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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations  (24)
  • Climate change  (19)
  • American Geophysical Union  (42)
  • American Institute of Physics
  • American Physical Society
  • Birkhauser
Collection
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-05-25
    Description: The largest events of the 1997 Umbria-Marche sesimic sequence were the two September 26 earthquakes of Mw=5.7 (00:33 GMT) and Mw=6.0 (09:40 GMT), which caused severe damage and ground cracks in a wide area around the epicenters. We created an ERS-SAR differenrtial interferogram, where nine fringes are visible in and around the Colfiorito basin, corresponding to 25 cm of coseismic surface dispalacements. GPS data show a maximum horizontal displacement...
    Description: Published
    Description: 883-886
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Colfiorito, SAR, GPS ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-01-05
    Description: Destructive earthquakes are rare in France yet pose a sizable seismic hazard, especially when critical infrastructures are concerned. Only a few destructive events have occurred within the instrumental period, the most important being the 11 June 1909, Lambesc (Provence) earthquake. With a magnitude estimated at 6.2 [Rothé, 1942], the event was recorded by 30 observatories and produced intensity IX effects in the epicentral area, ~30 km north of Marseille. We collected 30 seismograms, leveling data and earthquake intensities to assess the magnitude and possibly the focal mechanism of this event. Following this multidisciplinary approach, we propose a source model where all relevant parameters are constrained by at least two of the input datasets. Our reappraisal of the seismological data yielded Mw 5.8-6.1 (6.0 preferred) and Ms 6.0, consistent with the magnitude from intensity data (Me 5.8) and with constraints derived from modeling of coseismic elevation changes. Hence, we found the Lambesc earthquake to have been somewhat smaller than previously reported. Our datasets also constrain the geometry and kinematics of faulting, suggesting that the earthquake was generated by reverse-right lateral slip on a WNW-striking, steeply north-dipping fault beneath the western part of the Trévaresse fold. This result suggests that the fold, located in front of the Lubéron thrust, plays a significant role in the region’s recent tectonic evolution. The sense of slip obtained for the 1909 rupture also agrees with the regional stress field obtained from earthquake focal mechanisms and microtectonic data as well as recent GPS data.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2454
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Lambesc earthquake ; France ; historical seismograms ; displacement modeling ; macroseismic data ; geodetic data ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.05. Historical seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.09. Waves and wave analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2020-11-25
    Description: We present crustal deformation results from a geodetic experiment (Retreating-Trench, Extension, and Accretion Tectonics (RETREAT)) focused on the northern Apennines orogen in Italy. The experiment centers on 33 benchmarks measured with GPS annually or more frequently between 2003 and 2007, supplemented by data from an additional older set of 6 campaign observations from stations in northern Croatia, and 187 continuous GPS stations within and around northern Italy. In an attempt to achieve the best possible estimates for rates and their uncertainties, we estimate and filter common mode signals and noise components using the continuous stations and apply these corrections to the entire data set, including the more temporally limited campaign time series. The filtered coordinate time series data are used to estimate site velocity. We also estimate spatially variable seasonal site motions for stations with sufficient data. The RMS scatter of residual time series are generally near 1 mm and 4 mm, horizontal and vertical, respectively, for continuous and most of the new campaign stations, but scatter is slightly higher for some of the older campaign data. Velocity uncertainties are below 1 mm/yr for all but one of the stations. Maximum rates of site motion within the orogen exceed 3 mm/yr (directed NE) relative to stable Eurasia. This motion is accommodated by extension within the southwestern and central portions of the orogen, and shortening across the foreland thrust belt to the northeast of the range. The data set is consistent with contemporaneous extension and shortening at nearly equal rates. The northern Apennines block moves northeast faster than the Northern Adria microplate. Convergence between the Northern Apennines block and the Northern Adria microplate is accommodated across a narrow zone that coincides with the northeastern Apennines range front. Extension occurs directly above an intact vertically dipping slab inferred by previous authors from seismic tomography. The observed crustal deformation is consistent with a buried dislocation model for crustal faulting, but associations between crustal motion and seismically imaged mantle structure may also provide new insights on mantle dynamics.
    Description: Published
    Description: B04408
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: GPS, northern Apennines, retreat, Italy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2021-01-04
    Description: We present a neotectonic model of ongoing lithosphere deformation and a corresponding estimate of long-term shallow seismicity across the Africa-Eurasia plate boundary, including the eastern Atlantic, Mediterranean region, and continental Europe. GPS and stress data are absent or inadequate for the part of the study area covered by water. Thus, we opt for a dynamic model based on the stress-equilibrium equation; this approach allows us to estimate the long-term behavior of the lithosphere (given certain assumptions about its structure and physics) for both land and sea areas. We first update the existing plate model by adding five quasi-rigid plates (the Ionian Sea, Adria, Northern Greece, Central Greece, and Marmara) to constrain the deformation pattern of the study area. We use the most recent datasets to estimate the lithospheric structure. The models are evaluated in comparison with updated datasets of geodetic velocities and the most compressive horizontal principal stress azimuths. We find that the side and basal strengths drive the present-day motion of the Adria and Aegean Sea plates, whereas lithostatic pressure plays a key role in driving Anatolia. These findings provide new insights into the neotectonics of the greater Mediterranean region. Finally, the preferred model is used to estimate long-term shallow seismicity, which we retrospectively test against historical seismicity. As an alternative to reliance on incomplete geologic data or historical seismic catalogs, these neotectonic models help to forecast long-term seismicity, although requiring additional tuning before seismicity rates are used for seismic hazard purposes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 5311–5342
    Description: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Tectonics ; Earthquake rates ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.03. Heat flow ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.06. Rheology, friction, and structure of fault zones ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.01. Continents ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2021-04-07
    Description: Integrating geodetic, seismic, and petrological data for a recent eruptive episode at Mount Etna has enabled us to define the history of magma storage and transfer within the multilevel structure of the volcano, providing spatial and temporal constraints for magma movements before the eruption. Geodetic data related to the July–August 2014 activity provide evidence of a magma reservoir at ~4 km below sea level. This reservoir pressurized from late March 2014 and fed magmas that were then erupted from vents on the lower eastern flank of North-East Crater (NEC) and at New South-East Crater (NSEC) summit crater during the July eruptive activity. Magma drainage caused its depressurization since mid-July. Textural and microanalytical data obtained from plagioclase crystals indicate similar disequilibrium textures and compositions at the cores in lavas erupted at the base of NEC and NSEC, suggesting comparable deep histories of evolution and ascent. Conversely, the compositional differences observed at the crystal rims have been associated to distinct degassing styles during storage in a shallow magma reservoir. Seismic data have constrained depth for a shallow part of the plumbing system at 1–2 km above sea level. Timescales of magma storage and transfer have also been calculated through diffusion modeling of zoning in olivine crystals of the two systems. Our data reveal a common deep history of magmas from the two systems, which is consistent with a recharging phase by more mafic magma between late March and early June 2014. Later, the magma continued its crystallization under distinct chemical and physical conditions at shallower levels.
    Description: The petrological part of this study was supported by the FIR 2014 research grant to Marco Viccaro from the University of Catania (Italy), grant number 2F119B, title of the project “Dynamics of evolution, ascent and emplacement of basic magmas: case-studies from eruptive manifestations of Eastern Sicily”.
    Description: Published
    Description: 5659–5678
    Description: 2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi
    Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Petrology ; eruption ; GPS ; volcano seismology ; Etna ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.07. Rock geochemistry ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The active tectonics at the front of the Southern Apennines and in the Adriatic foreland is characterized by E-W striking, right-lateral seismogenic faults, interpreted as reactivated inherited discontinuities. The best studied among these is the Molise-Gondola shear zone (MGsz). The interaction of these shear zones with the Apennines chain is not yet clear. To address this open question we developed a set of scaled analogue experiments, aimed at analyzing: 1) how dextral strike-slip motion along a pre-existing zone of weakness within the foreland propagates toward the surface and affects the orogenic wedge; 2) the propagation of deformation as a function of displacement; 3) any insights on the active tectonics of Southern Italy. Our results stress the primary role played by these inherited structures when reactivated, and confirm that regional E-W dextral shear zones are a plausible way of explaining the seismotectonic setting of the external areas of the Southern Apennines.
