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  • 1
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    PANGAEA
    In:  EPIC3INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS, Laxenburg, Austria., Bremerhaven, PANGAEA
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: PANGAEA Documentation , notRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
    ISSN: 0378-1119
    Keywords: Recombinant DNA ; folding ; secretion vectors ; signal sequence ; tumor necrosis factor ; β-lactamase
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Biology
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 3
    ISSN: 1365-2486
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Biology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: The rapidly increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may lead to significant changes in regional and seasonal climate patterns. Such changes can strongly influence the diversity and distribution of species and, therefore, affect ecosystems and biodiversity. To assess these changes we developed a model, called euromove. The model uses climate data from 1990 to 2050 as compiled from the image 2 model, and determines climate envelopes for about 1400 plant species by multiple logistic regression analysis. The climate envelopes were applied to the projected climate to obtain predictions about plant diversity and distributions by 2050. For each European grid cell, euromove calculates which species would still occur in forecasted future climate conditions and which not. The results show major changes in biodiversity by 2050. On average, 32% of the European plant species that were present in a cell in 1990 would disappear from that cell. The area, in which 32% or more of the 1990 species will disappear, takes up 44% of the modelled European area. Individual responses of the plant species to the forecasted climate change were diverse. In reviewing possible future trends, we found that plant species, in general, would find their current climate envelopes further northeast by 2050, shifting ranges that were comparable with those ranges in other studies.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 38 (1995), S. 205-216 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Because of the importance and complexity of the processes involved in the response of land cover and land use to changing environmental conditions, other approaches are required to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation options. One such approach is provided by the global integrated assessment model, IMAGE 2. This article presents the structure and some of the underlying assumptions of IMAGE 2, which illustrates the importance of feedback processes in evaluating the effectiveness of mitigation options with respect to land use. Although models such as IMAGE 2 are unsuitable for local and national mitigation evaluations, they can be used to define the regional and global constraints of the smaller scale assessments.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 70 (1993), S. 615-628 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The terrestrial biosphere component of the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE 2) uses changes in land cover to compute dynamically the C fluxes between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. The model explores the potential impact of feedback processes incorporated in the model, which are the enhancement of plant growth (CO2 fertilization) and a more efficient use of water under increased CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere; the temperature response of photosynthesis and respiration of plants; the temperature and soil water response of decomposition processes; and the climate-induced changes in vegetation and agricultural patterns with the consequent changes in land cover. In this paper we discuss the implementation and operation of the different feedback processes in the IMAGE 2 model. Results are shown for each process separately as well as the combined processes. The aim of this paper is to quantify the importance of these feedback processes geographically. The main results are that vegetation shifts due to climatic change and increased water use efficiency, CO2 fertilization decreases net C emissions, while changed decomposition rates strongly increase C emissions to the atmosphere. Changes in the global balance between photosynthesis and respiration make little net difference. With the IPPC business-as-usual scenario the terrestrial biosphere continues to emit C into the atmosphere. This behavior is governed by changes in land-use, caused by a multitude of anthropogenic processes.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 70 (1993), S. 19-37 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract There is great uncertainty with regard to the future role of the terrestrial biosphere in the global carbon cycle. The uncertainty arises from both an inadequate understanding of current pools and fluxes as well as the potential effects of rising atmospheric concentrations of CO2 on natural ecosystems. Despite these limitations, a number of studies have estimated current and future patterns of terrestrial carbon storage. Future estimates focus on the effects of a climate change associated with a doubled atmospheric concentration of CO2. Available models for examining the dynamics of terrestrial carbon storage and the potential role of forest management and landuse practices on carbon conservation and sequestration are discussed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 7
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; global change ; integrated assessment ; integrated models ; scenario analysis ; carbon cycle ; biofuels
