ALBERT

Description: We describe the historical evolution of the conceptualization, formulation, quantification, application, and utilization of “radiative forcing” (RF) of Earth’s climate. Basic theories of shortwave and longwave radiation were developed through the nineteenth and twentieth centuries and established the analytical framework for defining and quantifying the perturbations to Earth’s radiative energy balance by natural and anthropogenic influences. The insight that Earth’s climate could be radiatively forced by changes in carbon dioxide, first introduced in the nineteenth century, gained empirical support with sustained observations of the atmospheric concentrations of the gas beginning in 1957. Advances in laboratory and field measurements, theory, instrumentation, computational technology, data, and analysis of well-mixed greenhouse gases and the global climate system through the twentieth century enabled the development and formalism of RF; this allowed RF to be related to changes in global-mean surface temperature with the aid of increasingly sophisticated models. This in turn led to RF becoming firmly established as a principal concept in climate science by 1990. The linkage with surface temperature has proven to be the most important application of the RF concept, enabling a simple metric to evaluate the relative climate impacts of different agents. The late 1970s and 1980s saw accelerated developments in quantification, including the first assessment of the effect of the forcing due to the doubling of carbon dioxide on climate (the “Charney” report). The concept was subsequently extended to a wide variety of agents beyond well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs; carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and halocarbons) to short-lived species such as ozone. The WMO and IPCC international assessments began the important sequence of periodic evaluations and quantifications of the forcings by natural (solar irradiance changes and stratospheric aerosols resulting from volcanic eruptions) and a growing set of anthropogenic agents (WMGHGs, ozone, aerosols, land surface changes, contrails). From the 1990s to the present, knowledge and scientific confidence in the radiative agents acting on the climate system have proliferated. The conceptual basis of RF has also evolved as both our understanding of the way radiative forcing drives climate change and the diversity of the forcing mechanisms have grown. This has led to the current situation where “effective radiative forcing” (ERF) is regarded as the preferred practical definition of radiative forcing in order to better capture the link between forcing and global-mean surface temperature change. The use of ERF, however, comes with its own attendant issues, including challenges in its diagnosis from climate models, its applications to small forcings, and blurring of the distinction between rapid climate adjustments (fast responses) and climate feedbacks; this will necessitate further elaboration of its utility in the future. Global climate model simulations of radiative perturbations by various agents have established how the forcings affect other climate variables besides temperature (e.g., precipitation). The forcing–response linkage as simulated by models, including the diversity in the spatial distribution of forcings by the different agents, has provided a practical demonstration of the effectiveness of agents in perturbing the radiative energy balance and causing climate changes. The significant advances over the past half century have established, with very high confidence, that the global-mean ERF due to human activity since preindustrial times is positive (the 2013 IPCC assessment gives a best estimate of 2.3 W m−2, with a range from 1.1 to 3.3 W m−2; 90% confidence interval). Further, except in the immediate aftermath of climatically significant volcanic eruptions, the net anthropogenic forcing dominates over natural radiative forcing mechanisms. Nevertheless, the substantial remaining uncertainty in the net anthropogenic ERF leads to large uncertainties in estimates of climate sensitivity from observations and in predicting future climate impacts. The uncertainty in the ERF arises principally from the incorporation of the rapid climate adjustments in the formulation, the well-recognized difficulties in characterizing the preindustrial state of the atmosphere, and the incomplete knowledge of the interactions of aerosols with clouds. This uncertainty impairs the quantitative evaluation of climate adaptation and mitigation pathways in the future. A grand challenge in Earth system science lies in continuing to sustain the relatively simple essence of the radiative forcing concept in a form similar to that originally devised, and at the same time improving the quantification of the forcing. This, in turn, demands an accurate, yet increasingly complex and comprehensive, accounting of the relevant processes in the climate system.

Description: Today’s global Earth system models began as simple regional models of tropospheric weather systems. Over the past century, the physical realism of the models has steadily increased, while the scope of the models has broadened to include the global troposphere and stratosphere, the ocean, the vegetated land surface, and terrestrial ice sheets. This chapter gives an approximately chronological account of the many and profound conceptual and technological advances that made today’s models possible. For brevity, we omit any discussion of the roles of chemistry and biogeochemistry, and terrestrial ice sheets.

Description: This chapter reviews the history of the discovery of cloud nuclei and their impacts on cloud microphysics and the climate system. Pioneers including John Aitken, Sir John Mason, Hilding Köhler, Christian Junge, Sean Twomey, and Kenneth Whitby laid the foundations of the field. Through their contributions and those of many others, rapid progress has been made in the last 100 years in understanding the sources, evolution, and composition of the atmospheric aerosol, the interactions of particles with atmospheric water vapor, and cloud microphysical processes. Major breakthroughs in measurement capabilities and in theoretical understanding have elucidated the characteristics of cloud condensation nuclei and ice nucleating particles and the role these play in shaping cloud microphysical properties and the formation of precipitation. Despite these advances, not all their impacts on cloud formation and evolution have been resolved. The resulting radiative forcing on the climate system due to aerosol–cloud interactions remains an unacceptably large uncertainty in future climate projections. Process-level understanding of aerosol–cloud interactions remains insufficient to support technological mitigation strategies such as intentional weather modification or geoengineering to accelerating Earth-system-wide changes in temperature and weather patterns.

Description: Over the past 100 years, the collaborative effort of the international science community, including government weather services and the media, along with the associated proliferation of environmental observations, improved scientific understanding, and growth of technology, has radically transformed weather forecasting into an effective global and regional environmental prediction capability. This chapter traces the evolution of forecasting, starting in 1919 [when the American Meteorological Society (AMS) was founded], over four eras separated by breakpoints at 1939, 1956, and 1985. The current state of forecasting could not have been achieved without essential collaboration within and among countries in pursuing the common weather and Earth-system prediction challenge. AMS itself has had a strong role in enabling this international collaboration.

Description: The year 1919 was important in meteorology, not only because it was the year that the American Meteorological Society was founded, but also for two other reasons. One of the foundational papers in extratropical cyclone structure by Jakob Bjerknes was published in 1919, leading to what is now known as the Norwegian cyclone model. Also that year, a series of meetings was held that led to the formation of organizations that promoted the international collaboration and scientific exchange required for extratropical cyclone research, which by necessity involves spatial scales spanning national borders. This chapter describes the history of scientific inquiry into the structure, evolution, and dynamics of extratropical cyclones, their constituent fronts, and their attendant jet streams and storm tracks. We refer to these phenomena collectively as the centerpiece of meteorology because of their central role in fostering meteorological research during this century. This extremely productive period in extratropical cyclone research has been possible because of 1) the need to address practical challenges of poor forecasts that had large socioeconomic consequences, 2) the intermingling of theory, observations, and diagnosis (including dynamical modeling) to provide improved physical understanding and conceptual models, and 3) strong international cooperation. Conceptual frameworks for cyclones arise from a desire to classify and understand cyclones; they include the Norwegian cyclone model and its sister the Shapiro–Keyser cyclone model. The challenge of understanding the dynamics of cyclones led to such theoretical frameworks as quasigeostrophy, baroclinic instability, semigeostrophy, and frontogenesis. The challenge of predicting explosive extratropical cyclones in particular led to new theoretical developments such as potential-vorticity thinking and downstream development. Deeper appreciation of the limits of predictability has resulted from an evolution from determinism to chaos. Last, observational insights led to detailed cyclone and frontal structure, storm tracks, and rainbands.

Description: Mountains significantly influence weather and climate on Earth, including disturbed surface winds; altered distribution of precipitation; gravity waves reaching the upper atmosphere; and modified global patterns of storms, fronts, jet streams, and climate. All of these impacts arise because Earth’s mountains penetrate deeply into the atmosphere. This penetration can be quantified by comparing mountain heights to several atmospheric reference heights such as density scale height, water vapor scale height, airflow blocking height, and the height of natural atmospheric layers. The geometry of Earth’s terrain can be analyzed quantitatively using statistical, matrix, and spectral methods. In this review, we summarize how our understanding of orographic effects has progressed over 100 years using the equations for atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics, numerical modeling, and many clever in situ and remote sensing methods. We explore how mountains disturb the surface winds on our planet, including mountaintop winds, severe downslope winds, barrier jets, gap jets, wakes, thermally generated winds, and cold pools. We consider the variety of physical mechanisms by which mountains modify precipitation patterns in different climate zones. We discuss the vertical propagation of mountain waves through the troposphere into the stratosphere, mesosphere, and thermosphere. Finally, we look at how mountains distort the global-scale westerly winds that circle the poles and how varying ice sheets and mountain uplift and erosion over geologic time may have contributed to climate change.

Description: The stratosphere contains ~17% of Earth’s atmospheric mass, but its existence was unknown until 1902. In the following decades our knowledge grew gradually as more observations of the stratosphere were made. In 1913 the ozone layer, which protects life from harmful ultraviolet radiation, was discovered. From ozone and water vapor observations, a first basic idea of a stratospheric general circulation was put forward. Since the 1950s our knowledge of the stratosphere and mesosphere has expanded rapidly, and the importance of this region in the climate system has become clear. With more observations, several new stratospheric phenomena have been discovered: the quasi-biennial oscillation, sudden stratospheric warmings, the Southern Hemisphere ozone hole, and surface weather impacts of stratospheric variability. None of these phenomena were anticipated by theory. Advances in theory have more often than not been prompted by unexplained phenomena seen in new stratospheric observations. From the 1960s onward, the importance of dynamical processes and the coupled stratosphere–troposphere circulation was realized. Since approximately 2000, better representations of the stratosphere—and even the mesosphere—have been included in climate and weather forecasting models. We now know that in order to produce accurate seasonal weather forecasts, and to predict long-term changes in climate and the future evolution of the ozone layer, models with a well-resolved stratosphere with realistic dynamics and chemistry are necessary.

Description: Satellite meteorology is a relatively new branch of the atmospheric sciences. The field emerged in the late 1950s during the Cold War and built on the advances in rocketry after World War II. In less than 70 years, satellite observations have transformed the way scientists observe and study Earth. This paper discusses some of the key advances in our understanding of the energy and water cycles, weather forecasting, and atmospheric composition enabled by satellite observations. While progress truly has been an international achievement, in accord with a monograph observing the centennial of the American Meteorological Society, as well as limited space, the emphasis of this chapter is on the U.S. satellite effort.

Description: This chapter outlines the development of our understanding of several examples of mesoscale atmospheric circulations that are tied directly to surface forcings, starting from thermally driven variations over the ocean and progressing inland to man-made variations in temperature and roughness, and ending with forced boundary layer circulations. Examples include atmospheric responses to 1) overocean temperature variations, 2) coastlines (sea breezes), 3) mesoscale regions of inland water (lake-effect storms), and 4) variations in land-based surface usage (urban land cover). This chapter provides brief summaries of the historical evolution of, and tools for, understanding such mesoscale atmospheric circulations and their importance to the field, as well as physical processes responsible for initiating and determining their evolution. Some avenues of future research we see as critical are provided. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) has played a direct and important role in fostering the development of understanding mesoscale surface-forced circulations. The significance of AMS journal publications and conferences on this and interrelated atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrological fields, as well as those by sister scientific organizations, are demonstrated through extensive relevant citations.

