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  • Articles  (598)
  • climate change  (165)
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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
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    Springer
    Journal of paleolimnology 23 (2000), S. 49-56 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: Trichoptera ; caddisflies ; late glacial ; Allerød ; Younger Dryas ; early Holocene ; Kråkenes ; palaeolimnology ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Fossil Trichoptera (caddisfly) remains have been identified and quantitatively recorded in the late-glacial and early-Holocene sediments from Kråkenes Lake, western Norway. The sediment sequence was deposited between 12,300 and 8850 14C BP, covering the Allerød, Younger Dryas, and early-Holocene periods. The first Trichoptera were recorded at 12,000 14C BP, and during the Allerod a diverse assemblage of Limnephilidae taxa developed in the lake. By about 11,400 14C BP the relatively thermophilous Polycentropus flavomaculatus and Limnephilus rhombicus were present, suggesting that the summer water temperature was at least 17 °C. This temperature fell by 5-8 °C at the start of the Younger Dryas, and the thermophilous taxa were replaced within 20-40 14C yrs by Apatania spp., including the arctic-alpine A. zonella, suggesting a maximum summer water temperature of 10-12 °C. The Trichoptera assemblage was impoverished in numbers and in diversity over the next 200 yrs as the severe conditions of the Younger Dryas developed. As soon as temperatures rose and glacial meltwater and silt input ended about 700 14C yrs later, the resident Apatania assemblage expanded immediately, within 10 yrs. About 130 yrs later, thermophilous taxa replaced Apatania, and a much more diverse assemblage than in the Allerod occupied the varied habitats made available by the development of the Holocene lake ecosystem. The 130 yr delay may have been caused by a gradual temperature increase crossing a critical threshold, or by the time taken for thermophilous taxa to migrate from their Younger Dryas refugia.
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  • 2
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: Lake Baikal ; diatoms ; biogenic silica ; Eemian ; climate change ; Siberia
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The discussion on climatic instability observed in Greenland ice cores during the Eemian period (substage 5e) resulted in discovery of a pronounced mid-Eemian cooling event. We report that the mid-Eemian cooling is found for the first time in the biogenic silica climatic record and microfossil abundance record of Lake Baikal. Timing of this event in Lake Baikal correlates well with timing of the European pollen records and marine sedimentary records. The presence of the mid-Eemian cooling signal in the Lake Baikal record suggests a much closer link between Asian climate influenced by strong pressure fields over the vast land masses and the climate-controlling processes in the North Atlantic during interglacial periods, than what was generally believed. Furthermore, the Lake Baikal record suggests that after the mid-Eemian cooling, the climatic conditions returned close to the warmth of the 5e optimum and thus argues that the warm conditions of the last interglacial persisted in Siberia throughout 5e, and did not end with the mid-Eemian cooling as suggested by several published marine records.
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  • 3
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    Journal of paleolimnology 24 (2000), S. 1-13 
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: Arctic ; Holocene ; paleohydrology ; paleolimnology ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Although paleoclimatic research in the Arctic has most often focused on variations in temperature, the Arctic has also experienced changes in hydrologic balance. Changes in Arctic precipitation and evaporation rates affects soils, permafrost, lakes, wetlands, rivers, ice and vegetation. Changes in Arctic soils, permafrost, runoff, and vegetation can influence global climate by changing atmospheric methane and carbon dioxide concentrations, thermohaline circulation, and high latitude albedo. Documenting past variations in Arctic hydrological conditions is important for understanding Arctic climate and the potential response and role of the Arctic in regards to future climate change. Methods for reconstructing past changes in Arctic hydrology from the stratigraphic, isotopic, geochemical and fossil records of lake sediments are being developed, refined and applied in a number of regions. These records suggest that hydrological variations in the Arctic have been regionally asynchronous, reflecting the impacts of different forcing factors including orbitally controlled insolation changes, changes in geography related to coastal emergence, ocean currents, sea ice extent, and atmospheric circulation. Despite considerable progress, much work remains to be done on the development of paleohydrological proxies and their application to the Arctic.
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  • 4
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: diatoms ; climate change ; temperature ; pH ; transfer functions ; lake sediments
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The relationships between diatoms (Bacillariophyceae) in surface sediments of lakes and summer air temperature, pH and total organic carbon concentration (TOC) were explored along a steep climatic gradient in northern Sweden to provide a tool to infer past climate conditions from sediment cores. The study sites are in an area with low human impact and range from boreal forest to alpine tundra. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) constrained to mean July air temperature and pH clearly showed that diatom community composition was different between lakes situated in conifer-, mountain birch- and alpine-vegetation zones. As a consequence, diatoms and multivariate ordination methods can be used to infer past changes in treeline position and dominant forest type. Quantitative inference models were developed to estimate mean July air temperature, pH and TOC from sedimentary diatom assemblages using weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression. Relationships between diatoms and mean July air temperature were independent of lake-water pH, TOC, alkalinity and maximum depth. The results demonstrated that diatoms in lake sediments can provide useful and independent quantitative information for estimating past changes in mean July air temperature (R2 jack = 0.62, RMSEP = 0.86 °C; R2 and root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) based on jack-knifing), pH (R2 jack = 0.61, RMSEP = 0.30) and TOC (R2 jack = 0.49, RMSEP = 1.33 mg l-1). The paper focuses mainly on the relationship between diatom community composition and mean July air temperature, but the relationships to pH and TOC are also discussed.
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  • 5
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: carbon storage ; lake sediment ; Holocene ; Canada ; climate change ; organic matter
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract This paper reports a first estimate of the Holocene lake sediment carbon pool in Alberta, Canada. The organic matter content of lake sediment does not appear to depend strongly on lake size or other limnological parameters, allowing a simple first estimate in which we assume all Alberta lake sediment to have the same organic matter content. Alberta lake sediments sequester about 15 g C m-2 yr-1, for a provincial total of 0.23 Tg C yr-1, or 2.3 Pg C over the Holocene. Alberta lakes may represent as much as 1/1700 of total global, annual permanent carbon sequestration.
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  • 6
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 21-36 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: integrated assessment ; climate change ; regional sustainability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Cohen et al. [16] suggest that in order to explore ways to bring climate change (CC) and sustainable development (SD) research together, it is necessary to develop more heuristic tools that can involve resource users and other stakeholders. In this respect, this paper focuses on methodological development in research to study climate change impacts and regional sustainable development (RSD). It starts with an introduction of an integrated land assessment framework (ILAF) which is part of the integrated phase of the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS) in Canada. The paper then provides some articulation on how the integrated approach was applied in the Mackenzie Basin to show implications of climate change for RSD.
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  • 7
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: participatory integrated assessment ; climate change ; low energy society
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments.
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  • 8
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: CLEAR ; natural climate variability ; climate change ; atmosphere ; ocean
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Long-term variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic thermohaline ocean circulation (THC) are both shaping the European climate on time scales of decades and longer. Possible linear and non-linear changes in the characteristics of these natural climate modes due to global warming are an important source of uncertainty in long-term regional projections of future climate changes.
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  • 9
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 307-320 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: climate change ; ecological impact assessment ; alpine and subalpine belts ; plant distribution ; statistical modeling ; local scale ; GIS ; GLM ; Swiss Alps
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The potential ecological impact of ongoing climate change has been much discussed. High mountain ecosystems were identified early on as potentially very sensitive areas. Scenarios of upward species movement and vegetation shift are commonly discussed in the literature. Mountains being characteristically conic in shape, impact scenarios usually assume that a smaller surface area will be available as species move up. However, as the frequency distribution of additional physiographic factors (e.g., slope angle) changes with increasing elevation (e.g., with few gentle slopes available at higher elevation), species migrating upslope may encounter increasingly unsuitable conditions. As a result, many species could suffer severe reduction of their habitat surface, which could in turn affect patterns of biodiversity. In this paper, results from static plant distribution modeling are used to derive climate change impact scenarios in a high mountain environment. Models are adjusted with presence/absence of species. Environmental predictors used are: annual mean air temperature, slope, indices of topographic position, geology, rock cover, modeled permafrost and several indices of solar radiation and snow cover duration. Potential Habitat Distribution maps were drawn for 62 higher plant species, from which three separate climate change impact scenarios were derived. These scenarios show a great range of response, depending on the species and the degree of warming. Alpine species would be at greatest risk of local extinction, whereas species with a large elevation range would run the lowest risk. Limitations of the models and scenarios are further discussed.
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  • 10
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: Three-dimensional model ; anthropogenic emissions ; BVOC ; photochemistry ; ozone
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This study concentrated on the effects of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds (BVOC) emissions on ozone (O3) in an area of the Eastern Spain on June 12, 1997, a day characterised by sea breeze. Simulation of meteorology was performed with the three-dimensional model ADREA-I. Comparisons of the model results with observations have revealed overall a good agreement in temperature and wind velocity. Two runs were performed with UAM-IV for the photochemical calculations. The first simulated the effects of the anthropogenic emissions only (run A) and the second the combined effects of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions, (run B). Comparisons of the model O3 concentrations with measurements showed a general agreement with the experimental data. Discrepancies between the calculated results and the observations during the early morning hours could be attributed to inaccuracies in nitrogen oxides (NOx) from the anthropogenic emissions inventory. Comparisons between runs A and B yielded differences up to 30% in the morning, over inland areas. It was deduced that the inclusion of BVOC in total emissions could result in an increase or decrease of tropospheric O3, depending on the available amounts of anthropogenic emissions.
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  • 11
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 65 (2000), S. 129-137 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: ozone ; passive sampler ; air pollutant ; atmosphere
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A new all season passive sampling system for monitoring O3 in the atmosphere has been developed in the laboratory and validated in the field. The unique features for this system include a newly designed passive sampler and a rain shelter, which allow the passive sampler to be installed in the field facing downwards. An equation associated with meteorological parameters is used to calculate the passive sampling rates. This system has been extensively tested in the lab (temperature from –18 to 20°C, relative humidity from 13 to 81%, and wind speed from 0.5 to 150 cm/s) and validated in the field in climates of all seasons. The accuracy of the ozone concentrations in the atmosphere obtained with the use of the new passive sampling system was higher than 85% compared to those obtained with continuous ozone analyzers. The new ozone passive sampling system can be used to measure ambient O3 concentrations ranging from 3 ppb to 1000 ppb based on one-day exposure and 0.1 ppb to 140 ppb for a monthly exposure period. It is also reasonable to conclude that the new passive sampling system can be used for eight-hour exposure study because of the low field blanks and high sampling rates.
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  • 12
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: cluster analysis ; eastern deciduous forest ; geographic information system ; global change ; Monte Carlo simulation ; nitrogen deposition ; ozone ; scaling up ; site index ; southern pine forest
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Stochastic transfer of information in a hierarchy of simulators is offered as a conceptual approach for assessing forest responses to changing climate and air quality across 13 southeastern states of the USA. This assessment approach combines geographic information system and Monte Carlo capabilities with several scales of computer modeling for southern pine species and eastern deciduous forests. Outputs, such as forest production, evapotranspiration and carbon pools, may be compared statistically for alternative equilibrium or transient scenarios providing a statistical basis for decision making in regional assessments.
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  • 13
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    Natural resources research 9 (2000), S. 53-64 
    ISSN: 1573-8981
    Keywords: Geophysical data integration ; geostatistics ; mineral exploration ; interpolation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Geophysical data are used routinely in mineral exploration to delineate the geology of an area.Because geophysical attributes are sparsely sampled, interpolation methods are used to gridthe individual sets of data. Whereas traditional techniques interpolate constituent attributes ofinterest independently, frequently resulting in simplistic geological models, alternativetechniques interpolate by integrating secondary data sets collected in the explored area. Traditionaltechniques include minimum curvature and ordinary kriging. Alternative integrated interpolationtechniques include standardized ordinary cokriging, collocated cokriging, and kriging withexternal drift. Application of these techniques to a specific exploration area in interpolatinggravity measurements (primary data) using weakly correlated aeromagnetics (secondary data)suggests that when gravity is well sampled, all techniques generate similar results. However,when gravity is undersampled, the secondary data can contribute substantially to identifyinggeophysical anomalies. Considering the high cost of geophysical data collection, this observationcan make geophysical data collection more efficient and cost effective. The case studyshows how, in the absence of a strong correlation, cokriging varieties tend to produce mapssimilar to those generated by traditional techniques. Kriging with external drift is shown togenerate a gravity map reproducing all gravity anomalies. The technique produces excellentresults when features identified in the secondary data need to be reflected in the map of theprimary data.
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  • 14
    ISSN: 1573-1642
    Keywords: nitrogen ; phosphorus ; macroalgae ; estuary ; anthropogenic
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Our objective was to begin to investigate sources, sinks, and flux rates of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in Famosa Slough, a small (12 ha) highly modified urban estuary in San Diego, California, U.S.A. The hydrology of Famosa Slough has been modified by culverts that dampen tidal influence and seasonal runoff from two urban watersheds, each of which has been implicated as a nutrient source that generates nuisance algal blooms. In 1995 and 1996, the ranges of nutrients measured in the water column were extremely wide; upper values exceeded those in other estuaries identified as eutrophic. Average dissolved inorganic nitrogen ranged from 2 to 250 μM, while dissolved inorganic phosphorus ranged from 〈1 to 15 μM. Nutrient content of the water changed rapidly both spatially and temporally depending on the tides and rainfall. While tidal water dominated this system, especially in the dry season, our results indicate that Famosa Slough's small watershed, not the larger watershed of the San Diego River, was the major source of nutrients during rainfall. Sediment nutrients were also high (∼3 mg N g dry wt−1 and 0.600 mg P g dry wt−1). Short-term flux studies suggest that the large accumulations of opportunistic green macroalgae commonly found in this estuary, and possibly the sediments, may act as a large and rapid sink for nutrients during times of high nutrient supply. We suggest that small, shallow estuaries in urban settings may have more complex and rapid nutrient dynamics than those found in larger systems.
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  • 15
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    Urban ecosystems 4 (2000), S. 193-229 
    ISSN: 1573-1642
    Keywords: ozone ; radiation measurements ; skin cancer ; urban environments ; urban trees
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Excess exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UV) from the sun, particularly the ultraviolet B (UVB), is cited as a cause or contributing factor for deleterious effects on human health, including skin cancers and cataracts. Rates of skin cancer have increased greatly in recent years, and increased UVB caused by reductions in stratospheric ozone may be responsible for some of the increase in rates, though quantified estimates of the effect of the UVB changes on health have low certainty. UVB exposure also affects the function of the immune system, and the potential resulting effects on infectious diseases and immunizations are a concern. Epidemiological considerations suggest that peoples' routine exposure to UV in urban areas can be significant in adverse health effects, particularly for young children. Projected trends of ozone indicate that agreements to limit ozone-depleting substances are slowing the UVB increase, but high levels will continue and apparently impact health to the middle of the current century. Urban trees greatly reduce ultraviolet irradiance in their shade when they obscure both the sun and sky. Where trees or other structures obscure only the sun, leaving much of the sky in view, UVB irradiance will be greater than suggested by the visible shade. Since air pollutants influence the UVB above the canopy, and the overlying atmosphere is usually more polluted in urban than rural areas, additional above-canopy monitoring of UV in urban areas is needed for comparison to existing rural monitoring sites. Such monitoring would facilitate the development of computer models of urban effects on UV, which are needed for epidemiological investigations, public education, and urban planning.
