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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk  (21)
  • 05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous  (3)
  • Springer Science+Business Media B.V.  (23)
  • American Chemical Society
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  • 1
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    The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results (2016)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-09-08
    Description: The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13) results from a community-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment supported by the EU-FP7 project “Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe” (SHARE, 2009–2013). The ESHM13 is a consistent seismic hazard model for Europe and Turkey which overcomes the limitation of national borders and includes a through quantification of the uncertainties. It is the first completed regional effort contributing to the “Global Earthquake Model” initiative. It might serve as a reference model for various applications, from earthquake preparedness to earthquake risk mitigation strategies, including the update of the European seismic regulations for building design (Eurocode 8), and thus it is useful for future safety assessment and improvement of private and public buildings. Although its results constitute a reference for Europe, they do not replace the existing national design regulations that are in place for seismic design and construction of buildings. The ESHM13 represents a significant improvement compared to previous efforts as it is based on (1) the compilation of updated and harmonised versions of the databases required for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, (2) the adoption of standard procedures and robust methods, especially for expert elicitation and consensus building among hundreds of European experts, (3) the multi-disciplinary input from all branches of earthquake science and engineering, (4) the direct involvement of the CEN/TC250/SC8 committee in defining output specifications relevant for Eurocode 8 and (5) the accounting for epistemic uncertainties of model components and hazard results. Furthermore, enormous effort was devoted to transparently document and ensure open availability of all data, results and methods through the European Facility for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.​efehr.​org).
    Description: Published
    Description: 3553-3596
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment ; Uncertainty analysis ; Earthquake engineering ; Logic-tree ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.02. Seismological data
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Informal Education for Disaster Risk Reduction (2015)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-23
    Description: Education is a long-term defence against disasters that enables societies to better cope with seismic hazard in different ways. It can directly influence risk perception, skills and knowledge, and promote access to information and resources. The ‘Urban Disasters Prevention Strategies using Macroseismic Faults’ (UPStrat-MAFA) project investigated disaster mitigation strategies, including education. Risk reduction efforts implemented in schools were measured through surveys conducted mostly in Iceland, but also in major urban areas of Italy and Portugal that are all exposed to various levels of seismic hazard. The survey included an evaluation of how active local authorities were in the dissemination of information, and how this information was channelled to schools. Vulnerability mitigation for building interiors and efforts towards educating pupils towards a culture of safety were also measured. The study indicates that the authorities and scientists need to take actions for the introduction of hazard education into school curricula, and to provide better information on the hazard at the local level. However, above all, they owe children better tools towards a more efficient preparedness.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2105–2116
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: earthquake risk, preventive measures, preparedness, risk reduction, risk awareness ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
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    The role of the urban system dysfunction in the assessment of seismic risk in the Mt. Etna area (Italy) (2015)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-08
    Description: A procedure for seismic risk assessment is applied to the Mt. Etna area (eastern Sicily, Italy) through assessment of urban system dysfunction following the occurrence of an earthquake.The tool used is based on the Disruption Index as a concept implemented in Simulator QuakeIST, which defines urban disruption following a natural disaster. The first element of the procedure is the definition of the seismic input, which is based on information about historical seismicity and seismogenic faults. The second element is computation of seismic impact on the building stock and infrastructure in the area considered. Information on urban-scale vulnerability was collected and a geographic information system was used to organise the data relating to buildings and network systems (e.g., building stock, schools, strategic structures, lifelines). The central idea underlying the definition of the Disruption Index is identification and evaluation of the impact on a target community through the physical elements that most contribute to severe disruption. The procedure applied in this study (i.e., software and data) constitutes a very useful operational tool to drive the development of strategies to minimise risks from earthquakes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1979–2008
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Seismic impact ; Disruption index ; Urban system ; Risk measures ; Mt. Etna area (Italy) ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
