ALBERT

Description: Archaeological exavations,undertaken since 2004 for the construction of the new Naples subway

Description: Published

Description: 542-557

Description: 1V. Storia eruttiva

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Here we present the results of the inversion of a new geodetic data set covering the 2012 Emilia seismic sequence and the following 1 year of postseismic deformation. Modeling of the geodetic data together with the use of a catalog of 3-D relocated aftershocks allows us to constrain the rupture geometries and the coseismic and postseismic slip distributions for the two main events (Mw 6.1 and 6.0) of the sequence and to explore how these thrust events have interacted with each other. Dislocation modeling reveals that the first event ruptured a slip patch located in the center of the Middle Ferrara thrust with up to 1 m of reverse slip. The modeling of the second event, located about 15 km to the southwest, indicates a main patch with up to 60 cm of slip initiated in the deeper and flatter portion of the Mirandola thrust and progressively propagated postseismically toward the top section of the rupture plane, where most of the aftershocks and afterslip occurred. Our results also indicate that between the two main events, a third thrust segment was activated releasing a pulse of aseismic slip equivalent to a Mw 5.8 event. Coulomb stress changes suggest that the aseismic event was likely triggered by the preceding main shock and that the aseismic slip event probably brought the second fault closer to failure. Our findings show significant correlations between static stress changes and seismicity and suggest that stress interaction between earthquakes plays a significant role among continental en echelon thrusts.

Description: Published

Description: 4742–4766

Description: 1T. Deformazione crostale attiva

Description: 2T. Sorgente Sismica

Description: 3T. Storia Sismica

Description: JCR Journal

Description: The snow cover on Antarctic sea ice persists during most of the year, contributing significantly to the sea ice mass budget due to comprehensive seasonal transition processes within the snowpack as well as at the snow/ice interface. Consequently, snow on sea ice varies not only in depth but also in particular in its physical characteristics such as snow density and stratigraphy. In order to quantify the heterogeneous nature of the Antarctic snowpack on different spatial scales, that is, small (〈10 m), floe‐size (1‐2 km), and regional (seasonal/perennial ice) scales, we present here a case study of snow analyses in the Weddell Sea in austral winter 2013. The resulting high variability of snow parameters in the basal snow layer reveals the need to distinguish between seasonal and perennial ice regimes, when retrieving, for example, snow depth using satellite microwave radiometry. Considering the full vertical snow column, a more detailed distinction of the perennial sea ice regime into, for example, more ice classes is suggested in order to represent the high variability range. For the internal snowpack variability, however, we identify the grain size variability as the main driver, while snow density variations can be neglected. Moving from regional to floe‐size scales, a similar variability range of the studied snow properties is found, suggesting that a large number of snow samples on a few floes is more crucial than covering a large region with fewer floe‐scale measurements. The spatiotemporally heterogeneous variability in snow accumulation, redistribution, and metamorphism is, however, too large to upscale the given findings beyond regional scale.

Description: Predicting future thaw slump activity requires a sound understanding of the atmospheric drivers and geomorphic controls on mass wasting across a range of time scales. On sub-seasonal time scales, sparse measurements indicate that mass wasting at active slumps is often limited by the energy available for melting ground ice, but other factors such as rainfall or the formation of an insulating veneer may also be relevant. To study the sub-seasonal drivers, we derive topographic changes from single-pass radar interferometric data acquired by the TanDEM-X satellite (12 m resolution). The high vertical precision (around 30 cm), frequent observations (11 days) and large coverage (5000 km2) allow us to track volume losses as drivers such as the available energy change during summer in two study regions. We find that thaw slumps in the Tuktoyaktuk coastlands, Canada, are not energy limited in June, as they undergo limited mass wasting (height loss of around 0 cm/day) despite the ample available energy, indicating the widespread presence of an insulating snow or debris veneer. Later in summer, height losses generally increase (around 3 cm/day), but they do so in distinct ways. For many slumps, mass wasting tracks the available energy, a temporal pattern that is also observed at coastal yedoma cliffs on the Bykovsky Peninsula, Russia. However, the other two common temporal trajectories are asynchronous with the available energy, as they track strong precipitation events or show a sudden speed-up in late August, respectively. The observed temporal patterns are poorly related to slump characteristics like the slump area. The contrasting temporal behaviour of nearby thaw slumps highlights the importance of complex local and temporally varying controls on mass wasting.

Description: This paper investigates new observations from the poorly understood region between the Kara and Laptev Seas in the Eastern Arctic Ocean. We discuss relevant circulation features including riverine freshwater, Atlantic-derived water, and polynya-formed dense water, emphasize Vilkitsky Strait (VS) as an important Kara Sea gateway, and analyze the role of the adjacent 250 km-long submarine Vilkitsky Trough (VT) for the Arctic boundary current. Expeditions in 2013 and 2014 operated closely spaced hydrographic transects and 1 year-long oceanographic mooring near VT’s southern slope, and found persistent annually averaged flow of 0.2 m s21 toward the Nansen Basin. The flow is nearly barotropic from winter through early summer and becomes surface intensified with maximum velocities of 0.35 m s21 from August to October. Thermal wind shear is maximal above the southern flank at 30 m depth, in agreement with basinward flow above VT’s southern slope. The subsurface features a steep front separating warm (–0.58C) Atlantic-derived waters in central VT from cold (〈–1.58C) shelf waters, which episodically migrates across the trough indicated by current reversals and temperature fluctuations. Shelf-transformed waters dominate above VT’s slope, measuring near-freezing temperatures throughout the water column at salinities of 34–35. These dense waters are vigorously advected toward the Eurasian Basin and characterize VT as a conduit for near-freezing waters that could potentially supply the Arctic Ocean’s lower halocline, cool Atlantic water, and ventilate the deeper Arctic Ocean. Our observations from the northwest Laptev Sea highlight a topographically complex region with swift currents, several water masses, narrow fronts, polynyas, and topographically channeled storms.

Description: The mechanisms causing widespread flow acceleration of Jakobshavn Isbræ, West Greenland, remain unclear despite an abundance of observations and modeling studies. Here we simulate the glacier's evolution from 1985 to 2016 using a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice flow model. The model captures the timing and 90% of the observed changes by forcing the calving front. Basal drag in the trough is low, and lateral drag balances the ice stream's driving stress. The calving front position is the dominant control on changes of Jakobshavn Isbræ since the ice viscosity in the shear margins instantaneously drops in response to the stress perturbation caused by calving front retreat, which allows for widespread flow acceleration. Gradual shear margin warming contributes 5 to 10% to the total acceleration. Our simulations suggest that the glacier will contribute to eustatic sea level rise at a rate comparable to or higher than at present.

Description: Greenland's bed topography is a primary control on ice flow, grounding line migration, calving dynamics and subglacial drainage. Moreover, fjord bathymetry regulates the penetration of warm Atlantic Water (AW) that rapidly melts and undercuts Greenland's marine-terminating glaciers. Here, we present a new compilation of Greenland bed topography that assimilates seafloor bathymetry and ice thickness data through a mass conservation (MC) approach. A new 150-m horizontal resolution bed topography/bathymetric map of Greenland is constructed with seamless transitions at the ice/ocean interface, yielding major improvements over previous datasets, particularly in the marine-terminating sectors of northwest and southeast Greenland. Our map reveals the total sea level potential of the Greenland Ice Sheet is 7.42±0.05 m, which is 7 cm greater than previous estimates. Furthermore, it explains recent calving front response of numerous outlet glaciers and reveals new pathways by which AW can access glaciers with marine-based basins, thereby highlighting sectors of Greenland that are most vulnerable to future oceanic forcing.

Description: We present a simulation of Antarctic iceberg drift and melting that includes small, medium-sized, and giant tabular icebergs with a realistic size distribution. For the first time, an iceberg model is initialized with a set of nearly 7000 observed iceberg positions and sizes around Antarctica. The study highlights the necessity to account for larger and giant icebergs in order to obtain accurate melt climatologies. We simulate drift and lateral melt using iceberg-draft averaged ocean currents, temperature, and salinity. A new basal melting scheme, originally applied in ice shelf melting studies, uses in situ temperature, salinity, and relative velocities at an iceberg's bottom. Climatology estimates of Antarctic iceberg melting based on simulations of small (≤ 2.2 km), 'small-to-medium'-sized (≤ 10 km), and small-to-giant icebergs (including icebergs 〉 10 km) exhibit differential characteristics: successive inclusion of larger icebergs leads to a reduced seasonality of the iceberg meltwater flux and a shift of the mass input to the area north of 58 °S, while less meltwater is released into the coastal areas. This suggests that estimates of meltwater input solely based on the simulation of small icebergs introduce a systematic meridional bias; they underestimate the northward mass transport and are, thus, closer to the rather crude treatment of iceberg melting as coastal runoff in models without an interactive iceberg model. Future ocean simulations will benefit from the improved meridional distribution of iceberg melt, especially in climate change scenarios where the impact of iceberg melt is likely to increase due to increased calving from the Antarctic ice sheet.

Description: A suite of oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs – acetaldehyde, acetone, propanal, butanal and butanone) were measured concurrently in the surface water and atmosphere of the South China Sea and Sulu Sea in November 2011. A strong correlation was observed between all OVOC concentrations in the surface seawater along the entire cruise track, except for acetaldehyde, suggesting similar sources and sinks in the surface ocean. Additionally, several phytoplankton groups, such as haptophytes or pelagophytes, were also correlated to all OVOCs indicating that phytoplankton may be an important source for marine OVOCs in the South China and Sulu Seas. Humic and protein like fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM) components seemed to be additional precursors for butanone and acetaldehyde. The atmospheric OVOC mixing ratios were relative high compared with literature values, suggesting the coastal region of North Borneo as a local hot spot for atmospheric OVOCs. The flux of atmospheric OVOCs was largely into the ocean for all 5 gases, with a few important exceptions near the coast of Borneo. The calculated amount of OVOCs entrained into the ocean seemed to be an important source of OVOCs to the surface ocean. When the fluxes were out of the ocean, marine OVOCs were found to be enough to control the local measured OVOC distribution in the atmosphere. Based on our model calculations, at least 0.4 ppb of marine derived acetone and butanone can reach the upper troposphere, where they may have an important influence on hydrogen oxide radical formation over the western Pacific Ocean.

Description: We present early Cretaceous to present paleobathymetric reconstructions and quantitative uncertainty estimates for the South Atlantic, offering a strong basis for studies of paleocirculation, paleoclimate and paleobiogeography. Circulation in an initially salty and anoxic ocean, restricted by the topography of the Falkland Plateau, Rio Grande Ridge and Walvis Rise, favoured deposition of thick evaporites in shallow water of the Brazilian-Angolan margins. This ceased as sea oor spreading propagated northwards, opening an equatorial gateway to shallow and intermediate circulation. This gateway, together with subsiding volcano-tectonic barriers would have played a key role in Late Cretaceous climate changes. Later deepening and widening of the South Atlantic, together with gateway opening at Drake Passage would lead, by mid-Miocene (∼15 Ma) to the establishment of modern-style thermohaline circulation.