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  • 16
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    Mathematical geology 32 (2000), S. 87-108 
    ISSN: 1573-8868
    Keywords: heterogeneity ; geostatistics ; optimization ; inversion ; nonlinearity
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Mathematics
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes a new method for gradually deforming realizations of Gaussian-related stochastic models while preserving their spatial variability. This method consists in building a stochastic process whose state space is the ensemble of the realizations of a spatial stochastic model. In particular, a stochastic process, built by combining independent Gaussian random functions, is proposed to perform the gradual deformation of realizations. Then, the gradual deformation algorithm is coupled with an optimization algorithm to calibrate realizations of stochastic models to nonlinear data. The method is applied to calibrate a continuous and a discrete synthetic permeability fields to well-test pressure data. The examples illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method. Furthermore, we present some extensions of this method (multidimensional gradual deformation, gradual deformation with respect to structural parameters, and local gradual deformation) that are useful in practice. Although the method described in this paper is operational only in the Gaussian framework (e.g., lognormal model, truncated Gaussian model, etc.), the idea of gradually deforming realizations through a stochastic process remains general and therefore promising even for calibrating non-Gaussian models.
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  • 17
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    Mathematical geology 32 (2000), S. 367-379 
    ISSN: 1573-8868
    Keywords: random functions ; simulation ; geostatistics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Mathematics
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents a new method of constructing random functions whose realizations can be evaluated efficiently. The basic idea is to “blend,” both stochastically and linearly, a limited set of independent initial realizations previously generated by any chosen simulation method. The blending stochastic coefficients are determined in such a way that the new random function so generated has the same mean and covariance functions as the random function used for generating the initial realizations.
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  • 18
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    Mathematical geology 32 (2000), S. 389-419 
    ISSN: 1573-8868
    Keywords: shale ; geostatistics ; Bayes' theorem ; Frontier Formation ; Erlangian ; tide-influenced delta
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Mathematics
    Notes: Abstract Dimensions of shales and other geologic bodies that affect fluid flow through reservoirs and aquifers are often estimated from analogous deposits exposed in outcrops. Shale lengths observed in outcrops are biased because the finite length of outcrops truncates longer shales and long shales tend to be overrepresented in the sample. Shale length distributions can be modeled using an Erlangian probability density function based on termination frequency. Termination frequency can be calculated from outcrop observations even if the shales are incompletely exposed. Termination frequency is unbiased regardless of underlying shale length distribution and outcrop size and shape. Complex length distributions can be represented by a weighted sum of Erlangian models, each with a distinct termination frequency. The proportions and termination frequencies of the component models can be estimated using Bayes' theorem. Subsamples of the outcrop area can be analyzed to quantify spatial trends in termination frequency and thus shale length. These methods can be applied to estimate length distributions of any geologic object exposed in outcrops or other spatially limited samples. In many cases estimated termination frequency is normally distributed, and its variance can be estimated using closed-form expressions. Shale length distributions for the Frewens Sandstone were modeled using one- and two-component Erlangian probability density functions. The Frewens Sandstone is a tide-influenced deltaic sandstone body within the Cretaceous-age Frontier Formation, exposed in central Wyoming, USA. Length observations and Erlangian models agree reasonably well. Because the models correct for the effects of shale truncation in limited outcrop exposures, predicted means and proportions of long shales are substantially greater than observed values. There is a vertical trend and pronounced vertical cyclicity in termination frequency, indicating that shales become shorter upward and intervals of longer and shorter shales alternate. Along strike, termination frequency decreases away from the sandstone-body axis, reflecting greater preserved shale lengths toward sandstone-body margins. No correlation was observed between distance along dip and termination frequency. Termination frequencies and histograms of shale length for adjacent, perpendicular walls are similar, indicating that there is no anisotropy in shale length.
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  • 19
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Keywords: Bouteloua eriopoda ; Chihuahuan Desert ; desertification ; hydrology ; Larrea tridentata ; nitrogen ; nutrient budgets ; phosphorus ; runoff
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Losses of dissolved nutrients (N, P, K, Ca, Mg, Na,Cl, and SO4) in runoff were measured on grasslandand shrubland plots in the Chihuahuan desert ofsouthern New Mexico. Runoff began at a lowerthreshold of rainfall in shrublands than ingrasslands, and the runoff coefficient averaged 18.6%in shrubland plots over a 7-year period. In contrast,grassland plots lost 5.0 to 6.3% of incidentprecipitation in runoff during a 5.5-year period. Nutrient losses from shrubland plots were greater thanfrom grassland plots, with nitrogen losses averaging0.33 kg ha−1 yr−1 vs0.15 kg ha−1 yr−1, respectively, during a 3-year period. Thegreater nutrient losses in shrublands were due tohigher runoff, rather than higher nutrientconcentrations in runoff. In spite of these nutrientlosses in runoff, all plots showed net accumulationsof most elements due to inputs from atmosphericdeposition. Therefore, loss of soil nutrients byhillslope runoff cannot, by itself, account for thedepletion of soil fertility associated withdesertification in the Chihuahuan desert.
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  • 20
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Keywords: gaseous ; kinetics ; mercury ; methods ; speciation ; waters
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Mercury evasion from water is commonly modeled using measurements of dissolved gaseous mercury (DGM). We developed a method using a recently available automated field-ready mercury vapor analyzer to rapidly measure the concentrations of DGM in surface waters. We summarize here results of laboratory tests of the method, field intercomparisons with a manual method, and selected data from recent sampling campaigns in Florida and Michigan. The method uses the 1.5 lpm flow of a Tekran® Model 2537A mercury analyzer to purge and analyze discrete water samples, generating near real time (5-min) data on DGM in samples and blanks. Application of the Tekran allowed for detailed analysis of DGM removal kinetics and short-term diel studies characterizing the influence of sunlight and precipitation on DGM production in surface waters. Gas removal kinetics for dozens of samples indicates a first-order rate constant, and supports a 20-min. purge time for surface water samples from Florida (40-min for Michigan samples). Blanks are measured during a second such purge. Our results indicate that DGMs determined by both automated and manual methods are generally comparable, and that DGM in Florida samples is unstable during storage (loss rate constant ∼0.1--0.2 h-1), probably due to oxidation. This suggests that rapid in-field analysis is preferred to storage with delayed analysis. Our data indicate that DGM at the Florida site is influenced by inputs of reactive Hg in rainwater, and by production of surface DGM during photoreduction of oxidized Hg in the water column.
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  • 21
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    Environmental and resource economics 15 (2000), S. 135-148 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: climate change ; overlapping generations models
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The artifice of an infinitely-lived representative agent iscommonly invoked to balance the present costs and future benefitsof climate stabilization policies. Since actual economies arepopulated by overlapping generations of finite-lived persons,this approach begs important questions of welfare aggregation.This paper compares the results of representative agent andoverlapping generations models that are numerically calibratedbased on standard assumptions regarding climate--economyinteractions. Under two social choice rules -- Pareto efficiencyand classical utilitarianism -- the models generate closelysimilar simulation results. In the absence of policies toredistribute income between present and future generations,efficient rates of carbon dioxide emissions abatement rise from15 to 20% between the years 2000 and 2105. Under classicalutilitarianism, in contrast, optimal control rates rise from 48 to 79% this same period.
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  • 22
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: climate change ; mountain agriculture ; tourism ; participatory integrated assessment ; focus groups
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Winter tourism and mountain agriculture are the most important economic sectors in a major part of the Swiss Alps. Both are highly sensitive to changing climatic conditions. In the framework of the CLEAR project, results from climate impact research in the field of tourism and agricultural production were used to investigate the perception of climatic change by stakeholders and to assess possible adaptations. We used a participatory integrated assessment (PIA) to involve the knowledge, values and experiences of the various social actors in tourism and agriculture (e.g., skiers, tourism managers, farmers) in the research process. Whereas climate change may have various severe direct impacts on the tourism industry, depending on the region, agricultural production may generally benefit from changed climatic conditions. But because of the dependence of farmers on “off-farm” income, the loss due to declining winter tourism in specific areas may cause more important indirect effects. However, the two sectors may adapt actively by choosing from a variety of strategies, and the loss of income from the tourism industry may support the re-evaluation of the various functions agriculture plays in mountain regions, beyond the production of food. The study demonstrates the suitability of the PIA approach to elucidate the interactions between different stakeholders and their perception of the climate change phenomena. A similar participatory approach could be a useful tool to transfer research results and expert knowledge to the political process addressing adaptations to climate change.
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  • 23
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    Environmental and resource economics 17 (2000), S. 163-181 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: carbon emissions inequality ; climate change ; global warming
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper analyzes future carbon emissions inequality using a group decomposition of the Gini index. Business-as-usual projections to the year 2100 for 135 countries show inequality in per capita emissions declines slowly. Next, the impact on emissions levels and inequality of the Kyoto Protocol and other abatement proposals for Annex II countries in 2010 are measured, with a focus on the gap-narrowing and reranking effects. Substantial reranking of per capita emissions between Annex II and non-Annex II countries will not occur unless the former reduce their emissions by at least 50% (versus 1990 levels) and the latter continue growing unabated.
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  • 24
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    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 127-136 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: integrated assessments ; climate change ; discounting ; equity ; climate policy
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A standard framework is presented as an underlying model for the discounting debate. Views and proposals for the techniques and rates of discounting are assessed. Alternative modeling frameworks for studying intergenerational equity issues are evaluated with the result that the basic insights they provide do not differ very much. Results from model experiments involving different discount rate proposals show that fudging the discount rate does not lead to efficient climate policy. Three major clusters of opinions are identified regarding the applicability of cost-benefit analysis to the climate change problem and the appropriate discount rate to use. It is concluded that under some very special circumstances the cost-benefit rule should be abandoned and cost-effective strategies implying standard discount rates should be sought to reach clearly defined and justified environmental targets.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 5 (2000), S. 361-377 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: carbon budget ; climate change ; desertification ; international environmental institutions ; land degradation ; research convergence ; science policy
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Poor knowledge of links between desertification and globalclimate change is limiting funding from the Global Environment Facility foranti-desertification projects and realization of synergies between theConvention to Combat Desertification (CCD) and the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (FCCC). Greater convergence betweenresearch in the two fields could overcome these limitations, improve ourknowledge of desertification, and benefit four areas of global climate changestudies: mitigation assessment; accounting for land cover change in thecarbon budget; land surface-atmosphere interactions; and climate changeimpact forecasting. Convergence would be assisted if desertification weretreated more as a special case in dry areas of the global process of landdegradation, and stimulated by: (a) closer cooperation between the FCCCand CCD; (b) better informal networking between desertification and globalclimate change scientists, e.g. within the framework of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Both strategies wouldbe facilitated if the FCCC and CCD requested the IPCC to provide ascientific framework for realizing the synergies between them.
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  • 26
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 5 (2000), S. 379-406 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Keywords: climate change ; Ethiopia ; historical analogy ; migration ; vulnerability
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Climate change has been presented as a likely trigger formigration of people, especially in dryland areas of less developed countries.The underlying research questions focus on the strength of adaptationcapacity of subsistence farmers in Northern Ethiopia, and evaluate historicalexperiences gained from drought-induced migration. Through a survey of104 peasants who had to migrant due to persistent drought, vulnerabilityto climate change has shown to be a complex issue, including themultiplicity of factors comprising a household environment. Still, to bevulnerable does not make someone a potential climate migrant, as peoplein marginal regions have developed a great variety of adaptationmechanisms, which strengthen their ability to cope with both, slow climaticchanges and extreme climatic events.
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  • 27
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    Transport in porous media 41 (2000), S. 173-195 
    ISSN: 1573-1634
    Keywords: carbonate reservoir characterization ; geostatistics ; fractals ; artificial neural networks
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Technology
    Notes: Abstract In this study, a carbonate oil reservoir located in the southeast part of Turkey was characterized by the use of kriging and the fractal geometry. The three-dimensional porosity and permeability distributions were generated by both aforementioned methods by using the wireline porosity logs and core plug permeability measurements taken from six wells of the field. Since classical regression (lognormal or polynomial) and geostatistical techniques (cross variograms) fail to estimate permeability from wireline log-porosity data, the use of artificial neural networks (ANNs) is proposed in this study to generate permeability data at uncored intervals of porosity logs. For both of the methods, kriging and fractal techniques, the validation of the estimated/simulated data with known wellbore data resulted with acceptable agreements, especially for porosity. Also the comparison of both methods at unsampled locations show better agreements for porosity than permeability.
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  • 28
    ISSN: 1435-0157
    Keywords: Key words hydraulic properties ; heterogeneity ; geophysical methods ; geostatistics ; Italy
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences
    Description / Table of Contents: Résumé Dans le cadre de plusieurs études réalisées pour caractériser l'aquifère sur le site expérimental près de Montalto Uffugo (Italie), ce travail analyse la distribution spatiale de la conductivité hydraulique de formations non consolidées présentes dans cette région. La technique géostatistique du krigeage a été appliquée, avec une dérive externe, aux données de résistivitéélectrique et de conductivité hydraulique. La fiabilité de la méthode d'estimation a été testée en établissant un modèle, basé sur la méthode des cellules, qui simule l'écoulement souterrain, à partir des valeurs estimées de la conductivité hydraulique. Les résultats obtenus indiquent que cette méthode d'estimation présente un degré de fiabilité acceptable.
    Abstract: Resumen Dentro del marco de los estudios destinados a la caracterización del acuífero del campo experimental de aguas subterráneas cercano a Montalto Uffugo (Italia), el presente trabajo estima la distribución espacial de la conductividad hidráulica de los depósitos no consolidados subyacentes. El estudio se ha llevado a cabo mediante la técnica geoestadística del krigeado con deriva externa de los datos de resistividad eléctrica y de conductividad hidráulica. Se ha verificado la fiabilidad de la estimación mediante un modelo de simulación del flujo de aguas subterráneas, basado en el método de las celdas, que utiliza los valores estimados de la conductividad hidráulica. Los resultados obtenidos indican que el método de estimación empleado posee un grado de fiabilidad aceptable.
    Notes: Abstract  In the framework of various studies to characterize the aquifer at the groundwater experimental field near Montalto Uffugo, Italy, the present work estimates the spatial distribution of hydraulic conductivity of the unconsolidated deposits that underlie the area, by applying the geostatistical technique of kriging with external drift to electrical-resistivity and hydraulic-conductivity data. The reliability of the estimation method was tested by implementing a model, based on the method of cells, that simulates groundwater flow, with the estimated values of hydraulic conductivity. The results obtained indicate that the estimation method used has an acceptable degree of reliability.
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  • 29
    ISSN: 1573-0662
    Keywords: aerosols ; cloud formation ; microanalysis ; ship tracks ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The chemical composition of individual particles 〉0.2 μm sampled duringthe MAST-experiment wereanalysed by SEM-EDX, in combination with multivariatetechniques. The objective of this experiment was toidentify the mechanisms responsible for themodification of marine stratocumulus clouds byemissions from ships and in a wider sense to provideinformation on the global processes involved inatmospheric modification of cloud albedo. Aerosolswere examined under different MBL pollution levels(clean, intermediately polluted and moderatelypolluted) in five different reservoirs: backgroundbelow-cloud and above-cloud aerosol; background clouddroplet residual particles; below-cloud ship plumeaerosol and ship track cloud droplet residualparticles.In this study a relation was provided between theaerosol emitted from the ship's stack to an effect incloud. Additionally, a large fraction of the ambientaerosol was found to be composed of organic materialor other compounds, consisting of low Z-elements,associated with chlorine. Their number fraction waslargest in clean marine boundary layers, and decreasedwith increasing pollution levels. The fraction of`transformed sea salt' (Na, Cl, S), on the other hand,increased with the pollution level in the MBL. Only20% of the particles fell within the detectable rangeof the analysis.
