ALBERT

Description: Glaciers in the European Alps began to retreat abruptly from their mid-19th century maximum, marking what appeared to be the end of the Little Ice Age. Alpine temperature and precipitation records suggest that glaciers should instead have continued to grow until circa 1910. Radiative forcing by increasing deposition of industrial...

Description: The Tibetan Plateau (TP), the highest and largest plateau in the world, has long been identified to be critical in regulating the Asian monsoon climate and hydrological cycle. The snowpack and glaciers over the TP provide fresh water to billions of people in Asian countries, but the TP glaciers have been retreating faster than those anywhere else in the world. In this modeling study a series of numerical experiments with a global climate model are designed to simulate radiative forcing of black carbon (BC) and dust in snow, and to assess the relative impacts of anthropogenic CO2 and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere and snow on the snowpack over the TP and subsequent impacts on the Asian monsoon climate and hydrological cycle. Simulations results show a large BC content in snow over the TP, especially the southern slope, with concentration larger than 100 μg/kg. Because of the high aerosol content in snow and large incident solar radiation in the low latitude and high elevation, the TP exhibits the largest surface radiative forcing induced by aerosols (e.g. BC, Dust) in snow compared to other snow-covered regions in the world. Simulation results show that the aerosol-induced snow albedo perturbations generate surface radiative forcing of 5–25 W m−2 during spring, with a maximum in April or May. BC-in-snow increases the surface air temperature by around 1.0 °C averaged over the TP and reduces spring snowpack over the TP more than pre-industrial to present CO2 increase and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere. As a result, runoff increases during late winter and early spring but decreases during late spring and early summer (i.e. a trend toward earlier melt dates). The snowmelt efficacy, defined as the snowpack reduction per unit degree of warming induced by the forcing agent, is 1–4 times larger for BC-in-snow than CO2 increase during April–July, indicating that BC-in-snow more efficiently accelerates snowmelt because the increased net solar radiation induced by reduced albedo melts the snow more efficiently than snow melt due to warming in the air. The TP also influences the South (SAM) and East (EAM) Asian monsoon through its dynamical and thermal forcing. Simulation results show that during boreal spring aerosols are transported by southwesterly, causing some particles to reach higher altitude and deposit to the snowpack over the TP. While BC and OM in the atmosphere directly absorb sunlight and warm the air, the darkened snow surface polluted by BC absorbs more solar radiation and increases the skin temperature, which warms the air above through sensible heat flux. Both effects enhance the upward motion of air and spur deep convection along the TP during the pre-monsoon season, resulting in earlier onset of the SAM and increase of moisture, cloudiness and convective precipitation over Northern India. BC-in-snow has a more significant impact on the EAM in July than CO2 increase and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere. Contributed by the significant increase of both sensible heat flux associated with the warm skin temperature and latent heat flux associated with increased soil moisture with long memory, the role of the TP as a heat pump is elevated from spring through summer as the land-sea thermal contrast increases to strengthen the EAM. As a result, both Southern China and Northern China become wetter, but Central China (i.e. Yangtze River Basin) becomes drier – a near-zonal anomaly pattern that is consistent with the dominant mode of precipitation variability in East Asia.

Description: We propose a measure to quantify climate warming or cooling by pollutants with atmospheric lifetimes of less than one year: the Specific Forcing Pulse (SFP). SFP is the amount of energy added to the Earth system per mass of pollutant emitted. Global average SFP for black carbon, including atmosphere and cryosphere, is 1.12 GJ g−1 and that for organic matter is −0.061 GJ g−1. We provide regional values for black carbon (BC) and organic matter (OM) emitted from 23 source-region combinations, divided between atmosphere and cryosphere impacts and identifying forcing by latitude. Regional SFP varies by about 40% for black carbon. This variation is relatively small because of compensating effects; particles from regions that affect ice albedo typically have shorter atmospheric lifetimes because of lower convection. The ratio between BC and OM SFP implies that, for direct forcing, an OM:BC mass ratio of 15 has a neutral effect on top-of-atmosphere direct forcing for any region, and any lower ratio induces direct warming. However, important processes, particularly cloud changes that tend toward cooling, have not been included here. We demonstrate ensemble adjustment, in which we produce a "best estimate" by combining a suite of diverse but simple models and enhanced models of greater complexity. Adjustments for black carbon internal mixing and for regional variability are discussed; regions with convection are implicated in greater model diversity. SFP expresses scientific uncertainty and separates it from policy uncertainty; the latter is caused by disagreements about the relevant time horizon, impact, or spatial scale of interest. However, metrics used in policy discussions, such as global warming potentials, are easily derived from SFP. Global-average SFP for biofuel and fossil fuel emissions translates to a 100-year GWP of about 760 for black carbon and −40 for organic matter when snow forcing is included. Ensemble-adjusted estimates of atmospheric radiative impact by black and organic matter using year 2000 emissions are +0.46 W m−2 and −0.17 W m−2, respectively; anthropogenic forcing is +0.38 W m−2 and −0.12 W m−2. The black carbon value is only 11% higher than that of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), although this value includes enhanced absorption due to internal mixing.

