ALBERT

Description: 〈jats:p〉Abstract. Understanding the future evolution of permafrost requires a better understanding of its climatological past. This requires permafrost models to efficiently simulate the thermal dynamics of permafrost over the past centuries to millennia, taking into account highly uncertain soil and snow properties. In this study, we present a computationally efficient numerical permafrost model which satisfactorily reproduces the current ground temperatures and active layer thicknesses of permafrost in the Arctic and their trends over recent centuries. The performed simulations provide insights into the evolution of permafrost since the 18th century and show that permafrost on the North American continent is subject to early degradation, while permafrost on the Eurasian continent is relatively stable over the investigated 300-year period. Permafrost warming since industrialization has occurred primarily in three “hotspot” regions in northeastern Canada, northern Alaska, and, to a lesser extent, western Siberia. We find that the extent of areas with a high probability (p3 m>0.9) of near-surface permafrost (i.e., 3 m of permafrost within the upper 10 m of the subsurface) has declined substantially since the early 19th century, with loss accelerating during the last 50 years. Our simulations further indicate that short-term climate cooling due to large volcanic eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere in some cases favors permafrost aggradation within the uppermost 10 m of the ground, but the effect only lasts for a relatively short period of a few decades. Despite some limitations, e.g., with respect to the representation of vegetation, the presented model shows great potential for further investigation of the climatological past of permafrost, especially in conjunction with paleoclimate modeling. 〈/jats:p〉

Description: The response of evapotranspiration to anthropogenic warming is of critical importance for the water and carbon cycle. Contradictory conclusions about evapotranspiration changes are caused primarily by their brevity in time and sparsity in space, as well as the strong influence of internal variability. Here, we present the first gridded reconstruction of the summer (June, July, and August) vapor pressure deficit (VPD) for the past 4 centuries at the European level. This gridded reconstruction is based on 26 European tree ring oxygen isotope records and is obtained using a random forest approach. According to validation scores obtained with the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency, our reconstruction is robust over large parts of Europe since 1600, in particular for the westernmost and northernmost regions, where most tree ring records are located. Based on our reconstruction, we show that from the mid-1700s a trend towards higher summer VPD occurred in central Europe and the Mediterranean region that is related to a simultaneous increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. This increasing summer VPD trend continues throughout the observational period and in recent times. Moreover, our summer VPD reconstruction helps to visualize the local and regional impacts of the current climate change, as well as to minimize statistical uncertainties of historical VPD variability. This paper provides also new insights into the relationship between summer VPD and large-scale atmospheric circulation, and we show that summer VPD has two preferred modes of variability, namely a NW-SE dipole-like mode and a N-S dipole-like mode. Furthermore, the interdisciplinary use of the data should be emphasized, as summer VPD is a crucial parameter for many climatological feedback processes in the Earth's surface system. The reconstructed summer VPD gridded data over the last 400 years are available at the following link: 10.5281/zenodo.5958836 (Balting et al., 2022).

Description: Leads and fractures in sea ice play a crucial role in the heat and gas exchange between the ocean and atmosphere, impacting atmospheric, ecological, and oceanic processes. We estimated lead fractions from high-resolution divergence obtained from satellite synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data and evaluated them against existing lead products. We derived two new lead fraction products from divergence with a spatial resolution of 700mcalculated from daily Sentinel-1 images. For the first lead product, we advected and accumulated the lead fractions of individual time nstances. With those accumulated divergence-derived lead fractions, we comprehensively described the presence of up to 10 d old leads and analyzed their deformation history. For the second lead product, we used only divergence pixels that were identified as part of linear kinematic features (LKFs). Both new lead products accurately captured the formation of new leads with widths of up to a few hundred meters. We resented a Lagrangian time series of the divergence-based lead fractions along the drift of the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in the central Arctic Ocean during winter 2019–2020. Lead activity was high in fall and spring, consistent with wind forcing and ice pack consolidation. At larger scales of 50–150 km around the MOSAiC expedition, lead activity on all scales was similar, but differences emerged at smaller scales (10 km). We compared our lead products with six others from satellite and airborne sources, including classified SAR, thermal infrared, microwave radiometer, and altimeter data. We found that the mean lead fractions varied by 1 order of magnitude across different lead products due to different physical lead and sea ice properties observed by the sensors and methodological factors such as spatial resolution. Thus, the choice of lead product should align with the specific application.

Description: Much of our understanding of Cenozoic climate is based on the record of δ18O measured in benthic foraminifera. However, this measurement reflects a combined signal of global temperature and sea level, thus preventing a clear understanding of the interactions and feedbacks of the climate system in causing global temperature change. Our new reconstruction of temperature change over the past 4.5 million years includes two phases of long-term cooling, with the second phase of accelerated cooling during the Middle Pleistocene Transition (1.5 to 0.9 million years ago) being accompanied by a transition from dominant 41,000-year low-amplitude periodicity to dominant 100,000-year high-amplitude periodicity. Changes in the rates of long-term cooling and variability are consistent with changes in the carbon cycle driven initially by geologic processes, followed by additional changes in the Southern Ocean carbon cycle. 〈/jats:p〉

Description: 〈jats:p〉Abstract. The presence of melt ponds on Arctic summer sea ice significantly alters its albedo and thereby the surface energy budget and mass balance. Large-scale observations of melt pond coverage and sea ice albedo are crucial to investigate the role of sea ice for Arctic amplification and its representation in global climate models. We present the new Melt Pond Detection 2 (MPD2) algorithm, which retrieves melt pond, sea ice, and open-ocean fractions as well as surface albedo from Sentinel-3 visible and near-infrared reflectances. In contrast to most other algorithms, our method uses neither fixed values for the spectral albedo of the surface constituents nor an artificial neural network. Instead, it aims for a fully physical representation of the reflective properties of the surface constituents based on their optical characteristics. The state vector X, containing the optical properties of melt ponds and sea ice along with the area fractions of melt ponds and open ocean, is optimized in an iterative procedure to match the measured reflectances and describe the surface state. A major problem in unmixing a compound pixel is that a mixture of half open water and half bright ice cannot be distinguished from a homogeneous pixel of darker ice. In order to overcome this, we suggest constraining the retrieval with a priori information. Initial values and constraint of the surface fractions are derived with an empirical retrieval which uses the same spectral reflectances as implemented in the physical retrieval. The snow grain size and optical thickness change with time, and thus the ice surface albedo changes throughout the season. Therefore, field observations of spectral albedo are used to develop a parameterization of the sea ice optical properties as a function of the temperature history of the sea ice. With these a priori data, the iterative optimization is initialized and constrained, resulting in a retrieval uncertainty of below 8 % for melt pond and 9 % for open-ocean fractions compared to the reference dataset. As reference data for evaluation, a 10 m resolution product of melt pond and open-ocean fraction from Sentinel-2 optical imagery is used. 〈/jats:p〉

Description: Profound environmental changes, such as drastic sea-ice decline, leave large-scale ecological footprints on the distribution and composition of marine biota in the Arctic. Currently, the impact of such stressors is not sufficiently understood due to the lack of pan-Arctic data that allow for estimating ecological baselines as well as modelling current and forecast potential changes in benthic biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Here, we introduce the PAN-Arctic data collection of benthic BIOtas (PANABIO) and discuss its timeliness, potential, and details of its further development. The data collection contains individual datasets with records (presence, counts, abundance, or biomass) of benthic fauna, usually at genus level or species level, which were identified in field samples obtained at point-referenced locations (stations) by means of grabs, towed gear, or seabed imaging. The data cover the entire pan-Arctic realm, i.e.The central Arctic Ocean, Chukchi Sea, East Siberian Sea, Laptev Sea, Kara Sea, Barents Sea (including the White Sea), Svalbard waters, Greenland Sea, Norwegian Sea, Canadian Archipelago, Beaufort Sea, and Bering Sea as well as some adjacent sub-Arctic regions (Sea of Japan, Gulf of Okhotsk). Currently (as of 14 December 2023), PANABIO includes 27 datasets with a total of 126ĝ€¯388 records of 2978 taxa collected from 11ĝ€¯555 samples taken at 10ĝ€¯596 stations during 1095 cruises between 1800 and 2014. These numbers will increase with more data becoming available over time through contributions from PANABIO users. The data collection is available in a PostgreSQL-based data warehouse that can be accessed and queried through an open-Access front-end web service at https://critterbase.awi.de/panabio (last access: 27 February 2024). A snapshot of the current data collection and its 27 individual datasets is also available from the data publisher PANGAEA (10.1594/PANGAEA.963640, Piepenburg et al., 2023).

Description: Rayleigh wave ellipticity measurements from seismic ambient noise recorded on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) show complex and anomalous behavior at wave periods sensitive to ice (T 〈 3–4 s). To understand these complex observations, we compare them with synthetic ellipticity measurements obtained from synthetic ambient noise computed for various seismic velocity and attenuation models, including surface wave overtone effects. We find that in dry snow conditions within the interior of the GrIS, to first order the anomalous ellipticity observations can be explained by ice models associated with the accumulation and densification of snow into firn. We also show that the distribution of ellipticity measurements is strongly sensitive to seismic attenuation and the thermal structure of the ice. Our results suggest that Rayleigh wave ellipticity is well suited for monitoring changes in firn properties and thermal composition of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets in a changing climate.

Description: Published

Description: e2023GL103673

Description: OST1 Alla ricerca dei Motori Geodinamici

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Arctic warming increases the degradation of permafrost soils but little is known about floodplain soils in the permafrost region. This study quantifies soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil nitrogen stocks, and the potential CH4 and CO2 production from seven cores in the active floodplains in the Lena River Delta, Russia. The soils were sandy but highly heterogeneous, containing deep, organic rich deposits with 〉60% SOC stored below 30 cm. The mean SOC stocks in the top 1 m were 12.9 ± 6.0 kg C m−2. Grain size analysis and radiocarbon ages indicated highly dynamic environments with sediment re-working. Potential CH4 and CO2 production from active floodplains was assessed using a 1-year incubation at 20°C under aerobic and anaerobic conditions. Cumulative aerobic CO2 production mineralized a mean 4.6 ± 2.8% of initial SOC. The mean cumulative aerobic:anaerobic C production ratio was 2.3 ± 0.9. Anaerobic CH4 production comprised 50 ± 9% of anaerobic C mineralization; rates were comparable or exceeded those for permafrost region organic soils. Potential C production from the incubations was correlated with total organic carbon and varied strongly over space (among cores) and depth (active layer vs. permafrost). This study provides valuable information on the carbon cycle dynamics from active floodplains in the Lena River Delta and highlights the key spatial variability, both among sites and with depth, and the need to include these dynamic permafrost environments in future estimates of the permafrost carbon-climate feedback.

Description: 〈jats:p〉Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) can help mitigate climate change impacts by increasing the carbon storage capacity of the ocean. The technique involves addition of alkaline substances to the seawater to accelerate the natural rock weathering process. However, this will lead to sudden seawater chemistry changes, such as increased pH that might directly and/or indirectly (through trophic pathways) affect zooplankton, an important trophic link, by altering its metabolic state and community composition. In addition, varying dilution times of alkaline substances might impact organisms differently. To date, the possible influences of OAE on zooplankton communities are largely unexplored. To bridge the knowledge gap, we conducted mesocosm and laboratory experiments in simulated non-equilibrated, calcium-based (Ca(OH)2) OAE setups. An incrementally enhanced alkalinity gradient from 0 to 1250 µmol kg-1 in steps of 250 µmol kg-1 was used in all experiments. The wide-ranging enhanced total alkalinity (∆TA) was selected to assess the safety threshold. In addition, we compared immediate versus delayed dilution scenarios in our mesocosm study, where each scenario ended up with the same ∆TA gradient after mixing. We examined the multitrophic community response by monitoring twelve mesocosms for 39 days including the natural spring bloom community of Helgoland roads waters in the North Sea. Subsequently, the direct effect of alkalinity enhancement on the physiology (i.e., respiration and grazing) of Temora longicornis (predominant copepod in the mesocosms) was evaluated in the laboratory. The species-specific bottom-up effect was examined by culturing Rhodomonas salina in aforementioned ∆TA gradient and feeding them to the T. longicornis. We observed relatively lower zooplankton abundance, and growth rate in mesocosms with ∆TA1000 and 1250 µmol kg-1, which might be a bottom-up effect. In our lab experiments, though, we observed a negative impact on R. salina growth rate and nutritional quality from ∆TA750 µmol kg-1, we did not detect any substantial direct or indirect impact on the physiological performance of T. longicornis. Overall, our laboratory study provided a preliminary understanding of the direct and indirect effects of OAE on a key copepod species, and the mesocosm study gave insight into the zooplankton community response.〈/jats:p〉

Description: 〈jats:p〉Human activities, such as global warming and nutrient pollution, are posing significant threats to the ecological interactions and biodiversity in aquatic environments [1]. The German Bight, a highly dynamic coastal region of the North Sea, has been subject to considerable warming and nutrient fluctuations over recent decades. These changes have had profound impacts on the plankton communities in this area, leading to a swift reorganization of both phyto- [2] and zooplankton functional structures [3]. While the effects of these changes on individual phyto- and zooplankton levels have been well-documented, our understanding of how plankton interactions respond to these environmental stressors remains limited. In this study, we hypothesize that the synergy of warming and nutrient limitation will alter plankton network interactions, resulting in a shift towards consumers being controlled by resources. We approach this hypothesis from the perspective of Gunderson and Holling’s adaptive cycle metaphor [4]. The metaphor describes ecosystem development as alternating phases of stability and reorganization, being shaped by three systemic properties: the system’s potential available for future change, the connectedness among its internal variables, and its resilience in the light of perturbations. For the quantification of the adaptive cycle, we use a method developed by zu Castell and Schrenk [5,6]. Based on the most comprehensive timeseries available in marine environments, we infer a dynamic network of information transfer, which allows us to study the evolving interaction pattern between phyto-and zooplankton. We discuss this pattern in the context of the adaptive cycle phases and alternative measures of system resilience. To our knowledge, our study is the first to provide a holistic analysis of plankton network interactions in marine environments, considering both phyto- and zooplankton species. This approach offers a deeper understanding of how human-induced impacts affect the foundation of marine food webs.   [1] E. Merz, E. Saberski, L. J. Gilarranz, P. D. F. Isles, G. Sugihara, C. Berger, and F. Pomati, Disruption of ecological networks in lakes by climate change and nutrient fluctuations, Nature Climate Change (2023). [2] J. Di Pane, K. H. Wiltshire, M. McLean, M. Boersma, and C. L. Meunier, Environmentally induced functional shifts in phytoplankton and their potential consequences for ecosystem functioning. Global Change Biology, 28, 2804–2819 (2022). [3] M. M. Deschamps, M. Boersma, C. L. Meunier, I. V. Kirstein, K. H. Wiltshire, and J. Di Pane, Major shift in the copepod functional community of the southern North Sea and potential environmental drivers. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 0, 1–13 (2023). [4] L. H. Gunderson and C. S. Holling. Panarchy: understanding transformations in human and natural systems (Island, Washington, D.C., 2002). [5] W. zu Castell, and H. Schrenk, Computing the adaptive cycle, Scientific Reports 2020(10):18175 (2020). [6] H. Schrenk, C. Garcia-Perez, N. Schreiber, and W. zu Castell, QtAC: an R-package for analyzing complex systems development in the framework of the adaptive cycle metaphor, Ecological Modelling 466:109860 (2022).〈/jats:p〉

Description: The Asian summer monsoon is linked to deep convection over the Indian subcontinent and to an anticyclonic flow that extends from the upper troposphere into the lower stratosphere region. This allows both gas-phase aerosol precursors and aerosol particles from surface sources to reach the stratosphere. The horizontal transport out of the Asian monsoon anticyclone towards the extratropical lower stratosphere of the Northern Hemisphere is the focus of this study. We present an annual record of Lidar observations at AWIPEV in Ny-Ålesund. The data record is free from obvious layers like polar stratospheric clouds, volcanic eruptions or forest fires. Nevertheless, the lower stratosphere reveals an annual cycle with lower backscatter values in winter and spring and higher backscatter values in summer and autumn. The Lidar measurements have been linked to backward trajectory calculations and simulations of artificial surface origin tracers with the three-dimensional Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS). The simulations show that air masses observed above Ny-Ålesund have been transported from surface sources in Asia into the Arctic lower stratosphere. Thus, the increased backscatter values during summer and autumn can be explained by transport of aerosol particles from the Asian summer monsoon into the Arctic lower stratosphere.

