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  • 1
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 1-16 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Width function ; instantaneous unit hydrograph ; peak ; regression ; birth-death process
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract We investigate optimal predictors of the peak (S) and distance to peak (T) of the width function of drainage networks under the assumption that the networks are topologically random with independent and exponentially distributed link lengths. Analytical results are derived using the fact that, under these assumptions, the width function is a homogeneous Markov birth-death process. In particular, exact expressions are derived for the asymptotic conditional expectations ofS andT given network magnitudeN and given mainstream lengthH. In addition, a simulation study is performed to examine various predictors ofS andT, includingN, H, and basin morphometric properties; non-asymptotic conditional expectations and variances are estimated. The best single predictor ofS isN, ofT isH, and of the scaled peak (S divided by the area under the width function) isH. Finally, expressions tested on a set of drainage basins from the state of Wyoming perform reasonably well in predictingS andT despite probable violations of the original assumptions.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 2
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 68-69 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 3
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 281-292 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Generalised Pareto distribution ; Peaks over threshold ; Probability weighted moments ; Regionalisation
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract A peaks over threshold (POT) method of analysing daily rainfall values is developed using a Poisson process of occurrences and a generalised Pareto distribution (GPD) for the exceedances. The parameters of the GPD are estimated by the method of probability weighted moments (PWM) and a method of combining the individual estimates to define a regional curve is proposed.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 4
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 31-49 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Reservoir operation ; prediction ; Kalman filtering ; flood prevention ; fuzzy control
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Japan has traditionally performed flood prevention through the construction and use of dikes, storage reservoirs, and basins which are costly and time consuming options. Another non-structural option is to operate the flood control system appropriately with a view to reducing flood damage. In this paper, a flood control system combining the runoff prediction model in the whole river basin with the reservoir operation is discussed. Different models of the runoff process are introduced in order to compare their accuracies and the computational time for the flood forecasting system. The reservoir operational rule is formulated in terms of fuzzy inference theory. Historical data are applied in a case study for verification of the proposed theories.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 5
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 69-69 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 6
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 154-154 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 7
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 155-178 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Stochastic differential equations ; Stochastic Taylor formula ; Numerical methods ; Simulations ; Strong convergence ; Weak convergence
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The development of numerical methods for stochastic differential equations has intensified over the past decade. The earliest methods were usually heuristic adaptations of deterministic methods, but were found to have limited accuracy regardless of the order of the original scheme. A stochastic counterpart of the Taylor formula now provides a framework for the systematic investigation of numerical methods for stochastic differential equations. It suggests numerical schemes, which involve multiple stochastic integrals, of higher order of convergence. We shall survey the literature on these and on the earlier schemes in this paper. Our discussion will focus on diffusion processes, but we shall also indicate the extensions needed to handle processes with jump components. In particular, we shall classify the schemes according to strong or weak convergence criteria, depending on whether the approximation of the sample paths or of the probability distribution is of main interest.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 8
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 217-226 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Stochastic integral equation method ; rainfall-runoff models ; confidence interval
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The stochastic integral equation method (S.I.E.M.) is used to evaluate the relative performance of a set of both calibrated and uncalibrated rainfall-runoff models with respect to prediction errors. The S.I.E.M. is also used to estimate confidence (prediction) interval values of a runoff criterion variable, given a prescribed rainfall-runoff model, and a similarity measure used to condition the storms that are utilized for model calibration purposes. Because of the increasing attention given to the issue of uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modeling estimates, the S.I.E.M. provides a promising tool for the hydrologist to consider in both research and design.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 9
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 241-260 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Hat matrix ; Mahalanobis distance ; Additive outliers ; Innovation outliers ; Influential data ; Autoregressive models ; Threshold autoregression ; Lake Huron
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract A practical method is developed for outlier detection in autoregressive modelling. It has the interpretation of a Mahalanobis distance function and requires minimal additional computation once a model is fitted. It can be of use to detect both innovation outliers and additive outliers. Both simulated data and real data re used for illustration, including one data set from water resources.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 10
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 293-316 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Confined aquifer ; Transmissivity identification ; Geostatistics ; Inverse problem ; Ill-posedness ; Ill-conditioning ; Stability analysis ; Regularization
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract In recent years, geostatistical concepts have been applied to the inverse problem of transmissivity estimation from piezometric head data. It has been claimed that such methods overcome various difficulties encountered in other approaches. However, the reconstruction of transmissivity from head measurements is ill-posed as it depends on derivatives of the head field. Consequently, any accurate method for its solution is likely to encounter numerically ill-conditioned systems. This paper reviews the geostatistical approach, and uses the stability analyses of linear algebra to show that, as the amount of available data increases and the discretization of the system is refined, both a numerically ill-conditioned parameter estimation problem and ill-conditioned cokriging equations may appear. Therefore, while the geostatistical approach does have conceptual appeal, it does not avoid the fundamental difficulties arising out of the ill-posed nature of transmissivity identification. Instead, the method is likely to be quite sensitive to these difficulties, so care must be taken in its formulation to minimize their effects. A means to stabilize the geostatistical method is suggested and numerical experiments that highlight key points of our analysis are given.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 11
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 85-96 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Stochastic equations ; irregularly spaced observations ; prediction, interpolation ; random fields
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The steady state two dimensional groundwater flow equation with constant transmissivities was studied by Whittle in 1954 as a stochastic Laplace equation. He showed that the correlation function consisted of a modified Bessel function of the second kind, order 1, multiplied by its argument. This paper uses this pioneering work of Whittle to fit an aquifer head field to unequally spaced observations by maximum likelihood. Observational error is also included in the model. Both the isotropic and anisotropic cases are considered. The fitted field is then calculated on a two dimensional grid together with its standard deviation. The method is closely related to the use of two-dimensional splines for fitting surfaces to irregularly spaced observations.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 12
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 71-84 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Hydraulics ; quasilinearization ; simulation ; stochastic ; estuarine system ; Monte Carlo methods ; random differential equations ; parameter uncertainty
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract A new methodology is presented for the solution of the stochastic hydraulic equations characterizing steady, one-dimensional estuarine flow. The methodology is predicated on quasi-linearization, perturbation methods, and the finite difference approximation of the stochastic differential operators. Assuming Manning's roughness coefficient is the principal source of uncertainty in the model, stochastic equations are presented for the water depths and flow rates in the estuarine system. Moment equations are developed for the mean and variance of the water depths. The moment equations are compared with the results of Monte Carlo simulation experiments. The results confirm that for any spatial location in the estuary that (1) as the uncertainty in the channel roughness increases, the uncertainty in mean depth increases, and (2) the predicted mean depth will decrease with increasing uncertainty in Manning'sn. The quasi-analytical approach requires significantly less computer time than Monte Carlo simulations and provides explicit
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 13
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 135-153 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Stochastic partial differential equations ; maximum likelihood estimation ; parameter estimation ; moment equations ; stodhastic contaminant transport
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Many problems in hydraulics and hydrology are described by linear, time dependent partial differential equations, linearity being, of course, an assumption based on necessity. Solutions to such equations have been obtained in the past based purely on deterministic consideration. The derivation of such a solution requires that the initial conditions, the boundary conditions, and the parameters contained within the equations be stipulated in exact terms. It is obvious that the solution so derived is a function of these specified, values. There are at least four ways in which randomness enters the problem. i) the random initial value problem; ii) the random boundary value problem; iii) the random forcing problem when the non-homogeneous part becomes random and iv) the random parameter problem. Such randomness is inherent in the environment surrounding the system, the environment being endowed with a large number of degrees of freedom. This paper considers the problem of groundwater flow in a phreatic aquifer fed by rainfall. The goveming equations are linear second order partial differential equations. Explicit form solutions to this randomly forced equation have been derived in well defined regular boundaries. The paper also provides a derivation of low order moment equations. It contains a discussion on the parameter estimation problem for stochastic partial differential equations.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 14
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 179-190 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Groundwater ; Stochastic ; Monte Carlo simulation ; First order Taylor series approximation
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The expected head and standard deviation of the head from the first order Taylor series approximation is compared to Monte Carlo simulation, for steady flow in a confined aquifer with transmissivity as a random variable. Emphasis is on the effect of changes in the covariance structure of the transmissivity, and pumping rates, on the errors in the first order Taylor series approximation. The accuracy of the first order Taylor series approximation is found to be particularly sensitive to pumping rates. With significant pumping the approximation is found to under estimate both the expected drawdown and head variance, and the error increases as the pumping rate increases. This can lead to large errors in probability constraints based on moments from the first order Taylor series approximation.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 15
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 227-240 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Kalman filter ; Maximum likelihood estimation ; Periodic models ; Stochastic hydrology ; Time series analysis
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract An exact maximum likelihood procedure is presented for estimating the parameters of a periodic autogressive-moving average (PARMA) model. To develop an estimator which is both statistically and computationally efficient, the PARMA class of models is written using a state-space representation and a Kalman filtering algorithm is used to estimate the parameters. In order to demonstrate how to fit PARMA models in practice, the most appropriate types of PARMA models are identified for fitting to two average monthly riverflow time series and the new estimator is employed for estimating the model parameters.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 16
