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  • Other Sources  (18)
  • John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  (17)
  • München : Bayerisches Landesvermessungsamt
  • National Academy of Sciences
  • Springer Nature
  • Wien : Geolog. Bundesanst.
  • 2020-2022  (18)
  • 1
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    Extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean: Spatiotemporal characteristics and connection to large‐scale atmospheric flow patterns (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-01
    Description: The Mediterranean region is strongly affected by extreme precipitation events (EPEs), sometimes leading to severe negative impacts on society, economy, and the environment. Understanding such natural hazards and their drivers is essential to mitigate related risks. Here, EPEs over the Mediterranean between 1979 and 2019 are analysed, using ERA5, the latest reanalysis dataset from ECMWF. EPEs are determined based on the 99th percentile of their daily distribution (P99). The different EPE characteristics are assessed, based on seasonality and spatiotemporal dependencies. To better understand their connection to large‐scale atmospheric flow patterns, Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis and subsequent non‐hierarchical K‐means clustering are used to quantify the importance of weather regimes to EPE frequency. The analysis is performed for different variables, depicting atmospheric variability in the lower and middle troposphere. Results show a clear spatial division in EPE occurrence, with winter and autumn being the seasons of highest EPE frequency for the eastern and western Mediterranean, respectively. There is a high degree of temporal dependencies with 20% of the EPEs (median value based on all studied grid cells), occurring up to 1 week after a preceding P99 event at the same location. Local orography is a key modulator of the spatiotemporal connections and substantially enhances the probability of co‐occurrence of EPEs even for distant locations. The clustering clearly demonstrates the prevalence of distinct synoptic‐scale atmospheric conditions during the occurrence of EPEs for different locations within the region. Results indicate that clustering, based on a combination of sea level pressure (SLP) and geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500), can increase the conditional probability of EPEs by more than three (3) times (median value for all grid cells) from the nominal probability of 1% for the P99 EPEs. Such strong spatiotemporal dependencies and connections to large‐scale patterns can support extended‐range forecasts.
    Description: This study analyses the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation events over the Mediterranean, and their connection to large‐scale atmospheric flow patterns. It is shown that by conditioning the extremes based on the atmospheric variability in the low‐ and mid‐troposphere, their probability increases more than threefold, when using nine clusters to group all the synoptic daily patterns. This finding can support extended‐range forecasts, as for such lead times the NWP models are more skillful in predicting large‐scale patterns than localized extremes.
    Description: Marie Skłodowska‐Curie
    Description: European Union's Horizon 2020
    Keywords: 551.6 ; extreme precipitation ; large‐scale/circulation patterns ; Mediterranean ; weather regimes
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  • 2
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    Prioritizing reaches for restoration in a regulated Alpine river: Locally driven versus hydro‐morphologically based actions (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2021-06-27
    Description: We discuss the prioritization of river reaches to be selected for restoration measures under the constraints of financial resource limitation. We propose and apply a simple approach based on the quantification of major hydro‐morphological alterations and the critical comparison with locally proposed restoration actions. The available hydro‐morphological and ecological data for the approach do not go beyond the requirements posed by the implementation of the EU Water Framework and Floods Directives. We describe an example that refers to a heavily regulated Alpine river (Sarca River, NE Italy). The results indicate hydropower facilities as a key source of hydrological alteration, with sediment retention and grade control structures on lateral tributaries playing an additional relevant role in reducing sediment supply. The frequency and duration of sediment‐transporting floods have dramatically decreased, and the bed sediment composition has been markedly altered and become highly compacted. Habitat improvement has been achieved after the implementation of minimum environmental flows. The comparison between the results of the hydro‐morphological indicators and the locally proposed restoration actions highlights that reaches with lower degree of hydro‐morphological alterations do not coincide with the areas chosen for the locally planned actions, which often miss considerations of the relevant spatial scales. In a context of limited available financial resources and data compared to other flagship river restoration projects in the European Alps, the present work suggests viable options for the choice of target restoration reaches.