Description: The history of over 100 years of observing the ocean is reviewed. The evolution of particular classes of ocean measurements (e.g., shipboard hydrography, moorings, and drifting floats) are summarized along with some of the discoveries and dynamical understanding they made possible. By the 1970s, isolated and “expedition” observational approaches were evolving into experimental campaigns that covered large ocean areas and addressed multiscale phenomena using diverse instrumental suites and associated modeling and analysis teams. The Mid-Ocean Dynamics Experiment (MODE) addressed mesoscale “eddies” and their interaction with larger-scale currents using new ocean modeling and experiment design techniques and a suite of developing observational methods. Following MODE, new instrument networks were established to study processes that dominated ocean behavior in different regions. The Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere program gathered multiyear time series in the tropical Pacific to understand, and eventually predict, evolution of coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomena like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) sought to quantify ocean transport throughout the global ocean using temperature, salinity, and other tracer measurements along with fewer direct velocity measurements with floats and moorings. Western and eastern boundary currents attracted comprehensive measurements, and various coastal regions, each with its unique scientific and societally important phenomena, became home to regional observing systems. Today, the trend toward networked observing arrays of many instrument types continues to be a productive way to understand and predict large-scale ocean phenomena.

Description: In situ observation networks and reanalyses products of the state of the atmosphere and upper ocean show well-defined, large-scale patterns of coupled climate variability on time scales ranging from seasons to several decades. We summarize these phenomena and their physics, which have been revealed by analysis of observations, by experimentation with uncoupled and coupled atmosphere and ocean models with a hierarchy of complexity, and by theoretical developments. We start with a discussion of the seasonal cycle in the equatorial tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, which are clearly affected by coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean. We then discuss the tropical phenomena that only exist because of the coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean: the Pacific and Atlantic meridional modes, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific, and a phenomenon analogous to ENSO in the Atlantic. For ENSO, we further discuss the sources of irregularity and asymmetry between warm and cold phases of ENSO, and the response of ENSO to forcing. Fundamental to variability on all time scales in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are preferred patterns of uncoupled atmospheric variability that exist independent of any changes in the state of the ocean, land, or distribution of sea ice. These patterns include the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), and the Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern; they are most active in wintertime, with a temporal spectrum that is nearly white. Stochastic variability in the NPO, PNA, and NAO force the ocean on days to interannual times scales by way of turbulent heat exchange and Ekman transport, and on decadal and longer time scales by way of wind stress forcing. The PNA is partially responsible for the Pacific decadal oscillation; the NAO is responsible for an analogous phenomenon in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. In models, stochastic forcing by the NAO also gives rise to variability in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) that is partially responsible for multidecadal anomalies in the North Atlantic climate known as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO); observations do not yet exist to adequately determine the physics of the AMO. We review the progress that has been made in the past 50 years in understanding each of these phenomena and the implications for short-term (seasonal-to-interannual) climate forecasts. We end with a brief discussion of advances of things that are on the horizon, under the rug, and over the rainbow.

Description: s The history of severe thunderstorm research and forecasting over the past century has been a remarkable story involving interactions between technological development of observational and modeling capabilities, research into physical processes, and the forecasting of phenomena with the goal of reducing loss of life and property. Perhaps more so than any other field of meteorology, the relationship between researchers and forecasters has been particularly close in the severe thunderstorm domain, with both groups depending on improved observational capabilities. The advances that have been made have depended on observing systems that did not exist 100 years ago, particularly radar and upper-air systems. They have allowed scientists to observe storm behavior and structure and the environmental setting in which storms occur. This has led to improved understanding of processes, which in turn has allowed forecasters to use those same observational systems to improve forecasts. Because of the relatively rare and small-scale nature of many severe thunderstorm events, severe thunderstorm researchers have developed mobile instrumentation capabilities that have allowed them to collect high-quality observations in the vicinity of storms. Since much of the world is subject to severe thunderstorm hazards, research has taken place around the world, with the local emphasis dependent on what threats are perceived in that area, subject to the availability of resources to study the threat. Frequently, the topics of interest depend upon a single event, or a small number of events, of a particular kind that aroused public or economic interests in that area. International cooperation has been an important contributor to collecting and disseminating knowledge. As the AMS turns 100, the range of research relating to severe thunderstorms is expanding. The time scale of forecasting or projecting is increasing, with work going on to study forecasts on the seasonal to subseasonal time scales, as well as addressing how climate change may influence severe thunderstorms. With its roots in studying weather that impacts the public, severe thunderstorm research now includes significant work from the social science community, some as standalone research and some in active collaborative efforts with physical scientists. In addition, the traditional emphases of the field continue to grow. Improved radar and numerical modeling capabilities allow meteorologists to see and model details that were unobservable and not understood a half century ago. The long tradition of collecting observations in the field has led to improved quality and quantity of observations, as well as the capability to collect them in locations that were previously inaccessible. Much of that work has been driven by the gaps in understanding identified by theoretical and operational practice.

Description: Remarkable progress has occurred over the last 100 years in our understanding of atmospheric chemical composition, stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry, urban air pollution, acid rain, and the formation of airborne particles from gas-phase chemistry. Much of this progress was associated with the developing understanding of the formation and role of ozone and of the oxides of nitrogen, NO and NO2, in the stratosphere and troposphere. The chemistry of the stratosphere, emerging from the pioneering work of Chapman in 1931, was followed by the discovery of catalytic ozone cycles, ozone destruction by chlorofluorocarbons, and the polar ozone holes, work honored by the 1995 Nobel Prize in Chemistry awarded to Crutzen, Rowland, and Molina. Foundations for the modern understanding of tropospheric chemistry were laid in the 1950s and 1960s, stimulated by the eye-stinging smog in Los Angeles. The importance of the hydroxyl (OH) radical and its relationship to the oxides of nitrogen (NO and NO2) emerged. The chemical processes leading to acid rain were elucidated. The atmosphere contains an immense number of gas-phase organic compounds, a result of emissions from plants and animals, natural and anthropogenic combustion processes, emissions from oceans, and from the atmospheric oxidation of organics emitted into the atmosphere. Organic atmospheric particulate matter arises largely as gas-phase organic compounds undergo oxidation to yield low-volatility products that condense into the particle phase. A hundred years ago, quantitative theories of chemical reaction rates were nonexistent. Today, comprehensive computer codes are available for performing detailed calculations of chemical reaction rates and mechanisms for atmospheric reactions. Understanding the future role of atmospheric chemistry in climate change and, in turn, the impact of climate change on atmospheric chemistry, will be critical to developing effective policies to protect the planet.

Description: The human population on Earth has increased by a factor of 4.6 in the last 100 years and has become more centered in urban environments. This expansion and migration pattern has resulted in stresses on the environment. Meteorological applications have helped to understand and mitigate those stresses. This chapter describes several applications that enable the population to interact with the environment in more sustainable ways. The first topic treated is urbanization itself and the types of stresses exerted by population growth and its attendant growth in urban landscapes—buildings and pavement—and how they modify airflow and create a local climate. We describe environmental impacts of these changes and implications for the future. The growing population uses increasing amounts of energy. Traditional sources of energy have taxed the environment, but the increase in renewable energy has used the atmosphere and hydrosphere as its fuel. Utilizing these variable renewable resources requires meteorological information to operate electric systems efficiently and economically while providing reliable power and minimizing environmental impacts. The growing human population also pollutes the environment. Thus, understanding and modeling the transport and dispersion of atmospheric contaminants are important steps toward regulating the pollution and mitigating impacts. This chapter describes how weather information can help to make surface transportation more safe and efficient. It is explained how these applications naturally require transdisciplinary collaboration to address these challenges caused by the expanding population.

Description: Applied meteorology is an important and rapidly growing field. This chapter concludes the three-chapter series of this monograph describing how meteorological information can be used to serve society’s needs while at the same time advancing our understanding of the basics of the science. This chapter continues along the lines of Part II of this series by discussing ways that meteorological and climate information can help to improve the output of the agriculture and food-security sector. It also discusses how agriculture alters climate and its long-term implications. It finally pulls together several of the applications discussed by treating the food–energy–water nexus. The remaining topics of this chapter are those that are advancing rapidly with more opportunities for observation and needs for prediction. The study of space weather is advancing our understanding of how the barrage of particles from other planetary bodies in the solar system impacts Earth’s atmosphere. Our ability to predict wildland fires by coupling atmospheric and fire-behavior models is beginning to impact decision-support systems for firefighters. Last, we examine how artificial intelligence is changing the way we predict, emulate, and optimize our meteorological variables and its potential to amplify our capabilities. Many of these advances are directly due to the rapid increase in observational data and computer power. The applications reviewed in this series of chapters are not comprehensive, but they will whet the reader’s appetite for learning more about how meteorology can make a concrete impact on the world’s population by enhancing access to resources, preserving the environment, and feeding back into a better understanding how the pieces of the environmental system interact.

Description: Some of the advances of the past century in our understanding of the general circulation of the atmosphere are described, starting with a brief summary of some of the key developments from the first half of the twentieth century, but with a primary focus on the period beginning with the midcentury breakthrough in baroclinic instability and quasigeostrophic dynamics. In addition to baroclinic instability, topics touched upon include the following: stationary wave theory, the role played by the two-layer model, scaling arguments for the eddy heat flux, the subtlety of large-scale eddy momentum fluxes, the Eliassen–Palm flux and the transformed Eulerian mean formulation, the structure of storm tracks, and the controls on the Hadley cell.

Description: Over the last 100 years, boundary layer meteorology grew from the subject of mostly near-surface observations to a field encompassing diverse atmospheric boundary layers (ABLs) around the world. From the start, researchers drew from an ever-expanding set of disciplines—thermodynamics, soil and plant studies, fluid dynamics and turbulence, cloud microphysics, and aerosol studies. Research expanded upward to include the entire ABL in response to the need to know how particles and trace gases dispersed, and later how to represent the ABL in numerical models of weather and climate (starting in the 1970s–80s); taking advantage of the opportunities afforded by the development of large-eddy simulations (1970s), direct numerical simulations (1990s), and a host of instruments to sample the boundary layer in situ and remotely from the surface, the air, and space. Near-surface flux-profile relationships were developed rapidly between the 1940s and 1970s, when rapid progress shifted to the fair-weather convective boundary layer (CBL), though tropical CBL studies date back to the 1940s. In the 1980s, ABL research began to include the interaction of the ABL with the surface and clouds, the first ABL parameterization schemes emerged; and land surface and ocean surface model development blossomed. Research in subsequent decades has focused on more complex ABLs, often identified by shortcomings or uncertainties in weather and climate models, including the stable boundary layer, the Arctic boundary layer, cloudy boundary layers, and ABLs over heterogeneous surfaces (including cities). The paper closes with a brief summary, some lessons learned, and a look to the future.

Description: The development of the technologies of remote sensing of the ocean was initiated in the 1970s, while the ideas of observing the ocean from space were conceived in the late 1960s. The first global view from space revealed the expanse and complexity of the state of the ocean that had perplexed and inspired oceanographers ever since. This paper presents a glimpse of the vast progress made from ocean remote sensing in the past 50 years that has a profound impact on the ways we study the ocean in relation to weather and climate. The new view from space in conjunction with the deployment of an unprecedented amount of in situ observations of the ocean has led to a revolution in physical oceanography. The highlights of the achievement include the description and understanding of the global ocean circulation, the air–sea fluxes driving the coupled ocean–atmosphere system that is most prominently illustrated in the tropical oceans. The polar oceans are most sensitive to climate change with significant consequences, but owing to remoteness they were not accessible until the space age. Fundamental discoveries have been made on the evolution of the state of sea ice as well as the circulation of the ice-covered ocean. Many surprises emerged from the extraordinary accuracy and expanse of the space observations. Notable examples include the determination of the global mean sea level rise as well as the role of the deep ocean in tidal mixing and dissipation.

