ALBERT

Description: A unique automated planetary boundary layer (PBL) retrieval algorithm is proposed as a common cross-platform method for use with commercially available ceilometers for implementation under the redesigned U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations program. This algorithm addresses instrument signal quality and screens for precipitation and cloud layers before the implementation of the retrieval methodology using the Haar wavelet covariance transform method. Layer attribution for the PBL height is supported with the use of continuation and time-tracking parameters, and uncertainties are calculated for individual PBL height retrievals. Commercial ceilometer retrievals are tested against radiosonde PBL height and cloud-base height during morning and late afternoon transition times, critical to air quality model prediction and when retrieval algorithms struggle to identify PBL heights. A total of 58 radiosonde profiles were used and retrievals for nocturnal stable layers, residual layers and mixing layers were assessed. Overall good agreement was found for all comparisons with one system showing limitations for the cases of nighttime surface stable layers and daytime mixing layer. It is recommended that nighttime shallow stable layer retrievals be performed with a recommended minimum height or with additional verification. Retrievals of residual layer heights and mixing layer comparisons revealed overall good correlations to radiosonde heights (correlation coefficients, r2, ranging from 0.89 – 0.96 and bias ranging from ~ -131 to +63 m, and r2 from 0.88 – 0.97 and bias from -119 to +101 m, respectively).

Description: No Abstract available.

Description: The dynamic origin of the interannual variability of West China autumn rainfall (WCAR), a special weather/climate phenomenon over western-central China in September and October, was investigated via observational diagnosis and numerical simulations. Here we found that the interannual variability of WCAR is closely related to the local horizontal trough, which is passively induced by two lower-level anticyclonic (high pressure) anomalies over East Asia. The anticyclonic anomaly over the south is a Gill-type response to the central and eastern Pacific diabatic cooling, while that over the north is part of the mid- to high-latitude barotropic Rossby wave train, which could be induced by either the thermal forcing of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) cooling or that of the subtropical northern Atlantic Ocean SST warming. The quasi-barotropic high pressure anomaly over East Asia acts as an “invisible mountain” that steers the low-level anomalous southwesterly into a southeasterly and hinders the water vapor going farther to the north, leading to enhanced WCAR. However, the real mountain ranges in the region (the Qinglin and Ba Mountains) have no essential impact on the formation and interannual variability of WCAR.

Description: Summer monsoon rainfall supplies over 55% of annual precipitation to global monsoon regions. As shown by more than 70% of models, including 30 models from CMIP5 and 30 models from CMIP6 under high-emission scenarios, North American (NAM) monsoon rainfall decreases in a warmer climate, in sharp contrast to the robust increase in Asian-African monsoon rainfall. A hierarchy of model experiments are analyzed to understand the mechanism for the reduced NAM monsoon rainfall in this study. Modeling evidence shows that the reduction of NAM monsoon rainfall is related to both direct radiative forcing of increased CO2 concentration and SST warming, manifested as fast and slow responses to abrupt CO2 quadrupling in CGCMs. A cyclone anomaly forms over the Eurasian-African continent due to enhanced land-sea thermal contrast under increased CO2 concentration, and this leads to a subsidence anomaly on its western flank, suppressing the NAM monsoon rainfall. The SST warming acts to further reduce the rainfall over the NAM monsoon region, and the El Niño-like SST warming pattern with enhanced SST warming over the equatorial Pacific plays a key role in suppressing NAM rainfall, whereas relative cooling over the subtropical North Atlantic has no contribution. A positive feedback between monsoon precipitation and atmospheric circulation helps to amplify the responses of monsoon rainfall.

Description: The assimilation of L-band surface brightness temperature (Tb) into the land surface model (LSM) component of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system is generally expected to improve the quality of summertime 2-m air temperature (T2m) forecasts during water-limited surface conditions. However, recent retrospective results from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggest that the assimilation of L-band Tb from the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission may, under certain circumstances, degrade the accuracy of growing-season 24-h T2m forecasts within the central United States. To diagnose the source of this degradation, we evaluate ECMWF soil moisture (SM) and evapotranspiration (ET) forecasts using both in situ and remote sensing resources. Results demonstrate that the assimilation of SMOS Tb broadly improves the ECMWF SM analysis in the central United States while simultaneously degrading the quality of 24-h ET forecasts. Based on a recently derived map of true global SM–ET coupling and a synthetic fraternal twin data assimilation experiment, we argue that the spatial and temporal characteristics of ECMWF SM analyses and ET forecast errors are consistent with the hypothesis that the ECMWF LSM overcouples SM and ET and, as a result, is unable to effectively convert an improved SM analysis into enhanced ET and T2m forecasts. We demonstrate that this overcoupling is likely linked to the systematic underestimation of root-zone soil water storage capacity by LSMs within the U.S. Corn Belt region.

Description: Recent advances in global ocean prediction systems are fostered by the needs of accurate representation of mesoscale processes. The day-by-day realistic representation of its variability is hampered by the scarcity of observations as well as the capability of assimilation systems to correct the ocean states at the same scale. This work extends a 3dvar system designed for oceanic applications, to cope with global eddy-resolving grid and dense observational datasets in a hybridly parallelized environment. The efficiency of the parallelization is assessed in term of both scalability and accuracy. The scalability is favoured by a weak-constrained formulation of the continuity requirement among the artificial boundaries implied by the domain decomposition. The formulation forces possible boundary discontinuities to be less than a prescribed error, and minimizes the parallel communication compared to standard methods. Theoretically, the exact solution is recovered by decreasing the boundary error towards zero. Practically, it is shown that the accuracy increases until a lower bound arises, due to the presence of the mesh and the finite accuracy of the minimizer. A twin experiment has been set up to estimate the benefit of employing an eddy-resolving grid within the assimilation step compared to an eddy-permitting one, while keeping the eddy-resolving grid within the forecast step. It is shown that the use of coarser grid for data assimilation does not allow an optimal exploitation of the present remote sensing observation network. A global decrease of about 15% in the error statistics is found when assimilating dense surface observations, while no significant improvement is seen for sparser observations (insitu profilers).

Description: Heat stress caused by high air temperature and high humidity is a serious health concern for urban residents. Mobile measurement of these two parameters can complement weather station observations because of its ability to capture data at fine spatial scales and in places where people live and work. In this paper, we describe a smart temperature and humidity sensor (Smart-T) for use on bicycles to characterize intracity variations in human thermal conditions. The sensor has several key characteristics of internet of things (IoT) technology, including lightweight, low cost, low power consumption, ability to communicate and geolocate the data (via the cyclist’s smartphone), and the potential to be deployed in large quantities. The sensor has a reproducibility of 0.03°–0.05°C for temperature and of 0.18%–0.33% for relative humidity (one standard deviation of variation among multiple units). The time constant with a complete radiation shelter and moving at a normal cycling speed is 9.7 and 18.5 s for temperature and humidity, respectively, corresponding to a spatial resolution of 40 and 70 m. Measurements were made with the sensor on street transects in Nanjing, China. Results show that increasing vegetation fraction causes reduction in both air temperature and absolute humidity and that increasing impervious surface fraction has the opposite effect.

Description: Buoy observations from a 1999 Gulf of Mexico field program (GOM99) are used to investigate the relationships among friction velocity u*, wind speed U, and amount of swell present. A U–u*sea parameterization is developed for the case of pure wind sea (denoted by u*sea), which is linear in U over the range of available winds (2–16 m s−1). The curve shows no sign of an inflection point near 7–8 m s−1 as suggested in a 2012 paper by Andreas et al. on the basis of a transition from smooth to rough flow. When observations containing more than minimal swell energy are included, a different U–u* equation for U 〈 8 m s−1 is found, which would intersect the pure wind-sea curve about 7–8 m s−1. These two relationships yield a bilinear curve similar to Andreas et al. with an apparent inflection near 7–8 m s−1. The absence of the inflection in the GOM99 experiment pure wind-sea curve and the similarity of the GOM99 swell-dominated low wind speed to Andreas et al.’s low wind speed relationship suggest that the inflection may be due to the effect of swell and not a flow transition. Swell heights in the range of only 25–50 cm may be sufficient to impact stress at low wind speeds.

Description: Concentrated poleward flows near the eastern boundaries between 2- and 4-km depth have been observed repeatedly, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. These deep eastern boundary currents (DEBCs) play an important role in setting the large-scale tracer distribution and have nonnegligible contribution to global transports of mass, heat, and tracers, but their dynamics are not well understood. In this paper, we first demonstrate the significant role of DEBCs in the southeastern Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific Oceans, using the Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE) data assimilating product, and using high-resolution regional general circulation model configurations. The vorticity balances of these DEBCs reveal that, over most of the width of such currents, they are in an interior-like vorticity budget, with the meridional advection of planetary vorticity βυ and vortex stretching fwz being the largest two terms, and with contributions of nonlinearity and friction that are of smaller spatial scale. The stretching is shown, using a temperature budget, to be largely forced by resolved or parameterized eddy temperature transport. Strongly decaying signals from the eastern boundary in friction and stretching form the dominant balance in a sublayer close to the eastern boundary. The temporal variability of DEBCs is then examined, to help to interpret observations that tend to be sporadic in both time and space. The probability distribution functions of northward velocity in DEBC regions are broad, implying that flow reversals are common. Although the regions of the simulated DEBCs are generally local minima of eddy kinetic energy, they are still constantly releasing westward-propagating Rossby waves.

Description: Global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have begun to resolve the mesoscale k−5/3 range of the energy spectrum, which is known to impose an inherently finite range of deterministic predictability per se as errors develop more rapidly on these scales than on the larger scales. However, the dynamics of these errors under the influence of the synoptic-scale k−3 range is little studied. Within a perfect-model context, the present work examines the error growth behavior under such a hybrid spectrum in Lorenz’s original model of 1969, and in a series of identical-twin perturbation experiments using an idealized two-dimensional barotropic turbulence model at a range of resolutions. With the typical resolution of today’s global NWP ensembles, error growth remains largely uniform across scales. The theoretically expected fast error growth characteristic of a k−5/3 spectrum is seen to be largely suppressed in the first decade of the mesoscale range by the synoptic-scale k−3 range. However, it emerges once models become fully able to resolve features on something like a 20-km scale, which corresponds to a grid resolution on the order of a few kilometers.

Description: Dust is the major aerosol type over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), and the TP plays an important role in forming the spring dust belt across the Northern Hemisphere in the upper troposphere. Estimated spring dust mass flux (DMF) showed a significant declining trend over the TP during 2007–19. The total spring DMF across the TP (TDMFTP) was mainly affected by DMFs over the Tarim Basin, while the spring DMF across the TP in the midtroposphere was also connected with DMFs over the northwest Indian Peninsula and central Asia. Interannual variability of spring TDMFTP was strongly correlated with the North Atlantic winter sea surface temperature (SST) tripole. A cold preceding winter induced by the North Atlantic winter SST tripole over midlatitude Eurasia promotes dust activities in the subsequent spring. The North Atlantic winter SST tripole anomalies persist into the subsequent spring and induce a corresponding atmosphere response. Enhanced atmospheric baroclinicity develops over northwest China and the northern Indian Peninsula during spring, which is attributed to surface thermal forcing induced by the positive winter SST tripole phase. A strong positive North Atlantic winter SST tripole anomaly strengthens the upper-level westerly jets, enhancing airflow toward the TP midtroposphere; together, these circulation patterns cause anomalous cyclonic conditions in the lower troposphere, especially over the Tarim Basin, via the eastward propagation of a Rossby wave train. These atmospheric circulation conditions are likely to increase the frequency of dust occurrence and promote the transport of dust onto the TP.