    Description: INGV, Università degli Studi di Pavia
    Description: Published
    Description: 21
    Description: open
    Keywords: Active strike-slip fault ; sandbox model ; southern Italy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.02. Geological and geophysical evidences of deep processes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We report on new paleomagnetic and anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS) data from Plio-Pleistocene sedimentary units from Corinth and Megara basins (Peloponnesus, Greece). Paleomagnetic results show that Megara basin has undergone vertical axis CW rotation since the Pliocene, while Corinth has rotated CCW during the same period of time. These results indicate that the overall deformation in central Greece has been achieved by complex interactions of mostly rigid, rotating, fault bounded crustal blocks. The comparison of paleomagnetic results and existing GPS data shows that the boundaries of the rigid blocks in central Greece have changed over time, with faulting migrating into the hanging walls, sometimes changing in orientation. The Megara basin belonged to the Beotia-Locris block in the past but has now been incorporated into the Peloponnesus block, possibly because the faulting in the Gulf of Corinth has propagated both north and east. Paleomagnetic and GPS data from Megara and Corinth basins have significant implications for the deformation style of the continental lithosphere. In areas of distributed deformation the continental lithosphere behaves instantaneously like a small number of rigid blocks with well-defined boundaries. This means that these boundaries could be detected with only few years of observations with GPS. However, on a larger time interval the block boundaries change with time as the active fault moves. Paleomagnetic studies distinguishing differential rotational domains provide a useful tool to map how block boundaries change with time.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1-15
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Paleomagnetism ; Greece, block rotations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this paper we present the first geochemical data set regarding long-term monitoring of dissolved gases in thermal waters from a seismic area. Three sites in Umbria (Central Apennines, Italy) were studied both for the chemical and for the helium isotopic composition of the dissolved gases. Data were collected during and after the seismic crisis that struck the region in 1997â 1998. The chemical composition of the dissolved gases revealed that a CO2-rich gas phase was always mixed with an atmospheric-derived component dominated by N2. A normal faulting marked the beginning of the seismic activity enhancing the release of CO2 on a regional scale. Variations in both the chemical and isotopic compositions of the dissolved gases were also observed as preseismic, synseismic, and postseismic phenomena related to the seismic shock of March 1998. Those geochemical modifications were interpreted as being the consequence of a drop in the CO2 degassing rate, in good agreement with the compressive focal mechanism of that seismic event. Furthermore, this interpretation was also consistent with the geologic and tectonic setting of the study area and induced us to postulate that changes in the local rock permeability, due to crustal deformations (i.e., coseismic deformation and postseismic release), were responsible for the geochemical modifications observed. On the basis of the foregoing, we have concluded that the geochemistry of dissolved gases in groundwaters represents a useful tool for the investigation of the relationships between circulating fluids and seismic activity.
    Description: Published
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: dissolved gases ; geochemistry ; seismic areas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.02. Geological and geophysical evidences of deep processes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.01. Geochemical data ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.04. Hydrogeological data
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We integrate geologic, structural, leveling and Differential SAR Interferometry data to show that Vesuvius began to spread onto its sedimentary substratum about 3,600 years ago. Moreover, we model the detected deformation with a solution of the lubrication approximation of the Navier-Stokes equations to show that spreading may continue for about 7,200 years more. Correlation of volcanic spreading with phases of the eruptive activity suggests that Plinian eruptions, which are thought to pose the major hazard, are less likely to occur in the near future.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1-4
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Vesuvius ; volcanic activity ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.08. Theory and Models
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: A wide set of dynamics phenomena (i.e., geodynamics, Post Glacial Rebound, seismicity and volcanic activity) can produce time gravity changes, which spectrum varies from short (1… 10 s) to long (more than 1 year) periods. The amplitude of the gravity variations is generally in the order of 10 8…10 9 g, consequently their detection requires instruments with high sensitivity and stability: then, high quality experimental data. Spring and superconducting gravimeters are intensively used with this target and they are frequently jointed with tiltmeters recording stations in order to measure the elastogravitational perturbation of the Earth. The far-field effects produced by large earthquakes on records collected by spring gravimeters and tiltmeters are investigated here. Gravity and tilt records were analyzed on time windows spanning the occurrence of large worldwide earthquakes; the gravity records have been collected on two stations approximately 600 km distant. The background noise level at the stations was characterized, in each season, in order to detect a possible seasonal dependence and the presence of spectral components which could hide or mask other geophysical signals, such as, for instance, the highest mode of the Seismic Free Oscillation (SFO) of the Earth. Some spectral components (6.5’; 8’; 9’; 14’, 20’, 51’) have been detected in gravity and tilt records on the occasion of large earthquakes and the effect of the SFO has been hypothesized. A quite different spectral content of the EW and NS tiltmeter components has been detected and interpreted as a consequence of the radiation pattern of the disturbances due to the earthquakes. Through the analysis of the instrumental sensitivity, instrumental effects have been detected for gravity meters at very low frequency.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1379–1397
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Gravimeters ; seismic free oscillation ; earthquakes ; tiltmeters ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.05. Gravity variations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.06. Measurements and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.09. Instruments and techniques
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  • 11
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    American Geophysical Union
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: We investigate crustal deformation along the Eurasia-Nubia plate boundary in Calabria and Sicily revealed by the GPS velocity field obtained by the combination of continuous site velocities with previous results from episodic campaigns. We recognize two distinct crustal domains characterized by different motions and styles of deformation. Convergence in Sicily is taken up by crustal shortening along the former Tyrrhenian back arc passive margin, in agreement with seismological data and geological evidence of recent cessation of deformation along the Plio-Pleistocene subduction front. The analysis of the GPS data and the consistency between earthquake slip vectors and convergence direction suggest that Eu-Nu convergence in Sicily does not require intermediate crustal blocks. Significant Eurasia ( 3 mm/yr to NNE) and Nubia-fixed ( 5 mm/yr to ESE) residual velocities in Calabria suggest instead the presence of an intermediate crustal block which can be interpreted as a forearc sliver or as an independent Ionian block. According to the first hypothesis, subduction is still active in the Ionian wedge, although we find no evidence for active back arc spreading in the Tyrrhenian Sea. The N115 E oriented Sicily-Calabria GPS relative motion is consistent with the extension observed during the 1908 Mw 7.1 Messina earthquake. We suggest that up to 3 mm/yr ( 80%) of this estimated relative motion between Sicily and the Calabrian Arc may be taken up in the Messina Straits.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1-16
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: GPS ; Calabria, Sicily, Active tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We present the first GPS estimate of crustal extension in the central Apennines (Italy) through the analysis of the deformation of a sub-network of the National GPS Geodetic network IGM95 in the interval 1994–1999. The selected sub-network spans the entire active deformation belt perpendicularly to its axis and allows the evaluation of (1) the total extension rate absorbed in this sector of the Apennines and (2) the seismogenic potential of the normal faults active in the Late Pleistocene-Holocene interval within the network. Results of this reoccupation are consistent with an extensional strain rate of 0.18×10−6 yr−1 concentrated in an area of about 35 km width, giving an average extension rate of 6±2 mm/yr across the central Apennines. The pattern of active deformation suggests active elastic strain accumulation on the westernmost of the two fault systems active in the Late Pleistocene-Holocene interval and may also suggest the presence of another active fault system not recognized so far.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2121-2124
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: GPS ; Apennines, Active extension ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We study the coseismic and postseismic displacements related with the 1997 Umbria-Marche earthquake sequence by means of leveling lines along a deformed aqueduct located in the epicentral area. Comparing the 1960 and 10/1997 measurements we obtain 0.49 0.10 m of coseismic displacement distributed along 3 km across the normal fault zone. Modeling of the coseismic surface dislocation is obtained from a combination of low angle (38°) faults at depth and high angle (80°) upper fault branches. The best fit model indicates that the upper branches stop at 0.4 km below the ground surface and have 60% of slip with respect to the lower faults. The postseismic displacement measured during 1998 is 0.18 m and represents 36% of the apparent coseismic deformation. Moderate earthquakes in the Apennines and related surface deformation may thus result from curved faults that reflect the brittle-elastic properties of the uppermost crustal structures.
