ALBERT

Description: Efforts to date have not advanced Indigenous participation, capacity building and knowledge in Arctic environmental science in Canada because Arctic environmental science has yet to acknowledge, or truly practice decolonizing research. The expanding literature on decolonizing and Indigenous research provides guidance towards these alternative research approaches, but less has been written about how you do this in practice and the potential role for non-Indigenous research partners in supporting Inuit self-determination in research. This paper describes the decolonizing methodology of a non-Indigenous researcher partner and presents a co-developed approach, called the Sikumiut model, for Inuit and non-Indigenous researchers interested in supporting Inuit self-determination. In this model the roles of Inuit and non-Indigenous research partners were redefined, with Inuit governing the research and non-Indigenous research partners training and mentoring Inuit youth to conduct the research themselves. The Sikumiut model shows how having Inuit in decision-making positions ensured Inuit data ownership, accessibility, and control over how their Inuit Qaujimajatuqangit is documented, communicated, and respected for its own scientific merit. It examines the benefits and potential to build on the existing research capacity of Inuit youth and describes the guidance and lessons learned from a non-Indigenous researcher in supporting Inuit self-determination in research. Pinasuktaujut maannamut pivaallirtittisimangimmata nunaqarqaarsimajunik ilautitauninginnik, pijunnarsivallianirmik ammalu qaujimajaujunik ukiurtartumi avatilirinikkut kiklisiniarnikkut kanata pijjutigillugu ukiurtartumi avatilirinikkut kiklisiniarnikkut ilisarsisimangimmata, uvaluunniit piliringimmata issaktausimangittunik silataanit qaujisarnirmut. Uqalimaagait issaktausimangittunit silataanit ammalu nunaqarqaarsimajut qaujisarningit piviqartittikmata tukimuagutaujunnarlutik asiagut qaujisarnikkut, kisiani titirartauqattanginnirsaukmat qanuq pilirigajarmangaata ammalu ilautitauningit nunaqarqaarsimangittut qaujisarnirmut ikajurtuilutik Inuit nangminiq qaujisaqattarnirmut. Taanna titirarsimajuq uqausiqartuq issaktausimangillutik iliqusiujumik nunaqarqaarsimangittut qaujisartiujut ammalu saqittillutik ikajurtigiiklutik pigiartittinirmik, taijaujuq sikumiut aturtanga, inungnut ammalu nunaqarqaarsimangittunut qaujisartinut pijumajunut ikajurtuilutik Inuit nangminiq qaujisarnirmut. Tavani aturtaujumi piliriaksangit Inuit ammalu nunaqarqaarsimangittut qaujisartiujut tukisinarsititaullutik, Inuit aulattillutik qaujisarnirmik ammalu nunaqarqaarsimangittut qausartit ilinniartittillutik ammalu pilimmaksaillutik makkuktunik inungnik nangminiq qaujisarunnarniarmata. Sikumiunut aturtaujuq takuksaujuq qanuq Inuit aaqiksuijiullutik Inuit pisimajiuniarlutik tinngirartaujunik, takujaujunnarningit ammalu aulatauningit qanuq inuit qaujimajatuqangit titirartaukmangaata, tusaumajjutaukmangaata ammaluikpigijaulutik kiklisiniarnikkut atuutiqarninginnik. Takunangniujuq pivaalliutaujunnartunik ammalu pirurpalliagajartunik maanna qaujisarniujumik pijunnarsiqullugit makkuktut Inuit ammalu uqausiulluni tukimuagutaujunnartut ammalu ilitausimajut nunaqarqaarsimangittunit qausartinit ikajurtuilutik inuit nangminiq qaujisarnirmut.

Description: A total of 344 soil cores were taken in annually cropped fields of Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario from 2011 to 2013 in areas where the field shapes, or obstacles within fields, required the driving pattern of farm operations to overlap. Soil nitrate-N concentrations in overlapping areas were 60% greater, soil Olsen-P concentrations were 23% greater, and pH was 0.5 units greater at 0–15 cm depth compared with non-overlapping areas, suggesting smaller nutrient use efficiency and potential for greater nutrient loss.

Description: Differences in soil water retention (SWR) characteristics between soil types and the factors driving those differences provide important information for land management, particularly in regions such as the Colombian Andes, which have limited water-storage infrastructure and where soils provide plant-available water and other ecosystem services. The objective of this study was to explore relationships between SWR and physical, chemical, and mineralogical properties of Andisols and Inceptisols through a case study of two watersheds in the Colombian Andes. This study identified a complex relationship between total carbon (TC), short-range order (SRO) minerals, and SWR. Both soil types had high SWR, with volumetric water content at permanent wilting point between 39% and 53%. Principal component analysis showed association of SWR with TC, SRO minerals, and % clay in both soil types. The Andisols of this study were coarse textured, allophanic (rich in allophane and imogolite — up to 17% in the B horizon), and with up to 15% TC in the A horizon. In contrast, the Inceptisols were fine textured (〉30% clay) and higher in ferrihydrite than the Andisols. The formation of organo-metallic complexes was observed in A horizons; however, TC was lower under pasture than forest in both soil types. The addition of organic matter to soils with SRO minerals, such as the soils of this study, may foster the formation of organo-metallic complexes, stabilize soil C, and enhance SWR. Consequently, both study sites may benefit from management practices that increase soil organic matter.

Description: This study investigated differences in forest structure, organic layer thickness, soil organic carbon, and permafrost depth between late successional (LS) and post fire (PF, 90 to 120 years since burn) plots under black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP) on fine-textured, poorly drained lacustrine sediments in the Copper River Basin, Alaska. We found that although live stem and seedling density and organic layer thickness (OLT) was not significantly different between PF and LS plots (28 ± 7 cm and 31 ± 10 cm, respectively), soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks (30 ± 10 kg m-2 and 46 ± 12 kg m-2, respectively), and permafrost depth (90 ± 28 cm and 56 ± 12 cm, respectively) remain significantly different. OLT was linearly related to 1 m SOC stocks for LS plots but not for PF plots, and LS plots had a greater proportion of highly decomposed (humic) material in the organic layer. Soil properties on PF plots appear to be on a trajectory of recovery towards LS plots with respect to SOC stocks, permafrost depth, and organic layer composition, but remain different despite nearly 100 years since fire disturbance and therefore potentially sensitive to changes in future fire frequency or climate.

Description: Global change-driven droughts are triggering worldwide forest dieback which are predicted to increase even further. Here, we combined genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and dendrochronological approaches to assess genetically-based individual tree vulnerability to past extreme droughts that caused massive mortality of Nothofagus dombeyi forests in northern Patagonia. We collected fresh leaves and wood cores from pairs of Healthy Crown (HC) and Partially Affected crown (PA) trees at four sites impacted by 1998, 2008 and 2014 droughts. We used dendrochronological techniques to estimate parameters in terms of growth trends due to drought and genomic analysis to assess its relationship with water stress. While 5,155 neutral loci did not discriminate PA from HC trees, a set of 33 adaptive SNPs did so, 8 of which were related to hydric stress. Association analysis between genomic variants and dendrophenotypic traits yielded 6 SNPs that were associated with a growth measure as resilience to cope with drought. Our preliminary results indicate that susceptibility to drought in N. dombeyi could be determined at the genomic level. The combination of both approaches provides a framework for the identification and analysis of candidate genes for stress response in non-model species.

Description: The concept of cloud radiative forcing (CRF) is commonly applied to quantify the impact of clouds on the surface radiative energy budget (REB). In the Arctic, specific radiative interactions between microphysical and macrophysical properties of clouds and the surface strongly modify the warming or cooling effect of clouds, complicating the estimate of CRF obtained from observations or models. Clouds tend to increase the broadband surface albedo over snow or sea ice surfaces compared to cloud-free conditions. However, this effect is not adequately considered in the derivation of CRF in the Arctic so far. Therefore, we have quantified the effects caused by surface-albedo–cloud interactions over highly reflective snow or sea ice surfaces on the CRF using radiative transfer simulations and below-cloud airborne observations above the heterogeneous springtime marginal sea ice zone (MIZ) during the Arctic CLoud Observations Using airborne measurements during polar Day (ACLOUD) campaign. The impact of a modified surface albedo in the presence of clouds, as compared to cloud-free conditions, and its dependence on cloud optical thickness is found to be relevant for the estimation of the shortwave CRF. A method is proposed to consider this surface albedo effect on CRF estimates by continuously retrieving the cloud-free surface albedo from observations under cloudy conditions, using an available snow and ice albedo parameterization. Using ACLOUD data reveals that the estimated average shortwave cooling by clouds almost doubles over snow- and ice-covered surfaces (−62 W m−2 instead of −32 W m−2), if surface-albedo–cloud interactions are considered. As a result, the observed total (shortwave plus longwave) CRF shifted from a warming effect to an almost neutral one. Concerning the seasonal cycle of the surface albedo, it is demonstrated that this effect enhances shortwave cooling in periods when snow dominates the surface and potentially weakens the cooling by optically thin clouds during the summertime melting season. These findings suggest that the surface-albedo–cloud interaction should be considered in global climate models and in long-term studies to obtain a realistic estimate of the shortwave CRF to quantify the role of clouds in Arctic amplification.

Description: The evaluation of potential landslides in mountain areas is a very complex process. Currently, event understanding is scarce due to information limitations. Identifying the whole chain of events is not a straightforward task, and the impacts of mass-wasting processes depend on the conditions downstream of the origin. In this paper, we present an example that illustrates the complexities in the evaluation of the chain of events that may lead to a natural disaster. On 16 December 2017, a landslide occurred in the Yelcho mountain range (southern Chile). In that event, 7 million m3 of rocks and soil fell on the Yelcho glacier, depositing 2 million m3 on the glacier terminal, and the rest continued downstream, triggering a mudflow that hit Villa Santa Lucía in Chilean Patagonia and killing 22 people. The complex event was anticipated in the region by the National Geological and Mining Survey (Sernageomin in Spanish). However, the effects of the terrain characteristics along the run-out area were more significant than anticipated. In this work, we evaluate the conditions that enabled the mudflow that hit Villa Santa Lucía. We used the information generated by Sernageomin's professionals after the mudflow. We carried out geotechnical tests to characterize the soil. We simulated the mudflow using two hydrodynamic programs (r.avaflow and Flo-2D) that can handle the rheology of the water–soil mixture. Our results indicate that the soil is classified as volcanic pumices. This type of soil can be susceptible to the collapse of the structure when subjected to shearing (molding), flowing as a viscous liquid. From the numerical modeling, we concluded that r.avaflow performs better than Flo-2D. The mudflow was satisfactorily simulated using a water content in the mixture ranging from 30 % to 40 %, which would have required a source of about 3 million m3 of water. Coupling the simulations and the soil tests that we performed, we estimated that in the area scoured by the mudflow, there were probably around 2 800 000 m3 of water within the soil. Therefore, the conditions of the valley were crucial to enhancing the impacts of the landslide. This result is relevant because it highlights the importance of evaluating the complete chain of events to map hazards. We suggest that in future hazard mapping, geotechnical studies in combination with hydrodynamic simulation should be included, in particular when human lives are at risk.

Description: Production and reduction of nitrous oxide (N2O) by soil denitrifiers influence atmospheric concentrations of this potent greenhouse gas. Accurate projections of the net N2O flux have three key uncertainties: (1) short- vs. long-term responses to warming, (2) interactions among soil horizons, and (3) temperature responses of different steps in the denitrification pathway. We addressed these uncertainties by sampling soil from a boreal forest climate transect encompassing a 5.2 ∘C difference in the mean annual temperature and incubating the soil horizons in isolation and together at three ecologically relevant temperatures in conditions that promote denitrification. Both short-term exposure to warmer temperatures and long-term exposure to a warmer climate increased N2O emissions from organic and mineral soils; an isotopic tracer suggested that an increase in N2O production was more important than a decline in N2O reduction. Short-term warming promoted the reduction of organic horizon-derived N2O by mineral soil when these horizons were incubated together. The abundance of nirS (a precursor gene for N2O production) was not sensitive to temperature, whereas that of nosZ clade I (a gene for N2O reduction) decreased with short-term warming in both horizons and was higher from a warmer climate. These results suggest a decoupling of gene abundance and process rates in these soils that differs across horizons and timescales. In spite of these variations, our results suggest a consistent, positive response of denitrifier-mediated net N2O efflux rates to temperature across timescales in these boreal forests. Our work also highlights the importance of understanding cross-horizon N2O fluxes for developing a predictive understanding of net N2O efflux from soils.