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    Building vulnerability and seismic risk analysis in the urban area of Mt. Etna volcano (Italy) (2015)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: The tectonic system of the eastern flank of Mt. Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy) is the source of most of the strongest earthquakes occurring in the area over the last 205 years. A total of 12 events with epicentre intensities CVIII EMS have occurred at Mt. Etna, 10 of which were located on the eastern flank. This indicates a mean recurrence time of about 20 years. This area is highly urbanised, with many villages around the volcano at altitudes up to 700 m a.s.l. The southern and eastern flanks are particularly highly populated areas, with numerous villages very close to each other. The probabilistic seismic hazard due to local faults for Mt. Etna was calculated by adopting a site approach to seismic hazard assessment. Only the site histories of local volcano-tectonic earthquakes were considered, leaving out the effects due to strong regional earthquakes that occurred in north-eastern and south-eastern Sicily. The inventory used in this application refers to residential buildings. These data were extracted from the 1991 census of the Italian National Institute of Statistics, and are grouped according to the census sections. The seismic vulnerability of the elements at risk belonging to a given building typology is described by a vulnerability index, in accordance with a damage model based on macroseismic intensities. For the estimation of economic losses due to physical damage to buildings, an integrated impact indicator was used, which is equivalent to the lost building volume. The expected annualised economic earthquake losses were evaluated both in absolute and in relative terms, and were compared with the geographical distribution of seismic hazard and with similar evaluations of losses for other regions.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2031–2045
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Economic losses ; Mt. Etna volcano ; Seismic risk ; Vulnerability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
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    Dissemination strategies to instil a culture of safety on earthquake hazard and risk (2015)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-23
    Description: Dissemination of knowledge should be a core objective for scientists who work with communities exposed to natural disasters. This task requires the spread of knowledge, to make the public aware in a simple, easy-to-understand, manner, yet without any loss of accuracy. ‘Urban Disaster Prevention Strategies using Macroseismic Fields and Fault Sources’ (UPStrat-MAFA) was a European project devoted to the implementation of strategies for urban disaster prevention of several aspects of seismic hazard, including the damage state and the earthquake impact. The project carried out numerous outreach activities for the public and stakeholders, to encourage the development of a bottom-up strategy towards disasters mitigation. Here we provide a description of actions that have been aimed at: (i) ensuring effective dissemination and communication of the project outcomes, also after its completion; and (ii) raising public awareness and understanding in countries exposed to earthquake hazard.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2087–2103
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: disaster prevention, education, risk reduction, earthquake hazards, dissemination ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
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    Education: can a bottom-up strategy help for earthquake disaster prevention? (2015)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-23
    Description: To comply with the need to spread the culture of earthquake disaster reduction, we rely on strategies that involve education. Risk education is a long-term process that passes from knowledge, through understanding, to choices and actions thrusting preparedness and prevention, over recovery. We set up strategies for prevention that encompass child and adult education, as a bottom-up approach, from raising awareness to reducing potential effects of disruption of society. Analysis of compulsory school education in three European countries at high seismic risk, namely Portugal, Iceland and Italy, reveals that generally there are a few State-backed plans. The crucial aspects of risk education concerning natural hazards are starting age, incompleteness of textbooks, and lack of in-depth studies of the pupils upon completion of their compulsory education cycle. Hands-on tools, immersive environments, and learn-by-playing approaches are the most effective ways to raise interest in children, to provide memory imprint as a message towards a culture of safety. A video game, Treme-treme, was prepared to motivate, educate, train and communicate earthquake risk to players/pupils. The game focuses on do’s and don’ts for earthquake shaking, and allows children to think about what might be useful in the case of evacuation. Education of the general public was addressed using audio-visual products strongly linked to the social, historical and cultural background of each country. Five videos tackled rising of awareness of seismic hazards in Lisbon, the area surrounding Reykjavik, Naples, and Catania, four urban areas prone to earthquake disasters.
    Description: Urban disaster Prevention Strategies using MAcroseismic Fields and FAult Sources -UPStrat-MAFA, Grant Agreement N. 23031/2011/613486/SUB/A5
    Description: Published
    Description: 2069–2086
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: disasters prevention, risk education, risk reduction, seismic hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
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    Development of the Global Earthquake Model’s neotectonic fault database (2015)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-14
    Description: The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) aims to develop uniform, openly available, standards, datasets and tools for worldwide seismic risk assessment through global collaboration, transparent communication and adapting state-of-the-art science. GEM Faulted Earth (GFE) is one of GEM’s global hazard module projects. This paper describes GFE’s development of a modern neotectonic fault database and a unique graphical interface for the compilation of new fault data. A key design principle is that of an electronic field notebook for capturing observations a geologist would make about a fault. The database is designed to accommodate abundant as well as sparse fault obser- vations. It features two layers, one for capturing neotectonic faults and fold observations, and the other to calculate potential earthquake fault sources from the observations. In order to test the flexibility of the database structure and to start a global compilation, five preexisting databases have been uploaded to the first layer and two to the second. In addition, the GFE project has characterised the world’s approximately 55,000 km of subduction interfaces in a globally consistent manner as a basis for generating earthquake event sets for inclusion in earthquake hazard and risk modelling. Following the subduction interface fault schema and including the trace attributes of the GFE database schema, the 2500-km-long frontal thrust fault system of the Himalaya has also been characterised. We propose the database structure to be used widely, so that neotectonic fault data can make a more complete and beneficial contribution to seismic hazard and risk characterisation globally.