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric concentrations of gases, temperature, precipitation, land cover and other indicators. Included are a “Conventional Wisdom” scenario, and three variations of this scenario: (i) the Conventional Wisdom scenario is a reference case which is partly based on the input assumptions of the IPCC's IS92a scenario; (ii) the “Biofuel Crops” scenario assumes that most biofuels will be derived from new cropland; (iii) the “No Biofuels” scenario examines the sensitivity of the system to the use of biofuels; and (iv) the “Ocean Realignment” scenario investigates the effect of a large-scale change in ocean circulation on the biosphere and climate. Results of the biofuel scenarios illustrate the importance of examining the impact of biofuels on the full range of greenhouse gases, rather than only CO2. These scenarios also indicate possible side effects of the land requirements for energy crops. The Ocean Realignment scenario shows that an unexpected, low probability event can both enhance the build-up of greenhouse gases, and at the same time cause a temporary cooling of surface air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. However, warming of the atmosphere is only delayed, not avoided.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 8
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; biogeophysical feedbacks ; geographically explicit global C cycle model ; CO2 fertilization ; soil respiration ; land cover change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A Terrestrial C Cycle model that is incorporated in the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE 2.0) is described. The model is a geographically explicit implementation of a model that simulates the major C fluxes in different compartments of the terrestrial biosphere and between the biosphere and the atmosphere. Climatic parameters, land cover and atmospheric C concentrations determine the result of the dynamic C simulations. The impact of changing land cover patterns, caused by anthropogenic activities (shifting agriculture, de- and afforestation) and climatic change are modeled implicitly. Feedback processes such as CO2 fertilization and temperature effects on photosynthesis, respiration and decomposition are modeled explicitly. The major innovation of this approach is that the consequences of climate change are taken into account instantly and that their results can be quantified on a global medium-resolution grid. The objectives of this paper are to describe the C cycle model in detail, present the linkages with other parts of the IMAGE 2.0 framework, and give an array of different simulations to validate and test the robustness of this modeling approach. The computed global net primary production (NPP) for the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 was 60.6 Gt C a−1, with a global net ecosystem production (NEP) of 2.4 Gt C a−1. The simulated C flux as result from land cover changes was 1.1 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere in 1990 acted as a C sink of 1.3 Gt C a−1. Global phytomass amounted 567.5 Gt C and the dead biomass pool was 1517.7 Gt C. IMAGE 2.0 simulated for the period 1970–2050 a global average temperature increase of 1.6 °C and a global average precipitation increase of 0.1 mm/day. The CO2 concentration in 2050 was 522.2 ppm. The computed NPP for the year 2050 is 82.5 Gt C a−1, with a NEP of 8.1 Gt C a−1. Projected land cover changes result in a C flux of 0.9 Gt C a−1, so that the terrestrial biosphere will be a strong sink of 7.2 Gt C a−1. The amount of phytomass hardly changed (600.7 Gt C) but the distribution over the different regions had. Dead biomass increased significantly to 1667.2 Gt C.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 76 (1994), S. 133-161 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: biome ; climate ; crop yield ; global data bases ; land cover ; potential vegetation ; simulation models ; soil
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The terrestrial biosphere component of the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE 2.0) uses changes in land cover to compute dynamically the greenhouse gas fluxes between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. Potential land cover for both natural ecosystems and agrosystems, are determined with the Terrestrial Vegetation Model (TVM). TVM consists of separate submodels for the water-balance, global vegetation patterns, crop distribution and potential rain fed crop yield. All these submodels are based on local climatic, hydrological and soil characteristics and appropriate global data bases for those parameters are collected or compiled. The structure of all models, data bases and linkages between them and other modules of IMAGE 2.0 are described. Although computationally demanding, the models give an adequate description of the global vegetation and agricultural patterns. The only discrepancy occurs in regions where the vegetation and agricultural distribution depends on causes other than climatic, such as additional water storage and supply, anthropogenic influence and natural disturbance. Despite this discrepancy, we conclude that TVM simulates satisfactory global vegetation characteristics and that it can be adequately integrated with other models of IMAGE 2.0.
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  • 10
    ISSN: 1573-5052
    Keywords: Boreal forest ; Canopy gaps ; Forest regeneration ; Forest structure ; Spatial pattern analysis ; Sapling establishment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract The spatial pattern of seedlings, saplings and canopy trees was studied in two spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests in central Sweden. Canopy and forest structure were determined in five 0.25 ha plots. Life stage classes were distinguished on the basis of age and size distributions. Ripley's K-function (1977) was used to analyze the spatial patterns within each class. A random distribution of seedlings gave way to a more aggregated pattern on a small scale during the establishment phase. Saplings and sub-canopy trees were strongly aggregated and canopy trees were again randomly distributed within the plots. The proportion of individuals growing in gaps was used as an index of association between the spatial pattern in saplings and sub-canopy trees and the occurrence of small (50–350 m2) canopy gaps. Under the null hypothesis of independence the expected value of this statistic would equal the canopy gap ratio for the stand. Monte Carlo simulation of this statistic, using fixed sapling positions and randomly repositioned canopy gaps, confirmed the importance of canopy gaps for the final success of establishment of spruce. The association of understorey trees with gaps suggest that small gaps are typically closed by recruitment of new saplings from a sapling bank rather than by the release of larger suppressed trees.
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