Description: Wetlands are the largest and most uncertain natural sources of atmospheric methane (CH4). Several process-based models have been developed to quantify the magnitude and estimate spatial and temporal variations in CH4 emissions from global wetlands. Reliable models are required to estimate global wetland CH4 emissions. This study aimed to test two process-based models, CH4MODwetland and Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), against the CH4 flux measurements of marsh, swamp, peatland and coastal wetland sites across the world; specifically, model accuracy and generality were evaluated for different wetland types and in different continents, and then the global CH4 emissions from 2000 to 2010 were estimated. Both models showed similar high correlations with the observed seasonal/annual total CH4 emissions, and the regression of the observed versus computed total seasonal/annual CH4 emissions resulted in R2 values of 0.81 and 0.68 for CH4MODwetland and TEM, respectively. The CH4MODwetland produced accurate predictions for marshes, peatlands, swamps and coastal wetlands, with model efficiency (EF) values of 0.22, 0.52, 0.13 and 0.72, respectively. TEM produced good predictions for peatlands and swamps, with EF values of 0.69 and 0.74, respectively, but it could not accurately simulate marshes and coastal wetlands (EF 

Description: As knowledge about the cirrus clouds in the lower stratosphere is limited, reliable long-term measurements are needed to assess their characteristics, radiative impact and important role in upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) chemistry. We used 6 years (2006–2012) of Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) measurements to investigate the global and seasonal distribution of stratospheric cirrus clouds and compared the MIPAS results with results derived from the latest version (V4.x) of the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) data. For the identification of stratospheric cirrus clouds, precise information on both the cloud top height (CTH) and the tropopause height is crucial. Here, we used lapse rate tropopause heights estimated from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis. Considering the uncertainties of the tropopause heights and the vertical sampling grid, we define CTHs more than 0.5 km above the tropopause as stratospheric for CALIPSO data. For MIPAS data, we took into account the coarser vertical sampling grid and the broad field of view so that we considered cirrus CTHs detected more than 0.75 km above the tropopause as stratospheric. Further sensitivity tests were conducted to rule out sampling artefacts in MIPAS data. The global distribution of stratospheric cirrus clouds was derived from night-time measurements because of the higher detection sensitivity of CALIPSO. In both data sets, MIPAS and CALIPSO, the stratospheric cirrus cloud occurrence frequencies are significantly higher in the tropics than in the extra-tropics. Tropical hotspots of stratospheric cirrus clouds associated with deep convection are located over equatorial Africa, South and Southeast Asia, the western Pacific, and South America. Stratospheric cirrus clouds were more often detected in December–February (15 %) than June–August (8 %) in the tropics (±20∘). At northern and southern middle latitudes (40–60∘), MIPAS observed about twice as many stratospheric cirrus clouds (occurrence frequencies of 4 %–5 % for MIPAS rather than about 2 % for CALIPSO). We attribute more frequent observations of stratospheric cirrus clouds with MIPAS to the higher detection sensitivity of the instrument to optically thin clouds. In contrast to the difference between daytime and night-time occurrence frequencies of stratospheric cirrus clouds by a factor of about 2 in zonal means in the tropics (4 % and 10 %, respectively) and at middle latitudes for CALIPSO data, there is little diurnal cycle in MIPAS data, in which the difference of occurrence frequencies in the tropics is about 1 percentage point in zonal mean and about 0.5 percentage point at middle latitudes. The difference between CALIPSO day and night measurements can also be attributed to their differences in detection sensitivity. Future work should focus on better understanding the origin of the stratospheric cirrus clouds and their impact on radiative forcing and climate.

Description: Air quality on our planet has been changing in particular since the industrial revolution (1750s) because of anthropogenic emissions. It is becoming increasingly important to realize air cleanliness, since clean air is as valuable a resource as clean water. A global standard for quantifying the level of air cleanliness is swiftly required, and we defined a novel concept, namely the Clean aIr Index (CII). The CII is a simple index defined by the normalization of the amount of a set of individual air pollutants. A CII value of 1 indicates completely clean air (no air pollutants), and 0 indicates the presence of air pollutants that meet the numerical environmental criteria for the normalization. In this time, the air pollutants used in the CII were taken from the Air Quality Guidelines (AQG) set by the World Health Organization (WHO), namely O3, particulate matters, NO2, and SO2. We chose Japan as a study area to evaluate CII because of the following reasons: (i) accurate validation data, as the in situ observation sites of the Atmospheric Environmental Regional Observation System (AEROS) provide highly accurate values of air pollutant amounts, and (ii) fixed numerical criteria from the Japanese Environmental Quality Standards (JEQS) as directed by the Ministry of the Environment (MOE) of Japan. We quantified air cleanliness in terms of the CII for the all 1896 municipalities in Japan and used data from Seoul and Beijing to evaluate Japanese air cleanliness. The amount of each air pollutant was calculated using a model that combined the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models for 1 April 2014 to 31 March 2017. The CII values calculated by the WRF–CMAQ model and the AEROS measurements showed good agreement. The mean of the correlation coefficient for the CII values of 498 municipalities where the AEROS measurements operated was 0.66±0.05, which was higher than that of the Air Quality Index (AQI) of 0.57±0.06. The CII values averaged for the study period were 0.67, 0.52, and 0.24 in Tokyo, Seoul, and Beijing, respectively; thus, the air in Tokyo was 1.5 and 2.3 times cleaner, i.e., lower amounts of air pollutants, than the air in Seoul and Beijing, respectively. The average CII value for the all Japanese municipalities was 0.72 over the study period. The extremely clean air, CII ≈0.90, occurred in the southern remote islands of Tokyo and to the west of the Pacific coast, i.e., Kochi, Mie, and Wakayama prefectures during summer, with the transport of clean air from the ocean. We presented the top 100 clean air cities in Japan as one example of an application of CII in society. We confirmed that the CII enabled the quantitative evaluation of air cleanliness. The CII can be useful and valuable in various scenarios such as encouraging sightseeing and migration, investment and insurance business, and city planning. The CII is a simple and fair index that can be applied to all nations.

Description: Calculating a multi-model mean, a commonly used method for ensemble averaging, assumes model independence and equal model skill. Sharing of model components amongst families of models and research centres, conflated by growing ensemble size, means model independence cannot be assumed and is hard to quantify. We present a methodology to produce a weighted-model ensemble projection, accounting for model performance and model independence. Model weights are calculated by comparing model hindcasts to a selection of metrics chosen for their physical relevance to the process or phenomena of interest. This weighting methodology is applied to the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) ensemble to investigate Antarctic ozone depletion and subsequent recovery. The weighted mean projects an ozone recovery to 1980 levels, by 2056 with a 95 % confidence interval (2052–2060), 4 years earlier than the most recent study. Perfect-model testing and out-of-sample testing validate the results and show a greater projective skill than a standard multi-model mean. Interestingly, the construction of a weighted mean also provides insight into model performance and dependence between the models. This weighting methodology is robust to both model and metric choices and therefore has potential applications throughout the climate and chemistry–climate modelling communities.

Description: Connections between vegetation and soil thermal dynamics are critical for estimating the vulnerability of permafrost to thaw with continued climate warming and vegetation changes. The interplay of complex biophysical processes results in a highly heterogeneous soil temperature distribution on small spatial scales. Moreover, the link between topsoil temperature and active layer thickness remains poorly constrained. Sixty-eight temperature loggers were installed at 1–3 cm depth to record the distribution of topsoil temperatures at the Trail Valley Creek study site in the northwestern Canadian Arctic. The measurements were distributed across six different vegetation types characteristic for this landscape. Two years of topsoil temperature data were analysed statistically to identify temporal and spatial characteristics and their relationship to vegetation, snow cover, and active layer thickness. The mean annual topsoil temperature varied between −3.7 and 0.1 ∘C within 0.5 km2. The observed variation can, to a large degree, be explained by variation in snow cover. Differences in snow depth are strongly related with vegetation type and show complex associations with late-summer thaw depth. While cold winter soil temperature is associated with deep active layers in the following summer for lichen and dwarf shrub tundra, we observed the opposite beneath tall shrubs and tussocks. In contrast to winter observations, summer topsoil temperature is similar below all vegetation types with an average summer topsoil temperature difference of less than 1 ∘C. Moreover, there is no significant relationship between summer soil temperature or cumulative positive degree days and active layer thickness. Altogether, our results demonstrate the high spatial variability of topsoil temperature and active layer thickness even within specific vegetation types. Given that vegetation type defines the direction of the relationship between topsoil temperature and active layer thickness in winter and summer, estimates of permafrost vulnerability based on remote sensing or model results will need to incorporate complex local feedback mechanisms of vegetation change and permafrost thaw.

Description: Evapotranspiration (ET) from tropical forests serves as a critical moisture source for regional and global climate cycles. However, the magnitude, seasonality, and interannual variability of ET in the Congo Basin remain poorly constrained due to a scarcity of direct observations, despite the Congo being the second-largest river basin in the world and containing a vast region of tropical forest. In this study, we applied a water balance model to an array of remotely sensed and in situ datasets to produce monthly, basin-wide ET estimates spanning April 2002 to November 2016. Data sources include water storage changes estimated from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites, in situ measurements of river discharge, and precipitation from several remotely sensed and gauge-based sources. An optimal precipitation dataset was determined as a weighted average of interpolated data by Nicholson et al. (2018), Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation with Station data version 2 (CHIRPS2) , and the Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks–Climate Data Record product (PERSIANN-CDR), with the relative weights based on the error magnitudes of each dataset as determined by triple collocation. The resulting water-balance-derived ET (ETwb) features a long-term average that is consistent with previous studies (117.2±3.5 cm yr−1) but displays greater seasonal and interannual variability than seven global ET products. The seasonal cycle of ETwb generally tracks that of precipitation over the basin, with the exception that ETwb is greater in March–April–May (MAM) than in the relatively wetter September–October–November (SON) periods. This pattern appears to be driven by seasonal variations in the diffuse photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) fraction, net radiation (Rn), and soil water availability. From 2002 to 2016, Rn, PAR, and vapor-pressure deficit (VPD) all increased significantly within the Congo Basin; however, no corresponding trend occurred in ETwb. We hypothesize that the stability of ETwb over the study period despite sunnier and less humid conditions may be due to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations that offset the impacts of rising VPD and irradiance on stomatal water use efficiency (WUE).

Description: A range of future climate scenarios are projected for high atmospheric CO2 concentrations, given uncertainties over future human actions as well as potential environmental and climatic feedbacks. The geological record offers an opportunity to understand climate system response to a range of forcings and feedbacks which operate over multiple temporal and spatial scales. Here, we examine a single interglacial during the late Pliocene (KM5c, ca. 3.205±0.01 Ma) when atmospheric CO2 exceeded pre-industrial concentrations, but were similar to today and to the lowest emission scenarios for this century. As orbital forcing and continental configurations were almost identical to today, we are able to focus on equilibrium climate system response to modern and near-future CO2. Using proxy data from 32 sites, we demonstrate that global mean sea-surface temperatures were warmer than pre-industrial values, by ∼2.3 ∘C for the combined proxy data (foraminifera Mg∕Ca and alkenones), or by ∼3.2–3.4 ∘C (alkenones only). Compared to the pre-industrial period, reduced meridional gradients and enhanced warming in the North Atlantic are consistently reconstructed. There is broad agreement between data and models at the global scale, with regional differences reflecting ocean circulation and/or proxy signals. An uneven distribution of proxy data in time and space does, however, add uncertainty to our anomaly calculations. The reconstructed global mean sea-surface temperature anomaly for KM5c is warmer than all but three of the PlioMIP2 model outputs, and the reconstructed North Atlantic data tend to align with the warmest KM5c model values. Our results demonstrate that even under low-CO2 emission scenarios, surface ocean warming may be expected to exceed model projections and will be accentuated in the higher latitudes.

Description: The meridional heat transport (MHT) in the North Atlantic is critically important to climate variability and the global overturning circulation. A wide range of ocean processes contribute to North Atlantic MHT, ranging from basin-scale overturning and gyre motions to mesoscale instabilities (such as eddies). However, previous analyses of “eddy” MHT in the region have mostly focused on the contributions of time-variable velocity and temperature, rather than considering the association of MHT with distinct spatial scales within the basin. In this study, a zonal spatial-scale decomposition separates large-scale from mesoscale velocity and temperature contributions to MHT, in order to characterize the physical processes driving MHT. Using this approach, we found that the mesoscale contributions to the time-mean and interannual/decadal (ID) variability of MHT in the latitude range 39–45∘ N are larger than large-scale horizontal contributions, though smaller than the overturning contributions. Considering the 40∘ N transect as a case study, large-scale ID variability is mostly generated close to the western boundary. In contrast, most ID MHT variability associated with mesoscales originates in two distinct regions: a western boundary region (70–60∘ W) associated with 1- to 4-year interannual variations and an interior region (50–35∘ W) associated with decadal variations. Surface eddy kinetic energy is not a reliable indicator of high MHT episodes, but the large-scale meridional temperature gradient is an important factor, by influencing the local temperature variance as well as the local correlation of velocity and temperature. Most of the mesoscale contribution to MHT at 40∘ N is associated with transient and propagating processes, but stationary mesoscale structures explain most of the mesoscale MHT south of the Gulf Stream separation, highlighting the differences between the temporal and spatial decomposition of meridional temperature fluxes.

Description: Accurate reference spectroscopic information for the water molecule from the microwave to the near-ultraviolet is of paramount importance in atmospheric research. A semi-empirical potential energy surface for the ground electronic state of H216O has been created by refining almost 4000 experimentally determined energy levels. These states extend into regions with large values of rotational and vibrational excitation. For all states considered in our refinement procedure, which extend to 37 000 cm−1 and J=20 (total angular momentum), the average root-mean-square deviation is approximately 0.05 cm−1. This potential energy surface offers significant improvements when compared to recent models by accurately predicting states possessing high values of J. This feature will offer significant improvements in calculated line positions for high-temperature spectra where transitions between high J states become more prominent. Combining this potential with the latest dipole moment surface for water vapour, a line list has been calculated which extends reliably to 37 000 cm−1. Obtaining reliable results in the ultraviolet is of special importance as it is a challenging spectral region for the water molecule both experimentally and theoretically. Comparisons are made against several experimental sources of cross sections in the near-ultraviolet and discrepancies are observed. In the near-ultraviolet our calculations are in agreement with recent atmospheric retrievals and the upper limit obtained using broadband spectroscopy by Wilson et al. (2016, p. 194), but they do not support recent suggestions of very strong absorption in this region.