Description: The Kiremt rainy season is the foundation of agriculture in the Ethiopian Highlands and a key driver of economic development as well as the instigator of famines that have plagued the country’s history. Despite the importance of these rains, relatively little research exists on predicting the season’s onset; even less research evaluates statistical modeling approaches, in spite of their demonstrated utility for decision-making at local scales. To explore these methods, predictions are generated conditioned on three definitions of onset, at three lead times, using partial least squares (PLS) regression and random forest classification. Results illustrate moderate prediction skill and an ability to avoid false onsets, which may guide planting decisions; however, they are highly sensitive to how onset is defined, suggesting that future prediction approaches should additionally consider local agricultural definitions of onset.

Description: We formulate a new second-order closure turbulence model by employing a recent closure for the pressure–temperature correlation at the equation level. As a result, we obtain new heat flux equations that avoid the long-standing issue of a finite critical Richardson number. The new, structurally simpler model improves on the Mellor–Yamada and Galperin et al. models; a key feature includes enhanced mixing under stable conditions facilitating agreement with observational, experimental, and high-resolution numerical datasets. The model predicts a planetary boundary layer height deeper than predicted by models with low critical Richardson numbers, as demonstrated in single-column model runs of the GISS ModelE general circulation model.

Description: A novel approach to compare airborne observations of solar spectral irradiances measured above clouds with along-track radiative transfer simulations (RTS) is presented. The irradiance measurements were obtained with the Spectral Modular Airborne Radiation Measurement System (SMART) installed on the High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO). The RTS were conducted using the operational ecRad radiation scheme of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), operated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and a stand-alone radiative transfer solver, the library for Radiative transfer (libRadtran). Profiles of observed and simulated radar reflectivity were provided by the HALO Microwave Package (HAMP) and the Passive and Active Microwave Transfer Model (PAMTRA), respectively. The comparison aims to investigate the capability of the two models to reproduce the observed radiation field. By analyzing spectral irradiances above clouds, different ice cloud optical parameterizations in the models were evaluated. Simulated and observed radar reflectivity fields allowed the vertical representation of the clouds modeled by the IFS to be evaluated, and enabled errors in the IFS analysis data (IFS AD) and the observations to be separated. The investigation of a North Atlantic low pressure system showed that the RTS, in combination with the IFS AD, generally reproduced the observed radiation field. For heterogeneously distributed liquid water clouds, an underestimation of upward irradiance by up to 27% was found. Simulations of ice-topped clouds, using a specific ice optics parameterization, indicated a systematic underestimation of broadband cloud-top albedo, suggesting major deficiencies in the ice optics parameterization between 1242 and 1941 nm wavelength.

Description: Based on a priori analysis of large-eddy simulations (LESs) of the convective atmospheric boundary layer, improved turbulent mixing and dissipation length scales are proposed for a turbulence kinetic energy (TKE)-based planetary boundary layer (PBL) scheme. The turbulent mixing length incorporates surface similarity and TKE constraints in the surface layer, and makes adjustments for lateral entrainment effects in the mixed layer. The dissipation length is constructed based on balanced TKE budgets accounting for shear, buoyancy, and turbulent mixing. A nongradient term is added to the TKE flux to correct for nonlocal turbulent mixing of TKE. The improved length scales are implemented into a PBL scheme, and are tested with idealized single-column convective boundary layer (CBL) cases. Results exhibit robust applicability across a broad CBL stability range, and are in good agreement with LES benchmark simulations. It is then implemented into a community atmospheric model and further evaluated with 3D real-case simulations. Results of the new scheme are of comparable quality to three other well-established PBL schemes. Comparisons between simulated and radiosonde-observed profiles show favorable performance of the new scheme on a clear day.

Description: This study investigates the northward-propagating quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) in the western North Pacific by examining the composite meridional structures. Using newly released reanalysis and remote sensing data, the northward propagation is understood in terms of the meridional contrasts in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) moisture and the column-integrated moist static energy (MSE). The meridional contrast in the PBL moisture, with larger values north of the convection center, is predominantly attributed to the moisture convergence associated with barotropic vorticity anomalies. A secondary contribution comes from the meridional moisture advection, for which advections by mean and perturbation winds are almost equally important. The meridional contrast in the MSE tendency, due to the recharge in the front of convection and discharge in the rear of convection, is jointly contributed by the meridional and vertical MSE advections. The meridional MSE advection mainly depends on the moisture processes particularly in the PBL, and the vertical MSE advection largely results from the advection of the mean MSE by vertical velocity anomalies, wherein the upper-troposphere ascending motion related to the stratiform heating in the rear of the convection plays the major role. In addition, partial feedback from sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is evaluated on the basis of MSE budget analysis. SST anomalies tend to enhance the surface turbulent heat fluxes ahead of the convention center and suppress them behind the convention center, thus positively contributing approximately 20% of the meridional contrast in the MSE tendency.

Description: Although the development of supergradient winds is well understood, the importance of supergradient winds in tropical cyclone (TC) intensification is still under debate. One view is that the spinup of the eyewall occurs by the upward advection of high tangential momentum associated with supergradient winds from the boundary layer. The other view argues that the upward advection of supergradient winds by eyewall updrafts results in an outward agradient force, leading to the formation of a shallow outflow layer immediately above the inflow boundary layer. As a result, the spinup of tangential wind in the eyewall by the upward advection of supergradient wind from the boundary layer is largely offset by the spindown of tangential wind due to the outflow resulting from the agradient force. In this study, the net contribution by the upward advection of the supergradient wind component from the boundary layer to the intensification rate and final intensity of a TC are quantified through ensemble sensitivity numerical experiments using an axisymmetric TC model. Results show that consistent with the second view above, the positive upward advection of the supergradient wind component from the boundary layer by eyewall updrafts is largely offset by the negative radial advection due to the outflow resulting from the outward agradient force. As a result, the upward advection of the supergradient wind component contributes little (often less than 4%) to the intensification rate and but it contributes about 10%–15% to the final intensity of the simulated TC due to the enhanced inner-core air–sea thermodynamic disequilibrium.

Description: This study is the first to reach a global view of the precipitation process partitioning, using a combination of satellite and global climate modeling data. The pathways investigated are 1) precipitating ice (ice/snow/graupel) that forms above the freezing level and melts to produce rain (S) followed by additional condensation and collection as the melted precipitating ice falls to the surface (R); 2) growth completely through condensation and collection (coalescence), warm rain (W); and 3) precipitating ice (primarily snow) that falls to the surface (SS). To quantify the amounts, data from satellite-based radar measurements—CloudSat, GPM, and TRMM—are used, as well as climate model simulations from the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) and the Met Office Unified Model (UM). Total precipitation amounts and the fraction of the total precipitation amount for each of the pathways is examined latitudinally, regionally, and globally. Carefully examining the contributions from the satellite-based products leads to the conclusion that about 57% of Earth’s precipitation follows pathway S, 15% R, 23% W, and 5% SS, each with an uncertainty of ±5%. The percentages differ significantly from the global climate model results, with the UM indicating smaller fractional S, more R, and more SS; and CAM showing appreciably greater S, negative R (indicating net evaporation below the melting layer), a much larger percentage of W and much less SS. Possible reasons for the wide differences between the satellite- and model-based results are discussed.

Description: The emergence of a spatial pattern in the externally forced response (FR) of dynamic sea level (DSL) during the altimeter era has recently been demonstrated using climate models but our understanding of its initial emergence, drivers, and implications for the future is poor. Here the anthropogenic forcings of the DSL pattern are explored using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and Single-Forcing Large Ensemble, a newly available set of simulations where values of individual forcing agents remain fixed at 1920 levels, allowing for an estimation of their effects. Statistically significant contributions to the DSL FR are identified for greenhouse gases (GHGs) and industrial aerosols (AERs), with particularly strong contributions resulting from AERs in the mid-twentieth century and GHGs in the late twentieth and twenty-first century. Secondary, but important, contributions are identified for biomass burning aerosols in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean in the mid-twentieth century, and for stratospheric ozone in the Southern Ocean during the late twentieth century. Key to understanding regional DSL patterns are ocean heat content and salinity anomalies, which are driven by surface heat and freshwater fluxes, ocean dynamics, and the spatial structure of seawater thermal expansivity. Potential implications for the interpretation of DSL during the satellite era and the longer records from tide gauges are suggested as a topic for future research.

Description: A sensitivity analysis methodology recently developed by the authors is applied to COAMPS and WRF. The method involves varying model parameters according to Latin Hypercube Sampling, and developing multivariate multiple regression models that map the model parameters to forecasts over a spatial domain. The regression coefficients and p values testing whether the coefficients are zero serve as measures of sensitivity of forecasts with respect to model parameters. Nine model parameters are selected from COAMPS and WRF, and their impact is examined on nine forecast quantities (water vapor, convective and gridscale precipitation, and air temperature and wind speed at three altitudes). Although the conclusions depend on the model parameters and specific forecast quantities, it is shown that sensitivity to model parameters is often accompanied by nontrivial spatial structure, which itself depends on the underlying forecast model (i.e., COAMPS vs WRF). One specific difference between these models is in their sensitivity with respect to a parameter that controls temperature increments in the Kain–Fritsch trigger function; whereas this parameter has a distinct spatial structure in COAMPS, that structure is completely absent in WRF. The differences between COAMPS and WRF also extend to the quality of the statistical models used to assess sensitivity; specifically, the differences are largest over the waters off the southeastern coast of the United States. The implication of these findings is twofold: not only is the spatial structure of sensitivities different between COAMPS and WRF, the underlying relationship between the model parameters and the forecasts is also different between the two models.

Description: An increase in the severity of extreme weather is arguably one of the most important consequences of climate change with immediate and potentially devastating impacts. Recent events, like Hurricane Harvey, stimulated public discourse surrounding the role of climate change in amplifying, or otherwise modifying, the patterns of such events. Within the scientific community, recent years have witnessed considerable progress on “climate attribution”—the use of statistical techniques to assess the probability that climate change is influencing the character of some extreme weather events. Using a novel application of signal detection theory, this article assesses when, and to what extent, laypeople attribute changes in hurricanes to climate change and whether and how certain characteristics predict this decision. The results show that people attribute hurricanes to climate change based on their preexisting climate beliefs and numeracy. Respondents who were more dubious about the existence of climate change (and more numerate) required a greater degree of evidence (i.e., a more extreme world) before they were willing to suggest that an unusual hurricane season might be influenced by climate change. However, those who have doubts were still willing to make these attributions when hurricane behavior becomes sufficiently extreme. In general, members of the public who hold different prior views about climate change are not in complete disagreement about the evidence they perceive, which leaves the possibility for future work to explore ways to bring such judgments back into alignment.