    Description: Published
    Description: 111–135
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: 4IT. Banche dati
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Global Earthquake Model ; Fault database ; Earthquake fault source ; GEM Faulted Earth ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.02. Seismological data
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
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    Seismic hazard assessment in the volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Italy): a probabilistic approach based on macroseismic data applied to volcano-tectonic seismicity (2015)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: In the framework of the UPStrat-MAFA project, a seismic hazard assessment has been undertaken in the volcanic region of Mt. Etna as a first step in studies aimed at evaluating the risk on an urban scale. The analysis has been carried out with the SASHA code which uses macroseismic data in order to calculate, starting from the site seismic history, the maximum intensity value expected in a given site with a probability of exceedance of 10 % (Iref), for a fixed exposure time. Depending on the aims of the project, hazard is estimated for local volcano-tectonic seismicity and short exposure times (10 and 30 years), without taking into account the contribution of ‘‘regional’’ events characterized by much longer recurrence times. Results from tasks A, B and D of the project have produced an updated macroseismic dataset, better performing attenuation models and new tools for SASHA, respectively. The maps obtained indicate that the eastern flank of Etna, the most urbanized sector of the volcano, is characterized by a high level of hazard with Iref values up to degree VIII EMS, and even IX EMS locally. The disaggregated data analysis allows recognizing the ‘‘design earthquake’’ and the seismogenic fault which most contribute to the hazard at a site-scale. The latter analysis is the starting point to select the scenario earthquake to be used in the analyses of tasks C and F of the project dealing with, respectively, synthetic ground motion simulations and the evaluation of the Disruption Index.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1813–1825
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Volcano-tectonic earthquakes ; Macroseismic intensity ; Seismic history ; Attenuation models ; Exceedance probability ; Seismic hazard ; Mt. Etna ; Italy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
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    Site effects in the Aterno River Valley (L’Aquila, Italy): comparison between empirical and 2D numerical modelling starting from April 6th 2009 Mw 6.3 earthquake (2015)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-12-13
    Description: In this paper, we focused our attention on a cross-section of the Aterno River Valley where a good quality geological and geophysical dataset allowed to reconstruct accurately the geometry and the Vs profiles along all the plane of the section. Its trace is deliberately aligned close to the strong motion stations that recorded the Mw 6.3 (April 6th 2009) L’Aquila earthquake. We analysed strong and weak motion data available at these latter stations as well as at one of the temporary stations installed during the Microzonation activities and located on outcropping bedrock, in proximity of the cross-section. We used the H/V technique to select a reliable reference site and once we found it, we applied the SSR technique to compute amplification functions in correspondence of two strong motion stations. In turn, for both sites we performed a site response numerical modelling with two different 2D codes and we compared simulated versus experimental transfer functions. We found that the cross-section is well constrained based on the very reasonable agreement between results of numerical modelling and earthquake data analysis. We pointed out also a strong amplification of the deposit at the centre of the valley due to the constructive interference of S and surface waves, not predictable by means of 1D numerical modelling. We also compared the H/V as well as the SSR obtained from strong motion data with the ones computed from weak motion finding evidences of non-linearity in soil behaviour.