    Description: Consorzio dei Comuni BIM Sarca
    Description: Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (MIUR)
    Description: Rete di Riserve della Sarca
    Keywords: 333.91 ; ecological flows ; hydropower ; regulated rivers ; sediment transport
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  • 3
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    Extreme precipitation events over northern Italy. Part II: Dynamical precursors (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-20
    Description: The connection between weather extremes and Rossby wave packets (RWP) has been increasingly documented in recent years. RWP propagation and characteristics can modulate the midlatitude weather, setting the scene for temperature and precipitation extremes and controlling the geographical area affected. Several studies on extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in the Alpine area reported, as the main triggering factor, a meridionally elongated upper‐level trough as part of an incoming Rossby wave packet. In this work, we investigate a wide number of EPEs occurring between 1979 and 2015 in northern‐central Italy. The EPEs are subdivided into three categories (Cat1, Cat2, Cat3) according to thermodynamic conditions over the affected region. It is found that the three categories differ not only in terms of the local meteorological conditions, but also in terms of the evolution and properties of precursor RWPs. These differences cannot be solely explained by the apparent seasonality of the flow; therefore, the relevant physical processes in the RWP propagation of each case are further investigated. In particular, we show that RWPs associated with the strongest EPEs, namely the ones falling in Cat2, undergo a substantial amplification over the western North Atlantic due to anomalous ridge‐building 2 days before the event; arguably due to diabatic heating sources. This type of development induces a downstream trough which is highly effective in focusing water vapour transport toward the main orographic barriers of northern‐central Italy and favouring the occurrence of EPEs.
    Description: The EPEs are subdivided into three categories (Cat1, Cat2, Cat3) according to thermodynamic conditions over the affected region. The three categories not only differ locally but also in the evolution of precursor RWPs as visible in the composite Hovmöller plots. RWPs associated with the strongest EPEs, the ones falling in Cat2, undergo a substantial amplification over the west North Atlantic due to anomalous ridge‐building 2 days before the event. This type of development induces a downstream trough which is highly effective in focusing water vapour transport toward the Apennines and the Alps.
    Description: Ludwig‐Maximilians‐Universität München http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100005722
    Description: German Research Foundation (DFG)
    Description: Transregional Collaborative Research Centre
    Keywords: 551.6 ; atmospheric rivers ; extreme precipitation ; integrated water vapour transport ; large‐scale forcing ; potential vorticity ; Rossby wave packets
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  • 4
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    WRF‐based dynamical downscaling of ERA5 reanalysis data for High Mountain Asia: Towards a new version of the High Asia Refined analysis (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-03
    Description: The High Asia Refined analysis (HAR) is a regional atmospheric data set generated by dynamical downscaling of the Final operational global analysis (FNL) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It has been successfully and widely utilized. A new version (HAR v2) with longer temporal coverage and extended domains is currently under development. ERA5 reanalysis data is used as forcing data. This study aims to find the optimal set‐up for the production of the HAR v2 to provide similar or even better accuracy as the HAR. First, we conducted a sensitivity study, in which different cumulus, microphysics, planetary boundary layer, and land surface model schemes were compared and validated against in situ observations. The technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) method was applied to identify the best schemes. Snow depth in ERA5 is overestimated in High Mountain Asia (HMA) and causes a cold bias in the WRF output. Therefore, we used Japanese 55‐year Reanalysis (JRA‐55) to correct snow depth initialized from ERA5 based on the linear scaling approach. After applying the best schemes identified by the TOPSIS method and correcting the initial snow depth, the model performance improves. Finally, we applied the improved set‐up for the HAR v2 and computed a one‐year run for 2011. Compared to the HAR, the HAR v2 has a better representation of air temperature at 2 m. It produces slightly higher precipitation amounts, but the spatial distribution of seasonal mean precipitation is closer to observations.
