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  • Articles  (323)
  • climate change  (133)
  • acidification  (98)
  • environment  (72)
  • Global Warming
  • Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering  (289)
  • Economics  (64)
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  • 1
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    Trade Liberalization versus Climate Change Policy for Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Agriculture: Some Insights from Norway (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-08-11
    Description: Using a mathematical programming model of Norwegian agriculture, we explore interconnections between trade liberalization and reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We show that the Doha Round proposals for a new agreement on agriculture through the World Trade Organization would not generate significant reductions in emissions. Further trade liberalization would reduce emissions by cutting agricultural production but would not change production methods. Imposing a carbon tax would lead both to a reduction in output and the extensification of production. In contrast, if farmers are allowed to claim a credit for carbon sequestration the effect is to intensify agricultural production.
    Keywords: F18 - Trade and Environment, Q17 - Agriculture in International Trade, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 2040-5790
    Electronic ISSN: 2040-5804
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 2
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    Dealing with Uncertainty in Agent-Based Simulation: Farm-Level Modeling of Adaptation to Climate Change in Southwest Germany (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
    Description: Climate change will most likely confront agricultural producers with natural, economic, and political conditions that have not previously been observed and are largely uncertain. As a consequence, extrapolation from past data reaches its limits, and a process-based analysis of farmer adaptation is required. Simulation of changes in crop yields using crop growth models is a first step in that direction. However, changes in crop yields are only one pathway through which climate change affects agricultural production. A meaningful process-based analysis of farmer adaptation requires a whole-farm analysis at the farm level. We use a highly disaggregated mathematical programming model to analyze farm-level climate change adaptation for a mountainous area in southwest Germany. Regional-level results are obtained by simulating each full-time farm holding in the study area. We address parameter uncertainty and model underdetermination using a cautious calibration approach and a comprehensive uncertainty analysis. We deal with the resulting computational burden using efficient experimental designs and high-performance computing. We show that in our study area, shifted crop management time slots can have potentially significant effects on agricultural supply, incomes, and various policy objectives promoted under German and European environmental policy schemes. The simulated effects are robust against model uncertainty and underline the importance of a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts beyond merely looking at crop yield changes. Our simulations demonstrate how farm-level models can contribute to a process-based analysis of climate change adaptation if they are embedded into a systematic framework for treating inherent model uncertainty.
    Keywords: C61 - Optimization Techniques ; Programming Models ; Dynamic Analysis, C63 - Computational Techniques, Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 3
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    Irrigation Decisions for Major West Coast Crops: Water Scarcity and Climatic Determinants (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: This article uses the 2007 Farm and Ranch Irrigation Survey database developed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to assess the impact of water scarcity and climate on irrigation decisions for producers of specialty crops, wheat, and forage crops. We estimate an irrigation management model for major crops in the West Coast (California, Oregon, and Washington), which includes a farm-level equation of irrigated share and crop-specific equations of technology adoption and water application rate (orchard/vineyard, vegetable, wheat, alfalfa, hay, and pasture). We find that economic and physical water scarcity, climate, and extreme weather, such as frost, extreme heat, and drought, significantly impact producers’ irrigation decisions. Producers use sprinkler technologies or additional water applications to mitigate risk of crop damage from extreme weather. Water application rates are least responsive to surface water cost or groundwater well depth for producers of orchard/vineyard. Water supply institutions influence producers’ irrigation decisions. Producers who receive water from federal agencies use higher water application rates and are less likely to adopt water-saving irrigation technologies for some crops. Institutional arrangements, including access to distinct water sources (surface or ground) and whether surface water cost is fee based, also affect the responsiveness of water application rates to changes in surface water cost. The analysis provides valuable information about how producers in irrigated agricultural production systems would respond and adapt to water pricing policies and climate change.
    Keywords: Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets, Q15 - Land Ownership and Tenure ; Land Reform ; Land Use ; Irrigation, Q16 - R&D ; Agricultural Technology ; Agricultural Extension Services, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 4
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    An Introduction to the Green Paradox: The Unintended Consequences of Climate Policies (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-07-18
    Description: How important is the Green Paradox? We address this question in three ways. First, we present a simple model explaining how announcing a future climate policy may increase carbon emissions today – the Green Paradox effect. This effect is a result of fossil fuel producers increasing their extraction today as a response to a reduction in future resource rents. Second, we examine the theoretical and empirical literature to assess whether green paradoxes are likely to occur, and if they are, whether they are big enough to be of concern for policy makers. We consider several factors that affect the existence of the green paradox, including long-term extraction costs, short-term extraction capacities, the mix of policy instruments, and potential spatial carbon leakage to countries that have no climate policy. We find that these and other factors can sometimes strengthen, but mostly weaken, the case for concern about the green paradox. Third, we identify the lessons the literature offers for policy makers. We argue that in designing climate policy, policy makers need to consider the supply side of the fossil fuel market.
    Keywords: H23 - Externalities ; Redistributive Effects ; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies, Q31 - Demand and Supply, Q38 - Government Policy, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 1750-6816
    Electronic ISSN: 1750-6824
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Political Science , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 5
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    Drought Index Insurance for the Central Valley Project in California (2016)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-08-20
    Description: A multi-year drought has taken a severe toll on the agricultural economy of California’s Central Valley. Index insurance is an instrument with the potential to protect water users from economic losses due to periodic water shortages. An index insurance product based on the Sacramento Index and adapted to the Central Valley Project water supply is proposed. To address the potential for intertemporal adverse selection, three product designs are suggested: (1) "early bird" insurance; (2) variable premium insurance; and (3) variable deductible insurance. The performance of the designs are assessed using loss functions from the Westlands Water District in the San Joaquin Valley.
    Keywords: Q14 - Agricultural Finance, Q15 - Land Ownership and Tenure ; Land Reform ; Land Use ; Irrigation, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 2040-5790
    Electronic ISSN: 2040-5804
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 6
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    Quality Matters More Than Quantity: Asymmetric Temperature Effects on Crop Yield and Quality Grade (2016)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-07-09
    Description: Climate change affects agriculture by altering not only output quantity, but also crop quality. We quantify the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture through changes in both quantity and quality, where quality is measured by crop grades. Our model controls for methodological issues regarding sample selection, aggregation, phenology, and nonlinearity. The empirical application to Japanese rice production indicates that temperature effects are asymmetric: quantity is especially vulnerable to cold, whereas quality is vulnerable to extremely high temperature. Using these results, we simulate the effect of global warming, and we find that warming (a 3 °C increase) increases farm revenues by improving yield but decreases revenues as a result of deteriorating quality. The net effect is negative, suggesting that quality matters more than quantity. The negative effect, however, can be mitigated by shifting cultivation periods and/or regions. Overall, our results suggest that the estimated impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies could be severely misleading unless quality is considered.
    Keywords: L15 - Information and Product Quality ; Standardization and Compatibility, Q10 - General, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 7
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    Optimal Directions for Directional Distance Functions: An Exploration of Potential Reductions of Greenhouse Gases (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-04-18
    Description: This article explores the reduction potential of greenhouse gases for major pollution-emitting countries of the world using nonparametric productivity measurement methods and directional distance functions. In contrast to the existing literature, we apply optimization methods to endogenously determine optimal directions for the efficiency analysis. These directions represent the compromise of output enhancement and emissions reduction. The results show that for reasonable directions the adoption of best practices would lead to sizable emission reductions in a range of approximately 20% compared with current levels.
    Keywords: C14 - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods, D24 - Production ; Cost ; Capital and Total Factor Productivity ; Capacity, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 8
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    Regulation of Natural Gas in the United States, Canada, and Europe: Prospects for a Low Carbon Fuel (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-01-29
    Description: The United States and Canada have seen a competitive and technological revolution in unconventional natural gas production in the 21 st Century—dramatically lowering the price of gas and displacing high-carbon coal with low-carbon gas for power generation. This gas revolution came from an earlier revolution in the regulation of gas pipelines, which ended the obstruction of gas markets by pipeline interests. Neither revolution has spread to Europe, where increasingly protectionist EU legislation has effectively blocked competitive pipeline entry and related gas markets. As a result, unconventional gas is untapped, coal displaces gas for power generation, and oil-linked gas prices have cost EU consumers a staggering $425 billion more than their US counterparts have paid since 2009 for about the same quantity of gas. Europe faces a serious institutional challenge to adopting the kind of pipeline regulation that facilitates the competitive flow of natural gas supplies and the accompanying lower carbon emissions. ( JEL : D23, K23, L14, L51, L95, N70, Q54)
    Keywords: D23 - Organizational Behavior ; Transaction Costs ; Property Rights, K23 - Regulated Industries and Administrative Law, L14 - Transactional Relationships ; Contracts and Reputation ; Networks, L51 - Economics of Regulation, L95 - Gas Utilities ; Pipelines ; Water Utilities, N70 - General, International, or Comparative, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 1750-6816
    Electronic ISSN: 1750-6824
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Political Science , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 9
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    A Global Perspective on the Future of Natural Gas: Resources, Trade, and Climate Constraints (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-01-29
    Description: Natural gas plays an important role in the global energy system as an input to power generation, heating, and industry. This article identifies key drivers and uncertainties for natural gas markets in the coming decades. These include the availability of natural gas from conventional and unconventional sources, the role of international trade, and the impact of climate policies. We build on model-based research as well as an up-to-date survey of natural gas resource availability. We find that natural gas is an abundant fossil fuel and that the Asia-Pacific region will be most important in future global natural gas markets, especially under stringent international climate change mitigation. This means that an increasingly large share of future natural gas trade flows and infrastructure expansions will be directed to the Asia-Pacific region and that the role of liquefied natural gas will continue to increase globally. ( JEL : C61, L71, Q33, Q37, Q54)
    Keywords: C61 - Optimization Techniques ; Programming Models ; Dynamic Analysis, L71 - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels, Q33 - Resource Booms, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 1750-6816
    Electronic ISSN: 1750-6824
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Political Science , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 10
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    Fiscal Responses after Catastrophes and the Enabling Role of Financial Development (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-01-29
    Description: Natural disasters may constitute a major shock to public finances and debt sustainability because of their impact on output and the need for government response with reconstruction and relief expenses. The question arises of whether governments can use financial development policy as the means to mitigate or insure against this negative fiscal impact. This paper uses a panel vector autoregressive model, estimated on annual data for high- and middle-income countries over 1975–2008, to study the role of debt market development and insurance penetration in enabling fiscal response after catastrophes. The authors find that countries with higher debt market development suffer smaller real consequences from disasters but that their deficits expand further following the mitigating fiscal response. Disasters in countries with high insurance penetration also experience smaller real consequences of disasters but without the need for further deficit expansions. From an ex-post perspective, the availability of insurance could offer the best mitigation approach against the real and fiscal consequences of disasters.
    Keywords: E32 - Business Fluctuations ; Cycles, H50 - General, H60 - General, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0258-6770
    Electronic ISSN: 1564-698X
    Topics: Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 11
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    Distributional Implications of Climate Change in Rural India: A General Equilibrium Approach (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-07-10
    Description: We develop a general equilibrium framework, based on a specific-factors trade model, to quantify the medium-term household welfare impacts of global warming in rural India. Using an hedonic approach grounded in the theory combined with detailed microdata, we estimate that three decades of warming will reduce agricultural productivity in the range of 7%–13%, with the arid northwest of India especially hard hit. Our analysis shows that the proportional welfare cost of climate change is likely to be both modest and evenly distributed across percentiles of the per capita income distribution, but this latter conclusion emerges only when the flexibility of rural wages is taken into account.