Description: The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has long been identified to be critical in regulating the Asian monsoon climate and hydrological cycle. In this modeling study a series of numerical experiments with a global climate model are designed to simulate radiative effect of black carbon (BC) and dust in snow, and to assess the relative impacts of anthropogenic CO2 and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere and snow on the snowpack over the TP and subsequent impacts on the Asian monsoon climate and hydrological cycle. Simulations results show a large BC content in snow over the TP, especially the southern slope. Because of the high aerosol content in snow and large incident solar radiation in the low latitude and high elevation, the TP exhibits the largest surface radiative flux changes induced by aerosols (e.g. BC, Dust) in snow compared to any other snow-covered regions in the world. Simulation results show that the aerosol-induced snow albedo perturbations generate surface radiative flux changes of 5–25 W m−2 during spring, with a maximum in April or May. BC-in-snow increases the surface air temperature by around 1.0 °C averaged over the TP and reduces spring snowpack over the TP more than pre-industrial to present CO2 increase and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere. As a result, runoff increases during late winter and early spring but decreases during late spring and early summer (i.e. a trend toward earlier melt dates). The snowmelt efficacy, defined as the snowpack reduction per unit degree of warming induced by the forcing agent, is 1–4 times larger for BC-in-snow than CO2 increase during April–July, indicating that BC-in-snow more efficiently accelerates snowmelt because the increased net solar radiation induced by reduced albedo melts the snow more efficiently than snow melt due to warming in the air. The TP also influences the South (SAM) and East (EAM) Asian monsoon through its dynamical and thermal forcing. Simulation results show that during boreal spring aerosols are transported by southwesterly, causing some particles to reach higher altitude and deposit to the snowpack over the TP. While BC and Organic Matter (OM) in the atmosphere directly absorb sunlight and warm the air, the darkened snow surface polluted by BC absorbs more solar radiation and increases the skin temperature, which warms the air above through sensible heat flux. Both effects enhance the upward motion of air and spur deep convection along the TP during the pre-monsoon season, resulting in earlier onset of the SAM and increase of moisture, cloudiness and convective precipitation over northern India. BC-in-snow has a more significant impact on the EAM in July than CO2 increase and carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere. Contributed by the significant increase of both sensible heat flux associated with the warm skin temperature and latent heat flux associated with increased soil moisture with long memory, the role of the TP as a heat pump is elevated from spring through summer as the land-sea thermal contrast increases to strengthen the EAM. As a result, both southern China and northern China become wetter, but central China (i.e. Yangtze River Basin) becomes drier – a near-zonal anomaly pattern that is consistent with the dominant mode of precipitation variability in East Asia. The snow impurity effects reported in this study likely represent some upper limits as snowpack is remarkably overestimated over the TP due to excessive precipitation. Improving the simulation of precipitation and snowpack will be important for improved estimates of the effects of snowpack pollution in future work.

Description: During El Niño years, fires in tropical forests and peatlands in equatorial Asia create large regional smoke clouds. We characterized the sensitivity of these clouds to regional drought, and we investigated their effects on climate by using an atmospheric general circulation model. Satellite observations during 2000–2006 indicated that El Niño-induced regional drought led to increases in fire emissions and, consequently, increases in aerosol optical depths over Sumatra, Borneo and the surrounding ocean. Next, we used the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) to investigate how climate responded to this forcing. We conducted two 30 year simulations in which monthly fire emissions were prescribed for either a high (El Niño, 1997) or low (La Niña, 2000) fire year using a satellite-derived time series of fire emissions. Our simulations included the direct and semi-direct effects of aerosols on the radiation budget within the model. We assessed the radiative and climate effects of anthropogenic fire by analyzing the differences between the high and low fire simulations. Fire aerosols reduced net shortwave radiation at the surface during August–October by 19.1±12.9 W m−2 (10%) in a region that encompassed most of Sumatra and Borneo (90° E–120° E, 5° S–5° N). The reductions in net shortwave radiation cooled sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and land surface temperatures by 0.5±0.3 and 0.4±0.2 °C during these months. Tropospheric heating from black carbon (BC) absorption averaged 20.5±9.3 W m−2 and was balanced by a reduction in latent heating. The combination of decreased SSTs and increased atmospheric heating reduced regional precipitation by 0.9±0.6 mm d−1 (10%). The vulnerability of ecosystems to fire was enhanced because the decreases in precipitation exceeded those for evapotranspiration. Together, the satellite and modeling results imply a possible positive feedback loop in which anthropogenic burning in the region intensifies drought stress during El Niño.

