ALBERT

Beschreibung: We compare differences and similarities in the annual stratospheric HNO3 cycle derived from ground‐based measurements at the South Pole during 1993 and 1995, after correcting an error in earlier published profile retrievals for 1993 which led to under estimation of mixing ratios. The data series presented here provide profiling over the range ∼16–48 km, and cover the fall‐winter‐spring cycle in the behavior of HNO3 in the extreme Antarctic with a large degree of temporal overlap. With the exception of one gap of 20 days, the combined data sets cover a full annual cycle. The record shows an increase in HNO3 above 30 km occurring about 20 days before sunset, which appears to be the result of higher altitude heterogeneous conversion of NOx as photolysis diminishes. Both years show a strong increase in HNO3 beginning about polar sunset, in a layer peaking at about 25 km, as additional NOx is heterogeneously converted to nitric acid. When temperatures drop to the polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation range near the end of May, gas phase HNO3 is rapidly reduced in the lower stratosphere, although at least 2–3 weeks of temperatures ≤192 K appear to be required to complete most of the gas‐phase removal at the upper end of the depletion range (22–25 km). Despite a significant difference in residual sulfate loading from the explosion of Mount Pinatubo, there appears to be little gross difference in the timing and effects of PSC formation in removing gas phase HNO3 in these 2 years, though removal may be more rapid in 1995. Incorporation of gas phase HNO3 into PSCs appears to be nearly complete up to ∼25 km by midwinter. We also see a repeat of the formation of gas phase HNO3 in the middle stratosphere in early midwinter of 1995 with about the same timing as in 1993, suggesting that this phenomenon is driven by a repetition of dynamical transport and appropriate temperatures and pressures in the polar night, and not (as has been suggested) by ion‐based heterogeneous chemistry that requires triggering by large relativistic electron fluxes. High‐altitude HNO3 production peaks during a period of ∼20 days, but appears to persist for up to ∼40 days in the 40–45 km range, ceasing well before sunrise. This HNO3 descends rapidly throughout the production period, at a rate in good agreement with theoretically determined midwinter subsidence rates. As noted in earlier studies, later warming of this region above PSC evaporation temperatures does not cause reappearance of large amounts of HNO3, indicating that most PSCs gravitationally sink out of the stratosphere before early spring. We present evidence that smaller PSCs do evaporate to ∼1 to 3.5 ppbv of HNO3 in the lower stratosphere, however, working downward from ∼25 km as temperatures rise during the late winter. There is a delay of ∼15 days after sunrise before photolysis causes significant depletion in the altitude range below ∼30 km, where subsidence has carried virtually all higher‐altitude HNO3 by polar sunrise. Some continued subsidence and photolysis combine to keep mixing ratios less than ∼5 ppbv below 30 km until the final breakdown of the vortex in November brings larger amounts of HNO3 with air from lower latitudes.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: 17739-17750

Beschreibung: 5A. Ricerche polari e paleoclima

Beschreibung: JCR Journal

Beschreibung: Seismic hazard modeling is a multidisciplinary science that aims to forecast earthquake occurrence and its resultant ground shaking. Such models consist of a probabilistic framework that quantifies uncertainty across a complex system; typically, this includes at least two model components developed from Earth science: seismic source and ground motion models. Although there is no scientific prescription for the forecast length, the most common probabilistic seismic hazard analyses consider forecasting windows of 30 to 50 years, which are typically an engineering demand for building code purposes. These types of analyses are the topic of this review paper. Although the core methods and assumptions of seismic hazard modeling have largely remained unchanged for more than 50 years, we review the most recent initiatives, which face the difficult task of meeting both the increasingly sophisticated demands of society and keeping pace with advances in scientific understanding. A need for more accurate and spatially precise hazard forecasting must be balanced with increased quantification of uncertainty and new challenges such as moving from time‐independent hazard to forecasts that are time dependent and specific to the time period of interest. Meeting these challenges requires the development of science‐driven models, which integrate all information available, the adoption of proper mathematical frameworks to quantify the different types of uncertainties in the hazard model, and the development of a proper testing phase of the model to quantify its consistency and skill. We review the state of the art of the National Seismic Hazard Modeling and how the most innovative approaches try to address future challenges.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: e2019RG000653

Beschreibung: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto

Beschreibung: JCR Journal

Beschreibung: An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright (2016) American Geophysical Union.

