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  • 2020-2022  (1,822)
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  • 101
    Publication Date: 2021-05-18
    Description: In the Paris Accord to the UN Climate Change Conference COP21 in 2015, the international community agreed to "make every effort" to reach a significant reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to limit global average temperature rise to preferably 1.5°C by 2100 (UNFCC 2018). A transition to a climate-friendly energy supply, however, would come largely at the expense of coal - a fossil fuel with large global reserves that are also widely dispersed regionally. Therefore, especially since the turn of the millennium, the question has been raised as to how coal could be used in a climate-friendly way in the future. So far, the only way to do this is to apply CCS technology or CCU. CCS involves the capture of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel-fired power plants or industrial sources and its storage underground, such as in deep saline aquifers or in depleted oil and natural gas fields, or their use for enhanced oil or gas recovery (EOR/EGR). When carbon capture and utilisation (CCU) is applied, the CO2 is further used, for example as feedstock for the production of durable plastics. Due to the relatively low potential of CCU compared to CCS (IPCC 2005), only CCS is considered in this thesis. The majority of studies and roadmaps have discussed CCS as a technology option that could make a significant contribution to achieving the objective of decreasing GHG emissions for many years (IPCC 2014a, 2018). Particularly in the power sector, however, these expectations have not yet been met. As of November 2019, worldwide only two small base-load power plants, capturing a total of 2.4 Mt CO2/year and mainly using it for EOR, are in operation, together with a few pilots in industrial applications and, in particular, natural gas processing (in total 30 Mt CO2/year) (Global CCS Institute 2019). Early on, it became clear that the predicted high deployment targets and their underlying studies should be critically questioned for various reasons. Particularly due to the lack of a systems-analytical evaluation of this technology (which was relatively new at the time), no reliable answers could be given about the ecological, economic, social and structural effects of its large-scale application. Such analyses are, however, a pre-condition for comprehensively classifying the contribution of a new technology as a promising option for a sustainable energy supply system and assessing it in comparison to other technologies. To address these challenges, several studies, most of which initiated by the author, were conducted on this topic between 2004 and 2018. The resulting papers became the basis for this thesis.
    Keywords: ddc:620
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: doctoralthesis , doc-type:doctoralThesis
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  • 102
    Publication Date: 2021-05-21
    Description: This article aims to analyse the potential for international climate governance to promote the decarbonisation of land transport. It first summarises challenges and barriers that impede the transformation of the sector. On this basis, the article discusses how international governance could potentially assist with overcoming these barriers and mobilising potentials. Subsequently, the article analyses to what extent existing international governance institutions deliver on the potential identified. The analysis finds that while there is a large number of international institutions trying to promote the decarbonisation of land transport, none of them emerge saliently as hubs or core institutions. There is a substantial amount of activity to generate and disseminate knowledge and learning, but the potential for providing guidance and signal, setting rules, providing transparency/accountability and means of implementation could be further exploited. The article concludes with suggestions on how international governance may be strengthened.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 103
    Publication Date: 2021-03-04
    Description: The ongoing warming of the Earth's atmosphere is projected to cause a northward shift of species' distributions, as they track their climatic optimum. In the rapidly warming Arctic, this has already led to an increase of shrubs in tundra ecosystems. While this northern expansion of woody biomass has been studied relatively extensively over the last decade, little research has been devoted to shrub growth responses at the southern margins of Northern Hemisphere shrubs. Here, we studied shoot length growth, its responses to climate over the period 2010-2017, and differences in leaf C and N content of the evergreen dwarf shrub Empetrum nigrum, as well as the vegetation composition and soil parameters at four sites located along a gradient of increasing dune age on the island Spiekeroog, northern Germany. The sites are located in the tri-national UNESCO world heritage site, the Wadden Sea. E. nigrum has a predominantly circum-arctic-boreal distribution and its southern distribution margin in European lowlands runs through northern Germany, where it is retreating northwards. We found a negative response to autumn (surface) temperatures and previous summer surface temperatures and/or a positive response to summer precipitation of E. nigrum growth, except at the oldest dune with the strongest E. nigrum dominance. Growth rates and plant species diversity declined with dune age. Our results suggest that E. nigrum growth is drought sensitive at its European southern range margin. We hypothesize that this sensitivity may form the basis for its northward retreat, which is supported by recent observations of E. nigrum dieback in Germany after the extreme drought in 2018 and model projections.
    Keywords: ddc:580
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 104
    Publication Date: 2021-05-18
    Description: Climate change is a transformation challenge. It requires the transformation of a patchwork of independent socio-technical systems. These complex systems have their own specific challenges and path dependencies. Lukas Hermwille introduces a perspective on socio-technical complexity to the study of global climate governance and asks what governance arrangements on the international level, in particular the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Paris Agreement, can offer to facilitate and foster the required transformational change. His work shows the importance of the discursive power of global climate governance, shifting the expectations and visions of the future of key actors and, as a corollary, changing their investment decisions of today towards a more sustainable future.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: doctoralthesis , doc-type:doctoralThesis
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  • 105
    Publication Date: 2021-05-06
    Description: Electric mobility is beginning to enter East African cities. This paper aims to investigate what policy-level solutions and stakeholder constellations are established in the context of electric mobility (e-mobility) in Dar es Salaam, Kigali, Kisumu and Nairobi and in which ways they attempt to tackle the implementation of electric mobility solutions. The study employs two key methods including content analysis of policy and programmatic documents and interviews based on a purposive sampling approach with stakeholders involved in mobility transitions. The study findings point out that in spite of the growing number of policies (specifically in Rwanda and Kenya) and on-the-ground developments, a set of financial and technical barriers persists. These include high upfront investment costs in vehicles and infrastructure, as well as perceived lack of competitiveness with fossil fuel vehicles that constrain the uptake of e-mobility initiatives. The study further indicates that transport operators and their representative associations are less recognized as major players in the transition, far behind new e-mobility players (start-ups) and public authorities. This study concludes by identifying current gaps that need to be tackled by policymakers and stakeholders in order to implement inclusive electric mobility in East African cities, considering modalities that include transport providers and address their financial constraints.
    Keywords: ddc:380
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 106
    Publication Date: 2021-05-06
    Description: Agriculture is an economic sector with massive impact on biodiversity and agrobiodiversity. Sustainable diets represent a critical policy leverage and a realistic opportunity to reduce the environmental impact of the agro-food sector while improving human health at the same time. Eating out is an increasingly common habit for many consumers and, by offering sustainable dishes, catering companies can play a central role. To do this, they need to understand and correctly assess the sustainability of their food portfolio, but assessment tools are not well established yet. The NAHGAST project, of which this study was part, developed and tested a sustainability assessment tool for catering companies based on concrete targets defined per meal. This study addresses the lack of methods to evaluate the impact of food on biodiversity, with a particular focus on agrobiodiversity. The work illustrates a context-specific application of an enhanced DPSIR model to structure information and select indicators, and proposes a transdisciplinary use of existing metrics. Further research is needed in order to define scientifically sound target values or sustainability ranges for each indicator per meal, in order to calculate them. Strengths and limits of the study are discussed.
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 107
    Publication Date: 2021-05-18
    Description: Non-residential buildings in the European Union consume more than one third of the building sector's total. Many non-residential buildings are owned by municipalities. This paper reports about an energy saving competition that was carried out in 91 municipal buildings in eight EU member states in 2019. For each public building an energy team was formed. The energy teams' activities encompassed motivating changes in the energy use behaviour of employees and small investments. Two challenges added an element of gamification to the energy saving competition. To assess the success of the energy saving competition, an energy performance baseline was calculated using energy consumption data of each public building from previous years. Energy consumption in the competition year was monitored on a monthly base. After the competition the top energy savers from each country were determined by the percentage-based reduction of energy consumption compared to the baseline. On average, the buildings had an electricity and heat consumption in 2019 that was about 8 % and 7 %, respectively, lower than the baseline. As an additional data source for the evaluation, a survey among energy team members was conducted at the beginning and after the energy competition. Support from superiors, employee interest and motivation and behaviour change as assessed by energy team members show a positive, if weak or moderate, correlation with changes in electricity consumption, but not with changes in heat consumption.
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 108
    Publication Date: 2021-05-10
    Description: Nowadays, high expectations are set for a digitally enabled circular economy (CE), to enhance resource efficiency. Tracing, tracking, and storing information is most important for this. In this paper, the application of Internet of Things (IoT) and Distributed Ledger Technology (Blockchain) are hence discussed by presenting the case of professional Electrical and Electronic Equipment (EEE) in Italy. Within the context of CE, prevention of electronic waste (WEEE) is extremely relevant as it is a fast-growing waste stream, and the products contain environmentally damaging substances as well as valuable and rare materials. The use of a proper combination of IoT and blockchain can help the producers to keep control on products until EEE end-of-life, while promoting CE strategies and supporting decision-making. Based on the outcomes of five interviews conducted in 2019 to companies of the EEE sector, potential improvements in the EEE end-of-use management are discussed. After providing the definition of requirements for both the technical solution and its testing are provided, three solution variations and the related business models are created and presented, as well as considerations on their environmental and economic impacts. The study shows how digital technologies can support the appropriate and circular management of EEE products and WEEE.
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 109
    Publication Date: 2021-05-06
    Description: Electronics containing growing quantities of high value and critical metals are increasingly used in automobiles. The conventional treatment practice for end-of-life vehicles (ELV) is shredding after de-pollution and partial separation of spare parts. Despite opportunities for resource recovery, the selective separation of components containing relevant amounts of critical metals for the purpose of material recycling is not commonly implemented. This article is aimed to contribute to recycling strategies for future critical metal quantities and the role of extended material recovery from ELVs. The study examines the economic feasibility of dismantling electronic components from ELVs for high value metal recycling. The results illustrate the effects of factors as dismantling time, labour costs and logistics on the economic potential of resource recovery from ELVs. Manual dismantling is profitable for only a few components at the higher labour costs in western/northern parts of Europe and applicable material prices, including the inverter for hybrid vehicles, oxygen sensor, side assistant sensor, distance and near distance sensors. Depending on the vehicle model, labour costs and current material prices, manual dismantling can also be cost-efficient for also some other such as the heating blower, generator, starter, engine and transmission control, start/stop motor, drive control, infotainment and chassis control.
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 110
    Publication Date: 2021-07-05
    Description: Citizen science is a transdisciplinary approach that responds to the current science policy agenda: in terms of supporting open science, and by using a range of science communication instruments. In particular, it opens up scientific research processes by involving citizens at different phases; this also creates a range of opportunities for science communication to happen This article explores methodological and practical characteristics of citizen science as a form of science communication by examining three case studies that took different approaches to citizens' participation in science. Through these, it becomes clear that communication in citizen science is "always" science communication and an essential part of "doing science".
    Keywords: ddc:300
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 111
    Publication Date: 2021-05-21
    Description: This article develops a sectoral approach to the analysis of global climate governance. This approach advances the assessment of global climate governance by focusing on complexes of intergovernmental and transnational institutions co-governing key socio-technical sectoral systems. The actual and potential contribution of these sectoral institutional complexes to advancing decarbonization can be assessed according to five key governance functions: (1) providing guidance and signal to actors, (2) setting rules to facilitate collective action, (3) enhancing transparency and accountability, (4) offering support (finance, technology, capacity-building), and (5) promoting knowledge and learning. On this basis, we can assess the potential of international cooperation to address the challenges specific sectoral systems face in the climate transition as well as the extent to which existing sectoral institutional complexes deliver on this potential. This provides a solid starting point for developing options for filling identified gaps and enhancing the effectiveness of global climate governance.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 112
    Publication Date: 2021-07-05
    Description: This chapter turns to the measurement of performance in delivering corporate and ecosystem purposes. The metrics are designed to capture the pain points in the ecosystem that need to be addressed and the success of the intervention in addressing them. This requires measures of non-financial as well as financial performance. The chapter provides an overview of measurements of non-financial forms of capital: natural, human, and social. In examining natural capital, it contrasts input measures that record the amount of natural resources that are used in the production process and output measures that examine the impact of the inputs on products, emissions, waste, etc. It notes that measuring inputs is in general more straightforward than outputs and it therefore argues that natural capital metrics should be constructed around inputs rather than outputs.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 113
    Publication Date: 2021-07-28
    Description: Cities and urban consumers play a central role in the transition to a decarbonized society. Building on existing studies that identify the significant contributions of lifestyle changes, this study proposes a practical methodology for modeling and exploring city-specific carbon footprint reduction pathways through lifestyle changes to decarbonization. It uses an input-output approach with mixed-unit consumption data and the concept of adoption rates, which is applicable to multiple cities with widely available subnational household consumption data. This paper illustrates the use of this methodology by exploring the consumption-based mitigation pathways of 52 Japanese cities with 65 lifestyle change options covering mobility, housing, food, consumer goods, and leisure domains. The results revealed that city-specific impacts of a variety of lifestyle change options can differ by as much as a factor of five among cities, even in the urban context within the same country. Due to this city-level heterogeneity, the priority options of decarbonized lifestyles, such as among shared mobility, low-carbon diets, and longevity of consumer goods, have shifted between cities. The analysis suggests that ambitious urban lifestyle changes can potentially reduce their carbon footprints to meet the 1.5 ℃ target. However, due to the overlaps of mitigation potentials between multiple lifestyle change options, the necessary levels of adoption and coverage are extensive (i.e., adoption rates of 0.6-0.9). Importantly, adopting lifestyle changes with an efficiency strategy (e.g., the introduction of end-use technologies) or sufficiency strategy (e.g., behavioral changes in consumption amounts and modes) alone is not enough; the only way to succeed is through the combination of both strategies. This paper calls for a target-based exploration and identification of city-specific priorities of lifestyle change options to facilitate consumption-oriented mitigation policies and stakeholder actions to address the climate impacts of urban consumption.
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 114
    Publication Date: 2021-07-28
    Description: This paper examines the Global Climate Action Agenda (GCAA) and discusses options to improve sub- and non-state involvement in post-2020 climate governance. A framework that stimulates sub- and non-state action is a necessary complement to national governmental action, as the latter falls short of achieving low-carbon and climate-resilient development as envisaged in the Paris Agreement. Applying design principles for an ideal-type orchestration framework, we review literature and gather expert judgements to assess whether the GCAA has been collaborative, comprehensive, evaluative and catalytic. Results show that there has been greater coordination among orchestrators, for instance in the organization of events. However, mobilization efforts remain event-driven and too little effort is invested in understanding the progress of sub- and non-state action. Data collection has improved, although more sophisticated indicators are needed to evaluate climate and sustainable development impacts. Finally, the GCAA has recorded more action, but relatively little by actors in developing countries. As the world seeks to recover from the COVID-19 crisis and enters a new decade of climate action, the GCAA could make a vital contribution in challenging times by helping governments keep and enhance climate commitments; strengthening capacity for sub- and non-state action; enabling accountability; and realizing sustainable development.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 115
    Publication Date: 2021-08-06
    Description: Energy sufficiency is one of the three energy sustainability strategies, next to energy efficiency and renewable energies. We analyse to what extent European governments follow this strategy, by conducting a systematic document analysis of all available European National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) and Long-Term Strategies (LTSs). We collect and categorise a total of 230 sufficiency-related policy measures, finding large differences between countries. We find most sufficiency policies in the transport sector, when classifying also modal shift policies to change the service quality of transport as sufficiency policies. Types of sufficiency policy instruments vary considerably from sector to sector, for instance the focus on financial incentives and fiscal instruments in the mobility sector, information in the building sector, and financial incentive/tax instruments in cross-sectoral application. Regulatory instruments currently play a minor role for sufficiency policy in the national energy and climate plans of EU member states. Similar to energy efficiency in recent decades, sufficiency still largely referred to as micro-level individual behaviour change or necessary exogenous trends that will need to take place. It is not treated yet as a genuine field of policy action to provide the necessary framework for enabling societal change.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 116
    Publication Date: 2021-05-21
    Description: This concluding article derives six major findings from the contributions to this special issue. First, the barriers and challenges to decarbonisation vary significantly across sectoral systems. Second, and similarly, the need and potential for the five functions of international governance institutions to contribute to effective climate protection also vary widely. Third, while the pattern is uneven, there is a general undersupply of international climate governance. Fourth, the sectoral analyses confirm that the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement play an important overarching role but remain limited in advancing effective sectoral governance. Fifth, while non-environmental institutions may present important barriers to decarbonisation, more synergistic effects are possible. Sixth, our sectoral approach provides a sound basis on which to identify sector-specific policy options. The paper then offers reflections on the merits and limitations of the sectoral approach, before identifying avenues for future research to further advance the agenda.