Description: This article describes one of the first successful examples of multisensor, multivariate land data assimilation, encompassing a large suite of soil moisture, snow depth, snow cover, and irrigation intensity environmental data records (EDRs) from the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR), Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT), Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E and AMSR2), Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, and Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission. The analysis is performed using the NASA Land Information System (LIS) as an enabling tool for the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA). The performance of the NCA Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) is evaluated by comparing it to a number of hydrological reference data products. Results indicate that multivariate assimilation provides systematic improvements in simulated soil moisture and snow depth, with marginal effects on the accuracy of simulated streamflow and evapotranspiration. An important conclusion is that across all evaluated variables, assimilation of data from increasingly more modern sensors (e.g., SMOS, SMAP, AMSR2, ASCAT) produces more skillful results than assimilation of data from older sensors (e.g., SMMR, SSM/I, AMSR-E). The evaluation also indicates the high skill of NCA-LDAS when compared with other LSM products. Further, drought indicators based on NCA-LDAS output suggest a trend of longer and more severe droughts over parts of the western United States during 1979–2015, particularly in the southwestern United States, consistent with the trends from the U.S. Drought Monitor, albeit for a shorter 2000–15 time period.

Description: The dynamics of a stratified oceanic bottom boundary layer (BBL) over an insulating, sloping surface depend critically on the intersection of density surfaces with the bottom. For an imposed along-slope flow, the cross-slope Ekman transport advects density surfaces and generates a near-bottom geostrophic thermal wind shear that opposes the background flow. A limiting case occurs when a momentum balance is achieved between the Coriolis force and a restoring buoyancy force in response to the displacement of stratified fluid over the slope: this is known as Ekman arrest. However, the turbulent characteristics that accompany this adjustment have received less attention. We present two estimates to characterize the state of the BBL based on the mixed layer thickness: Ha and HL. The former characterizes the steady Ekman arrested state, and the latter characterizes a relaminarized state. The derivation of HL makes use of a newly defined slope Obukhov length Ls that characterizes the relative importance of shear production and cross-slope buoyancy advection. The value of Ha can be combined with the temporally evolving depth of the mixed layer H to form a nondimensional variable H/Ha that provides a similarity prediction of the BBL evolution across different turbulent regimes. The length scale Ls can also be used to obtain an expression for the wall stress when the BBL relaminarizes. We validate these relationships using output from a suite of three-dimensional large-eddy simulations. We conclude that the BBL reaches the relaminarized state before the steady Ekman arrested state. Calculating H/Ha and H/HL from measurements will provide information on the stage of oceanic BBL development being observed. These diagnostics may also help to improve numerical parameterizations of stratified BBL dynamics over sloping topography.

Description: The Lagrangian motion in the eddy field produced from an unstable retrograde jet along the shelf break is studied from idealized numerical experiments with a primitive equation model. The jet is initially in thermal wind balance with a cross-isobath density gradient and is not subjected to any atmospheric forcing. Over the course of the model integration, the jet becomes unstable and produces a quasi-stationary eddy field over a 2-month period. During this period, the cross-slope flow at the shelf break is characterized by along-slope correlation scales of O(10) km and temporal correlation scales of a few days. The relative dispersion of parcels across isobaths is found to increase with time as tb, where 1 〈 b 〈 2. This mixed diffusive–ballistic regime appears to reflect the combined effects of (i) the short length scales of velocity correlation at the shelf break and (ii) the seaward excursion of monopolar and dipolar vortices. Cross-slope dispersion is greater offshore of the front than inshore of the front, as offshore parcels are both subducted onshore below density surfaces and translated offshore with eddies. Nonetheless, the exchange of parcels across the jet remains very limited on the monthly time scale. Particles originating from the bottom experience upward displacements of a few tens of meters and seaward displacements of O(100) km, suggesting that the eddy activity engendered by an unstable along-slope jet provides another mechanism for bottom boundary layer detachment near the shelf edge.

Description: Relationships between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the extratropical circulation have been studied extensively and applied in operational settings to improve subseasonal prediction. However, in certain situations, tropical cyclones (TCs), which often coincide with enhanced MJO activity, can interfere with MJO organization and common pathways through which the extratropics respond to the MJO, yielding unexpected extratropical circulation outcomes. A statistical experiment is developed to assess the extent to which the presence of west Pacific TCs in different parts of the basin during a given MJO phase are related to subsequent remote extratropical circulation outcomes and whether these outcomes can be explained by random chance. Results demonstrate that significant, high-amplitude remote circulation anomalies that align with or differ from those expected to lag a given MJO phase tend to develop in association with TCs that cluster in specific parts of the basin and at specific leads—in some cases, more than 2 weeks before a pattern emerges. These spatial and temporal clusters vary between MJO phases. Next, composite patterns of anomalous 200-hPa geopotential height associated with a set of nonrecurving TCs transiting the South China Sea during real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) phase 5 are examined relative to their full RMM phase-5 reference patterns. While both sets of patterns exhibit high correlation at early time lags, they quickly evolve out of phase with one another. It is suggested that the TCs featured in the TC-based composite contribute to this observed phase shift by modulating the RMM phase-5 extratropical response pathway.

Description: The criteria used to define Santa Ana winds (SAWs) are dependent upon both the impact of interest (e.g., catastrophic wildfires) and the location and/or time of day examined. We employ a comprehensive definition and methodology for constructing a climatological SAW time series from 1981 through 2016 for two Southern California regions, Los Angeles and San Diego. For both regions, we examine SAW climatology, distinguish SAW-associated synoptic-scale atmospheric patterns, and detect long-term, significant SAW trends. San Diego has 30% fewer SAW days compared to Los Angeles with 80% of SAW events starting in Los Angeles first. Further, 45% of San Diego SAW events are single-day events compared to 35% for Los Angeles. The longest duration event spanned 16 days for Los Angeles (27 November–12 December 1988) and 8 days for San Diego (9–16 January 2009). Although SAW-driven fires can be large and devastating, these types of fires occurred on only 6% and 5% of SAW days for the Los Angeles and San Diego regions, respectively. Finally, we find and investigate an extended period of elevated SAW day count occurring after 2005. This new climatology will allow us to produce month- and season-ahead forecasts of SAW days, which is useful for planning end-of-year staffing coverage by the local, state, and federal fire agencies.

Description: Measurements of vertical profiles of areal-mean mass divergence, vorticity, and vertical velocity, based on dropsondes distributed over an area of 25 000 km2, are presented. The dropsondes were released with high frequency along circular flight patterns during an airborne field campaign taking place over the tropical Atlantic near Barbados. Vertical profiles of the area-averaged mass divergence and vorticity were computed from the horizontal wind profiles, and the area-averaged vertical velocity was then inferred from the divergence. The consistency of measurements over pairs of circles flown within the same air mass demonstrated the reproducibility of the measurements, and showed that they characterize the environmental conditions on the scale of the measurement, rather than being dominated by measurement error or small-scale wind variability. The estimates from dropsondes were found to be consistent with the observed cloud field, with Lagrangian estimates of the mean vertical velocity inferred from the free-tropospheric humidity field, and with the mean vertical velocity derived from simulations using an atmospheric model representing kilometer-scale motions and initialized with meteorological analyses. In trade wind–like conditions, the divergence and vorticity profiles exhibit a rich vertical structure and a significant variability in space and time. Yet a few features appear to be robust, such as the presence of layers of mass convergence at the top of moist layers, extrema of the area-averaged vertical velocity at the top of the subcloud layer and in the midtroposphere, and minima around the trade inversion near 2 km. The analysis of spatial and temporal autocorrelation scales suggests that the divergent mass field measured from dropsondes is representative of the environment of shallow clouds.

Description: Entrainment is critical to the development of the atmospheric convective boundary layer (CBL), but little is known about how entrainment is impacted by the aerosol radiative effect. An aerosol radiation transfer model is used in conjunction with large-eddy simulation (LES) to quantify the impact of aerosol shortwave radiative heating on entrainment and thermodynamics of an idealized dry CBL under aerosol-loading conditions. An entrainment equation is derived within the framework of a zero-order model (ZOM) with the aerosol radiative heating effect included; the equation is then examined against the LES outputs for varying aerosol optical depths (AODs) and free-atmosphere stratification scenarios. The results show that the heat flux profiles become more nonlinear in shape as compared to the case of the clean (no aerosol pollution) CBL, with the degree of nonlinearity being highly dependent on the AOD of the layer for the given type of radiation-absorbing aerosols. As AOD increases, less solar radiation reaches the surface and thus the surface heat flux becomes smaller, and both actual (LES) and ZOM-derived entrainment flux ratios decrease. This trend is opposite to the clean CBL where the LES-predicted flux ratios show an increasing trend with diminishing surface heat flux, while the ZOM-calculated flux ratio remains constant. The modified dimensionless entrainment rate closely follows the −1 power law with a modified Richardson number. The study suggests that including the aerosol radiative effect may improve numerical air quality predictions for heavy-air-pollution events.

Description: This article presents a decadal transition from a decreasing trend to an increasing trend in the late 1990s for autumn rainfall in central China. The atmospheric and oceanic background underlying this regime shift is also addressed. Accompanying the above decadal transition, the moisture convergence and ascending motion averaged in central China both switch from a weakening trend to a strengthening trend. Meanwhile, after the late 1990s, the declining of the Asian sea level pressure (SLP) and the deepening of the Lake Balkhash trough may induce more cold air from high latitudes to break out southward. The strengthening of the low-level southerly in East Asia could transport more moisture northward from low latitudes. More cold air and more warm-moist airflow encountering in the targeted region contribute to the increasing trend of local rainfall. The situation before the late 1990s is generally reversed, which accounts for the decreasing trend of autumn rainfall. The movement of the East Asian jet (EAJ) from southward to northward also has a contribution via its influence on dynamic condition. Additionally, changes in the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the western Indian and Atlantic Oceans from a cooling trend to a warming trend in the late 1990s play significant roles through their modulations on moisture transport and cold-air activities.

Description: In this study, we use observational and numerical model data from the Coupled Air Sea Processes and Electromagnetic Ducting Research (CASPER) field campaign to describe the mean refractive conditions offshore Duck, North Carolina. The U.S. Navy operational numerical weather prediction model known as the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) performed well forecasting large-scale conditions during the experiment, with an observed warm bias in SST and cold and dry biases in temperature and humidity in the lowest 2000 m. In general, COAMPS underpredicted the number of ducts, and they were weaker and at lower height than those seen in observations. It was found that there is a noticeable diurnal evolution of the ducts, more over land than over the ocean. Ducts were found to be more frequent over land but overall were stronger and deeper over the ocean. Also, the evaporative duct height increases as one moves offshore. A case study was chosen to describe the electromagnetic properties under different synoptic conditions. In this case the continental atmospheric boundary layer dominates and interacts with the marine atmospheric boundary layer. As a result, the latter moves around 80 km offshore and then back inland after 2 h.

