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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Boston, USA and Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishers Inc.
    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: This paper shows how social and economic change impact well-being in Pacific Northwest counties from 1970–1990. Economic and social well-being, measured as income growth and low income inequality, are modeled using net migration data and measures of social and economic restructuring. In the 1970s there is an inverse relationship between population growth and income growth, while during both decades the retail sector contributes to income growth. Amenity or urban-adjacent counties show the most growth, in both population and employment, but also have the greatest income inequality. Several factors contributing to income growth also contribute to greater income inequality. Migration flows for each decade also illustrate the associations between restructuring, well-being, and population growth. Populations in counties with net out-migration over both decades are aging, but show greater income growth and lower inequality in the 1970s followed by lower income growth in the 1980s. Net in-migration over both decades is associated with lower income growth and greater inequality in the 1970s, but these counties are substantially better off economically in the 1980s and they maintain a balanced age structure through migration of different age cohorts over the two decades. This research provides needed work on the connections between social and economic change in the context of the Pacific Northwest.
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Boston, USA and Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishers Inc.
    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Books reviewed: The Work of Cities, by Susan E. Clarke and Gary L. Gaile Reconstructing the Regional Economy: Industrial Transformation and Regional Development in Slovakia, by AdrianSmith The Associational Economy: Firms, Regions, and Innovation, byPhilip Cooke and Kevin Morgan Reconstructing Chinatown, by Jan Lin
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Boston, USA and Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishers Inc.
    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Data on trade flows between states and provinces in the year 1992 are analyzed in order to explore the regional structure of Canada–U.S.trade. An index of integration based on the these data shows significant variation in levels of interdependence across pairs of regions on opposite sides of the border. Most of this variation appears to stem from patterns of intermediate goods trade. Further analysis is conducted to distinguish between pairs of regions with similar industrial structures which are highly integrated due to intra-industry trade and pairs with complementary industrial structures that are highly integrated due to inter-industry trade. The friction of distance appears to play a major role in distinguishing between these two types of relationships. Specifically, trade can be quite strong between regions with similar industrial structures, but this trade tends to be limited to regions in close geographic proximity. As the distance between regions increases, trade based on different but complementary industrial structures becomes increasingly dominant.
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Boston, USA and Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishers Inc.
    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Although it is commonly accepted that investing in technology and research and development (R&D) is a basic catalyst for the genesis of economic activity, there is less consensus on the spatial significance and returns of the R&D effort for regional and local economies. It is often argued that innovation resulting from allocating local resources to R&D is likely to spill over to other areas, especially in the framework of open national economies. Hence, the incentive to free-ride increases at the subnational level. This paper shows, however, that in the Western European regional context, regions with higher resources devoted to R&D tend to grow at a greater pace than the remaining spaces. Nevertheless, the passage from R&D to innovation and growth is not achieved in a similar way across Europe. Local social conditions play an important role in the formation of what can be defined as ‘innovation prone’ and ‘innovation averse’ societies. Innovation prone regions are those featured by a weak social filter, which facilitates the transformation of innovation into growth. Conversely, regions burdened by rigid labor markets, shortage of skills, outward migration of able individuals, and an aging of the workforce are less prone to assimilate innovation and to transform it into economic activity. They make up the innovation averse societies in Europe.
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: This paper takes seriously the idea that international trade has played an important role in explaining both some convergence between developed economies as well as rising inequalities at the personal level. Previous studies used traditional trade theory as a reference framework. The empirical consensus is now that differences in factor endowment explain at best a small fraction of rising wage inequalities. This argument, by contrast, builds on labor specialization and increasing returns. Deeper economic integration allows trade in differentiated intermediate goods and primary tasks, thus transforming local increasing returns into global increasing returns. This pushes towards geographical equalization. At the same time, deeper integration also increases the size of the pool of available skilled workers. This may lead them to a‘technological secession’as it makes more skill-demanding technologies more profitable. Technological secession in turn fosters wage inequalities at the personal level.
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: The effects of state public capital investment on economic growth is an important question that has been the focus of a recent substantial research effort. But the majority of this research has ignored these investments’influence on the intra-state pattern of economic activity. Yet if external agglomeration economies are important determinants of growth, then investments may indirectly affect growth by fostering or discouraging agglomeration. This paper discusses the effect of state infrastructure investments on the distribution of employment within states and the implications of these spatial effects for aggregate state employment growth. Preliminary empirical results suggest that state infrastructure investments tend to redistribute growth from areas of dense employment to other parts of the state. This redistribution may diminish agglomeration benefits offered by cities, which has the potential to reduce state growth. The paper concludes with a discussion of implications of the work for research and policy.
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: This article examines diverse transnational corporations’(TNC) strategies in response to labor shock and specific conditions that enhance TNCs’local embedding in export processing zones (EPZs). The goal of this paper is to understand the rationale behind TNCs’choice between spatial differentiation (mobility) and spatial fmity (immobility). Based on field research and data analysis from the Masan Free Export Zone (MAFEZ) in South Korea, it is argued that TNCs do not always withdraw from EPZs in reaction to wage costs and growing labor militancy. Higher labor costs can be overridden by other advantages: existing physicalkocial inhstructure, tax benefits, fured assets, localized labor skills and technology, cultural proximity, and advantages from geographical proximity to market, raw materials, and TNCs’headquarters. This paper criticizes the overly simplistic view of capital mobility. However, TNCs that choose to remain in the EPZs use both upgrading and cheapening strategies, and their remaining does not necessarily result in upgrading labor skills or improving labor conditions. This article raises a critical question of the firm-centered view of the global enterprise literature and the local embeddedness literature of TNCs on workers’welfare. It emphasizes the important role of firms and of unions in training workers for purposes of technology and skill upgrading.
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Overall total inequality for state per capita personal income as well as total inequality for nonmetropolitan and metropolitan areas are examined for the period 1969 to 1995. In each case, the total inequality was partitioned into between-and within-region variations. Statistical testing shows no perceptible differences between the major categories, nonmetropolitan and metropolitan. Further, this study uses a model to test for narrowing of income gaps within these categories. It was found that for both nonmetropolitan and metropolitan, a general trend toward equality was evidenced during the early 1970s decade. In that decade, the nonmetropolitan areas’incomes approached the metropolitan areas’incomes but showed significant divergences in the 1980s, followed again by a narrowing of the gaps in the 1990s.
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Boston, USA and Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishers Inc.
    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: In this paper two basic theories within spatial industrial dynamics—the filtering-down theory and the spatial product cycle theory—are used to explain processes of spatial decentralization and centralization of economic activities. In particular, a case is made for the idea that employment decentralization should be expected not only for growing and maturing manufacturing industries but also for growing and maturing service industries. Based upon this theoretical framework the empirical part of the paper analysis the spatial behavior during the period 1980 to 1993 of the employment in a group of 19 industries in Sweden—the so-called urban growth industries—with an expected high potential for employment decentralization. Most of the industries exhibited the expected pattern of employment decentralization with the larger medium-sized regions as the main winners. A shift-share analysis shows that the overall magnitudes of the competitive shift components are rather small and that, hence, Sweden during the period 1980–1993 did not experience a drastic change in the spatial distribution of its urban growth industries.
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Boston, USA and Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishers Inc.
    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Residential satisfaction is not only an important component of individuals' quality of life but also determines the way they respond to residential environment. An understanding of the factors that facilitate a satisfied or dissatisfied response can play a critical part in making successful housing policies. This study reinvestigates the effects of housing, neighborhood, and household characteristics on individuals' satisfaction with both dwelling and neighborhood, in order to reconcile the inconsistencies in the previous research. The empirical analysis uses data drawn from the American Housing Survey (AHS) and ordered logit models (OLM). OLM is more appropriate than the widely-used regression technique in such analysis due to the ordinal nature of the dependent variables representing satisfaction. The results show that residential satisfaction is a complex construct, affected by a variety of environmental and socio-demographic variables. While the actual effects of the variables by and large confirm earlier findings in the literature, significant differences between the results from the OLM and regression models were found. This indicates that regression models should be used with caution and their results accepted with a grain of salt.