Description: Various studies investigated the fate of evaporation and the origin of precipitation. The more recent studies among them were often carried out with the help of numerical moisture tracking. Many research questions could be answered within this context, such as dependencies of atmospheric moisture transfers between different regions, impacts of land cover changes on the hydrological cycle, sustainability-related questions, and questions regarding the seasonal and interannual variability of precipitation. In order to facilitate future applications, global datasets on the fate of evaporation and the sources of precipitation are needed. Since most studies are on a regional level and focus more on the sources of precipitation, the goal of this study is to provide a readily available global dataset on the fate of evaporation for a fine-meshed grid of source and receptor cells. The dataset was created through a global run of the numerical moisture tracking model Water Accounting Model-2layers (WAM-2layers) and focused on the fate of land evaporation. The tracking was conducted on a 1.5∘×1.5∘ grid and was based on reanalysis data from the ERA-Interim database. Climatic input data were incorporated in 3- to 6-hourly time steps and represent the time period from 2001 to 2018. Atmospheric moisture was tracked forward in time and the geographical borders of the model were located at ±79.5∘ latitude. As a result of the model run, the annual, the monthly and the interannual average fate of evaporation were determined for 8684 land grid cells (all land cells except those located within Greenland and Antarctica) and provided via source–receptor matrices. The gained dataset was complemented via an aggregation to country and basin scales in order to highlight possible usages for areas of interest larger than grid cells. This resulted in data for 265 countries and 8223 basins. Finally, five types of source–receptor matrices for average moisture transfers were chosen to build the core of the dataset: land grid cell to grid cell, country to grid cell, basin to grid cell, country to country, basin to basin. The dataset is, to our knowledge, the first ready-to-download dataset providing the overall fate of evaporation for land cells of a global fine-meshed grid in monthly resolution. At the same time, information on the sources of precipitation can be extracted from it. It could be used for investigations into average annual, seasonal, and interannual sink and source regions of atmospheric moisture from land masses for most of the regions in the world and shows various application possibilities for studying interactions between people and water, such as land cover changes or human water consumption patterns. The dataset is accessible under https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.908705 (Link et al., 2019a) and comes along with example scripts for reading and plotting the data.

Description: Optimum management of irrigated crops in regions with shallow saline groundwater requires a careful balance between application of irrigation water and upward movement of salinity from the groundwater. Few field-validated surrogate models are available to aid in the management of irrigation water under shallow groundwater conditions. The objective of this research is to develop a model that can aid in the management using a minimum of input data that are field validated. In this paper a 2-year field experiment was carried out in the Hetao irrigation district in Inner Mongolia, China, and a physically based integrated surrogate model for arid irrigated areas with shallow groundwater was developed and validated with the collected field data. The integrated model that links crop growth with available water and salinity in the vadose zone is called Evaluation of the Performance of Irrigated Crops and Soils (EPICS). EPICS recognizes that field capacity is reached when the matric potential is equal to the height above the groundwater table and thus not by a limiting hydraulic conductivity. In the field experiment, soil moisture contents and soil salt conductivity at five depths in the top 100 cm, groundwater depth, crop height, and leaf area index were measured in 2017 and 2018. The field results were used for calibration and validation of EPICS. Simulated and observed data fitted generally well during both calibration and validation. The EPICS model that can predict crop growth, soil water, groundwater depth, and soil salinity can aid in optimizing water management in irrigation districts with shallow aquifers.

Description: Recently, it has been established that interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) can dramatically affect both trapped electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt and precipitating electron fluxes lost from the belt into the atmosphere. Precipitating electron fluxes and energies can vary over a range of timescales during these events. These variations depend on the initial energy and location of the electron population and the ICME characteristics and structures. One important factor controlling electron dynamics is the magnetic field orientation within the ejecta that is an integral part of the ICME. In this study, we examine Van Allen Probes (RBSPs) and Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites (POESs) data to explore trapped and precipitating electron fluxes during two ICMEs. The ejecta in the selected ICMEs have magnetic cloud characteristics that exhibit the opposite sense of the rotation of the north–south magnetic field component (BZ). RBSP data are used to study trapped electron fluxes in situ, while POES data are used for electron fluxes precipitating into the upper atmosphere. The trapped and precipitating electron fluxes are qualitatively analysed to understand their variation in relation to each other and to the magnetic cloud rotation during these events. Inner magnetospheric wave activity was also estimated using RBSP and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data. In each event, the largest changes in the location and magnitude of both the trapped and precipitating electron fluxes occurred during the southward portion of the magnetic cloud. Significant changes also occurred during the end of the sheath and at the sheath–ejecta boundary for the cloud with south to north magnetic field rotation, while the ICME with north to south rotation had significant changes at the end boundary of the cloud. The sense of rotation of BZ and its profile also clearly affects the coherence of the trapped and/or precipitating flux changes, timing of variations with respect to the ICME structures, and flux magnitude of different electron populations. The differing electron responses could therefore imply partly different dominant acceleration mechanisms acting on the outer radiation belt electron populations as a result of opposite magnetic cloud rotation.

Description: In this paper, we quantify the CO2 and N2O emissions from denitrification over the Amazonian wetlands. The study concerns the entire Amazonian wetland ecosystem with a specific focus on three floodplain (FP) locations: the Branco FP, the Madeira FP and the FP alongside the Amazon River. We adapted a simple denitrification model to the case of tropical wetlands and forced it by open water surface extent products from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite. A priori model parameters were provided by in situ observations and gauging stations from the HYBAM Observatory. Our results show that the denitrification and the trace gas emissions present a strong cyclic pattern linked to the inundation processes that can be divided into three distinct phases: activation, stabilization and deactivation. We quantify the average yearly denitrification and associated emissions of CO2 and N2O over the entire watershed at 17.8 kgN ha−1 yr−1, 0.37 gC-CO2 m−2 yr−1 and 0.18 gN-N2O m−2 yr−1 respectively for the period 2011–2015. When compared to local observations, it was found that the CO2 emissions accounted for 0.01 % of the integrated ecosystem, which emphasizes the fact that minor changes to the land cover may induce strong impacts on the Amazonian carbon budget. Our results are consistent with the state of the art of global nitrogen models with a positive bias of 28 %. When compared to other wetlands in different pedoclimatic environments we found that the Amazonian wetlands have similar emissions of N2O with the Congo tropical wetlands and lower emissions than the temperate and tropical anthropogenic wetlands of the Garonne (France), the Rhine (Europe) and south-eastern Asia rice paddies. In summary our paper shows that a data-model-based approach can be successfully applied to quantify N2O and CO2 fluxes associated with denitrification over the Amazon basin. In the future, the use of higher-resolution remote sensing products from sensor fusion or new sensors like the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will permit the transposition of the approach to other large-scale watersheds in tropical environments.

Description: In the framework of the EU Copernicus programme, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the Joint Research Centre (JRC) is forecasting daily fire weather indices using its medium-range ensemble prediction system. The use of weather forecasts in place of local observations can extend early warnings by up to 1–2 weeks, allowing for greater proactive coordination of resource-sharing and mobilization within and across countries. Using 1 year of pre-operational service in 2017 and the Fire Weather Index (FWI), here we assess the capability of the system globally and analyse in detail three major events in Chile, Portugal and California. The analysis shows that the skill provided by the ensemble forecast system extends to more than 10 d when compared to the use of mean climate, making a case for extending the forecast range to the sub-seasonal to seasonal timescale. However, accurate FWI prediction does not translate into accuracy in the forecast of fire activity globally. Indeed, when all fires detected in 2017 are considered, including agricultural- and human-induced burning, high FWI values only occur in 50 % of the cases and are limited to the Boreal regions. Nevertheless for very large events which were driven by weather conditions, FWI forecasts provide advance warning that could be instrumental in setting up management and containment strategies.

Description: North African dust reaches the southeastern United States every summer. Size-resolved dust mass measurements taken in Miami, Florida, indicate that more than one-half of the surface dust mass concentrations reside in particles with geometric diameters less than 2.1 µm, while vertical profiles of micropulse lidar depolarization ratios show dust reaching above 4 km during pronounced events. These observations are compared to the representation of dust in the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) aerosol reanalysis and closely related Goddard Earth Observing System model version 5 (GEOS-5) Forward Processing (FP) aerosol product, both of which assimilate satellite-derived aerosol optical depths using a similar protocol and inputs. These capture the day-to-day variability in aerosol optical depth well, in a comparison to an independent sun-photometer-derived aerosol optical depth dataset. Most of the modeled dust mass resides in diameters between 2 and 6 µm, in contrast to the measurements. Model-specified mass extinction efficiencies equate light extinction with approximately 3 times as much aerosol mass, in this size range, compared to the measured dust sizes. GEOS-5 FP surface-layer sea salt mass concentrations greatly exceed observed values, despite realistic winds and relative humidities. In combination, these observations help explain why, despite realistic total aerosol optical depths, (1) free-tropospheric model volume extinction coefficients are lower than those retrieved from the micro-pulse lidar, suggesting too-low model dust loadings in the free troposphere, and (2) model dust mass concentrations near the surface can be higher than those measured. The modeled vertical distribution of dust, when captured, is reasonable. Large, aspherical particles exceeding the modeled dust sizes are also occasionally present, but dust particles with diameters exceeding 10 µm contribute little to the measured total dust mass concentrations after such long-range transport. Remaining uncertainties warrant a further integrated assessment to confirm this study's interpretations.

Description: The impact of a hexamethyldisiloxane (HMDSO) treatment on the response of doped SnO2 sensors is investigated for acetone, carbon monoxide and hydrogen. The sensor was operated in temperature cycles based on the DSR concept (differential surface reduction). According to this concept, the rate constants for the reduction and oxidation of the surface after fast temperature changes can be evaluated and used for quantification of reducing gases as well as quantification and compensation of sensor poisoning by siloxanes, which is shown in this work. Increasing HMDSO exposure reduces the rate constants and therefore the sensitivity of the sensor more and more for all processes. On the other hand, while the rate constants for acetone and carbon monoxide are reduced nearly to zero already for short treatments, the hydrogen sensitivity remains fairly stable, which greatly increases the selectivity. During repeated HMDSO treatment the quasistatic sensitivity, i.e. equilibrium sensitivity at one point during the temperature cycle, rises at first for all gases but then drops rapidly for acetone and carbon monoxide, which can also be explained by reduced rate constants for oxygen chemisorption on the sensor surface when considering the generation of surface charge.

Description: Anaerobic nitrate-dependent Fe(II) oxidation (NDFeO) is widespread in various aquatic environments and plays a major role in iron and nitrogen redox dynamics. However, evidence for truly enzymatic, autotrophic NDFeO remains limited, with alternative explanations involving the coupling of heterotrophic denitrification with the abiotic oxidation of structurally bound or aqueous Fe(II) by reactive intermediate nitrogen (N) species (chemodenitrification). The extent to which chemodenitrification is caused (or enhanced) by ex vivo surface catalytic effects has not been directly tested to date. To determine whether the presence of either an Fe(II)-bearing mineral or dead biomass (DB) catalyses chemodenitrification, two different sets of anoxic batch experiments were conducted: 2 mM Fe(II) was added to a low-phosphate medium, resulting in the precipitation of vivianite (Fe3(PO4)2), to which 2 mM nitrite (NO2-) was later added, with or without an autoclaved cell suspension (∼1.96×108 cells mL−1) of Shewanella oneidensis MR-1. Concentrations of nitrite (NO2-), nitrous oxide (N2O), and iron (Fe2+, Fetot) were monitored over time in both set-ups to assess the impact of Fe(II) minerals and/or DB as catalysts of chemodenitrification. In addition, the natural-abundance isotope ratios of NO2- and N2O (δ15N and δ18O) were analysed to constrain the associated isotope effects. Up to 90 % of the Fe(II) was oxidized in the presence of DB, whereas only ∼65 % of the Fe(II) was oxidized under mineral-only conditions, suggesting an overall lower reactivity of the mineral-only set-up. Similarly, the average NO2- reduction rate in the mineral-only experiments (0.004±0.003 mmol L−1 d−1) was much lower than in the experiments with both mineral and DB (0.053±0.013 mmol L−1 d−1), as was N2O production (204.02±60.29 nmol L−1 d−1). The N2O yield per mole NO2- reduced was higher in the mineral-only set-ups (4 %) than in the experiments with DB (1 %), suggesting the catalysis-dependent differential formation of NO. N-NO2- isotope ratio measurements indicated a clear difference between both experimental conditions: in contrast to the marked 15N isotope enrichment during active NO2- reduction (15εNO2=+10.3 ‰) observed in the presence of DB, NO2- loss in the mineral-only experiments exhibited only a small N isotope effect (

Description: The Mediterranean (MED) Basin is a climate change hotspot that has seen drying and a pronounced increase in heatwaves over the last century. At the same time, it is experiencing increased heavy precipitation during wintertime cold spells. Understanding and quantifying the risks from compound events over the MED is paramount for present and future disaster risk reduction measures. Here, we apply a novel method to study compound events based on dynamical systems theory and analyse compound temperature and precipitation events over the MED from 1979 to 2018. The dynamical systems analysis quantifies the strength of the coupling between different atmospheric variables over the MED. Further, we consider compound warm–dry anomalies in summer and cold–wet anomalies in winter. Our results show that these warm–dry and cold–wet compound days are associated with large values of the temperature–precipitation coupling parameter of the dynamical systems analysis. This indicates that there is a strong interaction between temperature and precipitation during compound events. In winter, we find no significant trend in the coupling between temperature and precipitation. However in summer, we find a significant upward trend which is likely driven by a stronger coupling during warm and dry days. Thermodynamic processes associated with long-term MED warming can best explain the trend, which intensifies compound warm–dry events.