    Description: Data collection was made while both authors were at Istituto di Ricerca per la Tettonica Recente – CNR (GNDT Project), Roma, Italy. M. Copparoni (ASM, Foligno) and M. Raponi and S. Pacico (Studio Topografico s.n.c., Foligno) provided data about aqueduct and leveling lines. Analysis of data and modeling were done while RB was visiting EOST-IPG, Strasbourg, France. Preparation of the paper benefited from discussion with R. Armijo, S. Barba, P. Gomez and G. Valensise. A. Amato and an anonymous reviewer are thanked for their constructive remarks.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2695–2698
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Coseismic displacement ; postseismic displacement ; earthquake fault ; Colfiorito, Italy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.06. Surveys, measurements, and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: To investigate the kinematics of the Adriatic region we integrate continuous and episodic GPS measurements and ${M_w} 〉 4.5$ earthquake slip vectors selected from the Regional Centroid Moment Tensor (RCMT) catalogue. Coherent motion of GPS sites in the Po Valley, in Apulia and in the Hyblean Plateau allows us to estimate geodetically constrained angular velocities for these regions. The predictions of the GPS-inferred angular velocities are compared with the earthquake slip vectors, showing that the seismically-expressed deformation at the microplate boundaries is consistent with the observed geodetic motion. The remarkable consistency between geodetic, seismological and geological evidence of active tectonics, suggests that active deformation in the Central Adriatic is controlled by the relative motion between the Adria and Apulia microplates. The microplates angular rotation rates are then compared with the rotation rates calculated with a simple block model supporting the hypotheses (1) that Apulia forms a single microplate with the Ionian Sea and possibly with the Hyblean region and (2) that Adria and Apulia rotate in such a way as to accommodate the Eurasia-Nubia relative motion. We suggest that the present-day microplate configuration follows a recent fragmentation of the Adriatic promontory that during the Neogene rigidly transferred the Africa motion to the orogenic belts that now surround the Adriatic region.
    Description: Published
    Description: B12413
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Adria ; GPS ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We present an improved rendition of the geodetic velocity and strain fields in Sicily and southern Calabria obtained through the analysis of 18 years of GPS observations from continuous and survey station networks. The dense spatial coverage of geodetic data provides precise quantitative estimates of previously established first-order active kinematic features, including: i) a narrow east-west-elongated belt of contraction (~1-1.5 mm/yr) extending offshore northern Sicily from Ustica to Stromboli across the Aeolian Islands; ii) a narrow east-west-trending contractional belt located along the northern rim of the Hyblean Plateau in southern Sicily, with shortening at up to 4.4 mm/yr; iii) right motion (~3.6 mm/yr) on the Aeolian-Tindari-Letojanni fault (ATLF) system, a main shear zone extending from the Aeolian Islands to the Ionian coast of Sicily, with significant transpression and transtension partitioned between discrete sectors of the fault; iv) transtension (~1 mm/yr) across the Sicily Channel between Sicily and North Africa. We use geodetic observations coupled to geological constraints to better elucidate the interplay of crustal blocks revealed in the investigated area. In particular, we focus on the ATLF, which forms the primary boundary between the Sicilian and Calabrian blocks. The ATLF juxtaposes north-south contraction between Sicily and the Tyrrhenian block with northwest-southeast extension in north-eastern Sicily and Calabria. Contraction between Sicily and Tyrrhenian blocks probably arises from the main Europe-Nubia convergence, although Sicily has a component of lateral motion away from Nubia. We found that convergence is not restricted to the northern offshore, as commonly believed, but is widely accommodated between the frontal belt and the northern rim of the Hyblean foreland in southern Sicily. Geodetic data also indicate that active right shear on the ATLF occurs to the southeast of the mapped fault array in northern Sicily, suggesting the fault cuts through till the Ionian coast of the island. The small geodetic divergence between the Hyblean and Apulian blocks rimming on both sides the Calabria block and subjacent Ionian slab, coupled with marine geophysical evidences in the Ionian Sea lends credit to the proposed deep root of the ATLF and to a fragmentation of the Ionian domain.
    Description: Published
    Description: B07401
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Calabro Peloritan Arc ; Geodesy ; plate tectonic ; Strain-rate ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Here we describe the horizontal velocities of continuous GPS stations in the Calabrian Arc (CA) and surrounding regions. The appropriate reference frame to evaluate the crustal motion of the CA is considered by assessing the internal deformation and the relative motion of the crustal blocks in the foreland of the Apennines␣Ionian␣Maghrebides subduction system. We propose that the motion of CA rela- tive to the subducting Ionian lower plate is most properly assessed by minimizing the GPS velocities in Apulia. In this reference frame the significant ␣2 mm/yr southeast- ward motion of the stations on the Ionian flank of the CA shows that the arc is still moving towards the trench in agreement with the observations of active shortening in the Ioanian wedge. This southeastward migration is associated to 1.4 ± 0.3 mm/yr E␣W extension of the forearc in northern Calabria, comparable with the seismic strain averaged in the last 500 years. The limited subaerial exposure decreases the resolution on locking of the subduction interface but the distribution and direction of crustal extension along the CA impose important constraints on geodynamic interpreta- tions of the area.
    Description: Published
    Description: L17304
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Calabrian Arc ; GPS ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Volcanic rift zones, characterized by repeated dike emplacements, are expected to delimit the upper portion of unstable flanks at basaltic edifices. We use nearly two decades of InSAR observations excluding wintertime acquisitions, to analyze the relationships between rift zones, dike emplacement and flank instability at Etna. The results highlight a general eastward shift of the volcano summit, including the northeast and south rifts. This steadystate eastward movement (1-2 cm/yr) is interrupted or even reversed during transient dike injections. Detailed analysis of the northeast rift shows that only during phases of dike injection, as in 2002, does the rift transiently becomes the upper border of the unstable flank. The flank's steady-state eastward movement is inferred to result from the interplay between magmatic activity, asymmetric topographic unbuttressing, and east-dipping detachment geometry at its base. This study documents the first evidence of steady-state volcano rift instability interrupted by transient dike injection at basaltic edifices.
    Description: Partially funded by INGV and the Italian DPC (DPC-INGV project V4 “Flank”). ERS and ENVISAT SAR data were provided by ESA through the Cat-1 project no. 4532 and the GEO Supersite initiative. The DEM was obtained from the SRTM archive. ERS-1/2 orbits are courtesy of the TU-Delft, The Netherlands. SAR data processing has been done at IREACNR, partially carried out under contract “Volcanic Risk System (SRV)” funded by the Italian Space Agency (ASI).
    Description: Published
    Description: L20311
    Description: 1.3. TTC - Sorveglianza geodetica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: 1.10. TTC - Telerilevamento
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: flank instability ; rift zones ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.06. Measurements and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.09. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.06. Rheology, friction, and structure of fault zones ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.99. General or miscellaneous
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The inversion of multitemporal DInSAR and GPS measurements unravels the coseismic and postseismic (afterslip) slip distributions associated with the 2009 MW 6.3 L’Aquila earthquake and provides insights into the rheological properties and long-term behavior of the responsible structure, the Paganica fault. Well-resolved patches of high postseismic slip (10–20 cm) appear to surround the main coseismic patch (maximum slip ≈1 m) through the entire seismogenic layer above the hypocenter without any obvious depth-dependent control. Time series of postseismic displacement are well reproduced by an exponential function with best-fit decay constants in the range of 20–40 days. A sudden discontinuity in the evolution of released postseismic moment at ≈130 days after the main shock does not correlate with independent seismological and geodetic data and is attributed to residual noise in the InSAR time series. The data are unable to resolve migration of afterslip along the fault probably because of the time interval (six days) between the main shock and the first radar acquisition. Surface fractures observed along the Paganica fault follow the steepest gradients of postseismic line-of-sight satellite displacements and are consistent with a sudden and delayed failure of the shallow layer in response to upward tapering of slip. The occurrence of afterslip at various levels through the entire seismogenic layer argues against exclusive depth-dependent variations of frictional properties on the fault, supporting the hypothesis of significant horizontal frictional heterogeneities and/or geometrical complexities. We support the hypothesis that such heterogeneities and complexities may be at the origin of the long-term variable behavior suggested by the paleoseismological studies. Rupture of fault patches with dimensions similar to that activated in 2009 appears to have a ≈500 year recurrence time interval documented by paleoseismic and historical studies. In addition to that, paleoseismological evidence of large (〉0.5 m) coseismic offsets seems to require seismic events, recurring every 1000–2000 years, characterized by (1) multisegment linkage, (2) surface ruptures larger than in 2009, and (3) complete failure of the 2009 coseismic and postseismic patches.