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 17-29 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Stochastic optimization ; linear programming ; simplex method ; Karmarkar's method
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Optimization of multi-reservoir systems operations is typically a very large scale optimization problem. The following are the three types of optimization problems solved using linear programming (LP): (i) deterministic optimization for multiple periods involving fine stage intervals, for example, from an hour to a week (ii) implicit stochastic optimization using multiple years of inflow data, and (iii) explicit stochastic optimization using probability distributions of inflow data. Until recently, the revised simplex method has been the most efficient solution method available for solving large scale LP problems. In this paper, we show that an implementation of the Karmarkar's interior-point LP algorithm with a newly developed stopping criterion solves optimization problems of large multi-reservoir operations more efficiently than the simplex method. For example, using a Micro VAX II minicomputer, a 40 year, monthly stage, two-reservoir system optimization problem is solved 7.8 times faster than the advanced simplex code in MINOS 5.0. The advantage of this method is expected to be greater as the size of the problem grows from two reservoirs to multiples of reservoirs. This paper presents the details of the implementation and testing and in addition, some other features of the Karmarkar's algorithm which makes it a valuable optimization tool are illuminated.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 17
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 51-67 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Spatial rainfall estimation ; kriging ; ordinary co-kriging ; disjunctive co-kriging
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The feasibility of linear and nonlinear geostatistical estimation techniques for optimal merging of rainfall data from raingage and radar observations is investigated in this study by use of controlled numerical experiments. Synthetic radar and raingage data are generated with their hypothetical error structures that explicitly account for sampling characteristics of the two sensors. Numerically simulated rainfall fields considered to be ground-truth fields on 4×4 km grids are used in the generation of radar and raingage observations. Ground-truth rainfall fields consist of generated rainfall fields with various climatic characteristics that preserve the space-time covariance function of rainfall events in extratropical cyclonic storms. Optimal mean areal precipitation estimates are obtained based on the minimum variance, unbiased property of kriging techniques under the second order homogeneity assumption of rainfall fields. The evaluation of estimated rainfall fields is done based on the refinement of spatial predictability over what would be provided from each sensor individually. Attention is mainly given to removal of measurement error and bias that are synthetically introduced to radar measurements. The influence of raingage network density on estimated rainfall fields is also examined.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 18
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 97-110 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): ARMA processes ; fractionally differencedARMA processes ; long memory ; spectral density ; maximum likelihood estimates
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract A class of regression type estimators of the parameterd in a fractionally differencedARMA (p, q) process is introduced. This class is an extension of the estimator considered by Geweke and Porter-Hudak. In a simulation study, we compared three estimators from this class together with two approximate maximum likelihood estimators which are based on two separate approximations to the likelihood. One approximation ignores the determinant term in the likelihood and the other includes a compensating factor for the determinant. When the determinant term is included, the estimate tends to be much less biased and is in general superior to the other estimate. The approximate maximum likelihood estimator out performed, by a large margin, the regression type estimators for pureARIMA (0,d,0) processes. However, forARIMA (1,d,1) processes, a regression type estimator turned out to be the best for realizations of length 400 in 3 out of the 5 cases we tried.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 19
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 111-133 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Rainfall-runoff models ; random channel network ; regionalization ; flood frequency ; instanteous unit hydrograph
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract A rainfall-runoff model is used in conjunction with a probabilistic description of the input to this model to obtain simple regression-like relations for basin runoff in terms of basin and storm characteristics. These relations, similar to those sought in regionalization studies, are computed by evaluating the conditional distribution of model output given basin and storm characteristics. This method of conditioning provides a general way of examining model sensitivity to various components of model input. The resulting relations may be expected to resemble corresponding relations obtained by regionalization using actual runoff to the extent that the rainfall-runoff model and the model input specification are physically realistic. The probabilistic description of model input is an extension of so-called “random-model” of channel networks and involves postulating an ensemble of basins and associated probability distributions that mimic the variability of basin characteristics seen in nature. Application is made to small basins in the State of Wyoming. Parameters of the input variable distribution are estimated using data from Wyoming, and basin-scale relations are estimated both, parametrically and nonparametrically using model-generated runoff from simulated basins. Resulting basin-scale relations involving annual flood quantiles are in reasonable agreement with those presented in a previous regionalization study, but error estimates are smaller than those in the previous study, an artifact of the simplicity of the rainfall-runoff model used in this paper. We also obtain relations for peak of the instantaneous unit hydrograph which agree fairly well with theoretical relations given in the literature. Finally, we explore the issues of sensitivity of basin-scale, relations and error estimates to parameterization of the model input probability distribution and of how this sensitivity is related to making inferences about a particular ungaged basin.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 20
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 191-202 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Random variable ; Distribution ; Estimation ; Probability analysis ; Cross-entropy ; Fractile constraints ; Flood
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The cross-entropy method with fractile constraints has been developed to estimate a random variable when the data are a set of independent observations of the variable. The method can claim several advantages over existing methods. It uses a reference distribution like the prior distribution in Bayesian analysis and likewise generates a posterior distribution. The method is of interest, in particular, because it satisfies two fundamental requirements for selfconsistency in the analysis of a probabilistic system based on data: a principle of invariance and a principle of data monotonicity. The method is applied to flood analysis. Robustness of the minimum cross-entropy method is compared with other methods: the methods of moments and the maximum likehood.
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  • 21
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 203-216 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Cloud seeding ; Rainfall enhancement ; Regression
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract A comparison is carried out between historical records of the flow measured in Kinneret watershed during and prior to the time of cloud seeding for rainfall enhancement. Precipitation series for the control area of the meteorological experimentation serve as a reference for the comparison. The fluctuations of the flow, which would have occurred unless the effect of the seeding, are estimated by a linear regression on the precipitation as the control. The regression parameters are calibrated separately for the unseeded and for the seeded time series. The model with the parameters calibrated for the unseeded series is applied on the rainfall recorded during the seeded time, and vice versa. The difference between the measured and the computed data is attributed to the effect of cloud seeding. Similar comparisons are carried out with respect to rainfall series recorded at the target area and at the edge of the enhanced area. The results indicate that the flow from the affected sector of the watershed has been enhanced, with respect to the control, by 31×106 m 3/year, at a significance level of 31. This enhancement is 5% of the volume which is generated in that area. The rates found with respect to the rainfall at the edge are higher than those found with respect to the control, while those with respect to the rainfall at the center of the target area are lower.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 22
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 3 (1989), S. 261-280 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Schlagwort(e): Rain fields ; time-space arrivals ; stochastic model
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract Rainfall in time at any ground location can be described by the rain intensity distribution over the subtrajectories which are drawn by the ground location point on the radar-detected incremental rain fields (IRFs) that pass over this location. Based on this conceptualization, this study develops a stochastic description of the arrivals of IRF subtrajectories (SIRFs) onto any given set of ground locations over a geographical region. The arrivals of SIRFs is described by a multivariate doubly stochastic Poisson process, excited by the time-space arrival process of IRFs onto the designated geographical region. The arrival process of IRFs is described by a 3-level time-space nonhomogeneous Poisson cluster model. At the primary level of this model are the arrivals of synoptic cyclonic systems; at the secondary level are the arrivals of large mesoscale rain areas (LMSAs) and at the tertiary level are the arrivals of IRFs onto the designated geographical region, all detected by the weather radar. The models are substantiated both by the graphical analysis of rain fields, as detected on a radar scope, and by the statistical analysis of the arrivals data at all of the four levels at three different ground locations over a rectangular geographical region in Northern Kentucky. It is pointed out that a doubly stochastic Poisson process is basically a Poisson cluster process. Hence, the final process of SIRF arrivals onto any ground location may be interpreted as a 4-level Poisson cluster process. Finally, heavy tails in the sample covariance density functions of the IRF and SIRF arrivals are detected. This study shows that the appropriate incorporation of clustering at all observable distinct scales of the rain fields models the heavy tail behavior of the covariance density adequately.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 23
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    The annals of regional science 23 (1989), S. 1-2 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 24
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    The annals of regional science 23 (1989), S. 29-39 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract This study develops a model to determine the optimal location of plants producing a single product on a non-homogenous plain. The mutual interdependence of price, demand, production cost and transportation cost is taken into consideration. Under uniform pricing and an uneven distribution of demand, the objective is to determine the maximum-profit location. No direct method exists to find the profit-maximizing solution. Therefore, the number, size and location of plants are determined using a step-wise heuristic approach.
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  • 25
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    The annals of regional science 23 (1989), S. 69-80 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 26
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    The annals of regional science 23 (1989), S. 81-91 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract How should the suppliers of a commodity be located so as to generate the greatest amount of welfare per unit area? Welfare is defined as consumers' surplus plus producers' profits. Costs of production are assumed to be linear functions of output identical for all firms and at all locations. Consumers are distributed in an unbounded two dimensional space at uniform density. They have identical linear demand functions. We determine both the optimal shape and the optimal radius of a representative firm's market area and compare them to those under free entry; the Löschian case of monopolistic competition. The general shape is that of rounded hexagons (or hexagonally flattened circles) with hexagons and circles as limiting cases. When fixed costs are high and firms are few, free entry creates fewer firms than is optimal, contrary to the well-known results for a free entry equilibrium in non-spatial monopolistic competition.