Beschreibung: The accuracy of earthquake locations and their correspondence with subsurface geology depends strongly on the accuracy of the available seismic velocity model. Most modern methods to construct a velocity model for earthquake location are based on the inversion of passive source seismological data. Another approach is the integration of high-resolution geological and geophysical data to construct deterministic velocity models in which earthquake locations can be directly correlated to the geological structures. Such models have to be kinematically consistent with independent seismological data in order to provide precise hypocenter solutions. We present the Altotiberina (AT) seismic model, a three-dimensional velocity model for the Upper Tiber Valley region (Northern Apennines, Italy), constructed by combining 300 km of seismic reflection profiles, 6 deep boreholes (down to 5 km depth), detailed data from geological surveys and direct measurements of P- and S-wave velocities performed in situ and in laboratory. We assess the robustness of the AT seismic model by locating 11,713 earthquakes with a non-linear, global-search inversion method and comparing the probabilistic hypocenter solutions to those calculated in three previously published velocity models, constructed by inverting passive seismological data only. Our results demonstrate that the AT seismic model is able to provide higher-quality hypocenter locations than the previous velocity models. Earthquake locations are consistent with the subsurface geological structures and show a high degree of spatial correlation with specific lithostratigraphic units, suggesting a lithological control on the seismic activity evolution.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: 8113-8135

Beschreibung: 4T. Sismicità dell'Italia

Beschreibung: JCR Journal

Beschreibung: [1] We present the first intercomparison between the two most comprehensive records of gas‐phase HNO3 profiles in the Antarctic stratosphere, covering the greater part of 1993 and 1995. We compare measurements by the Stony Brook Ground‐Based Millimeter‐wave Spectrometer (GBMS) at the South Pole with Version 5 HNO3 data from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite. Trajectory tracing was used to select MLS measurements in the 70°–80°S latitude band that sampled air observed by the GBMS during passage over the Pole. When temperatures were near the HNO3 condensation range, additional screening was performed to select MLS measurements that sampled air parcels within 1.5 K of the temperature they experienced over the Pole. Quantitative comparisons are given at 7 different potential temperature levels spanning the range ∼19–30 km. Agreement between the data sets is quite good between 465 and 655 K (∼20–25 km) during a large fraction of the year. Agreement is best during winter and spring, when seasonally averaged differences are generally within 1 ppbv below ∼25 km. At higher altitudes, and during summer and fall, the agreement becomes worse, and GBMS measurements can exceed MLS values by more than 3 ppbv. We provide evidence that differences occurring in the lower stratosphere during fall are due to lack of colocation between the two data sets during a period of strong poleward gradients in HNO3. Remaining discrepancies between GBMS and MLS V5 HNO3 measurements are thought to be due to instrumental or retrieval biases.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: id 4809

Beschreibung: 5A. Ricerche polari e paleoclima

Beschreibung: JCR Journal

Beschreibung: Producing probabilistic subseasonal forecasts of extreme events up to six weeks in advance is crucial for many economic sectors. In agribusiness, this time scale is particularly critical because it allows for mitigation strategies to be adopted for counteracting weather hazards and taking advantage of opportunities. For example, spring frosts are detrimental for many nut trees, resulting in dramatic losses at harvest time. To explore subseasonal forecast quality in boreal spring, identified as one of the most sensitive times of the year by agribusiness end users, we build a multisystem ensemble using four models involved in the Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction project (S2S). Two-meter temperature forecasts are used to analyze cold spell predictions in the coastal Black Sea region, an area that is a global leader in the production of hazelnuts. When analyzed at the global scale, the multisystem ensemble probabilistic forecasts for near-surface temperature are better than climatological values for several regions, especially the tropics, even many weeks in advance; however, in the coastal Black Sea, skill is low after the second forecast week. When cold spells are predicted instead of near-surface temperatures, skill improves for the region, and the forecasts prove to contain potentially useful information to stakeholders willing to put mitigation plans into effect. Using a cost–loss model approach for the first time in this context, we show that there is added value of having such a forecast system instead of a business-as-usual strategy, not only for predictions released 1–2 weeks ahead of the extreme event, but also at longer lead times.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: 237–254

Beschreibung: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Beschreibung: JCR Journal

Beschreibung: Mineral dust plays an important role in the atmospheric radiation budget as well as in the ocean carbon cycle through fertilization and by ballasting of settling organic matter. However, observational records of open‐ocean dust deposition are sparse. Here, we present the spatial and temporal evolution of Saharan dust deposition over 2 years from marine sediment traps across the North Atlantic, directly below the core of the Saharan dust plume, with highest dust fluxes observed in summer. We combined the observed deposition fluxes with model simulations and satellite observations and argue that dust deposition in the Atlantic is predominantly controlled by summer rains. The dominant depositional pathway changes from wet deposition in summer to dry deposition in winter. Wet deposition has previously been suggested to increase the release of dust‐derived nutrients and their bioavailability, which may be a key contributor to surface‐ocean productivity in remote and oligotrophic parts of the oceans.