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  • 30
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    Journal of atmospheric chemistry 35 (2000), S. 1-18 
    ISSN: 1573-0662
    Keywords: ozone ; nitrogen oxides ; VOC ; ozone formation ; air pollution ; urban emissions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The ozone forming potential of VOCs and NOx for plumes observed from several cities and a power plant in eastern Germany was investigated. A closed box model with a gas phase photochemical reaction mechanism was employed to simulate several scenarios based upon aircraft observations. In several of the scenarios, the initial concentrations of NOx, VOCs, and SO2, were reduced to study the factors limiting the O3 production. Ozone production was limited by the initial VOC concentrations for all of the simulated plumes. Higher O3 concentrations were produced with reduced initial NOx. In one sample with high SO2 mixing ratios (〉100 ppb), SO2 was also identified as a significant contributor to the production of O3.
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    Journal of atmospheric chemistry 35 (2000), S. 249-272 
    ISSN: 1573-0662
    Keywords: ozone ; tropical atmosphere ; boundary layer ozone ; biomass burning ; Venezuelan savannah
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract In recent field campaigns, boundary layer ozone concentrations were measuredat different sites in the Orinoco river basin (mainly savannahs) and nearbylocations (cloud forest and coastal sites), during dry and wet seasons. Theresults provide a comprehensive description of boundary layer ozone in atropical region north of the equator where scarce information is available.Ozone measurements were made using photometric ozone analyzers. In thesavannah region, ozone profiles (up to 1000 m) were also obtained usingelectrochemical concentration cell sondes, launched in a tethered balloon.The results, in comparison with other parts of the world, confirm the lowvalues for the concentration of ozone in the boundary layer of the studyregion. Throughout the entire region (marine, coastal, and continental areas),higher concentrations were produced during the dry season (20–30 ppbv)than during the wet season (13–17 ppbv), likely due to the photochemicalproduction of ozone from biomass burning emissions. This seasonal variationobserved in the boundary layer contrasts with satellite data, that show highertotal tropospheric ozone columns during the wet season in the 0–15°Nregion; this means that the ozone annual cycles in the boundary layer and freetroposphere are out of phase.At the most pristine continental sites in the southern part of Venezuela,quite a `peculiar' diurnal variation was observed, with maximum concentrationsin the morning and a steady decrease of ∼0.6 ppbv hr-1 duringthe hours of high solar irradiation. Although dynamic aspects cannot be ruledout, the daytime ozone decrease, which cannot be explained by thewell-established `classical' continental O3 sinks, suggests thatin this region part of the ozone consumption is caused byHO x cycles at low NO x levels. Futurestudies to elucidate the causes of the daytime ozone decrease at thesecontinental sites should be undertaken.
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  • 32
    ISSN: 1573-0662
    Keywords: active nitrogen ; ozone ; radicals ; snow chemistry ; Arctic ; surface layer
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Measurements of NOx (NO +NO2) and the sum of reactive nitrogenconstituents, NOy, were made near the surface atAlert (82.5°N), Canada during March and April1998. In early March when solar insolation was absentor very low, NOx mixing ratios were frequentlynear zero. After polar sunrise when the sun was abovethe horizon for much or all of the day a diurnalvariation in NOx and NOy was observed withamplitudes as large as 30–40 pptv. The source ofactive nitrogen is attributed to release from the snowsurface by a process that is apparently sensitized bysunlight. If the source from the snowpack is a largescale feature of the Arctic then the diurnal trendsalso require a competing process for removal to thesurface. From the diurnal change in the NO/NO2ratio, mid-April mixing ratios for the sum of peroxyand halogen oxide radicals of ≤10 pptv werederived for periods when ozone mixing ratios were inthe normal range of 30–50 ppbv. Mid-day ozoneproduction and loss rates with the active nitrogensource were estimated to be ∼1–2 ppbv/day and in nearbalance. NOy mixing ratios which averaged only295±66 pptv do not support a large accumulation inthe high Arctic surface layer in the winter and springof 1998. The small abundance of NOy relative tothe elevated mixing ratios of other long-livedanthropogenic constituents requires that reactivenitrogen be removed to the surface during transport toor during residence within the high Arctic.
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  • 33
    ISSN: 1573-0662
    Keywords: non-methane hydrocarbons ; ozone ; HO x ; CO ; NO x ; tropospheric chemistry ; global ; 3-d modeling ; upper troposphere
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The impact of natural and anthropogenicnon-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC) on troposphericchemistry is investigated with the global,three-dimensional chemistry-transport model MOGUNTIA.This meteorologically simplified model allows theinclusion of a rather detailed scheme to describeNMHC oxidation chemistry. Comparing model resultscalculated with and without NMHC oxidation chemistryindicates that NMHC oxidation adds 40–60% to surfacecarbon monoxide (CO) levels over the continents andslightly less over the oceans. Free tropospheric COlevels increase by 30–60%. The overall yield of COfrom the NMHC mixture considered is calculated to beabout 0.4 CO per C atom. Organic nitrate formationduring NMHC oxidation, and their transport anddecomposition affect the global distribution of NO x and thereby O3 production. The impact of theshort-lived NMHC extends over the entire tropospheredue to the formation of longer-lived intermediateslike CO, and various carbonyl and carboxyl compounds.NMHC oxidation almost doubles the net photochemicalproduction of O3 in the troposphere and leads to20–80% higher O3 concentration inNO x -rich boundarylayers, with highest increases over and downwind ofthe industrial and biomass burning regions. Anincrease by 20–30% is calculated for the remotemarine atmosphere. At higher altitudes, smaller, butstill significant increases, in O3 concentrationsbetween 10 and 60% are calculated, maximizing in thetropics. NO from lightning also enhances the netchemical production of O3 by about 30%, leading to asimilar increase in the global mean OH radicalconcentration. NMHC oxidation decreases the OH radicalconcentrations in the continental boundary layer withlarge NMHC emissions by up to 20–60%. In the marineboundary layer (MBL) OH levels can increase in someregions by 10–20% depending on season and NO x levels.However, in most of the MBL OH will decrease by10–20% due to the increase in CO levels by NMHCoxidation chemistry. The large decreases especiallyover the continents strongly reduce the markedcontrasts in OHconcentrations between land and oceanwhich are calculated when only the backgroundchemistry is considered. In the middle troposphere, OHconcentrations are reduced by about 15%, although dueto the growth in CO. The overall effect of thesechanges on the tropospheric lifetime of CH4 is a 15%increase from 6.5 to 7.4 years. Biogenic hydrocarbonsdominate the impact of NMHC on global troposphericchemistry. Convection of hydrocarbon oxidationproducts: hydrogen peroxides and carbonyl compounds,especially acetone, is the main source of HO x in theupper troposphere. Convective transport and additionof NO from lightning are important for the O3 budgetin the free troposphere.
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    Journal of atmospheric chemistry 37 (2000), S. 161-172 
    ISSN: 1573-0662
    Keywords: OH radicals ; ozone ; rate coefficients ; allyl acetate ; isopropenyl acetate
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Rate coefficients have been measured for the gas phasereactions of hydroxyl (OH) radicals and ozone with twounsaturated esters, allyl acetate(CH3C(O)OCH2CH=CH2) and isopropenylacetate (CH3C(O)OC(CH3)=CH2). The OHexperiments were carried out using the pulsed laserphotolysis – laser induced fluorescence technique overthe temperature range 243–372 K and the kinetic dataused to derive the following Arrhenius expressions (inunits of cm3 molecule-1 s-1): allylacetate, k 1 = (2.33 ± 0.27) ×10-12 exp[(732 ± 34)/T]; and isopropenyl acetate,k 2 = (4.52 ± 0.62) × 10-12exp[(809 ± 39)/T]. At 298 K, the rate coefficients obtained (inunits of 10-12 cm3 molecule-1 s-1)are: k 1 = (27.1 ± 3.0) and k 2= (69.6± 9.4). The relative rate technique has been usedto determine rate coefficients for the reaction ofozone with the acetates. Using methyl vinyl ketone asthe reference compound and a value of4.8 × 10-18 cm3 molecule-1s-1 asthe rate coefficient for its reaction with O3,the following rate coefficients were derived at 298 ± 4 K (in units of10-18 cm3molecule-1 s-1): allyl acetate, (2.4 ± 0.7) andisopropenyl acetate (0.7 ± 0.2). Theresults are discussed in terms of structure-activityrelationships and used to derive atmospheric lifetimesfor the acetates.
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  • 35
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Keywords: carbon sequestration ; geostatistics ; mountain forest soils ; national assessment ; soil organic carbon
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Soil organic carbon (SOC) has been identified as the main globalterrestrial carbon reservoir, but considerable uncertainty remains as toregional SOC variability and the distribution of C between vegetationand soil. We used gridded forest soil data (8–km × 8–km)representative of Swiss forests in terms of climate and forest typedistribution to analyse spatial patterns of mineral SOC stocks alonggradients in the European Alps for the year 1993. At stand level, meanSOC stocks of 98 t C ha−1 (N = 168,coefficient of variation: 70%) were obtained for the entiremineral soil profile, 76 t C ha−1 (N =137, CV: 50%) in 0–30 cm topsoil, and 62 t Cha−1 (N = 156, CV: 46%) in0–20 cm topsoil. Extrapolating to national scale, we calculatedcontemporary SOC stocks of 110 Tg C (entire mineral soil, standarderror: 6 Tg C), 87 Tg C (0–30 cm topsoil, standarderror: 3.5 Tg C) and 70 Tg C (0–20 cm topsoil, standarderror: 2.5 Tg C) for mineral soils of accessible Swiss forests(1.1399 Mha). According to our estimate, the 0–20 cm layers ofmineral forest soils in Switzerland store about half of the Csequestered by forest trees (136 Tg C) and more than five times morethan organic horizons (13.2 Tg C). At stand level, regression analyses on the entire data set yielded nostrong climatic or topographic signature for forest SOC stocks in top(0–20 cm) and entire mineral soils across the Alps, despite thewide range of values of site parameters. Similarly, geostatisticalanalyses revealed no clear spatial trends for SOC in Switzerland at thescale of sampling. Using subsets, biotic, abiotic controls andcategorial variables (forest type, region) explained nearly 60%of the SOC variability in topsoil mineral layers (0–20 cm) forbroadleaf stands (N = 56), but only little of thevariability in needleleaf stands (N = 91,R 2 = 0.23 for topsoil layers). Considerable uncertainties remain in assessments of SOC stocks, due tounquantified errors in soil density and rock fraction, lack of data onwithin-site SOC variability and missing or poorly quantifiedenvironmental control parameters. Considering further spatial SOCvariability, replicate pointwise soil sampling at 8–km × 8–kmresolution without organic horizons will thus hardly allow to detectchanges in SOC stocks in strongly heterogeneous mountain landscapes.
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  • 36
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Keywords: C:N ratio ; dissolved organic carbon ; dissolved organic nitrogen ; nitrogen ; stream chemistry ; watershed
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Relatively high deposition ofnitrogen (N) in the northeastern United States hascaused concern because sites could become N saturated.In the past, mass-balance studies have been used tomonitor the N status of sites and to investigate theimpact of increased N deposition. Typically, theseefforts have focused on dissolved inorganic forms ofN (DIN = NH4-N + NO3-N) and have largelyignored dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) due todifficulties in its analysis. Recent advances in themeasurement of total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) havefacilitated measurement of DON as the residual of TDN− DIN. We calculated DON and DIN budgets using data onprecipitation and streamwater chemistry collected from9 forested watersheds at 4 sites in New England. TDNin precipitation was composed primarily of DIN. Netretention of TDN ranged from 62 to 89% (4.7 to 10 kghaminus 1 yrminus 1) of annual inputs. DON made up themajority of TDN in stream exports, suggesting thatinclusion of DON is critical to assessing N dynamicseven in areas with large anthropogenic inputs of DIN.Despite the dominance of DON in streamwater,precipitation inputs of DON were approximately equalto outputs. DON concentrations in streamwater did notappear significantly influenced by seasonal biologicalcontrols, but did increase with discharge on somewatersheds. Streamwater NO3-N was the onlyfraction of N that exhibited a seasonal pattern, withconcentrations increasing during the winter months andpeaking during snowmelt runoff. Concentrations ofNO3-N varied considerably among watersheds andare related to DOC:DON ratios in streamwater. AnnualDIN exports were negatively correlated withstreamwater DOC:DON ratios, indicating that theseratios might be a useful index of N status of uplandforests.
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  • 37
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Keywords: acid deposition ; atmospheric deposition ; nitrate ; nitrification ; nitrogen ; soil carbon ; soil chemistry ; stream water acidification
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Cumulative effects of atmospheric N deposition mayincrease N export from watersheds and contribute tothe acidification of surface waters, but naturalfactors (such as forest productivity and soildrainage) that affect forest N cycling can alsocontrol watershed N export. To identify factors thatare related to stream-water export of N, elevationalgradients in atmospheric deposition and naturalprocesses were evaluated in a steep, first-orderwatershed in the Catskill Mountains of New York, from1991 to 1994. Atmospheric deposition of SO 4 2− , andprobably N, increased with increasing elevation withinthis watershed. Stream-water concentrations ofSO 4 2− increased with increasing elevationthroughout the year, whereas stream-waterconcentrations of NO 3 − decreased withincreasing elevation during the winter and springsnowmelt period, and showed no relation with elevationduring the growing season or the fall. Annual exportof N in stream water for the overall watershed equaled12% to 17% of the total atmospheric input on thebasis of two methods of estimation. This percentagedecreased with increasing elevation, from about 25%in the lowest subwatershed to 7% in the highestsubwatershed; a probable result of an upslope increasein the thickness of the surface organic horizon,attributable to an elevational gradient in temperaturethat slows decomposition rates at upper elevations. Balsam fir stands, more prevalent at upper elevationsthan lower elevations, may also affect the gradient ofsubwatershed N export by altering nitrification ratesin the soil. Variations in climate and vegetationmust be considered to determine how future trends inatmospheric deposition will effect watershed export ofnitrogen.
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  • 38
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Keywords: carbon ; landscape geochemical flows ; model ; nitrogen ; phosphorus ; wetland
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The importance of landscape geochemical flows wasinvestigated using a dynamic model simulating carbon,nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in riverine wetlands,which has been described in a previous paper. Thehydro-geomorphic unit (HGMU) concept was incorporatedin the model by defining a separate, completeunit-model for each unit (HGMU) within the wetland.These unit-models were connected by defining the flowsof nitrogen and phosphorus between them. These flows,also called landscape geochemical flows, usuallyconsist of flows of water containing N and P. The model was applied to a site at Kismeldon Meadows,in south-western England. This site consists of twounits, a slope and a floodplain, separated by a ditch,which catches most of the run off and shallowgroundwater flows from the slope. Only an estimated1% of the N and P that leaves the slope unit in thewater outflow reaches the floodplain unit; the rest iscaught in the system of ditches, which prevent thegeochemical flows taking their natural course. Toexamine the influence of this system of ditches, themodel was run for the same site, but without theditches. This is comparable to a situation of arestored site, where run off and shallow groundwaterflows containing nutrients, can freely get from theslope to the floodplain. The computer simulation experiment reconnecting theslope and floodplain showed that this (1) increasedthe nutrient input into the floodplain, causing ahigher biomass production, and (2) increased thewetness of the floodplain, causing slowerdecomposition, which together (3) led to a faster soilorganic matter accumulation in the floodplain.Nutrient inflows became relatively more importantcompared to atmospheric deposition, especially forphosphorus. By connecting the slope and the floodplainmore nitrogen and less phosphorus flowed into theriver.