Description: Predictive skills of coupled sea-ice/ocean and atmosphere models are limited by the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Assimilation of observational information on ocean hydrography and sea ice allows to obtain a coupled-system state that provides a basis for subseasonal-to-seasonal ocean and sea-ice forecast (Mu et al., 2022). However, if the atmosphere is not additionally constrained, the quasi-random atmospheric states within an ensemble forecast lead to a fast divergence of the ocean and sea-ice states, degrading the system’s performance with respect to the sea ice forecasts. As reported previously, imposing an additional constraint by nudging large-scale winds to the ERA5 reanalysis data (Sánchez-Benítez et al., 2021; Athanase et al., 2022) improves predictive skills of the AWI Coupled Prediction System (AWI-CPS, Mu et al. 2022) with regard to sea ice drift (Losa et al., 2023). Here we provide results based on a much more extensive set of ensemble-based data assimilation experiments spanning the time period from 2002 to 2023 and a series of long forecast experiments over 2010 – 2023, initialized in four different seasons. We compare the performance of forecasts initialized from two sets of data assimilation experiments, with and without atmospheric wind nudging. The additional relaxation of the large-scale atmospheric circulation to the ERA5 reanalysis data for the initialization leads to reasonable atmospheric forecast skill on weather timescales: Despite the simple technique, the coarse resolution compared to NWP systems, and the limited optimization efforts, 10-day forecasts of the 500 hPa geopotential height are about as skillful as the best performing NWP forecasts were about 10 –15 years ago. Among other aspects, this leads to significantly improved subseasonal-to-seasonal sea-ice concentration and thickness forecasts. Athanase, M., Schwager, M., Streffing, J., Andrés-Martínez, M., Loza, S., and Goessling, H.: Impact of the atmospheric circulation on the Arctic snow cover and ice thickness variability , EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-5836, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-5836, 2022. Losa, S. N., Mu, L., Athanase, M., Streffing, J., Andrés-Martínez, M., Nerger, L., Semmler, T., Sidorenko, D., and Goessling, H. F.: Combining sea-ice and ocean data assimilation with nudging atmospheric circulation in the AWI Coupled Prediction System, EGU General Assembly 2023, Vienna, Austria, 24–28 Apr 2023, EGU23-14227, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-14227, 2023. Mu, L. , Nerger, L. , Streffing, J. , Tang, Q. , Niraula, B. , Zampieri, L., Loza, S. N. and Goessling, H. F. (2022): Sea‐Ice Forecasts With an Upgraded AWI Coupled Prediction System , Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 14 (12) . doi: 10.1029/2022ms003176 Sánchez-Benítez, A. , Goessling, H. , Pithan, F. , Semmler, T. and Jung, T. (2022): The July 2019 European Heat Wave in a Warmer Climate: Storyline Scenarios with a Coupled Model Using Spectral Nudging , Journal of Climate, 35 (8), pp. 2373-2390 . doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0573.1

Description: Oxygen isotopes in biogenic silica (δ18OBSi) from lake sediments allow for quantitative reconstruction of past hydroclimate and proxy-model comparison in terrestrial environments. The signals of individual records have been attributed to different factors, such as air temperature (Tair), atmospheric circulation patterns, hydrological changes, and lake evaporation. While every lake has its own local set of drivers of δ18O variability, here we explore the extent to which regional or even global signals emerge from a series of paleoenvironmental records. This study provides a comprehensive compilation and combined statistical evaluation of the existing lake sediment δ18OBSi records, largely missing in other summary publications (i.e. PAGES network). For this purpose, we have identified and compiled 71 down-core records published to date and complemented these datasets with additional lake basin parameters (e.g. lake water residence time and catchment size) to best characterize the signal properties. Records feature widely different temporal coverage and resolution, ranging from decadal-scale records covering the past 150 years to records with multi-millennial-scale resolution spanning glacial-interglacial cycles. The best coverage in number of records (NCombining double low line37) and data points (NCombining double low line2112) is available for Northern Hemispheric (NH) extratropical regions throughout the Holocene (roughly corresponding to Marine Isotope Stage 1; MIS 1). To address the different variabilities and temporal offsets, records were brought to a common temporal resolution by binning and subsequently filtered for hydrologically open lakes with lake water residence times 〈100 years. For mid- to high-latitude (〉45°N) lakes, we find common δ18OBSi patterns among the lake records during both the Holocene and Common Era (CE). These include maxima and minima corresponding to known climate episodes, such as the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM), Neoglacial Cooling, Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). These patterns are in line with long-term air temperature changes supported by previously published climate reconstructions from other archives, as well as Holocene summer insolation changes. In conclusion, oxygen isotope records from NH extratropical lake sediments feature a common climate signal at centennial (for CE) and millennial (for Holocene) timescales despite stemming from different lakes in different geographic locations and hence constitute a valuable proxy for past climate reconstructions.

Description: The trace metal iron (Fe) is an essential micronutrient that controls phytoplankton productivity, which subsequently affects organic matter cycling with feedback on the cycling of macronutrients. Along the continental margin of the US West Coast, high benthic Fe release has been documented, in particular from deep anoxic basins in the Southern California Borderland. However, the influence of this Fe release on surface primary production remains poorly understood. In the present study from the Santa Barbara Basin, in situ benthic Fe fluxes were determined along a transect from shallow to deep sites in the basin. Fluxes ranged between 0.23 and 4.9mmolm-2d-1, representing some of the highest benthic Fe fluxes reported to date. To investigate the influence of benthic Fe release from the oxygen-deficient deep basin on surface phytoplankton production, we combined benthic flux measurements with numerical simulations using the Regional Ocean Modeling System coupled to the Biogeochemical Elemental Cycling (ROMS-BEC) model. For this purpose, we updated the model Fe flux parameterization to include the new benthic flux measurements from the Santa Barbara Basin. Our simulations suggest that benthic Fe fluxes enhance surface primary production, supporting a positive feedback on benthic Fe release by decreasing oxygen in bottom waters. However, a reduction in phytoplankton Fe limitation by enhanced benthic fluxes near the coast may be partially compensated for by increased nitrogen limitation further offshore, limiting the efficacy of this positive feedback.

Description: The Santa Barbara Basin naturally experiences transient deoxygenation due to its unique geological setting in the southern California Borderland and seasonal changes in ocean currents. Long-term measurements of the basin showed that anoxic events and subsequent nitrate exhaustion in the bottom waters have been occurring more frequently and lasting longer over the past decade. One characteristic of the Santa Barbara Basin is the seasonal development of extensive mats of benthic nitrate-reducing sulfur-oxidizing bacteria, which are found at the sediment-water interface when the basin's bottom waters reach anoxia but still provide some nitrate. To assess the mat's impact on the benthic and pelagic redox environment, we collected biogeochemical sediment and benthic flux data in November 2019, after anoxia developed in the deepest waters of the basin and dissolved nitrate was depleted (down to 9.9μM). We found that the development of mats was associated with a shift from denitrification to dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium. The zone of sulfate reduction appeared near the sediment-water interface in sediment hosting these ephemeral white mats. We found that an exhaustion of iron oxides in the surface sediment was an additional prerequisite for mat proliferation. Our research further suggests that cycles of deoxygenation and reoxygenation of the benthic environment result in extremely high benthic fluxes of dissolved iron from the basin's sediment. This work expands our understanding of nitrate-reducing sulfur-oxidizing mats and their role in sustaining and potentially expanding marine anoxia.

Description: Year-round snow cover is a characteristic of the entire Antarctic sea ice cover, which has significant implications for the energy and mass budgets of sea ice, e.g., by preventing surface melt in summer and enhancing sea ice growth through extensive snow ice formation. However, substantial observational gaps in the seasonal cycle of Antarctic sea ice and its snow cover limit the understanding of important processes in the ice-covered Southern Ocean. They also introduce large uncertainties in satellite remote sensing applications and climate studies. Here we present results from 10 years of autonomous snow observations from Snow Buoys in the Weddell Sea. To distinguish between actual snow depth and potential snow ice thickness within the accumulated snowpack, a one-dimensional thermodynamic sea ice model is applied along the drift trajectories of the buoys. The results show that potential snow ice formation, with an average maximum thickness of 35cm, was detected along 41% of the total track length of the analyzed Snow Buoy tracks, which corresponds to about one-quarter of the snow accumulation. In addition, we simulate the evolution of internal snow properties along the drift trajectories with the more complex SNOWPACK model, which results in superimposed ice thicknesses between 0 and 14cm on top of the snow ice layer. These estimates will provide an important reference dataset for both snow depth and meteoric ice rates in the Southern Ocean.

Description: In order to complement the picture of the atmospheric water cycle in the Southern Ocean, we have continuously monitored water vapor isotopes since January 2020 on Amsterdam Island in the Indian Ocean. We present here the first 2-year long water vapor isotopic record at this site. We show that the water vapor isotopic composition largely follows the water vapor mixing ratio, as expected in marine boundary layers. However, we detect 11 periods of a few days where there is a strong loss of correlation between water vapor δ18O and water vapor mixing ratio as well as abrupt negative excursions of water vapor δ18O. These excursions often occur toward the end of precipitation events. Six of these events show a decrease in gaseous elemental mercury, suggesting subsidence of air from a higher altitude. Our study aims to further explore the mechanism driving these negative excursions in water vapor δ18O. We used two different models to provide a data–model comparison over this 2-year period. While the European Centre Hamburg model (ECHAM6-wiso) at 0.9° was able to reproduce most of the sharp negative water vapor δ18O excursions, hence validating the physics process and isotopic implementation in this model, the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Zoom model (LMDZ-iso) at 2° (3°) resolution was only able to reproduce seven (one) of the negative excursions, highlighting the possible influence of the model resolution for the study of such abrupt isotopic events. Based on our detailed model–data comparison, we conclude that the most plausible explanations for such isotopic excursions are rain–vapor interactions associated with subsidence at the rear of a precipitation event.

Description: Improving our understanding of the controls on Antarctic precipitation is critical for gaining insights into past and future polar and global environmental changes. Here we develop innovative water tracing diagnostics in the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6. These tracers provide new detailed information on moisture source locations and properties of Antarctic precipitation. In the preindustrial simulation, annual mean Antarctic precipitation originating from the open ocean has a source latitude range of 49–35◦ S, a source sea surface temperature range of 9.8– 16.3 ◦ C, a source 2 m relative humidity range of 75.6 %– 83.3%, and a source 10m wind velocity (vel10) range of 10.1 to 11.3ms−1. These results are consistent with estimates from existing literature. Central Antarctic precipitation is sourced from more equator-ward (distant) sources via elevated transport pathways compared to coastal Antarctic precipitation. This has been attributed to a moist isentropic framework; i.e. poleward vapour transport tends to follow constant equivalent potential temperature. However, we find notable deviations from this tendency especially in the lower troposphere, likely due to radiative cooling. Heavy precipitation is sourced by longer-range moisture transport: it comes from 2.9◦ (300 km, averaged over Antarctica) more equator-ward (distant) sources compared to the rest of precipitation. Precipitation during negative phases of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) also comes from more equator-ward moisture sources (by 2.4◦, averaged over Antarctica) compared to precipitation during positive SAM phases, likely due to amplified planetary waves during negative SAM phases. Moreover, source vel10 of annual mean precipitation is on average 2.1 m s−1 higher than annual mean vel10 at moisture source locations from which the precipitation originates. This shows that the evaporation of moisture driving Antarctic precipitation occurs under windier conditions than average. We quantified this dynamic control of Southern Ocean surface wind on moisture availability for Antarctic precipitation. Overall, the innovative water tracing diagnostics enhance our under- standing of the controlling factors of Antarctic precipitation.

Description: 〈jats:p〉Abstract. This article describes a modular ensemble-based data assimilation (DA) system which is developed for an integrated surface–subsurface hydrological model. The software environment for DA is the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF), which provides various assimilation algorithms like the ensemble Kalman filters, non-linear filters, 3D-Var and combinations among them. The integrated surface–subsurface hydrological model is HydroGeoSphere (HGS), a physically based modelling software for the simulation of surface and variably saturated subsurface flow, as well as heat and mass transport. The coupling and capabilities of the modular DA system are described and demonstrated using an idealised model of a geologically heterogeneous alluvial river–aquifer system with drinking water production via riverbank filtration. To demonstrate its modularity and adaptability, both single and multivariate assimilations of hydraulic head and soil moisture observations are demonstrated in combination with individual and joint updating of multiple simulated states (i.e. hydraulic heads and water saturation) and model parameters (i.e. hydraulic conductivity). With the integrated model and this modular DA framework, we have essentially developed the hydrologically and DA-wise robust toolbox for developing the basic model for operational management of coupled surface water–groundwater resources. 〈/jats:p〉

Description: Marine heatwaves are increasing in frequency and intensity as climate change progresses, especially in the highly productive Arctic regions. Although their effects on primary producers will largely determine the impacts on ecosystem services, mechanistic understanding on phytoplankton responses to these extreme events is still very limited. We experimentally exposed Arctic phytoplankton assemblages to stable warming, as well as to repeated heatwaves, and measured temporally resolved productivity, physiology, and composition. Our results show that even extreme stable warming increases productivity, while the response to heatwaves depends on the specific scenario applied and is not predictable from stable warming responses. This appears to be largely due to the underestimated impact of the cool phase following a heatwave, which can be at least as important as the warm phase for the overall response. We show that physiological and compositional adjustments to both warm and cool phases drive overall phytoplankton productivity and need to be considered mechanistically to predict overall ecosystem impacts.

Description: 〈jats:p〉Abstract. Stable water isotopes stored in snow, firn and ice are used to reconstruct climatic parameters. The imprint of these parameters at the snow surface and their preservation in the upper snowpack are determined by a number of processes influencing the recording of the environmental signal. Here, we present a dataset of approximately 3800 snow samples analysed for their stable water isotope composition, which were obtained during the summer season next to the deep drilling site of the East Greenland Ice Core Project in northeast Greenland (75.635411° N, 36.000250° W). Sampling was carried out every third day between 14 May and 3 August 2018 along a 39 m long transect. Three depth intervals in the top 10 cm were sampled at 30 positions with a higher resolution closer to the surface (0–1 and 1–4 cm depth vs. 4–10 cm). The sample analysis was carried out at two renowned stable water isotope laboratories that produced isotope data with the overall highest uncertainty of 0.09 ‰ for δ18O and 0.8 ‰ for δD. This unique dataset shows the strongest δ18O variability closest to the surface, damped and delayed variations in the lowest layer, and a trend towards increasing homogeneity towards the end of the season, especially in the deepest layer. Additional information on the snow height and its temporal changes suggests a non-uniform spatial imprint of the seasonal climatic information in this area, potentially following the stratigraphic noise of the surface. The data can be used to study the relation between snow height (changes) and the imprint and preservation of the isotopic composition at a site with 10–14 cm w.e. yr−1 accumulation. The high-temporal-resolution sampling allows additional analyses on (post-)depositional processes, such as vapour–snow exchange. The data can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.956626 (Zuhr et al., 2023a). 〈/jats:p〉

Description: The subglacial landscape of Antarctica records and influences the behaviour of its overlying ice sheet. However, in many places, the evolution of the landscape and its control on ice sheet behaviour have not been investigated in detail. Using recently released radio-echo sounding data, we investigate the subglacial landscape of the Evans–Rutford region of West Antarctica. Following quantitative analysis of the landscape morphology under ice-loaded and ice-unloaded conditions, we identify 10 flat surfaces distributed across the region. Across these 10 surfaces, we identify two distinct populations based on clustering of elevations, which potentially represent remnants of regionally coherent pre-glacial surfaces underlying the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). The surfaces are bounded by deeply incised glacial troughs, some of which have potential tectonic controls. We assess two hypotheses for the evolution of the regional landscape: (1) passive-margin evolution associated with the break-up of the Gondwana supercontinent or (2) an extensive planation surface that may have been uplifted in association with either the West Antarctic Rift System or cessation of subduction at the base of the Antarctic Peninsula. We suggest that passive-margin evolution is the most likely of these two mechanisms, with the erosion of glacial troughs adjacent to, and incising, the flat surfaces likely having coincided with the growth of the WAIS. These flat surfaces also demonstrate similarities to other identified surfaces, indicating that a similar formational process may have been acting more widely around the Weddell Sea embayment. The subsequent fluctuations of ice flow, basal thermal regime, and erosion patterns of the WAIS are therefore controlled by the regional tectonic structures.

