ALBERT

Description: Arctic permafrost caps vast amounts of old, geologic methane (CH4) in subsurface reservoirs. Thawing permafrost opens pathways for this CH4 to migrate to the surface. However, the occurrence of geologic emissions and their contribution to the CH4 budget in addition to recent, biogenic CH4 is uncertain. Here we present a high-resolution (100 m × 100 m) regional (10,000 km²) CH4 flux map of the Mackenzie Delta, Canada, based on airborne CH4 flux data from July 2012 and 2013. We identify strong, likely geologic emissions solely where the permafrost is discontinuous. These peaks are 13 times larger than typical biogenic emissions. Whereas microbial CH4 production largely depends on recent air and soil temperature, geologic CH4 was produced over millions of years and can be released year-round provided open pathways exist. Therefore, even though they only occur on about 1% of the area, geologic hotspots contribute 17% to the annual CH4 emission estimate of our study area. We suggest that this share may increase if ongoing permafrost thaw opens new pathways. We conclude that, due to permafrost thaw, hydrocarbon-rich areas, prevalent in the Arctic, may see increased emission of geologic CH4 in the future, in addition to enhanced microbial CH4 production.

Description: Sponges (Porifera) are abundant and diverse members of benthic filter feeding communities in most marine ecosystems, from the deep sea to tropical reefs. A characteristic feature is the associated dense and diverse prokaryotic community present within the sponge mesohyl. Previous molecular genetic studies revealed the importance of host identity for the community composition of the sponge-associated microbiota. However, little is known whether sponge host-specific prokaryotic community patterns observed at 97% 16S rRNA gene sequence similarity are consistent at high taxonomic ranks (from genus to phylum level). In the present study, we investigated the prokaryotic community structure and variation of 24 sponge specimens (seven taxa) and three seawater samples from Sweden. Results show that the resemblance of prokaryotic communities at different taxonomic ranks is consistent with patterns present at 97% operational taxonomic unit level.

Description: The Southern Ocean houses a diverse and productive community of organisms. Unicellular eukaryotic diatoms are the main primary producers in this environment, where photosynthesis is limited by low concentrations of dissolved iron and large seasonal fluctuations in light, temperature and the extent of sea ice. How diatoms have adapted to this extreme environment is largely unknown. Here we present insights into the genome evolution of a cold-adapted diatom from the Southern Ocean, Fragilariopsis cylindrus based on a comparison with temperate diatoms. We find that approximately 24.7 per cent of the diploid F. cylindrus genome consists of genetic loci with alleles that are highly divergent from those of temperate diatoms (15.1 megabases of the total genome size of 61.1 megabases). These divergent alleles were differentially expressed across environmental conditions, including darkness, low iron, freezing, elevated temperature and increased CO2. Alleles with the largest ratio of non-synonymous to synonymous nucleotide substitutions also show the most pronounced condition-dependent expression, suggesting a correlation between diversifying selection and allelic differentiation. Divergent alleles may be involved in adaptation to environmental fluctuations in the Southern Ocean.

Description: Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 7 (2017): 1321, doi:10.1038/s41598-017-01483-z.

Description: We provide a model for the genesis of Holocene coralligenous buildups occurring in the northwestern Adriatic Sea offshore Venice at 17–24 m depth. High-resolution geophysical surveys and underwater SCUBA diving reconnaissance revealed meandering shaped morphologies underneath bio-concretionned rocky buildups. These morphologies are inferred to have been inherited from Pleistocene fluvial systems reactivated as tidal channels during the post- Last Glacial Maximum transgression, when the study area was a lagoon protected by a sandy barrier. The lithification of the sandy fossil channel-levee systems is estimated to have occurred at ca. 7 cal. ka BP, likely due to the interaction between marine and less saline fluids related to onshore freshwater discharge at sea through a sealed water-table. The carbonate-cemented sandy layers served as nucleus for subsequent coralligenous buildups growth.

Description: Funded by the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research within the National Research Program 2011–2013.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 7 (2017): 1772, doi:10.1038/s41598-017-01919-6.

Description: Mississippi River floods rank among the costliest climate-related disasters in the world. Improving flood predictability, preparedness, and response at seasonal to decadal time-scales requires an understanding of the climatic controls that govern flood occurrence. Linking flood occurrence to persistent modes of climate variability like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has proven challenging, due in part to the limited number of high-magnitude floods available for study in the instrumental record. To augment the relatively short instrumental record, we use output from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Last Millennium Ensemble (LME) to investigate the dynamical controls on discharge extremes of the lower Mississippi River. We show that through its regional influence on surface water storage, the warm phase of ENSO preconditions the lower Mississippi River to be vulnerable to flooding. In the 6–12 months preceding a flood, El Niño generates a positive precipitation anomaly over the lower Mississippi basin that gradually builds up soil moisture and reduces the basin’s infiltration capacity, thereby elevating the risk of a major flood during subsequent rainstorms. Our study demonstrates how natural climate variability mediates the formation of extreme floods on one of the world’s principal commercial waterways, adding significant predictive ability to near- and long-term forecasts of flood risk.

Description: This work was funded through the Postdoctoral Scholar Program of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and the Voss Environmental Postdoctoral Fellows Program at Brown University.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Nature Communications 8 (2017): 15595, doi:10.1038/ncomms15595.

Description: Although increasing atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) has been linked to nitrogen loading, predicting emissions remains difficult, in part due to challenges in disentangling diverse N2O production pathways. As coastal ecosystems are especially impacted by elevated nitrogen, we investigated controls on N2O production mechanisms in intertidal sediments using novel isotopic approaches and microsensors in flow-through incubations. Here we show that during incubations with elevated nitrate, increased N2O fluxes are not mediated by direct bacterial activity, but instead are largely catalysed by fungal denitrification and/or abiotic reactions (e.g., chemodenitrification). Results of these incubations shed new light on nitrogen cycling complexity and possible factors underlying variability of N2O fluxes, driven in part by fungal respiration and/or iron redox cycling. As both processes exhibit N2O yields typically far greater than direct bacterial production, these results emphasize their possibly substantial, yet widely overlooked, role in N2O fluxes, especially in redox-dynamic sediments of coastal ecosystems.

Description: D.D.B. acknowledges support from the Max Planck Institute for Marine Microbiology. This work was supported by the National Science Foundation grants to W.Z. and S.D.W. (OCE-1260373) and to S.D.W. (EAR-1252161).

Description: © The Author(s), 2016. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in The ISME Journal 11 (2017): 186–200, doi:10.1038/ismej.2016.95.

Description: Reef-building corals are well regarded not only for their obligate association with endosymbiotic algae, but also with prokaryotic symbionts, the specificity of which remains elusive. To identify the central microbial symbionts of corals, their specificity across species and conservation over geographic regions, we sequenced partial SSU ribosomal RNA genes of Bacteria and Archaea from the common corals Stylophora pistillata and Pocillopora verrucosa across 28 reefs within seven major geographical regions. We demonstrate that both corals harbor Endozoicomonas bacteria as their prevalent symbiont. Importantly, catalyzed reporter deposition–fluorescence in situ hybridization (CARD–FISH) with Endozoicomonas-specific probes confirmed their residence as large aggregations deep within coral tissues. Using fine-scale genotyping techniques and single-cell genomics, we demonstrate that P. verrucosa harbors the same Endozoicomonas, whereas S. pistillata associates with geographically distinct genotypes. This specificity may be shaped by the different reproductive strategies of the hosts, potentially uncovering a pattern of symbiont selection that is linked to life history. Spawning corals such as P. verrucosa acquire prokaryotes from the environment. In contrast, brooding corals such as S. pistillata release symbiont-packed planula larvae, which may explain a strong regional signature in their microbiome. Our work contributes to the factors underlying microbiome specificity and adds detail to coral holobiont functioning.

Description: This research was supported by a KAUST-WHOI Post-doctoral Partnership Award to MN and a KAUST-WHOI Special Academic Partnership Funding Reserve Award to CRV and AA. Research in this study was further supported by baseline research funds to CRV by KAUST and NSF award OCE-1233612 to AA. RR was supported by the ct-PIRE Project, Robert Lemelson Fellowship, Graduate Research Award (UCLA), Women Divers Hall of Fame—Sister Fund Conservation Award and a Betty and E. P. Franklin Grant in Tropical Biology and Conservation.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 7 (2017): 45476, doi:10.1038/srep45476.

Description: The influence of aerosols on climate is highly dependent on the particle size distribution, concentration, and composition. In particular, the latter influences their ability to act as cloud condensation nuclei, whereby they impact cloud coverage and precipitation. Here, we simultaneously measured the concentration of aerosols from sea spray over the North Atlantic on board the exhaust-free solar-powered vessel “PlanetSolar”, and the sea surface physico-chemical parameters. We identified organic-bearing particles based on individual particle fluorescence spectra. Organic-bearing aerosols display specific spatio-temporal distributions as compared to total aerosols. We propose an empirical parameterization of the organic-bearing particle concentration, with a dependence on water salinity and sea-surface temperature only. We also show that a very rich mixture of organic aerosols is emitted from the sea surface. Such data will certainly contribute to providing further insight into the influence of aerosols on cloud formation, and be used as input for the improved modeling of aerosols and their role in global climate processes.

Description: We gratefully acknowledge the financial support by the H. Dudley Wright and the Henri Moser Foundations, the Rector’s Office and the Institute for Environmental Sciences at the University of Geneva, as well as a generous anonymous donator.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Nature Communications 8 (2017): 772, doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00759-2.

Description: In sunlit waters, photochemical alteration of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) impacts the microbial respiration of DOC to CO2. This coupled photochemical and biological degradation of DOC is especially critical for carbon budgets in the Arctic, where thawing permafrost soils increase opportunities for DOC oxidation to CO2 in surface waters, thereby reinforcing global warming. Here we show how and why sunlight exposure impacts microbial respiration of DOC draining permafrost soils. Sunlight significantly increases or decreases microbial respiration of DOC depending on whether photo-alteration produces or removes molecules that native microbial communities used prior to light exposure. Using high-resolution chemical and microbial approaches, we show that rates of DOC processing by microbes are likely governed by a combination of the abundance and lability of DOC exported from land to water and produced by photochemical processes, and the capacity and timescale that microbial communities have to adapt to metabolize photo-altered DOC.

Description: Funding for this work was provided by NSF grants OPP 1023270, 1022876, CAREER 1351745, DEB 1147378, 1347042, 0639790, 1147336, 1026843, PLR 1504006, DOE-JGI-CSP 1782, and the Camille and Henry Dreyfus Foundation Postdoctoral Program in Environmental Chemistry.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 7 (2017): 7271, doi:10.1038/s41598-017-07400-8.

Description: Although experience-dependent changes in brain inhibitory circuits are thought to play a key role during the “critical period” of brain development, the nature and timing of these changes are poorly understood. We examined the role of sensory experience in sculpting an inhibitory circuit in the primary somatosensory cortex (S1) of mice by using optogenetics to map the connections between parvalbumin (PV) expressing interneurons and layer 2/3 pyramidal cells. Unilateral whisker deprivation decreased the strength and spatial range of inhibitory input provided to pyramidal neurons by PV interneurons in layers 2/3, 4 and 5. By varying the time when sensory input was removed, we determined that the critical period closes around postnatal day 14. This yields the first precise time course of critical period plasticity for an inhibitory circuit.