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  • 39
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Keywords: chloride ; internal eutrophication ; nitrogen ; peat soil ; phosphorus ; phytometer ; sulphate
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Inputs of surface waters high in chloride and sulphateincreased the availability of nutrients in fenpeatlands. This `internal eutrophication' wasdemonstrated with test plants (`phytometers') andthrough water and soil analysis. Three experiments arepresented in which the level of chloride and/orsulphate was increased to 3 mmolc l−1. Inexperiment 1 chloride levels were increased from 0.5to 3 mmolc l−1 as CaCl2 or NaCl. Inexperiment 2 and 3 similar increased levels forchloride and sulphate (3 mmolc l−1; as NaCland Na2SO4) were used. The following resultswere found: (i) No differences in soil total-N and total-P werefound before and after the treatments in any of thethree experiments. (ii) Experiment 1 showed a significant increase inBio-Available P (BAP) in pots planted with Anthoxanthum odoratum as well as in bare pots for theNaCl and CaCl2 treatments. The plants in thesetreatments had taken up much more P. (iii) Experiment 2 showed an increase in soil BAPafter treatment with chloride and sulphate in potsplanted with Anthoxanthum odoratum. The chloridetreatment had no effect on plant biomass, whereas thesulphate treatment resulted in a reduction in rootbiomass and root N and P content. The shoots showedan increase in P content in the sulphate and chloridetreatments, while N content remained the same. (iv) In experiment 3, treatments with chloride andsulphate led to significantly increased biomass and Puptake of Anthoxanthum odoratum. Again, noeffects on N uptake were found. These experiments provide evidence for distinctlyincreased availability of phosphate in peat soils whenthese come into contact with water with evenmoderately increased sulphate or chloride levels.Surface water originating from the Rhine river, whichis enriched in chloride and sulphate, is oftensupplied to fen reserves in The Netherlands, tocompensate for water losses due to agriculturaldrainage in the region. The results of this study showthat phosphate availability to the vegetation may risedrastically, with detrimental effects on the speciesdensity and the occurrence of rare species in thevegetation. Hence, supply of this water should beavoided.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 62 (2000), S. 91-111 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: forecasting ; non-attainment ares ; ozone ; time series model
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Ground level ozone is responsible for the formation ofsmog, and for a variety of adverse effects on bothhuman and plant life. High concentrations of groundlevel ozone occur during the summer months. This paperdescribes the development of a model to forecast themaximum daily concentration of ozone as a function ofthe maximum surface temperature, for ozonenon-attainment regions in Ohio. The model wasdeveloped by statistical analysis of existing data.Site-specific models were developed initially. Theverification and evaluation of the performancecriteria of the model at each site were explored bycomparing the model with an independent datasetcollected from that site. A generalized statewidemodel was developed from the site-specific models. Theperformance criteria of this model were verified andevaluated by employing the same independent datasetsemployed for the site-specific models. An exceedencemodel to predict the occurrence of ozone exceedencesover 100 ppb has also been presented.
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    Environmental modeling and assessment 5 (2000), S. 157-168 
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: climate change ; crops ; carbon dioxide ; economic welfare
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide CO2 have a beneficial effect on crop production that would tend to offset some of the economic losses that might be generated in some areas by the climatic effects of atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Previous estimates of the economic benefits of CO2 fertilization on world crop production, however, were based on the assumption that percent changes in supply are equal to percent changes in yield. This assumption is not valid, however, because it confounds changes in supply with changes in quantity supplied. This error leads to an overestimation of the real economic benefits of CO2 fertilization by 61–166%. The effects of CO2 fertilization on crop production, therefore, will reduce some of the potential damages caused by the climatic impacts of greenhouse gases, but by significantly less than that indicated in earlier research.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 133-144 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: adaptation scenarios ; climate change ; agriculture ; Poland
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper demonstrates the ability of Polish agriculture to adapt to predicted climate change according to GISS and GFDL scenarios. Both climate-change scenarios will significantly affect farming conditions in Poland through water deficit, shifts in planting and harvesting seasons, changes in crop yields and crop structure. Neither scenario seems to endanger the self-sufficiency of Poland as long as preventative measures are taken. Moreover, the realization of GISS creates the possibility of a surplus in production. It must be emphasized that regardless of the scenario, the adaptation of agriculture to an expected climate change cannot be handled by the farming community itself.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 161-166 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: adaptation measures ; water resources ; climate change ; Central Asia
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A large part of the Central Asian region is located within the inner flow of the Aral Sea basin. The water resources are formed from renewed superficial and underground waters of natural origin, and also with returnable waters. The intensive increase of water intake, that took place in the second half of the twentieth century caused practically complete assimilation of the river inflow. That was the main reason for the Aral Sea crisis. On the basis of the analysis of long periodical rows of observation by meterological and hydrological stations, the estimation of regional water resources and calculations of changes of some components of the hydrological cycle due to the expected climate changes are presented. Measures for adaptation in the southern part of the Aral Sea region are considered.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 187-191 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: climate change ; adaptation ; water resources ; China
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract It is indicated that up to the year 2030, the annual average temperatures in China will increase by 0.88 to 1.2°C, with increments in the south less than in the north. Annual average precipitation would raise slightly, but the increment could be 4% in northeastern China. The increment of annual mean runoff could rise over 6% in the northeastern area, and decrease in the other regions 1.4 to 10.5%. The increased water shortage due to climate change could achieve 160 to 5090 million m3 in some areas of China. Financial loss due to the lack of water could reach 1300 million yuan, and up to 4400 million yuan in serious drought years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 62 (2000), S. 261-272 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: boreal forests ; climate change ; ecosystem theory ; nonlinear thermodynamics ; resource management
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Over the past two centuries progressive anthropogenicperturbations to natural, boreal forest-climateinteractions have contributed increasingly to awidespread transition from coniferous to deciduouslandscapes. This transition is associated withchanges, at boreal latitudes, in temperature,photosynthetic activity, atmospheric CO2 andspring snow cover. These signals convey thediminished capacity of boreal landscapes to store andcycle materials and energy.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 63 (2000), S. 431-446 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: aquatic bacteria ; benthic macroinvertebrates ; bioindicator ; eutrophication ; nitrogen ; phosphorus ; stream pollution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A combination field and laboratorystudy was conducted to evaluate the ability of arecently developed bioindicator to detect detrimentalnutrient conditions in streams. The method utilizesbacterial growth on aquatic insects to determinenutrient impacts. Field investigations indicated thatelevated concentrations of nitrate and phosphate wereassociated with growth of filamentous bacteria oninsect body surfaces, and that there was a significantreduction in the density of major insect taxa in thenutrient-enriched stream reaches. Laboratoryinvestigations confirmed a strong linkage betweenbacterial growth and reduced survival of insects. Survival was examined for insects with bacterialinfestation ranging from 0% to greater than 50%coverage of the body surface. A threshold forcatastrophic mortality occurred at about 25% bodycoverage; there were few survivors above that amount. Based on these findings, the diagnostic endpoint forthe bioindicator is 25% body coverage by bacterialgrowth, a level that signifies major impacts and isalso easy to detect visually. This study providesadditional evidence that the insect-bacteriabioindicator is a reliable tool for assessing nutrientimpacts on stream macroinvertebrate communities. Thebioindicator should prove useful for identifyingnutrient-impacted sites as well as monitoring thesuccess of management actions to improve water quality.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 65 (2000), S. 119-127 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: DOAS ; Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy ; urban air quality ; monitoring ; vertical distribution ; ozone
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The concentrations of ozone, NO2 and SO2, measured with a DOAS system 70 m above ground level in the city of Graz were compared with data from conventional ground stations. The dependence of vertical trace-gas distributions on stability categories and time of the day or year was investigated. Concerning the maximum ozone concentrations in summer, the DOAS data are representative for the ground-level situation. In average, the concentrations 70 m above ground are more than twice the ground-level concentrations. It has been shown that beside the reaction with NO, dry deposition is an important sink for ozone near the surface. The DOAS NO2-concentrations are representative for ground-level conditions in summer, except for the morning maximum of NO2. In winter the DOAS NO2-concentrations amount for 73% of the ground level values in average. Concerning the slow reacting trace gas SO2, the DOAS data are always representative for the ground-level conditions.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 65 (2000), S. 313-321 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: ozone ; air pollution management ; time-series model ; cyclostationarity ; Kalman filter ; short-term forecasting
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract For the purpose of short-term forecasting of high ozone concentration episodes stochastic models have been suggested and developed in the literature. The present paper compares the quality of forecasts produced by a grey box and a component time-series model. The summer ozone patterns for three European urban areas (two continental and one mediterranean) are processed. By means of forecast performance indices according to EC and WHO guidelines, the following features of the models could be found: The grey box model is highly adaptive and produces forecasts with low error variance that increases with the time horizon of forecast. The component model is more 'stiff' that results in a higher forecast-error variance and poorer adaption in detail. The forecast horizon, however, could be enlarged with this model. The accuracy of predicting threshold exceedance is similar for both models. This can be understood from the assumption of a cyclical time development of ozone that was made for both models.
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    Water, air & soil pollution 119 (2000), S. 121-137 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: nitrogen ; wet deposition
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract We measured concentrations and fluxesof major ions in wet deposition, throughfall andstream water in a forested watershed on the AlleghenyPlateau of western Maryland to investigatecanopy-atmosphere interactions and to calculate input–output budgets. Wet deposition was dominated byH+, SO 4 2− , NO 3 − andNH 4 + ions. Hydrogen and SO 4 2− accounted for 70 and 58% of the total cation andanion equivalents, respectively. Annual wet depositionrates of SO 4 2− (0.56 keq ha−1 yr−1), NO 3 − (0.31 keq ha−1 yr −1)and NH 4 + (0.17 keq ha−1 yr −1)were at the high end of the range in wet depositionrates reported for other sites in the eastern UnitedStates. On an annual basis, the forest canopy consumed20% of the free acidity in incident precipitation,had no net effect on Na+ and NH 4 + deposition, and was a net source of K+,Ca2+, Mg2+, SO 4 2− andNO 3 − ; 1.5 to 22 times greater than the wetdeposition rates. On an annual basis, the watershed ofthe unnamed tributary to Herrington Creek (HCWS)retained essentially all of the throughfall H+ andNH 4 + inputs, 35% of the throughfall K+input and 62% of the throughfall NO 3 − input. In contrast, HCWS was a net source ofSO 4 2− , Cl−, Ca2+, Mg2+ andNa+; export rates were 2 to 5 times greater thanthroughfall inputs. Sulfate was the dominant anionassociated with cation leaching, accounting for 78%of the total anion export of 1.8 keq ha−1 yr −1 in 1996–1997.
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    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acid deposition ; acidification ; air pollution ; critical load ; defoliation ; drought ; meteorological stress ; N deposition ; nitrogen oxides ; ozone ; sulphur
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper is the first in a series of four,describing the hypothesis and approach of acorrelative study between observed data on crowncondition in Europe, monitored since 1986 at asystematic 16 × 16 km grid, and site-specificestimations of various natural and anthropogenicstress factors. The study was based on the hypothesisthat forests respond to various natural andanthropogenic stress factors, whose contributiondepend on the geographic region considered. In view ofthis hypothesis, major stand and site characteristics,chemical soil composition, meteorological stressfactors (temperature and drought stress indices) andair pollution stress (concentrations and/ordepositions of SOx, NOy, NHx andO3) were included as predictor variables. Theresponse variables considered were actual defoliationand changes/trends in defoliation for five major treespecies. The spatial distribution of the averagedefoliation during the period 1986–1995 shows highdefoliation in Central Europe and in parts ofScandinavia and of Southern Europe. There are,however, sharp changes at country borders, which aredue to methodological differences between countries.The spatial distribution of the calculated trends showa distinct cluster of large deterioration in parts ofCentral and Eastern Europe and in Spain and a ratherscattered pattern of positive and negative trends for most of Europe, indicating that other factors than airpollution only have a strong impact on defoliation.The limitations of the study are discussed in view ofthe quality of the considered response and predictor variables.