Description: Data assimilation is a common technique employed to estimate the state and its associated uncertainties in numerical models. Ensemble-based methods are a prevalent choice, although they can be computationally expensive due to the required ensemble integrations. In this study, we enhance the capabilities of the Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF (WRF-ARW) model by coupling it with the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF) in a fully online mode. Through minimal modifications to the WRF-ARW model code, we have developed an efficient data assimilation system. This system leverages parallelization and in-memory data transfers between the model and data assimilation processes, greatly reducing the need for file I/O and model restarts during assimilation. We detail the necessary program modifications in this study. One advantage of the resulting assimilation system is a clear separation of concerns between data assimilation method development and model application resulting from PDAF's model-Agnostic structure. To evaluate the assimilation system, we conduct a twin experiment simulating an idealized tropical cyclone. Cycled data assimilation experiments focus on the impact of temperature profiles. The assimilation not only significantly enhances temperature field accuracy but also improves the initial U and V fields. The assimilation process introduces only minimal overhead in runtime when compared to the model without data assimilation and exhibits excellent parallel performance. Consequently, the online WRF-PDAF system emerges as an efficient framework for implementing high-resolution mesoscale forecasting and reanalysis.

Description: 〈jats:p〉Extensive ice coverage largely prevents investigations of Antarctica’s unglaciated past. Knowledge about environmental and tectonic development before large-scale glaciation, however, is important for understanding the transition into the modern icehouse world. We report geochronological and sedimentological data from a drill core from the Amundsen Sea shelf, providing insights into tectonic and topographic conditions during the Eocene (~44 to 34 million years ago), shortly before major ice sheet buildup. Our findings reveal the Eocene as a transition period from >40 million years of relative tectonic quiescence toward reactivation of the West Antarctic Rift System, coinciding with incipient volcanism, rise of the Transantarctic Mountains, and renewed sedimentation under temperate climate conditions. The recovered sediments were deposited in a coastal-estuarine swamp environment at the outlet of a >1500-km-long transcontinental river system, draining from the rising Transantarctic Mountains into the Amundsen Sea. Much of West Antarctica hence lied above sea level, but low topographic relief combined with low elevation inhibited widespread ice sheet formation.〈/jats:p〉

Description: One of Earth’s most fundamental climate shifts – the greenhouse-icehouse transition 34 Ma ago – initiated Antarctic ice-sheet build-up, influencing global climate until today. However, the extent of the ice sheet during the Early Oligocene Glacial Maximum (~33.7–33.2 Ma) that immediately followed this transition, a critical knowledge gap for assessing feedbacks between permanently glaciated areas and early Cenozoic global climate reorganization, is uncertain. Here, we present shallow-marine drilling data constraining earliest Oligocene environmental conditions on West Antarctica’s Pacific margin – a key region for understanding Antarctic ice sheet-evolution. These data indicate a cool-temperate environment, with mild ocean and air temperatures preventing West Antarctic Ice Sheet formation. Climate-ice sheet modeling corroborates a highly asymmetric Antarctic ice sheet, thereby revealing its differential regional response to past and future climatic change.

Description: The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream has recently seen significant change to its floating margins and has been identified as vulnerable to future climate warming. Inflow of warm Atlantic Intermediate Water (AIW) from the continental shelf has been observed in the vicinity of the Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden (79gg€¯N) Glacier calving front, but AIW penetration deep into the ice shelf cavity has not been observed directly. Here, we report temperature and salinity measurements from profiles in an epishelf lake, which provide the first direct evidence of AIW proximal to the grounding line of 79gg€¯N Glacier, over 50g€¯km from the calving front. We also report evidence for partial un-grounding of the margin of 79gg€¯N Glacier taking place at the western end of the epishelf lake. Comparison of our measurements to those close to the calving front shows that AIW transits the cavity to reach the grounding line within a few months. The observations provide support for modelling studies that infer AIW-driven basal melt proximal to the grounding line and demonstrate that offshore oceanographic changes can be rapidly transmitted throughout the sub-ice-shelf cavity, with implications for near-future stability of the ice stream.

Description: The European Beyond EPICA project aims to extract a continuous ice core of up to 1.5 Ma, with a maximum age density of 20 kyr m-1 at Little Dome C (LDC). We present a 1D numerical model which calculates the age of the ice around Dome C. The model inverts for basal conditions and accounts either for melting or for a layer of stagnant ice above the bedrock. It is constrained by internal reflecting horizons traced in radargrams and dated using the EPICA Dome C (EDC) ice core age profile. We used three different radar datasets ranging from a 10 000 km2 airborne survey down to 5 km long ground-based radar transects over LDC. We find that stagnant ice exists in many places, including above the LDC relief where the new Beyond EPICA drill site (BELDC) is located. The modelled thickness of this layer of stagnant ice roughly corresponds to the thickness of the basal unit observed in one of the radar surveys and in the autonomous phase-sensitive radio-echo sounder (ApRES) dataset. At BELDC, the modelled stagnant ice thickness is 198±44 m and the modelled oldest age of ice is 1.45±0.16 Ma at a depth of 2494±30 m. This is very similar to all sites situated on the LDC relief, including that of the Million Year Ice Core project being conducted by the Australian Antarctic Division. The model was also applied to radar data in the area 10-15 km north of EDC (North Patch), where we find either a thin layer of stagnant ice (generally 〈60 m) or a negligible melt rate (〈0.1 mm yr-1). The modelled maximum age at North Patch is over 2 Ma in most places, with ice at 1.5 Ma having a resolution of 9-12 kyr m-1, making it an exciting prospect for a future Oldest Ice drill site.

Description: Impurities in polar ice play a critical role in ice flow, deformation, and the integrity of the ice core record. Especially cloudy bands, visible layers with high impurity concentrations, are prominent features in ice from glacial periods. Their physical and chemical properties are poorly understood, highlighting the need to analyse them in more detail. We bridge the gap between decimetre and micrometre scales by combining the visual stratigraphy line scanner, fabric analyser, microstructure mapping, Raman spectroscopy, and laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry 2D impurity imaging. We classified approximately 1300 cloudy bands from glacial ice from the East Greenland Ice-core Project (EGRIP) ice core into seven different types. We determine the localisation and mineralogy of more than 1000 micro-inclusions at 13 depths. The majority of the minerals found are related to terrestrial dust, such as quartz, feldspar, mica, and hematite. We further found carbonaceous particles, dolomite, and gypsum in high abundance. Rutile, anatase, epidote, titanite, and grossular are infrequently observed. The 2D impurity imaging at 20μm resolution revealed that cloudy bands are clearly distinguishable in the chemical data. Na, Mg, and Sr are mainly present at grain boundaries, whereas dust-related analytes, such as Al, Fe, and Ti, are located in the grain interior, forming clusters of insoluble impurities. We present novel vast micrometre-resolution insights into cloudy bands and describe the differences within and outside these bands. Combining the visual and chemical data results in new insights into the formation of different cloudy band types and could be the starting point for future in-depth studies on impurity signal integrity and internal deformation in deep polar ice cores.

Description: Low-level airborne observations of the Arctic surface radiative energy budget are discussed. We fo- cus on the terrestrial part of the budget, quantified by the thermal-infrared net irradiance (TNI). The data were collected in cloudy and cloud-free conditions over and in the vicinity of the marginal sea ice zone (MIZ) close to Svalbard during two aircraft campaigns conducted in the spring of 2019 and in the early summer of 2017. The measurements, complemented by ground-based observations available from the literature and radiative transfer simulations, are used to evaluate the influence of surface type (sea ice, open ocean, MIZ), seasonal characteris- tics, and synoptically driven meridional air mass transports into and out of the Arctic on the near-surface TNI. The analysis reveals a typical four-mode structure of the frequency distribution of the TNI as a function of sur- face albedo, the sea ice fraction, and surface brightness temperature. Two modes prevail over sea ice and another two over open ocean, each representing cloud-free and cloudy radiative states. Characteristic shifts and modifi- cations of the TNI modes during the transition from winter to spring and early summer conditions are discussed. Furthermore, the influence of warm air intrusions (WAIs) and marine cold-air outbreaks (MCAOs) on the near- surface downward thermal-infrared irradiances and the TNI is highlighted for several case studies. It is concluded that during WAIs the surface warming depends on cloud properties and evolution. Lifted clouds embedded in warmer air masses over a colder sea ice surface, decoupled from the ground by a surface-based temperature inversion, have the potential to warm the surface more strongly than near-surface fog or thin low-level boundary layer clouds because of a higher cloud base temperature. For MCAOs it is found that the thermodynamic profile of the southward-moving air mass adapts only slowly to the warmer ocean surface.

Description: The effect that sea ice topography has on the mo- mentum transfer between ice and atmosphere is not fully quantified due to the vast extent of the Arctic and limita- tions of current measurement techniques. Here we present a method to estimate pan-Arctic momentum transfer via a pa- rameterization that links sea ice–atmosphere form drag coef- ficients with surface feature height and spacing. We measure these sea ice surface feature parameters using the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2). Though ICESat-2 is unable to resolve as well as airborne surveys, it has a higher along-track spatial resolution than other contemporary al- timeter satellites. As some narrow obstacles are effectively smoothed out by the ICESat-2 ATL07 spatial resolution, we use near-coincident high-resolution Airborne Topographic Mapper (ATM) elevation data from NASA’s Operation Ice- Bridge (OIB) mission to scale up the regional ICESat-2 drag estimates. By also incorporating drag due to open water, floe edges and sea ice skin drag, we produced a time series of average total pan-Arctic neutral atmospheric drag coefficient estimates from November 2018 to May 2022. Here we have observed its temporal evolution to be unique and not directly tied to sea ice extent. By also mapping 3-month aggregates for the years 2019, 2020 and 2021 for better regional anal- ysis, we found the thick multiyear ice area directly north of the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland to be consistently above 2.0 × 10 −3 , while most of the multiyear ice portion of the Arctic is typically around 1.5 × 10 −3 .

Description: In order to quantify the relative importance of individual boundary conditions and forcings, including greenhouse gases, ice sheets, and Earth’s orbital parameters, on determining Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate, we have performed a series of LGM experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model AWI-ESM, in which different combinations of boundary conditions and forcings have been applied following the protocol of Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4). In good agreement with observational proxy records, a general colder and drier climate is simulated in our full-forced LGM experiment as compared to the present-day simulation. Our simulated results from non-full-forced sensitivity simulations reveal that both the greenhouse gases and ice sheets play a major role in defining the anomalous LGM surface temperature compared to today. Decreased greenhouse gases in LGM as compared to present day leads to a non-uniform global cooling with polar amplification effect. The presence of LGM ice sheets favors a warming over the Arctic and northern Atlantic oceans in boreal winter, as well as a cooling over regions with the presence of ice sheets. The former is induced by a strengthening in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) transporting more heat to high latitudes, whilst the latter is due to the increased surface albedo and elevation of ice sheets. We find that the Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation is influenced by the opposing effects of LGM greenhouse gases and ice sheets. Specifically, the presence of ice sheets leads to significant drying in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions, while a reduction in greenhouse gases results in increased monsoon rainfall. Based on our model results, continental ice sheets exert a major control on atmospheric dynamics and the variability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Moreover, our analysis also implies a nonlinearity in climate response to LGM boundary conditions and forcings.

Description: Antarctic krill, crucial to the Southern Ocean ecosystem and a vital fisheries resource, is endangered by climate change. Identifying drivers of krill biomass is therefore essential for determining catch limits and designating protection zones. We present a modeling approach to pinpointing effects of sea surface temperature, ice cover, chlorophyll levels, climate indices, and intraspecific competition. Our study reveals that larval recruitment is driven by both competition among age classes and chlorophyll levels. In addition, while milder ice and temperature in spring and summer favor reproduction and early larval survival, both larvae and juveniles strongly benefit from heavier ice and colder temperatures in winter. We conclude that omitting top-down control of resources by krill is only acceptable for retrospective or single-year prognostic models that use field chlorophyll data but that incorporating intraspecific competition is essential for longer-term forecasts. Our findings can guide future krill modeling strategies, reinforcing the sustainability of this keystone species.

Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 127(8), (2022): e2021JB023814, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021jb023814.

Description: Early arrival traveltime tomography and full waveform inversion were conducted on downward continued streamer seismic data at Dante's Domes oceanic core complex (OCC), providing unprecedented details of shallow P wave velocity structure. Together with reverse time migration images, seafloor morphology, in situ geological samples, magnetic and gravity data, the seismic constraints are used to infer the lithological distribution along the seismic profiles. Based on the striking similarity in velocity structure beneath the corrugated domes with other OCCs and drilling results from Atlantis Massif, we confidently reconfirmed the Southern Dome as dominantly gabbroic rocks, and the Northern Dome as serpentinized peridotites. A series of isolated gabbroic bodies embedded in the diabase and basaltic layers is observed in the breakaway zone, suggesting that the initiation of Dante's Domes OCC occurred over a long period during which there were several failed attempts to form a long-lived detachment fault. This early development of the OCC probably occurred under a regime of alternating magma starvation and magma replenishment. The predominantly gabbroic section, beneath the Southern Dome and extending to termination, indicates the OCC has been created with relatively high magma flux. We also imaged distinct shallow subseafloor reflections which are also termed as D reflectors underneath the corrugated domes. The location of the D reflectors is similar to those in the Atlantis Massif, with depths well correlated with the top of exhumed gabbroic bodies and the discontinuities in the D reflectors between gabbroic bodies. Our findings contribute to the understanding of processes controlling the OCCs initiation and evolution at slow spreading ridges.

Description: This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (91858207), Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (GML2019ZD0205), and Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation (2021B1515020023). M. X. acknowledges support from Special Foundation for National Science and Technology Basic Research Program of China (2018FY100505), Guangdong NSF research team project (2017A030312002), K. C. Wong Education Foundation (GJTD-2018-13), and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Y4SL021001, QYZDY-SSWDQC005, 133244KYSB20180029, 131551KYSB20200021, and ISEE2021PY03). J. P. C. acknowledges support from the Independent Research and Development Program at WHOI.

Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 127(8),(2022): e2022JC018737, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jc018737.

Description: Gulf Stream Warm Core Rings (WCRs) have important influences on the New England Shelf and marine ecosystems. A 10-year (2011–2020) WCR dataset that tracks weekly WCR locations and surface areas is used here to identify the rings' path and characterize their movement between 55 and 75°W. The WCR dataset reveals a very narrow band between 66 and 71°W along which rings travel almost due west along ∼39°N across isobaths – the “Ring Corridor.” Then, west of the corridor, the mean path turns southwestward, paralleling the shelfbreak. The average ring translation speed along the mean path is 5.9 cm s−1. Long-lived rings (lifespan 〉150 days) tend to occupy the region west of the New England Seamount Chain (NESC) whereas short-lived rings (lifespan 〈150 days) tend to be more broadly distributed. WCR vertical structures, analyzed using available Argo float profiles indicate that rings that are formed to the west of the NESC have shallower thermoclines than those formed to the east. This tendency may be due to different WCR formation processes that are observed to occur along different sections of the Gulf Stream. WCRs formed to the east of the NESC tend to form from a pinch-off mechanism incorporating cores of Sargasso Sea water and a perimeter of Gulf Stream water. WCRs that form to the west of the NESC, form from a process called an aneurysm. WCRs formed through aneurysms comprise water mostly from the northern half of the Gulf Stream and are smaller than the classic pinch-off rings.

Description: AS and AG are grateful for financial support from NOAA (NA11NOS0120038), NSF (OCE-1851242 and OCE-2123283), SMAST, and UMass Dartmouth. GG was supported by NSF under grant OCE-1657853. MA was supported by NSF under grant OCE-2122726 and by ONR under grant N00014-22-1-2112.

Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Biasi, J., Asimow, P., Horton, F., & Boyes, X. Eruption rates, tempo, and stratigraphy of Paleocene flood basalts on Baffin Island, Canada. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 23(9), (2022): e2021GC010172, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gc010172.

Description: High-temperature melting in mantle plumes produces voluminous eruptions that are often temporally coincident with mass extinctions. Paleocene Baffin Island lavas—products of early Iceland mantle plume activity—are exceptionally well characterized geochemically but have poorly constrained stratigraphy, geochronology, and eruptive tempos. To provide better geologic context, we measured seven stratigraphic sections of the volcanic deposits and collected paleomagnetic data from 38 sites in the lavas and underlying Cretaceous sediments (Quqaluit Fm.). The average paleomagnetic pole from this study does not overlap with the expected pole for a stable North American locality at 60 Ma, yet the data have sufficient dispersion to average out secular variation. After ruling out other possibilities, we find that the picrites were probably erupted during a polarity transition, over less than 5 kyr. If so, the average eruption interval was ∼67 years per flow for the thickest sequence of exposed lavas. We also calculate that the flood basalts had a minimum total volume of ∼176 km3 (excluding submerged lavas in Baffin Bay). This implies a minimum eruption rate of ∼0.035 km3 yr−1, which is similar to rates found in West Greenland lavas but less than rates found in larger flood basalts. Despite this, the Baffin and West Greenland lavas temporally correlate with the “End C27n event” (a period of ∼2°C global warming) and may be its underlying cause.

Description: his work was supported by the National Science Foundation (award #1911699 to F. Horton and award #2052963 to J. Biasi), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research, a National Geographic Society grant (#CP4-144R-18), and internal funding from the Caltech Geological and Planetary Sciences Division.

Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 49(15), (2022): e2022GL099185, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl099185.

Description: Several large strike slip faults in central and northern California accommodate plate motions through aseismic creep. Although there is no consensus regarding the underlying cause of aseismic creep, aqueous fluids and mechanically weak, velocity-strengthening minerals appear to play a central role. This study integrates field observations and thermodynamic modeling to examine possible relationships between the occurrence of serpentinite, silica-carbonate rock, and CO2-rich aqueous fluids in creeping faults of California. Our models predict that carbonation of serpentinite leads to the formation of talc and magnesite, followed by silica-carbonate rock. While abundant exposures of silica-carbonate rock indicate complete carbonation, serpentinite-hosted CO2-rich spring fluids are strongly supersaturated with talc at elevated temperatures. Hence, carbonation of serpentinite is likely ongoing in parts of the San Andres Fault system and operates in conjunction with other modes of talc formation that may further enhance the potential for aseismic creep, thereby limiting the potential for large earthquakes.

Description: This work was supported by National Science Foundation (NSF) grants NSF-EAR-1220280 to F. K. and J. L., NSF-EAR-1219908 to D. G., and NSF-OCE-2001728 to J. L.

Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Marsay, C. M., Landing, W. M., Umstead, D., Till, C. P., Freiberger, R., Fitzsimmons, J. N., Lanning, N. T., Shiller, A. M., Hatta, M., Chmiel, R., Saito, M., & Buck, C. S. Does sea spray aerosol contribute significantly to aerosol trace element loading? a case study from the US GEOTRACES Pacific Meridional Transect (GP15). Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 36(8), (2022): e2022GB007416. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GB007416.

Description: Atmospheric deposition represents a major input for micronutrient trace elements (TEs) to the surface ocean and is often quantified indirectly through measurements of aerosol TE concentrations. Sea spray aerosol (SSA) dominates aerosol mass concentration over much of the global ocean, but few studies have assessed its contribution to aerosol TE loading, which could result in overestimates of “new” TE inputs. Low-mineral aerosol concentrations measured during the U.S. GEOTRACES Pacific Meridional Transect (GP15; 152°W, 56°N to 20°S), along with concurrent towfish sampling of surface seawater, provided an opportunity to investigate this aspect of TE biogeochemical cycling. Central Pacific Ocean surface seawater Al, V, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, and Pb concentrations were combined with aerosol Na data to calculate a “recycled” SSA contribution to aerosol TE loading. Only vanadium was calculated to have a SSA contribution averaging 〉1% along the transect (mean of 1.5%). We derive scaling factors from previous studies on TE enrichments in the sea surface microlayer and in freshly produced SSA to assess the broader potential for SSA contributions to aerosol TE loading. Maximum applied scaling factors suggest that SSA could contribute significantly to the aerosol loading of some elements (notably V, Cu, and Pb), while for others (e.g., Fe and Al), SSA contributions largely remained 〈1%. Our study highlights that a lack of focused measurements of TEs in SSA limits our ability to quantify this component of marine aerosol loading and the associated potential for overestimating new TE inputs from atmospheric deposition.

Description: This research was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) grants OCE-1756103 to C. S. Buck, OCE-1756104 to W. M. Landing, OCE-1737024 to A.M. Shiller, OCE-1736906 to M. Hatta, OCE-1736875 to C. P. Till, OCE-1737167 to J. N. Fitzsimmons, and OCE-1736599 to M. Saito. In addition, N. T. Lanning was supported by the NSF Graduate Research Fellowship Program award 1746932.

Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 127(8), (2022): e2022JB024497, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JB024497.

Description: During plastic deformation, strain weakening can be achieved, in part, via strain energy reduction associated with intragranular boundary development and grain boundary formation. Grain boundaries (in 2D) are segments between triple junctions, that connect to encircle grains; every boundary segment in the encircling loop has a high (〉10°) misorientation angle. Intragranular boundaries terminate within grains or dissect grains, usually containing boundary segments with a low (〈10°) misorientation angle. We analyze electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) data from ice deformed at −30°C (Th≈ 0.9). Misorientation and weighted Burgers vector (WBV) statistics are calculated along planar intragranular boundaries. Misorientation angles change markedly along each intragranular boundary, linking low- (〈10°) and high-angle (10–38°) segments that exhibit distinct misorientation axes and WBV directions. We suggest that these boundaries might be produced by the growth and intersection of individual intragranular boundary segments comprising dislocations with distinct slip systems. There is a fundamental difference between misorientation axis distributions of intragranular boundaries (misorientation axes mostly confined to ice basal plane) and grain boundaries (no preferred misorientation axis). These observations suggest during progressive subgrain rotation, intragranular boundaries remain crystallographically controlled up to large misorientation angles (〉〉10°). In contrast, the apparent lack of crystallographic control for grain boundaries suggests misorientation axes become randomized, likely due to the activation of additional mechanisms (such as grain boundary sliding) after grain boundary formation, linking boundary segments to encircle a grain. Our findings on ice intragranular boundary development and grain boundary formation may apply more broadly to other rock-forming minerals (e.g., olivine, quartz).

Description: This work was supported by a NASA fund (Grant No. NNX15AM69G) to David L. Goldsby and two Marsden Funds of the Royal Society of New Zealand (Grant Nos. UOO1116, UOO052) to David J. Prior. Sheng Fan was supported by the University of Otago doctoral scholarship, the Antarctica New Zealand doctoral scholarship, a research grant from New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment through the Antarctic Science Platform (ANTA1801) (Grant No. ASP-023-03), and a New Zealand Antarctic Research Institute (NZARI) Early Career Researcher Seed Grant (Grant No. NZARI 2020-1-5). Open access publishing facilitated by University of Otago, as part of the Wiley – University of Otago agreement via the Council of Australian University Librarians.

Description: In the past decade groundbreaking new satellite observations of the Arctic sea ice cover have been made, allowing researchers to understand the state of the Arctic sea ice system in greater detail than before. The derived estimates of sea ice thickness are useful but limited in time and space. In this study the first results of a new sea ice data assimilation system are presented. Observations assimilated (in various combinations) are monthly mean sea ice thickness and monthly mean sea ice thickness distribution from CryoSat-2 and NASA daily Bootstrap sea ice concentration. This system couples the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling's (CPOM) version of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE) to the localised ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) from the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF) library. The impact of assimilating a sub-grid-scale sea ice thickness distribution is of particular novelty. The sub-grid-scale sea ice thickness distribution is a fundamental component of sea ice models, playing a vital role in the dynamical and thermodynamical processes, yet very little is known of its true state in the Arctic. This study finds that assimilating CryoSat-2 products for the mean thickness and the sub-grid-scale thickness distribution can have significant consequences for the modelled distribution of the ice thickness across the Arctic and particularly in regions of thick multi-year ice. The assimilation of sea ice concentration, mean sea ice thickness and sub-grid-scale sea ice thickness distribution together performed best when compared to a subset of CryoSat-2 observations held back for validation. Regional model biases are reduced: the thickness of the thickest ice in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) is decreased, but the thickness of the ice in the central Arctic is increased. When comparing the assimilation of mean thickness with the assimilation of sub-grid-scale thickness distribution, it is found that the latter leads to a significant change in the volume of ice in each category. Estimates of the thickest ice improve significantly with the assimilation of sub-grid-scale thickness distribution alongside mean thickness.

Description: Arctic sea ice has declined in all seasons accompanied by rapid atmospheric warming. Here, the focus lies on the wider Fram Strait region where the connection between trends in observed near-surface variables (temperature, humidity, wind speed) and local sea ice conditions are analyzed. Reanalysis data from ERA5 and MERRA-2 and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager ARTIST Sea Ice (SSM/I-ASI) sea ice concentrations for the winters of 1992 to 2022 are used for the analyses. Two focus regions are identified for which trends are largest. In the western Nansen Basin (WNB), sea ice cover decreased by -10% per decade with especially large open water areas in 2022, and temperature and humidity increased by up to 3.7K and 0.29 gkg-1 per decade, respectively. In the Greenland sea region (GRL), trends were slightly smaller, with -4.7% per decade for sea ice and up to 1.3K and 0.15 gkg -1 per decade for temperature and humidity. Trends for wind speed were mostly not significant. As a next step, two typical flow directions for this region were studied: cold-air outbreaks with northerly winds originating from ice covered areas (off-ice flow) and warm-air intrusions with southerly winds from open ocean regions (onice flow). To identify possible relationships between sea ice changes and atmospheric trends, correlation maps were calculated, and the results for off- and on-ice flow were compared. Up to two thirds of the observed temperature and humidity variability in both regions are related to upstream sea ice variability and an influence of sea ice cover is still present up to 500 km downstream of the ice edge. In the marginal sea ice zone the impact of a decreasing sea ice cover in this region is largest for off-ice flow conditions during cold-air outbreaks.

Description: 〈jats:p〉Arctic Ocean gateway fluxes play a crucial role in linking the Arctic with the global ocean and affecting climate and marine ecosystems. We reviewed past studies on Arctic–Subarctic ocean linkages and examined their changes and driving mechanisms. Our review highlights that radical changes occurred in the inflows and outflows of the Arctic Ocean during the 2010s. Specifically, the Pacific inflow temperature in the Bering Strait and Atlantic inflow temperature in the Fram Strait hit record highs, while the Pacific inflow salinity in the Bering Strait and Arctic outflow salinity in the Davis and Fram straits hit record lows. Both the ocean heat convergence from lower latitudes to the Arctic and the hydrological cycle connecting the Arctic with Subarctic seas were stronger in 2000–2020 than in 1980–2000. CMIP6 models project a continuing increase in poleward ocean heat convergence in the 21st century, mainly due to warming of inflow waters. They also predict an increase in freshwater input to the Arctic Ocean, with the largest increase in freshwater export expected to occur in the Fram Strait due to both increased ocean volume export and decreased salinity. Fram Strait sea ice volume export hit a record low in the 2010s and is projected to continue to decrease along with Arctic sea ice decline. We quantitatively attribute the variability of the volume, heat, and freshwater transports in the Arctic gateways to forcing within and outside the Arctic based on dedicated numerical simulations and emphasize the importance of both origins in driving the variability.〈/jats:p〉

Description: We present measurements of soil CO2 effluxes combined with soil (222Rn) and (220Rn) from two high-degassing areas on the lower flanks of Mt. Etna volcano (ZE-SV on the E flank and PAT on the SW flank). Measurements were conducted periodically from June 2006 to January 2009 in the ZE-SV area and January 2007 to January 2009 in the PAT area. The results showed significant variations in discharge activity and style. Log values of (220Rn)/(222Rn) and CO2 efflux generally follow a negative correlation, herein parameterized as the Soil Gas Disequilibrium Index (SGDI). Deviations of the SGDI from this negative correlation provide insight into variance of localized and shallow system conditions, namely rock fracturing, residual magma degassing, and near surface interactions between magmatic gases and groundwater. Statistical analysis highlighted signal anomalies, both negative and positive, that were modeled according to the physical properties and the modes of transport for each of the SGDI gas components. The revealed anomalies show correspondence with episodes of magma ascent and eruption, thereby demonstrating the potential of using the SGDI as another instrument for forecasting volcanic activity. An important strength of the SGDI, compared to other magma gas proxies like CO2 or SO2, is that the very short and very different half-lives of 222Rn (t1/2 = 3.85 days) and 220Rn (t1/2 = 55 seconds) provide unique information on the timescales of soil gas transport. Coupling the SGDI with other pre-eruptive proxies enhances the volcanological community’s response capabilities, which is critical for effective hazard mitigation.

Description: Published

Description: 167-202

Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi

Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Yamamoto, A., Nonaka, M., Martineau, P., Yamazaki, A., Kwon, Y.-O., Nakamura, H., & Taguchi, B. Oceanic moisture sources contributing to wintertime Euro-Atlantic blocking. Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2(3), (2021): 819–840, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-819-2021.

Description: Although conventionally attributed to dry dynamics, increasing evidence points to a key role of moist dynamics in the formation and maintenance of blocking events. The source of moisture crucial for these processes, however, remains elusive. In this study, we identify the moisture sources responsible for latent heating associated with the wintertime Euro-Atlantic blocking events detected over 31 years (1979–2010). To this end, we track atmospheric particles backward in time from the blocking centres for a period of 10 d using an offline Lagrangian dispersion model applied to atmospheric reanalysis data. The analysis reveals that 28 %–55 % of particles gain heat and moisture from the ocean over the course of 10 d, with higher percentages for the lower altitudes from which particles are released. Via large-scale ascent, these moist particles transport low-potential-vorticity (PV) air of low-altitude, low-latitude origins into the upper troposphere, where the amplitude of blocking is the most prominent, in agreement with previous studies. The PV of these moist particles remains significantly lower compared to their dry counterparts throughout the course of 10 d, preferentially constituting blocking cores. Further analysis reveals that approximately two-thirds of the moist particles source their moisture locally from the Atlantic, while the remaining one-third of moist particles source it from the Pacific. There is also a small fraction of moist particles that take up moisture from both the Pacific and Atlantic basins, which undergo a large-scale uplift over the Atlantic using moisture picked up over both basins. The Gulf Stream and Kuroshio and their extensions as well as the eastern Pacific northeast of Hawaii not only provide heat and moisture to moist particles but also act as “springboards” for their large-scale, cross-isentropic ascent, where its extent strongly depends on the humidity content at the time of the ascent. While the particles of Atlantic origin swiftly ascend just before their arrival at blocking, those of Pacific origin begin their ascent a few days earlier, after which they carry low-PV air in the upper troposphere while undergoing radiative cooling just as dry particles. A previous study identified a blocking maintenance mechanism, whereby low-PV air is selectively absorbed into blocking systems to prolong blocking lifetime. As they used an isentropic trajectory analysis, this mechanism was regarded as a dry process. We found that these moist particles that are fuelled over the Pacific can also act to maintain blocks in the same manner, revealing that what appears to be a blocking maintenance mechanism governed by dry dynamics alone can, in fact, be of moist origin.