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  • 27
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    The annals of regional science 23 (1989), S. 121-136 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract This study analyzes the role productivity plays in explaining the variation in regional manufacturing growth rates. Using the neoclassical growth accounting procedure, we measure productivity from an intertemporal and interspatial perspective. Previous regional studies of U.S. manufacturing look only at the contribution of intertemporal productivity growth in explaning regional growth. These studies ignore the level of productivity and its effect on regional growth. For each year of our study, we rank regions by their interspatial productivity index. We find little difference between the productivity growth rates among the regions of the north and south. Differences among the regions emerge only when we consider interspatial productivity differentials. The North's level of factor productivity is 25 to 30% higher than the South's. The absolute productivity disadvantage of the South, however, is offset by its low input prices. Thus, it is the cost advantage of the South and not its productivity advantage that explains the region's relatively high growth rate.
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  • 28
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    The annals of regional science 23 (1989), S. 223-240 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract In affluent mixed economies, social security programs are often the single most effective instrument to reach a minimal level of interregional income inequality. This paper extensively investigates the spatial structure and the interregional impacts of these programs in The Netherlands, using a mixture of decomposition techniques, factor analysis and cluster analysis.
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  • 29
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    The annals of regional science 23 (1989), S. 255-274 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract This paper gives a review of operational multiregional economic models from the viewpoint of infrastructure. Three approaches can be distinguished towards the relationship between infrastructure and regional development. First, infrastructure can be modelled as a production factor, in a production function. Second, infrastructure can be modelled as a location factor influencing the location of private investment or employment. Third, the importance of transportation infrastructure can be analyzed via its impact on interregional trade flows.
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  • 30
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    The annals of regional science 23 (1989), S. 299-309 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract Under and overdesign is a major consideration in public infrastructure expansion. Traditional engineering economies of scale leading to overdesign errors must be counterbalanced by greater attention to high cost financing. Uncertainty in demand forecasting and in financial markets make decision tools which incorporate measures of information imperfection increasingly important. Further issues of overall social welfare make the question of short term and intergenerational equity major concerns. A rational expectations stochastic-analog of the conventional, present value, infrastructure expansion model has optimal overdesign properties. The problem is restated as a two-person, planner vs. future, social welfare game in a simple capital loss model. Sensitivity analysis shows the game-theoretic model which favors expansion underdesign is relatively less sensitive to greater demand forecast uncertainty than the rational expectations model.
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  • 31
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    The annals of regional science 23 (1989), S. 287-298 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract This paper deals with the allocation of public investments to some of the prospective key elements in the regional infrastructure. Two optimization models are suggested for allocating investment resources among regions and various infrastructure elements. Applications of the models illustrate solutions based on policy goals of economic efficiency and regional equity. The optimization models draw on the estimation of an aggregate regional production function.
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  • 32
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    The annals of regional science 23 (1989), S. 329-329 
    ISSN: 1432-0592
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Geographie , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 33
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 40 (1989), S. 3-27 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary We use the spatial coherence of the fit of analyses to observation as the basis for new diagnostics of the performance of any linear objective analysis system. The diagnostics provide answers to such questions as: • Is the system using mass (or wind) observations efficiently?; • Are the analyses faithful to the mass/wind balance in the data?; • What is the effective data density? Up to now these questions could only be answered indirectly, by evaluation of the forecasts resulting from the analyses, or by study of the changes made by the initialisation. The lack of simple objective methods to address these questions has sometimes resulted in controversy about the interpretation of data impact studies. Suppose, in a practical analysis system, that the observation errors are uniform and uncorrelated, and the observations are homogeneously distributed. We show (for any practical linear analysis system) that if the Observation-minus-Analysis (OmA) auto-correlations are positive when extrapolated to zero separation, then the analysis has certainly not extracted all the information from the observations, and does not fit the data to within the observational error. If however the extrapolated OmA correlations are negative, then the analysis system does fit the data to within observational accuracy. If, in addition, the weights given to the observations in the analysis of the observed values are known, one can derive useful estimates of the analysis error at the observation points. This last result leads to an estimate of the effective data density. Along with the new verifications of mass and wind analyses, methods are developed to estimate the effectiveness with which data on mass-wind balance have been used. The results for practical analysis systems are used to interpret empirical determinations of the OmA auto-correlations in the ECMWF analysis system, for data with uncorrelated errors. We shall say that a practical analysis system is efficient if the data are fitted to within observational error, and is inefficient otherwise. The methods demonstrate that operational mid-tropospheric wind analyses over North America are quite efficient, but that the windshear and thickness analyses near the tropopause over North America are inefficient. The analysis of mass wind balance over North America is efficient for any single level, but the analysis of thermal wind balance for thin layers near the tropopause is inefficient, most notably on short horizontal scales. The analysis of the wind shear near the tropical tropopause is somewhat better than over North America, probably because of the use of sharper vertical structure functions.
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  • 34
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary An outline is given of the numerical formulations that have been utilized for medium-range prediction at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The sigma-coordinate grid-point model adopted for the first phase of operational forecasting, and the hybrid-coordinate spectral model which replaced it, are described. Particular emphasis is placed on aspects of the time-stepping employed in the spectral model. It is shown how a semi-implicit treatment of the zonal advection of vorticity and specific humidity, and selective use of enhanced horizontal diffusion, enables time-steps to be used which are well over 50% longer than would otherwise be possible in a spectral model with a classical semi-implicit treatment of gravity-wave terms, with negligible computational cost and negligible impact on forecast accuracy, at T 106 resolution at least. Some discussion of the stability of the semi-implicit gravity-wave scheme is also included. The experimental evidence which led to the operational change from the grid-point to the spectral model is summarized, and the sensitivity of forecasts to the horizontal resolution of the spectral model is illustrated. Both the change in method and increases in resolution result in systematic improvements in the details of cyclone development, and they occasionally have major beneficial impact on the evolution of the forecast in the medium range. Conventional objective verification indicates a much smaller mean improvement of T 106 resolution over T 63 than of T 63 over T 42, although the advantage of T 106 is nevertheless clear-cut. This advantage is more than confirmed by synoptic assessment. Scope for further improvement is indicated by first results from global forecasts with a resolution of T 159. Indications of sensitivity to the magnitude of horizontal diffusion and the resolution of the model orography are also given. The spectral model was initially used operationally with a 16-level vertical resolution, and the uppermost level at which prognostic variables were held was 25 mb. The results which justified a subsequent change to 19 levels, with increased stratospheric resolution and a 10 mb top level, are presented. In this case the principal medium-range forecast improvement came about because better initial analyses could be produced when the 19-level model was used in data assimilation.
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  • 35
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 40 (1989), S. 84-109 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary The problem of representing the drag due to subgridscale orography is examined. Results from model simulations are used to illustrate clear deficiencies in the global angular momentum budgets and possible ways of correcting for these deficiencies are considered. It is argued that a formulation for the stress due to subgridscale gravity waves is required, as was first recognized by Boer et al. (1984a, b), and the impact of a scheme based on Palmer et al. (1986) is presented. The scheme is improved by using directionally-dependent subgridscale orographic variances. Results from 90-day integrations using the ECMWF and UKMO models with similar resolutions are very much in accord both with and without a wave drag parametrization scheme; showing much improved wintertime circulations. The relationship between the wave drag and the model orography is examined with the use of idealized stress profiles whereby the wave drag is limited to either near the surface or in the stratosphere. A combination of parametrized wave drag with an envelope orography performs best at this stage of development. Results are presented from a substantial series of ten-day forecast experiments with the ECMWF operational model using mean and (1 σ) envelope orographies, these show significant improvements in forecast skill.
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  • 36
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 40 (1989), S. 170-180 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary Since early experiments by Renard and Clarke in 1965 there has been until now no essential progress in numerical frontal analysis. To overcome the frequent lack of agreement of frontal analysis between different analysts and weather bureau centers an objective frontal analysis model seems to be necessary. Therefore an attempt will be made to develop an algorithm to analyse fronts in relation to their location, type and activity by a numerical method.
