Publication Date:
2020-09-01
Description:
Seismic hazard modeling is a multidisciplinary science that aims to forecast earthquake
occurrence and its resultant ground shaking. Such models consist of a probabilistic framework that
quantifies uncertainty across a complex system; typically, this includes at least two model components
developed from Earth science: seismic source and ground motion models. Although there is no scientific
prescription for the forecast length, the most common probabilistic seismic hazard analyses consider
forecasting windows of 30 to 50 years, which are typically an engineering demand for building code
purposes. These types of analyses are the topic of this review paper. Although the core methods and
assumptions of seismic hazard modeling have largely remained unchanged for more than 50 years, we
review the most recent initiatives, which face the difficult task of meeting both the increasingly
sophisticated demands of society and keeping pace with advances in scientific understanding. A need for
more accurate and spatially precise hazard forecasting must be balanced with increased quantification
of uncertainty and new challenges such as moving from time‐independent hazard to forecasts that are
time dependent and specific to the time period of interest. Meeting these challenges requires the
development of science‐driven models, which integrate all information available, the adoption of proper
mathematical frameworks to quantify the different types of uncertainties in the hazard model, and the
development of a proper testing phase of the model to quantify its consistency and skill. We review the
state of the art of the National Seismic Hazard Modeling and how the most innovative approaches try to
address future challenges.
Description:
Published
Description:
e2019RG000653
Description:
6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
Description:
JCR Journal
Repository Name:
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Type:
article