Description: This research has been supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) (grant nos. JP19H05701, JP19H05702, JP19H05703, JP19H05704 on Innovative Areas 6102, and JP20H01970), the Japan Science and Technology Agency through Belmont Forum CRA “InterDec” and COI-NEXT (grant no. JPMJPF2013), the Japanese Ministry of Environment through the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (grant no. JPMEERF20192004), the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) through the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS and ARCS II; grant nos. JPMXD1300000000 and JPMXD1420318865) programmes, the Japanese Ministry of Environment through the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (grant no. 2-1904), the US NSF Climate & Large Scale Dynamics Program (grant no. AGS-2040073), and the US DOE CESD Regional and Gloabal Model Analysis programme (grant no. DE-SC0019492). Patrick Martineau was partly supported by Grant-in-Aid for JSPS Research Fellows.

Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Fabbrizzi, A., Parnell‐Turner, R., Gregg, P., Fornari, D., Perfit, M., Wanless, V., & Anderson, M. Relative timing of off‐axis volcanism from sediment thickness estimates on the 8°20’N seamount chain, East Pacific Rise. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 23(9), (2022): e2022GC010335, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gc010335.

Description: Volcanic seamount chains on the flanks of mid-ocean ridges record variability in magmatic processes associated with mantle melting over several millions of years. However, the relative timing of magmatism on individual seamounts along a chain can be difficult to estimate without in situ sampling and is further hampered by Ar40/Ar39 dating limitations. The 8°20’N seamount chain extends ∼170 km west from the fast-spreading East Pacific Rise (EPR), north of and parallel to the western Siqueiros fracture zone. Here, we use multibeam bathymetric data to investigate relationships between abyssal hill formation and seamount volcanism, transform fault slip, and tectonic rotation. Near-bottom compressed high-intensity radiated pulse, bathymetric, and sidescan sonar data collected with the autonomous underwater vehicle Sentry are used to test the hypothesis that seamount volcanism is age-progressive along the seamount chain. Although sediment on seamount flanks is likely to be reworked by gravitational mass-wasting and current activity, bathymetric relief and Sentry vehicle heading analysis suggest that sedimentary accumulations on seamount summits are likely to be relatively pristine. Sediment thickness on the seamounts' summits does not increase linearly with nominal crustal age, as would be predicted if seamounts were constructed proximal to the EPR axis and then aged as the lithosphere cooled and subsided away from the ridge. The thickest sediments are found at the center of the chain, implying the most ancient volcanism there, rather than on seamounts furthest from the EPR. The nonlinear sediment thickness along the 8°20’N seamounts suggests that volcanism can persist off-axis for several million years.

Description: This work was supported by National Science Foundation awards OCE-1356610, OCE-1356822, OCE-1357150, OCE-1754419, OCE-1834797, OCE-2001314, and OCE-2001331.

Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 48(19), (2021): e2021GL095088, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095088.

Description: The physical circulation of the Southern Ocean sets the surface concentration and thus air-sea exchange of CO2. However, we have a limited understanding of the three-dimensional circulation that brings deep carbon-rich waters to the surface. Here, we introduce and analyze a novel high-resolution ocean model simulation with active biogeochemistry and online Lagrangian particle tracking. We focus our attention on a subset of particles with high dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) that originate below 1,000 m and eventually upwell into the near-surface layer (upper 200 m). We find that 71% of the DIC-enriched water upwelling across 1,000 m is concentrated near topographic features, which occupy just 33% of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Once particles upwell to the near-surface layer, they exhibit relatively uniform pCO2 levels and DIC decorrelation timescales, regardless of their origin. Our results show that Southern Ocean bathymetry plays a key role in delivering carbon-rich waters to the surface.

Description: Riley X. Brady was supported by the Department of Energy's Computational Science Graduate Fellowship (DE-FG02-97ER25308), and particularly benefited from the fellowship's summer practicum at Los Alamos National Lab. Nicole S. Lovenduski and Riley X. Brady were further supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Biological and Environmental Research program (DE-SC0022243) and by the National Science Foundation (NSF-PLR 1543457; NSF-OCE 1924636; NSF-OCE 1752724; NSF-OCE 1558225). Mathew E. Maltrud and Phillip J. Wolfram were supported as part of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research. This research used resources provided by the Los Alamos National Laboratory Institutional Computing Program, which is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy National Nuclear Security Administration under Contract No. 89233218CNA000001.

Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Seltzer, A. M., & Tyne, R. L. Retrieving a “Weather Balloon” from the last Ice Age. AGU Advances, 3(4), (2022): e2022AV000747, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022AV000747.

Description: “How cold was the last ice age?” is a question that paleoclimate scientists have been trying to answer for decades. Constraining the magnitude of climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum (∼20,000 years ago) can help improve our understanding of Earth's climate sensitivity and, therefore enhance our ability to predict future change (Tierney et al., 2020). Of course, there is no single answer to this question: there is spatial structure to LGM temperature change that is linked to fundamental climate system properties and processes. Consequently, paleoclimate scientists have focused on variations of this question, like “What was the latitudinal gradient of LGM temperature change?” (Chiang et al., 2003), “What was the land-sea contrast?” (Rind & Peteet, 1985) or “What was the change in ocean heat content?” (Bereiter et al., 2018). These questions inform large-scale atmospheric and oceanic circulation, the intensity of the water cycle, and planetary energy balance; the answers to these questions come from proxies like planktic and benthic foraminifera, speleothems, ice cores, pollen records, ancient groundwater, lake sediments, and glacial moraines, to name a few. In short, the paleoclimate community has developed a proxy “tool kit” equipped to map changes across the Earth's surface and into the ocean interior; but, until now, no “tool” existed for the upper atmosphere.

Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 36(8), (2022): e2022GB007320, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GB007320.

Description: Biogeochemical cycles in the Arctic Ocean are sensitive to the transport of materials from continental shelves into central basins by sea ice. However, it is difficult to assess the net effect of this supply mechanism due to the spatial heterogeneity of sea ice content. Manganese (Mn) is a micronutrient and tracer which integrates source fluctuations in space and time while retaining seasonal variability. The Arctic Ocean surface Mn maximum is attributed to freshwater, but studies struggle to distinguish sea ice and river contributions. Informed by observations from 2009 IPY and 2015 Canadian GEOTRACES cruises, we developed a three-dimensional dissolved Mn model within a 1/12° coupled ocean-ice model centered on the Canada Basin and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA). Simulations from 2002 to 2019 indicate that annually, 87%–93% of Mn contributed to the Canada Basin upper ocean is released by sea ice, while rivers, although locally significant, contribute only 2.2%–8.5%. Downstream, sea ice provides 34% of Mn transported from Parry Channel into Baffin Bay. While rivers are often considered the main source of Mn, our findings suggest that in the Canada Basin they are less important than sea ice. However, within the shelf-dominated CAA, both rivers and sediment resuspension are important. Climate-induced disruption of the transpolar drift may reduce the Canada Basin Mn maximum and supply downstream. Other micronutrients found in sediments, such as Fe, may be similarly affected. These results highlight the vulnerability of the biogeochemical supply mechanisms in the Arctic Ocean and the subpolar seas to climatic changes.

Description: This work was funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Climate Change and Atmospheric Research Grant: GEOTRACES (RGPCC 433848-12) and VITALS (RGPCC 433898), an NSERC Discovery Grant (RGPIN-2016-03865) to SEA, and by the University of British Columbia through a four year fellowship to BR. Computing resources were provided by Compute Canada (RRG 2648 RAC 2019, RRG 2969 RAC 2020, and RRG 1541 RAC 2021).

Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Shinevar, W., Jagoutz, O., & Behn, M. WISTFUL: whole‐rock interpretative seismic toolbox for ultramafic lithologies. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 23(8), (2022): e2022GC010329, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gc010329.

Description: To quantitatively convert upper mantle seismic wave speeds measured into temperature, density, composition, and corresponding and uncertainty, we introduce the Whole-rock Interpretative Seismic Toolbox For Ultramafic Lithologies (WISTFUL). WISTFUL is underpinned by a database of 4,485 ultramafic whole-rock compositions, their calculated mineral modes, elastic moduli, and seismic wave speeds over a range of pressure (P) and temperature (T) (P = 0.5–6 GPa, T = 200–1,600°C) using the Gibbs free energy minimization routine Perple_X. These data are interpreted with a toolbox of MATLAB® functions, scripts, and three general user interfaces: WISTFUL_relations, which plots relationships between calculated parameters and/or composition; WISTFUL_geotherms, which calculates seismic wave speeds along geotherms; and WISTFUL_inversion, which inverts seismic wave speeds for best-fit temperature, composition, and density. To evaluate our methodology and quantify the forward calculation error, we estimate two dominant sources of uncertainty: (a) the predicted mineral modes and compositions, and (b) the elastic properties and mixing equations. To constrain the first source of uncertainty, we compiled 122 well-studied ultramafic xenoliths with known whole-rock compositions, mineral modes, and estimated P-T conditions. We compared the observed mineral modes with modes predicted using five different thermodynamic solid solution models. The Holland et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1093/petrology/egy048) solution models best reproduce phase assemblages (∼12 vol. % phase root-mean-square error [RMSE]) and estimated wave speeds. To assess the second source of uncertainty, we compared wave speed measurements of 40 ultramafic rocks with calculated wave speeds, finding excellent agreement (Vp RMSE = 0.11 km/s). WISTFUL easily analyzes seismic datasets, integrates into modeling, and acts as an educational tool.

Description: Funding for this study was provided by NSF Grants EAR-17-22935 (OJ) and EAR-18-44340 (MB).

Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 36(9), (2022): e2021GB007145, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gb007145.

Description: In this study, we compare mechanistic and empirical approaches to reconstruct the air-sea flux of biological oxygen (F[O2]bio-as) by parameterizing the physical oxygen saturation anomaly (ΔO2[phy]) in order to separate the biological contribution from total oxygen. The first approach matches ΔO2[phy] to the monthly climatology of the argon saturation anomaly from a global ocean circulation model's output. The second approach derives ΔO2[phy] from an iterative mass balance model forced by satellite-based physical drivers of ΔO2[phy] prior to the sampling day by assuming that air-sea interactions are the dominant factors driving the surface ΔO2[phy]. The final approach leverages the machine-learning technique of Genetic Programming (GP) to search for the functional relationship between ΔO2[phy] and biophysicochemical parameters. We compile simultaneous measurements of O2/Ar and O2 concentration from 14 cruises to train the GP algorithm and test the validity and applicability of our modeled ΔO2[phy] and F[O2]bio-as. Among the approaches, the GP approach, which incorporates ship-based measurements and historical records of physical parameters from the reanalysis products, provides the most robust predictions (R2 = 0.74 for ΔO2[phy] and 0.72 for F[O2]bio-as; RMSE = 1.4% for ΔO2[phy] and 7.1 mmol O2 m−2 d−1 for F[O2]bio-as). We use the empirical formulation derived from GP approach to reconstruct regional, inter-annual, and decadal variability of F[O2]bio-as based on historical oxygen records. Overall, our study represents a first attempt at deriving F[O2]bio-as from snapshot measurements of oxygen, thereby paving the way toward using historical O2 data and a rapidly growing number of O2 measurements on autonomous platforms for independent insight into the biological pump.

Description: N. Cassar was supported by the “Laboratoire d'Excellence” LabexMER (ANR-10-LABX-19) and co-funded by a grant from the French government under the program “Investissements d'Avenir.” Y. Huang was supported by grants from the China NSF (Nos. 42130401 and 42141002). Y. Huang was also partly supported by Chinese State Scholarship Fund to study at Duke University as a joint PhD student (No. 201806310052). R. Eveleth was supported by the NSF GRFP under grant (No. 1106401). D. Nicholson was supported by the NSF OCE-1129973 and OCE-1923915.

Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Sayani, H., Cobb, K., Monteleone, B., & Bridges, H. Accuracy and reproducibility of coral Sr/Ca SIMS timeseries in modern and fossil corals. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems, 23(9), (2022): e2021GC010068, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021gc010068.

Description: Coral strontium-to-calcium ratios (Sr/Ca) provide quantitative estimates of past sea surface temperatures (SST) that allow for the reconstruction of changes in the mean state and climate variations, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, through time. However, coral Sr/Ca ratios are highly susceptible to diagenesis, which can impart artifacts of 1–2°C that are typically on par with the tropical climate signals of interest. Microscale sampling via Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (SIMS) for the sampling of primary skeletal material in altered fossil corals, providing much-needed checks on fossil coral Sr/Ca-based paleotemperature estimates. In this study, we employ a set modern and fossil corals from Palmyra Atoll, in the central tropical Pacific, to quantify the accuracy and reproducibility of SIMS Sr/Ca analyses relative to bulk Sr/Ca analyses. In three overlapping modern coral samples, we reproduce bulk Sr/Ca estimates within ±0.3% (1σ). We demonstrate high fidelity between 3-month smoothed SIMS coral Sr/Ca timeseries and SST (R = −0.5 to −0.8; p 〈 0.5). For lightly-altered sections of a young fossil coral from the early-20th century, SIMS Sr/Ca timeseries reproduce bulk Sr/Ca timeseries, in line with our results from modern corals. Across a moderately-altered section of the same fossil coral, where diagenesis yields bulk Sr/Ca estimates that are 0.6 mmol too high (roughly equivalent to −6°C artifacts in SST), SIMS Sr/Ca timeseries track instrumental SST timeseries. We conclude that 3–4 SIMS analyses per month of coral growth can provide a much-needed quantitative check on the accuracy of fossil coral Sr/Ca-derived estimates of paleotemperature, even in moderately altered samples.

Description: We'd also like to thank Yolande Berta and Georgia Tech's Center for Nanostructure Characterization for providing access to their SEM facilities, and the Khaled bin Sultan Living Ocean Foundation and The Nature Conservancy for financial and logistical support for field excursions to Palmyra. Funding for this work was provided by the National Science Foundation (Award Numbers 1502832 and 2002458 to K.M.C) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Award Number: NA11OAR4310165 to K.M.C).

Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Tarry, D., Ruiz, S., Johnston, T., Poulain, P., Özgökmen, T., Centurioni, L., Berta, M., Esposito, G., Farrar, J., Mahadevan, A., & Pascual, A. Drifter observations reveal intense vertical velocity in a surface ocean front. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(18), (2022): e2022GL098969, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl098969.

Description: Measuring vertical motions represent a challenge as they are typically 3–4 orders of magnitude smaller than the horizontal velocities. Here, we show that surface vertical velocities are intensified at submesoscales and are dominated by high frequency variability. We use drifter observations to calculate divergence and vertical velocities in the upper 15 m of the water column at two different horizontal scales. The drifters, deployed at the edge of a mesoscale eddy in the Alboran Sea, show an area of strong convergence (urn:x-wiley:00948276:media:grl64766:grl64766-math-0001(f)) associated with vertical velocities of −100 m day−1. This study shows that a multilayered-drifter array can be an effective tool for estimating vertical velocity near the ocean surface.

Description: This research was supported by the Office of Naval Research (ONR) Departmental Research Initiative CALYPSO under program officers Terri Paluszkiewicz and Scott Harper. The authors' ONR Grant No. are as follows: DT, SR, AM, and AP N000141613130, TMSJ N000146101612470, PP N000141812418, TO N000141812138, LRC N000141712517, and N00014191269, MB and GE N000141812782 and N000141812039, and JTF N000141812431.

Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Biasi, J., Tivey, M., & Fluegel, B. Volcano monitoring with magnetic measurements: a simulation of eruptions at axial seamount, Kilauea, Baroarbunga, and Mount Saint Helens. Geophysical Research Letters, 49(17), (2022): e2022GL100006, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL100006.

Description: Monitoring of active volcanic systems is a challenging task due in part to the trade-offs between collection of high-quality data from multiple techniques and the high costs of acquiring such data. Here we show that magnetic data can be used to monitor volcanoes by producing similar data to gravimetric techniques at significantly lower cost. The premise of this technique is that magma and wall rock above the Curie temperature are magnetically “transparent,” but not stationary within the crust. Subsurface movements of magma can affect the crustal magnetic field measured at the surface. We construct highly simplified magnetic models of four volcanic systems: Mount Saint Helens (1980), Axial Seamount (2015–2020), Kīlauea (2018), and Bárðarbunga (2014). In all cases, observed or inferred changes to the magmatic system would have been detectable by modern magnetometers. Magnetic monitoring could become common practice at many volcanoes, particularly in developing nations with high volcanic risk.

Description: This work was supported by the NSF Grant No 2052963 to J. Biasi and an internal Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution grant to M. Tivey.

