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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2016-02-25
    Description: In this article, we present a time-independent earthquake rate forecast for California. Our model features spatial variations of the Gutenberg–Richter b -value using the method of Kamer and Hiemer (2015) . We account for lessons learned from the outcome of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) experiment and use RELM’s framework to investigate different concepts for modeling the spatial distribution of seismicity. Our resulting forecast shows a significant information gain with respect to all first-generation RELM mainshock forecasts. Our findings indicate that large-scale b -value variations are a considerable feature for increasing the skill of Californian seismicity forecasts. We underline the importance of statistical rigor when implementing earthquake occurrence hypotheses. Our results have implications for seismic hazard studies, in which the b -value is either chosen as a regional constant or varies spatially between local zones. Future improvements of our model may serve as a basis for choosing either of these approaches.
    Print ISSN: 0895-0695
    Electronic ISSN: 1938-2057
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2014-07-03
    Description: We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates ( a - and b -value) of the truncated Gutenberg–Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project ‘Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe’ (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE's area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model's forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for testing periods of 10–20 yr. The testing results suggest that our model is a viable candidate model to serve for long-term forecasting on timescales of years to decades for the European region.
    Keywords: Seismology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2014-06-30
    Description: We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates ( a - and b -value) of the truncated Gutenberg–Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project ‘Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe’ (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE's area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model's forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for testing periods of 10–20 yr. The testing results suggest that our model is a viable candidate model to serve for long-term forecasting on timescales of years to decades for the European region.
    Keywords: Seismology
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft (DGG) and the Royal Astronomical Society (RAS).
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2013-03-22
    Description: We present a testable stochastic earthquake source model for intermediate- to long-term forecasts. The model is based on fundamental observations: the frequency-magnitude distribution, slip rates on major faults, long-term strain rates, and source parameter values of instrumentally recorded and historic earthquakes. The basic building blocks of the model are two pairs of probability density maps. The first pair consists of smoothed seismicity and weighted focal mechanisms based on observed earthquakes. The second pair corresponds to mapped faults and their slip rates and consists of smoothed moment-rate and weighted focal mechanisms based on fault geometry. We construct from the model a "stochastic event set," that is to say, a large set of simulated earthquakes that are relevant for seismic hazard calculations and earthquake forecast development. Their complete descriptions are determined in the following order: magnitude, epicenter, moment tensor, length, displacement, and down-dip width. Our approach assures by construction that the simulated magnitudes are consistent with the observed frequency-magnitude distribution. We employ a magnitude-dependent weighting procedure that tends to place the largest simulated earthquakes near major faults with consistent focal mechanisms. Nevertheless, our stochastic model allows for surprises such as large off-fault earthquakes, events that comply with the observation that several recent destructive earthquakes occurred on previously unknown fault structures. We apply our model to California to illustrate its features.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2011-05-01
    Print ISSN: 0895-0695
    Electronic ISSN: 1938-2057
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2014-06-27
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2013-03-21
    Description: We present a testable stochastic earthquake source model for intermediate- to long-term forecasts. The model is based on fundamental observations: the frequency-magnitude distribution, slip rates on major faults, long-term strain rates, and source parameter values of instrumentally recorded and historic earthquakes. The basic building blocks of the model are two pairs of probability density maps. The first pair consists of smoothed seismicity and weighted focal mechanisms based on observed earthquakes. The second pair corresponds to mapped faults and their slip rates and consists of smoothed moment-rate and weighted focal mechanisms based on fault geometry. We construct from the model a "stochastic event set," that is to say, a large set of simulated earthquakes that are relevant for seismic hazard calculations and earthquake forecast development. Their complete descriptions are determined in the following order: magnitude, epicenter, moment tensor, length, displacement, and down-dip width. Our approach assures by construction that the simulated magnitudes are consistent with the observed frequency-magnitude distribution. We employ a magnitude-dependent weighting procedure that tends to place the largest simulated earthquakes near major faults with consistent focal mechanisms. Nevertheless, our stochastic model allows for surprises such as large off-fault earthquakes, events that comply with the observation that several recent destructive earthquakes occurred on previously unknown fault structures. We apply our model to California to illustrate its features.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2020-12-15
    Description: We present a time-independent gridded earthquake rate forecast for the European region including Turkey. The spatial component of our model is based on kernel density estimation techniques, which we applied to both past earthquake locations and fault moment release on mapped crustal faults and subduction zone interfaces with assigned slip rates. Our forecast relies on the assumption that the locations of past seismicity is a good guide to future seismicity, and that future large-magnitude events occur more likely in the vicinity of known faults. We show that the optimal weighted sum of the corresponding two spatial densities depends on the magnitude range considered. The kernel bandwidths and density weighting function are optimized using retrospective likelihood-based forecast experiments. We computed earthquake activity rates (a- and b-value) of the truncated Gutenberg–Richter distribution separately for crustal and subduction seismicity based on a maximum likelihood approach that considers the spatial and temporal completeness history of the catalogue. The final annual rate of our forecast is purely driven by the maximum likelihood fit of activity rates to the catalogue data, whereas its spatial component incorporates contributions from both earthquake and fault moment-rate densities. Our model constitutes one branch of the earthquake source model logic tree of the 2013 European seismic hazard model released by the EU-FP7 project ‘Seismic HAzard haRmonization in Europe’ (SHARE) and contributes to the assessment of epistemic uncertainties in earthquake activity rates. We performed retrospective and pseudo-prospective likelihood consistency tests to underline the reliability of our model and SHARE’s area source model (ASM) using the testing algorithms applied in the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictability (CSEP). We comparatively tested our model’s forecasting skill against the ASM and find a statistically significant better performance for testing periods of 10–20 yr. The testing results suggest that our model is a viable candidate model to serve for long-term forecasting on timescales of years to decades for the European region.
    Description: EC-Research FP7-projects, SHARE, under grant agreement No. 226967 and NERA, under grant agreement No. 262330
    Description: Published
    Description: 1159-1172
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Probabilistic forecasting ; Statistical seismology ; Europe ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-09-08
    Description: The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13) results from a community-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment supported by the EU-FP7 project “Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe” (SHARE, 2009–2013). The ESHM13 is a consistent seismic hazard model for Europe and Turkey which overcomes the limitation of national borders and includes a through quantification of the uncertainties. It is the first completed regional effort contributing to the “Global Earthquake Model” initiative. It might serve as a reference model for various applications, from earthquake preparedness to earthquake risk mitigation strategies, including the update of the European seismic regulations for building design (Eurocode 8), and thus it is useful for future safety assessment and improvement of private and public buildings. Although its results constitute a reference for Europe, they do not replace the existing national design regulations that are in place for seismic design and construction of buildings. The ESHM13 represents a significant improvement compared to previous efforts as it is based on (1) the compilation of updated and harmonised versions of the databases required for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, (2) the adoption of standard procedures and robust methods, especially for expert elicitation and consensus building among hundreds of European experts, (3) the multi-disciplinary input from all branches of earthquake science and engineering, (4) the direct involvement of the CEN/TC250/SC8 committee in defining output specifications relevant for Eurocode 8 and (5) the accounting for epistemic uncertainties of model components and hazard results. Furthermore, enormous effort was devoted to transparently document and ensure open availability of all data, results and methods through the European Facility for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.​efehr.​org).
    Description: Published
    Description: 3553-3596
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment ; Uncertainty analysis ; Earthquake engineering ; Logic-tree ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.02. Seismological data
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2020-02-12
    Keywords: 550 - Earth sciences
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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