    Keywords: Q17 - Agriculture in International Trade, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 12
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    Disagreement and Responses to Climate Change (2011)
    White Horse Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2011-11-01
    Description: The potential harms associated with global climate change demand an urgent response. But at the same time, the nature and extent of both the problem and our proper response to it are continually contested, within the academic community and wider society. What should be the ethical import of this disagreement? In this paper I set out John Rawls' theory of reasonable disagreement as a way of analysing such contestation. On Rawls' account, reasonable disagreement is founded in diversity rather than straightforward error. I argue that many aspects of the scientific and ethical debate on climate change can be usefully viewed from within such a perspective. This raises, I suggest, serious problems for deciding what the human response to global warming must be. Lastly, I survey two responses which might be thought to cope with such pervasive disagreement. Neither, however, is clearly effective. In my conclusion I suggest that reasonable disagreement might be tackled best in a model of deliberative democracy. Such a model, however, does not generate easy answers to the problems of climate change.
    Keywords: climate change ; reasonable disagreement ; political liberalism ; justice ; environmental ethics
    Print ISSN: 0963-2719
    Electronic ISSN: 1752-7015
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Philosophy
    Published by White Horse Press
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  • 13
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    The Possibility of a Joint Communique: My Response to Hourdequin (2011)
    White Horse Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2011-05-01
    Description: This article is a response to Marion Hourdequin, 'Climate, Collective Action and Individual Ethical Obligations', Environmental Values 19 (2010): 443-464. As Hourdequin argues, we have an obligation to reduce our individual emissions of greenhouse gases. This obligation is not, however, to reduce to the level that would be sustainable if everyone else did likewise. We are obligated to make limited reductions in the service of our primary obligation to organise and embrace collective schemes to ensure that everyone reduces emissions and that benefits to the environment are proportionate to the sacrifices made. She and I can agree on the existence of an obligation if she recognises that there is a fundamental difference between the obligations we have to avoid individually harmful actions and our obligations in a tragedy of the commons.
    Keywords: ethics ; tragedy of the commons ; climate change ; obligations ; collective action ; virtue ; greenhouse gases
    Print ISSN: 0963-2719
    Electronic ISSN: 1752-7015
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Philosophy
    Published by White Horse Press
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  • 14
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    Climate Change and the Convergence between ENGOs and Business: On the Loss of Utopian Energies (2011)
    White Horse Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2011-02-01
    Description: The conflicts permeating the environmental debate since the 1960s have mainly involved two actors: multinational companies and international environmental organizations (ENGOs). Today, there are signs that the antagonism is ending with regards to co-operation and strategy. We argue that this convergence is no longer limited to specific joint projects, but is also prevalent at the idea and policy levels. Both actors have begun describing problems in similar terms, articulating the same goals and recommending the same solutions. Such convergence offers advantages in efforts to counteract climate change but also some problems: declining citizen trust in ENGOs, risk of intellectually impoverished environmental and energy debates, and loss of alternate visions and values.
    Keywords: ENGO ; BINGO ; oil industry ; climate change ; organisational environmental discourse
    Print ISSN: 0963-2719
    Electronic ISSN: 1752-7015
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Philosophy
    Published by White Horse Press
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  • 15
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    The Economics of Wine, Weather, and Climate Change (2016)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-02-03
    Description: In this article, we provide an overview of the extensive literature on the impact of weather and climate on grapes and wine, with the goal of identifying how climate change is likely to affect their production. We first discuss the physical impact of weather on vine phenology (i.e., the timing of biological events such as bud break or flowering), berry composition, and yields. Then we examine the economic literature that measures the effects of temperature on wine quality, prices, costs, and profits and, based on this review, infer how climate change will affect these variables. We also describe what has been learned thus far about possible adaptation strategies for grape growers that would allow them to mitigate the economic effects of climate change. We conclude that climate change is likely to produce both winners and losers, with the winners being those located closer to the North and South Poles. There are also likely to be some substantial short-run costs as growers adapt to climate change. Nevertheless, wine making has survived through thousands of years of recorded history, a history that has included significant climate changes. ( JEL : Q13, Q18, Q54)
    Keywords: Q13 - Agricultural Markets and Marketing ; Cooperatives ; Agribusiness, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 1750-6816
    Electronic ISSN: 1750-6824
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Political Science , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 16
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    The Climate Change Adaptation Literature (2016)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2016-02-03
    Description: The December 2015 Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change meetings in Paris are likely to yield a global agreement that will slow the world’s growth of greenhouse gas emissions, but this agreement is unlikely to guarantee a decline in global emissions in the near future. Given this reality, climate change adaptation is an increasingly important topic for discussion and study. Although much research has focused on the macroeconomic relationship between economic growth and temperature at the national and/or annual level, microeconomic analysis also offers valuable insights. This Reflections discusses recent work on household and firm responses to three climate change challenges: increased summer heat, higher food prices, and increased natural disaster risk. ( JEL : Q54)
    Keywords: Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 1750-6816
    Electronic ISSN: 1750-6824
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Political Science , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 17
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    Endogenous farm-type selection, endogenous irrigation, and spatial effects in Ricardian models of climate change (2016)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-02-20
    Description: In the estimation of Ricardian models the endogeneity of adaptation measures is typically ignored. In this article we propose a new estimation strategy that explicitly recognises the endogeneity of the farm type and irrigation to climate. Based on the latest census data on over 270,000 farms in Germany, we estimate a cross-sectional, spatial-IV model that decomposes the effects of climate on farm profitability into direct (unmediated) and indirect (mediated by the variables that reflect adaptation). Our results show that neglecting the endogenous nature of adaptation measures may substantially bias the magnitude of the total effect of climate on farm profitability.
    Keywords: C21 - Cross-Sectional Models ; Spatial Models ; Treatment Effect Models, C25 - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models, C36- Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy, Q51 - Valuation of Environmental Effects, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0165-1587
    Electronic ISSN: 1464-3618
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 18
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    Responsiveness of Crop Yield and Acreage to Prices and Climate (2015)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-12-13
    Description: We investigate the effect of crop price and climate variables on rainfed corn and soybean yields and acreage in the United States using a large panel dataset for the 1977–2007 period. Instrumental variables are used to control for endogeneity of prices in yield and acreage regressions, while allowing for spatially auto-correlated errors. We find that an increase in corn price has a statistically significant positive impact on corn yield, but the effect of soybean price on soybean yields is not statistically significant. The estimated price elasticities of corn yield and acreage are 0.23 and 0.45, respectively. Of the increase in corn supply caused by an increase in corn price, we find that 33.8% is due to price-induced yield enhancement and 66.2% is due to price-induced acreage expansion. We also find that the impact of climate change on corn production ranges from $-$ 7% to $-$ 41% and on soybean ranges from $-$ 8% to $-$ 45%, depending on the climate change scenarios, time horizon, and global climate models used to predict climate change. We show that the aggregate net impact of omitting price variables is an overestimation of the effect of climate change on corn yield by up to 9% and on soybean yield by up to 15%.
    Keywords: Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices, Q15 - Land Ownership and Tenure ; Land Reform ; Land Use ; Irrigation, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 19
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    Looking into the future of agriculture in a changing climate (2011)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2011-11-24
    Description: Looking into the future of agriculture raises three challenging questions: How can agriculture deal with an uncertain future? How do local vulnerabilities and global disparities respond to this uncertain future? How should we prioritise adaptation to overcome the resulting future risks? This paper analyses the broad question of how climate change science may provide some insights into these issues. The data provided for the analysis are the product of our new research on global impacts of climate change in agriculture. The questions are analysed across world regions to provide some thoughts on policy development.
    Keywords: N50 - General, International, or Comparative, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0165-1587
    Electronic ISSN: 1464-3618
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 20
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    Information Manipulation and Climate Agreements (2014)
    Oxford University Press
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    Publication Date: 2014-04-05
    Description: It appears that news media and some pro-environmental organizations have the tendency to accentuate or even exaggerate the damage caused by climate change. This article provides a rationale for this tendency by using a modified International Environmental Agreement (IEA) model with asymmetric information. We find that the information manipulation has an instrumental value, as it ex post induces more countries to participate in an IEA, which will eventually enhance global welfare. From the ex ante perspective, however, the impact that manipulating information has on the level of participation in an IEA and on welfare is ambiguous.
    Keywords: D82 - Asymmetric and Private Information, L82 - Entertainment ; Media, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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  • 21
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    Climate Change and Individual Responsibility: A Reply to Johnson (2011)
    White Horse Press
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    Publication Date: 2011-05-01
    Description: Can unilateral action be an effective response to global climate change? Baylor Johnson worries that a focus on unilateral action by individuals will detract from efforts to secure collective agreements to address the problem. Although Johnson and I agree that individuals have some obligation to reduce their personal emissions, we differ in the degree to which we see personal reductions as effective in spurring broader change. I argue that 'unilateral reductions' can have communicative value and that they can change the structure of collective action problems, making such problems easier to solve. Since collective action problems are much less tractable where individuals abide by the tenets of traditional game theory and much more tractable where individuals are oriented to cooperate and to trust that others will reciprocate, we need moral norms that promote individual restraint in exploitation of the commons, and we ought ourselves to abide by those norms.
    Keywords: collective action ; tragedy of the commons ; climate change ; moral obligation ; unilateral action
    Print ISSN: 0963-2719
    Electronic ISSN: 1752-7015
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Philosophy
    Published by White Horse Press
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  • 22
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    Dynamic Adjustment in US Agriculture under Climate Change (2016)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-04-24
    Description: We construct a stochastic dynamic dual model to investigate the structural adjustment of two aggregate output and three aggregate input categories in US agriculture under stochastic climatic change. More than a century of national annual data (1910–2011) is used in the empirical analysis. No constraints on asset fixity are imposed. Results indicate that, with rational expectations, both output categories as well as all input categories exhibit quasi-fixity in response to market change and stochastic climate change. Crops adjust more than twice as fast as livestock—49% versus 20% of the way toward their long-run equilibrium in one year. Fertilizer adjusts most rapidly toward equilibrium levels (88% in one year), and capital adjusts most slowly (5% in one year). Labor oscillates rather than converging smoothly toward equilibrium; its distance from equilibrium is the same as if it adjusted 59% of the way toward its optimal level in one year. Failing to anticipate climate change dramatically slows the estimated rate of adjustment for two netputs and modestly speeds the rate for two others, thus likely increasing overall adjustment costs. Failing to account for uncertainty in anticipated climate change has little impact on adjustment rates.
    Keywords: Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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    Cutting Carbon, Take Two: A Brief Guide to Federal Electricity-Sector Climate Policy without Cap-and-Trade (2013)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2013-11-22
    Description: This paper explores federal policies, other than a carbon price, for reducing emissions from the electric power sector. These policies fall into two major categories: policies that encourage the development of non- or low-emitting energy sources, and regulatory policies under existing legal authority (primarily the Clean Air Act). The paper provides an overview of policy options and a few concrete proposals, along with a summary of insights from economists on their advantages and disadvantages. Economists generally disfavor investment subsidies, but comparing other policy options, including regulatory approaches, technology mandates, and production subsidies, is complex. Excluding existing clean generation from incentive policies is tempting but can lead to perverse outcomes.
