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  • ddc:320  (81)
  • 551.5  (38)
  • LC QA3
  • English  (119)
  • 2020-2022  (55)
  • 1995-1999  (64)
  • 1945-1949
  • 1925-1929
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-07-25
    Description: The relationship between mesoscale convective organization, quantified by the spatial arrangement of convection, and oceanic precipitation in the tropical belt is examined using the output of a global storm-resolving simulation. The analysis uses a 2D watershed segmentation algorithm based on local precipitation maxima to isolate individual precipitation cells and derive their properties. 10° by 10° scenes are analyzed using a phase-space representation made of the number of cells per scene and the mean area of the cells per scene to understand the controls on the spatial arrangement of convection and its precipitation. The presence of few and large cells in a scene indicates the presence of a more clustered distribution of cells, whereas many small cells in a scene tend to be randomly distributed. In general, the degree of clustering of a scene (Iorg) is positively correlated to the mean area of the cells and negatively correlated to the number of cells. Strikingly, the degree of clustering, whether the cells are randomly distributed or closely spaced, to a first order does not matter for the precipitation amounts produced. Scenes of similar precipitation amounts appear as hyperbolae in our phase-space representation, hyperbolae that follow the contours of the precipitating area fraction. Finally, including the scene-averaged water vapour path (WVP) in our phase-space analysis reveals that scenes with larger WVP contain more cells than drier scenes, whereas the mean area of the cells only weakly varies with WVP. Dry scenes can contain both small and large cells, but they can contain only few cells of each category.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; convection ; object-based approaches ; organization ; precipitation ; storm-resolving modelling
    Language: English
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-07-25
    Description: An exceptionally strong stationary planetary wave with Zonal Wavenumber 1 led to a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Southern Hemisphere in September 2019. Ionospheric data from European Space Agency's Swarm satellite constellation mission show prominent 6-day variations in the dayside low-latitude region at this time, which can be attributed to forcing from the middle atmosphere by the Rossby normal mode “quasi-6-day wave” (Q6DW). Geopotential height measurements by the Microwave Limb Sounder aboard National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aura satellite reveal a burst of global Q6DW activity in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere during the SSW, which is one of the strongest in the record. The Q6DW is apparently generated in the polar stratosphere at 30–40 km, where the atmosphere is unstable due to strong vertical wind shear connected with planetary wave breaking. These results suggest that an Antarctic SSW can lead to ionospheric variability through wave forcing from the middle atmosphere.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; sudden stratospheric warming ; quasi-6-day wave ; planetary wave ; ionosphere ; vertical coupling ; Swarm
    Language: English
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2021-07-21
    Description: The Etesians are the dominant synoptically driven winds observed in the Eastern Mediterranean, usually from late spring to late summer. Due to the complex topography, the Etesians can be very strong and pose significant environmental hazards, especially over wildfire incidents. This study assesses the impacts of climate change on future Etesians by analyzing the response of the most recent EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations at the 12-km grid resolution over the twenty-first century. The mean model ensemble projects a significant increase of the Etesians' frequency and intensity under the two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. This response is connected to an increase in the zonal wind at 200 hPa, a reinforcement of the midlatitude westerly flow, and a decrease in the wave amplitude. These circulation changes accelerate the mid-to-high latitude eastward propagation of the large-scale circulation systems which can favor enhanced ridges over the Balkans. A strengthening and poleward shift of the subtropical jet stream is also projected, connected with stronger subsidence over the Eastern Mediterranean. The projected changes will have profound environmental and societal implications, including the lengthening of the wildfire season and increasing air pollution risk in the region. On the other hand, the current estimate of future wind power potential in the Aegean Sea will be significantly increased by the end of the century, which might have positive impact in the regional economy.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; Etesians ; extreme winds ; Eastern Mediterranean ; midlatitude atmospheric circulation ; EURO-CORDEX ; future projections
    Language: English
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2021-07-23
    Description: Clouds are liquid at temperature greater than 0°C and ice at temperature below −38°C. Between these two thresholds, the temperature of the cloud thermodynamic phase transition from liquid to ice is difficult to predict and the theory and numerical models do not agree: Microphysical, dynamical, and meteorological parameters influence the glaciation temperature. We temporally track optical and microphysical properties of 796 clouds over Europe from 2004 to 2015 with the space-based instrument Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager on board the geostationary METEOSAT second generation satellites. We define the glaciation temperature as the mean between the cloud top temperature of those consecutive images for which a thermodynamic phase change in at least one pixel is observed for a given cloud object. We find that, on average, isolated convective clouds over Europe freeze at −21.6°C. Furthermore, we analyze the temporal evolution of a set of cloud properties and we retrieve glaciation temperatures binned by meteorological and microphysical regimes: For example, the glaciation temperature increases up to 11°C when cloud droplets are large, in line with previous studies. Moreover, the correlations between the parameters characterizing the glaciation temperature are compared and analyzed and a statistical study based on principal component analysis shows that after the cloud top height, the cloud droplet size is the most important parameter to determine the glaciation temperature.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; Clouds ; Glaciation temperature ; geostationary satellite ; SEVIRI ; Thermodynamic phase
    Language: English
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2021-07-25
    Description: Several regions worldwide have seen significant trends in anthropogenic aerosol emissions during the period of detailed satellite observations since 2001. Over Europe (EUR) and North America (NAM) there were strong declines, over China increases then declines and over India, strong increases. Regional trends in model-simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD) and cloud radiative effects in both the Fifth and Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIP5 and CMIP6) are broadly consistent with the ones from satellite retrievals in most parts of EUR, NAM and India. CMIP6 models better match satellite-derived AOD trend in western NAM (increasing) and eastern China (decreasing), where CMIP5 models failed, pointing to improved anthropogenic aerosol emissions. Drop concentration trends in both observations and models qualitatively match AOD trends. The result for solar cloud radiative effect in models, however, is due to compensating errors: Models fail to reproduce observed liquid water path trends and show, in turn, opposite trends in cloud fraction.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; aerosol emission trend ; aerosol optical depth ; cloud radiative effects ; aerosol source regions ; CDNC ; climate models
    Language: English
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2021-07-23
    Description: High-resolution simulations (grid spacing 2.5 km) are performed with ICON-LEM to characterize convective organization in the Tropics during August 2016 over a large domain ranging from northeastern South America, along the tropical Atlantic to Africa (8,000×3,000 km). The degree of organization is measured by a refined version of the wavelet-based organization index (WOI), which is able to characterize the scale, the intensity and anisotropy of convection based on rain rates alone. Exploiting the localization of wavelets both in space and time, we define a localized version of the convective organization index (LWOI). We compare convection observed in satellite-derived rain rates with the corresponding processes simulated by ICON-LEM. Model and observations indicate three regions with different kinds of convective organization. Continental convection over West Africa has a predominantly meridional orientation and is more organized than over South America, because it acts on larger scales and is more intense. Convection over the tropical Atlantic is zonally oriented along the ITCZ and less intense. ICON and observations agree on the number and intensity of the African easterly waves during the simulation period. The waves are associated with strong vorticity anomalies and are clearly visible in a spatiotemporal wavelet analysis. The central speed and the wavelength of the waves is simulated well. Both the scale and intensity components of LWOI in ICON are significantly correlated with environmental variables. The scale of precipitation is related to wind shear, CAPE and its tendency, while the intensity strongly correlates with column-integrated humidity, upper-level divergence and maximum vertical wind speed. This demonstrates that the LWOI components capture important characteristics of convective precipitation.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; convective organization ; ICON-LEM ; IMERG ; LWOI ; tropical convection ; wavelet-based organization index ; WOI
    Language: English
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2021-07-23