Description: Building upon our previous seasonal hurricane prediction model, here we develop two statistical models to predict the number of major hurricanes (MHs) and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the North Atlantic basin using monthly data from March to May for an early June forecast. The input data include zonal pseudo–wind stress to the 3/2 power, sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic, and, depending on the magnitude of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation index, the multivariate ENSO index. From 1968 to 2017, these models have a mean absolute error of 0.96 storms for MHs and 30 units for ACE. When tested over an independent period from 1958 to 1967, the models show a 22% improvement for MHs and 16% for ACE over a no-skill metric based on a 5-yr running average. Both the MH and ACE results show consistent improvements over those produced by three other centers using statistical–dynamical hybrid models and a 5-yr running average prediction over the period 2000–17 for MHs (2003–17 for ACE) in a simulated real-time prediction. These improvements vary from 25% to 37% for MHs and from 15% to 37% for ACE. While most forecasting centers called for a slightly above-average hurricane season in May/June 2017, our models predicted in June 2017 a very active season, in much better agreement with observations.

Description: Recent concurrent shifts of the East Asian polar-front jet (EAPJ) and the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ) in the boreal winter have raised concerns, since they could result in severe weather events over East Asia. However, the possible mechanisms are not fully understood. In this study, the roles of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) are investigated by analyzing reanalysis data and model simulations. Results show that combinations of opposite phases of the IPO and AMO can result in significant shifts of the two jets during 1920–2014. This relationship is particularly evident during 1999–2014 and 1979–98 in the reanalysis data. A combination of a negative phase of the IPO (−IPO) and a positive phase of the AMO (+AMO) since the late 1990s has enhanced the meridional temperature gradient and the Eady growth rate and thus westerlies over the region between the two jets, but weakened them to the south and north of the region, thereby contributing to the equatorward and poleward shifts of the EAPJ and EASJ, respectively. Atmospheric model simulations are further used to investigate the relative contribution of −IPO and +AMO to the jet shifts. The model simulations show that the combination of −IPO and +AMO favors the recent jet changes more than the individual −IPO or +AMO. Under a concurrent −IPO and +AMO, the meridional eddy transport of zonal momentum and sensitive heat strengthens, and more mean available potential energy converts to the eddy available potential energy over the region between the two jets, which enhances westerly winds there.

Description: Various forcing and feedback processes coexist in the tropical Pacific, which can modulate El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In particular, large covariabilities in chlorophyll (Chl) and freshwater flux (FWF) at the sea surface are observed during ENSO cycles, acting to execute feedbacks on ENSO through the related ocean-biology-induced heating (OBH) and FWF forcing, respectively. At present, the related effects and underlying mechanism are strongly model dependent and are still not well understood. Here, a new hybrid coupled model (HCM), developed to represent interactions between the atmosphere and ocean physics–biology (AOPB) in the tropical Pacific, is used to examine the extent to which ENSO can be modulated by interannually covarying anomalies of FWF and Chl. HCM AOPB–based sensitivity experiments indicate that individually the FWF forcing tends to amplify ENSO via its influence on the stratification and vertical mixing in the upper ocean, whereas the OBH feedback tends to damp it. While the FWF- and OBH-related individual effects tend to counteract each other, their combined effects give rise to unexpected situations. For example, an increase in the FWF forcing intensity actually acts to decrease the ENSO amplitude when the OBH feedback effects coexist at a certain intensity. The nonlinear modulation of the ENSO amplitude can happen when the FWF-related amplifying effects on ENSO are compensated for by OBH-related damping effects. The results offer insight into modulating effects on ENSO, which are evident in nature and different climate models.

Description: The relative roles of buoy and Argo observations in two sea surface temperature (SST) analyses are studied in the global ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean over 2000–16 using monthly Extended Reconstructed SST version 5 (ERSSTv5) and Daily Optimum Interpolation SST version 2 (DOISST). Experiments show an overall higher impact by buoys than Argo floats over the global oceans and an increasing impact by Argo floats. The impact by Argo floats is generally larger in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere. The impact on trends and anomalies of globally averaged SST by either one is small when the other is used. The warming trend over 2000–16 remains significant by including either buoys or Argo floats or both. In the tropical Pacific, the impact by buoys was large over 2000–05 when the number of Argo floats was low, and became smaller over 2010–16 when the number and area coverage of Argo floats increased. The magnitude of El Niño and La Niña events decreases when the observations from buoys, Argo floats, or both are excluded. The impact by the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) and Triangle Trans-Ocean Buoy Network (TRITON) is small in normal years and during El Niño events. The impact by TAO/TRITON buoys on La Niña events is small when Argo floats are included in the analysis systems, and large when Argo floats are not included. The reason for the different impact on El Niño and La Niña events is that the drifting buoys are more dispersed from the equatorial Pacific region by stronger trade winds during La Niña events.

Description: Previous studies have documented a poleward shift in the subsiding branches of Earth’s Hadley circulation since 1979 but have disagreed on the causes of these observed changes and the ability of global climate models to capture them. This synthesis paper reexamines a number of contradictory claims in the past literature and finds that the tropical expansion indicated by modern reanalyses is within the bounds of models’ historical simulations for the period 1979–2005. Earlier conclusions that models were underestimating the observed trends relied on defining the Hadley circulation using the mass streamfunction from older reanalyses. The recent observed tropical expansion has similar magnitudes in the annual mean in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH), but models suggest that the factors driving the expansion differ between the hemispheres. In the SH, increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) and stratospheric ozone depletion contributed to tropical expansion over the late twentieth century, and if GHGs continue increasing, the SH tropical edge is projected to shift further poleward over the twenty-first century, even as stratospheric ozone concentrations recover. In the NH, the contribution of GHGs to tropical expansion is much smaller and will remain difficult to detect in a background of large natural variability, even by the end of the twenty-first century. To explain similar recent tropical expansion rates in the two hemispheres, natural variability must be taken into account. Recent coupled atmosphere–ocean variability, including the Pacific decadal oscillation, has contributed to tropical expansion. However, in models forced with observed sea surface temperatures, tropical expansion rates still vary widely because of internal atmospheric variability.

Description: Three strategies for creating probabilistic forecast outlooks for El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are compared. One is subjective and is currently used by the NOAA/Climate Prediction Center (CPC) to produce official ENSO outlooks. A second is purely objective and is based on the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). A new third strategy is proposed in which the forecaster only provides the expected value of the Niño-3.4 index, and then categorical probabilities are objectively determined based on past skill. The new strategy results in more confident probabilities compared to the subjective approach and higher verification scores, while avoiding the significant forecast busts that sometimes afflict the NMME-based objective approach. The higher verification scores of the new strategy appear to result from the added value that forecasters provide in predicting the mean, combined with more reliable representations of uncertainty, which is difficult to represent because forecasters often assume less confidence than is justified. Moreover, the new approach can produce higher-resolution probabilistic forecasts that include ENSO strength information and that are difficult, if not impossible, for forecasters to produce. To illustrate, a nine-category ENSO outlook based on the new strategy is assessed and found to be skillful. The new approach can be applied to other outlooks where users desire higher-resolution probabilistic forecasts, including the extremes.

Description: Storm-centered IR brightness temperature imagery was used to create 6-h IR brightness temperature difference fields for all Atlantic basin tropical cyclones from 1982 to 2017. Pulses of colder cloud tops were defined objectively by determining critical thresholds for the magnitude of the IR differences, areal coverage of cold-cloud tops, and longevity. Long-lived cooling pulses (≥9 h) were present on 45% of days overall, occurring on 80% of major hurricane days, 64% of minor hurricane days, 46% of tropical storm days, and 24% of tropical depression days. These cooling pulses propagated outward between 8 and 14 m s−1. Short-lived cooling pulses (3–6 h) were found 26.4% of the time. Some days without cooling pulses had events of the opposite sign, which were labeled warming pulses. Long-lived warming pulses occurred 8.5% of the time and propagated outward at the same speed as their cooling pulse counterparts. Only 12.2% of days had no pulses that met the criteria, indicating that pulsing is nearly ubiquitous in tropical cyclones. The environment prior to outward propagation of cooling pulses differed from warming pulse and no pulse days by having more favorable conditions between 0000 and 0300 LT for enhanced inner-core convection: higher SST and ocean heat content, more moisture throughout the troposphere, and stronger low-level vorticity and upper-level divergence.

Description: The sharp decline of Arctic sea ice in recent decades has captured the attention of the climate science community. A majority of climate analyses performed to date have used monthly or seasonal data. Here, however, we analyze daily sea ice data for 1979–2016 using the self-organizing map (SOM) method to further examine and quantify the contributions of atmospheric circulation changes to the melt-season Arctic sea ice variability. Our results reveal two main variability modes: the Pacific sector mode and the Barents and Kara Seas mode, which together explain about two-thirds of the melt-season Arctic sea ice variability and more than 40% of its trend for the study period. The change in the frequencies of the two modes appears to be associated with the phase shift of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). The PDO and AMO trigger anomalous atmospheric circulations, in particular, the Greenland high and the North Atlantic Oscillation and anomalous warm and cold air advections into the Arctic Ocean. The changes in surface air temperature, lower-atmosphere moisture, and downwelling longwave radiation associated with the advection are consistent with the melt-season sea ice anomalies observed in various regions of the Arctic Ocean. These results help better understand the predictability of Arctic sea ice on multiple (synoptic, intraseasonal, and interannual) time scales.

Description: The rapidly warming Arctic is experiencing permafrost degradation and shrub expansion. Future climate projections show a clear increase in mean annual temperature and increasing precipitation in the Arctic; however, the impact of these changes on hydrological cycling in Arctic headwater basins is poorly understood. This study investigates the impact of climate change, as represented by simulations using a high-resolution atmospheric model under a pseudo-global-warming configuration, and projected changes in vegetation, using a spatially distributed and physically based Arctic hydrological model, on a small headwater basin at the tundra–taiga transition in northwestern Canada. Climate projections under the RCP8.5 emission scenario show a 6.1°C warming, a 38% increase in annual precipitation, and a 19 W m−2 increase in all-wave annual irradiance over the twenty-first century. Hydrological modeling results suggest a shift in hydrological processes with maximum peak snow accumulation increasing by 70%, snow-cover duration shortening by 26 days, active layer deepening by 0.25 m, evapotranspiration increasing by 18%, and sublimation decreasing by 9%. This results in an intensification of the hydrological regime by doubling discharge volume, a 130% increase in spring runoff, and earlier and larger peak streamflow. Most hydrological changes were found to be driven by climate change; however, increasing vegetation cover and density reduced blowing snow redistribution and sublimation, and increased evaporation from intercepted rainfall. This study provides the first detailed investigation of projected changes in climate and vegetation on the hydrology of an Arctic headwater basin, and so it is expected to help inform larger-scale climate impact studies in the Arctic.

Description: Hail and graupel are linked to lightning production and are important components of cloud evolution. Hail can also cause significant damage when it precipitates to the surface. The accurate prediction of the amount and location of hail and graupel and the effects on the other hydrometeor species depends upon the size distribution assumed. Here, we use ~310 km of in situ observations from flights of the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology T-28 storm-penetrating aircraft to constrain the representation of the particle size distribution (PSD) of hail. The maximum ~1-km hail water content encountered was 9 g m−3. Optical probe PSD measurements are normalized using two-moment normalization relations to obtain an underlying exponential shape. By linking the two normalizing moments through a power law, a parameterization of the hail PSD is provided based on the hail water content only. Preliminary numerical weather simulations indicate that the new parameterization produces increased radar reflectivity relative to commonly used PSD representations.