Description: A high-resolution global atmospheric model, the nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM), exhibited underestimation biases in low-level mixed-phase clouds in the midlatitudes and polar regions. The ice-cloud microphysics used in a single-moment bulk cloud microphysics scheme (NSW6) was evaluated and improved using a single-column model by reference to a double-moment bulk cloud microphysics scheme (NDW6). Budget analysis indicated that excessive action of the Bergeron–Findeisen and riming processes crucially reduced supercooled liquid water. In addition, the rapid production of rain directly reduced cloud water and indirectly reduced cloud water through the production of snow and graupel by riming. These biases in growth rates were found to originate from the number concentration diagnosis used in NSW6. The diagnosis based on the midlatitude cloud systems assumption was completely different from the one for low-level mixed-phase clouds. To alleviate underestimation biases, rain production, heterogeneous ice nucleation, vapor deposition by snow and graupel, and riming processes were revised. The sequential revisions of cloud microphysics alleviated the underestimation biases step by step without parameter tuning. The lifetime of cloud layers simulated by NSW6 was reasonably prolonged.

Description: Warm-season rainfall associated with mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the central United States is characterized by higher intensity and nocturnal timing compared to rainfall from non-MCS systems, suggesting their potentially different footprints on the land surface. To differentiate the impacts of MCS and non-MCS rainfall on the surface water balance, a water tracer tool embedded in the Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (WT-Noah-MP) is used to numerically “tag” water from MCS and non-MCS rainfall separately during April–August (1997–2018) and track their transit in the terrestrial system. From the water-tagging results, over 50% of warm-season rainfall leaves the surface–subsurface system through evapotranspiration by the end of August, but non-MCS rainfall contributes a larger fraction. However, MCS rainfall plays a more important role in generating surface runoff. These differences are mostly attributed to the rainfall intensity differences. The higher-intensity MCS rainfall tends to produce more surface runoff through infiltration excess flow and drives a deeper penetration of the rainwater into the soil. Over 70% of the top 10th percentile runoff is contributed by MCS rainfall, demonstrating its important contribution to local flooding. In contrast, lower-intensity non-MCS rainfall resides mostly in the top layer and contributes more to evapotranspiration through soil evaporation. Diurnal timing of rainfall has negligible effects on the flux partitioning for both MCS and non-MCS rainfall. Differences in soil moisture profiles for MCS and non-MCS rainfall and the resultant evapotranspiration suggest differences in their roles in soil moisture–precipitation feedbacks and ecohydrology.

Description: Using 4-yr mooring observations and ocean circulation model experiments, this study characterizes the spatial and temporal variability of the Equatorial Intermediate Current (EIC; 200–1200 m) in the Indian Ocean and investigates the causes. The EIC is dominated by seasonal and intraseasonal variability, with interannual variability being weak. The seasonal component dominates the midbasin with a predominant semiannual period of ~166 days but weakens toward east and west where the EIC generally exhibits large intraseasonal variations. The resonant second and fourth baroclinic modes at the semiannual period make the largest contribution to the EIC, determining the overall EIC structures. The higher baroclinic modes, however, modify the EIC’s vertical structures, forming multiple cores during some time periods. The EIC intensity has an abrupt change near 73°E, which is strong to the east and weak to the west. Model simulation suggests that the abrupt change is caused primarily by the Maldives, which block the propagation of equatorial waves. The Maldives impede the equatorial Rossby waves, reducing the EIC’s standard deviation associated with reflected Rossby waves by ~48% and directly forced waves by 20%. Mode decomposition further demonstrates that the semiannual resonance amplitude of the second baroclinic mode reduces by 39% because of the Maldives. However, resonance amplitude of the four baroclinic mode is less affected, because the Maldives fall in the node region of mode 4’s resonance. The research reveals the spatiotemporal variability of the poorly understood EIC, contributing to our understanding of equatorial wave–current dynamics.

Description: The Early Twentieth Century Warming (ETCW) defined as the period 1921–50 saw a clear increase in actinometrical observations in the Arctic. Nevertheless, information on radiation balance and its components at that time is still very limited in availability, and therefore large discrepancies exist among estimates of total solar irradiance forcing. To eliminate these uncertainties, all available solar radiation data for the Arctic needs to be collected and processed. Better knowledge about incoming solar radiation (direct, diffuse and global) should allow for more reliable estimation of the magnitude of total solar irradiance forcing, which can help in turn, to more precisely and correctly explain the reasons for the ETCW in the Arctic. The paper summarises our research into the availability of solar radiation data for the Arctic. An important part of this work is its detailed inventory of data series (including metadata) for the period before the mid-20th century. Based on the most reliable data series, general solar conditions in the Arctic during the ETCW are described. The character of solar radiation changes between the ETCW and present times, in particular after 2000, is also analyzed. Average annual global solar radiation in the Russian Arctic during the ETCW were slightly greater than in the period 1964–90 (by about 1–2 W·m˗2), and markedly greater than in the period 2001–19 (by about 16 W·m˗2). Our results also reveal that in the period 1920–2019 three phases of solar radiation changes can be distinguished: a brightening phase (1921–50), a stabilisation phase (1951–93) and a dimming phase (after 2000).

Description: Variability in soil moisture has implications for regional terrestrial environments under a warming climate. This paper focuses on the spatiotemporal variability in the intra-annual persistence of soil moisture in China using the fifth-generation reanalysis dataset by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for the period 1979–2018. The results show that in China, the mean intra-annual persistence in the humid to arid zones increased from 60 to 115 days in the lower layer but decreased from 19 to 13 days and from 25 to 14 days in the upper and root layers, respectively. However, these changes were strongly attenuated in extremely dry and wet regions due to the scarcity of soil moisture anomalies. Large changes in persistence occurred in the lower soil layer in dryland areas, with a mean difference of up to 40 days between the 2010s and the 1980s. Overall increasing trends dominated the large-scale spatial features, despite regional decreases in the eastern arid zone and the North and Northeast China plains. In the root layer, the two plains experienced an expanded decrease while on the Tibetan Plateau it was dominated by decadal variability. These contrasting changes between the lower and root layers along the periphery of the transition zone was a reflection of the enhanced soil hydrological cycle in the root layer. The enhanced persistence in drylands lower layer is an indication of the intensified impacts of soil moisture anomalies (e.g., droughts) on terrestrial water cycle. These findings may help the understanding of climate change impacts on terrestrial environments.

Description: Data assimilation combines forecasts from a numerical model with observations. Most of the current data assimilation algorithms consider the model and observation error terms as additive Gaussian noise, specified by their covariance matrices Q and R, respectively. These error covariances, and specifically their respective amplitudes, determine the weights given to the background (i.e., the model forecasts) and to the observations in the solution of data assimilation algorithms (i.e., the analysis). Consequently, Q and R matrices significantly impact the accuracy of the analysis. This review aims to present and to discuss, with a unified framework, different methods to jointly estimate the Q and R matrices using ensemble-based data assimilation techniques. Most of the methods developed to date use the innovations, defined as differences between the observations and the projection of the forecasts onto the observation space. These methods are based on two main statistical criteria: 1) the method of moments, in which the theoretical and empirical moments of the innovations are assumed to be equal, and 2) methods that use the likelihood of the observations, themselves contained in the innovations. The reviewed methods assume that innovations are Gaussian random variables, although extension to other distributions is possible for likelihood-based methods. The methods also show some differences in terms of levels of complexity and applicability to high-dimensional systems. The conclusion of the review discusses the key challenges to further develop estimation methods for Q and R. These challenges include taking into account time-varying error covariances, using limited observational coverage, estimating additional deterministic error terms, or accounting for correlated noise.

Description: A large midlatitude cyclone occurred over the central United States from 0000 to 1800 UTC 30 April 2017. During this period, there were more than 1100 reports of moderate-or-greater turbulence at commercial aviation cruising altitudes east of the Rocky Mountains. Much of this turbulence was located above or, otherwise, outside the synoptic-scale cloud shield of the cyclone, thus complicating its avoidance. In this study we use two-way nesting in a numerical model with finest horizontal spacing of 370 m to investigate possible mechanisms producing turbulence in two distinct regions of the cyclone. In both regions, model-parameterized turbulence kinetic energy compares well to observed turbulence reports. Despite being outside of hazardous large radar reflectivity locations in deep convection, both regions experienced strong modification of the turbulence environment as a result of upper-tropospheric/lower-stratospheric (UTLS) convective outflow. For one region, where turbulence was isolated and short lived, simulations revealed breaking of ~100-km horizontal-wavelength lower-stratospheric gravity waves in the exit region of a UTLS jet streak as the most likely mechanism for the observed turbulence. Although similar waves occurred in a simulation without convection, the altitude at which wave breaking occurred in the control simulation was strongly affected by UTLS outflow from distant deep convection. In the other analyzed region, turbulence was more persistent and widespread. There, overturning waves of much shorter 5–10-km horizontal wavelengths occurred within layers of gradient Richardson number 〈 0.25, which promoted Kelvin–Helmholtz instability associated with strong vertical shear in different horizontal locations both above and beneath the convectively enhanced UTLS jet.

Description: In this study, we investigate the technical application of the regularized regression method Lasso for identifying systematic biases in decadal precipitation predictions from a high-resolution regional climate model (CCLM) for Europe. The Lasso approach is quite novel in climatological research. We apply Lasso to observed precipitation and a large number of predictors related to precipitation derived from a training simulation, and transfer the trained Lasso regression model to a virtual forecast simulation for testing. Derived predictors from the model include local predictors at a given grid box and EOF predictors that describe large-scale patterns of variability for the same simulated variables. A major added value of the Lasso function is the variation of the so-called shrinkage factor and its ability in eliminating irrelevant predictors and avoiding overfitting. Among 18 different settings, an optimal shrinkage factor is identified that indicates a robust relationship between predictand and predictors. It turned out that large-scale patterns as represented by the EOF predictors outperform local predictors. The bias adjustment using the Lasso approach mainly improves the seasonal cycle of the precipitation prediction and, hence, improves the phase relationship and reduces the root-mean-square error between model prediction and observations. Another goal of the study pertains to the comparison of the Lasso performance with classical model output statistics and with a bivariate bias correction approach. In fact, Lasso is characterized by a similar and regionally higher skill than classical approaches of model bias correction. In addition, it is computationally less expensive. Therefore, we see a large potential for the application of the Lasso algorithm in a wider range of climatological applications when it comes to regression-based statistical transfer functions in statistical downscaling and model bias adjustment.

Description: Relative sea level rise (RSLR) has driven large increases in annual water level exceedances (duration and frequency) above minor (nuisance level) coastal flooding elevation thresholds established by the National Weather Service (NWS) at U.S. tide gauges over the last half-century. For threshold levels below 0.5 m above high tide, the rates of annual exceedances are accelerating along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts, primarily from evolution of tidal water level distributions to higher elevations impinging on the flood threshold. These accelerations are quantified in terms of the local RSLR rate and tidal range through multiple regression analysis. Along the U.S. West Coast, annual exceedance rates are linearly increasing, complicated by sharp punctuations in RSLR anomalies during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, and we account for annual exceedance variability along the U.S. West and East Coasts from ENSO forcing. Projections of annual exceedances above local NWS nuisance levels at U.S. tide gauges are estimated by shifting probability estimates of daily maximum water levels over a contemporary 5-year period following probabilistic RSLR projections of Kopp et al. (2014) for representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. We suggest a tipping point for coastal inundation (30 days/per year with a threshold exceedance) based on the evolution of exceedance probabilities. Under forcing associated with the local-median projections of RSLR, the majority of locations surpass the tipping point over the next several decades regardless of specific RCP.