Description: The Extrapolar SWIFT model is a fast ozone chemistry scheme for interactive calculation of the extrapolar stratospheric ozone layer in coupled general circulation models (GCMs). In contrast to the widely used prescribed ozone, the SWIFT ozone layer interacts with the model dynamics and can respond to atmospheric variability or climatological trends. The Extrapolar SWIFT model employs a repro-modelling approach, where algebraic functions are used to approximate the numerical output of a full stratospheric chemistry and transport model (ATLAS). The full model solves a coupled chemical differential equations system with 55 initial and boundary conditions (mixing ratio of various chemical species and atmospheric parameters). Hence the rate of change of ozone over 24  h is a function of 55 variables. Using covariances between these variables, we can find linear combinations in order to reduce the parameter space to the following nine basic variables: latitude, pressure altitude, temperature, local ozone column, mixing ratio of ozone and of the ozone depleting families (Cly, Bry, NOy and HOy). We will show that these 9 variables are sufficient to characterize the rate of change of ozone. An automated procedure fits a polynomial function of fourth degree to the rate of change of ozone obtained from several simulations with the ATLAS model. One polynomial function is determined per month which yields the rate of change of ozone over 24 h. A key aspect for the robustness of the Extrapolar SWIFT model is to include a wide range of stratospheric variability in the numerical output of the ATLAS model, also covering atmospheric states that will occur in a future climate (e.g. temperature and meridional circulation changes or reduction of stratospheric chlorine loading). For validation purposes, the Extrapolar SWIFT model has been integrated into the ATLAS model replacing the full stratospheric chemistry scheme. Simulations with SWIFT in ATLAS have proven that the systematic error is small and does not accumulate during the course of a simulation. In the context of a 10 year simulation, the ozone layer, simulated by SWIFT, shows a stable annual cycle, with inter-annual variations comparable to the ATLAS model. The application of Extrapolar SWIFT requires the evaluation of polynomial functions with 30–100 terms. Nowadays, computers can calculate such polynomial functions at thousands of model grid points in seconds. SWIFT provides the desired numerical efficiency and computes the ozone layer 104 times faster than the chemistry scheme in the ATLAS CTM.

Description: The Southern Hemisphere Antarctic stratosphere experienced two noteworthy events in 2015: a significant injection of sulfur from the Calbuco volcanic eruption in Chile in April, and a record-large Antarctic ozone hole in October and November. Here, we quantify Calbuco's influence on stratospheric ozone depletion in austral spring 2015 using observations and an earth system model. We analyze ozonesondes, as well as data from the Microwave Limb Sounder. We employ the Community Earth System Model, version 1, with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM1(WACCM)) in a specified dynamics setup, which includes calculations of volcanic effects. The Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization data indicate enhanced volcanic liquid sulfate 532 nm backscatter values as far poleward as 68°S during October and November (in broad agreement with WACCM). Comparison of the location of the enhanced aerosols to ozone data supports the view that aerosols played a major role in increasing the ozone hole size, especially at pressure levels between 150 and 100 hPa. Ozonesonde vertical ozone profiles from the sites of Syowa, South Pole, and Neumayer, display the lowest individual October or November measurements at 150 hPa since the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption period, with Davis showing similarly low values, but no available 1990s data. The analysis suggests that under the cold conditions ideal for ozone depletion, stratospheric volcanic aerosol particles from the moderate-magnitude eruption of Calbuco in 2015 greatly enhanced austral ozone depletion, particularly at 55–68°S, where liquid binary sulfate aerosols have a large influence on ozone concentrations.

Description: Ice retreat in the eastern Eurasian Arctic is a consequence of atmospheric and oceanic processes and regional feedback mechanisms acting on the ice cover, both in winter and summer. A correct representation of these processes in numerical models is important, since it will improve predictions of sea ice anomalies along the Northeast Passage and beyond. In this study, we highlight the importance of winter ice dynamics for local summer sea ice anomalies in thickness, volume and extent. By means of airborne sea ice thickness surveys made over pack ice areas in the south-eastern Laptev Sea, we show that years of offshore-directed sea ice transport have a thinning effect on the late-winter sea ice cover. To confirm the preconditioning effect of enhanced offshore advection in late winter on the summer sea ice cover, we perform a sensitivity study using a numerical model. Results verify that the preconditioning effect plays a bigger role for the regional ice extent. Furthermore, they indicate an increase in volume export from the Laptev Sea as a consequence of enhanced offshore advection, which has far-reaching consequences for the entire Arctic sea ice mass balance. Moreover we show that ice dynamics in winter not only preconditions local summer ice extent, but also accelerate fast-ice decay.

Description: Currently there is a scarcity of paleo-records related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), particularly in East-Central Europe (ECE). Here we report δ15N analysis of guano from a cave in NW Romania with the intent of reconstructing past variation in ECE hydroclimate and examine NAO impacts on winter precipitation. We argue that the δ15N values of guano indicate that the nitrogen cycle is hydrologically controlled and the δ15N values likely reflect winter precipitation related to nitrogen mineralization prior to the growing season. Drier conditions indicated by δ15N values at AD 1848–1852 and AD 1880–1930 correspond to the positive phase of the NAO. The increased frequency of negative phases of the NAO between AD 1940–1975 is contemporaneous with higher δ15N values (wetter conditions). A 4‰ decrease in δ15N values at the end of the 1970’s corresponds to a strong reduction in precipitation associated with a shift from negative to positive phase of the NAO. Using the relationship between NAO index and δ15N values in guano for the instrumental period, we reconstructed NAO-like phases back to AD 1650. Our results advocate that δ15N values of guano offer a proxy of the NAO conditions in the more distant past, helping assess its predictability.

Description: Ice of Antarctic ice shelves is assumed to behave on long-term as an incompressible viscous fluid, which is dominated on short time scales by the elastic response. Hence, a viscoelastic material model is required. The thermodynamic pressure is treated differently in elastic and viscous models. For small deformations, the elastic isometric stress for ν → 0.5 gives similar results to those solving for pressure in an incompressible laminar flow model. A viscous model, in which the thermodynamic pressure is approximated by an elastic isometric stress, can be easily extended to viscoelasticity.

Description: Near-surface air temperatures close to 0°C were observed in situ over sea ice in the central Arctic during the last three winter seasons. Here we use in situ winter (December–March) temperature observations, such as those from Soviet North Pole drifting stations and ocean buoys, to determine how common Arctic winter warming events are. Observations of winter warming events exist over most of the Arctic Basin. Temperatures exceeding -5°C were observed during 〉30% of winters from 1954 to 2010 by North Pole drifting stations or ocean buoys. Using the ERA-Interim record (1979–2016), we show that the North Pole (NP) region typically experiences 10 warming events (T2m 〉 10°C) per winter, compared with only five in the Pacific Central Arctic (PCA). There is a positive trend in the overall duration of winter warming events for both the NP region (4.25 days/decade) and PCA (1.16 days/decade), due to an increased number of events of longer duration.

Description: We use a comprehensive suite of partially laminated high-resolution sediment cores from the Bering Sea, covering a depth transect from 1100 m to 2700 m to study deglacial surface ocean warming patterns, associated changes in biological productivity, oxygen minimum zone dynamics and continent-ocean links through Yukon river runoff. We apply a combination of planktic and benthic isotopes, x-ray fluorescence (XRF)-derived ele- mental ratios and a multi-proxy assessment of changes in upper ocean temperatures. Severe oxygen depletions occurred during the Bølling/Allerød (B/A) and early Holocene, which is in accordance with other locations in the North Pacific, especially the Alaska margin. Detailed analysis of the timing of lamination occurrence between the different sediment cores revealed that the onset of severe anoxia at the beginning of the B/A and early Holocene is a near-synchronous event, while the disappearance of laminations is a diachronic process. The deglacial Oxygen Minimum Zone(OMZ) strengthening is mainly driven by increased export production, visible in XRF-derived elemental ratios, and corresponding high accumulation rates of biogenic components. The export production in turn is a response to rising sea surface temperatures, decreased sea ice cover and increased thermal stratification, while a major nutrient source was the eastern continental shelf, which was flooded during the deglacial global sea level rise. It is discussed controversially whether oxygenation variations in the deglacial subarctic Pacific were coupled to changes in mid-depth water chemistry, or rather a response to physical processes like deep-intermediate ocean or mixed layer warming, or stratification changes. However, knowledge of the driving forcing mechanism for OMZ strengthening is of particular importance, as these are tightly coupled to the regional marine carbon budget, e.g. via the strength and efficiency of the biological pump. Here, our laminated sediments provided the opportunity to study ocean dynamics in exceptional detail, possible on decadal to annual timescales. Due to the correlation patterns of our records to the NGRIP oxygen isotope record through layer counts we presume that (i) the presence of laminations is tightly coupled to submillennial, short-term warm phases, especially during the Bølling-Allerød (B/A), (ii) that the laminations represent annual layered sediments (varves). The latter point in conjunction with our geochemical proxies strongly supports an atmospheric teleconnection between SE Asia, the North Atlantic and the North Pacific, with observed changes in mid-depth ocean dynamics occurring on fast, nearly decadal timescales. Thus, the Bering Sea OMZ is a highly sensitive system reacting almost instantaneously to small temperature changes and therefore has the potential to influence the global carbon budget on short timescales, in particular during episodes of rapidly warming climate.

Description: The Beaufort Gyre (BG) is the largest liquid freshwater reservoir of the Arctic Ocean. The liquid freshwater content (FWC) significantly increased in the BG in the 2000s during an anticyclonic wind regime and remained at a high level despite a transition to a more cyclonic state in the early 2010s. It is not well understood to what extent the rapid sea ice decline during this period has modified the trend and variability of the BG liquid FWC in the past decade. Our numerical simulations show that about 50% of the liquid freshwater accumulated in the BG in the 2000s can be explained by the sea ice decline caused by the Arctic atmospheric warming. Among this part of the FWC increase, 60% can be attributed to surface freshening associated with the reduction of the net sea ice thermodynamic growth rate, and 40% to changes in ocean circulation, which makes freshwater more accessible to the BG for storage. Thus, the rapid increase of the BG FWC in the 2000s was due to the concurrence of the anticyclonic wind regime and the high freshwater availability. We also find that if the Arctic sea ice had not declined, the liquid FWC in the BG would have shown a stronger decreasing tendency at the beginning of the 2010s owing to the cyclonic wind regime. From our results we argue that changes in sea ice conditions should be adequately taken into account when it comes to understanding and predicting variations of BG liquid FWC in a changing climate.