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    Water, air & soil pollution 120 (2000), S. 29-45 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: geostatistics ; heavy metals ; samplingdesign ; soil contamination ; spatial variability
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The choice of a sampling design forassessing soil contamination is a key issue. The leveland spatial pattern of contaminants needs to be takeninto account by those buying, selling or developingsuch land. This paper evaluates sampling design andsize in order to provide satisfactory and efficientestimates of contamination levels. Geostatisticalmethods are used to quantify the spatial dependence ofheavy metals. Semivariance is calculated forlog-transformed data to minimise the effects ofextreme outliers. Several models at different samplingstages are presented for characterising spatialpattern of heavy metals at the investigated site.Variogram models are calculated for a range of samplesizes. The results are assessed by a jack-knifingtechnique and then used for block kriging. The overallconclusion is that a sample size of 50 to 60 isoptimal for characterising variability incontamination levels at an old industrial site of 6.25 ha.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 60 (2000), S. 1-14 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: air pollution modelling ; forecast ; model evaluation ; ozone
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Forecasts of air quality provide information to the general public during periods with high levels of air pollution. Criteria for testing the validity and reliability of forecast systems are discussed. As the objectives of a forecast may widely differ (providing information to the public or triggering short-term emission reduction measures) there is not a single evaluation procedure. It is recommended to use a set of performance indicators. The strong year-to-year variability in occurrence of smog episodes makes it necessarily to use several years of data in the evaluation.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 9-35 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: climate change ; risk ; adaptation ; thresholds ; limits
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Adaptation in response to anthropogenic climate change seeks to maintain viability by maximising benefits and minimising losses. It is necessary because some climatic change is now inevitable, despite the international focus on mitigation measures. Indeed, the measures agreed at Kyoto would by themselves result in only a small reduction in the climate changes to be expected over the next century. Discussion of the expected changes and possible impacts leads to the following conclusions regarding climate change scenarios in relation to impacts and adaptation: • Climate change in the foreseeable future will not be some new stable "equilibrium" climate, but rather an ongoing "transient" process; • Climate change predictions relevant to impacts on most sectors and ecosystems are still highly uncertain; • There is a need for a greater focus on developing countries and tropical regions, and on relevant key variables, including the magnitude and frequency of extreme events; • The focus should shift from single predictions, or extreme ranges of uncertainty, to risk assessment; • Thresholds critical to impacted sectors and ecosystems should be identified, and expressed as functions of climatic variables; • Planned adaptations will be necessary to cope with multiple stresses, including those due to non-climatic changes; • A major task of adaptation science is to identify the limits of adaptation, i.e., to identify "dangerous levels of greenhouse gases" beyond which adaptation becomes impractical or prohibitively expensive.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 75-92 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: climate change ; mitigation ; market instruments ; Costa Rica
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Two decades of developing relevant legal and institutional regimes for the sustainable and nondestructive use of natural resources have framed Costa Rica's pioneer approach to mitigate climate change and conserve its rich biological diversity. This policy framework provides an appropriate context for the actual and proposed development of market instruments designed to attract capital investments for carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation, and allows the establishment of mechanisms to use those funds to compensate owners for the environmental services provided by their land. As a developing economy. Costa Rica is striving to internalize the benefits from the environmental services it offers, as a cornerstone of its sustainable development strategy.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 65-74 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: biodiversity ; climate variability ; climate change ; adaptation ; institutional reform
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract If current trends continue, human activities will drastically alter most of the planet's remaining natural ecosystems and their composite biota within a few decades. Compounding the impacts on biodiversity from deleterious management practices is climate variability and change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently concluded that there is ample evidence to suggest climate change is likely to result in significant impacts on biological diversity. These impacts are likely to be exacerbated by the secondary effects of climate change such as changes in the occurrence of wildfire, insect outbreaks and similar disturbances. Current changes in climate are very different from those of the past due to their rate and magnitude, the direct effects of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and because highly modified landscapes and an array of threatening processes limit the ability of terrestrial ecosystems and species to respond to changed conditions. One of the primary human adaptation option for conserving biodiversity is considered to be changes in management. The complex and overarching nature of climate change issues emphasises the need for greatly enhanced cooperation between scientists, policy makers, industry and the community to better understand key interactions and identify options for adaptation. A key challenge is to identify opportunities that facilitate sustainable development by making use of existing technologies and developing policies that enhance the resilience of climate-sensitive sectors. Measures to enhance the resilience of biodiversity must be considered in all of these activities if many ecosystem services essential to humanity are to be sustained. New institutional arrangements appear necessary at the regional and national level to ensure that policy initiatives and research directed at assessing and mitigating the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change are complementary and undertaken strategically and cost-effectively. Policy implementation at the national level to meet responsibilities arising from the UNFCCC (e.g., the Kyoto Protocol) and the UN Convention on Biological Diversity require greater coordination and integration between economic sectors, since many primary drivers of biodiversity loss and vulnerability are influenced at this level. A case study from the Australian continent is used to illustrate several key issues and discuss a basis for reform, including recommendations for facilitating adaptation to climate variability and change.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 49-64 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: climate change ; El Niño Southern Oscillation ; public health ; adaptation ; primary prevention
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Global climate change is likely to have a range of consequences for human health as a result of disturbance or weakening of the biosphere's natural or human-managed life support systems. The full range of potential human health impacts of global climate change is diverse and would be distributed differentially spatially and over time. Changes in the mortality toll of heatwaves and changes in the distribution of vector-borne infectious diseases may occur early. The public health consequences of sea level rise and of regional changes in agricultural productivity may not occur (or become apparent) for several decades. Vulnerability is a measure of both sensitivity to climate change and the ability to adapt in anticipation of, or in response to, its impacts. The basic modes of adaptation to climate-induced health hazards are biological, behavioural and social. Adaptation can be undertaken at the individual, community and whole-population levels. Adaptive strategies should not introduce new health hazards. Enhancement of the acknowledged public health infrastructure and intervention programmes is essential to reduce vulnerability to the health impacts of climate change. In the longer-term, fundamental improvements in the social and material conditions of life and in the reduction of inequalities within and between populations are required for sustained reduction in vulnerability to environmental health hazards.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 37-48 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: adaptation ; climate change ; integration ; impacts
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A mechanism has been established to improve integration of international climate-related programmes. Known as the Climate Agenda it outlines a programme, that in a cost-effective way, responds to national obligations to respond to international agreements as well as their national needs for social and economic development. The paper briefly describes the Climate Agenda and the incorporation within it of studies of climate impact assessments and response strategies to reduce vulnerability. The need for increased emphasis on climate impact assessment and for the development of effective adaptation measures is emphasised following the elaboration of a Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). UNEP's efforts to identify national programmes contributing to the Climate Agenda are described. The response from developing countries has, however, been very disappointing, even from countries where we know work is ongoing through funding by GEF or US Country Studies Program and other bilateral programmes. Initial compilation of information available so far shows that many developed countries are putting a lot into the area of impact assessment of not just climate change, but also climate variability. There remain some research gaps, especially in the area of assessment of climate impacts on ecosystems, hydrological systems, etc. Considerable efforts are presently being directed at reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases and in the case of developing countries, most efforts are being directed towards completing national communications and providing baseline data for future studies. The paper refers to early activities by UNEP in cooperation with other international organizations to undertake integrated assessments of the impacts of climate change on important socio-economic sectors and the later incorporation of lessons learned into the IPCC Guidelines for Assessing Impacts of Climate Change. Later sections outline the development of a handbook on methods for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies as a practical approach to national assessments and the development of appropriate and cost-effective response to climate change. The initiation of a GEF-funded project to apply the methods contained in the handbook and improve the results based on national studies is also described for both developed and developing countries. Working in collaboration with a team of international experts under the coordination of the Institute of Environmental Studies at Vrije University (Amsterdam), the goal of this ongoing project is to develop a valuable methodological tool that Parties to the UNFCCC may apply to develop national climate change impact and adaptation assessments. Development of these guidelines was linked to a series of country studies in Antigua and Barbuda, Estonia, Cameroon and Pakistan funded under a UNEP/GEF project. The application of the first version of the UNEP Handbook by national study teams in these four countries is making valuable technical and practical contributions and will ensure that the next version of the Handbook will be a more useful tool for experts in developing countries undertaking similar studies in the future. The methods contained in the Handbook are also the basis for similar assessments funded under bilateral development programmes in other countries. These and similar studies elsewhere are coordinated with the UNEP programme and will eventually aim to create reliable and comparable assessments, a compatible set of tools for such purpose and the identification of realistic adaptation options for incorporation into national planning for adapting to climate change. The paper also addresses how climate impact assessment and response strategies are undertaken as part of national enabling activities carried out in co-operation with UNEP.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 113-122 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: Amazon ; Brazil ; deforestation ; carbon sink ; climate change ; climatic variability ; forest conservation ; habitat fragmentation ; logging ; tropical forests
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes four global-change phenomena that are having major impacts on Amazonian forests. The first is accelerating deforestation and logging. Despite recent government initiatives to slow forest loss, deforestation rates in Brazilian Amazonia have increased from 1.1 million ha yr−1 in the early 1990s, to nearly 1.5 million ha yr−1 from 1992–1994, and to more than 1.9 million ha yr−1 from 1995–1998. Deforestation is also occurring rapidly in some other parts of the Amazon Basin, such as in Bolivia and Ecuador, while industrialized logging is increasing dramatically in the Guianas and central Amazonia. The second phenomenon is that patterns of forest loss and fragmentation are rapidly changing. In recent decades, large-scale deforestation has mainly occurred in the southern and eastern portions of the Amazon — in the Brazilian states of Pará, Maranhāo, Rondônia, Acre, and Mato Grosso, and in northern Bolivia. While rates of forest loss remain very high in these areas, the development of major new highways is providing direct conduits into the heart of the Amazon. If future trends follow past patterns, land-hungry settlers and loggers may largely bisect the forests of the Amazon Basin. The third phenomenon is that climatic variability is interacting with human land uses, creating additional impacts on forest ecosystems. The 1997/98 El Niño drought, for example, led to a major increase in forest burning, with wildfires raging out of control in the northern Amazonian state of Roraima and other locations. Logging operations, which create labyrinths of roads and tracks in forsts, are increasing fuel loads, desiccation and ignition sources in forest interiors. Forest fragmentation also increases fire susceptibility by creating dry, fire-prone forest edges. Finally, recent evidence suggests that intact Amazonian forests are a globally significant carbon sink, quite possibly caused by higher forest growth rates in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 fertilization. Evidence for a carbon sink comes from long-term forest mensuration plots, from whole-forest studies of carbon flux and from investigations of atmospheric CO2 and oxygen isotopes. Unfortunately, intact Amazonian forests are rapidly diminishing. Hence, not only is the destruction of these forests a major source of greenhouse gases, but it is reducing their intrinsic capacity to help buffer the rapid anthropogenic rise in CO2.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 145-159 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: climate change ; adaptation ; economic development
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Many developing countries, especially in Africa, contribute only very small amounts to the world total of greenhouse gas emissions. For them, the reduction of such emissions is not a priority, and the more important issue is to find ways to reduce their vulnerability to the projected climate change which is being imposed upon them largely as a result of emissions from developed countries. This priority does not accord with the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which is to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas emissions. This paper reports upon studies in Uganda designed to help in the development of a national adaptation strategy, and addresses the need to reconcile such a strategy with the global priority accorded to mitigation and with national economic development priorities. Some features of a national climate change adaptation strategy are identified and questions are raised about the need for an international regime to facilitate and support adaptation.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 193-205 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: human settlements ; climate change ; adaptation ; Africa
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Climate change impacts on African human settlements arise from a number of climate change-related causes, notably sea level changes, impacts on water resources, extreme weather events, food security, increased health risks from vector home diseases, and temperature-related morbidity in urban environments. Some coastlines and river deltas of Africa have densely populated low-lying areas, which would be affected by a rise in sea level. Other coastal settlements will be subjected to increased coastal erosion. Recent flooding in East Africa highlighted the vulnerability of flood plain settlements and the need to develop adaptive strategies for extreme weather events management and mitigation. In the semi arid and arid zones many settlements are associated with inland drainage water sources. Increases in drought will enhance water supply related vulnerabilities. Inter-basin and international water transfers raise the need for adequate legal frameworks that ensure equity among participating nations. Similarly, water supply and irrigation reservoirs in seasonal river catchments might fail, leading to poor sanitation in urban areas as well as food shortage. Hydroelectric power generation could be restricted in drought periods, and where it is a major contributor to the energy budget, reduced power generation could lead to a multiplicity of other impacts. States are advised to develop other sources of renewable energy. Temperature changes will lead to altered distribution of disease vectors such as mosquitoes, making settlements currently free of vector borne diseases vulnerable. Rapid breeding of the housefly could create a menace associated with enteric disorders, especially in conditions of poor sanitation. The dry savannahs of Africa are projected as possible future food deficit areas. Recurrent crop failures would lead to transmigration into urban areas. Pastoralists are likely to undertake more trans-boundary migrations and probably come into conflict with settled communities. Adaptive measures will involve methods of coastal defences (where applicable), a critical review of the energy sector, both regionally and nationally, a rigorous adherence to city hygiene procedures, an informed agricultural industry that is capable of adapting to changing climate in terms of cropping strategies, and innovations in environment design to maximise human comfort at minimum energy expenditure. In the savannah and arid areas water resource management systems will be needed to optimise water resource use and interstate co-operation where such resources are shared. Climate change issues discussed here raise the need for state support for more research and education in impacts of climate change on human settlements in Africa.
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 64 (2000), S. 213-225 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: biodiversity ; butterflies ; birds ; climate change ; montane vegetation ; remote sensing ; Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract We used a time series of satellite multispectral imagery for mapping and monitoring six classes of montane meadows arrayed along a moisture gradient (from hydric to mesic to xeric). We hypothesized that mesic meadows would support the highest species diversity of plants, birds, and butterflies because they are more moderate environments. We also hypothesized that mesic meadows would exhibit the greatest seasonal and interannual variability in spectral response across years. Field sampling in each of the meadow types was conducted for plants, birds, and butterflies in 1997 and 1998. Mesic meadows supported the highest plant species diversity, but there was no significant difference in bird or butterfly species diversity among meadow types. These data show that it may be easier to detect significant differences in more species rich taxa (e.g., plants) than taxa that are represented by fewer species (e.g., butterflies and birds). Mesic meadows also showed the greatest seasonal and interannual variability in spectral response. Given the rich biodiversity of mesic montane meadows and their sensitivity to variations in temperature and moisture, they may be important to monitor in the context of environmental change
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 65 (2000), S. 89-97 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) ; ozone ; artefact ; passive sampling ; active sampling ; scrubber ; formaldehyde ; acetaldehyde ; benzene ; toluene ; styrene
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Assessment of population exposure to VOC in ambient atmospheres is receiving heightened interest as the adverse health effects of chronic exposure to certain of these compounds are identified. Active (pumped) and passive samplers are the most commonly used devices for this type of monitoring. It has been shown, however, that these devices, along with all other preconcentration techniques, are susceptible to ozone interference. It is demonstrated that this interference occurs even at low ozone concentrations and that it may result in the under-estimation of population exposure. A convenient and effective ozone scrubbing method is identified and successfully applied and validated for both active and passive samplers for a range of VOC.
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  • 63
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    Studia geophysica et geodaetica 44 (2000), S. 57-72 
    ISSN: 1573-1626
    Keywords: extreme events ; heat wave ; tropical day ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Heat waves (periods of extremely hot summer weather) in the region of south Moravia are in the focus of this study. The introduced definition consists of three requirements imposed on the period that is considered a heat wave: at least three days with T MAX ≥30.0°C must be observed; the mean T MAX over the whole period is at least 30.0°C; and T MAX must not drop below 25.0°C. To compare the severity of the individual heat waves, various characteristics (duration, number of tropical days, peak temperature, cumulative temperature excess, precipitation amount) are examined. The heat wave index HWI is defined to express the severity of heat waves in the most comprehensive way. An extraordinary heat wave occurred in July and August 1994; it lasted more than a month at several stations, while the duration of a typical heat wave is only 4 - 7 days. The extremely long unbroken period of tropical days, and even of days with T MAX ≥32.0°C, represents the most distinct feature of the severe 1994 heat wave. With regard to heat wave characteristics, the summer temperature exceptionality of the early 1990s is indubitable.
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  • 64
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: eutrophication ; nitrogen ; phosphorus ; river ; sediment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations were determined in sediment samples along the bed of Catatumbo river in both Colombian and Venezuelan territories until the river outlet in Maracaibo lake. Total phosphorus was determined by digestion with HCl followed by analysis using the ascorbic acid method and total nitrogen was done using the standard microkjeldahl method plus nitrate-nitrite. Ammonium, orthophosphate and nitrate were determined using standard methods after extraction steps. The mean concentrations along the river bed were found in an interval of 0.035 and 1.492 mg g-1 dry sed. for nitrogen and 0.027 and 1.039 mg g-1 dry sed. for phosphorus at 95% confidence level. The mean molar ratio N/P in the river bed was 4.42 and 3.46 for river outlet zones in the lake, which indicates that nitrogen is the limiting nutrient. For comparison with previous results of lake sediments from sites near the river outlet it was concluded that Catatumbo river is a significant source of nutrients to the Maracaibo Lake system because sediment nutrients concentrations from Catatumbo river were higher than the ones in Maracaibo Lake. Statistic studies showed significant differences between countries, zones and similar behaviour in the river bed as related to the affluent rivers.