Description: Key Points Statement on the importance of climate change politics

Description: VALUE is an open European network to validate and compare downscaling methods for climate change research. VALUE aims to foster collaboration and knowledge exchange between climatologists, impact modellers, statisticians and stakeholders to establish an interdisciplinary downscaling community. A key deliverable of VALUE is the development of a systematic validation framework to enable the assessment and comparison of both dynamical and statistical downscaling methods. In this paper, we present the key ingredients of this framework. VALUE’s main approach to validation is user focussed: starting from a specific user problem, a validation tree guides the selection of relevant validation indices and performance measures. Several experiments have been designed to isolate specific points in the downscaling procedure where problems may occur: what is the isolated downscaling skill? How do statistical and dynamical methods compare? How do methods perform at different spatial scales? Do methods fail in representing regional climate change? How is the overall representation of regional climate, including errors inherited from global climate models? The framework will be the basis for a comprehensive community-open downscaling intercomparison study, but is intended also to provide general guidance for other validation studies.

Description: Using a Lagrangian trajectory model, contributions of moisture from the Indian Ocean (IO), the South China Sea (SCS), the adjacent land region (LD), and the Pacific Ocean (PO) to interannual summer precipitation variations in southwestern China (SWC) are investigated. Results show that, on average, the IO, SCS, LD, and PO contribute 48.8%, 21.1%, 23.6%, and 3.7% of the total moisture release in SWC, respectively. In summers with the above-normal precipitation, moisture release from the IO and SCS increases significantly by 41.4% and 15.1%, respectively. In summers with below-normal precipitation, moisture release from the IO and SCS decreases significantly by 44.2% and 24.6%, respectively. In addition, the moisture anomalies from the four source regions together explain 86.5% of the total interannual variances of SWC summer precipitation, and the IO and SCS only can explain 75.7%. Variations in moisture transport from the IO, SCS, and LD to SWC are not independent of one another and are commonly influenced by the anomalous anticyclone in the western North Pacific Ocean, which enhances the moisture transport from the IO and SCS by the anomalous southwesterlies over its northwestern quadrant but reduces that from the LD east of SWC by the anomalous westerlies along its northern edge. Anomalous warming in the tropical Atlantic Ocean can modify the Walker circulation, induce anomalous descending motion over the central tropical Pacific, and excite the anomalous anticyclone in the western North Pacific as the classic Matsuno–Gill response. The observed impacts of the tropical Atlantic warming on the anomalous anticyclone and summer precipitation in SWC can be well reproduced in an atmospheric general circulation model.

Description: The NOAA Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) is an experimental rapidly updating convection-allowing ensemble designed to provide probabilistic operational guidance on high-impact thunderstorm hazards. The current WoFS uses physics diversity to help maintain ensemble spread. We assess the systematic impacts of the three WoFS PBL schemes—YSU, MYJ, and MYNN—using novel, object-based methods tailored to thunderstorms. Very short forecast lead times of 0–3 h are examined, which limits phase errors and thereby facilitates comparisons of observed and model storms that occurred in the same area at the same time. This evaluation framework facilitates assessment of systematic PBL scheme impacts on storms and storm environments. Forecasts using all three PBL schemes exhibit overly narrow ranges of surface temperature, dewpoint, and wind speed. The surface biases do not generally decrease at later forecast initialization times, indicating that systematic PBL scheme errors are not well mitigated by data assimilation. The YSU scheme exhibits the least bias of the three in surface temperature and moisture and in many sounding-derived convective variables. Interscheme environmental differences are similar both near and far from storms and qualitatively resemble the differences analyzed in previous studies. The YSU environments exhibit stronger mixing, as expected of nonlocal PBL schemes; are slightly less favorable for storm intensification; and produce correspondingly weaker storms than the MYJ and MYNN environments. On the other hand, systematic interscheme differences in storm morphology and storm location forecast skill are negligible. Overall, the results suggest that calibrating forecasts to correct for systematic differences between PBL schemes may modestly improve WoFS and other convection-allowing ensemble guidance at short lead times.

Description: The first and only set of U.S.-nationally distributed K-12 science education standards have been adopted by many states across America, with the potential to be adopted by many more. Earth and space science plays a prominent role in the new standards, with particular emphasis on critical Earth issues such as climate change, sustainability, and human impacts on Earth systems. In the states that choose to adopt the NGSS, American youth will have a rigorous practiced-based formal education in these important areas. Much work needs to be done to insure the adoption and adequate implementation of the Next Generation Science Standards by a majority of American states, however, and there are many things that Earth and space scientists can do to help facilitate the process.

Description: Key Points Earthquake safety is now a lost art due to incorrect seismic hazard estimates huge human losses in regions depicted as low seismic hazard regions by psha Deterministic seismic hazard maps plan for what is possible, not just probable

Description: In the past decade there has been a massive growth in the horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing of shale gas and tight oil reservoirs to exploit formerly inaccessible or unprofitable energy resources in rock formations with low permeability. In North America, these unconventional domestic sources of natural gas and oil provide an opportunity to achieve energy self-sufficiency and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions when displacing coal as a source of energy in power plants. However, fugitive methane emissions in the production process may counter the benefit over coal with respect to climate change and therefore need to be well quantified. Here we demonstrate that positive methane anomalies associated with the oil and gas industries can be detected from space and that corresponding regional emissions can be constrained using satellite observations. Based on a mass-balance approach, we estimate that methane emissions for two of the fastest growing production regions in the United States, the Bakken and Eagle Ford formations, have increased by 990 ± 650 ktCH 4 yr − 1 and 530 ± 330 ktCH 4 yr − 1 between the periods 2006–2008 and 2009–2011. Relative to the respective increases in oil and gas production, these emission estimates correspond to leakages of 10.1 ± 7.3 % and 9.1 ± 6.2 % in terms of energy content, calling immediate climate benefit into question and indicating that current inventories likely underestimate fugitive emissions from Bakken and Eagle Ford.

Description: Population growth, dietary changes and increasing biofuel use are placing unprecedented pressure on the global food system. While this demand likely cannot be met by expanding agricultural lands, much of the world's cropland can attain higher crop yields. Therefore, it is important to examine whether increasing crop productivity to the maximum attainable yield (i.e. yield gap closure) alone can substantially improve food security at global and national scales. Here we show that closing yield gaps through conventional technological development (i.e. fertilizers and irrigation) can potentially meet future global demand if diets are moderated and crop-based biofuel production is limited. In particular, we find that increasing dietary demand will be largely to blame should crop production fall short of demand. In converting projected diets to a globally adequate diet (3000 kcal/cap/day; 20% animal kcal) under current agrofuel use, we find that ~1.8 to ~2.6 billion additional people can be fed in 2030 and ~2.1 to ~3.1 billion additional people in 2050, depending on the extent to which yields can improve in those time periods. Therefore, the simple combination of yield gap closure and moderating diets offers promise for feeding the world's population but only if long-term sustainability is the focus.

Description: The expected urbanization of the planet in the coming century coupled with aging infrastructure in developed regions, increasing complexity of man-made systems, and pressing climate change impacts have created opportunities for reassessing the role of infrastructure and technologies in cities and how they contribute to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Modern urbanization is predicated on complex, increasingly coupled infrastructure systems, and energy use continues to be largely met from fossil fuels. Until energy infrastructures evolve away from carbon-based fuels, GHG emissions are critically tied to the urbanization process. Further complicating the challenge of decoupling urban growth from GHG emissions are lock-in effects and interdependencies. This paper synthesizes state-of-the-art thinking for transportation, fuels, buildings, water, electricity, and waste systems and finds that GHG emissions assessments tend to view these systems as static and isolated from social and institutional systems. Despite significant understanding of methods and technologies for reducing infrastructure-related GHG emissions, physical, institutional, and cultural constraints continue to work against us, pointing to knowledge gaps that must be addressed. This paper identifies three challenge themes to improve our understanding of the role of infrastructure and technologies in urbanization processes and position these increasingly complex systems for low-carbon growth. The challenges emphasize how we reimagine the role of infrastructure in the future and how people, institutions, and ecological systems interface with infrastructure.

Description: Resolving challenges related to the sustainability of natural capital and ecosystem services is an urgent issue. No roadmap on reaching sustainability exists; and the kind of sustainable land use required in a world that acknowledges both multiple environmental boundaries and local human well-being presents a quandary. In this commentary we argue that a new globally consistent and expandable systems-analytical framework is needed to guide and facilitate decision making on sustainability from the planetary through to the local level, and vice versa. This framework would strive to link a multitude of Earth-system processes and targets; it would give preference to systemic insight over data complexity through being highly explicit in spatio-temporal terms. Its strength would lie in its ability to help scientists uncover and explore potential, and even unexpected, interactions between Earth's subsystems with planetary environmental boundaries and socioeconomic constraints coming into play. Equally importantly, such a framework would allow countries like Brazil, a case study in this article, to understand domestic or even local sustainability measures within a global perspective and to optimize them accordingly.

Description: Stable global temperatures of the last 10-15 years have been a topic of considerable discussion. A new proxy extension of the global temperature record enables better placement of this feature in a longer historical perspective. The fixed-grid composite covers the interval 1801-1984, with an extension to 1782 and anchors the global temperature record in the last major cold interval of the Little Ice Age (LIA), when carbon dioxide concentration was at pre-anthropogenic levels. Except for greater and longer cooling (approximately twice the length of Pinatubo) associated with the Tambora eruption, the proxy agrees with the most widely-cited previous assessment of global temperature over this interval, lending more confidence to a centennial extension of the global temperature record. The proxy correlation is as high as 0.83 for the interval 1907-1984 (df = 8, p = 0.001), with the 21 st century 1.0 ± 0.2˚C warmer than the non-volcanic base state. This remarkable linearity requires a clear theoretical understanding as to how an exceedingly complex system can, on the global average, behave in such a simple way. Removal of the linear radiatively-forced component from the global temperature record yields an estimate of natural variability for the last 230 years and indicates no unusual natural variability during the recent 10-15 years. Based on the estimate of unforced variability over the last 170 years, there is about a 40% chance of continued ‘natural cooling’ over the next few years, with about a 10% chance of cooling persisting into the next decade.

Description: Reducing methane losses is a concern for climate change policy and energy policy. The energy sector is the major source of anthropogenic methane emissions into the atmosphere in Ukraine. Reducing methane emissions and avoiding combustion can be very cost-effective, but various barriers prevent such energy-efficiency measures from taking place. To date, few examples of industry-wide improvements exist. One example of substantial investments into upgrading natural gas transmission system comes from Ukraine's natural gas transmission company, Ukrtransgaz. The company's investments into system upgrades, along with a 34 percent fall in throughput, resulted in reduction of Ukrtransgaz system's own consumption of natural gas by 68 percent in 2011 compared to the level in 2005. Evaluating reductions in methane emissions is challenging because of lack of accurate data and gaps in accounting methodologies. At the same time, Ukraine's transmission system has undergone improvements that, at the very least, have contained methane emissions, if not substantially reduced them. In this paper, we describe recent developments in Ukraine's natural gas transmission system and analyze the incentives that forced the sector to pay close attention to its methane losses. Ukraine is one of the most energy-intensive countries, among the largest natural gas consumers in the world, and a significant emitter of methane. The country is also dependent on imports of natural gas. A combination of several factors has created conditions for successful reductions in methane emissions and combustion. These factors include: an eightfold increase in the price of imported natural gas; comprehensive domestic environmental and energy policies, such as the Laws of Ukraine on Protecting the Natural Environment and on Air Protection; policies aimed at integration with European Union's energy market and accession to the Energy Community Treaty; and the country's participation in international cooperation on environment, such as through the Joint Implementation mechanism and the voluntary Global Methane Initiative. Learning about such case studies can help policymakers and sustainability professionals design better policies elsewhere.