Description: Climatic effects of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) differ from those of long-lived greenhouse gases, because they occur rapidly after emission and because they depend upon the region of emission. The distinctive temporal and spatial nature of these impacts is not captured by measures that rely on global averages or long time integrations. Here, we propose a simple measure, the Specific Forcing Pulse (SFP), to quantify climate warming or cooling by these pollutants, where we define "immediate" as occurring primarily within the first year after emission. SFP is the amount of energy added to or removed from a receptor region in the Earth-atmosphere system by a chemical species, per mass of emission in a source region. We limit the application of SFP to species that remain in the atmosphere for less than one year. Metrics used in policy discussions, such as total forcing or global warming potential, are easily derived from SFP. However, SFP conveys purely physical information without incurring the policy implications of choosing a time horizon for the global warming potential. Using one model (Community Atmosphere Model, or CAM), we calculate values of SFP for black carbon (BC) and organic matter (OM) emitted from 23 source-region combinations. Global SFP for both atmosphere and cryosphere impacts is divided among receptor latitudes. SFP is usually greater for open-burning emissions than for energy-related (fossil-fuel and biofuel) emissions because of the timing of emission. Global SFP for BC varies by about 45% for energy-related emissions from different regions. This variation would be larger except for compensating effects. When emitted aerosol has larger cryosphere forcing, it often has lower atmosphere forcing because of less deep convection and a shorter atmospheric lifetime. A single model result is insufficient to capture uncertainty. We develop a best estimate and uncertainties for SFP by combining forcing results from 12 additional models. We outline a framework for combining a large number of simple models with a smaller number of enhanced models that have greater complexity. Adjustments for black carbon internal mixing and for regional variability are discussed. Emitting regions with more deep convection have greater model diversity. Our best estimate of global-mean SFP is +1.03 ± 0.52 GJ g−1 for direct atmosphere forcing of black carbon, +1.15 ± 0.53 GJ g−1 for black carbon including direct and cryosphere forcing, and −0.064 (−0.02, −0.13) GJ g−1 for organic matter. These values depend on the region and timing of emission. The lowest OM:BC mass ratio required to produce a neutral effect on top-of-atmosphere direct forcing is 15:1 for any region. Any lower ratio results in positive direct forcing. However, important processes, particularly cloud changes that tend toward cooling, have not been included here. Global-average SFP for energy-related emissions can be converted to a 100-year GWP of about 740 ± 370 for BC without snow forcing, and 830 ± 440 with snow forcing. 100-year GWP for OM is −46 (−18, −92). Best estimates of atmospheric radiative impact (without snow forcing) by black and organic matter are +0.47 ± 0.26 W m−2 and −0.17 (−0.07, −0.35) W m−2 for BC and OM, respectively, assuming total emission rates of 7.4 and 45 Tg yr−1. Anthropogenic forcing is +0.40 ± 0.18 W m−2 and −0.13 (−0.05, −0.25) W m−2 for BC and OM, respectively, assuming anthropogenic emission rates of 6.3 and 32.6 Tg yr−1. Black carbon forcing is only 18% higher than that given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), although the value presented here includes enhanced absorption due to internal mixing.

Description: Desert dust perturbs climate by directly and indirectly interacting with incoming solar and outgoing long wave radiation, thereby changing precipitation and temperature, in addition to modifying ocean and land biogeochemistry. While we know that desert dust is sensitive to perturbations in climate and human land use, previous studies have been unable to determine whether humans were increasing or decreasing desert dust in the global average. Here we present observational estimates of desert dust based on paleodata proxies showing a doubling of desert dust during the 20th century over much, but not all the globe. Large uncertainties remain in estimates of desert dust variability over 20th century due to limited data. Using these observational estimates of desert dust change in combination with ocean, atmosphere and land models, we calculate the net radiative effect of these observed changes (top of atmosphere) over the 20th century to be −0.14 ± 0.11 W/m2 (1990–1999 vs. 1905–1914). The estimated radiative change due to dust is especially strong between the heavily loaded 1980–1989 and the less heavily loaded 1955–1964 time periods (−0.57 ± 0.46 W/m2), which model simulations suggest may have reduced the rate of temperature increase between these time periods by 0.11 °C. Model simulations also indicate strong regional shifts in precipitation and temperature from desert dust changes, causing 6 ppm (12 PgC) reduction in model carbon uptake by the terrestrial biosphere over the 20th century. Desert dust carries iron, an important micronutrient for ocean biogeochemistry that can modulate ocean carbon storage; here we show that dust deposition trends increase ocean productivity by an estimated 6% over the 20th century, drawing down an additional 4 ppm (8 PgC) of carbon dioxide into the oceans. Thus, perturbations to desert dust over the 20th century inferred from observations are potentially important for climate and biogeochemistry, and our understanding of these changes and their impacts should continue to be refined.

