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  • 1
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    Cold atoms in space: community workshop summary and proposed road-map (2022)
    In:  EPJ Quantum Technology
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Description: We summarise the discussions at a virtual Community Workshop on Cold Atoms in Space concerning the status of cold atom technologies, the prospective scientific and societal opportunities offered by their deployment in space, and the developments needed before cold atoms could be operated in space. The cold atom technologies discussed include atomic clocks, quantum gravimeters and accelerometers, and atom interferometers. Prospective applications include metrology, geodesy and measurement of terrestrial mass change due to, e.g., climate change, and fundamental science experiments such as tests of the equivalence principle, searches for dark matter, measurements of gravitational waves and tests of quantum mechanics. We review the current status of cold atom technologies and outline the requirements for their space qualification, including the development paths and the corresponding technical milestones, and identifying possible pathfinder missions to pave the way for missions to exploit the full potential of cold atoms in space. Finally, we present a first draft of a possible road-map for achieving these goals, that we propose for discussion by the interested cold atom, Earth Observation, fundamental physics and other prospective scientific user communities, together with the European Space Agency (ESA) and national space and research funding agencies.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 2
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    Transforming knowledge systems for life on Earth: Visions of future systems and how to get there (2020)
    In:  Energy Research and Social Science
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-22
    Description: Formalised knowledge systems, including universities and research institutes, are important for contemporary societies. They are, however, also arguably failing humanity when their impact is measured against the level of progress being made in stimulating the societal changes needed to address challenges like climate change. In this research we used a novel futures-oriented and participatory approach that asked what future envisioned knowledge systems might need to look like and how we might get there. Findings suggest that envisioned future systems will need to be much more collaborative, open, diverse, egalitarian, and able to work with values and systemic issues. They will also need to go beyond producing knowledge about our world to generating wisdom about how to act within it. To get to envisioned systems we will need to rapidly scale methodological innovations, connect innovators, and creatively accelerate learning about working with intractable challenges. We will also need to create new funding schemes, a global knowledge commons, and challenge deeply held assumptions. To genuinely be a creative force in supporting longevity of human and non-human life on our planet, the shift in knowledge systems will probably need to be at the scale of the enlightenment and speed of the scientific and technological revolution accompanying the second World War. This will require bold and strategic action from governments, scientists, civic society and sustained transformational intent.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 3
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    The Global Seismic Moment Rate of Mars After Event S1222a (2023)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-20
    Description: The seismic activity of a planet can be described by the corner magnitude, events larger than which are extremely unlikely, and the seismic moment rate, the long‐term average of annual seismic moment release. Marsquake S1222a proves large enough to be representative of the global activity of Mars and places observational constraints on the moment rate. The magnitude‐frequency distribution of relevant Marsquakes indicates a $b$‐value of 1.06. The moment rate is likely between $1.55\times {10}^{15}\mathrm{N}\mathrm{m}/\mathrm{a}$ and $1.97\times {10}^{18}\mathrm{N}\mathrm{m}/\mathrm{a}$, with a marginal distribution peaking at $4.9\times {10}^{16}\mathrm{N}\mathrm{m}/\mathrm{a}$. Comparing this with pre‐InSight estimations shows that these tended to overestimate the moment rate, and that 30% or more of the tectonic deformation may occur silently, whereas the seismicity is probably restricted to localized centers rather than spread over the entire planet.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The seismic moment rate is a measure for how fast quakes accumulate deformation of the planet's rigid outer layer, the lithosphere. In the past decades, several models for the deformation rate of Mars were developed either from the traces quakes leave on the surface, or from mathematical models of how quickly the planet's interior cools down and shrinks. The large marsquake that occurred on the 4th of May 2022 now allows a statistical estimation of the deformation accumulated on Mars per year, and thus to confront these models with reality. It turns out that, although there is a considerable overlap, the models published prior to InSight tend to overestimate the seismic moment rate, and hence the ongoing deformation on Mars. Possible explanations are that 30% or more of the deformation occurs silently, that is, without causing quakes, or that not the entire planet is seismically active but only specific regions.
    Description: Key Points: A single large marsquake suffices to constrain the global seismic moment rate. Pre‐InSight estimations tended to overestimate the moment rate. Either a significant part of the ongoing deformation occurs silent, or seismic activity is restricted to some activity centers, or both.
    Description: Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003006
    Description: National Aeronautics and Space Administration http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000104
    Description: UK Space Agency http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100011690
    Description: Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und Raumfahrt http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002946
    Description: Insight SFI Research Centre for Data Analytics http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100021525
    Description: http://dx.doi.org/10.18715/SEIS.INSIGHT.XB_2016
    Description: http://doi.org/10.17189/1517570
    Keywords: ddc:523 ; Mars ; InSight ; seismic moment rate ; S1222a
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    A systematic global stocktake of evidence on human adaptation to climate change (2021)
    In:  Nature Climate Change
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-18
    Description: Assessing global progress on human adaptation to climate change is an urgent priority. Although the literature on adaptation to climate change is rapidly expanding, little is known about the actual extent of implementation. We systematically screened 〉48,000 articles using machine learning methods and a global network of 126 researchers. Our synthesis of the resulting 1,682 articles presents a systematic and comprehensive global stocktake of implemented human adaptation to climate change. Documented adaptations were largely fragmented, local and incremental, with limited evidence of transformational adaptation and negligible evidence of risk reduction outcomes. We identify eight priorities for global adaptation research: assess the effectiveness of adaptation responses, enhance the understanding of limits to adaptation, enable individuals and civil society to adapt, include missing places, scholars and scholarship, understand private sector responses, improve methods for synthesizing different forms of evidence, assess the adaptation at different temperature thresholds, and improve the inclusion of timescale and the dynamics of responses.