Description: This work was supported by a fellowship from NUS to SQL, A*STAR intramural funding for the Integrative Neuroscience Programme, Singapore Institute for Clinical Sciences for JCGS, and a Competitive Research Programme (CRP) grant from the National Research Foundation of Singapore (NRF Grant Number 2008 NRF-CRP 002-082).

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 7 (2017): 6040, doi:10.1038/s41598-017-05590-9.

Description: Selection of microorganisms in marine sediment is shaped by energy-yielding electron acceptors for respiration that are depleted in vertical succession. However, some taxa have been reported to reflect past depositional conditions suggesting they have experienced weak selection after burial. In sediments underlying the Arabian Sea oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), we performed the first metagenomic profiling of sedimentary DNA at centennial-scale resolution in the context of a multi-proxy paleoclimate reconstruction. While vertical distributions of sulfate reducing bacteria and methanogens indicate energy-based selection typical of anoxic marine sediments, 5–15% of taxa per sample exhibit depth-independent stratigraphies indicative of paleoenvironmental selection over relatively short geological timescales. Despite being vertically separated, indicator taxa deposited under OMZ conditions were more similar to one another than those deposited in bioturbated intervals under intervening higher oxygen. The genomic potential for denitrification also correlated with palaeo-OMZ proxies, independent of sediment depth and available nitrate and nitrite. However, metagenomes revealed mixed acid and Entner-Dourdoroff fermentation pathways encoded by many of the same denitrifier groups. Fermentation thus may explain the subsistence of these facultatively anaerobic microbes whose stratigraphy follows changing paleoceanographic conditions. At least for certain taxa, our analysis provides evidence of their paleoenvironmental selection over the last glacial-interglacial cycle.

Description: his work was primarily supported by NSF MGG Grant #1357017 to MJLC, VG, and LG, and the KAUST-WHOI Special Academic Partnership Program OCRF-SP-WHOI-2013 (grants 7000000463 to XI and 7000000464 to MJLC). Additional financial support was provided via a C-DEBI grant #OCE-0939564 to WDO.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Nature Communications 8 (2017): 832, doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00890-0.

Description: Colonially-breeding seabirds have long served as indicator species for the health of the oceans on which they depend. Abundance and breeding data are repeatedly collected at fixed study sites in the hopes that changes in abundance and productivity may be useful for adaptive management of marine resources, but their suitability for this purpose is often unknown. To address this, we fit a Bayesian population dynamics model that includes process and observation error to all known Adélie penguin abundance data (1982–2015) in the Antarctic, covering 〉95% of their population globally. We find that process error exceeds observation error in this system, and that continent-wide “year effects” strongly influence population growth rates. Our findings have important implications for the use of Adélie penguins in Southern Ocean feedback management, and suggest that aggregating abundance across space provides the fastest reliable signal of true population change for species whose dynamics are driven by stochastic processes.

Description: H.J.L., C.C.-C., G.H., C.Y., and K.T.S. gratefully acknowledge funding provided by US National Aeronautics and Space Administration Award No. NNX14AC32G and U.S. National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs Award No. NSF/OPP-1255058. S.J., L.L., M.M.H., Y.L., and R.J. gratefully acknowledge funding provided by US National Aeronautics and Space Administration Award No. NNX14AH74G. H.J.L., C.Y., S.J., Y.L., and R.J. gratefully acknowledge funding provided by U.S. National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs Award No. NSF/PLR-1341548. S.J. gratefully acknowledges support from the Dalio Explore Fund.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 7 (2017): 13460, doi:10.1038/s41598-017-13359-3.

Description: Given new distribution patterns of the endangered North Atlantic right whale (NARW; Eubalaena glacialis) population in recent years, an improved understanding of spatio-temporal movements are imperative for the conservation of this species. While so far visual data have provided most information on NARW movements, passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) was used in this study in order to better capture year-round NARW presence. This project used PAM data from 2004 to 2014 collected by 19 organizations throughout the western North Atlantic Ocean. Overall, data from 324 recorders (35,600 days) were processed and analyzed using a classification and detection system. Results highlight almost year-round habitat use of the western North Atlantic Ocean, with a decrease in detections in waters off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina in summer and fall. Data collected post 2010 showed an increased NARW presence in the mid-Atlantic region and a simultaneous decrease in the northern Gulf of Maine. In addition, NARWs were widely distributed across most regions throughout winter months. This study demonstrates that a large-scale analysis of PAM data provides significant value to understanding and tracking shifts in large whale movements over long time scales.

Description: This research was funded and supported by many organizations, specified by projects as follows: Data recordings from region 1 were provided by K. Stafford and this research effort was funded by the National Science Foundation #NSF-ARC 0532611. Region 2 data were provided by D. K. Mellinger and S. Nieukirk, funded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) and the Office of Naval Research (ONR) #N00014–03–1–0099, NOAA #NA06OAR4600100, US Navy #N00244-08-1-0029, N00244-09-1-0079, and N00244-10-1-0047.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 7 (2017): 1267, doi:10.1038/s41598-017-01260-y.

Description: Changes in plant phenology affect the carbon flux of terrestrial forest ecosystems due to the link between the growing season length and vegetation productivity. Digital camera imagery, which can be acquired frequently, has been used to monitor seasonal and annual changes in forest canopy phenology and track critical phenological events. However, quantitative assessment of the structural and biochemical controls of the phenological patterns in camera images has rarely been done. In this study, we used an NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) camera to monitor daily variations of vegetation reflectance at visible and near-infrared (NIR) bands with high spatial and temporal resolutions, and found that the infrared camera based NDVI (camera-NDVI) agreed well with the leaf expansion process that was measured by independent manual observations at Harvard Forest, Massachusetts, USA. We also measured the seasonality of canopy structural (leaf area index, LAI) and biochemical properties (leaf chlorophyll and nitrogen content). We found significant linear relationships between camera-NDVI and leaf chlorophyll concentration, and between camera-NDVI and leaf nitrogen content, though weaker relationships between camera-NDVI and LAI. Therefore, we recommend ground-based camera-NDVI as a powerful tool for long-term, near surface observations to monitor canopy development and to estimate leaf chlorophyll, nitrogen status, and LAI.

Description: This research was supported by US Department of Energy Office of Biological and Environmental Research Grant DE-SC0006951, National Science Foundation Grants DBI-959333 and AGS-1005663, and the University of Chicago and the MBL Lillie Research Innovation Award to J.T. and China Scholarship Council (CSC) to H.Y.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Nature Communications 8 (2017): 172, doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00197-0.

Description: Upwelling of global deep waters to the sea surface in the Southern Ocean closes the global overturning circulation and is fundamentally important for oceanic uptake of carbon and heat, nutrient resupply for sustaining oceanic biological production, and the melt rate of ice shelves. However, the exact pathways and role of topography in Southern Ocean upwelling remain largely unknown. Here we show detailed upwelling pathways in three dimensions, using hydrographic observations and particle tracking in high-resolution models. The analysis reveals that the northern-sourced deep waters enter the Antarctic Circumpolar Current via southward flow along the boundaries of the three ocean basins, before spiraling southeastward and upward through the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Upwelling is greatly enhanced at five major topographic features, associated with vigorous mesoscale eddy activity. Deep water reaches the upper ocean predominantly south of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, with a spatially nonuniform distribution. The timescale for half of the deep water to upwell from 30° S to the mixed layer is ~60–90 years.

Description: V.T., L.D.T., and M.R.M. were supported by NSF OCE-1357072. A.K.M., H.F.D., and W.W. were supported by the RGCM program of the US Department of Energy under Contract DE-SC0012457. J.L.S. acknowledges NSF’s Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling project under NSF PLR-1425989, which partially supported L.D.T. and M.R.M. as well. C.O.D was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under Award NNX14AL40G and by the Princeton Environmental Institute Grand Challenge initiative. A.R.G. was supported by a Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellowship from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). S.M.G. acknowledges the ongoing support of NOAA/GFDL for high-end ocean and climate-modeling activities. J.W. acknowledges support from NSF OCE-1234473.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 7 (2017): 1030, doi:10.1038/s41598-017-01224-2.

Description: Mangrove wetlands provide ecosystem services for millions of people, most prominently by providing storm protection, food and fodder. Mangrove wetlands are also valuable ecosystems for promoting carbon (C) sequestration and storage. However, loss of mangrove wetlands and these ecosystem services are a global concern, prompting the restoration and creation of mangrove wetlands as a potential solution. Here, we investigate soil surface elevation change, and its components, in created mangrove wetlands over a 25 year developmental gradient. All created mangrove wetlands were exceeding current relative sea-level rise rates (2.6 mm yr−1), with surface elevation change of 4.2–11.0 mm yr−1 compared with 1.5–7.2 mm yr−1 for nearby reference mangroves. While mangrove wetlands store C persistently in roots/soils, storage capacity is most valuable if maintained with future sea-level rise. Through empirical modeling, we discovered that properly designed creation projects may not only yield enhanced C storage, but also can facilitate wetland persistence perennially under current rates of sea-level rise and, for most sites, for over a century with projected medium accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 6.0). Only the fastest projected accelerations in sea-level rise (IPCC RCP 8.5) led to widespread submergence and potential loss of stored C for created mangrove wetlands before 2100.

Description: Funding for this research was provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Gulf Ecology Division; U.S. Geological Survey, Climate and Land Use Change R&D Program; and U.S. Geological Survey, Environments Program.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in ISME Journal 11 (2017): 2090–2101, doi:10.1038/ismej.2017.74.

Description: Trichodesmium is a genus of marine diazotrophic colonial cyanobacteria that exerts a profound influence on global biogeochemistry, by injecting ‘new’ nitrogen into the low nutrient systems where it occurs. Colonies of Trichodesmium ubiquitously contain a diverse assemblage of epibiotic microorganisms, constituting a microbiome on the Trichodesmium host. Metagenome sequences from Trichodesmium colonies were analyzed along a resource gradient in the western North Atlantic to examine microbiome community structure, functional diversity and metabolic contributions to the holobiont. Here we demonstrate the presence of a core Trichodesmium microbiome that is modulated to suit different ocean regions, and contributes over 10 times the metabolic potential of Trichodesmium to the holobiont. Given the ubiquitous nature of epibionts on colonies, the substantial functional diversity within the microbiome is likely an integral facet of Trichodesmium physiological ecology across the oligotrophic oceans where this biogeochemically significant diazotroph thrives.

Description: This research was funded by grants from the National Science Foundation to STD (OCE-1332912) and BASVM (OCE-1332898).

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 7 (2017): 5476, doi:10.1038/s41598-017-05745-8.