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  • 11
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Boston, USA and Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishers Inc.
    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Open economy multipliers, at the community level, capture only a portion of the system-wide impact of changes in local autonomous spending. Multiplier effects for the central place system will include the community-specific multiplier, where the autonomous expenditure was initiated, plus all of the cross-community multiplier effects generated through linkages among communities in the hierarchy. Import leakages, in the form of shopping at higher levels, result in “filtering up” of expenditure increases initiated at lower levels of the system.In an earlier paper (Olfert and Stabler 1994), community-level multipliers for a central place system in the Great Plains were estimated. In this paper, the distribution of direct and induced spending, resulting from autonomous spending increases initiated at particular levels of a central place hierarchy, is derived and empirically estimated over all levels of the hierarchy. Building on (1) own-community level multipliers, (2) an exhaustive set of cross-community multipliers are derived and empirically estimated. The combination of own- and cross-community multipliers produces (3) system-wide multipliers that show the system-wide impact of spending initiated at any level in the hierarchy. Finally, (4) level-specific impact multipliers resulting from autonomous spending originating at any (every) level in the system are calculated.Results indicate that the induced impact of autonomous expenditure increases anywhere in the system will be the greatest at the top of the hierarchy, that autonomous increases at higher levels have a larger local impact than they do at lower levels, and that equal expenditure increases across the hierarchy will have a disproportionate impact at the top of the hierarchy, as well, dueto a combination of higher own-community multipliers and spending up the hierarchy by residents of lower level centers.
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  • 12
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Boston, USA and Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishers Inc.
    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Utilizing newly assembled data on per capita metropolitan investments from the Census of Governments - Finance Statistics, this paper assesses the effects of local (i.e., non-state and non-federal) government investments in public capital on metropolitan factor productivity. Differences in productivity across metropolitan areas are modeled as a Hicks-neutral production function shifter, and the analysis covers 261 metropolitan areas of the United States for the period 1977 to 1992. These findings indicate that there is no significant relationship between levels of public capital investments and the levels of metropolitan productivity for the periods 1977, 1982, 1987, and 1992; however, a positive and significant relationship is found between the growth rate of local government investments in public capital and the growth rate of metropolitan productivity for the fifteen-year period.
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  • 13
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Foreign exports are claiming growing shares of US. state economic production. While growth of foreign exports is often cited as a driving force for state economic growth, little attention has been paid in prior research to the issue of Granger causality between foreign exports and economic performance at the state level. This study examines Granger causality between foreign manufacturing export growth and state manufacturing performance during the period from 1980 to 1991. Results indicate that, at the aggregate level, there is a bi-directional Granger causal relationship between foreign exports and state manufacturing activity. Among the individual industrial sectors, results are more mixed, however, with sectors displaying either export-led growth, reverse Granger causality, or in some instances, negative Granger causality.
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  • 14
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: A modification of the Boamet model of local economic change is developed that links the growth of urban nodes in functional economic regions to employment and population change in the rural hinterlands of these regions. The two-equation model uses labor market and residential zone observations that are consistent with commuter fields around each rural community in the regions studied. The model parameters are estimated for 204 Danish rural municipalities, for 3515 rural communes in six regions of Eastern France, and for 268 rural census tracts in South Carolina. Results indicate that urban nodal spread effects are often significant and tend to dominate urban backwash impacts on rural communities. Accordingly, rural communities need to be concerned with the economic fortunes of their urban nodes and with policies that affect the pattern of urban growth between urban center and the urban fringe.
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  • 15
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
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  • 16
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    Electronic Resource
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Several empirical studies have estimated the value of agricultural land as open space to local residents. An important goup of individuals that may be affected by the loss of agricultural land are visitors to a region. The value of ranchland to tourists visiting a resort town in the Rocky Mountains is estimated through a travel cost model that combines information on observed behavior data from actual trips with contingent behavior data on intended current visitation if the resource were converted to urban and resort uses. The value of ranch open space to tourists is the gain or loss in consumer surplus derived from a visit to the study area attributable to the resource. A random effects Poisson regression model is estimated because of the panel nature of the data, accounting for the correlation of the multiple responses from heterogeneous individuals. Twenty-five percent of the sample would reduce visitation and 23 percent of the sample would increase visitation if ranch open space were converted to urban and resort uses. The overall effect of converting ranch open space to resort and urban uses is no net change in average consumer surplus per trip for summer tourists in general.
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  • 17
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    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: The welfare effects of public versus private waste disposal with and without flow controls are analyzed. The pricing of private waste disposal services is modeled as being bounded above by the public entity's average disposal cost, but constrained by potential entry of private competitors. It is found that once a publicly owned disposal facility has been built, waste generators are almost always better off if their local government has flow control authority. This results from the necessity of covering the fixed costs of the public facility once it has been built, in conjunction with the expected pricing behavior of private firms.
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  • 18
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    Boston, USA and Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishers Inc.
    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: This paper positions time in the center of spatial economic analysis, with a particular view on travel speed in transport behavior. The issue of ‘slow motion’ is at present very timely and has led to a new concept in transport analysis, viz. ‘time pioneer’. Such a person is prepared to give up part of his scarce time for other, as yet unknown purposes. This attitude might generate ‘slow motion’ behavior. The paper aims to critically review the concept of a time pioneer from a broad perspective on the socio-economic meaning of time in our globalizing society. The viability of time pioneering behavior is next empirically tested by means of an extensive survey among travelers in the Netherlands. A new modeling experiment, viz. rough set analysis, is carried out in order to deal with empirical survey data in a smallsample context. On the basis of the empirical results, it is concluded that, while ‘slow motion’ is seemingly an appealing socio-psychological travel mode, the share of time pioneers among actual travelers is rather low.
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  • 19
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Boston, USA and Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishers Inc.
    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Traditional explanations of interaction (trade) in city systems fail to capture the breadth and complexity of extraregional markets in the producer services. Building on market-process theory, which argues that markets are adaptive and rarely in equilibrium, the development of extraregional trade in the producer services was investigated as a form of firm-level entrepreneurship. While firms' entrepreneurial behaviors are influenced by a variety of internal characteristics, such as entrepreneurial spirit, size, age, and ownership, it is argued that a firm's location is an important conditioning factor on the degree of success it achieves with market expansion. The hypothesis is evaluated using spatial market extent data developed from a survey of 615 producer service firms located in 16 Midwest cities. A firm's degree of entrepreneurship is indexed by a qualitative assessment of its marketing activities, ranging from “aggressive” to “none.” Cox proportional hazards models, in a spatial-analog of survival analysis, were used to examine the influence of entrepreneurship on the spatial extents of firms' markets. The results confirm that location, more so than firm size or age, has a significant influence on the spatial extent of a firm's extraregional trade. The influence of location is generally complex: surfacing directly as a market scale effect, and indirectly as a conditioning factor on the success of a firm's entrepreneurial behavior. The results suggest that extraregional trade in producers services is predicated on more than just production cost (i.e., internal or external scale economies) or distribution cost (i.e., distance) factors, and that behavioral theories of the market can provide meaningful insight into the geography of market interaction.
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  • 20
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    Boston, USA and Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishers Inc.
    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Land use planning often is implemented to control development on forests and farmland, but its impact on land use remains untested. Previous studies evaluating such programs have relied on anecdotal evidence rather than on data describing actual land use change. A model of land use is specified as a function of socioeconomic factors, land rent, and landowners' characteristics, to examine how well Oregon's land use planning program has protected forests and farmland from development. The empirical model describes the probability that forests and farmland in western Oregon and western Washington were developed to residential, commercial, or industrial uses, before and after Oregon's land use planning program took effect. Land use data are provided by the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis program. Results suggest that Oregon's land use planning program has concentrated development within urban growth boundaries since its implementation, but its success at reducing the likelihood of development on resource lands located within forest use and exclusive farm use zones remains uncertain.
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  • 21
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    Boston, USA and Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishers Inc.