    Description: In this study, we present a five-member Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) physics ensemble over the Arabian Peninsula on the convection-permitting (CP) scale and investigate the ability to simulate convection and precipitation by varying the applied cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parametrizations. The study covers a typical precipitation event ocurring during summertime over the eastern part of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Our results show that the best results are obtained by using water- and ice-friendly aerosols combined with aerosol-aware Thompson cloud microphysics and the Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) PBL parametrization. The diurnal cycle of 2-m temperature over the desert is well captured by all members, although a cold bias is present during the morning and evening transition. All members are capable of simulating the correct timing of the onset of convection. Simulations with the MYNN PBL and Thompson scheme produce the highest convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN), associated with stronger mixing inside the PBL, leading to the formation of more dense liquid water clouds. The WDM6 microphysics scheme is not a suitable option, as there are hardly any liquid water clouds; mainly ice clouds are simulated. Precipitation is best captured by applying the MYNN and Thomspon scheme. Although the ensemble size is relatively small, this allows for the provision of cloud probability maps suitable for cloud-seeding applications.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; convection ; ensemble ; PBL ; UAE ; WRF
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2016-04-28
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2016-04-28
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2016-04-28
    Keywords: ddc:320
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    Language: English
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  • 11
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    Oslo : ProSus | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2018-03-26
    Keywords: ddc:320
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    Language: English
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  • 12
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    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2016-04-28
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2016-04-28
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    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 14
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    London : Zed Books | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2016-04-28
    Description: While sustainability is in danger of being reduced to a meaningless platitude, the brutal fact remains that industrial countries make a disproportionately large and negative impact on the environment. A serious transition to sustainability will require changing people's mindsets and social institutions, in addition to public policies, technologies and business practices. This book presents a path-breaking analysis as well as highly innovative proposals for managing this transition. Emanating from Europe's foremost environmental policy think-tank, it has already stirred up a major new debate in Germany on radical, but feasible, directions in which the governments of industrial societies ought to be moving. The concept of "environmental space" and its ingenious development of indicators for measuring an economy's national and global impact combine with its delineation of concrete policies to give this book its intellectual power and potential political impact.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 15
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    Aldershot : Ashgate | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2016-04-28
    Keywords: ddc:320
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2016-04-28
    Description: Five years after the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, the hesitancy of developed countries is turning out to be the main impediment to implementing an effective policy for sustainable development. Alongside the further development of international environmental regimes, setting up national action plans is necessary to close the action-gap in the North. However, this can only succeed if the action plans include binding objectives that can be monitored and evaluated. Current national strategies for sustainable development only meet this criterion in exceptional cases; in most cases only qualitatively and legally nonbinding objectives are included. In the present paper, a suggestion for a cluster of environmental policy targets is put forth, which - using Germany as an example - establishes the sustainability concept at the national level. Particular emphasis is placed on the normative dimension of target setting.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 17
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    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2018-03-26
    Keywords: ddc:320
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  • 18
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    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2016-04-28
    Keywords: ddc:320
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  • 19
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    Copenhagen : Danish Board of Technology | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2016-04-28
    Keywords: ddc:320
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  • 20
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    Berlin : Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2016-04-28
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  • 21
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    Bonn : Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Protection and Nuclear Safety | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2018-03-26
    Keywords: ddc:320
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  • 22
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    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2018-11-21
    Description: The issue or concept of "sustainable development" entered onto the public and political agenda only relatively recently, and, five years after signing Agenda 21, perceptions of it are still ambiguous. A review of organisational adjustments and of German communications to the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development shows that the German government's level of commitment to Agenda 21 is still low. This view is supported by an assessment of developments, and the Government's poor performance so far, in three institutional indicators. However, there is evidence that some incremental steps towards a sustainability transition are being taken as in some areas of business and industry and local government attitudes are begining to change. In addition, awareness of sustainable development is being raised by the efforts of non‐governmental organisations and the scientific community. Generally though, the lack of institutional reorganisation is the major obstacle to a German sustainability transition. This is an expression of the generally low priority of environmental and global development issues in the aftermath of German unification and the related economic and social problems. The traditional economic paradigm where economic growth is believed to be the precondition for welfare prevails and is considered by a majority of decision‐makers not to be compatible with the sustainability transition.
    Keywords: ddc:320
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2014-08-15
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 24
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    Bonn : Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Protection and Nuclear Safety | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2016-04-28
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2018-03-26
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 26
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    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2016-04-28
    Keywords: ddc:320
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  • 27
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    London : Earthscan | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2018-03-26
    Keywords: ddc:320
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  • 28
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    London : Zed Books | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2016-04-28
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  • 29
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    London : Earthscan | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2018-03-26
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  • 30
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    Brussels : Europ. Parliament | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2014-08-15
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  • 31
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    London : Routledge | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2018-03-26
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  • 32
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    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2016-04-28
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  • 33
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    Oslo : ProSus | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2018-03-26
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2018-04-18
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    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 35
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    Wien : Energieverwertungsagentur | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2016-04-28
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  • 36
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    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2018-11-21
    Description: The discussion of sustainable development focused attention on new environmental goals and raised the issue of improving resource productivity. A first step towards sustainability would be to slow-down and reduce the man-induced movements of materials: this is the focus of dematerialization approach which emphasizes what socialist countries used to neglect most – minimizing the use of scarce input factors. This paper applies the dematerialization approach to the discussion on sustainable development in central and eastern Europe. In the early 1990s all countries in eastern Europe have developed new environmental programs which mainly focus on reducing pollution. Environmental strategies focusing on reducing emissions are important but not sufficient for reaching sustainability. A new orientation in the environmental policy in the young market economies is required. Dematerialization approach can be a new option for environmental policy in central and eastern Europe. Dematerialization requires a mix of instruments. Important role can be played by an ecological fiscal reform which covers ecological tax reform and the restructuring of subsidies.