Description: The lost Saraswati River mentioned in the ancient Indian tradition is postulated to have flown independently of the Indus River into the Arabian Sea, perhaps along courses of now defunct rivers such as Ghaggar, Hakra and Nara. The persistence of such a river during the Harappan Bronze Age and the Iron Age Vedic period is strongly debated. We drilled in the Great Rann of Kachchh (Kutch), an infilled gulf of the Arabian Sea, which must have received input from the Saraswati, if active. Nd and Sr isotopic measurements suggest that a distinct source may have been present before 10 ka. Later in Holocene, under a drying climate, sediments from the Thar Desert probably choked the signature of an independent Saraswati-like river. Alternatively, without excluding a Saraswati-like secondary source, the Indus and the Thar were the dominant sources throughout the post-glacial history of the GRK. Indus-derived sediment accelerated the infilling of GRK after ~6 ka when the Indus delta started to grow. Until its complete infilling few centuries ago, freshwater input from the Indus, and perhaps from the Ghaggar-Hakra-Nara, probably sustained a productive marine environment as well as navigability toward old coastal Harappan and historic towns in the region.

Description: The drilling effort and subsequent study of the cores was funded by Department of Science and Technology (DST), Government of India sponsored research project to DMM (Project No. SR/S4/ES-21/Kachchh Window/P1) under the science of Shallow Subsurface Programme (SSS). N. Khonde gratefully acknowledges Indo-US Post-doctoral Fellowship sponsored by SERB-IUSSTF for research work at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Nature Communications 8 (2017): 844, doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00853-5.

Description: Authigenic clay minerals formed on or in the seafloor occur in every type of marine sediment. They are recognized to be a major sink of many elements in the ocean but are difficult to study directly due to dilution by detrital clay minerals. The extremely low dust fluxes and marine sedimentation rates in the South Pacific Gyre (SPG) provide a unique opportunity to examine relatively undiluted authigenic clay. Here, using Mg isotopes and element concentrations combined with multivariate statistical modeling, we fingerprint and quantify the abundance of authigenic clay within SPG sediment. Key reactants include volcanic ash (source of reactive aluminium) and reactive biogenic silica on or shallowly buried within the seafloor. Our results, together with previous studies, suggest that global reorganizations of biogenic silica burial over the Cenozoic reduced marine authigenic clay formation, contributing to the rise in seawater Mg/Ca and decline in atmospheric CO2 over the past 50 million years.

Description: Funding for this research was provided by the U.S. National Science Foundation to R.W.M. (OCE1130531) and to J.A.H. (OCE1654571).

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 7 (2017): 12942, doi:10.1038/s41598-017-13380-6.

Description: Penguin guano provides favorable conditions for production and emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Many studies have been conducted to determine the GHG fluxes from penguin colonies, however, at regional scale, there is still no accurate estimation of total GHG emissions. We used object-based image analysis (OBIA) method to estimate the Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) population based on aerial photography data. A model was developed to estimate total GHG emission potential from Adélie penguin colonies during breeding seasons in 1983 and 2012, respectively. Results indicated that OBIA method was effective for extracting penguin information from aerial photographs. There were 17,120 and 21,183 Adélie penguin breeding pairs on Inexpressible Island in 1983 and 2012, respectively, with overall accuracy of the estimation of 76.8%. The main reasons for the increase in Adélie penguin populations were attributed to increase in temperature, sea ice and phytoplankton. The average estimated CH4 and N2O emissions tended to be increasing during the period from 1983 to 2012 and CH4 was the main GHG emitted from penguin colonies. Total global warming potential (GWP) of CH4 and N2O emissions was 5303 kg CO2-eq in 1983 and 6561 kg CO2-eq in 2012, respectively.

Description: This work was supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Grant No. 312231103), the Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration, National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos 41676176 and 41676182), the Chinese Polar Environment Comprehensive Investigation, Assessment Program.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Nature Communications 8 (2017): 1114, doi:10.1038/s41467-017-01228-6.

Description: Little is known about evolutionary drivers of microbial populations in the warm subseafloor of deep-sea hydrothermal vents. Here we reconstruct 73 metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) from two geochemically distinct vent fields in the Mid-Cayman Rise to investigate patterns of genomic variation within subseafloor populations. Low-abundance populations with high intra-population diversity coexist alongside high-abundance populations with low genomic diversity, with taxonomic differences in patterns of genomic variation between the mafic Piccard and ultramafic Von Damm vent fields. Populations from Piccard are significantly enriched in nonsynonymous mutations, suggesting stronger purifying selection in Von Damm relative to Piccard. Comparison of nine Sulfurovum MAGs reveals two high-coverage, low-diversity MAGs from Piccard enriched in unique genes related to the cellular membrane, suggesting these populations were subject to distinct evolutionary pressures that may correlate with genes related to nutrient uptake, biofilm formation, or viral invasion. These results are consistent with distinct evolutionary histories between geochemically different vent fields, with implications for understanding evolutionary processes in subseafloor microbial populations.

Description: R.E.A. was supported by a NASA Postdoctoral Fellowship with the NASA Astrobiology Institute. This work was supported by a NASA Astrobiology Science and Technology for Exploring Planets (ASTEP) grant NNX-327 09AB75G and a grant from Deep Carbon Observatory's Deep Life Initiative to J.A.H. and J.S.S., and the NSF Science and Technology Center for Dark Energy Biosphere Investigations (C-DEBI). Ship and vehicle time in 2012 was supported by the NSF-OCE grant OCE-1061863 to J.S.S.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Nature Communications 8 (2017): 16107, doi:10.1038/ncomms16107.

Description: The hydrothermal alteration of mantle rocks (referred to as serpentinization) occurs in submarine environments extending from mid-ocean ridges to subduction zones. Serpentinization affects the physical and chemical properties of oceanic lithosphere, represents one of the major mechanisms driving mass exchange between the mantle and the Earth’s surface, and is central to current origin of life hypotheses as well as the search for microbial life on the icy moons of Jupiter and Saturn. In spite of increasing interest in the serpentinization process by researchers in diverse fields, the rates of serpentinization and the controlling factors are poorly understood. Here we use a novel in situ experimental method involving olivine micro-reactors and show that the rate of serpentinization is strongly controlled by the salinity (water activity) of the reacting fluid and demonstrate that the rate of serpentinization of olivine slows down as salinity increases and H2O activity decreases.

Description: This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant OCE-1459433 to R.J.B. and E.M.S. Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACyT), the Virginia Tech Department of Geosciences and Virginia Tech Graduate School provided partial funding to HML during this study. F.K. was supported by The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 7 (2017): 8350, doi:10.1038/s41598-017-07676-w.

Description: Although it is known that seals can use their whiskers (vibrissae) to extract relevant information from complex underwater flow fields, the underlying functioning of the system and the signals received by the sensors are poorly understood. Here we show that the vibrations of seal whiskers may provide information about hydrodynamic events and enable the sophisticated wake-tracking abilities of these animals. We developed a miniature accelerometer tag to study seal whisker movement in situ. We tested the ability of the tag to measure vibration in excised whiskers in a flume in response to laminar flow and disturbed flow. We then trained a seal to wear the tag and follow an underwater hydrodynamic trail to measure the whisker signals available to the seal. The results showed that whiskers vibrated at frequencies of 100–300 Hz, with a dynamic response. These measurements are the first to capture the incoming signals received by the vibrissae of a live seal and show that there are prominent signals at frequencies where the seal tactogram shows good sensitivity. Tapping into the mechanoreceptive interface between the animal and the environment may help to decipher the functional basis of this extraordinary hydrodynamic detection ability.

Description: Funding was provided by the NSF GRFP and NISE section 219 to C. Murphy and by the Office of Naval Research (N000141910468) to B. Calhoun.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 7 (2017): 38, doi:10.1038/s41598-017-00074-2.

Description: The Gulf of Aqaba transform plate boundary is a source of destructive teleseismic earthquakes. Seismicity is concentrated in the central sub-basin and decreases to both the north and south. Although principally a strike-slip plate boundary, the faulted margins of the Gulf display largely dip-slip extensional movement and accompanying footwall uplift. We have constrained rates of this uplift by measurements of elevated Pleistocene coral terraces. In particular the terrace that formed during the last interglacial (~125 ka) is found discontinuously along the length of the Gulf at elevations of 3 to 26 m. Global sea level was ~7 m higher than today at 125 ka indicating net maximum tectonic uplift of ~19 m with an average rate of ~0.015 cm/yr. Uplift has been greatest adjacent to the central sub-basin and like the seismicity decreases to the north and south. We suggest that the present pattern of a seismically active central region linked to more aseismic areas in the north and south has therefore persisted for at least the past 125 kyr. Consequently the potential for future destructive earthquakes in the central Gulf is greater than in the sub-basins to the north and south.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 7 (2017): 41095, doi:10.1038/srep41095.

Description: Adenosine-to-inosine RNA editing in transcripts encoding the voltage-gated potassium channel Kv1.1 converts an isoleucine to valine codon for amino acid 400, speeding channel recovery from inactivation. Numerous Kv1.1 mutations have been associated with the human disorder Episodic Ataxia Type-1 (EA1), characterized by stress-induced ataxia, myokymia, and increased prevalence of seizures. Three EA1 mutations, V404I, I407M, and V408A, are located within the RNA duplex structure required for RNA editing. Each mutation decreased RNA editing both in vitro and using an in vivo mouse model bearing the V408A allele. Editing of transcripts encoding mutant channels affects numerous biophysical properties including channel opening, closing, and inactivation. Thus EA1 symptoms could be influenced not only by the direct effects of the mutations on channel properties, but also by their influence on RNA editing. These studies provide the first evidence that mutations associated with human genetic disorders can affect cis-regulatory elements to alter RNA editing.

Description: This work was supported by the Vanderbilt Molecular Endocrinology Training Program (T32DK007563; E.A.F.K.), a Ruth L. Kirschstein National Research Service Award (F31NS087911; E.A.F.K), a Vanderbilt Dissertation Enhancement Grant (E.A.F.K.), and the Vanderbilt Joel G. Hardman Chair in Pharmacology (R.B.E). Additional support for J.J.C.R. included NINDS (R0111223855, R01NS64259) and the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Therapeutics (Rosent14XXO). Infrastructural support for J.J.C.R. was provided by NIGMS (P20GM103642), NIMH (G12-MD007600), and NSF (DBI 0115825, DBI 1337284).

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Nature Communications 8 (2017): 14197, doi:10.1038/ncomms14197.

Description: It is an open question whether turbulent mixing across density surfaces is sufficiently large to play a dominant role in closing the deep branch of the ocean meridional overturning circulation. The diapycnal and isopycnal mixing experiment in the Southern Ocean found the turbulent diffusivity inferred from the vertical spreading of a tracer to be an order of magnitude larger than that inferred from the microstructure profiles at the mean tracer depth of 1,500 m in the Drake Passage. Using a high-resolution ocean model, it is shown that the fast vertical spreading of tracer occurs when it comes in contact with mixing hotspots over rough topography. The sparsity of such hotspots is made up for by enhanced tracer residence time in their vicinity due to diffusion toward weak bottom flows. The increased tracer residence time may explain the large vertical fluxes of heat and salt required to close the abyssal circulation.

Description: Financial support for A.M. and R.F. under the US National Science Foundation grant OCE-1233832 is gratefully acknowledged. A.M. also acknowledges support from an NSERC PDF award.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 7 (2017): 10129, doi:10.1038/s41598-017-10974-y.

