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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 10 (1996), S. 1-15 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Spacings ; quantiles ; generalized Pareto distribution ; log-logistic distribution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The maximum product of spacings (MPS) method is discussed from the standpoint of information theory. MPS parameter and quantile estimates for the generalized Pareto distribution and the two parameter log-logistic distribution are compared with the maximum likelihood(ML) and probability weighted moment (PWM) estimates.
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  • 2
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 10 (1996), S. 17-37 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Diffusion ; network ; reservoir ; power law
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A diffusion approximation for a network of continuous time reservoirs with power law release rules is examined. Under a mild assumption on the inflow processes, we show that for physically reasonable values of the power law constants, the system of processes converges to a multi-dimensional Gaussian diffusion process. We also illustrate how the limiting Gaussian process may be used to compute approximations to the original system of reservoirs. In addition, we study the quality of our approximations by comparing them to results obtained by simulations of the original watershed model. The simulations offer support for the use of the approximation developed here.
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  • 3
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 10 (1996), S. 39-63 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Saturated flow ; rainfall ; groundwater monitoring
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A numerical experiment of flow in variably saturated porous media was performed in order to evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution of the groundwater recharge at the phreatic surface for a shallow aquifer as a function of the input rainfall process and soil heterogeneity. The study focused on the groundwater recharge which resulted from the percolation of the excess rainfall for a 90-days period of an actual precipitation record. Groundwater recharge was defined as the water flux across the moving phreatic surface. The observed spatial non-uniformity of the groundwater recharge was caused by soil heterogeneity and is particularly pronounced during the stage of recharge peak (substantial percolation stage). During that stage the recharge is associated with preferential flow paths defined as soil zones of locally higher hydraulic conductivity. For the periods of low percolation intensity the groundwater recharge was exhibiting more uniform spatial characteristics. The temporal distribution of the recharge was found to be a function of the frequency and intensity of the rainfall events. Application of sampling design demonstrates the joint influence of the spatial and temporal recharge variability on the cost-effective monitoring of groundwater potentiometric surfaces.
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  • 4
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 10 (1996), S. 65-85 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Streamflow ; drought ; tree-ring data ; renewal model ; geometric variables
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract It is shown that runs of low-flow annual streamflow in a coastal semiarid basin of Central California can be adequately modelled by renewal theory. For example, runs of below-median annual streamflows are shown to follow a geometric distribution. The elapsed time between runs of below-median streamflow are geometrically distributed also. The sum of these two independently distributed geometric time variables defines the renewal time elapsing between the initiation of a low-flow run and the next one. The probability distribution of the renewal time is then derived from first principles, ultimately leading to the distribution of the number of low-flow runs in a specified time period, the expected number of low-flow runs, the risk of drought, and other important probabilistic indicators of low-flow. The authors argue that if one identifies drought threat with the occurrence of multiyear low-flow runs, as it is done by water supply managers in the study area, then our renewal model provides a number of interesting results concerning drought threat in areas historically subject to inclement, dry, climate. A 430-year long annual streamflow time series reconstructed by tree-ring analysis serves as the basis for testing our renewal model of low-flow sequences.
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  • 5
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 10 (1996), S. 87-106 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Climate change ; daily precipitation modelling ; generalized linear models ; iteratively reweighted least squares ; spline functions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The precipitation amounts on wet days at De Bilt (the Netherlands) are linked to temperature and surface air pressure through advanced regression techniques. Temperature is chosen as a covariate to use the model for generating synthetic time series of daily precipitation in a CO2 induced warmer climate. The precipitation-temperature dependence can partly be ascribed to the phenomenon that warmer air can contain more moisture. Spline functions are introduced to reproduce the non-monotonous change of the mean daily precipitation amount with temperature. Because the model is non-linear and the variance of the errors depends on the expected response, an iteratively reweighted least-squares technique is needed to estimate the regression coefficients. A representative rainfall sequence for the situation of a systematic temperature rise is obtained by multiplying the precipitation amounts in the observed record with a temperature dependent factor based on a fitted regression model. For a temperature change of 3°C (reasonable guess for a doubled CO2 climate according to the present-day general circulation models) this results in an increase in the annual average amount of 9% (20% in winter and 4% in summer). An extended model with both temperature and surface air pressure is presented which makes it possible to study the additional effects of a potential systematic change in surface air pressure on precipitation.
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  • 6
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 10 (1996), S. 107-126 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Gaussian process ; spatial correlation ; anisotropy ; Fourier transform ; Gauss-Newton ; ECM ; measurement error ; signal extraction ; irregular data
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This paper is concerned with developing computational methods and approximations for maximum likelihood estimation and minimum mean square error smoothing of irregularly observed two-dimensional stationary spatial processes. The approximations are based on various Fourier expansions of the covariance function of the spatial process, expressed in terms of the inverse discrete Fourier transform of the spectral density function of the underlying spatial process. We assume that the underlying spatial process is governed by elliptic stochastic partial differential equations (SPDE's) driven by a Gaussian white noise process. SPDE's have often been used to model the underlying physical phenomenon and the elliptic SPDE's are generally associated with steady-state problems. A central problem in estimation of underlying model parameters is to identify the covariance function of the process. The cumbersome exact analytical calculation of the covariance function by inverting the spectral density function of the process, has commonly been used in the literature. The present work develops various Fourier approximations for the covariance function of the underlying process which are in easily computable form and allow easy application of Newton-type algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters. This work also develops an iterative search algorithm which combines the Gauss-Newton algorithm and a type of generalized expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, namely expectation-conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm, for maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters. We analyze the accuracy of the covariance function approximations for the spatial autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) models analyzed in Vecchia (1988) and illustrate the performance of our iterative search algorithm in obtaining the maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters on simulated and actual data.
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  • 7
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 10 (1996), S. 127-150 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Rainfall estimation ; indicator cokriging ; rain gage measurements
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Indicator cokriging (Journel 1983) is examined as a tool for real-time estimation of rainfall from rain gage measurements. The approach proposed in this work obviates real-time estimation of real-time statistics of rainfall by using ensemble or climatological statistics exclusively, and reduces computational requirements attendant to indicator cokriging by employing only a few auxiliary cutoffs in estimation of conditional probabilities. Due to unavailability of suitable rain gage measurements, hourly radar rain fall data were used for both indicator covariance estimation and a comparative evaluation. Preliminary results suggest that the indicator cokriging approach is clearly superior to its ordinary kriging counterpart, whereas the indicator kriging approach is not. The improvement is most significant in estimation of light rainfall, but drops off significantly for heavy rainfall. The lack of predictability in spatial estimation of heavy rainfall is borne out in the integral scale of indicator correlation: peaking to its maximum for cutoffs near the median, indicator correlation scale becomes increasingly smaller for larger cutoffs of rainfall depth. A derived-distribution analysis, based on the assumption that radar rainfall is a linear sum of ground-truth and a random error, suggests that, at low cutoffs, indicator correlation scale of ground-truth can significantly differ from that of radar rainfall, and points toward inclusion of rainfall intermittency, for example, within the framework proposed in this work.
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  • 8
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 10 (1996), S. 151-161 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
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  • 9
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 10 (1996), S. 163-166 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
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  • 10
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 10 (1996), S. 187-207 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: log-Gumbel distribution ; flood frequency analysis ; quantile estimation ; confidence intervals
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The log-Gumbel distribution is one of the extreme value distributions which has been widely used in flood frequency analysis. This distribution has been examined in this paper regarding quantile estimation and confidence intervals of quantiles. Specific estimation algorithms based on the methods of moments (MOM), probability weighted moments (PWM) and maximum likelihood (ML) are presented. The applicability of the estimation procedures and comparison among the methods have been illustrated based on an application example considering the flood data of the St. Mary's River.
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  • 11
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 10 (1996), S. 167-186 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Reservoir stochastic theory ; reliability ; mean ; variance ; indicator function ; storage bounds ; nonlinear programming ; simulation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A new formulation is presented for the analysis of reservoir systems synthesizing concepts from the traditional stochastic theory of reservoir storage, moments analysis and reliability programming. The analysis is based on the development of the first and second moments for the stochastic storage state variable. These expressions include terms for the failure probabilities (probabilities of spill or deficit) and consider the storage bounds explicitly. Using this analysis, expected values of the storage state, variances of storage, optimal release policies and failure probabilities — useful information in the context of reservoir operations and design, can be obtained from a nonlinear programming solution. The solutions developed from studies of single reservoir operations on both an annual and monthly basis, compare favorably with those obtained from simulation. The presentation herein is directed to both traditional reservoir storage theorists who are interested in the design of a reservoir and modern reservoir analysts who are interested in the long term operation of reservoirs.
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  • 12
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 10 (1996), S. 209-229 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Infiltration-advance equation ; water spreading ; cellular automata ; irrigation ; surface hydrology ; hydrodynamics ; stochastic processes
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A technique has been developed for predicting the irregular advance pattern often observed as water spreads on the surface of the ground. The technique is a combination of stochastic sketching, potential theory, probability theory, and a mass balance equation in the form of an advance equation. The technique can be used on flat as well as sloping terrain and addresses any form of obstructions or constraints to the flow of the water. The stochastic sketching portion of the technique uses cellular automata with transition probability movement rules to sketch the dynamics of small volume water elements in the defined environment. Randomly selected small volume flow path segments are computed and plotted. The envelope of these segments defines the wetted area and the advance front. Several examples are presented showing the patterns produced for various situations.
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  • 13
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 10 (1996), S. 231-251 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Stochastic ; multiphase ; three phase ; heterogeneity
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The first paper (Chang et al., 1995b) of this two-part series described the stochastic analysis using spectral/perturbation approach to analyze steady state two-phase (water and oil) flow in a, liquid-unsaturated, three fluid-phase porous medium. In this paper, the results between the numerical simulations and closed-form expressions obtained using the perturbation approach are compared. We present the solution to the one-dimensional, steady-state oil and water flow equations. The stochastic input processes are the spatially correlated logk where k is the intrinsic permeability and the soil retention parameter, α. These solutions are subsequently used in the numerical simulations to estimate the statistical properties of the key output processes. The comparison between the results of the perturbation analysis and numerical simulations showed a good agreement between the two methods over a wide range of logk variability with three different combinations of input stochastic processes of logk and soil parameter α. The results clearly demonstrated the importance of considering the spatial variability of key subsurface properties under a variety of physical scenarios. The variability of both capillary pressure and saturation is affected by the type of input stochastic process used to represent the spatial variability. The results also demonstrated the applicability of perturbation theory in predicting the system variability and defining effective fluid properties through the ergodic assumption.
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  • 14
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 10 (1996), S. 295-317 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Bayesion methods ; time series ; hydrology
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A review of literature reveals the inadequacy of Intervention analysis and spectrum based methods to adequately quantify changes in hydrologic times series. A Bayesian method is used to investigate the statistical significance of observed changes in hydrologic times series and the results are reported herein. The Bayesian method is superior to the previous methods.
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  • 15
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 10 (1996), S. 253-278 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Random fields ; stochastic processes ; fractals
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes a new method for generating spatially-correlated random fields. Such fields are often encountered in hydrology and hydrogeology and in the earth sciences. The method is based on two observations: (i) spatially distributed attributes usually display a stationary correlation structure, and (ii) the screening effect of measurements leads to the sufficiency of a small search neighborhood when it comes to projecting measurements and data in space. The algorithm which was developed based on these principles is called HYDRO_GEN, and its features and properties are discussed in depth. HYDRO_GEN is found to be accurate and extremely fast. It is also versatile: it can simulate fields of different nature, starting from weakly stationary fields with a prescribed covariance and ending with fractal fields. The simulated fields can display statistical isotropy or anisotropy.
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  • 16
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 10 (1996), S. 279-294 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Linear estimation ; interpolation ; kriging ; splines ; conditional
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This work presents analytical expressions for the best estimate, conditional covariance function, and conditional realizations of a function from sparse observations. In contrast to the prevalent approach in kriging where the best estimates at every point are determined from the solution of a system of linear equations, the best-estimate function can be represented analytically in terms of basis functions, whose number depends on the observations. This approach is computationally superior when graphing a function estimate and is also valuable in understanding what the solution should look like. For example, one can immediately see that all “singularities” in the best-estimate function are at observation points.