Description: By trapping sediment in reservoirs, dams interrupt the continuity of sediment transport through rivers, resulting in loss of reservoir storage and reduced usable life, and depriving downstream reaches of sediments essential for channel form and aquatic habitats. With the acceleration of new dam construction globally, these impacts are increasingly widespread. There are proven techniques to pass sediment through or around reservoirs, to preserve reservoir capacity and to minimize downstream impacts, but they are not applied in many situations where they would be effective. This paper summarizes collective experience from five continents in managing reservoir sediments and mitigating downstream sediment starvation. Where geometry is favorable it is often possible to bypass sediment around the reservoir, which avoids reservoir sedimentation and supplies sediment to downstream reaches with rates and timing similar to pre-dam conditions. Sluicing (or drawdown routing) permits sediment to be transported through the reservoir rapidly to avoid sedimentation during high flows; it requires relatively large capacity outlets. Drawdown flushing involves scouring and re-suspending sediment deposited in the reservoir and transporting it downstream through low-level gates in the dam; it works best in narrow reservoirs with steep longitudinal gradients and with flow velocities maintained above the threshold to transport sediment. Turbidity currents can often be vented through the dam, with the advantage that the reservoir need not be drawn down to pass sediment. In planning dams, we recommend that these sediment management approaches be utilized where possible to sustain reservoir capacity and minimize environmental impacts of dams.

Description: Key Points Most people don't know there is a scientific consensus about climate change This lack of awareness undermines public engagement in climate change Setting the record straight will have important positive consequences

Description: Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and forcing of Earth's climate system over the industrial era have been re-examined in two new assessments: the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and a study by A. Otto and others ( Nature Geosci ., 2013). The ranges of these quantities given in these assessments and also in the Fourth (2007) IPCC Assessment are analyzed here within the framework of a planetary energy balance model, taking into account the observed increase in global mean surface temperature over the instrumental record together with best estimates of the rate of increase of planetary heat content. This analysis shows systematic differences among the several assessments and apparent inconsistencies within individual assessments. Importantly, the likely range of ECS to doubled CO 2 given in AR5, 1.5 to 4.5 K/(3.7 W m -2 ) exceeds the range inferred from the assessed likely range of forcing, 1.2 to 2.9 K/(3.7 W m −2 ), where 3.7 W m −2 denotes the forcing for doubled CO 2 . Such differences underscore the need to identify their causes and reduce the underlying uncertainties. Explanations might involve underestimated negative aerosol forcing, overestimated total forcing, overestimated climate sensitivity, poorly constrained ocean heating, limitations of the energy balance model, or a combination of effects. Summary: Recent assessments of Earth's climate sensitivity and forcings over the industrial period, taking into account the observed increase in global mean surface temperature and rate of increase of planetary heat content, exhibit differences and apparent inconsistencies.

Description: Key Points Onset of the Anthropocene Redefining the Holocene

Description: This paper explores the urban carbon cycle from the natural sciences perspective, identifying key knowledge gaps and priority areas for future research. The combination of large, concentrated carbon fluxes and rapid change makes cities key elements of the carbon cycle and offers the potential for them to serve as “first responders” for climate action. Estimates of urban-scale carbon fluxes are significantly more uncertain than at larger spatial scales, in part because past studies have mostly avoided local/urban scales where the mix of anthropogenic and natural fluxes is complex and difficult to observationally isolate. To develop effective emission-reductions policies, we need to understand emission sources and how they may be changing. Such improved quantification and understanding of underlying processes at the urban scale will not only provide policy-relevant information and improve the understanding of urban dynamics and future scenarios, but will translate into better global-scale anthropogenic flux estimates, and advance our understanding of carbon cycle and climate feedbacks across multiple scales. Understanding the relationship between urbanization and urban carbon flows requires intellectual integration with research communities beyond the natural sciences. Cities can serve as interdisciplinary process laboratories that are sufficiently constrained in both spatial and governance scale to support truly integrated research by the natural sciences, social sciences, and engineering. A thoughtfully crafted science research agenda that is grounded in sustained, dense observations relevant to estimating urban carbon fluxes and their controlling processes and is focused on a statistically significant sample of cities will advance our understanding of the carbon cycle.

Description: Public perception and regulation of environmental hazards are important factors in the development and configuration of cities. Throughout California, probabilistic seismic hazard mapping and geologic investigations of active faults have spatially quantified earthquake hazard. In Los Angeles, these analyses have informed earthquake engineering, public awareness, the insurance industry, and the government regulation of developments near faults. Understanding the impact of natural hazards regulation on the social and built geography of cities is vital for informing future science and policy directions. We constructed a relative social vulnerability index classification for Los Angeles to examine the social condition within regions of significant seismic hazard; including areas regulated as Alquist-Priolo (AP) Act earthquake fault zones. Despite hazard disclosures, social vulnerability is lowest within AP regulatory zones and vulnerability increases with distance from them. Because the AP Act requires building setbacks from active faults, newer developments in these zones are bisected by parks. Parcel-level analysis demonstrates that homes adjacent to these fault zone parks are the most valuable in their neighborhoods. At a broad scale, a Landsat-based normalized difference vegetation index shows that greenness near AP zones is greater than the rest of the metropolitan area. In the parks-poor city of Los Angeles, fault zone regulation has contributed to the construction of park space within areas of earthquake hazard, thus transforming zones of natural hazard into amenities, attracting populations of relatively high social status, and demonstrating that the distribution of social vulnerability is sometimes more strongly tied to amenities than hazards.

Description: The recent intensification of international trade has led to a globalization of food commodities and to an increased disconnection between human populations and the land and water resources that support them through crop and livestock production. Several countries are not self-sufficient and depend on imports from other regions. Despite the recognized importance of the role of trade in global and regional food security, the societal reliance on domestic production and international trade remains poorly quantified. Here we investigate the global patterns of food trade and evaluate the dependency of food security on imports. We investigate the relationship existing between the trade of food calories and the virtual transfer of water used for their production. We show how the amount of food calories traded in the international market has more than doubled between 1986 and 2009, while the number of links in the trade network has increased by more than 50%. Likewise, global food production has increased by more than 50% in the same period, providing an amount of food that is overall sufficient to support the global population at a rate of 2700-3000 kcal per person per day. About 23% of the food produced for human consumption is traded internationally. The Water Use Efficiency of food trade (i.e., food calories produced per unit volume of water used) has declined in the last few decades. The water use efficiency of food production overall increases with the countries’ affluence; this trend is likely due to the use of more advanced technology.

Description: This paper outlines the contributions of social science to the study of interactions between urbanization patterns and processes and the carbon cycle, and identifies gaps in knowledge and priority areas for future social scientific research contributions. While previously studied as a uni-dimensional process, we conceptualize urbanization as a multi-dimensional, social and biophysical process driven by continuous changes across space and time in various sub-systems including biophysical, built environment and socio-institutional (e.g. economic, political, demographic, behavioral and sociological). We review research trends and findings focused on the socio-institutional subsystem of the urbanization process, and particularly the dynamics, relationships and predictions relevant to energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. Our findings suggest that a multi-dimensional perspective of urbanization facilitates a wider spectrum of research relevant to carbon cycle dynamics, even within the socio-institutional sub-system. However, there is little consensus around the details and mechanisms underlying the relationship between urban socio-institutional subsystems and the carbon cycle. We argue that progress in understanding the relationship between urbanization and the carbon cycle may be achieved if social scientists work collaboratively with each other as well as with scientists from other disciplines. From this review we identify research priorities where collaborative social scientific efforts are necessary in conjunction with other disciplinary approaches to generate a more complete understanding of urbanization as a process and its relationship to the carbon cycle.

Description: . Recent studies identified the U.S. East Coast north of Cape Hatteras as a “hotspot” for accelerated sea level rise (SLR), and the analysis presented here show that the area is also a “hotspot for accelerated flooding”. The duration of minor tidal flooding (defined as 0.3 m above MHHW) has accelerated in recent years for most coastal locations from the Gulf of Maine to Florida. The average increase in annual minor flooding duration was ~20 hours from the period until 1970 to 1971–1990, and ~50 hours from 1971–1990 to 1991–2013; spatial variations in acceleration of flooding resembles the spatial variations of acceleration in sea level. The increase in minor flooding can be predicted from SLR and tidal range, but the frequency of extreme storm-surge flooding events (0.9 m above MHHW) is less predictable, and affected by the North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO). The number of extreme storm surge events since 1960 oscillates with a period of ~15-year and interannual variations in the number of storms is anti-correlated with the NAO index. With higher seas, there are also more flooding events that are unrelated to storm surges. For example, it is demonstrated that week-long flooding events in Norfolk, VA, are often related to periods of decrease in the Florida Current transport. The results indicate that previously reported connections between decadal variations in the Gulf Stream and coastal sea level may also apply to short-term variations, so flood predictions may be improved if the Gulf Stream influence is considered.

Description: Independent lines of research on urbanization, urban areas and carbon have advanced our understanding of some of the processes through which energy and land uses affect carbon. This synthesis integrates some of these diverse viewpoints as a first step towards a co-produced, integrated framework for understanding urbanization, urban areas and their relationships to carbon. It suggests the need for approaches that complement and combine the plethora of existing insights into interdisciplinary explorations of how different urbanization processes, and socio-ecological and technological components of urban areas affect the spatial and temporal patterns of carbon emissions, differentially over time and within and across cities. It also calls for a more holistic approach to examining the carbon implications of urbanization and urban areas, based not only on demographics or income, but also on such other interconnected features of urban development pathways as urban form, economic function, economic growth policies and other governance arrangements. It points to a wide array of uncertainties around the urbanization processes, their interactions with urban socio-institutional and built-environment systems, how these impact the exchange of carbon flows within and outside urban areas. We must also understand in turn how carbon feedbacks, including carbon impacts and potential impacts of climate change, can affect urbanization processes. Finally, the paper explores options, barriers and limits to transitioning cities to low-carbon trajectories, and suggests the development of an end-to-end, co-produced and integrated scientific understanding that can more effectively inform the navigation of transitional journeys and the avoidance of obstacles along the way.

Description: When sea ice forms it scavenges and concentrates particulates from the water column, which then become trapped until the ice melts. In recent years, melting has led to record lows in Arctic sea ice extent, the most recent in September 2012. Global climate models, such as that of Gregory et al. [2002], suggest that the decline in Arctic sea ice volume (3.4% per decade), will actually exceed the decline in sea ice extent, something that Laxon et al . [2013] have shown supported by satellite data. The extent to which melting ice could release anthropogenic particulates back to the open ocean has not yet been examined. Here we show that Arctic sea ice from remote locations contains concentrations of microplastics at least two orders of magnitude greater than those that have been previously reported in highly contaminated surface waters, such as those of the Pacific Gyre. Our findings indicate that microplastics have accumulated far from population centers and that polar sea ice represents a major historic global sink of man-made particulates. The potential for substantial quantities of legacy microplastic contamination to be released to the ocean as the ice melts therefore needs to be evaluated, as do the physical and toxicological effects of plastics on marine life.