Description: The detection and attribution of changes in precipitation characteristics relies on dense networks of rain gauges. In the United States, the COOP network is widely used for such studies even though there are reported inconsistencies due to changes in instruments and location, inadequate maintenance, dissimilar observation time, and the fact that measurements are made by a group of dedicated volunteers. Alternately, the Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) network has been consistently and professionally measuring precipitation since the early 1930s. The purpose of this study is to compare changes in extreme daily precipitation characteristics during the warm season using paired rain gauges from the LTAR and COOP networks. The comparison, done at 12 LTAR sites located across the United States, shows underestimation and overestimation of daily precipitation totals at the COOP sites compared to the reference LTAR observations. However, the magnitude and direction of the differences are not linked to the underlying precipitation climatology of the sites. Precipitation indices that focus on extreme precipitation characteristics match closely between the two networks at most of the sites. Our results show consistency between the COOP and LTAR networks with precipitation extremes. It also indicates that despite the discrepancies at the daily time steps, the extreme precipitation observed by COOP rain gauges can be reliably used to characterize changes in the hydrologic cycle due to natural and human causes.

Description: As the new-generation geostationary satellite Himawari-8 provides a greater frequency and more observation channels than its predecessor, the Multifunctional Transport Satellite series (e.g., MTSAT-2), an opportunity arises to generate atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) with an increased accuracy and extensive distribution over eastern Asia. In this work AMVs were derived from consecutive images of an infrared-window channel (IR1) of the Himawari-8 satellite using particle image velocimetry (PIV) based on the theory of cross-correlation schemes. A multipass scheme and an adaptive interrogation scheme were also employed to increase spatial resolution and accuracy. For height assignment, an infrared-window method was applied for opaque cloud, while an H2O-intercept method was employed for semitransparent cloud. Validation was conducted by comparing the PIV-derived AMVs with wind fields obtained from NWP analysis, radiosonde observations, and the operational system from the Meteorological Satellite Center (MSC) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) or JMA/MSC. The comparison of wind velocity maps with the NWP data shows that the PIV-derived AMVs are capable of quantitatively depicting full-field wind field maps and strong jets in atmospheric circulation. Through comparisons with radiosonde observations, the root-mean-square error and wind speed bias (4.29 and −1.05 m s−1) of the PIV-derived AMVs are comparable to, although slightly greater than, that of the NWP data (3.88 and −0.26 m s−1). Based on comparison between the PIV-derived AMVs and wind fields obtained from the JMA/MSC operational system, the PIV-derived AMVs are again comparable, producing a slightly lower error but a larger wind speed bias (−1.05 vs 0.20 m s−1). This also implies that a better height assignment algorithm is necessary.

Description: Straddling the Asian–Australian monsoon region, the Maritime Continent (MC) experiences substantial rainfall variations from diurnal to interannual and longer time scales. In this study, rainfall over Singapore and the wider MC region are analyzed using objectively identified weather regimes. Eight regional-scale weather regimes are derived by k-means clustering of local vertical profiles of zonal and meridional winds, temperature, and specific humidity extracted over Singapore from ERA-Interim data for the period December 1980–November 2014. The composite synoptic flow and rainfall patterns over the region show that the weather regimes correspond to the seasonal migration of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) across the equator. For Singapore, the regimes depict seasonal rainfall variability by capturing the alternating dry and wet phases of the prevailing local monsoon and transition periods associated with the regional-scale ITCZ movement. Following previous work, the regimes are used to examine the annual rainfall trend by calculating the contributions due to 1) changes in regime frequency, indicating regional-scale circulation changes, and 2) changes in within-regime precipitation, indicating altered thermodynamic conditions. The overall trend observed at Singapore and many other MC locations is overwhelmingly due to changes in within-regime precipitation. However, the overall trend masks the larger contribution resulting from regime frequency changes as these circulation changes tend to offset one another in reality. In many MC areas (including Singapore), summed rainfall changes due to regime frequency changes outweigh those due to changes in within-regime rainfall, when aggregated in an absolute sense.

Description: A simple multilayer zonally symmetric model, using a multicloud convective parameterization and coupled to a dynamical bulk atmospheric boundary layer, is used here to simulate boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations (BSISO) in the summer monsoon trough and elucidate the underlying main physical mechanisms responsible for their initiation, propagation, and termination. Northward-moving precipitating events initiated near the equator propagate northward at roughly 1° day−1 and terminate near 20°N. Unlike earlier findings, the northward propagation of precipitation anomalies in this model is due to the propagation of positive moisture anomalies in the northward direction, resulting from an asymmetry in the meridional velocity induced by the beta effect. From a moisture-budget perspective, advection constitutes a biased intrusion of dry air into the convection center, forcing new convection events to form north of the wave disturbance, while moisture convergence supplies the precipitation sink. The BSISO events are initiated near the equator when the competing effects between first-baroclinic divergence and second-baroclinic convergence, induced by the descending branch of the Hadley cell and in situ congestus heating, respectively, become favorable to convective intensification. The termination often near 20°N and halfway stalling of these precipitating events occur when the asymmetry in the first-baroclinic meridional winds weakens and when the negative moisture gradient to the north of the convection center becomes too strong as the anomaly exits the imposed warm pool domain.

Description: Conservation of total, kinetic, and thermal energy in the atmosphere is revisited, and the derived thermal energy balance is examined with observations. Total energy conservation (TEC) provides a constraint for the sum of kinetic, thermal, and potential energy changes. In response to air thermal expansion/compression, air density variation leads to vertical density fluxes and potential energy changes, which in turn impact the thermal energy balance as well as the kinetic energy balance due to the constraint of TEC. As vertical density fluxes can propagate through a large vertical domain to where local thermal expansion/compression becomes negligibly small, interactions between kinetic and thermal energy changes in determining atmospheric motions and thermodynamic structures can occur when local diabatic heating/cooling becomes small. The contribution of vertical density fluxes to the kinetic energy balance is sometimes considered but that to the thermal energy balance is traditionally missed. Misinterpretation between air thermal expansion/compression and incompressibility for air volume changes with pressure under a constant temperature would lead to overlooking important impacts of thermal expansion/compression on air motions and atmospheric thermodynamics. Atmospheric boundary layer observations qualitatively confirm the contribution of potential energy changes associated with vertical density fluxes in the thermal energy balance for explaining temporal variations of air temperature.

Description: This study examines the primary atmospheric controls over winter precipitation variability in the Great Lakes basin and the potential for seasonal prediction. We employ partial least squares (PLS) regression to identify the primary modes of joint variability between winter precipitation over each of the Great Lakes and concurrent anomalies in midlevel atmospheric flow. We find that the first identified pattern (PLS1) is related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while the other patterns represent unique anomalies in atmospheric flow that govern precipitation gradients over the basin, with limited seasonal predictability. Nonlinearities are found in the relationship between a sea surface temperature (SST)-based index for ENSO and PLS1 with respect to the phase, strength, and type of ENSO event. An examination of the ENSO-related propagating wave train that drives variability of PLS1 precipitation reveals that seasonally lagged tropical Pacific convection, as measured by remotely sensed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), is more strongly and linearly related to Great Lakes winter precipitation than SST-based ENSO indices. Cross-validated linear regressions based on October OLR signals explain 20%–32% of the out-of-sample precipitation variability in the Great Lakes basin. We conclude with a deeper assessment of the underlying relationship between patterns of OLR anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific and Great Lakes winter precipitation. Results show that precipitation response to El Niño is similar regardless of OLR intensity in the tropical Pacific, but for La Niña events, the precipitation response is stronger under weak tropical OLR anomalies. The potential for further improvements in ENSO-based seasonal forecasts are discussed.

Description: The passage of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) over the Indian Ocean and the Maritime Continent is investigated during the episode of 23–30 November 2011. A Meso-NH convection-permitting simulation with a horizontal grid spacing of 4 km is examined. The simulation reproduces the MJO signal correctly, showing the eastward propagation of the primary rain activity. The atmospheric overturning is analyzed using the isentropic method, which separates the ascending air with high equivalent potential temperature from the subsiding air with low equivalent potential temperature. Three key circulations are found. The first two circulations are a tropospheric deep circulation spanning from the surface to an altitude of 14 km and an overshoot circulation within the tropical tropopause layer. As expected for circulations associated with deep convection, their intensities, as well as their diabatic tendencies, increase during the active phase of the MJO, while their entrainment rates decrease. The third circulation is characterized by a rising of air with low equivalent potential temperature in the lower free troposphere. The intensity of the circulation, as well as its depth, varies with the MJO activity. During the suppressed phase, this circulation is associated with a dry air intrusion from the subtropical region into the tropical band and shows a strong drying of the lower to middle troposphere.

Description: We assess the vertical distribution of radiative heating rates (RHRs) in climate models using a multimodel experiment and A-Train satellite observations, for the first time. As RHRs rely on the representation of cloud amount and properties, we first compare the modeled vertical distribution of clouds directly against lidar–radar combined cloud observations (i.e., without simulators). On a near-global scale (50°S–50°N), two systematic differences arise: an excess of high-level clouds around 200 hPa in the tropics, and a general lack of mid- and low-level clouds compared to the observations. Then, using RHR profiles calculated with constraints from A-Train and reanalysis data, along with their associated maximum uncertainty estimates, we show that the excess clouds and ice water content in the upper troposphere result in excess infrared heating in the vicinity of and below the clouds as well as a lack of solar heating below the clouds. In the lower troposphere, the smaller cloud amount and the underestimation of cloud-top height is coincident with a shift of the infrared cooling to lower levels, substantially reducing the greenhouse effect, which is slightly compensated by an erroneous excess absorption of solar radiation. Clear-sky RHR differences between the observations and the models mitigate cloudy RHR biases in the low levels while they enhance them in the high levels. Finally, our results indicate that a better agreement between observed and modeled cloud profiles could substantially improve the RHR profiles. However, more work is needed to precisely quantify modeled cloud errors and their subsequent effect on RHRs.

Description: Forecast uncertainty associated with the prediction of snowfall amounts is a complex superposition of the uncertainty about precipitation amounts and the uncertainty about weather variables like temperature that influence the snow-forming process. In situations with heavy precipitation, parametric, regression-based postprocessing approaches often perform very well since they can extrapolate relations between forecast and observed precipitation amounts established with data from more common events. The complexity of the relation between temperature and snowfall amounts, on the other hand, makes nonparametric techniques like the analog method an attractive choice. In this article we show how these two different methodologies can be combined in a way that leverages the respective advantages. Predictive distributions of precipitation amounts are obtained using a heteroscedastic regression approach based on censored, shifted gamma distributions, and quantile forecasts derived from them are used together with ensemble forecasts of temperature to find analog dates where both quantities were similar. The observed snowfall amounts on these dates are then used to compose an ensemble that represents the uncertainty about future snowfall. We demonstrate this approach with reforecast data from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and snowfall analyses from the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center (NOHRSC) over an area within the northeastern United States and an area within the U.S. mountain states.