Description: Transports of suspended particulate (POCsusp) and dissolved (DOC) organic carbon are inferred from a box-model covering the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic subtropical gyre. Corresponding net respiration rates (R) are obtained from a net organic carbon budget that is based on the transport estimates, and includes both vertical and lateral fluxes. The overall R in the mesopelagic layer (100–1500 m) is 1.6 ± 0.4 mmol C m−2 d−1. DOC accounts for up to 53% of R as a result of drawdown of organic carbon within Eastern North Atlantic Central Water (ENACW) that is entrained into sinking Mediterranean Overflow Water (MOW) that leads to formation of Mediterranean water (MW) at intermediate depths (~900 m). DOC represents 90% of the respired non-sinking organic carbon. When converted into oxygen units, the computed net respiration rate represents less than half the oxygen utilization rates (OUR) reported for the mesopelagic waters of the subtropical North Atlantic. Mesoscale processes in the area, not quantified with our approach, could account in part for the OUR differences observed between our carbon budget and other published studies from the North Atlantic, although seasonal or interannual variability could also be responsible for the difference in the estimates.

Description: This research was supported by projects ORCA (CTM2005-04701-CO2-01), Malaspina (CSD2008-00077), HOTMIX (CTM2011-30010-C02) and FLUXES (CTM2015-69392-C3), financed by the Spanish “Plan Nacional de I + D”. YSF was supported by a Spanish fellowship from the Agencia Canaria de Investigación, Innovación y Sociedad de la Información (ACIISI). EM has been partially supported by the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) MedSUB project, and a post-doctoral grant from the Conselleria d’Educació, Cultura i Universitats del Govern de les Illes Balears (Mallorca, Spain) and the European Social Fund.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 7 (2017): 11914, doi::10.1038/s41598-017-12138-4.

Description: Coastal wetlands are sites of rapid carbon (C) sequestration and contain large soil C stocks. Thus, there is increasing interest in those ecosystems as sites for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission offset projects (sometimes referred to as “Blue Carbon”), through preservation of existing C stocks or creation of new wetlands to increase future sequestration. Here we show that in the globallywidespread occurrence of diked, impounded, drained and tidally-restricted salt marshes, substantial methane (CH4) and CO2 emission reductions can be achieved through restoration of disconnected saline tidal flows. Modeled climatic forcing indicates that tidal restoration to reduce emissions has a much greater impact per unit area than wetland creation or conservation to enhance sequestration. Given that GHG emissions in tidally-restricted, degraded wetlands are caused by human activity, they are anthropogenic emissions, and reducing them will have an effect on climate that is equivalent to reduced emission of an equal quantity of fossil fuel GHG. Thus, as a landuse-based climate change intervention, reducing CH4 emissions is an entirely distinct concept from biological C sequestration projects to enhance C storage in forest or wetland biomass or soil, and will not suffer from the non-permanence risk that stored C will be returned to the atmosphere.

Description: Research supported by the USGS Coastal & Marine Geology Program, USGS Land Carbon Program, and NOAA Science Collaborative grant #NA09NOS4190153.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Nature Communications 8 (2017): 1452, doi:10.1038/s41467-017-01250-8.

Description: Light-sheet fluorescence microscopy (LSFM) enables high-speed, high-resolution, and gentle imaging of live specimens over extended periods. Here we describe a technique that improves the spatiotemporal resolution and collection efficiency of LSFM without modifying the underlying microscope. By imaging samples on reflective coverslips, we enable simultaneous collection of four complementary views in 250 ms, doubling speed and improving information content relative to symmetric dual-view LSFM. We also report a modified deconvolution algorithm that removes associated epifluorescence contamination and fuses all views for resolution recovery. Furthermore, we enhance spatial resolution (to 〈300 nm in all three dimensions) by applying our method to single-view LSFM, permitting simultaneous acquisition of two high-resolution views otherwise difficult to obtain due to steric constraints at high numerical aperture. We demonstrate the broad applicability of our method in a variety of samples, studying mitochondrial, membrane, Golgi, and microtubule dynamics in cells and calcium activity in nematode embryos.

Description: This work was supported by the Intramural Research Program of the National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering at the National Institutes of Health. P.L. and H.S. acknowledge summer support from the Marine Biological Laboratory at Woods Hole, through the Whitman- and Fellows- program. P.L. acknowledges support from NIH National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering (NIBIB) of the National Institutes of Health (NIH) under grant number R01EB017293. C.S. acknowledges funding from the National Institute of General Medical Sciences of NIH under Award Number R25GM109439 (Project Title: University of Chicago Initiative for Maximizing Student Development [IMSD]) and NIBIB under grant number T32 EB002103. Partial funding for the computation in this work was provided by NIH grant numbers S10 RRO21039 and P30 CA14599. A.U. and I.R.-S. were supported by the NSF grant number 1607645.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Nature Communications 8 (2017): 520, doi:10.1038/s41467-017-00577-6.

Description: Contrasting Greenland and Antarctic temperatures during the last glacial period (115,000 to 11,650 years ago) are thought to have been driven by imbalances in the rates of formation of North Atlantic and Antarctic Deep Water (the ‘bipolar seesaw’). Here we exploit a bidecadally resolved 14C data set obtained from New Zealand kauri (Agathis australis) to undertake high-precision alignment of key climate data sets spanning iceberg-rafted debris event Heinrich 3 and Greenland Interstadial (GI) 5.1 in the North Atlantic (~30,400 to 28,400 years ago). We observe no divergence between the kauri and Atlantic marine sediment 14C data sets, implying limited changes in deep water formation. However, a Southern Ocean (Atlantic-sector) iceberg rafted debris event appears to have occurred synchronously with GI-5.1 warming and decreased precipitation over the western equatorial Pacific and Atlantic. An ensemble of transient meltwater simulations shows that Antarctic-sourced salinity anomalies can generate climate changes that are propagated globally via an atmospheric Rossby wave train.

Description: This work was funded by the Australian Research Council (FL100100195, DP170104665 and SR140300001) and the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/H009922/1 and NE/H007865/1).

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 7 (2017): 14131, doi:10.1038/s41598-017-13301-7.

Description: Bisphenol A (BPA) is widely used in the manufacture of plastics and epoxy resins and is prevalent in the aquatic environment. BPA disrupts endocrine pathways in fish, but the long-term developmental implications are unknown. We demonstrate that BPA deposition in the eggs of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), an ecologically and economically important species of fish, reprograms liver metabolism in the offspring and alters the developmental growth trajectory in two generations. Specifically, BPA reduces growth during early development, followed by a catch-up growth post-juveniles. More importantly, we observed a developmental shift in the liver transcriptome, including an increased propensity for protein breakdown during early life stages to lipid and cholesterol synthesis post- juveniles. The liver molecular responses corresponded with the transient growth phenotypes observed in the F1 generation, and this was also evident in the F2 generation. Altogether, maternal and/or ancestral embryonic exposure to BPA affects liver metabolism leading to development-distinct effects on growth, underscoring the need for novel risk assessment strategies for this chemical in the aquatic environment. This is particularly applicable to migratory species, such as salmon, where distinct temporal changes in growth and physiology during development are critical for their spawning success.

Description: This study was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC) Discovery and Strategic Project Grants to MMV. Drs. Neel Aluru and Oana Birceanu received a NSERC post-doctoral fellowship and Canada Graduate Scholarship.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Nature Communications 8 (2017): 1342, doi:10.1038/s41467-017-01229-5.

Description: Geochemical analyses of sedimentary barites (barium sulfates) in the geological record have yielded fundamental insights into the chemistry of the Archean environment and evolutionary origin of microbial metabolisms. However, the question of how barites were able to precipitate from a contemporary ocean that contained only trace amounts of sulfate remains controversial. Here we report dissolved and particulate multi-element and barium-isotopic data from Lake Superior that evidence pelagic barite precipitation at micromolar ambient sulfate. These pelagic barites likely precipitate within particle-associated microenvironments supplied with additional barium and sulfate ions derived from heterotrophic remineralization of organic matter. If active during the Archean, pelagic precipitation and subsequent sedimentation may account for the genesis of enigmatic barite deposits. Indeed, barium-isotopic analyses of barites from the Paleoarchean Dresser Formation are consistent with a pelagic mechanism of precipitation, which altogether offers a new paradigm for interpreting the temporal occurrence of barites in the geological record.

Description: This research was made possible with support from the National Science Foundation Division of Ocean Sciences (OCE-PRF 1421196, OCE-1430015, and OCE-1443577), The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Endowed Fund for Innovative Research, and the Agouron Institute Geobiology Postdoctoral Fellowship Program.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Nature Communications 8 (2017): 1835, doi:10.1038/s41467-017-01776-x.

Description: Subterranean estuaries extend inland into density-stratified coastal carbonate aquifers containing a surprising diversity of endemic animals (mostly crustaceans) within a highly oligotrophic habitat. How complex ecosystems (termed anchialine) thrive in this globally distributed, cryptic environment is poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate that a microbial loop shuttles methane and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to higher trophic levels of the anchialine food web in the Yucatan Peninsula (Mexico). Methane and DOC production and consumption within the coastal groundwater correspond with a microbial community capable of methanotrophy, heterotrophy, and chemoautotrophy, based on characterization by 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing and respiratory quinone composition. Fatty acid and bulk stable carbon isotope values of cave-adapted shrimp suggest that carbon from methanotrophic bacteria comprises 21% of their diet, on average. These findings reveal a heretofore unrecognized subterranean methane sink and contribute to our understanding of the carbon cycle and ecosystem function of karst subterranean estuaries.

Description: Funding for T.M.I. and D.B. was provided by TAMU-CONACYT (project no: 2015-049). D.B. was supported by Research-in-Residence program (NSF award #1137336, Inter-University Training in Continental-scale Ecology), Cave Research Foundation Graduate Student Grant, Cave Conservancy Foundation PhD Fellowship, Ralph W. Stone Fellowship (National Speleological Society), Grants-in-Aid of Graduate Student Research Award (Texas Sea Grant College Program), and Boost Fellowship (Texas A&M University at Galveston). Additional financial support was provided by NSF DEB-1257424 (M.B.L. and M.C.L.), the Postdoctoral Program at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and U.S. Geological Survey (K.W.B.).

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Scientific Reports 7 (2017): 44586, doi:10.1038/srep44586.

Description: A 2°C increase in global temperature above pre-industrial levels is considered a reasonable target for avoiding the most devastating impacts of anthropogenic climate change. In June 2015, sea surface temperature (SST) of the South China Sea (SCS) increased by 2 °C in response to the developing Pacific El Niño. On its own, this moderate, short-lived warming was unlikely to cause widespread damage to coral reefs in the region, and the coral reef “Bleaching Alert” alarm was not raised. However, on Dongsha Atoll, in the northern SCS, unusually weak winds created low-flow conditions that amplified the 2°C basin-scale anomaly. Water temperatures on the reef flat, normally indistinguishable from open-ocean SST, exceeded 6°C above normal summertime levels. Mass coral bleaching quickly ensued, killing 40% of the resident coral community in an event unprecedented in at least the past 40 years. Our findings highlight the risks of 2°C ocean warming to coral reef ecosystems when global and local processes align to drive intense heating, with devastating consequences.