Description: A 42-year sequence (1976–2017) of Scots pine tree diameter measurements using band dendrometers at the Aukštaitija National Park (Lithuania) study site was analysed. We have evaluated the intra- and inter annual growth dynamics of tree’s diameters and their response to meteorological forcing, as well as the long-term annual and monthly growth-rate changes in tree diameter in the study area. On average, the largest tree-diameter growth was found to have taken place during the month of June (35% of the annual increase). After June 24, the diameter growth rate decreased very strongly. The pine growth in May and August was mostly affected by the temperature of the previous month. The precipitation amount was the main driver that determined tree growth in June‒August. Heavy precipitation events had the largest impact on short-term tree-diameter increases. As a consequence of air temperature rise, we have determined the largest positive Scots pine tree diameter growth-rate changes in May and June during the period from 1976 to 2017.

Description: Anhand von sedimentologischen und geländemorphologischen Untersuchungen wird die Abschmelzgeschichte des südöstlichen Chiemsee-Gletschers beschrieben. Mit dem Trockenfallen der Bad Adelholzen-Erlstätter Rinne im Verlaufe des Spätwürm entwickelt sich aus dem Abschmelzen des Eislappens in der Grabenstätter Bucht eine sich ständig tiefer legende konzentrische Abfolge von zunächst peripheren Entwässerungsrinnen, wobei die ältesten Rinnen dieser Phase bei Chieming, die jüngeren dann entsprechend weiter im Süden, in die zentripetale Richtung umschwenken. Die Entstehung des Tüttensee-Komplexes ist im Kontext dieser Entwicklung zu sehen. Er ist das Ergebnis der glazifluvialen und glazilakustrinen Sedimentation im Einflussbereich des sukzessiven Eisabbaus in der Grabenstätter Bucht in Kombination mit einer Toteisbildung im Bereich des heutigen Tüttensees. Dafür sprechen die stufenartige Abfolge der beschriebenen peripheren Abflussrinnen mit ihren immer tiefer liegenden Abflussniveaus, die Höhengleichheit von drei dieser Rinnen mit den Tüttensee-Terrassen sowie die für die jeweilige Terrassenentstehung typische glazifluviale bzw. delta-artige Sedimentstruktur und -reife. Dieses Ergebnis stellt ein Korrektiv zur Hypothese des Chiemgau-Impakts dar, wonach der Tüttensee ein Impaktkrater sein soll. Da diese nun falsifizierte Annahme vor allem im deutschsprachigen Raum von zahlreichen Medien propagiert wird, ist der folgende Artikel auf Deutsch verfasst, um einer breiten Leserschaft zugänglich zu sein.

Description: Temperature appears to be the best predictor of species composition of planktonic foraminifera communities, making it possible to use their fossil assemblages to reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) variation in the past. However, the role of other environmental factors potentially modulating the spatial and vertical distribution of planktonic foraminifera species is poorly understood. This is especially relevant for environmental factors affecting the subsurface habitat. If such factors play a role, changes in the abundance of subsurface-dwelling species may not solely reflect SST variation. In order to constrain the effect of subsurface parameters on species composition, we here characterize the vertical distribution of living planktonic foraminifera community across an east–west transect through the subtropical South Atlantic Ocean, where SST variability was small, but the subsurface water mass structure changed dramatically. Four planktonic foraminifera communities could be identified across the top 700 m of the transect. Gyre and Agulhas Leakage surface faunas were predominantly composed of Globigerinoides ruber, Globigerinoides tenellus, Trilobatus sacculifer, Globoturborotalita rubescens, Globigerinella calida, Tenuitella iota, and Globigerinita glutinata, and these only differed in terms of relative abundances (community composition). Upwelling fauna was dominated by Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, Neogloboquadrina incompta, Globorotalia crassaformis, and Globorotalia inflata. Thermocline fauna was dominated by Tenuitella fleisheri, Globorotalia truncatulinoides, and Globorotalia scitula in the west and by G. scitula only in the east. The largest part of the standing stock was consistently found in the surface layer, but SST was not the main predictor of species composition either for the depth-integrated fauna across the stations or at individual depth layers. Instead, we identified a pattern of vertical stacking of different parameters controlling species composition, reflecting different aspects of the pelagic habitat. Whereas productivity appears to dominate in the mixed layer (0–60 m), physical properties (temperature, salinity) become important at intermediate depths and in the subsurface, a complex combination of factors including oxygen concentration is required to explain the assemblage composition. These results indicate that the seemingly straightforward relationship between assemblage composition and SST in sedimentary assemblages reflects vertically and seasonally integrated processes that are only indirectly linked to SST. It also implies that fossil assemblages of planktonic foraminifera should also contain a signature of subsurface processes, which could be used for paleoceanographic reconstructions.

Description: Light-use efficiency defines the ability of primary producers to convert sunlight energy to primary production and is computed as the ratio between the gross primary production and the intercepted photosynthetic active radiation. While this measure has been applied broadly within terrestrial ecology to investigate habitat resource-use efficiency, it remains underused within the aquatic realm. This report provides a conceptual framework to compute hourly and daily light-use efficiency using underwater O2 eddy covariance, a recent technological development that produces habitat-scale rates of primary production under unaltered in situ conditions. The analysis, tested on two benthic flux datasets, documents that hourly light-use efficiency may approach the theoretical limit of 0.125 O2 per photon under low-light conditions, but it decreases rapidly towards the middle of the day and is typically 10-fold lower on a 24 h basis. Overall, light-use efficiency provides a useful measure of habitat functioning and facilitates site comparison in time and space.

Description: Factors that limit the range expansion of introduced species can offer insights into the basic ecology of these species and inform conservation of associated endemic species. North American red squirrels (Tamiasciurus hudsonicus (Erxleben, 1777)) were recently introduced to the island of Newfoundland, Canada, where they have been implicated in the decline of two endemic bird subspecies. During the summers of 2016 (following conifer masting) and 2017 (following nonmasting), we conducted surveys with 1960 point counts and playback to assess red squirrel distribution and habitat use across a 257 km2 montane landscape in western Newfoundland. We used generalized additive models with stepwise model selection to assess the relationship between land cover and red squirrel occurrence each summer. Red squirrels were most common at low elevations and were not detected at elevations above ∼500 m. Their occurrence was negatively associated with the presence of water, coniferous scrub, and 10- to 30-year-old fir–spruce but positively associated with the presence of 30- to 70-year-old fir–spruce and 〉70-year-old fir. Red squirrel presence was related to more land cover variables in 2016, after a masting year. The absence of red squirrels from forests at higher elevations apparently resulted from lack of suitable habitat rather than incomplete range expansion. Climate- or silviculture-induced changes in vegetation may alter mid- and upper-elevation habitat suitability.

Description: Ditch network maintenance promotes forest growth in drained peatland forests but increases nutrient and sediment loads, which are detrimental to water quality. Society needs to balance the harvest revenue from improved forest growth against deteriorating water quality. We examine socially optimal even-aged forest management in drained peatlands when harvesting and ditch network maintenance cause nutrient and sediment loading. The means to reduce loading include establishing overland flow fields and abstaining from ditch network maintenance. We characterize this choice analytically in a rotation framework and examine, in a numerical model, the key factors affecting the choice of forest management and water protection measures. We choose a drained peatland forest site located in northeastern Finland in the vicinity of ecologically vulnerable forest headwater streams. On the given drained forest site, we find a set of parameters under which implementing ditch network maintenance is privately but not socially optimal.

Description: Marine boundary layer clouds, including the transition from stratocumulus to cumulus, are poorly represented in numerical weather prediction and general circulation models. Further uncertainties in the cloud structure arise in the presence of biomass burning carbonaceous aerosol, as is the case over the southeast Atlantic Ocean, where biomass burning aerosol is transported from the African continent. As the aerosol plume progresses across the southeast Atlantic Ocean, radiative heating within the aerosol layer has the potential to alter the thermodynamic environment and therefore the cloud structure; however, limited work has been done to quantify this along the trajectory of the aerosol plume in the region. The deployment of the first Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF1) in support of the Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds field campaign provided a unique opportunity to collect observations of cloud and aerosol properties during two consecutive biomass burning seasons during July through October of 2016 and 2017 over Ascension Island (7.96∘ S, 14.35∘ W). Using observed profiles of temperature, humidity, and clouds from the field campaign alongside aerosol optical properties from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), as input for the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (RRTM), profiles of the radiative heating rate due to aerosols and clouds were computed. Radiative heating is also assessed across the southeast Atlantic Ocean using an ensemble of back trajectories from the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. Idealized experiments using the RRTM with and without aerosols and a range of values for the single-scattering albedo (SSA) demonstrate that shortwave (SW) heating within the aerosol layer above Ascension Island can locally range between 2 and 8 K d−1 depending on the aerosol optical properties, though impacts of the aerosol can be felt elsewhere in the atmospheric column. When considered under clear conditions, the aerosol has a cooling effect at the TOA, and based on the observed cloud properties at Ascension Island, the cloud albedo is not large enough to overcome this. Shortwave radiative heating due to biomass burning aerosol is not balanced by additional longwave (LW) cooling, and the net radiative impact results in a stabilization of the lower troposphere. However, these results are extremely sensitive to the single-scattering albedo assumptions in models.

Description: Information on global cropland distribution and agricultural production is critical for the world's agricultural monitoring and food security. We present datasets of cropland extent and agricultural production in a two-paper series of a cultivated planet in 2010. In the first part, we propose a new Self-adapting Statistics Allocation Model (SASAM) to develop the global map of cropland distribution. SASAM is based on the fusion of multiple existing cropland maps and multilevel statistics of the cropland area, which is independent of training samples. First, cropland area statistics are used to rank the input cropland maps, and then a scoring table is built to indicate the agreement among the input datasets. Secondly, statistics are allocated adaptively to the pixels with higher agreement scores until the cumulative cropland area is close to the statistics. The multilevel allocation results are then integrated to obtain the extent of cropland. We applied SASAM to produce a global cropland synergy map with a 500 m spatial resolution for circa 2010. The accuracy assessments show that the synergy map has higher accuracy than the input datasets and better consistency with the cropland statistics. The synergy cropland map is available via an open-data repository (https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ZWSFAA; Lu et al., 2020). This new cropland map has been used as an essential input to the Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM) for producing the global dataset of agricultural production for circa 2010, which is described in the second part of the two-paper series.

Description: Shadow fractions can be overestimated because of topographic shadows, which can occupy a significant area on aerial photographs of mountainous terrain. In this study, we first used high-dynamic-range (HDR) image analysis techniques to extract the original canopy shadow from the topographic shadows on aerial photographs. Subsequently, we applied the shadow fraction method to estimate selected forest attributes (stand height, basal area, and stem volume). In this paper, we discuss the effects of tree shadow fraction normalization, auxiliary spectral information, and forest type on forest attribute estimation. HDR image analysis successfully extracted canopy shadow information from topographic shadows. The tree shadow fraction normalization method had no obvious effect. The shadow fraction enhanced spectral information to estimate stand attributes. Using shadow fractions resulted in better estimates of stand height for mixed-hardwood forest ([Formula: see text] = 0.45), basal area for mixed-hardwood forest ([Formula: see text] = 0.50), and stem volume for conifer–hardwood forest ([Formula: see text] = 0.43). This difference in estimated results is related to the shade patterns produced by stand structures in the different forest types.

Description: Forest supply chain planning must deal with many natural disturbance uncertainties such as fires, insects, and windthrow. One important consideration is wood infestation by invasive insects, as it causes environmental and economic harm. An example of invasive insects in Eastern Canada is the spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clemens)), which is the most destructive insect in North America’s conifer stands. In 2017, more than 5 million ha of forest were defoliated by spruce budworm in Quebec. Repeated defoliation causes tree mortality, reduction of growth rates, and reduced lumber quality. Consequently, different wood qualities with greatly varied values are found in the forest. Changes in the outbreak intensity impact wood values throughout the forest. One of the common actions to mitigate the economic and environmental damages is salvage harvesting. However, because of the large uncertainties and lack of detailed information, it is a difficult problem to model. We propose a multistage stochastic mixed-integer programming model for harvest scheduling under various outbreak intensities. The objective is to maximize revenues of wood value minus logistic costs while satisfying demand for wood in the industry. The results show that when there is an outbreak throughout the forest, the priority for salvage harvesting is to focus on forest areas with the lowest level of infestation.