    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: The relation between biomedical firms and their metropolitan region location in Atlanta, Georgia is examined as an empirical test of both innovative milieu agglomeration theory and place specific strategies for life science companies in the Deep South. This sectoral analysis utilizes questionnaires and targeted interviews to highlight the economic development role of real estate in suburban employment and residence sites (SEARS) and the intra-metropolitan directional migration of firms. Clustering of related industries is fostered by a shortage of appropriately configured laboratory and office space at the intermediate stage of the business growth cycle, encouraging information sharing and cooperative behavior via proximity by necessity. Lack of a key networking individual or mediating organization critically retards development of this potential growth engine.
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  • 22
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    Boston, USA and Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishers Inc.
    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: This study employs a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Ohio to evaluate the effect of a state corporate tax cut. The innovative features of this study are (1) the use of the cost of capital concept, (2) dynamic adjustment mechanisms in factor markets, and (3) incorporation of public goods in the household utility function and firms' production functions. The model results indicate that the stimulatory effects of tax cuts for economic development are muted when effects of public expenditures on the productivity of private capital and the migration of households are taken into account. This is because the reduction in public expenditure due to the tax cut implies (1) lower productivity for private industries and (2) lower levels of labor in-migration during the initial several periods after the policy shock as compared to the pre-policy sequence of equilibria. This study shows that evaluation of tax policy without simultaneously considering the effect of public goods can be misleading.
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  • 23
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    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Interest in the use of adjustment models has recently increased as analysts have come to see the value of these models in the study of regional growth processes. Adjustment models are especially useful in clarifying the nature and direction of population-employment interactions. However, other models of regional growth suggest that employment should not be treated as a single homogeneous variable, as is the usual assumption in regional adjustment models. This paper looks at the issue of employment disaggregation, and suggests that adjustment models can be alternatively specified by making use of economic base theory to separate employment into at least two broad sectors. Alternative economic base specifications are tested using data for the nonmetropolitan counties (n=254) of the US. Rocky Mountain West during a recent time period. The results show that an economic base version of the adjustment model provides insights to regional change that are not available from the traditional version of the model.
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  • 24
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    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Book review in this article:East Asian Development: Will the East Asian Growth Miracle Survive? Edited by F. Gerald Adams and Shinichi Ichimura.Regional Change in Industrializing Asia. Edited by Leo van Grunsven.Black Powe/White Power in Public Education, by Ralph Edwards and Charles V. Willie.
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  • 25
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    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Fiscal devolution fiom federal to state jurisdictions gives states more authority but also more responsibility for redistributing and stabilizing income. Both the revenue and expenditure sides of a state's budget are affected. This paper describes a social accounting matrix approach to documenting multi-regional, multi-jurisdiction fiscal accounts, called a fiscal SAM. Two of the many potential uses of a fiscal SAM are demonstrated. First, a fiscal SAM of rural, urban, and metro areas of Iowa is used directly to describe and compare the benchmark net fiscal situations of interdependent regions. Second, it is used to analyze the impacts of an economic downturn under a block-grant welfare system.Substate regions are relatively more specialized than state or national economies. Thus, for example, shocks to agriculture will directly affect agriculture-dependent counties more than other types of counties. Substate regions are also more interdependent than states, as well as more open than the nation as a whole. This means that indirect and spatial spillover effects of fiscal and other exogenous changes can be surprisingly large between counties. Here, analysis of fhe multipliers highlights the relative intensities of within and across-region effects of changes in the form of intergovernmental transfers. The multiplier simulation estimates the relative impacts and spillover effects of economic shocks under the new regime.
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  • 26
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    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Many counties in the mountainous areas of the western U.S. are experiencing rapid growth in population and income, even though extractive industries that served historically as their primary economic base are in decline. The purpose of this paper is to establish statistically the spatial determinants of population, employment, and income densities in 86 rural mountain counties and any changes in those determinants between 1985 and 1994. The results of this analysis indicate that densities are oriented to regional metropolitan centers and critical amenities such as ski areas, national parks, and universities or colleges. Negatively sloped density gradients with respect to distance from regional metropolitan centers suggest that the densities of settlement patterns beyond metropolitan boundaries are analogous to those within metropolitan areas relative to urban centers. In short, a tension apparently exists in locational choice; residents of the Mountain West desire to live near the beauties and amenities of the mountain landscape but do not want to entirely sever their urban ties. Because amenities are the primary attraction of mountain counties rather than employment in locationally dependent industries, at least some migrants must have relatively footloose forms of income.
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  • 27
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    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Book review in this article:The California Cauldron: Immigration and the Changing Fortunes of Local. Communities. By William A.V. Clark.Structural Economics, by Faye Dunchin.
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  • 28
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    Growth and change 30 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1468-2257
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: This paper examines the competitive characteristics of small and medium-sized manufacturing firms (SMFs) in a Canada-U.S. crossborder region (the Niagara Frontier). Particular attention is given to the innovation and business performance of comparably-sized firms on both sides of the border. The results of two firm-level surveys are presented. A comparative analysis of the two groups suggests that Canadian Sh4Fs exhibit significantly stronger export and innovation performance than their US. counterparts. The results also suggest that U.S. firms face tougher competitive difficulties arising fiom specific national and regional circumstances, including shortages of skilled labor, higher corporate tax rates, rising import competition, and a more complex regulatory environment. The implications of the empirical results are discussed in the context of policy options for regional economic development in crossborder zones such as the Niagara Frontier
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    ISSN: 1468-2257
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    ISSN: 1468-2257
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    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Books reviewed: The Asian Financial Crisis: Causes, Cures, and Systemic Implications, by Morris Goldstein. Sustaining the Asia Pacific Miracle: Environmental Protection And Economic Integration, by Andre Dua and Daniel C. Esty. Institutions and Regional Labour Markets in Europe, by Lambert van der Laan and Santos M. Ruesga. Global Shift. Transforming the World Economy, 3rd Ed., by Peter Dicken. Environment, Health and Population Displacement, by Andrew E. Collins.
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    Journal of regional science 39 (1999), S. 0 
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    Notes: Modeling demand in a spatial context requires careful handling of regional interactions. In situations where there are constraints in some markets that lead to spillovers to others it is useful to build this explicitly into the model. In this paper I present a theoretical model that is related to the disequilibrium and the spatial econometric literature. Under certain conditions the model may be estimable and an appropriate estimation technique that uses the EM algorithm, is put forward. A data set from the U.K. market for secondary school places provides a test for the procedure.
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    Notes: In this paper we develop a framework to describe the individual choice of residential location using the microeconomics of discrete choices. The individual is seen as deciding frequency, duration, and location of a set of activities for each potential residential zone, knowing the distribution of goods and activities in space as well as transport costs and travel times. The conditional indirect utility function and its associated willingness to pay function for each zone are obtained, where the roles of accessibility, income, and neighborhood attributes emerge clearly. Zonal utility in discrete location choice models can be specified and interpreted using these functions.
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    Notes: In this paper we present a model for commuting in a network of towns. A basic assumption is that all individuals have a given residential location and that every node in the network has a fixed number of jobs. We then propose a general model for the commuting of labor between the nodes in the network.
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    Notes: In this paper I examine the profit-maximizing locations of entrants. Suppose that firms practice spatial price discrimination and consumer locations are discrete, such as five equally spaced towns on a roadway. With completely inelastic consumer demand an entrant between two existing firms is often indifferent between the symmetric (central) location and a continuum of asymmetric (noncentral) locations. However, downward-sloping consumer demand often causes the entrant to strictly prefer either of two asymmetriclocations to any other location. These results are very different from those found in mill-pricing (free-on-board or f.o.b.-pricing) models.
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    Notes: In this paper we extend the Harris-Todaro model of rural-to-urban migration to include urban agglomeration effects, some urban real wage flexibility, and a government budget constraint. Without employment subsidies laissez-faire migration is excessive unless real wage flexibility and agglomeration effects are high. Laissez-faire migration is too low compared with the first-best outcome supported by a subsidy, if its financing involves no costs. Simulations suggest that such a program would imply a substantial increase in taxation. If, as seems likely, an increase of this magnitude involves economic costs then the optimal outcome falls well short of first-best.