Description: This research was funded by the National Science Foundation (OCE-1031971 and OCE-1605365 to A.L.C), the Sustainability Science Research Program of the Academia Sinica (G.T.F.W. and A.L.C), a Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Coastal Ocean Institute award to T.M.D., and a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship awarded to T.M.D.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Nature Communications 8 (2017): 1870, doi:10.1038/s41467-017-01610-4.

Description: Peridotite carbonation represents a critical step within the long-term carbon cycle by sequestering volatile CO2 in solid carbonate. This has been proposed as one potential pathway to mitigate the effects of greenhouse gas release. Most of our current understanding of reaction mechanisms is based on hand specimen and laboratory-scale analyses. Linking laboratory-scale observations to field scale processes remains challenging. Here we present the first geophysical characterization of serpentinite carbonation across scales ranging from km to sub-mm by combining aeromagnetic observations, outcrop- and thin section-scale magnetic mapping. At all scales, magnetic anomalies coherently change across reaction fronts separating assemblages indicative of incipient, intermittent, and final reaction progress. The abundance of magnetic minerals correlates with reaction progress, causing amplitude and wavelength variations in associated magnetic anomalies. This correlation represents a foundation for characterizing the extent and degree of in situ ultramafic rock carbonation in space and time.

Description: This project was supported by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Independent Study Award (Tivey and Tominaga) and by NASA Astrobiology Institute NNA15BB02A (Tominaga). M.T. and A.B. are grateful to B. Jamtveit and H. Austrheim (University of Oslo) for their support during the 2011 and 2013 field campaigns. B.W. and E.A.L. thank the National Science Foundation grant DMS-1521765 and Thomas F. Peterson, Jr for generous support.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Nature Communications 8 (2017): 1602, doi:10.1038/s41467-017-01774-z.

Description: Land-atmosphere exchanges influence atmospheric CO2. Emphasis has been on describing photosynthetic CO2 uptake, but less on respiration losses. New global datasets describe upper canopy dark respiration (Rd) and temperature dependencies. This allows characterisation of baseline Rd, instantaneous temperature responses and longer-term thermal acclimation effects. Here we show the global implications of these parameterisations with a global gridded land model. This model aggregates Rd to whole-plant respiration Rp, driven with meteorological forcings spanning uncertainty across climate change models. For pre-industrial estimates, new baseline Rd increases Rp and especially in the tropics. Compared to new baseline, revised instantaneous response decreases Rp for mid-latitudes, while acclimation lowers this for the tropics with increases elsewhere. Under global warming, new Rd estimates amplify modelled respiration increases, although partially lowered by acclimation. Future measurements will refine how Rd aggregates to whole-plant respiration. Our analysis suggests Rp could be around 30% higher than existing estimates.

Description: C.H. acknowledges the NERC CEH National Capability fund. The support of the Australian Research Council to O.K.A. and P.M. (DP130101252, CE140100008, FT0991448, FT110100457) is acknowledged, as are awards DE-FG02-07ER64456 from the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research and DEB-1234162 from the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) Long-Term Ecological Research Program (to P.B.R.); and National Science Foundation International Polar Year Grant (to K.L.G.). L.M.M. acknowledges the support of the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA) project grant code NE/J010057/1.

Description: © The Author(s), 2017. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Nature Communications 8 (2017): 2047, doi:10.1038/s41467-017-01848-y.

Description: Integrin αβ heterodimer cell surface receptors mediate adhesive interactions that provide traction for cell migration. Here, we test whether the integrin, when engaged to an extracellular ligand and the cytoskeleton, adopts a specific orientation dictated by the direction of actin flow on the surface of migrating cells. We insert GFP into the rigid, ligand-binding head of the integrin, model with Rosetta the orientation of GFP and its transition dipole relative to the integrin head, and measure orientation with fluorescence polarization microscopy. Cytoskeleton and ligand-bound integrins orient in the same direction as retrograde actin flow with their cytoskeleton-binding β-subunits tilted by applied force. The measurements demonstrate that intracellular forces can orient cell surface integrins and support a molecular model of integrin activation by cytoskeletal force. Our results place atomic, Å-scale structures of cell surface receptors in the context of functional and cellular, μm-scale measurements.

Description: Supported by the Lillie Research award from Marine Biological Laboratory and the University of Chicago (C.M.W., T.A.S., S.M., T.T.), NIH 5R13GM085967 grant to the Physiology Course at Marine Biological Laboratory, HHMI Summer Institute at Marine Biological Laboratory (S.M.), NIH CA31798 (T.A.S., P.N., T.I.M.), NIH GM100160 (T.T., S.M.), NIH GM092802 (D.B., N.K.), NIH GM114274 (R.O., S.M.) National Center for Biological Sciences-Tata Institute of Fundamental Research (S.M., J.M.K.), J.C. Bose Fellowship and HFSP Grant RGP0027/2012 (S.M.), NHLBI Division of Intramural Research (C.M.W., V.S.), Swedish Research Council VR 524-2011-891 Fellowship (P.N.), Swedish Society for Medical Research SSMF Fellowship (P.N.), Crafoord Foundation (P.N.).

Description: The historical developments are reviewed that have led from a bottom-up responsibility initiative of concerned scientists to the emergence of a nationwide interdisciplinary Priority Program on the assessment of Climate Engineering (CE), funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG). Given the perceived lack of comprehensive and comparative appraisals of different CE methods, the Priority Program was designed to encompass both solar radiation management (SRM) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) ideas, and to cover the atmospheric, terrestrial and oceanic realm. First key findings obtained by the ongoing Priority Program are summarized and reveal that compared to earlier assessments, such as the 2009 Royal Society report, more detailed investigations tend to indicate less efficiency, lower effectiveness and often lower safety. Emerging research trends are discussed in the context of the recent Paris agreement to limit global warming to less than two degrees and the associated increasing reliance on negative emission technologies. Our results show then when deployed at scales large enough to have a significant impact on atmospheric CO 2 , even CDR methods such as afforestation – often perceived as ‘benign’ – can have substantial side effects and may raise severe ethical, legal and governance issues. We suppose that before being deployed at climatically relevant scales, any negative-emission or climate engineering method will require careful analysis of efficiency, effectiveness and undesired side effects.

Description: Since 1960's, India experiences a series of extreme drought and flood events during the summer months. The Humid Subtropical Climatic Zone (HSTC), which comprises the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) region of India, is highly vulnerable to the climatic extremities. This region is the home for ~40% of total population and yields ~50% of total agricultural production of India. We investigate the historical variation in dry/wet conditions and project the future changes in extreme events under two different scenarios of the CMIP5 models. Firstly, the model parameters i.e. precipitation ( P ) and temperature ( T ) are bias corrected with respect to observation data and finally 6 models are selected, which are in right phase with the observation for composite analysis. Next, we calculate the potential evapo-transpiration ( PET ) and the Standardized Potential Evapo-transpiration Index ( SPEI ) to characterize the extreme events. Both P and PET are projected to increase in the HSTC zone; however, both the wet and dry conditions demonstrate a persistent increase in future. In relative terms, P increases faster than PET along the Gangetic Plain region (wet condition) and decreases in the southern and eastern part of the region (dry condition). The mitigating effect (RCP4.5 scenario) of precipitation increase will be overridden by strengthened PET and extreme dry condition project markedly under RCP8.5 scenario. The features are consistent with the increase/ decrease in multi-model mean SPEI, consistent with the spatial pattern of P−PET . The area affected due to wet and dry events will be relatively higher under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively.

Description: In the 2000s, the rapid growth of CO 2 emitted in the production of exports from developing to developed countries, in which China accounted for the dominant share, led to concerns that climate polices had been undermined by international trade. Arguments on ‘carbon leakage’ and ‘competitiveness’ – which led to the refusal of the United States to ratify the Kyoto Protocol – put pressure on developing countries, especially China, to limit their emissions with Border Carbon Adjustments used as one threat. After strong growth in the early 2000s, emissions exported from developing to developed countries plateaued and could have even decreased since 2007. These changes were mainly due to China: In 2002–2007, China’s exported emissions grew by 827 MtCO 2 , amounting to almost all the 892 MtCO 2 total increase in emissions exported from developing to developed countries, while in 2007–2012, emissions exported from China decreased by 229 MtCO 2 , contributing to the total decrease of 172 MtCO 2 exported from developing to developed countries. We apply Structural Decomposition Analysis to find that, in addition to the diminishing effects of the global financial crisis, the slowdown and eventual plateau was largely explained by several potentially permanent changes in China: Decline in export volume growth, improvements in CO 2 intensity, and changes in production structure and the mix of exported products. We argue that growth in China’s exported emissions will not return to the high levels during the 2000s, therefore the arguments for climate polices focused on embodied emissions such as Border Carbon Adjustments are now weakened.

Description: We present new detail on how future SLR will modify nonlinear wave transformation processes, shoreline wave energy and wave driven flooding on atoll islands. Frequent and destructive wave inundation is a primary climate-change hazard that may render atoll islands uninhabitable in the near future. However, limited research has examined the physical vulnerability of atoll islands to future SLR and sparse information is available to implement process based coastal management on coral reef environments. We utilize a field-verified numerical model capable of resolving all nonlinear wave transformation processes to simulate how future SLR will modify wave dissipation and overtopping on Funafuti Atoll, Tuvalu, accounting for static and accretionary reef adjustment morphologies. Results show that future SLR coupled with a static reef morphology will not only increase shoreline wave energy and overtopping but will fundamental alter the spectral composition of shoreline energy by decreasing the contemporary influence of low frequency infragravity waves. ‘ Business-as-usual ' emissions (RCP 8.5) will result in annual wave overtopping on Funafuti Atoll by 2030, with overtopping at high tide under mean wave conditions occurring from 2090. Comparatively, vertical reef accretion in response to SLR will prevent any significant increase in shoreline wave energy and mitigate wave driven flooding volume by 72%. Our results provide the first quantitative assessment of how effective future reef accretion can be at mitigating SLR associated flooding on atoll islands and endorse active reef conservation and restoration for future coastal protection.

Description: ABSTRACT Risk perception research has played an influential role in supporting risk management and risk communication policy. Risk perception studies are popular across a range of disciplines in the social and natural sciences for a wide range of hazard types. Their results have helped to articulate the complex individual, relational, structural, and environmental factors influencing people's behavior. Connections between individual and collective behaviors and norms impacting global climate change, and consequently, local disaster risk, however, are infrequently included in disaster risk management. This paper presents results from two diverse and complementary European risk perception studies examining both natural and anthropogenic hazards. Research gaps and recommendations for developing more comprehensive risk management strategies are presented.