Description: Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) are among the most active landforms in the Arctic; their number has increased significantly over the past decades. While processes initiating discrete RTSs are well identified, the major terrain controls on the development of coastal RTSs at a regional scale are not yet defined. Our research reveals the main geomorphic factors that determine the development of RTSs along a 238 km segment of the Yukon Coast, Canada. We (1) show the current extent of RTSs, (2) ascertain the factors controlling their activity and initiation, and (3) explain the spatial differences in the density and areal coverage of RTSs. We mapped and classified 287 RTSs using high-resolution satellite images acquired in 2011. We highlighted the main terrain controls over their development using univariate regression trees model. Coastal geomorphology influenced both the activity and initiation of RTSs: active RTSs and RTSs initiated after 1972 occurred primarily on terrains with slope angles greater than 3.9° and 5.9°, respectively. The density and areal coverage of RTSs were constrained by the volume and thickness of massive ice bodies. Differences in rates of coastal change along the coast did not affect the model. We infer that rates of coastal change averaged over a 39 year period are unable to reflect the complex relationship between RTSs and coastline dynamics. We emphasize the need for large-scale studies of RTSs to evaluate their impact on the ecosystem and to measure their contribution to the global carbon budget.

Description: Sea ice formation is accompanied by the rejection of salt which in nature tends to be mixed vertically by the formation of convective plumes. Here we analyze the influence of a salt plume parameterization (SPP) in an atmosphere-sea ice-ocean model. Two 330 years long simulations have been conducted with the AWI Climate Model. In the reference simulation, the rejected salt in the Arctic Ocean is added to the upper-most ocean layer. This approach is commonly used in climate modelling. In another experiment, employing SPP, the rejected salt is vertically redistributed within the mixed layer based on a power law profile that mimics the penetration of salt plumes. We discuss the effects of this redistribution on the simulated mean state and on atmosphere-ocean linkages associated with the intensity of deep water formation. We find that the salt plume parametrization leads to simultaneous increase of sea ice (volume and concentration) and decrease of sea surface salinity in the Arctic. The SPP considerably alters the interplay between the atmosphere and the ocean in the Nordic Seas. The parameterization modifies the ocean ventilation; however, resulting changes in temperature and salinity largely compensate each other in terms of density so that the overturning circulation is not significantly affected.

Description: To better understand the reaction of Arctic coasts to increasing environmental pressure, coastal changes along a 210-km length of the Yukon Territory coast in north-west Canada were investigated. Shoreline positions were acquired from aerial and satellite images between 1951 and 2011. Shoreline change rates were calculated for multiple time periods along the entire coast and at six key sites. Additionally, Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) measurements of shoreline positions from seven field sites were used to analyze coastal dynamics from 1991 to 2015 at higher spatial resolution. The whole coast has a consistent, spatially averaged mean rate of shoreline change of 0.7 ± 0.2 m/a with a general trend of decreasing erosion from west to east. Additional data from six key sites shows that the mean shoreline change rate decreased from �1.3 ± 0.8 (1950s–1970s) to �0.5 ± 0.6 m/a (1970s–1990s). This was followed by a significant increase in shoreline change to �1.3 ± 0.3 m/a in the 1990s to 2011. This increase is confirmed by DGPS measurements that indicate increased erosion rates at local rates up to �8.9 m/a since 2006. Ground surveys and observations with remote sensing data indicate that the current rate of shoreline retreat along some parts of the Yukon coast is higher than at any time before in the 64-year-long observation record. Enhanced availability of material in turn might favor the buildup of gravel features, which have been growing in extent throughout the last six decades.

Description: The aim of the presented study was to investigate the impact on the radiation budget of a biomass-burning plume, transported from Alaska to the High Arctic region of Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, in early July 2015. Since the mean aerosol optical depth increased by the factor of 10 above the average summer background values, this large aerosol load event is considered particularly exceptional in the last 25 years. In situ data with hygroscopic growth equations, as well as remote sensing measurements as inputs to radiative transfer models, were used, in order to estimate biases associated with (i) hygroscopicity, (ii) variability of single-scattering albedo profiles, and (iii) plane-parallel closure of the modelled atmosphere. A chemical weather model with satellite-derived biomass-burning emissions was applied to interpret the transport and transformation pathways. The provided MODTRAN radiative transfer model (RTM) simulations for the smoke event (14:00 9 July–11:30 11 July) resulted in a mean aerosol direct radiative forcing at the levels of −78.9 and −47.0 W m ^-2 at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere, respectively, for the mean value of aerosol optical depth equal to 0.64 at 550 nm. This corresponded to the average clear-sky direct radiative forcing of −43.3 W/m ^2, estimated by radiometer and model simulations at the surface. Ultimately, uncertainty associated with the plane-parallel atmosphere approximation altered results by about 2 W m^−2. Furthermore, model-derived aerosol direct radiative forcing efficiency reached on average −126 W m^−2/τ550 and −71 W^m−2/τ550 at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere, respectively. The heating rate, estimated at up to 1.8 K day^−1 inside the biomass-burning plume, implied vertical mixing with turbulent kinetic energy of 0.3 m^2s^−2

Description: The Filchner‐Ronne Ice Shelf, the ocean cavity beneath it, and the Weddell Sea that bounds it, form an important part of the global climate system by modulating ice discharge from the Antarctic Ice Sheet and producing cold dense water masses that feed the global thermohaline circulation. A prerequisite for modeling the ice sheet and oceanographic processes within the cavity is an accurate knowledge of the sub‐ice sheet bedrock elevation, but beneath the ice shelf where airborne radar cannot penetrate, bathymetric data are sparse. This paper presents new seismic point measurements of cavity geometry from a particularly poorly sampled region south of Berkner Island that connects the Filchner and Ronne ice shelves. An updated bathymetric grid formed by combining the new data with existing data sets reveals several new features. In particular, a sill running between Berkner Island and the mainland could alter ocean circulation within the cavity and change our understanding of paleo‐ice stream flow in the region. Also revealed are deep troughs near the grounding lines of Foundation and Support Force ice streams, which provide access for seawater with melting potential. Running an ocean tidal model with the new bathymetry reveals large differences in tidal current velocities, both within the new gridded region and further afield, potentially affecting sub‐ice shelf melt rates.

Description: The Antarctic silverfish (Pleuragramma antarctica) is a critically important forage species with a circumpolar distribution and is unique among other notothenioid species for its wholly pelagic life cycle. Previous studies have provided mixed evidence of population structure over regional and circumpolar scales. The aim of the present study was to test the recent population hypothesis for Antarctic silverfish, which emphasizes the interplay between life history and hydrography in shaping connectivity. A total of 1067 individuals were collected over 25 years from different locations on a circumpolar scale. Samples were genotyped at fifteen microsatellites to assess population differentiation and genetic structuring using clustering methods, F-statistics, and hierarchical analysis of variance. A lack of differentiation was found between locations connected by the Antarctic Slope Front Current (ASF), indicative of high levels of gene flow. However, gene flow was significantly reduced at the South Orkney Islands and the western Antarctic Peninsula where the ASF is absent. This pattern of gene flow emphasized the relevance of large-scale circulation as a mechanism for circumpolar connectivity. Chaotic genetic patchiness characterized population structure over time, with varying patterns of differentiation observed between years, accompanied by heterogeneous standard length distributions. The present study supports a more nuanced version of the genetic panmixia hypothesis that reflects physical-biological interactions over the life history.

Description: Understanding the influence of the Arctic troposphere on the climate at midlatitudes is critical for projecting the impacts of ongoing and anticipated Arctic changes such as Arctic amplification and rapid sea ice decline over the Northern Hemisphere. In this study, we analyze a suite of atmospheric model experiments, with and without atmospheric relaxation toward reanalysis data, to study the impacts of the Arctic troposphere on the midlatitude atmospheric circulation and climate variability. The Arctic troposphere is found to strongly impact the interannual variability of the atmospheric circulation and temperature over the midlatitude continents. The major mechanisms for the impacts of Arctic troposphere include the modulation of the large‐scale atmospheric circulation, the associated heat transport over the continents, and the impacts on synoptic variations in the North Atlantic‐European sector. The impact of the Arctic troposphere on the intensity of the Siberian High is an important factor for how the Arctic can influence temperature variability in south Siberia and East Asia. The trends in the Arctic troposphere in recent decades are closely linked to the recent winter cooling in Northern Eurasia. These recent cooling trends are not driven by the trends in sea surface temperature/sea ice, tropical atmosphere, and the stratosphere. It is argued that the temperature trend pattern of warm Arctic‐cold Eurasia is a manifestation of two possibly independent phenomena and the cooling trend is contributed to by the Arctic troposphere through impacting the large‐scale atmospheric circulation, the atmospheric blocking frequency, and the intensity of the Siberian High.

Description: Recent observations of near-surface soil temperatures over the circumpolar Arctic show accelerated warming of permafrost-affected soils. The availability of a comprehensive near-surface permafrost and active layer dataset is critical to better understanding climate impacts and to constraining permafrost thermal conditions and its spatial distribution in land system models. We compiled a soil temperature dataset from 72 monitoring stations in Alaska using data collected by the US Geological Survey, the National Park Service, and the University of Alaska Fairbanks permafrost monitoring networks. The array of monitoring stations spans a large range of latitudes from 60.9 to 71.3 N and elevations from near sea level to~ 1300 m, comprising tundra and boreal forest regions. This dataset consists of monthly ground temperatures at depths up to 1 m, volumetric soil water content, snow depth, and air temperature during 1997–2016. These data have been quality controlled in collection and processing. Meanwhile, we implemented data harmonization evaluation for the processed dataset. The final product (PF-AK, v0. 1) is available at the Arctic Data Center (https://doi. org/10.18739/A2KG55).

Description: Permafrost temperatures are increasing in Alaska due to climate change and in some cases permafrost is thawing and degrading. In areas where degradation has already occurred the effects can be dramatic, resulting in changing ecosystems, carbon release, and damage to infrastructure. However, in many areas we lack baseline data, such as subsurface temperatures, needed to assess future changes and potential risk areas. Besides climate, the physical properties of the vegetation cover and subsurface material have a major influence on the thermal state of permafrost. These properties are often directly related to the type of ecosystem overlaying permafrost. In this paper we demonstrate that classifying the landscape into general ecotypes is an effective way to scale up permafrost thermal data collected from field monitoring sites. Additionally, we find that within some ecotypes the absence of a moss layer is indicative of the absence of near-surface permafrost. As a proof of concept, we used the ground temperature data collected from the field sites to recode an ecotype land cover map into a map of mean annual ground temperature ranges at 1 m depth based on analysis and clustering of observed thermal regimes. The map should be useful for decision making with respect to land use and understanding how the landscape might change under future climate scenarios.