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  • 37
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    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2018-02-08
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  • 38
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    Bonn : Bundesamt für Bauwesen und Raumordnung | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2018-03-26
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2016-04-28
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  • 40
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    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 41
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    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2014-08-15
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  • 42
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    Berlin : Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2016-04-28
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  • 43
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    Oxford : Oxford Univ. Press | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2018-11-21
    Description: Sustainable development, as it emerged in Agenda 21 from the Rio conference in 1992, will only be meaningful when it touches the lives of ordinary people; then it becomes a reality. Local Agenda 21 (LA21) seeks to achieve that objective. This article assesses the origins of LA21, reviews its social and political significance, and considers its prospects in the light of case study experience emerging from the UK, Germany and Norway, focusing on the role of local government as a major stakeholder in Agenda 21 (A21). The range of response to LA21 has proved to be varied. A successful transformation to a more sustainable world will require visionary political leadership, supportive administrations, networks of experience sharing, alliances with non‐governmental organisations and local industry, and effective community mobilisation. All of that, in turn, requires equally supportive economic and social policy backing from national governments. This article will indicate that, not surprisingly, it is the domestic political context, nationally and locally, which in the main determines the speed and nature of response to LA21, now and in the future. By understanding and being aware of these contexts, factors impeding progress towards LA21 may be addressed, whilst at the same time retaining the diversity of response which is an essential part of local sustainability.
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    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 47
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    Berlin : Carl-Duisberg-Ges. | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 49
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    Cheltenham : Elgar | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2018-04-12
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  • 50
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    Kiel : Inst. für die Pädagogik der Naturwissenschaften | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2014-08-15
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  • 51
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    New York : Berghahn | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 52
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    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 53
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    Baden-Baden : Nomos-Verl.-Ges. | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 54
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    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2018-03-26
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  • 55
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    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 56
    Publication Date: 2016-04-28
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  • 57
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    Bonn : Forum Umwelt & Entwicklung | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 58
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    Den Haag : Ministerie van Volkshuisvesting, Ruimtelijke Ordening en Milieubeheer | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2016-04-28
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  • 59
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    Oslo : Scandinavian Univ. Press | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 60
    Publication Date: 2018-03-26
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  • 61
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    [S. l.] : Environment Agency of Japan | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 62
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    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 63
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    Heidelberg : Physica-Verl. | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 64
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    Warsaw : Inst. for Sustainable Development | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 65
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    Basel : Birkhäuser | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2016-04-28
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  • 66
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    London : Routledge | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 67
    Publication Date: 2018-11-21
    Description: "Joint Implementation" (JI) is considered by many participants in the international negotiations on aclimate protocol to be an important economic instrument for the implementation of greenhouse gas obligations. Apart from a wide range of problems that still have to be resolved on the project level, the institutional and procedural design of such a mechanism is of vital importance. Because JI has a "perverse incentive" to overstate results achieved by individual projects, careful reporting, monitoring and verification procedures are essential. Furthermore, the institutional structure must reconcile the sometimes conflicting demands of overall effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. This paper explores the possible design of a future international mechanism for JI and makes recommendations with regard to the institutional and procedural requirements.
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  • 68
    Publication Date: 2021-05-21
    Description: This article aims to analyse the potential for international climate governance to promote the decarbonisation of land transport. It first summarises challenges and barriers that impede the transformation of the sector. On this basis, the article discusses how international governance could potentially assist with overcoming these barriers and mobilising potentials. Subsequently, the article analyses to what extent existing international governance institutions deliver on the potential identified. The analysis finds that while there is a large number of international institutions trying to promote the decarbonisation of land transport, none of them emerge saliently as hubs or core institutions. There is a substantial amount of activity to generate and disseminate knowledge and learning, but the potential for providing guidance and signal, setting rules, providing transparency/accountability and means of implementation could be further exploited. The article concludes with suggestions on how international governance may be strengthened.
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  • 69
    Publication Date: 2021-05-18
    Description: Climate change is a transformation challenge. It requires the transformation of a patchwork of independent socio-technical systems. These complex systems have their own specific challenges and path dependencies. Lukas Hermwille introduces a perspective on socio-technical complexity to the study of global climate governance and asks what governance arrangements on the international level, in particular the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Paris Agreement, can offer to facilitate and foster the required transformational change. His work shows the importance of the discursive power of global climate governance, shifting the expectations and visions of the future of key actors and, as a corollary, changing their investment decisions of today towards a more sustainable future.
    Keywords: ddc:320
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  • 70
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    Brussels : Friends of the Earth Europe | Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2018-11-19
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  • 71
    Publication Date: 2021-05-21
    Description: Fully decarbonising global power supply is essential to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement. A wide range of inter- and transnational governance institutions exist that work towards the transformation of the power sector. But are these governance efforts sufficient to address the challenges? To address this question the article first identifies governance needs on the basis of systemic sector-specific transformation challenges and discusses the potential for international governance to address them. Second, the paper surveys existing inter- and transnational institutions and assess to what extent they exploit the potential of international governance. The analysis shows that many of the governance needs are already being satisfied to some extent, particularly with respect to the deployment of renewable energy. It also shows that a significant blind spot remains: the phase-out of fossil fuels for electricity generation. The detailed analysis enables us to identify options for enhancing the governance landscape.
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  • 72
    Publication Date: 2021-04-20
    Description: While the Paris Agreement (PA) has enshrined ambitious long-term objectives, the current actions of the Parties to the Agreement fall far short of these goals. The Global Stocktake (GST), established in Art. 14 of the PA, may help narrow this gap between ambition and action: its purpose is to review the implementation of the PA and to assess the collective progress of the international community towards Paris goals. While some general modalities on how to conduct the GST have been adopted, the details are still to be determined. The objective of this report is to analyze existing international regimes as regards their review processes, the contribution of these review processes to various governance functions and, finally, to derive lessons for the GST. Processes analyzed include: the design of the upcoming Global Stocktake itself, the Talanoa Dialogue (TD) which is the direct precursor of the GST, the Agenda 2030 High-Level Political Forum (HLPF), which features a regular stocktaking process focused on progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the review processes of the UN human rights system (UNHRS) and the review processes and assessment panels of the Montreal Protocol (MP). The analysis of each review process is organised in four section: (1) political background and context, (2) technical and organisational details of the processes, (3) interface between the political and technical processes, and (4) how the review processes contribute to achieving the objectives of the respective regime, particularly governance functions of the regime (guidance and signal, transparency and accountability, and knowledge and learning).