    Keywords: ddc:320
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 117
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    Manno : University of Applied Sciences and Arts of Southern Switzerland
    Publication Date: 2021-05-21
    Description: To what extent can designers direct their professional practices towards serving the common good? Design constitutes itself anew with every project. Each project is both conditioned and made possible through a unique constellation of actors, timeframes, objectives, skills, etc. which arise from both social values and political agendas. We discuss the different approaches of two selected design projects by the authors, and the respective strategies and methods. While the designers' ambition in both projects was certainly to change an existing situation into a preferred one - the first by the means of interactive user engagement, the second through the idea of semi-finished product semantics - we emphasize on the challenges and ambiguities arising from the evolutionary process of design, aiming at the common good. Eventually we conclude that design processes can serve as a tool to debate rather than create the common good.
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 118
    Publication Date: 2021-05-06
    Description: Flexible, system-oriented operating strategies are becoming increasingly important in terms of achieving a climate-neutral energy system transformation. Solid-oxide electrolysis (SOEC) can play an important role in the production of green synthesis gas from renewable energy in the future. Therefore, it is important to investigate the extent to which SOEC can be used flexibly and which feedback effects and constraints must be taken into account. In this study, we derived a specific load profile from an energy turnaround scenario that supports the energy system. SOEC short-stacks were operated and we investigated the impact that the load profile has on electrical stack performance and stack degradation as well as the product gas composition by means of Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy. The stacks could follow the grid-related requirement profiles of secondary control power and minute reserves very well with transition times of less than two minutes per 25% of relative power. Only short-term disturbances of the H2/CO ratio were observed during transitions due to the adjustment of feed gases. No elevated degradation effects resulting from flexible operation were apparent over 1300 h, although other causes of degradation were present.
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 119
    Publication Date: 2021-05-06
    Description: Local implementation projects for sector coupling play an important role in the transformation to a more sustainable energy system. Despite various technical possibilities, there are various barriers to the realisation of local projects. Against this backdrop, we introduce an inter- and transdisciplinary approach to identifying and evaluating different power-to-X paths as well as setting up robust local implementation projects, which account for existing drivers and potential hurdles early on. After developing the approach conceptually, we exemplify our elaborations by applying them to a use case in the German city of Wuppertal. It can be shown that a mix of several interlinked interdisciplinary methods as well as several participatory elements is suitable for triggering a collective, local innovation process. However, the timing and extent of end-user integration remain a balancing act. The paper does not focus on a detailed description of power-to-X (PtX) as a central pillar of the sustainable transformation of the energy system. Rather, it focuses on the innovative methodological approach used to select a suitable use path and design a corresponding business model. The research approach was successfully implemented in the specific case study. However, it also becomes clear that the local-specific consideration entails limitations with regard to the transferability of the research design to other spatial contexts.
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 120
    Publication Date: 2021-03-04
    Description: Science and education are central fields and a lever for sustainable development. With the newly developed student teaching and learning format "Transformative Innovation Lab" - TIL for short - students are to be enabled to conduct independent transformative research. To this end, the researchers, under the direction of the Wuppertal Institute, developed and tested the new learning concept in the project "Development, testing and dissemination of new qualification offers for 'change agents' for transformative learning using the real-world laboratory approach" (EEVA). The detailed results and numerous implementation tips have been published in a practical handbook aimed at academic teaching staff and other multipliers.
    Keywords: ddc:300
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 121
    Publication Date: 2021-05-18
    Description: We conduct a systematic, interdisciplinary review of empirical literature assessing evidence on induced innovation in energy and related technologies. We explore links between demand-drivers (both market-wide and targeted); indicators of innovation (principally, patents); and outcomes (cost reduction, efficiency, and multi-sector/macro consequences). We build on existing reviews in different fields and assess over 200 papers containing original data analysis. Papers linking drivers to patents, and indicators of cumulative capacity to cost reductions (experience curves), dominate the literature. The former does not directly link patents to outcomes; the latter does not directly test for the causal impact of on cost reductions). Diverse other literatures provide additional evidence concerning the links between deployment, innovation activities, and outcomes. We derive three main conclusions. (1) Demand-pull forces enhance patenting; econometric studies find positive impacts in industry, electricity and transport sectors in all but a few specific cases. This applies to all drivers - general energy prices, carbon prices, and targeted interventions that build markets. (2) Technology costs decline with cumulative investment for almost every technology studied across all time periods, when controlled for other factors. Numerous lines of evidence point to dominant causality from at-scale deployment (prior to self-sustaining diffusion) to cost reduction in this relationship. (3) Overall Innovation is cumulative, multi-faceted, and self-reinforcing in its direction (path-dependent). We conclude with brief observations on implications for modeling and policy. In interpreting these results, we suggest distinguishing the economics of active deployment, from more passive diffusion processes, and draw the following implications. There is a role for policy diversity and experimentation, with evaluation of potential gains from innovation in the broadest sense. Consequently, endogenising innovation in large-scale models is important for deriving policy-relevant conclusions. Finally, seeking to relate quantitative economic evaluation to the qualitative socio-technical transitions literatures could be a fruitful area for future research.
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 122
    Publication Date: 2021-07-05
    Description: The data centre industry (DCI) has grown from zero in the 1980s, to enabling 60% of the global population to be connected in 2021 via 7.2 million data centres. The DCI is based on a linear economy and there is an urgent need to transform to a Circular Economy to establish a secure supply chain and ensure an economically stable and uninterrupted service, which is particularly difficult in an industry that is comprised of ten insular subsectors. This paper describes the CEDaCI project which was established to address the challenge in this unique sector; this ground-breaking project employs a whole systems approach, Design Thinking and the Double Diamond methods, which rely on people/stakeholder engagement throughout. The paper reviews and assesses the impact of these methods and project to date, using quantitative and qualitative research, via an online sectoral survey and interviews with nine data centre and IT industry experts. The results show that the project is creating positive impact and initiating change across the sector and that the innovative output (designs, business models, and a digital tool) will ensure that sectoral transformation continues; the project methods and structure will also serve as an exemplar for other sectors.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
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  • 123
    Publication Date: 2021-06-25
    Description: Transport is a key economic sector in Europe, it influences the opportunities of production and consumption. By improving access to markets, goods and services, employment, housing, health care, and education, transportation projects can increase economic productivity and development. The ability to be mobile is also a prerequisite for inclusion. At the same time, transport induces a range of negative effects, most notably the emission of greenhouse gases. At the urban level, motorised transport significantly contributes to air pollution. Since 2013, the European Commission has increased EU funding for projects: The "Urban Mobility Package" provided EUR 13 billion for investments into sustainable urban mobility between 2014 and 2020. This has allowed cities across Europe to put in place a range of initiatives. European funding programmes and financing institutions such as the European Investment Bank increasingly insist on a contribution to more sustainable mobility systems in their financing commitments. The impact, however, is mixed. The European Court of Auditors warned that EU cities must shift more traffic to sustainable transport modes. They found that EU-funded projects were not always based on sound urban mobility strategies and were not as effective as intended. In many EU member states, the transfer of EU funds to cities is contingent on the existence of a SUMP. A statistical analysis of the modal split of 396 cities in the European Union revealed that the implementation of Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans positively correlates with a reduction of the share of the private car in the cities. Such plans include strategies and activities to pursue sustainable mobility. This report analyses transport and mobility in Bratislava with a view to providing a clear picture about its current sustainability state. It points to both good practice and areas of improvement. In so doing, it provides recommendations how mobility in the city can be developed increasingly sustainable. Bratislava is the capital and largest city of Slovakia. In 2016, the population of the city was 426,000 inhabitants, the Bratislava region was home to 642,000 inhabitants.
    Keywords: ddc:380
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
    Type: report , doc-type:report
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  • 124
    Publication Date: 2021-07-05
    Description: Cross-country evidence on the adoption of energy-efficient retrofit measures (EERMs) in residential buildings is critical to supporting the development of national and pan-European policies aimed at fostering the energy performance upgrade of the building stock. In this light, the aim of this paper is to advance in the understanding of the probability of certain EERMs taking place in eight EU countries, according to a set of parameters, such as building typology, project types, and motivation behind the project. Using these parameters collected via a multi-country online survey, a set of discrete-choice (conditional logit) models are estimated on the probability of selecting a choice of any combination of 33 EERMs across the sampled countries. Results show that actions related to the building envelope are the most often-addressed across countries and single building elements or technology measures have a higher probability of being implemented. The modelling framework developed in this study contributes to the scientific community in three ways: (1) establishing an empirical relationship among EERMs and project (i.e., retrofit and deep retrofit), (2) identifying commonalities and differences across the selected countries, and (3) quantifying the probabilities and market shares of various EERMs.
    Keywords: ddc:600
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: English
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  • 125
    Publication Date: 2021-11-03
    Description: Semi-enclosed marginal seas like the Baltic Sea are often characterized by permanently anoxic deep layers, and may therefore serve as important model systems to study the causes and consequences of the predicted global expansion of oxygen minimum zones. Here, we focus on the role of lateral intrusions in maintaining the “hypoxic transition zone” (HTZ) of the Baltic Sea, which characterizes the quasi-permanent hypoxic region located between the oxygenized surface layer and the sulfidic deep-water region. Based on long-term deployments of an autonomous profiling system in the central Baltic Sea, we show that oxic mid-water intrusions are ubiquitous features, providing the most important oxygen source for the HTZ, and largely control the vertical and lateral extent of the hypoxic areas. An oxygen budget for the HTZ suggests that oxygen turnover in the HTZ is, to first order, determined by a long-term balance between sedimentary oxygen demand and oxygen import by intrusions. The downward mixing of oxygen into the HTZ is generally non-negligible but unlikely to provide a first-order contribution to the HTZ oxygen budget. On the long-term average, mid-water intrusions were shown to inject 30–60 Gmol of oxygen per year into the deep-water region below the permanent halocline. This is approximately one order of magnitude larger than the average amount of oxygen imported during the massive deep-water inflow events (Major Baltic Inflows) that occur on an approximately decadal time scale, highlighting the HTZ as a hotspot for biogeochemical turnover.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; Baltic Sea ; hydrography ; hypoxic transistion zone (HTZ) ; biogeochemical turnover
    Language: English
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  • 126
    Publication Date: 2021-11-03
    Description: More than half of the world's large rivers flow towards the ocean crossing passive continental margins. Here using an analytical solution and numerical models, we demonstrate that on passive margins, river basins may be integrated by major margin-parallel channels, which form as a flexural isostatic response of the lithosphere to mechanical/erosional unloading along the margin. We analyzed the downstream courses of large rivers flowing across the passive margins and find that the majority of them (31 of 36) have major margin-parallel channels. Occurrences of these channels are generally consistent with the model predictions, although the exact locations and geometry of these rivers may also be controlled/changed by other factors. Our results suggest that the lithosphere strength has an important control on the geometry of large river systems on passive margins, linking the evolution and routing of the Earth's freshwater systems to its deep interior dynamics.
    Keywords: 551.4 ; passive margins ; axial river formation ; isostatic control ; lithosphere rigidigy ; numerical modeling
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  • 127
    Publication Date: 2021-11-03
    Description: Stable organic carbon and nitrogen isotopes can be used to interpret past vegetation patterns and ecosystem qualities. Here we present these proxies for two loess-palaeosol sequences from the southern Carpathian Basin to reconstruct the palaeoenvironment during the past 350 ka and establish regional commonalities and differences. Until now, isotopic studies on loess sequences from this region were only conducted on deposits from the last glacial cycle. We conducted methodological tests concerning the complete decalcification of the samples prior to stable isotope analyses. Two decalcification methods (fumigation method and wet chemical acidification), different treatment times, and the reproducibility of carbon isotope analyses were tested. Obtained results indicate that the choice of the decalcification method is essential for organic carbon stable isotope analyses of loess-palaeosol sequences because ratios vary by more than 10‰ between the wet chemical and fumigation methods, due to incomplete carbonate removal by the latter. Therefore, we suggest avoiding the fumigation method for studies on loess-palaeosol sequences. In addition, our data show that samples with TOC content 〈0.2% bear increased potential for misinterpretation of their carbon isotope ratios. For our sites, C3-vegetation is predominant and no palaeoenvironmental shifts leading to a change of the dominant photosynthesis pathway can be detected during the Middle to Late Pleistocene. Furthermore, the potential for further stable nitrogen isotope studies is highlighted, since this proxy seems to reflect especially past precipitation patterns and reveals favourable conditions in the southern Carpathian Basin, especially during interstadials.
    Keywords: 551 ; southern Carpathian Basin ; loess-palaeosol sequences ; stable isotope analyses ; Pleistocene ecosystem reconstruction
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  • 128
    Publication Date: 2021-11-03
    Description: In Antarctic and Subantarctic environments, 14C-based age determination is often challenging due to unknown reservoir effects, low organic carbon contents of sediments, and high contributions of petrogenic (14C-free) carbon in ice marginal settings. In this study, we evaluate possible benefits and challenges of compound-specific radiocarbon analysis (CSRA) as a tool for age determination of marine Antarctic and Subantarctic sediment sequences. We present a comprehensive data set of 14C ages obtained on bulk organic carbon, carbonates, and on fatty acids (FA) from three coastal marine sediment cores from Subantarctic South Georgia and East Antarctica. Low molecular weight (LMW) FA represent the least 14C-depleted fraction, indicating that the phytoplankton-derived compounds can be a means of dating sediments. In contrast, vascular plant-derived high molecular weight FA are systematically depleted in 14C relative to the low molecular weight homologues, reflecting processes such as soil formation/erosion in the catchment. Comparative age-depth models show significant differences, depending on the material used for the respective models. While the land plant-derived FA may lead to an overestimation of the actual sediment age, LMW FA reveal complex aquatic reservoir effects. Bulk sedimentary organic carbon 14C ages likely provide appropriate age estimates in settings with low petrogenic carbon input in the Antarctic, whereas CSRA has the potential to produce improved age control in settings with high contributions of petrogenic carbon.