Description: Since the early 2000s, growing computing resources for numerical weather prediction (NWP) and scientific advances enabled development and testing of experimental, real-time deterministic convection-allowing models (CAMs). By the late 2000s, continued advancements spurred development of CAM ensemble forecast systems, through which a broad range of successful forecasting applications have been demonstrated. This work has prepared the National Weather Service (NWS) for practical usage of the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) system, which was implemented operationally in November 2017. Historically, methods for postprocessing and visualizing products from regional and global ensemble prediction systems (e.g., ensemble means and spaghetti plots) have been applied to fields that provide information on mesoscale to synoptic-scale processes. However, much of the value from CAMs is derived from the explicit simulation of deep convection and associated storm-attribute fields like updraft helicity and simulated reflectivity. Thus, fully exploiting CAM ensembles for forecasting applications has required the development of fundamentally new data extraction, postprocessing, and visualization strategies. In the process, challenges imposed by the immense data volume inherent to these systems required new approaches when considering diverse factors like forecaster interpretation and computational expense. In this article, we review the current state of postprocessing and visualization for CAM ensembles, with a particular focus on forecast applications for severe convective hazards that have been evaluated within NOAA’s Hazardous Weather Testbed. The HREF web viewer implemented at the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is presented as a prototype for deploying these techniques in real time on a flexible and widely accessible platform.

Description: Low-latitude rainfall variability on the daily to intraseasonal time scale is often related to tropical waves, including convectively coupled equatorial waves, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), and tropical disturbances (TDs). Despite the importance of rainfall variability for vulnerable societies in tropical Africa, the relative influence of tropical waves for this region is largely unknown. This article presents the first systematic comparison of the impact of six wave types on precipitation over northern tropical Africa during the transition and full monsoon seasons, using two satellite products and a dense rain gauge network. Composites of rainfall anomalies in the different datasets show comparable modulation intensities in the West Sahel and at the Guinea Coast, varying from less than 2 to above 7 mm day−1 depending on the wave type. African easterly waves (AEWs) and Kelvin waves dominate the 3-hourly to daily time scale and explain 10%–30% locally. On longer time scales (7–20 days), only the MJO and equatorial Rossby (ER) waves remain as modulating factors and explain about up to one-third of rainfall variability. Eastward inertio-gravity waves and mixed Rossby–gravity (MRG) waves are comparatively unimportant. An analysis of wave superposition shows that low-frequency waves (MJO, ER) in their wet phase amplify the activity of high-frequency waves (TD, MRG) and suppress them in the dry phase. The results stress that more attention should be paid to tropical waves when forecasting rainfall over northern tropical Africa.

Description: While Hurricane Harvey will best be remembered for record rainfall that led to widespread flooding in southeastern Texas and western Louisiana, the storm also produced some of the most extreme wind speeds ever to be captured by an adaptive mesonet at landfall. This paper describes the unique tools and the strategy used by the Digital Hurricane Consortium (DHC), an ad hoc group of atmospheric scientists and wind engineers, to intercept and collect high-resolution measurements of Harvey’s inner core and eyewall as it passed over Aransas Bay into mainland Texas. The DHC successfully deployed more than 25 observational assets, leading to an unprecedented view of the boundary layer and winds aloft in the eyewall of a major hurricane at landfall. Analysis of anemometric measurements and mobile radar data during heavy convection shows the kinematic structure of the hurricane at landfall and the suspected influence of circulations aloft on surface winds and extreme surface gusts. Evidence of mesoscale vortices in the interior of the eyewall is also presented. Finally, the paper reports on an atmospheric sounding in the inner eyewall that produced an exceptionally large and potentially record value of precipitable water content for observed soundings in the continental United States.

Description: Shallow convection is a subgrid process in cloud-resolving models for which their grid box is larger than the size of small cumulus clouds (Cu). At the same time such Cu substantially affect radiation properties and thermodynamic parameters of the low atmosphere. The main microphysical parameters used for calculation of radiative properties of Cu in cloud-resolving models are liquid water content (LWC), effective droplet radius, and cloud fraction (CF). In this study, these parameters of fields of small, warm Cu are calculated using large-eddy simulations (LESs) performed using the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) with spectral bin microphysics. Despite the complexity of microphysical processes, several fundamental properties of Cu were found. First, despite the high variability of LWC and droplet concentration within clouds and between different clouds, the volume mean and effective radii per specific level vary only slightly. Second, the values of effective radius are close to those forming during adiabatic ascent of air parcels from cloud base. These findings allow for characterization of a cloud field by specific vertical profiles of effective radius and of mean liquid water content, which can be calculated using the theoretical profile of adiabatic liquid water content and the droplet concentration at cloud base. Using the results of these LESs, a simple parameterization of cloud-field-averaged vertical profiles of effective radius and of liquid water content is proposed for different aerosol and thermodynamic conditions. These profiles can be used for calculation of radiation properties of Cu fields in large-scale models. The role of adiabatic processes in the formation of microstructure of Cu is discussed.

Description: Several important developments in the 1960s showed the way to using spectral analysis to identify and describe atmospheric waves predicted by theory. Among these waves were normal-mode Rossby–Haurwitz waves (NMRHWs). What follows is, first, a brief outline of how the influence of these developments on analyses of data collected during the Line Islands Experiment led to work on NMRHWs. Next, theoretical expectations of free NMRHWs as described by Kasahara and Kasahara and Puri in the early 1980s are discussed. Finally, spectral analyses of observed vorticity fields are presented for easy comparison with those expectations. The similarity between these relatively simple model predictions and observations is unique in meteorology, where complexity is the general rule. Readily available routines coded in NCAR Command Language (NCL) were used to isolate NMRHWs. It should be noted that, while these routines provide approximations to the theoretical predictions, open-access software for exact solutions has become available.

Description: Representation of cloud microphysics is a key aspect of simulating clouds. From the early days of cloud modeling, numerical models have relied on an Eulerian approach for all cloud and thermodynamic and microphysics variables. Over time the sophistication of microphysics schemes has steadily increased, from simple representations of bulk masses of cloud and rain in each grid cell, to including different ice particle types and bulk hydrometeor concentrations, to complex schemes referred to as bin or spectral schemes that explicitly evolve the hydrometeor size distributions within each model grid cell. As computational resources grow, there is a clear trend toward wider use of bin schemes, including their use as benchmarks to develop and test simplified bulk schemes. We argue that continuing on this path brings fundamental challenges difficult to overcome. The Lagrangian particle-based probabilistic approach is a practical alternative in which the myriad of cloud and precipitation particles present in a natural cloud is represented by a judiciously selected ensemble of point particles called superdroplets or superparticles. The advantages of the Lagrangian particle-based approach when compared to the Eulerian bin methodology are explained, and the prospects of applying the method to more comprehensive cloud simulations—for instance, targeting deep convection or frontal cloud systems—are discussed.

Description: While writing is integral to science, it gets little attention in formal science education/academics. Such neglect has serious implications for nonnative English-speaking (NNES) scientists. An inability to write effective and efficient manuscripts can considerably delay the publication of new results while reflecting badly on the performance of individual scientists and on institutional productivity. In the multiethnic and multilingual Indian society, NNES scientists may face more linguistic complexities that inhibit clear and precise scientific writing. This article tries to address the predicament of scientific writing among NNES scientists in weather and climate sciences in India. Results from an informal e-mail survey with 80 respondents, mostly drawn from academic and research institutions in India, bolster anecdotal evidence of the difficulties NNES scientists have in writing about their science in research and popular publications. The responses also reflect high levels of interest these scientists have in addressing their communication difficulties. The survey results address the scientists’ perceptions and dilemmas in clear scientific writing as well as their perceived skills and training needs. The article also suggests possible solutions.

Description: Shallow convective clouds are common, occurring over many areas of the world, and are an important component in the atmospheric radiation budget. In addition to synoptic and mesoscale meteorological conditions, land–atmosphere interactions and aerosol–radiation–cloud interactions can influence the formation of shallow clouds and their properties. These processes exhibit large spatial and temporal variability and occur at the subgrid scale for all current climate, operational forecast, and cloud-system-resolving models; therefore, they must be represented by parameterizations. Uncertainties in shallow cloud parameterization predictions arise from many sources, including insufficient coincident data needed to adequately represent the coupling of cloud macrophysical and microphysical properties with inhomogeneity in the surface-layer, boundary layer, and aerosol properties. Predictions of the transition of shallow to deep convection and the onset of precipitation are also affected by errors in simulated shallow clouds. Coincident data are a key factor needed to achieve a more complete understanding of the life cycle of shallow convective clouds and to develop improved model parameterizations. To address these issues, the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols and Land Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) campaign was conducted near the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains site in north-central Oklahoma during the spring and summer of 2016. We describe the scientific objectives of HI-SCALE as well as the experimental approach, overall weather conditions during the campaign, and preliminary findings from the measurements. Finally, we discuss scientific gaps in our understanding of shallow clouds that can be addressed by analysis and modeling studies that use HI-SCALE data.

Description: A new analysis of sea surface temperature (SST) observations indicates notable uncertainty in observed decadal climate variability in the second half of the twentieth century, particularly during the decades following World War II. The uncertainties are revealed by exploring SST data binned separately for the two predominant measurement types: “engine-room intake” (ERI) and “bucket” measurements. ERI measurements indicate large decreases in global-mean SSTs from 1950 to 1975, whereas bucket measurements indicate increases in SST over this period before bias adjustments are applied but decreases after they are applied. The trends in the bias adjustments applied to the bucket data are larger than the global-mean trends during the period 1950–75, and thus the global-mean trends during this period derive largely from the adjustments themselves. This is critical, since the adjustments are based on incomplete information about the underlying measurement methods and are thus subject to considerable uncertainty. The uncertainty in decadal-scale variability is particularly pronounced over the North Pacific, where the sign of low-frequency variability through the 1950s to 1970s is different for each measurement type. The uncertainty highlighted here has important—but in our view widely overlooked—implications for the interpretation of observed decadal climate variability over both the Pacific and Atlantic basins during the mid-to-late twentieth century.

Description: A grand challenge from the wind energy industry is to provide reliable forecasts on mountain winds several hours in advance at microscale (∼100 m) resolution. This requires better microscale wind-energy physics included in forecasting tools, for which field observations are imperative. While mesoscale (∼1 km) measurements abound, microscale processes are not monitored in practice nor do plentiful measurements exist at this scale. After a decade of preparation, a group of European and U.S. collaborators conducted a field campaign during 1 May–15 June 2017 in Vale Cobrão in central Portugal to delve into microscale processes in complex terrain. This valley is nestled within a parallel double ridge near the town of Perdigão with dominant wind climatology normal to the ridges, offering a nominally simple yet natural setting for fundamental studies. The dense instrument ensemble deployed covered a ∼4 km × 4 km swath horizontally and ∼10 km vertically, with measurement resolutions of tens of meters and seconds. Meteorological data were collected continuously, capturing multiscale flow interactions from synoptic to microscales, diurnal variability, thermal circulation, turbine wake and acoustics, waves, and turbulence. Particularly noteworthy are the extensiveness of the instrument array, space–time scales covered, use of leading-edge multiple-lidar technology alongside conventional tower and remote sensors, fruitful cross-Atlantic partnership, and adaptive management of the campaign. Preliminary data analysis uncovered interesting new phenomena. All data are being archived for public use.