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    Journal of regional science 39 (1999), S. 0 
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    Notes: In this paper I analyze the spatial-economic determinants of export competition. I develop a competing central place spatial interaction model to analyze the spatial availability of information, market power, distance, demand threshold, and interregional market variables. Model estimates are based on national data from The Dartmouth Atlas of Health Care, and I examine Medicare health exports from the Seattle hospital market to markets throughout the Pacific Northwest. Information availability and market power for the Seattle export hospitals have a significant effect on export sales of hospital Medicare services. Intra and interregional competition with other major hospital markets are significant determinants of export competition. Distance to the Seattle market has a strong, negative effect on export sales and on patient migration from other markets.
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    Journal of regional science 39 (1999), S. 0 
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    Notes: We investigate how the incorporation of producer services linkages affects the outcome of an economic geography model. We specify the production of manufactures such that a variety of producer services is needed to transform tradable unfinished goods into final consumption goods. We find that service linkages promote the concentration of economic activity in a single region, but whether full concentration is achieved depends on the costs and mode of services trade. Applying the model to a multiregion world shows that incorporating producer services may also give rise to regions that specialize in different economic activities.
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    Notes: In this paper our primary concern is with a spatial model of competing firms in a regional industry. The firms are producing for an extraregional market and are located so as to gain exclusive access to a dispersed raw-material input. After outlining the form of the industry long-run average cost curve, we specify the equilibrium outcome, both for the individual firm and the regional industry. We demonstrate that the industry long-run supply curve does not coincide with the industry long-run average cost curve. We further show that the outcome in the spatial model results from the separation of firms, each firm having its own domain, part or all of which becomes its supply area.
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    Notes: In this paper we develop a Bayesian prior motivated by cross-sectional spatial autoregressive models for use in time-series vector autoregressive forecasting involving spatial variables. We compare forecast accuracy of the proposed spatial prior to that from a vector autoregressive model relying on the Minnesota prior and find a significant improvement. In addition to a spatially motivated prior variance as in LeSage and Pan (1995) we develop a set of prior means based on spatial contiguity. A Theil-Goldberger estimator may be used for the proposed model making it easy to implement.
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    Journal of regional science 39 (1999), S. 0 
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    Notes: This paper presents an agent-based model of shifting cultivation that explains patterns of land use and forest structure beyond the extensive margin of agriculture. The anthropological literature is first examined in order to specify key aspects of farming group preferences vis-a-vis food requirements. Two existing theories of shifting cultivation are then addressed to motivate the present formulation, which integrates household production theory and the concept of optimal rotation originating in the forestry literature. It is argued that the cycling of secondary vegetation by shifting cultivators represents a form of rotation analogous to the foresters' case. The model developed explains the empirical observation that individual agents use multiple rotation ages, and it does so for the nonmarket case, which is consistent with the institutional environment of many indigenous peoples and colonists. The paper concludes with an application to the problem of rural violence in Brazil and with suggestions for extending the framework to the policy arena of global change.
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    Notes: In this paper I introduce the concepts of spatial unit roots and spatial cointegration, and via Monte-Carlo simulation I illustrate their implications for spatial regression. It is shown that spatial unit roots lead to spurious (spatial) regression, as in the well-known case involving time-series. Spatial cointegration is similar to its time-series counterpart, although I demonstrate that OLS estimation of spatial error-correction models is not consistent.
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    Notes: Many existing models concerning locations and market areas of competitive facilities assume that customers patronize a facility based on distance to that facility, or perhaps on a function of distances between the customer and the different facilities available. Customers are generally assumed to be located at certain discrete demand points in a two-dimensional space, or continuously distributed over a one-dimensional line segment. In this paper these assumptions are relaxed by employment of a continuum optimization model to characterize the equilibrium choice behavior of customers for a given set of competitive facilities over a heterogeneous two-dimensional space. Customers are assumed to be scattered continuously over the space and each customer is assumed to choose a facility based on both congested travel time to the facility and on the attributes of the facility. The model is formulated as a calculus of variations problem and its optimality conditions are shown to be equivalent to the spatial customer-choice equilibrium conditions. An efficient numerical method using finite element technique is proposed and illustrated with a numerical example.
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    Singapore journal of tropical geography 20 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1467-9493
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    Topics: Geography
    Notes: Pulau (P.) Semakau comprises a narrow, low-lying island, surrounded by a wide fringing coral reef of late-Holocene age. The modern reef flat comprises a gently sloping surface related to modern mean low water neap tide level. Six sediment facies are recognised below the line of high water of which three, adjacent to the island, are composed of terrigenous minerals and rock fragments and three are autochthonous carbonates sediments developed since local sea-level still stand (c. 6,500 years BP). The fringing reefs of P. Semakau and Singapore differ from many of the reef forms recorded from Peninsular Malaysia waters and the Gulf of Thailand. The Singapore reefs have wide, well-developed intertidal reef flats, lack lagoons and reef crests, and have a very steep reef slope. In contrast to most other fringing reefs of the region, the Singapore reefs have developed in a low wave energy, meso-tidal environment lacking strong environmental gradients.
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    Singapore journal of tropical geography 20 (1999), S. 0 
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    Notes: This article explores parallels between the economic development strategies of Ireland and Singapore through a study of the software sector. My central argument is that Singapore’s embryonic software industry can learn important lessons from Ireland, which now exports over US$6 billion worth of products annually. Ireland's success has been achieved by attracting two forms of export-oriented foreign direct investment that are increasingly important due to globalisation trends in the software industry: software development centres, and software product manufacturing and localisation (translation and local adaptation) plants. Ireland has benefited from its position on the periphery of Western Europe, one of the largest software markets in the world, to emerge as a key production location for US transnational corporations. Singapore is perhaps now poised, with a similar range of financial, labour market and infrastructural attributes as Ireland, to benefit from rapid growth in the Asia-Pacific software market. Three corporate case studies from Singapore are used to illustrate this argument.
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    Topics: Geography
    Notes: This paper examines features of drainage and stream channel form and process on the mountainous volcanic island of Kadavu in the humid tropical South Pacific, and interprets the findings in relation to island environmental characteristics such as geology, regolith soils, topography, vegetation and climate. At island and sub-island scales, drainage patterns are linked to the geographical arrangement and topography of the late Cenozoic volcanoes. Stream channel and bedload characteristics demonstrate the importance of both deep saprolite weathering profiles for supplying sediment into the fluvial system, and the high energy nature of the fluvial transport regimes. Landscape chemical denudation is estimated at 50-85 mm per 1,000 years from baseflow solute concentrations converted from water conductivity readings.Relative tectonic and sea-level stability during the late Holocene and the largely undisturbed rainforest and savanna vegetation on the island suggest that climatic factors control rates of fluvial processes on Kadavu. Streamflow records show particularly that tropical storms can have a big impact. The effects of possible increasing numbers of cyclones in the South Pacific and human vegetation disturbance on Kadavu are considered.
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    Notes: In this paper I investigate the United States urban system of technical advance by analysis of metropolitan patent data. Residents of metropolitan areas obtain most of the patents awarded to Americans and the largest areas predominate, signifying that urbanization externalities facilitate invention. The advantages of large areas arise from lopsided concentrations of technologically intensive manufacturing and an uneven distribution of well-educated people. Location with respect to the traditional manufacturing belt also plays a role. Metropolitan residents in the manufacturing belt remain the most industrious inventors. The contribution of leading educational and research institutions to technical advance is manifest in small urban centers and outside the traditional manufacturing belt.
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    Notes: The life-course approach to residential mobility and migration recognizes a central role for a variety of demographic and economic triggers in the mobility process. Having a child, getting married, separated, or divorced, have all been identified as triggers that generate residential relocations. It is obvious that a job change can also be viewed as a stimulus for residential relocation, although until now the interconnection has been evaluated mainly for long-distance migratory moves rather than for its effects on residential mobility. In this analysis we use the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to test the association between employment changes and residential relocation. We examine both the occurrence and the timing of residential moves triggered by employment transitions. We show that job changes increase the likelihood of residential relocation in the aggregate and for singles when we hold other & “triggers” constant. The results of the analysis of the timing of job changes and residential relocations indicate that temporal differences exist between households types. Overall, the results establish that job change is an important triggering process in residential relocation and emphasizes the interconnected nature of life-course events.