    Description: German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Keywords: 551.5 ; cold bias ; dynamical downscaling ; ERA5 ; HAR ; High Mountain Asia ; snow depth ; WRF
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  • 5
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    Hydro Explorer: An interactive web app to investigate changes in runoff timing and runoff seasonality all over the world (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-27
    Description: Climatic changes and anthropogenic modifications of the river basin or river network have the potential to fundamentally alter river runoff. In the framework of this study, we aim to analyze and present historic changes in runoff timing and runoff seasonality observed at river gauges all over the world. In this regard, we develop the Hydro Explorer, an interactive web app, which enables the investigation of 〉7,000 daily resolution discharge time series from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC). The interactive nature of the developed web app allows for a quick comparison of gauges, regions, methods, and time frames. We illustrate the available analytical tools by investigating changes in runoff timing and runoff seasonality in the Rhine River Basin. Since we provide the source code of the application, existing analytical approaches can be modified, new methods added, and the tool framework can be re‐used to visualize other data sets.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: WOA Institution: UNIVERSITAET POTSDAM Blended DEAL: ProjektDEAL
    Keywords: 551.488 ; global runoff database ; interactive web app ; R Shiny ; runoff seasonality ; runoff timing
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  • 6
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    Unusual appearance of mother‐of‐pearl clouds above El Calafate, Argentina (50°21′S, 72°16′W) (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-29
    Description: Visual observations from the ground and from a glider soaring in the lowermost stratosphere revealed the existence of stratospheric mother‐of‐pearl clouds above El Calafate in the lee of the Andes on 11 September 2019. The appearance of these clouds is rather unusual considering the time – end of the austral winter – and the location at about 50°S, being far away from Antarctica. This paper presents the available observations and describes the overall meteorological situation that was related to the earliest sudden stratospheric warming recorded so far in the Southern Hemisphere. By using high‐resolution numerical simulations, we show evidence of mountain waves propagating up to the stratosphere that are responsible for generating the localised cold stratospheric temperature anomalies required for ice cloud formation. Snapshots of a mother‐of‐pearl cloud from the camera installed at the PERLAN 2 aircraft's tail wing. image
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: 551.5 ; Argentina ; ice cloud formation
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  • 7
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    A new approach to classification of 40 years of Antarctic sea ice concentration data (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-04
    Description: In this paper, we present a characterization of Antarctic sea ice based on the classification of annual sea ice concentration (SIC) data from 1979 to 2018. A clustering algorithm was applied to provide a climatological description of significant annual cycles of SIC and their spatial distribution around the Southern Ocean. Based on these classification results, we investigate the variability of SIC cycles on decadal and inter‐annual time scales. First, we discuss significant spatial shifts of SIC cycles during 1979–1998 and 1999–2018. In the Weddell Sea and in large parts of the Ross Sea, we observed higher SIC during the summer season, and an extension of sea ice cover in winter compared to the long‐term average. Second, we introduce the Climatological Sea Ice Anomaly Index (CSIAI), which is an annual measure for year‐round sea ice anomalies of the Southern Ocean and its regional sub‐sectors. By relating selected years of significant sea ice conditions (1981, 2007 and 2014) with atmospheric influences, we demonstrate that the CSIAI is very useful for assessing inter‐annular Antarctic SIC variability. Positive and negative sea ice anomalies can be qualitatively explained by atmospheric circulation anomalies in the years 1981 and 2007. However, in 2014, the year with the largest observed sea ice extent in our time series, we found that this positive sea ice anomaly was surprisingly not associated with a stationary and inter‐seasonally persistent pattern of circulation anomaly. This suggests that sub‐seasonal to seasonal circulation anomalies and ocean‐related processes favoured the formation of the sea ice maximum in 2014. With this study we provide additional information on the long‐term annual SIC variability around Antarctica. Furthermore, our classification approach and its results have potential for application in the evaluation of sea ice model results.
    Description: In this paper, we present a characterization of Antarctic sea ice based on the classification of annual sea ice concentration cycles in the period 1979 to 2018. Furthermore, we discuss spatial shifts between 1979–1998 and 1999–2018 and are able to explain significant annual sea ice anomalies by atmospheric circulation anomalies.