Description: Pacific Water (PW) enters the Arctic Ocean through Bering Strait and brings heat, fresh water and nutrients from the northern Bering Sea. The circulation of PW in the central Arctic Ocean is only partially understood due to the lack of observations. In this paper pathways of PW are investigated using simulations with six state-of-the art regional and global Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs). In the simulations PW is tracked by a passive tracer, released in Bering Strait. Simulated PW water spreads from the Bering Strait region in three major branches. One of them starts in the Barrow Canyon, bringing PW along continental slope of Alaska into the Canadian Straits and then into Baffin Bay. The other initiates in the vicinity of the Herald Canyon and transports PW along the continental slope of the East-Siberian Sea into the transpolar drift, and then through Fram Strait and the Greenland Sea. The third branch begins near the Herald Shoal and the central Chukchi shelf and brings PW waters into the Beaufort Gyre. Models suggest that the spread of PW through the Arctic Ocean depends on the atmospheric circulation. In the models the wind, acting via Ekman pumping, drives the seasonal and interannual variability of PW in the Canadian Basin of the Arctic Ocean. The wind effects the simulated PW pathways by changing vertical shear of the relative vorticity of the ocean flow in the Canada Basin. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: We demonstrated atmospheric responses to a reduction in Arctic sea ice via simulations in which Arctic sea ice decreased stepwise from the present-day range to an ice-free range. In all cases, the tropospheric response exhibited a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)-like pattern. An intensification of the climatological planetary-scale wave due to the present-day sea ice reduction on the Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean induced stratospheric polar vortex weakening and the subsequent negative AO. Conversely, strong Arctic warming due to ice-free conditions across the entire Arctic Ocean induced a weakening of the tropospheric westerlies corresponding to a negative AO without troposphere-stratosphere coupling, for which the planetary-scale wave response to a surface heat source extending to the Pacific side of the Arctic Ocean was responsible. Because the resultant negative AO-like response was accompanied by secondary circulation in the meridional plane, atmospheric heat transport into the Arctic increased, accelerating the Arctic amplification.

Description: Improving the representation of the hydrological cycle in atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) is one of the main challenges in modeling the Earth’s climate system. One way to evaluate model performance is to simulate the transport of water isotopes. Among those available, tritium is an extremely valuable tracer, because its content in the different reservoirs involved in the water cycle (stratosphere, troposphere, and ocean) varies by order of magnitude. Previous work incorporated natural tritium into Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Zoom (LMDZ)-iso, a version of the LMDZ general circulation model enhanced by water isotope diagnostics. Here for the first time, the anthropogenic tritium injected by each of the atmospheric nuclear bomb tests between 1945 and 1980 has been first estimated and further implemented in the model; it creates an opportunity to evaluate certain aspects of LDMZ over several decades by following the bomb tritium transient signal through the hydrological cycle. Simulations of tritium in water vapor and precipitation for the period 1950–2008, with both natural and anthropogenic components, are presented in this study. LMDZ-iso satisfactorily reproduces the general shape of the temporal evolution of tritium. However, LMDZ-iso simulates too high a bomb tritium peak followed by too strong a decrease of tritium in precipitation. The too diffusive vertical advection in AGCMs crucially affects the residence time of tritium in the stratosphere. This insight into model performance demonstrates that the implementation of tritium in an AGCM provides a new and valuable test of the modeled atmospheric transport, complementing water stable isotope modeling.

Description: Slope failure like in the Hinlopen/Yermak Megaslide is one of the major geohazards in a changing Arctic environment. We analysed hydroacoustic and 2D high-resolution seismic data from the apparently intact continental slope immediately north of the Hinlopen/Yermak Megaslide for signs of past and future instabilities. Our new bathymetry and seismic data show clear evidence for incipient slope instability. Minor slide deposits and an internally-deformed sedimentary layer near the base of the gas hydrate stability zone imply an incomplete failure event, most probably about 30000 years ago, contemporaneous to or shortly after the Hinlopen/Yermak Megaslide. An active gas reservoir at the base of the gas hydrate stability zone demonstrate that over-pressured fluids might have played a key role in the initiation of slope failure at the studied slope, but more importantly also for the giant HYM slope failure. To date, it is not clear, if the studied slope is fully preconditioned to fail completely in future or if it might be slowly deforming and creeping at present. We detected widespread methane seepage on the adjacent shallow shelf areas not sealed by gas hydrates.

Description: Variations in oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) measured from modern precipitation and geologic archives provide a promising tool for understanding modern and past climate dynamics and tracking elevation changes over geologic time. In areas of extreme topography, such as the Tibetan Plateau, the interpretation of δ18O has proven challenging. This study investigates the climate controls on temporal (daily and 6 h intervals) and spatial variations in present-day precipitation δ18O (δ18Op) across the Tibetan Plateau using a 30 year record produced from the European Centre/Hamburg ECHAM5-wiso global atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). Results indicate spatial and temporal agreement between model-predicted δ18Op and observations. Large daily δ18Op variations of 25 to +5‰ occur over the Tibetan Plateau throughout the 30 simulation years, along with interannual δ18Op variations of ~2‰. Analysis of extreme daily δ18Op indicates that extreme low values coincide with extreme highs in precipitation amount. During the summer, monsoon vapor transport from the north and southwest of the plateau generally corresponds with high δ18Op, whereas vapor transport from the Indian Ocean corresponds with average to low δ18Op. Thus, vapor source variations are one important cause of the spatial-temporal differences in δ18Op. Comparison of GCM and Rayleigh Distillation Model (RDM)-predicted δ18Op indicates a modest agreement for the Himalaya region (averaged over 86°–94°E), confirming application of the simpler RDM approach for estimating δ18Op lapse rates across Himalaya.

Description: Sea ice leads in the Arctic are important features that give rise to strong localized atmospheric heating; they provide the opportunity for vigorous biological primary production, and predicting leads may be of relevance for Arctic shipping. It is commonly believed that traditional sea ice models that employ elastic-viscous-plastic (EVP) rheologies are not capable of properly simulating sea ice deformation, including lead formation, and thus, new formulations for sea ice rheologies have been suggested. Here we show that classical sea ice models have skill in simulating the spatial and temporal variation of lead area fraction in the Arctic when horizontal resolution is increased (here 4.5 km in the Arctic) and when numerical convergence in sea ice solvers is considered, which is frequently neglected. The model results are consistent with satellite remote sensing data and discussed in terms of variability and trends of Arctic sea ice leads. It is found, for example, that wintertime lead area fraction during the last three decades has not undergone significant trends.

Description: The density of firn is an important property for monitoring and modeling the ice sheet as well as to model the pore close-off and thus to interpret ice core-based greenhouse gas records. One feature, which is still in debate, is the potential existence of an annual cycle of firn density in low-accumulation regions. Several studies describe or assume seasonally successive density layers, horizontally evenly distributed, as seen in radar data. On the other hand, high-resolution density measurements on firn cores in Antarctica and Greenland showed no clear seasonal cycle in the top few meters. A major caveat of most existing snow-pit and firn-core based studies is that they represent one vertical profile from a laterally heterogeneous density field. To overcome this, we created an extensive dataset of horizontal and vertical density data at Kohnen Station, Dronning Maud Land on the East Antarctic Plateau. We drilled and analyzed three 90 m long firn cores as well as 160 one meter long vertical profiles from two elongated snow trenches to obtain a two dimensional view of the density variations. The analysis of the 45 m wide and 1 m deep density fields reveals a seasonal cycle in density. However, the seasonality is overprinted by strong stratigraphic noise, making it invisible when analyzing single firn cores. Our density dataset extends the view from the local ice-core perspective to a hundred meter scale and thus supports linking spatially integrating methods such as radar and seismic studies to ice and firn cores.

Description: Deepwater circulation plays a central role in global climate. Compared with the Atlantic, the Pacific deepwater circulation’s history remains unclear. The Luzon overflow, a branch of the North Pacific deep water, determines the ventilation rate of the South China Sea (SCS) basin. Sedimentary magnetic properties in the SCS reflect millennial-scale fluctuations in deep current intensity and orientation. The data suggest a slightly stronger current at the Last Glacial Maximum compared to the Holocene. But, the most striking increase in deep current occurred during Heinrich stadial 1 (H1) and to a lesser extent during the Younger Dryas (YD). Results of a transient deglacial experiment suggest that the northeastern current strengthening at the entrance of the SCS during H1 and the YD, times of weak North Atlantic Deep Water formation, could be linked to enhanced formation of North Pacific Deep Water.

Description: In recent years extensive studies on the Earth’s climate system have been carried out by means of advanced complex network statistics. The great majority of these studies, however, have been focusing on investigating correlation structures within single climatic fields directly on or parallel to the Earth’s surface. Here, we develop a novel approach of node weighted coupled network measures to study correlations between ocean and atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics and construct 18 coupled climate networks, each consisting of two subnetworks. In all cases, one subnetwork represents monthly sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies, while the other is based on the monthly geopotential height (HGT) of isobaric surfaces at different pressure levels covering the troposphere as well as the lower stratosphere. The weighted cross-degree density proves to be consistent with the leading coupled pattern obtained from maximum covariance analysis. Network measures of higher order allow for a further analysis of the correlation structure between the two fields and consistently indicate that in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics the ocean is correlated with the atmosphere in a hierarchical fashion such that large areas of the ocean surface correlate with multiple statistically dissimilar regions in the atmosphere. Ultimately we show that this observed hierarchy is linked to large-scale atmospheric variability patterns, such as the Pacific North American pattern, forcing the ocean on monthly time scales.

Description: Spectral albedo and transmittance in the range 400-900nm were measured on three separate dates on less than 15 cm thick new Arctic sea ice growing on Kongsfjorden, Svalbard at 78: 9 degrees N, 11: 9 degrees E. Inherent optical properties, including absorption coefficients of particulate and dissolved material, were obtained from ice samples and fed into a radiative transfer model, which was used to analyze spectral albedo and transmittance and to study the influence of clouds and snow on these. Integrated albedo and transmittance for photosynthetically active radiation (400-900 nm) were in the range 0.17-0.21 and 0.77-0.86, respectively. The average albedo and transmittance of the total solar radiation energy were 0.16 and 0.51, respectively. Values inferred from the model indicate that the ice contained possibly up to 40% brine and only 0.6% bubbles. Angular redistribution of solar radiation by clouds and snow was found to influence both the wavelength-integrated value and the spectral shape of albedo and transmittance. In particular, local peaks and depressions in the spectral albedo and spectral transmittance were found for wavelengths within atmospheric absorption bands. Simulated and measured transmittance spectra were within 5% for most of the wavelength range, but deviated up to 25% in the vicinity of 800 nm, indicating the need for more optical laboratory measurements of pure ice, or improved modeling of brine optical properties in this near-infrared wavelength region.

Description: Spectral Radiation Buoys and ice mass balance buoys were deployed on first-year ice near the North Pole in April 2012 and 2013, collecting in-band (350-800nm) solar radiation and ice and snow mass balance data over the complete summer melt seasons. With complementary European ERA-Interim reanalysis, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2) analysis and satellite passive microwave data, we examine the evolution of atmospheric and surface melt conditions in the two differing melt seasons. Prevailing atmospheric conditions contributed to a longer and more continuous melt season in summer 2012 than in 2013, which was corroborated by in situ observations. ERA-Interim reanalysis data showed that longwave radiation likely played a key role in delaying the snowmelt onset in 2013. The earlier melt onset in 2012 reduced the albedo, providing a positive ice-albedo feedback at a time when solar insolation was high. Due to earlier melt onset and later freeze-up in 2012, more solar heat was deposited into the ice-ocean system than in 2013. Summer 2013 was characterized by later melt onset, intermittent freezing events and an earlier fall freeze-up, resulting in considerably fewer effective days of surface melt and a higher average albedo. Calculations for idealized seasonal albedo evolution show that moving the melt onset just 1week earlier in mid-June increases the total absorbed solar radiation by nearly 14% for the summer season. Therefore, the earlier melt onset may have been one of the most important factors driving the more dramatic melt season in 2012 than 2013, though atmospheric circulation patterns, e.g., cyclone in early August 2012, likely contributed as well.