    Description: Published
    Description: 697–716
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Site effects · ; 2D numerical modelling ; Standard spectral ratio ; Non-linear soil behaviour ; Near-fault records ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
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    Scoring and Testing Procedures Devoted to Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (2015)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: This review addresses long-term (tens of years) seismic ground-motion forecasting (seismic hazard assessment) in the presence of alternative computational models (the so-called epistemic uncertainty affecting hazard estimates). We review the different approaches that have been proposed to manage epistemic uncertainty in the context of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Ex-ante procedures (based on the combination of expert judgments about inherent characteristics of the PSHA model) and expost approaches (based on empirical comparison of model outcomes and observations) should not be considered as mutually exclusive alternatives but can be combined in a coherent Bayesian view. Therefore, we propose a procedure that allows a better exploitation of available PSHA models to obtain comprehensive estimates, which account for both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty. We also discuss the respective roles of empirical ex-post scoring and testing of alternative models concurring in the development of comprehensive hazard maps. In order to show how the proposed procedure may work, we also present a tentative application to the Italian area. In particular, four PSHA models are evaluated ex-post against macroseismic effects actually observed in a large set of Italian municipalities during the time span 1957–2006. This analysis shows that, when the whole Italian area is considered, all the models provide estimates that do not agree with the observations. However, two of them provide results that are compatible with observations, when a subregion of Italy (Apulia Region) is considered. By focusing on this area, we computed a comprehensive hazard curve for a single locality in order to show the feasibility of the proposed procedure.
    Description: Published
    Description: 269–293
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Seismic hazard ; PSHA ; Testing ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 11
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    Modeling the 2004 Sumatra tsunami at Seychelles Islands: site-effect analysis and comparison with observations (2014)
    Springer Netherlands | Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Mw = 9.1 mega-thrust Sumatra–Andaman earthquake that occurred on December 26, 2004, was followed by a devastating tsunami that killed hundreds of thousands of people and caused catastrophic effects on human settlements and environments along many coasts of the Indian Ocean, where even countries very far from the source were affected. One of these cases is represented by the Republic of Seychelles, where the tsunami reached the region about 7 h after the earthquake and produced relevant damages, despite the country was more than 4,500 km far from the seismic source. In the present work, we present and discuss a study of the 2004 Sumatra tsunami by means of numerical simulations with the attention focused on the effects observed at the Seychelles Archipelago, a region never previously investigated with this approach. The case is interesting since these islands lay on a very shallow oceanic platform with steep slopes so as the ocean depth changes from thousands to few tens of meters over short distances, with significant effects on the tsunami propagation features: the waves are strongly refracted by the oceanic platform and the tsunami signal is modified by the introduction of additional frequencies. The study is used also to validate the UBO-TSUFD numerical code on a real tsunami event in the far field, and the results are compared with the available observations, i.e., the sea level time series recorded at the Pointe La Rue station, Mahe ́ Island, and run-up measurements and inundation lines surveyed few weeks after the tsunami at Praslin Island, where the tsunami hit during low tide. Synthetic results are found in good agreement with observations, even though some of the observations remain not fully solved. Moreover, simulations have been run in high-tide condition since the 2004 Sumatra tsunami hitting at high tide can be taken as the worst-case scenario for the Seychelles islands and used for tsunami hazard and risk assessments
    Description: Published
    Description: 1507–1525
    Description: 4T. Fisica dei terremoti e scenari cosismici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Tsunami; Numerical modeling; Indian Ocean; Tsunami scenarios ; 05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 12
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    A study of damage scenarios for residential buildings in Catania city (2014)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The main purpose of this study is to obtain the damage scenario for residential buildings in the occurrence of a destructive earthquake (M= 7+) in the city area of Catania, Eastern Sicily, and to illustrate the comparative performance of two alternative methods used for this purpose. The methods are representative of two different approaches to estimating the seismic vulnerability of structures, i.e., an empirical approach based on statistical score assignments (widely used in Italy and other countries) and a more recent, mechanical approach that uses displacement limit states associated with well-defined thresholds of structural damage. A special concern for seismic vulnerability in Catania is caused by the fact that earthquake design norms were enforced in its municipal area only since 1981. We emphasise some typical problems encountered in earthquake scenario work, such as the difficulty of assembling a reliable building inventory, and the uncertainties inherent in the vulnerability assessments through different probabilistic assumptions. Different criteria for the representation of damage are applied and discussed. It is shown that the main scenarios obtained by the two methods are in reasonable agreement, provided a suitable percentile level for damage is chosen in the statistical score assignment approach.
