ALBERT

Description: India has made significant progress in utilising its abundant renewable energy (RE) resources. The country has emerged as one of the leaders of the global energy transition, with a cumulative renewable energy installed capacity of 74 gigawatts (GW) at the end of 2018, and has ambitions to meet a target of 175 GW by the year 2022. Further, as recently announced by India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), the government seeks to procure approximately 500 GW of additional RE capacity by the year 2028, resulting to a 40 percent share of installed capacity of non-fossil fuel sources in the power sector by 2030. Notwithstanding these targets, the employment effects of the resulting changes in the power sector still need to be properly understood. This study analyses the employment effects of different plans for expanding power generation in India; this was carried out in the context of the COBENEFITS project with the aim of assessing the co-benefits of a low-carbon energy transition in the country. Four different scenarios are analysed for future development of the power sector in India with varying shares of renewable energy: Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which represents India’s climate policy until 2016; Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario, which maps the strategies required to achieve India’s NDCs targets; NDC PLUS (NDC PLUS) scenario, which is a deeper decarbonisation plan above the NDC scenario; and the International Renewable Energy Association (IRENA) REmap (REmap) scenario, which provides a power sector decarbonisation pathway for India to contribute towards limiting global temperature rise to well below 2° Celsius by 2100. The study presents a value-chain-based approach by developing employment coefficients (full-time-equivalent jobs/MW/year) to analyse the workforce involved at various stages of the entire life cycle of different power generation technologies. The study also provides an initial assessment of the skill requirements, attainment levels and technical training required for India’s present power sector plans and future low-carbon power sector ambitions. The four scenarios assessed considered a consistent timeline between 2020 and 2050.

Description: The global energy transition is characterised by a myriad of technology options, organisational forms and infrastructural scales across levels of operation. Energy transitions are generally considered to foster sustainable development. However, technologies deemed sustainable in some dimensions can cause environmental or social problems in other dimensions or scales. In addition, freedom and self-determination are desirable features often associated with cooperative bottom-up initiatives. However, these initiatives may not always result in appropriate processes and strategies that span ecological and socio-technical dimensions. Direct participation or better representation of stakeholders ingrained in cooperative structures do not necessarily coalesce social and environmental benefits. We distinguish between different types of participation options across economic, technical and social levels; in line with the concepts of energy citizenship and sovereignty. We also differentiate technical infrastructure dimensions from those that are more political, economic or socially determined. The main purpose of our justice-oriented assessment approach is to make explicit unintended and undesirable effects of transition processes visible, and to capture the impacts of infrastructural and organisational dimensions of energy systems. The assessment of case studies qualitatively along several dimensions (infrastructural, organisational, impact) revealed which externalities result from prosumer-based electricity systems, conventional energy utilities and other organisational systems.

Description: This study was initiated by the European Commission Directorate-General for Climate Action, and attributed to a team of experts from Ramboll, the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Universität Kassel Center for Environmental Systems Research, IOM Law, and CE Delft. The study’s objectives are to build a better understanding of novel CCU technologies with three main sub-objectives: 1. to assess the readiness and map the roll out of different CCU technologies in order to clarify which types of technologies are viable for support, including from the planned Innovation Fund under the EU ETS; 2. to examine the EU regulatory set up related to the technologies concerned and assess whether specific provisions are necessary to reflect the contribution by these innovative technologies to climate mitigation while preserving the environmental integrity of the relevant legislation; and 3. to engage with stakeholders for better understanding of the technologies and the legislative setup. To achieve its objectives, the study team conducted a review of the literature on CCU; a web search on the status of existing technologies; a review of relevant legislation; as well as stakeholder consultations in the form of a survey, interviews, two stakeholder workshops and an open event. The study draws from existing knowledge and research, and represents a state-of-the-art review of the current technological and policy status of CCU in Europe.

Description: This article analyses the narratives of impact-driven transition research in the field of sustainability studies. It reconstructs patterns of narrations at a discourse level. Departing from the understanding that narrating is a fundamental mode of communication and education, this contribution is ultimately driven by the commitment to understand how narrativity can be improved in order to reach more effective rhetoric for sustainability research. The article starts by describing the dilemma sustainability researchers might find themselves in regarding their position vis-à-vis society and politics. This dilemma seems to shape the narratives researchers use for describing their work. After conceptualizing narratives on a structural level, findings from a comprehensive qualitative interview study are presented and discussed. We find that sustainability researchers can be clustered in five different types, depending on their affinity or distance to real-world sustainability processes, their propensity to either incremental reforms or transformative change and the relationship between environmental and social concerns in the context of the sustainability concept. Furthermore, we find that critical-constructive transformative research encounters challenges when narrating about its position vis-à-vis society and policy-making in the process of formulating goals and working towards them. We identified a tension between leaning stronger either towards independent, critical goal formulation or towards an engagement with actual political processes. Maintaining the ability to change roles between the process-involved and the process-observing sustainability researcher might be a promising way out for those dedicated to workings towards sustainability transitions.

Description: Against the background of more than one billion people worldwide without regular access to clean water and sanitation, an intensive debate has been going on about water security for many years now. The social sciences have been dealing with the phenomenon of (environmental) security for some time. Their interest relates on the one hand to the meaning and content of security, but also to the contexts, practices and discursive intentions of those who engage in security debate. In this respect, there is a division between those researchers who want to actively engage in creating of water security, but who run the risk of legitimizing problematic policies, and those who, in the poststructuralist tradition, take a critical eye on discourses and practices of security, but who hesitate to offer guidance for action. This paper explores this dilemma of water security between Scylla and Charybdis and hints at contributions of application-oriented ethics to navigate this dilemma.

Description: This guide for action can be used by decision-makers at any level or in any form of organisation or business to identify how to respond to the Fridays for Future Movement in a way that is meaningful, responsive and impactful.

Description: Several countries’ national determined contributions (NDCs) highlight climate finance as a precondition for the ambitious action needed to achieve development paths compatible with limiting global warming to 1.5°C in 2100. Many hopes have been pinned on new market mechanisms in this context, but the trade-offs demanded by carbon trading schemes continued to be hotly debated at the UNFCCC last week, not least due to their political and economic implications.

Description: This chapter provides an overview of the international and national regulatory framework pertaining to deep seabed mining activities. It begins by discussing the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, the backdrop for all marine activities – be they national or international – and examines the obligations of states to protect the marine environment from the harmful effects arising from deep seabed mining. Next, the chapter examines the international regime for deep seabed mining (i.e. “activities in the Area”), explaining the “common heritage of mankind” status of the Area (i.e. the international seabed); the functions of the International Seabed Authority (ISA), the international organization established to govern deep seabed mining in the Area; and the concept of state sponsorship of non-state entities (i.e. private actors) for deep seabed mining in the Area. The chapter follows with a discussion of the development of national legislation to regulate deep seabed mining, examining efforts in the Pacific region where many prospective deep-sea mining sites are located. This includes a look at the legislative regimes of several Pacific Island nations, namely, Papua New Guinea, Tonga and the Cook Islands, for whom deep seabed mining may soon become a reality – as well as New Zealand and Japan, countries with comparatively developed rule of law and legislative regimes that have undertaken or considered deep seabed mining in their national waters. Overall, the chapter critically describes and evaluates the current regulatory status in the international and national seabed areas and highlights some salient gaps that require urgent attention in order to ensure marine environmental protection and mitigate impacts on humans.

Description: What is democratic theory? The question is surprisingly infrequently posed. Indeed, the last time this precise question appears in the academic archive was exactly forty years ago, in James Alfred Pennock’s (1979) book Democratic Political Theory. This is an odd discursive silence not observable in other closely aligned fields of thought such as political theory, political science, social theory, philosophy, economic theory, and public policy/administration – each of which have asked the “what is” question of themselves on regular occasion. The premise of this special issue is, therefore, to pose the question anew and break this forty-year silence.

Description: This policy brief offers recommendations for how to meaningfully respond to the Fridays for the Future movement in a way that addresses three key pillars: urgent climate action, participatory future-making and climate justice for young people and future generations.

Description: Air pollution is understudied in sub-Saharan Africa, resulting in a gap in the scientific understanding of emissions, atmospheric processes, and impacts of air pollutants in this region. The Rwanda Climate Observatory, a joint partnership between MIT and the government of Rwanda, has been measuring ambient concentrations of key long-lived greenhouse gases and the short-lived climate-forcing pollutants CO2, CO, CH4, black carbon (BC), and O3 with state-of-the-art instruments on the summit of Mt. Mugogo (1.586∘ S, 29.566∘ E; 2590 m above sea level) since May 2015. Rwanda is a small, mountainous, and densely populated country in equatorial East Africa, currently undergoing rapid development but still at less than 20 % urbanization. Black carbon concentrations during Rwanda's two dry seasons (December–January–February, DJF, and June–July–August, JJA), which coincide with the two regional biomass burning seasons, are higher at Mt. Mugogo than in major European cities with daily values (24 h) during the dry season of around 5 µg m−3 (daily average concentrations ranging from less than 0.1 to over 17 µg m−3 for the entire measurement period). BC baseline concentrations during biomass burning seasons are loosely correlated with fire radiative power data for the region acquired with a MODIS satellite instrument. The position and meteorology of Rwanda is such that the emissions transported from both the northern and southern African biomass burning seasons affect BC, CO, and O3 concentrations in Rwanda. Spectral aerosol absorption measured with a dual-spot Aethalometer varies seasonally due to changes in types of fuel burned and the direction of pollution transport to the site. Ozone concentrations peaked during Rwanda's dry seasons (daily measured maximum of 70 ppbv). The understanding and quantification of the percent contributions of regional and local (beyond large-scale biomass) emissions is essential to guide policy in the region. During the rainy seasons, local emitting activities (e.g., cooking, transportation, trash burning) remain steady, regional biomass burning is low, and transport distances are shorter as rainout of pollution occurs regularly. Thus, local pollution at Mugogo can be estimated during this time period and was found to account for up to 35 % of annual average BC measured. Our measurements indicate that air pollution is a current and growing problem in equatorial East Africa.

Description: Last week in Germany, retired pulmonary physician Dieter Köhler made waves by publishing a statement, signed by over one hundred other fellow lung doctors, calling into question the science behind air quality standards and suggesting that current EU-wide limits for nitrogen oxides and fine particulate matter are unnecessarily strict. Not coincidentally, this comes at a time when diesel driving bans are being imposed in many German cities because of their inability to meet the EU-wide limit value for nitrogen dioxide (NO2), for which diesel cars are the main source. This has sparked debate on many levels, from the journalistic to the political. In this blog post we specifically address the topic of air quality limit values based on our expertise in the fields of air quality and public health.

Description: Energy access is essential for economic and human development and is an important driver for the economic development of a country. Access to modern forms of energy, especially electricity, becomes even more important for the socio-economic development of rural areas (which lag behind urban areas in terms of infrastructure development). “Full electrification” to achieve social and economic development goals (and SDGs) in Vietnam requires 24/7 electricity access for every household, family, farming settlement and local enterprise, even in rural communities. To achieve this goal, the government of Vietnam has focused primarily on providing access by extending the centralised grid. Approximately 98 % of households in both urban and rural areas of the country have been electrified through this means, but electricity access to the remaining 2% of the population, predominantly located in regions with terrain unfavourable to grid expansion, has become a technoeconomic moot point. To this end, discussions have explored whether cost-effective, off-grid renewable energy (RE) alternatives could assist the electrification of these remaining populations and further drive the socioeconomic development of these population groups.