Description: We present spatiotemporal mass balance trends for the Antarctic Ice Sheet from a statistical inversion of satellite altimetry, gravimetry, and elastic-corrected GPS data for the period 2003–2013. Our method simultaneously determines annual trends in ice dynamics, surface mass balance anomalies, and a time-invariant solution for glacio-isostatic adjustment while remaining largely independent of forward models. We establish that over the period 2003–2013, Antarctica has been losing mass at a rate of −84 ± 22 Gt yr−1, with a sustained negative mean trend of dynamic imbalance of −111 ± 13 Gt yr−1. West Antarctica is the largest contributor with −112 ± 10 Gt yr−1, mainly triggered by high thinning rates of glaciers draining into the Amundsen Sea Embayment. The Antarctic Peninsula has experienced a dramatic increase in mass loss in the last decade, with a mean rate of −28 ± 7 Gt yr−1 and significantly higher values for the most recent years following the destabilization of the Southern Antarctic Peninsula around 2010. The total mass loss is partly compensated by a significant mass gain of 56 ± 18 Gt yr−1 in East Antarctica due to a positive trend of surface mass balance anomalies.

Description: Amplification of global warming in Arctic and boreal regions is causing significant changes to permafrost-affected landscapes. The nature and extent of the change is complicated by ecological responses that take place across strong gradients in environmental conditions and disturbance regimes. Emerging remote sensing techniques based on a growing array of satellite and airborne platforms that cover a wide range of spatial and temporal scales increasingly allow robust detection of changes in permafrost landscapes. In this review, we summarise recent developments (2010 − 15) in remote sensing applications to detect and monitor landscape changes involving surface temperatures, snow cover, topography, surface water, vegetation cover and structure, and disturbances from fire and human activities. We then focus on indicators of degrading permafrost, including thermokarst lakes and drained lake basins, thermokarst bogs and fens, thaw slumps and active-layer detachment slides, thermal erosion gullies, thermokarst pits and troughs, and coastal erosion and flooding. Our review highlights the expanding sensor capabilities, new image processing and multivariate analysis techniques, enhanced public access to data and increasingly long image archives that are facilitating novel insights into the multi-decadal dynamics of permafrost landscapes. Remote sensing methods that appear especially promising for change detection include: repeat light detection and ranging, interferometric synthetic aperture radar and airborne geophysics for detecting topographic and subsurface changes; temporally dense analyses at high spatial resolution; and multi-sensor data fusion. Remotely sensed data are also becoming used more frequently as driving parameters in permafrost model and mapping schemes.

Description: The Mozambique Ridge, a prominent basement high in the southwestern Indian Ocean, consists of four major geomorphological segments associated with numerous phases of volcanic activity in the Lower Cretaceous. The nature and origin of the Mozambique Ridge have been intensely debated with one hypothesis suggesting a Large Igneous Province origin. High-resolution seismic reflection data reveal a large number of extrusion centres with a random distribution throughout the southern Mozambique Ridge and the nearby Transkei Rise. Intra-basement reflections emerge from the extrusion centres and are interpreted to represent massive lava flow sequences. Such lava flow sequences are characteristic of eruptions leading to the formation of continental and oceanic flood basalt provinces, hence supporting a Large Igneous Province origin of the Mozambique Ridge. We observe evidence for widespread post-sedimentary magmatic activity that we correlate with a southward propagation of the East African Rift System. Based on our volumetric analysis of the southern Mozambique Ridge we infer a rapid sequential emplacement between ~131 Ma and ~125 Ma, which is similar to the short formation periods of other Large Igneous Provinces like the Agulhas Plateau.

Description: Glacier-front dynamics is an important control on Greenland's ice mass balance. Warmer ocean waters trigger ice-front retreats of marine-terminating glaciers, and the corresponding loss in resistive stress leads to glacier acceleration and thinning. Here we present an approach to quantify the sensitivity and vulnerability of marine-terminating glaciers to ocean-induced melt. We develop a plan view model of Store Gletscher that includes a level set-based moving boundary capability, a parameterized ocean-induced melt, and a calving law with complete and precise land and fjord topographies to model the response of the glacier to increased melt. We find that the glacier is stabilized by a sill at its terminus. The glacier is dislodged from the sill when ocean-induced melt quadruples, at which point the glacier retreats irreversibly for 27 km into a reverse bed. The model suggests that ice-ocean interactions are the triggering mechanism of glacier retreat, but the bed controls its magnitude.

Description: Details of the characteristics of upward planetary wave propagation associated with Arctic sea-ice loss under present climate conditions are examined using reanalysis data and simulation results. Recent Arctic sea-ice loss results in increased stratospheric poleward eddy heat fluxes in the eastern and central Eurasia regions and enhanced upward propagation of planetary-scale waves in the stratosphere. A linear decomposition scheme reveals that this modulation of the planetary waves arises from coupling of the climatological planetary wave field with temperature anomalies for the eastern Eurasia region and with meridional wind anomalies for the central Eurasia region. Propagation of stationary Rossby wave packets results in a dynamic link between these temperature and meridional wind anomalies with sea-ice loss over the Barents–Kara Sea. The results provide strong evidence that recent Arctic sea-ice loss significantly modulates atmospheric circulation in winter to modify poleward eddy heat fluxes so as to drive stratosphere–troposphere coupling processes.

Description: Little is known about the production of fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM) in the anoxic oceanic sediments. In this study, sediment pore waters were sampled from four different sites in the Chukchi-East Siberian Seas area to examine the bulk dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and their optical properties. The production of FDOM, coupled with the increase of nutrients, was observed above the sulfate-methane-transition-zone (SMTZ). The presence of FDOM was concurrent with sulfate reduction and increased alkalinity (R2 〉 0.96, p 〈 0.0001), suggesting a link to organic matter degradation. This inference was supported by the positive correlation (R2 〉 0.95, p 〈 0.0001) between the net production of FDOM and the modeled degradation rates of particulate organic carbon sulfate reduction. The production of FDOM was more pronounced in a shallow shelf site S1 with a total net production ranging from 17.9 to 62.3 RU for different FDOM components above the SMTZ depth of ca. 4.1 mbsf, which presumably underwent more accumulation of particulate organic matter than the other three deeper sites. The sediments were generally found to be the sources of CDOM and FDOM to the overlying water column, unearthing a channel of generally bio-refractory and pre-aged DOM to the oceans.

Description: Digital grids of basement age of the world’s oceans are essential for modern geodynamic and paleoceanographic studies. Any such grid is built using a plate kinematic model, whose accuracy and reli- ability directly influence the accuracy and reliability of the grid. We present a seafloor age grid for the South Atlantic based on a recent high-resolution plate kinematic model. The grid is built from a data set of points whose ages are defined in or for the plate kinematic model, incorporating breaks at tectonic boundaries like fracture zones where the age function is discontinuous. We compare predictions of the new grid and of a previously published one, which is based on an older plate kinematic model, to magnetic isochron pick data sets. The comparison shows the new grid to provide a more reliable depiction of seafloor age in the South Atlantic. Numerical estimates of the new grid’s uncertainty are determined by interpolation between (1) misfits at grid cells coinciding with magnetic isochron ages, (2) misfits implied by locational uncertainties in predicted isochrons propagated from uncertainties in the plate kinematic model, and (3) by the proxim- ities of cells to fracture zone traces or ridge-jump scars. Estimated total uncertainty is 〈10 My for 94% of the grid and 〈5 My for 72%, but much larger in areas where magnetic anomaly data are scarce (such as the Cretaceous Normal Superchron) and in the vicinity of long-offset fracture zones.

Description: A multi-year mooring record (2007-2014) and satellite imagery highlight the strong temperature variability and unique hydrographic nature of the Laptev Sea. This Arctic shelf is a key region for river discharge and sea ice formation and export, and includes submarine permafrost and methane deposits, which emphasizes the need to understand the thermal variability near the seafloor. Recent years were characterized by early ice retreat and a warming near-shore environment. However, warming was not observed on the deeper shelf until year-round under-ice measurements recorded unprecedented warm near-bottom waters of +0.6°C in winter 2012/2013, just after the Arctic sea ice extent featured a record minimum. In the Laptev Sea, early ice retreat in 2012 combined with Lena River heat and solar radiation produced anomalously warm summer surface waters, which were vertically mixed, trapped in the pycnocline, and subsequently transferred toward the bottom until the water column cooled when brine rejection eroded stratification.

Description: Gravity surveying is challenging in Antarctica because of its hostile environment and inaccessibility. Nevertheless, many ground-based, airborne, and shipborne gravity campaigns have been completed by the geophysical and geodetic communities since the 1980s. We present the first modern Antarctic-wide gravity data compilation derived from 13 million data points covering an area of 10 million km2, which corresponds to 73% coverage of the continent. The remove-compute-restore technique was applied for gridding, which facilitated leveling of the different gravity data sets with respect to an Earth gravity model derived from satellite data alone. The resulting free-air and Bouguer gravity anomaly grids of 10 km resolution are publicly available. These grids will enable new high-resolution combined Earth gravity models to be derived and represent a major step forward toward solving the geodetic polar data gap problem. They provide a new tool to investigate continental-scale lithospheric structure and geological evolution of Antarctica.

Description: Skillful sea ice forecasts from days to years ahead are becoming increasingly important for the operation and planning of human activities in the Arctic. Here we analyze the potential predictability of the Arctic sea ice edge in six climate models. We introduce the integrated ice-edge error (IIEE), a user-relevant verification metric defined as the area where the forecast and the “truth” disagree on the ice concentration being above or below 15%. The IIEE lends itself to decomposition into an absolute extent error, corresponding to the common sea ice extent error, and a misplacement error. We find that the often-neglected misplacement error makes up more than half of the climatological IIEE. In idealized forecast ensembles initialized on 1 July, the IIEE grows faster than the absolute extent error. This means that the Arctic sea ice edge is less predictable than sea ice extent, particularly in September, with implications for the potential skill of end-user relevant forecasts.