Beschreibung: The Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) is an important dynamic component contributing to the total mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet, as it reaches up to the central divide and drains 12% of the ice sheet. The ice stream geometry and surface velocities in the onset region of the NEGIS are not yet sufficiently well reproduced by ice sheet models. We present an assessment of the basal conditions of the onset region in a systematic analysis of airborne ultra-wideband radar data. Our data yield a new detailed model of ice-thickness distribution and basal topography in the upstream part of the ice stream. We observe a change from a smooth to a rougher bed where the ice stream widens from 10 to 60 km, and a distinct roughness anisotropy, indicating a preferred orientation of subglacial structures. The observation of off-nadir reflections that are symmetrical to the bed reflection in the radargrams suggests that these structures are elongated subglacial landforms, which in turn indicate potential streamlining of the bed. Together with basal water routing pathways, our observations hint to two different zones in this part of the NEGIS: an accelerating and smooth upstream region, which is collecting water, with reduced basal traction, and in the further downstream part, where the ice stream is slowing down and is widening, with a distribution of basal water towards the shear margins. Our findings support the hypothesis that the NEGIS is strongly interconnected to the subglacial water system in its onset region, but also to the subglacial substrate and morphology.

Beschreibung: Changes in ocean gateway configuration can induce basin‐scale rearrangements in ocean current characteristics. However, there is large uncertainty in the relative timing of the Oligocene/Miocene subsidence histories of the Greenland‐Scotland Ridge (GSR) and the Fram Strait (FS). By using a climate model, we investigate the temperature and salinity changes in response to the subsidence of these two key ocean gateways during early to middle Miocene. For a singular subsidence of the GSR, we detect warming and a salinity increase in the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean. As convection sites shift to the north of Iceland, North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) is formed at cooler temperatures. The associated deep ocean cooling and upwelling of deep waters to the Southern Ocean surface can cause a cooling in the southern high latitudes. These characteristic responses to the GSR deepening are independent of the FS being shallow or deep. An isolated subsidence of the FS gateway for a deep GSR shows less pronounced warming and salinity increase in the Nordic Seas. Arctic temperatures remain unaltered, but a stronger salinity increase is detected, which further increases the density of NADW. The increase in salinity enhances the contribution of NADW to the abyssal ocean at the expense of the colder southern source water component. These relative changes largely counteract each other and cause a negligible warming in the upwelling regions of the Southern Ocean.

Beschreibung: The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) is the world's largest current system connecting all three major basins of the global ocean. Our knowledge of glacial‐interglacial changes in ACC dynamics in the southeast Pacific is not well constrained and presently only based on reconstructions covering the last glacial cycle. Here we use a combination of mean sortable silt grain size of the terrigenous sediment fraction (10–63 μm, "Sortable Silt") and X‐ray fluorescence scanner‐derived Zr/Rb ratios as flow strength proxies to examine ACC variations at the Pacific entrance to the Drake Passage (DP) in the vicinity of the Subantarctic Front. Our results indicate that at the DP entrance, ACC strength varied by ~6–16% on glacial‐interglacial time scales, yielding higher current speeds during interglacial times and reduced current speeds during glacials. We provide evidence that previous observations of a reduction in DP throughflow during the last glacial period are part of a consistent pattern extending for at least the last 1.3 Ma. The orbital‐scale cyclicity follows well‐known global climate changes from prevailing ca. 41‐kyr cycles in the early part of the record (1.3 Ma to 850 ka; marine isotope stage 21) across the mid‐Pleistocene transition into the middle and late Pleistocene 100‐kyr world. A comparison to a bottom water flow record from the deep western boundary current off New Zealand (Ocean Drilling Program Site 1123) reveals anti‐phased changes between the two sites. The enhanced supply of deep water along the DP and into the Atlantic Ocean during interglacials corresponds to a weakened flow of the SW Pacific deep western boundary current.

Beschreibung: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 33(4), (2020): 1535-1545, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0547.1.

Beschreibung: In a transient warming scenario, the North Atlantic is influenced by a complex pattern of surface buoyancy flux changes that ultimately weaken the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here we study the AMOC response in the CMIP5 experiment, using the near-geostrophic balance of the AMOC on interannual time scales to identify the role of temperature and salinity changes in altering the circulation. The thermal wind relationship is used to quantify changes in the zonal density gradients that control the strength of the flow. At 40°N, where the overturning cell is at its strongest, weakening of the AMOC is largely driven by warming between 1000- and 2000-m depth along the western margin. Despite significant subpolar surface freshening, salinity changes are small in the deep branch of the circulation. This is likely due to the influence of anomalously salty water in the subpolar intermediate layers, which is carried northward from the subtropics in the upper limb of the AMOC. In the upper 1000 m at 40°N, salty anomalies due to increased evaporation largely cancel the buoyancy increase due to warming. Therefore, in CMIP5, temperature dynamics are responsible for AMOC weakening, while freshwater forcing instead acts to strengthen the circulation in the net. These results indicate that past modeling studies of AMOC weakening, which rely on freshwater hosing in the subpolar gyre, may not be directly applicable to a more complex warming scenario.