    Keywords: 551 ; Antarctica ; marine sediments ; compound‐specific radiocarbon analysis (CSRA)
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  • 129
    Publication Date: 2021-11-03
    Description: Gelatinous zooplankton can be present in high biomass and taxonomic diversity in planktonic oceanic food webs, yet the trophic structuring and importance of this “jelly web” remain incompletely understood. To address this knowledge gap, we provide a holistic trophic characterization of a jelly web in the eastern tropical Atlantic, based on δ13C and δ15N stable isotope analysis of a unique gelatinous zooplankton sample set. The jelly web covered most of the isotopic niche space of the entire planktonic oceanic food web, spanning 〉 3 trophic levels, ranging from herbivores (e.g., pyrosomes) to higher predators (e.g., ctenophores), highlighting the diverse functional roles and broad possible food web relevance of gelatinous zooplankton. Among gelatinous zooplankton taxa, comparisons of isotopic niches pointed to the presence of differentiation and resource partitioning, but also highlighted the potential for competition, e.g., between hydromedusae and siphonophores. Significant differences in spatial (seamount vs. open ocean) and depth-resolved patterns (0–400 m vs. 400–1000 m) pointed to additional complexity, and raise questions about the extent of connectivity between locations and differential patterns in vertical coupling between gelatinous zooplankton groups. Added complexity also resulted from inconsistent patterns in trophic ontogenetic shifts among groups. We conclude that the broad trophic niche covered by the jelly web, patterns in niche differentiation within this web, and substantial complexity at the spatial, depth, and taxon level call for a more careful consideration of gelatinous zooplankton in oceanic food web models. In light of climate change and fishing pressure, the data presented here also provide a valuable baseline against which to measure future trophic observations of gelatinous zooplankton communities in the eastern tropical Atlantic.
    Keywords: 577.7 ; eastern tropical Atlantic ; gelatinous zooplankton ; isotopic pattern ; food web characterization
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  • 130
    Publication Date: 2021-11-03
    Description: Numerical models are a suitable tool to quantify impacts of predicted climate change on complex ecosystems but are rarely used to study effects on benthic macroalgal communities. Fucus vesiculosus L. is a habitat-forming macroalga in the Baltic Sea and alarming shifts from the perennial Fucus community to annual filamentous algae are reported. We developed a box model able to simulate the seasonal growth of the Baltic Fucus–grazer–epiphyte system. This required the implementation of two state variables for Fucus biomass in units of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N). Model equations describe relevant physiological and ecological processes, such as storage of C and N assimilates by Fucus, shading effects of epiphytes or grazing by herbivores on both Fucus and epiphytes, but with species-specific rates and preferences. Parametrizations of the model equations and required initial conditions were based on measured parameters and process rates in the near-natural Kiel Outdoor Benthocosm (KOB) experiments during the Biological Impacts of Ocean Acidification project. To validate the model, we compared simulation results with observations in the KOB experiment that lasted from April 2013 until March 2014 under ambient and climate-change scenarios, that is, increased atmospheric temperature and partial pressure of carbon dioxide. The model reproduced the magnitude and seasonal cycles of Fucus growth and other processes in the KOBs over 1 yr under different scenarios. Now having established the Fucus model, it will be possible to better highlight the actual threat of climate change to the Fucus community in the shallow nearshore waters of the Baltic Sea.
    Keywords: 577.7 ; Baltic sea ; benthic macroalgal communities ; Fucus growth ; biotic and biotic interactions
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  • 131
    Publication Date: 2021-11-03
    Description: The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission ended its operation in October 2017, and the GRACE Follow-On mission was launched only in May 2018, leading to approximately 1 year of data gap. Given that GRACE-type observations are exclusively providing direct estimates of total water storage change (TWSC), it would be very important to bridge the gap between these two missions. Furthermore, for many climate-related applications, it is also desirable to reconstruct TWSC prior to the GRACE period. In this study, we aim at comparing different data-driven methods and identifying the more robust alternatives for predicting GRACE-like gridded TWSC during the gap and reconstructing them to 1992 using climate inputs. To this end, we first develop a methodological framework to compare different methods such as the multiple linear regression (MLR), artificial neural network (ANN), and autoregressive exogenous (ARX) approaches. Second, metrics are developed to measure the robustness of the predictions. Finally, gridded TWSC within 26 regions are predicted and reconstructed using the identified methods. Test computations suggest that the correlation of predicted TWSC maps with observed ones is more than 0.3 higher than TWSC simulated by hydrological models, at the grid scale of 1° resolution. Furthermore, the reconstructed TWSC correctly reproduce the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals. In general, while MLR does not perform best in the training process, it is more robust and could thus be a viable approach both for filling the GRACE gap and for reconstructing long-period TWSC fields globally when combined with statistical decomposition techniques.
    Keywords: 551.48 ; GRACE ; total water storage change ; predidicting method
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  • 132
    Publication Date: 2021-10-28
    Description: Submarine permafrost is perennially cryotic earth material that lies offshore. Most submarine permafrost is relict terrestrial permafrost beneath the Arctic shelf seas, was inundated after the last glaciation, and has been warming and thawing ever since. As a reservoir and confining layer for gas hydrates, it has the potential to release greenhouse gasses and impact coastal infrastructure, but its distribution and rate of thaw are poorly constrained by observational data. Lengthening summers, reduced sea ice extent and increased solar heating will increase water temperatures and thaw rates. Observations of gas release from the East Siberian shelf and high methane concentrations in the water column and air above it have been attributed to flowpaths created in thawing permafrost. In this context, it is important to understand the distribution and state of submarine permafrost and how they are changing. We assemble recent and historical drilling data on regional submarine permafrost degradation rates and review recent studies that use modelling, geophysical mapping and geomorphology to characterize submarine permafrost. Implications for submarine permafrost thawing are discussed within the context of methane cycling in the Arctic Ocean and global climate change.
    Keywords: 551.38 ; Arctic ; offshore ; submarine permafrost ; subsea ; thaw rates
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  • 133
    Publication Date: 2021-10-28
    Description: It is widely assumed that the ventilation of the Southern Ocean played a crucial role in driving glacial-interglacial atmospheric CO2 levels. So far, however, ventilation records from the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean are widely missing. Here we present reconstructions of water residence times (depicted as ΔΔ14C and Δδ13C) for the last 32,000 years on sediment records from the Kerguelen Plateau and the Conrad Rise (~570- to 2,500-m water depth), along with simulated changes in ocean stratification from a transient climate model experiment. Our data indicate that Circumpolar Deep Waters in the Indian Ocean were part of the glacial carbon pool. At our sites, close to or bathed by upwelling deep waters, we find two pulses of decreasing ΔΔ14C and δ13C values (~21–17 ka; ~15–12 ka). Both transient pulses precede a similar pattern in downstream intermediate waters in the tropical Indian Ocean as well as rising atmospheric CO2 values. These findings suggest that 14C-depleted, CO2-rich Circumpolar Deep Water from the Indian Ocean contributed to the rise in atmospheric CO2 during Heinrich Stadial 1 and also the Younger Dryas and that the southern Indian Ocean acted as a gateway for sequestered carbon to the atmosphere and tropical intermediate waters.
    Keywords: 551 ; radiocarbon ; ventilation ; Southern Ocean ; Younger Dryas ; carbon cycle ; Indian Ocean
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  • 134
    Publication Date: 2021-10-28
    Description: There is a converging body of evidence supporting a measurable slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as climate warms and Northern Hemisphere ice sheets inexorably shrink. Within this context, we assess the variability of the AMOC during the Holocene based on a marine sediment core retrieved from the deep northwest Atlantic, which sensitively recorded large-scale deglacial transitions in deep water circulation. While there is a diffuse notion of Holocene variability in Labrador and Nordic Seas overturning, we report a largely invariable deep water circulation for the last ~11,000 years, even during the meltwater pulse associated with the 8.2-ka event. Sensitivity tests along with high-resolution 231Pa/230Th data constrain the duration and the magnitude of possible Holocene AMOC variations. The generally constant baseline during the Holocene suggests attenuated natural variability of the large-scale AMOC on submillennial timescales and calls for compensating effects involving the upstream components of North Atlantic Deep Water.
    Keywords: 551 ; AMOC ; Holocene ; high resolution 231Pa/230Th ; Bermuda Rise ; sensitivity tests
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  • 135
    Publication Date: 2021-10-28
    Description: The role of spawning salmonids in altering river bed morphology and sediment transport is significant, yet poorly understood. This is due, in large part, to limitations in monitoring the redd-building process in a continuous and spatially extended way. A complementary approach may be provided through the use of a small seismic sensor network analysing the ground motion signals generated by the agitation of sediment during the redd-building process. We successfully tested the viability of this approach by detecting and locating artificially generated redd signals in a reach of the Mashel River, Washington State, USA. We then utilize records of 17 seismic stations, in which we automatically detected seismic events that were subsequently manually checked, yielding a catalogue of 45 potential redd-building events. Such redd-building events typically lasted between 1 and 20 min and consisted of a series of clusters of 50–100 short energetic pulses in the 20–60 Hz frequency range. The majority (〉90%) of these redd-building events occurred within 11 days, predominantly during the early morning and late afternoon. The seismically derived locations of the signals were in agreement with independently mapped redds. Improved network geometry and installation conditions are required for more efficient detection, robust location and improved energetic insights into redd-building processes in larger reaches. The passive and continuous nature of the seismic approach in detecting redds and describing fish behaviour provides a novel tool for fish biologists and fisheries managers, but also for fluvial geomorphologists, interested in quantifying the amount of sediment mobilized by this ecosystem engineer. When complemented with classic approaches, it could allow for a more holistic picture of the kinetics and temporal patterns (at scales from seconds to multiple seasons) of a key phase of salmonid life cycles. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd
    Keywords: 550 ; environmental seismology ; ecosystem engineers ; salmonid spawning ; gravel-bed rivers ; biogeomorphology
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  • 136
    Publication Date: 2021-10-28
    Description: The magnetic equator in the Brazilian region has moved over 1,100 km northward since 1957, passing the geomagnetic observatory Tatuoca (TTB), in northern Brazil, around 2013. We recovered and processed TTB hourly mean values of the geomagnetic field horizontal (H) component from 1957 until 2019, allowing the investigation of long-term changes in the daily variation due to the influence of secular variation, solar activity, season, and lunar phase. The H day-to-day variability and the occurrence of the counter electrojet at TTB were also investigated. Until the 1990s, ionospheric solar quiet currents dominated the quiet-time daily variation at TTB. After 2000, the magnitude of the daily variation became appreciably greater due to the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) contribution. The H seasonal and day-to-day variability increased as the magnetic equator approached, but their amplitudes normalized to the average daily variation remained at similar levels. Meanwhile, the amplitude of the lunar variation, normalized in the same way, increased from 5% to 12%. Within the EEJ region, the occurrence rate of the morning counter electrojet (MCEJ) increased with proximity to the magnetic equator, while the afternoon counter electrojet (ACEJ) did not. EEJ currents derived from CHAMP and Swarm satellite data revealed that the MCEJ rate varies with magnetic latitude within the EEJ region while the ACEJ rate is largely constant. Simulations with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model based on different geomagnetic main field configurations suggest that long-term changes in the geomagnetic daily variation at TTB can be attributed to the main field secular variation.
    Keywords: 538.7 ; geomagnetism ; space physics ; geomagnetic daily variation ; solar quiet currents ; equatorial electrojet ; equatorial ionosphere
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  • 137
    Publication Date: 2021-10-28
    Description: The presence of gas hydrates (GHs) increases the stiffness and strength of marine sediments. In elasto-plastic constitutive models, it is common to consider GH saturation (Sh) as key internal variable for defining the contribution of GHs to composite soil mechanical behavior. However, the stress-strain behavior of GH-bearing sediments (GHBS) also depends on the microscale distribution of GH and on GH-sediment fabrics. A thorough analysis of GHBS is difficult, because there is no unique relation between Sh and GH morphology. To improve the understanding of stress-strain behavior of GHBS in terms of established soil models, this study summarizes results from triaxial compression tests with different Sh, pore fluids, effective confining stresses, and strain histories. Our data indicate that the mechanical behavior of GHBS strongly depends on Sh and GH morphology, and also on the strain-induced alteration of GH-sediment fabrics. Hardening-softening characteristics of GHBS are strain rate-dependent, which suggests that GH-sediment fabrics dynamically rearrange during plastic yielding events. We hypothesize that rearrangement of GH-sediment fabrics, through viscous deformation or transient dissociation and reformation of GHs, results in kinematic hardening, suppressed softening, and secondary strength recovery, which could potentially mitigate or counteract large-strain failure events. For constitutive modeling approaches, we suggest that strain rate-dependent micromechanical effects from alterations of the GH-sediment fabrics can be lumped into a nonconstant residual friction parameter. We propose simple empirical evolution functions for the mechanical properties and calibrate the model parameters against the experimental data.
    Keywords: 550.78 ; Gas hydrate-bearing sediments ; High-pressure studies ; THCM modelling ; Geomechanics ; Slope stability ; Gas seeps
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  • 138
    Publication Date: 2021-10-28
    Description: In surface waters, the illumination of photoactive engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) with ultraviolet (UV) light triggers the formation of reactive intermediates, consequently altering the ecotoxicological potential of co-occurring organic micropollutants including pesticides due to catalytic degradation. Simultaneously, omnipresent natural organic matter (NOM) adsorbs onto ENM surfaces, altering the ENM surface properties. Also, NOM absorbs light, reducing the photo(cata)lytic transformation of pesticides. Interactions between these environmental factors impact 1) directly the ecotoxicity of photoactive ENMs, and 2) indirectly the degradation of pesticides. We assessed the impact of field-relevant UV radiation (up to 2.6 W UVA/m²), NOM (4 mg TOC/L), and photoactive ENM (nTiO2, 50 µg/L) on the acute toxicity of 6 pesticides in Daphnia magna. We selected azoxystrobin, dimethoate, malathion, parathion, permethrin, and pirimicarb because of their varying photo- and hydrolytic stabilities. Increasing UVA alone partially reduced pesticide toxicity, seemingly due to enhanced degradation. Even at 50 µg/L, nano-sized titanium dioxide (nTiO2) reduced but also increased pesticide toxicity (depending on the applied pesticide), which is attributable to 1) more efficient degradation and potentially 2) photocatalytically induced formation of toxic by-products. Natural organic matter 1) partially reduced pesticide toxicity, not evidently accompanied by enhanced pesticide degradation, but also 2) inhibited pesticide degradation, effectively increasing the pesticide toxicity. Predicting the ecotoxicological potential of pesticides based on their interaction with UV light or interaction with NOM was hardly possible, which was even more difficult in the presence of nTiO2. Environ Toxicol Chem 2020;39:2237–2246. © 2020 The Authors. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.
    Keywords: 363.73 ; Photolysis ; Photocatalysis ; Titanium dioxide ; Pesticide ; UV radiation ; Natural organic matter
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  • 139
    Publication Date: 2021-10-28
    Description: Gelatinous zooplankton (Cnidaria, Ctenophora, and Urochordata, namely, Thaliacea) are ubiquitous members of plankton communities linking primary production to higher trophic levels and the deep ocean by serving as food and transferring “jelly-carbon” (jelly-C) upon bloom collapse. Global biomass within the upper 200 m reaches 0.038 Pg C, which, with a 2–12 months life span, serves as the lower limit for annual jelly-C production. Using over 90,000 data points from 1934 to 2011 from the Jellyfish Database Initiative as an indication of global biomass (JeDI: http://jedi.nceas.ucsb.edu, http://www.bco-dmo.org/dataset/526852), upper ocean jelly-C biomass and production estimates, organism vertical migration, jelly-C sinking rates, and water column temperature profiles from GLODAPv2, we quantitatively estimate jelly-C transfer efficiency based on Longhurst Provinces. From the upper 200 m production estimate of 0.038 Pg C year−1, 59–72% reaches 500 m, 46–54% reaches 1,000 m, 43–48% reaches 2,000 m, 32–40% reaches 3,000 m, and 25–33% reaches 4,500 m. This translates into ~0.03, 0.02, 0.01, and 0.01 Pg C year−1, transferred down to 500, 1,000, 2,000, and 4,500 m, respectively. Jelly-C fluxes and transfer efficiencies can occasionally exceed phytodetrital-based sediment trap estimates in localized open ocean and continental shelves areas under large gelatinous blooms or jelly-C mass deposition events, but this remains ephemeral and transient in nature. This transfer of fast and permanently exported carbon reaching the ocean interior via jelly-C constitutes an important component of the global biological soft-tissue pump, and should be addressed in ocean biogeochemical models, in particular, at the local and regional scale.