    Keywords: L94 - Electric Utilities, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 2040-5790
    Electronic ISSN: 2040-5804
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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    Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Productivity of U.S. Dairies (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-07-23
    Description: In the United States, climate change is likely to increase average daily temperatures and the frequency of heat waves, which can reduce meat and milk production in animals. Methods that livestock producers use to mitigate thermal stress—including modifications to animal management or housing—tend to increase production costs. We use operation-level economic data coupled with finely-scaled climate data to estimate how the local thermal environment affects the technical efficiency of dairies across the United States. We then use this information to estimate the possible decline in milk production in 2030 resulting from climate change-induced heat stress under the simplifying assumptions that the production technology, location of production, and other factors are held constant. For four climate model scenarios, the results indicate modest heat-stress-related production declines by 2030, with the largest declines occurring in the southern states.
    Keywords: D24 - Production ; Cost ; Capital and Total Factor Productivity ; Capacity, Q12 - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    Extreme Weather and Civil War: Does Drought Fuel Conflict in Somalia through Livestock Price Shocks? (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-07-23
    Description: A growing body of evidence shows a causal relationship between extreme weather events and civil conflict incidence at the global level. We find that this causality is also valid for droughts and local violent conflicts in a within-country setting over a short time frame in the case of Somalia. We estimate that a one standard deviation increase in drought intensity and length raises the likelihood of conflict by 62%. We also find that drought affects conflict through livestock price changes, establishing livestock markets as the primary channel of transmission in Somalia.
    Keywords: D74 - Conflict ; Conflict Resolution ; Alliances, O12 - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development, Q11 - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis ; Prices, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    Climate Policy: Science, Economics, and Extremes (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-07-23
    Description: Climate scientists, and natural scientists more generally, believe that climate change is a major, perhaps the most important, problem facing humankind this century, and that it is increasingly linked to extreme weather events. However, the impression one gets from much of the economic literature, particularly simulations from integrated assessment models used in policy analysis, is that the potential impacts of climate change are not large enough to warrant aggressive mitigation efforts in the near term. Although these models represent an important step in the needed interdisciplinary analysis of climate change by elucidating the links between climate and economy, we argue that they grossly underestimate potential impacts and associated damages because they (and the related policy analyses) fail to adequately capture extreme conditions, catastrophic events, and tipping points that trigger irreversible changes in the climate system, as well as impacts on the natural environment that cannot be monetized. Because the most severe impacts are expected in the later years of this century and beyond, discounting is crucial, and we argue that the appropriate rate is well below market rates. Moreover, we show that in the uniquely long period relevant to climate policy, the irreversibility of climate changes and impacts is more serious than the irreversibility of proposed mitigation measures. We conclude that an aggressive mitigation policy is warranted, one that holds further increases in global mean temperature to the scientific consensus on what is required to avoid the worst impacts, and that such a policy can be achieved at a cost that is well below potential damages. ( JEL : Q54)
    Keywords: Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 1750-6816
    Electronic ISSN: 1750-6824
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Political Science , Economics
    Published by Oxford University Press
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    Reflections: Uncertainty and Decision Making in Climate Change Economics (2014)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-01-28
    Description: Uncertainty is intrinsic to climate change: we know that the climate is changing but not precisely how fast or in what ways. Nor do we understand fully the social and economic consequences of these changes or the options that will be available for reducing climate change. Furthermore, the uncertainty about these issues is not readily quantified in probabilistic terms: we are facing deep uncertainty rather than known risks. We argue that this may render the classical expected utility framework for decision making under uncertainty of limited value for informing climate policy. We review the sources of uncertainty about all aspects of climate change, separate these into scientific and socioeconomic components, and examine their relative importance. Then we review decision-making frameworks that may be more appropriate in the absence of unique probabilities including nonprobabilistic approaches and those based on multiple priors, and we discuss their application in the context of climate change economics. ( JEL : D81, Q54)
    Keywords: D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 1750-6816
    Electronic ISSN: 1750-6824
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Political Science , Economics
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    Rethinking the Water-Food-Climate Nexus and Conflict: An Opportunity Cost Approach (2016)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-12-07
    Description: Much attention has been paid to the potential role that climate and food security has on conflict, especially in the Middle East. However, there has been little critical examination beyond the statistical correlation of events, which demonstrates whether a causal link exists and if it does, what can be done about it. This paper explores the conceptual linkages between food and conflict and attempts to draw attention to the opportunity cost of conflict as the nexus for decision-making in this context.
    Keywords: D74 - Conflict ; Conflict Resolution ; Alliances, Q18 - Agricultural Policy ; Food Policy, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 2040-5790
    Electronic ISSN: 2040-5804
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    What Is the Social Value of Second Generation Biofuels? (2016)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-12-07
    Description: What are second-generation (2G) biofuel technologies worth to global society? A dynamic, economic model is used to assess the impact that introducing 2G biofuels technology has on crops, livestock, biofuels, forestry, and environmental services, as well as greenhouse gas emissions. Under baseline conditions, this amounts to $64 billion and is $84 billion under the optimistic technology case, suggesting that investing in 2G technology could be appropriate. Under greenhouse gas regulation, global valuation more than doubles to $139 and $174 billion, respectively. A flat energy price scenario eliminates the value of 2G technology to society.
    Keywords: Q15 - Land Ownership and Tenure ; Land Reform ; Land Use ; Irrigation, Q42 - Alternative Energy Sources, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 2040-5790
    Electronic ISSN: 2040-5804
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    The Value of Heterogeneous Property Rights and the Costs of Water Volatility (2017)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-01-05
    Description: The system of prior appropriation in the Western Unites States prioritizes property rights for water based on the establishment of beneficial use, creating a hierarchy where rights initiated first are more secure. I estimate the demand for security in water rights through their capitalization in agricultural property markets in the Yakima River Basin, a major watershed in Washington State. All water rights are satisfied in an average year, so the relative value of secure property rights is a function of water supply volatility and the costs of droughts are predominantly born by those with weak rights. In aggregate, security in water rights does not capitalize into property values at the irrigation district level; however, there is heterogeneity in the premium for secure water rights. The lack of a premium for district-level water security is robust to a variety of econometric methods to account for correlated district unobservables, and the null result produces an economically significant upper bound on the value to water security for the district. The ability for farmers to adapt to water supply volatility, as well as expectations about water markets and government infrastructure investment, are leading explanations for the lack of an aggregate premium. These explanations are supported by the pattern of heterogeneity in the water security premium.
    Keywords: Q15 - Land Ownership and Tenure ; Land Reform ; Land Use ; Irrigation, Q21 - Demand and Supply, Q24 - Land, Q25 - Water, Q54 - Climate ; Natural Disasters ; Global Warming
    Print ISSN: 0002-9092
    Electronic ISSN: 1467-8276
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Economics
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    Ebara electron beam process for flue gas cleanup: Plant test results and future development
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    International Journal of Radiation Applications & Instrumentation. Part C, 31 (1988), S. 57-82 
    Details
    ISSN: 1359-0197
    Keywords: Pollution control ; coal ; electric utility ; electron beam ; environment ; nitrogen dioxide ; nitrogen oxides ; sulfur dioxide ; sulfur dioxide ; test plant ; test results
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/1359-0197(88)90109-9
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    The environment and the long run: a comparison of different criteria
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Ricerche Economiche 48 (1994), S. 319-340 
    Details
    ISSN: 0035-5054
    Keywords: Sustainable ; [msc] D90 ; [msc] Q20 ; environment ; growth ; resources
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Economics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0035-5054(94)90011-6
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    Global climate change in the instrumental period
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 23-36 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: climate change ; global precipitation ; global temperature ; global warming ; instrumental data
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90019-1
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    Agriculture's share in the emission of trace gases affecting the climate and some cause-oriented proposals for sufficiently reducing this share
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 95-111 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: acidification ; agriculture ; climate change ; eutrophication ; greenhouse gases
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90027-2
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    An approach for treating the uncertainties in the impact of climate change
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 87-93 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: artificial intelligence ; climate change ; modelling ; potato ; uncertainty
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90026-4
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    Climatic sensitivity of temperate forests
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 237-243 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: climate change ; drought ; forest distribution ; forest production ; temperate forests
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90038-8
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    The carbon budget of Canadian forests: A sensitivity analysis of changes in disturbance regimes, growth rates, and decomposition rates
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 55-61 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: Canada ; biospheric feedback ; carbon cycle ; climate change ; fire
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90022-1
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    Climate change and human history. Some indications from Europe, ad 400-1400
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 37-43 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: Europe ; climate change ; impact ; medieval
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90020-5
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    The impact of climate change on the soil/moisture regime of Scottish mineral soils
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Environmental Pollution 83 (1994), S. 245-250 
    Details
    ISSN: 0269-7491
    Keywords: GIS ; climate change ; moisture ; soil
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0269-7491(94)90039-6
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    Climate change: some likely multiple impacts in Southern Africa
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Food Policy 19 (1994), S. 165-191 
    Details
    ISSN: 0306-9192
    Keywords: Southern Africa ; climate change ; drought
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition , Process Engineering, Biotechnology, Nutrition Technology , Economics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/0306-9192(94)90068-X
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  • 41
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    Geographical Dimensions and Correlates of Trust (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 159-169 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Trust ; geography ; personality ; environment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A sample of 323 residents of New Jersey stratified by neighborhood quality (excellent, good, fair, poor) was gathered to determine if trust in science and technology to protect public health and environment at the societal scale was associated with trust of the local officials, such as the mayor, health officer, developers, mass media, and legislators who are guardians of the local environment. Societal (trust of science and technology) and neighborhood (mayor, health officer) dimensions of trust were found. These societal and neighborhood trust dimensions were weakly correlated. Respondents were divided into four trust-of-authority groups: high societal–high neighborhood, low societal–low neighborhood, high societal–low neighborhood, and low societal–high neighborhood. High societal–high neighborhood trust respondents were older, had lived in the neighborhoods for many years, were not troubled much by neighborhood or societal environmental threats, and had a strong sense of control over their environment. In strong contrast, low societal–low neighborhood trust respondents were relatively young, typically had lived in their present neighborhood for a short time, were troubled by numerous neighborhood and societal environmental threats, did not practice many personal public health practices, and felt little control over their environment.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1006913308651
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    Risk Perceptions, General Environmental Beliefs, and Willingness to Address Climate Change (1999)
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 461-471 
    Details
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Risk perceptions ; climate change ; knowledge ; environmental beliefs
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The research reported here examines the relationship between risk perceptions and willingness to address climate change. The data are a national sample of 1225 mail surveys that include measures of risk perceptions and knowledge tied to climate change, support for voluntary and government actions to address the problem, general environmental beliefs, and demographic variables. Risk perceptions matter in predicting behavioral intentions. Risk perceptions are not a surrogate for general environmental beliefs, but have their own power to account for behavioral intentions. There are four secondary conclusions. First, behavioral intentions regarding climate change are complex and intriguing. People are neither “nonbelievers” who will take no initiatives themselves and oppose all government efforts, nor are they “believers” who promise both to make personal efforts and to vote for every government proposal that promises to address climate change. Second, there are separate demographic sources for voluntary actions compared with voting intentions. Third, recognizing the causes of global warming is a powerful predictor of behavioral intentions independent from believing that climate change will happen and have bad consequences. Finally, the success of the risk perception variables to account for behavioral intentions should encourage greater attention to risk perceptions as independent variables. Risk perceptions and knowledge, however, share the stage with general environmental beliefs and demographic characteristics. Although related, risk perceptions, knowledge, and general environmental beliefs are somewhat independent predictors of behavioral intentions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1007004813446