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 73
    Publication Date: 2021-05-21
    Description: This article develops a sectoral approach to the analysis of global climate governance. This approach advances the assessment of global climate governance by focusing on complexes of intergovernmental and transnational institutions co-governing key socio-technical sectoral systems. The actual and potential contribution of these sectoral institutional complexes to advancing decarbonization can be assessed according to five key governance functions: (1) providing guidance and signal to actors, (2) setting rules to facilitate collective action, (3) enhancing transparency and accountability, (4) offering support (finance, technology, capacity-building), and (5) promoting knowledge and learning. On this basis, we can assess the potential of international cooperation to address the challenges specific sectoral systems face in the climate transition as well as the extent to which existing sectoral institutional complexes deliver on this potential. This provides a solid starting point for developing options for filling identified gaps and enhancing the effectiveness of global climate governance.
    Keywords: ddc:320
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  • 74
    Publication Date: 2021-07-28
    Description: This paper examines the Global Climate Action Agenda (GCAA) and discusses options to improve sub- and non-state involvement in post-2020 climate governance. A framework that stimulates sub- and non-state action is a necessary complement to national governmental action, as the latter falls short of achieving low-carbon and climate-resilient development as envisaged in the Paris Agreement. Applying design principles for an ideal-type orchestration framework, we review literature and gather expert judgements to assess whether the GCAA has been collaborative, comprehensive, evaluative and catalytic. Results show that there has been greater coordination among orchestrators, for instance in the organization of events. However, mobilization efforts remain event-driven and too little effort is invested in understanding the progress of sub- and non-state action. Data collection has improved, although more sophisticated indicators are needed to evaluate climate and sustainable development impacts. Finally, the GCAA has recorded more action, but relatively little by actors in developing countries. As the world seeks to recover from the COVID-19 crisis and enters a new decade of climate action, the GCAA could make a vital contribution in challenging times by helping governments keep and enhance climate commitments; strengthening capacity for sub- and non-state action; enabling accountability; and realizing sustainable development.
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  • 75
    Publication Date: 2021-08-06
    Description: Energy sufficiency is one of the three energy sustainability strategies, next to energy efficiency and renewable energies. We analyse to what extent European governments follow this strategy, by conducting a systematic document analysis of all available European National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) and Long-Term Strategies (LTSs). We collect and categorise a total of 230 sufficiency-related policy measures, finding large differences between countries. We find most sufficiency policies in the transport sector, when classifying also modal shift policies to change the service quality of transport as sufficiency policies. Types of sufficiency policy instruments vary considerably from sector to sector, for instance the focus on financial incentives and fiscal instruments in the mobility sector, information in the building sector, and financial incentive/tax instruments in cross-sectoral application. Regulatory instruments currently play a minor role for sufficiency policy in the national energy and climate plans of EU member states. Similar to energy efficiency in recent decades, sufficiency still largely referred to as micro-level individual behaviour change or necessary exogenous trends that will need to take place. It is not treated yet as a genuine field of policy action to provide the necessary framework for enabling societal change.
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  • 76
    Publication Date: 2021-05-18
    Description: Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are commonly used by decision makers in order to derive climate policies. IAMs are currently based on climate-economics interactions, whereas the role of social system has been highlighted to be of prime importance on the implementation of climate policies. Beyond existing IAMs, we argue that it is therefore urgent to increase efforts in the integration of social processes within IAMs. For achieving such a challenge, we present some promising avenues of research based on the social branches of economics. We finally present the potential implications yielded by such social IAMs.
    Keywords: ddc:320
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  • 77
    Publication Date: 2020-12-09
    Description: The ultimate goal of German Resource Efficiency Programme (ProgRess) is to make the extraction and use of natural resources more sustainable and reduce associated environmental pollution as much as possible. By doing this - also with responsibility towards future generations - the programme should create a prerequisite for securing a long-term high quality of life. To bring the policy approaches formulated in ProgRess to reality, efforts to implement resource efficiency measures have to be increased at all levels - from international to regional to local. The chapter intends to provide an impetus for the current debate on ProgRess policy development. The chapter identifies, analyses and describes deficits and possibilities of vertical integration of the German programme in particular and derives recommendations for action which may also serve as indications for other strategies. The following sections are based on results of the advisory report "Vertical integration of the national resource efficiency programme ProgRess (VertRess)", conducted by the German Institute of Urban Affairs (Difu) and the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy on behalf of the German Environmental Agency (UBA) and the Federal Ministry of the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU).
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  • 78
    Publication Date: 2021-05-21
    Description: This concluding article derives six major findings from the contributions to this special issue. First, the barriers and challenges to decarbonisation vary significantly across sectoral systems. Second, and similarly, the need and potential for the five functions of international governance institutions to contribute to effective climate protection also vary widely. Third, while the pattern is uneven, there is a general undersupply of international climate governance. Fourth, the sectoral analyses confirm that the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement play an important overarching role but remain limited in advancing effective sectoral governance. Fifth, while non-environmental institutions may present important barriers to decarbonisation, more synergistic effects are possible. Sixth, our sectoral approach provides a sound basis on which to identify sector-specific policy options. The paper then offers reflections on the merits and limitations of the sectoral approach, before identifying avenues for future research to further advance the agenda.