Description: We used the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) global two-dimensional (2D) atmospheric model to investigate the stratospheric ozone response to a proposed geoengineering activity wherein a reduced top-of-atmosphere (TOA) solar irradiance is imposed to help counteract a quadrupled CO 2 atmosphere. This study is similar to the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) Experiment G1. Three primary simulations were completed with the GSFC 2D model to examine this possibility: A) a pre-industrial atmosphere with a boundary condition of 285 ppmv CO 2 ( piControl ); B) a base future atmosphere with 1140 ppmv CO 2 ( abrupt4xCO2 ); and C) a perturbed future atmosphere with 1140 ppmv CO 2 and a 4% reduction in the TOA total solar irradiance ( G1 ). We found huge ozone enhancements throughout most of the stratosphere (up to 40%) as a result of a large computed temperature decrease (up to 18K) when CO 2 was quadrupled (compare simulation abrupt4xCO2 to piControl ). Further, we found that ozone will additionally increase (up to 5%) throughout most of the stratosphere with total ozone increases of 1-2.5% as a result of a reduction in TOA total solar irradiance (compare simulation G1 to abrupt4xCO2 ). Decreases of atomic oxygen and temperature are the main drivers of this computed ozone enhancement from a reduction in TOA total solar irradiance.

Description: We assess the ability of global water systems, resolved at 282 Assessment Sub Regions (ASRs), to the meet water requirements under integrated projections of socioeconomic growth and climate change. We employ a Water Resource System (WRS) component embedded within the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework in a suite of simulations that consider a range of climate policies and regional hydro-climate changes out to 2050. For many developing nations, water-demand increases due to population growth and economic activity have a much stronger effect on water stress than climate change. By 2050, economic growth and population change alone can lead to an additional 1.8 billion people living under at least moderate water stress, with 80% of these located in developing countries. Uncertain regional climate change can play a secondary role to either exacerbate or dampen the increase in water stress. The strongest climate impacts on water stress are seen in Africa, but strong impacts also occur over Europe, Southeast Asia and North America. The combined effects of socioeconomic growth and uncertain climate change lead to a 1.0 to 1.3 billion increase of the world's 2050 projected population living with overly exploited water conditions— where total potential water requirements will consistently exceed surface-water supply. This would imply that adaptive measures would be taken to meet these surface-water shortfalls and include: water-use efficiency, reduced and/or redirected consumption, recurrent periods of water emergencies or curtailments, groundwater depletion, additional inter-basin transfers, and overdraw from flow intended to maintain environmental requirements.

Description: Sea-level rise due to both climate change and non-climatic factors threatens coastal settlements, infrastructure and ecosystems. Projections of mean global sea level (GSL) rise provide insufficient information to plan adaptive responses; local decisions require local projections that accommodate different risk tolerances and time frames and that can be linked to storm surge projections. Here we present a global set of local sea level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We provide complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling. Between the years 2000 and 2100, we project a very likely (90% probability) GSL rise of 0.5–1.2 m under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, 0.4–0.9 m under RCP 4.5, and 0.3–0.8 m under RCP 2.6. Site-to-site differences in LSL projections are due to varying non-climatic background uplift or subsidence, oceanographic effects, and spatially-variable responses of the geoid and the lithosphere to shrinking land ice. The Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) constitutes a growing share of variance in GSL and LSL projections. In the global average and at many locations, it is the dominant source of variance in late 21st century projections, though at some sites oceanographic processes contribute the largest share throughout the century. LSL rise dramatically reshapes flood risk, greatly increasing the expected number of ‘1-in-10’ and ‘1-in-100’ year events. Summary Local sea-level rise generally differs from global sea-level rise, with differences arising from local uplift or subsidence, ocean dynamics, and the sea-level response to shrinking land ice. Uncertain Antarctic ice sheet mass loss is the largest source of uncertainty in late-century projections globally and at most sites, although ocean dynamics is the major source in some locations. Sea-level rise greatly amplifies flood risk, pointing to the need for including sea-level rise allowances in flood risk assessments.

Description: Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2 "∘ C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2 "∘ C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO 2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO 2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.

Description: The Southern Hemisphere summertime eddy-driven jet and storm tracks have shifted poleward over the recent few decades. In previous studies, explanations have mainly stressed the influence of external forcing in driving this trend. Here we examine the role of internal tropical SST variability in controlling the austral summer jet’s poleward migration, with a focus on interdecadal time scales. The role of external forcing and internal variability are isolated by using a hierarchy of Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) simulations, including the pre-industrial control, large ensemble, and pacemaker runs. Model simulations suggest that in the early twenty-first century, both external forcing and internal tropical Pacific SST variability are important in driving a positive southern annular mode (SAM) phase and a poleward migration of the eddy-driven jet. Tropical Pacific SST variability, associated with the negative phase of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), acts to shift the jet poleward over the southern Indian and southwestern Pacific Oceans and intensify the jet in the southeastern Pacific basin, while external forcing drives a significant poleward jet shift in the South Atlantic basin. In response to both external forcing and decadal Pacific SST variability, the transient eddy momentum flux convergence belt in the middle latitudes experiences a poleward migration due to the enhanced meridional temperature gradient, leading to a zonally symmetric southward migration of the eddy-driven jet. This mechanism distinguishes the influence of the IPO on the midlatitude circulation from the dynamical impact of ENSO, with the latter mainly promoting the subtropical wave-breaking critical latitude poleward and pushing the midlatitude jet to higher latitudes.

Description: Heated tipping-bucket (TB) gauges are used broadly in national weather monitoring networks, but their performance for the measurement of solid precipitation has not been well characterized. Manufacturer-provided TB gauges were evaluated at five test sites during the World Meteorological Organization Solid Precipitation Intercomparison Experiment (WMO-SPICE), with most gauge types tested at more than one site. The test results were used to develop and evaluate adjustments for the undercatch of solid precipitation by heated TB gauges. New methods were also developed to address challenges specific to measurements from heated TB gauges. Tipping-bucket transfer functions were created specifically to minimize the sum of errors over the course of the adjusted multiseasonal accumulation. This was based on the hypothesis that the best transfer function produces the most accurate long-term precipitation records, rather than accurate catch efficiency measurements or accurate daily or hourly precipitation measurements. Using this new approach, an adjustment function derived from multiple gauges was developed that performed better than traditional gauge-specific and multigauge catch efficiency derived adjustments. Because this new multigauge adjustment was developed using six different types of gauges tested at five different sites, it may be applicable to solid precipitation measurements from unshielded heated TB gauges that were not evaluated in WMO-SPICE. In addition, this new method of optimizing transfer functions may be useful for other types of precipitation gauges, as it has many practical advantages over the traditional catch efficiency methods used to derive undercatch adjustments.

Description: This article illustrates how multifrequency radar observations can refine the mass–size parameterization of frozen hydrometeors in scattering models and improve the correlation between the radar observations and in situ measurements of microphysical properties of ice and snow. The data presented in this article were collected during the GPM Cold Season Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx) (2012) and Olympic Mountain Experiment (OLYMPEx) (2015) field campaigns, where the true mass–size relationship was not measured. Starting from size and shape distributions of ice particles measured in situ, scattering models are used to simulate an ensemble of reflectivity factors for various assumed mass–size parameterizations (MSP) of the power-law type. This ensemble is then collocated to airborne and ground-based radar observations, and the MSPs are refined by retaining only those that reproduce the radar observations to a prescribed level of accuracy. A versatile “retrieval dashboard” is built to jointly analyze the optimal MSPs and associated retrievals. The analysis shows that the optimality of an MSP depends on the physical assumptions made in the scattering simulators. This work confirms also the existence of a relationship between parameters of the optimal MSPs. Through the MSP optimization, the retrievals of ice water content M and mean diameter Dm seem robust to the change in meteorological regime (between GCPEx and OLYMPEx); whereas the retrieval of the diameter spread Sm seems more campaign dependent.

Description: The filtering properties of the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), and the model calibrated drought index (MCDI) are investigated to determine their relations to past, present, and future precipitation anomalies in regions with a wide diversity of precipitation characteristics. All three indices can be closely approximated by weighted averages of precipitation, but with different weighting. The SPI is well represented by one-sided, uniformly weighted averages; the MCDI is well represented by one-sided, exponentially weighted averages; and the PDSI is well represented by two-sided, exponentially weighted averages with much higher weighting of past and present precipitation than future precipitation. Detailed analyses identify interpretational complications and other undesirable features in the SPI and PDSI. In addition, the PDSI and MCDI are each restricted to single regionally specific “intrinsic” time scales that can significantly differ between the two indices. Inspired by the strengths of the SPI, PDSI, and MCDI, a hybrid index is developed that consists of exponentially weighted averages of past and present precipitation that are implicit in the PDSI and MCDI. The explicit specification of the exponential weighting allows users to control the time scale of the hybrid index to investigate precipitation variability on any time scale of interest. This advantage over the PDSI and MCDI is analogous to the controllability of the time scale of the SPI, but the exponentially fading memory is more physical than the uniform weighting of past and present precipitation in the SPI.

Description: This study investigates the association between summer high temperature extremes (HTEs) over China and the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) that is characterized by an anomalous north–south sea surface temperature gradient and an anomalous surface circulation over the northeastern subtropical Pacific. It is found that the HTE activities over most parts of southern China (particularly eastern China) are prominently intensified during the positive PMM phase and weakened during the negative phase. Further examinations suggest that the PMM is linked with HTEs in China through processes that entail both eastward and westward development of signals emanating from the PMM site. The westward development is associated with the formation of an anomalous low-level cyclone over the western North Pacific (WNP), which may be viewed as a Matsuno–Gill-type response to the off-equatorial heating in the eastern Pacific. This circulation change is accompanied by anomalous ascent over WNP and northern China, and subsidence over eastern China. On the other hand, the eastward development process is linked to the PMM-induced displacement of the East Asian jet stream and the generation of a midlatitude Rossby wave train. In the positive PMM phase, the above circulation changes are accompanied by anomalous air subsidence and enhanced adiabatic heating, reduced precipitation, anomalous lower-level anticyclone, and rising surface pressure over the eastern part of China. Moreover, the land surface of that region receives more solar radiation. Opposite changes are discernible over northern China. These changes are favorable for the occurrence and persistence of HTEs over eastern China and tend to suppress HTEs over northern China.

Description: Currently, major efforts are under way to refine the horizontal resolution of weather and climate models to kilometer-scale grid spacing (Δx). Besides refining the representation of the atmospheric dynamics and enabling the use of explicit convection, this will also provide higher resolution in the representation of orography. This study investigates the influence of these resolution increments on the simulation of orographic moist convection. Nine days of fair-weather thermally driven flow over the Alps are analyzed. Two sets of simulations with the COSMO model are compared, each consisting of three runs at Δx of 4.4, 2.2, and 1.1 km: one set using a fixed representation of orography at a resolution of 8.8 km, and one with varying representation at the resolution of the computational mesh. The spatial distribution of precipitation during daytime is only marginally affected by the orographic details, but nighttime convection to the south of the Alps—triggered by cold-air outflow from the valleys—is very sensitive to orography and precipitation is enhanced if more detailed orography is provided. During daytime, the onset of precipitation is delayed. The amplitude of the diurnal cycle of precipitation is reduced, even though more moisture converges toward the Alpine region during the afternoon. The hereby accumulated moisture sustains precipitation during the evening and nighttime over the surrounding plains. For these differences, the effects of changes in orographic detail are more important than changes in grid spacing. In addition, the individual convective cells are weaker, but their number increases with higher resolved orography.