Description: As part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC) aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against observations including 12 ice core records, long-term surface mass concentrations, and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using offline models with prescribed meteorology from 1996–2000. We evaluate the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations using the recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, the global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology: 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However, the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day increases by 2.5–3 times with little variation among models, roughly matching the 2.5-fold increase in total BC emissions during the same period. We find a large divergence among models at both Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC surface mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Ispra. However, the models fail to predict the Arctic BC seasonality due to severe underestimations during winter and spring. The simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2–3 of the BC snowpack measurements except for Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. For the ice core evaluation, models tend to adequately capture both the observed temporal trends and the magnitudes at Greenland sites. However, models fail to predict the decreasing trend of BC depositions/ice core concentrations from the 1950s to the 1970s in most Tibetan Plateau ice cores. The distinct temporal trend at the Tibetan Plateau ice cores indicates a strong influence from Western Europe, but the modeled BC increases in that period are consistent with the emission changes in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, South and East Asia. At the Alps site, the simulated BC suggests a strong influence from Europe, which agrees with the Alps ice core observations. At Zuoqiupu on the Tibetan Plateau, models successfully simulate the higher BC concentrations observed during the non-monsoon season compared to the monsoon season but overpredict BC in both seasons. Despite a large divergence in BC deposition at two Antarctic ice core sites, some models with a BC lifetime of less than 7 days are able to capture the observed concentrations. In 2000 relative to 1850, globally and annually averaged BC surface albedo forcing from the offline simulations ranges from 0.014 to 0.019 W m−2 among the ACCMIP models. Comparing offline and online BC albedo forcings computed by some of the same models, we find that the global annual mean can vary by up to a factor of two because of different aerosol models or different BC-snow parameterizations and snow cover. The spatial distributions of the offline BC albedo forcing in 2000 show especially high BC forcing (i.e., over 0.1 W m−2) over Manchuria, Karakoram, and most of the Former USSR. Models predict the highest global annual mean BC forcing in 1980 rather than 2000, mostly driven by the high fossil fuel and biofuel emissions in the Former USSR in 1980.

Description: Here we explore light absorption by snowpack containing black carbon (BC) particles residing within ice grains. Basic considerations of particle volumes and BC/snow mass concentrations show that there are generally 0.05–109 BC particles for each ice grain. This suggests that internal BC is likely distributed as multiple inclusions within ice grains, and thus the dynamic effective medium approximation (DEMA) (Chýlek and Srivastava, 1983) is a more appropriate optical representation for BC/ice composites than coated-sphere or standard mixing approximations. DEMA calculations show that the 460 nm absorption cross-section of BC/ice composites, normalized to the mass of BC, is typically enhanced by factors of 1.8–2.1 relative to interstitial BC. BC effective radius is the dominant cause of variation in this enhancement, compared with ice grain size and BC volume fraction. We apply two atmospheric aerosol models that simulate interstitial and within-hydrometeor BC lifecycles. Although only ~2% of the atmospheric BC burden is cloud-borne, 71–83% of the BC deposited to global snow and sea-ice surfaces occurs within hydrometeors. Key processes responsible for within-snow BC deposition are development of hydrophilic coatings on BC, activation of liquid droplets, and subsequent snow formation through riming or ice nucleation by other species and aggregation/accretion of ice particles. Applying deposition fields from these aerosol models in offline snow and sea-ice simulations, we calculate that 32–73% of BC in global surface snow resides within ice grains. This fraction is smaller than the within-hydrometeor deposition fraction because meltwater flux preferentially removes internal BC, while sublimation and freezing within snowpack expose internal BC. Incorporating the DEMA into a global climate model, we simulate increases in BC/snow radiative forcing of 43–86%, relative to scenarios that apply external optical properties to all BC. We show that snow metamorphism driven by diffusive vapor transfer likely proceeds too slowly to alter the mass of internal BC while it is radiatively active, but neglected processes like wind pumping and convection may play much larger roles. These results suggest that a large portion of BC in surface snowpack may reside within ice grains and increase BC/snow radiative forcing, although measurements to evaluate this are lacking. Finally, previous studies of BC/snow forcing that neglected this absorption enhancement are not necessarily biased low, because of application of absorption-enhancing sulfate coatings to hydrophilic BC, neglect of coincident absorption by dust in snow, and implicit treatment of cloud-borne BC resulting in longer-range transport.