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  • 37
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 40 (1989), S. 150-158 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary We have used a two dimensional version of a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model to simulate atmospheric gravity currents for different thermal stratification. The horizontal and vertical grid increments are chosen such, that the major features of a current like head and elevated nose are resolvable. When the density current propagates into a neutral stratified environment it was found, that frontspeed agrees well with an empirical formula. Also characteristic length scales like depth of the head or height of the following cold air body agree well with observations found in water tank experiments. When a stable atmosphere is adopted, the front moves faster and the generated gravity waves have a significant influence on the atmospheric variables ahead of the current. This results especially in a pressure increase before the front arrives, an effect, which was found in observations, too. Finally, it is shown, that an elevated inversion, embedded in a stable layer, intensifies the vertical velocities and therefore the mesoscale heat flux, which results in a stronger entrainment. For this case a remarkable decrease of front speed is simulated with time.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 38
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 40 (1989), S. 189-193 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary Generalized hydrostatic and geostrophic equations can be derived from the equations in the terrain-following framework. The generalized hydrostatic equation permits some non-hydrostatic motions (as obtained from a Cartesian framework) to remain when a non-zero slope exists. Correspondingly, the generalized geostrophic wind permits a horizontal divergent component (in addition to divergence caused by the change of Coriolis parameter with latitude) to occur when the slope angle is not zero.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 39
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 40 (1989), S. 181-188 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary Multivariate randomized block permutation procedures (MRBP) can be used effectively to verify numerical models. Compared to other statistical methods, MRBP shows several distinct advantages. First of all, MRBP operates in the same Euclidean analysis space as its input data. The root mean square error (RMSE) is discussed, since it is a natural choice as a distance measure between two data sets and is closely related to the distance measure on which MRBP is based. The RMSE by itself provides no basis for inferential comparisons, whereas MRBP is well suited for such deductions. Since MRBP is computationally economical and requires only a few case studies for meaningful comparisons, it is also useful for model development.
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  • 40
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 40 (1989), S. 211-224 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary The article brings together theoretical knowledge about the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) which should be typical for smog situations and ABL features observed during two severe smog episodes. It can be shown that the convective boundary layer (CBL) as a special ABL type is very favourable for the occurrence of smog and that at first glance simple modelling of the CBL seems to recommend itself for forecasting purposes. However, the real smog situations show much more complexity, and even high reaching (up to 1500 m) stable boundary layers (SBL) occur. Simple modelling fails because important input parameters (such as vertical wind and advection terms) cannot be derived neither from measurements nor from meso-scale models in sufficient accuracy. Even the most advanced forecast models cannot describe the ABL structure correctly or in sufficient detail to estimate the development of a smog situation.
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  • 41
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 13-18 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary A number of star observations, which were carried out at the Stephanion Observatory located in southern Greece, was analysed in order to determine the turbidity parameters α and β of the atmosphere. The method used is a modification of the de Vaucouleurs' method (1965) employing least squares analysis. The results which were found for these parameters are bounded in the expected limits.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 42
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 19-34 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary Surface weather observations are analyzed to investigate the temporal and spatial distributions of dust loading associated with the southwest Indian summer monsoon region. The 1979 annual distribution of dust days for the region 10°N-37°N and 35°E-90°E are presented. Five year composites of dust loading for the months May, June and July are derived. Results are analyzed with respect to preferred wind direction and wind speed associated with dust loading, potential source regions and regions of deposition. A case study of the meteorological conditions of a dust outbreak that occurred over the Arabian Peninsula in June of 1979 is given. Rawinsonde temperature observations are analyzed to locate the top of the dust layer over the Rub al Khali desert. The top of the dust layer was found to vary from 400 mb during the summer to 600 mb in the late spring and early fall.
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    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 43
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 45-54 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary A forced time-dependent 1-D model of Cb cloud is used to investigate the behaviour of injected hailstones. The final hailstone radii and trajectories are calculated for three initial parameters: the initial hailstone radius, the initial hailstone density and the concentration of cloud droplets. The hailstone growth is treated as a unique process with dry, wet and melting regime. It is shown: 1) For a shallow Cb cloud with a small precipitation zone in the cloud base region the hail growth time is significantly longer than in the case without a forced lifting component. Further the recycling mechanism with/without falling down of the hail occurs. 2) For the high Cb cloud the hail growth time is longer and no recycling occurs in the case with a forced lifting component. 3) The final hailstone radius change is relatively small.
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    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 44
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 87-97 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary Monthly mean surface fields of different meteorological parameters and evaporation are studied for the 1979 (poor monsoon) and 1983 (good monsoon) monsoon seasons over the Arabian Sea, in order to understand the role of evaporation on the Indian monsoon rainfall. It is noticed that in general, the sea surface temperatures are higher in 1983 throughout the monsoon season than in 1979 in the Arabian Sea excepting western region. The mean rates of evaporation on a seasonal scale are found to be equal in both years (3.66×1010 and 3.59×1010 tons/day in 1979 and 1983, respectively). No coherence is observed between the evaporation and the west coast rainfall within a season. It is also noted that the pressure distribution over the Arabian Sea is even important to advect the moisture towards the west coast of India, through winds.
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  • 45
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary A linearised inviscid form of the hydrodynamical equations is solved in shear, with the aid of a two-layer model of the atmosphere, for waves generated along the boundary between the air masses. Results show that some modes, generated by assuming different atmospheric static stabilities for the two layers of air, propagate and amplify with time; the static stability has been given a novel definition in units of height. A case study, in pressure co-ordinates, of typical tropospheric air masses in West Africa reveals that the mode with the largest growth rate of 1.6 per hour propagates in an East-West (E-W) direction along the surface of discontinuity between the (monsoon) southwesterlies and the (dry) northeasterlies with a phase speed of 7.7 m s−1, a period of 3.6 hours and a wavelength of 100 km. Similar study inz co-ordinate reveals a mode with a growth rate of 1.8 per hour in an E-W direction, with a phase speed of 8.0 m s−1, a period of 3.5 hours and a wavelength of 100 km.
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  • 46
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 113-114 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 47
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 255-260 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary The accuracy of evaporation estimates based on meteorological observations from selected coastal stations and various methods are tested in the area of the Aegean sea. The higher values of evaporation are predicted through Smith's approach and bulk aerodynamic formula withC E=1.85×103. Priestley-Taylor parameter α and annual variation of evaporation in the are are presented analytically.
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  • 48
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 181-190 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary The ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) is an important parameter for climatic studies in tropical areas, and meteorological satellite imagery provides an original way to follow its location. Using archive imagery covering the 1971–1987 period, we attempted to study further some of the relationships (suggested by former studies) between ITCZ locations (followed here over the Atlantic ocean at 28°W), and climate anomalies in the Sahel, an area affected by periodic drought for the last seventeen years. We also paid close attention to more frequently studied parameters, such as upper air data, wind at sea level, and sea surface temperature. As for relative drought estimates, we assumed that runoff from the Senegal River was representative of the sahelian area and we observed that its variations were consistent with the Lamb's rainfall index over the 1965–1987 period. Since the onset of the rainy season for West Africa responds to wind changes, we assessed the link between ITCZ and wind at sea level and found the timing of northward ITCZ migration to be highly correlated (r=0.84) with the date of zonal wind stress intensification. On a general point of view, the relationships we found between rainfall amount and ITCZ position anomalies (or SST anomalies) agree with known results of precedent works, though better fit is found with the seventies than the eighties. We think this discrepancy is due in part to the fact that the parameters studied were not identical and, perhaps to a possible change in climatic conditions (on a long term basis, the data show a continuous trend for less intense equatorial upwelling in the gulf of Guinea, and our time series covers a more recent period than referenced works). With a closer look on the first half of the year, it appears that typical (wet/dry) schemes of the ITCZ migration can be evidenced more clearly, than in reporting the northernmost ITCZ location, that we found to be a less significant index: in other words, a sooner (respectively later) northward ITCZ migration corresponds to dry (respectively wet) episodes during the rainy season in sahelian areas. Hence, we propose the “speed” of ITCZ northwards movement as a parameterization of this event. Moisture content of the lower troposphere revealed that steady anomalies of this parameter may last several years over sahelian areas. Taking into consideration the relative strength African tropical and easterly jets, some limited results were obtained, in regard of climatic anomalies. As first conclusions, moisture transportation over sahelian area (associated with larger negative SST anomalies) is more efficient for wetter rainy season, than the intensity of convective process linked to higher local SST in the equatorial Atlantic area. In joining moisture analysis and ITZ migration (1980–1987 period), wetter rainy seasons were observed each time that positive humidity anomalies coincided with a later northward ITCZ migration (or greater northward ITCZ speed).
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  • 49
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 247-254 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary On flights with the DLR icing research aircraft the dependence of aircraft icing on cloudphysical parameters was determined; both for aircraft-referred icing and for normalized icing, as well as for various clouds and locations in clouds. This is done with an improvement of icing predicitons in mind. The species of the cloud and the distance from cloud base are called here “cloud parameters”; while under “cloudphysical parameters” are understood liquid water content, temperature, particle size distribution and particle phase. Results from four icing flights are discussed, selected from a total of forty vertical soundings. —The results are arranged in four classes: Stratus/cumulus mixed, stratus; with and without precipitation at the ground. 1. Stratus/cumulus with either simultaneous or earlier (3 h) precipitation at ground: Maxima of liquid water content (LWC: 0.75 and 0.55 g/m3, resp.) and maxima of the median volume diameter (MVD: 183 and 123 μm, resp.) both located in lower half of clouds. 2. Stratus/cumulus without precipitation: Maximum ofLWC (0.45 g/m3) in upper third of cloud, butMVD increasing from base to top of cloud (7 to 20 μm). 3. Stratus with precipitation: No results. 4. Stratus without precipitation: BothLWC andMVD increase from base to top of cloud; maxima directly beneath cloud top:LWC 0.50 g/m3;MVD 17 μm.