Description: Recent studies proposed leading averaged coupled covariance (LACC) as an effective strongly coupled data assimilation (SCDA) method to improve the coupled state estimation over weakly coupled data assimilation (WCDA) in a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). This SCDA method, however, has been previously evaluated only in the perfect model scenario. Here, as a further step toward evaluating LACC for real world data assimilation, LACC is evaluated for the assimilation of reanalysis data in a CGCM. Several criteria are used to evaluate LACC against the benchmark WCDA. It is shown that despite significant model bias, LACC can improve the coupled state estimation over WCDA. Compared to WCDA, LACC increases the globally averaged anomaly correlation coefficients (ACCs) of sea surface temperature (SST) by 0.036 and atmosphere temperature at the bottom level (Ts) by 0.058. However, there also exist regions where WCDA outperforms LACC. Although the reduction in the anomaly root-mean-square error (RMSE) is not as consistently clear as the increase in ACC, LACC can largely correct the biased model climatology.

Description: Under stably stratified conditions, the dissipation rate ε of turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) is related to the structure function parameter for temperature CT2, through the buoyancy frequency and the so-called mixing efficiency. A similar relationship does not exist for convective turbulence. In this paper, we propose an analytical expression relating ε and CT2 in the convective boundary layer (CBL), by taking into account the effects of nonlocal heat transport under convective conditions using the Deardorff countergradient model. Measurements using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) equipped with high-frequency response sensors to measure velocity and temperature fluctuations obtained during the two field campaigns conducted at Shigaraki MU observatory in June 2016 and 2017 are used to test this relationship between ε and CT2 in the CBL. The selection of CBL cases for analysis was aided by auxiliary measurements from additional sensors (mainly radars), and these are described. Comparison with earlier results in the literature suggests that the proposed relationship works, if the countergradient term γD in the Deardorff model, which is proportional to the ratio of the variances of potential temperature θ and vertical velocity w, is evaluated from in situ (airplane and UAV) observational data, but fails if evaluated from large-eddy simulation (LES) results. This appears to be caused by the tendency of the variance of θ in the upper part of the CBL and at the bottom of the entrainment zone to be underestimated by LES relative to in situ measurements from UAVs and aircraft. We discuss this anomaly and explore reasons for it.

Description: Quantifying the spatial and temporal patterns of the water lost to the atmosphere through land surface evapotranspiration (ET) is essential for understanding the global hydrological cycle, but remains much uncertain. In this study, we use the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM) to estimate the global terrestrial ET during 2000–2009 and project its changes in response to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO 2 under two IPCC SRES scenarios (A2 and B1) during 2010–2099. Modeled results show a mean annual global terrestrial ET of about 549 (545–552) mm yr −1 during 2000–2009. Relative to the 2000s, global terrestrial ET for the 2090's would increase by 30.7 mm/year (5.6%) and 13.2 mm/year (2.4%) under the A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. About 60% of global land area would experience increasing ET at rates of over 9.5 mm/decade over the study period under the A2 scenario. The Arctic region would have the largest ET increase (16% compared with the 2000s level) due to larger increase in temperature than other regions. Decreased ET would mainly take place in regions like central and western Asia, northern Africa, Australia, eastern South America and Greenland due to declines in soil moisture and changing rainfall patterns. Our results indicate that warming temperature and increasing precipitation would result in large increase in ET by the end of the 21 st century, while increasing atmospheric CO 2 would be responsible for decrease of ET, given the reduction of stomatal conductance under elevated CO 2 .

Description: The indirect radiative effect of aerosol variability on shallow cumulus clouds is realized in nature with considerable concurrent meteorological variability. Large-eddy simulations constrained by observations at a continental site in Oklahoma are performed to represent the variability of different meteorological states on days with different aerosol conditions. The total radiative effect of this natural covariation between aerosol and other meteorological drivers of total cloud amount and albedo is quantified. The changes to these bulk quantities are used to understand the response of the cloud radiative effect to aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI) in the context of concurrent processes, as opposed to attempting to untangle the effect of individual processes on a case-by-case basis. Mutual information (MI) analysis suggests that meteorological variability masks the strength of the relationship between cloud drop number concentration and the cloud radiative effect. This is shown to be mostly due to variation in solar zenith angle and cloud field horizontal heterogeneity masking the relationship between cloud drop number and cloud albedo. By combining MI and more traditional differential analyses, a framework to identify important modes of covariation between aerosol, clouds, and meteorological conditions is developed. This shows that accounting for solar zenith angle variation and implementing an albedo bias correction increases the detectability of the radiative effects of ACI in simulations of shallow cumulus.

Description: We explore the response of wintertime Arctic sea ice growth to strong cyclones and to large-scale circulation patterns on the daily scale using Earth system model output in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A combined metrics ranking method selects three CMIP5 models that are successful in reproducing the wintertime Arctic dipole (AD) pattern. A cyclone identification method is applied to select strong cyclones in two subregions in the North Atlantic to examine their different impacts on sea ice growth. The total change of sea ice growth rate (SGR) is split into those respectively driven by the dynamic and thermodynamic atmospheric forcing. Three models reproduce the downward longwave radiation anomalies that generally match thermodynamic SGR anomalies in response to both strong cyclones and large-scale circulation patterns. For large-scale circulation patterns, the negative AD outweighs the positive Arctic Oscillation in thermodynamically inhibiting SGR in both impact area and magnitude. Despite the disagreement on the spatial distribution, the three CMIP5 models agree on the weaker response of dynamic SGR than thermodynamic SGR. As the Arctic warms, the thinner sea ice results in more ice production and smaller spatial heterogeneity of thickness, dampening the SGR response to the dynamic forcing. The higher temperature increases the specific heat of sea ice, thus dampening the SGR response to the thermodynamic forcing. In this way, the atmospheric forcing is projected to contribute less to change daily SGR in the future climate.

Description: In this study, remote influence originating from the tropical western Indian Ocean on June precipitation in South China and the Indochina Peninsula is documented. Based on numerical simulation and statistical analysis, it is noted that the warm anomaly in the tropical western Indian Ocean can induce a weaker-than-normal Walker circulation across the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific Ocean. This further leads to a northeast–southwest-oriented western North Pacific subtropical high and a weaker-than-normal monsoon trough in the South China Sea. In addition, the weak monsoon trough is concurrent with an anomalous rising motion in South China and a sinking motion in the Indochina Peninsula. This enhances precipitation in South China and suppresses precipitation in the Indochina Peninsula on an interannual time scale. On the other hand, the warming trend in the tropical western Indian Ocean also supports the long-term trends of precipitation in the two regions.

Description: Spanning across the equator with a northwest–southeast orientation, the island of Sumatra can exert significant influences on low-level flow. Under northeasterly flow, in particular, lee vortices can form and some of them may subsequently develop into tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Indian Ocean (IO). Building upon the recent work of Fine et al., this study investigates the roles of the Sumatra topography and other common features on the formation of selected cases for analysis and numerical experiments. Four cases in northern IO were selected for analysis and two of them [Nisha (2008) and Ward 2009)] for simulation at a grid size of 4 km. Sensitivity tests without the Sumatra topography were also performed. Our results indicate that during the lee stage, most pre-TC vortices tend to be stronger with a clearer circulation when the topography is present. However, the island’s terrain is a helpful but not a deciding factor in TC formation. Specifically, the vortices in the no-terrain tests also reach TC status, but just at a later time. Some common ingredients contributing to a favorable environment for TC genesis are identified. They include northeasterly winds near northern Sumatra, westerly wind bursts along the equator, and migratory disturbances (TC remnants or Borneo vortices) to provide additional vorticity/moisture from the South China Sea. These factors also appear in most of the 22 vortices in northern IO during October–December in 2008 and 2009. For the sole case (Cleo) examined in southern IO, the deflection of equatorial westerlies into northwesterlies by Sumatra (on the windward side) is also helpful to TC formation.

Description: Observations across the North Atlantic jet stream with high vertical resolution are used to explore the structure of the jet stream, including the sharpness of vertical wind shear changes across the tropopause and the wind speed. Data were obtained during the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment (NAWDEX) by an airborne Doppler wind lidar, dropsondes, and a ground-based stratosphere–troposphere radar. During the campaign, small wind speed biases throughout the troposphere and lower stratosphere of only −0.41 and −0.15 m s−1 are found, respectively, in the ECMWF and Met Office analyses and short-term forecasts. However, this study finds large and spatially coherent wind errors up to ±10 m s−1 for individual cases, with the strongest errors occurring above the tropopause in upper-level ridges. ECMWF and Met Office analyses indicate similar spatial structures in wind errors, even though their forecast models and data assimilation schemes differ greatly. The assimilation of operational observational data brings the analyses closer to the independent verifying observations, but it cannot fully compensate for the forecast error. Models tend to underestimate the peak jet stream wind, the vertical wind shear (by a factor of 2–5), and the abruptness of the change in wind shear across the tropopause, which is a major contribution to the meridional potential vorticity gradient. The differences are large enough to influence forecasts of Rossby wave disturbances to the jet stream with an anticipated effect on weather forecast skill even on large scales.

Description: In this paper, an extended nonlinear multiscale interaction model is proposed to examine nonlinear behavior of eddy-driven blocking as a Rossby wave packet in a three-dimensional background flow by dividing the background meridional potential vorticity gradient (PVy) into dynamical PVy⁡(PVyD) related to the horizontal (mainly meridional) shear of background westerly wind (BWW) and thermodynamic PVy⁡(PVyT) associated with the meridional temperature gradient (MTG). It is found that eddy-driven baroclinic blocking with large amplitude in the midtroposphere tends to have a longer lifetime (~20 days) in a baroclinic atmosphere with stratification than eddy-driven barotropic blocking without vertical variation (less than 15 days). It is shown that barotropic blocking shows a northwest–southeast orientation and has long lifetime, large retrogression, and slow decay only for weaker barotropic BWW and PVyD in higher latitudes. In a baroclinic atmosphere with stratification, baroclinic blocking shows long lifetime, strong eastward movement, slow decay, weak strength, and less local persistence for large barotropic BWW and PVyD under PVyT=0, but becomes less slow decay, weak retrogression, and large local persistence for small barotropic BWW and PVyD. Such a blocking with a north–south antisymmetric dipole, large amplitude, and long local persistence, characterized by a persistent large meander of westerly jet streams, is easily seen when baroclinic BWW and PVyT are small in the lower to midtroposphere. Comparatively, the magnitude of PVyT plays a larger role in the blocking change than that of PVyD, whereas the vertical variation of MTG is more important for the blocking change than the MTG itself for some cases.

Description: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections have been recognized as possible negative influences on crop yields in the United States during the summer growing season, especially in a developing La Niña summer. This study examines the physical processes of the ENSO summer teleconnections and remote impacts on the United States during a multiyear La Niña life cycle. Since 1950, a developing La Niña summer is either when an El Niño is transitioning to a La Niña or when a La Niña is persisting. Due to the distinct prior ENSO conditions, the oceanic and atmospheric characteristics in the tropics are dissimilar in these two different La Niña summers, leading to different teleconnection patterns. During the transitioning summer, the decaying El Niño and the developing La Niña induce suppressed deep convection over both the subtropical western Pacific (WP) and the tropical central Pacific (CP). Both of these two suppressed convection regions induce Rossby wave propagation extending toward North America, resulting in a statistically significant anomalous anticyclone over northeastern North America and, therefore, a robust warming signal over the Midwest. In contrast, during the persisting summer, only one suppressed convection region is present over the tropical CP induced by the La Niña SST forcing, resulting in a weak and insignificant extratropical teleconnection. Experiments from a stationary wave model confirm that the suppressed convection over the subtropical WP during the transitioning summer not only contributes substantially to the robust warming over the Midwest but also causes the teleconnections to be different from those in the persisting summer.

