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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 31 (2018): 6245-6261, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0513.1.
    Description: Reconstructions of sea surface temperature (SST) based on instrumental observations suggest that the equatorial Pacific zonal SST gradient has increased over the twentieth century. While this increase is suggestive of the ocean dynamical thermostat mechanism of Clement et al., observations of a concurrent weakening of the zonal atmospheric (Walker) circulation are not. Here we show, using heat and momentum budget calculations on an ocean reanalysis dataset, that a seasonal weakening of the zonal atmospheric circulation is in fact consistent with cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) and thus an increase in the zonal SST gradient. This cooling is driven by a strengthening Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) in response to decreased upper-ocean westward momentum associated with weakening equatorial zonal wind stress. This process can help to reconcile the seemingly contradictory twentieth-century trends in the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean. Moreover, it is shown that coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) do not correctly simulate this process; we identify a systematic bias in the relationship between changes in equatorial surface zonal wind stress in the EEP and EUC strength that may help to explain why observations and CGCMs have opposing trends in the zonal SST gradient over the twentieth century.
    Description: 2019-01-11
    Keywords: Tropics ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Trends
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Carbon Balance and Management 12 (2017): 10, doi:10.1186/s13021-017-0077-x.
    Description: Determining national carbon stocks is essential in the framework of ongoing climate change mitigation actions. Presently, assessment of carbon stocks in the context of greenhouse gas (GHG)-reporting on a nation-by-nation basis focuses on the terrestrial realm, i.e., carbon held in living plant biomass and soils, and on potential changes in these stocks in response to anthropogenic activities. However, while the ocean and underlying sediments store substantial quantities of carbon, this pool is presently not considered in the context of national inventories. The ongoing disturbances to both terrestrial and marine ecosystems as a consequence of food production, pollution, climate change and other factors, as well as alteration of linkages and C-exchange between continental and oceanic realms, highlight the need for a better understanding of the quantity and vulnerability of carbon stocks in both systems. We present a preliminary comparison of the stocks of organic carbon held in continental margin sediments within the Exclusive Economic Zone of maritime nations with those in their soils. Our study focuses on Namibia, where there is a wealth of marine sediment data, and draws comparisons with sediment data from two other countries with different characteristics, which are Pakistan and the United Kingdom. Results indicate that marine sediment carbon stocks in maritime nations can be similar in magnitude to those of soils. Therefore, if human activities in these areas are managed, carbon stocks in the oceanic realm—particularly over continental margins—could be considered as part of national GHG inventories. This study shows that marine sediment organic carbon stocks can be equal in size or exceed terrestrial carbon stocks of maritime nations. This provides motivation both for improved assessment of sedimentary carbon inventories and for reevaluation of the way that carbon stocks are assessed and valued. The latter carries potential implications for the management of human activities on coastal environments and for their GHG inventories.
    Description: We acknowledge research support from ETH Zurich and the Swiss National Science Foundation.
    Keywords: Carbon stocks ; Sediments ; Oceans ; Climate change ; Exclusive Economic Zone ; Carbon inventory
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ambio 46, Supple. 1 (2017): 160-173, doi:10.1007/s13280-016-0870-x.
    Description: Long-term measurements of ecological effects of warming are often not statistically significant because of annual variability or signal noise. These are reduced in indicators that filter or reduce the noise around the signal and allow effects of climate warming to emerge. In this way, certain indicators act as medium pass filters integrating the signal over years-to-decades. In the Alaskan Arctic, the 25-year record of warming of air temperature revealed no significant trend, yet environmental and ecological changes prove that warming is affecting the ecosystem. The useful indicators are deep permafrost temperatures, vegetation and shrub biomass, satellite measures of canopy reflectance (NDVI), and chemical measures of soil weathering. In contrast, the 18-year record in the Greenland Arctic revealed an extremely high summer air-warming of 1.3°C/decade; the cover of some plant species increased while the cover of others decreased. Useful indicators of change are NDVI and the active layer thickness.
    Description: The Toolik research was supported in part by NSF Grants DEB 0207150, DEB 1026843, ARC 1107701, and ARC 1504006.
    Keywords: Alaska Toolik ; Climate change ; Ecological effects ; Greenland Zackenberg ; Medium pass filter ; Vegetation
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 2735-2768, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0134.1.
    Description: In Greenland’s glacial fjords, heat and freshwater are exchanged between glaciers and the ocean. Submarine melting of glaciers has been implicated as a potential trigger for recent glacier acceleration, and observations of ocean heat transport are increasingly being used to infer the submarine melt rates. The complete heat, salt, and mass budgets that underlie such methods, however, have been largely neglected. Here, a new framework for exploring glacial fjord budgets is developed. Building on estuarine studies of salt budgets, the heat, salt, and mass transports through the fjord are decomposed, and new equations for calculating freshwater fluxes from submarine meltwater and runoff are presented. This method is applied to moored records from Sermilik Fjord, near the terminus of Helheim Glacier, to evaluate the dominant balances in the fjord budgets and to estimate freshwater fluxes. Throughout the year, two different regimes are found. In the nonsummer months, advective transports are balanced by changes in heat/salt storage within their ability to measure; freshwater fluxes cannot be inferred as a residual. In the summer, a mean exchange flow emerges, consisting of inflowing Atlantic water and outflowing glacially modified water. This exchange transports heat toward the glacier and is primarily balanced by changes in storage and latent heat for melting ice. The total freshwater flux increases over the summer, reaching 1200 ± 700 m3 s−1 of runoff and 1500 ± 500 m3 s−1 of submarine meltwater from glaciers and icebergs in August. The methods and results highlight important components of fjord budgets, particularly the storage and barotropic terms, that have been not been appropriately considered in previous estimates of submarine melting.
    Description: The data collection and analysis was funded by NSF Grants ARC-0909373, OCE-113008, and OCE-1434041.
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Estuaries ; Glaciers ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Coastal flows ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Freshwater ; Snowmelt/icemelt ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; In situ oceanic observations
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 2645-2662, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0191.1.
    Description: The occurrence, drivers, and implications of small-scale O(2–5) km diameter coherent vortices, referred to as submesoscale eddies, over the inner shelf south of Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts, are examined using high-frequency (HF), radar-based, high-resolution (400 m) observations of surface currents. Within the 300 km2 study area, eddies occurred at rates of 1 and 4 day−1 in winter and summer, respectively. Most were less than 5 h in duration, smaller than 4 km in diameter, and rotated less than once over their lifespan; 60% of the eddies formed along the eastern edge of study area, adjacent to Wasque Shoal, and moved westward into the interior, often with relative vorticity greater than f. Eddy generation was linked to vortex stretching on the ebb and flood tide as well as the interaction of the spatially variable tide and the wind-driven currents; however, these features had complex patterns of surface divergence and stretching. Eddies located away from Wasque Shoal were related to the movement of wind-driven surface currents, as wind direction controlled where eddies formed as well as density effects. Using an analysis of particles advected within the radar-based surface currents, the observed eddies were found to be generally leaky, losing 60%–80% of particles over their lifespan, but still more retentive than the background flow. As a result, the combined translation and rotational effects of the observed eddies were an important source of lateral exchange for surface waters over the inner shelf.
    Description: The HF radar data utilized here were obtained using internal funding from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. The analysis was supported by NSF OCE Grant 1332646.
    Description: 2017-02-19
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Continental shelf/slope ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Currents ; Eddies ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; Radars/Radar observations
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 361–367, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0171.1.
    Description: Idealized laboratory experiments investigate the glacier–ocean boundary dynamics near a vertical glacier in a two-layer stratified fluid. Discharge of meltwater runoff at the base of the glacier (subglacial discharge) enhances submarine melting. In the laboratory, the effect of multiple sources of subglacial discharge is simulated by introducing freshwater at freezing temperature from two point sources at the base of an ice block representing the glacier. The buoyant plumes of cold meltwater and subglacial discharge water entrain warm ambient water, rise vertically, and interact within a layer of depth H2 if the distance between the sources x0 is smaller than H2α/0.35, where α is the entrainment constant. The plume water detaches from the glacier face at the interface between the two layers and/or at the free surface, as confirmed by previous numerical studies and field observations. A plume model is used to explain the observed nonmonotonic dependence of submarine melting on the sources’ separation. The distance between the two sources influences the entrainment of warm water in the plumes and consequently the amount of submarine melting and the final location of the meltwater within the water column. Two interacting plumes located very close together are observed to melt approximately half as much as two independent plumes. The inclusion, or parameterization, of the dynamics regulating multiple plumes’ interaction is therefore necessary for a correct estimate of submarine melting. Hence, the distribution and number of sources of subglacial discharge may play an important role in glacial melt rates and fjord stratification and circulation.
    Description: Support to C.C. was given by the NSF Project OCE-1130008 and OCE-1434041. V.M.G. received support from the “Gori” Fellowship.
    Description: 2016-07-01
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Glaciers ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Buoyancy ; Entrainment ; Ocean dynamics ; Small scale processes ; Models and modeling ; Laboratory/physical models
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 327–348, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0112.1.
    Description: Potential vorticity structure in two segments of the North Atlantic’s western boundary current is examined using concurrent, high-resolution measurements of hydrography and velocity from gliders. Spray gliders occupied 40 transects across the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico and 11 transects across the Gulf Stream downstream of Cape Hatteras. Cross-stream distributions of the Ertel potential vorticity and its components are calculated for each transect under the assumptions that all flow is in the direction of measured vertically averaged currents and that the flow is geostrophic. Mean cross-stream distributions of hydrographic properties, potential vorticity, and alongstream velocity are calculated for both the Loop Current and the detached Gulf Stream in both depth and density coordinates. Differences between these mean transects highlight the downstream changes in western boundary current structure. As the current increases its transport downstream, upper-layer potential vorticity is generally reduced because of the combined effects of increased anticyclonic relative vorticity, reduced stratification, and increased cross-stream density gradients. The only exception is within the 20-km-wide cyclonic flank of the Gulf Stream, where intense cyclonic relative vorticity results in more positive potential vorticity than in the Loop Current. Cross-stream gradients of mean potential vorticity satisfy necessary conditions for both barotropic and baroclinic instability within the western boundary current. Instances of very low or negative potential vorticity, which predispose the flow to various overturning instabilities, are observed in individual transects across both the Loop Current and the Gulf Stream.
    Description: Glider operations in the Gulf Stream were supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant OCE-0220769. Glider operations in the Gulf of Mexico were supported by BP. R.E.T. was supported by the Penzance Endowed Fund in Support of Assistant Scientists and the Independent Research and Development Program at WHOI.
    Description: 2016-07-01
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; North Atlantic Ocean ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Boundary currents ; Potential vorticity ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Boundary currents
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 1705-1716, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0221.1.