Beschreibung: We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table 1 of this paper) for producing and making available their model output. We also thank John Marshall for helpful discussions on the driving mechanisms of the AMOC, and three anonymous reviewers whose comments greatly improved the manuscript. This work was supported by NASA Headquarters under the NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship Program Award 80NSSC17K0372, and by National Science Foundation Award OCE-1433132.

Beschreibung: 2020-07-20

Beschreibung: Methane emissions from northern high latitude wetlands constitute a major uncertainty in the atmospheric methane (CH4) budget during the Holocene. To reconstruct northern wetland methane emissions, we used an empirical model based on syntheses of observations of peat initiation from more than 3600 radiocarbon-dated basal peat ages, plant-macrofossil-derived peatland type from more than 250 peat cores from sites across the northern high latitudes, and observed CH4 emissions averaged from modern-day wetland types in order to explore the effects of wetland expansion and changes in wetland type. Peatland basal ages and plant macrofossil records showed the widespread formation of fens in major northern wetland complexes before 8000 BP. After 8000 BP, new fen formation continued, but widespread peatland succession (to bogs) and permafrost aggradation also occurred. Reconstructed CH4 emissions from peatlands increased rapidly between 10,600 BP and 6900 BP due to fen formation and expansion, then stabilized after 5000 BP at 42 ± 25 Tg CH4 y-1, as high methane-emitting fens transitioned to lower methane-emitting bogs and permafrost peatlands. Permafrost formation in northern peatlands after 1000 BP decreased CH4 emissions by 20% to 34 ± 21 Tg y-1 by the present day. Warming temperatures, changes in peatland hydrology, and permafrost thaw will likely change the magnitude of northern peatland emissions in the future.

Beschreibung: Infrastructure and anthropogenic impacts are expanding across the Arctic. A consistent record of human impact is required in order to quantify the changes and to assess climate change impacts on the communities. We derived a first panarctic satellite-based record of expanding infrastructure and anthropogenic impacts along all permafrost affected coasts (100 km buffer) within the H2020 project Nunataryuk based on Sentinel-1/2 satellite imagery. C-band synthetic aperture radar and multi-spectral information is combined through a machine learning framework. Depending on region, we identified up to 50% more information (human presence) than in OpenStreetMap. The combination with satellite records on vegetation change (specifically NDVI from Landsat since 2000) allowed quantification of recent expansion of infrastructure. Most of the expanded human presence occurred in Russia related predominantly to oil/gas industry. The majority of areas with human presence will be subject to thaw by mid-21st century based on ground temperature trends derived from the ESA CCI+ Permafrost time series (1997-2019). Of specific concern in this context are also settlements located directly at permafrost affected coasts. An efficient erosion rate monitoring scheme needs to be developed and combined with settlement records in order to assess the risk for local communities and infrastructure. Relevant progress in the framework of the ESA EO4PAC project will be discussed.

Beschreibung: Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS) are typical landforms indicating processes of rapid thawing and degrading permafrost. Their abundance is increasing in many regions and quantifying their dynamics is of high importance for assessing geomorphic, hydrologic, and biogeochemical impacts of climate change in the Arctic. Here we present a deep-learning (DL) based semantic segmentation framework to detect RTS, using high-resolution multi-spectral PlanetScope, topographic (ArcticDEM elevation and slope), and medium-resolution multi-temporal Landsat Trend data. We created a highly automated processing pipeline, which is designed to allow reproducible results and to be flexible for multiple input data types. The processing workflow is based on the pytorch deep-learning framework and includes a variety of different segmentation architectures (UNet, UNet++, DeepLabV3), backbones and includes common data transformation techniques such as augmentation or normalization. We tested (training, validation) our DL based model in six different regions of 100 to 300 km² size across Canada, and Siberia. We performed a regional cross-validation (5 regions training, 1 region validation) to test the spatial robustness and transferability of the algorithm. Furthermore, we tested different architectures, backbones and loss-functions to identify the best performing and most robust parameter sets. For training the models we created a database of manually digitized and validated RTS polygons. The resulting model performance varied strongly between different regions with maximum Intersection over Union (IoU) scores between 0.15 and 0.58. The strong regional variation emphasizes the need for sufficiently large training data, which is representative of the diversity of RTS types. However, the creation of good training data proved to be challenging due to the fuzzy definition and delineation of RTS. We are further continuing to improve the usability and the functionality to add further datasets and classes. We will show first results from the upscaling beyond small test areas towards large spatial clusters of extensive RTS presence e.g. Peel Plateau in NW Canada.