    Description: DLR Management Board: Young Investigator Group Leader Program. F.R. was funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: 551.31 ; passive microwave data ; sea ice climatology ; sea ice trends ; sea ice variability
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  • 8
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    Severe thunderstorms with large hail across Germany in June 2019 (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2021-04-21
    Description: From 10 to 12 June 2019, severe thunderstorms affected large parts of Germany. Hail larger than golf ball size caused considerable damage, especially in the Munich area where losses amount to EUR 1 billion. This event thus ranks among the ten most expensive hail events in Europe in the last 40 years. Atmospheric blocking in combination with a moist, unstably stratified air mass provided an excellent setting for the development of severe, hail‐producing thunderstorms across the country. image
    Description: German Research Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: 551.5 ; Germany ; thunderstorms ; hailstorm
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  • 9
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    Pre‐instrumental summer precipitation variability in northwestern Greece from a high‐elevation Pinus heldreichii network (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-04
    Description: The spatiotemporal variability of precipitation is of vital importance to Mediterranean ecology and economy, but pre‐instrumental changes are not well understood. Here, we present a millennial‐length June–July precipitation reconstruction derived from a network of 22 Pinus heldreichii high‐elevation sites in the Pindus Mountains of northwestern Greece. Tree‐ring width chronologies from these sites cohere exceptionally well over the past several hundred years (r1467–2015 = 0.64) revealing coherence at inter‐annual to centennial timescales across the network. The network mean calibrates significantly against instrumental June–July precipitation over the past 40 years (r1976–2015 = 0.71), even though no high‐elevation observational record is available representing the moist conditions at the treeline above 1,900 m a.s.l. For the final reconstruction, the instrumental target data are adjusted to provide realistic estimates of high‐elevation summer rainfall back to 729 CE. The reconstruction contains substantially more low‐frequency variability than other high‐resolution hydroclimate records from the eastern Mediterranean including extended dry periods from 1,350 to 1,379 CE (39 ± 4.5 mm) and 913 to 942 (40 ± 8.4 mm), and moist periods from 862 to 891 (86 ± 11 mm) and 1,522 to 1,551 (80 ± 3.5 mm), relative to the long‐term mean of 61 mm. The most recent 30‐year period from 1986 to 2015 is characterized by above average June–July precipitation (73 ± 2 mm). Low‐frequency changes in summer precipitation are likely related to variations in the position and persistence of storm tracks steering local depressions and causing extensive rainfall (or lack thereof) in high‐elevation environments of the Pindus Mountains.
    Description: Associated with a strengthening of circum‐global sub‐tropical high‐pressure belts, climate models unequivocally predict a decrease of Mediterranean precipitation, accompanied by an increase of extreme events in the upcoming decades. Long‐term desiccation will amplify evaporative demand challenging plant metabolism and foster an even greater need to irrigate Mediterranean crops. We place these recent hydroclimate dynamics into a long‐term context and explore the feasibility of reconstructing low‐frequency precipitation variability by employing a large network of high‐elevation Pinus heldreichii sites from northwestern Greece.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: 551.6 ; climate reconstruction ; Mediterranean ; Pindus Mountains ; pine ; tree‐rings ; Valia Calda
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  • 10
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    Grassland greening on the Mongolian Plateau despite higher grazing intensity (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2021-06-28
    Description: Changes in land management and climate alter vegetation dynamics, but the determinants of vegetation changes often remain elusive, especially in global drylands. Here we assess the determinants of grassland greenness on the Mongolian Plateau, one of the world's largest grassland biomes, which covers Mongolia and the province of Inner Mongolia in China. We use spatial panel regressions to quantify the impact of precipitation, temperature, radiation, and the intensity of livestock grazing on the normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI) during the growing seasons from 1982 to 2015 at the county level. The results suggest that the Mongolian Plateau experienced vegetation greening from 1982 to 2015. Precipitation and animal density were the most influential factors contributing to higher NDVI on the grasslands of Inner Mongolia and Mongolia. Our results highlight the dominant effect of climate variability, and especially of the precipitation variability, on the grassland greenness in Mongolian drylands. The findings challenge the common belief that higher grazing pressure is the key driver for land degradation. The analysis exemplifies how representative wall‐to‐wall results for large areas can be attained from exploring space–time data and adds empirical insights to the puzzling relationship between grazing intensity and vegetation growth in dryland areas.