    Description: Published
    Description: 327-343
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: building inventory ; damage distribution ; displacement limit states ; earthquake scenario ; ground shaking maps ; vulnerability index ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 13
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    Engineering assessment of seismic hazard and long period ground motions at the Bolu Viaduct Site following the November 1999 earthquake (2014)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The Mw 7.1 earthquake of November 12, 1999 severely damaged a 2.5 km long viaduct on a stretch under construction of the Istanbul-Ankara motorway, 18 km W of Bolu. The fault rupture crossed the viaduct with an observed offset close to 1.5 m; the viaduct deck suffered large permanent displacements but did not collapse. Seismic hazard at the site appears to be governed by characteristic earthquakes occurring every few hundred years both on the Düzce fault and on the main stretch of North Anatolian fault (NAF). Smaller active faults near the site also contribute to the hazard. We investigate how a reliable design response spectrum of displacement can be constructed for the viaduct site using both probabilistic and deterministic tools. After checking the applicability of known attenuation relations against recorded data, we illustrate a hazard analysis that incorporates a characteristic earthquake model for the relevant faults, and accounts for statistical directivity effects on the Düzce fault. Constantrisk response spectra up to 3 s are thus obtained for different return periods. Synthetic motions at the site are generated next, using a known source model, in order to explore the features of the displacement response spectrum at vibration periods in the range between 1s and 6 s, in which the dominant response of the viaduct deck, uncoupled from the piers, occurs. A discussion of results follows.
    Description: Published
    Description: 307-327
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: 1999 Turkey earthquakes ; bridge retrofitting ; characteristic earthquake ; displacement response spectrum ; long period ground motion ; source directivity ; seismic hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 14
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    Shakemaps uncertainties and their effects in the post-seismic actions for the 2012 Emilia (Italy) earthquakes (2014)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The May 20, 2012, Emilia Ml 5.9 earthquake was followed by some major aftershocks, well recorded by a large number of temporary stations that were installed to monitor the sequence. These additional recordings allowed us a thorough testing of the performance of the ShakeMap—a procedure designed to provide rapid information on the experienced ground motion. We found that the shakemaps for the May 29, 2012, Ml 5.8 earthquake, obtained using the permanent stations only, underestimate significantly the ground motion computed with the highest station density, especially for PSA at long periods (T=3.0 s). This low-frequency motion is controlled primarily by the surface waves recorded in the Po plain: the observed site effects are likely not accounted properly by the site correction coefficient based on Vs30 as implemented in the ShakeMap procedure. The shakemaps determined during the seismic sequence have been included in an Italian national law that was passed after the 2012 earthquake. According to this law, the factories safety verifications were bound to the comparison between the shakemaps and the design acceleration required by the current national seismic code.We then decide to appraise the impact of the shakemap accuracy on the law provisions. Following the law ecommendations, we have estimated the possible errors resulting from the incomplete evaluation of the ground shaking: our results show that, if the complete dataset were available at the time of the law approval, the number of buildings for which the safety check was required would have been significantly smaller.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2147-2164
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: 5T. Sorveglianza sismica e operatività post-terremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Emilia earthquake ; Shakemap ; Strong ground motion ; Seismic hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.06. Surveys, measurements, and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 15
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    Impact on loss/risk assessments of inter-model variability in vulnerability analysis (2013)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-18
    Description: Fragility curves (FCs) constitute an emerging tool for the seismic risk assessment of all elements at risk. They express the probability of a structure being damaged beyond a specific damage state for a given seismic input motion parameter, incorporating the most important sources of uncertainties, that is, seismic demand, capacity and definition of damage states. Nevertheless, the implementation of FCs in loss/risk assessments introduces other important sources of uncertainty, related to the usually limited knowledge about the elements at risk (e.g., inventory, typology). In this paper, within a Bayesian framework, it is developed a general methodology to combine into a single model (Bayesian combined model, BCM) the information provided by multiple FC models, weighting them according to their credibility/ applicability, and independent past data. This combination enables to efficiently capture inter-model variability (IMV) and to propagate it into risk/loss assessments, allowing the treatment of a large spectrum of vulnerability-related uncertainties, usually neglected. As case study, FCs for shallow tunnels in alluvial deposits, when subjected to transversal seismic loading, are developed with two conventional procedures, based on a quasi-static numerical approach. Noteworthy, loss/risk assessments resulting from such conventional methods show significant unexpected differences. Conventional fragilities are then combined in a Bayesian framework, in which also probability values are treated as random variables, characterized by their probability density functions. The results show that BCM efficiently projects the whole variability of input models into risk/loss estimations. This demonstrates that BCM is a suitable framework to treat IMV in vulnerability assessments, in a straightforward and explicit manner.