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  • 17
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 10 (1996), S. 319-329 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Particle tracking ; numerical methods ; random walks ; advection-dispersion equation ; stochastic processes
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A formal statistical discussion of the origins of the random walk and its relation to the classic advection-dispersion equation is given. At issue is the common use of Gaussian distributed steps in producing the desired dispersive effects. Shown are alternative solutions to the basic Langevin equation describing mass displacements based on non-Gaussian, white increments. In particular, the results reveal that uniform or symmetric-triangular steps can be employed without loss of generality in accuracy of the solution (over all Peclet numbers) and may yield significant savings in the computational generation of the random deviates required in the Monte Carlo procedures of the random walk method.
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  • 18
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 10 (1996), S. 330-330 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
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  • 19
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 17-31 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Bivariate density ; meta-Gaussian density ; normal quantile transform ; likelihood ratio dependence ; correlation coefficient
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Convenient bivariate densities found in the literature are often unsuitable for modeling hydrologic variates. They either constrain the range of association between variates, or fix the form of the marginal distributions. The bivariate meta-Gaussian density is constructed by embedding the normal quantile transform of each variate into the Gaussian law. The density can represent a full range of association between variates and admits arbitrarily specified marginal distributions. Modeling and estimation can be decomposed into i) independent analyses of the marginal distributions, and ii) investigation of the dependence structure. Both statistical and judgmental estimation procedures are possible. Some comparisons to recent applications of bivariate densities in the hydrologic literature motivate and illustrate the model.
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  • 20
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 33-50 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Unit hydrograph ; uncertainty analysis ; linearly constrained Monte-Carlo simulation ; reliability analysis
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Unit hydrographs (UHs), along with design rainfalls, are frequently used to determine the discharge hydrograph for design and evaluation of hydraulic structures. Due to the presence of various uncertainties in its derivation, the resulting UH is inevitably subject to uncertainty. Consequently, the performance of hydraulic structures under the design storm condition is uncertain. This paper integrates the linearly constrained Monte-Carlo simulation with the UH theory and routing techniques to evaluate the reliability of hydraulic structures. The linear constraint is considered because the water volume of each generated design direct runoff hydrograph should be equal to that of the design effective rainfall hyetograph or the water volume of each generated UH must be equal to one inch (or cm) over the watershed. For illustration, the proposed methodology is applied to evaluate the overtopping risk of a hypothetical flood detention reservoir downstream of Tong-Tou watershed in Taiwan.
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  • 21
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 1-16 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Nash cascade reservoir model ; rainfall-runoff ; EM algorithm ; filtering ; maximum likelihood estimation ; martingale estimating function
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Abstract: Linear continuous time stochastic Nash cascade conceptual models for runoff are developed. The runoff is modeled as a simple system of linear stochastic differential equations driven by white Gaussian and marked point process noises. In the case of d reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a d dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the dth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points. The dth coordinate process is not Markovian. Thus runoff is a partially observed Markov process if it is modeled using the stochastic Nash cascade model. We consider how to estimate the parameters in such models. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the complete process parameters can be carried out directly or through some form of the EM (estimation and maximization) algorithm or variation thereof, applied to the observed process data. In this research we consider a direct approximate likelihood approach and a filtering approach to an algorithm of EM type, as developed in Thompson and Kaseke (1994). These two methods are applied to some real life runoff data from a catchment in Wales, England. We also consider a special case of the martingale estimating function approach on the runoff model in the presence of rainfall. Finally, some simulations of the runoff process are given based on the estimated parameters.
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  • 22
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 173-192 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Uncertainty analysis ; unit hydrograph ; regression analysis ; probabilistic point estimation methods
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Hydrologic model parameters obtained from regional regression equations are subject to uncertainty. Consequently, hydrologic model outputs based on the stochastic parameters are random. This paper presents a systematic analysis of uncertainty associated with the two parameters, N and K, in Nash's IUH model from different regional regression equations. The uncertainty features associated with N and K are further incorporated to assess the uncertainty of the resulting IUH. Numerical results indicate that uncertainty of N and K from the regional regression equations are too significant to be ignored.
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  • 23
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 145-171 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Hydrologic regionalization ; unit hydrograph ; regression analysis ; multivariate regression ; seemingly unrelated regression ; validation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Hydrologic regionalization is a useful tool that allows for the transfer of hydrological information from gaged sites to ungaged sites. This study developed regional regression equations that relate the two parameters in Nash's IUH model to the basin characteristics for 42 major watersheds in Taiwan. In the process of developing the regional equations, different regression procedures including the conventional univariate regression, multivariate regression, and seemingly unrelated regression were used. Multivariate regression and seeming unrelated regression were applied because there exists a rather strong correlation between the Nash's IUH parameters. Furthermore, a validation study was conducted to examine the predictability of regional equations derived by different regression procedures. The study indicates that hydrologic regionalization involving several dependent variables should consider their correlations in the process of establishing the regional equations. The consideration of such correlation will enhance the predictability of resulting regional equations as compared with the ones from the conventional univariate regression procedure.
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  • 24
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 193-210 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Turbulence ; sediment ; fluvial ; river ; bursting process ; statistics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Entrainment of sediment particles from channel beds into the channel flow is influenced by the characteristics of the flow turbulence which produces stochastic shear stress fluctuations at the bed. Recent studies of the structure of turbulent flow has recognized the importance of bursting processes as important mechanisms for the transfer of momentum into the laminar boundary layer. Of these processes, the sweep event has been recognized as the most important bursting event for entrainment of sediment particles as it imposes forces in the direction of the flow resulting in movement of particles by rolling, sliding and occasionally saltating. Similarly, the ejection event has been recognized as important for sediment transport since these events maintain the sediment particles in suspension. In this study, the characteristics of bursting processes and, in particular, the sweep event were investigated in a flume with a rough bed. The instantaneous velocity fluctuations of the flow were measured in two-dimensions using a small electromagnetic velocity meter and the turbulent shear stresses were determined from these velocity fluctuations. It was found that the shear stress applied to the sediment particles on the bed resulting from sweep events depends on the magnitude of the turbulent shear stress and its probability distribution. A statistical analysis of the experimental data was undertaken and it was found necessary to apply a Box-Cox transformation to transform the data into a normally distributed sample. This enabled determination of the mean shear stress, angle of action and standard error of estimate for sweep and ejection events. These instantaneous shear stresses were found to be greater than the mean flow shear stress and for the sweep event to be approximately 40 percent greater near the channel bed. Results from this analysis suggest that the critical shear stress determined from Shield's diagram is not sufficient to predict the initiation of motion due to its use of the temporal mean shear stress. It is suggested that initiation of particle motion, but not continuous motion, can occur earlier than suggested by Shield's diagram due to the higher shear stresses imposed on the particles by the stochastic shear stresses resulting from turbulence within the flow.
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  • 25
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 211-227 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The principle of maximum entropy (POME) was employed to derive a new method of parameter estimation for the 2-parameter generalized Pareto (GP2) distribution. Monte Carlo simulated data were used to evaluate this method and compare it with the methods of moments (MOM), probability weighted moments (PWM), and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The parameter estimates yielded by POME were comparable or better within certain ranges of sample size and coefficient of variation.
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  • 26
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 523-547 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Kernel density estimators are useful building blocks for empirical statistical modeling of precipitation and other hydroclimatic variables. Data driven estimates of the marginal probability density function of these variables (which may have discrete or continuous arguments) provide a useful basis for Monte Carlo resampling and are also useful for posing and testing hypotheses (e.g bimodality) as to the frequency distributions of the variable. In this paper, some issues related to the selection and design of univariate kernel density estimators are reviewed. Some strategies for bandwidth and kernel selection are discussed in an applied context and recommendations for parameter selection are offered. This paper complements the nonparametric wet/dry spell resampling methodology presented in Lall et al. (1996).
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  • 27
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 11 (1997), S. 459-482 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Karhunen-Loéve expansion ; Empirical Orthogonal Functions ; stochastic simulation ; gaussian fields ; analytical covariance functions ; eigenfunctions ; kriging
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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    Notes: Abstract Simulation of multigaussian stochastic fields can be made after a Karhunen-Loéve expansion of a given covariance function. This method is also called simulation by Empirical Orthogonal Functions. The simulations are made by drawing stochastic coefficients from a random generator. These numbers are multiplied with eigenfunctions and eigenvalues derived from the predefined covariance model. The number of eigenfunctions necessary to reproduce the stochastic process within a predefined variance error, turns out to be a cardinal question. Some ordinary analytical covariance functions are used to evaluate how quickly the series of eigenfunctions can be truncated. This analysis demonstrates extremely quick convergence to 99.5% of total variance for the 2nd order exponential (‘gaussian’) covariance function, while the opposite is true for the 1st order exponential covariance function. Due to these convergence characteristics, the Karhunen-Loéve method is most suitable for simulating smooth fields with ‘gaussian’ shaped covariance functions. Practical applications of Karhunen-Loéve simulations can be improved by spatial interpolation of the eigenfunctions. In this paper, we suggest interpolation by kriging and limits for reproduction of the predefined covariance functions are evaluated.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 1-14 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Exceedance probability ; trend ; stochastic variables ; non-stationarity
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    Notes: Abstract Studying the hypothetical case of a trend superimposed on a random stationary variable, we highlight the strong influence of possible non-stationarities on exceedance probability. After a general outline, the subject is analytically developed using the Gumbel distribution, emphasizing the quick increase of the exceedance probability over time in the presence of weak rising trends, and its sensitive underestimation where the non-stationarity goes unnoticed or is considered negligible. Finally the work is applied to hydrological series of rainfall and river flow.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 53-64 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Risk ; clustering ; point process ; Poisson ; flood.