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  • 79
    Publication Date: 2021-05-18
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  • 80
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: To account for model error on multiple scales in convective-scale data assimilation, we incorporate the small-scale additive noise based on random samples of model truncation error and combine it with the large-scale additive noise based on random samples from global climatological atmospheric background error covariance. A series of experiments have been executed in the framework of the operational Kilometre-scale ENsemble Data Assimilation system of the Deutscher Wetterdienst for a 2-week period with different types of synoptic forcing of convection (i.e., strong or weak forcing). It is shown that the combination of large- and small-scale additive noise is better than the application of large-scale noise only. The specific increase in the background ensemble spread during data assimilation enhances the quality of short-term 6-hr precipitation forecasts. The improvement is especially significant during the weak forcing period, since the small-scale additive noise increases the small-scale variability which may favor occurrence of convection. It is also shown that additional perturbation of vertical velocity can further advance the performance of combination.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; additive noise ; model truncation error ; multiscale ; radar data assimilation ; probabilistic forecasts
    Language: English
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  • 81
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: Clouds interact with atmospheric radiation and substantially modify the Earth's energy budget. Cloud formation processes occur over a vast range of spatial and temporal scales, which make their thorough numerical representation challenging. Therefore, the impact of parameter choices for simulations of cloud-radiative effects is assessed in the current study. Numerical experiments are carried out using the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model with varying grid spacings between 2.5 and 80 km and with different subgrid-scale parameterization approaches. Simulations are performed over the North Atlantic with either one-moment or two-moment microphysics and with convection being parameterized or explicitly resolved by grid-scale dynamics. Simulated cloud-radiative effects are compared to products derived from Meteosat measurements. Furthermore, a sophisticated cloud classification algorithm is applied to understand the differences and dependencies of simulated and observed cloud-radiative effects. The cloud classification algorithm developed for the satellite observations is also applied to the simulation output based on synthetic infrared brightness temperatures, a novel approach that is not impacted by changing insolation and guarantees a consistent and fair comparison. It is found that flux biases originate equally from clear-sky and cloudy parts of the radiation field. Simulated cloud amounts and cloud-radiative effects are dominated by marine, shallow clouds, and their behavior is highly resolution dependent. Bias compensation between shortwave and longwave flux biases, seen in the coarser simulations, is significantly diminished for higher resolutions. Based on the analysis results, it is argued that cloud-microphysical and cloud-radiative properties have to be adjusted to further improve agreement with observed cloud-radiative effects.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; Cloud-Radiative Effects ; TOA Energy Budget ; High-Resolution Simulations ; Meteosat Observations ; Cloud Classification ; Bias Decomposition
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  • 82
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: How the solar electromagnetic energy entering the Earth's atmosphere varied since preindustrial times is an important consideration in the climate change debate. Detrimental to this debate, estimates of the change in total solar irradiance (TSI) since the Maunder minimum, an extended period of weak solar activity preceding the industrial revolution, differ markedly, ranging from a drop of 0.75 W m−2 to a rise of 6.3 W m−2. Consequently, the exact contribution by solar forcing to the rise in global temperatures over the past centuries remains inconclusive. Adopting a novel approach based on state-of-the-art solar imagery and numerical simulations, we establish the TSI level of the Sun when it is in its least-active state to be 2.0 ± 0.7 W m−2 below the 2019 level. This means TSI could not have risen since the Maunder minimum by more than this amount, thus restricting the possible role of solar forcing in global warming.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; total solar irradiance
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  • 83
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: Volcanic eruptions are an important climate driver. The impact of Pinatubo-sized eruptions has been observed and is well constrained. The magnitude and duration of volcanic winter effects after supereruptions such as Toba remain disputed due to disagreement between the strong cooling predicted by models and much milder climate perturbations according to the paleodata. Here we present a reevaluated climate impact of a Toba-sized supereruption based on up-to-date GISS ModelE simulations. In this study, we account for all known primary mechanisms that govern the evolution of the volcanic plume and their nonlinear interactions. The SO 2 radiative effects are evaluated for the first time in coupled climate simulations with the interactive atmospheric chemistry module. We found that SO 2 effects on photochemistry, dynamics, and radiative forcing are especially prominent. Due to strong absorption in ultraviolet, SO 2 feedback on photochemistry partially offsets the limiting effect associated with aerosol microphysical processes. SO 2 greenhouse warming soothes the radiative cooling exerted by sulfate aerosols. SO 2 absorption in the shortwave and longwave causes radiative heating and lofting of the volcanic plume, and boosts the efficiency of SO 2 impact on photochemistry. Our analysis shows that SO 2 lifetime and magnitude of effects scale up and increase with the amount of emitted material. For a Pinatubo-sized eruption, SO 2 feedbacks on chemistry and dynamics are relevant only during the initial stage of the volcanic plume evolution, while local SO 2 concentrations are high. For a Toba-sized eruption, SO 2 effects are as important as sulfate aerosols and produce a less extreme volcanic winter.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; supereruption ; Toba ; volcanic winter ; sulfate aerosols ; climate impact ; sulfur dioxide
    Language: English
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  • 84
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: The joint effect of droplet sedimentation and wind shear on cloud top entrainment in stratocumulus is investigated with direct numerical simulations. Although it is well understood that droplet sedimentation weakens entrainment while wind shear enhances entrainment, there is no consensus on the magnitude of each process. We find that the entrainment reduction by droplet sedimentation is sufficiently strong to completely compensate the entrainment enhancement by wind shear, and thus, droplet sedimentation and wind shear effects can be equally important for cloud top entrainment. For instance, for the subtropical conditions considered here, droplet sedimentation weakens entrainment by up to 40% while wind shear enhances entrainment by up to 40%. This result implies that the droplet size distribution can substantially affect cloud lifetimes not only because of its effect on rain formation but also because of its effect on cloud top entrainment, which emphasizes the need for a better characterization of droplet size distributions in stratocumulus. A second implication is that entrainment velocity parametrizations should pay equal attention to droplet sedimentation and to wind shear effects.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; stratocumulus ; entrainment ; wind shear ; droplet sedimentation ; turbulence ; evaporative cooling
    Language: English
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  • 85