Description: Recent research has improved our knowledge and forecasting of high-shear, low-CAPE (HSLC) severe convection, which produces a large fraction of overnight and cool season tornadoes. However, limited near-storm observations have hindered progress in our understanding of HSLC environments and detection of severe potential within them. This article provides an overview of a research project in central North Carolina aimed toward increasing the number of observations in the vicinity of severe and nonsevere HSLC convection. Particularly unique aspects of this project are a) leadership by student volunteers from a university sounding club and b) real-time communication of observations to local National Weather Service Forecast Offices. In addition to an overview of sounding operations and goals, two case examples are provided that support the potential utility of supplemental sounding observations for operational, educational, and research purposes.

Description: To realize the promise of improved predictions of hazardous weather such as flash floods, wind storms, fog, and poor air quality from high-resolution mesoscale models, the forecast models must be initialized with an accurate representation of the current state of the atmosphere, but the lowest few kilometers are hardly accessible by satellite, especially in dynamically active conditions. We report on recent European developments in the exploitation of existing ground-based profiling instruments so that they are networked and able to send data in real time to forecast centers. The three classes of instruments are i) automatic lidars and ceilometers providing backscatter profiles of clouds, aerosols, dust, fog, and volcanic ash, the last two being especially important for air traffic control; ii) Doppler wind lidars deriving profiles of wind, turbulence, wind shear, wind gusts, and low-level jets; and iii) microwave radiometers estimating profiles of temperature and humidity in nearly all weather conditions. The project includes collaboration from 22 European countries and 15 European national weather services, which involves the implementation of common operating procedures, instrument calibrations, data formats, and retrieval algorithms. Currently, data from 265 ceilometers in 19 countries are being distributed in near–real time to national weather forecast centers; this should soon rise to many hundreds. One wind lidar is currently delivering real time data rising to 5 by the end of 2019, and the plan is to incorporate radiometers in 2020. Initial data assimilation tests indicate a positive impact of the new data.

Description: Beginning 7 April 2015, scientists at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) began producing daily, real-time, experimental, 10-member ensemble forecasts with 3-km horizontal grid spacing across the entire conterminous United States. Graphical forecast products were posted in real time to the Internet, where they attracted a large following from both forecasters and researchers across government, academia, and the private sector. Although these forecasts were initially planned to terminate after one year, the project was extended through 30 December 2017 because of the enthusiastic community response. This article details the motivation for the NCAR ensemble project and describes the project’s impacts throughout the meteorological community. Classroom and operational use of the NCAR ensemble are discussed in addition to the diverse application of NCAR ensemble output for research purposes. Furthermore, some performance statistics are provided, and the NCAR ensemble website and data visualization approach are described. We hope the NCAR ensemble’s success will motivate additional experimental forecast demonstrations that transcend current operational capabilities, as forward-looking forecast systems are needed to accelerate operational development and provide students, young scientists, and forecasters with glimpses of what future modeling systems may look like. Additionally, the NCAR ensemble dataset is publicly available and can be used for meaningful research endeavors concerning many meteorological topics.

Description: In recent years, hail accumulations from thunderstorms have occurred frequently enough to catch the attention of the National Weather Service, the general public, and news agencies. Despite the extreme nature of these thunderstorms, no mechanism is currently in place to obtain adequate reports, measurements, or forecasts of accumulated hail depth. To better identify and forecast hail accumulations, the Colorado Hail Accumulation from Thunderstorms (CHAT) project was initiated in 2016 with the goals of collecting improved and more frequent hail depth reports on the ground as well as studying characteristics of storms that produce hail accumulations in Colorado. A desired outcome of this research is to identify predictors for hail-producing thunderstorms typically occurring along the Colorado Front Range that might be used as operational nowcast products in the future. During the 2016 convective season, we asked amateur meteorologists to send general information, photos, and videos on hail depth using social media. They submitted over 58 reports in Colorado with information on location, time, depth, and areal coverage of hail accumulations. We have analyzed dual-polarization radar and lightning mapping array data from 32 thunderstorms in Colorado, which produced between 0.5 and 50 cm of hail accumulation on the ground, to identify characteristics unique to storms with hail accumulations. This preliminary analysis shows how enhanced in-cloud hail presence and surface accumulation can be tracked throughout the lifetime of a thunderstorm using dual-polarization radar and lightning data, and how hail accumulation events are associated with large in-cloud ice water content, long hailfall duration, or a combination of these.

Description: We examine the trajectories of four historical markers displaced during an enhanced Fujita scale 2 (EF2) tornado at the Fort Pulaski National Monument located on Cockspur Island, east of Savannah in southeast Georgia. The careful work of National Park Service employees in cataloguing the origin and landing points of the debris allows for an unusually accurate analysis of tornado debris trajectories for heavy objects. These markers, weighing around 68 kg (150 lb) each, traveled intact for distances of up to 220 m (750 ft). One of the historical markers was fractured into at least three pieces, the larger of which traveled 300 m (1,000 ft). Understanding the travel for these relatively heavy items is important, as they are similar in weight to household appliances that could commonly be part of a tornado debris field.

Description: Alfred Wegener (1880–1930) was a leading geophysicist, atmospheric scientist, and an Arctic explorer who is mainly remembered today for his contributions to the theory of continental drift. Less well known are his contributions to research on tornadoes in Europe. Published 100 years ago, Wegener’s 1917 book Wind- und Wasserhosen in Europa (Tornadoes and Waterspouts in Europe) is an impressive synthesis of knowledge on tornadoes and is considered the first modern pan-European tornado climatology, with 258 reports from 1456 to 1913. Unfortunately, Wegener’s book was overlooked after the 1950s amid declining interest in tornadoes by European researchers and meteorologists. The recent revival of tornado studies in Europe invites a reflection on Wegener’s book. Using a relatively small dataset, Wegener was able to describe characteristics of tornadoes (e.g., direction of movement, speed, rotation, formation mechanism), as well as their frequency of occurrence and climatology, comparable with the results from modern tornado climatologies. Wegener’s lasting scientific contributions to tornado research are presented in the context of European research on this topic. Specifically, his book showed the utility of reports from citizen scientists and inspired other researchers, namely, Johannes Letzmann, who continued to study European tornadoes after Wegener’s death.

Description: A major experimental drought research project entitled “Mechanisms and Early Warning of Drought Disasters over Northern China” (DroughtEX_China) was launched by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China in 2015. The objective of DroughtEX_China is to investigate drought disaster mechanisms and provide early-warning information via multisource observations and multiscale modeling. Since the implementation of DroughtEX_China, a comprehensive V-shape in situ observation network has been established to integrate different observational experiment systems for different landscapes, including crops in northern China. In this article, we introduce the experimental area, observational network configuration, ground- and air-based observing/testing facilities, implementation scheme, and data management procedures and sharing policy. The preliminary observational and numerical experimental results show that the following are important processes for understanding and modeling drought disasters over arid and semiarid regions: 1) the soil water vapor–heat interactions that affect surface soil moisture variability, 2) the effect of intermittent turbulence on boundary layer energy exchange, 3) the drought–albedo feedback, and 4) the transition from stomatal to nonstomatal control of plant photosynthesis with increasing drought severity. A prototype of a drought monitoring and forecasting system developed from coupled hydroclimate prediction models and an integrated multisource drought information platform is also briefly introduced. DroughtEX_China lasted for four years (i.e., 2015–18) and its implementation now provides regional drought monitoring and forecasting, risk assessment information, and a multisource data-sharing platform for drought adaptation over northern China, contributing to the global drought information system (GDIS).

Description: Fronts can be computed from gridded datasets such as numerical model output and reanalyses, resulting in automated surface frontal charts and climatologies. Defining automated fronts requires quantities (e.g., potential temperature, equivalent potential temperature, wind shifts) and kinematic functions (e.g., gradient, thermal front parameter, and frontogenesis). Which are the most appropriate to use in different applications remains an open question. This question is investigated using two quantities (potential temperature and equivalent potential temperature) and three functions (magnitude of the horizontal gradient, thermal front parameter, and frontogenesis) from both the context of real-time surface analysis and climatologies from 38 years of reanalyses. The strengths of potential temperature to identify fronts are that it represents the thermal gradients and its direct association with the kinematics and dynamics of fronts. Although climatologies using potential temperature show features associated with extratropical cyclones in the storm tracks, climatologies using equivalent potential temperature include moisture gradients within air masses, most notably at low latitudes that are unrelated to the traditional definition of a front, but may be representative of a broader definition of an airmass boundary. These results help to explain previously published frontal climatologies featuring maxima of fronts in the subtropics and tropics. The best function depends upon the purpose of the analysis, but Petterssen frontogenesis is attractive, both for real-time analysis and long-term climatologies, in part because of its link to the kinematics and dynamics of fronts. Finally, this study challenges the conventional definition of a front as an airmass boundary and suggests that a new, dynamically based definition would be useful for some applications.

Description: Tropical cyclones are some of the most devastating natural hazards and the “three beasts”—Harvey, Irma, and Maria—during the Atlantic hurricane season 2017 are recent examples. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is working on fulfilling its 2016–25 strategy in which early warnings for extreme events will be made possible by a high-resolution Earth system ensemble forecasting system. Several verification reports acknowledge deterministic and probabilistic tropical cyclone tracks from ECMWF as world leading. However, producing reliable intensity forecasts is still a difficult task for the ECMWF global forecasting model, especially regarding maximum wind speed. This article will put the ECMWF strategy into a tropical cyclone perspective and highlight some key research activities, using Harvey, Irma, and Maria as examples. We describe the observation usage around tropical cyclones in data assimilation and give examples of their impact. From a model perspective, we show the impact of running at 5-km resolution and also the impact of applying ocean coupling. Finally, we discuss the future challenges to tackle the errors in intensity forecasts for tropical cyclones.

Description: In the early days of television, most weathercasters lacked formal training in meteorology and instead relied on forecasts from other sources. Over the decades, degreed meteorologists became more common. A third category has recently emerged: people with certificates in broadcast meteorology from Mississippi State University (MSU). This certification and the related broadcast meteorology degrees from MSU provide weathercasters with an understanding of meteorology without advanced calculus or differential equations. This study makes no judgment on how a weathercaster’s education background might affect their on-air presentations but notes these courses are required by most guidelines for meteorological degrees, as well as the American Meteorological Society's Certified Broadcast Meteorologist (CBM) program. This study conducts a unique survey of television meteorologists using the education history listed on their station's website or LinkedIn. The backgrounds of 421 meteorologists were examined with the equivalent of a 94% response rate. Overall, 21% had a broadcast meteorology degree or certification from MSU, 64% had a traditional meteorology degree from MSU or another institution, 2% minored in meteorology or had military training, and 12% listed no or a partial education background in the field. Another way of viewing the data is that the MSU broadcast program alone has nearly as many graduates as the four largest traditional programs combined in our sample. These results were further broken down for various subsets of weathercasters, resulting in statistically significant variations by market size, region, ownership group, and gender.

Description: Researchers are producing an ever greater number of web-based climate data and analysis tools in support of natural resource research and management. Yet the apparent absence or underreporting of evaluation in the development of these applications has raised questions as to whether, by whom, and for what they are utilized, and, relatedly, whether they meet the rationale for their development. This paper joins recent efforts to address these questions by introducing one approach to evaluation—developmental evaluation—and reporting on its use in the evaluation of the Southwest Climate and Environmental Information Collaborative (SCENIC). A web interface under development at the Western Regional Climate Center, SCENIC provides access to climate data and analysis tools to environmental scientists in support of natural resource research and management in the southwestern United States. Evaluation findings highlight subtlety in the improvements necessary for ensuring a useful and usable application that could not have been ascertained in the absence of end-user feedback. We therefore urge researchers to systematically evaluate web-based climate data and analysis tools in the interest of ensuring their usefulness, usability, and fulfillment of the proposed rationale. In so doing, we recommend that researchers test and apply established evaluation frameworks, thereby engaging end users directly in the process of application development.