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    Statistical validation of GCM-simulated climates for the U.S. Great Lakes and the C.I.S. Emba and Ural River basins (1992)
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 6 (1992), S. 69-80 
    Details
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Hydrology ; global circulation models ; statistics ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Many researchers use outputs from large-scale global circulation models of the atmosphere to assess hydrological and other impacts associated with climate change. However, these models cannot capture all climate variations since the physical processes are imperfectly understood and are poorly represented at smaller regional scales. This paper statistically compares model outputs from the global circulation model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory to historical data for the United States' Laurentian Great Lakes and for the Emba and Ural River basins in the Commonwealth of Independent States (C.I.S.). We use maximum entropy spectral analysis to compare model and data time series, allowing us to both assess statistical predictabilities and to describe the time series in both time and frequency domains. This comparison initiates assessments of the model's representation of the real world and suggests areas of model improvement.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01581676
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    Thriving on Turbulence (1999)
    Springer
    Journal of market-focused management 4 (1999), S. 231-257 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-8846
    Keywords: market orientation ; performance ; environment ; turbulence
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract Although there is widespread evidence of links between market orientation and company performance, there is debate over whether the market environment moderates the market orientation-performance relationship. Until now empirical evidence has been limited to the USA, UK and Ghana. This study is based on a large multi-industry sample of firms from New Zealand, a more turbulent country-economy. The results show that although environment can have a direct (and often negative) effect on performance, it can also have a positive moderating effect on the relationship between market orientation and performance. This suggests that more market-oriented firms may actually thrive in more turbulent environments.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1009827103329
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    Initial basis for a national planning model (1984)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 329-334 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: nation ; technology ; economics ; environment ; tradeoff's ; policy
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Analysis of pending national policy takes on greater importance each day to supply policy makers with much needed data on the overall economic effect such policies will have on total employment, income, output, tax revenues, and the general price level throughout the economy. This short paper examines the potential for integration of existing modeling technology into a meaningful national planning model to provide a sound set of economic indices leading to enhanced market efficiency and resource use. Initial efforts at integrated modeling and analysis are described, together with indications of their levels of success in replicating the existing economic environment. Emphasis is placed on determination of shadow prices in a growing economy and their incorporation into the systematic development of a national planning model.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01874747
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    Parallel decomposition of large-scale stochastic nonlinear programs (1996)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 64 (1996), S. 39-65 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Decomposition ; economics ; environment ; parallel computation ; stochastic programming
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Many practical decision problems involve both nonlinear relationships and uncertainties. The resulting stochastic nonlinear programs become quite difficult to solve as the number of possible scenarios increases. In this paper, we provide a decomposition method for problems in which nonlinear constraints appear within periods. We also show how the method extends to lower bounding refinements of the set of scenarios when the random data are independent from period to period. We then apply the method to a stochastic model of the U.S. economy based on the Global 2100 method developed by Manne and Richels.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02187640
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    Constraints on social dilemmas: An institutional approach (1984)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 183-200 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Tradeoffs ; decisions ; objectives ; games ; policies ; environment ; acid rain
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Many contemporary political and economic problems have attributes of social dilemmas. These dilemmas are simply characterized as settings in which individuals have a dominant strategy to not cooperate in collective action. However, this choice results in a Pareto-inferior outcome. Likewise, a dominated strategy exists that results in a Pareto-superior outcome. Where cooperation is absent, this problem has been described as ann-person prisoner's dilemma. This paper discusses the environmental problem of acid rain as such a social dilemma. Relying on a series of laboratory experimental settings, the argument is that many social dilemmas can be resolved through the construction of institutional mechanisms allowing for the coordination of the participant's joint strategies. Policy analysts in particular can profit from focusing on institutional solutions to social dilemmas.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01874738
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    Interconnected games and international environmental problems, II (1994)
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 54 (1994), S. 97-117 
    Details
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Keywords: Modelling ; interconnection ; side payments ; game theory ; environment ; transboundary pollution ; multiple objective games ; repeated games ; tensor games ; tradeoff ; Pareto equilibrium ; Nash equilibrium ; Folk theorem ; prisoners' dilemma ; JEL C70 ; Q28
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Mathematics , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Some features of international environmental problems are considered. A basic problem is to induce countries to adopt a cooperative approach. One of the instruments to induce countries to cooperate is an exchange of concessions in fields of relative strengths, such as swapping trade concessions for cooperation on international environmental problems. This instrument will be modelled in this paper with tensor games. Both tradeoff and non-tradeoff tensor games will be addressed, with emphasis on tradeoff tensor games with linear strict weights. The relationship between the Pareto equilibria of a non-tradeoff tensor game and the Nash equilibria of the associated tradeoff tensor games will be studied. Due to structural similarities between tensor games and repeated multiple objective games, some attention will also be paid to the latter. Relationships between objects related to Folk theorems for the tradeoff tensor game with completely additive weights and the corresponding objects for its constituting isolated games will be studied. Since many international environmental problems have prisoners' dilemma characteristics, it is analyzed how interconnection may enhance cooperation in prisoners' dilemma games.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02031729
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    Henryk Arctowski station
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Annals of Tourism Research 21 (1994), S. 333-343 
    Details
    ISSN: 0160-7383
    Keywords: Antarctica ; Antarctique ; environment ; environnement ; tourism ; tourisme
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0160-7383(94)90049-3
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    The ''common pool'' problem in tourism landscapes
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Annals of Tourism Research 21 (1994), S. 596-611 
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    ISSN: 0160-7383
    Keywords: bien commun ; common property ; environment ; land use ; landscape ; paysage ; scenery ; utilisation terrienne
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0160-7383(94)90122-8
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    Electron beam treatment of stack gases
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Radiation Physics and Chemistry 25 (1985), S. 35-45 
    Details
    ISSN: 0146-5724
    Keywords: NO"x ; Pollution control ; SO"2 ; coal ; electric utility ; electron beam ; environment ; nitrogen oxides ; sulfur dioxide
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/0146-5724(85)90247-X
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    Radiation technology for environmental conservation
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Radiation Physics and Chemistry 22 (1983), S. 91-97 
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    ISSN: 0146-5724
    Keywords: Radiation ; composting ; disinfection ; electron beam ; environment ; exhaust gases ; gamma rays ; nitrogen oxides ; pathogens ; sewage sludge ; sulfur dioxied ; viruses ; waste water
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/0146-5724(83)90196-6
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    The value of private safety versus the value of public safety (1996)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 13 (1996), S. 263-275 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: safety ; willingness to pay ; altruism ; environment ; traffic ; D61 ; D91 ; H51 ; I10 ; I12
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract In this study, one group of respondents is offered to purchase a safety device to be installed in their cars, while another group is offered a public safety program (improved road quality) which results in the same size risk reduction. In terms of the value of a statistical life, our results are very reasonable. However, the WTP for the private safety device ishigher than the WTP for the public safety measure. Drawing on a model developed by Jones-Lee (1991), we show that some types of altruists may, but need not, be willing to pay more for a private risk reduction than for a uniform risk reduction of the same magnitude. Still, our empirical results are surprising, and further empirical research seems warranted.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00056156
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    Valuation of Multiple Environmental Programs (2000)
    Springer
    Journal of risk and uncertainty 21 (2000), S. 95-115 
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    ISSN: 1573-0476
    Keywords: contingent valuation ; constructed preferences ; environment ; attitudes
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract We examined sequence effects on willingness-to-pay (WTP) when people evaluate a series of environmental goods. Each respondent evaluated five different environmental goods using WTP and four evaluative attitude ratings. There was a strong sequence effect: WTP was much larger for the first good than for goods evaluated afterward. Also, total WTP for the bundle of five goods depended on which good was evaluated first: the more highly valued the first good, the higher the total WTP for the bundle. The attitude ratings are shown to be more statistically efficient than WTP in measuring the relative importance of different environmental goods.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1026573527618
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    Overview of the SEAFP and SEAL Studies (1997)
    Springer
    Journal of fusion energy 16 (1997), S. 245-251 
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    ISSN: 1572-9591
    Keywords: Fusion ; safety ; environment ; accidents ; waste
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The SEAFP (Safety and Environmental Assessment of Fusion Power) and SEAL (Safety and Environmental Assessment of fusion power, Long-term) programs form part of the ongoing effort in the European Fusion Programme to consider the safety and environmental aspects of fusion power. SEAFP was undertaken in the period 1992–1994. The assessment started with the development of two conceptual power plant designs, each of 3000 MW of fusion power, termed Model 1 and Model 2. Model 1 used vanadium alloy, helium cooling, and lithium oxide for tritium generation. Model 2 used a reduced-activation martensitic steel, water cooling, and a lithium–lead alloy for tritium generation. Both Models were designed for passive safety. The SEAFP analyses included detailed consideration of effluents, occupational doses, accidents (concentrating on the worst possible accidents), and waste management. The key results are summarized in this paper. SEAL was launched in 1995, with the aims of broadening the scope of SEAFP, and of elaborating selected aspects of SEAFP in more detail. The SEAL analyses include studies which extend the results of SEAFP to a wider class of blanket designs and material choices, improved assessments of the quantities of activated materials which may be exempted from regulatory control or recycled, improved modeling of occupational doses, and work in many areas to improve relevant data, modeling and analyses, or consider design improvements. Much of this work is ongoing, but key results from completed work are summarized in this paper.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1021851522269
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    Tritium environmental transport studies at TFTR (1993)
    Springer
    Journal of fusion energy 12 (1993), S. 145-148 
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    ISSN: 1572-9591
    Keywords: tritium ; transport ; monitoring ; environment ; model ; validation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Environmental tritium concentrations will be measured near the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) to help validate dynamic models of tritium transport in the environment. For model validation the database must contain sequential measurements of tritium concentrations in key environmental compartments. Since complete containment of tritium is an operational goal, the supplementary monitoring program should be able to glean useful data from an unscheduled acute release. Portable air samplers will be used to take samples automatically every 4 hours for a week after an acute release, thus obtaining the time resolution needed for code validation. Samples of soil, vegetation, and foodstuffs will be gathered daily at the same locations as the active air monitors. The database may help validate the plant/soil/air part of tritium transport models and enhance environmental tritium transport understanding for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER).
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01059370
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    Doses from accidental releases of tritium and activation products into the atmosphere (1993)
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    Journal of fusion energy 12 (1993), S. 149-156 
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    ISSN: 1572-9591
    Keywords: environment ; tritium ; activation products ; dose calculations ; NET, ITER
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In view of public acceptance and the licensing procedure of projected fusion reactors, the release of tritium and activation products during normal operation as well as after accidents is a significant safety aspect. Calculations have been performed under accidental conditions for unit releases of corrosion products from water coolant loops, of first wall erosion products including different coating materials, and of tritium in its chemical form of tritiated water (HTO). Dose assessments during normal operation have been performed for corrosion products from first wall primary coolant loop and for tritium in both chemical forms (HT/HTO). The two accident consequence assessment (ACA) codes UFOTRI and COSYMA have been applied for the deterministic dose calculations with nearly the same input variables and for several radiological source terms. Furthermore, COSYMA and NORMTRI have been applied for routine release scenarios. The paper analyzes the radioation doses to individuals and the population resulting from the different materials assumed to be released in the environment.