Description: From February 6 to 8, 2019, Leuphana University of Lüneburg hosted the first ever Leverage Points conference on sustainability research and transformation. On behalf of the whole Leverage Points project team from Leuphana University, members of the team take stock with colleagues from the Bridging the Great Divide project from Leuphana University, and the NaWis network.

Description: Air pollution, primarily from coal-fired power plants, is one of the main impacts that the energy sector has on the environment and human health. These pollutants have many negative impacts, of which those of greatest concern include heart disease, lung cancer, stroke and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (WHO, 2016). The consequences of such diseases include increased levels of morbidity, which further result in elevated health costs and losses of productivity. This study quantifies the impacts of South Africa’s power sector on human health, and how a shift to a less carbon-intensive power sector can help to reduce negative impacts and contribute to reducing costs in South Africa’s health system.

Description: Germany wishes to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 80 to 95 per cent by 2050. However, despite the success to date, the measures which have already been planned and implemented are not sufficient for achieving this ambitious goal. In addition to the energy sector, the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, German industry is also responsible for releasing considerable volumes of global warming gases. In its Climate Action Plan 2050, the Federal Government has for the first time set a sector target for industry. The present acatech POSITION PAPER analyses the options for (re)utilising and storing CO2 (Carbon Capture and Utilisation (CCU) and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)) which come into consideration for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from industrial processes. It is recommended that a wide-ranging public debate about the use of CCU and CCS be conducted in the near future. Only then will it be possible to take account of reservations about CCU and CCS, further develop suitable technology in good time and bring it to market maturity so that the necessary infrastructure can be planned, approved, funded and constructed.

Description: Climate models aiming to explore how global warming can be limited to the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius usually invoke sweeping technical and societal transformations, including the extensive use of carbon dioxide removal technologies. In our Perspective, we argue that this reliance on technologies that may be difficult or impossible to implement at the required scale makes the Paris temperature goals increasingly less plausible, drawing into question a key basis and shared anchor of current climate science, politics, and activism. A way forward is the innovative concept of nationally determined contributions to climate risk reduction, introduced in the Paris Agreement, which fosters greater democratic engagement, accountability, and meaningful change toward mitigating and adapting to climate change.

Description: This article examines the post-truth debate and questions the argument that post-modernism and social constructivism is responsible for post-truth and alternative facts, including in climate denial. The article argues that social constructivism is not the problem but rather an epistemological orientation that helps us better understand the rise of post-truth. Toward this end, the essay examines the way empirical findings are translated into political knowledge and the role of science in “truth regimes”. From this perspective, there is no amount of fact-checking alone that will resolve the post-truth problem. The argument is illustrated with the case of climate denial.

Description: Dieser Bericht ist ein Ergebnis des Forschungs- und Entwicklungsprojektes "Ökologische Leitplanken für den Tiefseebergbau", Oktober 2015 bis Dezember 2017, in Auftrag gegeben durch das Umweltbundesamt, UBA. Aufgrund des in den letzten Jahren wiedererwachten Interesses für einen Abbau von Rohstoffen in der Tiefsee, und Anstrengungen, den notwendigen Rechtsrahmen in nationalen und internationalen Gewässern zu schaffen, wird jetzt dringend auch ein Konzept für den effektiven Schutz der Meeresumwelt vor den Folgen des Rohstoffabbaus erforderlich. Im sogenannten "Gebiet", dem Meeresboden jenseits nationaler Grenzen, hat die Internationale Meeresbodenbehörde, ISA, die Aufgabe, den Meeresboden und seine Rohstoffe im Namen von und zum Vorteil der gesamten Menschheit (‘for the benefit of mankind as a whole‘) zu verwalten. Dazu gehört der Erlass von Regeln, Bestimmungen und Verfahren, welche die Auswirkungen der mit der Erkundung und dem Abbau von Rohstoffen im Gebiet zusammenhängenden Tätigkeiten in einem Rahmen hält, welcher die Vorgaben für den "effektiven Schutz der Meeresumwelt vor den Folgen der Tätigkeiten", wie im internationalen Seerecht gefordert, einhält. Der vorliegende Text zeigt Möglichkeiten auf, wie die ISA mit dem Instrumentarium des modernen vorsorgenden und präventiven Umweltmanagements die regulatorische Kontrolle über die Umweltbelastungen durch Tätigkeiten im Gebiet ausüben kann. Angesichts der großen Wissenslücken über die potentiell betroffenen Tiefseeökosysteme und die möglicherweise eingesetzte Technik scheint es allerdings zur Zeit unmöglich, auch mit den besten Verfahren den Grad der zu erwartenden Umweltschäden einzuschätzen. Daher ist schon der Weg das Ziel, indem die ISA sich als moderne, umweltbewusste Organisation präsentiert, welche den Vorsorgeansatz und internationale Verpflichtungen zum Schutz der Meeresumwelt und zur nachhaltigen Entwicklung ernst nimmt und ihr Mandat unter Einbeziehung der derzeitigen und voraussichtlich zukünftigen Veränderungen der Meeresökosysteme bis in die Tiefsee ausübt.

Description: This report presents findings from the research and development project "Ecological Safeguards for Deep Seabed Mining" commissioned by the German Environment Agency (UBA) to the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) (October 2015 - December 2017). Interest in seabed mineral mining has renewed in recent years for various reasons and new offshore mining legislation is currently being developed for national and international waters. For this reason, agreement on the meaning of ‘effective protection of the marine environment from adverse effects arising from activities’ related to mining is needed. The International Seabed Authority (ISA) is mandated to manage access to and benefits from the seabed, subsoil and its mineral resources in the Area on behalf of mankind as a whole. This legal mandate comprises the development of rules, regulations and procedures for mining-related activities in the Area, which must prevent, reduce and control harm to the marine environment and ensure that such harm does not breach the standard of ‘effective protection’. The present text provides suggestions for how the ISA could effectively regulate the environmental effects of activities in the Area using a toolkit of modern, precautionary and preventive governance and management instruments and measures. However, due to large gaps in ecological knowledge and technical experience pertaining to the deep sea, it is currently impossible to predict with any certainty the degree of risk mining activities pose to deep sea ecosystems. By developing such a toolkit, the ISA could spearhead a modern, comprehensive approach to precautionary governance of the Area in line with today’s environmental challenges.

Description: Carbonaceous aerosols (CAs) scatter and absorb incident solar radiation in the atmosphere, thereby influencing the regional climate and hydrological cycle, particularly in the Third Pole (TP). Here, we present the characteristics of CAs at 19 observation stations from the Atmospheric Pollution and Cryospheric Change network to obtain a deep understanding of pollutant status in the TP. The organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) concentrations decreased noticeably inwards from outside to inland of the TP, consistent with their emission load and also affected by transport process and meteorological condition. Urban areas, such as Kathmandu, Karachi, and Mardan, exhibited extremely high OC and EC concentrations, with low and high values occurring in the monsoon and non-monsoon seasons, respectively. However, remote regions inland the TP (e.g., Nam Co and Ngari) demonstrated much lower OC and EC concentrations. Different seasonal variations were observed between the southern and northern parts of the TP, suggesting differences in the patterns of pollutant sources and in distance from the sources between the two regions. In addition to the influence of long-range transported pollutants from the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), the TP was affected by local emissions (e.g., biomass burning). The OC/EC ratio also suggested that biomass burning was prevalent in the center TP, whereas the marginal sites (e.g., Jomsom, Dhunche, and Laohugou) were affected by fossil fuel combustion from the up-wind regions. The mass absorption cross-section of EC (MACEC) at 632 nm ranged from 6.56 to 14.7 m2 g−1, with an increasing trend from outside to inland of the TP. Urban areas had low MACEC values because such regions were mainly affected by local fresh emissions. In addition, large amount of brown carbon can decrease the MACEC values in cities of South Asia. Remote sites had high MACEC values because of the coating enhancement of aerosols. Influenced by emission, transport process, and weather condition, the CA concentrations and MACEC presented decreasing and increasing trends, respectively, from outside to inland of the TP.

Description: A compelling body of research demonstrates associations between urban design and health, but this research is often not reflected in urban policies. This article reviews the literature on the science and practice of translating health research into urban policy and planning. Two Australian case studies demonstrate how policy frameworks can help guide evidence-based planning for healthy urban environments. To influence city planning, health researchers need to undertake policy-relevant research and understand policymaking processes. Policy frameworks can assist researchers to tailor research evidence and research translation strategies to the political and policymaking context. Strong links between urban policymakers and health researchers can help bridge the knowledge-policy divide. Policy frameworks can help researchers to identify and capitalise on windows of opportunity for evidence-based policy change. Doing so increases the likelihood of public health evidence informing urban policies that will create healthy liveable cities.

Description: Time is discussed as a framework within which social interactions take place, a structure for synchronization and a resource for planning activities and projects. The centrality of time for cultural development is argued to be rooted in the relationship to finitude, change, and the rhythmicity of nature. Calendars facilitated social structuring, synchronization, and regulation, clock time the commodification and compression of time. With networked information and communication technologies, global simultaneity and instantaneity have displaced duration and distance and clock time is losing some of its all‐embracing relevance. Each of these technologies has changed the meaning of time, its cultural significance and, as such, impacted on social organization.

Description: The important role that climate leaders and leadership play at different levels of the European Union (EU) multilevel governance system is exemplified. Initially, climate leader states set the pace with ambitious policy measures that were adopted largely on an ad hoc basis. Since the mid-1980s, the EU has developed a multilevel climate governance system that has facilitated leadership and lesson-drawing at all governance levels including the local level. The EU has become a global climate policy leader by example although it had been set up as a ‘leaderless Europe’. The resulting ‘leadership without leader’ paradox cannot be sufficiently explained merely by reference to top-level EU climate policies. Local-level climate innovations and lesson-drawing have increasingly been encouraged by the EU’s multilevel climate governance system which has become more polycentric. The recognition of economic co-benefits of climate policy measures has helped to further the EU’s climate leadership role.

Description: Air pollution remains a problem in German cities. In particular, the nitrogen dioxide (NO2) annual limit-value set by the European Union of 40 µg/m3 was not met at ~40% of roadside monitoring stations across German cities in 2018. In response to this issue, many cities are experimenting with various traffic-reducing measures targeting diesel passenger vehicles so as to reduce emissions of NO2 and improve air quality. Identifying the determinants of public acceptance for these measures using a systematic approach can help inform policy-makers in other German cities. Survey data generated from a questionnaire in Potsdam, Germany, were used in predictive models to quantify support for investments in traffic-reducing measures generally and to quantify support for a specific traffic-reducing measure implemented in Potsdam in 2017. This exploratory analysis found that general support for investments in such measures was most strongly predicted by environmental and air pollution perception variables, whereas specific support for the actual traffic measure was most strongly predicted by mobility habits and preferences. With such measures becoming more common in German cities and across Europe, these results exemplify the complexity of factors influencing public acceptance of traffic-reducing policies, highlight the contrasting roles environmental beliefs and mobility habits play in determining support for such measures, and emphasize the connections between mobility, air pollution, and human health.