Beschreibung: With the Earth’s climate rapidly warming, the Arctic represents one of the most vulnerable regions to environmental change. These northern high latitude regions experience intensified fire seasons and especially tundra fires are projected to become more frequent and severe. Fires in permafrost regions have extensive impacts, including the initiation of thermokarst (rapid thaw of ice-rich ground), as they combust the upper organic soil layers which provide insulation to the permafrost below. Rapid permafrost thaw is, thus, often observable in fire scars in the first years post-disturbance. In polygonal ice-wedge landscapes, this becomes most prevalent through melting ice wedges and degrading troughs. The further these ice wedges degrade, the more troughs will likely connect and build an extensive hydrological network with changing patterns and degrees of connectivity that influences hydrology and runoff. While subsiding troughs over melting ice wedges may host new ponds, an increasing connectivity may also subsequently lead to more drainage of ponds, which in turn can limit further thaw and help stabilize the landscape. To quantify the changes in such dynamic landscapes over large regions, highly automated methods are needed that allow extracting information on the geomorphic state and changes over time of ice-wedge trough networks from remote sensing data. We developed a computer vision algorithm to automatically derive ice-wedge polygonal networks and the current microtopography of the degrading troughs from very high resolution, airborne laserscanning-based digital terrain models. We represent the networks as graphs (a concept from the computer sciences to describe complex networks) and apply methods from graph theory to describe and quantify hydrological network characteristics of the changing landscape. In fire scars, we especially observe rapidly growing networks and fast micromorphological change in those degrading troughs. In our study, we provide a space-for-time substitution comparing fire scars throughout the Alaskan tundra of up to 70 years since the fire disturbance, to show how this type of disturbed landscape evolves over time.

Beschreibung: Using our custom visualization tool for multitemporal Landsat satellite imagery we discovered, to our knowledge, an undocumented mega-landslide in far-east Siberia, which occurred in summer 2017 (https://bit.ly/2WYRLM1; 61.55°N; 170.01°E). To create and visualize this unique dataset, we processed temporal trends of multispectral indices of 〉100,000 Landsat images for a period from 2000-2019 using the freely available Google Earth Engine cloud processing platform (https://ingmarnitze.users.earthengine.app/view/hotspottcvisapp). The megaslide has a size of 3.66 km² and using the ArcticDEM data we estimate a volume movement of ~20 Mm³. With this size and volume, the landslide is among the largest globally known in recent decades. The landslide is accompanied by a smaller one (0.31 km², 1 Mm³) about 600 m further east, which already occurred in summer 2015. The large landslide caused the formation of several small lakes by blocking two valleys with debris and within newly formed crevasses near the hilltop, which are still persisting as of August 2021. As this event occurred in a remote valley far from any settlement, no visible damage to infrastructure or human livelihoods was detected. The remoteness has likely led to being not detected, like many similar, albeit a lot smaller, erosion features in the Arctic permafrost region. In this presentation we will show the main properties of the landslide, potential trigger mechanisms in the traditional sense. As this region is located along the fringes of permafrost presence we will discuss its potential connection to the rapidly warming climate in the high latitudes. Further, we will discuss how such a large event remained undetected for several years. We discuss and highlight the value of our landscape change visualization tool based on Landsat trend analysis (see Nitze et al., AGU 2020), which helped us to identify this extreme event. With more and more available data sources, this tool in addition to automated image analysis (e.g. deep-learning) or seismic analysis will help to uncover the hidden processes and dynamics of the Earth’s surface.