    Description: A rapid and broadband (1 h, 1 〈 f 〈 400 Hz) increase in pressure and vertical velocity on the deep ocean floor was observed on seven instruments comprising a 20-km array in the northeastern subtropical Pacific. The authors associate the jump with the passage of a cold front and focus on the 4- and 400-Hz spectra. At every station, the time of the jump is consistent with the front coming from the northwest. The apparent rate of progress, 10–20 km h−1 (2.8–5.6 m s−1), agrees with meteorological observations. The acoustic radiation below the front is modeled as arising from a moving half-plane of uncorrelated acoustic dipoles. The half-plane is preceded by a 10-km transition zone, over which the radiator strength increases linearly from zero. With this model, the time derivative of the jump at a station yields a second and independent estimate of the front’s speed, 8.5 km h−1 (2.4 m s−1). For the 4-Hz spectra, the source physics is taken to be Longuet-Higgins radiation. Its strength depends on the quantity , where Fζ is the wave amplitude power spectrum and I the overlap integral. Thus, the 1-h time constant observed in the bottom data implies a similar time constant for the growth of the wave field quantity behind the front. The spectra at 400 Hz have a similar time constant, but the jump occurs 25 min later. The implications of this difference for the source physics are uncertain.
    Description: The OBSANP cruise was funded by the Office of Naval Research under Grants N00014-10-1-0987, N00014-14-1-0324, N00014-10-1-0510, and N00014-10-1-0990.
    Keywords: Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Cold fronts ; Marine boundary layer ; Sea state
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 33 (2016): 839-846, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-15-0221.1.
    Description: During the Shallow Water Acoustic Experiment 2006 (SW06) conducted on the New Jersey continental shelf in the summer of 2006, detailed measurements of the ocean environment were made along a fixed reference track that was parallel to the continental shelf. The time-varying environment induced by nonlinear internal waves (NLIWs) was recorded by an array of moored thermistor chains and by X-band radars from the attending research vessels. Using a mapping technique, the three-dimensional (3D) temperature field for over a month of NLIW events is reconstructed and analyzed to provide a statistical summary of important NLIW parameters, such as the NLIW propagation speed, direction, and amplitude. The results in this paper can be used as a database for studying the NLIW generation, propagation, and fidelity of nonlinear internal wave models.
    Description: This research was supported by the Office of Naval Research Ocean Acoustics Program (322OA) through Grants N00014-10-1-0396 and N00014-11-1-0701.
    Description: 2016-10-18
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Continental shelf/slope ; North America ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; Data processing ; In situ oceanic observations ; Sampling ; Mathematical and statistical techniques ; Statistics
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 29 (2016): 6201-6221, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0694.1.
    Description: Anomalous conditions in the tropical oceans, such as those related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean dipole, have been previously blamed for extended droughts and wet periods in Australia. Yet the extent to which Australian wet and dry spells can be driven by internal atmospheric variability remains unclear. Natural variability experiments are examined to determine whether prolonged extreme wet and dry periods can arise from internal atmospheric and land variability alone. Results reveal that this is indeed the case; however, these dry and wet events are found to be less severe than in simulations incorporating coupled oceanic variability. Overall, ocean feedback processes increase the magnitude of Australian rainfall variability by about 30% and give rise to more spatially coherent rainfall impacts. Over mainland Australia, ocean interactions lead to more frequent extreme events, particularly during the rainy season. Over Tasmania, in contrast, ocean–atmosphere coupling increases mean rainfall throughout the year. While ocean variability makes Australian rainfall anomalies more severe, droughts and wet spells of duration longer than three years are equally likely to occur in both atmospheric- and ocean-driven simulations. Moreover, they are essentially indistinguishable from what one expects from a Gaussian white noise distribution. Internal atmosphere–land-driven megadroughts and megapluvials that last as long as ocean-driven events are also identified in the simulations. This suggests that oceanic variability may be less important than previously assumed for the long-term persistence of Australian rainfall anomalies. This poses a challenge to accurate prediction of long-term dry and wet spells for Australia.
    Description: This study was supported by the Australian Research Council (ARC) under ARC-DP1094784, ARC-DP-150101331, ARC-FL100100214, and funding for C.C.U. from the National Science Foundation under AGS-1602455 and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.
    Description: 2017-02-19
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Drought ; Precipitation ; Physical Meteorology and Climatology ; Climate variability ; Forecasting ; Climate prediction ; Variability
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 551-568, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0047.1.
    Description: There exists a good deal of indirect evidence, from several locations around the world, that there is a substantial eddy field over continental shelves. These eddies appear to have typical swirl velocities of a few centimeters per second and have horizontal scales of perhaps 5–10 km. These eddies are weak compared to typical, wind-driven, alongshore flows but often seem to dominate middepth cross-shelf flows. The idea that motivates the present contribution is that the alongshore wind stress ultimately energizes these eddies by means of baroclinic instabilities, even in cases where obvious intense fronts do not exist. The proposed sequence is that alongshore winds over a stratified ocean cause upwelling or downwelling, and the resulting horizontal density gradients are strong enough to fuel baroclinic instabilities of the requisite energy levels. This idea is explored here by means of a sequence of idealized primitive equation numerical model studies, each driven by a modest, nearly steady, alongshore wind stress applied for about 5–10 days. Different runs vary wind forcing, stratification, bottom slope, bottom friction, and Coriolis parameter. All runs, both upwelling and downwelling, are found to be baroclinically unstable and to have scales compatible with the underlying hypothesis. The model results, combined with physically based scalings, show that eddy kinetic energy generally increases with bottom slope, stratification, wind impulse (time integral of the wind stress), and inverse Coriolis parameter. The dominant length scale of the eddies is found to increase with increasing eddy kinetic energy and to decrease with Coriolis parameter.
    Description: This work was supported by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and by the National Science Foundation, Physical Oceanography section through Grant OCE-1433953.
    Description: 2016-06-09
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Continental shelf/slope ; Variability ; Oceanic variability
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 1309-1321, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0068.1.
    Description: Direct measurements of oceanic turbulent parameters were taken upstream of and across Drake Passage, in the region of the Subantarctic and Polar Fronts. Values of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate ε estimated by microstructure are up to two orders of magnitude lower than previously published estimates in the upper 1000 m. Turbulence levels in Drake Passage are systematically higher than values upstream, regardless of season. The dissipation of thermal variance χ is enhanced at middepth throughout the surveys, with the highest values found in northern Drake Passage, where water mass variability is the most pronounced. Using the density ratio, evidence for double-diffusive instability is presented. Subject to double-diffusive physics, the estimates of diffusivity using the Osborn–Cox method are larger than ensemble statistics based on ε and the buoyancy frequency.
    Description: This work was supported by grants from the U.S. National Science Foundation.
    Description: 2016-10-05
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Southern Ocean ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Diapycnal mixing ; Mixing ; Turbulence ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Fronts ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; Profilers, oceanic
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 439-459, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0086.1.
    Description: The summertime California Current System (CCS) is characterized by energetic mesoscale eddies, whose sea surface temperature (SST) and surface current can significantly modify the wind stress and Ekman pumping. Relative importance of the eddy–wind interactions via SST and surface current in the CCS is examined using a high-resolution (7 km) regional coupled model with a novel coupling approach to isolate the small-scale air–sea coupling by SST and surface current. Results show that when the eddy-induced surface current is allowed to modify the wind stress, the spatially averaged surface eddy kinetic energy (EKE) is reduced by 42%, and this is primarily due to enhanced surface eddy drag and reduced wind energy transfer. In contrast, the eddy-induced SST–wind coupling has no significant impact on the EKE. Furthermore, eddy-induced SST and surface current modify the Ekman pumping via their crosswind SST gradient and surface vorticity gradient, respectively. The resultant magnitudes of the Ekman pumping velocity are comparable, but the implied feedback effects on the eddy statistics are different. The surface current-induced Ekman pumping mainly attenuates the amplitude of cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies, acting to reduce the eddy activity, while the SST-induced Ekman pumping primarily affects the propagation. Time mean–rectified change in SST is determined by the altered offshore temperature advection by the mean and eddy currents, but the magnitude of the mean SST change is greater with the eddy-induced current effect. The demonstrated remarkably strong dynamical response in the CCS system to the eddy-induced current–wind coupling indicates that eddy-induced current should play an important role in the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere system.
    Description: We thank NSF for support under GrantsOCE-0960770,OCE-1419235, andOCE-1419306. HS is grateful for the WHOI internal support from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Awards for Innovative Research and the additional support from the ONR We thank NSF for support under GrantsOCE-0960770,OCE-1419235, andOCE-1419306. HS is grateful for the WHOI internal support from the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Awards for Innovative Research and the additional support from the ONR
    Description: 2016-05-30
    Keywords: Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Ekman pumping ; Models and modeling ; Ocean models ; Regional models
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2016. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 33 (2016): 873-890, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-15-0109.1.
    Description: Direct covariance flux (DCF) measurements taken from floating platforms are contaminated by wave-induced platform motions that need to be removed before computation of the turbulent fluxes. Several correction algorithms have been developed and successfully applied in earlier studies from research vessels and, most recently, by the use of moored buoys. The validation of those correction algorithms has so far been limited to short-duration comparisons against other floating platforms. Although these comparisons show in general a good agreement, there is still a lack of a rigorous validation of the method, required to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the existing motion-correction algorithms. This paper attempts to provide such a validation by a comparison of flux estimates from two DCF systems, one mounted on a moored buoy and one on the Air–Sea Interaction Tower (ASIT) at the Martha’s Vineyard Coastal Observatory, Massachusetts. The ASIT was specifically designed to minimize flow distortion over a wide range of wind directions from the open ocean for flux measurements. The flow measurements from the buoy system are corrected for wave-induced platform motions before computation of the turbulent heat and momentum fluxes. Flux estimates and cospectra of the corrected buoy data are found to be in very good agreement with those obtained from the ASIT. The comparison is also used to optimize the filter constants used in the motion-correction algorithm. The quantitative agreement between the buoy data and the ASIT demonstrates that the DCF method is applicable for turbulence measurements from small moving platforms, such as buoys.
    Description: This work was funded by the National Science Foundation Grant OCE04-24536 as part of the CLIVAR Mode Water Dynamic Experiment (CLIMODE).
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Turbulence ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Boundary layer ; Physical Meteorology and Climatology ; Air-sea interaction ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; Buoy observations ; Quality assurance/control
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 417-437, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0055.1.