    Description: Published
    Description: 723-746
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Fragility curves ; Bayesian approach ; Epistemic uncertainty ; Inter-model variability ; Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 16
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    A reappraisal of seismic Q evaluated in Campi Flegrei caldera. Receipt for the application to risk analysis (2013)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The civil defense of Italy and the European community have planned to reformulate the volcanic risk in several volcanic areas of Italy, among which Mt. Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, by taking into account the possible occurrence of damaging pre- or syn-eruptive seismic events. Necessary to achieve this goal is the detailed knowledge of the local attenuation–distance relations. In the present note, we make a survey of the estimates of seismic quality factor (the inverse is proportional to the attenuation coefficient with distance) reported in literature for the area of Campi Flegrei where many, but sometimes contradictory results have been published on this topic. We try to review these results in order to give indications for their correct use when calculating the attenuation laws for this area.
    Description: SPEED, 2007–2009, (DPC-INGV Agreement, http://www.ingv.it.) European Community Project UPStrat-MAFA, http://upstrat-mafa.ov.ingv.it/ UPStrat/.
    Description: Published
    Description: 829-837
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: 4.4. Scenari e mitigazione del rischio ambientale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Seismic Attenuation ; Seismic Risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 17
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    Long-term multi-risk assessment: statistical treatment of interaction among risks (2013)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Multi-risk approaches have been recently proposed to assess and compare different risks in the same target area. The key points of multi-risk assessment are the development of homogeneous risk definitions and the treatment of risk interaction. The lack of treatment of interaction may lead to significant biases and thus to erroneous risk hierarchization, which is one of primary output of risk assessments for decision makers. In this paper, a formal statistical model is developed to treat interaction between two different hazardous phenomena in long-term multi-risk assessments, accounting for possible effects of interaction at hazard, vulnerability and exposure levels. The applicability of the methodology is demonstrated through two illustrative examples, dealing with the influence of (1) volcanic ash in seismic risk and (2) local earthquakes in tsunami risk. In these applications, the bias in single-risk estimation induced by the assumption of independence among risks is explicitly assessed. An extensive application of this methodology at regional and sub-regional scale would allow to identify when and where a given interaction has significant effects in long-term risk assessments, and thus, it should be considered in multi-risk analyses and risks hierarchization.
    Description: Published
    Description: 701-722
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Multi-risk ; Multi-hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 18
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    Toward a ground-motion logic tree for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Europe (2012)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-15
    Description: The Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project, which began in June 2009, aims at establishing new standards for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the Euro-Mediterranean region. In this context, a logic tree for ground-motion prediction in Europe has been constructed. Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and weights have been determined so that the logic tree captures epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction for six different tectonic regimes in Europe. Here we present the strategy that we adopted to build such a logic tree. This strategy has the particularity of combining two complementary and independent approaches: expert judgment and data testing. A set of six experts was asked to weight pre-selected GMPEs while the ability of these GMPEs to predict available data was evaluated with the method of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:3234–3247, 2009). Results of both approaches were taken into account to commonly select the smallest set of GMPEs to capture the uncertainty in ground-motion prediction in Europe. For stable continental regions, two models, both from eastern North America, have been selected for shields, and three GMPEs from active shallow crustal regions have been added for continental crust. For subduction zones, four models, all non-European, have been chosen. Finally, for active shallow crustal regions, we selected four models, each of them from a different host region but only two of them were kept for long periods. In most cases, a common agreement has been also reached for the weights. In case of divergence, a sensitivity analysis of the weights on the seismic hazard has been conducted, showing that once the GMPEs have been selected, the associated set of weights has a smaller influence on the hazard.
    Description: EC-Research Framework programme FP7, Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe, contract number 226967.
    Description: Published
    Description: 451-473
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: GMPE ; logic tree ; seismic hazard ; SHARE ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 19
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    Basic principles of multi-risk assessment: a case study in Italy (2012)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-05
    Description: The assessment of the impact of different catastrophic events in a given area requires innovative approaches that allow risks comparison and that account for all the possible risk interactions. In the common practice, the risk evaluation related to different sources is generally done through independent analyses, adopting disparate procedures and time–space resolutions. Such a strategy of risks evaluation has some evident major drawbacks as, for example, it is difficult (if not impossible) to compare the risk of different origins, and the implicit assumption of independence of the risk sources leads to neglect possible interactions among threats and/or cascade effects. The latter may amplify the overall risk, and potentially the multi-risk index could be higher than the simple aggre- gation of single-risk indexes calculated considering each source as independent from the others. In this paper, we put forward some basic principles for multi-risk assessment, and we consider a real application to Casalnuovo municipality (Southern Italy), in which we face the problem to make different hazards comparable, and we highlight when and how possible interactions among different threats may become important.