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    Notes: A data-determined method is proposed to test for the law of one price as a long-run equilibrium condition and to identify which markets in a network of spatially dispersed commodity markets quote the reference price. The method consists of supplementing Johansen's FIML cointegration procedure with a permanent-transitory decomposition and rules of inference in linear time-series models with unit roots. As an example, we apply our method to prices of six corn markets in Benin. We find that the law of one price holds in the long-run. It appears that two rural markets quote the reference price: their prices adjust fastest towards the permanent change induced by the common stochastic trend.
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    Notes: Books reviewed:Manfred M. Fischer and Arthur Getis (eds.), Recent Developments in Spatial Analysis: Spatial Statistics, Behavioural Modelling, and Computational IntelligenceLars Lundqvist, Lars-Göran Mattson, and Tschangho John Kim (eds.), Network Infrastructure and the Urban Environment: Advances in Spatial Systems ModellingPiet Rietveld and Frank Bruinsma, Is Transport Infrastructure Effective?Russell W. Cooper, Coordination Games: Complementarities and MacroeconomicsPhilip W. Porter and Eric S. Sheppard, A World of Difference: Society, Nature, DevelopmentMary Douglas and Steven Ney, Missing Persons: A Critique of Personhood in the Social SciencesRobert A. Dodgshon, Society in Time and Space: A Geographical Perspective on Change
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    Notes: Using a two-factor, two-good model, where only one of the goods is nontraded, I investigate the effects of immigration on the relative price of the two goods, the wage rate, and the rental price. I also demonstrate that the inflow of foreign workers gives rise to an increase in the welfare of the native inhabitants in the host country, and if the nontraded good is capital (labor) intensive, the inflow of permanent migrants is of more (less) benefit to the native inhabitants than the inflow of cross-border workers.
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    Notes: The technique of geographically weighted regression (GWR) is used to model spatial ‘drift’ in linear model coefficients. In this paper we extend the ideas of GWR in a number of ways. First, we introduce a set of analytically derived significance tests allowing a null hypothesis of no spatial parameter drift to be investigated. Second, we discuss ‘mixed’ GWR models where some parameters are fixed globally but others vary geographically. Again, models of this type may be assessed using significance tests. Finally, we consider a means of deciding the degree of parameter smoothing used in GWR based on the Mallows Cp statistic. To complete the paper, we analyze an example data set based on house prices in Kent in the U.K. using the techniques introduced.
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    Notes: In this paper we investigate empirical relationships between Unemployment Insurance (UI) and welfare policies using a unique database covering 48 states annually from 1973 through 1989. We first document substantial variation across states in UI program outcomes. Having established that UI is so variable, we explore the simultaneous interaction between UI and Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC), Medicaid, and total state and local welfare spending. Our econometric results indicate substitution between the two cash assistance programs, AFDC and UI, by state governments. On the other hand, states that operate relatively generous UI programs also tend to allocate more resources to Medicaid and other in-kind, low-income assistance programs.
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    Notes: This paper analyzes the wage effects of unemployment duration and frequency for different regional labor market situations in The Netherlands using a simultaneous equations approach. The main finding is that unemployment duration has a significant negative effect and the frequency of unemployment a significant positive effect on wages in the core regions with relatively low unemployment rates. In the periphery with relatively high unemployment rates no significant effects of unemployment duration and frequency are found. It is argued that in the core regions unemployment duration is primarily viewed as a personal indicator of low productivity whereas in the periphery it is attributed to the situation in the regional labor market.
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    Notes: Books Reviewed:Fisher, Peter S. and Peters, Alan H., Industrial Incentives: Competition among American States and CitiesFrankel, Jeffrey A., The Regionalization of the World EconomyWarner, Stephen R. and Wittner, Judith G., Gatherings in Diaspora: Religious Communities and the New Immigration
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    Notes: We offer a general-equilibrium economic approach to Zipf's Law or, more generally, the rank-size distribution—the striking empirical regularity concerning the size distribution of cities. We provide some further understanding of Zipf's Law by incorporating negative feedbacks (congestion) in a popular model of economic geography and international trade. This model allows the powers of agglomeration and spreading to be in long-run equilibrium, which enhances our understanding of the existence of a rank-size distribution of cities.
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    Notes: In this paper we construct exchange rate indexes for the nine U.S. Bureau of the Census regions. The results indicate there are nontrivial differences between them and an identically created overall U.S. exchange rate index. The national index is cointegrated with only two of these regional indexes, and in a Granger sense, it is causing one regional index. In addition, our results indicate that two of the regional exchange rate indexes are interchangeable with the national index. These results show that researchers investigating how exchange rate changes affect regional exports or regional economic growth should be cautious in making inferences based upon a national exchange rate index.
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    Notes: Claval, Paul, An Introduction to Regional GeographyStorper, Michael, The Regional World: Territorial Development in a Global EconomyBraczyk, Hans-Joachim, Cooke, Philip and Heidenreich, Martin (eds.), Regional Innovation Systems: The Role of Governance in a Globalized WorldJensen-Butler, Chris, Shachar, Arie, and van Weesep, Jan (eds.), European Cities in CompetitionWilliams, Colin C., Consumer Services and Economic DevelopmentPollard, Sidney, Marginal Europe: The Contribution of the Marginal Lands Since the Middle AgesZimmerer, Karl S., Changing Fortunes: Biodiversity and Peasant Livelihood in the Peruvian Andes
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    Journal of regional science 39 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1467-9787
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    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: In this paper we develop a model of a repeated spatial auction market. The auction model contributes to the literature on spatial competition by considering the sale of goods in a market with spatial and temporal dimensions, and in which goods are sold by an auction institution instead of a posted-price institution. In the Nash equilibrium of the spatial auction model, each bidder is found to have a dominance solvable strategy to bid below his net (of transportation costs) valuation for the first unit of the good because there is an option value to not winning, namely that the following units may be locationally preferred to the first unit. The equilibrium bidding strategies lead to the possibility of non–Pareto-efficient outcomes. The auction model is applied to data from U.S. Forest Service timber sales.
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    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: This work emphasizes the incentives for vertical integration in a spatial model. A downstream monopoly will both strategically increase its transport costs and locate inefficiently relative to its customers. This forces the upstream monopolist to lower its input price rather than permit sales to decline. The excess costs and the inefficient location lower total profit in the vertical stream generating an incentive for vertical integration.
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    Journal of regional science 39 (1999), S. 0 
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    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Books reviewed:Stan Openshaw and Christine Openshaw, Artificial Intelligence in GeographyClifford Winston and Chad Shirley Alternative Route: Toward Efficient Urban TransportationKatherine Jensen and Audie Blevins, The Last Gamble: Betting on the Future in Four Rocky Mountain Mining TownsAli Madanipour, Göran Cars, and Judith Allen (eds.), Social Exclusion in European Cities: Processes, Experiences and ResponsesPaul Lawless, Ron Martin, and Sally Hardy (eds.), Unemployment and Social Exclusion: Landscapes of Labour InequalityWilliam A. V. Clark, The California Cauldron: Immigration and the Fortunes of Local Communities
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    Journal of regional science 39 (1999), S. 0 
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    Notes: In this review we survey advances in analysis of the hub location problem and its variants. In the course of the review opportunities for enhanced analysis become apparent. We emphasize the most pressing areas for further work. We found that first, research needs to be devoted to developing more reliable heuristics for the multiple assignment model and its extensions and second, that additional research is needed to understand the conditions under which the model will tend to have integer solutions. Research in this area will contribute to the solution of a longstanding puzzle in economics about the allocation of indivisible resources.
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    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: In this paper we use time-series techniques to examine whether monetary policy had symmetric effects across U.S. states during the 1958:1–1992:4 period. Impulse response functions from estimated structural vector autoregression models reveal differences in policy responses, which in some cases are substantial. We provide evidence on the reasons for the measured cross-state differential policy responses. The size of a state's response is significantly related to industry-mix variables, providing evidence of an interest rate channel for monetary policy, although the state-level data offer no support for recently advanced credit-channel theories.