Description: Simple sequence repeat (SSR) and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes on the same plant samples of Chrysolepis chrysophylla (Douglas ex Hook.) Hjelmq. (Fagaceae; golden chinquapin) from 22 sites were used to determine genetic diversity and population structure. One site of C. sempervirens (Kellogg) Hjelmq. allowed interspecific vs. intraspecific comparisons. SSRs and SNPs yielded many similar results. Among-site variation contributed 13% to 17% of the genetic variation and Fst estimates of 0.14 to 0.17 were in the range expected among Fagaceae species rather than among populations within a species. The northern sites tended to group separately on the first two axes of multivariate scatterplots from southern sites. Sites in two geographically isolated areas were divergent: (i) the Hood Canal, Washington population was relatively more genetically distant from other golden chinquapin sites than was our C. sempervirens site; (ii) three coastal southern California sites were moderately diverged. The Hood Canal site had a negative inbreeding coefficient, fewer alleles, lower heterozygosity, and differed from the Skamania County, Washington site as well as all other sites. Hood Canal trees are distinguished by disjunct geography and by these molecular results. This suggests that the golden chinquapin near Hood Canal be treated as a management unit, and potential conservation actions are discussed.

Description: The gravity model was used in this paper to clarify the influencing factors of the export value of non-timber forest products (NTFPs) for Vietnam from 2003 to 2017. The estimates of this model indicate the importance of the size of economies, distance, common borders, exchange rates, average forest area, natural forest closing (NFC) policy of the Vietnamese government, sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS), and the interaction of SPS and importers’ GDP (SPS-GDP) as determinants of NTFP export of Vietnam. The main result of this study is the distinct and contradictory effect of NFC policy and SPS measures. While, the NFC policy increase the value of Vietnam's NTFP exports, SPS measures significantly decrease the exportation. Using the SPS-GDP interaction variable yields a noticeable result: the negative impact of SPS on NTFP trade decreases with increasing income of NTFP importers. Furthermore, the NFC needs to continue to implement policies to increase investments in the NTFPs trade, increase the quality of NTFP products from planting, harvesting, to processing, to meet the requirements of future importers. The findings offer several implications both in theory and in practice for trade policies, economic development theory based on Vietnam's forest resources.

Description: Because of their rapid maneuverability, extended operational range, and improved personnel safety, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) with vision-based systems have great potential for monitoring, detecting, and fighting forest fires. Over the last decade, UAV-based forest fire fighting technology has shown increasing promise. This paper presents a systematic overview of current progress in this field. First, a brief review of the development and system architecture of UAV systems for forest fire monitoring, detection, and fighting is provided. Next, technologies related to UAV forest fire monitoring, detection, and fighting are briefly reviewed, including those associated with fire detection, diagnosis, and prognosis, image vibration elimination, and cooperative control of UAVs. The final section outlines existing challenges and potential solutions in the application of UAVs to forest firefighting.

Description: Net CO2 assimilation (AN) is an important physiological indicator that reflects the photosynthetic capacity. The seasonal and spatial variations of AN play an important role in carbon uptake simulations, especially for trees. To gain a clearer understanding of the state of the branch carbon balance, it is necessary to more carefully evaluate the dynamic variation of AN over different gradients in the crown during the growing season. Gas exchange, leaf temperature (Tleaf), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), leaf mass per area (LMA), and relative depth into crown (RDINC) were measured throughout the growing season of planted Larix olgensis A. Henry trees. A semi-empirical model for predicting multilayered crown AN was established by incorporating Tleaf, VPD, LMA, RDINC, and their combinations into a photosynthetic light response (PLR) curve model using re-parameterization. The model was assessed based on goodness of fit (adjusted coefficient of determination ([Formula: see text]), root mean square error (RMSE), and Akaike’s information criterion (AIC)) and on the validation results (mean error (ME), mean absolute error (MAE), precision estimation (P)) and performed well. The multilayered predicted model of crown AN lays the foundation for calculating the multilayered photosynthetic production within the crown and determining the range of the functional crown for individual trees.

Description: Boreal peatlands in Canada comprise a substantial store of soil organic carbon (peat), and this peat is vulnerable to extensive burning during periods of extended drying. Increased frequency of extreme weather events in boreal regions is expected with future climate change, and the conditions that would support sustained smouldering peat combustion within peatlands may be more common. Organic soils tend to burn by smouldering combustion, a very slow-moving process in fuels such as those found in peatlands. Thus the most extreme conditions for carbon loss to the atmosphere due to the burning of peat likely occur when widespread propagation of flaming combustion leads to widespread initiation of smouldering. To investigate the potential for large-scale, high-intensity fire spread across forested bogs, we examined the fuel conditions in forested bogs necessary to support active crown fire. We measured surface and canopy fine fuels (those available to contribute to the propagating energy flux of the main flaming front) across a postfire chronosequence of forested boreal bog from central Alberta, Canada. We found that fuel load of fine surface material remained relatively constant across the chronosequence and at levels large enough to support crown fire initiation. Black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) regeneration begins to fill in the crown space with increasing time since disturbance and achieves crown bulk densities similar to black spruce upland forests. We estimated that after about 80 years, the black spruce canopy has developed enough available fuel to support active crown fire on between 10% to 40% of days in a typical fire season in central Alberta, Canada. Broad-scale propagation of high-intensity fire across a peatland when coincident with drought-induced lower moisture in deep peatland layers has the potential to lead to a substantial release of stored terrestrial carbon.

Description: Understanding patterns of aboveground carbon storage across forest types is increasingly important as managers adapt to threats of global change. We combined field measures of aboveground biomass with lidar to model fine-scale biomass in deciduous forests located in two watersheds; one watershed was underlain by sandstone and the other by shale. We measured tree and shrub biomass across three topographic positions for both watersheds and analyzed biomass using mixed models. The watershed underlain by shale had 60% more aboveground biomass than the sandstone watershed. Although spatial patterns of biomass were different across watersheds, both had higher (between about 40% and 55%) biomass values at the toe-slope position than at the ridge-top position. To model fine-scale spatial patterns of biomass, we tested the effectiveness of leaf-on and leaf-off lidar combined with topographic metrics to develop a spatially explicit random forest model of tree and shrub biomass across both watersheds. Leaf-on variables were more important for modeling shrub biomass, while leaf-off variables were more effective at modeling tree biomass. Our model of tree and shrub biomass reflects the distribution of biomass across both watersheds at a fine scale and highlights the potential of abiotic factors such as topography and bedrock to affect carbon storage.

Description: The pine-wood nematode, Bursaphelenchusxylophilus (Steiner and Buhrer), was most commonly extracted from Cerambycidae emerging from nematode-infested pines in Minnesota and Wisconsin during 1981 and 1982. The greatest number of nematodes were extracted from Monochamusscutellatus (Say) and Monochamuscarolinensis (Olivier). Low numbers of B. xylophilus were found in some buprestids but no nematodes were found in the curulionid and scolytid beetles examined. Two species of Cerambycidae, Monochamusmannorator (Kiby.) and M. scutellatus were associated with B. xylophilus from balsam fir in Minnesota. Bursaphelenchusxylophilus from insects associated with balsam fir were morphologically different from insects associated with pine. Dauer larvae of B. xylophilus were concentrated in the thoracic segments of M. scutellatus and Monochamusmutator (Lec.) examined. Bursaphelenchusxylophilus was transmitted to twigs during maturation feeding and to logs during oviposition by M. carolinensis, M. mutator, and M. scutellatus.

Description: Resource development can have significant consequences for the distribution of vegetation cover and for species persistence. Modelling changes to anthropogenic disturbance regimes over time can provide profound insights into the mechanisms that drive land cover change. We analyzed the spatial patterns of anthropogenic disturbance before and after a period of significant oil and gas extraction in two boreal forest subregions in Alberta, Canada. A spatially explicit model was used to map levels of anthropogenic forest crown mortality across 700 000 ha of managed forest over a 60-year period. The anthropogenic disturbance regime varied both spatially and temporally and was outside the historical range of variability characterized by regional fire regimes. Levels of live forest crown within anthropogenic disturbances declined and edge density increased following oil and gas development, whereas patch size varied regionally. In some places, anthropogenic disturbance generated profoundly novel landscapes with spatial patterns that had no historical analogue in the boreal system. The results illustrate that a shift in one sector of the economy can have dramatic outcomes on landscape structure. The results also suggest that any efforts to better align cumulative anthropogenic disturbance patterns with the historic baseline will almost certainly require a concerted and collaborative effort from all of the major stakeholders.

Description: Alnusrubra Bong, dominates the first 65 – 80 years of a sere that is initiated naturally on the terraces of the Hoh River. Stands of 14, 24, and 65 years were studied to determine to what extent the Alnus stage enriched the nitrogen inventory of the site. Bare sandbars deposited by the river had a mean of 783 kg/ha nitrogen. Alnus communities caused an increase in the nitrogen inventory so that, by 65 years, total community nitrogen was 4659 kg/ha, soils held 3594 kg/ha N in the upper 45 cm, and Alnus trees held 942 kg/ha N. The nitrogen contents of the soil, Alnus wood, bark, and branches, grasses, total aboveground biomass, total belowground biomass, and sticks less than 1 cm diameter all showed significant increases from 14 to 65 years. The A. rubra stage is an important link in the nutrient inventory between unvegetated, recently deposited sandbars and the climax coniferous forests dominated by Tsugaheterophylla (Raf.) Sarg. and Piceasitchensis (Bong.) Carr.

Description: In many recent studies, the value of forest inventory information in harvest scheduling has been examined. In a previous paper, we demonstrated that making measurement decisions for stands for which the harvest decision is uncertain simultaneously with the harvest decisions may be highly profitable. In that study, the quality of additional measurements was not a decision variable, and the only options were between making no measurements or measuring perfect information. In this study, we introduce data quality into the decision problem, i.e., the decisionmaker can select between making imperfect or perfect measurements. The imperfect information is obtained with a specific scenario tree formulation. Our decision problem includes three types of decisions: harvest decisions, measurement decisions, and decisions about measurement quality. In addition, the timing of the harvests and measurements must be decided. These decisions are evaluated based on two objectives: discounted aggregate income for the planning periods and the end value of the forest at the end of the planning horizon. Solving the bi-objective optimization problem formed using the ε-constraint method showed that imperfect information was mostly sufficient for the harvest timing decisions during the planning horizon but perfect information was required to meet the end-value constraint. The relative importance of the two objectives affects the measurements indirectly by increasing or decreasing the number of certain decisions (i.e., situations in which the optimal decision is identical in all scenarios).

Description: Forest management, characterized in many northern countries by the predominance of clear cutting and growing even-aged and -sized trees, has simplified the structure of boreal forests. Consequences include alterations in cultural ecosystem services such as forest attractiveness, i.e., combined aesthetic and recreational values. Continuous-cover forestry might mitigate these effects through the use of selection and gap cutting, but these methods have been little studied, particularly from the attractiveness viewpoint. We used photo surveys to assess Finnish citizens’ perceptions of attractiveness of in-stand scenery of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests logged using different methods. (i) The attractiveness scores, given by respondents, declined steadily from unharvested forest through continuous-cover methods to seed-tree and clear-cut methods. (ii) Respondents with a negative attitude to forest management gave lower scores than respondents with a positive attitude, but the declining slopes of attractiveness against logging intensity were similar. (iii) In unharvested and less intensively managed stands, summer photos received higher scores than corresponding winter photos. (iv) Background variables (gender, education, living environment, memberships in recreational or nature NGOs, forestry profession, and forest ownership) had negligible effects on the scores. We recommend the use of continuous-cover logging methods in settlement and recreational areas.

Description: The contribution of forest biomass to Canada’s energy production is small but growing. As the forest bioenergy industry in Canada expands, there is growing interest in more sustainably managing the wood ash that is generated as a by-product. Despite being rich in nutrients, wood ash is usually landfilled in Canada. Soil applications of ash in Canadian forests could be used to mimic some of the effects of wildfire, to replace nutrients removed during harvesting, to counteract the negative effects of acid deposition, and to improve tree growth. At present, the provincial and territorial processes for obtaining regulatory approval to use wood ash as a forest soil amendment can be challenging to navigate. Furthermore, the costs for obtaining approval and transporting and applying wood ash to the soil can render landfilling a more cost-effective method of ash management. To ensure that wood ash applications in Canadian forests are conducted safely, effectively, and efficiently, experience from European countries could provide a useful starting point for developing best practices. The results of Canadian research trials will assist policy makers and forest managers in refining management guidelines that encourage soil applications of wood ash as a forest management tool while protecting the ecology, water quality, biodiversity, and productivity of Canadian forests.

Description: Genetic variation and population structure in biomass yield and coppice growth traits were assessed in seven native North American willow species (Salix amygdaloides (AMY), Salix bebbiana (BEB), Salix discolor (DIS), Salix eriocephala (ERI), Salix humilis (HUM), Salix interior (INT), and Salix nigra (NIG)) established together in common-garden field tests on two sites. Differences in biomass yield, coppice stem number, and average single-stem mass were significant at the site, species, population, and genotype (clonal) levels. There were also species × site interactions. Analyses of variance components for these traits showed that only 3%–5% of the total variation in these traits was due to site differences, whereas genetic variation at the species, population, and genotype levels accounted for approximately 10%–39%, 5%–13%, and 12%–23%, respectively. Populations were a significant source of variation in some willow species (e.g., AMY, DIS, ERI, and INT) but not in other species. Tree willows were less prolific in stem sprout production than shrub willows, and ERI coppices produced by far the highest number of stem sprouts per coppice. This multispecies investigation demonstrated strong species and clonal differences, but variation among populations within a species, although significant, was relatively small, indicating that major growth and yield gains can be made through proper species selection and clonal selection within local populations.