    Keywords: 577.1 ; Jelly-C ; carbon ; gelatinous ; zooplankton ; modeling ; transfer efficiency
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  • 140
    Publication Date: 2021-10-28
    Description: Due to seasonal or interannual variability, the relevance of hydrological processes and of the associated model parameters can vary significantly throughout the simulation period. To achieve accurately identified model parameters, temporal variations in parameter dominance should be taken into account. This is not achieved if performance criteria are applied to the entire model output time series. Even when using complementary performance criteria, it is often only possible to identify some of the model parameters precisely. We present an innovative approach to improve parameter identifiability that exploits the information available regarding temporal variations in parameter dominance. Using daily parameter sensitivity time series, we construct a set of sensitivity-weighted performance criteria, one for each parameter, whereby periods of higher dominance of a model parameter and its corresponding process are assigned higher weights in the calculation of the associated performance criterion. These criteria are used to impose constraints on parameter values. We demonstrate this approach by constraining 12 model parameters for three catchments and examine ensemble hydrological simulations generated using these constrained parameter sets. The sensitivity-weighted approach improves in particular the identifiability for parameters whose corresponding processes are dominant only for short periods of time or have strong seasonal patterns. This results overall in slight improvement of model performance for a set of 10 contrasting performance criteria. We conclude that the sensitivity-weighted approach improves the extraction of hydrologically relevant information from data, thereby resulting in improved parameter identifiability and better representation of model parameters.
    Keywords: 551.48 ; parameter identifiability ; parameter constraints ; temporal diagnostic analysis ; sensitivity analysis ; performance criteria
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  • 141
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Tunnel valleys are major features of glaciated margins and they enable meltwater expulsion from underneath a thick ice cover. Their formation is related to the erosion of subglacial sediments by overpressured meltwater and direct glacial erosion. Yet, the impact of pre-existing structures on their formation and morphology remains poorly known. High-quality 3D seismic data allowed the mapping of a large tunnel valley that eroded underlying preglacial delta deposits in the southern North Sea. The valley follows the N–S strike of crestal faults related to a Zechstein salt wall. A change in downstream tunnel valley orientation towards the SE accompanies a change in the strike direction of salt-induced faults. Fault offsets indicate important activity of crestal faults during the deposition of preglacial deltaic sediments. We propose that crestal faults facilitated tunnel valley erosion by acting as high-permeability pathways and allowing subglacial meltwater to reach low-permeability sediments in the underlying Neogene deltaic sequences, ultimately resulting in meltwater overpressure build-up and tunnel valley excavation. Active faults probably also weakened the near-surface sediment to allow a more efficient erosion of the glacial substrate. This control of substrate structures on tunnel valley morphology is considered as a primary factor in subglacial drainage pattern development in the study area.
    Keywords: 551 ; southern North Sea ; Quarternary ; tunnel valley formation ; salt-induced faults
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  • 142
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Soil and lake sediments are important paleoclimate archives often forming a source-sink setting. To better understand magnetic properties in such settings, we studied red soil on low-magnetic bedrock and subrecent sediments of Caohai Lake (CL) in Heqing Basin, China. Red soil is the only important source material for the CL sediments, it is highly magnetic with susceptibilities (χ) of ~10−5 m3/kg. The red soil is dominated by pedogenic nano-magnetite (~10–15 nm) arranged in aggregates of ~100 nm, with particle interaction that causes a wide effective grain size distribution in the superparamagnetic (SP) range tailing into stable single-domain behavior. Transmission electron microscopy and broadband frequency χ(f) suggest partial disintegration of the aggregates and increased alteration of the nanoparticles to hematite during transfer of red soil material to CL. This shifts the domain state behavior to smaller effective magnetic grain sizes, resulting in lower χfd% and χ values, and a characteristic change of χ(f). The SP-stable single-domain distribution of the aggregates in red soil could be climate dependent, and the ratio of saturation remanence to χ is a potential bedrock-specific paleoclimate proxy reflecting it. Magnetic properties of the CL sediments are controlled by an assemblage of nanoparticle aggregates and larger-sized bedrock-derived magnetite. The results challenge the validity of the previous paleoclimate interpretation from the 168-m-long Core-HQ (900–30 ka) in Heqing Basin. Disintegration of aggregates could lead to SP behavior with low χfd% without extinction of individual magnetite nanoparticles, and the χfd%-based assumption of SP magnetite dissolution may be wrong.
    Keywords: 549 ; Heqing Basin ; lake sediments ; red soils ; magnetite ; magnetic signatures
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  • 143
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: The monitoring of water quality, especially of karst springs, requires methods for rapidly estimating and quantifying parameters that indicate contamination. In the last few years, fluorescence-based measurements of tryptophan and humic acid have become a promising tool to assess water quality in near real-time. In this study, we conducted comparative tracer tests in a karst experimental site to investigate the transport properties and behavior of tryptophan and humic acid in a natural karst aquifer. These two tracers were compared with the conservative tracer uranine. Fluorescence measurements were conducted with an online field fluorometer and in the laboratory. The obtained breakthrough curves (BTCs) and the modeling results demonstrate that (1) the online field fluorometer is suitable for real-time fluorescence measurements of all three tracers; (2) the transport parameters obtained for uranine, tryptophan, and humic acid are comparable in the fast flow areas of the karst system; (3) the transport velocities of humic acid are slower and the resulting residence times are accordingly higher, compared to uranine and tryptophan, in the slower and longer flow paths; (4) the obtained BTCs reveal additional information about the investigated karst system. As a conclusion, the experiments show that the transport properties of tryptophan are similar to those of uranine while humic acid is partly transported slower and with retardation. These findings allow a better and quantitative interpretation of the results when these substances are used as natural fecal and contamination indicators.
    Keywords: 363.61 ; karst aquifer ; water quality ; monitoring ; tracer tests
    Language: English
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  • 144
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: This article proposes a novel method for the 3D reconstruction of LoD2 buildings from LiDAR data. We propose an active sampling strategy which applies a cascade of filters focusing on promising samples at an early stage, thus avoiding the pitfalls of RANSAC-based approaches. Filters are based on prior knowledge represented by (nonparametric) density distributions. In our approach samples are pairs of surflets—3D points together with normal vectors derived from a plane approximation of their neighborhood. Surflet pairs provide parameters for model candidates such as azimuth, inclination and ridge height, as well as parameters estimating internal precision and consistency. This provides a ranking of roof model candidates and leads to a small number of promising hypotheses. Building footprints are derived in a preprocessing step using machine learning methods, in particular support vector machines.
    Keywords: 526 ; roof structures ; building models ; automatic derivation ; LiDAR Data
    Language: English
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  • 145
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Intense farming is often associated with the excessive use of manure or fertilizers and the subsequent deterioration of the groundwater quality in many aquifers worldwide. Stable isotopes of dissolved nitrate (δ15N and δ18O) are widely used to determine sources of nitrate contamination and denitrification processes in groundwater but are often difficult to interpret. Thus, Monte Carlo simulations were carried out for a site in lower Bavaria, Germany, in order to explain δ15N observations in a porous groundwater system with two aquifers, the main aquifer (MA) and several smaller perched aquifers (PA). For evaluating potential contributions, frequency distributions of δ15N were simulated deriving from (I) the mixing of different nitrate sources, related to land use, as input to groundwater, combined with (II) transport of nitrate in groundwater and (III) microbial denitrification. Simulation results indicate a source-driven isotopic shift to heavier δ15N values of nitrate in groundwater, which may be explained by land use changes toward a more intensified agriculture releasing high amounts of manure. Microbial denitrification may play a role in the PA, with simulated δ15N distributions close to the observations. Denitrification processes are however unlikely for the MA, as reasonable simulation curve fits for such a scenario were obtained predominantly for unrealistic portions of nitrate sources and related land use. The applied approach can be used to qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate the influence of different potential contributions, which might mask each other due to overlapping δ15N ranges, and it can support the estimation of nitrate input related to land use.
    Keywords: 553.79 ; groundwater ; nitrate contamination ; denitrification ; interpretation
    Language: English
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  • 146
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: The timing and mechanisms of the Cretaceous sea incursions into Central Asia are still poorly constrained. We provide a new chronostratigraphic framework based on biostratigraphy and magnetostratigraphy together with detailed paleoenvironmental analyses of Cretaceous records of the proto-Paratethys Sea fluctuations in the Tajik and Tarim basins. The Early Cretaceous marine incursion in the western Tajik Basin was followed by major marine incursions during the Cenomanian (ca. 100 Ma) and Santonian (ca. 86 Ma) that reached far into the eastern Tajik and Tarim basins. These marine incursions were separated by a Turonian-Coniacian (ca. 92–86 Ma) regression. Basin-wide tectonic subsidence analyses imply that the Early Cretaceous sea incursion into the Tajik Basin was related to increased Pamir tectonism. We find that thrusting along the northern edge of the Pamir at ca. 130–90 Ma resulted in increased subsidence in a retro-arc basin setting. This tectonic event and coeval eustatic highstand resulted in the maximum observed geographic extent of the sea during the Cenomanian (ca. 100 Ma). The following Turonian-Coniacian (ca. 92–86 Ma) major regression, driven by eustasy, coincides with a sharp slowdown in tectonic subsidence during the late orogenic unloading period with limited thrusting. The Santonian (ca. 86 Ma) major sea incursion was likely controlled by eustasy as evidenced by the coeval fluctuations in the west Siberian Basin. An early Maastrichtian cooling (ca. 71–70 Ma), potentially connected to global Late Cretaceous trends, is inferred from the replacement of mollusk-rich limestones by bryozoan- and echinoderm-rich limestones.
    Keywords: 551 ; Tajik Basin ; Tarim Basin ; Cretaceous sea incursions ; tectonic subsidence ; proto‐Paratethys Sea
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  • 147
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Chytrid fungal parasites are ubiquitous in aquatic ecosystems and infect a wide array of aquatic organisms, including all phytoplankton groups. In addition to their role as parasites, chytrids serve as food to zooplankton, thereby establishing an alternative trophic link between primary and secondary production in pelagic food webs, the so-called mycoloop. We hypothesized that, in addition to the mycoloop, chytrid infection facilitates grazing of filamentous phytoplankton by rendering it more edible to zooplankton consumers through infection-induced fragmentation. We undertook grazing assays to compare the ability of the key zooplankter Daphnia to graze on a filamentous cyanobacterium in the presence or absence of chytrid infection. A near doubling in mean clearance rates was consistently recorded when Daphnia were fed with infected cultures of the cyanobacterium as compared to uninfected ones. Infected filaments were shorter than noninfected ones, indicating that infection-induced fragmentation undermines resistance of filamentous phytoplankton to grazing. We propose an extended conceptualization of the mycoloop that includes both direct effects (i.e., transfer via grazing of chytrid zoospores) and indirect effects (i.e., trophic upgrading and facilitated grazing on phytoplankton via fragmentation) of chytrid infection on trophic transfer at the base of pelagic food webs.
    Keywords: 579 ; 550.78 ; pelagic food web ; fungal parasites ; increasing ecosystem stability ; experiments
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  • 148
    Publication Date: 2021-10-29
    Description: Columnar jointed lava is an important facies in many geothermal reservoir systems. The permeability of jointed lavas is dominated by the contribution from fracture networks. We use a scaling for the permeability of a set of fractures in a solid or porous mass and extend this to arrays of hexagonal intercolumn fractures. To validate our analytical results, we create numerical domains with relevant geometries and extract system-scale permeability using the LBflow lattice-Boltzmann fluid flow simulation tool. Finally, we model the cooling contraction of columns to extend our results so that they predict the permeability with time after lava emplacement. Importantly, we use these results to estimate the range of permeabilities typical of columnar joints that form during cooling from high temperature and are preserved in the crust at moderate to low temperatures.
    Keywords: 551 ; fractured lavas ; permeability ; prediction
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  • 149
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: At regional to local scales internal variability is expected to be a dominant source of uncertainty in analyzing precipitation extremes and mean precipitation even far into the 21st century. A debated topic is whether a faster increase in subdaily precipitation extremes can be expected. Here we analyzed seasonal maximum precipitation in various time steps (3 hr, days, and 5 days) from a high-resolution 50-member large-ensemble (CRCM5-LE) and compared them to changes in mean precipitation over Europe. Our results show that the magnitude of change in extreme precipitation varies for season and duration. Subdaily extremes increase at higher rates than daily extremes and show higher scaling with temperature. Northern Europe shows widespread scaling above Clausius-Clapeyron of subdaily extremes in all seasons and for daily extremes in winter/spring. Scaling above Clausius-Clapeyron is also visible over Eastern Europe in winter/spring. For most regions and seasons the forced response emerges from the internal variability by midcentury.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; large ensembles ; SMILEs ; Regional Climate Model ; precipitation extremes ; subdaily ; Europe
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  • 150
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: In the Antarctic ozone hole, ozone mixing ratios have been decreasing to extremely low values of 0.01–0.1 ppm in nearly all spring seasons since the late 1980s, corresponding to 95–99% local chemical loss. In contrast, Arctic ozone loss has been much more limited and mixing ratios have never before fallen below 0.5 ppm. In Arctic spring 2020, however, ozonesonde measurements in the most depleted parts of the polar vortex show a highly depleted layer, with ozone loss averaged over sondes peaking at 93% at 18 km. Typical minimum mixing ratios of 0.2 ppm were observed, with individual profiles showing values as low as 0.13 ppm (96% loss). The reason for the unprecedented chemical loss was an unusually strong, long-lasting, and cold polar vortex, showing that for individual winters the effect of the slow decline of ozone-depleting substances on ozone depletion may be counteracted by low temperatures.
    Keywords: 551.9 ; ozone ; stratosphere ; ozone loss ; Arctic ; ozone hole ; temperature
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  • 151
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: To account for model error on multiple scales in convective-scale data assimilation, we incorporate the small-scale additive noise based on random samples of model truncation error and combine it with the large-scale additive noise based on random samples from global climatological atmospheric background error covariance. A series of experiments have been executed in the framework of the operational Kilometre-scale ENsemble Data Assimilation system of the Deutscher Wetterdienst for a 2-week period with different types of synoptic forcing of convection (i.e., strong or weak forcing). It is shown that the combination of large- and small-scale additive noise is better than the application of large-scale noise only. The specific increase in the background ensemble spread during data assimilation enhances the quality of short-term 6-hr precipitation forecasts. The improvement is especially significant during the weak forcing period, since the small-scale additive noise increases the small-scale variability which may favor occurrence of convection. It is also shown that additional perturbation of vertical velocity can further advance the performance of combination.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; additive noise ; model truncation error ; multiscale ; radar data assimilation ; probabilistic forecasts
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  • 152
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: Micron-sized HNO3-containing particles in polar stratospheric clouds are known to denitrify the polar winter stratosphere and support chemical ozone loss. We show that populations of nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) particles with volume-equivalent median radii of 3–7 μm can be detected vortex-wide by means of infrared limb sounding. Key for detection are the applied optical characteristics of highly aspherical particles consisting of the β-NAT phase. Spectroscopic signatures and ambient conditions of detected populations show that these particles play a key role in denitrification of the Arctic winter stratosphere. Complementary gas-phase HNO3 observations indicate collocated highly efficient HNO3 sequestration within days and are consistent with measured spectral signals of populations of large NAT particles. High amounts of condensed gas-phase equivalent HNO3 exceeding 10 ppbv and long persistence of detected populations, despite expected gravitational settling, imply that our understanding of the particles is incomplete.