    Description: FP6 European project NaRaS; FP7 European project MATRIX
    Description: Published
    Description: 551-573
    Description: 4.4. Scenari e mitigazione del rischio ambientale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: multi-risk assessment ; hazard interaction ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.04. Statistical analysis ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.01. Environmental risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 20
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    Building damage scenarios based on exploitation of Housner intensity derived from finite faults ground motion simulations (2012)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this paper earthquake damage scenarios for residential buildings (about 4200 units) in Potenza (Southern Italy) have been estimated adopting a novel probabilistic approach that involves complex source models, site effects, building vulnerability assessment and damage estimation through Damage Probability Matrices. Several causative faults of single seismic events, with magnitude up to 7, are known to be close to the town. A seismic hazard approach based on finite faults ground motion simulation techniques has been used to identify the sources producing the maximum expected ground motion at Potenza and to generate a set of ground motion time histories to be adopted for building damage scenarios. Additionally, site effects, evaluated in a previouswork through amplification factors of Housner intensity, have been combined with the bedrock values provided by hazard assessment. Furthermore, a new relationship between Housner and EMS-98 macroseismic intensity has been developed. This relationship has been used to convert the probability mass functions of Housner intensity obtained from synthetic seismograms amplified by the site effects coefficients into probability mass function of EMS-98 intensity. Finally, the Damage Probability Matrices have been applied to estimate the damage levels of the residential buildings located in the urban area of Potenza. The proposed methodology returns the full probabilistic distribution of expected damage, thus avoiding average damage index or uncertainties expressed in term of dispersion indexes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 517-545
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: bulding damage ; ground motion simulation ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 21
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    Historical tsunamis in the Adriatic Sea (2012)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Abstract Tsunami activity in the Adriatic Sea from the sixteenth century until the present has been analysed with the ultimate goal to improve the European tsunami catalogue and provide data for a new geo-database of tsunami events in the European-Mediterranean region. The study encompasses twenty-seven events, nine on the western and eighteen on the eastern coast of the Adriatic, with special attention being devoted to contemporary sources and to local journals and newspapers. For all the analysed events, the path of information from coeval sources, through the nineteenth century and up to modern tsunami catalogues, has been constructed. Tsunamis on the western coast have already been studied, but to obtain a coherent picture of tsunamigenic activity in the Adriatic Sea, they have been included in this work. Furthermore, the study was extended to see whether they had propagated to the opposite coast. Most of the events on the eastern coast have now been systematically analysed for the first time. The search of bibliographical sources revealed three new reports on tsunamis on the eastern coast that had not been previously recorded in international publications. The study established that, out of the eighteen eastern Adriatic events, twelve can be considered false, while six were true tsunamis. In the last 600 years, fifteen true tsunami events occurred in the Adriatic. One was very strong, six were strong or rather strong, and eight were light tsunamis. As a final result of this analysis, carried out according to standardised criteria, fifteen Adriatic tsunami events will be inserted in the TRANSFER (Tsunami Risk ANd Strategies For the European Region) database for the European-Mediterranean region.
    Description: The research was funded by the EU through the TRANSFER project and by the Ministry of Science, Education and Sports of the Republic of Croatia (grant 119-1193086-3085).
    Description: Published
    Description: 281–316
    Description: 1.8. Osservazioni di geofisica ambientale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: historical tsunamis ; catalogue ; Adriatic Sea ; 05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 22
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    High-frequency maximum observable shaking map of Italy from fault sources (2012)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We present a strategy for obtaining fault-based maximum observable shaking (MOS) maps, which represent an innovative concept for assessing deterministic seismic ground motion at a regional scale. Our approach uses the fault sources supplied for Italy by the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources, and particularly by its composite seismogenic sources (CSS), a spatially continuous simplified 3-D representation of a fault system. For each CSS, we consider the associated Typical Fault, i.e., the portion of the corresponding CSS that can generate the maximum credible earthquake. We then compute the high-frequency (1–50 Hz) ground shaking for a rupture model derived from its associated maximum credible earthquake. As the Typical Fault floats within its CSS to occupy all possible positions of the rupture, the high-frequency shaking is updated in the area surrounding the fault, and the maximum from that scenario is extracted and displayed on a map. The final high-frequency MOS map of Italy is then obtained by merging 8,859 individual scenario-simulations, from which the ground shaking parameters have been extracted. To explore the internal consistency of our calculations and validate the results of the procedure we compare our results (1) with predictions based on the Next Generation Attenuation ground-motion equations for an earthquake of Mw 7.1, (2) with the predictions of the official Italian seismic hazard map, and (3) with macroseismic intensities included in the DBMI04 Italian database. We then examine the uncertainties and analyse the variability of ground motion for different fault geometries and slip distributions.