Beschreibung: Several decades of research have provided insight into patterns of and controls on thermokarst initiation and expansion, yet studies tend to focus on individual types of thermokarst (i.e., thaw lake formation and subsequent drainage) in particular regions. Today, we are left with uneven knowledge about abrupt permafrost thaw both conceptually and regionally. The goal of this presentation is to summarize recent advancements in monitoring thermokarst and its impact on soil, vegetation, and water while also framing a call to action for the next decade of research. Over the next decade, permafrost researchers must align their efforts on several fronts to not only increase our knowledge about changing permafrost but to align this knowledge with key community and policy needs. To support climate change planning and adaptation, northern communities need future thaw vulnerability mapped at scales relevant to their needs, which will require a suite of downscaled and new mapping and remote sensing products. Thermokarst predisposition maps based on circumpolar datasets greatly overestimate the area vulnerable to thermokarst, which can lead to poor planning and climate anxiety. In some situations, existing mapping products may be useful for downscaling with more detailed input data. In other situations, entirely new approaches may be required to support local action. A second key need for community relevant research is the ability to detect and monitor early warning indicators of thermokarst. Such information is needed to support scenario planning and to help mitigate the risks to social, cultural, and physical infrastructure created by permafrost change. We are evaluating the potential for using changes in vegetation, wetting/drying and topography as early warning indicators of thermokarst, all of which can be remotely sensed. Finally, integrating fine-scale disturbances such as thermokarst into large scale models remains a key challenge but critical for supporting sound climate policy. While a diversity of permafrost modeling approaches is necessary, we outline guiding principles that will help enhance model comparisons, assimilation of simulated data across spatiotemporal scales, and the ability for policy decisions to be rapidly informed by emerging science on permafrost change.

Beschreibung: Forest degradation may be as widespread as deforestation in the Amazon, but its impact on energy, carbon, and water fluxes is less well understood.

Beschreibung: This month’s issue of Eos shows how scientists can sometimes get a better look at something by stepping far—much, much farther—away.

Beschreibung: The Fujiwhara effect—complex interactions between large storms nearby each other—can steer hurricanes and tropical storms but doesn’t typically create colossal tempests.

Beschreibung: Air temperatures in coastal ecosystems of Australia routinely exceed the optimum range for photosynthesis, hindering plants’ ability to take up atmospheric carbon.

Beschreibung: A tool from dynamic systems theory is helping atmospheric scientists identify how dust and moisture mix over West Africa.

Beschreibung: A unique automated planetary boundary layer (PBL) retrieval algorithm is proposed as a common cross-platform method for use with commercially available ceilometers for implementation under the redesigned U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations program. This algorithm addresses instrument signal quality and screens for precipitation and cloud layers before the implementation of the retrieval methodology using the Haar wavelet covariance transform method. Layer attribution for the PBL height is supported with the use of continuation and time-tracking parameters, and uncertainties are calculated for individual PBL height retrievals. Commercial ceilometer retrievals are tested against radiosonde PBL height and cloud-base height during morning and late afternoon transition times, critical to air quality model prediction and when retrieval algorithms struggle to identify PBL heights. A total of 58 radiosonde profiles were used and retrievals for nocturnal stable layers, residual layers and mixing layers were assessed. Overall good agreement was found for all comparisons with one system showing limitations for the cases of nighttime surface stable layers and daytime mixing layer. It is recommended that nighttime shallow stable layer retrievals be performed with a recommended minimum height or with additional verification. Retrievals of residual layer heights and mixing layer comparisons revealed overall good correlations to radiosonde heights (correlation coefficients, r2, ranging from 0.89 – 0.96 and bias ranging from ~ -131 to +63 m, and r2 from 0.88 – 0.97 and bias from -119 to +101 m, respectively).

Beschreibung: No Abstract available.

Beschreibung: What Earth and space science stories are we recommending this week?

Beschreibung: A new survey reveals the unique issues that traveling for research poses for LGBTQ+ scientists. The data should help us create solutions that foster safety and inclusion.

Beschreibung: New instruments in the research tool kit bolster scientific understanding of the ecology of a greening Arctic.

Beschreibung: The dynamic origin of the interannual variability of West China autumn rainfall (WCAR), a special weather/climate phenomenon over western-central China in September and October, was investigated via observational diagnosis and numerical simulations. Here we found that the interannual variability of WCAR is closely related to the local horizontal trough, which is passively induced by two lower-level anticyclonic (high pressure) anomalies over East Asia. The anticyclonic anomaly over the south is a Gill-type response to the central and eastern Pacific diabatic cooling, while that over the north is part of the mid- to high-latitude barotropic Rossby wave train, which could be induced by either the thermal forcing of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) cooling or that of the subtropical northern Atlantic Ocean SST warming. The quasi-barotropic high pressure anomaly over East Asia acts as an “invisible mountain” that steers the low-level anomalous southwesterly into a southeasterly and hinders the water vapor going farther to the north, leading to enhanced WCAR. However, the real mountain ranges in the region (the Qinglin and Ba Mountains) have no essential impact on the formation and interannual variability of WCAR.

Beschreibung: Capsule Edward Kidson was a New Zealand scientist who spearheaded the modernisation of Australasian meteorology by introducing Bergen School methods of synoptic analysis to the Southern Hemisphere in the 1930s.