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  • 50
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 272-272 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 51
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 157-164 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary Results from laboratory experiments on stably stratified flows over three-dimensional obstacles are related to atmospheric vortex streets formed in the lee of large islands. A quasi horizontal flow around the island can be expected if stable stratification favours the formation of a so-called dividing streamline below the islands top. The subsequent shedding of vortices with vertical axis from islands may then be due to viscous boundary layer separation, but also other possible mechanisms of vortex shedding in stably stratified flows are discussed.
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  • 52
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 127-145 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary The results of computations of the radial circulation and associated surface pressure tendencies, needed to retain gradient wind balance in a model of an axisymmetric cyclone, due to the action of diabatic heating and boundary layer pumping, are presented. These computations show that diabatic heating will not induce further deepening (i. e. intensification) of the cyclone when this cyclone is weak and has a cold core. On the other hand, a relatively intense warmcore balanced cyclone will deepen appreciably, depending on the degree of baroclinicity and on where exactly the heat sources are located. These results underline the fact that Conditional Instability of the Second Kind (CISK) must be interpreted as a finite-amplitude instability. CISK cannot explain the genesis of a cyclone, such as a polar low or hurricane.
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  • 53
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 115-126 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary A new theoretical approach is developed for remote temperature sensing based on application of Laplace transform techniques to the radiative transfer equation. This approach allows calculation of the atmospheric temperature profile from measurements of the upwelling radiance and its derivatives. Atmospheric temperatures are obtained by this technique without the use of anya priori temperature information. This technique is applied toboth synthetic data for detailed numerical study, and to measurements of the upwelling radiance taken with the Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS). Limitations arising from experimental errors, truncation errors, round-off, numerical errors, and instability of numerical Laplace transformation are discussed.
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  • 54
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 165-179 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary The influence of a wavy surface on thermal convection of Rayleigh-Bénard type in a Boussinesq fluid is investigated by direct numerical simulations. The surface height varies sinusoidally in one direction. The wave amplitude amounts up to 10% of the fluid layer height and the wavelength equals about the critical wavelength of Rayleigh-Bénard convection. The horizontal size of the computational domain equals this wavelength. For isothermal no-slip boundaries, two-dimensional convection sets in at subcritical Rayleigh numbers in close agreement with linear theory. The heat-transfer rate grows almost with the square of the surface-wave amplitude. Convection in a fluid layer over a no-slip surface with prescribed heat flux and an adiabatic free-slip boundary at the top is investigated for supercritical Rayleigh numbers and a Prandtl number of 0.7 in two and three dimensions. Two-dimensional simulations show oscillatory roll convection which becomes almost stationary if the Rayleigh number is of order 7000 or less. The two-dimensional convection is unstable with respect to three-dimensional disturbances and a cross-role pattern evolves even over a surface which is undulated in one direction only. For Rayleigh numbers exceeding about 15 000, the flow becomes turbulent. The results exhibit little sensitivity of the convection to the wavy surface for a 10% amplitude.
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    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 55
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 213-229 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary The effects of clouds on the large-scale vorticity budget are parameterized in terms of cloud mass flux and momentum differences between the cloud ensemble and the large-scale environment. The cloud mass flux distribution is calculated using the parameterization scheme of Arakawa and Schubert (1974). For the determination of the momentum effects of a cloud ensemble, three different parameterization concepts are developed: first, constant momentum in the cloud which is injected from the environment in the convergence layer of the lower troposphere; second, a generation of a vortex couplet induced by the tilting of horizontal vorticity components; third, drag effects of clouds which interact with the large-scale flow. The computed momentum effects from each of the three parameterizations are compared with the residual of the large-scale vorticity budget for B/C-scale observations during GATE 74 Phase III using a composite technique. With moderate convection and wind shear best results are achieved by the description of the vortex couplet; intense convection and small wind shear are best explained by the constant cloud momentum model; the drag of the clouds on the large-scale flow appears to dominate during periods of weak convection.
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  • 56
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 191-211 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary A zonally averaged global energy balance model with feedback mechanisms was constructed to simulate (i) the poleward limits of ITCZ over the continent and over the ocean and (ii) a simple monsoon system as a result of differential heating between the continent and the ocean. Three numerical experiments were performed with lower boundary as (1) global continent, (2) global ocean and (3) continent-ocean, with freezing latitudes near the poles. Over the continent, midlatitude deserts were found and the ITCZ migrates 25° north and south with seasons. Over a global swamp ocean results do not show migration of ITCZ with time but once the ocean currents are introduced the ITCZ migrates 5° north and south with seasons. It was found that the seasonal migration of ITCZ strongly depends on the meridional distribution of the surface temperature. It was also found that continent influences the location of the oceanic ITCZ. In the tropics northward progression of quasi-periodic oscillations called “events” are found during the pre- and post-monsoon periods with a period of 8 to 15 days. This result is consistent with the observed quasi-periodic oscillations in the tropical region. Northward propagation of the surface temperature perturbation appears to cause changes in the sensible heat flux which in turn causes perturbations in vertical velocity and latent heat flux fields.
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  • 57
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 231-246 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary Broad scale vertical velocities have been used to predict the development over southern Australia of cloud associated with cold fronts. The vertical velocities were determined by solving explicity the quasi-geostrophic omega equation expressed in terms ofQ-vectors. The frontal cloud band was located within the are where up-motion was diagnosed, with the deepest cloud in the vicinity of the strongest upward velocities, and the rear of the band coinciding closely with the change from up- to down-motion. On those occasions when a major cloud mass evolved the region of up-motion extended to low latitudes as a clearly defined band. This band was indicative free a well developed warm conveyor belt associated with the frontal system. Areas of diagnosed down-motion were free of deep, organised cloud masses. Stronger upward motion did not produce an immediate increase in the cloudiness; typically there was a delay of 12 to 24 h before the corresponding cloud development became apparent.
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  • 58
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 261-271 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary In this paper, an attempt is made to study the atmospheric circulation, which caused the extremely hot weather in the Balkans and south Italy during the time period from 19 to 27 July 1987. Also, based on some temperature parameters and Thom's discomfort index, the weather conditions of that time period are discussed. These conditions can be characterized as extremely discomfortable for the people, animals and even plants for many hours every day, resulting in the loss of more than 1,500 lives. Finally an effort has being made to ascertain whether the phenomenon was unprecedented in harshness and duration for Greece.
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  • 59
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 40 (1989), S. 61-83 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary Recent research in dynamical extended-range prediction at the UK Meteorological Office (UKMO), based on 40-day integrations of a global 11-level general circulation model, is described. The forecast anomaly correlation scores, calculated with respect to some set of background atmospheric normals, contain a significant contribution due to differences between the normals and the true atmospheric climate for the years containing the experimental initialization dates. This contribution varies according to the choice of normals. The best set to use in practice are those which minimize the measured scores, since they are closest to the true climate. The model's own climatology is sufficiently realistic for it to be suitable for long-range forecasting. However, significant climate drift still occurs in all seasons, and empirical correction for this increases the model's skill substantially, although the use of dependent data exaggerates the improvement some-what. On average, the skill of winter and spring forecasts exceeds that of summer and autumn cases for days 1–15 and 6–20, for the domain 30–90° N. Although the mean skill remains well above zero throughout the forecast period, there are few cases of high skill, on the hemispheric scale, at extended-range. However, study of local skill, over a region centred on the UK, shows that the model's ability to forecast surface pressure anomalies compares favourably with that of the experimental long-range forecasts produced at UKMO using statistical forecasting techniques and medium-range dynamical predictions. The major improvement is for days 6–15. Based on the anomaly correlation score, encouraging results are obtained concerning the frequency with which the degree of local skill reaches a potentially useful level, and the prospects for predicting this skill in advance. However, further analysis using alternative skill scores is required to confirm these results.
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  • 60
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 40 (1989), S. 110-122 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary Subgrid-scale parameterization related to moist process are discussed. In the first half of the paper, a turbulence closure scheme, including the effect of condensation, is proposed. In this parameterization, the subgrid-scale transfer is limited within a single vertical layer of a model per each time step, and the specification of condensation is of yes-or-no type. Therefore, the scheme is suited for a mesoscale circulation model. In the second half of this paper, the bounded derivative method of Kreiss (1980) is applied to the formulation of parameterizations. One example is the derivation of various hierarchial versions in turbulence closure schemes, such as Mellor and Yamada (1974). Another example is an interpretation of the key assumption in Arakawa-Schubert (1974) theory of cumulus convection, i.e., the equilibrium of “cloud-work function”.