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    Journal of regional science 39 (1999), S. 0 
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    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: The persistence of HIV/AIDS has seen a revival of academic interest in the development of modeling systems to assist understanding the population dynamics of this infection. Moreover, it has become increasingly recognized that a key component of these systems for interpreting disease prevention is their reproduction rate, which provides an indication of whether an epidemic might start in a community described by a particular set of epidemiological characteristics. The properties of these rates have been explored in detail for models of a single risk behavior but not for multiregion formats that allow for the transfer of infection between geographical units. Therefore, in this paper I derive reproduction rates for a multiregion HIV/AIDS model together with their associated critical thresholds that estimate the minimum population of susceptibles necessary for an epidemic to begin. These statistics are interpreted for a simplified global setting representing regional variations in the potential onset of HIV/AIDS. In the discussion I examine the potential applicability of these results to understanding HIV/AIDS prevention.
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    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: This paper presents a partial equilibrium model of land, labor, and transportation markets in an information-oriented city with traffic congestion of commuting and agglomeration economies of interaction. We derive the equilibria by numerical computations using specific utility, production, and congestion functions. The laissez-faire equilibrium is compared with the optimum. In contrast with the results of many previous papers, at the optimum the CBD becomes compact and the city more suburbanized than the laissez-faire equilibrium. We also analyze the effects of a Pigouvian tax system and subsidies on the spatial structure in the city.
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    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: The effects of different employment-status transitions on migration choices are considered from a search-theoretic perspective. A discrete-time hazard function for migration decisions is estimated on data for young males of rural origin in France. Employment-status transitions are handled as endogenous time-varying covariates. The model is estimated by distance of move. The results show that the long-distance migration hazard is significantly related to labor market variables, and, ceteris paribus, is highest among job-gainers compared to the other transition groups. The probability of contracted (long-distance) migration is found to be higher than that of speculative migration for unemployed workers, especially those who are low-educated. Evidence consistent with cumulative inertia is found for long-distance moves. Short-distance migration hazards are found to be unrelated to labor market variables (including employment-status transitions) and to display no systematic pattern of duration dependence.
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    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Although there is evidence that regional employment growth benefits current residents, an unexplored aspect of this relationship is the industry composition of the growth. Using 1981–1991 migration data for the 48 contiguous U.S. states, this paper examines whether the industry mix of employment growth matters for migration. We find that state employment growth that results from having a larger share of nationally fast-growing industries leads to less net in-migration compared to growth that results from each industry in the state growing faster than its national average. Therefore, state employment growth that is attributable to its mix of industries yields greater benefits for current state residents.
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    Journal of regional science 39 (1999), S. 0 
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    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Many facility location decision models ignore the fact that for a facility to survive it needs a minimum demand level to cover costs. In this paper we present a decision model for a firm that wishes to enter a spatial market where there are several competitors already located. This market is such that for each outlet there is a demand threshold level that has to be achieved in order to survive. The firm wishes to know where to locate its outlets so as to maximize its market share taking into account the threshold level. It may happen that due to this new entrance, some competitors will not be able to meet the threshold and therefore will disappear. A formulation is presented together with a heuristic solution method and computational experience.
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    Journal of regional science 39 (1999), S. 0 
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    Topics: Geography , Economics
    Notes: Anti-poverty programs often target poor areas even when there is seemingly free migration. Should such programs focus instead on households with personal attributes that foster poverty, no matter where they live? Possibly not; there may be “hidden” constraints on mobility, or location may reveal otherwise hidden household attributes. Using survey data for Bangladesh we find significant and sizable geographic effects on living standards after controlling for a wide range of nongeographic characteristics of households, as would typically be observable to policy makers. The geographic structure of living standards is reasonably stable over time, consistent with observed migration patterns, and robust to testable sources of bias.
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    Polar research 18 (1999), S. 0 
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    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: The regional atmospheric climate model HIRHAM has been applied to the Arctic. Simulations for the whole year 1990 and for an ensemble of winter months (January of 1985-1995) have been performed. The comparison of the simulations with observational data analyses shows that the general spatial patterns are in good agreement with the data, in both the vertical structure and the annual cycle. For an additional validation of the model results, a multivariate classification of large-scale circulation patterns has been applied to the January ensemble model simulations.
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    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: We investigate the response of the Nordic seas-Arctic Ocean system to surface freshwater flux anomalies that we regard as typical for long-term atmospheric variability. We employ response experiments with a coupled sea ice-ocean model where we introduce a surface freshwater flux anomaly (A) over the Norwegian Sea and (B) in the Laptev Sea. Case A offers an explanation for the intermediate depth salinity changes observed in the Amundsen Basin. The signal observed there belongs to an original perturbation that, according to the model, occurred around a decade earlier. Salinity fluctuations in the Laptev Sea could play a role in changes in the near surface salinity in the Amundsen Basin.
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  • 80
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    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Observation of the retreat and disintegration of ice shelves around the Antarctic Peninsula during the last three decades and associated changes in air temperature, measured at various meteorological stations on the Antarctic Peninsula, are reviewed. The climatically induced retreat of the northern Larsen Ice Shelf on the east coast and of the Wordie, George VI, and Wilkins ice shelves on the west coast amounted to about 10 000 km2 since the mid-1960s. A summary is presented on the recession history of the Larsen Ice Shelf and on the collapse of those sections north of Robertson Island in early 1995. The area changes were derived from images of various satellites, dating back to a late 1963 image from the recently declassified US Argon space missions. This photograph reveals a previously unknown, minor advance of the northern Larsen Ice Shelf before 1975. During the period of retreat a consistent and pronounced warming trend was observed at the stations on both east and west coasts of the Antarctic Peninsula, but a major cause of the fast retreat and final collapse of the northernmost sections of the Larsen Ice Shelf were several unusually warm summers. Temperature records from the nearby station Marambio show that a positive mean summer temperature was reached for the first time in 1992-93. Recent observations indicate that the process of ice shelf disintegration is proceeding further south on both sides of the Antarctic Peninsula.
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    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: To determine the factors restricting plant reproduction in front of a glacier, the gender expression and seed production of Dryas octopetala L. (Rosaceae) were observed, as well as the grazing pattern of reindeer on flowers, near Brøggerbreen (Brøgger Glacier), which is near Ny-Ålesund (78° 55'N, 11° 56'E), Svalbard. Three hundred shoots with flowers and flower buds were randomly tagged in early July 1996. Between then and the end of flowering in late July, 100 (33%) flowers and buds were grazed by reindeer. Out of the surviving flowers, 145 (76%) shoots had hermaphrodite flowers, while 45 (24%) shoots had male flowers without a developed gynocium. Male flowers, which appeared later than hermaphrodite flowers in the population, were significantly smaller than hermaphrodite flowers in dry weight. In the hermaphrodite flowers, moreover, smaller flowers showed lower dry-weight allocation to the gynoecium as compared to larger flowers. During the observation, hermaphrodite flowers did not produce any developed seeds under a natural condition (0% seed-set). Cross-pollinated flowers showed 8% seed-set. On the other hand, flowers which were artificially warmed in small greenhouses during the flowering period showed 60% seed-set, regardless of cross-pollination or autodeposition of pollen from anthers to stigma (self-pollination). Thus, it was found that grazing, gender variation in relation to the length of the growing season and the flower size, and - in the floweriing period - low temperature rather than pollinator limitation strongly affected the seed production of D. octopetala in the population studied.