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: The quantification of factors leading to harmfully high levels of particulate matter (PM) remains challenging. This study presents a novel approach using a statistical model that is trained to predict hourly concentrations of particles smaller than 10  μm (PM10) by combining satellite-borne aerosol optical depth (AOD) with meteorological and land-use parameters. The model is shown to accurately predict PM10 (overall R 2 = 0.77, RMSE = 7.44  μg/m 3) for measurement sites in Germany. The capability of satellite observations to map and monitor surface air pollution is assessed by investigating the relationship between AOD and PM10 in the same modeling setup. Sensitivity analyses show that important drivers of modeled PM10 include multiday mean wind flow, boundary layer height (BLH), day of year (DOY), and temperature. Different mechanisms associated with elevated PM10 concentrations are identified in winter and summer. In winter, mean predictions of PM10 concentrations 〉35  μg/m 3 occur when BLH is below ∼500 m. Paired with multiday easterly wind flow, mean model predictions surpass 40  μg/m 3 of PM10. In summer, PM10 concentrations seemingly are less driven by meteorology, but by emission or chemical particle formation processes, which are not included in the model. The relationship between AOD and predicted PM10 concentrations depends to a large extent on ambient meteorological conditions. Results suggest that AOD can be used to assess air quality at ground level in a machine learning approach linking it with meteorological conditions.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; aerosol optical depth ; air quality ; PM10 ; machine learning ; drivers of air pollution ; MAIAC
    Language: English
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  • 86
    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: A new microphysical cirrus model to simulate ice crystal nucleation, depositional growth, and gravitational settling is described. The model tracks individual simulation ice particles in a vertical column of air and allows moisture and heat profiles to be affected by turbulent diffusion. Ice crystal size- and supersaturation-dependent deposition coefficients are employed in a one-dimensional model framework. This enables the detailed simulation of microphysical feedbacks influencing the outcome of ice nucleation processes in cirrus. The use of spheroidal water vapor fluxes enables the prediction of primary ice crystal shapes once microscopic models describing the vapor uptake on the surfaces of cirrus ice crystals are better constrained. Two applications addressing contrail evolution and cirrus formation demonstrate the potential of the model for advanced studies of aerosol-cirrus interactions. It is shown that supersaturation in, and microphysical and optical properties of, cirrus are affected by variable deposition coefficients. Vertical variability in ice supersaturation, ice crystal sedimentation, and high turbulent diffusivity all tend to decrease homogeneously nucleated ice number mixing ratios over time, but low ice growth efficiencies counteract this tendency. Vertical mixing induces a tendency to delay the onset of homogeneous freezing. In situations of sustained large-scale cooling, natural cirrus clouds may often form in air surrounding persistent contrails.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; cirrus ; cloud model ; microphysics
    Language: English
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  • 87
    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: Within a rapidly changing Arctic climate system, snow on sea ice is an important climate parameter. A common method to derive snow depth on an Arctic-wide scale is based on passive microwave satellite observations. However, the uncertainties of this method are not well constrained. In this study, we estimate the influence of geophysical parameters, including ice, snow, and atmospheric properties on passive microwave snow depth retrievals using a Monte Carlo uncertainty estimation. The results are based on model simulations from the Microwave Emission Model for Layered Snowpacks, the SNOWPACK model, and from the Passive and Active Microwave TRAnsfer model. All simulations are based on in situ observations obtained during the N-ICE2015 campaign. The average uncertainty in potential snow depth retrievals is between 11% and 19%, depending on the microwave frequencies used and increases with increasing snow depth. For lower-frequency retrievals (including 6.9 GHz), unknown snow properties are the strongest source of uncertainty while for higher-frequency retrievals (including 36.5 GHz), the contribution of ice, snow properties, and clouds is equally strong.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; snow ; remote sensing ; modeling ; Arctic
    Language: English
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  • 88
    Publication Date: 2021-10-27
    Description: Deforestation influences surface properties such as surface roughness, resulting in changes in the surface energy balance and surface temperature. Recent studies suggest that the biogeophysical effects are dominated by changing roughness, and it remains unclear whether this can be reconciled with earlier modeling studies that highlighted the importance of a reduction of evapotranspiration in the low latitudes and a reduction of net shortwave radiation at the surface in the high latitudes. To clarify this situation, we analyze the local effects of deforestation on surface energy balance and temperature in the MPI-ESM climate model by performing three separate experiments: switching from forest to grass all surface properties, only surface albedo, and only surface roughness. We find that the locally induced changes in surface temperature are dominated by changes in surface roughness for the annual mean, the response of the diurnal amplitude, and the seasonal response to deforestation. For these three quantities, the results of the MPI-ESM lie within the range of observation-based data sets. Deforestation-induced decreases in surface roughness contribute substantially to winter cooling in the boreal regions and to decreases in evapotranspiration in the tropics. By comparing the energy balance decompositions from the three experiments, the view that roughness changes dominate the biogeophysical consequences of deforestation can be reconciled with the earlier studies highlighting the relevance of evapotranspiration.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; deforestation ; land use change ; biogeophysical effects ; local effects ; surface roughness ; surface energy balance
    Language: English
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  • 89
    Publication Date: 2021-10-27
    Description: We show that there is a strong sensitivity of cloud microphysics to model time step in idealized convection-permitting simulations using the COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling model. Specifically, we found a 53% reduction in precipitation when the time step is increased from 1 to 15 s, changes to the location of precipitation and hail reaching the surface, and changes to the vertical distribution of hydrometeors. The effect of cloud condensation nuclei perturbations on precipitation also changes both magnitude and sign with the changing model time step. The sensitivity arises because of the numerical implementation of processes in the model, specifically the so-called “splitting” of the dynamics (e.g., advection and diffusion) and the parameterized physics (e.g., microphysics scheme). Calculating one step at a time (sequential-update splitting) gives a significant time step dependence because large supersaturation with respect to liquid is generated in updraft regions, which strongly affect parameterized microphysical process rates—in particular, ice nucleation. In comparison, calculating both dynamics and microphysics using the same inputs of temperature and water vapor (hybrid parallel splitting) or adding an additional saturation adjustment within the dynamics reduces the time step sensitivity of surface precipitation by limiting the supersaturation seen by the microphysics, although sensitivity to time step remains for some processes.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; convection permitting ; microphysics ; time step ; parallel splitting ; saturation adjustment ; physics-dynamics coupling
    Language: English
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  • 90
    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: Surfaces exposed to atmospheric cold temperature and humid environments are prone to ice accretion. Airplanes, electrical power transmission cables, and wind turbines are typical examples for which icing has to be considered. The measurement of the resulting ice shapes is a challenging process. While macroscopic characteristics of the ice geometry can be observed using photography and optical scanning techniques, microscopic measurements are difficult to conduct because grooved surface partially occludes the geometry of chasms. To overcome this optical inaccessibility, we propose a method to carry out detailed high-resolution measurements of the accretion surface with micro-computed tomography. This approach provides a unique visualization of the empty spaces in the feather region. The information obtained by this technique can improve the understanding of ice accretion physics and its computational modeling.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; atmospheric icing ; ice feather ; icing wind tunnel ; micro-computed tomography
    Language: English
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  • 91