Description: Multi-sectoral partnerships (MSPs) form an increasingly popular and important part of the global climate and disaster risk governance landscape, but literature offers little critical investigation of this phenomenon. In particular it remains unclear how MSPs can support the transition from agenda-setting to implementation in response to multiple current and future pressures threatening the resilience of cities. Through the lens of the London Climate Change Partnership (LCCP) and drawing from other MSP examples, this paper investigates the scope for MSPs to enhance climate adaptation in an urban context. Our paper has two main aims: to expand understanding of the role of MSPs in the adaptation decision process in the context of the wider governance literature, and to shed some light on the complexities of transitioning through that process. To clarify the role of a MSP we propose a distinction between ‘first generation’ and ‘second generation’ MSPs, illustrating the progression from agenda-setting to implementation: ‘first generation’ MSPs are focused on agenda-setting and knowledge sharing in order to support decision-makers, while ‘second generation’ partnerships are aimed at implementing solutions. We consider this distinction from the perspective of the individual members and their perceptions, motivations and expectations. We find that the dynamic nature of urban adaptation with a shifting focus from initial agenda setting towards the implementation of actions presents challenges for existing MSPs, particularly such long-established ones like the LCCP. Our investigation shows that ‘first generation’ MSPs can play important roles in agenda-setting, but finds little evidence of ‘second generation’ MSPs achieving implementation.

Description: Improving society's ability to prepare for, respond to and recover from flooding requires integrated, anticipatory flood risk management (FRM) . However, most countries still focus their efforts on responding to flooding events if and when they occur rather than addressing their current and future vulnerability to flooding. Flood insurance is one mechanism that could a more ex-ante approach to risk by supporting risk reduction activities. This paper uses an adapted version of Easton's System Theory to investigate the role of insurance for FRM in Germany and England. We introduce an anticipatory FRM framework, which allows to consider flood insurance as part of a broader policy field. We analyse if and how flood insurance can catalyse a change towards a more anticipatory approach to FRM. In particular we consider insurance's role in influencing five key components of an anticipatory FRM: risk knowledge, prevention through better planning, property-level protection measures, structural protection and preparedness (for response). We find that in both countries FRM is still a reactive, event-driven process, while anticipatory FRM remains underdeveloped. However, collaboration between insurers and FRM decision-makers has already been successful, for example in improving risk knowledge and awareness, while in other areas insurance acts as a disincentive for more risk reduction action. In both countries there is evidence that insurance can play a significant role in encouraging anticipatory FRM, but this remains underutilized. Effective collaboration between insurers and government, should not be seen as a cost, but as an investment to secure future insurability through flood resilience.

Description: Just as carbon fueled the Industrial Revolution, nitrogen has fueled an Agricultural Revolution. The use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers and the cultivation of nitrogen-fixing crops both expanded exponentially during the last century, with most of the increase occurring after 1960. As a result, the current flux of reactive, or fixed, nitrogen compounds to the biosphere due to human activities is roughly equivalent to the total flux of fixed nitrogen from all natural sources, both on land masses and in the world's oceans. Natural fluxes of fixed nitrogen are subject to very large uncertainties, but anthropogenic production of reactive nitrogen has increased almost five-fold in the last half-century, and this rapid increase in anthropogenic fixed nitrogen has removed any uncertainty on the relative importance of anthropogenic fluxes to the natural budget. The increased use of nitrogen has been critical for increased crop yields and protein production needed to keep pace with the growing world population. However, similar to carbon, the release of fixed nitrogen into the natural environment is linked to adverse consequences at local, regional, and global scales. Anthropogenic contributions of fixed nitrogen continue to grow relative to the natural budget, with uncertain consequences.

Description: Land surface albedo is a key parameter controlling the local energy budget, and altering the albedo of built surfaces has been proposed as a tool to mitigate high near-surface temperatures in the Urban Heat Island. However, most research on albedo in urban landscapes has used coarse-resolution data, and few studies have attempted to relate albedo to other urban land cover characteristics. This study provides an empirical description of urban summertime albedo using 30 m remote sensing measurements in the metropolitan area around Boston, Massachusetts, relating albedo to metrics of impervious cover fraction, tree canopy coverage, population density, and land surface temperature (LST). At 30 m spatial resolution, median albedo over the study area (excluding open water) was 0.152 (0.112–0.187). Trends of lower albedo with increasing urbanization metrics and temperature emerged only after aggregating data to 500 m or the boundaries of individual towns, at which scale a −0.01 change in albedo was associated with a 29 (25–35)% decrease in canopy cover, a 27 (24–30)% increase in impervious cover, and an increase in population from 11–386 km −2 . The most intensively urbanized towns in the region showed albedo up to 0.035 lower than the least urbanized towns, and mean mid-morning LST 12.6 °C higher. Trends in albedo derived from 500 m MODIS measurements were comparable, but indicated a strong contribution of open water at this coarser resolution. These results reveal linkages between albedo and urban land cover character, and offer empirical context for climate resilient planning and future landscape functional changes with urbanization.

Description: In this study, we demonstrate skillful spring forecasts of detrended September Arctic sea ice extent using passive microwave observations of sea ice concentration (SIC) and melt onset (MO). We compare these to forecasts produced using data from a sophisticated melt pond model, and find similar to higher skill values, where the forecast skill is calculated relative to linear trend persistence. The MO forecasts shows the highest skill in March–May, while the SIC forecasts produce the highest skill in June–August, especially when the forecasts are evaluated over recent years (since 2008). The high MO forecast skill in early spring appears to be driven primarily by the presence and timing of open water anomalies, while the high SIC forecast skill appears to be driven by both open water and surface melt processes. Spatial maps of detrended anomalies highlight the drivers of the different forecasts, and enable us to understand regions of predictive importance. Correctly capturing sea ice state anomalies, along with changes in open water coverage appear to be key processes in skillfully forecasting summer Arctic sea ice.

Description: Society has set ambitious targets for stabilizing mean global temperature. To attain these targets, it will have to reduce CO 2 emissions to near zero by mid-century and subsequently remove CO 2 from the atmosphere during the latter half of the century. There is a recognized need to develop technologies for CO 2 removal; however, attempts to develop direct air capture systems have faced both energetic and financial constraints. Recently, BioEnergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) has emerged as a leading candidate for removing CO 2 from the atmosphere. However, BECCS can have negative consequences on land, nutrient, and water use as well as biodiversity and food production. Here, we describe an alternative approach based on the large-scale industrial production of marine microalgae. When cultivated with proper attention to power, carbon, and nutrient sources, microalgae can be processed to produce a variety of biopetroleum products, including carbon neutral biofuels for the transportation sector and long-lived, potentially carbon-negative construction materials for the built environment. In addition to these direct roles in mitigating and potentially reversing the effects of fossil CO 2 emissions, microalgae can also play an important indirect role. Because microalgae exhibit much higher primary production rates than terrestrial plants, they require much less land area to produce an equivalent amount of bioenergy and/or food. On a global scale, the avoided emissions resulting from displacement of conventional agriculture may exceed the benefits of microalgae biofuels in achieving climate stabilization goals.

Description: Biome-specific soil respiration (Rs) has important yet different roles in both the carbon cycle and climate change from regional to global scales. To date, no comparable studies related to global biome-specific Rs have been conducted applying comprehensive global Rs databases. The goal of this study was to develop artificial neural network (ANN) models capable of spatially estimating global Rs and to evaluate the effects of interannual climate variations on 10 major biomes. We used 1,976 annual Rs field records extracted from global Rs literature to train and test the ANN models. We determined that the best ANN model for predicting biome-specific global annual Rs was the one that applied mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP) and biome type as inputs ( r 2  = 0.60). The ANN models reported an average global Rs of 93.3 ± 6.1 Pg C year −1 from 1960 to 2012 and an increasing trend in average global annual Rs of 0.04 Pg C year −1 . Estimated annual Rs increased with increases in MAT and MAP in cropland, boreal forest, grassland, shrubland and wetland biomes. Additionally, estimated annual Rs decreased with increases in MAT and increased with increases in MAP in desert and tundra biomes, and only significantly decreased with increases in MAT ( r 2  = 0.87) in the savannah biome. The developed biome-specific global Rs database for global land and soil carbon models will aid in understanding the mechanisms underlying variations in soil carbon dynamics and in quantifying uncertainty in the global soil carbon cycle.

Description: ABSTRACT Monitoring is science keeping our thumb on the pulse of the environment to detect any changes of concern for societies. Basic science is the question-driven search for fundamental processes and mechanisms. Given the firm root of monitoring in human interests and needs, basic sciences have often been regarded as scientifically “purer” – particularly within university-based research communities. We argue that the dichotomy between “research” and “monitoring” is an artificial one, and that this artificial split clouds the definition of scientific goals and leads to suboptimal use of resources. We claim that the synergy between the two scientific approaches is well distilled by science conducted under extreme logistic constraints, when scientists are forced to take full advantage of both the data and the infrastructure available. In evidence of this view, we present our experiences from two decades of uniting research and monitoring at the remote research facility Zackenberg in High Arctic Greenland. For this site, we show how the combination of insights from monitoring with the mechanistic understanding obtained from basic research has yielded the most complete understanding of the system – to the benefit of all, and as an example to follow. We therefore urge scientists from across the continuum from monitoring to research to come together, to disregard old division lines, and to work together to expose a comprehensive picture of ecosystem change and its consequences.

Description: Although recent decades have been the warmest since 1850, and global mean temperatures during 2015 and 2016 beat all instrumental records, the rate of increase in global surface air temperature (GSAT) significantly decreased at the beginning of the 21st Century. In this context, we examine the roles of ice melting and associated increase in sea-water mass, both of which significantly increased at the same time as GSAT decreased. Specifically, we show that (1) the slowdown of the rate of increase in GSAT between the specific periods 1992–2001 and 2002–2011 exists in all three climate records analyzed and is statistically significant at the 5% level amounting between 0.029 and 0. 036 °C/yr and leaving an energy of 14.8 to 18.4 10 19  J/yr available; (2) the increase of the atmosphere-related ice melt between these two periods amounts to 316 Gt/yr which requires 10.5 10 19  J/yr, i.e. between 57% and 71 % of the energy left by the slowdown; and (3) the energy budget shows therefore that the heat required to melt this additional 316 Gt/yr of ice is of the same order as the energy needed to warm the atmosphere during the decade 2002–2011 as much as during the previous one, suggesting a redistribution of heat within the atmosphere-cryosphere system.

Description: Climate change is a major driver of vegetation activity but its complex ecological relationships impede research efforts. In this study, the spatial distribution and dynamic characteristics of climate change effects on vegetation activity in China from the 1980s to the 2010s and from 2021 to 2050 were investigated using a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The GWR model was based on combined datasets of satellite vegetation index, climate observation and projection, and future vegetation productivity simulation. Our results revealed that the significantly positive precipitation-vegetation relationship was and will be mostly distributed in North China. However, the regions with temperature-dominated distribution of vegetation activity were and will be mainly located in South China. Due to the varying climate features and vegetation cover, the spatial correlation between vegetation activity and climate change may be altered. There will be different dominant climatic factors for vegetation activity distribution in some regions such as Northwest China, and even opposite correlations in Northeast China. Additionally, the response of vegetation activity to precipitation will move southward in the next three decades. In contrast, although the high warming rate will restrain the vegetation activity, precipitation variability could modify hydrothermal conditions for vegetation activity. This observation is exemplified in the projected future enhancement of vegetation activity in the Tibetan Plateau and weakened vegetation activity in East and Middle China. Furthermore, the vegetation in most parts of North China may adapt to an arid environment, whereas in many southern areas, vegetation will be repressed by water shortage in the future.