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  • 61
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 40 (1989), S. 123-135 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary In this paper, we try to identify and document the main specific problems encountered when parameterizing deep convection, those being essentially linked, in our experience, with: - first, the direct dynamics/physics link implicitely or explicitely assumed in all closure assumption; - second, the high scale sensitivity of the convective forcing in 3-D models. When possible, some ad-hoc techniques to alleviate these problems are presented; otherwise we suggest research orientations to try and tackle the deeper character of these difficulties. Throughout the paper, concrete NWP examples are shown to substanciate our lines of thought.
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  • 62
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 35-44 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary The First Garp Global Experiment data collected during 1979 at sea level and 850 mb level have been used to examine the origin and characteristics of the westwards moving disturbances in the western Indian Ocean. From the analyses of the above data the following sequence of events in the westwards moving disturbances has emerged: (i) Increase (decrease) in the pressure of the Mascarene High causes intensification (weakening) of the meridional pressure gradient in the region between 25°S and the equator. (ii) This increase in the pressure gradient in the region leads to increase in the zonal wind and convergence in the region. It is noteworthy that the zonal wind responds to the pressure near the Mascarene High at the quasi-biweekly period. (iii) The increase in convergence at the surface and at 850 mb level, in the region equator to 5°S and between 60°E and 75°E, gives rise to the genesis of a disturbance in this region. (iv) The disturbances are then carried westwards in the low level easterly winds to affect the Seychelles Islands and the eastern African coastal regions.
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  • 63
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 55-61 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary A laboratory investigation of the charge acquired by a riming target, simulating a soft-hailstone, during collisions with ice crystals has shown that centrifugal acceleration of the target affects the magnitude and sign of the charge transferred when the acceleration exceeds a certain value. Above this critical value, which is dependent on the ambient temperature, the charging to the hailstone is positive under low liquid water content conditions whereas at lower rotational frequencies the charging is normally negative. During collisions with supercooled water droplets, no charging was observed at low rotational frequencies. However, at high frequencies, positive charging to the hailstone was detected at all temperatures. It is suggested that these spurious charging effects are due to the break-up of the rime ice on the target surface.
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  • 64
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 99-103 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary It is proposed that squall lines are initiated through the growth (with time) of wave-like perturbations along the surface of discontinuity between the monsoon southwesterlies and the dry northeasterlies in West Africa. Out of the many possible modes of different growth rates, the modes with the largest amplification could block the 650-mb mid-tropospheric jet which, because it is cold, progressively sinks as it traverses West Africa from east to west. The distortion created by the blockage forces up parcels of convectively-unstable southwesterlies resulting in precipitation. Precipitation falls or partly evaporates into the underlying jet the latent heat of vaporisation being supplied by the jet. The jet, now cooler, sinks. While sinking, it can reach the surface of the earth and, due to the strong convergence created, a gust front is formed. The front, as a result of ascending southwesterlies, constitutes an area of vigorous convective activity which triggers off a self-regenerative mechanism of condensation, evaporation and sinking. This hypothesis, with others, is able to explain the predominance of highlands as source regions of squall lines, the close association between the propagation speed of squall lines and that of the mid-tropospheric jet, the observed overturning of the atmosphere after the passage of squalls and the possible effects of insolation and African easterly waves on the initiation process.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 65
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 63-86 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary A method for predicting the movement of cloud bands within the Southwest Monsoon based on infrared satellite imagery is described. The prediction scheme utilizes empirical orthogonal functions of large order time-space fields derived from daily sequences of TIROS-N AVHRR/GAC temperature data. Forward prediction stems from the dominant eigen-modes corresponding to the low-order fluctuations of monsoon cloudiness. The scheme is tested over the 1979 Southwest Monsoon domain throughout the active May–August monsoon season. Pixel averaging is employed to construct manageable time sequences of equivalent black-body temperature arrays which are then transformed into orthonormal representation. The right hand singular vectors correspond to eigenvectors in time; the left-hand singular vectors correspond to principal components in space. Physical interpretation of the initial eigenvectors considers the impact of both fixed geographic land/ocean configuration and monsoon oscillations. The effect of eigenvector forcing arising from the orthogonality constraint is discussed. A hierarchy of eigenvectors selection rules is developed in order to insure that there is some statistical and physical significance associated with the selected eigenvectors used in actual forecasts. Two prediction models are incorporated; the first is a straightforward Fourier extension of the eigenvector set which passes the selection rule criteria. The second is a modified Fourier extension procedure which considers dominant harmonics not necessarily associated with the discrete Fourier frequencies. The scheme is designed for predicting surges and breaks in cloudiness for the mid-and late-season monsoon, after it has become established. The foundation of the prediction scheme is based on the quasi-periodic intraseasonal modes associated with the Southwest Monsoon. Two objective verification schemes are used to assess the accuracy of the forecasts. Measures of skill are compared to persistence forecasts for a point of reference. A subjective approach which consists of visual inspection of video imagery is also incorporated. There is forecast skill above persistence although the overall objective skill scores tend to be lower than subjective evaluation would indicate. This arises from geography influences and eigenvector forcing which impacts contrast and clarity degradation to the predicted cloud fields. It is then shown how the predictions can be improved by first removing the time invariant properties of the infrared scenes. This procedure effectively reduces the influence of geography in the highest order eigenvectors, and thus improves forecast skill scores.
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  • 66
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 147-156 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary A study is undertaken of the semi-geostrophic flow of shallow water incident tangentially upon a sharp leading edged, slender, orographic feature. The nature of the response is shown to depend upon the Froude number of the upstream flow and upon the orographic shape. In particular it is deduced that the orographically split flow has a laterally asymmetric response, and that for sub-critical upstream settings a jet can develop on one particular side of the orography. Features of an easterly low-level jet observed on the Alpine northside during the ALPEX project are compared with the theory.
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  • 67
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 40 (1989), S. 159-169 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary A two-dimensional nonhydrostatic numerical model was used to investigate the behaviour of a cold air gravity current, moving along complex terrain. It is found, that the model with a high horizontal and vertical resolution and with a closure scheme, using the turbulent kinetic energy, is suitable to simulate currents, which have the main features of those found in laboratory experiments. Simulations are presented for different orographic structures (mountain and valley), for varying thermal stratification of the environmental atmosphere (neutral, stable and stable with an elevated inversion) and for different heights of the cold air reservoir. The major effect of a hill on the advance of a gravity current is a reduction of the front speed upstream as well as (even stronger) downstream of the obstacle, where the amount of this decrease depends on thermal stratification. Near surface blocking of the air flow on the windward side occurs for all simulations. However, for small depths of the oncoming cold air, the current cannot surmount the hill and remains on the lee side.
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  • 68
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 40 (1989), S. 137-149 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary The effects of varying horizontal and vertical grid resolution on the numerical simulation of upper-tropospheric frontal structures are examined using a, two-dimensional, dry, hydrostatic sigma-coordinate primitive equation model. These effects are illustrated with the results of 72 h model integrations in which frontogenesis is forced solely by confluence. Four different horizontal grid spacings, ranging from 100 km to 12.5 km, and four different vertical, grid resolutions, varying from 10 to 70 layers (∼90 mb to 13 mb), are considered. The intensity and integrity of the frontogenesis as a function of grid resolution are diagnosed in terms of time histories and spatial distributions of frontal parameters, such as the speed of the along-front jet, maxima of absolute vorticity and potential temperature gradient, and ageostrophic motions. The time histories show that, provided the vertical resolution is sufficient, increasing horizontal resolution leads to better-defined frontal structure due to the decrease in cross-frontal scale. They also indicate that for a given horizontal resolution there exists an optimal vertical resolution beyond which frontal parameters change only slightly. This optimal vertical resolution increases with increasing horizontal resolution, and apparently is related to the horizontal resolution through the slope of the frontal zone. The time histories for simulations combining low vertical resolution with high horizontal resolution exhibit substantial high-frequency variability. Cross sections show that this temporal variability appears to be manifested spatially in the form of gravity waves characterized by wavelengths on the order of 200 km and periods of 12 h, over the range of horizontal and vertical resolution that is considered. Although the source mechanism for these waves cannot be established definitively, it likely involves a grid-induced ageostrophic component of the along-front wind which disrupts thermal wind balance. This results thus demonstrates the potential risk of flawed frontal simulations, when incompatible combinations of horizontal and vertical resolution are used.
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  • 69
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 40 (1989), S. 194-210 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary A numerical model is employed to study heavy rainfall events in complex terrain. The model uses a limited-fine-mesh grid and a nested grid, but does not utilize the same set of equations on both grids. Two similar, heavy rainfall cases are contrasted with each other and with a moderate precipitation case. Sensitivity experiments illustrate the effects of topography, synoptic forcing and diabatic heating on these episodes. Model results indicate that heavy rainfall in complex terrain requires a suitable superposition of mass, momentum and moisture fields in relation to the topography. It is the mass and momentum fields, however, which primarily control the location of heaviest precipitation. Synoptically similar events may be different in their underlying causes. The diabatic heating distribution may in some cases be essential to creating such episodes heavy rain.