    Description: Published
    Description: B02402
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Afterslip ; L'Aquila ; Apennines ; postseismic ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We analyze the kinematic and crustal deformations of Mt. Etna from 2003 to 2008 as imaged by the Mt. Etna continuous GPS (CGPS) network (Etna@net). Through a careful analysis of GPS time series, six coherent phases of crustal deformations have been identified, three inflation phases and three deflation phases, superimposed on a major inflation of the volcanic edifice since 2001. The inversions of GPS velocities have enabled: 1) a better understanding of the evolution of the volcanic sources acting beneath the volcano; 2) analysis of the strain rate patterns; and 3) a delineation of potential coupling between volcanic sources and the observed ground deformations. The modelling of the pressure sources has shown a separation between inflation and deflation sources. The deflation sources show an upward migration, from 5.5 toward 2.0 km (b.s.l.), while the inflation sources are located within 5.5 and 4.0 km (b.s.l.). Our results indicate that the kinematic and ground deformations of the mid-upper eastern flank are driven by the interplay between the effect of the magmatic sources and a south-eastward motion. Furthermore, clockwise rotations have been detected that prevailed over the eastern motion of the flank during the inflation phase preceding the 2004-2005 and 2006 eruptions. Finally, the accordance between the higher geodetic shear strain rates and the area with the highest seismic energy release shows that measured geodetic shear strain rates can provide useful information on the potential occurrence of seismic activity.
    Description: Osservatorio Etneo, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia,Catania, Italy. Department of Geosciences, State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, New York, USA.
    Description: Published
    Description: B07208
    Description: 1.3. TTC - Sorveglianza geodetica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Mt. Etna ground deformations ; Volcano monitoring ; Strain rate analysis ; Volcanic source modelling ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Here I compare estimates of tectonic strain rates from dense Global Positioning System measurements with the seismicity released in the last ~500 years in the Apennines (Italy). The rates of seismic moment accumulation from geodesy and of historical seismic release by earthquakes agree within the uncertainties, ruling out significant aseismic deformation. Within the considered 400 km long section of the Apennines, this balance yields an average recurrence interval of 30–75 years for MW≥6.5 events without requiring a future earthquake larger than those observed historically (MW~7). A minimum estimate of unreleased strain allows MW≥6.5 and MW≥6.9 events to be released in ~35% and ~10% of the central-southern Apennines, respectively. The definition of the seismic potential for smaller events is more uncertain, and their occurrence remains a significant threat throughout the Apennines.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1155–1162
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Crustal deformation ; Earthquakes ; GPS ; Apennines ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The interpretation of dynamic processes that occur in volcanic calderas is not simple. The ground deformations and the local seismicity, which in other volcanic contexts are usually regarded as precursors to eruption, in caldera environment in many cases are not followed by any eruption. We formulate a general hypothesis that can explain these behaviors. Our hypothesis is that the intrusion of a sill can be responsible for the dynamics observed during unrest at calderas. In order to investigate the reliability of this hypothesis, we developed a dynamic model of sill intrusion in a shallow volcanic environment. In our model, the sill, fed by a deeper magma reservoir, intrudes below a horizontal elastic plate, representing the overlying rocks, and expands with axisymmetric geometry. The model is based on the numerical solution of the equation for the elastic plate, coupled with a Navier-Stokes equation for simulating the dynamics of the sill intrusion. We performed a number of simulations, with the objective of showing the main features of the model. In the experiments, when the feeding process stops, the vertical movement reverses its trend and the area of maximum uplift undergoes subsidence. Under certain conditions the subsidence can occur even during the intrusion of the sill. The stress field produced by the intrusion is mainly concentrated in a circular zone that follows the sill intrusion front. The features predicted by the model are consistent with many observations carried out on different calderas as reported in the scientific literature.
    Description: Published
    Description: 3986–4000
    Description: 2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi
    Description: 3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
    Description: 5V. Sorveglianza vulcanica ed emergenze
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: sill intrusion ; caldera ; volcano geodesy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 05. General::05.05. Mathematical geophysics::05.05.99. General or miscellaneous
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We use 2.5 to 14 years long position time series from 〉800 continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) stations to study vertical deformation rates in the Euro-Mediterranean region. We estimate and remove common mode errors in position time series using a principal component analysis, obtaining a significant gain in the signal-to-noise ratio of the displacements data. Following the results of a maximum likelihood estimation analysis, which gives a mean spectral index ~ 0.7, we adopt a power law + white noise stochastic model in estimating the final vertical rates and find 95% of the velocities within ±2 mm/yr, with uncertainties from filtered time series ~40% smaller than from the unfiltered ones. We highlight the presence of statistically significant velocity gradients where the stations density is higher. We find undulations of the vertical velocity field at different spatial scales both in tectonically active regions, like eastern Alps, Apennines, and eastern Mediterranean, and in regions characterized by a low or negligible tectonic activity, like central Iberia and western Alps. A correlation between smooth vertical velocities and topographic features is apparent in many sectors of the study area. Glacial isostatic adjustment and weathering processes do not completely explain the measured rates, and a combination of active tectonics and deep-seated geodynamic processes must be invoked. Excluding areas where localized processes are likely, or where subduction processes may be active, mantle dynamics is the most likely process, but regional mantle modeling is required for a better understanding.
    Description: Published
    Description: 6003–6024
    Description: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 1R. Reti di monitoraggio e Osservazioni
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: GPS ; Geodynamics ; Mediterranean ; Vertical deformation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.06. Measurements and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.01. Continents ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.06. Subduction related processes
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We report a 25 year-long data set (1990–2014) of combined continuous tilt and GPS vertical displacement series recorded at Etna volcano. To our knowledge, this is the first time that such a data set on an active volcano has been presented. We show the coherence of the two series, which help draw new insights on how the volcano, characterized by frequent flank eruptions, works in the long-term (tens of years). This data set provides evidence that after the 1992–1993 flank eruption (the biggest in the last three centuries) and the following major recharging phase (1994–2001), all the ensuing eruptions fall within a single long-term reequilibrium phase (2001–2014).
    Description: Published
    Description: 10222–10229
    Description: 1V. Storia e struttura dei sistemi vulcanici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: tilt ; gps ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright (2010) American Geophysical Union
    Description: We investigate the role of the Africa-Eurasia convergence in the recent tectonic evolution of the central Mediterranean. To this end we focused on two sectors of the Adriatic-Hyblean foreland of the Apennine-Maghrebian chain as they allow tectonic evidence for relative plate motions to be analyzed aside from the masking effect of other more local tectonic phenomena (e.g., subduction, chain building, etc.). We present a thorough review of data and interpretations on two major shear zones cutting these foreland sectors: the E-W Molise-Gondola in central Adriatic and the N-S Vizzini-Scicli in southern Sicily. The selected foreland areas exhibit remarkable similarities, including an unexpectedly high level of seismicity and the presence of the investigated shear zones since the Mesozoic. We analyze the tectonic framework, active tectonics, and seismicity of each of the foreland areas, highlighting the evolution of the tectonic understanding. In both areas, we find that current strains at midcrustal levels seem to respond to the same far-field force oriented NNW-SSE to NW-SE, similar to the orientation of the Africa-Eurasia convergence. We conclude that this convergence plays a primary role in the seismotectonics of the central Mediterranean and is partly accommodated by the reactivation of large Mesozoic shear zones.
    Description: The work has been funded by project “Sviluppo Nuove Tecnologie per la Protezione e Difesa del Territorio dai Rischi Naturali,” by the Italian Ministry of Education and Research (MIUR), and by the Italian Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri – Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC).
    Description: Published
    Description: B12404
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Molise-Gondola shear zone ; Vizzini-Scicli shear zone ; Gargano Promontory ; Hyblean Plateau ; slip reversal ; 1627 earthquake ; 1693 earthquake ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): C03019, doi:10.1029/2007JC004153.