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract: Since the introduction into flood risk analysis, the partial duration series method has gained increasing acceptance as an appealing alternative to the annual maximum series method. However, when the base flow is low, there is clustering in the flood peak or flow volume point process. In this case, the general stochastic point process model is not suitable to risk analysis. Therefore, two types of models for flood risk analysis are derived on the basis of clustering stochastic point process theory in this paper. The most remarkable characteristic of these models is that the flood risk is considered directly within the time domain. The acceptability of different models are also discussed with the combination of the flood peak counted process in twenty years at Yichang station on the Yangtze river. The result shows that the two kinds of models are suitable ones for flood risk analysis, which are more flexible compared with the traditional flood risk models derived on the basis of annual maximum series method or the general stochastic point process theory.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 33-52 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Keywords: Streamflow ; simulation ; nonparametric
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    Notes: Abstract A new approach for streamflow simulation using nonparametric methods was described in a recent publication (Sharma et al. 1997). Use of nonparametric methods has the advantage that they avoid the issue of selecting a probability distribution and can represent nonlinear features, such as asymmetry and bimodality that hitherto were difficult to represent, in the probability structure of hydrologic variables such as streamflow and precipitation. The nonparametric method used was kernel density estimation, which requires the selection of bandwidth (smoothing) parameters. This study documents some of the tests that were conduced to evaluate the performance of bandwidth estimation methods for kernel density estimation. Issues related to selection of optimal smoothing parameters for kernel density estimation with small samples (200 or fewer data points) are examined. Both reference to a Gaussian density and data based specifications are applied to estimate bandwidths for samples from bivariate normal mixture densities. The three data based methods studied are Maximum Likelihood Cross Validation (MLCV), Least Square Cross Validation (LSCV) and Biased Cross Validation (BCV2). Modifications for estimating optimal local bandwidths using MLCV and LSCV are also examined. We found that the use of local bandwidths does not necessarily improve the density estimate with small samples. Of the global bandwidth estimators compared, we found that MLCV and LSCV are better because they show lower variability and higher accuracy while Biased Cross Validation suffers from multiple optimal bandwidths for samples from strongly bimodal densities. These results, of particular interest in stochastic hydrology where small samples are common, may have importance in other applications of nonparametric density estimation methods with similar sample sizes and distribution shapes.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 15-32 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Kalman filtering ; groundwater modelling ; inverse methods ; uncertainty analysis ; state prediction ; parameter estimation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The popularity of applying filtering theory in the environmental and hydrological sciences passed its first climax in the 1970s. Like so many other new mathematical methods it was simply the fashion at the time. The study of groundwater systems was not immune to this fashion, but neither was it by any means a prominent area of application. The spatial-temporal characteristics of groundwater flow are customarily described by analytical or, more frequently, numerical, physics-based models. Consequently, the state-space representations associated with filtering must be of a high order, with an immediately apparent computational over-burden. And therein lies part of the reason for the but modest interest there has been in applying Kalman filtering to groundwater systems, as reviewed critically in this paper. Filtering theory may be used to address a variety of problems, such as: state estimation and reconstruction, parameter estimation (including the study of uncertainty and its propagation), combined state-parameter estimation, input estimation, estimation of the variance-covariance properties of stochastic disturbances, the design of observation networks, and the analysis of parameter identifiability. A large proportion of previous studies has dealt with the problem of parameter estimation in one form or another. This may well not remain the focus of attention in the future. Instead, filtering theory may find wider application in the context of data assimilation, that is, in reconstructing fields of flow and the migration of sub-surface contaminant plumes from relatively sparse observations.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 65-82 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Flood flow ; threshold ; generalized Pareto ; Poisson
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This study uses the method of peaks over threshold (P.O.T.) to estimate the flood flow quantiles for a number of hydrometric stations in the province of New Brunswick, Canada. The peak values exceeding the base level (threshold), or `exceedances', are fitted by a generalized Pareto distribution. It is known that under the assumption of Poisson process arrival for flood exceedances, the P.O.T. model leads to a generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) for yearly maximum discharge values. The P.O.T. model can then be applied to calculate the quantiles X T corresponding to different return periods T, in years. A regionalization of floods in New Brunswick, which consists of dividing the province into `homogeneous regions', is performed using the method of the `region of influence'. The 100-year flood is subsequently estimated using a regionally estimated value of the shape parameter of the generalized Pareto distribution and a regression of the 100-year flood on the drainage area. The jackknife sampling method is then used to contrast the regional results with the values estimated at site. The variability of these results is presented in box-plot form.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 97-116 
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    Notes: Abstract : The knowledge of the volume and duration of low-flow events in river channels is essential for water management and the design of hydraulics structures. In this study, both preceding characteristics, X 1 and X 2, are considered simultaneously via two types of bivariate distributions whose marginals are exponential. One of these bivariate distributions has been presented by Nagao and Kadoya (1971) and the other has been used by Singh and Singh (1991) to the study of rainfall intensity and rainfall depth. The results are applied to the low-flow series (“peaks-below-threshold”) of Lepreau River (station 01AQ001) in New Brunswick, Canada. These results show that the model that was successfully employed by Singh and Singh (1991) to study rainfall, presents certain difficulties when a very strong correlation, ρ, between the two random variables X 1 and X 2, exists. The model by Nagao and Kadoya (1971) seems to be more satisfactory for such situations, although this model seems also to be quite sensitive to variations in ρ.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 83-96 
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    Notes: Abstract Many natural porous geological rock formations, as well as engineered porous structures, have fractal properties, i.e., they are self-similar over several length scales. While there have been many experimental and theoretical studies on how to quantify a fractal porous medium and on how to determine its fractal dimension, the numerical generation of a fractal pore structure with predefined statistical and scaling properties is somewhat scarcer. In the present paper a new numerical method for generating a three-dimensional porous medium with any desired probability density function (PDF) and autocorrelation function (ACF) is presented. The well-known Turning Bands Method (TBM) is modified to generate three-dimensional synthetic isotropic and anisotropic porous media with a Gaussian PDF and exponential-decay ACF. Porous media with other PDF's and ACF's are constructed with a nonlinear, iterative PDF and ACF transformation, whereby the arbitrary PDF is converted to an equivalent Gaussian PDF which is then simulated with the classical TBM. Employing a new method for the estimation of the surface area for a given porosity, the fractal dimensions of the surface area of the synthetic porous media generated in this way are then measured by classical fractal perimeter/area relationships. Different 3D porous media are simulated by varying the porosity and the correlation structure of the random field. The performance of the simulations is evaluated by checking the ensemble statistics, the mean, variance and ACF of the simulated random field. For a porous medium with Gaussian PDF, an average fractal dimension of approximately 2.76 is obtained which is in the range of values of actually measured fractal dimensions of molecular surfaces. For a porous medium with a non-Gaussian quadratic PDF the calculated fractal dimension appears to be consistently higher and averages 2.82. The results also show that the fractal dimension is neither strongly dependent of the porosity nor of the degree of anisotropy assumed.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 117-140 
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    Notes: Abstract Transport of non-ergodic solute plumes by steady-state groundwater flow with a uniform mean velocity, μ, were simulated with Monte Carlo approach in a two-dimensional heterogeneous and statistically isotropic aquifer whose transmissivity, T, is log-normally distributed with an exponential covariance. The ensemble averages of the second spatial moments of the plume about its center of mass, 〈S i i (t)〉, and the plume centroid covariance, R i i (t) (i=1,2), were simulated for the variance of Y=log T, σ Y 2=0.1, 0.5 and 1.0 and line sources normal or parallel to μ of three dimensionless lengths, 1, 5, and 10. For σ Y 2=0.1, all simulated 〈S i i (t)〉−S i i (0) and R i i (t) agree well with the first-order theoretical values, where S i i (0) are the initial values of S i i (t). For σ Y 2=0.5 and 1.0 and the line sources normal to μ, the simulated longitudinal moments, 〈S 11(t)〉−S 11(0) and R 11(t), agree well with the first-order theoretical results but the simulated transverse moments 〈S 22(t)〉−S 22(0) and R 22(t) are significantly larger than the first-order values. For the same two larger values of σ Y 2 but the line sources parallel to μ, the simulated 〈S 11(t)〉−S 11(0) are larger than but the simulated R 11 are smaller than the first-order values, and both simulated 〈S 22(t)〉−S 22(0) and R 22(t) stay larger than the first-order values. For a fixed value of σ Y 2, the summations of 〈S i i (t)〉−S i i (0) and R i i , i.e., X i i (i=1,2), remain almost the same no matter what kind of source simulated. The simulated X 11 are in good agreement with the first-order theory but the simulated X 22 are significantly larger than the first-order values. The simulated X 22, however, are in excellent agreement with a previous modeling result and both of them are very close to the values derived using Corrsin's conjecture. It is found that the transverse moments may be significantly underestimated if less accurate hydraulic head solutions are used and that the decreasing of 〈S 22(t)〉−S 22(0) with time or a negative effective dispersivity, defined as , may happen in the case of a line source parallel to μ where σ Y 2 is small.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 141-154 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Key words: Ground truth ; geostatistical techniques ; areal reduction factor ; Rainfall process ; linear relationship.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Geostatistical techniques are used to quantify the reference mean areal rainfall (ground truth) from sparse raingaugenetworks. Based on the EPSAT-Niger event cumulative rainfall, a linear relationship between the ground truth considered as the mean area rainfall estimated from the densely available raingauge network and the area rainfall estimated from sparse network are derived. Also, a linear relationship between the ground truth and point rainfall is established. As it was reported experimentally by some authors, the slope of these relationships is less than one. Based on the geostatistical framework, the slope and the ordinate at the origin can be estimated as a function of the spatial structure of the rainfall process. It is shown that the slope is smaller than one. For the special case of one gauge inside a fixed area or a Field Of View (FOV), an areal reduction factor is derived. It has a limit value which depends only on the size of the area and the spatial structure of the rainfall process. The relative variance error of estimating the FOV cumulative rainfall from point rainfall is also given.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 223-245 
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    Keywords: Key words: Stochastic differential equation ; spatial data ; irregularly sampled data ; parameter estimation.
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    Notes: Abstract: A second order stochastic differential equation is used for modeling of water-table elevation. The data were sampled at the Borden Aquifer as a part of a tracer experiment. The purpose of the water-table data collection was to determine presence of a water flow. We argue that the water-table surface is a simple plane oscillating up and down in time according to an equation for a stochastic oscillator. We derive the model, estimate its parameters and provide arguments for goodness-of-fit of the model.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 267-283 
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    Keywords: Key words: Flood frequency analysis ; TCEV ; non-systematic information ; regional ; statistical gain.
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract: Due to the social and economic implications, flood frequency analysis must be done with the highest precision. For this reason, the most suitable statistical model must be selected, and the maximum amount of information must be used. Floods in Mediterranean rivers can be produced by two different mechanisms, which forces the use of a non-traditional distribution like the TCEV. The information can be increased by using additional non-systematic data, or with a regional analysis, or both. Through the statistical gain concept, it has been shown that in most cases the use of additional non-systematic information can decrease the quantile estimation error in about 50%. In a regional analysis, the␣benefit of additional information in one station, is propagated to the rest of␣the␣stations with only a small decrease with respect to the at-site equivalent analysis.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 285-298 
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    Notes: Abstract We present a geostatistically based inverse model for characterizing heterogeneity in parameters of unsaturated hydraulic conductivity for three-dimensional flow. Pressure and moisture content are related to perturbations in hydraulic parameters through cross-covariances, which are calculated to first-order. Sensitivities needed for covariance calculations are derived using the adjoint state sensitivity method. Approximations of the conditional mean parameter fields are then obtained from the cokriging estimator. Correlation between parameters and pressure – moisture content perturbations is seen to be strongly dependent on mean pressure or moisture content. High correlation between parameters and pressure data was obtained under saturated or near saturated flow conditions, providing accurate estimation of saturated hydraulic conductivity, while moisture content measurements provided accurate estimation of the pore size distribution parameter under unsaturated flow conditions.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 247-266 
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    Keywords: Key words: Stochastic control ; dynamic programming ; reservoir systems ; hydrologic forecasting ; hydropower ; feedback control ; autoregressive models.