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  • 65
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidity ; air pollution ; ammonia ; atmospheric deposition ; base cations ; deposition model ; drought ; nitrogen oxides ; ozone ; sulphur ; temperature stress ; water balance
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In order to assess the relationship betweenenvironmental stress and crown condition of foresttrees monitored since 1986 in Europe, estimates ofstress factors, including temperature stress, droughtstress and air pollution stress, were derived with thebest data, methods and models currently available.This paper presents information on the methods used toderive such stress factors, and on the overall ranges,the temporal trends, the spatial distribution and thereliability of the calculated stress factors. Thetemperature stress indices did not show much temporalvariation between 1985 to 1995. As expected spatialpatterns were north-south orientated, going fromcolder northern regions to warmer southern regions.The calculated relative transpiration showed a morecomplex pattern, coinciding to a large extend withpatterns of rainfall and temperature. Potential aciddeposition decreased between 1986 and 1992, butremained fairly constant after 1992. The strongdecrease was mainly the result of the decrease inSOx deposition, and to a small decrease inNOy deposition. Highest levels of the S and Ndeposition were calculated in Central and WesternEurope. Base cation deposition was largest in coastalareas and in southern Europe. This is mainly due tosoil dust, Sahara dust and sea salt. Base cationdeposition can compensate almost entirely for thepotential inputs in the south of Europe, whereas incentral Europe it equalled about 25% of thepotential acid input. A comparison between sitespecific modelled deposition and deposition derivedfrom throughfall data showed that the total aciddeposition is usually overestimated by the model,whereas the total nitrogen deposition isunderestimated, especially at plots with high nitrogenloads. There is, however, a significant correlationbetween measured and modelled data for all S and Ndeposition, thus allowing their use in a statistical analyses.
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  • 66
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: nitrification ; nitrogen ; nitrogen mineralization ; soil water ; stream chemistry ; wilderness area
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Nitrogen (N) deposition and its impact on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems is a concern facing federal land managers at the Lye Brook Wilderness in Vermont and other protected aras throughout the northeastern United States. In this study, we compared N production in soils with N concentrations and outputs in leachates to determine how forest cover types differ in regulating N losses. Also, precipitation inputs and modeled estimates of streamwater outputs were used to calculate a watershed N budget. Most ammonium and nitrate were produced in organic soils with deciduous cover. Softwood stands had low net nitrification rates and minimal N leaching. A comparison of watershed inputs and outputs showed a net gain in total dissolved N (5.5 kg ha-1 yr-1) due to an accumulation of dissolved inorganic N. The Lye Brook Wilderness ecosystem has N budgets similar to other forested ecosystems in the region, and appears to be assimilating the accumulating N. However seasonal losses of nitrate observed in mineral soils and streamwater may be early warnings of the initial stages of N saturation.
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  • 67
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: chloramine ; chlorine ; chlorine dioxide ; disinfection by-products ; drinking water ; ozone
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Many drinking water treatment plants are currently using alternative disinfectants to treat drinking water, with ozone, chlorine dioxide, and chloramine being the most popular. However, compared to chlorine, which has been much more widely studied, there is little information about the disinfection by-products (DBPs) that these alternative disinfectants produce. Thus, it is not known if the DBPs from alternative disinfectants are safer or more hazardous than those formed by chlorine. To answer this question, we have set out to comprehensively identify DBPs formed by these alternative disinfectants, as well as by chlorine. The results presented here represent a compilation of the last 8 years of our research in identifying new DBPs from ozone, chlorine dioxide, chloramine, and chlorine. We also include results from recent studies of Israel drinking water disinfected with both chlorine dioxide and chloramine. Over 200 DBPs were identified, many of which have never been reported. In comparing by-products formed by the different disinfectants, ozone, chlorine dioxide, and chloramine formed fewer halogenated DBPs than chlorine.
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  • 68
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    Water, air & soil pollution 123 (2000), S. 195-201 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: air quality standards ; control strategies ; fine particles ; ozone
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Epidemiology studies relating health effects to ambient levels of ozone and fine particles have led to the modification of standards in the United States for these pollutants (substitution of an 8-h standard for ozone at 80 ppbv, and addition of 24-h and annual standards for fine particles). The interrelationships of these pollutants in the atmosphere suggest the need for an integrated, science-based strategy for their control. Secondary ozone formation has been controlled through emission controls on VOC and NOx precursors. Fine particles are secondary products largely resulting from the oxidation of precursors (SO2, NOx, and VOCs). The key intermediates in both types of secondary process are free radical species and the photochemically labile compounds that produce them in the atmosphere. However, due to the complex and nonlinear nature of the processes, reductions in precursors may lead to unexpected changes in ozone and fine particle formation rates. For example, reduction in NOx emissions may reduce ozone and nitric acid levels, but lead also to increased rates of sulfate formation in clouds and increased ammonia availability for neutralization of acidic sulfate aerosols. Reductions of SO2 may reduce aerosol sulfate levels in the summer, but have no effect in other seasons. Reductions in VOCs may reduce ozone levels in urban core areas, but not elsewhere. An integrated, regionally and seasonally specific, emission reduction strategy is needed to cost-effectively reduce both ozone and fine particle levels.
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  • 69
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: on-site treatment ; fecal coliform bacteria ; nitrate leaching ; nitrogen ; on-site treatment ; septic effluent
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Groundwater effluent sample collectors(zero-tension lysimeters) were installed directlybelow the drainfields of three residential onsitetreatment systems in the Clover/Chambers Creek aquiferregion of Pierce County near Tacoma, WA. The use of asplit effluent delivery system from the septic tank,where half the effluent was delivered under pressureto a normal native soil-only filter system and halfwas delivered to a sand filter system, allowed thedirect comparison of the two commonly-utilized septicsystems for treatment levels. Septic tank effluent(from the septic tank) and percolating water (between0.3 and 0.9 m beneath the effluent distributionlines) was collected between May 1991 and April 1994on 30 occasions. Samples were analyzed for fecalcoliform bacteria, nitrate, nitrite, ammonium andtotal reduced (Kjeldahl) nitrogen. Results of thisstudy indicate that the use of sand filters greatlyincreased removal of fecal coliform bacteria and totalnitrogen. Soil-only filter systems had an average of91% removal of fecal coliforms and 47%of total N; whereas sand filter systems had an averageof 99.8% removal of fecal coliforms and 80% of total N.
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  • 70
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    Water, air & soil pollution 124 (2000), S. 345-369 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: chloride ; climate ; deposition ; geostatistics ; kriging ; pattern ; Sweden
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Monthly bulk deposition of chloride at 49 stations in Southern Sweden between 1989 and 1995 was used to produce quarterly and annual deposition maps through ordinary block kriging. Generally, deposition decreases from the west coast and eastward and displays a large annual variation, governed by the frequency and intensity of midlatitude cyclones. The 1st quarter dominates the temporal pattern all years except 1992. The 4th quarter is the second most important and the 2nd and 3rd quarters have generallylow deposition. The spatial deposition maximum was often displaced from the west coast to the western fringe of the South Swedish highland, due to orographic enhancement of precipitation. On the western rise of the highland, deposition almost entirely co-variates with precipitation. On the west coast and in the eastern part of Southern Sweden, thetemporal pattern is a more complex result of precipitation and frequency of strong westerlies. Comparing the quarterly total dataset with precipitation and frequency of westerly gales shows that both the 3rd and 4th quarters have higher mean precipitation than the 1st quarter, but lower deposition, while the second quarter has substantially lower precipitation but almost equal deposition to the 3rd quarter. The frequency of westerly gales shows a clearer, linear relationship to quarterly deposition. The 1st quarter has the highest variability in deposition and precipitation as well as in frequency of westerly gales. The importance of single highlysalt laden cyclones to the annual deposition is obvious in the 1st quarter of 1993. Changes in cyclone activity due to climate change is therefore of vital importance for the chemical characteristics of the midlatitude atmosphere.
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  • 71
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: AOT40 ; beans ; ethylene diurea (EDU) ; ozone
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A study to evaluate the effects of ethylene diurea (EDU) as a protective antiozonant for beans (Phaseolus vulgaris) submitted to different ambient ozone concentrations was performed in three stations of the rural Network for Air Quality Monitoring (Catalonia, NE Spain). The highest ozone concentrations were accompanied by significant reductions in fruit yield, number of fruits and shoot biomass. These reductions were lower in plants treated with EDU. The results showed toxic ozone effects on sensitive species such as beans and a protective antiozonant effect of EDU. The intensity of the EDU protective effect differed among the different stations characterised by different meteorological conditions and O3 concentrations.
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  • 72
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: acidity ; air pollution ; ammonia ; AOT40 ; critical levels ; critical loads ; N deposition ; nitrogen oxides ; ozone ; Simple Mass Balance model ; sulphur
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The stress by air pollution at the systematicPan-European 16 × 16 km2 forest (crown) condition monitoring network, is discussed by comparingsite-specific estimates of critical and presentconcentration and deposition levels for S and Ncompounds and ozone. Results indicate that theexceedance of critical levels, related to directabove-ground impacts, decrease going from O3 〉SO2 〉 N compounds. Critical N loads related toeffects on the forest understorey are exceeded atapproximately 25% of the plots, located mainly inWestern and Central Europe. Critical N loads relatedto effects on trees are hardly ever exceeded, but mostlikely, this is an under estimate. Critical aciddeposition levels are exceeded at approximately 30%of the plots with a low base saturation, where acidinputs may release toxic Al. This is especially thecase in Central and Eastern Europe, where presentloads are high and in boreal forest in SouthernScandinavia where critical loads are low. Although theuncertainties in the calculated exceedances is large,the spatial pattern, which is most important for acorrelative study, seems reliable, implying that thecritical load concept is suitable for regional risk assessments.
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  • 73
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    Water, air & soil pollution 123 (2000), S. 259-271 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Keywords: climate change ; greenhouse gases ; greenhouse gases in Israel ; inventory of emissions of greenhouse gases
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract As a Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Israel is committed to develop a national inventory of anthropogenic emissions and removals of greenhouse gases. This paper presents the national inventory, which was developed according to the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The inventory includes the following sectors: energy, industrial processes, agriculture, forestry and waste. In this paper, only the inventory of the direct greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O) is presented. Emissions of these gases were converted to CO2 equivalent emissions by means of their Global Warming Potentials (a measure of the radiative effects of the different gases relatively to CO2). CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels to produce energy are by far the largest source (50 million tons in 1996). The contribution of methane emissions from decomposition of landfilled municipal solid waste is second in importance (8 million tons of CO2 equivalent). Industrial processes emit about 2 million tons CO2 equivalent, the most important process being cement production. Agricultural emissions amount to about 2 million tons CO2 equivalent and are due to soil emissions of nitrous oxide, methane emissions from enteric fermentation in domestic livestock and N2O and CH4 emissions from animal waste management. Although most forests in Israel are in a growing stage and atmospheric CO2 is therefore removed to form biomass, this removal amounts to 0.4 million tons only and is very small as compared to emissions from other sectors. On a per capita basis, Israel's emissions of CO2 from fuel combustion are not far behind those of some of the most developed countries.
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  • 74
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    Environmental and resource economics 16 (2000), S. 347-362 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: cost-effectiveness ; nitrogen ; nonpoint ; policy ; value ; wetlands
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Wetlands, in Sweden and elsewhere, have been suggestedas effective and low-cost sinks for agriculturalpollution. This paper estimates the value of usingwetlands for abatement of agricultural nitrogen loadon the Baltic Sea. A replacement value of wetlands isestimated for Sweden. The replacement value is definedand estimated as the difference between twocost-effective reductions of agricultural nitrogenpollution: one that uses wetlands for nitrogenabatement, and one that does not. It is shown that theuse of wetlands as nitrogen sinks can reduce the totalabatement costs of nitrogen emissions by 30% forSwedish agricultural sources of nitrogen pollution.
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  • 75
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Keywords: climate change ; technology policy ; uncertainty ; agent-based modeling ; exploratory modeling ; social interactions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Many governments use technology incentives as an important component of their greenhouse gas abatement strategies. These “carrots” are intended to encourage the initial diffusion of new, greenhouse-gas-emissions-reducing technologies, in contrast to carbon taxes and emissions trading which provide a “stick” designed to reduce emissions by increasing the price of high-emitting technologies for all users. Technology incentives appear attractive, but their record in practice is mixed and economic theory suggests that in the absence of market failures, they are inefficient compared to taxes and trading. This study uses an agent-based model of technology diffusion and exploratory modeling, a new technique for decision-making under conditions of extreme uncertainty, to examine the conditions under which technology incentives should be a key building block of robust climate change policies. We find that a combined strategy of carbon taxes and technology incentives, as opposed to carbon taxes alone, is the best approach to greenhouse gas emissions reductions if the social benefits of early adoption sufficiently exceed the private benefits. Such social benefits can occur when economic actors have a wide variety of cost/performance preferences for new technologies and either new technologies have increasing returns to scale or potential adopters can reduce their uncertainty about the performance of new technologies by querying the experience of other adopters. We find that if decision-makers hold even modest expectations that such social benefits are significant or that the impacts of climate change will turn out to be serious then technology incentive programs may be a promising hedge against the threat of climate change.
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  • 76
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Risk perceptions ; climate change ; knowledge ; environmental beliefs
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract The research reported here examines the relationship between risk perceptions and willingness to address climate change. The data are a national sample of 1225 mail surveys that include measures of risk perceptions and knowledge tied to climate change, support for voluntary and government actions to address the problem, general environmental beliefs, and demographic variables. Risk perceptions matter in predicting behavioral intentions. Risk perceptions are not a surrogate for general environmental beliefs, but have their own power to account for behavioral intentions. There are four secondary conclusions. First, behavioral intentions regarding climate change are complex and intriguing. People are neither “nonbelievers” who will take no initiatives themselves and oppose all government efforts, nor are they “believers” who promise both to make personal efforts and to vote for every government proposal that promises to address climate change. Second, there are separate demographic sources for voluntary actions compared with voting intentions. Third, recognizing the causes of global warming is a powerful predictor of behavioral intentions independent from believing that climate change will happen and have bad consequences. Finally, the success of the risk perception variables to account for behavioral intentions should encourage greater attention to risk perceptions as independent variables. Risk perceptions and knowledge, however, share the stage with general environmental beliefs and demographic characteristics. Although related, risk perceptions, knowledge, and general environmental beliefs are somewhat independent predictors of behavioral intentions.
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  • 77
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Uncertainty ; variability ; risk assessment ; risk management ; ozone ; clean air act ; social policy ; analysis of benefits and costs
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract This paper is a challenge from a pair of lifelong technical specialists in risk assessment for the risk-management community to better define social decision criteria for risk acceptance vs. risk control in relation to the issues of variability and uncertainty. To stimulate discussion, we offer a variety of “straw man” proposals about where we think variability and uncertainty are likely to matter for different types of social policy considerations in the context of a few different kinds of decisions. In particular, we draw on recent presentations of uncertainty and variability data that have been offered by EPA in the context of the consideration of revised ambient air quality standards under the Clean Air Act.
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  • 78
    ISSN: 1572-8900
    Keywords: Cellulose ; alkaline degradation ; peeling off ; degree of polymerization ; kinetics ; (gluco)isosaccharinic acid
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Mechanical Engineering, Materials Science, Production Engineering, Mining and Metallurgy, Traffic Engineering, Precision Mechanics
    Notes: Abstract The degradation of cellulosic materials, differing mainly in the degree of polymerization and the number of reducing end groups, was studied under the alkaline conditions similar to those existing in a cementitious repository for low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste (pH 13.3, T = 25°C). The kinetics of alkaline degradation (peeling-off reaction) were studied and the data analyzed by the model of Haas et al. [13]. The observed kinetic parameters for the propagation reaction and overall stopping reaction were compared with literature data. Although measured under different experimental conditions, literature data and data from this study show a consistent picture. Differences in the extent of degradation observed for the different cellulosic materials could be satisfactorily explained by differences in reducing end group content and, consequently, by differences in the degrees of polymerization. Besides the number of reducing end groups, the degree of amorphousness also plays an important role. The main degradation products formed under the experimental conditions used are α- and β-(gluco)isosaccharinic acid. This is in agreement with many other studies on alkaline degradation of cellulose. The two isomers are formed in roughly equal amounts.