Description: The world’s forests are highly fragmented by linear disturbances, and many forests have failed to recover decades after abandonment. Lack of recovery is common in unproductive forests, such as treed peatlands, because of conditions that limit tree growth, including simplification of microtopography (loss of microsites). The persistence of these features affects biodiversity, but of particular concern in Canada is the detrimental effects on threatened woodland caribou. Although natural regeneration of trees in peatlands occurs in some places, it is not an effective recovery strategy for restoring the habitat of woodland caribou. This has led to restoration activities with costs exceeding CAD$12 500/km. However, current restoration does not consider wildfires, which can destroy planted trees but also initiate early seral conditions that favor natural regeneration. Here we compared tree regeneration on seismic lines and adjacent forest controls for burnt (75 sites) and unburnt (68 sites) treed peatlands in northeast Alberta, Canada. Tree regeneration (stems with a DBH 〈 1 cm/ha) varied from 28 500 in burnt lines, 11 440 in unburnt lines, and 18 210 in burnt forest, to 9520 in unburnt forest. Wildfires promoted denser regeneration in sites with a greater proportion of serotinous species and water table depth. Microtopography and terrain wetness explained regeneration on burnt lines, but not unburnt lines. In burnt and unburnt lines, sunlight, microtopography, and depth of water table most affected tree regeneration patterns.

Description: Because of the very high complexity of modern optimization models based on single trees, uncertainties are often disregarded. In this study, we present a modelling approach that allows partial harvesting but is still simple enough to consider risk. Our modelling approach investigates whether the inclusion of timber price uncertainty influences the harvesting schedule. The model considers positive growth response to the density reduction that follows harvesting. Testing the impact of uncertainty, we define the discounted net revenues of each harvest operation as random variables. We compare harvest scheduling both with and without the inclusion of uncertainty. We first model growth response based on a partial-harvest schedule, without integrating uncertainty from timber price fluctuations. The results show that harvesting tree cohorts at different times is financially optimal. We run the same model again, including the risk of timber price fluctuations. The inclusion of risk leads to slightly greater differences in recommended harvest timings. Because of the small difference observed, we conclude that it is unlikely that risk arising from fluctuating timber prices would strongly affect the results for more complex forest economic models concerning the optimal harvest schedules.

Description: Bud burst is one of the most observable phenological stages in tree species, and its responses to environmental factors are found to be species-specific. Nevertheless, for dioecious plants, whether the bud burst responses are sex specific remains an open question, as do the underlying physiological mechanisms. Here, we investigated the effect of elevated temperature (+2 °C) and drought (30% field capacity) during December–March on bud development, gas exchange, water and nitrogen status, and carbohydrate metabolism in female and male Populus cathayana to understand how nongrowing season warming and drought modifies physiological and phenological traits. Our results showed that at ambient temperature, males experienced earlier bud burst than females. Winter warming significantly delayed bud burst and even synchronized it for both sexes because of the greater responsiveness of males. Although drought exerted little effect on the timing of bud burst, it significantly reduced bud fresh mass and limited bud growth by decreasing gas exchange capacity and nonstructural carbohydrate (NSC) accumulation; moreover, females were more affected by drought stress. The significant sex × watering × temperature interactions for δ13C and NSC indicate that sexual dimorphism in these condition-specific traits would increase along the environmental gradients, implying contrasting life history strategies in different ecological scenarios. The convergence in the time for bud burst caused by elevated temperature might exaggerate the competition among males, thus influencing the sex ratio, structure, and functioning of P. cathayana populations.

Description: This study considered airborne laser scanning (ALS) based aboveground biomass (AGB) prediction in mountain forests. The study area consisted of a long transect from southern Norway to northern parts of the country with wide ranges of elevation along a long latitudinal gradient (58°N–69°N). This transect was covered by ALS data and field data from 238 plots. AGB was modeled using different types of predictor variables, namely ALS metrics, variables related to growing conditions (elevation, latitude, and climatic variables), and tree species information. Modelling of AGB in the long transect covering diverse mountainous forest conditions was challenging: the RMSE values were rather large (37%–70%). The effects of growing conditions on model predictions were minor. However, species information was essential to improve accuracy. The analysis revealed that when doing inventories of spruce-dominated areas, all plots should be pooled together when the models are developed, whereas if pine or deciduous species dominate the area in question, separate dominant species-wise models should be constructed.

Description: The impact of root water uptake on duff (both fibric and humic horizons) moisture was investigated at deciduous, mixedwood, and conifer stands in Ontario, Canada. Roots were actively excluded from the duff layer using geotextiles inserted at the duff–mineral soil interface and along the plot edges; liquid and vapour water flow was otherwise not affected by the geotextiles. Root exclusion caused little difference in duff moisture content prior to early June, after which the root exclusion plots remained at 15%–20% volumetric water content, whereas root-intact plots declined to as low as 5% volumetric water content during rain-free periods. Only in the root-intact plots did the duff water content reach sufficiently low levels that duff evaporation was limited by low water content. The net effect of root exclusion was to reduce the cumulative growing season water loss in the duff by 19%–31%, depending on the stand type. Root exclusion also decreased the number of days with a high probability of duff smouldering from as many as 72 days·year−1 to as few as 0 days·year−1. This root exclusion experiment provides a model for short-term duff moisture transitions under thinned forests such as those forests under community wildfire protection.

Description: Flooding for 30 days induced several changes in Quercusmacrocarpa Michx. seedlings, with stomatal closure among the earliest responses. Stomata remained more closed in flooded than in unflooded plants during the entire experimental period. Leaf water potential was consistently higher in flooded than in unflooded plants. Other responses to flooding included acceleration of ethylene production by stems; formation of hypertrophied lenticels on submerged portions of stems; growth inhibition, with greatest reduction in roots; and formation of a few adventitious roots on submerged portions of the stem above the soil line. Some of the morphological responses to flooding, especially formation of hypertrophied lenticels, appeared to be associated with increased ethylene production. Quercusmacrocarpa seedlings adapted poorly to flooding as shown by failure of stomata to reopen after an early period of flooding and low capacity for production of adventitious roots. The much greater inhibition of root growth than shoot growth by flooding will reduce drought tolerance after floodwaters recede.

Description: As part of the development of the 2011 National Land Cover Database (NLCD) tree canopy cover layer, a pilot project was launched to test the use of high-resolution photography coupled with extensive ancillary data to map the distribution of tree canopy cover over four study regions in the conterminous US. Two stochastic modeling techniques, random forests (RF) and stochastic gradient boosting (SGB), are compared. The objectives of this study were first to explore the sensitivity of RF and SGB to choices in tuning parameters and, second, to compare the performance of the two final models by assessing the importance of, and interaction between, predictor variables, the global accuracy metrics derived from an independent test set, as well as the visual quality of the resultant maps of tree canopy cover. The predictive accuracy of RF and SGB was remarkably similar on all four of our pilot regions. In all four study regions, the independent test set mean squared error (MSE) was identical to three decimal places, with the largest difference in Kansas where RF gave an MSE of 0.0113 and SGB gave an MSE of 0.0117. With correlated predictor variables, SGB had a tendency to concentrate variable importance in fewer variables, whereas RF tended to spread importance among more variables. RF is simpler to implement than SGB, as RF has fewer parameters needing tuning and also was less sensitive to these parameters. As stochastic techniques, both RF and SGB introduce a new component of uncertainty: repeated model runs will potentially result in different final predictions. We demonstrate how RF allows the production of a spatially explicit map of this stochastic uncertainty of the final model.

Description: Once dominant across the United States (US) Southeastern Coastal Plain, the longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) ecosystem covers a fraction of its historic geographic range. Restoration efforts have largely occurred on public lands, while most private forests feature alternative pine species. A better understanding of public interest in ecological restoration is critical to sustained efforts and successes. This research examines both forest landowner and general public interest in longleaf pine restoration. Results contribute to research on the social dimensions of ecological restoration, much of which has focused on small-scale projects rather than landscape-scale initiatives. In addition, this study addresses the lack of knowledge regarding factors driving attitudes towards ecological restoration other than demographic and psychometric variables. We employed a telephone survey of 2700 participants across eight states in the southeastern US in the historical range of longleaf pine. A majority of respondents supported restoration as a general goal and were supportive of the use of prescribed fire as a restoration practice. Place attachment, knowledge about longleaf pine, and age were among the significant predictors of restoration support. Findings have implications for future research focusing on sociocultural influences of restoration projects, as well as expanded public support for restoration of fire-maintained ecosystems.

Description: Trees form the terrestrial interface with the atmosphere in forested regions. The electrical properties of trees may influence their response to atmospheric conditions and potentially lethal phenomena (e.g., lightning). We review the literature describing electrical properties of trees and provide a tabular summary of the methods and goals of each study. We hypothesized that electrical resistivity varies consistently among species and between growth forms. We surveyed resistivity of eight tree and three vine species in Michigan and Kentucky, and we quantified resistivity over a moisture gradient for wood blocks of four tree species. Resistivity varied predictably with stem diameter and differed among species and growth forms. Specifically, resistivity of trees was approximately 200% higher than resistivity of vines, and resistivity of conifers was 135% higher than that of hardwoods. The regional comparison showed no difference in resistivity of red maple (Acer rubrum L.) and sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) between Michigan and Kentucky. These results, in combination with interspecific differences observed among wood blocks, suggest that there is a phylogenetic basis for variation in resistivity that reflects differences in anatomy and physiology. Our review and empirical survey provide a framework for studying the ecological effects of lightning in the context of the electrical properties of trees.

Description: Coarse woody debris (CWD) in the form of logs, downed wood, stumps and large tree limbs is an important structural habitat feature for many small mammal species, including the American marten (Martes americana). At a long-term experimental trial in northern temperate hemlock-cedar forests of British Columbia, Canada, we analysed the impact of varying amounts of overstory basal area retention: 0% (clearcut), 40%, 70%, and 100% (unharvested) on CWD volume, decay class, and inputs from windthrow over 27 years. We used CWD attributes (diameter, length, decay class, and height above the ground) known to be favourable for martens to create an index for assessing the impact of harvesting intensity on CWD habitat features. Stands with 70% retention had CWD attributes that resulted in CWD habitat features similar to unharvested stands. Clearcuts contained pieces that were smaller, more decayed, and closer to the ground, which contributed to a habitat that was less valuable, compared with stands that had higher retention. Over the 27-year period, windthrown trees were the majority of CWD inputs, and volume change was positively related to percent retention. Our results highlight that forest management influences CWD size and input dynamics over multiple decades, and the need for consideration of these impacts when undertaking long-term multiple-use forestry planning.

Description: The influence of forest ecology and strategic planning has increased in importance to support the management of mixed-species forests to enhance biodiversity. However, little is known about competitive and facilitative interactions between trees and species in mixed fir–beech–spruce forests, mostly because of a lack of long-term experimental research. In the 1960s, long-term sample plots were established in the Western Carpathians to develop region-specific yield models. Trees in the plots were measured at 5- to 16-year intervals from 1967(69). In 2010, the positions of standing trees in all plots were identified spatially. Stump positions were also identified to record the coordinates of trees that had been removed or had died. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the applicability of widely used competition indices for mature fir–beech–spruce mixed forests and to test whether the tree competition zone changes among species and forest stands of different stocking densities. Results showed that the best competition index was based on the comparison of the basal area of competitors and the subject tree in the radius, which was defined as a function of stand density and species. In addition, beech was found to be a strong self-competitor, which was not the case for silver fir (Abies alba Mill.). Results suggest that simpler competition indices are better suited for such diverse forests, as more complex indices do not describe the competition interactions sufficiently well.

Description: Wildfires, insect outbreaks, and windstorms are increasingly common forest disturbances. Post-disturbance management often involves salvage logging, i.e., the felling and removal of the affected trees; however, this practice may represent an additional disturbance with effects on ecosystem processes and services. We developed a systematic map to provide an overview of the primary studies on this topic and created a database with information on the characteristics of the retrieved publications, including information on stands, disturbance, intervention, measured outcomes, and study design. Of 4341 retrieved publications, 90 were retained in the systematic map. These publications represented 49 studies, predominantly from North America and Europe. Salvage logging after wildfire was addressed more frequently than after insect outbreaks or windstorms. Most studies addressed logging after a single disturbance event, and replication of salvaged stands rarely exceeded 10. The most frequent response variables were tree regeneration, ground cover, and deadwood characteristics. This document aims to help managers find the most relevant primary studies on the ecological effects of salvage logging. It also aims to identify and discuss clusters and gaps in the body of evidence, relevant for scientists who aim to synthesize previous work or identify questions for future studies.