    Description: In the stratified ocean, turbulent mixing is primarily attributed to the breaking of internal waves. As such, internal waves provide a link between large-scale forcing and small-scale mixing. The internal wave field north of the Kerguelen Plateau is characterized using 914 high-resolution hydrographic profiles from novel Electromagnetic Autonomous Profiling Explorer (EM-APEX) floats. Altogether, 46 coherent features are identified in the EM-APEX velocity profiles and interpreted in terms of internal wave kinematics. The large number of internal waves analyzed provides a quantitative framework for characterizing spatial variations in the internal wave field and for resolving generation versus propagation dynamics. Internal waves observed near the Kerguelen Plateau have a mean vertical wavelength of 200 m, a mean horizontal wavelength of 15 km, a mean period of 16 h, and a mean horizontal group velocity of 3 cm s−1. The internal wave characteristics are dependent on regional dynamics, suggesting that different generation mechanisms of internal waves dominate in different dynamical zones. The wave fields in the Subantarctic/Subtropical Front and the Polar Front Zone are influenced by the local small-scale topography and flow strength. The eddy-wave field is influenced by the large-scale flow structure, while the internal wave field in the Subantarctic Zone is controlled by atmospheric forcing. More importantly, the local generation of internal waves not only drives large-scale dissipation in the frontal region but also downstream from the plateau. Some internal waves in the frontal region are advected away from the plateau, contributing to mixing and stratification budgets elsewhere.
    Description: A.M. was supported by the joint CSIRO-University of Tasmania Quantitative Marine Science (QMS) program and the 2009 CSIRO Wealth from Ocean Flagship Collaborative Fund. K.L.P.’s salary support was provided by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution bridge support funds. B.M.S. was supported by the Australian Climate Change Science Program.
    Description: 2016-06-07
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Southern Ocean ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Internal waves ; Mixing ; Wave properties ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; In situ oceanic observations ; Profilers, oceanic
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  • 16
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 569-582, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0048.1.
    Description: Continental shelf baroclinic instability energized by fluctuating alongshore winds is treated using idealized primitive equation numerical model experiments. A spatially uniform alongshore wind, sinusoidal in time, alternately drives upwelling and downwelling and so creates highly variable, but slowly increasing, available potential energy. For all of the 30 model runs, conducted with a wide range of parameters (varying Coriolis parameter, initial stratification, bottom friction, forcing period, wind strength, and bottom slope), a baroclinic instability and subsequent eddy field develop. Model results and scalings show that the eddy kinetic energy increases with wind amplitude, forcing period, stratification, and bottom slope. The dominant alongshore length scale of the eddy field is essentially an internal Rossby radius of deformation. The resulting depth-averaged alongshore flow field is dominated by the large-scale, periodic wind forcing, while the cross-shelf flow field is dominated by the eddy variability. The result is that correlation length scales for alongshore flow are far greater than those for cross-shelf velocity. This scale discrepancy is qualitatively consistent with midshelf observations by Kundu and Allen, among others.
    Description: This work was funded by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and by the National Science Foundation, Physical Oceanography section through Grant OCE-1433953.
    Description: 2016-06-09
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Continental shelf/slope ; Variability ; Oceanic variability
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  • 17
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    American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 1277-1284, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-16-0027.1.
    Description: The contemporary Arctic Ocean differs markedly from midlatitude, ice-free, and relatively warm oceans in the context of density-compensating temperature and salinity variations. These variations are invaluable tracers in the midlatitudes, revealing essential fundamental physical processes of the oceans, on scales from millimeters to thousands of kilometers. However, in the cold Arctic Ocean, temperature variations have little effect on density, and a measure of density-compensating variations in temperature and salinity (i.e., spiciness) is not appropriate. In general, temperature is simply a passive tracer, which implies that most of the heat transported in the Arctic Ocean relies entirely on the ocean dynamics determined by the salinity field. It is shown, however, that as the Arctic Ocean warms up, temperature will take on a new role in setting dynamical balances. Under continued warming, there exists the possibility for a regime shift in the mechanisms by which heat is transported in the Arctic Ocean. This may result in a cap on the storage of deep-ocean heat, having profound implications for future predictions of Arctic sea ice.
    Description: Support was provided by the National Science Foundation Division of Polar Programs Award 1350046 and Office of Naval Research Grant Number N00014-12-1-0110.
    Description: 2016-10-05
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Arctic ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Ocean dynamics
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 46 (2016): 1717-1734, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0124.1.
    Description: The contribution of warm-core anticyclones shed by the Irminger Current off West Greenland, known as Irminger rings, to the restratification of the upper layers of the Labrador Sea is investigated in the 1/12° Family of Linked Atlantic Models Experiment (FLAME) model. The model output, covering the 1990–2004 period, shows strong similarities to observations of the Irminger Current as well as ring observations at a mooring located offshore of the eddy formation region in 2007–09. An analysis of fluxes in the model shows that while the majority of heat exchange with the interior indeed occurs at the site of the Irminger Current instability, the contribution of the coherent Irminger rings is modest (18%). Heat is provided to the convective region mainly through noncoherent anomalies and enhanced local mixing by the rings facilitating further exchange between the boundary and interior. The time variability of the eddy kinetic energy and the boundary to interior heat flux in the model are strongly correlated to the density gradient between the dense convective region and the more buoyant boundary current. In FLAME, the density variations of the boundary current are larger than those of the convective region, thereby largely controlling changes in lateral fluxes. Synchronous long-term trends in temperature in the boundary and the interior over the 15-yr simulation suggest that the heat flux relative to the temperature of the interior is largely steady on these time scales.
    Description: The authors were supported in this work by the U.S. National Science Foundation.
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; North Atlantic Ocean ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Anticyclones ; Boundary currents ; Convection ; Eddies ; Fluxes
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Monthly Weather Review 144 (2016): 877-896, doi:10.1175/MWR-D-15-0275.1.
    Description: This paper describes a new model (method) called Satellite-derived North Atlantic Profiles (SNAP) that seeks to provide a high-resolution, near-real-time ocean thermal field to aid tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting. Using about 139 000 observed temperature profiles, a spatially dependent regression model is developed for the North Atlantic Ocean during hurricane season. A new step introduced in this work is that the daily mixed layer depth is derived from the output of a one-dimensional Price–Weller–Pinkel ocean mixed layer model with time-dependent surface forcing. The accuracy of SNAP is assessed by comparison to 19 076 independent Argo profiles from the hurricane seasons of 2011 and 2013. The rms differences of the SNAP-estimated isotherm depths are found to be 10–25 m for upper thermocline isotherms (29°–19°C), 35–55 m for middle isotherms (18°–7°C), and 60–100 m for lower isotherms (6°–4°C). The primary error sources include uncertainty of sea surface height anomaly (SSHA), high-frequency fluctuations of isotherm depths, salinity effects, and the barotropic component of SSHA. These account for roughly 29%, 25%, 19%, and 10% of the estimation error, respectively. The rms differences of TC-related ocean parameters, upper-ocean heat content, and averaged temperature of the upper 100 m, are ~10 kJ cm−2 and ~0.8°C, respectively, over the North Atlantic basin. These errors are typical also of the open ocean underlying the majority of TC tracks. Errors are somewhat larger over regions of greatest mesoscale variability (i.e., the Gulf Stream and the Loop Current within the Gulf of Mexico).
    Description: IFP is supported by Grants NSC 101-2628-M-002-001-MY4 and MOST 103-2111-M-002 -002 -MY3. JFP and SRJ were supported by the U.S. Office of Naval Research under the project “Impact of Typhoons on the North Pacific, ITOP.”
    Description: 2016-06-08
    Keywords: Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Oceanic mixed layer ; Tropical cyclones ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; Satellite observations
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 33 (2016): 1377-1392, doi:10.1175/JTECH-D-15-0242.1.
    Description: The calibration and validation of a novel approach to remotely sense surface winds using land-based high-frequency (HF) radar systems are described. Potentially available on time scales of tens of minutes and spatial scales of 2–3 km for wide swaths of the coastal ocean, HF radar–based surface wind observations would greatly aid coastal ocean planners, researchers, and operational stakeholders by providing detailed real-time estimates and climatologies of coastal winds, as well as enabling higher-quality short-term forecasts of the spatially dependent wind field. Such observations are particularly critical for the developing offshore wind energy community. An autonomous surface vehicle was deployed within the Massachusetts Wind Energy Area, located south of Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts, for one month, collecting wind observations that were used to test models of wind-wave spreading and HF radar energy loss, thereby empirically relating radar-measured power to surface winds. HF radar–based extractions of the remote wind speed had accuracies of 1.4 m s−1 for winds less than 7 m s−1, within the optimal range of the radar frequency used. Accuracies degraded at higher winds due to low signal-to-noise ratios in the returned power and poor resolution of the model. Pairing radar systems with a range of transmit frequencies with adjustments of the extraction model for additional power and environmental factors would resolve many of the errors observed.
    Description: This analysis was supported by the Massachusetts Clean Energy Center. The HF radar data used were obtained during projects supported by the National Science Foundation, the NOAA Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS), and internal funds from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.
    Description: 2016-12-24
    Keywords: Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Wind ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; Algorithms ; In situ oceanic observations ; Radars/Radar observations ; Remote sensing ; Surface observations
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2016. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 29 (2016): 1545-1571, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0509.1.
    Description: Three sediment records of sea surface temperature (SST) are analyzed that originate from distant locations in the North Atlantic, have centennial-to-multicentennial resolution, are based on the same reconstruction method and chronological assumptions, and span the past 15 000 yr. Using recursive least squares techniques, an estimate of the time-dependent North Atlantic SST field over the last 15 kyr is sought that is consistent with both the SST records and a surface ocean circulation model, given estimates of their respective error (co)variances. Under the authors’ assumptions about data and model errors, it is found that the 10°C mixed layer isotherm, which approximately traces the modern Subpolar Front, would have moved by ~15° of latitude southward (northward) in the eastern North Atlantic at the onset (termination) of the Younger Dryas cold interval (YD), a result significant at the level of two standard deviations in the isotherm position. In contrast, meridional movements of the isotherm in the Newfoundland basin are estimated to be small and not significant. Thus, the isotherm would have pivoted twice around a region southeast of the Grand Banks, with a southwest–northeast orientation during the warm intervals of the Bølling–Allerød and the Holocene and a more zonal orientation and southerly position during the cold interval of the YD. This study provides an assessment of the significance of similar previous inferences and illustrates the potential of recursive least squares in paleoceanography.
    Description: OM acknowledges support from the U.S. National Science Foundation. CW acknowledges support from the European Research Council ERC Grant ACCLIMATE 339108.
    Description: 2016-08-19
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; North Atlantic Ocean ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Fronts ; Mathematical and statistical techniques ; Inverse methods ; Kalman filters ; Variability ; Climate variability ; Oceanic variability
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 2006–2024, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0234.1.