Description: Urban mobility is the main source of air pollution in Europe and accounts for 25% of greenhouse gas emissions. In order to address this, a range of interventions and policies are being implemented across major European cities and studies in sustainable urban transport have proliferated. One such mitigation strategy involves redesigning urban form through 'hard' traffic policies, with a view of decreasing emission levels and therefore mitigating the effects of air pollution and climate change. However, efforts to assess public response to such interventions and the effectiveness of policy instruments in promoting sustainable travel in cities remain sparse. The city of Potsdam, Germany implemented a trial traffic measure aimed at reducing motorized traffic and promoting the use of bicycles and public transport systems. This study analysed data from 3553 survey participants who responded to a survey conducted prior to the implementation of the traffic measure. We aimed to identify mobility behaviours and underlying attitudes within the context of a 'hard' policy instrument, in order to obtain insight into the opportunities to more effectively define policy priorities that improve air quality and upscale climate mitigation. An exploratory cluster analysis identified four groups, characterised by mobility habits, their attitudes towards the measure, and general level of environmental concern. By identifying and understanding the differing attitudes and perceptions across population groups we are able to highlight group-specific barriers and opportunities, as well as potential transition pathways to encourage more sustainable transportation use. This study exemplifies how context can help to further shape mobility group typologies, identify policy-related priorities useful for decision-makers and assess the feasibility of policy instruments to facilitate a transformation towards more sustainable cities.

Description: The improvement of energy consumption efficiency represents a significant task and a critical step toward sustainable energy transformations. This study uses a data envelopment analysis (DEA) and spatial autocorrelation method to conduct comprehensive measurement and assessment research on the economic-environmental efficiency of energy consumption in 31 Chinese provinces. It then carries out a synthetic study on energy consumption efficiency in the context of temporal and spatial dimensions, analyzes the characteristics and patterns related to temporal and spatial evolution, and systematically summarizes the temporal and spatial evolution processes associated with China’s economic-environmental efficiency in energy consumption. The results show that economic efficiency and environmental efficiency, both directly related to energy consumption, are positively correlated and display a parallel and synchronizing relationship. China’s energy consumption efficiency displays an upward trend in general, although differences exist between economic efficiency and environmental efficiency about the growth rate and overall development level. In other words, economic efficiency is generally higher than environmental efficiency. A positive spatial correlation occurs between economic and environmental efficiency in energy consumption across all the Chinese provinces studied. Furthermore, some cluster characteristic can be identified. Accurately, the eastern coastal area of China with a higher efficiency represents a spatial cluster of high values, whereas the midwestern inland area of China with a lower efficiency represents a spatial cluster of low values. Therefore, a descending pattern is displayed from the east to the west. As time goes by, the extent of clustering could become more prominent, accompanied by an increasing spatial cluster of high values and a decreasing spatial cluster of low values. Accordingly, China needs to improve its energy consumption efficiency further and promote sustainable energy transformations.

Description: Lean-burn natural gas engines can be used to reduce exhaust emissions significantly. However, as the mixture is leaned out, the occurrence of extinction and incomplete combustion increases, resulting in poor performance and stability, as well as elevated levels of unburned hydrocarbon (UHC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions. The partially stratified charge (PSC) method can be used to mitigate these issues, while extending the lean misfire limit (LML) beyond its equivalent, homogeneous level. In this chapter, the PSC ignition and combustion processes are examined following a comprehensive experimental and numerical approach. Experiments are conducted in an idealized PSC configuration, using a constant volume combustion chamber (CVCC), to identify the principle enabling mechanisms of the PSC methodology. Engine tests conducted in a single-cylinder research engine (SCRE) demonstrate the feasibility of various PSC implementations in improving performance and emission characteristics in real-world settings. Complementary numerical analyses for the CVCC are obtained through large eddy simulations (LES), while Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) simulations are conducted for SCRE with reduced chemical kinetics. The corresponding simulated results provide additional insights in characterizing the effect of fuel stratification on flame kernel maturation and flame propagation, the interplay between chemistry and turbulence at different overall air–fuel ratios, as well as formation of major pollutant species.

Description: In a decarbonised future electricity system, Europe will rely on fluctuating renewable sources, such as solar PV and wind power, to a much larger extent than today. This means that Europe as a whole and each individual country on the continent must increase the availability of flexibilityoptionsin order to balance the grid. Such flexibility options include dispatchable renewable sources (e.g. concentrating solar power (CSP)with thermal storage), electricity storage, anddemand-response. We start from the notion that the future does not happen, but it is madeby a series of policy decisions between now and then. If this is true, then the electricity system of 2050 is determined by the sum of all policy decisions affecting the power system – the policy pathway – in all legislations in Europeuntil 2050. In this report, we take the first steps towards identifying the potential future role for dispatchable renewables – specifically CSP with thermal storage – as a function of policy decisions that either increase the need for power system flexibility (e.g. fluctuating renewables) or provide flexibility (e.g. storage, dispatchable renewables, flexible demand). We draw on the energy transition logics framework developed by Foxon and colleagues. This framework poses that the space of possible energy transition pathways is a triangle with three distinct policy logicsin its corners: a state-centred logic, in which the central government leads or carries out the transition; a market-centred logic, in which the government sets the framework but leaves all other decisions to market actors; and a grassroots-centred logic, in which the transition is carried out locally with the resources available to each community. Any transition strategy will consist, in some constellation, of policies from these corner. We investigate policy strategies in France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Switzerland and of the European Union as a whole. For each case, we define one dominant pathway, consisting of currently valid, implemented policies of the current (or newly resigned) government. In addition, we identify up to three minority pathwaysfor each case, describing the energy policy visions and strategies of parties that are currently in opposition but could form a government in the future. For each case, we identify pathways representing each of the three logics, bothin narrative formand as a set of 41 quantitative variables affecting the need for and provision of power system flexibility. This report is a primary data source for the power system modelling in the MUSTEC project. This modelling will happen in 2019 and 2020, and will bring detailed, quantitiave insights of how the potential role for dispatchable renewables is affected by energy policy decisions. However,from the data we have derivedhere, we can draw a number of conclusions. We show that all countries and the EU as a whole seek to strongly decarbonise their power systems, as a key part of economy-wide decarbonisation efforts. Some countries have plans that would suffice to fulfil the European (Union and national) commitments under the Paris Agreement: net-zero emissions, mainly or exclusively based on renewables. We also show that all countries seek to vastly expand intermittent renewables, which will trigger a greatly increased need for flexibility. However, this is not reflected in the policies we analysed: no pathway, dominant or minority, is specific on how they want to provide flexibility, especially not at the scale and pace needed. This problem will be exacerbated as the climate targets are tightened and fossil fuels – first coal and lignite (mainly in the 2020s) and later gas power (especially in the 2040s) – are phased out: once this happens, the European power system(s) will lose much of its current flexibility, and unlessother, carbon-free flexibility options are expanded, it will be increasingly difficult to maintain power system stability.

Description: This report explores what a just and fair transition looks like in the four country cases of Germany, Poland, South Africa and Indonesia. It aims to understand enablers and barriers to economic restructuring in the energy sector and identify and compare measures that ensure a just socio-economic transition for the workers and local communities involved. We include the power sector in the analysis due to the interdependency with coal in these regions, and the overall implications for the energy transition. In each country, one region was used to exemplify their pathway to a low carbon society. Germany: Lausitz – brown coal mining and power generation Poland: Silesia – black coal mining and power generation South Africa: Mpumalanga – black coal mining and power generation Indonesia: East Kalimantan – coal mining and power generation The study draws on qualitative research through desktop research of current literature, studies and government and other reports, including a brief media analysis of the most recent developments, supplemented with expert interviews.

Description: This document fulfils RECIPES delivery 2.1, the literature research for the multi-case study analysis, and covers the theoretical component of criteria for multi-case study analysis. Those criteria are presented in delivery 2.2 as the comparative multiple-case design, which is the methodological framework developed in task 2.2. Thus deliveries 2.1 and 2.2 are tightly linked, and should be taken together as the overall case study framework for WP2. The comparative multiple-case design contains the practical methodological framework required by each partner to execute the case study analysis for task 2.3. Delivery 2.3 explains the case study selection process which was undertaken to arrive at the eight cases studies to be carried out in WP2.

Description: This policy brief provides concrete proposals for measures that could be financed from the price of fossil fuel emissions in the areas of electricity, heating and mobility.

Description: Identification of atmospheric aerosol types and characterization of absorbing aerosols, based on AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) data collected during 2013-2014 over two sites in Nepal: Lumbini in the northernmost part of central Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) and Kathmandu Valley in foothills of the central Himalayas, have been conducted in the present study. The relationship between four aerosol parameters; Extinction Angstrom Exponent (EAE), Absorption Angstrom Exponent (AAE), Single Scattering Albedo (SSA) and Real Refractive Index (RRI) was analyzed to study the aerosol types. This resulted in the identification of two types of aerosols concerning their origin: biomass burning and urban/industrial mix. Furthermore, to understand the absorbing aerosol types, the relationship between aerosol size parameters; Fine Mode Fraction (FMF) and Angstrom Exponent (AE), and aerosol absorption characteristics; SSA and AAE were investigated. In regards to the absorbing aerosol types, 'Mostly BC' was the dominant absorbing aerosol, over both sites, with comparatively negligible contribution from other absorbing aerosol types such as dust. The aerosol subtypes obtained from satellite-borne CALMS instrument supported the results derived from the AERONET data. The CALIPSO images also indicated that the aerosols over the foothills of the Himalayas could extend to the height of 〉 5 km above the ground, which could be transported towards the Himalayan and Tibetan Plateau (HTP) region with sensitive ecosystems. The multi-sites based study of long-term records is required to elucidate the nature and trends of aerosols in the HTP region and any perturbation to the atmospheric environment and other environments in this region.

Description: Tropospheric ozone (O3) is an important air pollutant that affects human health, ecosystems, and climate. The contributions of O3 precursor emissions from different geographical source regions to the O3 concentration can help to quantify the effects of local versus remotely transported precursors on the O3 concentration in a certain area. This study presents a “tagging” approach within the WRF-Chem model that attributes O3 concentration in several European receptor regions to nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from within and outside of Europe during April–September 2010. We also examine the contribution of these different precursor sources to various O3 metrics and their exceedance events. Firstly, we show that the spatial distributions of simulated monthly mean MDA8 from tagged O3 source regions and types for late spring, summer, and early autumn 2010 varies with season. For summer conditions, O3 production is dominated by national and intra-European sources, while in the late spring and early autumn intercontinental transported O3 is an important contributor to the total O3 concentration. We have also identified shipping activities in the Mediterranean Sea as an important source of O3 for the Mediterranean countries, as well as the main contributor to high modelled MDA8 O3 concentration in the Mediterranean Basin itself. Secondly, to have a better understanding of the origin of MDA8 O3 exceedances, we compare modelled and observed values of MDA8 O3 concentration in the Po Valley and Germany–Benelux receptor regions, revealing that the contribution from local sources is about 41 % and 38 % of modelled MDA8 O3 during the exceedance days, respectively. By examining the relative contributions of remote NOx sources to modelled and observed O3 exceedance events, we determine that model underrepresentation of long-range O3 transport could be contributing to a general underestimation of modelled O3 exceedance events in the Germany–Benelux receptor region. Thirdly, we quantify the impact of local vs. non-local NOx precursors on O3 production for each European receptor region using different O3 metrics. The comparison between mean, MDA8 and 95th percentile O3 metrics accentuates the importance of large contributions from locally emitted NOx precursors to the high end of the O3 distribution. When we compare the vegetation and health metrics, we notice that the SOMO35 and AOT40 indexes exhibit rather similar behaviour, while the W126 index accentuates the importance of local emissions. Overall, this study highlights the importance of a tagging approach to quantify the contribution of local and remote sources to the MDA8 O3 concentration during several periods as well to different O3 metrics. Moreover, this method could be applied to assess different mitigation options.