Description: The deep southern component water (SCW), comprising Lower Circumpolar Deep Water (LCDW) and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), is a major component of the global oceanic circulation. It has been suggested that the deep Atlantic water mass structure changed significantly during the last glacial/interglacial cycle. However, deep SCW source-proximal records remain sparse. Here we present three coherent deep SCW paleocurrent records from the deep Argentine continental margin shedding light on deep water circulation and deep SCW flow strength in the Southwest Atlantic since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Based on increased sortable silt values, we propose enhanced deep SCW flow strength from 14 to 10 cal ka B.P. relative to the early deglacial/LGM and the Holocene. We propose a direct influence of deep northern component water (NCW) on deep SCW flow strength due to vertical narrowing of deep SCW spreading, concurrent with a migration of the high-energetic LCDW/AABW interface occupying our core sites. We suggest a shoaled NCW until 13 cal ka B.P., thereby providing space for deep SCW spreading that resulted in reduced carbonate preservation at our core sites. Increased carbonate content from 13 cal ka B.P. indicates that the NCW expanded changing deep water properties at our core sites in the deep Southwest Atlantic. However, southern sourced terrigenous sediments continued to be deposited at our core sites, suggesting that deep SCW flow was uninterrupted along the Argentine continental margin since the LGM.

Description: Measurements of late springtime nutrient concentrations in Arctic waters are relatively rare due to the extensive sea ice cover that makes sampling difficult. During the SUBICE cruise in May-June 2014, an extensive survey of hydrography and pre-bloom nutrient concentrations was conducted in the Chukchi Sea. Cold (〈 -1.5°C) winter water was prevalent throughout the Chukchi Sea shelf, and the water column was weakly stratified. Nitrate (NO3-) concentration averaged 12.6±1.92 µM in surface waters and 14.0±1.91 µM near the bottom and was significantly correlated with salinity. The highest NO3- concentrations were associated with winter water within the Central Channel flow path. NO3- concentrations were much reduced near the northern shelfbreak within the upper halocline waters of the Canada Basin and along the eastern side of the shelf near the Alaskan coast. Net community production (NCP), estimated as the difference in depth-integrated NO3- content between spring (this study) and summer (historical), varied from 28-38 g C m-2 a-1. This is much lower than previous NCP estimates using NO3- concentrations from the southeastern Bering Sea as a baseline. These results demonstrate the importance of using local profiles of NO3- measured as close to the beginning of the spring bloom as possible when estimating NCP.

Description: Climate trends in the Antarctic region remain poorly characterized, owing to the brevity and scarcity of direct climate observations and the large magnitude of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. Here, within the framework of the PAGES Antarctica2k working group, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records from Antarctica, consisting of 112 records. We produce both unweighted and weighted isotopic (δ18O) composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE, binned at 5- and 10-year resolution, for seven climatically distinct regions covering the Antarctic continent. Following earlier work of the Antarctica2k working group, we also produce composites and reconstructions for the broader regions of East Antarctica, West Antarctica and the whole continent. We use three methods for our temperature reconstructions: (i) a temperature scaling based on the δ18O–temperature relationship output from an ECHAM5-wiso model simulation nudged to ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalyses from 1979 to 2013, and adjusted for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet region to borehole temperature data, (ii) a temperature scaling of the isotopic normalized anomalies to the variance of the regional reanalysis temperature and (iii) a composite-plus-scaling approach used in a previous continent-scale reconstruction of Antarctic temperature since 1 CE but applied to the new Antarctic ice core database. Our new reconstructions confirm a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all Antarctic regions where records extend back into the 1st millennium, with the exception of the Wilkes Land coast and Weddell Sea coast regions. Within this long-term cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE, we find that the warmest period occurs between 300 and 1000 CE, and the coldest interval occurs from 1200 to 1900 CE. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Dronning Maud Land coast and the Antarctic Peninsula regions, and these trends are robust across the distribution of records that contribute to the unweighted isotopic composites and also significant in the weighted temperature reconstructions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of natural variability over the last 2000 years. However, projected warming of the Antarctic continent during the 21st century may soon see significant and unusual warming develop across other parts of the Antarctic continent. The extended Antarctica2k ice core isotope database developed by this working group opens up many avenues for developing a deeper understanding of the response of Antarctic climate to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings. The first long-term quantification of regional climate in Antarctica presented herein is a basis for data–model comparison and assessments of past, present and future driving factors of Antarctic climate.

Description: The Eger Rift is an active element of the European Cenozoic Rift System associated with intense Cenozoic intraplate alkaline volcanism and system of sedimentary basins. The intracontinental Cheb Basin at its western part displays geodynamic activity with fluid emanations, persistent seismicity, Cenozoic volcanism, and neotectonic crustal movements at the intersections of major intraplate faults. In this paper, we study detailed geometry of the crust/mantle boundary and its possible origin in the western Eger Rift. We review existing seismic and seismological studies, provide new interpretation of the reflection profile 9HR, and supplement it by new results from local seismicity. We identify significant lateral variations of the high-velocity lower crust and relate them to the distribution and chemical status of mantle-derived fluids and to xenolith studies from corresponding depths. New interpretation based on combined seismic and isotope study points to a local-scale magmatic emplacement at the base of the continental crust within a new rift environment. This concept of magmatic underplating is supported by detecting two types of the lower crust: a high-velocity lower crust with pronounced reflectivity and a high-velocity reflection-free lower crust. The character of the underplated material enables to differentiate timing and tectonic setting of two episodes with different times of origin of underplating events. The lower crust with high reflectivity evidences magmatic underplating west of the Eger Rift of the Late Variscan age. The reflection-free lower crust together with a strong reflector at its top at depths of ~28–30 km forms a magma body indicating magmatic underplating of the late Cenozoic (middle and upper Miocene) to recent. Spatial and temporal relations to recent geodynamic processes suggest active magmatic underplating in the intracontinental setting.

Description: Antarctica is the largest reservoir of ice on Earth. Understanding its ice sheet dynamics is crucial to unraveling past global climate change and making robust climatic and sea level predictions. Of the basic parameters that shape and control ice flow, the most poorly known is geothermal heat flux. Direct observations of heat flux are difficult to obtain in Antarctica, and until now continent-wide heat flux maps have only been derived from low-resolution satellite magnetic and seismological data. We present a high-resolution heat flux map and associated uncertainty derived from spectral analysis of the most advanced continental compilation of airborne magnetic data. Small-scale spatial variability and features consistent with known geology are better reproduced than in previous models, between 36% and 50%. Our high-resolution heat flux map and its uncertainty distribution provide an important new boundary condition to be used in studies on future subglacial hydrology, ice sheet dynamics, and sea level change.

Description: The evidence from both data and models indicates that specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S[X]—the global annual mean surface temperature change (ΔTg) as a response to a change in radiative forcing X (ΔR[X])—is state dependent. Such a state dependency implies that the best fit in the scatterplot of ΔTg versus ΔR[X] is not a linear regression but can be some nonlinear or even nonsmooth function. While for the conventional linear case the slope (gradient) of the regression is correctly interpreted as the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S[X], the interpretation is not straightforward in the nonlinear case. We here explain how such a state-dependent scatterplot needs to be interpreted and provide a theoretical understanding—or generalization—how to quantify S[X] in the nonlinear case. Finally, from data covering the last 2.1 Myr we show that—due to state dependency—the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity which considers radiative forcing of CO2 and land ice sheet (LI) albedo, math formula, is larger during interglacial states than during glacial conditions by more than a factor 2.

Description: We present vertically resolved observations of aerosol composition during pristine summertime Arctic background conditions. The methansulfonic acid (MSA)-to-sulfate ratio peaked near the surface (mean 0.10), indicating a contribution from ocean-derived biogenic sulfur. Similarly, the organic aerosol (OA)-to-sulfate ratio increased toward the surface (mean 2.0). Both MSA-to-sulfate and OA-to-sulfate ratios were significantly correlated with FLEXPART-WRF-predicted air mass residence time over open water, indicating marine-influenced OA. External mixing of sea salt aerosol from a larger number fraction of organic, sulfate, and amine-containing particles, together with low wind speeds (median 4.7 m s−1), suggests a role for secondary organic aerosol formation. Cloud condensation nuclei concentrations were nearly constant (∼120 cm−3) when the OA fraction was 〈60% and increased to 350 cm−3 when the organic fraction was larger and residence times over open water were longer. Our observations illustrate the importance of marine-influenced OA under Arctic background conditions, which are likely to change as the Arctic transitions to larger areas of open water.

Description: Arctic sea ice has displayed significant thinning as well as an increase in drift speed in recent years. Taken together this suggests an associated rise in sea ice deformation rate. A winter and spring expedition to the sea ice covered region north of Svalbard–the Norwegian young sea ICE2015 expedition (N-ICE2015)—gave an opportunity to deploy extensive buoy arrays and to monitor the deformation of the first-year and secondyear ice now common in the majority of the Arctic Basin. During the 5 month long expedition, the ice cover underwent several strong deformation events, including a powerful storm in early February that damaged the ice cover irreversibly. The values of total deformation measured during N-ICE2015 exceed previously measured values in the Arctic Basin at similar scales: At 100 km scale, N-ICE2015 values averaged above 0.1 d-1, compared to rates of 0.08 d-1 or less for previous buoy arrays. The exponent of the power law between the deformation length scale and total deformation developed over the season from 0.37 to 0.54 with an abrupt increase immediately after the early February storm, indicating a weakened ice cover with more free drift of the sea ice floes. Our results point to a general increase in deformation associated with the younger and thinner Arctic sea ice and to a potentially destructive role of winter storms.

Description: Large units of disrupted radiostratigraphy (UDR) are visible in many radio-echo sounding data sets from the Greenland Ice Sheet. This study investigates whether supercooling freeze-on rates at the bed can cause the observed UDR. We use a subglacial hydrology model to calculate both freezing and melting rates at the base of the ice sheet in a distributed sheet and within basal channels. We find that while supercooling freeze-on is a phenomenon that occurs in many areas of the ice sheet, there is no discernible correlation with the occurrence of UDR. The supercooling freeze-on rates are so low that it would require tens of thousands of years with minimal downstream ice motion to form the hundreds of meters of disrupted radiostratigraphy. Overall, the melt rates at the base of the ice sheet greatly overwhelm the freeze-on rates, which has implications for mass balance calculations of Greenland ice.