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    Effects of forest fire and drought on acidity of a base-poor boreal forest stream: similarities between climatic warming and acidic precipitation (1992)
    Springer
    Biodegradation 17 (1992), S. 191-204 
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    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Keywords: fire ; climate change ; boreal forest ; stream ; sulfate ; acidity ; watershed
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract In a boreal forest catchment in the Experimental Lakes Area in northwestern Ontario, wildfire caused an increase in the concentrations of strong acid anions and base cations of the stream. In the naturally base-poor Northwest (NW) Subbasin, a 1980 wildfire caused exports of strong acid anions to increase more than export of base cations, causing a 2.5 fold increase in the acidity of the stream. Mean annual stream pH declined from 5.15 prior to fire to 4.76 two years after fire. Acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC), calculated as the difference between total base cations and strong acid anions, decreased to 20% of pre-fire values. Sulfate and chloride were the strong acid anions responsible for the decline in ANC, increasing four-fold. While nitrate increased eleven-fold, concentrations were too low to significantly affect ANC. There was a significant correlation between weekly sulfate concentration and base cation concentration (r 2 = 0.83) in the two years after fire. Recovery of ANC was caused by the more rapid decline in concentration of sulfate than by changes in base cations. Drought produced a similar but weaker response than fire, with increased sulfate concentrations and decreased stream pH. Climatic warming that increases drought and fire frequency would have effects that mimic the impacts of acidic precipitation (i.e. higher sulfate concentrations and acidic stream waters). Areas which have higher concentrations of stored S from past acid precipitation or have large areas of peatlands in the watershed may have aggravated losses of S and H+ after drought and fire.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00004041
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    On the detection of environmental effects on complex matrices combining off-line liquid chromatography and 1H-NMR (1998)
    Springer
    Biodegradation 9 (1998), S. 513-525 
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    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Keywords: automation ; environment ; fingerprinting ; GLP ; LC ; NMR ; statistics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract An off-line combination of 400 MHz proton (1H)-NMR spectroscopy and liquid chromatography (LC) has been used for the multi-component comparison of low-molecular weight compounds (i.e., chemical fingerprinting) in model fluid broths and (processed) tomato. The focus of the research described is on (i) devising GLP-like methods for sample handling and NMR measurements that will ensure reproducibility, (ii) an automated handling of data, (iii) validity of the designed methodology and (iv) the interpretation of large amounts of data.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1008398321079
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    Soil chemistry change in a lowland english deciduous Woodland 1974–1991 (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 677-682 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: soils ; acidification ; ancient woodland ; nitrogen ; environmental change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This study outlines the results of analysis of soil samples collected from fixed quadrats located in a regular pattern across Wytham Wood. Oxfordshire, England. The site contains plots of mixed deciduous ancient woodland and more recent plantations. A previous soil study was undertaken in 1974 and samples archived. Soils were resampled in 1991 and some re-analysis of the 1974 samples was undertaken. Soils were of a wide range in types from sands to gravels with a pH range of 3.0–7.0. Results showed some decline in pH in lower horizons, but most striking was a large increase in soil nitrogen for all horizons and soil types.
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    Pathways of chemical recovery in acidified, metal-contaminated lakes near Sudbury, Ontario, Canada (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 797-803 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; recovery ; copper ; nickel ; lake ; rate ; alkalinity
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes the recovery pathways of two lakes situated near the Coniston nickel-copper smelter. These lakes were exposed to very intense airborne pollution, including SO2, H2SO4, Ni and Cu, during the 60 year operation of the smelter. After the closure of the Coniston smelter in 1972 and the subsequent improvement in air quality, the water quality in both lakes began to improve. Despite their proximity and exposure to similar inputs, the lakes differed both in the rate and magnitude of recovery. This study demonstrates the capacity of lakes to recover from chemical stresses over a very short period. Changes in Cu and Ni concentration could be predicted, while changes in pH, measured as H+, could not. The reasons for this discrepancy as well as the processes and lake parameters that control chemical recovery are discussed.
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    Lake and watershed neutralization strategies (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 889-894 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; acid neutralizing capacity ; calcite ; fish ; liming ; mitigation ; ecosystems
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The Experimental Watershed Liming Study (EWLS) evaluated the application of CaCO3, to a forested watershed to mitigate the acidification of surface water. During October 1989, 6.9 Mg CaCC3/ha was applied by helicopter to two subcatchments of about 50% (102.5 ha) of the Woods Lake watershed area. The EWLS team investigated the response to treatment of soils (chemistry and microbial processes), vegetation, wetland, stream and lake waters, and phytoplankton and fish, and applied the Integrated Lake Watershed Acidification (ILWAS) model in predicting a watershed treatment duration of up to 50 years. Observations showed a gradual change in pH, acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) and Ca2+ in the water column; direct lake additions of CaCO3 (three different times) were characterized by abrupt changes following base addition and subsequent rapid reacidification. Moreover, the watershed treatment eliminated the snowmelt acidification of the near-shore region of the lake observed during direct lake treatments. Positive ANC water in the tributary and near-shore area improved conditions for fish reproduction and for a viable fish population. Budgets for 12-month periods before and after the watershed treatment showed that the lake shifted from a source of ANC to a sink due to retention of elevated inputs of Ca2+ from the watershed CaCO3 application.
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    An integrated analysis of sulfur emissions, acid deposition and climate change (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1539-1550 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; air pollution impacts ; climate change ; global change ; integrated modeling ; sulfur deposition
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents one of the first integrated analyses of acidification and climate change on a geographically-detailed basis, and the first linkage of integrated models for acid deposition (RAINS) and for climate change (IMAGE 2). Emphasis in this paper is on Europe. Trends in driving forces of emissions are used to compute anthropogenic SO2 emissions in 13 world regions. These emissions are translated into regional patterns of sulfur deposition in Europe and global patterns of sulfate aerosols using source-receptor matrices. Changes in climate are then computed based on changes in sulfate and greenhouse gases. Finally, we compute ecosystem areas affected by acid deposition and climate change based on exceedances of critical loads and changes in potential vegetation. Using this framework, information from global and regional integrated models can be used to link sulfur emissions with both their global and regional consequences. Preliminary calculations indicate that the size of European area affected by climate change in 2100 (58%) will be about the same as that affected by acid deposition in 1990. By the mid 21st century, about 14% of Europe's area may be affected by both acid deposition and climate change. Also, reducing sulfur emissions in Europe will have both the desirable impact of reducing the area affected by acid deposition, and the undesirable impact of enhancing climate warming in Europe and thus increasing the area affected by climate change. However, for the scenarios in this paper, the desirable impact of reducing sulfur emissions greatly outweighs its undesirable impact.
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    Research Trends and Opportunities in Environmental and Natural Resource Economics (1998)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 11 (1998), S. 383-397 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: economics ; environment ; natural resources ; research
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The research questions and topics most likely to emerge in the near term future are assessed. A common theme is that policy issues will be an important driving force, as has generally been true in the past. More specifically, future theoretical advances are expected to occur in the treatment of uncertainty, the incorporation of stock service flows into natural resource analysis, and the incorporation of institutional considerations into models of resource exploitation. Research on valuation is expected to remain vigorous, primarily in the testing of basic assumptions and reconciliation of existing inconsistencies. Opportunities in renewable resource economics center on the incorporation of richer behavioral and technological detail in the general frameworks that already exist. A better understanding of what drives technology, and how environmental agreements can be negotiated and enforced among sovereign nations, are two topics likely to shape future research on global externalities. Finally, questions related to spatial aspects of natural resource use, and matters of land use more generally, seem likely to emerge as important topics on the profession's future research agenda.
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    Road Transport Externalities (1998)
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    Environmental and resource economics 11 (1998), S. 335-348 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: environment ; external costs ; policy, transport
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract During the last decade much progress has been made in defining & measuring the external costs of transport. As the cost of tolling equipment falls, the set of realistic policy options to internalise these externalities will continue to grow. This will determine the research and policy agenda. We make three points. Firstly, empirical work is still necessary to better identify marginal external costs, including congestion, accident and environmental costs. Secondly, any assessment of policy options should treat externalities simultaneously. The use of pricing instruments and emissions standards are discussed within this framework. Thirdly, we emphasise the role of government. Designing the optimal road-pricing institutions requires consideration of horizontal and vertical tax competition, while double-dividend arguments are central to the question of securing public support.
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    Assessing Effects of Mitigation Strategies for Global Climate Change with an Intertemporal Model of the U.S. Forest and Agriculture Sectors (1997)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 9 (1997), S. 259-274 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: afforestation ; climate change ; intersectoral ; land-use change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a" least social cost" fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.
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    Assessing effects of mitigation strategies for global climate change with an intertemporal model of the U.S. forest and agriculture sectors (1997)
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 9 (1997), S. 259-274 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: afforestation ; climate change ; intersectoral ; land-use change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract A model of product and land markets in U.S. forest and agricultural sectors is used to examine the private forest management, land use, and market implications of carbon sequestration policies implemented in a “least social cost” fashion. Results suggest: policy-induced land use changes may generate compensating land use shifts through markets; land use shifts to meet policy targets need not be permanent; implementation of land use and management changes in a smooth or regular fashion over time may not be optimal; and primary forms of adjustment to meet carbon policy targets involve shifting of land from agriculture to forest and more intensive forest management in combinations varying with the policy target.
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    Global climate change and regional sustainable development: the case of Mackenzie Basin in Canada (2000)
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 21-36 
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    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: integrated assessment ; climate change ; regional sustainability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Cohen et al. [16] suggest that in order to explore ways to bring climate change (CC) and sustainable development (SD) research together, it is necessary to develop more heuristic tools that can involve resource users and other stakeholders. In this respect, this paper focuses on methodological development in research to study climate change impacts and regional sustainable development (RSD). It starts with an introduction of an integrated land assessment framework (ILAF) which is part of the integrated phase of the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) in Canada. The paper then provides some articulation on how the integrated approach was applied in the Mackenzie Basin to show implications of climate change for RSD.
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    Optimal greenhouse gas emissions under various assessments of climate change ambiguity (1996)
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    Environmental and resource economics 8 (1996), S. 129-140 
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    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; ambiguity ; optimal control
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The probabilities associated with global warming damage are likely to be continuously revised in the light of new information. Such revisions of probability are the defining characteristic of ambiguity, as opposed to risk. This paper examines how climate change ambiguity may affect optimal greenhouse gas emission strategies, via the decision maker's attitude towards anticipated changes of damage probabilities. Two conceptualizations of ambiguity are distinguished, according to the emphasis placed on the ambiguity of priors or on the ambiguity of news, respectively. It is shown that the way in which ambiguity is viewed and the attitude taken towards it have a substantial influence on the optimal emission trajectory.
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    Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options (2000)
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 267-280 
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    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: participatory integrated assessment ; climate change ; low energy society
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments.
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    Natural climate variability and climate change in the North-Atlantic European region; chance for surprise? (2000)
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 301-306 
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    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: CLEAR ; natural climate variability ; climate change ; atmosphere ; ocean
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Long-term variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic thermohaline ocean circulation (THC) are both shaping the European climate on time scales of decades and longer. Possible linear and non-linear changes in the characteristics of these natural climate modes due to global warming are an important source of uncertainty in long-term regional projections of future climate changes.