Description: The call for a kind of education which can contribute to a sustainable future has resulted in the “education for sustainable development” (ESD) campaign. What is implied here is that a sustainable future can be achieved if people are properly educated. ESD ignores the current, popular perception that the future is non-shapeable and determined regarding sustainability issues; ESD presupposes a necessary understanding of a future that can be formed. The logic of standard education supports the perception of a future non-shapeable through the promotion of competencies designed for flexibility. Nevertheless both systems still conceive of education mainly as training, closing down the future. In this contribution, I argue that ESD needs to take current educational systems and today’s society with their non-sustainable future-building practices into account, because otherwise ESD would not make any difference to the educational and societal status quo. My main objective is to show that education must be thought of as something other than just training: considering education predominantly as subjectification holds the possibility for open and alternative futures. In this article, I discuss the potentials of this understanding (and the notion of an open future) for education with a view to sustainability. I explicitly address an interdisciplinary audience with the aim of raising awareness that education is more than training.

Description: Because solar and wind resources are available throughout Europe, a transition to an electricity system based on renewables could simultaneously be a transition to an autarkic one. We investigate to which extent electricity autarky on different levels is possible in Europe, from the continental, to the national, regional, and municipal levels, assuming that electricity autarky is only possible when the technical potential of renewable electricity exceeds local demand. We determine the technical potential of roof-mounted and open field photovoltaics, as well as on- and offshore wind turbines through an analysis of surface eligibility, considering land cover, settlements, elevation, and protected areas as determinants of eligibility for renewable electricity generation. In line with previous analyses we find that the technical-social potential of renewable electricity is greater than demand on the European and national levels. For subnational autarky, the situation is different: here, demand exceeds potential in several regions, an effect that is stronger the higher population density is. To reach electricity autarky below the national level, regions would need to use very large fractions or all of their non-built-up land for renewable electricity generation. Subnational autarky requires electricity generation to be in close proximity to demand and thus increases the pressure on non-built-up land especially in densely populated dense regions where pressure is already high. Our findings show that electricity autarky below the national level is often not possible in densely populated areas in Europe.

Description: The successful adoption and rapid entry into force of the Paris Agreement has been hailed as a milestone for global climate governance. However, mitigation and adaptation efforts pursued under the treaty are unlikely to prevent harm resulting from residual climate impacts. Even after Paris, loss and damage from adverse climate impacts continues to be a hotly debated issue in the climate negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The article assesses the progress made on loss and damage under the UNFCCC, including developments in the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) and the Paris rulebook. It further considers approaches to address loss and damage outside the UNFCCC, including climate litigation and insurance, and assesses their potential to strengthen the work of the WIM. The article then charts possible future directions for the UNFCCC response to loss and damage and provides timely recommendations for the review of the WIM at COP 25.

Description: While most OECD countries have been rather successful in reducing risks to human lives, health, and the quality of the environment, the record for new global risks such as climate change, pandemics, financial breakdowns, and social inequality is much less convincing. This is the challenge of systemic risks. Since the global financial crisis, it has received rapidly growing attention. However, considerable conceptual confusion mars research on and practical responses to this challenge. We undertake an effort of conceptual clarification, starting with the paradigmatic example of the financial crisis. This leads to a view of global systems as involving an interplay between micro- and macrodynamics internal to the system, with the system simultaneously interacting with its environment. Such dynamics typically show periods of stability, punctuated by situations opening up several possible futures. Alternative global futures, like other prospects, constitute risks for an agent if she considers some of these futures as less desirable than others. Agents may have lexicographic preferences over futures they would like to avoid, so as to consider some futures as just undesirable, but others as catastrophic. If an agent expects some of the relevant futures at a bifurcation point of a global system to be catastrophic in this sense, they are faced with a systemic risk.

Description: The primary aim of the report – Ecological Baselines of the Southeast Atlantic and Southeast Pacific - Status of Marine Biodiversity and Anthropogenic Pressures in Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction – is to provide decision makers with relevant and useful information on the current status of the marine environment in areas beyond national jurisdiction (ABNJ), both in the Southeast Pacific and the Southeast Atlantic, as well as highlight key pressures placed upon it by human activities. Such information is intended to support decision makers with improved understanding of the functioning and importance of ecological features of ABNJ and their contribution to global human wellbeing.

Description: Energy access is essential for economic and human development and is an important driver for the progress of India. Access to modern forms of energy, especially electricity, becomes even more important for the socio-economic development of rural areas (which lag behind urban areas in terms of infrastructure). “Full electrification” to achieve social and economic development goals (and SDGs) in India requires 24/7 electricity access for every household, family and local enterprise, even in rural communities. To achieve this goal, successive Indian governments have focussed on providing access by extending the centralised grid while still trying to incentivise the use of decentralised off-grid solutions through renewable energy sources such as solar and biomass. Although a considerable number of villages and households have gained access to the grid, the reliability and quality of power supply still remain a growing challenge for rural consumers. Mini grids have thus emerged as pivotal in providing ancillary services to the grid and improving the level of services to last-mile consumers. To this end, a number of private companies have emerged, setting up mini-grids in unconnected villages in order to bridge this electrification gap and drive economic development around rural clusters. Nonetheless, investment in renewable-powered minigrids in India still lags behind, partly because of a lack of replicable and sustainable models in the face of subsidised grid-electricity tariffs that make alternative solutions cost uncompetitive. This study assesses the viability of renewable-energypowered mini-grids to both drive and support economic growth in India from the perspective of augmenting the current electrification of rural areas. This is carried out in the context of the COBENEFITS project with the aim of assessing the range of additional benefits1 resulting from a low-carbon energy transition in India. For renewableenergy-powered mini-grids to thrive alongside the conventional grid in a sustainable manner, mini-grids will have to match the grid – in terms of cost-competitiveness, capacity and affordability – while remaining profitable and viable. The study employs a dual approach comprising a qualitative “on the ground” assessment of the social benefits in three rural communities in India, combined with a techno-economic analysis to determine the factors that affect the economies of scale of mini-grids (specifically solar-powered mini-grids) and their suitability for supporting socio-economic development in rural areas of India. This approach is chosen to ensure transferability of the case study findings obtained for rural India. Data and test variables used in this study are India-specific and are drawn from detailed stakeholder engagements, and are in alignment with local conditions (at the time of compiling this report). This study focuses strictly on solar-powered-mini-grids in India to represent the term “mini-grids” within the Indian context.

Description: The 2015 agreement setting forth the UN Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is an important achievement that poses complex and demanding challenges. To adequately address them, judgments must determine contextually and culturally appropriate balances between independently valuable, but often conflicting targets (Singh et al. 2018). Simultaneously, a global coherence across local and regional actions must be ensured, so that local efforts do not destructively interfere with each other, nor overstep limitations in the resources of the planet (Randers et al. 2018). The Global Sustainability Strategy Forum (GSSF) responds to the fact that, after some 40 years sustainability science has produced many insights, but has not really affected our collective behavior with respect to its impact on the environment. Generally, that is deemed to be the result of lack of communication between scientists and the outside world. But might it be that the present practice of science is in itself deficient in producing results that are useful to implement the changes called for? The Forum was established in 2018 with funding from the VW Foundation to identify and address sustainability challenges at the global to regional scales by bringing together, in week-long work-shops, renowned experts in sustainable development and thought leaders in business, government, and civil society from around the world. Under the patronage of Prof. Dr Rita Süssmuth, former President of the German Bundestag, the first Forum was coordinated by Solène Droy with assistance from Paul Skaloud. Moderated by Ilan Chabay (IASS), Sander van der Leeuw (Arizona State University), Ortwin Renn (IASS), 14 panelists convened in Potsdam (Germany) 4-8 March 2019. Eight main lessons emerged from in-depth discussions and reflections towards the end of the forum. They capture some of the main approaches deemed as necessary for science and society to counter patterns and trends of unsustainability and are outlined in this paper. The results were subsequently discussed at the Inland Department of the Office of the German Federal President, addressing fundamental challenges rarely discussed directly at such a high political level. Discussion ranged from tensions between the complexity of the issues and the urgency of the challenges, such as societal acceptance of change, and on the emerging role for compelling plausible visions to inspire and guide sustainability transformation. The expert panel will expand to include decision-makers from business, politics, and civil society to consider strategies for implementation within regional and sectoral contexts. The approach the GSSF develops draws upon indicators and other information to create evidence-informed expert judgments on strategies for implementation of socially just transitions toward sustainable futures at multiple spatial and temporal scales. Of course, the changes required include strengthening and expanding dialogues between scientists, policy makers, business, and civil society; unbiased consideration of diverse sources of knowledge; the substantial refocus of education in an effort to make the central ideas accessible across all ages and segments of society. But that is not enough – the focus of sustainability science itself must be changed to deal with the core issues regarding our current societies’ impact on the environment.

Description: Household energy consumption has been a major contributor to the increase in global energy demand and carbon emission, and the household sector has also become one of the most crucial factors shaping the management of developments towards sustainability. However, there is still a knowledge gap regarding the household energy consumption in China. Due to the vast territory and the differences among regional conditions, it is critical to conduct a systemic review to illustrate the overall situation as well as the detailed mechanisms of the household energy consumption in China. By employing both qualitative and quantitative methods, two key features of the household energy consumption in China are presented; one is regarding the total amount and the structure of the household energy consumption, and the second is the significant urban-rural gap. The driving forces are investigated from the perspective of external determinants and internal determinants, which consist of seven key factors; finally, the transition roadmap towards the sustainable energy system for the household level are presented based on the text analysis from the four key policy documents. Weaknesses in the current research on the energy geography of household level also exist, such as the lack of single factor research and the lack of integration and comprehensive analysis. Therefore, future studies need to strengthen the research of regional household energy consumption structure, spatial-temporal process, and its motivation mechanism, and sustainable development of energy, so as to explore space-social structure of household energy consumption and spatial-temporal interaction.

Description: This brochure presents the main findings of the second edition of the Social Sustainability Barometer for the German Energiewende. They are based on two internet-based, population-representative household surveys (forsa.omninet household panel), which were conducted in the summer of 2017 and 2018 in cooperation with the German Institute for Economic Research. Now in its second iteration, this brochure can for the first time track changes in attitudes to the Energiewende and its implementation since the publication of the first Barometer in 2017. The annual Social Sustainability Barometer for the German Energiewende is an empirical database intended to monitor developments in the social dimensions of sustainability in selected key areas as accurately as possible. How does the German population view the Energiewende and the current implementation process? What do they expect from a just Energiewende? To what extent do they feel affected by the Energiewende? And to what degree are they willing to participate in it?