Description: The parsimonious taper function proposed by Riemer et al. (1995. Allg. Forst.- Jagdztg. 166(7): 144–147) was fitted for radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) stems in Spain by using a nonlinear mixed modelling approach. Eight candidate models (all possible expansion combinations of the three fixed parameters with random effects) were assessed, and the mixed model with three random effects performed the best according to the goodness-of-fit statistics. An evaluation data set was used to assess the performance of these models in predicting stem diameter along the bole, as well as total stem volume. Four prediction approaches were compared: one subject (tree) specific (SS) and three population specific (ordinary least squares (OLS), mean (M), and population averaged (PA)). The SS responses for a tree were estimated from a prior stem diameter measurement available for that tree, whereas OLS, M, and PA were obtained from the fixed-effects model, from the fixed parameters of mixed-effects models, and by computing mean predictions from the mixed-effects models over the distribution of random effects, respectively. Prediction errors were greater for the M and PA responses than for the OLS response, and therefore, from the prediction point of view, the use of the mixed-effects models is not recommended when an additional stem diameter measurement is not available. The mixed model with three random effects was also selected as the best model for SS estimations. Measurement of an additional stem diameter at a relative tree height of approximately 0.5 provided the best calibrations for stem diameters along the bole and total stem volume predictions. The SS approach increased the flexibility and efficiency of the selected mixed-effects model for localized predictions and thus improved the overall predictive capacity of the base model.

Description: To better understand climatic origins of annual tree-growth anomalies in boreal forests, we analysed 895 black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) tree-growth series from 46 xeric sites situated along three latitudinal transects in Eastern Canada. We identified interannual (based on comparison with previous year growth) and multidecadal (based on the entire tree-ring width distribution) growth anomalies between 1901 and 2001 at site and transect levels. Growth anomalies occurred mainly at site level and seldom at larger spatial scales. Both positive interannual and multidecadal growth anomalies were strongly associated with below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation during the previous growing season (Junet–1 – Augustt–1). The climatic signature of negative interannual and multidecadal growth anomalies was more complex and mainly associated with current-year climatic anomalies. Between the early and late 20th century, only negative multidecadal anomalies became more frequent. Our results highlight the role of previous growing season climate in controlling tree growth processes and suggest a positive association between climate warming and increases in the frequency of negative multidecadal growth anomalies. Projected climate change may further favour the occurrence of tree-growth anomalies and enhance the role of site conditions as modifiers of tree response to regional climate change.

Description: A two-year field study was carried out to determine whether inoculating white spruce, Picea glauca (Moench) Voss, with a native endophytic fungus, Phialocephala scopiformis DAOM 229536 Kowalski & Kehr (Helotiales, Ascomycota), decreased the performance of eastern spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana Clemens, developing on these trees. Second instars were reared at three densities in the mid crown and at one density in the lower, mid, and upper crown. Larval survival (i.e., survival of larvae to pupation) was lower on endophyte-inoculated trees than on control trees in the mid crown and especially the upper crown but was similar in the lower crown, resulting in a significant interaction between endophyte and crown level. A similar but marginally insignificant interaction was observed for overall survival up to adult emergence (i.e., total survival). Larval survival and total survival were approximately 22% and 19% lower, respectively, when developing in the upper crown of endophyte-inoculated trees than in control trees. Larval survival remained relatively constant, with increased density on control trees but decreased with density on endophyte-inoculated trees, resulting in a significant interaction between endophyte and larval density. Sex ratios of emerged adults and wing lengths of emerged females were not influenced by the endophyte. Our results suggest that endophytic fungi could be useful additions to integrated pest management programs.

Description: Fire is an important disturbance agent in the boreal forests of China. The aggressive fire suppression policy of China since 1988 has resulted in a large financial investment in support of fire brigade capabilities and the maintenance of fire management infrastructure. We developed a spatially explicit burn probability (BP) model to evaluate the effectiveness of improved fire management in Daxing’anling, China. The BP model can emulate the burn probability of the forest landscape by simulating daily wildfire occurrences, spread, and suppression for simulated years. Two scenarios were used for fire simulations in this study. The base scenario used the infrastructure data and parameters of fire suppression capability from the 1968–1987 period, and the intensive scenario used the data and parameters from the 1988–2012 period. The simulated annual burned areas for 1968–2012 showed a fluctuating trend similar to the historical fire records. Compared with the base scenario, the burn probability decreased by 73.6% under the intensive scenario, which suggests that improved fire management could significantly reduce the burn probability. This study shows that the BP model can model the effects of fire management activities on the forest landscape level and evaluate the effectiveness of fire management strategies or management measures.

Description: The impact of climate change on tree stability is often associated with a higher risk of windthrow due to higher frequency and greater magnitude of extreme climatic conditions. Higher lateral loads due to an increase in maximum wind and rainfall reduce tree anchorage because of a decrease in soil matric suction and consequently the overall strength in the system of trunk, root, and soil. This study compared the mechanical response of trees with different root architectures using static loading tests conducted in the field and numerical analysis of laser-scanned root systems. For this case, mature trees of Khaya senegalensis (Desr.) A. Juss., Samanea saman (Jacq.) Merr., and Syzygium grande (Wight) Wight ex Walp. were tested and analyzed. The root system models consisted of root system architectures obtained using 3-D laser scanning. A parametric analysis was conducted by varying the modulus of elasticity of the soil (Es) from 2.5 to 25 MPa, and the results were compared with those of the static loading tests to obtain the overall mechanical responses of the root–soil systems. The results showed important dependencies of the mechanical responses of the root–soil system on the root architecture in withstanding the lateral load. The numerical models also allowed estimation of the effective leeward and windward anchorage zones with different soil elastic moduli and rooting architectures to define the extent of the tree root protection zones.

Description: Habitat loss is one of the main consequences of landscape transformation by humans. Monitoring biodiversity changes in areas under different management strategies is fundamental for species conservation. Our study is the first to assess the role of forest disturbance history on spider (Araneae) biodiversity in the westernmost portion of the Atlantic Forest. We analyzed taxonomic and functional aspects of spider assemblages in understories in a large forest fragment in southwestern Brazil. Spiders were sampled in five 30 m × 5 m plots over three seasons in three areas with different management histories: clear-cutting, selective logging, or native plots. We also characterized tree basal area, tree density, and canopy openness. The clear-cut plots showed more canopy openness and low habitat heterogeneity due to the high density of one pioneer native tree species. Forest structure in selective logging and native plots was similar. Spider richness, abundance, and functional richness were affected only by the season. Species composition also differed among the areas depending on the season. The abundance of web-building species was mainly associated with clear-cut areas in winter and spring. These results highlight the importance of natural regeneration in the Atlantic Forest after disturbance for the conservation of regional spider biodiversity.

Description: Quantitative genetic variation of fiber-dimension traits and their relationship with diameter at breast height (DBH) and solid-wood traits (i.e., density and modulus of elasticity (MOE)) was investigated in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.). A total of 823 increment cores were sampled from 207 half-sib families at two independent progeny trials, aged 34–35 years, located in northern Sweden. High-resolution pith-to-bark profiles were obtained for radial fiber width (RFW), tangential fiber width (TFW), fiber wall thickness (FWT), and fiber coarseness (FC) using SilviScan. Heritabilities ranged from 0.29 to 0.74, and inheritance increased with cambial maturity. Estimated age–age genetic correlations indicate that early selection between ages 5 and 8 years is highly efficient. Our results indicate that selection for a 1% increase in DBH or MOE incurs a negligible effect on fiber-dimension traits and maximum genetic gains are reached when DBH and MOE are considered jointly. Moreover, simultaneous improvement of growth and stiffness is achievable when a selection index with 7 to 10 economical weights for MOE relative to 1 for DBH is incorporated. However, the unfavorable relationship between solid-wood traits and pulp and paper related traits suggests that breeding strategies must be implemented to improve wood quality of lodgepole pine for multiple uses.

Description: Lack of generalized equations has prevailed in Brazil, because it is assumed that localized or climate-specific equations are needed. This study aimed to develop generalized stem taper and volume equations applicable to 11 eucalyptus clones and evaluate if climate variation impacts the accuracy of the estimates. A total of 693 trees evenly distributed across 11 clones at 21 sites were used for model fittings and predictive validation. The penalized mixed spline (PMS) approach was developed for predicting stem taper and volume along the stem profile. The Schumacher and Hall (1933) equation was used to predict total tree volume, while volume ratio equations were applied to predict merchantable volume. For every fitted equation, an annual climatic variable was included to assess the improvement in model performance. The overall results highlighted that climatic variation does not need to be accounted for in stem taper and volume modeling. All of the equations displayed desirable accuracy, but the generalized PMS equation may be preferred when the forestry enterprise looks to furnish a range of multiple forest products. The generalized total tree volume equation, combined with the ratio equations, is highly recommended when the forestry enterprise produces a single product.

Description: Wood ash may be an effective soil amendment in North America to restore acidified and low-nutrient forest soils, but little research exists beyond its effects on soil and plants. Eastern Red-backed Salamander (Plethodon cinereus (Green, 1818)) abundance was assessed in a northern hardwood forest 1 year following an ash-addition field trial. Plots were established with fly ash and bottom ash treatments of 0, 1, 4, and 8 Mg·ha−1 (n = 4), and cover boards were positioned both with and without ash beneath. One year following ash additions, salamander abundance had increased under boards with fly ash beneath, and bottom ash had no effect. Soil pH and electrical conductivity increased under cover boards with ash beneath them and for uncovered soil, and the effects were strongest under cover boards with ash beneath. The effects of ash were generally stronger at higher dosages, and fly ash was stronger than bottom ash. The moisture holding capacity of fly ash was 60% higher than the soil and was 63% lower than the soil for bottom ash, but they had little effect on moisture of the forest floor. These results suggest that ash altered salamander abundance via soil pH and moisture and would not inhibit salamander movement over the forest floor.

Description: Forest health deteriorated in eastern North America as a result of depletion of available soil base cations by elevated inputs of acid deposition. We experimentally restored available calcium (Ca) to soils of a forested watershed at Hubbard Brook, New Hampshire, and measured the response of fine root biomass 14 years after treatment. In this northern hardwood forest, fine root (

Description: In Europe, mixed mountain forests, primarily comprised of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), silver fir (Abies alba Mill.), and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), cover about 10 × 106 ha at elevations between ∼600 and 1600 m a.s.l. These forests provide invaluable ecosystem services. However, the growth of these forests and the competition among their main species are expected to be strongly affected by climate warming. In this study, we analyzed the growth development of spruce, fir, and beech in moist mixed mountain forests in Europe over the last 300 years. Based on tree-ring analyses on long-term observational plots, we found for all three species (i) a nondecelerating, linear diameter growth trend spanning more than 300 years; (ii) increased growth levels and trends, the latter being particularly pronounced for fir and beech; and (iii) an elevation-dependent change of fir and beech growth. Whereas in the past, the growth was highest at lower elevations, today’s growth is superior at higher elevations. This spatiotemporal pattern indicates significant changes in the growth and interspecific competition at the expense of spruce in mixed mountain forests. We discuss possible causes, consequences, and silvicultural implications of these distinct growth changes in mixed mountain forests.

Description: Root elongation of greenhouse-grown Alaskan taiga tree seedlings increased with increasing root temperature in all six species examined and was most temperature sensitive in warm-adapted aspen (Populustremuloides Michx.). Root elongation was slower in fine than large roots and in black spruce (Piceamariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) was less temperature sensitive in fine than in large roots. Root elongation in the laboratory was slowest in black spruce, which has an inherently slow growth rate, and most rapid in poplar (Populusbalsamifera L.) and aspen, which grow more rapidly. In contrast, field root elongation rates tended to be highest in black spruce from cold wet sites, suggesting that site factors other than soil temperature (e.g., moisture) predominated over genetic differences among species in determining field root elongation rates. The seasonal pattern of root elongation was closely correlated with soil temperature and reached maximum rates in July for all tree species (except aspen medium-sized roots). Most roots of each species were in the top 20 cm of soil. However, root growth penetrated to greater depth in warm compared with cold sites. Root biomass in a 130-year black spruce forest (1230 g/m2) comprised only 15% of total tree biomass. Root biomass of 25-year aspen and 60-year poplar sites (517 and 5385 g/m2, respectively) comprised a greater proportion (57% in poplar) of total tree biomass than in spruce.

Description: Vegetation–soil systems differentially influence the ecosystem processes related to the carbon cycle, particularly when one tree species is dominant over wide geographic regions that are undergoing climate change. The objective of this study was to quantify the stocks of ecosystem carbon in three vegetation–soil systems along a highland elevational gradient in central Mexico. The vegetation–soil systems, from lower to higher elevation, were dominated by Alnus jorullensis Kunth, Abies religiosa (Kunth) Schltdl. & Cham., and Pinus hartwegii Lindl., respectively. Above- and below-ground tree biomass was determined in each system, along with the litter, coarse woody material, roots, and litterfall. The A. religiosa system had the greatest stock of aboveground biomass carbon (216 ± 31 Mg C·ha−1). The A. jorullensis system had the greatest production of litterfall (3.1 ± 0.08 Mg·ha−1·year−1); however, the carbon content of this litter layer (1.2 ± 0.32 Mg C·ha−1) was lower than that of P. hartwegii (10.1 ± 0.28 Mg C·ha−1). Thus, the litter layer in the A. jorullensis system had markedly the shortest residence time (8 years), suggesting high rates of litter decomposition. The soil carbon stock (at soil depth of 1 m) was greater in A. jorullensis (189 Mg C·ha−1) and P. hartwegii (137 Mg C·ha−1) than in A. religiosa (68 Mg C·ha−1). The A. religiosa and A. jorullensis systems had the highest and lowest total ecosystem C content (301 and 228 Mg C·ha−1, respectively). Upward migration of the A. religiosa system in response to global climate change, however, could cause losses by 2030 of 187 Mg C·ha−1 associated with aboveground biomass.