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    Notes: Abstract : As with all dynamic programming formulations, differential dynamic programming (DDP) successfully exploits the sequential decision structure of multi-reservoir optimization problems, overcomes difficulties with the nonconvexity of energy production functions for hydropower systems, and provides optimal feedback release policies. DDP is particularly well suited to optimizing large-scale multi-reservoir systems due to its relative insensitivity to state-space dimensionality. This advantage of DDP encourages expansion of the state vector to include additional multi-lag hydrologic information and/or future inflow forecasts in developing optimal reservoir release policies. Unfortunately, attempts at extending DDP to the stochastic case have not been entirely successful. A modified stochastic DDP algorithm is presented which overcomes difficulties in previous formulations. Application of the algorithm to a four-reservoir hydropower system demonstrates its capabilities as an efficient approach to solving stochastic multi-reservoir optimization problems. The algorithm is also applied to a single reservoir problem with inclusion of multi-lag hydrologic information in the state vector. Results provide evidence of significant benefits in direct inclusion of expanded hydrologic state information in optimal feedback release policies.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 12 (1998), S. 299-316 
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    Notes: Abstract This paper presents a geostatistical approach to multi-directional aquifer stimulation in order to better identify the transmissivity field. Hydraulic head measurements, taken at a few locations but under a number of different steady-state flow conditions, are used to estimate the transmissivity. Well installation is generally the most costly aspect of obtaining hydraulic head measurements. Therefore, it is advantageous to obtain as many informative measurements from each sampling location as possible. This can be achieved by hydraulically stimulating the aquifer through pumping, in order to set-up a variety of flow conditions. We illustrate the method by applying it to a synthetic aquifer. The simulations provide evidence that a few sampling locations may provide enough information to estimate the transmissivity field. Furthermore, the innovation of, or new information provided by, each measurement can be examined by looking at the corresponding spline and sensitivity matrix. Estimates from multi-directional stimulation are found to be clearly superior to estimates using data taken under one flow condition. We describe the geostatistical methodology for using data from multi-directional simulations and address computational issues.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 9 (1995), S. 33-47 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Hidden markov models ; maximum likelihood estimation ; EM algorithm ; martingale estimating function ; forward-backward algorithm ; Monte Carlo ; filtering ; Nash cascade model ; rainfall runoff modeling
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Many stochastic process models for environmental data sets assume a process of relatively simple structure which is in some sense partially observed. That is, there is an underlying process (Xn, n ≥ 0) or (Xt, t ≥ 0) for which the parameters are of interest and physically meaningful, and an observable process (Yn, n ≥ 0) or (Yt, t ≥ 0) which depends on the X process but not otherwise on those parameters. Examples are wide ranging: the Y process may be the X process with missing observations; the Y process may be the X process observed with a noise component; the X process might constitute a random environment for the Y process, as with hidden Markov models; the Y process might be a lower dimensional function or reduction of the X process. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the X process parameters can be carried out by some form of the EM algorithm applied to the Y process data. In the paper we review some current methods for exact and approximate maximum likelihood estimation. We illustrate some of the issues by considering how to estimate the parameters of a stochastic Nash cascade model for runoff. In the case of k reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a k dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the kth coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 9 (1995), S. 117-132 
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    Keywords: River Quality ; network ; computer model ; Thermodynamics
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    Notes: Abstract In this paper, concepts of network thermodynamics are applied to a river water quality model, which is based on Streeter-Phelps equations, to identify the corresponding physical components and their topology. Then, the randomness in the parameters, input coefficients and initial conditions are modeled by Gaussian white noises. From the stochastic components of the physical system description of problem and concepts of physical system theory, a set of stochastic differential equations can be automatically generated in a computer and the recent developments on the automatic formulation of the moment equations based on Ito calculus can be used. This procedure is illustrated through the solution of an example of stochastic river water quality problem and it is also shown how other related problems with different configurations can be automatically solved in a computer using just one software.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 9 (1995), S. 171-205 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: AR-AIC-Bayes filter ; autoregressive spectral density estimation ; diagnostic checks for ARMA models ; exploratory data analysis ; fast Fourier transform ; Hurst coefficient ; long-memory times series ; periodogram smoothing ; riverflow time series ; spectral density plots
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Current methods of estimation of the univariate spectral density are reviewed and some improvements are made. It is suggested that spectral analysis may perhaps be best thought of as another exploratory data analysis (EDA) tool which complements, rather than competes with, the popular ARMA model building approach. A new diagnostic check for ARMA model adequacy based on the nonparametric spectral density is introduced. Additionally, two new algorithms for fast computation of the autoregressive spectral density function are presented. For improving interpretation of results, a new style of plotting the spectral density function is suggested. Exploratory spectral analyses of a number of hydrological time series are performed and some interesting periodicities are suggested for further investigation. The application of spectral analysis to determine the possible existence of long memory in natural time series is discussed with respect to long riverflow, treering and mud varve series. Moreover, a comparison of the estimated spectral densities suggests the ARMA models fitted previously to these datasets adequately describe the low frequency component. Finally, the software and data used in this paper are available by anonymous ftp from fisher.stats.uwo.ca.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 9 (1995), S. 215-237 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Computation ; discretization ; entropy ; networks ; time averaging ; water quality
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    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The computational aspects of using a new, entropy-based, theory to predict water quality values at discontinued water quality monitoring stations are discussed. The main computational issues addressed are the level of discretization used in converting the continuous probability distribution of water quality values to the discrete levels required for the entropy function, and the choice of the interval of time for which to assign the value of the water quality (period of time averaging) through the entropy function. Unlike most cases of entropy applications involving discretization of continuous functions the results of using entropy theory to predict water quality values at discontinued monitoring stations in this application appear to be insensitive to the choice of the level of discretization even down to the very coarse level discretization associated with only eight intervals. However, depending on the length of record available the choice of the time interval for which the water quality values are assigned (period for time averaging) appear to have a significant impact on the accuracy of the results.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 9 (1995), S. 13-32 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Distributed parameter filter ; shallow water equations ; distributed dynamical systems ; data assimilation ; white Gaussian noise
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Distributed parameter filtering theory is employed for estimating the state variables and associated error covariances of a dynamical distributed system under highly random tidal and meteorological influences. The stochastic-deterministic mathematical model of the physical system under study consists of the shallow water equations described by the momentum and continuity equations in which the external forces such as Coriolis force, wind friction, and atmospheric pressure are considered. White Gaussian noises in the system and measurement equations are used to account for the inherent stochasticity of the system. By using an optimal distributed parameter filter, the information provided by the stochastic dynamical model and the noisy measurements taken from the actual system are combined to obtain an optimal estimate of the state of the system, which in turn is used as the initial condition for the prediction procedure. The approach followed here has numerical approximation carried out at the end, which means that the numerical discretization is performed in the filtering equations, and not in the equations modelling the system. Therefore, the continuous distributed nature of the original system is maintained as long as possible and the propagation of modelling errors in the problem is minimized. The appropriateness of the distributed parameter filter is demonstrated in an application involving the prediction of storm surges in the North Sea. The results confirm excellent filter performance with considerable improvement with respect to the deterministic prediction.
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    Stochastic environmental research and risk assessment 9 (1995), S. 77-88 
    ISSN: 1436-3259
    Keywords: Extreme rainfalls ; partial duration series ; regional estimation ; Bayes' theory
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Based on the Partial Duration Series model a regional Bayesian approach is introduced in the modelling of extreme rainfalls from a country-wide system of recording raingauges in Denmark. The application of the Bayesian principles is derived in case of both exponential and generalized Pareto-distributed exceedances. The method is applied to, respectively, the total precipitation depth and the maximum 10 minutes rain intensity of individual storms from 41 stations. By means of the regional analysis prior distributions of the parameters in the Partial Duration Series model are estimated. It is shown that the regional approach significantly reduces the uncertainty of the T-year event estimator compared to estimation based solely on at-site data. In addition, the regional approach provides quantile estimates at non-monitored sites.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 15 (1965), S. 32-45 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Description / Table of Contents: Summary Two cases of invasions of cold air into the Alpine region which have occurred in April 1962 are investigated. The polar air intruded from the north with a vertical extension up to 2500 m on the frontside of an upper trough. The Tiros observations combined with the synoptic and aerological data permitted to generalize a formerly derived formula valid for upper troughs for cold fronts [4]. It could be shown that the cold front caused bad weather as well north of the Alps as south of them when it passed below the frontside of the upper trough. Closed systems of clouds at cold fronts orginate more probably at the front of troughs than at their backside, where downstreams perforate the cloud cover.
    Abstract: Résumé On examine ici le comportement de deux invasions d'air froid d'origine polaire qui se sont manifestées dans les Alpes en avril 1962. L'air polaire a pénétré dans la région des Alpes en venant du nord. Il avait une épaisseur de 2500 m et se déplaçait à l'avant d'un couloir dépressionnaire en altitude. Les observations du satellite météorologique “Tiros” combinées aux valeurs synoptiques et aérologiques permettent de généraliser une règle établie précédemment, règle qui concerne les fronts froids liés à des couloirs dépressionnaires en altitude [4]. Il en résulte que le front froid, en franchissant la partie antérieure d'un couloir, provoque un temps maussade aussi bien au nord qu'au sud des Alpes. Des systèmes nuageux compactes se forment en général de préférence à l'avant des couloirs dépressionnaires en altitude, car, à l'arrière de ceux-ci, les mouvements de subsideance qui y règnent provoquent des trouées dans la nappe nuageuse.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Es werden zwei im April 1962 in den Alpen sich auswirkende polare Kaltlufteinbrüche untersucht. Die Polarluft drang von Norden her in den Alpenraum mit einer vertikalen Erstreckung bis zu 2500 m ein, und zwar an der Vorderseite eines Höhentroges. Die Tiros-Beobachtungen, kombiniert mit den synoptischen und aerologischen Meßdaten, erlaubten eine Verallgemeinerung einer früher abgeleiteten Höhentrogregel für Kaltfronten [4]. Es ergab sich, daß beim Unterlaufen der Höhentrog-Vorderseite die Kaltfront sowohl an der Alpennordseite als auch an der Alpensüdseite Schlechtwetter verursacht. Geschlossene Wolkensysteme an Kaltfronten entstehen ganz allgemein eher an der Trogvorderseite als an der Trogrückseite, wo absteigende Luftbewegungen die Wolkendecke durchlöchern.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 15 (1965), S. 50-61 
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Der Zusammenhang zwischen der mittleren vektoriellen Windscherung und dem Scherungsintervall wird analysiert. Dabei kann gezeigt werden, daß diese Beziehung von der Erhaltungsneigung (Persistenz) der Scherungsvektoren mit dem Intervall abhängt. Dasselbe gilt für die Beziehung der Streuungen mit dem Scherungsintervall. Die Persistenz nimmt bei zunehmendem Scherungsintervall nach einem exponentiellen Gesetz ab. Daraus läßt sich ein Exponent für den oben erwähnten und vom Autor an anderer Stelle [7] abgeleiteten Zusammenhang zwischen mittlerer vektorieller Windscherung und Scherungsintervall von ungefährt 1/2 berechnen. Für Extremwerte scheint dagegen der Exponent um 1/3 zu liegen. Dies mag damit erklärt werden, daß Abweichungen von der zweidimensionalen normalen zirkulären Verteilung auftreten, die exponentiell mit wachsendem Scherungsintervall abnehmen und somit den Exponenten verkleinern.
    Abstract: Résumé On analyse ici la relation existant entre le cisaillement vectoriel moyen du vent et l'intervalle en altitude de ce cisaillement. On peut ainsi démontrer que cette relation dépend de la persistance du vecteur de cisaillement avec l'intervalle. Il en va de même de la relation entre la dispersion et l'intervalle de cisaillement. La persistance diminue exponentiellement avec l'augmentation de l'intervalle. On peut calculer un exposant d'environ 1/2 pour la relation mentionnée plus haut et déduite d'autre par par le même auteur [7]. Dans des cas extrèmes, cet exposant est d'à peu près 1/3. Cela peut être expliqué par le fait que l'on rencontre des écarts de la répartition normale circulaire à deux dimensions. Ceux-ci diminuent exponentiellement avec l'accroissement de l'intervalle de cisaillement et font, par conséquent, diminuer la valeur de l'exposant.
    Notes: Summary The relationship between the mean of the vector shears and the shear interval is analyzed and linked to the persistence of vector shears with the shear interval. A similar relationship exists between the standard deviation of the vector shears and the shear interval. As the persistence follows an exponential law, decreasing reciprocally with the shear interval, the relationship between mean vector shears and the shear interval Δh assumes a power law with exponent around 1/2. The exponent of 1/3 found in relationships between extreme values and shear interval may be attributed to deviations of the frequency distribution of vector shear values from the bivariate circular distribution.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 15 (1965), S. 109-117 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary Observations with a RHI radar show that the so-called bright band, which is a layer of especially strong radar reflectivity, is only to be seen during the dissipating stage of convective precipitation cells (showers, thunderstorms). During the developing and mature stage of the cells one cannot observe the bright band.
    Abstract: Résumé Des relevés radar faits au moyen d'un appareil RHI montrent que l'apparition qu'il est convenu d'appeler «bright band» ne s'observe qu'au moment de la désagrégation de cellules convectives de précipitations (averses ou orages). La «bright band» est une couche dans laquelle la réflexion radar est spécialement intense. Si les dites cellules sont en formation ou bien développées, on n'observe par contre pas de «bright band».
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Radarbeobachtungen mit einem RHI-Radargerät zeigen, daß das sogenannte Bright Band, eine Schicht besonders starker Radar-Reflektivität, nur im Auflösungsstadium konvektiver Niederschlagszellen (Schauer, Gewitter) zu beobachten ist. Im Bildungs- und Reifestadium der Zellen wird das Bright Band nicht beobachtet.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 16 (1967), S. 169-180 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary On the basis of a spring blocking-situation, which lasted for 16 days (March 2 to 18, 1955), the author studied the dynamic processes in building up and maintaining of a blocking-situation. Whereas during the preceding period of the blocking a northward transport of angular momentum of the air had occurred, during the blocking itself the angular momentum is transported southward. Besides, the author has analyzed thoroughly the development phases of 25 blockings, which had occurred in a period of eight years, and gives a table with the most important results.