    Description: The effects of wind-driven whitecapping on the evolution of the ocean surface boundary layer are examined using an idealized one-dimensional Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes numerical model. Whitecapping is parameterized as a flux of turbulent kinetic energy through the sea surface and through an adjustment of the turbulent length scale. Simulations begin with a two-layer configuration and use a wind that ramps to a steady stress. This study finds that the boundary layer begins to thicken sooner in simulations with whitecapping than without because whitecapping introduces energy to the base of the boundary layer sooner than shear production does. Even in the presence of whitecapping, shear production becomes important for several hours, but then inertial oscillations cause shear production and whitecapping to alternate as the dominant energy sources for mixing. Details of these results are sensitive to initial and forcing conditions, particularly to the turbulent length scale imposed by breaking waves and the transfer velocity of energy from waves to turbulence. After 1–2 days of steady wind, the boundary layer in whitecapping simulations has thickened more than the boundary layer in simulations without whitecapping by about 10%–50%, depending on the forcing and initial conditions.
    Description: We thank Skidmore College for financial and infrastructure support, and Skidmore and the National Science Foundation for funding travel to meetings where early versions of this work were presented. We also thank the National Science Foundation, Oregon State University, Jonathan Nash, and Joe Jurisa for funding and hosting a workshop on River Plume Mixing in October, 2013, where ideas and context for this paper were developed.
    Description: 2016-02-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Mixing ; Turbulence ; Wave breaking ; Wind stress ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Mixed layer
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 8574–8584, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00809.1.
    Description: The subsurface ocean response to anthropogenic climate forcing remains poorly characterized. From the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), a robust response of the lower thermocline is identified, where the warming is considerably weaker in the subtropics than in the tropics and high latitudes. The lower thermocline change is inversely proportional to the thermocline depth in the present climatology. Ocean general circulation model (OGCM) experiments show that sea surface warming is the dominant forcing for the subtropical gyre change in contrast to natural variability for which wind dominates, and the ocean response is insensitive to the spatial pattern of surface warming. An analysis based on a ventilated thermocline model shows that the pattern of the lower thermocline change can be interpreted in terms of the dynamic response to the strengthened stratification and downward heat mixing. Consequently, the subtropical gyres become intensified at the surface but weakened in the lower thermcline, consistent with results from CMIP experiments.
    Description: The work was supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2012CB955600), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41125019, 41206021), and the U.S. National Science Foundation (AGS 1249145, 1305719).
    Description: 2016-05-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Ocean circulation ; Physical Meteorology and Climatology ; Climate change
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 966–987, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0110.1.
    Description: A key remaining challenge in oceanography is the understanding and parameterization of small-scale mixing. Evidence suggests that topographic features play a significant role in enhancing mixing in the Southern Ocean. This study uses 914 high-resolution hydrographic profiles from novel EM-APEX profiling floats to investigate turbulent mixing north of the Kerguelen Plateau, a major topographic feature in the Southern Ocean. A shear–strain finescale parameterization is applied to estimate diapycnal diffusivity in the upper 1600 m of the ocean. The indirect estimates of mixing match direct microstructure profiler observations made simultaneously. It is found that mixing intensities have strong spatial and temporal variability, ranging from O(10−6) to O(10−3) m2 s−1. This study identifies topographic roughness, current speed, and wind speed as the main factors controlling mixing intensity. Additionally, the authors find strong regional variability in mixing dynamics and enhanced mixing in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current frontal region. This enhanced mixing is attributed to dissipating internal waves generated by the interaction of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and the topography of the Kerguelen Plateau. Extending the mixing observations from the Kerguelen region to the entire Southern Ocean, this study infers a large water mass transformation rate of 17 Sverdrups (Sv; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) across the boundary of Antarctic Intermediate Water and Upper Circumpolar Deep Water in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. This work suggests that the contribution of mixing to the Southern Ocean overturning circulation budget is particularly significant in fronts.
    Description: AM was supported by the joint CSIRO–University of Tasmania Quantitative Marine Science (QMS) program and the 2009 CSIRO Wealth from Ocean Flagship Collaborative Fund. BMS was supported by the Australian Climate Change Science Program, jointly funded by the Department of the Environment and CSIRO. KLPs salary support was provided by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution bridge support funds.
    Description: 2015-10-01
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Southern Ocean ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Diapycnal mixing ; Fronts ; Ocean circulation ; Topographic effects ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Mixing
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 1610–1631, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0047.1.
    Description: The use of a measure to diagnose submesoscale isopycnal diffusivity by determining the best match between observations of a tracer and simulations with varying small-scale diffusivities is tested. Specifically, the robustness of a “roughness” measure to discriminate between tracer fields experiencing different submesoscale isopycnal diffusivities and advected by scaled altimetric velocity fields is investigated. This measure is used to compare numerical simulations of the tracer released at a depth of about 1.5 km in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean during the Diapycnal and Isopycnal Mixing Experiment in the Southern Ocean (DIMES) field campaign with observations of the tracer taken on DIMES cruises. The authors find that simulations with an isopycnal diffusivity of ~20 m2 s−1 best match observations in the Pacific sector of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), rising to ~20–50 m2 s−1 through Drake Passage, representing submesoscale processes and any mesoscale processes unresolved by the advecting altimetry fields. The roughness measure is demonstrated to be a statistically robust way to estimate a small-scale diffusivity when measurements are relatively sparse in space and time, although it does not work if there are too few measurements overall. The planning of tracer measurements during a cruise in order to maximize the robustness of the roughness measure is also considered. It is found that the robustness is increased if the spatial resolution of tracer measurements is increased with the time since tracer release.
    Description: We thank the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council and the U.S. National Science Foundation for funding the DIMES project.
    Description: 2015-12-01
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Southern Ocean ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Diffusion ; Physical Meteorology and Climatology ; Isopycnal mixing ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; Tracers ; Models and modeling ; Model comparison ; Tracers
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  • 26
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 6489–6502, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0143.1.
    Description: The global water cycle is predicted to intensify under various greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Here the nature and strength of the expected changes for the ocean in the coming century are assessed by examining the output of several CMIP5 model runs for the periods 1990–2000 and 2090–2100 and comparing them to a dataset built from modern observations. Key elements of the water cycle, such as the atmospheric vapor transport, the evaporation minus precipitation over the ocean, and the surface salinity, show significant changes over the coming century. The intensification of the water cycle leads to increased salinity contrasts in the ocean, both within and between basins. Regional projections for several areas important to large-scale ocean circulation are presented, including the export of atmospheric moisture across the tropical Americas from Atlantic to Pacific Ocean, the freshwater gain of high-latitude deep water formation sites, and the basin averaged evaporation minus precipitation with implications for interbasin mass transports.
    Description: This research was supported by NASA Grant NNX12AF59GS03.
    Description: 2016-02-15
    Keywords: Climate change ; Climate prediction ; Hydrologic cycle ; Salinity ; Water budget ; Water vapor
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 2598–2620, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0249.1.
    Description: Through combining analytical arguments and numerical models, this study investigates the finite-amplitude meanders of shelfbreak fronts characterized by sloping isopycnals outcropping at both the surface and the shelfbreak bottom. The objective is to provide a formula for the meander length scale that can explain observed frontal length scale variability and also be verified with observations. Considering the frontal instability to be a mixture of barotropic and baroclinic instability, the derived along-shelf meander length scale formula is [b1/(1 + a1S1/2)]NH/f, where N is the buoyancy frequency; H is the depth of the front; f is the Coriolis parameter; S is the Burger number measuring the ratio of energy conversion associated with barotropic and baroclinic instability; and a1 and b1 are empirical constants. Initial growth rate of the frontal instability is formulated as [b2(1 + a1S1/2)/(1 + a2αS1/2)]NH/L, where α is the bottom slope at the foot of the front, and a2 and b2 are empirical constants. The formulas are verified using numerical sensitivity simulations, and fitting of the simulated and formulated results gives a1 = 2.69, b1 = 14.65, a2 = 5.1 × 103, and b2 = 6.2 × 10−2. The numerical simulations also show development of fast-growing frontal symmetric instability when the minimum initial potential vorticity is negative. Although frontal symmetric instability leads to faster development of barotropic and baroclinic instability at later times, it does not significantly influence the meander length scale. The derived meander length scale provides a framework for future studies of the influences of external forces on shelfbreak frontal circulation and cross-frontal exchange.
    Description: WGZ and GGG were supported by the National Science Foundation through Grant OCE-1129125.
    Description: 2016-04-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Instability ; Ocean circulation ; Topographic effects ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Fronts ; Models and modeling ; Numerical analysis/modeling
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015):1189–1204, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0122.1.
    Description: Winter outcropping of the Eighteen Degree Water (EDW) and its subsequent dispersion are studied using a ° eddy-resolving simulation of the Family of Linked Atlantic Modeling Experiments (FLAME). Outcropped EDW columns in the model simulations are detected in each winter from 1990 to 1999, and particles are deployed in the center of each outcropped EDW column. Subsequently, the trajectories of these particles are calculated for the following 5 yr. The particles slowly spread away from the outcropping region into the nonoutcropping/subducted EDW region south of ~30°N and eventually to the non-EDW region in the greater subtropical gyre. Approximately 30% of the particles are found in non-EDW waters 1 yr after deployment; after 5 yr, only 25% of the particles are found within EDW. The reoutcropping time is defined as the number of years between when a particle is originally deployed in an outcropping EDW column and when that particle is next found in an outcropping EDW column. Of the particles, 66% are found to reoutcrop as EDW in 1 yr, and less than 5% of the particles outcrop in each of the subsequent 4 yr. While the individual trajectories exhibit significant eddy-like motions, the time scale of reoutcropping is primarily set by the mean circulation. The dominance of reoutcropping in 1 yr suggests that EDW outcropping contributes considerably to the persistence of surface temperature anomalies from one winter to the next, that is, the reemergence of winter sea surface temperature anomalies.
    Description: We gratefully acknowledge the support from the NSF OCE Physical Oceanography program (NSF OCE-0961090 to Y-OK and J-JP; NSF OCE-0960776 to MSL and SFG; and NSF OCE-1242989 to Y-OK).
    Description: 2015-10-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Ocean circulation ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Water masses
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 1822–1842, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0147.1.