Description: This article presents a brief account of scientific research into solar geoengineering in India in the last decade. In recent years, solar geoengineering has been proposed as an option to ameliorate the detrimental impacts of climate change in case the required emissions reductions do not take place rapidly. Hundreds of research papers have been published in the last decade by both natural and social scientists on the feasibility, effectiveness, cost, and risks, and the ethical, legal, social, political, and governance dimensions of geoengineering. Most of this research is conducted in the developed world, and very little research or discussion has taken place in the global South. However, it has been argued in several forums that the developing world should have a central role in solar-geoengineering research, discussion, and evaluation for political and moral reasons. We present here a brief account of the Indian scientific research into solar geoengineering. Climate modeling constitutes the major component of this geoengineering-relevant climate science research. The recent funding initiative by the Department of Science and Technology—the main funding agency for scientific research in India—in support of geoengineering modeling research and its efforts to bring natural, social, and political scientists together for an evaluation of solar geoengineering at meetings are also discussed. Finally, the directions for future scientific research into geoengineering in India are a lso discussed.

Description: During winter 2016/17, California experienced numerous heavy precipitation events linked to land-falling atmospheric rivers (ARs) that filled reservoirs and ended a severe, multiyear drought. These events also caused floods, mudslides, and debris flows, resulting in major socioeconomic disruptions. During 2–11 February 2017, persistent heavy precipitation in the northern Sierra Nevada culminated in a rapid increase in the water level on Lake Oroville, necessitating the activation of an emergency spillway for the first time since the Oroville Dam was installed and forcing the evacuation of 188,000 people. The precipitation, which mostly fell as rain due to elevated freezing levels, was focused on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada in connection with orographic forcing linked to two successive ARs. Heavy rain fell on saturated soils and a snowpack produced by antecedent storms and thereby resulted in excessive runoff into Lake Oroville that led to a damaged spillway and complicated reservoir operations.

Description: The best way to train the next wave of observational talent is through direct experience. In 2012 and again in 2014, students at St. Cloud State University (SCSU) welcomed deployments of professional atmospheric research equipment, allowing them to support and execute field projects. The Boundary Structure Experiments with Central Minnesota Profiling (BaSE CaMP) projects brought the Mobile Integrated Sounding System (MISS) from the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s (NCAR) Earth Observing Laboratory (EOL) to SCSU for a National Science Foundation–funded educational deployment. Its diverse instrumentation and ability to travel to interesting weather events and locations makes MISS extremely valuable for teaching students about both weather experiments and measurement strategies. In addition to the university project, outreach activities with MISS took place at high schools, regional conferences, and public events. MISS carries four instruments: a boundary layer wind profiler, a radio acoustic sounding system (RASS), radiosondes, and an instrumented 10-m tower. The type and time of MISS deployments were quite varied so students could participate around their class schedule, jobs, and other commitments. Each year the project had periods of fixed operations and mobile activity, where MISS was relocated to best observe current weather conditions. BaSE CaMP operations and results were incorporated into many classes in the meteorology program at SCSU. The original course request was for Radar and Satellite Meteorology, but other activities contributed to Atmospheric Dynamics, Physical Meteorology, and Meteorological Analysis Software courses.

Description: The ability of global climate models to simulate accurately marine stratiform clouds continues to challenge the atmospheric science community. These cloud types, which account for a large uncertainty in Earth’s radiation budget, are generally difficult to characterize due to their shallowness and spatial inhomogeneity. Previous work investigating marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds off the California coast has focused on clouds that form under the typical northerly flow regime during the boreal warm season. From about June through September, however, these northerly winds may reverse and become southerly as part of a coastally trapped disturbance (CTD). As the flow surges northward, it is accompanied by a broad cloud deck. Because these events are difficult to forecast, in situ observations of CTDs are few and far between, and little is known about their cloud physical properties. A climatological perspective of 23 CTD events—spanning the years from 2004 to 2016—is presented using several data products, including model reanalyses, buoys, and satellites. For the first time, satellite retrievals suggest that CTD cloud decks may play a unique role in the radiation budget due to a combination of aerosol sources that enhance cloud droplet number concentration and reduce cloud droplet effective radius. This particular type of cloud regime should therefore be treated differently than that which is more commonly found in the summertime months over the northeast Pacific Ocean. The potential influence of a coherent wind stress cycle on sea surface temperatures and sea salt aerosol is also explored.

Description: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play vital roles in the western United States and related regions globally, not only producing heavy precipitation and flooding, but also providing beneficial water supply. This paper introduces a scale for the intensity and impacts of ARs. Its utility may be greatest where ARs are the most impactful storm type and hurricanes, nor’easters, and tornadoes are nearly nonexistent. Two parameters dominate the hydrologic outcomes and impacts of ARs: vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) and AR duration [i.e., the duration of at least minimal AR conditions (IVT ≥ 250 kg m–1 s–1)]. The scale uses an observed or predicted time series of IVT at a given geographic location and is based on the maximum IVT and AR duration at that point during an AR event. AR categories 1–5 are defined by thresholds for maximum IVT (3-h average) of 250, 500, 750, 1,000, and 1,250 kg m–1 s–1, and by IVT exceeding 250 kg m–1 s–1 continuously for 24–48 h. If the AR event duration is less than 24 h, it is downgraded by one category. If it is longer than 48 h, it is upgraded one category. The scale recognizes that weak ARs are often mostly beneficial because they can enhance water supply and snowpack, while stronger ARs can become mostly hazardous, for example, if they strike an area with antecedent conditions that enhance vulnerability, such as burn scars or wet conditions. Extended durations can enhance impacts. Short durations can mitigate impacts.

Description: El Niño and La Niña, the warm and cold phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), cause significant year-to-year disruptions in global climate, including in the atmosphere, oceans, and cryosphere. Australia is one of the countries where its climate, including droughts and flooding rains, is highly sensitive to the temporal and spatial variations of ENSO. The dramatic impacts of ENSO on the environment, society, health, and economies worldwide make the application of reliable ENSO predictions a powerful way to manage risks and resources. An improved understanding of ENSO dynamics in a changing climate has the potential to lead to more accurate and reliable ENSO predictions by facilitating improved forecast systems. This motivated an Australian national workshop on ENSO dynamics and prediction that was held in Sydney, Australia, in November 2017. This workshop followed the aftermath of the 2015/16 extreme El Niño, which exhibited different characteristics to previous extreme El Niños and whose early evolution since 2014 was challenging to predict. This essay summarizes the collective workshop perspective on recent progress and challenges in understanding ENSO dynamics and predictability and improving forecast systems. While this essay discusses key issues from an Australian perspective, many of the same issues are important for other ENSO-affected countries and for the international ENSO research community.

Description: The daily precipitation data generated by dynamical models, including regional climate models, generally suffer from biases in distribution and spatial dependence. These are serious flaws if the data are intended to be applied to hydrometeorological studies. This paper proposes a scheme for correcting the biases in both aspects simultaneously. The proposed scheme consists of two steps: an aggregation step and a disaggregation step. The first one aims to obtain a smoothed precipitation pattern that must be retained in correcting the bias, and the second aims to make up for the deficient spatial variation of the smoothed pattern. In both steps, the Gaussian copula plays important roles since it not only provides a feasible way to correct the spatial correlation of model simulations but also can be extended for large-dimension cases by imposing a covariance function on its correlation structure. The proposed scheme is applied to the daily precipitation data generated by a regional climate model. We can verify that the biases are satisfactorily corrected by examining several statistics of the corrected data.

Description: In the past two decades, more than 150 jet engine power-loss and damage events have been attributed to a phenomenon known as ice crystal icing (ICI). Ingestion of large numbers of ice particles into the engine core are thought to be responsible for these events, which typically occur at high altitudes near large convective systems in tropical air masses. In recent years, scientists, engineers, aviation regulators, and airlines from around the world have collaborated to better understand the relevant meteorological processes associated with ICI events, solve critical engineering problems, develop new certification standards, and devise mitigation strategies for the aviation industry. One area of research is the development of nowcasting techniques based on available remote sensing technology and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to identify areas of high ice water content (IWC) and enable the provision of alerts to the aviation industry. Multiple techniques have been developed using geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite products, NWP model fields, and ground-based radar data as the basis for high-IWC products. Targeted field experiments in tropical regions with high incidence of ICI events have provided data for product validation and refinement of these methods. Beginning in 2015, research teams have assembled at a series of annual workshops to exchange ideas and standardize methods for evaluating performance of high-IWC detection products. This paper provides an overview of the approaches used and the current skill for identifying high-IWC conditions. Recommendations for future work in this area are also presented.

Description: A series of large wildfires began over the terrain north of San Francisco, California, during the evening of 8 October 2017 and spread across nearly 250,000 acres, including areas near the towns of Santa Rosa and Napa. These “Wine Country” wildfires were the most destructive in California history, with 44 deaths; the loss of 9,000 buildings; damage to approximately 21,000 structures; $10 billion of insured losses; and substantially greater total economic loss. This paper describes the synoptic and mesoscale conditions that were associated with the wildfires, with strong, easterly “Diablo” winds playing a central role in both initiating and supporting the fires. The climatological conditions preceding the fires are reviewed, including near-normal precipitation and above-normal temperatures during the summer, as well as much above-normal precipitation the previous winter, which led to abundant dry grass that provided fuel for the wind-driven fires. High-resolution meteorological modeling realistically simulated the strong winds associated with this event. Importantly, operational mesoscale forecast models provided excellent forecasts of the high winds several days in advance. It appears that a vulnerable power system, urbanization of fire-prone areas, flammable invasive species, and poor communication of dangerous conditions contributed to this catastrophic event. The potential for mitigating or preventing such destructive wildfires using skillful weather prediction is examined, as well as the possible role of global warming.

Description: The complex orography of South Asia, including both the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau, renders the regional climate complex. How this climate, especially the monsoon circulations, will respond to the global warming process is important given the large population of the region. In a first step toward a contribution to the understanding of the expected impacts, a series of dynamically downscaled instrumental-era climate simulations for the Indian subcontinent are described and will serve as a basis for comparison against global warming simulations. Global simulations based upon the Community Earth System Model (CESM) are employed to drive a dynamical downscaling pipeline in which the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is employed as regional climate model, in a nested configuration with two domains at 30- and 10-km resolution, respectively. The entire ensemble was integrated for 15 years (1980–94), with the global model representing a complete integration from the onset of Northern Hemisphere industrialization. Compared to CESM, WRF significantly improves the representation of orographic precipitation. Precipitation extremes are also characterized using extreme value analysis. To investigate the sensitivity of the South Asian summer monsoon simulation to different parameterization schemes, a small physics ensemble is employed. The Noah multiphysics (Noah-MP) land surface scheme reduces the summer warm bias compared to the Noah land surface scheme. Compared with the Kain–Fritsch cumulus scheme, the Grell-3 scheme produces an increased moisture bias at the first western rain barrier, whereas the Tiedtke scheme produces less precipitation over the subcontinent than observed. Otherwise the improvement of fit to the observations derived from applying the downscaling methodology is highly significant.