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  • 82
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    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: In the near coastal regions of Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, below-surface ice-melt in blue-ice areas has been observed. The low scattering coefficients of the large-grained blue-ice allow penetration of solar radiation, thus providing an energy source below the ice surface. The sub-surface meltwater is significant enough to show up on remote-sensing imagery in the form of ice-covered lakes. Adjacent snow-accumulation areas have much higher scattering coefficients and consequently limit solar radiation penetration in these regions. These snow and ice surfaces are generally below freezing, and little surface melting occurs. To assess the response of these melt features to changes in atmospheric forcings such as cloudiness, air temperature, and snow accumulation, a physically-based model of the coupled atmosphere, radiation, snow, and blue-ice system has been developed. The model consists of a heat transfer equation with a spectrally-dependent solar-radiation source term. The penetration of radiation into the snow and blue-ice depends on the surface albedo, and the snow and blue-ice grain size and density. Model simulations show that ice melt occurring in this area is sensitive to potential variations in atmospheric forcing. Under certain conditions more traditional surface melting occurs and, under other conditions, the existing melt processes can be shut down completely. In light of the sensitivity of this system to variations in atmospheric forcing, and the ability to view melt-related features using remote sensing, a tool exists to efficiently monitor variations in Antarctic coastal climate.
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    Polar research 18 (1999), S. 0 
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    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: The Holocene glacial and climatic development in Antarctica differed considerably from that in the Northern Hemisphere. Initial deglaciation of inner shelf and adjacent land areas in Antarctica dates back to between 10-8 Kya, when most Northern Hemisphere ice sheets had already disappeared or diminished considerably. The continued deglaciation of currently ice-free land in Antarctica occurred gradually between ca. 8-5 Kya. A large southern portion of the marine-based Ross Ice Sheet disintegrated during this late deglaciation phase. Some currently ice-free areas were deglaciated as late as 3 Kya. Between 8-5 Kya, global glacio-eustatically driven sea level rose by 10-17m, with 4-8 m of this increase occurring after 7 Kya. Since the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets had practically disappeared by 8-7 Kya, we suggest that Antarctic deglaciation caused a considerable part of the global sea level rise between 8-7 Kya, and most of it between 7-5 Kya. The global mid-Holocene sea level high stand, broadly dated to between 8-4 Kya, and the Littorina-Tapes transgressions in Scandinavia and simultaneous transgressions recorded from sites e.g. in Svalbard and Greenland, dated to 7-5 Kya, probably reflect input of meltwater from the Antarctic deglaciation.
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    Polar research 18 (1999), S. 0 
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    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: UV-B tolerance and susceptibility of high Arctic morphotypes of the Daphnia pulexl D. tenebrosa complex were assessed by in situ experiments at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard (79°N). Animals from local ponds were exposed to ambient light plus additional UV-B from lamps in a greenhouse facility. Taxonomic affinities did not appear as major determinants of UV susceptibility, but a major difference in UV-B tolerance was seen between morphotypes with pigmented carapaces and those without, the latter being far more susceptible. Assays on levels of carotene and the anti-oxidant enzymes catalase and superoxide dismutase did not reveal clear-cut differences between populations, and could not account for the higher tolerance in pigmented populations. Levels of glutathione transferase were higher in the transparent population, however. In the absence of blue light and UV, laboratory reared animals did not reconstitute their carapace melanization after moulting, indicating that short-wave light is the cue for melanin synthesis. Tests on melanized individuals and individuals of the same population reared indoors through 1-2 moults supported the major role of melanin for UV protection. Periods with high UV exposure during hatching of ephippia could induce shifts in morphotype or clonal dominance.
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    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: During the 17th and 18th centuries, tens of thousands of Greenland right whales were killed as a result of extensive European whaling in the coastal waters of the Svalbard archipelago. The author reconstructed these whaling activities, examined how the changing climate affected whaling productivity, and considered the consequences of climate and whaling on the species and on the North Atlantic ecosystem. Annual catch records made it possible to calculate the original size of the whale population; its natural migration pattern in the Greenland Sea could be reconstructed using shipping logs and itineraries. Other written sources revealed that besides human hunting activities, climate change played an important role in the elimination of the Greenland right whale from the Arctic marine ecosystem. This elimination made millions of plankton available for other marine mammals, polar cod and planktonfeeding birds. This has caused a major shift in the food web. changing the marine ecosystem in Svalbard.
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    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Responses to global change impacts require the specification of mitigation and adaptation options. Integrated regional impact studies provide some of the information needed for rational decision making. In order to carry out a comprehensive impact study, the involvement of stakeholders in the planning and execution of the study is seen as a necessary prerequisite for an acceptance of its conclusions by the broad public. One way to pursue such an involvement is through a scientist-stakeholder collaborative. Such a collaborative, for instance institutionalized through a joint scientist-stakeholder steering committee addressing issues related to mutual communication and the integration of individual study results, offers a number of additional advantages. The experience of local residents and the utilization of traditional knowledge may provide insight and expertise inaccessible to scientific investigations. Within the Barents Sea Impact Study, the involvement of stakeholders has been given significant weight early on. One of the main instruments employed in the stakeholder collaborative is the BASIS Information Office. However, given the diversity of backgrounds and interests of stakeholders from four different countries, scientist-stakeholder collaboration represents a significant challenge within BASIS. This notwithstanding, we consider the advantages gained worth the extra effort.
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  • 87
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    Notes: The nutrient status of soils surrounding ten snow petrel Pagodroma nivea nests was investigated by sampling along four transects (One up-slope and three down-slope) from each nest. The highest levels for total N and P.% C. nitrite and ammonia (but not nitrate) were associated with the nest itself. Elevated levels of all nutrients still occurred at I m from the nest but dropped to levels similar to those of non-bird influenced soils at 2 m or 5 m from the nest. Highest bacterial and algal numbers were also associated with the nest. An experiment to examine the breakdown of guano showed nitrification levels to be insignificant and nutrient release levels very slow.
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    Notes: Concetrations of 16 elements (Al, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Zn, C, N, S, P, Ca, Mg) were determined in the lichen Cladina stellaris (Opiz) Brodo collected from 26 localities on the Kola Peninsula. Concentrations were higher closer to the emission sources. In Arctic regions affected by local emissions. lichens can be recommended as sensitive indicators of atmospheric pollution.
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    Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1752-1688
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: : Existing legal regimes for the management of water resources are already stressed by changing technologies and growing populations. There is little reason for doubt that today the planet is undergoing significant and even alarming climate change. In the past such global climatic changes had dramatic effects on water resource availability with disastrous consequences for many human communities. Today's climate changes can be managed without such disastrous consequences for present day communities only if there are major reforms to existing water law regimes at the local, national, and international levels. In particular, at the local and national levels, water resources must be treated as public property rather than as common or private property. At the international level, water must be managed at the drainage basin level rather than according to national boundaries that largely ignore rational water management criteria. At all levels, care must be given to decentralizing decision making and to use economic incentives insofar as possible, without, however, mistaking economic incentives for markets. The public nature of water resources precludes true markets as a significant management tool.
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    Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35 (1999), S. 0 
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: : Understanding the effects of climate change on water resources requires coupling atmospheric and hydrologic models. With the wide array of hydrologic models, from simple empirical to complex physically based, it is not clear which is preferable to simulate hydrologic variations over long time scales. To address this issue, a black-box artificial neural network (ANN) model was compared to a distributed parameter conceptual Geographic Information System based Hydrologic Modeling System (GIS-HMS). Both models computed daily direct surface runoff in four sub-basins of the West Branch of the Susquehanna River Basin, Pennsylvania and were evaluated with five objective functions. Overall, results were comparable between models. However, the ANN was favored in the larger sub-basins, while GIS-HMS was more accurate in the smaller catchments. Both models were impaired by the poor spatial and temporal resolution of precipitation data and the simplified representation of antecedent soil-moisture conditions. In the context of climate change, where simulations are limited by computing power, results suggest that both models are appropriate. When detailed simulations are essential, GIS-HMS is a preferable model to use. On the other hand, the ANN model is more suitable when multiple scenarios require immediate analysis and the distributed qualities of runoff are not required.