    Description: Influences of time-dependent precipitation on water mass transformation and heat budgets in an idealized marginal sea are examined using theoretical and numerical models. The equations proposed by Spall in 2012 are extended to cases with time-dependent precipitation whose form is either a step function or a sinusoidal function. The theory predicts the differences in temperature and salinity between the convective water and the boundary current as well as the magnitudes of heat fluxes into the marginal sea and across the sea surface. Moreover, the theory reveals that there are three inherent time scales: relaxation time scales for temperature and salinity and a precipitation time scale. The relaxation time scales are determined by a steady solution of the theoretical model with steady precipitation. The relaxation time scale for temperature is always smaller than that for salinity as a result of not only the difference in the form of fluxes at the surface but also the variation in the eddy transport from the boundary current. These three time scales and the precipitation amplitude determine the strength of the ocean response to changes in precipitation and the phase relation between precipitation, changes in salinity and temperature, and changes in heat fluxes. It is demonstrated that the theoretical predictions agree qualitatively well with results from the eddy-resolving numerical model. This demonstrates the fundamental role of mesoscale eddies in the ocean response to time-dependent forcing and provides a framework with which to assess the extent to which observed variability in marginal sea convection and water mass transformation are consistent with an external forcing by variations in precipitation.
    Description: This work was initiated at the 2013 WHOI Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Summer Program, which was supported by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Naval Research. This work was also supported by Grant-in-Aid for Research Fellow (25·8466) of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports and Technology (MEXT), Japan, the Program for Leading Graduate Schools, MEXT, Japan (YY), and by the National Science Foundation Grant OCE-1232389 (MAS).
    Description: 2016-01-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Boundary currents ; Deep convection ; Eddies ; Ocean dynamics ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Precipitation
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 2773–2789, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-15-0031.1.
    Description: Tidal oscillatory salt transport, induced by the correlation between tidal variations in salinity and velocity, is an important term for the subtidal salt balance under the commonly used Eulerian method of salt transport decomposition. In this paper, its mechanisms in a partially stratified estuary are investigated with a numerical model of the Hudson estuary. During neap tides, when the estuary is strongly stratified, the tidal oscillatory salt transport is mainly due to the hydraulic response of the halocline to the longitudinal variation of topography. This mechanism does not involve vertical mixing, so it should not be regarded as oscillatory shear dispersion, but instead it should be regarded as advective transport of salt, which results from the vertical distortion of exchange flow obtained in the Eulerian decomposition by vertical fluctuations of the halocline. During spring tides, the estuary is weakly stratified, and vertical mixing plays a significant role in the tidal variation of salinity. In the spring tide regime, the tidal oscillatory salt transport is mainly due to oscillatory shear dispersion. In addition, the transient lateral circulation near large channel curvature causes the transverse tilt of the halocline. This mechanism has little effect on the cross-sectionally integrated tidal oscillatory salt transport, but it results in an apparent left–right cross-channel asymmetry of tidal oscillatory salt transport. With the isohaline framework, tidal oscillatory salt transport can be regarded as a part of the net estuarine salt transport, and the Lagrangian advective mechanism and dispersive mechanism can be distinguished.
    Description: Tao Wang was supported by the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research (Grant SKLEC-KF201509) and Chinese Scholarship Council. Geyer was supported by by NSF Grant OCE 0926427. Wensheng Jiang was supported by NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers (Grant U1406401).
    Description: 2016-05-01
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; Estuaries ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Baroclinic flows ; Dispersion ; Shear structure/flows ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Diapycnal mixing ; Models and modeling ; Regional models
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 1356–1375, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-13-0259.1.
    Description: Eddy–mean flow interactions along the Kuroshio Extension (KE) jet are investigated using a vorticity budget of a high-resolution ocean model simulation, averaged over a 13-yr period. The simulation explicitly resolves mesoscale eddies in the KE and is forced with air–sea fluxes representing the years 1995–2007. A mean-eddy decomposition in a jet-following coordinate system removes the variability of the jet path from the eddy components of velocity; thus, eddy kinetic energy in the jet reference frame is substantially lower than in geographic coordinates and exhibits a cross-jet asymmetry that is consistent with the baroclinic instability criterion of the long-term mean field. The vorticity budget is computed in both geographic (i.e., Eulerian) and jet reference frames; the jet frame budget reveals several patterns of eddy forcing that are largely attributed to varicose modes of variability. Eddies tend to diffuse the relative vorticity minima/maxima that flank the jet, removing momentum from the fast-moving jet core and reinforcing the quasi-permanent meridional meanders in the mean jet. A pattern associated with the vertical stretching of relative vorticity in eddies indicates a deceleration (acceleration) of the jet coincident with northward (southward) quasi-permanent meanders. Eddy relative vorticity advection outside of the eastward jet core is balanced mostly by vertical stretching of the mean flow, which through baroclinic adjustment helps to drive the flanking recirculation gyres. The jet frame vorticity budget presents a well-defined picture of eddy activity, illustrating along-jet variations in eddy–mean flow interaction that may have implications for the jet’s dynamics and cross-frontal tracer fluxes.
    Description: A. S. Delman (ASD) and J. L. McClean (JLM) were supported by NSF Grant OCE-0850463 and Office of Science (BER), U.S. Department of Energy, Grant DE-FG02-05ER64119. ASD and J. Sprintall were also supported by a NASA Earth and Space Science Fellowship (NESSF), Grant NNX13AM93H. JLM was also supported by U.S. DOE Office of Science grant entitled “Ultra-High Resolution Global Climate Simulation” via a Los Alamos National Laboratory subcontract. S. R. Jayne was supported by NSF Grant OCE-0849808. Computational resources for the model run were provided by NSF Resource Grants TG-OCE110013 and TG-OCE130010.
    Description: 2015-11-01
    Keywords: Geographic location/entity ; North Pacific Ocean ; Circulation/ Dynamics ; Forcing ; Instability ; Mesoscale processes ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Jets ; Models and modeling ; General circulation models
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 1735–1756, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0238.1.
    Description: The Lofoten basin of the Nordic Seas is recognized as a crucial component of the meridional overturning circulation in the North Atlantic because of the large horizontal extent of Atlantic Water and winter surface buoyancy loss. In this study, hydrographic and current measurements collected from a mooring deployed in the Lofoten basin from July 2010 to September 2012 are used to describe water mass transformation and the mesoscale eddy field. Winter mixed layer depths (MLDs) are observed to reach approximately 400 m, with larger MLDs and denser properties resulting from the colder 2010 winter. A heat budget of the upper water column requires lateral input, which balances the net annual heat loss of ~80 W m−2. The lateral flux is a result of mesoscale eddies, which dominate the velocity variability. Eddy velocities are enhanced in the upper 1000 m, with a barotropic component that reaches the bottom. Detailed examination of two eddies, from April and August 2012, highlights the variability of the eddy field and eddy properties. Temperature and salinity properties of the April eddy suggest that it originated from the slope current but was ventilated by surface fluxes. The properties within the eddy were similar to those of the mode water, indicating that convection within the eddies may make an important contribution to water mass transformation. A rough estimate of eddy flux per unit boundary current length suggests that fluxes in the Lofoten basin are larger than in the Labrador Sea because of the enhanced boundary current–interior density difference.
    Description: The work was supported by NSF OCE 0850416.
    Description: 2015-12-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Boundary currents ; Eddies ; Fluxes ; Mesoscale processes ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Thermohaline circulation
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 4653–4687, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00326.1.
    Description: Downscaled climate model projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were used to force a dynamic vegetation agricultural model (Agro-IBIS) and simulate yield responses to historical climate and two future emissions scenarios for maize in the U.S. Midwest and wheat in southeastern Australia. In addition to mean changes in yield, the frequency of high- and low-yield years was related to changing local hydroclimatic conditions. Particular emphasis was on the seasonal cycle of climatic variables during extreme-yield years and links to crop growth. While historically high (low) yields in Iowa tend to occur during years with anomalous wet (dry) growing season, this is exacerbated in the future. By the end of the twenty-first century, the multimodel mean (MMM) of growing season temperatures in Iowa is projected to increase by more than 5°C, and maize yield is projected to decrease by 18%. For southeastern Australia, the frequency of low-yield years rises dramatically in the twenty-first century because of significant projected drying during the growing season. By the late twenty-first century, MMM growing season precipitation in southeastern Australia is projected to decrease by 15%, temperatures are projected to increase by 2.8°–4.5°C, and wheat yields are projected to decline by 70%. Results highlight the sensitivity of yield projections to the nature of hydroclimatic changes. Where future changes are uncertain, the sign of the yield change simulated by Agro-IBIS is uncertain as well. In contrast, broad agreement in projected drying over southern Australia across models is reflected in consistent yield decreases for the twenty-first century. Climatic changes of the order projected can be expected to pose serious challenges for continued staple grain production in some current centers of production, especially in marginal areas.
    Description: This work was initiated at the Dissertations Initiative for the Advancement of Climate Change Research (DISCCRS) V Symposium, supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation through collaborative Grants SES-0932916 and SES-0931402. CCU was supported by a University of New South Wales Vice-Chancellor Fellowship and the Penzance Endowed Fund and John P. Chase Memorial Endowed Fund at WHOI. TET was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Award DE-EE0004397. NC was funded by NSF Grant EAR-1204774. We are indebted to the FORMAS-funded Land Use Today and Tomorrow (LUsTT) project (Grant 211-2009-1682) for financial support.
    Keywords: Australia ; North America ; Climate change ; Climate models ; Climate variability ; Agriculture
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 2381–2406, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0086.1.
    Description: While near-inertial waves are known to be generated by atmospheric storms, recent observations in the Kuroshio Front find intense near-inertial internal-wave shear along sloping isopycnals, even during calm weather. Recent literature suggests that spontaneous generation of near-inertial waves by frontal instabilities could represent a major sink for the subinertial quasigeostrophic circulation. An unforced three-dimensional 1-km-resolution model, initialized with the observed cross-Kuroshio structure, is used to explore this mechanism. After several weeks, the model exhibits growth of 10–100-km-scale frontal meanders, accompanied by O(10) mW m−2 spontaneous generation of near-inertial waves associated with readjustment of submesoscale fronts forced out of balance by mesoscale confluent flows. These waves have properties resembling those in the observations. However, they are reabsorbed into the model Kuroshio Front with no more than 15% dissipating or radiating away. Thus, spontaneous generation of near-inertial waves represents a redistribution of quasigeostrophic energy rather than a significant sink.
    Description: “The Study of Kuroshio Ecosystem Dynamics for Sustainable Fisheries (SKED)” supported by MEXT, MIT-Hayashi Seed Fund, ONR (Awards N000140910196 and N000141210101), NSF (Award OCE 0928617, 0928138) for support.
    Description: 2016-03-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Frontogenesis/frontolysis ; Fronts ; Internal waves ; Turbulence ; Upwelling/downwelling ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Jets
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 2497–2521, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0128.1.