    Description: Estimates of temporal trends in oceanic anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) rely on the ability of empirical methods to remove the large natural variability of the ocean carbon system. A coupled carbon-climate model is used to evaluate these empirical methods. Both the ΔC* and multiple linear regression (MLR) techniques reproduce the predicted increase in dissolved inorganic carbon for the majority of the ocean and have similar average percent errors for decadal differences (24.1% and 25.5%, respectively). However, this study identifies several regions where these methods may introduce errors. Of particular note are mode and deep water formation regions, where changes in air-sea disequilibrium and structure in the MLR residuals introduce errors. These results have significant implications for decadal repeat hydrography programs, indicating the need for subannual sampling in certain regions of the oceans in order to better constrain the natural variability in the system and to robustly estimate the intrusion of anthropogenic CO2.
    Description: We would like to acknowledge funding from NSF (OCE02-23869), NCAR, the WHOI Ocean Climate Institute, a Linden Earth Systems Graduate Fellowship (MIT), and a National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. R.W. is supported by the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research at NOAA.
    Keywords: Carbon dioxide ; Ocean carbon sink ; Climate change
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 25 (2011): GB3022, doi:10.1029/2010GB003892.
    Description: The North Atlantic Ocean accounts for about 25% of the global oceanic anthropogenic carbon sink. This basin experiences significant interannual variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A suite of biogeochemical model simulations is used to analyze the impact of interannual variability on the uptake and storage of contemporary and anthropogenic carbon (Canthro) in the North Atlantic Ocean. Greater winter mixing during positive NAO years results in increased mode water formation and subsequent increases in subtropical and subpolar Canthro inventories. Our analysis suggests that changes in mode water Canthro inventories are primarily due to changes in water mass volumes driven by variations in water mass transformation rates rather than local air-sea CO2 exchange. This suggests that a significant portion of anthropogenic carbon found in the ocean interior may be derived from surface waters advected into water formation regions rather than from local gas exchange. Therefore, changes in climate modes, such as the NAO, may alter the residence time of anthropogenic carbon in the ocean by altering the rate of water mass transformation. In addition, interannual variability in Canthro storage increases the difficulty of Canthro detection and attribution through hydrographic observations, which are limited by sparse sampling of subsurface waters in time and space.
    Description: We would like to acknowledge funding from the NOAA Climate Program under the Office of Climate Observations and Global Carbon Cycle Program (NOAA‐NA07OAR4310098), NSF (OCE‐0623034), NCAR, the WHOI Ocean Climate Institute, a National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship and an Environmental Protection Agency STAR graduate fellowship. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.
    Keywords: North Atlantic Oscillation ; Anthropogenic carbon ; Carbon cycle ; Climate change ; Global climate model ; Mode waters
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2006. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Water Resources Research 42 (2006): W03426, doi:10.1029/2005WR004131.
    Description: We assessed the effects of historical (1931-1998) changes in both land-use and climate on the water budget of a rapidly urbanizing watershed, Ipswich River basin (IRB), in northeastern Massachusetts. Water diversions and extremely low flow during summer are major issues in the IRB. Our study centers on a detailed analysis of diversions and a combined empirical/modeling treatment of evapotranspiration (ET) response to changes in climate and land-use. A detailed accounting of diversions showed that net diversions increased due to increases in water withdrawals (primarily ground water pumping) and export of sewage. Net diversions constitute a major component of runoff (20% of streamflow). Using a combination of empirical analysis and physically based modeling we related an increase in precipitation (2.7 mm/yr) and changes in other climate variables to an increase in ET (1.7 mm/yr). Simulations with a physically based water-balance model showed that the increase in ET could be attributed entirely to a change in climate, while the effect of land-use change was negligible. The land-use change effect was different from ET and runoff trends commonly associated with urbanization. We generalized these and other findings to predict future streamflow using climate change scenarios. Our study could serve as a framework for studying suburban watersheds, being the first study of a suburban watershed that addresses long-term effects of changes in both land-use and climate, and accounts for diversions and other unique aspects of suburban hydrology.
    Description: This research was partially supported by NSF grants (DEB-9726862, OCE-9726921 and OCE-0423565).
    Keywords: Water budgets ; Evapotranspiration ; Climate change ; Land-use change ; Urbanization ; Water-balance model ; Ipswich River
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 9 (2008): Q09V10, doi:10.1029/2008GC002043.
    Description: Patterns of overwash deposition observed within back-barrier sediment archives can indicate past changes in tropical cyclone activity; however, it is necessary to evaluate the significance of observed trends in the context of the full range of variability under modern climate conditions. Here we present a method for assessing the statistical significance of patterns observed within a sedimentary hurricane-overwash reconstruction. To alleviate restrictions associated with the limited number of historical hurricanes affecting a specific site, we apply a recently published technique for generating a large number of synthetic storms using a coupled ocean-atmosphere hurricane model set to simulate modern climatology. Thousands of overwash records are generated for a site using a random draw of these synthetic hurricanes, a prescribed threshold for overwash, and a specified temporal resolution based on sedimentation rates observed at a particular site. As a test case we apply this Monte Carlo technique to a hurricane-induced overwash reconstruction developed from Laguna Playa Grande (LPG), a coastal lagoon located on the island of Vieques, Puerto Rico in the northeastern Caribbean. Apparent overwash rates in the LPG overwash record are observed to be four times lower between 2500 and 1000 years B.P. when compared to apparent overwash rates during the last 300 years. However, probability distributions based on Monte Carlo simulations indicate that as much as 65% of this drop can be explained by a reduction in the temporal resolution for older sediments due to a decrease in sedimentation rates. Periods of no apparent overwash activity at LPG between 2500 and 3600 years B.P. and 500–1000 years B.P. are exceptionally long and are unlikely to occur (above 99% confidence) under the current climate conditions. In addition, breaks in activity are difficult to produce even when the hurricane model is forced to a constant El Niño state. Results from this study continue to support the interpretation that the western North Atlantic has exhibited significant changes in hurricane climatology over the last 5500 years.
    Description: Funding for this research was provided by the Earth Systems History Program of the National Science Foundation, Risk Prediction Initiative, National Geographic Society, Coastal Ocean Institute at WHOI, and the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research.
    Keywords: Tropical cyclones ; Paleotempestology ; Paleoclimate ; Holocene ; Climate change ; Sedimentology
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): G02026, doi:10.1029/2007JG000470.
    Description: Permafrost is a defining characteristic of the Arctic environment. However, climate warming is thawing permafrost in many areas leading to failures in soil structure called thermokarst. An extensive survey of a 600 km2 area in and around the Toolik Lake Natural Research Area (TLNRA) revealed at least 34 thermokarst features, two thirds of which were new since ∼1980 when a high resolution aerial survey of the area was done. Most of these thermokarst features were associated with headwater streams or lakes. We have measured significantly increased sediment and nutrient loading from thermokarst features to streams in two well-studied locations near the TLNRA. One small thermokarst gully that formed in 2003 on the Toolik River in a 0.9 km2 subcatchment delivered more sediment to the river than is normally delivered in 18 years from 132 km2 in the adjacent upper Kuparuk River basin (a long-term monitoring reference site). Ammonium, nitrate, and phosphate concentrations downstream from a thermokarst feature on Imnavait Creek increased significantly compared to upstream reference concentrations and the increased concentrations persisted over the period of sampling (1999–2005). The downstream concentrations were similar to those we have used in a long-term experimental manipulation of the Kuparuk River and that have significantly altered the structure and function of that river. A subsampling of other thermokarst features from the extensive regional survey showed that concentrations of ammonium, nitrate, and phosphate were always higher downstream of the thermokarst features. Our previous research has shown that even minor increases in nutrient loading stimulate primary and secondary production. However, increased sediment loading could interfere with benthic communities and change the responses to increased nutrient delivery. Although the terrestrial area impacted by thermokarsts is limited, the aquatic habitat altered by these failures can be extensive. If warming in the Arctic foothills accelerates thermokarst formation, there may be substantial and wide-spread impacts on arctic stream ecosystems that are currently poorly understood.
    Description: The results presented in this report are based upon work supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation under grants to the Arctic Hyporheic project (OPP- 0327440) and the Arctic Long-Term Ecological Research Program (DEB- 9810222).