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  • 79
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: environmental magnetism ; lacustrine marl ; late Glacial ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract We present the results of mineral magnetic measurements and geochemical analyses of late Glacial sediments from two marl-precipitating lakes in the Northwest of England. Mineral magnetic assemblages dominated by detrital and/or authigenic ferrimagnetic minerals, and enhanced delivery of metal elements, characterise a lower (Oldest Dryas) and an upper (Younger Dryas) phase of catchment instability, with detrital clay and silt sedimentation. Magnetic mineral assemblages with lower concentrations of finer ferrimagnetic grains characterise the authigenic carbonate sediments (marls). The marls indicate both enhanced lake productivity and catchment stability in response to prevailing warm conditions during the Bølling - Allerød Interstadial. The Bølling - Allerød marl phase contains two short-term, low amplitude shifts characterised by changes in the concentration and the size of ferrimagnetic grains. These shifts may represent the Older Dryas and the Amphi-Atlantic Oscillation, short-lived Northern hemisphere climatic deteriorations. Overall, the results suggest that marl lakes are sensitive indicators of Lateglacial climatic change, and that these changes are readily identifiable through the use of mineral magnetic measurements.
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  • 80
    ISSN: 1573-0417
    Keywords: Africa ; climate change ; conductivity ; diatoms ; Ethiopia ; Holocene ; lake levels ; palaeolimnology ; Rift Valley
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract A 6,500-year diatom stratigraphy has been used to infer hydrochemical changes in Lake Awassa, a topographically closed oligosaline lake in the Ethiopian Rift Valley. Conductivity was high from ~6400-6200 BP, and from 5200-4000 BP, with two brief episodes of lower conductivity during the latter period. Although the timing of the conductivity changes is similar to the timing of lake-level change in the nearby Zwai-Shalla basin, their directions are the reverse of that expected from a climatic cause. Dissolution of the tephras which precede both phases of high conductivity cannot explain the increases in salinity, because rhyolitic tephras are only sparingly soluble. Instead, the pulsed input of groundwater made saline by the reaction of silicate minerals and volcanic glass with carbonic acid, formed from the solution of carbon dioxide degassed from magma under the Awassa Caldera, is suggested as a plausible mechanism for the observed change in lake chemistry. Diatom-inferred hydrochemistry cannot therefore be used to reconstruct climate change in Lake Awassa.
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  • 81
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 59 (1999), S. 191-209 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Keywords: estimation ; geostatistics ; interpolation ; radionuclides ; soil
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Many environmental surveys require the implementation of estimation techniques to determine the spatial distribution of the variable being investigated. Traditional methods of interpolation and estimation, for example, inverse distance squared and triangulation often ignore features of the data set such as anisotropy which may have a significant impact on the quality of the estimates produced. Geostatistical techniques may offer an improved method of estimation by modelling the spatial continuity of the variable using semi-variogram analysis. The theoretical model fitted to the semi-variogram is then used in the assignation of weighting factors to the samples surrounding the location to be estimated. This paper outlines the results of a comparison between three common estimation methods, polygonal, triangulation and inverse distance squared and a geostatistical method, in the estimation of soil radionuclide activities. The geostatistical estimation method known as kriging performed best over a range of parameters used to test the performance of the methods. Kriging exhibited the best correlation between actual and estimated values, the narrowest error distribution and the lowest overall estimation error. Polygonal estimation was best at reproducing the data set distribution. Conditional bias was evident in all the methods, low values being over-estimated and high values being under-estimated.
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  • 82
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    Environmental modeling and assessment 4 (1999), S. 1-12 
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: Integrated Assessment ; participation ; focus groups ; modeling tools ; climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) is an approach which aims at developing methods which allow to combine evaluations of experts and lay people in the field of Integrated Assessment. Thus, policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are informed by scientific judgments and by valuations of “non-scientists”. For any PIA methodology the provision of insights, facts and figures about the policy problem at hand is crucial. In this paper we describe a PIA methodology which combines the social science research instrument “focus group” with a specific computer information tool, the “Personal CO2 Calculator” (PCC). The tool supports citizens in discussing and recommending measures on climate change policy. Based on our experiences, we plead for information instruments that are tuned to and assist concrete target groups with their specific interests. This helps that policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are based on both scientific knowledge as well as citizens' and stakeholders' policy preferences.
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  • 83
    ISSN: 1573-8868
    Keywords: geostatistics ; spatial interpolation ; spatial pattern ; surface-fitting algorithms
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Mathematics
    Notes: Abstract A factorial, computational experiment was conducted to compare the spatial interpolation accuracy of ordinary and universal kriging and two types of inverse squared-distance weighting. The experiment considered, in addition to these four interpolation methods, the effects of four data and sampling characteristics: surface type, sampling pattern, noise level, and strength of small-scale spatial correlation. Interpolation accuracy was measured by the natural logarithm of the mean squared interpolation error. Main effects of all five factors, all two-factor interactions, and several three-factor interactions were highly statistically significant. Among numerous findings, the most striking was that the two kriging methods were substantially superior to the inverse distance weighting methods over all levels of surface type, sampling pattern, noise, and correlation.
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  • 84
    ISSN: 1573-8868
    Keywords: conditional probabilities method ; self-calibrated method ; stochastic inversion ; probabilistic assessment ; geostatistics ; stochastic hydrology ; probability fields
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Mathematics
    Notes: Abstract The conditional probabilities (CP) method implements a new procedure for the generation of transmissivity fields conditional to piezometric head data capable to sample nonmulti-Gaussian random functions and to integrate soft and secondary information. The CP method combines the advantages of the self-calibrated (SC) method with probability fields to circumvent some of the drawbacks of the SC method—namely, its difficulty to integrate soft and secondary information or to generate non-Gaussian fields. The SC method is based on the perturbation of a seed transmissivity field already conditional to transmissivity and secondary data, with the perturbation being function of the transmissivity variogram. The CP method is also based on the perturbation of a seed field; however, the perturbation is made function of the full transmissivity bivariate distribution and of the correlation to the secondary data. The two methods are applied to a sample of an exhaustive non-Gaussian data set of natural origin to demonstrate the interest of using a simulation method that is capable to model the spatial patterns of transmissivity variability beyond the variogram. A comparison of the probabilistic predictions of convective transport derived from a Monte Carlo exercise using both methods demonstrates the superiority of the CP method when the underlying spatial variability is non-Gaussian.
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  • 85
    ISSN: 1573-868X
    Keywords: Osaka Bay ; sediment ; carbon ; nitrogen ; organic matter ; stable isotope ratio ; terrestrial organic matter ; TOC ; POC
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios (δ13C and δ15N) of surface sediments were measured within Osaka Bay, in the Seto Inland Sea in Japan, in order to better understand the sedimentation processes operating on both terrestrial and marine organic matter in the Bay. The δ13C and δ15N of surface sediments in the estuary of the Yodo River were less than −23‰ and 5‰ respectively, but increased in the area up to about 10 km from the river mouth. At greater distances they became constant (giving δ13C of about −20‰ and δ15N about 6‰). It can be concluded that large amounts of terrestrial organic matter exist near the mouth of the Yodo River. Stable isotope ratios in the estuary of the Yodo River within 10 km of the river mouth were useful indicators allowing study of the movement of terrestrial organic matter. Deposition rates for total organic carbon (TOC) and total nitrogen (TN) over the whole of the Bay were estimated to be 63,100 ton C/year and 7,590 ton N/year, respectively. The deposition rate of terrestrial organic carbon was estimated to be 13,200 (range 2,000–21,500) ton C/year for the whole of Osaka Bay, and terrestrial organic carbon was estimated to be about 21% (range 3–34) of the TOC deposition rate. The ratio of the deposition rate of terrestrial organic carbon to the rate inflow of riverine TOC and particulate organic carbon (POC) were estimated to be 19% (range 3–31) and 76% (range 12–100), respectively.
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  • 86
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    Journal of oceanography 55 (1999), S. 197-205 
    ISSN: 1573-868X
    Keywords: Japan Sea ; Japan Sea Proper Water ; climate change ; long-term variation ; one-dimensional model
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Observed potential temperatures and concentrations of dissolved oxygen are analyzed to elucidate their variations during the period from 1958 to 1996 at Stn. P (37°43′ N, 134°43′ E) and from 1965 to 1996 at Stn. H (40°30′ N, 137°40′ E) in the Japan Sea. At Stn. P, increases of the potential temperature for the period are found below 800 m depth with the largest value of 0.16 ± 0.09°C per century at 800 m depth. At Stn. H, the potential temperature increased below 500 m depth. The increase rate has the largest value of 0.50 ± 0.18°C per century at 500 m depth and it is 0.30 ± 0.09°C per century at 800 m depth. The concentrations of dissolved oxygen increased around 800 m depth at Stn. P. At Stn. H, they increased above 800 m depth. On the other hand, they decreased below 1200 m depth at both stations. The layer of the dissolved oxygen minimum has deepened in these decades. These features appearing in the distributions of temperature and dissolved oxygen are successively simulated by a vertical one-dimensional advection-diffusion model including consumption of dissolved oxygen and termination of the deep water supply. These results suggest that the supply of the Japan Sea Proper Water into the deep layer, which is cold and rich in dissolved oxygen, has been decreasing for the last four decades.
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  • 87
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Keywords: Baltic Sea ; cyanobacteria ; estuaries ; grazing ; iron ; lakes ; molybdenum ; nitrogen ; nitrogen fixation ; nitrogen limitation ; Zooplankton
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Explaining the nearly ubiquitous absence of nitrogen fixation by planktonic organisms in strongly nitrogen-limited estuaries presents a major challenge to aquatic ecologists. In freshwater lakes of moderate productivity, nitrogen limitation is seldom maintained for long since heterocystic, nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria bloom, fix nitrogen, and alleviate the nitrogen limitation. In marked contrast to lakes, this behavior occurs in only a few estuaries worldwide. Primary production is limited by nitrogen in most temperate estuaries, yet no measurable planktonic nitrogen fixation occurs. In this paper, we present the hypothesis that the absence of planktonic nitrogen fixers from most estuaries is due to an interaction of bottom-up and top-down controls. The availability of Mo, a trace metal required for nitrogen fixation, is lower in estuaries than in freshwater lakes. This is not an absolute physiological constraint against the occurrence of nitrogen-fixing organisms, but the lower Mo availability may slow the growth rate of these organisms. The slower growth rate makes nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria in estuaries more sensitive to mortality from grazing by Zooplankton and benthic organisms. We use a simple, mechanistically based simulation model to explore this hypothesis. The model correctly predicts the timing of the formation of heterocystic, cyanobacterial blooms in freshwater lakes and the magnitude of the rate of nitrogen fixation. The model also correctly predicts that high Zooplankton biomasses in freshwaters can partially suppress blooms of nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria, even in strongly nitrogen-limited lakes. Further, the model indicates that a relatively small and environmentally realistic decrease in Mo availability, such as that which may occur in seawater compared to freshwaters due to sulfate inhibition of Mo assimilation, can suppress blooms of heterocystic cyanobacteria and prevent planktonic nitrogen fixation. For example, the model predicts that at a Zooplankton biomass of 0.2 mg l−1, cyanobacteria will bloom and fix nitrogen in lakes but not in estuaries of full-strength seawater salinity because of the lower Mo availability. Thus, the model provides strong support for our hypothesis that bottom-up and top-down controls may interact to cause the absence of planktonic nitrogen fixation in most estuaries. The model also provides a basis for further exploration of this hypothesis in individual estuarine systems and correctly predicts that planktonic nitrogen fixation can occur in low salinity estuaries, such as the Baltic Sea, where Mo availability is greater than in higher salinity estuaries.
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  • 88
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Keywords: N15 ; nitrogen ; nutrient cycling ; plants ; stable isotopes ; soil ; temperate forest ; tropical forest
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Several lines of evidence suggest that nitrogen in most tropical forests is relatively more available than N in most temperate forests, and even that it may function as an excess nutrient in many tropical forests. If this is correct, tropical forests should have more open N cycles than temperate forests, with both inputs and outputs of N large relative to N cycling within systems. Consequent differences in both the magnitude and the pathways of N loss imply that tropical forests should in general be more 15N enriched than are most temperate forests. In order to test this hypothesis, we compared the nitrogen stable isotopic composition of tree leaves and soils from a variety of tropical and temperate forests. Foliar δ15N values from tropical forests averaged 6.5‰ higher than from temperate forests. Within the tropics, ecosystems with relatively low N availability (montane forests, forests on sandy soils) were significantly more depleted in 15N than other tropical forests. The average δ15N values for tropical forest soils, either for surface or for depth samples, were almost 8‰ higher than temperate forest soils. These results provide another line of evidence that N is relatively abundant in many tropical forest ecosystems.
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  • 89
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Keywords: estuaries ; lakes ; marine ; nitrogen ; phosphorus ; rivers ; streams ; temperate ; tropics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Published data and analyses from temperate and tropical aquatic systems are used to summarize knowledge about the potential impact of land-use alteration on the nitrogen biogeochemistry of tropical aquatic ecosystems, identify important patterns and recommend key needs for research. The tropical N-cycle is traced from pre-disturbance conditions through the phases of disturbance, highlighting major differences between tropical and temperate systems that might influence development strategies in the tropics. Analyses suggest that tropical freshwaters are more frequently N-limited than temperate zones, while tropical marine systems may show more frequent P limitation. These analyses indicate that disturbances to pristine tropical lands will lead to greatly increased primary production in freshwaters and large changes in tropical freshwater communities. Increased freshwater nutrient flux will also lead to an expansion of the high production, N- and light-limited zones around river deltas, a switch from P- to N-limitation in calcareous marine systems, with large changes in the community composition of fragile mangrove and reef systems. Key information gaps are highlighted, including data on mechanisms of nutrient transport and atmospheric deposition in the tropics, nutrient and material retention capacities of tropical impoundments, and N/P coupling and stoichiometric impacts of nutrient supplies on tropical aquatic communities. The current base of biogeochemical data suggests that alterations in the N-cycle will have greater impacts on tropical aquatic ecosystems than those already observed in the temperate zone.