    Description: Oceanic density overturns are commonly used to parameterize the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy. This method assumes a linear scaling between the Thorpe length scale LT and the Ozmidov length scale LO. Historic evidence supporting LT ~ LO has been shown for relatively weak shear-driven turbulence of the thermocline; however, little support for the method exists in regions of turbulence driven by the convective collapse of topographically influenced overturns that are large by open-ocean standards. This study presents a direct comparison of LT and LO, using vertical profiles of temperature and microstructure shear collected in the Luzon Strait—a site characterized by topographically influenced overturns up to O(100) m in scale. The comparison is also done for open-ocean sites in the Brazil basin and North Atlantic where overturns are generally smaller and due to different processes. A key result is that LT/LO increases with overturn size in a fashion similar to that observed in numerical studies of Kelvin–Helmholtz (K–H) instabilities for all sites but is most clear in data from the Luzon Strait. Resultant bias in parameterized dissipation is mitigated by ensemble averaging; however, a positive bias appears when instantaneous observations are depth and time integrated. For a series of profiles taken during a spring tidal period in the Luzon Strait, the integrated value is nearly an order of magnitude larger than that based on the microstructure observations. Physical arguments supporting LT ~ LO are revisited, and conceptual regimes explaining the relationship between LT/LO and a nondimensional overturn size are proposed. In a companion paper, Scotti obtains similar conclusions from energetics arguments and simulations.
    Description: B.D.M. and S.K.V. gratefully acknowledge the support of the Office of Naval Research under Grants N00014-12-1-0279, N00014-12-1-0282, and N00014-12-1-0938 (Program Manager: Dr. Terri Paluszkiewicz). S.K.V. also acknowledges support of the National Science Foundation under Grant OCE-1151838. L.S.L. acknowledges support for BBTRE by the National Science Foundation by Contract OCE94-15589 and NATRE and IWISE by the Office of Naval Research by Contracts N00014-92-1323 and N00014-10-10315. J.N.M. was supported through Grant 1256620 from the National Science Foundation and the Office of Naval Research (IWISE Project).
    Description: 2016-04-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Diapycnal mixing ; Small scale processes ; Turbulence ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Mixing ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; Profilers, oceanic ; Models and modeling ; Parameterization
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 45 (2015): 104–132, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-14-0032.1.
    Description: Three mechanisms for self-induced Ekman pumping in the interiors of mesoscale ocean eddies are investigated. The first arises from the surface stress that occurs because of differences between surface wind and ocean velocities, resulting in Ekman upwelling and downwelling in the cores of anticyclones and cyclones, respectively. The second mechanism arises from the interaction of the surface stress with the surface current vorticity gradient, resulting in dipoles of Ekman upwelling and downwelling. The third mechanism arises from eddy-induced spatial variability of sea surface temperature (SST), which generates a curl of the stress and therefore Ekman pumping in regions of crosswind SST gradients. The spatial structures and relative magnitudes of the three contributions to eddy-induced Ekman pumping are investigated by collocating satellite-based measurements of SST, geostrophic velocity, and surface winds to the interiors of eddies identified from their sea surface height signatures. On average, eddy-induced Ekman pumping velocities approach O(10) cm day−1. SST-induced Ekman pumping is usually secondary to the two current-induced mechanisms for Ekman pumping. Notable exceptions are the midlatitude extensions of western boundary currents and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, where SST gradients are strong and all three mechanisms for eddy-induced Ekman pumping are comparable in magnitude. Because the polarity of current-induced curl of the surface stress opposes that of the eddy, the associated Ekman pumping attenuates the eddies. The decay time scale of this attenuation is proportional to the vertical scale of the eddy and inversely proportional to the wind speed. For typical values of these parameters, the decay time scale is about 1.3 yr.
    Description: This work was funded by NASA Grants NNX08AI80G, NNX08AR37G, NNX13AD78G, NNX10AE91G, NNX13AE47G, and NNX10AO98G.
    Description: 2015-07-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Eddies ; Ekman pumping/transport ; Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena ; Eddies ; Ekman pumping ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; Satellite observations
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  • 37
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    Oecologia 98 (1994), S. 429-435 
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Climate change ; Carbon dioxide ; Altitude ; Photosynthesis ; Water loss
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Ecosystem net CO2 uptake, evapotranspiration (ET) and night-time CO2 efflux were measured in an alpine grassland dominated by Carex curvula, treated with doubled ambient partial pressure of CO2 via open-top chambers. One quarter of the plots were treated with mineral nutrients to simulate the effect of lowland nitrogen deposition rates. Depending upon fertilizer supply, ecosystem net CO2 uptake per ground area in full sunlight (NCEmax) was 41–81% higher in open-top chambers supplied with doubled ambient partial pressure (p a) of CO2 than in plots receiving ambient CO2. Short-term reversals of the CO2 level suggest that the extent of downward adjustment of canopy photosynthesis under elevated CO2 was 30–40%. ET tended to decline, while water use efficiency (WUE), expressed as the NCEmax:ET ratio, increased more than twofold under elevated CO2. Night-time ecosystem CO2 efflux did not respond to changes in CO2 p a. NCEmax and night-time CO2 efflux were more responsive to mineral fertilizer than the doubling of CO2. This suggests that in these alpine plant communities, atmospheric nutrient input may induce equal or greater effects on gas exchange than increased CO2.
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  • 38
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    Environmental management 18 (1994), S. 73-92 
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Keywords: Lakes ; Water Quality ; Dissolved oxygen ; Model ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A deterministic, one-dimensional, unsteady numerical model has been developed, tested, and applied to simulate mean daily dissolved oxygen (DO) characteristics in 27 lake classes in the state of Minnesota. Reaeration and photosynthesis are the oxygen sources, while respiration, sedimentary, and biochemical water column oxygen demand are the sinks of oxygen in the model. The lake classes are differentiated by surface area (A s), maximum depth (H max), and trophic status expressed as Secchi depth (Z s). Because lake stratification is most important to lake oxygen dynamics, simulated DO characteristics are plotted in terms of a stratification parameterA s/H max 0.25 and Secchi depthZ s. Simulations provide DO profiles on a daily time scale. Specific DO characteristics of ecological and environmental interest are epilimnetic DO, hypolimnetic DO, DO gradient from surface to bottom, and DO minima and maxima. Specific results are as follows: Simulated mean daily and weekly DO values in the epilimnion of all lakes for both past and future climate scenarios are near saturation over the summer season. Hypolimnetic DO values depend strongly on lake morphometry, trophic status, and time throughout the summer season. Future climate conditions are specified as the historical records from 1955 to 1979, adjusted (monthly) by the 2 × CO2 GISS model output to account for doubling of atmospheric CO2. With this climate change, weekly averaged epilimnetic DO is projected to drop by less than 2 mg/liter, and will remain above 7 mg/liter throughout the open water season. The hypolimnetic DO reductions after climate change are on the order of 2–8 mg/liter. Periods of anoxia are longer by as much as 80 days. Those changes would alter water quality dynamics in lakes and have a profound effect on lake ecosystems including indigenous fishes. The results presented are useful for evaluating environmental management options.
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  • 39
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    Environmental management 18 (1994), S. 489-500 
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Keywords: Greenhouse gases ; Climate change ; Indicators ; Research ; Ecosystems ; Decisions ; Interdisciplinary
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Large-scale environmental research efforts are conducted under frameworks that provide a common basis for evaluating research in many diverse fields. Such frameworks should be subjected to critical review to determine if they meet crucial expectations. In the case of the US Global Change Research Program, we perceive that most research follows a framework that we define as the predictive model framework. We believe this framework is insufficient for resolving the unprecedented predicaments posed by global change. We recommend a complementary framework, the system response framework, which directs research toward useful indicators of change rather than precise predictions. We further argue that, even if research is complementary and effective under the two frameworks, conclusive results prior to decisions should not be expected. The burden of proof must itself be a continuing topic of open discourse and inquiry.
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  • 40
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    Vegetation history and archaeobotany 3 (1994), S. 65-88 
    ISSN: 1617-6278
    Keywords: Climate change ; Holocene ; Palynology ; Europe
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Archaeology , Biology
    Notes: Abstract On the basis of distribution maps showing the first pollen occurrences in the Holocene of the well-known climate indicators Hedera, Ilex and Viscum as well as data for Corylus, a series of maps have been prepared that show summer and winter isotherms at various time intervals during the Holocene. From these maps climate curves for Amsterdam, the Netherlands have been set out. These were compared with curves for the Eemian at the same site. In both of these warm periods there is evidence for increased seasonality in the early phases which were relatively continental. Changes in insolation could account for such differences. Summer optima occurred earlier than winter optima. Changes in land-sea distribution are important, especially with regard to the patterns in winter climate. During the latter half of the Eemian, the climate was distinctly more oceanic than in the Holocene. Early in the Holocene, an influx of warm ocean water resulted in higher winter temperatures in the Gulf of Biscay, the Irish Sea, and areas east of Skagerrak-Kattegat. Temperature decline after the climatic optimum was greatest in the north, i.e. at 60°N, where a depression in the order of 2°C in summer and 2–3°C in winter occurred. Temperature decline was less farther south, i.e. at ca. 50°N, where a distinct west-east gradient in temperature change can be observed.
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  • 41
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    Vegetation history and archaeobotany 3 (1994), S. 245-251 
    ISSN: 1617-6278
    Keywords: Palynology ; Climate change ; historical period ; Etang de Berre, S.E. France
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Archaeology , Biology
    Notes: Abstract A pollen profile from Marais du Sagnas at the northern edge of the Etang de Berre lagoon, west of Marseille, is compared and correlated with a profile (C10) from the southern margin of the lagoon. This new profile extends the pollen record for the area to recent times. The palaeoecological data now available indicate distinct phases of marine influence in the lagoon from about 900 A.D. (non-calibrated) to the 16/17 century. These correspond to historically known drier periods during which it appears that reduced freshwater input facilitated increased influx of saline water.
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  • 42
    ISSN: 1573-5036
    Keywords: Climate change ; elevated carbon dioxide ; growth ; Laccaria laccata ; mycorrhization ; oak ; Quercus robur
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Notes: Abstract Pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) was germinated and grown at ambient CO2 level and 650 ppmv CO2 in the presence and absence of the ectomycorrhizal fungus Laccaria laccata for a total of 6 month under nutrient non-limiting conditions. Mycorrhization and elevated atmospheric CO2 each supported the growth of the trees. Stem height, stem diameter, and dry matter accumulation of pedunculate oak were increased by mycorrhization. Elevated atmospheric CO2 enhanced stem height, stem diameter, fresh weight and dry weight, as well as lateral root formation of the trees. In combination, mycorrhization and elevated atmospheric CO2 had a more than additive, positive effect on tree height and biomass accumulation, and further improved lateral root formation of the trees. From these findings it is suggested that the efficiency of the roots in supporting the growth of the shoot is increased in mycorrhized oak trees at elevated atmospheric CO2.