Description: © The Author(s), 2022. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Bullock, E., Kipp, L., Moore, W., Brown, K., Mann, P., Vonk, J., Zimov, N., & Charette, M. Radium inputs into the Arctic Ocean from rivers a basin‐wide estimate. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 127(9), (2022): e2022JC018964, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jc018964.

Description: Radium isotopes have been used to trace nutrient, carbon, and trace metal fluxes inputs from ocean margins. However, these approaches require a full accounting of radium sources to the coastal ocean including rivers. Here, we aim to quantify river radium inputs into the Arctic Ocean for the first time for 226Ra and to refine the estimates for 228Ra. Using new and existing data, we find that the estimated combined (dissolved plus desorbed) annual 226Ra and 228Ra fluxes to the Arctic Ocean are [7.0–9.4] × 1014 dpm y−1 and [15–18] × 1014 dpm y−1, respectively. Of these totals, 44% and 60% of the river 226Ra and 228Ra, respectively are from suspended sediment desorption, which were estimated from laboratory incubation experiments. Using Ra isotope data from 20 major rivers around the world, we derived global annual 226Ra and 228Ra fluxes of [7.4–17] × 1015 and [15–27] × 1015 dpm y−1, respectively. As climate change spurs rapid Arctic warming, hydrological cycles are intensifying and coastal ice cover and permafrost are diminishing. These river radium inputs to the Arctic Ocean will serve as a valuable baseline as we attempt to understand the changes that warming temperatures are having on fluxes of biogeochemically important elements to the Arctic coastal zone.

Description: This study was a broad, collaborative effort that would not have been possible without contributions from numerous funding sources, including the National Science Foundation (NSF-0751525, NSF-1736277, NSF-1458305, NSF-1938873, NSF-2048067, NSF-2134865), the NERC-BMBF project CACOON [NE/R012806/1] (UKRI NERC) and BMBF-03F0806A, and an EU Starting Grant (THAWSOME-676982).

Description: Dissolved iron (dFe) availability limits the uptake of atmospheric CO2 by the Southern Ocean (SO) biological pump. Hence, any change in bioavailable dFe in this region can directly influence climate. On the basis of Fe uptake experiments with Phaeocystis antarctica, we show that the range of dFe bioavailability in natural samples is wider (〈1 to ~200% compared to free inorganic Fe′) than previously thought, with higher bioavailability found near glacial sources. The degree of bioavailability varied regardless of in situ dFe concentration and depth, challenging the consensus that sole dFe concentrations can be used to predict Fe uptake in modeling studies. Further, our data suggest a disproportionately major role of biologically mediated ligands and encourage revisiting the role of humic substances in influencing marine Fe biogeochemical cycling in the SO. Last, we describe a linkage between in situ dFe bioavailability and isotopic signatures that, we anticipate, will stimulate future research.

Description: 〈jats:p〉Rapidly shrinking Arctic sea ice has had substantial impacts on the Earth system. Therefore, reliably estimating the Arctic sea-ice thickness (SIT) using a combination of available observations and numerical modeling is urgently needed. Here, for the first time, we assimilate the latest CryoSat-2 summer SIT data into a coupled ice-ocean model. In particular, an incremental analysis update scheme is implemented to overcome the discontinuity resulting from the combined assimilation of biweekly SIT and daily sea-ice concentration (SIC) data. Along with improved estimates of sea-ice volume, our SIT estimates corrected the overestimation of SIT produced by the reanalysis that assimilates only SIC in summer in areas where the sea ice is roughest and experiences strong deformation, e.g., around the Fram Strait and Greenland. This study suggests that the newly developed CryoSat-2 SIT product, when assimilated properly using our approach, has great potential for Arctic sea-ice simulation and prediction.〈/jats:p〉

Description: The marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is considered vulnerable to irreversible collapse under future climate trajectories, and its tipping point may lie within the mitigated warming scenarios of 1.5° to 2°C of the United Nations Paris Agreement. Knowledge of ice loss during similarly warm past climates could resolve this uncertainty, including the Last Interglacial when global sea levels were 5 to 10 meters higher than today and global average temperatures were 0.5° to 1.5°C warmer than preindustrial levels. Using a panel of genome-wide, single-nucleotide polymorphisms of a circum-Antarctic octopus, we show persistent, historic signals of gene flow only possible with complete WAIS collapse. Our results provide the first empirical evidence that the tipping point of WAIS loss could be reached even under stringent climate mitigation scenarios.

Description: Recent studies have found evidence for a potential future tipping point, when the density of Antarctic continental shelf waters, specifically in the southern Weddell Sea, will allow for the onshore flow of warm waters of open ocean origin. A cold-to-warm regime shift in the adjacent ice shelf cavities entails a strong enhancement of ice shelf basal melt rates and could trigger instabilities in the ice sheet. From a suite of numerical experiments, aimed to force such a regime shift on the continental shelf, we identified the density balance between the shelf waters formed by sea ice production and the warmer water at the shelf break as the defining element of a tipping into a warm state. In our experiments, this process is reversible but there is evidence for hysteresis behaviour. Using HadCM3 20th-century output as atmospheric forcing, the resulting state of the Filchner-Ronne cavity depends on the initial state. In contrast, ERA Interim forcing pushes even a warm-initialized cavity into a cold state, i.e. it pushes the system back across the reversal threshold to the cold side. However, it turns out that for forcing data perturbations of a realistic magnitude, a unique and universal recipe for triggering a regime shift in Antarctic marginal seas was not found; instead, various ocean states can lead to an intrusion of off-shelf waters onto the continental shelf and into the cavities. Whether or not any given forcing or perturbation yields a density imbalance and thus allows for the inflow of warm water depends on the complex interplay between bottom topography, mean ocean state, sea ice processes, and atmospheric conditions. Copyright:

Description: 〈jats:p〉Abstract. The important roles that the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) plays in the central Arctic climate system have been recognized, but the atmospheric boundary layer height (ABLH), defined as the layer of continuous turbulence adjacent to the surface, has rarely been investigated. Using a year-round radiosonde dataset during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, we improve a Richardson-number-based algorithm that takes cloud effects into consideration and subsequently analyze the characteristics and variability of the ABLH over the Arctic Ocean. The results reveal that the annual cycle is clearly characterized by a distinct peak in May and two respective minima in January and July. This annual variation in the ABLH is primarily controlled by the evolution of the ABL thermal structure. Temperature inversions in the winter and summer are intensified by seasonal radiative cooling and warm-air advection with the surface temperature constrained by melting, respectively, leading to the low ABLH at these times. Meteorological and turbulence variables also play a significant role in ABLH variation, including the near-surface potential temperature gradient, friction velocity, and turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) dissipation rate. In addition, the MOSAiC ABLH is more suppressed than the ABLH during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) experiment in the summer, which indicates that there is large variability in the Arctic ABL structure during the summer melting season. 〈/jats:p〉

Description: 〈jats:p〉Abstract. The Arctic has warmed more rapidly than the global mean during the past few decades. The lapse rate feedback (LRF) has been identified as being a large contributor to the Arctic amplification (AA) of climate change. This particular feedback arises from the vertically non-uniform warming of the troposphere, which in the Arctic emerges as strong near-surface and muted free-tropospheric warming. Stable stratification and meridional energy transport are two characteristic processes that are evoked as causes for this vertical warming structure. Our aim is to constrain these governing processes by making use of detailed observations in combination with the large climate model ensemble of the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We build on the result that CMIP6 models show a large spread in AA and Arctic LRF, which are positively correlated for the historical period of 1951–2014. Thus, we present process-oriented constraints by linking characteristics of the current climate to historical climate simulations. In particular, we compare a large consortium of present-day observations to co-located model data from subsets that show a weak and strong simulated AA and Arctic LRF in the past. Our analyses suggest that the vertical temperature structure of the Arctic boundary layer is more realistically depicted in climate models with weak (w) AA and Arctic LRF (CMIP6/w) in the past. In particular, CMIP6/w models show stronger inversions in the present climate for boreal autumn and winter and over sea ice, which is more consistent with the observations. These results are based on observations from the year-long Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition in the central Arctic, long-term measurements at the Utqiaġvik site in Alaska, USA, and dropsonde temperature profiling from aircraft campaigns in the Fram Strait. In addition, the atmospheric energy transport from lower latitudes that can further mediate the warming structure in the free troposphere is more realistically represented by CMIP6/w models. In particular, CMIP6/w models systemically simulate a weaker Arctic atmospheric energy transport convergence in the present climate for boreal autumn and winter, which is more consistent with fifth generation reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5). We further show a positive relationship between the magnitude of the present-day transport convergence and the strength of past AA. With respect to the Arctic LRF, we find links between the changes in transport pathways that drive vertical warming structures and local differences in the LRF. This highlights the mediating influence of advection on the Arctic LRF and motivates deeper studies to explicitly link spatial patterns of Arctic feedbacks to changes in the large-scale circulation. 〈/jats:p〉

Description: During polar spring, ozone depletion events (ODEs) are often observed in combination with bromine explosion events (BEEs) in Ny-Ålesund. In this study, two long-term ozone data sets (2010–2021) from ozonesonde launches and in situ ozone measurements have been evaluated between March and May of each year to study ODEs in Ny-Ålesund. Ozone concentrations below 15 ppb were marked as ODEs. We applied a composite analysis to evaluate tropospheric BrO retrieved from satellite data and the prevailing meteorological conditions during these events. During ODEs, both data sets show a blocking situation with a low-pressure anomaly over the Barents Sea and anomalously high pressure in the Icelandic Low area, leading to transport of cold polar air from the north to Ny-Ålesund with negative temperature and positive BrO anomalies found around Svalbard. In addition, a higher wind speed and a higher, less stable boundary layer are noticed, supporting the assumption that ODEs often occur in combination with polar cyclones. Applying a 20 ppb ozone threshold value to tag ODEs resulted in only a slight attenuation of the BrO and meteorological anomalies compared to the 15 ppb threshold. Monthly analysis showed that BrO and meteorological anomalies are weakening from March to May. Therefore, ODEs associated with low-pressure systems, high wind speeds, and blowing snow more likely occur in early spring, while ODEs associated with low wind speed and stable boundary layer meteorological conditions seem to occur more often in late spring. Annual evaluations showed similar weather patterns for several years, matching the overall result of the composite analysis. However, some years show different meteorological patterns deviating from the results of the mean analysis. Finally, an ODE case study from the beginning of April 2020 in Ny-Ålesund is presented, where ozone was depleted for 2 consecutive days in combination with increased BrO values. The meteorological conditions are representative of the results of the composite analysis. A low-pressure system arrived from the northeast to Svalbard, resulting in high wind speeds with blowing snow and transport of cold polar air from the north.

Description: Numerical simulations employing prognostic sta- ble water isotopes can not only facilitate our understanding of hydrological processes and climate change but also al- low for a direct comparison between isotope signals obtained from models and various archives. In the current work, we describe the performance and explore the potential of a new version of the Earth system model AWI-ESM (Alfred We- gener Institute Earth System Model), labeled AWI-ESM-2.1- wiso, in which we incorporated three isotope tracers into all relevant components of the water cycle. We present here the results of pre-industrial (PI) and mid-Holocene (MH) simula- tions. The model reproduces the observed PI isotope compo- sitions in both precipitation and seawater well and captures their major differences from the MH conditions. The sim- ulated relationship between the isotope composition in precipitation (d18Op) and surface air temperature is very similar between the PI and MH conditions, and it is largely consis- tent with modern observations despite some regional model biases. The ratio of the MH–PI difference in δ18Op to the MH–PI difference in surface air temperature is comparable to proxy records over Greenland and Antarctica only when summertime air temperature is considered. An amount effect is evident over the North African monsoon domain, where a negative correlation between δ18Op and the amount of pre- cipitation is simulated. As an example of model applications, we studied the onset and withdrawal date of the MH West African summer monsoon (WASM) using daily variables. We find that defining the WASM onset based on precipitation alone may yield erroneous results due to the substantial daily variations in precipitation, which may obscure the dis- tinction between pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Com- bining precipitation and isotope indicators, we suggest in this work a novel method for identifying the commencement of the WASM. Moreover, we do not find an obvious difference between the MH and PI periods in terms of the mean onset of the WASM. However, an advancement in the WASM with- drawal is found in the MH compared to the PI period due to an earlier decline in insolation over the northern location of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

Description: table water isotopes in polar ice cores are widely used to reconstruct past temperature variations over several orbital climatic cycles. One way to calibrate the isotope– temperature relationship is to apply the present-day spatial relationship as a surrogate for the temporal one. However, this method leads to large uncertainties because several fac- tors like the sea surface conditions or the origin and transport of water vapor influence the isotope–temperature temporal slope. In this study, we investigate how the sea surface tem- perature (SST), the sea ice extent, and the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) affect these temporal slopes in Greenland and Antarctica for Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 000 years ago) to preindus- trial climate change. For that, we use the isotope-enabled at- mosphere climate model ECHAM6-wiso, forced with a set of sea surface boundary condition datasets based on recon- structions (e.g., GLOMAP) or MIROC 4m simulation out- puts. We found that the isotope–temperature temporal slopes in East Antarctic coastal areas are mainly controlled by the sea ice extent, while the sea surface temperature cooling af- fects the temporal slope values inland more. On the other hand, ECHAM6-wiso simulates the impact of sea ice extent on the EPICA Dome C (EDC) and Vostok sites through the contribution of water vapor from lower latitudes. Effects of sea surface boundary condition changes on modeled isotope-emperature temporal slopes are variable in West Antarctica. This is partly due to the transport of water vapor from the Southern Ocean to this area that can dampen the influence of local temperature on the changes in the isotopic compo- sition of precipitation and snow. In the Greenland area, the isotope–temperature temporal slopes are influenced by the sea surface temperatures near the coasts of the continent. The greater the LGM cooling off the coast of southeastern Green- land, the greater the transport of water vapor from the North Atlantic, and the larger the temporal slopes. The presence or absence of sea ice very near the coast has a large influ- ence in Baffin Bay and the Greenland Sea and influences the slopes at some inland ice core stations. The extent of the sea ice far south slightly influences the temporal slopes in Greenland through the transport of more depleted water vapor from lower latitudes to this area. The seasonal vari- ations of sea ice distribution, especially its retreat in sum- mer, influence the isotopic composition of the water vapor in this region and the modeled isotope–temperature tempo- ral slopes in the eastern part of Greenland. A stronger LGM AMOC decreases LGM-to-preindustrial isotopic anomalies in precipitation in Greenland, degrading the isotopic model– data agreement. The AMOC strength modifies the temporal slopes over inner Greenland slightly and by a little on the coasts along the Greenland Sea where the changes in surface temperature and sea ice distribution due to the AMOC strength mainly occur.