    Abstract: Résumé On étudie ici les phénomènes dynamiques qui se produisent lors de l'établissement et du maintien d'une situation de blocage. Pour ce faire, on se sert d'une situation de printemps qui a duré 16 jours (du 2 au 18 mars 1955). Pendant la période précédent le blocage, on constate un déplacement vers le nord du moment de rotation absolu de la vitesse de l'air. Pendant la période de blocage elle-même, le moment de rotation absolu se décale au contraire vers le sud. On analyse en outre très exactement l'évolution de 25 cas de blocage répartis sur 8 ans. Les résultats les plus importants de cette analyse sont rapportés sous forme de tables.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung An Hand einer 16tägigen Frühjahrblockingsituation (2. 3. bis 18. 3. 1955) wurden die dynamischen Vorgänge bei der Bildung und Aufrechterhaltung der Blockinglage studiert. Während in der Vorperiode des Blockings ein Nordwärtstransport von absolutem Rotationsmoment der Geschwindigkeit der Luft stattfindet, wird während der Blockingsituation selbst das absolute Rotationsmoment nach Süden verfrachtet. Weiters wurden die Entwicklungsvorgänge von 25 Blockingfällen während eines Zeitraumes von acht Jahren genau analysiert und die wichtigsten Ergebnisse tabellarisch zusammengestellt.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 16 (1967), S. 181-211 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Description / Table of Contents: Summary Based on 21 571 daily upper wind measurements the authors derive the dependences on altitude of the scalar and vector means of the wind speed, of the zonal and meridional components, of the mean resultant wind and of the constancy of the wind up to 30 km above Vienna for each month and also the annual variation of the wind speed and of the frequency distributions of the wind directions for the various levels. The peculiarities are thoroughly discussed and explanations could be given for most of them. One finds out that, during the transitional seasons, the upper winds show a remarkable behaviour in some months, which cannot be explained easily. The annual variations of the scalar as well as of the vectorial mean wind speeds present double-waves even in the troposphere, apart of the lowest levels. Partly, the extremes of these double-waves in the upper troposphere, are inverse to those in the lower stratosphere. At altitudes above 18 km the transition from the winter westerlies to the summer easterlies in spring advances only gradually from the larger heights to the lower ones, however, the reverse transition occurs very sharply with the change from August to September. Therefore, in investigations of the upper winds, it is very necessary to use the data of the single months separately as in seasonal combinations some essential characteristics are obscured.
    Abstract: Résumé Partant de 21 571 mesures journalières du vent en altitude, mesures effectuées à Vienne (Autriche), les auteurs discutent et cherchent à expliquer les particularités de cet élément météorologique. Pour ce faire, ils ont établi pour chaque mois la variation de la valeur scalaire et vectorielle de la vitesse du vent, ses composantes zonale et méridienne, la translation de l'air qui en résulte, la persistance du vent avec l'altitude jusqu'à 30 km ainsi que la variation annuelle de la vitesse du vent et la répartition des fréquences de sa direction aux différents niveaux. Il en découle que, durant les périodes de transition entre les saisons, les conditions de vent en altitude présentent un comportement particulier au quelques mois, ce qui n'est pas facile à expliquer. La variation annuelle des valeurs scalaires et vectorielles de la vitesse du vent présentent, abstraction faite des couches voisines du sol, mais dans la troposphère déjà, des ondulations doubles dont les extrêmes sont opposés, dans la troposphère supérieure, à ceux de la basse stratosphère. Aux altitudes supérieures à 18 km, le changement des courants d'ouest, dominent durant l'hiver, à ceux d'est qui se rencontrent en été se fait progressivement au printemps des couches les plus élevées vers les plus basses. Le phénomène inverse se produit par contre brusquement d'août à septembre. Il est par conséquent indispensable, dans les recherches des conditions de vent en altitude, de considérer les mois individuellement, car un groupement par saison en estomperait les caractéristiques principales.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Aus 21 571 täglichen Höhenwindmessungen werden für jeden Monat die Änderungen der skalaren und der vektoriellen Mittelwerte der Windgeschwindigkeit, der zonalen und der meridionalen Komponenten der Windgeschwindigkeit, der resultierenden Luftversetzung und der Beständigkeit des Windes mit der Höhe bis 30 km über Wien sowie der Jahresgang der Windgeschwindigkeit und der Häufigkeitsverteilung der Windrichtungen für die verschiedenen Höhenstufen abgeleitet und in ihren Besonderheiten eingehend diskutiert und zu erklären versucht. Dabei ergibt sich, daß in den Übergangsjahreszeiten die Höhenwindverhältnisse in einzelnen Monaten ein auffallendes Verhalten zeigen, das nicht einfach zu erklären ist. Die Jahresgänge der skalaren wie auch der vektoriellen Geschwindigkeitswerte weisen auch, abgesehen von den bodennahen Schichten, bereits in der Troposphäre Doppelwellen auf, deren Extreme in der oberen Troposphäre zum Teil den Extremen in der unteren Stratosphäre entgegengesetzt sind. In Höhen über 18 km erfolgt der Übergang von der im Winter vorherrschenden westlichen Strömung zum sommerlichen Ostwind im Frühling allmählich von den höchsten Schichten nach unten fortschreitend, der umgekehrte Übergang vom August zum September dagegen sehr scharf. Es ist daher notwendig, bei Untersuchungen der Höhenwindverhältnisse die einzelnen Monate besonders in Betracht zu ziehen, da bei einer Zusammenfassung nach Jahreszeiten wesentliche Merkmale verwischt werden.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 16 (1967), S. 242-259 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die Wärmebilanzgleichung für die Unterseite von schwimmendem Meereis wird an Hand von Beobachtungen der Eistemperatur, der Wassertemperatur, der Strömungsgeschwindigkeit und der Eisdickenänderung ausgewertet. Unter der Annahme gleicher Austauschkoeffizienten für Bewegungsgröße, Wärme und Salzgehalt (im Mittel 24 cm2 sec−1) ergibt sich für die ozeanische Grenzschicht ein außerordentlich kleiner Gradient der Wassertemperatur (durchschnittlich zwischen 2.10−5 und 4.10−4°C/Meter), der durch direkte Beobachtungen schwer nachzuweisen ist. Es ist zu vermuten, daß ein beträchtlicher Teil der Wärmeabgabe von der relativ warmen atlantischen Wassermasse an die arktische Atmosphäre durch Öffnungen in der Meereisdecke erfolgt.
    Abstract: Résumé On établit l'équation du bilan thermique valable pour la surface inférieure de la glace marine dérivante. Pour ce faire, on se sert d'observations de la température de la glace, de celle de l'eau, de la vitesse du courant et des variations de l'épaisseur de la glace. En admettant que les coefficients d'échange sont les mêmes pour la quantité de mouvement, la chaleur et le taux de salinité (en moyenne 24 cm2 sec−1), il résulte pour la couche limite un gradient extrêmement faible de la température de l'eau (situé en moyenne entre 2·10−5 et 4·10−4°C/m); un tel gradient est difficile à prouver au moyen d'observations directes. On peut supposer qu'une partie importante de la chaleur transmise par l'eau relativement chaude de l'Atlantique à l'atmosphère arctique passe au travers des lacunes de la couche de glace recouvrant l'océan.
    Notes: Summary The heat balance equation for the bottom surface of floating sea ice is evaluated on the basis of observations of ice temperature, water temperature, current velocity, and ablation or accretion of ice. Assuming equality of the eddy diffusivities for momentum, heat, and salt (average 24 cm2 sec−1) it is shown that the temperature gradient in the oceanic boundary layer is extremely small (averages between 2.10−5 and 4.10−4°C/meter) and difficult to measure directly. It is suggested that a large part of the heat transfer from the relatively warm Atlantic water to the arctic atmosphere may occur through open leads in the ice cover.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 16 (1967), S. 260-266 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary In this investigation the anomaly-effect on the ionosphericE-layer critical frequency (ordinary component,f 0 E), which is observed frequently during the forenoon hours, has been calculated for 80 selected diurnal variations on simplified conditions. The received results are compared with Appleton's theory.
    Abstract: Résumé L'effet du retardement de la fréquence critique de la couche-E ionospherique (composante ordinaire,f 0 E) qu'on peut observer souvent durant les heures avant midi, est examiné pour 80 enregistrements diurnes á conditions simplifiées. Les résultats reçus sont comparés avec la théorie d'Appleton.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Der zeitliche Verlauf der Vormittags-Anomalie in den Tagesgängen der kritischen Frequenzen der normalenE-Schicht (Verlangsamung des Anstieges der Elektronendichte kurz vor dem Ortsmittag im Vergleich zur Chapman-Schicht) wurde unter vereinfachten Voraussetzungen für 80 ausgewählte Tagesgänge des Jahres 1958 berechnet. Die erhaltenen Ergebnisse werden mit der Appletonschen Theorie verglichen.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 16 (1967), S. 301-313 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary The position, direction and speed of the high-tropospheric jet-streams in the years 1955 to 1963 were determined from the 300 mb chart of the Daily Weather Map of the German Weather Service. The seasonal variations of the positions, intensities and directions of the polarfront jet (PFJ) and subtropic jet (STJ) in the region between 20° W and 20° E and between 35° N and 70° N have been evaluated and are discussed here.
    Abstract: Résumé En partant des cartes journalières de la surface de 300 mb éditées par le service météorologique de la République fédérale d'Allemagne, on a déterminé la position, la direction et la vitesse des courants “jets” de la troposphère supérieure et cela pour la période 1955 à 1963. On indique et on discute les variations saisonnières de la position, de l'intensité et de la direction du “jet” accompagnant le front polaire (PFJ) et du “Jet” subtropical (STJ). La zone étudiée s'étend entre le 20ème méridien E et le 20ème méridien W, respectivement entre les 35ème et 70ème paralèlles N.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Aus der 300mb-Fläche der täglichen Wetterkarte des deutschen Wetterdienstes wurden für den Zeitraum von 1955 bis 1963 Lage, Richtung und Geschwindigkeit der hochtroposphärischen Strahlströme bestimmt. Die jahreszeitlichen Änderungen der Positionen, Intensitäten und Richtungen des Polarfront-Jet (PFJ) und des Subtropen-Jet (STJ) werden für den Bereich von 20° W bis 20° E und von 35° N bis 70° N angegeben und diskutiert.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 16 (1967), S. 314-320 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary The variations of the total ozone amount at ten european stations were correlated in couples. The correlation coefficients decrease exponentially with increasing distance of the stations. From this exponential law the mean extension of low stratospheric air-parcels was determined to be 670 km. On computing the correlation coefficients a time shift was observed which demonstrates the predominantly zonal west east ozone transport.
    Abstract: Résumé On a établi les corrélations des variations de l'ozone total relevé à 10 stations enropéennes prises deux par deux. Les coefficients de corrélation qui en résultent sont, en moyenne, en relation exponentielle avec la distance séparant les stations. De cette diminution, on a estimé à 670 km l'étendue moyenne des gouttes d'air stratosphériques. Un décalage dans le temps, lors du calcul des coefficients de corrélation, montre clairement le transport généralement zonal de l'ozone de l'ouest vers l'est.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Die Variationen des Gesamtozonbetrages an zehn europäischen Stationen wurden paarweise korreliert. Die Korrelationskoeffizienten fallen im Mittel exponentiell mit der Entfernung der Stationen ab. Aus diesem Abfall wurde die mittlere Ausdehnung stratosphärischer Luftpakete mit 670 km abgeschätzt. Eine zeitliche Verschiebung bei der Berechnung der Korrelationskoeffizienten veranschaulicht den vorwiegend zonalen West-Ost-Ozontransport.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 16 (1967), S. 382-388 
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 17 (1968), S. 8-16 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung An Hand eines konkreten Falles wird gezeigt, daß die Aufspaltung des Jet Streams in mehrere Äste, wie dies häufig über den Vereinigten Staaten an der Vorderseite intensiver Jet Maxima beobachtet wird, mit der Erhaltung der potentiellen Vorticity innerhalb einer Luftschicht, die sich über ein Hindernis bewegt, erklärt werden kann. Ein derartiges Hindernis kann einerseits durch ein Gebirge gegeben sein, wie etwa die Rocky Mountains, andererseits aber auch durch eine sich nur langsam fortbewegende Kaltluftmasse in der unteren Troposphäre. Eine solche ist für Kaltluftausbrüche im Zusammenhang mit intensiven Strahlströmen charakteristisch.
    Abstract: Résumé En se basant sur un cas particulier, on montre que la subdivision d'un courant “jet” en plusieurs bras distincts — fait souvent observé au dessus des Etats Unis d'Amérique à l'avant de la zone d'intensité maximum — peut s'expliquer par la conservation de l'énergie tourbillonnaire potentielle d'une couche d'air se déplaçant sur un obstacle. Un tel obstacle peut être soit une importante chaîne de montagnes telles que les Rocheuses, soit une masse d'air froid se déplaçant lentement dans la basse troposphère, comme c'est typiquement le cas lorsqu'une invasion d'air froid est liée à un fort courant “jet”.