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  • 43
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    Cellular and molecular life sciences 49 (1993), S. 969-979 
    ISSN: 1420-9071
    Keywords: Climate change ; mortality ; heat stress ; vector-borne disease
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Medicine
    Notes: Abstract The objective of this study is to discuss the potential impact of a global warming on various aspects of human health. Changes in heat-related mortality are estimated for four countries: the United States, Canada, the People's Republic of China and Egypt. In addition, the potential confounding impact of increased air pollution is considered. Finally, a framework to analyze two vector-borne diseases, onchocerciasis and malaria, which may spread if temperatures increase, is discussed. Our findings suggest that heat-related mortality is estimated to rise significantly in all four countries if the earth warms, with the greatest impacts in China and Egypt. The most sensitive areas are those with intense but irregular heat waves. In the United States, air pollution does not appear to impact daily mortality significantly when severe weather is present, although it seems to have a slight influence when weather conditions are not stressful.
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  • 44
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: Climate change ; floods ; rockfall ; debris flows ; sedimentation ; glaciers ; North America
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract Alpine glacier retreat resulting from global warming since the close of the Little Ice Age in the 19th and 20th centuries has increased the risk and incidence of some geologic and hydrologic hazards in mountainous alpine regions of North America. Abundant loose debris in recently deglaciated areas at the toe of alpine glaciers provides a ready source of sediment during rainstorms or outburst floods. This sediment can cause debris flows and sedimentation problems in downstream areas. Moraines built during the Little Ice Age can trap and store large volumes of water. These natural dams have no controlled outlets and can fail without warning. Many glacier-dammed lakes have grown in size, while ice dams have shrunk, resulting in greater risks of ice-dam failure. The retreat and thinning of glacier ice has left oversteepened, unstable valley walls and has led to increased incidence of rock and debris avalanches.
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  • 45
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    Pure and applied geophysics 140 (1993), S. 655-666 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Climate change ; ground temperature ; earth's heat flow
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract High quality temperature measurements have been made to depths of 30 to 220 m at 42 sites in 62 observational hydrogeological wells in Alberta. The temperature profiles commonly show near-surface inversions with a minimum temperature at depths of 30 to 50 m. Thermal modelling suggests a surface temperature history with warming reaching 2°C over the past 30 to 60 years. Recent climate warming evident from the analysis of the air temperature data in the region seems to provide at least a partial explanation of the increased ground temperatures. A sudden increase of the surface ground temperature caused by land clearing may be the other explanation, although modelling of such a sudden increase can only explain the observed temperature-depth data if the onset of such warming is 20–30 years old, which is in disagreement with the history of land development in the studied area. The effect of near-surface inversions of the temperature profiles also has been observed in the forested areas. The above support the climate based effect. The superposition of the climatic effect and man-made activity effect upon the ground warming is a very complicated process calling for considerably more research.
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  • 46
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Aphid ; Arctic ; Climate change ; Life-cycle ; Thermal budget
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract A manipulation experiment was carried out on a field population of the aphid Acyrthosiphon svalbardicum near Ny Ålesund, on the high arctic island of Spitsbergen, using cloches to raise temperature. An average rise in temperature of 2.8 deg. C over the summer season markedly advanced the phenology of both the host plant Dryas octopetala and the aphid. Advanced aphid phenology, with concomitant increases in reproductive output and survival, and successful completion of the life-cycle led to an eleven-fold increase in the number of overwintering eggs. Thermal budget requirements in day degrees above 0°C were calculated for key life-cycle stages of the aphid. Temperature data from Ny Ålesund over the past 23 years were used to calculate thermal budgets for the field site over the same period and these were compared with the requirements of the aphid. Each estimated thermal budget was then adjusted to simulate the effect of a +2, +4, and −2deg. C change in average temperature on aphid performance. This retrospective analysis (i) confirms that the life-cycle of A. svalbardicum is well suited to exploit higher summer temperatures, (ii) indicates that the annual success of local populations are sensitive to small changes in temperature and (iii) suggests that the aphid is living at the limits of its thermal range at Ny Ålesund based on its summer thermal budget requirements.
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  • 47
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Zeiraphera diniana ; Population cycle ; Climate change ; Weather impact
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract The larch bud-moth cycle has been observed in the sub-alpine larch-cembran pine forests 16 times since 1850. Infestation is easily recognized by the characteristic red-brown discoloration of the larch crowns due to the wasteful feeding of the bud moth larvae. The heaviest defoliation recurs at intervals of 8.47±0.27 (SE) years, and the larval density per kilogram of larch branches varies more than 10000-fold over four or five generations. The basic regulatory mechanism for this cycle is the induced change in food quality for the two or more subsequent larval generations. Defoliation functions as a negative feedback mechanism acting on larval density. In 1989 local discoloration in the Upper Engadine valley was observed in the usual first focus. In 1990 and 1991, however, instead of the expected widespread defoliation damage, larval densities decreased drastically. Based on extensive field data collected from 1961 to 1991 on the development and the survival of the bud moth (Zeiraphera diniana Gn.) and the phenology of the host, Larix decidua L., this paper shows the effect of weather on survival in the egg stage and on the coincidence of larval hatching with the sprouting of the larch. It is shown that the winter and spring weather conditions in 1989–1991 were conducive to unusually high egg mortality. Since these conditions occurred in three successive generations, population growth was effectively reduced and the cycle collapsed prematurely. Thus the rather persistent cyclicity of the larch-larch bud-moth system was disturbed by weather conditions with a very low probability of occurrence, but due to the inherent high resilience of the system, the next population peak with visible defoliation is expected to occur 1996/1997, provided that the weather conditions return to the climatic standard.
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  • 48
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Arctic-Alpine ; Climate change ; N and P mineralization ; Nutrient immobilization ; Soils
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Seasonal net nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) mineralization was investigated at Abisko, Swedish Lapland in soils of a subarctic heath and in soils of a colder (by about 4° C), high altitude fellfield by (a) using in situ soil incubation in soils which had been shaded or subjected to two levels of increased temperature, combined with (b) reciprocal transplantation of soils between the two sites. Proportionally large and significant net seasonal mineralization of N, in contrast to non-significant P mineralization, was found in untransplanted and transplanted fellfield soil. In contrast, P was mineralized in proportionally large amounts, in contrast to low N mineralization, in the transplanted and untransplanted heath soil. The differences indicate that P was strongly immobilized in relation to N at the fellfield and that N was more strongly immobilized than P in the heath soil. The immobilization in both soils remained high even after a temperature change of 4–5° C experienced by transplanted soils. Air temperature increases of up to 4–5° C in greenhouses resulted in a soil temperature increase of 1–2° C and did not cause any extra increase of net N and P mineralization. The results suggest that soil temperature increases of up to 2° C, which are likely to occur by the end of the next century as an effect of a predicted 4–5° C rise in air temperature, have only small effects on net mineralization in at least two characteristic tundra soils. These effects are probably smaller than the natural fluctuation of plant available nutrients from site to site, even within the same plant community. A further soil temperature increase of up to 4–5° C may enhance decomposition and gross mineralization, but the rate of net mineralization, and hence the change of nutrient availability to the plants, depends on the extent of microbial immobilization of the extra nutrients released.
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  • 49
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Arctic physiological ecology ; Carbon isotope discrimination ; Climate change ; Water-use efficiency ; Polar semi-desert
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Integrative ecophysiological and vegetative responses of Dryas octopetala were measured in response to field perturbations of temperature, precipitation and their interactions in a polar semi-desert in Svalbard, Norway (79°N, 12°E). Leaf carbon isotope discrimination (Δ), total leaf nitrogen concentration and leaf development were determined for photosynthetic leaves collected during the last week of August 1991, after one season of manipulations. Individual leaf weight and the total mass of leaf tissue were significantly lower when water was added, irrespective of temperature regime. Leaf carbon isotope discrimination and estimated long-term c i/c avalues (the ratio of CO2 concentration in leaf intercellular spaces to that in the atmosphere) were significantly higher under all three field manipulation treatments, and Δ was significantly reduced when Dryas was grown under drought conditions in a related greenhouse study. Nitrogen concentrations of plants from the field experiment were significantly lower under warmed conditions regardless of water regime. Our results indicate that changes in environmental conditions in high arctic settings will result in alterations of Dryas leaf gas exchange, as expressed by increases in carbon isotope discrimination, which may be accompanied by shifts in leaf nitrogen content and leaf biomass.
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  • 50
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    Vegetation history and archaeobotany 2 (1993), S. 145-156 
    ISSN: 1617-6278
    Keywords: Tree-line ; Holocene ; Anthropogenic impact ; Climate change ; Alps
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Archaeology , Biology
    Notes: Abstract Palaeoecological investigations of a small mire in Ötztal, Tyrol, Austria, situated about 50 m above the potential tree-line, indicates that human impact on the landscape started with burning of heath at approximately 5300 B.P. At about 4800 B.P. a weak increase in important apophytes may reflect the local presence of domestic animals. Between 4000 and 3500 B.P. a clear decline in pastoral activity occurred. From 3000 B.P. a strong increase in the representation of apophytes suggests local summer settlement, while in the interval 2600–2200 B.P. anthropogenic activity declined. After 2150 B.P. there was a marked increase in summer farm activity. Fresh information is presented on tree-line fluctuations during the Holocene: Pinus cembra forest ascended above the present potential tree-line by more than 50–100 m between 9000–8000 B.P., 6000–5500 B.P., and 3800–3000 B.P. A Betula maximum between 7000 and 5500 B.P. is probably due to succession in nearby avalanche tracks, as well as to a higher tree-line. Low humification and low loss-on-ignition values around 6000 B.P. may reflect the Frosnitz stadial (6900–6000 B.P.). The Rootmoos I stadial (5400 B.P.) and probably the early Sub-Atlantic stadial maximum (3000–2300) are also reflected in the physical properties of the peat profile.
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  • 51
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    Plant ecology 104-105 (1993), S. 295-305 
    ISSN: 1573-5052
    Keywords: Biogeochemistry ; Biomass ; Carbon cycle ; Climate change ; Fertilization ; Global warming ; Soil organic matter ; Vegetation distribution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Despite 20 years of intensive effort to understand the global carbon cycle, the budget for carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is unbalanced. To explain why atmospheric CO2 is not increasing as rapidly as it should be, various workers have suggested that land vegetation acts as a sink for carbon dioxide. Here, I examine various possibilities and find that the evidence for a sink of sufficient magnitude on land is poor. Moreover, it is unlikely that the land vegetation will act as a sink in the postulated warmer global climates of the future. In response to rapid human population growth, destruction of natural ecosystems in the tropics remains a large net source of CO2 for the atmosphere, which is only partially compensated by the potential for carbon storage in temperate and boreal regions. Direct and inadvertent human effects on land vegetation might increase the magnitude of regional CO2 storage on land, but they are unlikely to play a significant role in moderating the potential rate of greenhouse warming in the future.