Description: 〈jats:p〉Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2 products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2022, EFOS increased by 0.9 % relative to 2021, with fossil emissions at 9.9±0.5 Gt C yr−1 (10.2±0.5 Gt C yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and ELUC was 1.2±0.7 Gt C yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1±0.8 Gt C yr−1 (40.7±3.2 Gt CO2 yr−1). Also, for 2022, GATM was 4.6±0.2 Gt C yr−1 (2.18±0.1 ppm yr−1; ppm denotes parts per million), SOCEAN was 2.8±0.4 Gt C yr−1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 Gt C yr−1, with a BIM of −0.1 Gt C yr−1 (i.e. total estimated sources marginally too low or sinks marginally too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2022 reached 417.1±0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2023 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2022 of +1.1 % (0.0 % to 2.1 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 419.3 ppm, 51 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2022, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 Gt C yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living-data update documents changes in methods and data sets applied to this most recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2023 (Friedlingstein et al., 2023). 〈/jats:p〉

Description: 〈jats:p〉Abstract. As the climate warms, the grounded ice sheet and floating ice shelves surrounding Antarctica are melting and releasing additional freshwater into the Southern Ocean. Nonetheless, almost all existing coupled climate models have fixed ice sheets and lack the physics required to represent the dominant sources of Antarctic melt. These missing ice dynamics represent a key uncertainty that is typically unaccounted for in current global climate change projections. Previous modelling studies that have imposed additional Antarctic meltwater have demonstrated regional impacts on Southern Ocean stratification, circulation, and sea ice, as well as remote changes in atmospheric circulation, tropical precipitation, and global temperature. However, these previous studies have used widely varying rates of freshwater forcing, have been conducted using different climate models and configurations, and have reached differing conclusions on the magnitude of meltwater–climate feedbacks. The Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) initiative brings together a team of scientists to quantify the climate system response to Antarctic meltwater input along with key aspects of the uncertainty. In this paper, we summarize the state of knowledge on meltwater discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves to the Southern Ocean and explain the scientific objectives of our initiative. We propose a series of coupled and ocean–sea ice model experiments, including idealized meltwater experiments, historical experiments with observationally consistent meltwater input, and future scenarios driven by meltwater inputs derived from stand-alone ice sheet models. Through coordinating a multi-model ensemble of simulations using a common experimental design, open data archiving, and facilitating scientific collaboration, SOFIA aims to move the community toward better constraining our understanding of the climate system response to Antarctic melt. 〈/jats:p〉

Description: We use seismic waveform data from the AlpArray Seismic Network and three other temporary seismic networks, to perform receiver function (RF) calculations and time−to−depth migration to update the knowledge of the Moho discontinuity beneath the broader European Alps. In particular, we set up a homogeneous processing scheme to compute RFs using the time-domain iterative deconvolution method and apply consistent quality control to yield 112,205 high-quality RFs. We then perform time−to−depth migration in a newly implemented 3D spherical coordinate system using a European-scale reference P and S wave velocity model. This approach, together with the dense data coverage, provide us with a 3D migrated volume, from which we present migrated profiles that reflect the first-order crustal thickness structure. We create a detailed Moho map by manually picking the discontinuity in a set of orthogonal profiles covering the entire area. We make the RF dataset, the software for the entire processing workflow, as well as the Moho map, openly available; these open-access datasets and results will allow other researchers to build on the current study.

Description: Published

Description: 2117–2138

Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra

Description: JCR Journal

Description: The Arctic is rapidly changing. Outside the Arctic, large-sample catchment databases have transformed catchment science from focusing on local case studies to more systematic studies of watershed functioning. Here we present an integrated pan-ARctic CAtchments summary DatabasE (ARCADE) of 〉 40 000 catchments that drain into the Arctic Ocean and range in size from 1 to 3.1 × 106 km2. These watersheds, delineated at a 90 m resolution, are provided with 103 geospatial, environmental, climatic, and physiographic catchment properties. ARCADE is the first aggregated database of pan-Arctic river catchments that also includes numerous small watersheds at a high resolution. These small catchments are experiencing the greatest climatic warming while also storing large quantities of soil carbon in landscapes that are especially prone to degradation of permafrost (i.e., ice wedge polygon terrain) and associated hydrological regime shifts. ARCADE is a key step toward monitoring the pan-Arctic across scales and is publicly available: https://doi.org/10.34894/U9HSPV (Speetjens et al., 2022).

Description: The weathering rate of carbonate minerals is several orders of magnitude higher than for silicate minerals. Therefore, small amounts of carbonate minerals have the potential to control the dissolved weathering loads in silicate-dominated catchments. Both weathering processes produce alkalinity under the consumption of CO2. Given that only alkalinity generation from silicate weathering is thought to be a long-term sink for CO2, a misattributed weathering source could lead to incorrect conclusions about long- and short-term CO2 fixation. In this study, we aimed to identify the weathering sources responsible for alkalinity generation and CO2 fixation across watershed scales in a degrading permafrost landscape in northern Norway, 68.7–70.5∘ N, and on a temporal scale, in a subarctic headwater catchment on the mountainside of Iskorasfjellet, characterized by sporadic permafrost and underlain mainly by silicates as the alkalinity-bearing lithology. By analyzing total alkalinity (AT) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations, as well as the stable isotope signature of the latter (δ13C-DIC), in conjunction with dissolved cation and anion loads, we found that AT was almost entirely derived from weathering of the sparse carbonate minerals. We propose that in the headwater catchment the riparian zone is a hotspot area of AT generation and release due to its enhanced hydrological connectivity and that the weathering load contribution from the uphill catchment is limited by insufficient contact time of weathering agents and weatherable materials. By using stable water isotopes, it was possible to explain temporal variations in AT concentrations following a precipitation event due to surface runoff. In addition to carbonic acid, sulfuric acid, probably originating from oxidation of pyrite or reduced sulfur in wetlands or from acid deposition, is shown to be a potential corrosive reactant. An increased proportion of sulfuric acid as a potential weathering agent may have resulted in a decrease in AT. Therefore, carbonate weathering in the studied area should be considered not only as a short-term CO2 sink but also as a potential CO2 source. Finally, we found that AT increased with decreasing permafrost probability, and attributed this relation to an increased water storage capacity associated with increasing contact of weathering agent and rock surfaces and enhanced microbial activity. As both soil respiration and permafrost thaw are expected to increase with climate change, increasing the availability of weathering agents in the form of CO2 and water storage capacity, respectively, we suggest that future weathering rates and alkalinity generation will increase concomitantly in the study area.

Description: The CryoGrid community model is a flexible toolbox for simulating the ground thermal regime and the ice-water balance for permafrost and glaciers, extending a well-established suite of permafrost models (CryoGrid 1, 2, and 3). The CryoGrid community model can accommodate a wide variety of application scenarios, which is achieved by fully modular structures through object-oriented programming. Different model components, characterized by their process representations and parameterizations, are realized as classes (i.e., objects) in CryoGrid. Standardized communication protocols between these classes ensure that they can be stacked vertically. For example, the CryoGrid community model features several classes with different complexity for the seasonal snow cover, which can be flexibly combined with a range of classes representing subsurface materials, each with their own set of process representations (e.g., soil with and without water balance, glacier ice). We present the CryoGrid architecture as well as the model physics and defining equations for the different model classes, focusing on one-dimensional model configurations which can also interact with external heat and water reservoirs. We illustrate the wide variety of simulation capabilities for a site on Svalbard, with point-scale permafrost simulations using, e.g., different soil freezing characteristics, drainage regimes, and snow representations, as well as simulations for glacier mass balance and a shallow water body. The CryoGrid community model is not intended as a static model framework but aims to provide developers with a flexible platform for efficient model development. In this study, we document both basic and advanced model functionalities to provide a baseline for the future development of novel cryosphere models.

Description: Long-Term measurements of permafrost temperatures do not provide a complete picture of the Arctic subsurface thermal regime. Regions with warmer permafrost often show little to no long-Term change in ground temperature due to the uptake and release of latent heat during freezing and thawing. Thus, regions where the least warming is observed may also be the most vulnerable to permafrost degradation. Since direct measurements of ice and liquid water contents in the permafrost layer are not widely available, thermal modeling of the subsurface plays a crucial role in understanding how permafrost responds to changes in the local energy balance. In this work, we first analyze trends in observed air and permafrost temperatures at four sites within the continuous permafrost zone, where we find substantial variation in the apparent relationship between long-Term changes in permafrost temperatures (0.02-0.16 Kyr-1) and air temperature (0.09-0.11 Kyr-1). We then apply recently developed Bayesian inversion methods to link observed changes in borehole temperatures to unobserved changes in latent heat and active layer thickness using a transient model of heat conduction with phase change. Our results suggest that the degree to which recent warming trends correlate with permafrost thaw depends strongly on both soil freezing characteristics and historical climatology. At the warmest site, a 9 m borehole near Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, modeled active layer thickness increases by an average of 13 ± 1 cmK-1 rise in mean annual ground temperature. In stark contrast, modeled rates of thaw at one of the colder sites, a borehole on Samoylov Island in the Lena River delta, appear far less sensitive to temperature change, with a negligible effect of 1 ± 1 cmK-1. Although our study is limited to just four sites, the results urge caution in the interpretation and comparison of warming trends in Arctic boreholes, indicating significant uncertainty in their implications for the current and future thermal state of permafrost.

Description: We compare the main atmospheric drivers of the melt season over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) in ERA5 and ERA-Interim (ERAI) in their overlapping period 1979–2018. In summer, ERA5 differs significantly from ERAI, especially in the melt regions. Small-scale ERA5 − ERAI differences near the ice sheet’s margins and over steep slopes can be explained by the different resolution, while the large-scale differences indicate a different representation of physical processes in the two reanalyses: averaged over the lower parts of the GrIS, the mean near-surface air temperature is 1 K lower, while the mean downward shortwave radiation at the surface is on average 15 W m−2 higher than in ERAI. Comparison with observational weather station data shows a significant warm bias in ERAI and, for ERA5, a significant positive bias in downward shortwave radiation. Consequently, methods that previously estimated the GrIS surface mass balance from the ERAI surface energy balance need to be carefully recalibrated before converting to ERA5 forcing.

Description: It is virtually certain that Antarctica's contribution to sea-level rise will increase with future warming, although competing mass balance processes hamper accurate quantification of the exact magnitudes. Today, ocean-induced melting underneath the floating ice shelves dominates mass losses, but melting at the surface will gain importance as global warming continues. Meltwater at the ice surface has crucial implications for the ice sheet's stability, as it increases the risk of hydrofracturing and ice-shelf collapse that could cause enhanced glacier outflow into the ocean. Simultaneously, positive feedbacks between ice and atmosphere can accelerate mass losses and increase the ice sheet's sensitivity to warming. However, due to long response times, it may take hundreds to thousands of years until the ice sheet fully adjusts to the environmental changes. Therefore, ice-sheet model simulations must be computationally fast and capture the relevant feedbacks, including the ones at the ice-atmosphere interface. Here we use the novel surface melt module dEBM-simple (a slightly modified version of the "simple"diurnal Energy Balance Model) coupled to the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM, together referred to as PISM-dEBM-simple) to estimate the impact of 21st-century atmospheric warming on Antarctic surface melt and ice dynamics. As an enhancement compared to the widely adopted positive degree-day (PDD) scheme, dEBM-simple includes an implicit diurnal cycle and computes melt not only from the temperature, but also from the influence of solar radiation and changes in ice albedo, thus accounting for the melt-albedo feedback. We calibrate PISM-dEBM-simple to reproduce historical and present-day Antarctic surface melt rates given by the regional atmospheric climate model RACMO2.3p2 and use the calibrated model to assess the range of possible future surface melt trajectories under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5 warming projections until the year 2100. To investigate the committed impacts of the enhanced surface melting on the ice-sheet dynamics, we extend the simulations under fixed climatological conditions until the ice sheet has reached a state close to equilibrium with its environment. Our findings reveal a substantial surface-melt-induced speed-up in ice flow associated with large-scale elevation reductions in sensitive ice-sheet regions, underscoring the critical role of self-reinforcing ice-sheet-atmosphere feedbacks in future mass losses and sea-level contribution from the Antarctic Ice Sheet on centennial to millennial timescales.

Description: Paleoceanographic reconstructions show that the strength of North Atlantic currents decreased during the Little Ice Age. In contrast, the role of ocean circulation in climate regulation during earlier historical epochs of the Common Era (C.E.) remains unclear. Here, we reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity in the Caribbean Basin for the past 1700 years using the isotopic and elemental composition of planktic foraminifera tests. Centennial-scale SST and salinity variations in the Caribbean co-occur with (hydro)climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere and are linked to a North Atlantic SST forcing. Cold phases around 600, 800, and 1400 to 1600 C.E. are characterized by Caribbean salinification and Gulf of Mexico freshening that implies reductions in the strength of North Atlantic surface circulation. We suggest that the associated changes in the meridional salt advection contributed to the historical climate variability of the C.E.

Description: In studying the mass balance of polar ice sheets, fluctuations in firn density near the surface is a major uncertainty. In this paper, we explore these variations at locations on the Greenland Ice Sheet and at the Dome C location in Antarctica. Borehole in situ measurements, snow radar echoes, microwave brightness temperatures, and modeling results from the Community Firn Model (CFM) are used. It is shown that firn density profiles can be represented using three processes: "long-scale"and "short-scale"density variations and "refrozen layers". Consistency with this description is observed in the dynamic range of airborne 0.5-2GHz brightness temperatures and snow radar echo peaks in measurements performed in Greenland in 2017. Based on these insights, a new analytical partially coherent model is implemented to explain the microwave brightness temperatures using the three-scale description of the firn. Short- and long-scale firn processes are modeled as a 3D continuous random medium with finite vertical and horizontal correlation lengths as opposed to past 1D randomly layered medium descriptions. Refrozen layers are described as deterministic sheets with planar interfaces, with the number of refrozen-layer interfaces determined by radar observations. Firn density and correlation length parameters used in forward modeling to match measured 0.5-2GHz brightness temperatures in Greenland show consistency with similar parameters in CFM predictions. Model predictions also are in good agreement with multi-angle 1.4GHz vertically and horizontally polarized brightness temperature measured by the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite at Dome C, Antarctica. This work shows that co-located active and passive microwave measurements can be used to infer polar firn properties that can be compared with predictions of the CFM. In particular, 0.5-2GHz brightness temperature measurements are shown to be sensitive to long-scale firn density fluctuations with density standard deviations in the range of 0.01-0.06gcm-3 and vertical correlation lengths of 6-20cm.

Description: An airborne microwave wide-band radiometer (500-2000 MHz) was operated for the first time in Antarctica to better understand the emission properties of sea ice, outlet glaciers and the interior ice sheet from Terra Nova Bay to Dome C. The different glaciological regimes were revealed to exhibit unique spectral signatures in this portion of the microwave spectrum. Generally, the brightness temperatures over a vertically homogeneous ice sheet are warmest at the lowest frequencies, consistent with models that predict that those channels sensed the deeper, warmer parts of the ice sheet. Vertical heterogeneities in the ice property profiles can alter this basic interpretation of the signal. Spectra along the lengths of outlet glaciers were modulated by the deposition and erosion of snow, driven by strong katabatic winds. Similar to previous experiments in Greenland, the brightness temperatures across the frequency band were low in crevasse areas. Variations in brightness temperature were consistent with spatial changes in sea ice type identified in satellite imagery and in situ ground-penetrating radar data. The results contribute to a better understanding of the utility of microwave wide-band radiometry for cryospheric studies and also advance knowledge of the important physics underlying existing L-band radiometers operating in space.

Description: 〈jats:p〉Comprehensive sampling of natural genetic diversity with metagenomics enables highly resolved insights into the interplay between ecology and evolution. However, resolving adaptive, neutral, or purifying processes of evolution from intrapopulation genomic variation remains a challenge, partly due to the sole reliance on gene sequences to interpret variants. Here, we describe an approach to analyze genetic variation in the context of predicted protein structures and apply it to a marine microbial population within the SAR11 subclade 1a.3.V, which dominates low-latitude surface oceans. Our analyses reveal a tight association between genetic variation and protein structure. In a central gene in nitrogen metabolism, we observe decreased occurrence of nonsynonymous variants from ligand-binding sites as a function of nitrate concentrations, revealing genetic targets of distinct evolutionary pressures maintained by nutrient availability. Our work yields insights into the governing principles of evolution and enables structure-aware investigations of microbial population genetics.〈/jats:p〉

Description: The bulk crystal orientation in ice influences the flow of glaciers and ice streams. The ice c-Axes fabric is most reliably derived from ice cores. Because these are sparse, the spatial and vertical distribution of the fabric in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is largely unknown. In recent years, methods have been developed to determine fabric characteristics from polarimetric radar measurements. The aim of this paper is to present an improved method to infer the horizontal fabric asymmetry by precisely determining the travel-Time difference using co-polarised phase-sensitive radar data. We applied this method to six radar measurements from the East Greenland Ice-core Project (EastGRIP) drill site on Greenland's largest ice stream to give a proof of concept by comparing the results with the horizontal asymmetry of the bulk crystal anisotropy derived from the ice core. This comparison shows an excellent agreement, which is a large improvement compared to previously used methods. Our approach is particularly useful for determining the vertical profile of the fabric asymmetry in higher resolution and over larger depths than was achievable with previous methods, especially in regions with strong asymmetry.