    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: Gravity waves (GWs) are important for coupling the mesosphere to the lower atmosphere during sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Here, a minor SSW is internally generated in a simulation with the upper-atmosphere configuration of the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model. At a horizontal resolution of 20 km the simulation uses no GW drag parameterizations but resolves large fractions of the GW spectrum explicitly, including orographic and nonorographic sources. Consistent with previous studies, the simulated zonal-mean stratospheric warming is accompanied by zonal-mean mesospheric cooling. During the course of the SSW the mesospheric GW momentum flux (GWMF) turns from mainly westward to mainly eastward. Waves of large phase speed (40–80 m s −1) dominate the eastward GWMF during the peak phase of the warming. The GWMF is strongest along the polar night jet axis. Parameterizations of GWs usually assume straight upward propagation, but this assumption is often not satisfied. In the case studied here, a substantial amount of the GWMF is significantly displaced horizontally between the source region and the dissipation region, implying that the local impact of GWs on the mesosphere does not need to be above their local transmission through the stratosphere. The simulation produces significant vertically misaligned anomalies between the stratosphere and mesosphere. Observations by the Microwave Limb Sounder confirm the poleward tilt with height of the polar night jet and horizontal displacements between mesospheric cooling and stratospheric warming patterns. Thus, lateral GW propagation may be required to explain the middle-atmosphere temperature evolution in SSW events with significant zonally asymmetric anomalies.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; Sudden Stratospheric Warming ; Gravity wave propagation ; Zonal asymmetries ; High-resolution climate model ; Microwave Limb Sounder ; Tilt of polar night jet
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  • 92
    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: Geopotential height measurements from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder between 9- and 97-km altitudes during 2004–2018 are used to examine long-period (3–20 days) wave activity during the Northern Hemisphere winter and spring, with the primary focus on the response of normal mode Rossby waves in the middle atmosphere to sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Unusually large westward propagating waves with Zonal Wave Number 1 and period ∼10 days are observed at 55° latitude at the stratopause height (∼48 km) and above following final warmings of 2016, 2015, and 2005. In each case, large-amplitude waves are observed for the duration of two to three wave cycles. Characteristics of the waves are in conformity with the second antisymmetric Rossby normal mode of Zonal Wave Number 1, or the quasi-10-day wave. The growth rate of the waves is significantly greater than the classical normal mode in the upper stratosphere (approximately 30–50 km) where instability conditions are met, indicating the amplification or excitation of the waves in that region. The response of the quasi-10-day wave during midwinter SSWs, and also during the spring transition without an SSW, is not as obvious as the wave response during final warmings. The results suggest that not only the occurrence of SSW but also the seasonal timing of SSW is an important factor for the transient variability of the quasi-10-day wave in the middle atmosphere.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; sudden stratospheric warming ; Rossby waves ; planetary waves ; quasi-10-day wave ; stratosphere ; mesosphere
    Language: English
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  • 93
    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: A realistic simulation of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) depends on an accurate representation of the land–atmosphere coupling. Land surface temperature (LST) plays an important role in this context and the assimilation of LST can lead to improved estimates of the boundary layer and its processes. We assimilated synthetic satellite LST retrievals derived from a nature run as truth into a fully coupled, state-of-the-art land–atmosphere numeric weather prediction model. As assimilation system a local ensemble transform Kalman filter was used and the control vector was augmented by the soil temperature and humidity. To evaluate the concept of the augmented control vector, two-day case-studies with different control vector settings were conducted for clear-sky periods in March and August 2017. These experiments with hourly LST assimilation were validated against the nature run and overall, the RMSE of atmospheric and soil temperature of the first-guess (and analysis) were reduced. The temperature estimate of the ABL was particularly improved during daytime as was the estimate of the soil temperature during the whole diurnal cycle. The best impact of LST assimilation on the soil and the ABL was achieved with the augmented control vector. Through the coupling between the soil and the atmosphere, the assimilation of LST can have a positive impact on the temperature forecast of the ABL even after 15 hr because of the memory of the soil. These encouraging results motivate further work towards the assimilation of real satellite LST retrievals.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; data assimilation ; land–atmosphere coupling ; land surface temperature ; LETKF
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  • 94
    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: Vortex streets formed in the stratocumulus-capped wake of mountainous islands are the atmospheric analogues of the classic Kármán vortex street observed in laboratory flows past bluff bodies. The quantitative analysis of these mesoscale unsteady atmospheric flows has been hampered by the lack of satellite wind retrievals of sufficiently high spatial and temporal resolution. Taking advantage of the cutting-edge Advanced Baseline Imager, we derived kilometer-scale cloud-motion winds at 5-min frequency for a vortex street in the lee of Guadalupe Island imaged by Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-16. Combined with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data, the geostationary imagery also provided accurate stereo cloud-top heights. The time series of geostationary winds, supplemented with snapshots of ocean surface winds from the Advanced Scatterometer, allowed us to capture the wake oscillations and measure vortex shedding dynamics. The retrievals revealed a markedly asymmetric vortex decay, with cyclonic eddies having larger peak vorticities than anticyclonic eddies at the same downstream location. Drawing on the vast knowledge accumulated about laboratory bluff body flows, we argue that the asymmetric island wake arises from the combined effects of Earth's rotation and Guadalupe's nonaxisymmetric shape resembling an inclined flat plate at low angle of attack. However, numerical simulations will need to establish whether or not the selective destabilization of the shallow atmospheric anticyclonic eddies is caused by the same mechanisms that destabilize the deep columnar anticyclones of laboratory flows, such as three-dimensional vertical perturbations due to centrifugal or elliptical instabilities.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; cloud-motion winds ; vortex street ; GOES-R ; ASCAT ; Karman ; satellite winds
    Language: English
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  • 95
    Publication Date: 2021-10-11
    Description: The El Niño phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is typically associated with below-average cool-season rainfall in southeastern Australia (SEA). However, there is also large case-to-case variability on monthly time-scales. Despite recent progress in understanding the links between remote climate drivers and this variability, the underlying dynamical processes are not fully understood. This reanalysis-based study aims to advance the dynamical understanding by quantifying the contribution of midlatitude weather systems to monthly precipitation anomalies over SEA during the austral winter–spring season. A k-means clustering reveals four rainfall anomaly patterns with above-average rainfall (Cluster 1), below-average rainfall (Cluster 2), above-average rainfall along the East Coast (Cluster 3) and along the South Coast (Cluster 4). Cluster 2 occurs most frequently during El Niño, which highlights the general suppression of SEA rainfall during these events. However, the remaining three clusters with local above-average rainfall are found in ∼52% of all El Niño months. Changes of weather system frequency determine the respective rainfall anomaly pattern. Results indicate significantly more cut-off lows and warm conveyor belts (WCBs) over SEA in El Niño Cluster 1 and significantly fewer in El Niño Cluster 2. In El Niño Cluster 3, enhanced blocking south of Australia favours cut-off lows leading to increased rainfall along the East Coast. Positive rainfall anomalies along the South Coast in El Niño Cluster 4 are associated with frontal rainfall due to an equatorward shift of the midlatitude storm track. Most of the rainfall is produced by WCBs and cut-off lows but the contributions strongly vary between the clusters. In all clusters, rainfall anomalies result from changes in rainfall frequency more than in rainfall intensity. Backward trajectories of WCB and cut-off low rainfall highlight the importance of moist air masses from the Coral Sea and the northwest coast of Australia during wet months.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; backward trajectories ; clustering ; El Niño ; rainfall decomposition ; rainfall origin ; rainfall variability ; southeastern Australia ; synoptic weather systems