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    Assessing alpine plant vulnerability to climate change: a modeling perspective (2000)
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 307-320 
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    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: climate change ; ecological impact assessment ; alpine and subalpine belts ; plant distribution ; statistical modeling ; local scale ; GIS ; GLM ; Swiss Alps
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1018912114948
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    Factor biases and promoting sustainable development: Adaptation to drought in the Senegal River Basin (1996)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 139-165 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: Adaptation ; agriculture ; agroforestry ; climate change ; drought ; ecological degradation ; factor bias ; Senegal ; sustainability ; social relations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and ecological relationships that define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment. These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production, or the factor bias in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated plantations to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period. A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests that this policy's food production system is not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions, this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty. A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized management and a reduction of external inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués”, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry projects to redress the primary effects of desertification. The water requirements of both the rice import substitution program and the natural resource management program are calculated. A water resources simulation model/optimization analysis using dynamic programming is used to compare these two alternatives to the rice import substitution programs. Results indicate that the natural resource management policy could potentially bring a large area into production while using far less water than the rice import substitution program. The natural resource management policy, in particular the second alternative with its emphasis on individual ownership and ecological rehabiliation, defines a different set of social and ecological relationships that appear to enhance the sustainability of food production under a long-term drought.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00455057
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    Adapting to Climate Change in Africa (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 19-44 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; Africa ; agriculture ; climate change ; vulnerability ; water
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000004663.31074.64
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    Adapting to climate change in Africa (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 19-44 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: adaptation ; Africa ; agriculture ; climate change ; vulnerability ; water
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF02437055
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    An Integrated Assessment of Climate Change and the Accelerated Introduction of Advanced Energy Technologies - An Application of MiniCAM 1.0 (1997)
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 311-339 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; CO2 ; carbondioxide ; integrated assessment ; MiniCAM ; LEESS ; top down ; bottom up ; sulfor ; energy ; emissions mitigation ; energy technology ; advanced energy technologies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract We report results from the application of an integrated assessment model, MiniCAM 1.0. The model is employed to explore the full range of climate change implications of the successful development of cost effective, advanced, energy technologies. These technologies are shown to have a profound effect on the future magnitude and rate of anthropogenic climate change. We find that the introduction of assumptions developed by a group of ‘bottom-up’ modelers for the LEESS scenarios into a ‘top-down’ model, the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns Model, leads to ‘top down’ emissions trajectories similar to those of the LEESS. The cumulative effect of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv. While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology is particularly important. The consideration of all greenhouse related anthropogenic emissions, and in particular sulfur dioxide, is found to be important. We find that the consideration of sulfur dioxide emissions coupled to rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions leads to higher global mean temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This result is due to the short-term cooling impact of sulfate aerosols, which dominates the long-term warming impact of CO2 and CH4 in the years prior to 2050. We also show that damage calculations which use only mean global temperature and income may be underestimating damages by up to a factor of five. Disaggregating income reduces this to a factor of two, still a major error. Finally, the role of the discount rate is shown to be extraordinarily important to technology preference.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/B:MITI.0000027386.34214.60
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    Simulating the carbon flux between the terrestrial environment and the atmosphere (1994)
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    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 199-230 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; biogeophysical feedbacks ; geographically explicit global C cycle model ; CO2 fertilization ; soil respiration ; land cover change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A Terrestrial C Cycle model that is incorporated in the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE 2.0) is described. The model is a geographically explicit implementation of a model that simulates the major C fluxes in different compartments of the terrestrial biosphere and between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Climatic parameters, land cover and atmospheric C concentrations determine the result of the dynamic C simulations. The impact of changing land cover patterns, caused by anthropogenic activities (shifting agriculture, de- and afforestation) and climatic change are modeled implicitly. Feedback processes such as CO2 fertilization and temperature effects on photosynthesis, respiration and decomposition are modeled explicitly. The major innovation of this approach is that the consequences of climate change are taken into account instantly and that their results can be quantified on a global medium-resolution grid. The objectives of this paper are to describe the C cycle model in detail, present the linkages with other parts of the IMAGE 2.0 framework, and give an array of different simulations to validate and test the robustness of this modeling approach. The computed global net primary production (NPP) for the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 was 60.6 Gt C a−1, with a global net ecosystem production (NEP) of 2.4 Gt C a−1. The simulated C flux as result from land cover changes was 1.1 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 acted as a C sink of 1.3 Gt C a−1. Global phytomass amounted 567.5 Gt C and the dead biomass pool was 1517.7 Gt C. IMAGE 2.0 simulated for the period 1970–2050 a global average temperature increase of 1.6 °C and a global average precipitation increase of 0.1 mm/day. The CO2 concentration in 2050 was 522.2 ppm. The computed NPP for the year 2050 is 82.5 Gt C a−1, with a NEP of 8.1 Gt C a−1. Projected land cover changes result in a C flux of 0.9 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere will be a strong sink of 7.2 Gt C a−1. The amount of phytomass hardly changed (600.7 Gt C) but the distribution over the different regions had. Dead biomass increased significantly to 1667.2 Gt C.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00478340
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    Acidification in Norway — Status and trends (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 629-634 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; monitoring ; calibrated catchments ; lakes ; rivers ; ground water
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Surface and ground water monitoring in Norway is designed to give a regional coverage with most of the stations in areas with acidification and some stations in unpolluted areas that give background values. Surface water (weekly sampling) and precipitation (daily measurement) are monitored at 6 calibrated catchments, 5 located in southern Norway and 1 in northernmost Norway close to the Russian border. Ground water (weekly sampling) is monitored in 4 reservoirs in Southern Norway. 73 lakes located all over Norway are surveyed each fall. Nineteen rivers in western and southern Norway are monitored by monthly sampling. All sites are considered sensitive to acidification and are chosen to minimise the effects of anthropogenic catchment based impacts. Results from the monitoring over the period 1980–1994 show that there is a reduction of sulphate of about 25–35% in surface waters which is related to a 30–45% reduction in sulphate concentration in precipitation. An improvement in water quality as measured as increase in ANC has only been apparent since 1990. Due to heavy seasalt episodes in the most coastal catchments like Birkenes and the rivers in western Norway, there has been no improvement of ANC since 1980. Deposition of nitrogen has not changed over the last 10 years, and there is no change in the levels of nitrate in the monitored surface waters.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00476899
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    Responses of phyto- and zooplankton to liming in a small acidified humic lake (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 943-948 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; liming ; phytoplankton ; zooplankton ; humic lake
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Liming resulted in an immediate and transitory decrease of plankton biomass and phytoplankton primary production in the limed part of an acidified humic lake. In the longer term liming has changed species composition and dominance of phyto- and zooplankton. Due to increased transparency and improved oxygen conditions plankton biomass peaked deeper in the water column after liming. During the three years post-liming period phyto- and zooplankton communities have changed less than reported in several other studies. This is largely because liming was carried out well before the collapse of perch population, which has controlled zooplankton both in the pre- and post-treatment period.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00476951
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    The “shenandoah national park: Fish in sensitive habitats” (SNP: FISH) project. An integrated assessment of fish community responses to stream acidification (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 309-314 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; Virginia ; fish response
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The “Shenandoah National Park: Fish in Sensitive Habitats” (SNP:FISH) project is a response to declining pH and acid neutralizing capacity in Shenandoah National Park (SNP) streams. SNP receives more atmospheric sulfate than any other USA national park, and pH had decreased to the point where early negative effects on fish were expected. SNP provides the opportunity to study the early stages of acidification effects on fish. Three different classes of geological formations yield streams with low-ANC (0 μEq/L), intermediate-ANC (60–100 μEq/L) or high-ANC (150–200 μEq/L) waters in SNP. This allows a comparison of responses across a water quality gradient in a small geographic area receiving similar deposition. Both chronic and episodic acidification occur in SNP streams. Biological effects are apparent in fish species richness, population density, condition factor, age, size, and bioassay survival. A primary project objective was to provide the necessary data for development and testing models for forecasting changes in fish communities resulting from changes in stream chemistry. Monitored variables include several which are predictive of acidification effects on SNP fish communities.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00476847
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    The role of nitrogen in acidification of Tatra Mountains lakes (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 481-486 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: critical loads ; nitrogen deposition ; sulphur deposition ; acidification ; mountain lakes ; Tatra National Park
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract An overall level as well as seasonal changes of acidification of Tatra Mountains surface waters have been studied. Measurements carried out in the Tatra Mountains National Park were concentrated on two lakes: Dlugi Staw and Zielony Staw, situated in the crystalline, granitic part of the mountains. These lakes differ from each other in altitude (1784 m and 1632 m a.s.l. respectively) as well as in quantity and variety of flora and fauna living in and around them. The wet deposition of acidifying compounds of sulphur and nitrogen, and their seasonal variability in the area of the lakes were measured and compared with the critical loads of sulphur and nitrogen for these lakes and their catchments. Results showed that the critical loads of both sulphur and nitrogen in Dlugi Staw were exceeded all over the year and in Zielony Staw the acid deposition was roughly equal to critical load. A surprisingly high concentration of nitrogen compounds in acid deposition, well above the absorption ability of both the lakes and their catchments were ascertained. Nitrogen retention coefficients calculated for the lakes were as follows: Dlugi Staw — approximately 10%, Zielony Staw — approximately 50%. Seasonal variability in nitrate ions concentration in the lakes' waters reflected their prominent acidification caused by nitrogen compounds corresponding to stages 2 and 3 in the scale proposed recently by Stoddard (Stoddard, 1994).