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  • 90
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Keywords: Baltic Sea ; cyanobacteria ; estuaries ; grazing ; iron ; lakes ; molybdenum ; nitrogen ; nitrogen fixation ; nitrogen limitation ; zooplankton
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Explaining the nearly ubiquitous absence of nitrogen fixation by planktonic organisms in strongly nitrogen-limited estuaries presents a major challenge to aquatic ecologists. In freshwater lakes of moderate productivity, nitrogen limitation is seldom maintained for long since heterocystic, nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria bloom, fix nitrogen, and alleviate the nitrogen limitation. In marked contrast to lakes, this behavior occurs in only a few estuaries worldwide. Primary production is limited by nitrogen in most temperate estuaries, yet no measurable planktonic nitrogen fixation occurs. In this paper, we present the hypothesis that the absence of planktonic nitrogen fixers from most estuaries is due to an interaction of bottom-up and top-down controls. The availability of Mo, a trace metal required for nitrogen fixation, is lower in estuaries than in freshwater lakes. This is not an absolute physiological constraint against the occurrence of nitrogen-fixing organisms, but the lower Mo availability may slow the growth rate of these organisms. The slower growth rate makes nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria in estuaries more sensitive to mortality from grazing by zooplankton and benthic organisms. We use a simple, mechanistically based simulation model to explore this hypothesis. The model correctly predicts the timing of the formation of heterocystic, cyanobacterial blooms in freshwater lakes and the magnitude of the rate of nitrogen fixation. The model also correctly predicts that high zooplankton biomasses in freshwaters can partially suppress blooms of nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria, even in strongly nitrogen-limited lakes. Further, the model indicates that a relatively small and environmentally realistic decrease in Mo availability, such as that which may occur in seawater compared to freshwaters due to sulfate inhibition of Mo assimilation, can suppress blooms of heterocystic cyanobacteria and prevent planktonic nitrogen fixation. For example, the model predicts that at a zooplankton biomass of 0.2 mg l−1, cyanobacteria will bloom and fix nitrogen in lakes but not in estuaries of full-strength seawater salinity because of the lower Mo availability. Thus, the model provides strong support for our hypothesis that bottom-up and top-down controls may interact to cause the absence of planktonic nitrogen fixation in most estuaries. The model also provides a basis for further exploration of this hypothesis in individual estuarine systems and correctly predicts that planktonic nitrogen fixation can occur in low salinity estuaries, such as the Baltic Sea, where Mo availability is greater than in higher salinity estuaries.
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  • 91
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    Mathematical geology 31 (1999), S. 47-65 
    ISSN: 1573-8868
    Keywords: geostatistics ; prior distribution ; likelihood function ; posterior distribution ; variogram ; covariance ; range
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Mathematics
    Notes: Abstract This paper shows the application of the Bayesian inference approach in estimating spatial covariance parameters. This methodology is particularly valuable where the number of experimental data is small, as occurs frequently in modeling reservoirs in petroleum engineering or when dealing with hydrodynamic variables in groundwater hydrology. There are two main advantages of Bayesian estimation: firstly that the complete distribution of the parameters is estimated and, from this distribution, it is a straightforward procedure to obtain point estimates, confidence regions, and interval estimates; secondly, all the prior information about the parameters (information available before the data are collected) is included in the inference procedure through their prior distribution. The results obtained from simulation studies are discussed.
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  • 92
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    Mathematical geology 31 (1999), S. 651-684 
    ISSN: 1573-8868
    Keywords: space–time models ; geostatistics ; time series ; trend models ; stochastic simulation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Mathematics
    Notes: Abstract Geostatistical space–time models are used increasingly for addressing environmental problems, such as monitoring acid deposition or global warming, and forecasting precipitation or stream flow. Each discipline approaches the problem of joint space–time modeling from its own perspective, a fact leading to a significant amount of overlapping models and, possibly, confusion. This paper attempts an annotated survey of models proposed in the literature, stating contributions and pinpointing shortcomings. Stochastic models that extend spatial statistics (geostatistics) to include the additional time dimension are presented with a common notation to facilitate comparison. Two conceptual viewpoints are distinguished: (1) approaches involving a single spatiotemporal random function model, and (2) approaches involving vectors of space random functions or vectors of time series. Links between these two viewpoints are then revealed; advantages and shortcomings are highlighted. Inference from space–time data is revisited, and assessment of joint space–time uncertainty via stochastic imaging is suggested.
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  • 93
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    Biogeochemistry 44 (1999), S. 93-118 
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Keywords: Everglades National Park ; mangrove soils ; organic matter ; nitrogen ; phosphorus ; sedimentation ; simulation model
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The distribution and accumulation of organic matter, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in mangrove soils at four sites along the Shark River estuary of south Florida were investigated with empirical measures and a process-based model. The mangrove nutrient model (NUMAN) was developed from the SEMIDEC marsh organic matter model and parameterized with data from mangrove wetlands. The soil characteristics in the four mangrove sites varied greatly in both concentrations and profiles of soil carbon, N and P. Organic matter decreased from 82% in the upstream locations to 30% in the marine sites. Comparisons of simulated and observed results demonstrated that landscape gradients of soil characteristics along the estuary can be adequately modeled by accounting for plant production, litter decomposition and export, and allochthonous input of mineral sediments. Model sensitivity analyses suggest that root production has a more significant effect on soil composition than litter fall. Model simulations showed that the greatest change in organic matter, N, and P occurred from the soil surface to 5 cm depth. The rapid decomposition of labile organic matter was responsible for this decrease in organic matter. Simulated N mineralization rates decreased quickly with depth, which corresponded with the decrease of labile organic matter. The increase in organic matter content and decrease in soil bulk density from mangrove sites at downstream locations compared to those at upstream locations was controlled mainly by variation in allochthonous inputs of mineral matter at the mouth of the estuary, along with gradients in mangrove root production. Research on allochthonouns sediment input and in situ root production of mangroves is limited compared to their significance to understanding nutrient biogeochemistry of these wetlands. More accurate simulations of temporal patterns of nutrient characteristics with depth will depend on including the effects of disturbance such as hurricanes on sediment redistribution and biomass production.
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  • 94
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Keywords: Chaohu Lake ; chemical fertilizer ; cycling ; denitrification ; multipond system ; nitrogen ; nutrient budget ; phosphorus
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract During a two-year field study, an annual nutrient budget and cycles were developed for a small agricultural watershed. The study emphasized the integrated unit of the watershed in understanding the biogeochemistry. It was found that the total nutrient input was 39.1× 104 kg nitrogen and 3.91×104 kg phosphorus in the year 1995, of which the greatest input of nutrients to the watershed was chemical fertilizer application, reaching 34.7×104 kg (676 kg/ha) nitrogen and 3.88×104 kg (76 kg/ha) phosphorus. The total nutrient output from the watershed was 13.55×104 kg nitrogen and 0.40×104 kg phosphorus, while the largest output of nitrogen was denitrification, accounting for 44.1% of N output; the largest output of phosphorus was sale of crops, accounting for 99.4% of P output. The results show that the nutrient input is larger than output, demonstrating that there is nutrient surplus within the watershed, a surplus which may become a potential source of nonpoint pollution to area waters. The research showed that both denitrification and volatilization of nitrogen are key ways of nitrogen loss from the watershed. This suggests that careful management of fertilizer application will be important for the sustainable development of agriculture. The research demonstrated that a multipond system within the watershed had high retention rate for both water and nutrients, benefiting the water, nutrient and sediment recycling in the terrestrial ecosystem and helping to reduce agricultural nonpoint pollution at its source. Therefore, this unique watershed system should be recommended due to its great potential relevance for sustainable agricultural development.
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  • 95
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Keywords: Chihuahuan desert ; desert ; desertification ; grassland ; nitrogen ; nutrient budgets ; phosphorus ; runoff
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Rainfall simulation experiments were performed in areas of semiarid grassland (Bouteloua eriopoda) and arid shrubland (Larrea tridentata) in the Chihuahuan desert of New Mexico. The objective was to compare the runoff of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) from these habitats to assess whether losses of soil nutrients are associated with the invasion of grasslands by shrubs. Runoff losses from grass- and shrub-dominated plots were similar, and much less than from bare plots located in the shrubland. Weighted average concentrations of total dissolved N compounds in runoff were greatest in the grassland (1.72 mg/1) and lowest in bare plots in the shrubland (0.55 mg/1). More than half of the N transported in runoff was carried in dissolved organic compounds. In grassland and shrub plots, the total N loss was highly correlated to the total volume of discharge. We estimate that the total annual loss of N in runoff is 0.25 kg/ha/yr in grasslands and 0.43 kg/ha/yr in shrublands — consistent with the depletion of soil N during desertification of these habitats. Losses of P from both habitats were very small.
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  • 96
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    Biogeochemistry 44 (1999), S. 93-118 
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Keywords: Everglades National Park ; mangrove soils ; organic matter ; nitrogen ; phosphorus ; sedimentation ; simulation model
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The distribution and accumulation of organic matter, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in mangrove soils at four sites along the Shark River estuary of south Florida were investigated with empirical measures and a process-based model. The mangrove nutrient model (NUMAN) was developed from the SEMIDEC marsh organic matter model and parameterized with data from mangrove wetlands. The soil characteristics in the four mangrove sites varied greatly in both concentrations and profiles of soil carbon, N and P. Organic matter decreased from 82% in the upstream locations to 30% in the marine sites. Comparisons of simulated and observed results demonstrated that landscape gradients of soil characteristics along the estuary can be adequately modeled by accounting for plant production, litter decomposition and export, and allochthonous input of mineral sediments. Model sensitivity analyses suggest that root production has a more significant effect on soil composition than litter fall. Model simulations showed that the greatest change in organic matter, N, and P occurred from the soil surface to 5 cm depth. The rapid decomposition of labile organic matter was responsible for this decrease in organic matter. Simulated N mineralization rates decreased quickly with depth, which corresponded with the decrease of labile organic matter. The increase in organic matter content and decrease in soil bulk density from mangrove sites at downstream locations compared to those at upstream locations was controlled mainly by variation in allochthonous inputs of mineral matter at the mouth of the estuary, along with gradients in mangrove root production. Research on allochthonouns sediment input and in situ root production of mangroves is limited compared to their significance to understanding nutrient biogeochemistry of these wetlands. More accurate simulations of temporal patterns of nutrient characteristics with depth will depend on including the effects of disturbance such as hurricanes on sediment redistribution and biomass production.
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  • 97
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Keywords: Chaohu Lake ; chemical fertilizer ; cycling ; denitrification ; multipond system ; nitrogen ; nutrient budget ; phosphorus
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract During a two-year field study, an annual nutrient budget and cycles were developed for a small agricultural watershed. The study emphasized the integrated unit of the watershed in understanding the biogeochemistry. It was found that the total nutrient input was 39.1 × 104 kg nitrogen and 3.91 × 104 kg phosphorus in the year 1995, of which the greatest input of nutrients to the watershed was chemical fertilizer application, reaching 34.7 × 104 kg (676 kg/ha) nitrogen and 3.88 × 104 kg (76 kg/ha) phosphorus. The total nutrient output from the watershed was 13.55 × 104 kg nitrogen and 0.40 × 104 kg phosphorus, while the largest output of nitrogen was denitrification, accounting for 44.1% of N output; the largest output of phosphorus was sale of crops, accounting for 99.4% of P output. The results show that the nutrient input is larger than output, demonstrating that there is nutrient surplus within the watershed, a surplus which may become a potential source of nonpoint pollution to area waters. The research showed that both denitrification and volatilization of nitrogen are key ways of nitrogen loss from the watershed. This suggests that careful management of fertilizer application will be important for the sustainable development of agriculture. The research demonstrated that a multipond system within the watershed had high retention rate for both water and nutrients, benefiting the water, nutrient and sediment recycling in the terrestrial ecosystem and helping to reduce agricultural nonpoint pollution at its source. Therefore, this unique watershed system should be recommended due to its great potential relevance for sustainable agricultural development.
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  • 98
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Keywords: atmospheric deposition ; moss ; bog ; nitrogen ; phosphorus ; water table
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Nitrogen additions as NH4NO3 corresponding to 0 (N0), 1 (N1), 3 (N3) and 10 (N10) g N m−2 yr−1 were made toSphagnum magellanicurn cores at two-week intervalsin situ at four sites across Europe, i.e. Lakkasuo (Finland). Männikjärve (Estonia), Moidach More (UK) and Côte de Braveix (France). The same treatments were applied in a glasshouse experiment in Neuchâtel (Switzerland) in which the water table depth was artificially maintained at 7, 17 and 37 cm below the moss surface. In the field, N assimilation in excess of values in wet deposition occurred in the absence of growth, but varied widely between sites, being absent in Lakkasuo (moss N∶P ratio 68) and greatest in Moidach More (N∶P 21). In the glasshouse, growth was reduced by lowering the water table without any apparent effect on N assimilation. Total N content of the moss in field sites increased as the mean depth of water table increased indicating growth limitation leading to increased N concentrations which could reduce the capacity for N retention. Greater contents of NH4 + in the underlying peat at 30 cm depth, both in response to NH4NO3 addition and in the unamended cores confirmed poor retention of inorganic N by the moss at Lakkasuo. Nitrate contents in the profiles at Lakkasuo, Moidach More, and Côte de Braveix were extremely low, even in the N10 treatment, but in Männikjärve, where the mean depth of water table was greatest and retention absent, appreciable amounts of NO3 − were detected in all cores. It is concluded that peatland drainage would reduce the capture of inorganic N in atmospheric deposition bySphagnum mosses.
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  • 99
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Keywords: N15 ; nitrogen ; nutrient cycling ; plants ; stable isotopes ; soil ; temperate forest ; tropical forest
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Several lines of evidence suggest that nitrogen in most tropical forests is relatively more available than N in most temperate forests, and even that it may function as an excess nutrient in many tropical forests. If this is correct, tropical forests should have more open N cycles than temperate forests, with both inputs and outputs of N large relative to N cycling within systems. Consequent differences in both the magnitude and the pathways of N loss imply that tropical forests should in general be more15N enriched than are most temperate forests. In order to test this hypothesis, we compared the nitrogen stable isotopic composition of tree leaves and soils from a variety of tropical and temperate forests. Foliar δ15N values from tropical forests averaged 6.5‰ higher than from temperate forests. Within the tropics, ecosystems with relatively low N availability (montane forests, forests on sandy soils) were significantly more depleted in15N than other tropical forests. The average δ15N values for tropical forest soils, either for surface or for depth samples, were almost 8‰ higher than temperate forest soils. These results provide another line of evidence that N is relatively abundant in many tropical forest ecosystems.
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  • 100
    ISSN: 1573-515X
    Keywords: estuaries ; lakes ; marine ; nitrogen ; phosphorus ; rivers ; streams ; temperate ; tropics
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Published data and analyses from temperate and tropical aquatic systems are used to summarize knowledge about the potential impact of land-use alteration on the nitrogen biogeochemistry of tropical aquatic ecosystems, identify important patterns and recommend key needs for research. The tropical N-cycle is traced from pre-disturbance conditions through the phases of disturbance, highlighting major differences between tropical and temperate systems that might influence development strategies in the tropics. Analyses suggest that tropical freshwaters are more frequently N-limited than temperate zones, while tropical marine systems may show more frequent P limitation. These analyses indicate that disturbances to pristine tropical lands will lead to greatly increased primary production in freshwaters and large changes in tropical freshwater communities. Increased freshwater nutrient flux will also lead to an expansion of the high production, N- and light-limited zones around river deltas, a switch from P- to N-limitation in calcareous marine systems, with large changes in the community composition of fragile mangrove and reef systems. Key information gaps are highlighted, including data on mechanisms of nutrient transport and atmospheric deposition in the tropics, nutrient and material retention capacities of tropical impoundments, and N/P coupling and stoichiometric impacts of nutrient supplies on tropical aquatic communities. The current base of biogeochemical data suggests that alterations in the N-cycle will have greater impacts on tropical aquatic ecosystems than those already observed in the temperate zone.
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