    Keywords: 551.9 ; polar winter ; stratosphere ; denitrification ; nitric acid trihydrate ; infrared limb sounding
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  • 153
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: Fatty acid (FA) compositions provide insights about storage and feeding modes of marine organisms, characterizing trophic relationships in the marine food web. Such compositional data, which are normalized to sum to 1, have values—and thus derived statistics as well—that depend on the particular mix of components that constitute the composition. In FA studies, if the set of FAs under investigation is different in two separate studies, all the summary statistics and relationships between the FAs that are common to the two studies are artificially changed due to the normalization, and thus incomparable. Ratios of FAs, however, are invariant to the particular choice of FAs under consideration—they are said to be subcompositionally coherent. Here, we document the collaboration between a biochemist (M.G.) and a statistician (M.J.G.) to determine a suitable small set of FA ratios that effectively replaces the original data set for the purposes of univariate and multivariate analysis. This strategy is applied to two FA data sets, on copepods and amphipods, respectively, and is widely applicable in other contexts. The selection of ratios is performed in such a way as to satisfy substantive requirements in the context of the respective data set, namely to explain phenomena of interest relevant to the particular species, as well as the statistical requirement to explain as much variance in the FA data set as possible. Benefits of this new approach are (1) univariate statistics that can be validly compared between different studies, and (2) a simplified multivariate analysis of the reduced set of ratios, giving practically the same results as the analysis of the full FA data set.
    Keywords: 578.77
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  • 154
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: The Global Carbon Budget 2018 (GCB2018) estimated by the atmospheric CO 2 growth rate, fossil fuel emissions, and modeled (bottom-up) land and ocean fluxes cannot be fully closed, leading to a “budget imbalance,” highlighting uncertainties in GCB components. However, no systematic analysis has been performed on which regions or processes contribute to this term. To obtain deeper insight on the sources of uncertainty in global and regional carbon budgets, we analyzed differences in Net Biome Productivity (NBP) for all possible combinations of bottom-up and top-down data sets in GCB2018: (i) 16 dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), and (ii) 5 atmospheric inversions that match the atmospheric CO 2 growth rate. We find that the global mismatch between the two ensembles matches well the GCB2018 budget imbalance, with Brazil, Southeast Asia, and Oceania as the largest contributors. Differences between DGVMs dominate global mismatches, while at regional scale differences between inversions contribute the most to uncertainty. At both global and regional scales, disagreement on NBP interannual variability between the two approaches explains a large fraction of differences. We attribute this mismatch to distinct responses to El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability between DGVMs and inversions and to uncertainties in land use change emissions, especially in South America and Southeast Asia. We identify key needs to reduce uncertainty in carbon budgets: reducing uncertainty in atmospheric inversions (e.g., through more observations in the tropics) and in land use change fluxes, including more land use processes and evaluating land use transitions (e.g., using high-resolution remote-sensing), and, finally, improving tropical hydroecological processes and fire representation within DGVMs.
    Keywords: 551.9 ; atmospheric inversions ; global carbon budget ; dynamic global vegetation models ; carbon cycle
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  • 155
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: The magnitudes of river floods in Europe have been observed to change, but their alignment with changes in the spatial coverage or extent of individual floods has not been clear. We analyze flood magnitudes and extents for 3,872 hydrometric stations across Europe over the past five decades and classify each flood based on antecedent weather conditions. We find positive correlations between flood magnitudes and extents for 95% of the stations. In central Europe and the British Isles, the association of increasing trends in magnitudes and extents is due to a magnitude-extent correlation of precipitation and soil moisture along with a shift in the flood generating processes. The alignment of trends in flood magnitudes and extents highlights the increasing importance of transnational flood risk management.
    Keywords: 551.48 ; flood ; synchrony ; magnitude ; climate change ; classification ; spatial statistics
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  • 156
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: This investigation attempts to understand the eco-hydrology of, and accordingly suggest an option to manage floodwater for agriculture in, the understudied and data-sparse ephemeral Baraka River Basin within the hyper-arid region of Sudan. Reference is made to the major feature of the basin, that is, the Toker Delta spate irrigation scheme. A point-to-pixel comparison of gridded and ground-based data sets is performed to enhance the estimates of rainfall. Analysis of remotely sensed land use/cover data is performed. The results show a significant reduction of the grassland and barren areas explained by a significant expansion of the cropland and open shrubland (invasive mesquite trees) areas in the delta. The cotton sown area is highly dependent on the flooded area and the discharge volume in the delta. However, the area of this major crop has declined since the early 1990s in favour of cultivation of more profitable food crops. Expansion of mesquite in the delta is problematic, taking hold under increased floodwater, and can only be manged by clearance to provide crop cultivation area. There is a great potential for floodwater harvesting during the rainfall season (June to September). A total seasonal runoff volume of around 4.6 and 10.8 billion cubic metres is estimated at 90 and 50% probabilities of exceedance (reliabilities), respectively. Rather than leaving the runoff generated from rainfall events to pass to the Red Sea or be consumed by mesquite trees, a location for runoff harvesting structure in a highly suitable area is proposed. Such a structure will support any policy shifts towards planning and managing the basin water resources for use in irrigating the agricultural scheme.
    Keywords: 551.48 ; Baraka River Basin ; eco-hydrology ; floodwater harvesting ; land-cover classification ; Mesquite ; Toker Delta
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  • 157
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: Rockwall slope erosion is defined for the upper Bhagirathi catchment using cosmogenic Beryllium-10 (10Be) concentrations in sediment from medial moraines on Gangotri glacier. Beryllium-10 concentrations range from 1.1 ± 0.2 to 2.7 ± 0.3 × 104 at/g SiO2, yielding rockwall slope erosion rates from 2.4 ± 0.4 to 6.9 ± 1.9 mm/a. Slope erosion rates are likely to have varied over space and time and responded to shifts in climate, geomorphic and/or tectonic regime throughout the late Quaternary. Geomorphic and sedimentological analyses confirm that the moraines are predominately composed of rockfall and avalanche debris mobilized from steep relief rockwall slopes via periglacial weathering processes. The glacial rockwall slope erosion affects sediment flux and storage of snow and ice at the catchment head on diurnal to millennial timescales, and more broadly influences catchment configuration and relief, glacier dynamics and microclimates. The slope erosion rates exceed the averaged catchment-wide and exhumation rates of Bhagirathi and the Garhwal region on geomorphic timescales (103−105 years), supporting the view that erosion at the headwaters can outpace the wider catchment. The 10Be concentrations of medial moraine sediment for the upper Bhagirathi catchment and the catchments of Chhota Shigri in Lahul, northern India and Baltoro glacier in Central Karakoram, Pakistan show a tentative relationship between 10Be concentration and precipitation. As such there is more rapid glacial rockwall slope erosion in the monsoon-influenced Lesser and Greater Himalaya compared to the semi-arid interior of the orogen. Rockwall slope erosion in the three study areas, and more broadly across the northwest Himalaya is likely governed by individual catchment dynamics that vary across space and time. © 2019 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Keywords: 551.3 ; supraglacial processes ; sediment flux ; glacier ; climate ; cosmogenic isotopes
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  • 158
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: It is shown that it is possible to perform combined X-ray and neutron single-crystal studies in the same diamond anvil cell (DAC). A modified Merrill–Bassett DAC equipped with an inflatable membrane filled with He gas has been developed. It can be used on laboratory X-ray and synchrotron diffractometers as well as on neutron instruments. The data processing procedures and a joint structural refinement of the high-pressure synchrotron and neutron single-crystal data are presented and discussed for the first time.
    Keywords: 548 ; single-crystal X-ray diffraction ; single-crystal neutron diffraction ; high pressure ; diamond anvil cells
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  • 159
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: Clouds interact with atmospheric radiation and substantially modify the Earth's energy budget. Cloud formation processes occur over a vast range of spatial and temporal scales, which make their thorough numerical representation challenging. Therefore, the impact of parameter choices for simulations of cloud-radiative effects is assessed in the current study. Numerical experiments are carried out using the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) model with varying grid spacings between 2.5 and 80 km and with different subgrid-scale parameterization approaches. Simulations are performed over the North Atlantic with either one-moment or two-moment microphysics and with convection being parameterized or explicitly resolved by grid-scale dynamics. Simulated cloud-radiative effects are compared to products derived from Meteosat measurements. Furthermore, a sophisticated cloud classification algorithm is applied to understand the differences and dependencies of simulated and observed cloud-radiative effects. The cloud classification algorithm developed for the satellite observations is also applied to the simulation output based on synthetic infrared brightness temperatures, a novel approach that is not impacted by changing insolation and guarantees a consistent and fair comparison. It is found that flux biases originate equally from clear-sky and cloudy parts of the radiation field. Simulated cloud amounts and cloud-radiative effects are dominated by marine, shallow clouds, and their behavior is highly resolution dependent. Bias compensation between shortwave and longwave flux biases, seen in the coarser simulations, is significantly diminished for higher resolutions. Based on the analysis results, it is argued that cloud-microphysical and cloud-radiative properties have to be adjusted to further improve agreement with observed cloud-radiative effects.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; Cloud-Radiative Effects ; TOA Energy Budget ; High-Resolution Simulations ; Meteosat Observations ; Cloud Classification ; Bias Decomposition
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  • 160
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: An abundance of evidence indicates that the tropics are expanding. Despite many attempts to decipher the cause, the underlying dynamical mechanism driving tropical expansion is still not entirely clear. Here, based on observations, multimodel simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and purposefully designed numerical experiments, the variations and trends of the tropical width are explored from a regional perspective. We find that the width of the tropics closely follows the displacement of oceanic midlatitude meridional temperature gradients (MMTG). Under global warming, as a first-order response, the subtropical ocean experiences more surface warming because of the mean Ekman convergence of anomalously warm water. The enhanced subtropical warming, which is partially independent of natural climate oscillations, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, leads to poleward advance of the MMTG and drives the tropical expansion. Our results, supported by both observations and model simulations, imply that global warming may have already significantly contributed to the ongoing tropical expansion, especially over the ocean-dominant Southern Hemisphere.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Tropical Expansion ; Ocean Circulation ; Jet Stream ; Storm Track ; Mid-latitude Temperature Gradients ; Global Warming
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  • 161
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: How the solar electromagnetic energy entering the Earth's atmosphere varied since preindustrial times is an important consideration in the climate change debate. Detrimental to this debate, estimates of the change in total solar irradiance (TSI) since the Maunder minimum, an extended period of weak solar activity preceding the industrial revolution, differ markedly, ranging from a drop of 0.75 W m−2 to a rise of 6.3 W m−2. Consequently, the exact contribution by solar forcing to the rise in global temperatures over the past centuries remains inconclusive. Adopting a novel approach based on state-of-the-art solar imagery and numerical simulations, we establish the TSI level of the Sun when it is in its least-active state to be 2.0 ± 0.7 W m−2 below the 2019 level. This means TSI could not have risen since the Maunder minimum by more than this amount, thus restricting the possible role of solar forcing in global warming.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; total solar irradiance
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  • 162
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: White-beam X-ray topography has been performed to provide direct evidence of micro-voids in dislocation-free high-purity germanium single crystals. The voids are visible because of a dynamical diffraction contrast. It is shown that voids occur only in dislocation-free parts of the crystal and do not show up in regions with homogeneous and moderate dislocation density. It is further suggested that the voids originate from clustering of vacancies during the growth process. A general method is proposed to verify the presence of voids for any crystalline material of high structural perfection.
    Keywords: 548 ; X-ray topography ; dynamical theory ; high-purity germanium ; vacancies ; voids ; dislocation density ; diffraction contrast
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  • 163
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: Vb cyclones are major drivers of extreme precipitation and floods in the study area of hydrological Bavaria (Germany). When assessing climate change impacts on Vb cyclones, internal variability of the climate system is an important underlying uncertainty. Here, we employ a 50-member single-model initial-condition large ensemble of a regional climate model to study climate variability and forced change on Vb cyclones. An artificial neural network detects cutoff lows over central Europe, which are associated with extreme precipitation Vb cyclones. Thus, machine learning filters the large ensemble prior to cyclone tracking. Our results show a striking change in Vb seasonality with a strong decrease of Vb cyclones in summer (−52%) and a large increase in spring (+73%) under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. This change exceeds the noise of internal variability and leads to a peak shift from summer to spring. Additionally, we show significant increases in the daily precipitation intensity during Vb cyclones in all seasons.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Vb-cyclones ; Machine Learning ; Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) ; Single-Model Large Ensembles ; Internal Variability ; Floods
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  • 164
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: Integrated flood management strategies consider property-level precautionary measures as a vital part. Whereas this is a well-researched topic for residents, little is known about the adaptive behaviour of flood-prone companies although they often settle on the ground floor of buildings and are thus among the first affected by flooding. This pilot study analyses flood responses of 64 businesses in a district of the city of Dresden, Germany that experienced major flooding in 2002 and 2013. Using standardised survey data and accompanying qualitative interviews, the analyses revealed that the largest driver of adaptive behaviour is experiencing flood events. Intangible factors such as tradition and a sense of community play a role for the decision to stay in the area, while lacking ownership might hamper property-level adaptation. Further research is also needed to understand the role of insurance and governmental aid for recovery and adaptation of businesses.
    Keywords: 551.489 ; adaptation ; disaster risk reduction ; integrated flood risk management ; risk perception
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  • 165
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: The importance of splay-thrust faults in subduction seismogenesis is increasingly acknowledged; however, their elastic interaction with the plate interface remains unclear. Here, we use GPS velocities, constrained by millennial fault slip rates, to study elastic fault-interactions between the plate interface and its upper-plate splay-thrust faults from the southern Hellenic Subduction System (HSS). We find that, despite its largely aseismic character, the HSS plate interface zone is kinematically segmented, with slip rate deficits locally reaching ~85% and ~45% of the plate convergence rate on the western and eastern segments, respectively, and on structures different from those that ruptured historically. Although western Crete has been more active seismically during late Holocene, we find that the eastern HSS has higher seismic potential for large-magnitude (M 〉 6) earthquakes and its interface zone is closer to failure. Elastic fault interactions are responsible for both significant intersegment variability in strain accumulation and uniformity in earthquake rupture segmentation along the HSS over millennial timescales.