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00476875
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    Al:Pe projects: Water chemistry and critical loads (1995)
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 493-498 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: remote lakes ; water chemistry ; critical load ; acidification
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Water chemistry data on which all the investigations in the AL:PE 1 (Acidification of Mountain Lakes: Palaeolimnology and Ecology) and AL:PE 2 (Remote Mountain Lakes as Indicators of Air Pollution and Climate Change) projects are based, are available for 28 lakes in U.K. (Scotland), Italy, Norway and France (AL:PE 1) and in Svalbard (Norway), Ireland, Austria, Spain, Portugal, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Russia (AL:PE 2). The results show high sulphate concentrations in some mountain lakes in all the countries. Nitrate and sulphate concentrations have different distribution patterns among the sites. A gradient in acidification from north (Norway) to central Europe (via U.K. to Italy) is identified for the AL:PE lakes by means of multivariate data analysis. Critical loads and their exceedance are calculated, where sufficient information is available, both according to the leaching of S, and of S plus N from the catchment. The pattern of critical load exceedance demonstrates an increasing importance of nitrate from Norway via U.K. to Italy. Leaching of N was of considerable importance to the acidification of lakes in the Italian Alps. The projects receive financial support from the European Union.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00476877
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    Losses and recoveries of fish populations in acidified lakes of southern Finland in the last decade (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 315-320 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Fish populations ; perch ; roach ; growth ; reproduction ; water chemistry ; acidification ; recover
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Acid-induced fish damage in small lakes in southern Finland was studied in a fish status survey of eighty lakes from 1985–1987. Later, twenty of these lakes were selected for further monitoring. A sampling of these lakes from 1988–1989 showed that the decrease in some perch (Perca fluviatilis L.) and roach (Rutilus rutilus L.) populations still continued. The results from the same lakes in 1992 showed that successful reproduction had taken place with many of the perch populations that had been close to extinction in 1985. In contrast, no signs of recovery in the roach populations were detected. The explanation for the appearance of new cohorts of perch could have been the decrease in acid deposition but the exceptional hydrological conditions of winters in the early 1990s may also have affected them. The different responses of the perch and roach populations were interpreted as a consequence of the different sensitivity of these two species to acidification. Even a slight improvement in the water quality has resulted in the appearance of strong new year-classes of perch, but not of roach. Therefore, more improvement in water quality is needed until a sensitive species like roach can reproduce again.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00476848
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    A field study on the influence of soil ph on trace element levels in spring wheat (Triticum aestivum), potatoes (Solanum tuberosum) and carrots (Daucus carota) (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 835-840 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; arable soils ; trace elements (Cd, Ni, Zn, Cu, Mn, Cr, Al, Se) ; plant uptake ; field study
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Soil pH is one of the main factors influencing the solubility and availability of trace elements in arable soils. Thus pH can affect the trace element contents of agricultural crops and thereby indirectly influence human health. The aim of this study was to determine Cd, Ni, Zn, Cu, Mn, Cr, Al and Se contents in spring wheat, potatoes and carrots (Cd, Ni and Zn) and estimate their correlations with certain soil factors (surface and subsurface soil pH and organic matter content) governing the plant availability of these elements. Commercial fields were sampled in Sweden in order to cover a wide range of soil types with respect to pH, soil texture and organic matter content. Concentrations of Zn, Mn, Ni (grain) and Cd (straw) in spring wheat (n=43); Cd, Ni, Zn, Mn, Cu and Al in potatoes (n=69); and Cd, Ni and Zn in carrots (n=36) showed significant negative correlations with surface soil pH (0–25 cm). The Se content of potatoes and Cr content of spring wheat straw were positively correlated with soil pH. Stepwise multiple regressions including a combination of soil pHs (0–25 and 25–50 cm) and organic matter contents (0–25 cm) showed that the organic matter content as well as the surface and subsurface soil pH significantly influenced concentrations of several trace elements in one or more of the studied crops. It was concluded that, if acid deposition together with other acidifying processes (fertilisation, harvest of biomass, etc.) are not balanced by a sufficient amount of liming there might be a decrease in the pH of arable soils, which, in turn will lead to decreased levels of Se in edible crops but an overall increase concentrations of other trace elements.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00476933
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    Assessment of the use of principal components analysis to relate air and precipitation chemistry to climate (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1569-1574 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: synoptic circulation ; principal components analysis ; air pollution ; climate change ; classification
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A classification of atmospheric circulation was derived using principal components analysis (PCA) of daily sea level pressure over a 10 year period. Correlation coefficients of up to 0.65 were obtained between the individual principal component loadings and monthly means of gas and precipitation ion concentrations for a Scottish and a Norwegian station from the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) network. The mean synoptic patterns of months predicted to have high or low gas and ion concentrations from their component loadings agreed well with previous work. High concentrations occur frequently with southerly flow or anticyclonic conditions, and low concentrations with westerly and northwesterly flow. We conclude that the PCA classification is a sensible method to use to derive circulation pattern-pollutant relationships, and is an encouraging first step to use the general circulation model (GCM) projections of future climate to assess possible future air/precipitation composition patterns
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00477204
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    Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system: Part 1: Model description and testing (1994)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 1-35 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: integrated modeling ; integrated assessment ; greenhouse gas emissions ; global change ; climate change ; land cover change ; C cycle
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes the IMAGE 2.0 model, a multi-disciplinary, integrated model designed to simulate the dynamics of the global society-biosphere-climate system. The objectives of the model are to investigate linkages and feedbacks in the system, and to evaluate consequences of climate policies. Dynamic calculations are performed to year 2100, with a spatial scale ranging from grid (0.5°×0.5° latitudelongitude) to world regional level, depending on the sub-model. The model consists of three fully linked sub-systems: Energy-Industry, Terrestrial Environment, and Atmosphere-Ocean. The Energy-Industry models compute the emissions of greenhouse gases in 13 world regions as a function of energy consumption and industrial production. End use energy consumption is computed from various economic/demographic driving forces. The Terrestrial Environment models simulate the changes in global land cover on a gridscale based on climatic and economic factors, and the flux of CO2 and other greenhouse gases from the biosphere to the atmosphere. The Atmosphere-Ocean models compute the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and the resulting zonal-average temperature and precipitation patterns. The fully linked model has been tested against data from 1970 to 1990, and after calibration can reproduce the following observed trends: regional energy consumption and energy-related emissions, terrestrial flux of CO2 and emissions of greenhouse gases, concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and transformation of land cover. The model can also simulate long term zonal average surface and vertical temperatures.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00478335
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    Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system: Part 2: Computed scenarios (1994)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 37-78 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; global change ; integrated assessment ; integrated models ; scenario analysis ; carbon cycle ; biofuels
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric concentrations of gases, temperature, precipitation, land cover and other indicators. Included are a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario, and three variations of this scenario: (i) the Conventional Wisdom scenario is a reference case which is partly based on the input assumptions of the IPCC's IS92a scenario; (ii) the “Biofuel Crops” scenario assumes that most biofuels will be derived from new cropland; (iii) the “No Biofuels” scenario examines the sensitivity of the system to the use of biofuels; and (iv) the “Ocean Realignment” scenario investigates the effect of a large-scale change in ocean circulation on the biosphere and climate. Results of the biofuel scenarios illustrate the importance of examining the impact of biofuels on the full range of greenhouse gases, rather than only CO2. These scenarios also indicate possible side effects of the land requirements for energy crops. The Ocean Realignment scenario shows that an unexpected, low probability event can both enhance the build-up of greenhouse gases, and at the same time cause a temporary cooling of surface air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. However, warming of the atmosphere is only delayed, not avoided.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00478336
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    Model for calculating regional energy use, industrial production and greenhouse gas emissions for evaluating global climate scenarios (1994)
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    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 79-131 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: energy modeling ; greenhouse gas emissions ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In the integrated IMAGE 2.0 model the “Energy-Industry System” is implemented as a set of models to develop global scenarios for energy use and industrial processes and for the related emissions of greenhouse gases on a region specific basis. The Energy-Economy model computes total energy use, with a focus on final energy consumption in end-use sectors, based on economic activity levels and the energy conservation potential (“end-use approach”). The Industrial Production and Consumption model computes the future levels of activities other than energy use, which lead to greenhouse gas emissions, based on relations with activities defined in the Energy-Economy model. These two models are complemented by two emissions models, to compute the associated emissions by using emission factors per compound and per activity defined. For investigating energy conservation and emissions control strategy scenarios various techno-economic coefficients in the model can be modified. In this paper the methodology and implementation of the “Energy-Industry System” models is described as well as results from their testing against data for the period 1970–1990. In addition, the application of the models is presented for a specific scenario calculation. Future extensions of the models are in preparation.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00478337
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    Simulating changes in global land cover as affected by economic and climatic factors (1994)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 163-198 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: land cover ; land use ; agricultural demand ; climate change ; global change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes two global models: (1) an Agricultural Demand Model which is used to compute the consumption and demand for commodities that define land use in 13 world regions; and, (2) a Land Cover Model, which simulates changes in land cover on a global terrestrial grid (0.5° latitude by 0.5° longitude) resulting from economic and climatic factors. Both are part of the IMAGE 2.0 model of global climate change. The models have been calibrated and tested with regional data from 1970–1990. The Agricultural Demand Model can approximate the observed trend in commodity consumption and the Land Cover Model simulates the total amount of land converted within 13 world regions during this period. Some degree of the spatial variability of deforestation has also been captured by the simulation. Applying the model to a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario showed that future trends of land conversions could be strikingly different on different continents even though a consistent scenario (IS92a from the IPCC) was used for assumptions about economic growth and population. Sensitivity analysis indicated that future land cover patterns are especially sensitive to assumed technological improvements in crop yield and computed changes in agricultural demand.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00478339
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  • 90
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    Influence of humic substances on photolysis of divalent mercury in aqueous solution (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 80 (1995), S. 789-798 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Mercury ; photochemistry ; reduction ; humic substances ; environment ; natural water ; kinetic
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Mercury (II) solutions were irradiated by a simulated sunlight in the presence of humic acid (HA) or fulvic acid (FA). Results show that, under the experimental conditions and the FA and HA chosen, less than 20% of the Hg in solution was photolysed with a rate of (1.63±0.29)×10−2 s−1 (n=23) and the rest of (2.38±0.40)×10−4 s−1 (n=23) depending on the substitutes of humic substances to which Hg were bond. The sunlight photolysis lifetimes were estimated to be 4 and 250 sunlight hours respectively under summer conditions at Stockholm latitude.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01189730
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  • 91
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    Direct and indirect air pollution effects on materials including cultural monuments (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 153-165 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: air pollutants ; effect on materials ; acidification ; cultural monuments ; sulphur dioxide ; nitrogen oxides ; ozone ; economic calculations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Damage caused to materials exposed in the atmosphere constitutes one of the most important direct effects of acidifying air pollutants. Systematic field and laboratory investigations performed in the recent decade in many countries have contributed to a considerable increase in the knowledge on the mechanisms of the effects of pollutants, on the quantification of damage and on the assessment of the cost of damage. Beside the very important role of SO2 for several materials also studies of the direct or synergistic effect of NOx and O3 have contributed to the understanding of the complex pollution effects. Even if there are still considerable gaps of knowledge it seems that NOx and O3 may contribute in an important way to the deterioration of several materials also in indoor environments which are important for i.a. electronic equipment, storage conditions and museums. Important knowledge has been gained from the International Cooperation Project within UK ECE which is an extensive field exposure on 39 test sites. Dose-response relations have been obtained after 4-year exposure showing the effect of dry and wet deposition on corrosion of several material groups. Also the effect of micro- and mesoclimate on corrosion of building materials like plaster and bricks in different positions on buildings and locations within an urban area has been subject to systematic studies. Results from the studies are used i.a. for assessment of so called acceptable corrosion levels and for mapping areas where the levels are exceeded at different pollution scenarios, as well as for calculation of economic damage. Based on model studies for some city areas tentative calculations of damage cost have been performed for the European region. The indirect effects consist of increased corrosion due to water and soil acidification which are of importance in geologically sensitive areas. Structures which are in contact with soil and water represent a very great capital investment and are of vital importance to the community.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00483697