    Notes: Summary It is shown from a case study that the splitting of jet streams into several branches, which is frequently observed over the United States on the leading edges of intense maxima, may be explained by conservation of potential vorticity within an atmospheric layer moving over an obstacle. Such an obstacle may be a large mountain barrier, such as the Rocky Mountains, or a slowmoving dome of cold air in the lower troposphere, as is typical for cold outbreaks associated with strong jet streams.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 17 (1968), S. 17-29 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Es wird eine systematische Phänomenologie der luftelektrischen Erscheinungen innerhalb und in der Umgebung von Wolken und Niederschlägen, soweit sie nicht mit Gewittern verbunden sind, entwickelt. Sie erstreckt sich auf niedrige Schichtwolken, Cumulus humilis, Cumuli im Wachstumsstadium sowie Cu congestus und schließt typische stabile Aufgleitprozesse mit Übergang von Altocumulus über Altostratus in Nimbostratus bei absinkender Basis ein. Die schlüsselhafte Bedeutung des Aggregatzustandes der Niederschläge und des Turbulenzgrades innerhalb der Wolken für das Verständnis der atmosphärisch-elektrischen Prozesse und ihrer Systematisierung im Rahmen einer Phänomenologie wird dargestellt.
    Abstract: Résumé On développe ici un système des phénomènes électriques atmosphériques au voisinage et à l'intérieur des nuages et des précipitations, pour autant que ces deux catégories d'hydrométéores ne soient pas liées à des orages. Cette classification s'étend aux nuages stratiformes bas, aux cumulus humilis, aux cumulus en plein développement ainsi qu'aux cumulus congestus, Elle englobe en outre des processus de glissement ascendant stables et typiques tels que le passage de l'altocumulus au nimbus en passant par l'altostratus et cela par abaissement de la base du nuage. On souligne la signification de l'état des précipitations et du degré de turbulence à l'intérieur du nuage pour la compréhension des processus électriques atmosphériques et leur systématisation.
    Notes: Summary An attempt is made to develop a systematic, phenomenological classification of non-thunderstorm clouds based on the electrical characteristics of such clouds, and to derive a similar classification of precipitation from the electrical properties of hydrometeors. The system, as proposed, will cover low stratus, cumulus humilis, convective cumulus and cumulus congestus, and also the cloud configuration associated with stable upslide situations characterized by a continuous transition, in time and space, from altocumulus to altostratus and nimbostratus, with the bases of the latter steadily losing altitude. The significance of the physical state of hydrometeors and of the intensity of turbulence in clouds as a key to atmospheric-electrical phenomena, and the interpretation and phenomenological classification thereof, is stressed.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 17 (1968), S. 88-89 
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 17 (1968), S. 61-77 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary In the present paper the authors investigate the stream field over the Alpine region. For the comparison of the wind frequencies observed at two stations the representation of the frequencies of wind direction in matrix notation proved to be very useful. From such a matrix one can immediately read off the frequencies of the simultaneous wind directions at the stationB, when the direction at the stationA is held fast. The frequency distributions of the wind directions at the single stationsA andB result as the sums of the columns and of the rows of the wind matrix. The matrix allows to specify index numbers (e. g. the trace of the matrix) which characterize the simultaneous wind conditions at a pair of stations,AB, the change of direction from one station to the other and so on.
    Abstract: Résumé Dans le présent travail, on étudie le champ des courants dans la région des Alpes. Pour comparer la fréquence du vent à 2 stations, il est apparu que la représentation de la fréquence des directions du vent sous forme de matrice était parfaitement utilisable. Il est possible de tirer immédiatement d'une telle matrice la direction du vent dans une stationB en partant de la direction du vent observée au même moment en une stationA. La répartition des fréquences de la direction du vent aux stationsA etB résulte de la somme des colonnes, respectivement des lignes de la matrice. Une telle matrice permet également de tirer des grandeurs caractéristiques de la paire des stationsA etB. Ces grandeurs expliquent mieux l'apparition simultanée des mêmes directions (trace de la matrice), les rotations du vent d'une station par rapport à l'autre, etc.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung In der vorliegenden Arbeit wird das Strömungsfeld im Bereich der Alpen untersucht. Für einen Vergleich der Windhäufigkeiten zwischen zwei Stationen stellte sich eine Darstellung der Häufigkeiten der Windrichtungen in Matrixform als sehr brauchbar heraus. Man kann aus einer solchen Windmatrix bei einer festgehaltenen Windrichtung in der StationA sofort die Häufigkeiten der gleichzeitigen Windrichtungen in der StationB ablesen. Die Häufigkeitsverteilungen der Windrichtungen an den einzelnen StationenA undB ergeben sich aus der Summe der Spalten bzw. der Zeilen der Windmatrix. Mittels einer solchen Windmatrix ist man auch in der Lage, für das betreffende StationspaarAB charakteristische Kenngrößen anzugeben, die das gleichzeitige Auftreten von Windrichtungen (Spur der Matrix), die Drehung des Windes und dergleichen mehr beschreiben.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 17 (1968), S. 78-87 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Auf einer Fläche von etwa 0,3 km2 wurde am Hintereis- und Langtaufererjochferner (Ötztaler Alpen) die Verteilung der Deformationen und der Spannungen an der Oberfläche bestimmt. Dazu wurde in den Jahren von 1957 bis 1963 ein Pegelnetz, bestehend aus 30 Pegeln in etwa 2750 m Seehöhe, vermessen. Die Gletscheroberfläche zeigt beim Zusammenfluß beider Gletscher ein Gebiet ohne Spalten, bedingt durch hohe Kompressionen, und ein Gebiet mit Querspalten, die durch seitliche Quetschung in Verbindung mit kleinen Zugspannungen entstehen. Die Spaltenbildung stimmt mit der Spannungsverteilung in bezug auf Größe und Richtung des Spannungszustandes überein.
    Abstract: Résumé On a déterminé la répartition des déformations et des tensions à la surface des glaciers du Hintereis et du Langtaufererjoch (Alpes de l'Ötztal, Autriche) et cela sur, une surface de 0.3 km2. Ces mesures furent effectuées de 1957 à 1963 et on s'est servi pour cela d'un, réseau de 30 échelles nivométriques situées à environ 2750 m d'altitude. La surface présente, au confluent des deux glaciers une zone sans crevasses due à de hautes compressions et une zone zébrée de crevasses transversales dues à des forces de compression, latérale liées à de petites tensions. La formation des crevasses correspond à la répartition des tensions et cela aussi bien en ce qui concerne leur direction que leur importance.
    Notes: Summary The distribution of strain-rates and stresses was determined in an area of approximately 0.3 km2. For this purpose a network of 30 stakes was established on the Hintereisferner and Langtaufererjochferner (Oetztal Alps, Austria) in an altitude of approximately 2750 m in the years between 1957 and 1963. The region of the confluence of the Hintereisferner and the Langtaufererjochferner shows both, an area without crevasses, where high compressing strainrates and stresses occur, and an area with transverse crevasses formed by high lateral compressive stresses in combination with small tensile stresses. The formation of crevasses is a good agreement with the distribution of stresses concerning direction and magnitude.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 17 (1968), S. 101-113 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die Kovarianz zwischen Temperatur und meridionaler Windkomponente wurde für 18 Stationen der nördlichen Hemisphäre für 2km-Intervalle vom Boden bis 28 km berechnet. Diese Kovarianzen sind dem nach Norden gerichteten mittleren Strom der Wärme proportional, verursacht durch wandernde Wirbel. Für 80°W wurden Querschnitte der Kovarianz zwischen Temperatur und meridionaler Windkomponente konstruiert. In diesem Meridianschnitt tritt ein Minimum des turbulenten Wärmeflusses in nahezu 20 km Höhe in allen Breiten im Januar auf; in höheren Breiten beginnt eine plötzliche Zunahme mit der Höhe zwischen 18 und 22 km. Dieser turbulente Wärmefluß ist im allgemeinen in der unteren Stratosphäre unterhalb 20 km ziemlich klein. Ein ähnliches Verhalten wird bei der französischen Station Chateauroux gefunden. Die Schicht, welche die Regionen des kleinen und des großen turbulenten Wärmeflusses trennt, scheint mit einer vonFaust besprochenen Nullschicht zusammenzufallen. Diese scharfe Trennungslinie zwischen unterer Stratosphäre mit kleinem turbulenten Wärmefluß und der oberen Stratosphäre mit größeren Wirbelköpern der Wärme tritt jedoch nicht an allen Längengraden auf. Über Alaska findet man einen maximalen turbulenten Wärmestrom zwischen 20 und 22 km; auch die Werte in der unteren Stratosphäre sind dort viel größer als diejenigen um 80°W.
    Abstract: Résumé On a calculé la covariance existant entre la température et la composante méridionale du vent. Ces calculs, ont été effectués pour des intervalles de 2 km du sol à 28 km et cela pour 18 stations, de l'hémisphère nord. Ces nord et provoqués par des tourbillons mobiles. On a construit des sections de la covariance entre température et composante méridionale du vent à 80° de longitude W. Sous cette longitude, on constate en janvier un minimum du flux turbulent de chaleur à environ 20 km d'altitude et cela sous toutes les latitudes. Dans les latitudes élevées, on constate en outre une brusque augmentation de ce flux avec l'altitude et cela entre 18 et 22 km. Ce flux turbulent de chaleur est en général assez faible dans les basses couches de la stratosphère, c'est à dire au-dessous de 20 km. On trouve des conditions similaires, à la station française de Chateauroux. La couche qui sépare les régions présentant des flux turbulents de chaleur faible et important semble coïncider avec la “couche nulle” deFaust. Cette nette ligne de séparation entre la stratosphère inférieure présentant un faible flux turbulent de chaleur et la stratosphère supérieure comportant des corps tourbillonnaires de chaleur importants ne se rencontre cependant pas sous toutes les longitudes. Au-dessus de l'Alaska, on rencontre un courant turbulent de chaleur maximum entre 20 et 22 km. Les valeurs de la stratosphère inférieure y sont aussi beaucoup plus grandes que celles trouvées à 80° de longitude ouest.
    Notes: Summary Covariances of temperature and meridional wind component at 18 stations in the Northern Hemisphere were computed at 2km-intervals from the surface to 28 km. These covariances are proportional to the northward flux of sensible heat resulting from transient eddies. Cross sections of covariance of temperature and meridional wind component during January and July were constructed for 80°W. At this longitude during January a minimum of eddy heat flux occurred near an altitude of 20 km at all latitudes, and in the higher latitudes a sharp increase began somewhere between 18 km and 22 km. Eddy heat fluxes were generally quite small, in the part of the stratosphere below 20 km. A similar pattern was found at the French station of Chateauroux. The layer which separates the regions of small and large eddy heat fluxes appears to coincide with a null layer described byFaust. However, this sharp dividing line between a lower stratosphere with small eddy heat fluxes and an upper stratosphere with large eddy heat fluxes does not appear at all longitudes. Over Alaska one finds maximum eddy heat fluxes between 20 km and 22 km, and values in the lower stratosphere are much larger than those near 80° W.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 14 (1965), S. 279-299 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusasmmenfassung Es werden die Änderungen der thermischen Struktur der Luftmassen im Alpengebiet und im westlichen Mittelmeerraum bei der Entwicklung von Zyklonen im Golf von Genua aufgezeigt und die Einflüsse von Höhe und Form der Gebirgszüge sowie von nichtadiabatischen Vorgängen auf die Deformation der relativen Topographie besprochen. Diese Faktoren werden auch zur Modifikation der in der Methode vonEstoque für ein baroklines Modell verwendeten Gleichungen in Betracht gezogen und damit wird eine neue Methode zur Vorhersage der Zyklogenese unter dem Einfluß von Gebirgszügen entwickelt.
    Abstract: Résumé On expose dans ce mémoire à quelles modifications la structure thermique des masses d'air est soumise dans la région des Alpes et dans le bassin occidental de la Méditerranée lors du développement de dépressions sur le Golfe de Gênes. On y discute en outre l'influence de la hauteur et de la forme des chaînes de montagnes ainsi que celle des processus non-adiabatiques sur des déformations de la topographie relative. Tous ces éléments sont pris en considération pour leur adapter les équations utilisées dans le modèle baroclined'Estoque. Par là, on accède à une nouvelle méthode de prévision de la cyclogénèse, méthode qui tient compte de l'influence des chaînes de montagnes.