    Keywords: 551.22 ; subduction seismogenesis ; GPS ; locking degree ; fault interactions ; earthquake rupture segmentation
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  • 166
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: Droughts lead to falling river water levels and consequently expose river sediments. It is well known that from these exposed aquatic sediments, CO2 emits to the atmosphere, but upscaling of CO2 measurements from discrete point measurements to an entire river system remains challenging. Naturally occurring heterogeneous processes must be accounted for to obtain an overall CO2 flux and to assess its significance. We contribute to this challenge by incorporating a two stage scaling approach using in situ CO2 fluxes and remote sensing data. First, by combining optical airborne data with closed chamber measurements at a representative model site during a first scaling stage, we derive land cover type specific CO2 fluxes and identify distance to the water as the most suitable proxy for further upscaling. Second, we upscale derived spatial relations from the first scaling stage to the entire river system of the Elbe River using a satellite-based analysis. In this way, we derived area-weighted CO2 emissions from exposed river sediments of 56.6 ± 64.8 tC day−1 (corrected distance proxy) and 52.9 ± 44.6 tC day−1 (land cover proxy), respectively, for 1 day during the 2018 extreme drought. Given the intensification of droughts in terms of length and reoccurrence frequency, this result not only highlights the importance of drought-induced exposition of river sediment as a source of atmospheric CO2 but also underscores the ability to monitor CO2 emissions over an entire river system on a regular basis using remote sensing.
    Keywords: 551.48 ; carbon dioxide emission ; chamber measurements ; hydrological drought ; Sentinel-2 ; upscaling
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  • 167
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: Abstract In mixed bedrock–alluvial rivers, the response of the system to a flood event can be affected by a number of factors, including coarse sediment availability in the channel, sediment supply from the hillslopes and upstream, flood sequencing and coarse sediment grain size distribution. However, the impact of along-stream changes in channel width on bedload transport dynamics remains largely unexplored. We combine field data, theory and numerical modelling to address this gap. First, we present observations from the Daan River gorge in western Taiwan, where the river flows through a 1 km long 20–50 m wide bedrock gorge bounded upstream and downstream by wide braidplains. We documented two flood events during which coarse sediment evacuation and redeposition appear to cause changes of up to several metres in channel bed elevation. Motivated by this case study, we examined the relationships between discharge, channel width and bedload transport capacity, and show that for a given slope narrow channels transport bedload more efficiently than wide ones at low discharges, whereas wider channels are more efficient at high discharges. We used the model sedFlow to explore this effect, running a random sequence of floods through a channel with a narrow gorge section bounded upstream and downstream by wider reaches. Channel response to imposed floods is complex, as high and low discharges drive different spatial patterns of erosion and deposition, and the channel may experience both of these regimes during the peak and recession periods of each flood. Our modelling suggests that width differences alone can drive substantial variations in sediment flux and bed response, without the need for variations in sediment supply or mobility. The fluctuations in sediment transport rates that result from width variations can lead to intermittent bed exposure, driving incision in different segments of the channel during different portions of the hydrograph. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd
    Keywords: 551.3 ; bedload transport ; discharge variability ; bedrock–alluvial channels ; channel width ; hysteresis
    Language: English
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  • 168
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: A new global climate model setup using FESOM2.0 for the sea ice-ocean component and ECHAM6.3 for the atmosphere and land surface has been developed. Replacing FESOM1.4 by FESOM2.0 promises a higher efficiency of the new climate setup compared to its predecessor. The new setup allows for long-term climate integrations using a locally eddy-resolving ocean. Here it is evaluated in terms of (1) the mean state and long-term drift under preindustrial climate conditions, (2) the fidelity in simulating the historical warming, and (3) differences between coarse and eddy-resolving ocean configurations. The results show that the realism of the new climate setup is overall within the range of existing models. In terms of oceanic temperatures, the historical warming signal is of smaller amplitude than the model drift in case of a relatively short spin-up. However, it is argued that the strategy of “de-drifting” climate runs after the short spin-up, proposed by the HighResMIP protocol, allows one to isolate the warming signal. Moreover, the eddy-permitting/resolving ocean setup shows notable improvements regarding the simulation of oceanic surface temperatures, in particular in the Southern Ocean.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; FESOM ; ocean model ; climate model ; unstructured mesh ; Finite Volume
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  • 169
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: Detailed organic geochemical and carbon isotopic (δ13C and Δ14C) analyses are performed on permafrost deposits affected by coastal erosion (Herschel Island, Canadian Beaufort Sea) and adjacent marine sediments (Herschel Basin) to understand the fate of organic carbon in Arctic nearshore environments. We use an end-member model based on the carbon isotopic composition of bulk organic matter to identify sources of organic carbon. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to quantify the contribution of coastal permafrost erosion to the sedimentary carbon budget. The models suggest that ~40% of all carbon released by local coastal permafrost erosion is efficiently trapped and sequestered in the nearshore zone. This highlights the importance of sedimentary traps in environments such as basins, lagoons, troughs, and canyons for the carbon sequestration in previously poorly investigated, nearshore areas.
    Keywords: 551 ; permafrost ; coastal erosion ; biomarker ; radiocarbon ; carbon flux ; carbon burial
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  • 170
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: Volcanic eruptions are an important climate driver. The impact of Pinatubo-sized eruptions has been observed and is well constrained. The magnitude and duration of volcanic winter effects after supereruptions such as Toba remain disputed due to disagreement between the strong cooling predicted by models and much milder climate perturbations according to the paleodata. Here we present a reevaluated climate impact of a Toba-sized supereruption based on up-to-date GISS ModelE simulations. In this study, we account for all known primary mechanisms that govern the evolution of the volcanic plume and their nonlinear interactions. The SO 2 radiative effects are evaluated for the first time in coupled climate simulations with the interactive atmospheric chemistry module. We found that SO 2 effects on photochemistry, dynamics, and radiative forcing are especially prominent. Due to strong absorption in ultraviolet, SO 2 feedback on photochemistry partially offsets the limiting effect associated with aerosol microphysical processes. SO 2 greenhouse warming soothes the radiative cooling exerted by sulfate aerosols. SO 2 absorption in the shortwave and longwave causes radiative heating and lofting of the volcanic plume, and boosts the efficiency of SO 2 impact on photochemistry. Our analysis shows that SO 2 lifetime and magnitude of effects scale up and increase with the amount of emitted material. For a Pinatubo-sized eruption, SO 2 feedbacks on chemistry and dynamics are relevant only during the initial stage of the volcanic plume evolution, while local SO 2 concentrations are high. For a Toba-sized eruption, SO 2 effects are as important as sulfate aerosols and produce a less extreme volcanic winter.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; supereruption ; Toba ; volcanic winter ; sulfate aerosols ; climate impact ; sulfur dioxide
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  • 171
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning of marine and lake sediments has been extensively used to study changes in past environmental and climatic processes over a range of timescales. The interpretation of XRF-derived element ratios in paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic studies primarily considers differences in the relative abundances of particular elements. Here we present new XRF core scanning data from two long sediment cores in the Andaman Sea in the northern Indian Ocean and show that sea level related processes influence terrigenous inputs based proxies such as Ti/Ca, Fe/Ca, and elemental concentrations of the transition metals (e.g., Mn). Zr/Rb ratios are mainly a function of changes in median grain size of lithogenic particles and often covary with changes in Ca concentrations that reflect changes in biogenic calcium carbonate production. This suggests that a common process (i.e., sea level) influences both records. The interpretation of lighter element data (e.g., Si and Al) based on low XRF counts is complicated as variations in mean grain size and water content result in systematic artifacts and signal intensities not related to the Al or Si content of the sediments. This highlights the need for calibration of XRF core scanning data based on discrete sample analyses and careful examination of sediment properties such as porosity/water content for reliably disentangling environmental signals from other physical properties. In the case of the Andaman Sea, reliable extraction of a monsoon signal requires accounting for the sea level influence on the XRF data.
    Keywords: 552.5 ; marine sediments ; lake sediments ; core scanning ; X‐ray fluorescence (XRF ; sediment properties
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  • 172
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: Land use and climate changes both affect terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we used three combinations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1xRCP26, SSP3xRCP60, and SSP5xRCP85) as input to three dynamic global vegetation models to assess the impacts and associated uncertainty on several ecosystem functions: terrestrial carbon storage and fluxes, evapotranspiration, surface albedo, and runoff. We also performed sensitivity simulations in which we kept either land use or climate (including atmospheric CO2) constant from year 2015 on to calculate the isolated land use versus climate effects. By the 2080–2099 period, carbon storage increases by up to 87 ± 47 Gt (SSP1xRCP26) compared to present day, with large spatial variance across scenarios and models. Most of the carbon uptake is attributed to drivers beyond future land use and climate change, particularly the lagged effects of historic environmental changes. Future climate change typically increases carbon stocks in vegetation but not soils, while future land use change causes carbon losses, even for net agricultural abandonment (SSP1xRCP26). Evapotranspiration changes are highly variable across scenarios, and models do not agree on the magnitude or even sign of change of the individual effects. A calculated decrease in January and July surface albedo (up to −0.021 ± 0.007 and −0.004 ± 0.004 for SSP5xRCP85) and increase in runoff (+67 ± 6 mm/year) is largely driven by climate change. Overall, our results show that future land use and climate change will both have substantial impacts on ecosystem functioning. However, future changes can often not be fully explained by these two drivers and legacy effects have to be considered.
    Keywords: 333.7 ; 551.6 ; land use change ; climate change projections ; terrestrial ecosystems ; vegetation modeling ; ecosystem service indicators ; legacy effects
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  • 173
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: The transition from the Pliocene to the Pleistocene was accompanied by major tectonic reorganizations of key oceanic gateways. In particular, the gradual closure of the Panama Gateway and the constriction of the Indonesian Gateway significantly affected the structure of the Pacific thermocline. In the East Pacific, the thermocline shoaled from an early Pliocene El Niño-like depth to its modern state, which had significant implications for global climate. Here we use Mg/Ca temperature estimates from subsurface and thermocline dwelling foraminifera to reconstruct the meridional Plio-Pleistocene evolution of the Southeast Pacific thermocline, in relation to atmospheric circulation changes. In combination with similar reconstructions from the north-equatorial Pacific, our data indicate a change in the thermocline, responding to the northward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone/South Pacific High system between ~3.8 and 3.5 Ma. After 3.5 Ma, we record a second major phase of thermocline shoaling, which points to the Intertropical Convergence Zone/South Pacific High-system movement toward its modern position along with the gradual cooling of the Northern Hemisphere and its associated glaciation. These findings highlight that a warming globe may affect equatorial regions more intensively due to the potential temperature-driven movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone/South Pacific High and their associated oceanic systems.
    Keywords: 551 ; ITCZ ; South Pacific High ; Plio-Pleistocene ; El Niño ; thermocline
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  • 174
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: The brittle-ductile transition is a domain of finite extent characterized by high differential stress where both brittle and ductile deformation are likely to occur. Understanding its depth location, extent, and stability through time is of relevance for diverse applications including subduction dynamics, mantle-surface interactions, and, more recently, proper targeting of high-enthalpy unconventional geothermal resources, where local thermal conditions may activate ductile creep at shallower depths than expected. In this contribution, we describe a thermodynamically consistent physical framework and its numerical implementation, therefore extending the formulation of the companion paper Jacquey and Cacace (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JB018474) to model thermo-hydro-mechanical coupled processes responsible for the occurrence of transitional semi-brittle, semi-ductile behavior in porous rocks. We make use of a damage rheology to account for the macroscopic effects of microstructural processes leading to brittle-like material weakening and of a rate-dependent plastic model to account for ductile material behavior. Our formulation additionally considers the role of porosity and its evolution during loading in controlling the volumetric mechanical response of a stressed rock. By means of dedicated applications, we discuss how our damage poro-visco-elasto-viscoplastic rheology can effectively reconcile the style of localized deformation under different confining pressure conditions as well as the bulk macroscopic material response as recorded by laboratory experiments under full triaxial conditions.
    Keywords: 551 ; lithosphere ; brittle-ductile transition ; modeling
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  • 175
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: To investigate transient dynamics of soil water redistribution during infiltration, we conducted horizontal borehole and surface ground penetrating radar measurements during a 4-day infiltration experiment at the rhizontron facility in Selhausen, Germany. Zero-offset ground penetrating radar profiling in horizontal boreholes was used to obtain soil water content information at specific depths (0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8 and 1.2 m). However, horizontal borehole ground penetrating radar measurements do not provide accurate soil water content estimates of the top soil (0–0.1 m depth) because of interference between direct and critically refracted waves. Therefore, surface ground penetrating radar data were additionally acquired to estimate soil water content of the top soil. Due to the generation of electromagnetic waveguides in the top soil caused by infiltration, a strong dispersion in the ground penetrating radar data was observed in 500 MHz surface ground penetrating radar data. A dispersion inversion was thus performed with these surface ground penetrating radar data to obtain soil water content information for the top 0.1 m of the soil. By combining the complementary borehole and surface ground penetrating radar data, vertical soil water content profiles were obtained, which were used to investigate vertical soil water redistribution. Reasonable consistency was found between the ground penetrating radar results and independent soil water content data derived from time domain reflectometry measurements. Because of the improved spatial representativeness of the ground penetrating radar measurements, the soil water content profiles obtained by ground penetrating radar better matched the known water storage changes during the infiltration experiment. It was concluded that the combined use of borehole and surface ground penetrating radar data convincingly revealed spatiotemporal soil water content variation during infiltration. In addition, this setup allowed a better quantification of water storage, which is a prerequisite for future applications, where, for example, the soil hydraulic properties will be estimated from ground penetrating radar data.
    Keywords: 550.724 ; Ground-penetrating radar ; Hydrogeophysics ; Data processing
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  • 176
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: Abstract Although the core velocity of the Atlantic North Equatorial Undercurrent (NEUC) is low (0.1−0.3 m s−1), it has been suggested to act as an important oxygen supply route towards the oxygen minimum zone in the eastern tropical North Atlantic. For the first time, the intraseasonal to interannual NEUC variability and its impact on oxygen are investigated based on shipboard and moored velocity observations around 5°N, 23°W. In contrast to previous studies that were mainly based on models or hydrographic data, we find hardly any seasonal cycle of NEUC transports in the central Atlantic. The NEUC transport variability is instead dominated by sporadic intraseasonal events. Only some of these events are associated with high oxygen levels suggesting an occasional eastward oxygen supply by NEUC transport events. Nevertheless, they likely contribute to the local oxygen maximum in the mean shipboard section along 23°W at the NEUC core position.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; Atlantic North Equatorial Undercurrent (NEUC)
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  • 177
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: Abstract One of the most intriguing facets of the climate system is that it exhibits variability across all temporal and spatial scales; pronounced examples are temperature and precipitation. The structure of this variability, however, is not arbitrary. Over certain spatial and temporal ranges, it can be described by scaling relationships in the form of power laws in probability density distributions and autocorrelation functions. These scaling relationships can be quantified by scaling exponents which measure how the variability changes across scales and how the intensity changes with frequency of occurrence. Scaling determines the relative magnitudes and persistence of natural climate fluctuations. Here, we review various scaling mechanisms and their relevance for the climate system. We show observational evidence of scaling and discuss the application of scaling properties and methods in trend detection, climate sensitivity analyses, and climate prediction.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; scaling ; climate variability ; memory ; scaling mechanisms ; paleoclimate ; power law
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  • 178
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: This paper presents evidence for a limnological response to the Laacher See eruption (LSE) as detected in lake sediments from Nahe, northern Germany. The sediment section of the Allerød period dating to between 13 422 and 12 708 cal. a BP is preserved in annual laminations. Within this section, the LSE was identified as a cryptotephra layer (12 944±44 cal. a BP). Microfacies analysis, continuous high-resolution geochemical measurements and pollen analyses enabled a high-resolution reconstruction of environmental change. The older part of the Allerød (c. 13 422 to 12 943 cal. a BP) was characterized by relatively stable sedimentation conditions. Evidence for windier conditions dating to c. 13 160 to 13 080 cal. a BP probably reflects the Gerzensee oscillation. Pronounced changes of the lake sedimentation followed the LSE. Four unusually thick varves with increased amounts of allochthonous material indicate serious disturbance of the local environment immediately after the LSE, related to increased storminess and/or the occurrence of high intensity rainfall events. A pronounced reduction of biogenic silica accumulation for c. 60 years after the LSE could reflect a period of acidification. Indications of a simultaneous lake level increase until c. 60 years after the LSE are in line with the supposed reduced evapotranspiration associated with cooler conditions. About 120 years after the LSE, increased oxygen access at the lake bottom, allochthonous input and Cl fluxes point to an onset of increasingly stronger westerly winds, probably as a long-term response to the LSE. This supports the idea of a southward shift of the mid-latitude westerlies wind system within the interval between the LSE and the beginning of the Younger Dryas. The pace of the southwards shift of this wind system decreased from 10 km a−1 in the initial phase (40–120 years after LSE) to 6 km a−1 in the later phase (120–200 years after LSE).