Description: The zonostrophic instability that leads to the emergence of zonal jets in barotropic beta-plane turbulence is analyzed through a geometric decomposition of the eddy stress tensor. The stress tensor is visualized by an eddy variance ellipse whose characteristics are related to eddy properties. The tilt of the ellipse principal axis is the tilt of the eddies with respect to the shear, and the eccentricity of the ellipse is related to the eddy anisotropy, and its size is related to the eddy kinetic energy. Changes of these characteristics are directly related to the vorticity fluxes forcing the mean flow. The statistical state dynamics of the turbulent flow closed at second order is employed as it provides an analytic expression for both the zonostrophic instability and the stress tensor. For the linear phase of the instability, the stress tensor is analytically calculated at the stability boundary. For the nonlinear equilibration of the instability the tensor is calculated in the limit of small supercriticality in which the amplitude of the jet velocity follows Ginzburg–Landau dynamics. It is found that, dependent on the characteristics of the forcing, the jet is accelerated either because the jet primarily anisotropizes the eddies so as to produce upgradient fluxes, or because the jet changes the eddy tilt. The instability equilibrates as these changes are partially reversed by the nonlinear jet–eddy dynamics.

Description: The circulation of the Kuroshio northeast of Taiwan is characterized by a large anticyclonic loop of surface intrusion and strong upwelling at the shelfbreak. To study the mechanisms of Kuroshio intrusions, the vorticity balance is examined using a high-resolution nested numerical model. In the 2D depth-averaged vorticity equation, the advection of geostrophic potential vorticity (APV) term and the joint effect of baroclinicity and relief (JEBAR) term are dominant. On the other hand, in the 2D depth-integrated vorticity equation, the main balance is between nonlinear advection and bottom pressure torque. It is shown that JEBAR and APV tend to compensate, and their difference is comparable to bottom pressure torque. Perhaps most significantly, a general framework is provided for examination of vorticity balance over steep slopes through a full 3D depth-dependent vorticity equation. The 3D analysis reveals a well-defined bottom boundary layer over the shelfbreak, about 40 m deep and capped by the vertical velocity maximum. In the upper frictionless layer from the surface to about 100 m, the primary balance is between nonlinear advection and horizontal divergence. In the lower frictional layer, viscous stress is balanced by nonlinear advection and horizontal divergence. The bottom pressure torque, which corresponds to the depth-integrated viscous effect, is a proxy for viscous stress divergence at the bottom. The importance of nonlinear advection is further demonstrated in a sensitivity experiment by removing advective terms from momentum equations. Without nonlinear advection, the bottom pressure torque becomes trivial, the boundary layer vanishes, and the on-shelf intrusion is considerably weakened.

Description: This study developed a daily index to represent the northwest Pacific monsoon trough using westerly related cyclonic vorticity after removing tropical cyclones (TCs) from the reanalysis dataset. This index sufficiently captures the spatial and temporal variations in the monsoon trough. The use of this daily index revealed new features in the monsoon trough, including daily statistical characteristics, the active period over a year, and the main periodicity. A monsoon trough can be identified as active when the daily index is greater than 2.0 × 10−4 s−1. Active monsoon troughs occur during half of the summertime, and these is no monsoon trough on one-third of days, with the remaining days categorized as inactive. The most active month is August, in which approximately 20 days exhibit an active monsoon trough. Using this index, an active monsoon trough period, which is related to vigorous TC activity, was determined by identifying the establishment and decay dates for each year from 1979 to 2016. During most years, the active monsoon trough is established in mid-July and decays in late October, persisting for 3–5 months during the boreal summer. Moreover, spectral and wavelet analyses demonstrated the presence of intraseasonal, interannual, and interdecadal variabilities in the monsoon trough. The dominant periodicity for the interannual variability varied from 1.5 to 4 years in different decades. The relationship between the monsoon trough and TCs is also revealed using this index, showing that approximately 60% of TC formations were related to an active monsoon trough.

Description: The Z–R relationship is a scaling-law formulation, Z = ARb, connecting the radar reflectivity Z to the rain rate R. However, more than 100 Z–R relationships, with different values of the parameters, have been reported in literature. This abundance of relationships is in itself a strong indication that no one “physical” relationship exists, a state of affairs that we find similar to that of the protagonist of Luigi Pirandello’s novel One, No One and One Hundred Thousand. Nevertheless the “elevation” of a simple linear fit in the (logR, logZ) space to the role of “scaling law” is such a widespread tenet in literature that it eclipses the simple realization that the abundance of different intercepts and slopes reflects the inhomogeneous nature of rain, and, in ultimate analysis, the statistical variability existing between the number of drops and drop size distribution. Here, we “eliminate” the contribution of the number of drops by rescaling both reflectivity and rainfall rate to per unit drop variables, (Z, R) → (z, r), so that the remaining variability is due only to the variability of the drop size distribution. We use a worldwide database of disdrometer data to show that for the rescaled variables (z, r) only “one,” albeit approximate, scaling law exists.

Description: In this paper, a methodology is proposed to quantitatively evaluate precipitation products for multiple purposes. Evaluation mainly focuses on rainfall characteristics relevant to hydrological or agricultural applications: spatial distribution pattern, effect of aggregation over time, the capture of small-scale variability and seasonality, detection of dry spells and wet spells, and timing and volume of heavy rainfall events. Verification statistics were modified and metrics were reported for extreme weather performance, such as flood and drought monitoring. The analysis was performed for different rainfall categories, over regions dominated by different weather systems or with different topographical structures. The latest versions of seven commonly available, high-resolution rainfall estimates have been evaluated by the method against daily data from 16 rain gauge stations over Tanzania, during 1998–2006. They were TRMM 3B42, CHIRPS, TAMSAT, CMORPH_RAW, CMORPH_BLD, WFDEI_CRU, and CPCU. All products, except for CMORPH_BLD and CPCU, were poorly correlated to gauge data at daily time scale with correlation coefficients 〈 0.5. Five-day aggregation was the minimum time scale that can be used for the products to reach an accuracy better than monthly-mean of gauge data. Their performance varied across different climatic or topographical regions and different rainfall seasons. Timing of precipitation was inaccurately estimated by all products, particularly for heavy rains, with less than 40% hits. The results of the evaluation procedure allow discrimination between available products and better selection of the product to be used for a specific application, such as crop insurance or flood early warning, under particular climatic conditions.

Description: Standard meteorological balloons can deliver small scientific payloads to the stratosphere for a few tens of minutes, but achieving multihour level flight in this region is more difficult. We have developed a solar-powered hot-air balloon named the heliotrope that can maintain a nearly constant altitude in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere as long as the sun is above the horizon. It can accommodate scientific payloads ranging from hundreds of grams to several kilograms. The balloon can achieve float altitudes exceeding 24 km and fly for days in the Arctic summer, although sunset provides a convenient flight termination mechanism at lower latitudes. Two people can build an envelope in about 3.5 h, and the materials cost about $30. The low cost and simplicity of the heliotrope enables a class of missions that is generally out of reach of institutions lacking specialized balloon expertise. Here, we discuss the design history, construction techniques, trajectory characteristics, and flight prediction of the heliotrope balloon. We conclude with a discussion of the physics of solar hot-air balloon flight.

Description: The deep ocean is severely under-sampled. While shipboard measurements provide irregular spatial and temporal records, moored time series establish deep ocean high-resolution time series, but only at limited locations. Here, highlights and challenges of measuring abyssal temperature and salinity on the Kuroshio Extension Observatory (KEO) mooring (32.3°N 144.6°E) from 2013 - 2019 are described. Using alternating SeaBird-37SMP instruments on annual deployments, an apparent fresh drift of 0.03-0.06 PSU was observed, with each newly deployed sensor returning to historical norms near 34.685 PSU. Recurrent salinity discontinuities were pronounced between the termination of each deployment and the initiation of the next, yet consistent pre- and post-deployment calibrations suggested the freshening was “real”. Because abyssal salinities do not vary by 0.03-0.06 PSU between deployment locations, the contradictory salinities during mooring overlap pointed toward a sensor issue that self-corrects prior to post-calibration. A persistent nepheloid layer, unique to KEO and characterized by murky, sediment-filled water, is likely responsible for sediment accretion in the conductivity cell. As sediment (or biofouling) increasingly clogs the instrument, salinity drifts toward a fresh bias. During ascent, the cell is flushed, clearing the clogged instrument. In contrast to salinity, deep ocean temperatures appear to increase from 2013 - 2017 by 0.0059°C, while a comparison to historical deep temperature measurements does not support a secular temperature increase in the region. It is suggested that decadal or interannual variability associated with the Kuroshio Extension may have an imprint on deep temperatures. Recommendations are discussed for future abyssal temperature and salinity measurements.

Description: An investigation of Tropical Cyclone (TC) Kelvin in February 2018 over northeast Australia was conducted to understand the mechanisms of the brown ocean effect (BOE) and to develop a comprehensive analysis framework for landfalling TCs in the process. NASA’s Land Information System (LIS) coupled to the NASA Unified WRF (NU-WRF) system was employed as the numerical model framework for 12 land/soil moisture perturbation experiments. Impacts of soil moisture and surface enthalpy flux conditions on TC Kelvin were investigated by closely evaluating simulated track and intensity, midlevel atmospheric thermodynamic properties, vertical wind shear, total precipitable water (TPW), and surface moisture flux. The results suggest that there were recognized differentiations among the sensitivity simulations as a result of land surface (e.g., soil moisture and texture) conditions. However, the intensification of TC Kelvin over land was more strongly related to atmospheric moisture advection and the diurnal cycle of solar radiation (i.e., radiative cooling) than to overall soil moisture conditions or surface fluxes. The analysis framework employed here for TC Kelvin can serve as a foundation to specifically quantify the factors governing the BOE. It also demonstrates that the BOE is not a binary influence (i.e., all or nothing), but instead operates in a continuum from largely to minimally influential such that it could be utilized to help improve prediction of inland effects for all landfalling TCs.

Description: Extraordinary precipitation events have impacted the United States recently, including Hurricanes Harvey (2017) and Florence (2018), with 3-day precipitation totals larger than any others reported in the United States during the past 70 years. The rainfall category (R-CAT) scaling method is used here to document extreme precipitation events and test for trends nationally. The R-CAT scale uses thresholds of 3-day precipitation total in 100-mm increments (starting with 200 mm) that do not vary temporally or geographically, allowing for simple, intuitive comparisons of extremes over space and time. The paper that introduced the scale only required levels 1–4 to represent historical extremes, finding that R-CATs 3–4 strike the conterminous United States about as frequently as EF 4–5 tornadoes or category 3–5 hurricanes. Remarkably, Florence and Harvey require extending the scale to R-CAT 7 and 9, respectively. Trend analyses of annual maximum 3-day totals (1950–2019) here identify significant increases in the eastern United States, along with declines in Northern California and Oregon. Consistent with these results, R-CAT storms have been more frequent in the eastern, and less frequent in western, United States during the past decade compared to 1950–2008. Tropical storms dominate R-CAT events along the southeastern coast and East Coast with surprising contributions from atmospheric rivers, while atmospheric rivers completely dominate along the West Coast.