    Notes: Summary Changes occurring in the thermal structure of air masses in the Alps area and the West Mediterranean region, during cyclonic developments in the Gulf of Genoa, have been considered. The effect of the height and the form of the mountain ranges as well as that of the nonadiabatic processes, on the deformation of the thickness pattern, have been discussed. These factors have been further taken into consideration for a modification of the equations used inEstoque's method for the baroclinic model, and a new method has been developed for forecasting cyclogenesis in regions bounded by mountain ranges.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 14 (1965), S. 300-305 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary Making use of a statistical theory developed byK. Cehak probabilities are given for the occurrence of maxima of wind velocity of given amount and minimum-amount. This is done on the base of informations about the spectral density distribution of the kinetic energy of the wind.
    Abstract: Résumé Partant d'une théorie statistique développée parK. Cehak, l'auteur calcule les probabilités d'apparition de vents maximum. Pour ce faire, il se sert d'informations touchant la répartition spectrale de la densité d'énergie cinétique du vent. Les dites probabilités sont en outre établies pour quelques valeurs totales et pour des grandeurs minimum admises préalablement.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Nach einer vonK. Cehak entwickelten statistischen Theorie werden mittels Informationen über die spektrale Dichteverteilung der kinetischen Energie des Windes Wahrscheinlichkeiten für das Auftreten von Geschwindigkeitsmaxima von vorgegebener Größe und Mindestgröße angegeben.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 14 (1965), S. 318-342 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Es wird ein neues Modell für ein Spektrometer zur Bestimmung der Ionenbeweglichkeit beschrieben, das auf den wesentlichen Konstruktionseigenschaften des Kernzählers vonPollak undNolan beruht. Es wird zur Analyse der Größenverteilung eines künstlichen Aerosols von Aitken-Kernen in verschiedenen Zerfallstadien benützt. Das Instrument hat sich in seiner ersten Ausführung als recht befriedigend erwiesen, und es werden Anregungen für seine Verbesserung diskutiert.
    Abstract: Résumé L'auteur présente un nouveau modèle de spectromètre pour la mesure de la mobilité des ions. Cet appareil est basé sur les propriétés de conception du compteur de noyaux dePollak etNolan. Il s'emploie pour analyser la répartition des grandeurs d'un aérosole artificiel comprenant des noyaux de Aitken à différents stades de décomposition. L'instrument est tout à fait satisfaisant dans sa forme originale et l'on présente différentes suggestions pour l'améliorer encore.
    Notes: Summary A novel form of ionic mobility spectrometer is described, based on the intrinsic properties of the construction of thePollak-Nolan nucleus counter. It is used for the size-frequency analysis of an artificial aerosol of Aitken nuclei at various stages in its decay. The first, construction of the instrument has been found to perform quite satisfactorily; suggestions for its improvement are discussed.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 14 (1965), S. 361-379 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die sphärische harmonische Analyse der 24stündigen Bodenluftdruckschwankung zeigt, daß ihr Hauptteil durch eine mit der Sonne westwärts wandernde Welle dargestellt werden kann. Die Amplitude dieser Welle ist ungefähr die Hälfte der 12stündigen Schwankung [Gleichung (7)]. Zur Diskussion der thermischen Erregung der 24stündigen Schwankung wurden die äquivalenten Tiefen (Tabelle 4) und Hough-Funktionen (Tabellen 5, 6) für die drei niedrigsten symmetrischen Typen berechnet. Es besteht keine Schwierigkeit, auf Grund der Theorie der thermischen Erregung zu erklären, warum die 24stündige Schwankung viel kleiner ist als die 12stündige, selbst wenn die letztere nicht bedeutend durch Resonanz vergrößert wird.
    Abstract: Résumé L'analyse harmonique sphérique des variations de pression au sol en 24 heures montre que sa partie principale peut être repés entée par une onde se propageant vers l'ouest avec le soleil. L'amplitude de cette onde est d'à peu près la moitié de la variation en 12 heures [équation (7)]. Pour la discussion de la stimulation thermique de la variation en 24 heures, on a calculé les dépressions équivalentes (tableau 4) ainsi que les fonctions de Hough (tableux 5 et 6) et cela pour les trois types de symétrie les plus bas. En se basant sur la théorie de la stimulation thermique, il n'est pas di fficile d'expliquer pourquoi les variations en 24 heures sont beaucoup plus faibles que celles se produisant en 12 heures, même si ces dernières ne sont pas notablement renforcées par des effects de résonance.
    Notes: Summary A spherical harmonic analysis of the diurnal surface pressure oscillation shows that its main part can be represented by a wave travelling westward with the sun. The amplitude of this wave is about half of that of the semidiurnal oscillation [eq. (7)]. For the discussion of the excitation of the diurnal oscillation the equivalent depths (Table 4) and Hough functions (Table 5, 6) for the three lowest symmetrical modes are computed. There is no difficulty in accounting for the smallness of the diurnal oscillation compared to the semidiurnal oscillation on the basis of thermal excitation, even if the semidiural oscillation is not greatly magnified by resonance.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 14 (1965), S. 409-419 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary The dependency of the speed of the zonal wind in the 850mb surface in one latitude on the speed in another latitude can qualitatively be compared with a model atmosphere according toRossby. With preservation of the angular momentum and the absolute vorticity a decrease of the zonal wind speed must occur in high latitudes when the zonal wind speed increases in low latitudes and vice versa. Further, it can be shown that the index cycle in the sense ofRiehl, Namias orDefant, and with it the zonal windprofile itself are less suitable for being used in the weather service as additional help in making medium range forecasts.
    Abstract: Résumé La dépendance entre la vitesse du vent zonal trouvée à 850 mb à une certaine latitude et celle d'une autre latitude peut être comparée — qualitativement — au modèle d'atmosphère selonRossby. Du fait de la persistance du moment absolu de l'impulsion et des échanges du moment tourbillonnaire absolu, il faut qu'à une augmentation de la vitesse du vent zonal dans les basses latitudes corresponde une diminution de cette vitesse aux latitudes élevées, et vice versa. Il en résulte en outre que le cycle des index, p. ex. dans le sens des définitions deRiehl, Namias ouDefant, — et par voie de conséquence les profils de vents zonaux eux-mêmes — s'avèrent inadéquats pour leur utilisation par les services métérologiques comme auxiliaires supplémentaires pour la prévision à moyenne échéance.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Die Abhängigkeit der zonalen Windgeschwindigkeit in einer geographischen Breite von der in einer anderen Breite, wie sie für das 850 mb-Niveau gefunden wurde, kann qualitativ mit den Modellvorstellungen vonRossby verglichen werden. Aus der Erhaltung des absoluten Impulsmomentes und der absoluten Vorticity folgt bei einer Zunahme der zonalen Windgeschwindigkeit in niedrigen Breiten eine Abnahme in höheren Breiten und umgekehrt. Es ergibt sich ferner, daß sich der Indexzyklus im Sinne vonRiehl, Namias oderDefant und damit auch die zonalen Windprofile selbst für eine Verwendung im Wetterdienst als zusätzliches Hilfsmittel für mittelfristige Prognosen als nicht sehr geeignet erweisen.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 14 (1965), S. 441-448 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary The investigation of single cases shows that the horizontal extension of shower cells depends on the vertical wind distribution. The more the wind increases with height, the larger is the perimeter of the shower cell.
    Abstract: Résumé L'examen de cas isolés montre que le diamètre horizontal des cellules de précipitations sous forme d'averses dépend en grande partie de la répartition des vents en altitude. Cette dépendance s'exerce en ce sens que la cellule de précipitations est d'autant plus étendue que le vent augmente avec l'altitude.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Die Untersuchung von Einzelfällen zeigt, daß die Größe der Horizontaldurchmesser von Schauerzellen offenbar stark von der vertikalen Windverteilung abhängt, und zwar in dem Sinne, daß die Niederschlagszellen um so größer sind, je stärker der Wind mit der Höhe zunimmt.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 14 (1965), S. 427-440 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary According toH. Dessens [1] the only factor that changes a thunderstorm into an intense hailstorm is a strong horizontal wind at heights between 6000 and 12000 m. The dependence of thunderstorm and hail on the direction and speed of upper wind on the southern slope of the Alps has been investigated by means of statistical methods. No significant correlation was found between these two values in this region. Of the factors which cause heavy hail during a thunderstorm the contribution of the speed of horizontal wind in altitudes amounts to less than 10%.
    Abstract: Résumé D'aprèsH. Dessens [1], le seul élément qui puisse déclencher de fortes chutes de grêle à partir d'un orage est un très fort vent horizontal entre 6000 et 12000 m d'altitude. Les auteurs examinent par des méthodes statistiques dans quelle mesure l'apparition d'orages et de grêle dépend, au sud des Alpes, de la force et de la direction du vent en altitude. Il en découle que, dans cette région, la relation entre le vent en altitude d'une part, les orages et la grêle d'autre part est peu marquée. Dans l'ensemble des facteurs qui provoquent la transformation d'un orage commun en un orage fortement grêligène, la vitesse du vent horizontal en altitude ne représente qu'un poids inférieur à 10%.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Der einzige Faktor, der nachH. Dessens [1] Gewitter zu schweren Hagelgewittern werden läßt, ist ein sehr starker Horizontalwind in Höhen zwischen 6000 und 12000 m. Mit Hilfe statistischer Methoden wird untersucht, wie am Alpensüdfuß das Auftreten von Gewittern und Hagel vom Betrag und von der Richtung der Geschwindigkeit des Höhenwindes abhängt. Es stellt sich dabei heraus, daß hier der Zusammenhang zwischen diesen beiden Größen wenig ausgeprägt ist. Von der Gesamtheit der Faktoren, die bewirken, daß ein Gewitter zu einem schweren Hagelgewitter wird, beträgt der Anteil der Geschwindigkeit des horizontalen Höhenwindes weniger als 10%.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 15 (1965), S. 26-31 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Summary The author derives the equations for a three-dimensional, nonaccelerated surface wind vector for the overflow over a mountain. He can show that it is not necessary to make the assumption of a stationary isentropic flow. By means of an approximation term the surface friction is also taken into consideration.
    Abstract: Résumé Dans ce mémoire, on établit un vecteur à trois dimensions dépourvu d'accélération; ce vecteur doit représenter un vent soufflant au sol par dessus une chaîne de montagnes. On démontre alors qu'il n'est pas nécessaire de faire intervenir l'hypothèse d'un courant isentrope stationnaire. On tient enfin compte du frottement au sol et cela par approximation.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Es wird ein beschleunigungsfreier dreidimensionaler Windvektor an der Erdoberfläche bei Überströmung eines Gebirges abgeleitet. Dabei wird gezeigt, daß hierzu die Annahme einer stationären isentropen Strömung nicht notwendig ist. Weiters wird dann näherungsweise noch die Bodenreibung berücksichtigt.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 15 (1965), S. 1-25 
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    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Es wird der atmosphärische Ursprung der Ausfallprodukte, die einen plötzlichen Anstieg der Radioaktivität in Bodennähe verursachten, untersucht. Da alle Radioaktivitätsmessungen zeigten, daß das mittlere Alter der Ausfallprodukte in der Meßreihe größer als 100 Tage war, wird geschlossen, daß, im Hinblick auf eine angenommene mittlere Aufenthaltszeit der Ausfallprodukte in der Troposphäre von einem Monat, die Luft nicht lange vorher aus der Stratosphäre zugeströmt sein kann. Die Trajektorien der Schicht, die den plötzlichen Anstieg der Konzentration der Ausfallprodukte verursachte, wurden isentropisch vom Punkt des Anstiegs der Radioaktivität an zurückverfolgt. Die berechnete Trajektorie entspringt in der Region, die gewöhnlich als „Jet Stream Front” bezeichnet wird. Die Betrachtung der potentiellen Vorticity zeigt, daß die Luft eindeutig stratosphärischen Ursprungs war. Die absinkende Bewegung ist mit einer Zyklogenese in hohen Schichten in Verbindung, sie tritt an der Rückseite dieser Höhenzyklone auf. Bei Betrachtung auf einer Isobarenfläche scheint es, daß die Luft die Jetachse kreuzt; bei isentroper Betrachtung jedoch sieht man, daß die Trajektorie unter dem Jetkern „durchschlüpft” wobei keine größeren seitlichen Scherungen zu beobachten sind.