Beschreibung: Accurate simulation of planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) is key to greenhouse gas emission estimation, air quality prediction, and weather forecasting. This paper describes an extensive performance assessment of several Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model configurations in which novel observations from ceilometers, surface stations, and a flux tower were used to study their ability to reproduce the PBLH and the impact that the urban heat island (UHI) has on the modeled PBLHs in the greater Washington, D.C., area. In addition, CO2 measurements at two urban towers were compared with tracer transport simulations. The ensemble of models used four PBL parameterizations, two sources of initial and boundary conditions, and one configuration including the building energy parameterization urban canopy model. Results have shown low biases over the whole domain and period for wind speed, wind direction, and temperature, with no drastic differences between meteorological drivers. We find that PBLH errors are mostly positively correlated with sensible heat flux errors and that modeled positive UHI intensities are associated with deeper modeled PBLs over the urban areas. In addition, we find that modeled PBLHs are typically biased low during nighttime for most of the configurations with the exception of those using the MYNN parameterization, and these biases directly translate to tracer biases. Overall, the configurations using the MYNN scheme performed the best, reproducing the PBLH and CO2 molar fractions reasonably well during all hours and thus opening the door to future nighttime inverse modeling.

Beschreibung: Summer monsoon rainfall supplies over 55% of annual precipitation to global monsoon regions. As shown by more than 70% of models, including 30 models from CMIP5 and 30 models from CMIP6 under high-emission scenarios, North American (NAM) monsoon rainfall decreases in a warmer climate, in sharp contrast to the robust increase in Asian-African monsoon rainfall. A hierarchy of model experiments are analyzed to understand the mechanism for the reduced NAM monsoon rainfall in this study. Modeling evidence shows that the reduction of NAM monsoon rainfall is related to both direct radiative forcing of increased CO2 concentration and SST warming, manifested as fast and slow responses to abrupt CO2 quadrupling in CGCMs. A cyclone anomaly forms over the Eurasian-African continent due to enhanced land-sea thermal contrast under increased CO2 concentration, and this leads to a subsidence anomaly on its western flank, suppressing the NAM monsoon rainfall. The SST warming acts to further reduce the rainfall over the NAM monsoon region, and the El Niño-like SST warming pattern with enhanced SST warming over the equatorial Pacific plays a key role in suppressing NAM rainfall, whereas relative cooling over the subtropical North Atlantic has no contribution. A positive feedback between monsoon precipitation and atmospheric circulation helps to amplify the responses of monsoon rainfall.

Beschreibung: The assimilation of L-band surface brightness temperature (Tb) into the land surface model (LSM) component of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system is generally expected to improve the quality of summertime 2-m air temperature (T2m) forecasts during water-limited surface conditions. However, recent retrospective results from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggest that the assimilation of L-band Tb from the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission may, under certain circumstances, degrade the accuracy of growing-season 24-h T2m forecasts within the central United States. To diagnose the source of this degradation, we evaluate ECMWF soil moisture (SM) and evapotranspiration (ET) forecasts using both in situ and remote sensing resources. Results demonstrate that the assimilation of SMOS Tb broadly improves the ECMWF SM analysis in the central United States while simultaneously degrading the quality of 24-h ET forecasts. Based on a recently derived map of true global SM–ET coupling and a synthetic fraternal twin data assimilation experiment, we argue that the spatial and temporal characteristics of ECMWF SM analyses and ET forecast errors are consistent with the hypothesis that the ECMWF LSM overcouples SM and ET and, as a result, is unable to effectively convert an improved SM analysis into enhanced ET and T2m forecasts. We demonstrate that this overcoupling is likely linked to the systematic underestimation of root-zone soil water storage capacity by LSMs within the U.S. Corn Belt region.

Beschreibung: Recent advances in global ocean prediction systems are fostered by the needs of accurate representation of mesoscale processes. The day-by-day realistic representation of its variability is hampered by the scarcity of observations as well as the capability of assimilation systems to correct the ocean states at the same scale. This work extends a 3dvar system designed for oceanic applications, to cope with global eddy-resolving grid and dense observational datasets in a hybridly parallelized environment. The efficiency of the parallelization is assessed in term of both scalability and accuracy. The scalability is favoured by a weak-constrained formulation of the continuity requirement among the artificial boundaries implied by the domain decomposition. The formulation forces possible boundary discontinuities to be less than a prescribed error, and minimizes the parallel communication compared to standard methods. Theoretically, the exact solution is recovered by decreasing the boundary error towards zero. Practically, it is shown that the accuracy increases until a lower bound arises, due to the presence of the mesh and the finite accuracy of the minimizer. A twin experiment has been set up to estimate the benefit of employing an eddy-resolving grid within the assimilation step compared to an eddy-permitting one, while keeping the eddy-resolving grid within the forecast step. It is shown that the use of coarser grid for data assimilation does not allow an optimal exploitation of the present remote sensing observation network. A global decrease of about 15% in the error statistics is found when assimilating dense surface observations, while no significant improvement is seen for sparser observations (insitu profilers).