Description: Conifer winter damage results primarily from loss of cold hardiness during unseasonably warm days in late winter and early spring, and such damage may increase in frequency and severity under a warming climate. In this study, the dehardening dynamics of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex. Loud), jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.), white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss), and black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) were examined in relation to thermal accumulation during artificial dehardening in winter (December) and spring (March) using relative electrolyte leakage and visual assessment of pine needles and spruce shoots. Results indicated that all four species dehardened at a similar rate and to a similar extent, despite considerably different thermal accumulation requirements. Spring dehardening was comparatively faster, with black spruce slightly hardier than the other conifers at the late stage of spring dehardening. The difference, however, was relatively small and did not afford black spruce significant protection during seedling freezing tests prior to budbreak in late March and early May. The dehardening curves and models developed in this study may serve as a tool to predict cold hardiness by temperature and to understand the potential risks of conifer cold injury during warming–freezing events prior to budbreak.

Description: Model-based inference is an alternative to probability-based inference for small areas or remote areas for which probability sampling is difficult. Model-based mean square error estimators incorporate three components: prediction covariance, residual variance, and residual covariance. The latter two components are often considered negligible, particularly for large areas, but no thresholds that justify ignoring them have been reported. The objectives of the study were threefold: (i) to compare analytical and bootstrap estimators of model parameter covariances as the primary factors affecting prediction covariance; (ii) to estimate the contribution of residual variance to overall variance; and (iii) to estimate thresholds for residual spatial correlation that justify ignoring this component. Five datasets were used, three from Europe, one from Africa, and one from North America. The dependent variable was either forest volume or biomass and the independent variables were either Landsat satellite image bands or airborne laser scanning metrics. Three conclusions were noteworthy: (i) analytical estimators of the model parameter covariances tended to be biased; (ii) the effects of residual variance were mostly negligible; and (iii) the effects of spatial correlation on residual covariance vary by multiple factors but decrease with increasing study area size. For study areas greater than 75 km2 in size, residual covariance could generally be ignored.

Description: The patterns of translocation of carbon in different-age tissues of four common moss species in a black spruce (Piceamariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) dominated forest near Fairbanks, Alaska, were studied by 14C labelling and carbohydrate analysis. A simple, in-vial combustion technique was developed for combustion of small (

Description: To assess the impacts of uncertainty and environmental objectives on the configuration of timber supply networks, we develop a generic multi-period, mixed-integer fuzzy linear programming model with demand uncertainty and two objectives of minimizing total transportation cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We then use the triangular fuzzy number method to define the uncertain demands and convert the model into its equivalent auxiliary crisp counterpart. To derive Pareto solutions more efficiently, we propose the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) to solve the model. Finally, we apply the model framework and solution method to a real-world case of regional timber supply in Fujian, China, to demonstrate their applicability. The simulation results of the model show that trade-offs exist between total cost and GHG emissions and that the proper selection of the number and locations of distribution centers can help reduce both the cost and GHG emissions. Demand uncertainty and supply fluctuations across different time periods can increase the cost and GHG emissions. Our empirical results provide useful insights into the design and management of regional timber supply networks, and our generic model is applicable to the analysis of regional supply networks of other products or materials besides timber.

Description: Water stress of subalpine conifer species may be measured with the pressure chamber after several hours of tissue storage. Tissue samples stored in cool, humid vials exhibited very little change in xylem pressure potential over a 4-h period. However, xylem pressure potential declined steadily when a source of water vapor was not available. Xylem pressure potentials of current-year and 1-year-old needles of lodgepole pine (Pinuscontorta var. latifolia Engelm.) were slightly lower than those of older needles.

Description: The ability to rapidly estimate wind speed beneath a forest canopy or near the ground surface in any vegetation is critical to practical wildland fire behavior models. The common metric of this wind speed is the “mid-flame” wind speed, UMF. However, the existing approach for estimating UMF has some significant shortcomings. These include the assumptions that both the within-canopy wind speed and the canopy structure are uniform with depth (z) throughout the canopy and that the canopy roughness length (z0) and displacement height (d) are the same regardless of canopy structure and foliage density. The purpose of this study is to develop and assess a model of canopy wind and Reynolds stress that eliminates these shortcomings and thereby provide a more physically realistic method for calculating UMF. The present model can be used for canopies of arbitrary plant surface distribution and leaf area, and the single function that describes the within-canopy wind speed is shown to reproduce observed canopy wind speed profiles across a wide variety of canopies. An equally simple analytical expression for the within-canopy Reynolds stress, [Formula: see text], also provides a reasonable description of the observed vertical profiles of Reynolds stress. In turn, [Formula: see text] is used to calculate z0 and d. Tests of operational performance are also discussed.

Description: Wildland fire dynamics are a complex three-dimensional turbulent process. Cellular automata (CA) is an efficient tool to predict fire dynamics, but the main parameters of the method are challenging to estimate. To overcome this challenge, we compute statistical distributions of the key parameters of a CA model using infrared images from controlled burns. Moreover, we apply this analysis to different spatial scales and compare the experimental results with a simple statistical model. By performing this analysis and making this comparison, several capabilities and limitations of CA are revealed.

Description: It has recently become clear that the regeneration density of serotinous species within a burned area declines with local fire intensity. It is assumed that this occurs because variation in local fire intensity leads to variation in incident heat fluxes and, ultimately, seed necrosis. We argue here that this same relationship between incident heat flux and seed necrosis is important at the scale of individual plant crowns. Using Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P. (black spruce), we show that postfire seed viability increases with crown height, depth into the crown, and angle from wind direction (with the windward side enjoying greater viability). All three effects are what one would expect given the physics of buoyant plumes, interactions of moving fire lines with wake flow around cylinders, and heat transfer in porous bodies such as a tree crown. We conclude by discussing the broader consequences of cone cluster size and global change on regeneration in serotinous species.

Description: Forest attributes such as volume or basal area are concentrated at tree locations and are absent elsewhere. It is, therefore, more meaningful to consider the amount of forest attributes at a prefixed spatial grain, within regular plots of prefixed size centered at the points of the study area. In this way, the diversity of attributes within plots also can be considered and quantified by suitable indexes, giving rise to a diversity surface defined on the continuum of points constituting the area. We analyze the estimation of diversity surfaces when a sample of plots is selected by a probabilistic sampling scheme and diversity within nonsampled plots is estimated using an inverse distance weighting interpolator. We discuss the design-based asymptotic properties of the resulting maps when the survey area remains fixed and the number of sampled points increases. Because diversity surfaces share suitable mathematical properties, if the schemes adopted to select sample points ensure an even coverage of the study areas avoiding large portions of non-sampled zones, it can be proven that the estimated maps approach the true maps.

Description: Recent interest in continuous cover forest management of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris Mill.) ecosystems raises questions of long-term sustainability because of uncertainty in rates of canopy recruitment of longleaf pine trees. We destructively sampled 130 naturally regenerated, midstory longleaf pines across an 11 300 ha, second-growth longleaf pine landscape in southwestern Georgia, United States, to reconstruct individual tree height growth patterns. We tested effects of stand density (using a competition index) and site quality (based on two site classifications: mesic and xeric) on height growth and demographics of midstory trees. We also compared height growth of paired midstory and overstory trees to infer stand regeneration and recruitment dynamics. In low-density stands, midstory trees were younger and grew at greater rates than trees within high-density stands. Midstory trees in low-density stands were mostly from a younger regeneration cohort than their paired overstory trees, whereas midstory–overstory pairs in high-density stands were mostly of the same cohort. Our results highlight the importance of releasing midstory longleaf pine trees from local competition for sustained height growth in partial-harvesting management systems. They also demonstrate patterns of long-term persistence in high-density stands, indicating flexibility in the canopy recruitment process of this shade-intolerant tree species.

Description: Fire refugia — locations that burn less severely or less frequently than surrounding areas — support late-successional and old-growth forest structure and function. This study investigates the influence of topography and fuels on the probability of forest fire refugia under varying fire weather conditions. We focused on recent large fires in Oregon and Washington, United States (n = 39 fires 〉 400 ha, 2004–2014). Our objectives were to (1) map fire refugia as a component of the burn severity gradient, (2) quantify the predictability of fire refugia as a function of prefire fuels and topography under moderate and high fire weather conditions, and (3) map the conditional probability of fire refugia to illustrate their spatial patterns in old-growth forests. Fire refugia exhibited higher predictability under relatively moderate fire weather conditions. Prefire live fuels were strong predictors of fire refugia, with higher refugia probability in forests with higher prefire biomass. In addition, fire refugia probability was higher in topographic settings with relatively northern aspects, steep catchment slopes, and concave topographic positions. Conditional probability maps revealed consistently higher fire refugia probability under moderate versus high fire weather scenarios. Results from this study inform conservation planning by determining late-successional forests most likely to persist as fire refugia despite increasing regional fire activity.

Description: Lightning strikes millions of trees worldwide each year, yet structured lightning damage surveys are relatively rare. Estimates drawn from the literature suggest that lightning directly or indirectly kills up to 4% of large canopy trees in a stand annually. Lightning is a major cause of death for pines in southeastern US forests and for large cacti in some deserts, but its landscape-level effects exclusive of fire at higher latitudes are poorly known. We quantified damage to trees from lightning and other sources in hemlock–hardwood forests of the Huron Mountain Region of Michigan, USA. This region receives ca. 100 cloud-to-ground lightning flashes per year, with most occurring in May to August. We recorded abiotic and biotic damage on 309 trees distributed among nine transects, each 〉2 km long. None of the transect trees had lightning scars, and we observed only 14 clear cases of lightning damage among thousands of trees examined during associated meander surveys (each ca. 0.5 ha). This damage was more commonly associated with emergent stature (50% of struck trees) and higher rates of biotic damage (50%) than we observed in the 309 transect trees (22% emergent status and 16% incidence of biotic damage). Nearly all (93%) of the lightning damaged trees were conifers, suggesting that either susceptibility to, or response to, lightning strikes has a phylogenetic basis. These preliminary results provide a foundation for comparative studies in other forests. Accurate quantification of lightning-induced tree mortality will improve forest turnover models and facilitate predictions of future forest structure under conditions of increased lightning frequency.

Description: The sampling intensity of a national forest inventory is usually low. Forest dynamics models can be used to update plots from past inventory campaigns to enhance the precision of the estimate on smaller areas. By doing this, however, the inference relies not only on the sampling design, but also on the model. In this study, the contribution of model predictions to the variance of enhanced small-area estimates was assessed through a case study. The French national forest inventory provided different annual campaigns for a particular region and department of France. Three past campaigns were updated using a forest dynamics model, and estimates of the standing volumes were obtained through two methods: a modified multiple imputation and the Bayesian method. The update greatly increased the precision of the estimate, and the gain was similar between the two methods. The sampling-related variance represented the largest share of the total variance in all cases. This study suggests that plot updating provides more precise estimates as long as (i) the forest dynamics model exhibits no systematic lack of fit and was fitted to a large data set and (ii) the sampling-related variance clearly outweighs the model-related variance.

Description: This study was carried out in the northern region of Burkina Faso under Sahelian climatic conditions. The area was particularly affected by the 1970s–1980s droughts that led to the degradation of land and vegetation. Since the early 1990s, a gradual return of rainfall has been observed throughout the Sahel region. In this new environmental context, understanding the development of woody plants is important for effective conservation and management. We analyzed the dynamics of woody plant cover over the 30 years following the end of the 1970s–1980s droughts by using Landsat images from 1986, 1999, and 2015 with 30 m spatial resolution and taking into account changes in rainfall and land use. The change in the enhanced vegetation index 1 (EVI1) at the beginning of the dry season was used as a proxy for the change in photosynthetic activity of woody plants. Results showed an improvement in EVI1 on 98% of the study area, with a mean increase of 0.20 from 1986 to 2015. This improvement was accompanied by an increase in agroforestry and was weakly correlated with rainfall. The improvement in EVI1 was unstable, however, with a decline from 1999 to 2015 in the areas undergoing regreening.

Description: Canada’s National Forest Carbon Monitoring Accounting and Reporting System (NFCMARS) quantifies the carbon (C) dynamics and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals of Canada’s managed forest to fulfill reporting obligations under international climate conventions. Countries are also requested to assess the uncertainty associated with these estimates, which we report here. We used Monte Carlo simulation to quantify uncertainty of carbon stock and flux estimates from the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3), the core ecosystem model of the NFCMARS. We evaluated the impacts of model algorithms, parameters, and the input data used to describe forest characteristics and disturbance rates. Under our assumptions, 95% confidence interval widths averaged 16.2 Pg C (+8.3 and –7.9 Pg C, or ±15%) for total ecosystem C stock and 32.2 Tg C·year−1 (+16.6 and –15.6 Tg C·year−1) for net biome production relative to an overall simulation median of –0.8 Tg C·year−1 from 1990 to 2014. The largest sources of uncertainty were related to factors determining biomass increment and the parameters used to model soil and dead organic matter C dynamics. Opportunities to reduce uncertainty and associated research challenges were identified.