    Abstract: Résumé On recherche l'origine atmosphérique des résidus provoquant un accroissement brusque de la radioactivité au voisinage du sol. Comme toutes les mesures de la radioactivité ont montré que l'âge moyen des produits résiduels des différentes séries de mesure dépassait toujours 100 jours, on en conclut que, en admettant que ces particules se maintiennent en moyenne 1 mois dans la trophosphère, l'air ne parvient pas longtemps auparavant de la stratosphère. On a recherché la trajectoire inverse des masses d'air provoquant un accroissement subit de la retombée radioactive. Pour ce faire, on est parti du point où la dite recrudescence avait été constatée et, par des méthodes isentropiques, on a reconstitué la trajectoire présumée des produits résiduels. Les trajectoires ainsi calculées prennent naissance dans la région dénommée ordinairement „Jet Stream Front”. L'examen de la „vorticity” potentielle a montré que l'air a une origine stratosphérique indéniable. Le mouvement subsident est lié à une cyclogénèse à très haute altitude et se produit à l'arrière de la dite dépression. En considérant une surface isobarique, il semble que l'air traverse l'axe du courant. En considérant les choses de manière isentropique, on constate cependant que la trajectoire passe sous le noyau du courant de telle sorte qu'il n'y ait pas de cisaillement latérial appréciable.
    Notes: Abstract The atmospheric origin of the debris which produced a sudden increase of surface radioactivity is studied. Because all the radioactivity measurements show the mean debris ages to be greater than one hundred days for the entire sequence, the air is inferred to have been of recent stratospheric origin in view of an assumed mean tropospheric debris residence time of one month. The trajectories of the layer which caused the sudden increase in debris concentration were traced isentropically backward from the point of the fallout increase. The computed trajectory is seen to originate in the region traditionally considered to be the “jet stream front” and is shown definitely to be stratospheric air through potential vorticity considerations. The sinking motion is associated with upper air cyclogenesis and takes place to the rear of this high level cyclone. The air appears to cross the jet axis as viewed on an isobaric surface; but viewed isentropically, the trajectory is seen to “slip under” the jet core in such manner that no appreciable lateral shears are observed.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 15 (1965), S. 118-128 
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 15 (1965), S. 129-167 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Description / Table of Contents: Zusammenfassung Die Theorie der Mondgezeiten in einer Atmosphäre mit zonalen Winden zeigt, daß der stärkste Einfluß vonvertikalen Windänderungen in mittleren Breiten herrührt. Wenn das zonale Windsystem aber genau antisymmetrisch zum Äquator ist, hat es keinen Einfluß; nur der Teil mit äquatorieller Symmetrie wirkt auf die Gezeiten. Es besteht die Möglichkeit, daß die beobachtete jahreszeitliche Schwankung der Mondgezeit durch jahres-zeitliche Schwankungen des zonalen Windsystems erklärt werden kann; aber für den Beweis würde man mehr Information über die zonalen Winde in der Südhemisphere brauchen, als bis jetzt vorhanden ist. Eine andere mögliche Erklärung der jahreszeitlichen Änderung der Mondgezeit, nämlich als eine Folge jahreszeitlicher Schwankungen der mittleren vertikalen Temperatur-verteilung für die ganze Erde, muß noch untersucht und mit den vorliegenden Resultaten verglichen werden.
    Abstract: Résumé La théorie des marées lunaires agissant sur une atmosphère ne présentant que des vents zonaux montre que la plus forte influence modificatrice se produit par des variations verticales du vent dans les latitudes moyennes. Cependant, lorsque le système des vents zonaux est exactement antisymétrique par rapport à l'équateur, il n'y a pas d'influence. Seules les parties symétriques à l'équateur ont une influence sur les marées lunaires. Il est possible que les variations saisonnières de la marée lunaire observées puissent être expliquées par des variations également saisonnières du système des vents zonaux. Pourtant, pour le prouver, on devrait disposer de plus d'informations que jusqu'ici sur les vents zonaux de l'hémisphère sud. Une autre explication possible des variations saisonnières des marées lunaires serait celle d'une conséquence des variations saisonnières de la répartition verticale de la température moyenne pour la terre entière. Cette hypothèse doit encore être étudiée et comparée aux résultats de la présente étude.
    Notes: Summary Lunar tidal oscillations of an atmosphere with zonal winds are discussed theoretically. The main effect comes from vertical wind shears of middle latitude zonal winds. If, however, the zonal wind system is strictly antisymmetric with respect to the equator, there is no effect of the wind system. It is the equator-symmetric component of zonal wind systems that plays an important role. The meridional temperature gradient has no pronounced influence. There is a possibility that the observed annual variations of the lunar tide can be interpreted as a result of seasonal variations of zonal wind systems. But the proof requires information about the zonal winds in the southern hemisphere which is not yet available. Another possibility, namely the interpretation of the seasonal variation as a result of annual variations of global mean vertical temperature profile remains to be investigated and compared to the present result.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 15 (1965), S. 205-226 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Description / Table of Contents: Summary The relation between the lunar phase and the occurrence of precipitation ≧10,0 mm per day per station in northern Germany is presented. The revealed connection is also significant if local and temporal auto-correlations caused by the nature of atmospheric processes are accounted for. Morphologically, the derived picture is well matching the results in other parts of the world. This suggests world-wide relationships, which are briefly discussed.
    Abstract: Résumé On montre ici la relation entre les phases de la lune et les chutes de pluie dépassant 10,0 mm par jour et pour station dans la région du nord de l'Allemagne. Ce rapport se situe au-dessus de la répartition normale, même si l'on tient compte des auto-corrélations dans le temps et dans l'espace, répercussions dues aux conditions météorologiques L'image ainsi obtenue s'apparente morphologiquement à des phénomènes observés ailleurs et laisse entrevoir des relations à l'échelle mondiale. Ces relations sont en outre brièvement discutées.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Es wird der Zusammenhang zwischen der Mondphase und dem Ereignis eines Niederschlages ≧10,0 mm pro Tag und Station für Norddeutschland dargestellt. Der Zusammenhang ist auch bei Berücksichtigung der wetterbedingten örtlichen und zeitlichen Autokorrelation überzufällig. Morphologisch ordnet sich das gewonnene Bild in Ergebnisse aus anderen Erdteilen ein und deutet weltweite Zusammenhänge an, die kurz diskutiert werden.
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    Meteorology and atmospheric physics 15 (1965), S. 192-204 
    ISSN: 1436-5065
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    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Description / Table of Contents: Summary After a short discussion of the theoretical background for the calculation of the spreading of the noxious pollutants of the air based on the laws of turbulent diffusion a formula is derived for the concentration of the immisison on the ground with help of the empirical relations between the dispersion measures and the distance from the source given byPasquill. In some examples the concentration field at the ground relative to the point of maximum immission is calculated, considering a fixed height of the funnel of 40 m and a quantity of noxious gases as usually found with average emittents. The figures show a strong modification of the concentration field by the meteorological situation according to whether the spreading type is stable, indifferent or unstable.
    Abstract: Résumé On discute tout d'abord brièvement les fondements théoriques permettant de calculer la propagation des pollutions atmosphériques; pour ce faire, on se base sur les lois de la diffusion turbulente. On en tire ensuite une formule de calcul de la concentration des immissions à l'aide des relations empiriques dePasquill, relations existant entre les quantités répandues et la distance de la source. On calcule au moyen d'une série d'exemples le champ des concentrations au sol par rapport au point de concentration maximum; pour ce faire, on admet und chemineé fixe de 40 mètres de hauteur et une quantité de gaz nocifs correspondant à une moyenne de polluants. Les figures montrent la forte modification que subit la répartition des concentrations selon les conditions météorologiques, en d'autres termes si l'on a affaire à un type de propagation stable, indifférent ou instable.
    Notes: Zusammenfassung Nach einer kurzen Diskussion der theoretischen Grundlagen für die Berechnung der Ausbreitung von schädlichen Beimengungen der Luft auf Grund der Gesetzmäßigkeiten der turbulenten Diffusion wird mit Hilfe der vonPasquill angegebenen empirischen Beziehungen zwischen Streuungsmaßen und Quelldistanz die Formel für die Immissionskonzentration am Boden abgeleitet. An Hand einer Reihe von Beispielen wird das Bodenkonzentrationsfeld relativ zu dem Punkt maximaler Immissionskonzentration berechnet, wobei eine feste Schornsteinhöhe von 40 m und eine für mittlere Emittenten zutreffende Auswurfmenge an schädlichen Gasen vorausgesetzt wird. Die Abbildungen zeigen die starke Modifikation des Konzentrationsfeldes durch die meteorologischen Verhältnisse, je nachdem, ob ein stabiler, indifferenter oder labiler Ausbreitungstyp vorliegt.
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    Papers in regional science 14 (1965), S. 147-173 
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    Papers in regional science 14 (1965), S. 175-181 
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    Papers in regional science 14 (1965), S. 183-196 
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    Papers in regional science 14 (1965), S. 197-202 
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    Papers in regional science 14 (1965), S. 203-204 
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    Papers in regional science 15 (1965), S. 29-44 
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    Papers in regional science 15 (1965), S. 7-25 
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    Papers in regional science 15 (1965), S. 57-85 
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    Papers in regional science 15 (1965), S. 45-56 
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    Papers in regional science 15 (1965), S. 87-115 
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    Papers in regional science 17 (1966), S. 105-125 
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    Papers in regional science 17 (1966), S. 65-94 
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    Notes: Summary There are three major criteria which determine whether or not an economic development program or any of its elements (such as a new plant) can make a positive contribution to the economic development and welfare of a city or region. These criteria, relating to income, public finance, and environmental quality, can be presented symbolically in terms of the model presented. The necessary conditions are: (1) $$\frac{{X_{H_{t - 1} } }}{{P_t }} 〉 \frac{{X_{H_{t - 1} } }}{{P_{t - 1} }},$$ (2) $$\frac{{G_t - T_t }}{{P_t }}〈 \frac{{G_{t - 1} - T_{t - 1} }}{{P_{t - 1} }}.$$ $$Q_t - C_t 〉 Q_{t - 1} - C_{t - 1} or Q_t - B_t 〉 Q_{t - 1} - B_{t - 1} .$$ Where:X H =regional personal incomes,G=regional government expenditures,T=regional government revenues,P=regional population,Q=environmental benefits,C=environmental costs,B=cost of environmental restoration, andt=time period. The values for these variables are determined after all of the direct, indirect, and induced effects have been worked out through the general equilibrium model for any proposed development program or project.
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    Papers in regional science 17 (1966), S. 129-141 
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    Papers in regional science 17 (1966), S. 143-159 
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    Papers in regional science 17 (1966), S. 163-178 
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    Papers in regional science 17 (1966), S. 195-204 
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    Notes: Conclusions The over-all conclusion of this paper is that the effec of delivery cost on the price policy of a monopolist depends systematically upon the shape of the demand curves of the consumers in his market area. In drawing the specific conclusions of propositions I–IV, we have used the simplifying assumptions of constant marginal production costs and identity of all consumer demand schedules. Our results are also dependent upon conditions that the convexity of the individual demand curve nowhere varies beyond well defined limits. Therefore, the results of our analysis are not as general as those which might be derived at the cost of a more involved analysis.
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    Papers in regional science 17 (1966), S. 205-224 
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    Papers in regional science 18 (1967), S. 87-90 
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    Papers in regional science 17 (1966), S. 179-194 
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    Notes: Conclusion With all this, what can be said about the future of land use information collection, storage, and retrieval by governmental agencies? One thing is clear: there is not now enough information to justify an immediate attempt to establish a central land use data collection system almost anywhere. On the other hand, there do appear to be advantages to be gained from the crossutilization of information among agencies. If enough agencies can be persuaded or motivated to take part, the result may be a net social saving in the cost of information or the provision of more and better information for the same cost. In the pattern of increasing demands by agencies for data that we may expect during the coming years, either of these would be desirable. Clearly, in the realm of analysis of government decisions about information collection we are data poor. We do not now have accurate data on the relative costs and effectiveness of collection of land use information by different units of government, even where they are collecting data along the same qualitative dimension. Little is known about the ways in which compatibility between differing information requirements may be brought about, or how changes in the scale of operations affect information costs. It may be that in fact the entire expenditure on information is so marginal as not to justify the cost of finding out. But if it is not, then the formalization in this paper may provide some first clues to what it is that we ought to be looking for.
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    Papers in regional science 18 (1967), S. 177-196 
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    Papers in regional science 18 (1967), S. 197-206 
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    Papers in regional science 18 (1967), S. 207-222 
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    Papers in regional science 18 (1967), S. 169-176 
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    Papers in regional science 18 (1967), S. 223-229 
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