    Description: European Union's Framework Programme for Research and Innovation ‐ Horizon 2020 (2014‐2020)
    Description: Alexander von Humboldt Foundation of Germany
    Keywords: 333.7 ; China ; climate change ; grassland ; livestock grazing ; NDVI ; spatial panel regression ; vegetation growth
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  • 11
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    Contextualizing land‐use and land‐cover change with local knowledge: A case study from Pokot Central, Kenya (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-16
    Description: Rural communities in the drylands of sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) derive their livelihoods primarily from their natural resource base. Unprecedented changes in these environments over the past few decades are likely to intensify in the future and land users need to develop sustainable adaptation strategies. This study aims to identify land‐use and land‐cover (LULC) changes and their drivers in a sub‐Saharan dryland, between 1986 and 2017, by integrating local knowledge and remote sensing. Local knowledge and environmental perception are used as the basis for defining LULC classes and for training and validation of change detection. This study detects significant LULC changes in 41% of the investigated area, and identifies bush encroachment into former pastures as the dominant LULC change with an increase of woodland by 39% and a decrease of grassland by 74%. This process is perceived as severe degradation by local respondents and is linked to changing management regimes and unreliable rainfall patterns. Deforestation and woodland thinning account for 44% of the detected changes, and can be traced back to increased habitation and farming, although the local community also identifies charcoal production as a driving factor. The integration of remote sensing and local knowledge provides a holistic view on LULC change in Pokot Central, Kenya and offers a solid base for site‐specific and actor‐centred management approaches necessary for sustainable pathways of drylands. Our results emphasize the need to include local actors in the development of adaptation strategies and management guidelines for drylands.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Heidelberg University, Graduiertenförderung
    Keywords: 631.37 ; Kenya ; LANDSAT ; land‐use and land‐cover change ; local knowledge ; Pokot Central ; remote sensing
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  • 12
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    Comprehensive evaluation of an improved large‐scale multi‐site weather generator for Germany (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2021-06-29
    Description: In this work, we present a comprehensive evaluation of a stochastic multi‐site, multi‐variate weather generator at the scale of entire Germany and parts of the neighbouring countries covering the major German river basins Elbe, Upper Danube, Rhine, Weser and Ems with a total area of approximately 580,000 km2. The regional weather generator, which is based on a first‐order multi‐variate auto‐regressive model, is setup using 53‐year long daily observational data at 528 locations. The performance is evaluated by investigating the ability of the weather generator to replicate various important statistical properties of the observed variables including precipitation occurrence and dry/wet transition probabilities, mean daily and extreme precipitation, multi‐day precipitation sums, spatial correlation structure, areal precipitation, mean daily and extreme temperature and solar radiation. We explore two marginal distributions for daily precipitation amount: mixed Gamma‐Generalized Pareto and extended Generalized Pareto. Furthermore, we introduce a new procedure to estimate the spatial correlation matrix and model mean daily temperature and solar radiation. The extensive evaluation reveals that the weather generator is greatly capable of capturing most of the crucial properties of the weather variables, particularly of extreme precipitation at individual locations. Some deficiencies are detected in capturing spatial precipitation correlation structure that leads to an overestimation of areal precipitation extremes. Further improvement of the spatial correlation structure is envisaged for future research. The mixed marginal model found to outperform the extended Generalized Pareto in our case. The use of power transformation in combination with normal distribution significantly improves the performance for non‐precipitation variables. The weather generator can be used to generate synthetic event footprints for large‐scale trans‐basin flood risk assessment.
    Description: The regional weather generator is greatly capable of capturing most of the crucial statistical properties of weather events. Hence, it can be used to generate synthetic event footprints for large‐scale trans‐basin flood risk assessment. However, due to its deficiency in capturing spatial precipitation correlation structure leading to an overestimation of areal precipitation extremes, further improvement is envisaged for future research.
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: 551.6 ; correlation ; extreme ; flood ; large‐scale ; multi‐variate ; weather generator
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  • 13
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    The regional MiKlip decadal prediction system for Europe: Hindcast skill for extremes and user‐oriented variables (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-03
    Description: Regional climate predictions for the next decade are gaining importance, as this period falls within the planning horizon of politics, economy, and society. The potential predictability of climate indices or extremes at the regional scale is of particular interest. The German MiKlip project (“mid‐term climate forecast”) developed the first regional decadal prediction system for Europe at 0.44° resolution, based on the regional model COSMO‐CLM using global MPI‐ESM simulations as boundary conditions. We analyse the skill of this regional system focussing on extremes and user‐oriented variables. The considered quantities are related to temperature extremes, heavy precipitation, wind impacts, and the agronomy sector. Variables related to temperature (e.g., frost days, heat wave days) show high predictive skill (anomaly correlation up to 0.9) with very little dependence on lead‐time, and the skill patterns are spatially robust. The skill patterns for precipitation‐related variables (e.g., heavy precipitation days) and wind‐based indices (like storm days) are less skilful and more heterogeneous, particularly for the latter. Quantities related to the agronomy sector (e.g., growing degree days) show high predictive skill, comparable to temperature. Overall, we provide evidence that decadal predictive skill can be generally found at the regional scale also for extremes and user‐oriented variables, demonstrating how the utility of decadal predictions can be substantially enhanced. This is a very promising first step towards impact‐related modelling at the regional scale and the development of individual user‐oriented products for stakeholders.