    Language: English
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  • 96
    Publication Date: 2021-10-11
    Description: A pronounced warm anomaly occurred at the Peruvian coast in early 2017. This “Coastal Niño” caused heavy rainfalls, leading to flooding in Peru and Ecuador. At the same time, neutral conditions prevailed in the equatorial Pacific. Using observational sea surface temperature data sets and an ocean reanalysis product for the time period 1900 to 2010, previous similar events are investigated. Eighteen coastal warming events without corresponding equatorial Pacific warming are identified. Further analysis shows, however, that only four of these events are not connected to the central equatorial Pacific. All other periods of strong coastal warm anomalies are directly followed or preceded by El Niño-like conditions. The “stand-alone” coastal warming events are characterized by comparatively low equatorial heat content. We thus hypothesize that the depleted heat content in the equatorial Pacific in the wake of the strong 2015/2016 El Niño prevented the warming to spread westward in 2017.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; El Nino ; Coastal Warming ; Tropical Pacific
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  • 97
    Publication Date: 2021-10-11
    Description: Abstract Evaporation—a key process for water exchange between soil and atmosphere—is controlled by internal water fluxes and surface vapor fluxes. Recent studies demonstrated that the dynamics of the water flow in corners determine the time behavior of the evaporation rate. The internal water flux of the porous media is often described by capillary flow assuming complete wetting. Particularly, the crucial influence of partial wetting, that is, the nonlinear contact angle dependency of the capillary flow has been neglected so far. The focus of the paper is to demonstrate that SiO2-surfaces can exhibit contact angles of about 40°. This reduces the internal capillary flow by 1 order of magnitude compared to complete wetting. First, we derived the contact angle by inverse modeling. We conducted a series of evaporation experiments in a 2-D square lattice microstructure connected by lognormal distributed throats. We used an explicit analytical power series solution of the single square capillary model. A contact angle of 38° ± 1° was derived. Second, we directly measured the contact angle of the Si-SiO2 wafer using the Drop Shape Analyzer Krüss 100 and obtained an averaged contact angle of 42° ± 2°. The results support the single square capillary model as an appropriate model for the description of the evaporation process in an ideal square capillary.
    Keywords: 550.724 ; 551.5 ; evaporation ; experiments
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  • 98
    Publication Date: 2021-10-11
    Description: Coupled climate models participating in the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) exhibit a large intermodel spread in the representation of long-term trends in soil moisture and snow in response to anthropogenic climate change. We evaluate long-term (January 1861 to December 2099) water storage trends from 21 CMIP5 models against observed trends in terrestrial water storage (TWS) obtained from 14 years (April 2002 to August 2016) of the GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment) satellite mission. This is complicated due to the incomplete representation of TWS in CMIP5 models and interannual climate variability masking long-term trends in observations. We thus evaluate first the spread in projected trends among CMIP5 models and identify regions of broad model consensus. Second, we assess the extent to which these projected trends are already present during the historical period (January 1861 to August 2016) and thus potentially detectable in observational records available today. Third, we quantify the degree to which 14-year tendencies can be expected to represent long-term trends, finding that regional long-term trends start to emerge from interannual variations after just 14 years while stable global trend patterns are detectable after 30 years. We classify regions of strong model consensus into areas where (1) climate-related TWS changes are supported by the direction of GRACE trends, (2) mismatch of trends hints at possible model deficits, (3) the short observation time span and/or anthropogenic influences prevent reliable conclusions about long-term wetting or drying. We thereby demonstrate the value of satellite observations of water storage to further constrain the response of the terrestrial water cycle to climate change.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; GRACE ; CMIP5 ; water storage trends
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  • 99
    Publication Date: 2021-10-13
    Description: Current climate models still suffer from many biases which are partly due to excessive subgrid-scale dissipation. Here we systematically develop energetically consistent stochastic energy backscatter (SEB) and deterministic energy backscatter (DEB) parametrization schemes. We implement our schemes in a simplified spectral atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM). It is shown that the SEB scheme performs better than the DEB scheme at low horizontal resolutions (T21 and T31), whereas the performance of both schemes becomes comparable as the resolution increases to T42 when comparing with our reference simulation at T127 resolution. The energy backscatter parametrization schemes improve eddy variability in low-resolution models and correctly capture the dominant mode of zonal-mean zonal wind variability. The autocorrelation time-scale of low-resolution models is also found to be more consistent with the reference simulation when applying the SEB and DEB parametrizations. Our schemes are scale-adaptive and computationally efficient.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; atmospheric models ; deterministic backscatter scheme ; energy consistent parametrizations ; scale-adaptive parametrizations ; stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme
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  • 100
    Publication Date: 2021-10-14
    Description: By mediating evapotranspiration processes, plant canopies play an important role in the terrestrial water cycle and regional climate. Substantial uncertainties exist in modeling canopy water interception and related hydrological processes due to rainfall forcing frequency selection and varying canopy traits. Here we design a new time interpolation method “zero” to better represent convective-type precipitation in tropical regions. We also implement and recalibrate plant functional type-specific interception parameters for rainforests and oil palm plantations, where oil palms express higher water interception capacity than forests, using the Community Land Model (CLM) versions 4.5 and 5.0 with CLM-Palm embedded. Reconciling the interception scheme with realistic precipitation forcing produces more accurate canopy evaporation and transpiration for both plant functional types, which in turn improves simulated evapotranspiration and energy partitioning when benchmarked against observations from our study sites in Indonesia and an extensive literature review. Regional simulations for Sumatra and Kalimantan show that industrial oil palm plantations have 18–27% higher transpiration and 15–20% higher evapotranspiration than forests on an annual regional average basis across different ages or successional stages, even though the forests experience higher average precipitation according to reanalysis data. Our land-only modeling results indicate that current oil palm plantations in Sumatra and Kalimantan use 15–20% more water (mean 220 mm or 20 Gt) per year compared to lowland rainforests of the same extent. The extra water use by oil palm reduces soil moisture and runoff that could affect ecosystem services such as productivity of staple crops and availability of drinking water in rural areas.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; canopy interception ; forcing frequency ; evapotranspiration ; Community Land Model ; land use change ; oil palm
    Language: English
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