Description: Organic atmospheric aerosols in the Hindu Kush–Himalayas–Tibetan Plateau region are still poorly characterized. To better understand the chemical characteristics and sources of organic aerosols in the foothill region of the central Himalaya, the atmospheric aerosol samples were collected in Bode, a suburban site of the Kathmandu Valley (KV) over a 1-year period from April 2013 to April 2014. Various molecular tracers from specific sources of primary organic aerosols (POAs) and secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) were determined. Tracer-based estimation methods were employed to apportion contributions from each source. The concentrations of organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) increased during winter with a maximum monthly average in January. Levoglucosan (a molecular tracer for biomass burning, BB) was observed as the dominant species among all the analyzed organic tracers and its annual average concentration was 788±685 ng m−3 (ranging from 58.8 to 3079 ng m−3). Isoprene-SOA (I-SOA) represented a high concentration among biogenic-SOA tracers. For the seasonality, anhydrosugars, phenolic compounds, resin acid, and aromatic SOA tracer showed similar seasonal variations with OC and EC while monosaccharides, sugar alcohols, and I-SOA tracers showed lower levels during winter. BB contributed a significant fraction to OC, averaging 24.9 %±10.4 % during the whole year, and up to 36.3 %±10.4 % in the post-monsoon season. On an annual average basis, anthropogenic toluene-derived secondary OC accounted for 8.8 % and biogenic secondary OC contributed 6.2 % to total OC. The annual contribution of fungal spores to OC was 3.2 % with a maximum during the monsoon season (5.9 %). For plant debris, it accounted for 1.4 % of OC during the monsoon. Therefore, OC is mainly associated with BB and other anthropogenic activity in the KV. Our findings are conducive to designing effective measures to mitigate the heavy air pollution and its impacts in the KV and surrounding area.

Description: Air pollution is a global challenge causing millions of premature deaths annually. This is limited not only to developing, but also developed nations, with cities in particular struggling to meet air quality limit values to adequately protect human health. Total exposure to air pollution is often disproportionately affected by the relatively short amount of time spent commuting or in the proximity of traffic. In this exploratory work, we conducted measurements of particle number concentrations using a DiscMini by bicycle. Eighteen tracks with accompanying video footage were analyzed and a suite of factors classified and quantified that influence exposure to air pollution. A method was developed to account for variations in the ambient average concentrations per trip that allowed for comparison across all tracks. Large differences in ultra-localized air pollution levels were identified and quantified for factors such as street type, environmental surroundings, and vehicle type. The occurrence of one or more non-passenger car vehicles, including e.g., buses, mopeds, or trucks, result in an increase in particulate concentrations of 30% to 40% relative to the average ambient level. High traffic situations, such as traffic jams or cars waiting at traffic lights, result in increased particulate concentrations (+47% and +35%, respectively). Cycling in residential neighborhoods decreased particulate number concentrations by 17% relative to the ambient average level, and by 22% when cycling through green spaces or parks. Such information is valuable for citizens who may want to reduce their air pollution exposure when moving through a city, but also for policy makers and urban planners who make or influence infrastructure decisions, to be able to reduce exposure and better protect human health, while progress is made to reduce air pollution levels overall.

Description: This report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) explores the prospects for renewables to enhance national economies and strengthen the SEE energy mix. It analyses the current energy landscape, the potential and costs for scaling up renewables, the policy frameworks and investments required, and the expected socio-economic impact of transforming the region's energy system.

Description: A major hurdle for implementing CCU technologies is often their economic viability as well as the social acceptance for using such technologies. Therefore, assessments regarding the economic and social impacts of CCU technologies are needed. Being among the biggest emitters of anthropogenic CO2, the cement industry requires affordable pathways towards a sustainable future. CCU technologies could potentially contribute to this direction. A technological concept developed in this field is the so called "accelerated carbonation" process. Hereby, CO2 is reacted with activated minerals to form carbonates. The carbonates could potentially be used for multiple purposes, such as fillers or cement additives or for land reclamation projects. Some policy advice reports use the accelerated carbonation process as a positive example for the utilization of CO2 as a feedstock, because unlike most other CCU concepts, the carbonation reaction is energetically favorable. Although the concept is not new, the accelerated carbonation routes lack detailed and comparable economic assessments in literature. In this contribution, economic assessments of several carbonation routes will be presented, uncovering the advantages of certain routes towards an economically viable implementation. Moreover, the evaluation of the circumstances under which these novel technologies become economically feasible as well as the analysis of key factors which can be influenced in order to promote economic feasibility will be investigated. Understanding the economics of accelerated carbonation routes is essential for their further development and deployment in the context of broader sustainability strategies.

Description: The data collection for this version of CSP guru has been conducted by Johan Lilliestam and Richard Thonig in the first half of 2019. It is based on the May 2018 version by Johan Lilliestam, Mercè Labordena, Lana Ollier and Stefan Pfenninger. The data reflects the situation of CSP projects and industry on January first of 2019.

Description: The paper provides an overview of an airborne measurement campaign with a microlight aircraft over the Pokhara Valley region, Nepal, a metropolitan region in the central Himalayan foothills. This is the first aerial measurement in the central Himalayan foothill region, one of the polluted but relatively poorly sampled regions of the world. Conducted in two phases (in May 2016 and December 2016–January 2017), the goal of the overall campaign was to quantify the vertical distribution of aerosols over a polluted mountain valley in the Himalayan foothills, as well as to investigate the extent of regional transport of emissions into the Himalayas. This paper summarizes results from the first phase where test flights were conducted in May 2016 (pre-monsoon), with the objective of demonstrating the potential of airborne measurements in the region using a portable instrument package (size with housing case: 0.45 m × 0.25 m × 0.25 m, 15 kg) onboard an ultralight aircraft (IKARUS-C42). A total of five sampling test flights were conducted (each lasting for 1–1.5 h) in the Pokhara Valley to characterize vertical profiles of aerosol properties such as aerosol number and size distribution (0.3–2 µm), total particle concentration (〉14 nm), aerosol absorption (370–950 nm), black carbon (BC), and meteorological variables. Although some interesting observations were made during the test flight, the study is limited to a few days (and only a few hours of flight in total) and thus the analysis presented may not represent the entire pollution–meteorology interaction found in the Pokhara Valley. The vertical profiles of aerosol species showed decreasing concentrations with altitude (815 to 4500 m a.s.l.); a steep concentration gradient below 2000 m a.s.l. in the morning; and mixed profiles (up to ca. 4000 m a.s.l.) in the afternoon. The near-surface (〈1000 m a.s.l.) BC concentrations observed in the Pokhara Valley were much lower than pre-monsoon BC concentrations in the Kathmandu Valley, and similar in range to Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) sites such as Kanpur in India. The sampling test flight also detected an elevated polluted aerosol layer (around 3000 m a.s.l.) over the Pokhara Valley, which could be associated with the regional transport. The total aerosol and black carbon concentration in the polluted layer was comparable with the near-surface values. The elevated polluted layer was also characterized by a high aerosol extinction coefficient (at 550 nm) and was identified as smoke and a polluted dust layer. The observed shift in the westerlies (at 20–30∘ N) entering Nepal during the test flight period could be an important factor for the presence of elevated polluted layers in the Pokhara Valley.

Description: On April 10th and 11th of 2019, a group of about 100 academics, industry experts, government officials, policymakers, and nonprofit representatives gathered at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor to participate in a workshop focused on topics related to the creation of streamlined life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic assessment (TEA) guidelines for emerging carbon dioxide and monoxide (‘carbon’ in the following) capture and utilization (CCU) technologies. This report summarizes the key takeaways from this workshop. Carbon utilization differs from mere sequestration of carbon in geologic reservoirs as utilization yields a product with a level of economic value. This feature will ideally allow CCU technologies to be scaled quickly through commercialization. Scaling will make them an important component in the portfolio of tactics in the pursuit to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Utilization is also representative of a circular economy and, depending on the process, may offer additional environmental benefits. CCU technologies are generally early in development and often have low technology readiness levels (TRLs). Thus, customized LCA and TEA guidelines are needed to offer direction on assessing their viability with a reasonable degree of certainty. Such guidelines are of course still required for technologies at all TRLs. The Global CO2 Initiative has developed an initial version of LCA and TEA guidelines specifically for use in evaluating CCU technologies. The participants find the LCA guidelines consistent with those produced by the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) and the TEA guidelines consistent with those developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). However, they suggest additional work during the next few years as part of the “CO2nsistent” project – which is funded by the Global CO2 Initiative and EIT Climate-KIC – to create guidelines that will be more relevant to, and more comprehensible by, non-technical stakeholders than the existing guidelines while still fully addressing system boundaries and benchmark product comparison. This focus on clear communication of LCA and TEA results to audiences made up of non-technical stakeholders is of paramount importance, as these stakeholders are often involved in downstream decision-making processes about project investment.

Description: This paper investigates the interplay between the German incentive regulation and renewable capacity integration. A comprehensive review of the current incentive regulation scheme and its 2016 amendment is first presented. Then, results of ten representative interviews with large-scale distribution system operators are analyzed. Firstly, all necessary grid integration measures could so far be implemented. Secondly, creating proper incentives for intelligent operating equipment to partly substitute conventional grid expansion remains a challenge. Thirdly, the new curtailment regulation of 2016 is welcome, but will not become a substitute for grid expansion as long as renewable integration rates are high. Moreover, the discussions on further improvements to the incentive regulation scheme reveal a distribution conflict between grid operators and grid users.

Description: There are growing concerns of a globally uneven energy transition. Due to the uneven distribution of global technology and finance flows, developing countries have been particularly vocal about the importance of access to low-carbon technology as a precondition to sustainable development and the resolution of pressing energy access challenges.

Description: The objective of this work is to present a high-resolution, urban scale large-eddy simulation (LES) frameworkfor modelling dispersion and chemical transformation of nitrogen oxides (NOx=NO + NO2) from urban traffic. The control-volume based computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation platform OpenFOAM has been adopted for LES transport and reactional modelling. A rudimentary chemical kinetic mechanism for NOx and tropospheric ozone (O3) has been introduced as a non-limiting implementation. All urban structures are fully resolved in the solution domain, with dynamic grid refinement allowing local spatial resolutions to reach 10 m and below. A k-way Boolean operation and a reduced convolution Minkowski sum algorithm areused to automate the conversion of available geographical data, such as two-dimensional urban footprints and object heights, into three-dimensional geometrical entities. Said methodology is applied to urban regions in the City of Berlin of up to 2 km × 2km around active roadside air quality measurement stations from the BLUME(Berliner Luftgütemessnetz) network. Particular emphasis is placed on the period in July 2014, where emission observations from measurement campaign and WRF regional model simulations are available.

Description: Presenting a profound and far-reaching analysis of economic, ecological, social, cultural and political developments of contemporary capitalism, this book draws on the work of Karl Polanyi, and re-reads it for our times. The renowned authors offer key insights to current changes in the relations between the economy, politics and society, and their ecological and social effects. They explore the commodification of land, labour, money, care and knowledge, and analyse labour and social movements, right-wing populism and religious fundamentalism. Bringing together insights from different parts of the world and from historical, theoretical and empirical research, the book sheds light on important facets of the crisis-driven transformation of contemporary capitalism. Social and political science scholars will greatly benefit from this timely analysis of contemporary capitalism. Those researching economic history and the impact of Polanyi’s work on the analysis of the modern society will also find this a useful read.

