 272-279 
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    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Climate change ; Rock bass ; Smallmouth bass ; Dendroehronology ; Ecosystem
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Significant correlations were found among the annual growth increments of stream fish, trees, and climate variables in the Ozark region of the United States. The variation in annual growth increments of rock bass (Ambloplites rupestris) from the Jacks Fork River was significantly correlated over 22 years with the ring width of four tree species: white oak (Quercus alba), post oak (Quercus stellata), shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata) and eastern red cedar (Juniperus virginiana). Rock bass growth and tree growth were both significantly correlated with July rainfall and stream discharge. Variations in annual growth of smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) from four streams were significantly correlated over 29 years (1939–1968) with mean May maximum air temperature but not with tree growth. The magnitude and significance of correlations among growth increments from fish and trees imply that conditions such as topography, stream gradient, organism age, and the distribution of a population relative to its geographic range can influence the climatic response of an organism. The timing and intensity of climatic variables may produce different responses among closely related species.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00328361
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    Modeling human-induced climatic change: A summary for environmental managers (1995)
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    Environmental management 19 (1995), S. 197-224 
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    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Keywords: Climate change ; Climate models ; Ecosystems ; Greenhouse effect ; Land surface processes ; Uncertainty ; Validation ; Variability ; Water resources
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The rapid increase in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases has caused concern because of their potential to alter the earth's radiation budget and disrupt current climate patterns While there are many uncertainties associated with use of general circulation models (GCMs), GCMs are currently the best available technology to project changes in climate associated with elevated gas concentrations. Results indicate increases in global temperature and changes in global precipitation patterns are likely as a result of doubled CO2. GCMs are not reliable for use at the regional scale because local scale processes and geography are not taken into account. Comparison of results from five GCMs in three regions of the United States indicate high variability across regions and among models depending on season and climate variable. Statistical methods of scaling model output and nesting finer resolution models in global models are two techniques that may improve projections. Despite the many limitations in GCMs, they are useful tools to explore climate-earth system dynamics when used in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models. A variety of water resource models showed significant alteration of regional hydrology when run with both GCM-generated and hypothetical climate scenarios, regardless of region or model complexity. Similarly, ecological models demonstrate the sensitivity of ecosystem production, nutrient dynamics, and distribution to changes in climate and CO2 levels. We recommend the use of GCM-based scenarios in conjunction with water resource and ecosystem models to guide environmental management and policy in a “no-regrets” framework or as part of a precautionary approach to natural resource protection.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02471991
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    Protecting endangered species under future climate change: From single-species preservation to an anticipatory policy approach (1995)
    Springer
    Environmental management 19 (1995), S. 641-648 
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    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Keywords: Endangered species ; Endangered Species Act of 1973 ; Natural resource policy ; Climate change ; Policy orientation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Anthropogenic climate climate change presents a unique challenge for endangered species policy and an opportunity for policy makers to develop a more predictive and robust approach to preserving the nation's biological resources. Biological and ecological reactions to shifting climate conditions and the potential feedbacks and synergistic effects of such changes may threaten the well-being of many species, particularly of those already in jeopardy of extinction. The United States Endangered Species Act of 1973 will fail to keep pace with increasing numbers of species needing protection as long as it remains focused on protecting species individually. The actmust not be abandoned, however; it holds tremendous promise for preserving biological diversity through a more proactive, anticipatory perspective. The current Endangered Species Act should be reinforced and improved by better integration of scientific expertise into habitat and community preservation listing decisions and recovery plan devlopment. Given the uncertainties surrounding long-term environmental consequences of human activities and resource use, a longer-term perspective must be integrated into all efforts to protect our biotic resources.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02471946
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    Increase in tree-ring width in subalpine Pinus cembra from the central Alps that may be CO2-related (1995)
    Springer
    Trees 9 (1995), S. 181-189 
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    ISSN: 1432-2285
    Keywords: Alps ; Altitude ; Carbon dioxide ; Climate change ; Dendrochronology
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract It has been suggested many times that elevated atmospheric CO2 levels should stimulate radial increment of stem growth. However, interpretation of dendrochronologies with respect to a CO2 signal is a difficult task, since a multitude of environmental and tree factors influence the growth of stems. Here we provide a data set from subalpine stone pine which covers the period from 1750 to 1988, and from which growth rings of the 80- to 90-year age class were analysed. The most common climatological effects are taken into consideration. We found a steady and significant increase of mean ring width for the considered age class from approximately 1 mm per year in the middle of the last century to about 1.4 mm per year at present. Selected periods of equal mean summer temperatures in the last century and in more recent decades still yield a mean stimulation of about 25% for which atmospheric CO2 enrichment appears to be the most plausible explanation. The recent dramatic increase of atmospheric N-deposition could confound this interpretation, but chronologies of the last 2 decades during which wet and dry deposition of N-compounds showed the most dramatic increase exhibit no deviation from the long term trend. In contrast to the so far conflicting evidence of tree-ring responses to atmospheric changes the clear signal obtained here may be explained as follows: (1) stone pine produces little late season wood and moisture is never a limiting factor (particularly not in the early season); (2) comparatively good climatic records permitted the selection of thermally comparable periods; (3) trees grew under little spatial competition, (4) cores were collected well below the upper altitudinal range-limit of stone pine, leaving enough physiological leeway under episodic climatic stress, but (5) trees grew at altitudes high enough so that the reduction of the partial pressure of CO2 could be expected to cause CO2 to become relatively more limiting than at low elevations.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00195270
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    Terrestrial transects for global change research (1995)
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    Plant ecology 121 (1995), S. 53-65 
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    ISSN: 1573-5052
    Keywords: Biogeochemistry ; Climate change ; Ecosystem ; IGBP ; Land use ; Vegetation dynamics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract The International Geosphere-Biosphere Program has proposed a set of large-scale terrestrial transects to study the effects of changes in climate, land use, and atmospheric composition (“global change”) on biogeochemistry, surface-atmosphere exchange, and vegetation dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. The transects (≈ 1000 km) will be located along existing environmental and land use intensity gradients that span transitions between biomes in regions likely to be widely affected by forcing from components of global change or where the impacts of global change are likely to feed back to affect atmospheric, climatic, or hydrologic systems. Experimental studies on the transects will examine short-term changes in ecosystem function and biosphere-atmosphere interaction in response to variation in primary controlling variables. A hierarchy of modeling approaches will develop predictions of long-term changes in biome boundaries and vegetation distribution. The proposed initial set of IGBP terrestrial transects are located in four key regions: (1) humid tropical forests undergoing land use change, (2) high latitudes including the transition from boreal forest to tundra, (3) semi-arid tropical regions including transitions from dry forest to shrublands and savannas, and (4) mid latitude semi-arid regions encompassing transitions from shrubland or grassland to forests. We discuss here the rationale and general research design of transect studies proposed for each of these priority regions.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00044672
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