    Keywords: Arctic ; Climate change ; Streams ; Ecosystem dynamics ; Sediment ; Thermokarst ; Water quality
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2003. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 108, C12 (2003): 3384, doi:10.1029/2002JC001347.
    Description: The decade of the 1990s was the warmest decade of the last century, while the year 1998 was the warmest year ever observed by modern techniques, with 9 out of 12 months of the year being the warmest months. Satellite ice cover and surface temperature data, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (wind), and ocean hydrographic data are examined to gain insights into this warming phenomenon. Areas of ice-free water in both western and eastern regions of the Arctic are found to have followed a cyclical pattern with approximately decadal period but with a lag of about 3 years between the eastern and western regions. The pattern was interrupted by unusually large anomalies in 1993 and 1998 in the western region and in 1995 in the eastern region. The area of open water in 1998 was the largest ever observed in the western region and occurred concurrently with large surface temperature anomalies in the area and adjacent regions. This also occurred at a time when the atmospheric circulation changed from predominantly cyclonic in 1996 to anticyclonic in 1997 and 1998. Detailed hydrographic measurements over the same general area in April 1996 and April 1997 indicate a warming and significant freshening in the top layer of the ocean, suggesting increases in ice melt and/or river runoff. Continuous ocean temperature and salinity data from ocean buoys at depths of 8, 45, and 75 m confirm these results and show large interannual changes during the 1996–1998 period. Surface temperature data show a general warming in the region that is highly correlated with observed decline in summer sea ice, while hydrographic data suggest that in 1997 and 1998, the upper part of the ocean was unusually fresh and warm compared to available data between 1956 and 1996.
    Description: Deployments of the IOEB were supported by the Japanese Marine Science and Technology Center (JAMSTEC).
    Keywords: Arctic Sea ice ; Climate change ; Surface temperature ; Wind ; Buoy ; Hydrography
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 112 (2007): D22S09, doi:10.1029/2007JD008521.
    Description: We investigated the potential effects of elevated ozone (O3) along with climate variability, increasing CO2, and land use change on net primary productivity (NPP) and carbon storage in China's terrestrial ecosystems for the period 1961–2000 with a process-based Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) forced by the gridded data of historical tropospheric O3 and other environmental factors. The simulated results showed that elevated O3 could result in a mean 4.5% reduction in NPP and 0.9% reduction in total carbon storage nationwide from 1961 to 2000. The reduction of carbon storage varied from 0.1 Tg C to 312 Tg C (a decreased rate ranging from 0.2% to 6.9%) among plant functional types. The effects of tropospheric O3 on NPP were strongest in east-central China. Significant reductions in NPP occurred in northeastern and central China where a large proportion of cropland is distributed. The O3 effects on carbon fluxes and storage are dependent upon other environmental factors. Therefore direct and indirect effects of O3, as well as interactive effects with other environmental factors, should be taken into account in order to accurately assess the regional carbon budget in China. The results showed that the adverse influences of increasing O3 concentration across China on NPP could be an important disturbance factor on carbon storage in the near future, and the improvement of air quality in China could enhance the capability of China's terrestrial ecosystems to sequester more atmospheric CO2. Our estimation of O3 impacts on NPP and carbon storage in China, however, must be used with caution because of the limitation of historical tropospheric O3 data and other uncertainties associated with model parameters and field experiments.
    Description: This research is funded by NASA Interdisciplinary Science Program (NNG04GM39C).
    Keywords: Air pollution ; Carbon storage ; China ; Climate change ; Net primary productivity ; Tropospheric ozone
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 39 (2012): L15501, doi:10.1029/2012GL052222.
    Description: Starting in Late Pleistocene time (~19 ka), sea level rise inundated coastal zones worldwide. On some parts of the present-day circum-Arctic continental shelf, this led to flooding and thawing of formerly subaerial permafrost and probable dissociation of associated gas hydrates. Relict permafrost has never been systematically mapped along the 700-km-long U.S. Beaufort Sea continental shelf and is often assumed to extend to ~120 m water depth, the approximate amount of sea level rise since the Late Pleistocene. Here, 5,000 km of multichannel seismic (MCS) data acquired between 1977 and 1992 were examined for high-velocity (〉2.3 km s−1) refractions consistent with ice-bearing, coarse-grained sediments. Permafrost refractions were identified along 〈5% of the tracklines at depths of ~5 to 470 m below the seafloor. The resulting map reveals the minimum extent of subsea ice-bearing permafrost, which does not extend seaward of 30 km offshore or beyond the 20 m isobath.
    Description: This research was sponsored by DOE-USGS Interagency Agreement DE-FE0002911. L.B. was supported by a DOE NETL/NRC Methane Hydrate Fellowship under DE-FC26-05NT42248.
    Keywords: Beaufort Sea ; Climate change ; Methane hydrates ; Refraction ; Sea level ; Subsea permafrost
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 115 (2010): F03033, doi:10.1029/2009JF001486.
    Description: When modeling the large-scale (〉 km) evolution of coastline morphology, the influence of natural forces is not the only consideration; ongoing direct human manipulations can substantially drive geomorphic change. In this paper, we couple a human component to a numerical model of large-scale coastline evolution, incorporating beach “nourishment” (periodically placing sand on the beach, also called “beach replenishment” or “beach fill”). Beach nourishment is the most prevalent means humans employ to alter the natural shoreline system in our case study, the Carolina coastline. Beach nourishment can cause shorelines adjacent to those that are nourished to shift both seaward and landward. When we further consider how changes to storm behaviors could change wave climates, the magnitude of morphological change induced by beach nourishment can rival that expected from sea level rise and affect the coast as far as tens of kilometers away from the nourishment site. In some instances, nonlocal processes governing large-scale cuspate-cape coastline evolution may transmit the human morphological “signal” over surprisingly large (hundreds of kilometer) distances.
    Description: The National Science Foundation (DEB 0507987) and the Duke University Center on Global Change supported this work.
    Keywords: Coastline evolution ; Beach nourishment ; Climate change
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 38 (2011): L06602, doi:10.1029/2010GL046573.
    Description: Iron is an essential micronutrient that limits primary productivity in much of the ocean, including the Gulf of Alaska (GoA). However, the processes that transport iron to the ocean surface are poorly quantified. We combine satellite and meteorological data to provide the first description of widespread dust transport from coastal Alaska into the GoA. Dust is frequently transported from glacially-derived sediment at the mouths of several rivers, the most prominent of which is the Copper River. These dust events occur most frequently in autumn, when coastal river levels are low and riverbed sediments are exposed. The dust plumes are transported several hundred kilometers beyond the continental shelf into iron-limited waters. We estimate the mass of dust transported from the Copper River valley during one 2006 dust event to be between 25–80 ktons. Based on conservative estimates, this equates to a soluble iron loading of 30–200 tons. We suggest the soluble Fe flux from dust originating in glaciofluvial sediment deposits from the entire GoA coastline is two to three times larger, and is comparable to the annual Fe flux to GoA surface waters from eddies of coastal origin. Given that glaciers are retreating in the coastal GoA region and in other locations, it is important to examine whether fluxes of dust are increasing from glacierized landscapes to the ocean, and to assess the impact of associated Fe on marine ecosystems.
    Description: We appreciate support from the USGS CMGP, NCCWSC, the Mendenhall postdoc program, the Woods Hole PEP intern program, and from NASA‐IDS.
    Keywords: Dust ; Glacier ; Iron ; Aerosol ; Climate change ; Micronutrient
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 116 (2011): C03026, doi:10.1029/2010JC006670.
    Description: A regional coupled model is used for a dynamic downscaling over the tropical Atlantic based on a global warming simulation carried out with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory CM2.1. The regional coupled model features a realistic representation of equatorial ocean dynamical processes such as the tropical instability waves (TIWs) that are not adequately simulated in many global coupled climate models. The coupled downscaling hence provides a unique opportunity to assess their response and impact in a changing climate. Under global warming, both global and regional models exhibit an increased (decreased) rainfall in the tropical northeast (South) Atlantic. Given this asymmetric change in mean state, the regional model produces the intensified near-surface cross-equatorial southerly wind and zonal currents. The equatorial cold tongue exhibits a reduced surface warming due to the enhanced upwelling. It is mainly associated with the increased vertical velocities driven by cross-equatorial wind, in contrast to the equatorial Pacific, where thermal stratification is suggested to be more important under global warming. The strengthened upwelling and zonal currents in turn amplify the dynamic instability of the equatorial ocean, thereby intensifying TIWs. The increased eddy heat flux significantly warms the equator and counters the effect of enhanced upwelling. Zonal eddy heat flux makes the largest contribution, suggesting a need for sustained monitoring of TIWs with spatially denser observational arrays in the equatorial oceans. Overall, results suggest that eddy heat flux is an important factor that may impact the mean state warming of equatorial oceans, as it does in the current climate.