Description: We examine some unexpected epistemological conflicts that arise at the interfaces between ecological science, the ecosystem services framework, policy and industry. We use an example from our own research to motivate and illustrate our main arguments, while also reviewing standard approaches to ecological science using the ecosystem services framework. While we agree that the ecosystem services framework has benefits in its industrial applications because it may force economic decision makers to consider a broader range of costs and benefits than they would do otherwise, we find that many alignments of ecology with the ecosystem services framework are asking questions that are irrelevant to real-world applications, and generating data that does not serve real-world applications. We attempt to clarify why these problems arise and how to avoid them. We urge fellow ecologists to reflect on the kind of research that can lead to both scientific advances and applied relevance to society. In our view, traditional empirical approaches at landscape scales or with place-based emphases are necessary to provide applied knowledge for problem solving, which is needed once decision makers identify risks to ecosystem services. We conclude that the ecosystem services framework is a good policy tool when applied to decision-making contexts, but not a good theory either of social valuation or ecological interactions, and should not be treated as one.

Description: Because of its low level of energy consumption and the small scale of its industrial development, the Tibet Autonomous Region has historically been excluded from China's reported energy statistics, including those regarding CO 2 emissions. In this paper, we estimate Tibet's energy consumption using limited online documents, and we calculate the 2014 energy-related and process-related CO 2 emissions of Tibet and its seven prefecture-level administrative divisions for the first time. Our results show that 5.52 million tons of CO 2 were emitted in Tibet in 2014; 33% of these emissions are associated with cement production. Tibet's emissions per capita amounted to 1.74 tons in 2014, which is substantially lower than the national average, although Tibet's emission intensity is relatively high at 0.60 tons per thousand yuan in 2014. Among Tibet's seven prefecture-level administrative divisions, Lhasa City and Shannan Region are the two largest CO 2 contributors and have the highest per capita emissions and emission intensities. The Nagqu and Nyingchi regions emit little CO 2 due to their farming/pasturing-dominated economies. This quantitative measure of Tibet's regional CO 2 emissions provides solid data support for Tibet's actions on climate change and emission reductions.

Description: Evapotranspiration is a key variable in hydrology, playing an important role in water and energy balance of the land surface. There has been speculation on the direction of trend in potential and actual evapotranspiration (PET and AET) resulting from rising global temperatures, in both observational and derived records representing the historical climate. In this study, PET and AET trends of 8 different global model datasets where analyzed over two time periods: from 2003 to 2012 (short term) and from 1980 to 2012 (multi-decadal), to identify regions where the trends coincide or differ and to study the reasons behind these changes. The short-term analysis showed considerable uncertainty exists on the detection and direction of significant trends on both PET and AET. There was little agreement amongst the datasets about the direction of the global trends. The multi-decadal study showed much more consistent trends throughout the datasets, particularly in relation to positive significant PET trends. During this period, the global PET mean increased 0.091mm/month/year, while the global AET rose at 0.045 mm/month/year. Much of the opposite PET/AET trends can be attributed to changes in the precipitation. Most of the regions which present these trends are water-limited and present strong correlations between AET and precipitation trends. Some energy-limited regions showed an increasing gap between PET and AET, suggesting the influence of additional variables controlling AET.

Description: As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, i.e. consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socio-economic and hydro-climatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, e.g. via raised risk awareness, preparedness and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur. Index Terms 1821 Floods (4303); 4327 Resilience; 4328 Risk; 4330 Vulnerability; 4339 Disaster mitigation

Description: Global multi-model wave climate projections are obtained at 1.0°x1.0° scale from 30 CMIP5 Global Climate Model (GCM) realizations. A semi-supervised weather-typing approach based on a characterization of the ocean wave generation areas and the historical wave information from the recent GOW2 database are used to train the statistical model. This framework is also applied to obtain high resolution projections of coastal wave climate and coastal impacts as port operability and coastal flooding. Regional projections are estimated using the collection of weather types at spacing of 1.0°. This assumption is feasible because the predictor is defined based on the wave generation area and the classification is guided by the local wave climate. The assessment of future changes in coastal impacts is based on direct downscaling of indicators defined by empirical formulations (total water level for coastal flooding and number of hours per year with overtopping for port operability). Global multi-model projections of the significant wave height and peak period are consistent with changes obtained in previous studies. Statistical confidence of expected changes is obtained due to the large number of GCMs to construct the ensemble. The proposed methodology is proved to be flexible to project wave climate at different spatial scales. Regional changes of additional variables as wave direction or other statistics can be estimated from the future empirical distribution with extreme values restricted to high percentiles (i.e., 95th, 99th percentiles). The statistical framework can also be applied to evaluate regional coastal impacts integrating changes in storminess and sea level rise.

Description: Large parts of tropical coastlines are influenced by the presence of reefs that shape its coastline. Wave attenuation crossing reefs as they approach the coast results in accretionary coastal features developed in its shadow zones. With the aim of assessing the level of wave exposure of the coastline under different sea-level rise scenarios, numerical modeling experiments have been designed considering a coastline segment of approximately 450 km in northeast Brazil. Results show the distribution of wave power along the area of interest, with higher values being found in areas without reefs. However, when considering sea-level rise scenarios, it is behind the reefs where the maximum differences in wave power are observed. The increase in the free surface over the reef structures as a result of rising sea level reduces the wave attenuation effects caused by these structures. Thus, the waves hit the shore with greater force in the shadow zone protected by the reef. Here we demonstrate that regions within the reef shadow zones are most strongly affected by sea-level rise with up to a 90% increase in the wave power, which will lead to increase in sediment transport and erosion processes. Such processes indicate a trend toward coastline flattening and alignment in response to less effective shadow zones.

Description: Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research, however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirically-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, USA, for the period 2001–2100. Land-use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km 2  yr −1 ; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%, however the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Description: Wet bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) accounts for the effect of environmental temperature and humidity on thermal comfort, and can be directly related to the ability of the human body to dissipate excess metabolic heat and thus avoid heat stress. Using WBGT as a measure of environmental conditions conducive to heat stress, we show that anthropogenic influence has very substantially increased the likelihood of extreme high summer mean WBGT in northern hemispheric land areas relative to the climate that would have prevailed in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. We estimate that the likelihood of summer mean WGBT exceeding the observed historical record value has increased by a factor of at least 70 at regional scales due to anthropogenic influence on the climate. We further estimate that, in most northern hemispheric regions, these changes in the likelihood of extreme summer mean WBGT are roughly an order of magnitude larger than the corresponding changes in the likelihood of extreme hot summers as simply measured by surface air temperature. Projections of future summer mean WBGT under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario that are constrained by observations indicate that by 2030s at least 50% of the summers will have mean WBGT higher than the observed historical record value in all the analyzed regions, and that this frequency of occurrence will increase to 95% by mid-century.

Description: Global renewable electricity generation capacity has rapidly increased in the past decade. Increasing the sustainability of electricity generation and the market share of solar photovoltaics (PV) will require continued cost reductions or higher efficiencies. Wavelength-Selective Photovoltaic Systems (WSPVs) combine luminescent solar cell technology with conventional Silicon-based PV, thereby increasing efficiency and lowering the cost of electricity generation. WSPVs absorb some of the blue and green wavelengths of the solar spectrum but transmit the remaining wavelengths that can be utilized by photosynthesis for plants growing below. WSPVs are ideal for integrating electricity generation with glasshouse production, but it is not clear how they may affect plant development and physiological processes. The effects of tomato photosynthesis under WSPVs showed a small decrease in water use, whereas there were minimal effects on the number and fresh weight of fruit for a number of commercial species. Although more research is required on the impacts of WSPVs, they are a promising technology for greater integration of distributed electricity generation with food production operations, for reducing water loss in crops grown in controlled environments, as building-integrated solar facilities, or as alternatives to high-impact PV for energy generation over agricultural or natural ecosystems.

Description: The coastline of Kenya already experiences effects of climate change, adding to existing pressures such as urbanization. Integrated coastal management (ICM) is increasingly recognized as a key policy response to deal with the multiple challenges facing coastal zones, including climate change. It can create an enabling governance environment for effective local action on climate change by facilitating a structured approach to dealing with coastal issues. It encompasses the actions of a wide range of actors, including local governments close to people and their activities affected by climate change. Functioning ICM also offers opportunities for reducing risks and building resilience. This paper applied a modified Capitals Approach Framework (CAF), consisting of five “capitals”, to assess the status of county government capacity to respond to climate change within the context of coastal governance in three County governments in Kenya. The baseline was defined in terms of governance relating to the implementation of the interrelated policy systems of ICM and coastal climate change adaptation (CCA). The CAF framework provided a systematic approach to building a governance baseline against which to assess the progress of county governments in responding to climate change. It identified gaps in human capacity, financial resource allocation to adaptation and access to climate change information. Further, it showed that having well-developed institutions, including regulatory frameworks at the national level can facilitate but does not automatically enable adaptation at the county level.

Description: Changing frequencies of extreme weather events and shifting fire seasons call for enhanced capability to forecast where and when forested landscapes switch from a non-flammable (i.e. wet fuel) state to the highly flammable (i.e. dry fuel) state required for catastrophic forest fires. Current forest fire danger indices used in Europe, North America and Australia rate potential fire behaviour by combining numerical indices of fuel moisture content, potential rate of fire spread, and fire intensity. These numerical rating systems lack the physical basis required to reliably quantify forest flammability outside the environments of their development or under novel climate conditions. Here, we argue that exceedance of critical forest flammability thresholds is a prerequisite for major forest fires and therefore early warning systems should be based on a reliable prediction of fuel moisture content plus a regionally calibrated model of how forest fire activity responds to variation in fuel moisture content. We demonstrate the potential of this approach through a case study in Portugal. We use a physically-based fuel moisture model with historical weather and fire records to identify critical fuel moisture thresholds for forest fire activity and then show that the catastrophic June 2017 forest fires in central Portugal erupted shortly after fuels in the region dried out to historically unprecedented levels.

Description: Sustainable development goals (SDGs) have set the 2030 agenda to transform our world by tackling multiple challenges humankind is facing to ensure well-being, economic prosperity, and environmental protection. In contrast to conventional development agendas focusing on a restricted set of dimensions, the SDGs provide a holistic and multidimensional view on development. Hence, interactions among the SDGs may cause diverging results. To analyze the SDG interactions we systematize the identification of synergies and trade-offs using official SDG indicator data for 227 countries. A significant positive correlation between a pair of SDG indicators is classified as a synergy while a significant negative correlation is classified as a trade-off . We rank synergies and trade-offs between SDGs pairs on global and country scales in order to identify the most frequent SDG interactions. For a given SDG, positive correlations between indicator pairs were found to outweigh the negative ones in most countries. Among SDGs the positive and negative correlations between indicator pairs allowed for the identification of particular global patterns. SDG 1 ( No poverty ) has synergetic relationship with most of the other goals, whereas SDG 12 ( Responsible consumption and production ) is the goal most commonly associated with trade-offs. The attainment of the SDG agenda will greatly depend on whether the identified synergies among the goals can be leveraged. In addition, the highlighted trade-offs, which constitute obstacles in achieving the SDGs, need to be negotiated and made structurally nonobstructive by deeper changes in the current strategies.