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    Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35 (1999), S. 0 
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: : We review published analyses of the effects of climate change on goods and services provided by freshwater ecosystems in the United States. Climate-induced changes must be assessed in the context of massive anthropogenic changes in water quantity and quality resulting from altered patterns of land use, water withdrawal, and species invasions; these may dwarf or exacerbate climate-induced changes. Water to meet instream needs is competing with other uses of water, and that competition is likely to be increased by climate change. We review recent predictions of the impacts of climate change on aquatic ecosystems in eight regions of North America. Impacts include warmer temperatures that alter lake mixing regimes and availability of fish habitat; changed magnitude and seasonality of runoff regimes that alter nutrient loading and limit habitat availability at low flow; and loss of prairie pothole wetlands that reduces waterfowl populations. Many of the predicted changes in aquatic ecosystems are a consequence of climatic effects on terrestrial ecosystems; shifts in riparian vegetation and hydrology are particularly critical. We review models that could be used to explore potential effects of climate change on freshwater ecosystems; these include models of instream flow, bioenergetics models, nutrient spiraling models, and models relating riverine food webs to hydrologic regime. We discuss potential ecological risks, benefits, and costs of climate change and identify information needs and model improvements that are required to improve our ability to predict and identify climate change impacts and to evaluate management options.
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  • 92
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: : This research examines the sensitivity and vulnerability of community water systems (CWSs) to weather and climate in the Pennsylvania portion of the Susquehanna River Basin. Three key findings emerge from a survey of 506 CWS managers. First, CWSs are sensitive to extreme weather and climate, but that sensitivity is determined more by type of system than system size. CWSs that rely partly or wholly on surface water face more disruptions than do groundwater systems. Larger systems have more problems with flooding, and size is not a significant determinant of outages from storms or disruptions from droughts. Second, CWS managers are unsure about global warming. Few managers dismiss global warming; most think global warming could be a problem but are unwilling to consider it in their planning activities until greater scientific certainty exists. Third, the nature of the CWS, its sensitivity to weather and climate, and projected risks from weather and climate are insignificant determinants of how managers plan. Experienced, full-time managers are more likely to consider future weather and climate scenarios in their planning, while inexperienced and part-time managers are less likely to do so. Implications of these findings include support for efforts to move away from surface water, for clear communication of climate change information, and for the hiring and retention of full-time professional CWS managers.
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: : To fully take advantage of regional climate forecast information for agricultural applications, the relationship between divisional and station scale precipitation characteristics must be quantified. The spatial variability of monthly precipitation is assumed to consist of two components: a systematic and a random component. The systematic component is defined by differences in long-term mean precipitation between stations within a climate division, and the random component by differences between station and divisional standardized values. For the Central Climate Division of Oklahoma, the systematic component has a positive precipitation gradient from west to east with a slope ranging between 3 to 16 mm of precipitation per 100 km depending on the month of the year. On the other hand, the random component ranges between 27 to 48 percent of the mean temporal variation of the monthly precipitation. This significant random spatial variability leads to large localized departures from divisional values, and clearly demonstrates the critical influence of the random component in the utilization of divisional climate forecasts for local agricultural applications. The results of this study also provide an uncertainty range for local monthly precipitation projections that are derived from divisional climate information.
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  • 94
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    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1752-1688
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: : April 1 snowpack accumulations measured at 311 snow courses in the western United States (U.S.) are grouped using a correlation-based cluster analysis. A conceptual snow accumulation and melt model and monthly temperature and precipitation for each cluster are used to estimate cluster-average April 1 snowpack. The conceptual snow model is subsequently used to estimate future snowpack by using changes in monthly temperature and precipitation simulated by the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CCC) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HADLEY) general circulation models (GCMs). Results for the CCC model indicate that although winter precipitation is estimated to increase in the future, increases in temperatures will result in large decreases in April 1 snowpack for the entire western U.S. Results for the HADLEY model also indicate large decreases in April 1 snowpack for most of the western US, but the decreases are not as severe as those estimated using the CCC simulations. Although snowpack conditions are estimated to decrease for most areas of the western US, both GCMs estimate a general increase in winter precipitation toward the latter half of the next century. Thus, water quantity may be increased in the western US; however, the timing of runoff will be altered because precipitation will more frequently occur as rain rather than as snow.
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  • 95
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    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1752-1688
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: : Downscaling coarse resolution climate data to scales that are useful for impact assessment studies is receiving increased attention. Basin-scale hydrologic processes and other local climate impacts related to water resources such as reservoir management, crop and forest productivity, and ecosystem response require climate information at scales that are much finer than current and future GCM resolutions. The Regional Climate System Model (RCSM) is a dynamic downscaling system that has been used since 1994 for short-term precipitation and streamflow predictions and seasonal hindcast analysis with good skill. During the 1997–1998 winter, experimental seasonal forecasts were made in collaboration with the NOAA Climate Prediction Center and UCLA with promising results. Preliminary studies of a control and 2°CO2 perturbation for the southwestern U.S. have been performed.
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  • 96
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    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1752-1688
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: : Climate change has the potential to have dramatic effects on the agricultural sector nationally and internationally as documented in many research papers. This paper reports on research that was focused on a specific crop growing area to demonstrate how farm managers might respond to climate-induced yield changes and the implications of these responses for agricultural water use. The Hadley model was used to generate climate scenarios for important agricultural areas of Georgia in 2030 and 2090. Linked crop response models indicated generally positive yield changes, as increased temperatures were associated with increased precipitation and CO2. Using a farm management model, differences in climate-induced yield impacts among crops led to changes in crop mix and associated water use; non-irrigated cropland received greater benefit since irrigated land was already receiving adequate moisture. Model results suggest that farm managers will increase cropping intensity by decreasing fallowing and increasing double cropping; corn acreage decreased dramatically, peanuts decreased moderately and cotton and winter wheat increased. Water use on currently irrigated cropland fell. The potential for increased water use through conversion of agriculturally important, but currently non-irrigated, growing areas is substantial.
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  • 97
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    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1752-1688
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: : We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO2 doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (〉 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30°C over the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature.
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  • 98
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    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1752-1688
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Manures and fertilizers are applied to agricultural lands in excess of recommended amounts, resulting in widespread pollution of surface and ground water and contributing a substantial source of greenhouse gases associated with global warming. By developing policies that exploit the value of farm produced nutrients, input costs can be minimized. Better accounting for or crediting of farm produced nutrients is leading to economically beneficial conservation of fertilizer. In addition, hog producers who own enough land may benefit from properly managing manure nutrients. Poultry litter is valuable as fertilizer and can be marketed by independent dealers to farmers in nutrient deficit areas, with very modest assistance from the government. Dairy producers may modify their past income support programs to finance central compost facilities. Although nutrient problems were neglected in the past, recent Federal initiatives and joint initiatives with states exploit many of these and other opportunities to avoid excessive application of nutrients to the land.
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  • 99
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    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1752-1688
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: This paper details a case study of economic and natural system responses to alternative water management policies in the Cache La Poudre River basin, Colorado, 1980–1994. The case study is presented to highlight the value and application of a conceptual integration of economic, salmonid population, physical habitat, and water allocation models. Five alternative regimes, all intended to increase low winter flows, were investigated. Habitat enhancements created by alternative regimes were translated to population responses and economic benefits. Analysis concluded that instream flows cannot compete on the northern Colorado water rental market; cooperative agreements offer an economically feasible way to enhance instream flows; and establishing an instream flow program on the Cache La Poudre River mainstem is a potentially profitable opportunity. The alliance of models is a dynamic multidisciplinary tool for use in professional settings and offers valuable insight for decision-making processes involved in water management.
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  • 100
    Electronic Resource
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    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    Journal of the American Water Resources Association 35 (1999), S. 0 
    ISSN: 1752-1688
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: A user-friendly decision support system (DSS) for long-term reservoir operation has been introduced with an eye to practical use. The system can assist reservoir managers to work out applicable rules for real-time reservoir operation. The DSS model has already been applied experimentally to the main reservoirs in Taiwan with success. In this study, Tsengwen Reservoir, the largest reservoir in Taiwan, was chosen to test the applicability of the model. The simulation results show that the DSS is not only well suited to long-term reservoir operation, but also very easily applied. A handy DSS was designed for user-friendly computer interaction with Microsoft Excel in the Windows system. Users can survey on-line reservoir operation with a browser on the World Wide Web (WWW). The uniform resource locator of the DSS is . So users may easily access the DSS via the Internet.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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