    Keywords: 551 ; Laacher See eruption (LSE) ; lake sediments
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  • 179
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: We reconstructed the variability of the Earth's strongest hydrological system, the Indian monsoon, over the interval 6.24 to 4.91 Ma at International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 353 Site U1448 in the Andaman Sea. We integrated high-resolution benthic and planktic foraminiferal carbon and oxygen isotopes with Mg/Ca measurements of the mixed layer foraminifer Trilobatus sacculifer to reconstruct the isotopic composition of seawater (δ18Osw) and the gradient between planktic and benthic foraminiferal δ13C. A prominent increase in mixed layer temperatures of ~4°C occurred between 5.55 and 5.28 Ma, accompanied by a change from precession- to obliquity-driven variability in planktic δ18O and δ18Osw. We suggest that an intensified cross-equatorial transport of heat and moisture, paced by obliquity, led to increased summer monsoon precipitation during warm stages after 5.55 Ma. Transient cold stages were characterized by reduced mixed layer temperatures and summer monsoon failure, thus resembling late Pleistocene stadials. In contrast, an overall cooler background climate state with a strengthened biological pump prevailed prior to 5.55 Ma. These findings highlight the importance of internal feedback processes for the long-term evolution of the Indian monsoon.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Indian monsoon ; Miocene-Pliocene transition ; Bay of Bengal ; Mg/Ca paleothermometry ; stable isotopes ; orbital forcing
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  • 180
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: High-quality single-crystal X-ray diffraction measurements are a prerequisite for obtaining precise and reliable structure data and electron densities. The single crystal should therefore fulfill several conditions, of which a regular defined shape is of particularly high importance for compounds consisting of heavy elements with high X-ray absorption coefficients. The absorption of X-rays passing through a 50 µm-thick LiNbO3 crystal can reduce the transmission of Mo Kα radiation by several tens of percent, which makes an absorption correction of the reflection intensities necessary. In order to reduce ambiguities concerning the shape of a crystal, used for the necessary absorption correction, a method for preparation of regularly shaped single crystals out of large samples is presented and evaluated. This method utilizes a focused ion beam to cut crystals with defined size and shape reproducibly and carefully without splintering. For evaluation, a single-crystal X-ray diffraction study using a laboratory diffractometer is presented, comparing differently prepared LiNbO3 crystals originating from the same macroscopic crystal plate. Results of the data reduction, structure refinement and electron density reconstruction indicate qualitatively similar values for all prepared crystals. Thus, the different preparation techniques have a smaller impact than expected. However, the atomic coordinates, electron densities and atomic charges are supposed to be more reliable since the focused-ion-beam-prepared crystal exhibits the smallest extinction influences. This preparation technique is especially recommended for susceptible samples, for cases where a minimal invasive preparation procedure is needed, and for the preparation of crystals from specific areas, complex material architectures and materials that cannot be prepared with common methods (breaking or grinding).
    Keywords: 548 ; X-ray diffraction ; sample preparation ; focused ion beams
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  • 181
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: The joint effect of droplet sedimentation and wind shear on cloud top entrainment in stratocumulus is investigated with direct numerical simulations. Although it is well understood that droplet sedimentation weakens entrainment while wind shear enhances entrainment, there is no consensus on the magnitude of each process. We find that the entrainment reduction by droplet sedimentation is sufficiently strong to completely compensate the entrainment enhancement by wind shear, and thus, droplet sedimentation and wind shear effects can be equally important for cloud top entrainment. For instance, for the subtropical conditions considered here, droplet sedimentation weakens entrainment by up to 40% while wind shear enhances entrainment by up to 40%. This result implies that the droplet size distribution can substantially affect cloud lifetimes not only because of its effect on rain formation but also because of its effect on cloud top entrainment, which emphasizes the need for a better characterization of droplet size distributions in stratocumulus. A second implication is that entrainment velocity parametrizations should pay equal attention to droplet sedimentation and to wind shear effects.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; stratocumulus ; entrainment ; wind shear ; droplet sedimentation ; turbulence ; evaporative cooling
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  • 182
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: Weirs are barriers built across rivers for a wide range of other purposes than hydropower production. Like hydropower installations, weirs can negatively impact fish migrations. Downstream migration and mortality of Atlantic salmon smolts were studied during passage of a weir and power station by tagging 227 smolts with radio transmitters. Extra loss of smolts due to the weir and adjacent reservoir was 5.2%. Mortality was likely related to physical damage imposed to the smolts and/or increased predation risk. Extra loss of smolts did not differ between the weir and the power station (7.2%). Migration speeds were reduced at the power station but not at the weir. We conclude that mortality at one power station site may differ considerably among years, because the mortality was more than four times higher in a previous year than in this study. Increased river discharge seemed to decrease mortality and increase migration speeds at the power station.
    Keywords: 551.483 ; downstream migration ; migration speed ; mortality ; power station ; radio telemetry ; salmon smolt ; weir
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  • 183
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: The quantification of factors leading to harmfully high levels of particulate matter (PM) remains challenging. This study presents a novel approach using a statistical model that is trained to predict hourly concentrations of particles smaller than 10  μm (PM10) by combining satellite-borne aerosol optical depth (AOD) with meteorological and land-use parameters. The model is shown to accurately predict PM10 (overall R 2 = 0.77, RMSE = 7.44  μg/m 3) for measurement sites in Germany. The capability of satellite observations to map and monitor surface air pollution is assessed by investigating the relationship between AOD and PM10 in the same modeling setup. Sensitivity analyses show that important drivers of modeled PM10 include multiday mean wind flow, boundary layer height (BLH), day of year (DOY), and temperature. Different mechanisms associated with elevated PM10 concentrations are identified in winter and summer. In winter, mean predictions of PM10 concentrations 〉35  μg/m 3 occur when BLH is below ∼500 m. Paired with multiday easterly wind flow, mean model predictions surpass 40  μg/m 3 of PM10. In summer, PM10 concentrations seemingly are less driven by meteorology, but by emission or chemical particle formation processes, which are not included in the model. The relationship between AOD and predicted PM10 concentrations depends to a large extent on ambient meteorological conditions. Results suggest that AOD can be used to assess air quality at ground level in a machine learning approach linking it with meteorological conditions.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; aerosol optical depth ; air quality ; PM10 ; machine learning ; drivers of air pollution ; MAIAC
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  • 184
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: Forest canopies present irregular surfaces that alter both the quantity and spatiotemporal variability of precipitation inputs. The drop size distribution (DSD) of rainfall varies with rainfall event characteristics and is altered substantially by the forest stand properties. Yet, the influence of two major European tree species, European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. karst), on throughfall DSD is largely unknown. In order to assess the impact of these two species with differing canopy structures on throughfall DSD, two optical disdrometers, one above and one below the canopy of each European beech and Norway spruce, measured DSD of both incident rainfall and throughfall over 2 months at a 10-s resolution. Fractions of different throughfall categories were analysed for single-precipitation events of different intensities. While penetrating the canopies, clear shifts in drop size and temporal distributions of incoming rainfall were observed. Beech and spruce, however, had different DSD, behaved differently in their effect on diameter volume percentiles as well as width of drop spectrum. The maximum drop sizes under beech were higher than under spruce. The mean ± standard deviation of the median volume drops size (D50) over all rain events was 2.7 ± 0.28 mm for beech and 0.80 ± 0.04 mm for spruce, respectively. In general, there was a high-DSD variability within events indicating varying amounts of the different throughfall fractions. These findings help to better understand the effects of different tree species on rainfall partitioning processes and small-scale variations in subcanopy rainfall inputs, thereby demonstrating the need for further research in high-resolution spatial and temporal properties of rainfall and throughfall.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; canopy drip ; canopy interaction ; disdrometer ; droplets ; interception ; rain intensity ; rain rate ; splash droplets
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  • 185
    Publication Date: 2021-10-07
    Description: Precipitation extremes with devastating socioeconomic consequences within the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) are expected to become more frequent in the near future. The complexity in SAMS behavior, however, poses severe challenges for reliable future projections. Thus, robust paleomonsoon records are needed to constrain the high spatiotemporal variability in the response of SAMS rainfall to different climatic drivers. This study uses Ti/Ca ratios from X-ray fluorescence scanning of a sediment core retrieved off eastern Brazilian to trace precipitation changes over the past 322 Kyr. The results indicate that despite the spatiotemporal complexity of the SAMS, insolation forcing is the primary pacemaker of variations in the monsoonal system. Additional modulation by atmospheric pCO2 suggests that SAMS intensity over eastern Brazil will be suppressed by rising CO2 emissions in the future. Lastly, our record reveals an unprecedented strong and persistent wet period during Marine Isotope Stage 6 driven by anomalously strong trade winds.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; South American Monsoon System (SAMS)
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  • 186
    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: A new microphysical cirrus model to simulate ice crystal nucleation, depositional growth, and gravitational settling is described. The model tracks individual simulation ice particles in a vertical column of air and allows moisture and heat profiles to be affected by turbulent diffusion. Ice crystal size- and supersaturation-dependent deposition coefficients are employed in a one-dimensional model framework. This enables the detailed simulation of microphysical feedbacks influencing the outcome of ice nucleation processes in cirrus. The use of spheroidal water vapor fluxes enables the prediction of primary ice crystal shapes once microscopic models describing the vapor uptake on the surfaces of cirrus ice crystals are better constrained. Two applications addressing contrail evolution and cirrus formation demonstrate the potential of the model for advanced studies of aerosol-cirrus interactions. It is shown that supersaturation in, and microphysical and optical properties of, cirrus are affected by variable deposition coefficients. Vertical variability in ice supersaturation, ice crystal sedimentation, and high turbulent diffusivity all tend to decrease homogeneously nucleated ice number mixing ratios over time, but low ice growth efficiencies counteract this tendency. Vertical mixing induces a tendency to delay the onset of homogeneous freezing. In situations of sustained large-scale cooling, natural cirrus clouds may often form in air surrounding persistent contrails.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; cirrus ; cloud model ; microphysics
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  • 187
    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: Upwelling ocean currents associated with oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) supply nutrients fuelling intense marine productivity. Perturbations in the extent and intensity of OMZs are projected in the future, but it is currently uncertain how this will impact fluxes of redox-sensitive trace metal micronutrients to the surface ocean. Here we report seawater concentrations of Fe, Mn, Co, Cd, and Ni alongside the redox indicator iodide/iodate in the Peruvian OMZ during the 2015 El Niño event. The El Niño drove atypical upwelling of oxygen-enriched water over the Peruvian Shelf, resulting in oxidized iodine and strongly depleted Fe (II), total dissolved Fe, and reactive particulate Fe concentrations relative to non-El Niño conditions. Observations of Fe were matched by the redox-sensitive micronutrients Co and Mn, but not by non-redox-sensitive Cd and Ni. These observations demonstrate that oxygenation of OMZs significantly reduces water column inventories of redox-sensitive micronutrients, with potential impacts on ocean productivity.
    Keywords: 551 ; iron ; trace metals ; oxygen minimum zone ; El Niño ; eastern tropical south pacific ; shelf source
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  • 188
    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: Heat transport in natural porous media, such as aquifers or streambeds, is generally modeled assuming local thermal equilibrium (LTE) between the fluid and solid phases. Yet, the mathematical and hydrogeological conditions and implications of this simplification have not been fully established for natural porous media. To quantify the occurrence and effects of local thermal disequilibrium during heat transport, we systematically compared thermal breakthrough curves from a LTE with those calculated using a local thermal nonequilibrium (LTNE) model, explicitly allowing for different temperatures in the fluid and solid phases. For the LTNE model, we developed a new correlation for the heat transfer coefficient representative of the conditions in natural porous aquifers using six published experimental results. By conducting an extensive parameter study (〉50,000 simulations), we show that LTNE effects do not occur for grain sizes smaller than 7 mm or for groundwater flow velocities that are slower than 1.6 m day−1. The limits of LTE are likely exceeded in gravel aquifers or in the vicinity of pumped bores. For such aquifers, the use of a LTE model can lead to an underestimation of the effective thermal dispersion by a factor of up to 30 or higher, while the advective thermal velocity remains unaffected for most conditions. Based on a regression analysis of the simulation results, we provide a criterion which can be used to determine if LTNE effects are expected for particular conditions.
    Keywords: 551 ; local thermal nonequilibrium ; thermal dispersion ; modeling advective heat transport ; local thermal equilibrium ; porous aquifer
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  • 189
    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: Lake Victoria is a shared water resource between Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania, which is the second largest freshwater lake in the world. It has long since suffered from the consequences of overexploitation of its resources, mainly fish stocks, and increasingly high pollution. The closure of 58% of the fish processing plants (FPPs) is attributed to the declining fish stocks due to overfishing and pollution in particular. The installation and operation of a pilot membrane bioreactor (MBR) in Kisumu, Kenya, adopts an integrated approach by providing an integral, sustainable, cost-effective, and robust solution for water sanitation, which also meets the demand for clean water in the fish processing industry, aquaculture, and irrigation. The innovative system comprises a pilot MBR coupled with a recirculation aquaculture system (RAS). The RAS is able to recirculate 90% to 95% of its water volume; only the water loss through evaporation and drum filter back flushing has to be replaced. To compensate for this water deficit, the MBR treats domestic wastewater for further reuse. Additionally, excess purified water is used for irrigating a variety of local vegetables and could also be used in FPPs. The pilot-scale MBR plant with around 6 m2 submerged commercial polyethersulfone (PES) membranes provides treated water in basic agreement with Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) standards for irrigation and aquaculture, showing no adverse effects on tilapia fingerlings production. A novel membrane module with a low-fouling coating is operating stably but has not yet shown improved performance compared to the commercial one. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2020;16:942–954. © 2020 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC)
    Keywords: 333.9 ; Membrane bioreactor ; Low-fouling membrane coating ; Recirculating aquaculture system ; Domestic wastewater ; Water reuse
    Language: English
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  • 190
    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: In this study we demonstrate the potential of a kinetic energy backscatter scheme for use in global ocean simulations. Ocean models commonly employ (bi)harmonic eddy viscosities causing excessive dissipation of kinetic energy in eddy-permitting simulations. Overdissipation not only affects the smallest resolved scales but also the generation of eddies through baroclinic instabilities, impacting the entire wave number spectrum. The backscatter scheme returns part of this overdissipated energy back into the resolved flow. We employ backscatter in the FESOM2 multiresolution ocean model with a quasi-uniform 1/4° mesh. In multidecadal ocean simulations, backscatter increases eddy activity by a factor 2 or more, moving the simulation closer to observational estimates of sea surface height variability. Moreover, mean sea surface height, temperature, and salinity biases are reduced. This amounts to a globally averaged bias reduction of around 10% for each field, which is even larger in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. However, in some regions such as the coastal Kuroshio, backscatter leads to a slight overenergizing of the flow and, in the Antarctic, to an unrealistic reduction of sea ice. Some of the bias increases can be reduced by a retuning of the model, and we suggest related adjustments to the backscatter scheme. The backscatter simulation is about 2.5 times as expensive as a simulation without backscatter. Most of the increased cost is due to a halving of the time step to accommodate higher simulated velocities.