    Description: The skill of the regional MiKlip decadal prediction system is analysed focussing on extremes and user‐oriented variables. Variables related to temperature extremes and the agronomy sector show high predictive skill with very little dependence on lead‐time. Skill patterns for precipitation‐related variables and wind‐based indices are less skilful and more heterogeneous, especially for the latter.
    Description: The study was mainly funded by the Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (BMBF) under project FONA MiKlip‐II http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: AXA Research Fund http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001961
    Keywords: 551.6 ; climate services ; Europe ; extremes ; MiKlip ; regional decadal predictions ; user needs
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  • 14
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    Assessing land use and flood management impacts on ecosystem services in a river landscape (Upper Danube, Germany) (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2021-06-28
    Description: Rivers and floodplains provide many regulating, provisioning and cultural ecosystem services (ES) such as flood risk regulation, crop production or recreation. Intensive use of resources such as hydropower production, construction of detention basins and intensive agriculture substantially change ecosystems and may affect their capacity to provide ES. Legal frameworks such as the European Water Framework Directive, Bird and Habitats Directive and Floods Directive already address various uses and interests. However, management is still sectoral and often potential synergies or trade‐offs between sectors are not considered. The ES concept could support a joint and holistic evaluation of impacts and proactively suggest advantageous options. The river ecosystem service index (RESI) method evaluates the capacity of floodplains to provide ES by using a standardized five‐point scale for 1 km‐floodplain segments based on available spatial data. This scaling allows consistent scoring of all ES and their integration into a single index. The aim of this article is to assess ES impacts of different flood prevention scenarios on a 75 km section of the Danube river corridor in Germany. The RESI method was applied to evaluate scenario effects on 13 ES with the standardized five‐point scale. Synergies and trade‐offs were identified as well as ES bundles and dependencies on land use and connectivity. The ratio of actual and former floodplain has the strongest influence on the total ES provision: the higher the percentage and area of an active floodplain, the higher the sum of ES. The RESI method proved useful to support decision‐making in regional planning.
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Keywords: 333.91 ; assessment ; cultural ; floodplains ; index ; inter‐sectoral management ; regulating and provisioning ecosystem services ; stakeholders
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  • 15
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    Nonstationarity of the link between the Tropics and the summer East Atlantic pattern (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2021-07-03
    Description: A 700‐year pre‐industrial control run with the MPI‐ESM‐LR model is used to investigate the link between the summer East Atlantic (SEA) pattern and the Pacific‐Caribbean rainfall dipole (PCD), a link that has previously been shown using ERA‐Interim reanalysis data. In the model, it is found that the link between the SEA and PCD is present in some multidecadal epochs but not in others. A simple statistical model reproduces this behaviour. In the statistical model, the SEA is represented by a white noise process plus a weak influence from the PCD based on the full 700 years of the model run. The statistical model is relevant to other extratropical modes of variability, for example, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), that are weakly influenced by the Tropics. It follows that the link between the Tropics and the winter NAO is likely to undergo modulation on multidecadal time scales, as found in some previous studies. The results suggest that any predictability of the SEA, and by implication the NAO, based on tropical rainfall may not be robust and may, in fact, be modulated on multidecadal time scales, with implications for seasonal and decadal prediction systems.
    Description: The positive phase of the SEA is associated with warm summers in Europe. The figure shows the running correlation in 51 year windows between the SEA index and the corresponding tropical rainfall index in a long pre‐industrial model run. The link between tropical rainfall and the SEA exists only in some decadal epochs, shown by the green shading, implying that predictability of the SEA based on tropical rainfall can be expected to vary on multidecadal time scales.