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  • 52
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    Plant ecology 104-105 (1993), S. 357-366 
    ISSN: 1573-5052
    Keywords: IPCC ; Climate change ; Emission targets ; Environmental standards ; Policy principles
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract Emissions, resulting from human activity, are substantially increasing the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. This, in turn, is causing an additional average warming of the Earth's surface. This article presents an overview of recent developments in the international discussion on climate change, taking into account the work of other organizations such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The long term and global character of the climate change problem requires an international long term strategy based on internationally agreed principles such as sustainable development and the precautionary principle. Research is needed to further develop risk assessment and environmental quality standards, from which emission targets can be derived. As a first step, governments of many industrialized countries have already set provisional national CO2 emission targets, aimed at stabilization at present levels by the year 2000 and, in some cases, reductions thereafter. Under the auspices of United Nations, negotiations have begun on an international framework climate convention and associated agreements, on, for example, greenhouse gas emissions, forestry and funding mechanisms. Obligations imposed on individual nations may be expected to reflect their responsibility for greenhouse warming; this paper presents some views on the equity of burden sharing.
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  • 53
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    Plant ecology 104-105 (1993), S. 283-292 
    ISSN: 1573-5052
    Keywords: Carbon storage ; Climate change ; Mineralisation ; Nitrogen cycle ; Rhizosphere ; Soil organic matter
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract The complexity of the plant-soil system in its interaction with the changing climate is discussed. It is shown that processes at the level of organic matter inputs into the soil and the fluxes and pools involved in the global cycle are not known in sufficient detail to allow an estimation of the future quantitative shifts. Even the direction in which the level of stored carbon in the soil organic matter pool will develop is not clear. The importance of the nitrogen cycle, which is intimately coupled to the carbon cycle through the turnover of soil organic matter is underlined. In its turn, the mineralisation of soil organic matter takes place at a rate which is highly dependent on the nature of inputs and the availability of mineral nutrients. Aspects of shifts in temperature, changes in cultivation practices (reduced tillage) and unintended spreading of inputs in chemical N-fertilizers are of great importance at a regional and global scale. The complexity of the interactions in the process of mineralisation do require further studies to clarify the point whether a substantial and durable additional storage of carbon in soil organic matter is likely, or that shifts in temperature will cause an overriding acceleration of the mineralisation, and trigger a corresponding net release of carbon.
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  • 54
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    Environmental and resource economics 3 (1993), S. 41-61 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Keywords: Climate change ; environmental policy ; dynamic control ; stock pollutant ; greenhouses gases
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Efficient policies to control trace gas emissions require estimation of an appropriate “exchange rate” among these gases; i.e. the relative value of reducing emissions of each gas. A dynamic stock pollutant model is developed that considers damages associated with both non-climatic and climatic effects of the gases, differing atmospheric lifetimes of the gases, the discount rate, and non-linear damages. The index value and shadow value of control are estimated for carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, methane, nitrous oxide and the 4 major chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). The value of control for short-lived relative to long-lives gases is lower for low discount rates and quadratic compared with linear damages. The relative value of control for all gases falls relative to carbon dioxide if one considers the direct beneficial effects of carbon dioxide on agriculture. The general approach developed in the paper may have application for other environmental problems where multiple substances pose individual risks but also jointly contribute to a single risk.
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  • 55
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    International journal of biometeorology 36 (1992), S. 51-57 
    ISSN: 1432-1254
    Keywords: Forest productivity ; Climate change ; Great Lakes ; Greenhouse effect ; Northern deciduous forest
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The response of four northern deciduous tree species to annual climate variation is quantified at two intensively measured sites in northern Michigan, USA. Response to changes in temperature and moisture differ with the species and is dependent on other site conditions. Relationships identified in these field studies indicate that projected climate changes may have dramatic effects on the productivity of at least some commercially important tree species in the northern United States.
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  • 56
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    Landscape ecology 6 (1991), S. 7-13 
    ISSN: 1572-9761
    Keywords: Climate change ; sand dunes ; coastal dynamics ; coastal defence ; dune management
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    Topics: Biology
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  • 57
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    Landscape ecology 6 (1991), S. 65-75 
    ISSN: 1572-9761
    Keywords: Climate change ; sand dunes ; wash-over ; vegetation ; Mediterranean ; Golfe du Lion
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Abstract The Golfe du Lion is mainly bordered by low and narrow sand dunes. Since about four decades, 1/3 of its shoreline has been receding, while 1/3 has been prograding and another 1/3 is stable. Several types of dunes may be described mainly depending on storms, high wind frequencies and sand grain size. Vegetation on dune system is distributed along a primary gradient according to sand stability and soil development, and a secondary gradient along slope of dune according to a seasonal cycle of fresh and salt phreatic water level. Global changes in climate may influence these geomorphological and biological structures mainly through:- Winter minimum temperatures changing the distribution of several plant species, especially in the middle part of the Golfe du Lion. - Frequent high storms which cause damages to the front of the dune systems and disrupt the shore. Changes in dune ecosystems will be cyclic so these tendencies will be obvious only upon a long term period.
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  • 58
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    International journal of biometeorology 35 (1991), S. 139-150 
    ISSN: 1432-1254
    Keywords: Human bioclimatology ; Human energy budget ; Bioclimate maps ; Urban climatology ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Notes: Abstract This paper deals with the different effects of climate, and the likely impact of climatic change, on the human being, his health and well-being. Those effects follow from consideration of the human energy budget and air pollution, including photooxidants and radiation, the latter especially in the UV-range. The development of tools to produce bioclimate maps, i.e. maps expressed in physiologically significant terms, in different scales up to the high resolution necessary for the microscale urban climate, will be discussed. The most important questions in bioclimate research and its application will be considered.
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  • 59
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Hydrogen isotope ratio ; Desert ecology ; Water source ; Climate change
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Summary Seasonal changes in the hydrogen isotope ratios of xylem waters were measured to determine water sources used for growth in desert plants of southern Utah. While all species used winter-spring recharge precipitation for spring growth, utilization of summer rains was life-form dependent. Annuals and succulent perennials exhibited a complete dependence on summer precipitation. Herbaceous and woody perennial species simultaneously utilized both summer precipitation and remaining winter-spring precipitation, with herbaceous species much more reliant on the summer precipitation component. Several of the woody perennials exhibited no response to summer precipitation. Currently, precipitation in southern Utah is evenly partitioned between winter and summer time periods; however, global circulation models predict that summer precipitation will increase in response to anticipated climate change. Our data indicate that components within the community will differentially responde to the change in precipitation patterns. These results are discussed in relation to impact on competition and possible changes in community structure.
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  • 60
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    Environmental management 15 (1991), S. 475-481 
    ISSN: 1432-1009
    Keywords: Carbon storage ; Climate change ; Forest management ; Douglas-fir ; Loblolly pine
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract A possible response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration is to attempt to increase the amount of carbon stored in terrestrial vegetation. One approach to increasing the size of the terrestrial carbon sink is to increase the growth of forests by utilizing intensive forest management practices. This article uses data from the literature and from forest growth and yield models to analyze the impact of three management practices on carbon storage: thinning, fertilization, and control of competing vegetation. Using Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) and loblolly pine (Pinus taeda) as example species, results from experiments with computer simulation models suggest that, for these two species, thinning generally does not increase carbon storage and may actually cause a decrease. The exception is thinning of very dense young stands. Fertilization generally increases carbon storage, although the response can be quite variable. The largest gains in carbon storage are likely to come from fertilizing lower-quality sites and from fertilizing thinned or less dense stands. Forests usually show increased growth in response to fertilization over a wide range of ages. Simulation of the growth of loblolly pine indicates that controlling competing vegetation at an early age helps to maximize stand growth and carbon storage.
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  • 61
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    Oecologia 85 (1990), S. 14-24 
    ISSN: 1432-1939
    Keywords: Sub-Antarctic ; Climate change ; Alien biota ; Primary production ; Nutrient cycling
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology
    Notes: Summary Marion Island (47°S, 38°E) has one of the most oceanic climates on earth, with consistently low air temperatures, high precipitation, constantly high humidity, and low incident radiation. Since 1968 mean surface air temperature has increased significantly, by 0.025° C year−1. This was strongly associated with corresponding changes in sea surface temperature but only weakly, or not at all, with variations in radiation and precipitation. We suggest that changing sealevel (atmospheric and oceanic) circulation patterns in the region underlie all of these changes. Sub-Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems are characterized by being species-poor and having a simple trophic structure. Marion Island is no exception and a scenario is presented of the implications of climatic change for the structure and functioning of its ecosystem. Primary production on the island is high and consequently the vegetation has a large annual requirement for nutrients. There are no macroherbivores and even the insects play only a small role as herbivores, so most of the energy and nutrients incorporated in primary production go through a detritus, rather than grazing, cycle. Ameliorating temperatures and increasing CO2 levels are expected to increase productivity and nutrient demand even further. However, most of the plant communities occur on soils which have especially low available levels of nutrients and nutrient mineralization from organic reserves is the main bottleneck in nutrient cycling and primary production. Increasing temperatures will not significantly enhance microbially-mediated mineralization rates since soil microbiological processes on the island are strongly limited by waterlogging, rather than by temperature. The island supports large numbers of soil macro-arthropods, which are responsible for most of the nutrient release from peat and litter. The activities of these animals are strongly temperature dependent and increasing temperature will result in enhanced nutrient availability, allowing the potential for increased primary production due to elevated temperature and CO2 levels to be realized. However, housemice occur on the island and have an important influence on the ecosystem, mainly by feeding on soil invertebrates. The mouse population is strongly temperature-limited and appears to be increasing, possibly as a result of ameliorating temperatures. We suggest that an increasing mouse population, through enhanced predation pressure on soil invertebrates, will decrease overall rates of nutrient cycling and cause imbalances between primary production and decomposition. This, along with more direct effects of mice (e.g. granivory) has important implications for vegetation succession and ecosystem structure and functioning on the island. Some of these are already apparent from comparisons with nearby Prince Edward Island where mice do not occur. Other implications of climatic change for the island are presented which emphasize the very marked influences that invasive organisms have on ecosystem structure and functioning. We suggest that changing sealevel circulation patterns, by allowing opportunities for colonization by new biota, may have an even more important influence on terrestrial sub-Antarctic ecosystems than is suggested merely on the basis of associated changes in temperature or precipitation.
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