    Description: H.S. acknowledges the support from the NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship Program and the Penzance Endowed Fund in Support of Assistant Scientists at WHOI. H.S. and S.‐P.X. are thankful for support from NOAA, NSF, and the Japan Agency for Marine‐Earth Science and Technology.
    Keywords: Climate change ; Ocean mesoscale eddy ; Equatorial Atlantic
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Proshutinsky, A., Krishfield, R., Toole, J. M., Timmermans, M-L., Williams, W. J., Zimmermann, S., Yamamoto-Kawai, M., Armitage, T. W. K., Dukhovskoy, D., Golubeva, E., Manucharyan, G. E., Platov, G., Watanabe, E., Kikuchi, T., Nishino, S., Itoh, M., Kang, S-H., Cho, K-H., Tateyama, K., & Zhao, J. Analysis of the Beaufort Gyre freshwater content in 2003-2018. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 124(12), (2019): 9658-9689, doi:10.1029/2019JC015281.
    Description: Hydrographic data collected from research cruises, bottom‐anchored moorings, drifting Ice‐Tethered Profilers, and satellite altimetry in the Beaufort Gyre region of the Arctic Ocean document an increase of more than 6,400 km3 of liquid freshwater content from 2003 to 2018: a 40% growth relative to the climatology of the 1970s. This fresh water accumulation is shown to result from persistent anticyclonic atmospheric wind forcing (1997–2018) accompanied by sea ice melt, a wind‐forced redirection of Mackenzie River discharge from predominantly eastward to westward flow, and a contribution of low salinity waters of Pacific Ocean origin via Bering Strait. Despite significant uncertainties in the different observations, this study has demonstrated the synergistic value of having multiple diverse datasets to obtain a more comprehensive understanding of Beaufort Gyre freshwater content variability. For example, Beaufort Gyre Observational System (BGOS) surveys clearly show the interannual increase in freshwater content, but without satellite or Ice‐Tethered Profiler measurements, it is not possible to resolve the seasonal cycle of freshwater content, which in fact is larger than the year‐to‐year variability, or the more subtle interannual variations.
    Description: National Science Foundation. Grant Numbers: PLR‐1302884,OPP‐1719280, and OPP‐1845877, PLR‐1303644 and OPP‐1756100, OPP‐1756100, PLR‐1303644, OPP‐1845877, OPP‐1719280, PLR‐1302884 Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China. Grant Number: 41330960 Global Change Research Program of China. Grant Number: 2015CB953900 Ministry of Education, Korea Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) /Earth Observation Research Center (EORC) Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan (MEXT) Stanback Postdoctoral Fellowship Russian Foundation for Basic Research. Grant Number: 17‐05‐00382 Presidium of Russian Academy of Sciences HYCOM NOPP. Grant Number: N00014‐15‐1‐2594 DOE. Grant Number: DE‐SC0014378 National Aeronautics and Space Administration Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
    Keywords: Beaufort Gyre ; Arctic Ocean ; Freshwater balance ; Circulation ; Modeling ; Climate change
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 46(16), (2019): 9851-9860, doi:10.1029/2019GL083726.
    Description: Coral reef calcification is expected to decline due to climate change stressors such as ocean acidification and warming. Projections of future coral reef health are based on our understanding of the environmental drivers that affect calcification and dissolution. One such driver that may impact coral reef health is heterotrophy of oceanic‐sourced particulate organic matter, but its link to calcification has not been directly investigated in the field. In this study, we estimated net ecosystem calcification and oceanic particulate organic carbon (POCoc) uptake across the Kāne'ohe Bay barrier reef in Hawai'i. We show that higher rates of POCoc uptake correspond to greater net ecosystem calcification rates, even under low aragonite saturation states (Ωar). Hence, reductions in offshore productivity may negatively impact coral reefs by decreasing the food supply required to sustain calcification. Alternatively, coral reefs that receive ample inputs of POCoc may maintain higher calcification rates, despite a global decline in Ωar.
    Description: Data needed for calculations are available in the supporting information. Additional data can be provided upon request directly from the corresponding author or accessed by links provided in the supporting information. The authors declare no competing financial interests. We thank Texas Sea Grant for providing partial funding for this project to A. Kealoha through the Grants‐In‐Aid of Graduate Research Program. We also thank the NOAA Nancy Foster Scholarship for PhD program funding to A. Kealoha and Texas A&M University for funds awarded to Shamberger that supported this work. This research was also supported by funding from National Science Foundation Grant OCE‐1538628 to Rappé. The Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology (particularly the Rappé Lab and Jason Jones), NOAA's Coral Reef Ecosystem Program, Connie Previti, Serena Smith, and Chris Maupin were instrumental in sample collection and data analysis.
    Description: 2020-02-22
    Keywords: Coral reefs ; Ocean acidification ; Climate change ; Heterotrophy
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 36(1), (2022): e2021GB007113, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GB007113.
    Description: Stordalen Mire is a peatland in the discontinuous permafrost zone in arctic Sweden that exhibits a habitat gradient from permafrost palsa, to Sphagnum bog underlain by permafrost, to Eriophorum-dominated fully thawed fen. We used three independent approaches to evaluate the annual, multi-decadal, and millennial apparent carbon accumulation rates (aCAR) across this gradient: seven years of direct semi-continuous measurement of CO2 and CH4 exchange, and 21 core profiles for 210Pb and 14C peat dating. Year-round chamber measurements indicated net carbon balance of −13 ± 8, −49 ± 15, and −91 ± 43 g C m−2 y−1 for the years 2012–2018 in palsa, bog, and fen, respectively. Methane emission offset 2%, 7%, and 17% of the CO2 uptake rate across this gradient. Recent aCAR indicates higher C accumulation rates in surface peats in the palsa and bog compared to current CO2 fluxes, but these assessments are more similar in the fen. aCAR increased from low millennial-scale levels (17–29 g C m−2 y−1) to moderate aCAR of the past century (72–81 g C m−2 y−1) to higher recent aCAR of 90–147 g C m−2 y−1. Recent permafrost collapse, greater inundation and vegetation response has made the landscape a stronger CO2 sink, but this CO2 sink is increasingly offset by rising CH4 emissions, dominated by modern carbon as determined by 14C. The higher CH4 emissions result in higher net CO2-equivalent emissions, indicating that radiative forcing of this mire and similar permafrost ecosystems will exert a warming influence on future climate.
    Description: We would like to acknowledge the following funding in support of this project: Swedish Research Council (Vetenskapsrådet, VR) grants (NT 2007-4547 and NT 2013-5562 to P. Crill), U.S. Department of Energy grants (DE-SC0004632 and DE-SC0010580 to V. Rich and S. Saleska), and U.S. National Science Foundation MacroSystems Biology grant (NSF EF #1241037, PI Varner). This work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research under the Genomic Science program. We also acknowledge funding from the National Science Foundation for the EMERGE Biology Integration Institute, NSF Award #2022070.
    Description: 2022-07-03
    Keywords: Peat ; Carbon cycling ; Permafrost ; Carbon-14 ; Lead-210 ; Climate change
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 127(1), (2022): e2021JC017424, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017424.