Description: 10Be is produced by the interaction between galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) with the Earth's atmospheric constituents. The flux of GCRs is modulated by the varying strength of the magnetic fields of the Earth and the Sun. Measurement of 10Be concentrations from polar ice cores is thus a valuable tool to reconstruct the variations in the geomagnetic field and solar activity levels. The interpretation of 10Be records is, however, complicated by non-production-related effects on the 10Be deposition rate caused by climate-or weather-induced variability. Furthermore, volcanic eruptions have been proposed to lead to short-Term 10Be deposition enhancements. In this study, we test the use of excess meltwater from continuous flow analysis (CFA) to measure 10Be, allowing less time-consuming and more cost-effective sample preparation. We compare two records obtained from CFA and discrete samples from the East Greenland Ice core Project (EGRIP) S6 firn core, reaching back to 1900gCE. We find that the two records agree well and that the 10Be record from CFA samples agrees as well as the discrete samples with other records from Greenland. Furthermore, by subtracting the theoretically expected GCR-induced signal, we investigate the high-frequency variability in the 10Be records from Greenland and Antarctica after 1951gCE, focusing on SEP events and volcanic eruptions. Finally, we use the 10Be records from Greenland and Antarctica to study the 11-year solar cycles, allowing us to assess the suitability of the CFA samples for the reconstruction of solar activity. This result opens new opportunities for the collection of continuous 10Be records with less time-consuming sample preparation, while saving an important portion of the ice cores for other measurements.

Description: The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.

Description: Stable water isotopes from polar ice cores are invaluable high-resolution climate proxy records. Recent studies have aimed to improve our understanding of how the climate signal is stored in the stable water isotope record by addressing the influence of post-depositional processes on the isotopic composition of surface snow. In this study, the relationship between surface snow metamorphism and water isotopes during precipitation-free periods is explored using measurements of snow-specific surface area (SSA). Continuous daily SSA measurements from the East Greenland Ice Core Project site (EastGRIP) during the summer seasons of 2017, 2018 and 2019 are used to develop an empirical decay model to describe events of rapid decrease in SSA linked to snow metamorphism. We find that SSA decay during precipitation-free periods at the EastGRIP site is best described by the exponential equation SSA(t)Combining double low line(SSA0-22).e-αt+22, and has a dependency on wind speed. The relationship between surface snow SSA and snow isotopic composition is primarily explored using empirical orthogonal function analysis. A coherence between SSA and deuterium excess is apparent during 2017 and 2019, suggesting that processes driving change in SSA also influence snow deuterium excess. By contrast, 2018 was characterised by a covariance between SSA and 18O highlighting the inter-Annual variability in surface regimes. Moreover, we observed changes in isotopic composition consistent with fractionation effects associated with sublimation and vapour diffusion during periods of rapid decrease in SSA. Our findings support recent studies which provide evidence of isotopic fractionation during sublimation, and show that snow deuterium excess is modified during snow metamorphism.

Description: Over the past 3 decades, inversions for ice sheet basal drag have become commonplace in glaciological modeling. Such inversions require regularization to prevent over-fitting and ensure that the structure they recover is a robust inference from the observations, confidence which is required if they are to be used to draw conclusions about processes and properties of the ice base. While L-curve analysis can be used to select the optimal regularization level, the treatment of L-curve analysis in glaciological inverse modeling has been highly variable. Building on the history of glaciological inverse modeling, we demonstrate general best practices for regularizing glaciological inverse problems, using a domain in the Filchner-Ronne catchment of Antarctica as our test bed. We show a step-by-step approach to cost function normalization and L-curve analysis. We explore the spatial and spectral characteristics of the solution as a function of regularization, and we test the sensitivity of L-curve analysis and regularization to model resolution, effective pressure, sliding nonlinearity, and the flow equation. We find that the optimal regularization level converges towards a finite non-zero limit in the continuous problem, associated with a best knowable basal drag field. Nonlinear sliding laws outperform linear sliding in our analysis, with both a lower total variance and a more sharply cornered L-curve. By contrast, geometry-based approximations for effective pressure degrade inversion performance when added to a sliding law, but an actual hydrology model may marginally improve performance in some cases. Our results with 3D inversions suggest that the additional model complexity may not be justified by the 2D nature of the surface velocity data. We conclude with recommendations for best practices in future glaciological inversions.

Description: As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human-water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events; and (3) a table of the indicators of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management; changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability; and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023, 10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001).

Description: One of the key components of this research has been the mapping of Antarctic bed topography and ice thickness parameters that are crucial for modelling ice flow and hence for predicting future ice loss and the ensuing sea level rise. Supported by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR), the Bedmap3 Action Group aims not only to produce new gridded maps of ice thickness and bed topography for the international scientific community, but also to standardize and make available all the geophysical survey data points used in producing the Bedmap gridded products. Here, we document the survey data used in the latest iteration, Bedmap3, incorporating and adding to all of the datasets previously used for Bedmap1 and Bedmap2, including ice bed, surface and thickness point data from all Antarctic geophysical campaigns since the 1950s. More specifically, we describe the processes used to standardize and make these and future surveys and gridded datasets accessible under the Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) data principles. With the goals of making the gridding process reproducible and allowing scientists to re-use the data freely for their own analysis, we introduce the new SCAR Bedmap Data Portal (https://bedmap.scar.org, last access: 1 March 2023) created to provide unprecedented open access to these important datasets through a web-map interface. We believe that this data release will be a valuable asset to Antarctic research and will greatly extend the life cycle of the data held within it. Data are available from the UK Polar Data Centre: https://data.bas.ac.uk (last access: 5 May 2023). See the Data availability section for the complete list of datasets.

Description: An analysis of multi-satellite-derived products of four major phytoplankton functional types (PFTs – diatoms, haptophytes, prokaryotes and dinoflagellates) was carried out to investigate the PFT time series in the Atlantic Ocean between 2002 and 2021. The investigation includes the 2-decade trends, climatology, phenology and anomaly of PFTs for the whole Atlantic Ocean and its different biogeochemical provinces in the surface layer that optical satellite signals can reach. The PFT time series over the whole Atlantic region showed mostly no clear trend over the last 2 decades, except for a small decline in prokaryotes and an abrupt increase in diatoms during 2018–2019, which is mainly observed in the northern Longhurst provinces. The phenology of diatoms, haptophytes and dinoflagellates is very similar: at higher latitudes bloom maxima are reached in spring (April in the Northern Hemisphere and October in the Southern Hemisphere), in the oligotrophic regions in winter time and in the tropical regions during May to September. In general, prokaryotes show opposite annual cycles to the other three PFTs and present more spatial complexity. The PFT anomaly (in percent) of 2021 compared to the 20-year mean reveals mostly a slight decrease in diatoms and a prominent increase in haptophytes in most areas of the high latitudes. Both diatoms and prokaryotes show a mild decrease along coastlines and an increase in the gyres, while prokaryotes show a clear decrease at mid-latitudes to low latitudes and an increase on the western African coast (Canary Current Coastal Province, CNRY and Guinea Current Coastal Province, GUIN) and southwestern corner of North Atlantic Tropical Gyral Province (NATR). Dinoflagellates, as a minor contributor to the total biomass, are relatively stable in the whole Atlantic region. This study illustrated the past and current PFT state in the Atlantic Ocean and acted as the first step to promote long-term consistent PFT observations that enable time series analyses of PFT trends and interannual variability to reveal potential climate-induced changes in phytoplankton composition on multiple temporal and spatial scales.

Description: Roads constructed on permafrost can have a significant impact on the surrounding environment, potentially inducing permafrost degradation. These impacts arise from factors such as snow accumulation near the road, which affects the soil's thermal and hydrological regime, and road dust that decreases the snow's albedo, altering the timing of snowmelt. However, our current understanding of the magnitude and the spatial extent of these effects is limited. In this study we addressed this gap by using remote sensing techniques to assess the spatial effect of the Inuvik to Tuktoyaktuk Highway (ITH) in Northwest Territories, Canada, on snow accumulation, snow albedo and snowmelt patterns. With a new, high resolution snow depth raster from airborne laser scanning, we quantified the snow accumulation at road segments in the Trail Valley Creek area using digital elevation model differencing. We found increased snow accumulation up to 36 m from the road center. The magnitude of this snow accumulation was influenced by the prevailing wind direction and the embankment height. Furthermore, by analyzing 43 Sentinel-2 satellite images between February and May 2020, we observed reduced snow albedo values within 500 m of the road, resulting in a 12-days-earlier onset of snowmelt within 100 m from the road. We examined snowmelt patterns before, during and after the road construction using the normalized difference snow index from Landsat-7 and Landsat-8 imagery. Our analysis revealed that the road affected the snowmelt pattern up to 600 m from the road, even in areas which appeared undisturbed. In summary, our study improves our understanding of the spatial impact of gravel roads on permafrost due to enhanced snow accumulation, reduced snow albedo and earlier snowmelt. Our study underscores the important contribution that remote sensing can provide to improve our understanding of the effects of infrastructure development on permafrost environments.

Description: Polar research is an interdisciplinary and multi-faceted field of research ranging from history to geology and geophysics to social sciences and education. Thus, several different universities and institutions within Germany participate in polar research. The seminar series POLARSTUNDE, organized by the German Society for Polar Research (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Polarforschung) and the German National Committee of the Association of Polar Early Career Scientists (APECS Germany) regularly features different topics of German polar research. Although initially a "pandemic solution", the seminar series has established itself as a valuable and highly successful part of the German polar research landscape. The seminar series was held in German and was aimed at both scientists and the general public. This article addresses the first season of POLARSTUNDE and provides (1) comprehensive summaries of the talks and (2) insight into the planning and execution from an organizational point of view.

Description: This paper was initiated by a multidisciplinary Topic Workshop in the frame of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft Priority Program 1158 “Antarctic Research with Comparative Investigations in Arctic Ice Areas”, and hence it represents only the national view without claiming to be complete but is intended to provide awareness and suggestions for the current discussion on so-called big data in many scientific fields. The importance of the polar regions and their essential role for the Earth system are both undoubtedly recognized. However, dramatic changes in the climate and environment have been observed first in the Arctic and later in Antarctica over the past few decades. While important data have been collected and observation networks have been built in Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, this is a relatively data-scarce region due to the challenges of remote data acquisition, expensive labor, and harsh environmental conditions. There are many approaches crossing multiple scientific disciplines to better understand Antarctic processes; to evaluate ongoing climatic and environmental changes and their manifold ecological, physical, chemical, and geological consequences; and to make (improved) predictions. Together, these approaches generate very large, multivariate data sets, which can be broadly classified as “Antarctic big data”. For these large data sets, there is a pressing need for improved data acquisition, curation, integration, service, and application to support fundamental scientific research. Based on deficiencies in crossing disciplines and to attract further interest in big data in Antarctic sciences, this article will (i) describe and evaluate the current status of big data in various Antarctic-related scientific disciplines, (ii) identify current gaps, (iii) and provide solutions to fill these gaps. How to cite. Graiff, A., Braun, M., Driemel, A., Ebbing, J., Grossart, H.-P., Harder, T., Hoffman, J. I., Koch, B., Leese, F., Piontek, J., Scheinert, M., Quillfeldt, P., Zimmermann, J., and Karsten, U.: Big data in Antarctic sciences – current status, gaps, and future perspectives, Polarforschung, 91, 45–57, https://doi.org/10.5194/polf-91-45-2023, 2023. Received: 19 Dec 2022 – Revised: 01 Aug 2023 – Accepted: 04 Aug 2023 – Published: 04 Sep 2023

Description: Carbohydrates, originating from marine microorganisms, enter the atmosphere as part of sea spray aerosol (SSA) and can influence fog and cloud microphysics as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) or icenucleating particles (INP). Particularly in the remote Arctic region, significant knowledge gaps persist about the sources, the sea-to-air transfer mechanisms, atmospheric concentrations, and processing of this substantial organic group. In this ship-based field study conducted from May to July 2017 in the Fram Strait, Barents Sea, and central Arctic Ocean, we investigated the sea-to-air transfer of marine combined carbohydrates (CCHO) from concerted measurements of the bulk seawater, the sea surface microlayer (SML), aerosol particles and fog. Our results reveal a wide range of CCHO concentrations in seawater (22–1070 μg L-1), with notable variations among different sea-ice-related sea surface compartments. Enrichment factors in the sea surface microlayer (SML) relative to bulk water exhibited variability in both dissolved (0.4–16) and particulate (0.4–49) phases, with the highest values in the marginal ice zone (MIZ) and aged melt ponds. In the atmosphere, CCHO was detected in super- and submicron aerosol particles (CCHOaer;super: 0.07–2.1 ngm-3; CCHOaer;sub: 0.26–4.4 ngm-3) and fog water (CCHOfog;liquid: 18–22 000 μg L-1; CCHOfog;atmos: 3–4300 ngm-3). Enrichment factors for sea–air transfer varied based on assumed oceanic emission sources. Furthermore, we observed rapid atmospheric aging of CCHO, indicating both biological/enzymatic processes and abiotic degradation. This study highlights the diverse marine emission sources in the Arctic Ocean and the atmospheric processes shaping the chemical composition of aerosol particles and fog.

Description: Earth System Science (ESS) relies on the availability of data from varying resources and ranging over different disciplines. Hence, data sources are rich and diverse, including observatories, satellites, measuring campaigns, model simulations, case studies, laboratory experiments as well as citizen science etc. At the same time, practices of professional research data management (RDM) are differing significantly among various disciplines. There are many well-known challenges in enabling a free flow of data in the sense of the FAIR criteria. Such are data quality assurance, unique digital identifiers, access to and integration of data repositories, just to mention a few. The Helmholtz DataHub Earth&Environment is addressing digitalization in ESS by developing a federated data infrastructure. Existing RDM practices at seven centers of the Helmholtz Association working together in a joint research program within the Research Field Earth and Environment (RF E&E) are harmonized and integrated in a comprehensive way. The vision is to establish a digital research ecosystem fostering digitalization in geosciences and environmental sciences. Hereby, issues of common metadata standards, digital object identifiers for samples, instruments and datasets, defined role models for data sharing certainly play a central role. The various data generating infrastructures are registered digitally in order to collect metadata as early as possible and enrich them along the flow of the research cycle. Joint RDM bridging several institutions relies on professional practices of distributed software development. Apart from operating cross-center software development teams, the solutions rely on concepts of modular software design. For example, a generic framework has been developed to allow for quick development of tools for domain specific data exploration in a distributed manner. Other tools incorporate automated quality control in data streams. Software is being developed following guiding principles of open and reusable research software development. A suite of views is being provided, allowing for varying user perspectives, monitoring data flows from sensor to archive, or publishing data in quality assured repositories. Furthermore, high-level data products are being provided for stakeholders and knowledge transfer (for examples see https://datahub.erde-und-umwelt.de). Furthermore, tools for integrated data analysis, e.g. using AI approaches for marine litter detection can be implemented on top of the existing software stack. Of course, this initiative does not exist in isolation. It is part of a long-term strategy being embedded within national (e.g. NFDI) and international (e.g. EOSC, RDA) initiatives.

Description: Here we describe LegacyClimate 1.0, a dataset of the reconstruction of the mean July temperature (TJuly), mean annual temperature (Tann), and annual precipitation (Pann) from 2594 fossil pollen records from the Northern Hemisphere, spanning the entire Holocene, with some records reaching back to the Last Glacial Period. Two reconstruction methods, the modern analog technique (MAT) and weighted averaging partial least squares regression (WA-PLS), reveal similar results regarding spatial and temporal patterns. To reduce the impact of precipitation on temperature reconstruction, and vice versa, we also provide reconstructions using tailored modern pollen data, limiting the range of the corresponding other climate variables. We assess the reliability of the reconstructions, using information from the spatial distributions of the root mean squared error in the prediction and reconstruction significance tests. The dataset is beneficial for synthesis studies of proxy-based reconstructions and to evaluate the output of climate models and thus help to improve the models themselves. We provide our compilation of reconstructed TJuly, Tann, and Pann as open-Access datasets at PANGAEA (10.1594/PANGAEA.930512; Herzschuh et al., 2023a). The R code for the reconstructions is provided at Zenodo (10.5281/zenodo.7887565; Herzschuh et al., 2023b), including the harmonized open-Access modern and fossil datasets used for the reconstructions, so that customized reconstructions can be easily established.