Description: The denudation history of active orogens is often interpreted in the context of modern climate gradients. Here we address the validity of this approach and ask what are the spatial and temporal variations in palaeoclimate for a latitudinally diverse range of active orogens? We do this using high-resolution (T159, ca. 80 × 80 km at the Equator) palaeoclimate simulations from the ECHAM5 global atmospheric general circulation model and a statistical cluster analysis of climate over different orogens (Andes, Himalayas, SE Alaska, Pacific NW USA). Time periods and boundary conditions considered include the Pliocene (PLIO, ∼3Ma), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21ka), mid-Holocene (MH, ∼6ka), and pre-industrial (PI, reference year 1850). The regional simulated climates of each orogen are described by means of cluster analyses based on the variability in precipitation, 2 m air temperature, the intra-annual amplitude of these values, and monsoonal wind speeds where appropriate. Results indicate the largest differences in the PI climate existed for the LGM and PLIO climates in the form of widespread cooling and reduced precipitation in the LGM and warming and enhanced precipitation during the PLIO. The LGM climate shows the largest deviation in annual precipitation from the PI climate and shows enhanced precipitation in the temperate Andes and coastal regions for both SE Alaska and the US Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, LGM precipitation is reduced in the western Himalayas and enhanced in the eastern Himalayas, resulting in a shift of the wettest regional climates eastward along the orogen. The cluster-analysis results also suggest more climatic variability across latitudes east of the Andes in the PLIO climate than in other time slice experiments conducted here. Taken together, these results highlight significant changes in late Cenozoic regional climatology over the last ∼3Myr. Comparison of simulated climate with proxy-based reconstructions for the MH and LGM reveal satisfactory to good performance of the model in reproducing precipitation changes, although in some cases discrepancies between neighbouring proxy observations highlight contradictions between proxy observations themselves. Finally, we document regions where the largest magnitudes of late Cenozoic changes in precipitation and temperature occur and offer the highest potential for future observational studies that quantify the impact of climate change on denudation and weathering rates.

Description: The detailed Holocene inundation history of the Bermuda North Lagoon may be used as model for transgressive and highstand sequences in carbonate platforms. Sedimentation and facies development were controlled largely by sea‐level rise and antecedent topography. Four late Pleistocene to Holocene sequences may be identified in North Lagoon based on a combined analysis of 200 km shallow reflection seismics and 39 cores including 29 radiometric and U/Th‐ages. The sequences were deposited during sea‐level highstands and are separated by subaerial exposure horizons that formed during sea‐level lowstands. Sequence 1 (inferred MIS 7) consists of well‐cemented carbonate sands. Sequence 2 (MIS 5) is up to 20 m thick and consists of well‐sorted, inter‐reefal sands and reef sediments with mound‐like structures. Sequence 3 (inferred MIS 3) is up to ca 6 m thick and accumulated in topographic lows of the underlying sequences some 20 m below modern sea‐level. Sequence 4 (MIS 1, Holocene) includes lagoonal sediments up to 10 m thick, and reefs that accumulated on topographic highs of the MIS 5 sequences. Holocene sediments in topographic lows include peat, peaty sediment, freshwater mud, restricted marine carbonates, and open lagoonal carbonate sediments deposited in seagrass beds, shallow water, and deeper lagoon areas. Upward fining is an expression of deepening and the development of a reef‐protected lagoon environment. Holocene sedimentation on topographic highs usually lacks freshwater and transitional facies and starts with shallow marine mollusc shell accumulations overlain by carbonate sediments that show fining upward. Packstone (68%), wackestone (22%), grainstone (9%) and mudstone (1%) textures occur in cores, with Halimeda, molluscs, coralline algae and foraminifera being the most common constituent particles; coral fragments are rare. During the Holocene, an estimated volume of 1 km3 of carbonate sediments was deposited in North Lagoon. Average sedimentation rates are estimated to be 0.32 m/kyr.

Description: Stable water isotope records from Antarctica are key for our understanding of Quaternary climate variations. However, the exact quantitative interpretation of these important climate proxy records in terms of surface temperature, ice sheet height and other climatic changes is still a matter of debate. Here we report results obtained with an atmospheric general circulation model equipped with water isotopes, run at a high-spatial horizontal resolution of one-by-one degree. Comparing different glacial maximum ice sheet reconstructions, a best model data match is achieved for the PMIP3 reconstruction. Reduced West Antarctic elevation changes between 400 and 800 m lead to further improved agreement with ice core data. Our modern and glacial climate simulations support the validity of the isotopic paleothermometer approach based on the use of present-day observations and reveal that a glacial ocean state as displayed in the GLAMAP reconstruction is suitable for capturing the observed glacial isotope changes in Antarctic ice cores.

Description: A climatically-induced acceleration in ocean-driven melting of Antarctic ice shelves would have consequences for both the discharge of continental ice into the ocean and thus global sea level, and for the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water and the oceanic meridional overturning circulation. Using a novel gas-tight in-situ water sampler, noble gas samples have been collected from six locations beneath the Filchner Ice Shelf, the first such samples from beneath an Antarctic Ice shelf. Helium and neon are uniquely suited as tracers of glacial meltwater in the ocean. Basal meltwater fractions range from 3.6% near the ice shelf base to 0.5% near the sea floor, with distinct regional differences. We estimate an average basal melt rate for the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf of 177 ± 95 Gt/year, independently confirming previous results. We calculate that up to 2.7% of the meltwater has been refrozen, and we identify a local source of crustal helium.

Description: We investigate the impact of different CO2 levels and different subarctic gateway configurations on the surface temperatures during the latest Cretaceous using the Earth System Model COSMOS. The simulated temperatures are compared with the surface temperature reconstructions based on a recent compilation of the latest Cretaceous proxies. In our numerical experiments, the CO2 level ranges from 1 to 6 times the preindustrial (PI) CO2 level of 280 ppm. On a global scale, the most reasonable match between modeling and proxy data is obtained for the experiments with 3 to 5 × PI CO2 concentrations. However, the simulated low- (high-) latitude temperatures are too high (low) as compared to the proxy data. The moderate CO2 levels scenarios might be more realistic, if we take into account proxy data and the dead zone effect criterion. Furthermore, we test if the model-data discrepancies can be caused by too simplistic proxy-data interpretations. This is distinctly seen at high latitudes, where most proxies are biased toward summer temperatures. Additional sensitivity experiments with different ocean gateway configurations and constant CO2 level indicate only minor surface temperatures changes (〈~1°C) on a global scale, with higher values (up to ~8°C) on a regional scale. These findings imply that modeled and reconstructed temperature gradients are to a large degree only qualitatively comparable, providing challenges for the interpretation of proxy data and/or model sensitivity. With respect to the latter, our results suggest that an assessment of greenhouse worlds is best constrained by temperatures in the midlatitudes.

Description: State-of-the-art Arctic Ocean mean sea surface (MSS) models and global geoid models (GGMs) are used to support sea ice freeboard estimation from satellite altimeters, as well as in oceanographic studies such as mapping sea level anomalies and mean dynamic ocean topography. However, errors in a given model in the high frequency domain, primarily due to unresolved gravity features, can result in errors in the estimated along-track freeboard. These errors are exacerbated in areas with a sparse lead distribution in consolidated ice pack conditions. Additionally model errors can impact ocean geostrophic currents, derived from satellite altimeter data, while remaining biases in these models may impact longer-term, multi-sensor oceanographic time-series of sea level change in the Arctic. This study focuses on an assessment of five state-of-the-art Arctic MSS models (UCL13/04, DTU15/13/10) and a commonly used GGM (EGM2008). We describe errors due to unresolved gravity features, inter-satellite biases, and remaining satellite orbit errors, and their impact on the derivation of sea ice freeboard. The latest MSS models, incorporating CryoSat-2 sea surface height measurements, show improved definition of gravity features, such as the Gakkel Ridge. The standard deviation between models ranges 0.03-0.25 m. The impact of remaining MSS/GGM errors on freeboard retrieval can reach several decimeters in parts of the Arctic. While the maximum observed freeboard difference found in the central Arctic was 0.59 m (UCL13 MSS minus EGM2008 GGM), the standard deviation in freeboard differences is 0.03-0.06 m.

Description: A dominant Antarctic ecological paradigm suggests that winter sea ice is generally the main feeding ground for krill larvae. Observations from our winter cruise to the southwest Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean contradict this view and present the first evidence that the pack-ice zone is a food-poor habitat for larval development. In contrast, the more open marginal ice zone provides a more favourable food environment for high larval krill growth rates. We found that complex under-ice habitats are, however, vital for larval krill when water column productivity is limited by light, by providing structures that offer protec- tion from predators and to collect organic material released from the ice. The larvae feed on this sparse ice-associated food during the day. After sunset, they migrate into the water below the ice (upper 20 m) and drift away from the ice areas where they have previously fed. Model analyses indicate that this behaviour increases both food uptake in a patchy food environment and the likelihood of overwinter transport to areas where feeding conditions are more favourable in spring.

Description: Ozonesonde data from four sites are analyzed in relation to 191 solar protons events (SPEs) from 1989-2016. Analysis shows ozone depletion (~10-35 km altitude) commencing following the SPEs. Seasonally-corrected ozone data demonstrate that depletions occur only in winter/early-spring above sites where the northern hemisphere polar vortex (PV) can be present. A rapid reduction in stratospheric ozone is observed with the maximum decrease occurring ~10-20 days after SPEs. Ozone levels remain depleted in excess of 30 days. No depletion is observed above sites completely outside the PV. No depletion is observed in relation to 191 random epochs at any site at any time of year. Results point to the role of indirect ozone destruction, most likely via the rapid descent of long-lived NOx species in the PV during the polar winter.

Description: There is a strong spatial correlation between submarine slope failures and the occurrence of gas hydrates. This has been attributed to the dynamic nature of gas hydrate systems and the potential reduction of slope stability due to bottom water warming or sea level drop. However, 30 years of research into this process found no solid supporting evidence. Here we present new reflection seismic data from the Arctic Ocean and numerical modelling results supporting a different link between hydrates and slope stability. Hydrates reduce sediment permeability and cause build-up of overpressure at the base of the gas hydrate stability zone. Resulting hydro-fracturing forms pipe structures as pathways for overpressured fluids to migrate upward. Where these pipe structures reach shallow permeable beds, this overpressure transfers laterally and destabilises the slope. This process reconciles the spatial correlation of submarine landslides and gas hydrate, and it is independent of environmental change and water depth.

Description: Outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice Sheet transport ice from the interior to the ocean and contribute directly to sea level rise because because discharge and ablation often exceed the accumulation. To develop a better understanding of these fast flowing glaciers, we investigate the basal conditions of Store Glacier, a large outlet glacier flowing into Uummannaq Fjord in West Greenland. We use two crossing seismic profiles acquired near the centreline, 30 km upstream of the calving front, to interpret the physical nature of the ice and bed. We identify one notably englacial and two notably subglacial seismic reflections on both profiles. The englacial reflection represents a change in crystal orientation fabric, interpreted to be the Holocene–Wisconsin transition. From Amplitude Versus Angle (AVA) analysis we infer that the deepest ∼80 m of ice of the parallel-flow profile below this reflection is anisotropic with an enhancement of simple shear of ∼2. The ice is underlain by ∼45 m of unconsolidated sediments, below which there is a strong reflection caused by the transition to consolidated sediments. In the across-flow profile subglacial properties vary over small scale and the polarity of the ice–bed reflection switches from positive to negative. We interpret these as patches of different basal slipperiness associated with variable amounts of water. Our results illustrate variability in basal properties, and hence ice-bed coupling, at a spatial scale of ∼100 m, highlighting the need for direct observations of the bed to improve the basal boundary conditions in ice-dynamic models.