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  • 92
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    Condition factor and whole-body sodium concentrations in a freshwater fish: Evidence for acidification stress and possible ionoregulatory over-compensation (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 377-382 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Rhinichthys atratulus ; condition factor ; whole-body sodium ; Shenandoah National Park ; acidification
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Condition factor, “K”, was measured for 1202 blacknose dace (Rhinichthys atratulus) from three streams in Shenandoah National Park (USA) of different acid neutralizing capacities (ANCs). “K” is a ratio of weight standardized to length; it is an indication of the health of the individuals in a population. R. atratulus condition factor in the low-ANC stream was found to be significantly lower (11%) than that of dace measured for fish from the intermediate- and high-ANC streams. This difference, according to the results of related investigations, is likely to be biologically significant. Whole-body sodium concentrations were measured as an additional test of sublethal stress in these streams. During summer base flow conditions, mean whole-body sodium concentrations of adult R. atratulus maintained in cages were found to be highest in the low-ANC stream and lowest in the high-ANC stream. The lower condition factor of dace in the low-ANC stream may be related to whole-body sodium concentration and ion regulation. Ion regulation in the low-ANC stream may be more metabolically costly because of chronic sublethal pH stress. R. atratulus may maintain high body Na+ concentrations in low ANC- and ionic strength waters in order to provide a buffer against large episodic pH depressions. The metabolic cost of this ionoregulatory over-compensation may necessitate the diversion of energy from somatic growth and explain the poorer condition of fish from such waters.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00476858
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  • 93
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    Acid stress and extinction of a spring-spawning fish population (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 383-388 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; fish population extinctions ; physiological stress
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Investigation of Heeney Lake, 21.7 ha, revealed a small population of white sucker, Catostomus commersoni. Only four age-classes were represented in this normally abundant and long-lived species. By 1984 only one new age-class had been recruited into the population. As these fish spawned in the outlet stream in early spring, the potential toxicity of these waters was assessed at two snow-melt events. Rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, of hatchery origin were held in the outlet stream as pH declined from 6.5 to 4.7 during a snow melt, late February. Trout showed a loss of 19% in plasma Na and 24% in Cl concurrent with gill Al concentration increasing from 10 to 250 μg'g−1 dry wt. At the mid-April snow melt, pH fell to 4.1, and rainbow trout held in the outlet showed a decline in plasma sodium of 42% and gill Al increased from 10 to 415 μg'g−1 dry wt. Control rainbow trout held in Harp L. at pH 6.3 showed no significant change in plasma and muscle ion concentrations, or in gill Al concentration. White sucker from nearby waters were held in Heeney Lake outlet, late April, and muscle Na and Cl declined significantly as gill Al concentration increased from 11 to 50 μg'g−1 dry wt during 48 hr exposure. White sucker hekl in Heeney L. outlet, mid-May, showed no significant change in plasma ions. No white sucker have been captured in Heeney L. since 1984 and the population is presumed to be extinct. Acid deposition has declined in recent years but lake and stream pH have not recovered and fish populations may still decline or disappear.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00476859
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    Gradual reduction and extinction of fish populations in acid lakes (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 389-394 
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: fish community ; colonization ; extinction ; acidification ; temporal patterns
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Fish communities in four lakes sampled over several years were compared against a reference data set of forty-nine lakes in south-central Ontario. Two of the temporal-comparison lakes (Crosson and Grindstone) exhibit significant changes in their fish communities relative to the reference set. This was due to the extirpation of various fish species (white sucker Catostomus commersoni, lake trout Salvelinus namaycush, and blacknose shiner Notropis heterolepis) during the intervening years. A control lake in the temporal comparison (Poorhouse) showed little change in species composition over time and no loss of species. The fourth temporal lake, Plastic Lake, also showed little change likely as a consequence of the previously documented extinctions in this lake. White suckers within Crosson Lake have demonstrated intermittent recruitment and a 89% reduction in population abundance due to acid-induced reproductive constraints in their spawning stream. Similar conditions contributed to the loss of sucker populations and additional species in Grindstone and Plastic Lakes also. Various species in many of the lakes represent metapopulations. Given the barriers imposed by outflow drainage conditions, these accelerated rates of local extinctions have not been balanced by colonizations from other lakes within the watershed. As a consequence the underlying fish communities have been changed and will remain so without active rehabilitation.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00476860
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    Do stream invertebrates accumulate aluminium at low pH conditions? (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 407-412 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Stream ; acidification ; aluminium ; invertebrates ; insects ; accumulation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Acidified surface waters often show elevated aluminium (Al) levels, detrimental to fish and some invertebrates. Whether Al can accumulate in benthic invertebrates, with time and/or along the food chain, is not clear. To test this, benthic invertebrates, representing different functional feeding groups, were collected in spring from streams, with different acidity and Al concentrations. Weight-specific Al content was determined with an AAS. At localities with pH ≈ 4, high Al contents (≈ 1 mg inorg-Al g−1 af dw) were found in shredders and/or deposit feeders (Asellus aquaticus, Nemoura sp., and limnephilids), while the predator Isoperla grammatica contained only ≈ 0.3 mg Al g−1, and the “filtering predator” Plectrocnemia conspersa almost no Al. Also at pH ≈ 6 Nemoura sp. and limnephilids showed significantly higher Al contents than did the predators Isoperla grammatica and Rhyacophila nubila, Al concentrations of the animals were often higher at pH 4 than at pH 6. Thus, no evidence of any food chain accumulation (or biomagnification) of Al could be validated. Accordingly, this study gives no support that the high concentrations of Al in fish and birds are due to their feeding on benthic invertebrates at low pH conditions. It was also found that animals that inhabit and/or consume benthic detritus as food contain highest Al levels.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00476863
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    The decline of fauna in small streams in the Swedish mountain range (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 419-424 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; acid episodes ; critical load ; mountain ; streams ; benthic fauna ; fish
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Investigations in the southern part of the Scandinavian mountain range have shown a direct correlation between snowpack pH and the lowest pH in small streams. In streams with catchments 〈100 km2 a snowpack pH below 4.8 resulted in a stream pH below 5.5. As the snowpack pH in the southern mountain range is 4.0–4.6, lower values to the south and at high altitudes, large areas are affected by acid deposition. The acidity of the snowpack is released almost directly into the streams during thaw, due to the large snowpack, rapid thaw, steep terrain and thin soils. The acidification of the snow has lead to an extensive fauna depletion, especially in smaller streams without upstream lakes. The abundance of benthos in acidified streams in the municipality of Härjedalen (11.000 km2) is today only one tenth of the abundance before acidification. Fish populations have declined to the same extent, and several acid-sensitive species have been lost. It is concluded that mountain streams and fauna are extremely sensitive to acidification, and that even large reductions of emissions will be insufficient.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00476865
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  • 97
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    Survival of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) embryos and fry in streams of different acid sensitivity in Shenandoah National Park, USA (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 445-450 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Brook trout ; acidification ; Virginia ; early life history
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Shenandoah National Park receives more atmospheric sulfate loading than any other USA national park. pH has been gradually declining in low-ANC streams for more than 10 years. We have completed four 1-to-3 month-long field bioassays in three streams differing in acid neutralizing capacity (ANC), using a total of 18,000 hatchery brook trout eyed-eggs through fry. In three of the four bioassays, embryos/fry showed poorer survivorship in the low-ANC stream, compared to the high-ANC stream. Substantial mortalities occurred under different hydrological conditions, including steady rain plus significant rain events (fall 1992), low rainfall followed by a significant rain event (spring 1993), and steady light rain and snowmelt with no large rain events (spring 1994). In a fourth bioassay (fall 1993), poor survivorship occurred in all three streams due to drought conditions. Trout placed in the intermediate-ANC stream showed variable survivorship, in two bioassays as high as in the high-ANC stream, and in one bioassay as poor as in the low-ANC stream. Baseflow ANC in the intermediate-ANC stream is 40–100 ueq/L, and pH never falls below 6.0. However, during episodes, pH in this stream sometimes fluctuates rapidly in the range of 6.0 to 7.0, and this fluctuation itself may be a source of physiological stress.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00476869
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  • 98
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    Soil solution chemistry and element budgets of three Scots pine ecosystems along a deposition gradient in north-eastern Germany (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1197-1202 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: Scots pine ; Pinus sylvestris ; deposition ; element budget ; soil solution ; soil chemistry ; alkaline dust ; pH ; acidification ; sulfur release
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Since 1993 we are studying three Scots pine ecosystems along a deposition gradient in north-eastern Germany (formerly GDR). Dramatic reductions of pollutant emissions are reported for the period since 1989/90. S-deposition is high at the sites Roesa and Taura (25 kg S ha−1yr−1) compared to Neuglobsow. Inputs of basic cations, especially Ca, by alkaline dust immissions decrease in the order Roesa 〉 Taura 〉 Neuglobsow. The soil solution data show high concentrations of Ca and SO4 at Roesa decreasing drastically along the deposition gradient. The elevated pH values reflect the impact of alkaline dust deposition particularly in the organic surface layer at Roesa. The site Taura received less base cation deposition and is marked by the lowest pH values throughout the soil profile combined with increased Al concentrations in the solution of the mineral soil. Thus, the composition of the soil solutions clearly reflects the different deposition regimes of the past. The element budgets show that large amounts of base cations, sulfur, and, at Taura, also aluminum are actually released from the soils that were previously stored.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00477144
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    Groundwater acidification at Birkenes, southern Norway: Comparing trends of chemical composition of precipitation, throughfall, soilwater and groundwater (1995)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1861-1866 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidification ; buffering ; groundwater ; monitoring ; precipitation ; seasalt ; soil ; soilwater ; throughfall
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Chemical time trends for precipitation, throughfall, and soilwater (1986–1992), and groundwater (1980–1993) at Birkenes, southern Norway, are compared to gain insights into possible causes for the recent increase in groundwater acidification there. Precipitation and throughfall trends do not show evidence for an increase in anthropogenic acids (e.g. sulphate), but seasalt deposition (e.g. chloride) has been marginally greater in 1990–1992 than in most previous years on record. Soilwater composition partly indicates increasing acidification in recent years (pH, Al and ANC), but hardness and sulphate content are decreasing. Soilwater ANC became negative in 1989, revealing a lasting deficit in its potential to buffer acidity. Groundwater shows clear signs of intensifying acidification (pH, Al, ANC, hardness and sulphate), and this may result partly from climatic conditions (mild winters, ‘seasalt episodes’) and partly from the deterioration of an acid buffering system within the soil cover. Acidification via sulphate deposition certainly is not a direct cause. The declining hardness of soilwater suggests that the ion-exchange buffer in the soil may have ceased to function properly. The necessity for obtaining long-term time-series of water chemistry is underscored by this study.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00477251
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  • 100
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    Watershed base-cation cycle dynamics modeled over forest regrowth in a Central Appalachian ecosystem (1996)
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 89 (1996), S. 1-22 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: biogeochemistry ; watershed ; watershed analysis ; model ; budget ; input-output ; base cations ; dynamics ; weathering ; forest floor ; nutrient cycles ; soil ; acidification ; depletion ; ecosystem
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Watershed ecosystem analysis has been used to study aspects of nutrient cycles in many regions of the US. Here we quantify watershed input-output budgets and intrasystem cycling of the base cations Ca, K and Mg in a montane Virginia ecosystem. The intrasystem fluxes of uptake, return, canopy leaching and mineralization were simulated over the period of forest aggradation. A forest-dynamics model, based on previous models, was created to model biotically-driven fluxes at this site; biomass nutrient concentrations were parameterized with a field study. A two-year watershed mass-balance study was then conducted to estimate geologic fluxes for comparison with modeled biotic fluxes. Results show the major biotic fluxes to be much greater, highlighting the importance of considering biomass dynamics in ecosystem nutrient-cycling studies. Mineralization from forest-floor biomass compartments proved to be an increasingly important avenue for internal recycling during aggradation. Accumulation of base cations in biomass also corresponded to a production of H+ in soil at three times the H+ levels in atmospheric deposition at this location. Such high levels of base removal in soils could exceed weathering rates and may result in a depletion of bases from the soil exchange complex.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00300418
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