Description: This study examines how increased deployment of renewable energy in Turkey can provide co-benefits for job creation and meeting future skills requirements. The research is carried out in the context of the COBENEFITS project, which assesses a range of additional co-benefits of renewable energy in developing countries, besides reducing energy sector greenhouse gas emissions, when compared to conventional energy systems. The study also provides initial insights on the estimated occupational distribution, thus predicting the changes and employment opportunities available to Turkey in its solar and wind sectors. The study methodology focused firstly on defining value chains for the solar and wind energy sectors in Turkey. This was done using licence and pre-licence information from the Energy Market Regulatory Authority and a unique administrative micro dataset (EIS) that includes all registered firms in Turkey and their employees registered with the Social Security Institution (SGK). Secondly, coefficients for the current ratio of employment per megawatt (MW) in the solar and wind sectors were calculated. Finally, projections of employment increases and skills requirements were estimated according to four scenarios for increased renewable energy (RE) capacity. The results show that increased employment is possible through renewables.

Description: Reducing CO2 emissions through a shift from coal to natural gas power plants is a key strategy to support pathways for climate stabilization. However, methane leakage in the natural gas supply chain and emissions of a variety of climate forcers call the net benefits of this transition into question. Here, we integrated a life cycle inventory model with multiple global and regional emission metrics and investigated the impacts of representative coal and gas power plants in China, Germany, India and the United States. We found that the coal-to-gas shift is consistent with climate stabilization objectives for the next 50-100 years. Our finding is robust under a range of leakage rates and uncertainties in emissions data and metrics. It becomes conditional to the leakage rate in some locations only if we employ a set of metrics that essentially focus on short-term effects. Our case for the coal-to-gas shift is stronger than previously found, reinforcing the support for coal phase-out.

Description: Marine justice proves narratively infertile when it comes to the deep sea. An idea of how to successfully bundle global justice and earth system protection––the central global sustainability formula––into narratives is especially hard to come up with in the case of the remote ocean floor. The case is not as special as it seems though. Rather it exemplifies general challenges experienced by sustainability (i.e., global and intergenerational justice) narratives with regard to: (1) The per definition ‘localist’ character of successful story-telling, (2) Their inherent value tension between innovation and conservation (3) The anthropocentric nature of any conventional narrative dynamics (Ghosh, 2016).

Description: Cyclic volatile methyl siloxanes (cVMS) are high-production chemicals present in many personal care products. They are volatile, hydrophobic, and relatively long-lived due to slow oxidation kinetics. Evidence from chamber and ambient studies indicates that oxidation products may be found in the condensed aerosol phase. In this work, we use an oxidation flow reactor to produce ∼100 µg m−3 of organosilicon aerosol from OH oxidation of decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) with aerosol mass fractions (i.e., yields) of 0.2–0.5. The aerosols were assessed for concentration, size distribution, morphology, sensitivity to seed aerosol, hygroscopicity, volatility and chemical composition through a combination of aerosol size distribution measurement, tandem differential mobility analysis, and electron microscopy. Similar aerosols were produced when vapor from solid antiperspirant was used as the reaction precursor. Aerosol yield was sensitive to chamber OH and to seed aerosol, suggesting sensitivity of lower-volatility species and recovered yields to oxidation conditions and chamber operation. The D5 oxidation aerosol products were relatively non-hygroscopic, with an average hygroscopicity kappa of ∼0.01, and nearly non-volatile up to 190 ∘C temperature. Parameters for exploratory treatment as a semi-volatile organic aerosol in atmospheric models are provided.

Description: Human populations have relied on the oceans for centuries for food supply, transportation, security, oil and gas resources, and many other reasons. The growing prospects of the oceans, such as access to marine genetic resources and seabed minerals, to generate renewable energy and as a potentially enhanced carbon sink, are contributing to increased interests to control and exploit the seas. At the same time, human pressure on the oceans, both from land- and atmospheric-based sources and at sea, as well as from climate change, has led to unprecedented levels of stress on the oceans. The concept of ocean governance has developed as a response to this. This chapter explores ocean governance from the interdisciplinary perspectives of law and human geography. We trace the development of ocean governance from first practices and legal concepts up to the emergence of contemporary ocean governance in recent decades and explore how it departs from traditional practices. Zonal and sectoral approaches, as well as their underlying norms, are discussed. We then take a more critical stance to shed light on the role neoliberalism plays in the forming of ocean governance and the effects this paradigm can have on governance outcomes. The cases of fisheries management and ocean grabbing illustrate some possible mechanisms and effects. In addition, the role of communities and indigenous people in ocean governance is discussed. Finally, the chapter addresses the shared or common concern surrounding the degradation of the marine environment, and the need for global and interdisciplinary cooperation in governing the oceans for mutual benefit.

Description: The relationship between many G20 governments and civil society organizations (CSOs) has become more complex and often contested. This policy brief first focuses on three key problems indicative of this strained relationship: the shrinking domestic and international space for civil society activities; the widespread policy neglect of civil society; and the emergence of new regulatory voids. In essence, governments, international agencies and CSOs have to find more optimal modes of engagement at national and international levels. Next, as an initial step to explore ways and means for improving the relationship between civil society and G20 governments, the brief proposes the establishment of an international task force of independent experts.

Description: With the emergence in the 1960s of international interest in the exploitation of deep-sea mineral resources, a majority of the actors involved at the time quickly established a position strongly oriented towards global justice with regard to the distribution of possible profits from this novel activity. The idea that people in the developing countries of the global South, in particular, should benefit from the treasures from the ocean floor finally found its way into the International Convention on the Law of the Sea in the form of the "Common Heritage of Mankind" principle. Current discussions on the subject of deep-sea mining (DSM) also point to areas of conflict which, at least in theory, are closely linked to central issues of environmental justice. Negotiations currently underway at the International Seabed Authority on the regulation of DSM, for example, are being held on both the fair distribution of costs and risks and the fair access to and distribution of possible profits from mining. In this context, questions of procedural justice also arise time and again. Our paper examines the question to what extent and in what way debates on justice and other value references find their way into broader public discourse on DSM. On the basis of a content analysis of documents from the fields of media, business, civil society, science and politics, we draw a picture of dominant discursive positions and their narrative structures. Working with Greimas's actantial model and Burke's dramatistic pentad, we pay particular attention to value references through acts and goals described in the narratives, i.e., the qualities and motives assigned to protagonists and their actions. As a result, we find that the discussion on global justice, which was originally so central in the DSM discourse, hardly plays a noteworthy role today. Instead, both supporters and opponents of technical exploitation of the deep sea are far more likely to find references to various motives for protection. The respective stories can be read as "narratives of fear." We discuss possible reasons that inhibit a global justice framing for DSM. We also discuss to what extent our observations apply to this singular case only and to what extent they share fundamental features with other realms where it is difficult to create effective narratives that link global sustainability scenarios with justice.

Description: Human and contextual factors are crucial in achieving universal access to appropriate, affordable and effective clean cooking energy services.

Description: The emerging climate engineering (CE) debate will be fed by scientific information–and likely by misinformation as well. The first intense, international studies of any type of CE began in the early 1990s with ocean iron fertilisation, a method associated with the carbon dioxide removal branch of CE techniques. The ocean fertilisation experiments and analyses led to discussions by scientists and stakeholders about not only the environmental advantages and disadvantages but also political and ethical concerns. While a major part of the future evolution of CE research will extend on some of the trajectories outlined above, especially the expansion of community-wide multi-model studies, a highly uncertain direction of development involves future field testing of CE. Many CE studies have already been published in the separate disciplines, with only a few interdisciplinary studies so far, and even less trans-disciplinary work.

Description: EU regulations explicitly preclude recirculation aquaculture systems (RAS) for aquaculture grow-out from organic certification because they are not close enough to nature (Regulation (EEC) No. 710/2009). Meanwhile, according to another EU regulation, one criterion for organic food production is its contribution to sustainable development (Regulation (EEC) No. 834/2007). Against this background, one might argue that in spite of their distance to nature RAS are innovative solutions to sustainability issues in food production. The paper will deal with the claim that RAS for aquaculture could be one innovative solution to sustainability issues. In this respect, the picture is ambivalent. In the past, the organic movement (OM) has searched for innovative alternatives to industrial forms of agriculture and food production that are non-sustainable. Hence, the majority of the OM does not feel fit to support industrial RAS, even though one might argue that these systems comply with many of the European OM’s founding principles. While there are potential positive effects for a sustainable development, we might still regard these systems as techno-scientific solutions to social problems. This paper discusses innovation narratives related to RAS from the perspective of post-normal innovation critique. It first presents potential contribution to a more sustainable food sector. It then contrasts these arguments within critical assessments of innovation narratives for sustainable development. Finally, the paper concludes by discussing moral challenges of RAS for the OM’s self-conception.

Description: The building sector is in urgent need of sustainable concepts, being among the biggest emitters of CO2. In particular, the global cement industry is responsible for 8% of the annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The carbonation of minerals with CO2 has attracted interest in research, industry as well as the interest of policy-makers as a promising CCU technology because it could provide a contribution to reducing the carbon footprint of the cement industry. In the mineralisation process, CO2 is reacted with selected minerals or certain types of industrial wastes to form a solid carbonate, resulting in an effectively permanent means of sequestering CO2. This process can be carried out along multiple steps of the value chain and can lead to saleable products for the building industry, such as cementitious products, building aggregates and concrete ("concrete curing"). In order to better understand why - despite technological feasibility - only a few technologies have reached the commercialisation stage yet, political framework conditions that have an impact on CO2 mineralisation are identified in this contribution. The goal of this contribution is to identify policies and measures, by means of a meta-analysis of recent national, European and US policy reports, which potentially represent barriers respectively incentives for the development and deployment of CO2 mineralisation technologies.

Description: Climate engineering is a novel enterprise embedded in the complex and dynamic landscape of natural and human systems. This encompasses the entirety of the biosphere and climate system, and an evolving spectrum of states, organisations, and communities, with all of their constituent values, agendas, actions, and effects. Insight into the risks and uncertainties most relevant to decision-making in climate engineering could be gained from observing events that have not happened yet. Game theory and economic modelling, in gauging future strategic actions in climate engineering, assume that actors act upon probabilistic calculations of self-interest. This chapter discusses a pair of scenario-based foresight projects in climate engineering, in order to demonstrate some aspects of foresight in action. In terms of designing policy-oriented outputs, the earlier Yale workshop was designed to be a standalone exercise that hoped to serve as a pilot project for the use of foresight amongst academics and policymakers in climate engineering.

Description: Arctic stakeholders are faced with uncertainty as to the future development of social, political, economic, and environmental conditions, not least due to the ongoing transformations inflicted by climate change. In Blue-Action, the case study focusing on “Yamal 2040: Scenarios for the Russian Arctic” (CS5) has employed a specific co-design and engagement methodology to support stakeholders of one particular region in the Arctic, the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (YNAO) in Russia, to respond to this situation of general uncertainty, to develop forward-looking scenarios to better understand the risks and opportunities associated with future transformations in the Arctic. This methodology is the Foresight Exercise. The Foresight Exercise was conducted in the form of a series of three international workshops over 10 months between late 2017 and late 2018. The result thereof were three scenarios for the possible futures of the YNAO, which were co‐designed by stakeholders participating in the workshops and representing environmental NGOs, indigenous peoples’ organisations, business, media, policy‐makers, representatives oflocal communities, and scientists from the natural and social sciences. Results of the workshops were presented in the Blue‐Action deliverables D5.20, D5.21, and D5.22. This present deliverable takes stock of the Foresight Exercise from the perspective of the stakeholder engagement methodology.

