ALBERT

Description: In a decarbonised future electricity system, Europe will rely on fluctuating renewable sources, such as solar PV and wind power, to a much larger extent than today. This means that Europe as a whole and each individual country on the continent must increase the availability of flexibilityoptionsin order to balance the grid. Such flexibility options include dispatchable renewable sources (e.g. concentrating solar power (CSP)with thermal storage), electricity storage, anddemand-response. We start from the notion that the future does not happen, but it is madeby a series of policy decisions between now and then. If this is true, then the electricity system of 2050 is determined by the sum of all policy decisions affecting the power system – the policy pathway – in all legislations in Europeuntil 2050. In this report, we take the first steps towards identifying the potential future role for dispatchable renewables – specifically CSP with thermal storage – as a function of policy decisions that either increase the need for power system flexibility (e.g. fluctuating renewables) or provide flexibility (e.g. storage, dispatchable renewables, flexible demand). We draw on the energy transition logics framework developed by Foxon and colleagues. This framework poses that the space of possible energy transition pathways is a triangle with three distinct policy logicsin its corners: a state-centred logic, in which the central government leads or carries out the transition; a market-centred logic, in which the government sets the framework but leaves all other decisions to market actors; and a grassroots-centred logic, in which the transition is carried out locally with the resources available to each community. Any transition strategy will consist, in some constellation, of policies from these corner. We investigate policy strategies in France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Switzerland and of the European Union as a whole. For each case, we define one dominant pathway, consisting of currently valid, implemented policies of the current (or newly resigned) government. In addition, we identify up to three minority pathwaysfor each case, describing the energy policy visions and strategies of parties that are currently in opposition but could form a government in the future. For each case, we identify pathways representing each of the three logics, bothin narrative formand as a set of 41 quantitative variables affecting the need for and provision of power system flexibility. This report is a primary data source for the power system modelling in the MUSTEC project. This modelling will happen in 2019 and 2020, and will bring detailed, quantitiave insights of how the potential role for dispatchable renewables is affected by energy policy decisions. However,from the data we have derivedhere, we can draw a number of conclusions. We show that all countries and the EU as a whole seek to strongly decarbonise their power systems, as a key part of economy-wide decarbonisation efforts. Some countries have plans that would suffice to fulfil the European (Union and national) commitments under the Paris Agreement: net-zero emissions, mainly or exclusively based on renewables. We also show that all countries seek to vastly expand intermittent renewables, which will trigger a greatly increased need for flexibility. However, this is not reflected in the policies we analysed: no pathway, dominant or minority, is specific on how they want to provide flexibility, especially not at the scale and pace needed. This problem will be exacerbated as the climate targets are tightened and fossil fuels – first coal and lignite (mainly in the 2020s) and later gas power (especially in the 2040s) – are phased out: once this happens, the European power system(s) will lose much of its current flexibility, and unlessother, carbon-free flexibility options are expanded, it will be increasingly difficult to maintain power system stability.

Description: This paper examines the recent evolution of the domestic and external dimension of hydrogen in Spain. When published in 2020, the Spanish Hydrogen Strategy was focused on the creation of hydrogen clusters that could concentrate production and consumption, attracting economic activity associated with the molecule. For this reason, the external dimension of Spain's hydrogen strategy was relatively modest in its nascent state. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the EU Commission's call in the REPowerEU to increase the level of ambition for renewable hydrogen has led to a change in Spain's hydrogen policy, reinforcing its external and energy security dimensions and contributing to a more geopolitically resilient Europe. This new approach to hydrogen development creates a complex tension between the promises of industrial development and the potential for integrating Spain in the European energy system.