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  • 70
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 1-4 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary Rotational energy spectra are examined in experiments with two energy and enstrophy conserving schemes defined on the semi-staggered grid. One of the schemes conserved enstrophy as defined on an equivalent staggered grid, and the other conserved enstrophy as defined on the semi-staggered grid. As predicted by the theory (Janjić, 1984), the rotational energy corresponding to the scheme conserving enstrophy as defined on an equivalent staggered grid decreases faster with increasing intensity of the wave number vector than that of the scheme conserving enstrophy as defined on the semistaggered grid. Moreover, the spectrum obtained with the scheme conserving the equivalent staggered grid enstrophy resembles the observed atmospheric spectra in a large part of the admissible wave number range.
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  • 71
    Digitale Medien
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 41 (1989), S. 5-12 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Notizen: Summary Global features of tropical convection, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation associated with the Pacific-Japan Oscillation (PJO) are examined by using monthly mean global data for 6 years (1979–1984). It is shown that the PJO is not a local phenomena limited to the western-Pacific but related to global-scale atmosphere-ocean variations. The PJO highly correlates with interannual variations of SST in the tropical Pacific. During summers in which positive SST anomaly occurs in the tropical western Pacific, convective activity in the western Pacific especially near Philippines is strongly enhanced but that in the whole equatorial eastern Pacific is greatly suppressed due to negative SST anomaly in these areas. The Walker circulation is intensified in the equatorial Pacific and twin cyclonic cells at 200 mb are generated in the subtropical Pacific of both hemispheres. Strong anticyclonic circulations take place in the northern middle latitudes extending from East China to Northwest Pacific. Anomalous circulations are also generated in the other extratropical regions in the both Northern and Southern Hemispheres.
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  • 72
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 40 (1989), S. 1-2 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geographie , Physik
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 73
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    Natural hazards 2 (1989), S. 329-348 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): Seismic hazard ; southern Italy ; seismotectonics
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The seismic hazard of Sannio-Matese is calculated using a new seismogenetic zoning of southern Italy of seven areas and different, azimuth-dependent, attenuation laws. Various approaches (Gumbel's first and third asymptotic distribution, Cornell) lead to similar results for the different exposure times considered (100 and 200 years) and probability levels (37 and 68%). The present seismic regulation proposed in 1980 by the Italian National Council for Researches, and based on a different approach, is, in general, confirmed by the results.
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  • 74
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    Natural hazards 2 (1989), S. 307-328 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): Seismogenetic sources ; earthquake catalogue ; intensity ; attenuation laws ; statistics ; maximum expected intensity
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The seismic hazard in the Sannio-Matese area has been worked out by a modification of the McGuire (1976) computing programme, taking into account the influence of nine potential seismic source zones. The method uses truncated-quadratic intensity-frequency distribution and azimuth-dependent intensity attenuation derived from isoseismal maps for each of the seismogenetic sources. A new modification has been introduced to take into account different decay of the intensity in the near (to VIII degree) and far (from VIII degree) field. Different assumptions about maximum possible intensities and truncation of intensity-frequency laws are used to evaluate the effects of the uncertainties on the computed hazard at high intensities. Intensities associated with different level of annual probability are computed for five test sites in the considered area. Maps displaying the expected intensity for a mean return period of 500 years (pa 0.002) are presented and compared with observed intensities.
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  • 75
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    Policy sciences 22 (1989), S. 1-25 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Politikwissenschaft , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract In this paper several examples of government contracts with private firms are examined to see how experience conforms to a principal-agent model of cost minimization via competitive bidding and how important are the many qualifications to the model. Fifteen cases of local government contracting are examined. The course of private contracting is not always smooth — as judged by the many contract disruptions observed and by the number of cities that believe they are no longer saving money by contracting and those which have resumed public production. It also seems to be the case, however, that competition generally reduces initial costs, that in many cases cost savings persist, that it is possible to stimulte competition, and that providing for continual interaction, as contrasted with simply monitoring performance, can prevent disruption.
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  • 76
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    Policy sciences 22 (1989), S. 81-91 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Politikwissenschaft , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 77
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    Policy sciences 22 (1989), S. 93-93 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Politikwissenschaft , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 78
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    Policy sciences 22 (1989), S. 51-80 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Politikwissenschaft , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract Agricultural policy making between 1960 and 1973 is examined drawing on Herbert Simon's conception of procedural rationality. The basic structure of current agricultural policy evolved during the period studied. The paper suggests that policy and policy making interact narrowing the search for a law until it achieves a combination of provisions that is an equilibrium. The computational ‘routines’ used in calculating consequences of provisions of legislation are extracted from the text of committee hearings and analyzed as a system of inequalities. The paper also discusses what satisficing means in this policy making process.
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  • 79
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    Policy sciences 22 (1989), S. 27-50 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Politikwissenschaft , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract Land use disputes are often at their center disagreements about the expectations of different parties, public and private, concerning permissible land uses and activities. Expectations are influenced by numerous factors, from broad economic and social trends to specific public planning policies and decisions. One source of land use expectations are promises issued by public planning and decisionmaking bodies. Two types of promises arise: explicit promises (e.g. statements of intention found in an officially-adopted comprehensive plan, publicly issued resolutions, etc.) and tacit promises (e.g. created by a series or pattern of public decisions, or by the clear unwillingness of the public to take actions in the past where opportunities existed to do so). It is argued that public officials and planners should be concerned with promises and that they should be given some degree of moral consideration when debating and resolving land use conflicts. Other things being equal, public planning agencies and decisionmaking bodies ought to acknowledge that the expectations of individuals are influenced by such promises and seek to respect them. Private land use expectations based on public promises are not sacred, however, as many situations arise where land use officials are confronted with conflicting moral demands. Situations where public land use promises may need to be overruled or qualified are considered. At a minimum, public land use officials have an obligation to clarify expressions of land use policy so that the formation of false private land use expectations is minimized.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 80
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    Policy sciences 22 (1989), S. 97-121 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Politikwissenschaft , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract Problem definition is a package of ideas that includes, at least implicitly, an account of the causes and consequences of undesirable circumstances and a theory about how to improve them. As such, it serves as the overture to policymaking, as an integral part of the process of policymaking, and as a policy outcome. In each of these roles it seems to exert influence on government action. Distinguishing among the roles clarifies the nature of that influence. A case study examines the transition from one problem definition to another in the domain of information collection by the federal government. The rise of the Paperwork Reduction definition illustrates the variety of ways in which problem definition has powerful consequences.