Description: Evaluation research can provide policy advice on the basis of evidence that it is increasingly expected to rely upon. At the same time, policy advice itself can take on the role of the evaluandum and become the very object of evaluation. Both these dimensions of the evaluation-advice interface merit attention. However, while there are criteria for the evaluation of policy advice, the use of evaluation for policy advice remains a black box, as this is part of less formal communication and consultation. This notwithstanding, this article will offer an introduction to the various reasons for – as well as various contexts of – evaluation’s increasing importance in policy advice.

Description: Cross-city convergence in green space coverage could contribute to our understanding of the law of motion of distribution dynamics of environmental sustainability across cities and provide crucial information for designing policies regarding complex processes relating to human–environment interactions in an urban system. The relationship between socioeconomic factors and green space coverage has been widely discussed, but research on the distribution dynamics of green space coverage across cities is limited. This paper explored the pattern of convergence in green space coverage of a group of 285 Chinese cities over the period of 2002–2012 by using hybrid approaches, including the nonparametric estimation technique, unconditional β-convergence model, and conditional β-convergence model. The results indicated that the green space coverage level in most cities has been substantially improved; the spatial disparity across Chinese cities has shrunk, and the level of green space coverage has converged to 104% of the average level. The β-convergence estimation results demonstrate the existence of unconditional and conditional convergence in green space coverage among Chinese cities, which indicates that cities with a low initial level of green space coverage grow faster than those with an initial high level. Faster sprawling, more compact and wealthier cities are likely to converge to a higher level of green space coverage. Expansion of the population and spatial scale of cities contributes to increasing green space coverage, sprawling of built-up area leads to a decrease of the green space coverage, and economic growth has little impact on green space coverage.

Description: A major hurdle for implementing CCU technologies is often their economic viability as well as the social acceptance for using such technologies. Therefore, assessments regarding the economic and social impacts of CCU technologies are needed. Being among the biggest emitters of anthropogenic CO2, the cement industry requires affordable pathways towards a sustainable future. CCU technologies could potentially contribute to this direction. A technological concept developed in this field is the so called "accelerated carbonation" process. Hereby, CO2 is reacted with activated minerals to form carbonates. The carbonates could potentially be used for multiple purposes, such as fillers or cement additives or for land reclamation projects. Some policy advice reports use the accelerated carbonation process as a positive example for the utilization of CO2 as a feedstock, because unlike most other CCU concepts, the carbonation reaction is energetically favorable. Although the concept is not new, the accelerated carbonation routes lack detailed and comparable economic assessments in literature. In this contribution, economic assessments of several carbonation routes will be presented, uncovering the advantages of certain routes towards an economically viable implementation. Moreover, the evaluation of the circumstances under which these novel technologies become economically feasible as well as the analysis of key factors which can be influenced in order to promote economic feasibility will be investigated. Understanding the economics of accelerated carbonation routes is essential for their further development and deployment in the context of broader sustainability strategies.

Description: On 27 January 2019, the research group CO2 Utilisation Strategies and Society at the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) hosted the International Round Table “Contextualising Carbon Dioxide Utilisation – International Policy Perspectives on CCU Technologies”. The Round Table on CO2 Utilisation is a series of events, initiated, organised by and held at the IASS in Pots-dam. First started in 2014, it is now an established series that provides an occasion for the profes-sional community involved with the development of CCU technologies to debate and engage with a broad range of societal stakeholders. Framed by two presentations about the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) and CCU technologies' possible contribution to their delivery, the one-day event consisted of three ses-sions. The sessions were structured according to global regions and focused first on selected coun-tries in Europe (Finland, France, Germany), then on overarching European perspectives and eventu-ally took on a non-European perspective with presentations from China and the United States. Actors in the field of CCU technologies as well as funding agencies and other organisations ascribe the potential to contribute to ecologic, environmental and societal objectives to CCU technologies. Such objectives may be part of the SDGs and other policy targets. Except for further technical de-velopment, the extent of this contribution largely depends on political support with regard to ecolog-ic aspects as well as economic incentives. In order to unfold their full sustainability potential, CCU technologies need a supportive regulatory and policy framework on a European and international level today, and require more tailored support in the future. On either level, specific risks need to be monitored and considered in policy decisions.

Description: South Africa’s renewable energy (RE) procurement policy is unique globally in its emphasis on providing benefits for communities in the vicinity of projects participating in the RE Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP). RE projects are primarily located in rural communities, frequently categorised as “marginalised communities”. The REIPPPP has created a legal framework to incentivise IPPs to channel benefits to communities near RE project sites through a range of means, including local employment quotas, community ownership in RE projects, as well as contributing a proportion of their revenue towards development spending, known as socio-economic development (SED) and enterprise development (ED) spend. This study assesses the SED and ED impacts of renewable energy deployment in marginalised communities in South Africa; this was carried out in the context of the COBENEFITS project with the aim of assessing the range of additional benefits2 resulting from a low-carbon energy transition in the country. It entails the assessment of selected socio-economic impacts, realised to date, in three REIPPPP project areas, along with projections and modelling the assessed impacts (up to 2030 for the medium term, and 2050 for the long term) across a range of power sector decarbonisation scenarios. Four scenarios for the future development of the electricity sector in South Africa were analysed: Council for Scientific and Industrial Research Least Cost planning scenario (CSIR_LC); Department of Environmental Affairs Rapid Decarbonisation scenario (DEA_RD); Integrated Resource Plan 2016 (IRP 2016); and Integrated Resource Plan Policy Adjusted scenario 2018 (IRP 2018). The COBENEFITS study also sought to provide insights on further improving the various benefits that should accrue to. The four scenarios considered two timelines consistent with the DOEs reporting of the draft IRP 2018: The short-term timeline up to the year 2030 which is based on the expected electricity generation mix to meet the rising demand in the country and which is aligned with the National Development Plan 2030. The long-term timeline considers the timeframe up to 2050, based on the electricity generation mix predicted to meet the projected growth in energy demand in the country within this timeframe. It also considers the predicted decommissioning timeline of coal power plants in the country by 2050. “Test case variables input parameters” stated in the draft IRP 2018 (for public comments) such as the RE annual limits were applied for the reference IRP 2018 scenario stated in this study.

Description: Air pollution is still largely unstudied in sub-Saharan Africa, resulting in a gap in scientific understanding of emissions, atmospheric processes, and impacts of air pollutants in this region. The Rwanda Climate Observatory, a joint partnership between MIT and the government of Rwanda, has been measuring ambient concentrations of key long-lived greenhouse gases and short-lived climate-forcing pollutants (CO2, CO, CH4, BC, O3) with state-of-the-art instruments on the summit of Mt. Mugogo (1.586° S, 29.566° E, 2590 m above sea level) since May 2015. Rwanda is a small, mountainous, and densely populated country in equatorial East Africa, currently undergoing rapid development but still at less than 20 % urbanization. The position and meteorology of Rwanda is such that the emissions transported from both the northern and southern African biomass burning seasons affect BC, CO, and O3 concentrations in Rwanda. Black carbon concentrations during Rwanda's two dry seasons, which coincide with the two biomass burning seasons, are higher at Mt. Mugogo than in major European cities. Higher BC baseline concentrations at Mugogo are loosely correlated with fire radiative power data for the region acquired with MODIS satellite instrument. Spectral aerosol absorption measured with a dual-spot Aethalometer also varies in different seasons, likely due to change in types of fuel burned and direction of pollution transport to the site. Ozone concentration was found to be higher in air masses from southern Africa than from northern Africa during their respective biomass burning seasons. These higher ozone concentration in air masses from the south could be indicative of more anthropogenic emissions mixed with the biomass burning emissions from southern Africa as Rwanda is downwind of major East African capital cities in this season. During the rainy season, local emitting activities (e.g., cooking, transportation, trash burning) remain steady, regional biomass burning is low, and transport distances are shorter as rainout of pollution occurs regularly. Thus local pollution at Mugogo can be estimated during this time period. Understanding and quantification of the percent contributions of regional and local emissions is essential to guide policy in the region. Our measurements indicate that air pollution is a current and growing problem in equatorial East Africa that deserves immediate attention.

Description: This study examines the co-benefits to industrial development and trade of increased deployment of renewable energy in Turkey. The research is carried out in the context of the COBENEFITS project, which assesses a range of additional cobenefits of renewable energy in developing countries, besides reducing energy sector greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, when compared to conventional energy systems. The study also provides initial insights on the regional trade opportunities available to Turkey, should technological gaps in the solar and wind sectors be narrowed. The study methodology focused firstly on defining value chains for the solar and wind energy sectors in Turkey. This was done using licence and pre-licence information from the Energy Market Regulatory Authority and a unique administrative micro dataset (EIS) that includes all registered firms in Turkey and their domestic and export transactions. Secondly, coefficients for the value of production and trade were calculated. Finally, projections on industrial development and import–export values were estimated according to four scenarios for increased renewable energy (RE) capacity. As this study takes a static look at the scenarios, the current trade deficit resulting from low local value of production and technological gaps in the manufacture of renewable energy equipment are also observed as core issues that should be addressed by renewable energy policies.

Description: Despite the expectation of potentially vast petroleum resources in the offshore Arctic over the last decade, actual exploration and production rates are rather low. As of today, there are only two producing oil fields and one natural gas field in production. While technical challenges and a low oil price are among the explaining factors, the legal regimes for awarding licenses in Arctic waters may have a significant impact on industry interest as well. Offshore licensing regimes in Arctic countries range from State-centric in Russia to market-based in the United States. Further, some States developed additional requirements for companies wishing to operate in the Arctic waters. This paper examines the interconnections between the legal regimes for offshore licenses and the rates of industry activity in petroleum development in Arctic waters. It does so by devising an analytical comparative framework for the licensing regimes across five Arctic States. The results are then analysed in the context of actual exploration and production rates in Arctic waters. The analysis sheds light on the role of licensing regimes on the level of industry interest and corresponding exploration and production rates.