Description: Concentrated solar power (CSP) is one of the few renewable power technologies capable of generating dispatchable electricity on demand. As such, it could play a key role in the transition of the European power system, both to supply bulk renewable power and to balance fluctuating wind power and solar PV. Despite this, CSP’s presence in most European policy agendas is largely missing. To some extent, this is because CSP is still a small and relatively immature technology, and no European country except Spain has deployed CSP at a commercial scale. This absence of CSP, with or without cooperation mechanisms, can lead to Europe missing an opportunity to improve its energy security. For this purpose, CSP has a vital role to play, as it is one of the few, if not the only, dispatchable renewable power technology that can be scaled up in Europe: CSP can thus be used to stabilise the system as the shares of fluctuating renewables increase. As these fluctuations are the biggest threat to a renewables-based power system, and especially as CSP would not add any further significant threats or vulnerabilities, CSP would increase the energy security of the European power system compared with any other climate-neutral configuration without CSP.

Description: We investigate whether political ideology has an observable effect on decarbonization ambition, renewable power aims, and preferences for power system balancing technologies in four European countries. Based on the Energy Logics framework, we identify ideologically different transition strategies (state-centered, market-centered, grassroots-centered) contained in government policies and opposition party programs valid in 2019. We compare these policies and programs with citizen poll data. We find that ideology has a small effect: governments and political parties across the spectrum have similar, and relatively ambitious, decarbonization and renewables targets. This mirrors citizens’ strong support for ambitious action regardless of their ideological self-description. However, whereas political positions on phasing out fossil fuel power are clear across the policy space, positions on phasing in new flexibility options to balance intermittent renewables are vague or non-existent. As parties and citizens agree on strong climate and renewable power aims, the policy ambition is likely to remain high, even if governments change.

Description: The outbreak of COVID-19 has completely changed the European Union’s internal geopolitical landscape, including in the energy domain. The political and economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic has made internal geopolitical and geo-economic drivers even more relevant than before. Countries like Italy and Spain are expected to be among the most affected, having the higher death tolls and the biggest economic and social costs, which risks exacerbating populist and nationalist movements and political parties. Anti-EU feelings and a North-South political divide risk to re-emerge and intensify, re-opening the wounds of the financial crisis. Because the COVID-19 crisis implies a significant shift in the EU’s geopolitical and energy geopolitics’ landscape, the scope of this deliverable has been expanded to reflect the new context. Sufficiently high climate ambitions are another enabler of CSP development, because they hinder the use of fossil power plants as a backup of fluctuating renewables and supply of electricity demand exceeding the realizable potential of other renewables. Hence, CSP with its additional advantage of dispatchability becomes more important under such conditions.

Description: Despite geopolitics play a pivotal role in the energy sector, geopolitical aspects are often not considered in the quantitative assessment models aimed at supporting the energy investment decision-making process. To address this issue, this work proposes an Extended Multi-regional Input-Output model (EMRIO) that incorporates import dependence and governance along the value chain. As case study, two alternative energy investments in Mexico – a Natural Gas Power plant (NG) and a Concentrated Solar Power plant (CSP) – are assessed. The method quantifies the geographical diversification of suppliers and the quality of governance. The assessment of the case study shows that the supply chain of the CSP plant includes more countries and with better governance levels than the supply chain of the NG power plant. That means, a priori, that the supply risks of investing in CSP power plants will be lower, as will suppliers' endogenous geopolitical risk. However, a sensitivity analysis considering different providers of the solar plant components reveals that CSP plant value chain could also entail similar or even higher governance risks levels as the NG plant. The scenario where China provides some of the components entails a much higher governance risks, even higher than the NG base case. In consequence, we have proved that the method proposed allows the identification of hidden geopolitical risks that would otherwise go unnoticed. This paper enlarges the existing knowledge on assessment methodologies for energy policy decision-support by measuring diversification and imports dependence from countries with different levels of governance along the whole value chain.

Description: This paper describes and quantifies three different energy policy pathways for Spain’s energy transition: government-centred, represented by the socialist party (Partido Socialista Obrero Español, PSOE); market-centred, represented by the conservative party (Partido Popular, PP); and grassroots, represented by Unidas Podemos.