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  • 81
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    Policy sciences 22 (1989), S. 123-166 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Politikwissenschaft , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract Government budgets are premised on forecasts of revenues and expenditures. These forecasts are subject to both stochastic error and strategic manipulation. Circumstantial evidence in the budgeting literature and in the popular media suggest that government officials routinely bias the forecasts underlying budgets. The research reported here asked three primary questions: To what extent are budget forecasts systematically biased? Why? (Are fiscal and electoral variables systematically related to the magnitude and direction of the biases?) What political and ethical difference do the biases make? From the literature and an analysis of the incentives facing politicians and bureaucrats, we developed hypotheses about budget biases. These hypotheses were tested using time series data for the City of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (1941–1983); the City of San Diego, California (1950–1982); and the Pittsburgh (Pennsylvania) School District (1946–1983). In these locales over the periods examined, budgets were systematically pessimistic; revenues were underestimated and expenditures were overestimated. The fiscal and electoral factors hypothesized to account for this pessimism are, however, very mixed in their ability to explain the biases.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 82
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    Policy sciences 22 (1989), S. 167-194 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Politikwissenschaft , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract This paper assesses the influence of tax preparers on tax compliance. Using data from the Internal Revenue Service's (IRS) Taxpayer Compliance Measurement Program and an index of legal ambiguity based on Revenue Rulings, the impact of preparation mode (paid third party vs. self) on compliance at the level of the return line item is probed. The results suggest that preparers contribute to compliance by enforcing legally clear requirements but also contribute to noncompliance, as measured by the IRS, by helping taxpayers take advantage of legal ambiguity. Furthermore, an analysis of a campaign to enforce estimated tax requirements conducted by the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue suggests that tax preparers are also an important network for communicating tax agency enforcement priorities to taxpayers.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 83
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    Policy sciences 22 (1989), S. 195-195 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Politikwissenschaft , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 84
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    Policy sciences 22 (1989), S. 213-248 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Politikwissenschaft , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract This article presents an analytic model for understanding the role of decision makers in bringing about significant policy and institutional changes and in understanding how processes of agenda setting, decision making, and implementation shape the content, timing, and sustainability of reform initiatives. Central to the model is the assertion that policy elites and the policy making process are important determinants of reform. The framework indicates that circumstances surrounding issue formation, the criteria that decision makers use to select among options, and the characteristics of specific policies are analytic categories that explain a considerable amount about reform outcomes. The model is based on cases developed by participants in twelve initiatives to bring about policy and institutional change in a variety of developing countries.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 85
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    Policy sciences 22 (1989), S. 197-212 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Politikwissenschaft , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract The introduction to this special issue asks what is distinctive about public policy making in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. In field after field, some political scientists have argued for distinguishing Western polities from developing polities, whereas other have argued for inclusive treatment. The essay assesses these divergent perspectives as they relate to public policy making. On the one hand, it is clear that the systemic frameworks of policy - the institutions, participants, resources, the weight of the state relative to the society, and the capacity of the state to work its will - all vary as between developing and Western countries. The same is true for the scope of policy activity, the configuration of issues, and the actual content of policy. On the other hand, the policy process - the constraints, the ripe moments that produce innovation, the tendency for policy to have unanticipated consequences, and so on - appears to display regularities that transcend the categories of Western or Third World state. The essay goes on to explain the divergences of policy in terms of disparate access to resources, levels of economic development, and social patterns. The convergence of process is explained in terms of the deeper exigencies of human problem solving in highly structured contexts.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 86
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    Policy sciences 22 (1989), S. 325-357 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Politikwissenschaft , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract Ghana and Nigeria are in the midst of government-initiated democratization programs. This paper compares the different settings, reasons, strategies, procedures, and implementation of democratization efforts in these two countries. While Nigeria's comprehensive approach to democratic planning has enabled elite continuity, it has neither assured regime stability nor enhanced state capacities. In contrast, Ghana's plan for democratic transformation, pursued in a piecemeal fashion, has resulted in regime stability and some state consolidation, but not in democratization. In both countries, there is little doubt that the unintended consequences of each approach may prove more significant than the direct results of successful policy implementation. Thus, even if the specific design for democracy may fail, the democratic project in these West African states may nevertheless be progressing.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 87
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    Policy sciences 22 (1989), S. 359-394 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Politikwissenschaft , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract This article identifies tentative lessons about successful political management of stabilization and structural adjustment policies in developing countries. It addresses three basic questions: 1) What is the purpose of stabilization and structural adjustment policies and what specific measures are usually undertaken? 2) Who, in theory, is supposed to benefit or lose from such policies and who, in actual practice, supports or opposes them? 3) How have governments in developing countries successfully managed the supporters and opponents of adjustment policies? The article concentrates in detail on how the governments of Panama, Costa Rica and Guatemala managed the actual supporters and opponents of these policies between 1982 and 1987, based on interviews with policy makers, official documents and content analysis of media sources, with the aim of determining what measures were implemented, who protested or supported them, and what the government did to build support or minimize opposition. The lessons from these three experiences are tied to the more general literature on successful political management of stabilization and structural adjustment.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 88
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    Policy sciences 22 (1989), S. 249-287 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Politikwissenschaft , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract Considering public policy as both a dependent and an independent variable, this article undertakes a systematic assessment of the sources and systemic consequences of policy. It begins with a statement of contrasting theories of the sources of policy. One strand of comparative theory emphasizes national cultures and elite beliefs as the main sources of policy; another stresses the cross-national imperatives of particular policy programs, of international diffusion, and of common policy processes. Drawing on longitudinal data on an array of ethnic policies in Malaysia, the study highlights the limits of cultural-determinist theories of policy. It shows that elite beliefs change over time, often creating layers of policy based on varying premises; that one set of beliefs can overcome another, inconsistent set; that critical events can alter the balance of authoritative beliefs; and that, where beliefs are in conflict, organized interests have room for maneuver. Moreover, the interaction of a mix of operative beliefs can produce outcomes very much at variance with what policymakers wish or anticipate. Finally, on the systemic effects of policy, the study shows that interests created by earlier policy can be decisive actors in the shaping of later policy. Policy itself can change the entire structure of the political system - an outcome rather clearly demonstrated in the case of Malaysia.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 89
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    Policy sciences 22 (1989), S. 289-323 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Politikwissenschaft , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract Over the last ten years, policy change in the third world has become a matter of considerable intellectual and practical importance. For the theoretically inclined, how one explains changes in the behavior of the state is the main issue. Both Marxian and liberal orthodoxies had a tendency to ‘read off’ state behavior from the power relationships at the level of the society, though differing in the way they conceptualized power. The return of institutional and state-centric explanations over the last decade has attempted to reverse this bias by looking more closely at the power struggles within the state institutions. For the practically inclined, the powerful intellectual rationale behind so many policy recommendations has often been puzzlingly lost in the maze of politics. What ‘interests’ impede the implementation of good ‘ideas,’ what ‘institutions’ block ‘getting policies right’ - these are some of the key questions on the agenda of international development institutions. Responding to these varied concerns, this paper analyzes a particularly successful case of policy change. While most of third world was still experimenting with land reforms and cooperatives as the ways to develop agriculture, India in the mid-1960s switched to producer price incentives and investments in new technology, a change that is widely believed to have turned India from a food-deficit to a food-surplus country. The focus is on how ideas, interests and institutions interacted to produce the change.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 90
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    Policy sciences 22 (1989), S. 395-413 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Politikwissenschaft , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract During the debt crisis of the 1980s, new democratic governments in Argentina and Brazil experimented with heterodox approaches to economic stabilization, whereas Mexico's dominant party regime adopted a far more orthodox line of adjustment. None of these approaches had led to a sustained recovery by the end of the decade. Difference in policy choices are attributable to goals and beliefs of top decisionmaking officials and to the way the institutional features of their respective political regimes structured time horizons and vulnerability to domestic distributive pressures. Converging economic outcomes are attributable to underlying structural problems that cut across these distinctions: political constraints on the management of fiscal deficits, and international power asymmetries impeding significant reductions in the external debt burden.
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  • 91
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    Policy sciences 22 (1989), S. 415-436 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Politikwissenschaft , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract The official language policy of India is described as a 3 ± 1 language outcome. The central question that guides this paper is to explain why, when Congress leaders attempted to provide for India a single indigenous language for official communication, have they suffered more opposition than have rulers of states that consolidated in earlier centuries? Standard explanations for the different outcome, relying on special attributes of Indian culture and history, are found to be inadequate. A game theoretic analysis of political strategy helps to highlight two variables that best explain India's language outcome: the world historical time of state consolidation; and the nature of politician/bureaucrat relations for postcolonial states.
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  • 92
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    Policy sciences 22 (1989), S. 467-467 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Politikwissenschaft , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 93
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    Policy sciences 22 (1989), S. 437-461 
    ISSN: 1573-0891
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Politikwissenschaft , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract The paper analyzes the interaction between inflows of foreign aid and the character of the economic policies pursued by the Sri Lankan government between 1977 and 1983. Aid did not support the policies of liberalization and balanced public investment that were preferred by donors. Rather it enabled the Sri Lankan government to push forward with the Mahaweli irrigation scheme on a scale that worked against both liberalization and other components of public investment. The process that led to the adoption and funding of the Mahaweli scheme and continued support for that scheme even after its impact on the overall economic program had become apparent is examined in detail, with particular emphasis on the decisions and behavior of both the Sri Lankan government and of aid donors.
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  • 94
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    Natural hazards 2 (1989), S. 387-390 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 95
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    Natural hazards 2 (1989), S. 391-394 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 96
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    Natural hazards 2 (1989), S. 363-385 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): Seismic source ; attenuation relationship ; seismic hazard ; Sannio-Matese
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract The assessment of seismic hazard at five selected sites in the Sannio-Matese region is based on the computer program SRAMSC. Owing to the extensive historical data base for the output parameter, the MSK intensiy is chosen. The seismicity model is made up of five narrow area seismic sources. Circular or elliptical macroseismic fields are assigned to individual sources. A generalized Kövesligethy equation is used for this purpose as the attenuation relationship. The study reveals similar and a rather high hazard at the sites at Benevento, Boiano, and Melfi, which are located in the zone of highest seismic activity. At the Pomigliano and Lucera sites, the assessed hazard is much lower.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 97
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    Natural hazards 2 (1989), S. 349-362 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): TERESA project ; seismic hazard assessment ; Belgium ; The Netherlands ; NW Germany ; catalogue analysis ; seismotectonic zones ; zone parameters ; uncertainties
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract From the earthquake catalogue of the region of interest 2–8°E, 49–52°N, only events with intensity 〉 3 are considered. The fore/aftershocks and the induced seismicity are removed. The completeness and other properties of the remaining data set are investigated. The seismic data, as well as the geological, tectonic, and other geophysical data of the area are used for the determination of the seismotectonic zones. For each zone, the cumulative intensity-frequency relation (taking into account the completeness of the catalogue), the attenuation depending on the direction, the upper bound of intensity and the average depth are calculated. When the seismic activity is changing within a zone, this zone is divided into subzones with an almost constant activity and a b value equal to the value of the whole zone. When necessary for each subzone, a different attenuation coefficient can be used, to take into account more regional effects. Then the seismic hazard is assessed with the modified McGuire program. Annual probability versus intensity for several sites and hazard intensity and probability maps are calculated. Finally, an error discussion of the whole procedure for one test site is given.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 98
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    Natural hazards 2 (1989), S. 395-395 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 99
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    Natural hazards 2 (1989), S. 397-397 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 100
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    Natural hazards 2 (1989), S. 399-404 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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