Description: In the framework of the EURODELTA-Trends (EDT) modeling experiment, several chemical transport models (CTMs) were applied for the 1990–2010 period to investigate air quality changes in Europe as well as the capability of the models to reproduce observed long-term air quality trends. Five CTMs have provided modeled air quality data for 21 continuous years in Europe using emission scenarios prepared by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis/Greenhouse Gas – Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (IIASA/GAINS) and corresponding year-by-year meteorology derived from ERA-Interim global reanalysis. For this study, long-term observations of particle sulfate (SO2−4), total nitrate (TNO3), total ammonium (TNHx) as well as sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) for multiple sites in Europe were used to evaluate the model results. The trend analysis was performed for the full 21 years (referred to as PT) but also for two 11-year subperiods: 1990–2000 (referred to as P1) and 2000–2010 (referred to as P2). The experiment revealed that the models were able to reproduce the faster decline in observed SO2 concentrations during the first decade, i.e., 1990–2000, with a 64 %–76 % mean relative reduction in SO2 concentrations indicated by the EDT experiment (range of all the models) versus an 82 % mean relative reduction in observed concentrations. During the second decade (P2), the models estimated a mean relative reduction in SO2 concentrations of about 34 %–54 %, which was also in line with that observed (47 %). Comparisons of observed and modeled NO2 trends revealed a mean relative decrease of 25 % and between 19 % and 23 % (range of all the models) during the P1 period, and 12 % and between 22 % and 26 % (range of all the models) during the P2 period, respectively. Comparisons of observed and modeled trends in SO2−4 concentrations during the P1 period indicated that the models were able to reproduce the observed trends at most of the sites, with a 42 %–54 % mean relative reduction indicated by the EDT experiment (range of all models) versus a 57 % mean relative reduction in observed concentrations and with good performance also during the P2 and PT periods, even though all the models overpredicted the number of statistically significant decreasing trends during the P2 period. Moreover, especially during the P1 period, both modeled and observational data indicated smaller reductions in SO2−4 concentrations compared with their gas-phase precursor (i.e., SO2), which could be mainly attributed to increased oxidant levels and pH-dependent cloud chemistry. An analysis of the trends in TNO3 concentrations indicated a 28 %–39 % and 29 % mean relative reduction in TNO3 concentrations for the full period for model data (range of all the models) and observations, respectively. Further analysis of the trends in modeled HNO3 and particle nitrate (NO−3) concentrations revealed that the relative reduction in HNO3 was larger than that for NO−3 during the P1 period, which was mainly attributed to an increased availability of “free ammonia”. By contrast, trends in modeled HNO3 and NO−3 concentrations were more comparable during the P2 period. Also, trends of TNHx concentrations were, in general, underpredicted by all models, with worse performance for the P1 period than for P2. Trends in modeled anthropogenic and biogenic secondary organic aerosol (ASOA and BSOA) concentrations together with the trends in available emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) were also investigated. A strong decrease in ASOA was indicated by all the models, following the reduction in anthropogenic non-methane VOC (NMVOC) precursors. Biogenic emission data provided by the modeling teams indicated a few areas with statistically significant increase in isoprene emissions and monoterpene emissions during the 1990–2010 period over Fennoscandia and eastern European regions (i.e., around 14 %–27 %), which was mainly attributed to the increase of surface temperature. However, the modeled BSOA concentrations did not linearly follow the increase in biogenic emissions. Finally, a comprehensive evaluation against positive matrix factorization (PMF) data, available during the second period (P2) at various European sites, revealed a systematic underestimation of the modeled SOA fractions of a factor of 3 to 11, on average, most likely because of missing SOA precursors and formation pathways, with reduced biases for the models that accounted for chemical aging of semi-volatile SOA components in the atmosphere.

Description: Poster outlines PhD project outline and presents background, aims, objectives and developing research questions.

Description: Making sense of the implications of climate engineering approaches (solar radiation management, SRM; and carbon dioxide removal, CDR) at planetary scales occurs via a host of methods that calculate, project, and imagine the future in distinct ways. We take a systemic and synthesizing view of some of the (inter)disciplinary methods by which these futures are derived: climate and integrated assessment modeling, ‘deductive’ modes of social science inquiry, deliberative stakeholder engagement, and foresight-based scenarios. We speak to the epistemologies, objectives, and user communities surrounding these research practices, highlighting that different modes of constructing and interpreting evidence about an unformed future yield different kinds of results and signals for actions to be taken. We show how different methods for exploring ‘futures’ form an evolving history of how the risks of CE have been assessed (or constructed), and conclude by echoing calls for a stronger shared understanding of the practices and politics that underpin future-oriented research.

Description: This summary for decision-makers is based on the report ‘Strengthening Regional Ocean Governance for the High Seas: Opportunities and Challenges to Improve the Legal and Institutional Framework of the Southeast Atlantic and Southeast Pacific’. It is targeted towards policy and decision-makers as well as others working on issues of ocean governance, particularly in the Southeast Atlantic and Southeast Pacific regions The report was prepared as part of the Strengthening Regional Ocean Governance for the High Seas (‘STRONG High Seas’) project and builds on previous studies, particularly in relation to the Southeast Pacific. It is intended to provide a review of the relevant governance frameworks currently in place for the management of high seas biodiversity in these regions. The report uses the issues under discussion in the ongoing negotiations for a new legally binding BBNJ agreement under the United Nations, as well as selected Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 targets, as a lens through which to assess progress towards conservation and sustainable use.

Description: All stakeholders, and perhaps especially the public, should acknowledge that sustainable management of complex public risk is always going to be a matter of judgement. Such judgements will always face challenges of uncertainty and controversy and, while there are legitimate questions to be asked about who should make the decision and the effectiveness of their chosen approaches, it is central that decision makers receive a clear mandate and appropriate political support and trust. The concepts discussed encourage approaches to risk that permit it to be intelligently understood and managed. They are intended to foster appropriate approaches to risk decision making by those in authority, to ensure that decision making is proportionate, ethical, fair and trusted, and perceived to be so by those on whose behalf the decisions are made. It is useful to distinguish ‘how the public thinks about risk’ and ‘how public risk perception and choices are thought about by authority’, and both deserve critical scrutiny. Public pressure around environmental risk has promoted a more balanced conception that recognizes decisions are not based only on formalised knowledge about likely impacts and that it is necessary to think more broadly about ways to implement sustainable management actions. However, a similar approach is lacking in other areas, such as lifestyle risk. Cross fertilisation of good practice between different areas will be important for future improvement. It is necessary to achieve a balance between placing greater emphasis upon the contextual logic of public risk choices whilst also promoting the insight available from scientific inquiries based on data acquisition, statistical analysis and probability theory. Ten principles have been developed to address a number of important issues that have arisen from a wide-ranging evaluation of contemporary successes and failures in public risk interventions. The first four principles are intended to guide decision makers on ways to utilise insights into risk concepts in making policy decisions. Principles 5-8 relate to improving the quality of risk analysis and numbers 9 and 10 are suggestions for helping the public to make better risk decisions for themselves. Finally, an additional principle, number 11, acknowledges that we live in a dynamic world and reminds policy makers that this includes a need to respond to developments in approaches to the consideration and management of risk.

Description: Energy poverty has become one of the major challenges faced by the world's energy system. However, there is no consensus on the measure of energy poverty. Several approaches have been proposed, among which the energy poverty line has been defined as the minimum quantity of energy required for basic life, particularly for cooking and heating. This paper estimates the relationship between energy expenditure and household income and identifies the energy poverty line based on the threshold above which the energy share becomes insensitive to household income using household survey data from rural Qinghai, China. Considering the ongoing energy transition and the negative impacts of biomass energy consumption for the environment and health, the study sets a scenario in which all bioenergy consumption is replaced with electricity. The findings show that 57% of rural households in rural Qinghai are energy poor. The phase of energy poverty in terms of basic energy access has passed, so increasing the share of efficient modern energy in household energy consumption requires more attention. Considering the existence of a population that is not income poor but is energy poor, a conventional policy design that primarily targets income-poor households may be inappropriate in this case.

Description: Our data holds information on 10 specific policy instruments explicitly dedicated to the support for expansion of renewable electricity generation 1990-2016; some instruments, including taxation of non-renewables or emission trading, affect other sectors than renewable power, but are mentioned in their original policy description to also be dedicated to increasing renewable power. Our data concerns national policy measures, but ignores policies enacted on higher (e.g. EU-level in Europe) or lower (e.g. state-level policies in Canada, USA) political levels. For example, the “no support” entry for the United Arab Emirates indicates that there were no national-level policies: all policies were, in this case, emirate-specific.

Description: International cooperation in support of a global energy transition is on the rise, and official develop­ment assistance (ODA) in the energy sector is increasingly being directed to renewable energy sources. Nevertheless, it is widely acknowledged that investment towards achieving the SDG 7 on clean and affordable energy is insufficient. Moreover, investment in clean energy remains heavily concentrated in a small number of frontrunner countries and overwhelmingly targets grid-connected electricity generation. Worryingly, significant share of international public sector financeing, most notably by export-credit agencies, is still allocated to coal and other fossil-based technologies. Against this background, this paper makes three recommendations for strengthening international cooperation in support of a global energy transition. (1) Promote investment in clean energy and end support for coal-based energy infrastructure. OECD and G20 countries should lead the way by discontinuing all public investment support for new coal-based energy infrastructure and establish guidelines for support to other fossil-based investments. (2) Promote evidence-policy dialogue on the socio-economic dimension of the global energy transition. International cooperation should play an active role in mobilising socio-economic benefits and address potential risks by supporting evidence-based policy dialogue based on robust assessments at both the country and global levels. (3) Provide early market support to promote challenge-based energy innovation. SE4ALL or Mission Innovation should create multi-stakeholder, challenge-based initiatives to promote clean energy innovation in developing and emerging economies and foster early market demand for related products or services.

Description: Germany and the United Kingdom have domestic shale gas reserves which they may exploit in the future to complement their national energy strategies. However gas production releases volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), which through photochemical reaction form ground-level ozone, an air pollutant that can trigger adverse health effects e.g. on the respiratory system. This study explores the range of impacts of a potential shale gas industry in these two countries on local and regional ambient ozone. To this end, comprehensive emission scenarios are used as the basis for input to an online-coupled regional chemistry transport model (WRF-Chem). Here we simulate shale gas scenarios over summer (June, July, August) 2011, exploring the effects of varying VOC emissions, gas speciation, and concentration of NOx emissions over space and time, on ozone formation. An evaluation of the model setup is performed, which exhibited the model’s ability to predict surface meteorological and chemical variables well compared with observations, and consistent with other studies. When different shale gas scenarios were employed, the results show a peak increase in maximum daily 8-hour average ozone from 3.7 to 28.3 μg m–3. In addition, we find that shale gas emissions can force ozone exceedances at a considerable percentage of regulatory measurement stations locally (up to 21% in Germany and 35% in the United Kingdom) and in distant countries through long-range transport, and increase the cumulative health-related metric SOMO35 (maximum percent increase of ~28%) throughout the region. Findings indicate that VOC emissions are important for ozone enhancement, and to a lesser extent NOx, meaning that VOC regulation for a future European shale gas industry will be of especial importance to mitigate unfavorable health outcomes. Overall our findings demonstrate that shale gas production in Europe can worsen ozone air quality on both the local and regional scales.

Description: 1. Climate change is impacting marine ecosystems and their goods and services in diverse ways, which can directly hinder our ability to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), set out under the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. 2. Through expert elicitation and a literature review, we find that most climate change effects have a wide variety of negative consequences across marine ecosystem services, though most studies have highlighted impacts from warming and consequences of marine species. 3. Climate change is expected to negatively influence marine ecosystem services through global stressors — such as ocean warming and acidification — but also by amplifying local and regional stressors such as freshwater runoff and pollution load. 4. Experts indicated that all SDGs would be overwhelmingly negatively affected by these climate impacts on marine ecosystem services, with eliminating hunger being among the most directly negatively affected SDG. 5. Despite these challenges, the SDGs aiming to transform our consumption and production practices and develop clean energy systems are found to be least affected by marine climate impacts. These findings represent a strategic point of entry for countries to achieve sustainable development, given that these two goals are relatively robust to climate impacts and that they are important pre‐requisite for other SDGs. 6. Our results suggest that climate change impacts on marine ecosystems are set to make the SDGs a moving target travelling away from us. Effective and urgent action towards sustainable development, including mitigating and adapting to climate impacts on marine systems are important to achieve the SDGs, but the longer this action stalls the more distant these goals will become.