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Scenario setup and forcing data for impact model evaluation and impact attribution within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a) (2024)
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-11
    Description: This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human, and managed systems to climate change, rising CH4 and CO2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6.
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise (2021)
    In:  Nature
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Description: The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted with ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor with coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using 100 multiple models, but mostly used previous generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models, and find that limiting global warming to 1.5°C since preindustrial would halve the land ice contribution to sea level rise this century, relative to 105 predictions for current climate pledges under the Paris Agreement: the median 4 decreases from 25 to 13 cm sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to emissions scenario, due to competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing 110 the median land ice contribution to 42 cm SLE under current policies and pledges, with the upper end (95th percentile) exceeding half a metre even under 1.5°C warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained, adaptation must therefore plan for a factor 115 of three uncertainty in the land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise.
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    10 Must Knows from Biodiversity Science 2024 (2024)
    Leibniz Research Network Biodiversity
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-12
    Description: "There are no scientifically justified obstacles to protecting biodiversity in all its beauty and diversity. There are only six years left to achieve the biodiversity targets by 2030. We must work together now to get there in time." In the 10 Must Knows from Biodiversity Science 2024, 64 scientists have further developed their well-founded and diverse findings and recommendations from the 10MustKnows22. The content of the ten selected key areas of the Earth-human system is supplemented by relevant publications from 2022 and 2023 and linked to the 23 global goals of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (GBF) adopted in December 2022. The authors are aware that the next six years until 2030 are essential for achieving an ecologically sustainable and socially just life on our planet in the medium and long term. With the 10MustKnows24, they want to actively contribute to accelerating the socio-ecological transformation by providing scientifically sound recommendations for politics and society.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/report
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  • 8
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    Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (2022)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-10-13
    Description: Observation‐based and modeling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) region as a prominent climate change hotspot. While several initiatives have addressed the impacts of climate change in parts of the EMME, here we present an updated assessment, covering a wide range of timescales, phenomena and future pathways. Our assessment is based on a revised analysis of recent observations and projections and an extensive overview of the recent scientific literature on the causes and effects of regional climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions in the EMME are growing rapidly, surpassing those of the European Union, hence contributing significantly to climate change. Over the past half‐century and especially during recent decades, the EMME has warmed significantly faster than other inhabited regions. At the same time, changes in the hydrological cycle have become evident. The observed recent temperature increase of about 0.45°C per decade is projected to continue, although strong global greenhouse gas emission reductions could moderate this trend. In addition to projected changes in mean climate conditions, we call attention to extreme weather events with potentially disruptive societal impacts. These include the strongly increasing severity and duration of heatwaves, droughts and dust storms, as well as torrential rain events that can trigger flash floods. Our review is complemented by a discussion of atmospheric pollution and land‐use change in the region, including urbanization, desertification and forest fires. Finally, we identify sectors that may be critically affected and formulate adaptation and research recommendations toward greater resilience of the EMME region to climate change.
    Description: Key Points: The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East is warming almost two times faster than the global average and other inhabited parts of the world. Climate projections indicate a future warming, strongest in summers. Precipitation will likely decrease, particularly in the Mediterranean. Virtually all socio‐economic sectors will be critically affected by the projected changes.
    Description: European Union Horizon 2020
    Description: https://esg-dn1.nsc.liu.se/search/esgf-liu/
    Keywords: ddc:551.6
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    AgMIP-Wheat multi-model simulations on climate change impact and adaptation for global wheat (2023)
    In:  Open Data Journal for Agricultural Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-06
    Description: The climate change impact and adaptation simulations from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for wheat provide a unique dataset of multi-model ensemble simulations for 60 representative global locations covering all global wheat mega environments. The multi-model ensemble reported here has been thoroughly benchmarked against a large number of experimental data, including different locations, growing season temperatures, atmospheric CO2 concentration, heat stress scenarios, and their interactions. In this paper, we describe the main characteristics of this global simulation dataset. Detailed cultivar, crop management, and soil datasets were compiled for all locations to drive 32 wheat growth models. The dataset consists of 30-year simulated data including 25 output variables for nine climate scenarios, including Baseline (1980-2010) with 360 or 550 ppm CO2, Baseline +2oC or +4oC with 360 or 550 ppm CO2, a mid-century climate change scenario (RCP8.5, 571 ppm CO2), and 1.5°C (423 ppm CO2) and 2.0oC (487 ppm CO2) warming above the pre-industrial period (HAPPI). This global simulation dataset can be used as a benchmark from a well-tested multi-model ensemble in future analyses of global wheat. Also, resource use efficiency (e.g., for radiation, water, and nitrogen use) and uncertainty analyses under different climate scenarios can be explored at different scales. The DOI for the dataset is 10.5281/zenodo.4027033 (AgMIP-Wheat, 2020), and all the data are available on the data repository of Zenodo (doi: 10.5281/zenodo.4027033). Two scientific publications have been published based on some of these data here.
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Safe and just Earth system boundaries (2023)
    In:  Nature
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked[1,2,3], yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently[4,5]. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)[4]. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.
    Description: Abstract Main Quantifying ESBs Toward a safe and just future Methods Data availability Code availability References Acknowledgements Funding Author information Ethics declarations Peer review Additional information Extended data figures and tables
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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