    Description: Italian Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri, Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC), in the framework of the 2007-2009 Agreement with Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia—DPC-INGV, Project S1.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1075-1107
    Description: 4.1. Metodologie sismologiche per l'ingegneria sismica
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: seismogenic source ; earthquake ; ground shaking ; seismic hazard ; Italy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.04. Ground motion ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 23
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    The SHARE European Earthquake Catalogue (SHEEC) 1000-1899 (2012)
    Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-09-08
    Description: In the frame of the European Commission project “Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe” (SHARE), aiming at harmonizing seismic hazard at a European scale, the compilation of a homogeneous, European parametric earthquake catalogue was planned. The goal was to be achieved by considering the most updated historical dataset and assessing homogenous magnitudes, with support from several institutions. This paper describes the SHARE European Earthquake Catalogue (SHEEC), which covers the time-window 1000-1899. It strongly relies on the experience of the European Commission project “Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology” (NERIES), a module of which was dedicated to create the European “Archive of Historical Earthquake Data” (AHEAD) and to establish methodologies to homogenously derive earthquake parameters from macroseismic data. AHEAD has supplied the final earthquake list, obtained after sorting duplications out and eliminating many fake events, and the most updated historical dataset. Macroseismic data points (MDPs) provided by AHEAD have been processed with updated, repeatable procedures, regionally calibrated against a set of recent, instrumental earthquakes, to obtain earthquake parameters. From the same data, a set of epicentral intensity-to-magnitude relations has been derived, with the aim of providing another set of homogeneous Mw estimates. Then, a strategy focussed on maximizing the homogeneity of the final epicentral location and Mw, has been adopted. Special care has been devoted also to supply location and Mw uncertainty. The paper focuses on the procedure adopted for the compilation of SHEEC and briefly comments on the achieved results.
    Description: EC-Research Framework programme FP7, Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe, Grant Agreement No. 226769
    Description: Published
    Description: 523-544
    Description: 5.1. TTC - Banche dati e metodi macrosismici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: earthquake catalogue ; Europe ; earthquake parameters ; magnitude ; parameters uncertainty ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 24
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    Blackening of Pompeian Cinnabar paintings: X-ray micro-spectroscopy analysis (2007)
    American Chemical Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Red Pompeian paintings, very famous for their deep intensity, are currently suffering from darkening. The origins of this darkening degradation are not clearly identified yet and remain a major issue for curators. In the specific case of cinnabar (HgS)-based red pigment, a photoinduced conversion into black metacinnabar is usually suspected. This work is focused on the blackening of red cinnabar paintings coated on a sparry calcite mortar. Different samples exhibiting different levels of degradation were selected upon visual observations and analyzed by synchrotron-based microanalytical techniques. Atomic and molecular compositions of the different debased regions revealed two possible degradation mechanisms. On one hand, micro X-ray fluorescence elemental maps show peculiar distributions of chlorine and sulfur. On the other hand, X-ray absorption spectroscopy performed at both Cl and S K-edges confirms the presence of characteristic degradation products: (i) Hg- Cl compounds (e.g., corderoite, calomel, and terlinguaite), which may result from the reaction with exogenous NaCl, in gray areas; (ii) gypsum, produced by the calcite sulfation, in black coatings. Metacinnabar is never detected. Finally, a cross section was analyzed to map the in-depth alteration gradient. Reduced and oxidized sulfur distributions reveal that the sulfated black coating consists of a 5-ím-thick layer covering intact cinnabar.
    Description: Published
    Description: 7484-7492
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Microspectroscopy Analysis ; 05. General::05.09. Miscellaneous::05.09.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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