    Keywords: 551.5 ; nonstationarity ; seasonal prediction ; summer East Atlantic pattern
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  • 16
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    Convective rain cell characteristics and scaling in climate projections for Germany (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-07-03
    Description: Extreme convective precipitation is expected to increase with global warming. However, the rate of increase and the understanding of contributing processes remain highly uncertain. We investigated characteristics of convective rain cells like area, intensity, and lifetime as simulated by a convection‐permitting climate model in the area of Germany under historical (1976–2005) and future (end‐of‐century, RCP8.5 scenario) conditions. To this end, a tracking algorithm was applied to 5‐min precipitation output. While the number of convective cells is virtually similar under historical and future conditions, there are more intense and larger cells in the future. This yields an increase in hourly precipitation extremes, although mean precipitation decreases. The relative change in the frequency distributions of area, intensity, and precipitation sum per cell is highest for the most extreme percentiles, suggesting that extreme events intensify the most. Furthermore, we investigated the temperature and moisture scaling of cell characteristics. The temperature scaling drops off at high temperatures, with a shift in drop‐off towards higher temperatures in the future, allowing for higher peak values. In contrast, dew point temperature scaling shows consistent rates across the whole dew point range. Cell characteristics scale at varying rates, either below (mean intensity), at about (maximum intensity and area), or above (precipitation sum) the Clausius–Clapeyron rate. Thus, the widely investigated extreme precipitation scaling at fixed locations is a complex product of the scaling of different cell characteristics. The dew point scaling rates and absolute values of the scaling curves in historical and future conditions are closest for the highest percentiles. Therefore, near‐surface humidity provides a good predictor for the upper limit of for example, maximum intensity and total precipitation of individual convective cells. However, the frequency distribution of the number of cells depending on dew point temperature changes in the future, preventing statistical inference of extreme precipitation from near‐surface humidity.
    Description: We investigated characteristics of convective rain cells under historical and future conditions in convection‐permitting climate simulations using a tracking algorithm. There are more intense and larger cells in the future yielding an increase in hourly precipitation extremes. The temperature scaling curves of cell characteristics shift towards higher peak values at higher temperatures in the future. In contrast, cell characteristics scale consistently with dew point temperature. Therefore, near‐surface humidity provides a good predictor for the upper limit of for example, maximum intensity, and total precipitation of convective cells.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Clausius–Clapeyron scaling ; convection‐permitting simulation ; convective storms ; COSMO‐CLM ; precipitation ; tracking
    Type: article
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  • 17
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    Tillage erosion as an important driver of in‐field biomass patterns in an intensively used hummocky landscape (2021)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-10-06
    Description: Tillage erosion causes substantial soil redistribution that can exceed water erosion especially in hummocky landscapes under highly mechanized large field agriculture. Consequently, truncated soil profiles can be found on hill shoulders and top slopes, whereas colluvial material is accumulated at footslopes, in depressions, and along downslope field borders. We tested the hypothesis that soil erosion substantially affects in‐field patterns of the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) of different crop types on landscape scale. The interrelation between the EVI (RAPIDEYE satellite data; 5 m spatial resolution) as a proxy for crop biomass and modeled total soil erosion (tillage and water erosion modeled using SPEROS‐C) was analyzed for the Quillow catchment (size: 196 km2) in Northeast Germany in a wet versus normal year for four crop types (winter wheat, maize, winter rapeseed, winter barley). Our findings clearly indicate that eroded areas had the lowest EVI values, while the highest EVI values were found in depositional areas. The differences in the EVI between erosional and depositional sites are more pronounced in the analyzed normal year. The net effect of total erosion on the EVI compared to areas without pronounced erosion or deposition ranged from −10.2% for maize in the normal year to +3.7% for winter barley in the wet year. Tillage erosion has been identified as an important driver of soil degradation affecting in‐field crop biomass patterns in a hummocky ground moraine landscape. While soil erosion estimates are to be made, more attention should be given toward tillage erosion.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: 631.4 ; agroscapelab Quillow ; crop biomass patterns ; EVI ; remote sensing ; tillage erosion
    Type: map
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  • 18
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    Trans-European Suture Zone (2020)
    Springer Nature
    In:  In: Encyclopedia of Solid Earth Geophysics. , ed. by Gupta, H. Encyclopedia of Earth Sciences Series . Springer Nature, Cham, Switzerland, , 11 pp. ISBN 978-3-030-10475-7
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-10
    Description: The Trans-European Suture Zone (TESZ) is the transition zone from the Precambrian East European Craton in the north and east to the younger Phanerozoic mobile belts to the south and west. It is the most prominent lithospheric tectonic feature of Europe. The term Trans-European Suture Zone was only adapted around year 2000 during the Pan-European EUROPROBE program of the European Science Foundation. Until then, parts of the zone were termed Teisseyre-Tornquist Zone, Sorgenfrei-Tornquist Zone, Trans-European Fault, and Tornquist Fan.
    Type: Book chapter , NonPeerReviewed
    Format: text
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