    Keywords: 551.46 ; ocean kinetic energy backscatter ; subgrid eddy parametrization ; inverse energy cascade ; viscosity closure ; eddy-permitting resolution
    Language: English
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  • 191
    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: Wetlands such as bogs, swamps, or freshwater marshes are hotspots of biodiversity. For 5.1 million km2 of inland wetlands, the dynamics of area and water storage, which strongly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services, were simulated using the global hydrological model WaterGAP. For the first time, the impacts of both human water use and man-made reservoirs (WUR) and future climate change (CC) on wetlands around the globe were quantified. WUR impacts are concentrated in arid/semiarid regions, where WUR decreased mean wetland water storage by more than 5% on 8.2% of the mean wetland area during 1986–2005 (Am), with highest decreases in groundwater depletion area. Using output of three climate models, CC impacts on wetlands were quantified, distinguishing unavoidable impacts [i.e., at 2 °C global warming (GW)] from avoidable impacts (difference between 3 °C and 2 °C impacts). Even unavoidable CC impacts are projected to be much larger than WUR impacts, also in arid/semiarid regions. On most wetland area with reliable estimates, avoidable CC impacts are more than twice as large as unavoidable impacts. In case of 2 °C GW, half of Am is estimated to be unaffected by mean storage changes of more than 5%, but only one third in case of 3 °C GW. Temporal variability of water storage will increase for most wetlands. Wetlands in dry regions will be affected the most, particularly by water storage decreases in the dry season. Different from wealthier countries, low-income countries will dominantly suffer from a decrease in wetland water storage due to CC.
    Keywords: 333.7 ; climate change ; water storage ; water use ; wetland ; reservoirs ; global
    Language: English
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  • 192
    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: Many soil types in the federal state of Schleswig-Holstein (North Germany) are naturally compacted in the subsoil due to pedo- or geogenic processes (42% of the area) but, due to anthropogenic impacts, the percentage of subsoil compaction has increased further. To determine the overall subsoil compaction status of seven representative soil types in Schleswig-Holstein (≤ 60 cm depth), air capacity (AC), saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and effective bulk density (ρBeff) of 342 soil profiles from the database of the State Agency for Agriculture, Environment and Rural Areas of Schleswig-Holstein (LLUR) were evaluated with respect to critical threshold values (AC 〈 5 Vol.-%, Ks 〈 10 cm day−1, ρBeff 〉 1.7 g cm−3). The compaction status was classified into Classes I–IV, where a harmful subsoil compaction was assumed if both values of AC and Ks simultaneously exceeded (are smaller than) their threshold value (Class IV). Subsoils of (Stagnic) Luvisols and Stagnosols derived from glacial till, as well as those of Fluvic Gleyic Stagnosols of the marshlands, showed a high degree of natural compaction (46%–65% in Class IV). In contrast, sandy subsoil horizons of Podzols and Brunic Arenosols derived from glacifluvial sediments were rarely compacted (〈 13% in Class IV), and possessed the lowest ρBeff, which were similar to Anthrosols. Only 5%–18% of their subsoil horizons exceeded the critical value of 1.7 g cm−3. Additionally, anthropogenic subsoil compaction of at least 6%–10% was verified for (Stagnic) Luvisols and Stagnosols.
    Keywords: 631.4 ; air capacity ; hydraulic conductivity ; soil database ; subsoil compaction
    Language: English
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  • 193
    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: As the Arctic coast erodes, it drains thermokarst lakes, transforming them into lagoons, and, eventually, integrates them into subsea permafrost. Lagoons represent the first stage of a thermokarst lake transition to a marine setting and possibly more saline and colder upper boundary conditions. In this research, borehole data, electrical resistivity surveying, and modeling of heat and salt diffusion were carried out at Polar Fox Lagoon on the Bykovsky Peninsula, Siberia. Polar Fox Lagoon is a seasonally isolated water body connected to Tiksi Bay through a channel, leading to hypersaline waters under the ice cover. The boreholes in the center of the lagoon revealed floating ice and a saline cryotic bed underlain by a saline cryotic talik, a thin ice-bearing permafrost layer, and unfrozen ground. The bathymetry showed that most of the lagoon had bedfast ice in spring. In bedfast ice areas, the electrical resistivity profiles suggested that an unfrozen saline layer was underlain by a thick layer of refrozen talik. The modeling showed that thermokarst lake taliks can refreeze when submerged in saltwater with mean annual bottom water temperatures below or slightly above 0°C. This occurs, because the top-down chemical degradation of newly formed ice-bearing permafrost is slower than the refreezing of the talik. Hence, lagoons may precondition taliks with a layer of ice-bearing permafrost before encroachment by the sea, and this frozen layer may act as a cap on gas migration out of the underlying talik.
    Keywords: 551.48 ; thermokarst lake ; talik ; lagoon ; subsea permafrost ; salt diffusion ; Siberia
    Language: English
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  • 194
    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: The concept of ecosystem services (ES) creates understanding of the value of ecosystems for human well-being. With regard to soils, it provides a framework for assessments of soil contributions and soil management impacts. However, a lack of standardization impedes comparisons between assessment studies and the building of synthesis information. The Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES) is an important step forward, although its application to soils is not without difficulty. CICES version 5.1 defines 83 ES classes, of which only some are relevant for soils. We compiled two subsets of CICES classes: one set of soil-related ES comprising 29 services defined as directly and quantifiably controlled by soils and their properties, processes and functions, and another set of 40 ES defined as being affected by agricultural soil management. Additionally, we conducted a systematic literature review, searching for published lists of soil-related ES that claim completeness. We identified 11 relevant lists. Of all CICES classes, 12 were included in more than 75% of the lists, whereas another 36 classes were included in 25–75% of them. Regarding the suitability of the CICES classification for addressing ES in the context of soils and their agricultural management, we identified constraints, such as overlaps, gaps, and highly specific or very broad class definitions. Close cooperation between the soil research and ES communities could ensure better consideration of soils in future CICES updates. A shortlist of 25 service classes affected by agricultural soil management facilitates a standardized approach and may function as checklists in impact assessments. Highlights: Standardized definitions are needed to allow meta-analysis of ecosystem service studies and improve assessments. CICES defines 83 detailed classes of ecosystem services, suggested as a “default list”. We identified 29 classes as soil related and 40 classes as affected by agricultural soil management. Both subsets facilitate ecosystem service assessments in soil research and comparability of results.
    Keywords: 631.4 ; agriculture ; arable ; CICES ; impact area ; impact assessment ; soil functions ; soil management ; soil properties ; standardization
    Language: English
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  • 195
    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: The biogeochemical functioning of soils (e.g., soil carbon stabilization and nutrient cycling) is determined at the interfaces of specific soil structures (e.g., aggregates, particulate organic matter (POM) and organo-mineral associations). With the growing accessibility of spectromicroscopic techniques, there is an increase in nano- to microscale analyses of biogeochemical interfaces at the process scale, reaching from the distribution of elements and isotopes to the localization of microorganisms. A widely used approach to study intact soil structures is the fixation and embedding of intact soil samples in resin and the subsequent analyses of soil cross-sections using spectromicroscopic techniques. However, it is still challenging to link such microscale approaches to larger scales at which normally bulk soil analyses are conducted. Here we report on the use of laboratory imaging Vis–NIR spectroscopy on resin embedded soil sections and a procedure for supervised image classification to determine the microscale soil structure arrangement, including the quantification of soil organic matter fractions. This approach will help to upscale from microscale spectromicroscopic techniques to the centimetre and possibly pedon scale. Thus, we demonstrate a new approach to integrate microscale soil analyses into pedon-scale conceptual and experimental approaches. Highlights: Quantification of soil constituents using Vis-NIR spectroscopy. New approach to use resin embedded soil core sections with intact structure. Reproducible quantification of soil constituents important for soil carbon storage. Vis-NIR as promising tool for upscaling from microscale to pdeon scale.
    Keywords: 631.4 ; Alaska ; HySpex ; mineral associated organic matter ; occluded particulate organic matter ; particulate organic matter ; pedogenic iron oxides ; supervised image classification
    Language: English
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  • 196
    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: Nowadays, national and international requirements and laws emphasize the “natural” development of river-floodplain systems. One goal is to increase the connectivity between the river and its floodplains and thus reactivate floodplains as flooding areas, which potentially increases the mobility of fine sediments. The objective of this study is to analyze the long-term effects of reactivated floodplains on the mobility of floodplain deposits of small rivers based on two river restoration scenarios: elevating the riverbed or lowering the floodplains. Past channel fixation and degradation as well as the subsequent increase in the floodplain elevation led to the decoupling of the channel and floodplain morphodynamics associated with the reduction of the habitat connectivity. Here, the floodplain sedimentation rates were determined using a numerical model based on the Delft3D software. The novelty of these numerical investigations is the morphological long-term analysis over timescales of decades, which is not comparable to other short-term hydrodynamic and morphodynamic studies for small meandering lowland rivers. The results of 11 river restoration scenarios show that lowering the floodplain and raising the riverbed elevation both lead to an increase in the fine sediment deposition on the floodplain. However, lowering the floodplain elevation is generally more effective. Based on the numerical model results and the assumption of a fixed river channel, only anthropogenic activity might have increased the amount of fine sediments deposited on floodplains and has accelerated the decoupling of the floodplains from the riverbed in the past centuries.
    Keywords: 551.48 ; Reactivation of floodplain sediment deposits ; Numerical modelling ; River restorations
    Language: English
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  • 197
    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: Winter chill is expected to decrease in many of the suitable growing regions for deciduous trees. Argentinean North Patagonia hosts extensive fruit tree cultivation, which provides an important contribution to both local and global food security. Using historic records from 11 weather stations from North Patagonia, we evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on fruit tree cultivation. We assess winter chill and seasonal heat availability, and the risk of spring frost events based on outputs from 15 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and two future time periods (represented by central years 2050 and 2085). Metrics were estimated for 47 years of records from the weather stations, as well as typical conditions for 10 past scenarios and 60 future GCM and RCP projections. Scenarios consisted of 100 plausible annual temperature records produced by a weather generator. Results suggest that fruit tree dormancy in Argentinean North Patagonia will not be strongly affected by climate change. Compared to the past, winter chill may only decrease by 9% in the RCP4.5 scenario by 2050 in the northeastern and eastern subregion, while in the central-south and west the reduction seems unlikely to exceed 6% by the same RCP scenario and year. Our models project stable high growing season heat in the northeastern and eastern regions, and major increases in the south by 2085 in both RCP scenarios. Projections of spring frost events varied between 0 and about 25 hours below 0°C depending on the site. Increasing heat availability may create opportunities for fruit and nut growers to introduce new species and cultivars to the region. Our results provide a basis for planning such introductions and for enabling growers to exploit new opportunities for producing temperate orchard crops beyond their traditional ranges.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; chill models ; chill requirement ; heat requirement ; Prunus sp. ; spring frost risk ; temperate trees ; warm winters
    Language: English
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  • 198
    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: Cities are the drivers of socioeconomic innovation and are also forced to address the accelerating risk of failure in providing essential services such as water supply today and in the future. Here, we investigate the resilience of urban water supply security, which is defined in terms of the services that citizens receive. The resilience of services is determined by the availability and robustness of critical system elements or “capitals” (water resources, infrastructure, finances, management efficacy, and community adaptation). We translate quantitative information about this portfolio of capitals from seven contrasting cities on four continents into parameters of a coupled system dynamics model. Water services are disrupted by recurring stochastic shocks, and we simulate the dynamics of impact and recovery cycles. Resilience emerges under various constraints, expressed in terms of each city's capital portfolio. Systematic assessment of the parameter space produces the urban water resilience landscape, and we determine the position of each city along a continuous gradient from water insecure and nonresilient to secure and resilient systems. In several cities stochastic disturbance regimes challenge steady-state conditions and drive system collapse. While water insecure and nonresilient cities risk being pushed into a poverty trap, cities which have developed excess capitals risk being trapped in rigidity and crossing a tipping point from high to low services and collapse. Where public services are insufficient, community adaptation improves water security and resilience to varying degrees. Our results highlight the need for resilience thinking in the governance of urban water systems under global change pressures.
    Keywords: 333.9 ; systems dynamics modeling ; coupled natural-human-engineered systems (CNHES) ; adaptive capacity ; water management ; stochastic shocks ; Capital Portfolio Approach (CPA)
    Language: English
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  • 199
    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: Tunnel valleys are assumed to form near the margin of ice sheets. Hence, they can be used to reconstruct the dynamics of former ice margins. The detailed formation and infill of tunnel valleys, however, are still not well understood. Here, we present a dense grid of high-resolution 2D multi-channel reflection seismic data from the German sector of the southeastern North Sea imaging tunnel valleys in very great detail. Three tunnel valley systems were traced over distances ranging between 11 and 21 km. All tunnel valleys are completely filled and buried. They differ in incision depth, incision width and number of incisions. The tunnel valleys cut 130–380 m deep into Neogene, Palaeogene and Cretaceous sediments; they show a lower V-shaped and an upper U-shaped morphology. For individual tunnel valleys, the overall incision direction ranges from east–west to northeast–southwest. Two tunnel valleys intersect at an oblique angle without reuse of the thalweg. These valleys incise into a pre-existing glaciotectonic complex consisting of thrust sheets in the northwest of the study area. The analysis of the glaciotectonic complex and the tunnel valleys leads us to assume that we identified several marginal positions of (pre-)Elsterian ice lobes in the southeastern North Sea.
    Keywords: 551 ; 622.15 ; glaciogenic unconformity ; glaciotectonic complex ; ice margin ; Quaternary succession ; tunnel valleys
    Language: English
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  • 200
    Publication Date: 2021-10-15
    Description: Within a rapidly changing Arctic climate system, snow on sea ice is an important climate parameter. A common method to derive snow depth on an Arctic-wide scale is based on passive microwave satellite observations. However, the uncertainties of this method are not well constrained. In this study, we estimate the influence of geophysical parameters, including ice, snow, and atmospheric properties on passive microwave snow depth retrievals using a Monte Carlo uncertainty estimation. The results are based on model simulations from the Microwave Emission Model for Layered Snowpacks, the SNOWPACK model, and from the Passive and Active Microwave TRAnsfer model. All simulations are based on in situ observations obtained during the N-ICE2015 campaign. The average uncertainty in potential snow depth retrievals is between 11% and 19%, depending on the microwave frequencies used and increases with increasing snow depth. For lower-frequency retrievals (including 6.9 GHz), unknown snow properties are the strongest source of uncertainty while for higher-frequency retrievals (including 36.5 GHz), the contribution of ice, snow properties, and clouds is equally strong.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; snow ; remote sensing ; modeling ; Arctic
    Language: English
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