Description: Arctic tundra landscapes are composed of a complex mosaic of patterned ground features, varying in soil moisture, vegetation composition, and surface hydrology over small spatial scales (10–100 m). The importance of microtopography and associated geomorphic landforms in influencing ecosystem structure and function is well founded, however, spatial data products describing local to regional scale distribution of patterned ground or polygonal tundra geomorphology are largely unavailable. Thus, our understanding of local impacts on regional scale processes (e.g., carbon dynamics) may be limited. We produced two key spatiotemporal datasets spanning the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (~60,000 km2) to evaluate climate-geomorphological controls on arctic tundra productivity change, using (1) a novel 30m classification of polygonal tundra geomorphology and (2) decadal-trends in surface greenness using the Landsat archive (1999–2014). These datasets can be easily integrated and adapted in an array of local to regional applications such as (1) upscaling plot-level measurements (e.g., carbon/energy fluxes), (2) mapping of soils, vegetation, or permafrost, and/or (3) initializing ecosystem biogeochemistry, hydrology, and/or habitat modeling.

Description: The field of Arctic sea ice prediction on “weather time scales” is still in its infancy with little existing understanding of the limits of predictability. This is especially true for sea ice deformation along so-called Linear Kinematic Features (LKFs) including leads that are relevant for marine operations. Here the potential predictability of the sea ice pack in the wintertime Arctic up to ten days ahead is determined, exploiting the fact that sea ice-ocean models start to show skill at representing sea ice deformation at high spatial resolutions. Results are based on ensemble simulations with a high-resolution sea ice-ocean model driven by atmospheric ensemble forecasts. The predictability of LKFs as measured by different metrics drops quickly, with predictability being almost completely lost after 4–8 days. In contrast, quantities such as sea ice concentration or the location of the ice edge retain high levels of predictability throughout the full 10-day forecast period. It is argued that the rapid error growth for LKFs is mainly due to the chaotic behaviour of the atmosphere associated with the low predictability of near surface wind divergence and vorticity; initial condition uncertainty for ice thickness is found to be of minor importance as long as LKFs are initialized at the right locations.

Description: Species flocks (SFs) fascinate evolutionary biologists who wonder whether such striking diversification can be driven by normal evolutionary processes. Multiple definitions of SFs have hindered the study of their origins. Previous studies identified a monophyletic taxon as a SF if it displays high speciosity in an area in which it is endemic (criterion 1), high ecological diversity among species (criterion 2), and if it dominates the habitat in terms of biomass (criterion 3); we used these criteria in our analyses. Our starting hypothesis is that normal evolutionary processes may provide a sufficient explanation for most SFs. We thus clearly separate each criterion and identify which biological (intrinsic) and environmental (extrinsic) traits are most favourable to their realization. The first part focuses on evolutionary processes. We highlight that some popular putative causes of SFs, such as key innovations or ecological speciation, are neither necessary nor sufficient to fulfill some or all of the three criteria. Initial differentiation mechanisms are diverse and difficult to identify a posteriori because a primary differentiation of one type (genetic, ecological or geographical) often promotes other types of differentiation. Furthermore, the criteria are not independent: positive feedbacks between speciosity and ecological diversity among species are expected whatever the initial cause of differentiation, and ecological diversity should enhance habitat dominance at the clade level. We then identify intrinsic and extrinsic factors that favour each criterion. Low dispersal emerges as a convincing driver of speciosity. Except for a genomic architecture favouring ecological speciation, for which assessment is difficult, high effective population sizes are the single intrinsic factor that directly enhances speciosity, ecological diversity and habitat dominance. No extrinsic factor appeared to enhance all criteria simultaneously but a combination of factors (insularity, fragmentation and environmental stability) may favour the three criteria, although the effect is indirect for habitat dominance. We then apply this analytical framework to Antarctic marine environments by analysing data from 18 speciose clades belonging to echinoderms (five unrelated clades), notothenioid fishes (five clades) and peracarid crustaceans (eight clades). Antarctic shelf environments and history appear favourable to endemicity and speciosity, but not to ecological specialization. Two main patterns are distinguished among taxa. (i) In echinoderms, many brooding, species‐rich and endemic clades are reported, but without remarkable ecological diversity or habitat dominance. In these taxa, loss of the larval stage is probably a consequence of past Antarctic environmental factors, and brooding is suggested to be responsible for enhanced allopatric speciation (via dispersal limitation). (ii) In notothenioids and peracarids, many clades fulfill all three SF criteria. This could result from unusual features in fish and crustaceans: chromosome instability and key innovations (antifreeze proteins) in notothenioids, ecological opportunity in peracarids, and a genomic architecture favouring ecological speciation in both groups. Therefore, the data do not support our starting point that normal evolutionary factors or processes drive SFs because in these two groups uncommon intrinsic features or ecological opportunity provide the best explanation. The utility of the three‐criterion SF concept is therefore questioned and guidelines are given for future studies.

Description: In austral spring 2016 the Antarctic region experienced anomalous sea ice retreat in all sectors, with sea ice extent in October and November 2016 being the lowest in the Southern Hemisphere over the observational period (1979–present). The extreme sea ice retreat was accompanied by widespread warming along the coastal areas as well as in the interior of the Antarctic continent. This exceptional event occurred along with a strong negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the moistest and warmest spring on record, over large areas covering the Indian Ocean, the Ross Sea and the Weddell Sea. In October 2016, the positive anomalies of the totally integrated water vapor (IWV) and 2 m air temperature (T2m) over the Indian Ocean, western Pacific, Bellingshausen Sea and southern part of Ross Sea were unprecedented in the last 39 years. In October and November 2016, when the largest magnitude of negative daily sea ice concentration anomalies was observed, repeated episodes of poleward advection of warm and moist air took place. These results suggest the importance of moist and warm air intrusions into the Antarctic region as one of the main contributors to this exceptional sea ice retreat event.

Description: Iron (Fe), cobalt (Co), and vitamin B12 addition experiments were performed in the eastern Equatorial Pacific/Peruvian upwelling zone during the 2015 El Niño event. Near the Peruvian coastline, apparent photosystem II photochemical efficiencies (Fv/Fm) were unchanged by nutrient addition and chlorophyll a tripled in untreated controls over 2 days, indicating nutrient replete conditions. Conversely, Fe amendment further away from the coastline in the high nitrate, low Fe zone significantly increased Fv/Fm and chlorophyll a concentrations. Mean chlorophyll a was further enhanced following supply of Fe + Co and Fe + B12 relative to Fe alone, but this was not statistically significant; further offshore, reported Co depletion relative to Fe could enhance responses. The persistence of Fe limitation in this system under a developing El Niño, as previously demonstrated under non-El Niño conditions, suggests that diminished upwelled Fe is likely an important factor driving reductions in offshore phytoplankton productivity during these events. Plain Language Summary: Phytoplankton productivity in the Equatorial Pacific is critical for curbing CO2 outgassing from upwelling waters and sustaining globally important fisheries. We tested which micronutrients were limiting phytoplankton growth in the Equatorial Pacific during the 2015 El Niño. To date evidence for nutrient limitation status during these events remains indirect. We show iron is limiting offshore of Peru and that cobalt or vitamin B12 could be approaching limitation, with limitation by the latter micronutrients possibly becoming more important further offshore. Linked to satellite data, the new results shed light on critical controls on marine productivity in this biogeochemically/economically important region. Our results suggest reduced upwelled iron-predicted under El Niño conditions would be primarily responsible for observed offshore Peru productivity decreases.

Description: The climate of the Sahara and Arabian Deserts during the Little Ice Age is not well known, due to a lack of annually resolved natural and documentary archives. We present an annual reconstruction of temperature and aridity derived from Sr/Ca and oxygen isotopes in a coral of the desert‐surrounded northern Red Sea. Our data indicate that the eastern Sahara and Arabian Deserts did not experience pronounced cooling during the late Little Ice Age (~1750–1850) but suggest an even more arid mean climate than in the following ~150 years. The mild temperatures are broadly in line with predominantly negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation during the Little Ice Age. The more arid climate is best explained by meridional advection of dry continental air from Eurasia. We find evidence for an abrupt termination of the more arid climate after 1850, coincident with a reorganization of the atmospheric circulation over Europe.

Description: Abstract Waterbodies in the arctic permafrost zone are considered a major source of the greenhouse gas methane (CH4) in addition to CH4 emissions from arctic wetlands. However, the spatio-temporal variability of CH4 fluxes from waterbodies compli- cates spatial extrapolation of CH4 measurements from single waterbodies. There- fore, their contribution to the CH4 budget of the arctic permafrost zone is not yet well understood. Using the example of two study areas of 1,000 km2 each in the Mackenzie Delta, Canada, we approach this issue (i) by analyzing correlations on the landscape scale between numerous waterbodies and CH4 fluxes and (ii) by analyzing the influence of the spatial resolution of CH4 flux data on the detected relation- ships. A CH4 flux map with a resolution of 100 m was derived from two aircraft eddy-covariance campaigns in the summers of 2012 and 2013. We combined the CH4 flux map with high spatial resolution (2.5 m) waterbody maps from the Per- mafrost Region Pond and Lake Database and classified the waterbody depth based on Sentinel-1 SAR backscatter data. Subsequently, we reduced the resolution of the CH4 flux map to analyze if different spatial resolutions of CH4 flux data affected the detectability of relationships between waterbody coverage, number, depth, or size and the CH4 flux. We did not find consistent correlations between waterbody characteristics and the CH4 flux in the two study areas across the different resolu- tions. Our results indicate that waterbodies in permafrost landscapes, even if they seem to be emission hot spots on an individual basis or contain zones of above average emissions, do currently not necessarily translate into significant CH4 emis- sion hot spots on a regional scale, but their role might change in a warmer climate. KEYWORDS airborne eddy-covariance, Arctic, CH4, lakes, ponds, remote sensing, Sentinel-1, TerraSAR-X

Description: To resolve the mechanisms behind the major climate reorganisation which occurred between 0.9 and 1.2Ma, the recovery of a suitable 1.5 million-year-old ice core is fundamental. The quest for such an Oldest Ice core requires a number of key boundary conditions, of which the poorly known basal geothermal heat flux (GHF) is lacking. We use a transient thermodynamical 1D vertical model that solves for the rate of change of temperature in the vertical, with surface temperature and modelled GHF as boundary conditions. For each point on the ice sheet, the model is forced with variations in atmospheric conditions over the last 2Ma, and modelled ice-thickness variations. The process is repeated for a range of GHF values to determine the value of GHF that marks the limit between frozen and melting conditions over the whole ice sheet, taking into account 2Ma of climate history. These threshold values of GHF are statistically compared to existing GHF data sets. The new probabilistic GHF fields obtained for the ice sheet thus provide the missing boundary conditions in the search for Oldest Ice. High spatial resolution radar data are examined locally in the Dome Fuji and Dome C regions, as these represent the ice core community's primary drilling sites. GHF, bedrock variability, ice thickness and other essential criteria combined highlight a dozen major potential Oldest Ice sites in the vicinity of Dome Fuji and Dome C, where GHF allows for Oldest Ice.