Beschreibung: Heat stress caused by high air temperature and high humidity is a serious health concern for urban residents. Mobile measurement of these two parameters can complement weather station observations because of its ability to capture data at fine spatial scales and in places where people live and work. In this paper, we describe a smart temperature and humidity sensor (Smart-T) for use on bicycles to characterize intracity variations in human thermal conditions. The sensor has several key characteristics of internet of things (IoT) technology, including lightweight, low cost, low power consumption, ability to communicate and geolocate the data (via the cyclist’s smartphone), and the potential to be deployed in large quantities. The sensor has a reproducibility of 0.03°–0.05°C for temperature and of 0.18%–0.33% for relative humidity (one standard deviation of variation among multiple units). The time constant with a complete radiation shelter and moving at a normal cycling speed is 9.7 and 18.5 s for temperature and humidity, respectively, corresponding to a spatial resolution of 40 and 70 m. Measurements were made with the sensor on street transects in Nanjing, China. Results show that increasing vegetation fraction causes reduction in both air temperature and absolute humidity and that increasing impervious surface fraction has the opposite effect.

Beschreibung: Buoy observations from a 1999 Gulf of Mexico field program (GOM99) are used to investigate the relationships among friction velocity u*, wind speed U, and amount of swell present. A U–u*sea parameterization is developed for the case of pure wind sea (denoted by u*sea), which is linear in U over the range of available winds (2–16 m s−1). The curve shows no sign of an inflection point near 7–8 m s−1 as suggested in a 2012 paper by Andreas et al. on the basis of a transition from smooth to rough flow. When observations containing more than minimal swell energy are included, a different U–u* equation for U 〈 8 m s−1 is found, which would intersect the pure wind-sea curve about 7–8 m s−1. These two relationships yield a bilinear curve similar to Andreas et al. with an apparent inflection near 7–8 m s−1. The absence of the inflection in the GOM99 experiment pure wind-sea curve and the similarity of the GOM99 swell-dominated low wind speed to Andreas et al.’s low wind speed relationship suggest that the inflection may be due to the effect of swell and not a flow transition. Swell heights in the range of only 25–50 cm may be sufficient to impact stress at low wind speeds.

Beschreibung: Concentrated poleward flows near the eastern boundaries between 2- and 4-km depth have been observed repeatedly, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. These deep eastern boundary currents (DEBCs) play an important role in setting the large-scale tracer distribution and have nonnegligible contribution to global transports of mass, heat, and tracers, but their dynamics are not well understood. In this paper, we first demonstrate the significant role of DEBCs in the southeastern Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans, using the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) data assimilating product, and using high-resolution regional general circulation model configurations. The vorticity balances of these DEBCs reveal that, over most of the width of such currents, they are in an interior-like vorticity budget, with the meridional advection of planetary vorticity βυ and vortex stretching fwz being the largest two terms, and with contributions of nonlinearity and friction that are of smaller spatial scale. The stretching is shown, using a temperature budget, to be largely forced by resolved or parameterized eddy temperature transport. Strongly decaying signals from the eastern boundary in friction and stretching form the dominant balance in a sublayer close to the eastern boundary. The temporal variability of DEBCs is then examined, to help to interpret observations that tend to be sporadic in both time and space. The probability distribution functions of northward velocity in DEBC regions are broad, implying that flow reversals are common. Although the regions of the simulated DEBCs are generally local minima of eddy kinetic energy, they are still constantly releasing westward-propagating Rossby waves.

Beschreibung: The intensity of the tropical cyclone has been introduced into the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast (DSAEF) for Landfalling Typhoon (or tropical cyclone) Precipitation (DSAEF_LTP) model. Moreover the accumulated precipitation prediction experiments have been conducted on 21 target tropical cyclones with daily precipitation ≥100 mm in South China from 2012 to 2016. The best forecasting scheme for the DSAEF_LTP model is identified, and the performance of the prediction is compared with three numerical weather prediction models (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the Global Forecast System and T639). The forecasting ability of the DSAEF_LTP model for heavy rainfall (accumulated precipitation ≥250 mm and ≥100 mm) improves when the intensity of the tropical cyclone is introduced, giving some advantages over the three numerical weather prediction models. The selection of analog tropical cyclones with a maximum intensity (during precipitation over land) equaling to or higher than the initial intensity of the target tropical cyclone gives better forecasts. The prediction accuracy for accumulated precipitation is higher for tropical cyclones with higher intensity and higher observed precipitation, with in both cases positive linear correlations with the threat score.