    Description: By compiling boreal summer (June to October) CO2 measurements from 1989 to 2019 on the Bering and eastern Chukchi Sea shelves, we find that the study areas act as a CO2 sink except when impacted by river runoff and wind-driven upwelling. The CO2 system in this area is seasonally dominated by the biological pump especially in the northern Bering Sea and near Hanna Shoal, while wind-driven upwelling of CO2-rich bottom water can cause episodic outgassing. Seasonal surface ΔfCO2 (oceanic fCO2 – air fCO2) is dominantly driven by temperature only during periods of weak CO2 outgassing in shallow nearshore areas. However, after comparing the mean summer ΔfCO2 during the periods of 1989–2013 and 2014–2019, we suggest that temperature does drive long-term, multi-decadal patterns in ΔfCO2. In the northern Chukchi Sea, rapid warming concurrent with reduced seasonal sea-ice persistence caused the regional summer CO2 sink to decrease. By contrast, increasing primary productivity caused the regional summer CO2 sink on the Bering Sea shelf to increase over time. While additional time series are needed to confirm the seasonal and annual trajectory of CO2 changes and ocean acidification in these dynamic and spatially complex ecosystems, this study provides a meaningful mechanistic analysis of recent changes in inorganic carbonate chemistry. As high-resolution time series of inorganic carbonate parameters lengthen and short-term variations are better constrained in the coming decades, we will have stronger confidence in assessing the mechanisms contributing to long-term changes in the source/sink status of regional sub-Arctic seas.
    Description: We gratefully acknowledge the support of the funding agencies that supported this analysis, including the New Sustained Observations for Arctic Research project and the DBO-NCIS project (NA14OAR4320158, NA19OAR4320074) from the NOAA Arctic Research Program.
    Description: 2022-06-17
    Keywords: Pacific Arctic region ; Sea-air CO2 flux ; Ocean acidification ; Climate change ; Sea-ice loss ; Surface ocean CO2 Atlas
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 2022-12-23
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 49(12), (2022): e2021GL097598, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL097598.
    Description: The ocean is inhomogeneous in hydrographic properties with diverse water masses. Yet, how this inhomogeneity has evolved in a rapidly changing climate has not been investigated. Using multiple observational and reanalysis datasets, we show that the spatial standard deviation (SSD) of the global ocean has increased by 1.4 ± 0.1% in temperature and 1.5 ± 0.1% in salinity since 1960. A newly defined thermohaline inhomogeneity index, a holistic measure of both temperature and salinity changes, has increased by 2.4 ± 0.1%. Climate model simulations suggest that the observed ocean inhomogeneity increase is dominated by anthropogenic forcing and projected to accelerate by 200%–300% during 2015–2100. Geographically, the rapid upper-ocean warming at mid-to-low latitudes dominates the temperature inhomogeneity increase, while the increasing salinity inhomogeneity is mainly due to the amplified salinity contrast between the subtropical and subpolar latitudes.
    Description: This work is supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (grant XDB42000000 and XDB40000000), the National Key R&D Program of China (2017YFA0603200), and the Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation (ZR2020JQ17), and the U.S. National Science Foundation Physical Oceanography Program (OCE- 2048336).
    Description: 2022-12-23
    Keywords: Global ocean ; Temperature ; Salinity ; Spatial inhomogeneity ; Climate change
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2022-10-27
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 126(1), (2021): e2019JG005621, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JG005621.
    Description: Ongoing ocean warming can release methane (CH4) currently stored in ocean sediments as free gas and gas hydrates. Once dissolved in ocean waters, this CH4 can be oxidized to carbon dioxide (CO2). While it has been hypothesized that the CO2 produced from aerobic CH4 oxidation could enhance ocean acidification, a previous study conducted in Hudson Canyon shows that CH4 oxidation has a small short‐term influence on ocean pH and dissolved inorganic radiocarbon. Here we expand upon that investigation to assess the impact of widespread CH4 seepage on CO2 chemistry and possible accumulation of this carbon injection along 234 km of the U.S. Mid‐Atlantic Bight. Consistent with the estimates from Hudson Canyon, we demonstrate that a small fraction of ancient CH4‐derived carbon is being assimilated into the dissolved inorganic radiocarbon (mean fraction of 0.5 ± 0.4%). The areas with the highest fractions of ancient carbon coincide with elevated CH4 concentration and active gas seepage. This suggests that aerobic CH4 oxidation has a greater influence on the dissolved inorganic pool in areas where CH4 concentrations are locally elevated, instead of displaying a cumulative effect downcurrent from widespread groupings of CH4 seeps. A first‐order approximation of the input rate of ancient‐derived dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) into the waters overlying the northern U.S. Mid‐Atlantic Bight further suggests that oxidation of ancient CH4‐derived carbon is not negligible on the global scale and could contribute to deepwater acidification over longer time scales.
    Description: This study was sponsored by U.S. Department of Energy (DE‐FE0028980, awarded to J. D. K; DE‐FE0026195 interagency agreement with C. D. R.). We thank the crew of the R/V Hugh R. Sharp for their support, G. Hatcher, J. Borden, and M. Martini of the USGS for assistance with the LADCP, and Zach Bunnell, Lillian Henderson, and Allison Laubach for additional support at sea.
    Description: 2021-06-23
    Keywords: Radiocarbon ; Methane ; DIC ; Ocean acidification ; Climate change ; U.S Mid-Atlantic Bight
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2022-10-19
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology 36(7), (2021): e2020PA004088, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004088.
    Description: We reconstruct deep water-mass salinities and spatial distributions in the western North Atlantic during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 19–26 ka), a period when atmospheric CO2 was significantly lower than it is today. A reversal in the LGM Atlantic meridional bottom water salinity gradient has been hypothesized for several LGM water-mass reconstructions. Such a reversal has the potential to influence climate, ocean circulation, and atmospheric CO2 by increasing the thermal energy and carbon storage capacity of the deep ocean. To test this hypothesis, we reconstructed LGM bottom water salinity based on sedimentary porewater chloride profiles in a north-south transect of piston cores collected from the deep western North Atlantic. LGM bottom water salinity in the deep western North Atlantic determined by the density-based method is 3.41–3.99 ± 0.15% higher than modern values at these sites. This increase is consistent with: (a) the 3.6% global average salinity change expected from eustatic sea level rise, (b) a northward expansion of southern sourced deep water, (c) shoaling of northern sourced deep water, and (d) a reversal of the Atlantic's north-south deep water salinity gradient during the LGM.
    Description: This work was supported by the US National Science Foundation (grant numbers 1433150 and 1537485).
    Description: 2021-10-24
    Keywords: Carbon cycle ; Climate change ; Deep water ; Glaciation ; Meridional overturning circulation ; Paleosalinity ; Porewater
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2022-10-20
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Water Resources Research 57(7), (2021): e2020WR028727, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028727.
    Description: Numerous wetlands in the prairies of Canada provide important ecosystem services, yet are threatened by climate and land-use changes. Understanding the impacts of climate change on prairie wetlands is critical to effective conservation planning. In this study, we construct a wetland model with surface water balance and ecoregions to project future distribution of wetlands. The climatic conditions downscaled from the Weather Research and Forecasting model were used to drive the Noah-MP land surface model to obtain surface water balance. The climate change perturbation is derived from an ensemble of general circulation models using the pseudo global warming method, under the RCP8.5 emission scenario by the end of 21st century. The results show that climate change impacts on wetland extent are spatiotemporally heterogenous. Future wetter climate in the western Prairies will favor increased wetland abundance in both spring and summer. In the eastern Prairies, particularly in the mixed grassland and mid-boreal upland, wetland areas will increase in spring but experience enhanced declines in summer due to strong evapotranspiration. When these effects of climate change are considered in light of historical drainage, they suggest a need for diverse conservation and restoration strategies. For the mixed grassland in the western Canadian Prairies, wetland restoration will be favorable, while the highly drained eastern Prairies will be challenged by the intensified hydrological cycle. The outcomes of this study will be useful to conservation agencies to ensure that current investments will continue to provide good conservation returns in the future.
    Description: Z. Zhang was funded by a Mitacs Accelerate Fellowship funded by Ducks Unlimited Canada's Institute for Wetland and Waterfowl Research. Z. Zhang, Z. Li, and Y. Li acknowledge the financial support from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Discovery Grant, and Global Water Futures Program, Canada First Research Excellence Fund. This project was supported by grants from Wildlife Habitat Canada, Bass Pro Shops Cabela’s Outdoor Fund, and the Alberta NAWMP Partnership.
    Description: 2021-12-21
    Keywords: Wetland ; Hydrology ; Climate change ; Prairie Pothole Region ; Waterfowl ; Conservation
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