Description: The potential of Coastal Ocean Alkalinization (COA), a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) climate engineering strategy that chemically increases ocean carbon uptake and storage, is investigated with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. The CDR potential and possible environmental side effects are estimated for various COA deployment scenarios, assuming olivine as the alkalinity source in ice-free coastal waters (about 8.6% of the global ocean's surface area), with dissolution rates being a function of grain size, ambient seawater temperature and pH. Our results indicate that for a large-enough olivine deployment of small-enough grain sizes (10 μm), atmospheric CO 2 could be reduced by more than 800 GtC by the year 2100. However, COA with coarse olivine grains (1000 μm) has little CO 2 sequestration potential on this time scale. Ambitious CDR with fine olivine grains would increase coastal aragonite saturation Ω to levels well beyond those that are currently observed. When imposing upper limits for aragonite saturation levels (Ω lim ) in the grid boxes subject to COA (Ω lim = 3.4 and 9 chosen as examples), COA still has the potential to reduce atmospheric CO 2 by 265 GtC (Ω lim =3.4) to 790 GtC (Ω lim =9) and increase ocean carbon storage by 290 Gt (Ω lim =3.4) to 913 Gt (Ω lim =9) by year 2100.

Description: Communication of climate change (CC) risks is challenging, in particular if global-scale spatially resolved quantitative information is to be conveyed. Typically, visualization of CC risks, which arise from the combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, is confined to showing only the hazards in the form of global thematic maps. This paper explores the potential of contiguous value-by-area cartograms, i.e. distorted density-equalizing maps, for improving communication of CC risks and the countries’ differentiated responsibilities for CC. Two global-scale cartogram sets visualize, as an example, groundwater-related CC risks in 0.5° grid cells, another one the correlation of (cumulative) fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions with the countries’ population and gross domestic product. Viewers of the latter set visually recognize the lack of global equity and that the countries’ wealth has been built on harmful emissions. I recommend that CC risks are communicated by bivariate gridded cartograms showing the hazard in color and population, or a combination of population and a vulnerability indicator, by distortion of grid cells. Gridded cartograms are also appropriate for visualizing the availability of natural resources to humans. For communicating complex information, sets of cartograms should be carefully designed instead of presenting single cartograms. Inclusion of a conventionally-distorted map enhances the viewers’ capability to take up the information represented by distortion. Empirical studies about the capability of global cartograms to convey complex information and to trigger moral emotions should be conducted, with a special focus on risk communication.

Description: Increase of forest areas has the potential to increase the terrestrial carbon (C) sink. However, the efficiency for C sequestration depends on the availability of nutrients such as nitrogen (N), which is affected by climatic conditions and management practices. In this study, I analyze how N limitation affects C sequestration of afforestation and how it is influenced by individual climate variables, increased harvest, and fertilizer application. To this end, JSBACH, the land component of the Earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology is applied in idealized simulation experiments. In those simulations, large-scale afforestation increases the terrestrial C sink in the 21st century by around 100 Pg C compared to a business as usual land-use scenario. N limitation reduces C sequestration roughly by the same amount. The relevance of compensating effects of uptake and release of carbon dioxide by plant productivity and soil decomposition, respectively, gets obvious from the simulations. N limitation of both fluxes compensates particularly in the tropics. Increased mineralization under global warming triggers forest expansion, which otherwise is restricted by N availability. Due to compensating higher plant productivity and soil respiration, the global net effect of warming for C sequestration is however rather small. Fertilizer application and increased harvest enhance C sequestration as well as boreal expansion. The additional C sequestration achieved by fertilizer application is offset to a large part by additional emissions of nitrous oxide.

Description: Quantifying the annual flux of CO 2 (carbon dioxide) and equivalent emissions to the atmosphere is critical for both policy decisions and modeling of future climate change. Given the importance of greenhouse gas emissions to climate change and a recognized mismatch between sources and sinks (e.g., Liu & Dreybrodt , 2015), it is important to quantify these parameters. A significant and previously unrecognized CO 2 contribution arises from groundwater depletion (net removal from storage). The average annual 1.7 MMT (million metric tons) CO 2 released in the United States from this source is greater than approximately one third of the 23 major sources reported by the US EPA (United States Environmental Protection Agency) to the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; US EPA, ).

Description: The aim of this study is to examine projections of extreme temperatures over the continental United States (CONUS) for the 21 st century using an ensemble of high spatial resolution dynamically downscaled model simulations with different boundary conditions. The downscaling uses the Weather Research and Forecast model at a spatial resolution of 12 km along with outputs from three different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate models that provide boundary conditions under two different future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration trajectories. The results from two decadal-length time slices (2045-2054 and 2085-2094) are compared with a historical decade (1995-2004). Probability density functions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are analyzed over seven climatologically cohesive regions of the CONUS. The impacts of different boundary conditions as well as future GHG concentrations on extreme events such as heat waves and days with temperature higher than 95°F are also investigated. The results show that the intensity of extreme warm temperature in future summer is significantly increased, while the frequency of extreme cold temperature in future winter decreases. The distribution of summer daily maximum temperature experiences a significant warm-side shift and increased variability, while the distribution of winter daily minimum temperature is projected to have a less significant warm-side shift with decreased variability. Using “business-as-usual” scenario, 5-day heat waves are projected to occur at least 5-10 times per year in most CONUS and ≥95°F days will increase by 1-2 months by the end of the century.

Description: With minimal moral hazard and adverse selection, weather index insurance promises financial resilience to farmers struck by harsh weather conditions through swift compensation at affordable premium. Despite these advantages, the very nature of indexing gives rise to production basis risk as the selected weather indexes do not sufficiently correspond to actual damages. To address this problem, we develop a stochastic yield model, built upon a stochastic soil moisture model driven by marked Poisson rainfall. Our analysis shows that even under similar temperature and rainfall amount, yields can differ significantly; this was empirically supported by a two-year field experiment in which rain-fed maize was grown under very similar total rainfall amounts. Here, the year with more intense, less frequent rainfall produces a better yield—a rare counter evidence to most climate change projections. Through a stochastic yield model, we demonstrate the crucial roles of rainfall intensity and frequency in determining the yield. Importantly, the model allows us to compute rainfall pattern-related basis risk inherent in cumulative rain index insurance. The model results and a case study herein clearly show that total rainfall is a poor indicator of yield, imposing unnecessary production basis risk on farmers and false-positive payouts on insurers. Incorporating rainfall intensity and frequency in the design of rain index insurance can offer farmers better protection, while maintaining the attractive features of the weather index insurance and thus fulfilling its promise of financial resilience.

Description: Extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia has exhibited a weakening trend in the recent decade. Extratropical cyclones bring precipitation and hence supply fresh water for winter crops in the mid- and high-latitude regions of Eurasia. Any changes in extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia in the future may have a critical impact on winter agriculture and the economies of affected communities. However, potential future changes in regional storm activity over Eurasia have not been studied in detail. Therefore, in this study, we investigate anticipated changes in extratropical storm activity by the end of the century through a detailed examination of the historical and future emission scenarios from six different models from CMIP5. A statistical analysis of different parameters of storm activity using a storm identification and tracking algorithm reveals a decrease in the number of storms over mid-latitude regions. However, intense storms with longer duration are projected over high latitude Eurasia. A further examination of the physical mechanism for these changes reveals that a decrease in the meridional temperature gradient and a weakening of the vertical wind shear over the mid-latitudes are responsible for these expected changes in storm activity.

Description: Impacts of climate change relating to public health are often determined by multiple climate variables. The health-related metrics combining high-temperature and relative humidity are most concerned. Temperatures, relative humidity and relationship among them are investigated here for a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts over China. A projection of combined temperatures and humidity through the PRECIS model is addressed. The PRECIS model's skill in reproducing the historical climate over China was first gauged through validating its historical simulation with the observation dataset in terms of the two contributing variables. With good results of validation, a plausible range of combined temperatures and relative humidity were generated under RCPs. The results suggested that the annual mean temperature of China will increase up to 6 °C at the end of 21 st century. Opposite to the significantly change in the temperature, the maximum magnitude of changes in relative humidity is only 8% from the value in the baseline period. The dew point temperature is projected to be 14.9 °C (within the comfortable interval) over the whole nation under high radiative forcing scenario at the end of this century. Therefore, the combination effects of high-temperatures and relative humidity are substantially smaller than generally anticipated for China. Even though the impact-relevant metric like the dew point temperature is not projected as bad as the generally anticipated, we found that the frequency of high-temperature extremes increases up to 40% and the duration increases up to 150% in China. China is still expected to have more number of extremely hot days, more frequent high-temperature extremes, and longer duration of warm spell than before. Regionally, South China has the smallest changes in the mean, maximum and minimum temperatures while the largest increases in all five high-temperature indices. Consequently, the climate over South China for two future periods will be changing more drastically than the baseline period. Extra cautions need to be given to South China in the future.

Description: Record-breaking temperatures attract attention from the media, so understanding how and why the rate of record-breaking is changing may be useful in communicating the effects of climate change. A simple methodology designed for estimating the anthropogenic influence on rates of record-breaking in a given timeseries is proposed here. The frequency of hot and cold record-breaking temperature occurrences is shown to be changing due to the anthropogenic influence on the climate. Using ensembles of model simulations with and without human-induced forcings, it is demonstrated that the effect of climate change on global record-breaking temperatures can be detected as far back as the 1930s. On local scales, a climate change signal is detected more recently at most locations. The anthropogenic influence on the increased occurrence of hot record-breaking temperatures is clearer than it is for the decreased occurrence of cold records. The approach proposed here could be applied in rapid attribution studies of record extremes to quantify the influence of climate change on the rate of record-breaking in addition to the climate anomaly being studied. This application is demonstrated for the global temperature record of 2016 and the Central England temperature record in 2014.

Description: Climate observations are needed to address a large range of important societal issues including sea level rise, droughts, floods, extreme heat events, food security, and fresh water availability in the coming decades. Past, targeted investments in specific climate questions have resulted in tremendous improvements in issues important to human health, security, and infrastructure. However, the current climate observing system was not planned in a comprehensive, focused manner required to adequately address the full range of climate needs. A potential approach to planning the observing system of the future is presented in this paper. First, this paper proposes that priority be given to the most critical needs as identified within the World Climate Research Program as Grand Challenges. These currently include seven important topics: Melting Ice and Global Consequences; Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity; Carbon Feedbacks in the Climate System; Understanding and Predicting Weather and Climate Extremes; Water for the Food Baskets of the World; Regional Sea-Level Change and Coastal Impacts; and Near-term Climate Prediction. For each Grand Challenge, observations are needed for long-term monitoring, process studies and forecasting capabilities. Second, objective evaluations of proposed observing systems, including satellites, ground-based and in situ observations as well as potentially new, unidentified observational approaches, can quantify the ability to address these climate priorities. And third, investments in effective climate observations will be economically important as they will offer a magnified return on investment that justifies a far greater development of observations to serve society's needs.

Description: Thank you 2016 Earth's Future reviewers! As the journal completed its third full year in 2016 (in 2013 only one monthly issue was posted) I am pleased to report that submissions were up significantly. In 2016 we received 159 manuscripts, of which ~120 were sent for external review. The acceptance rate of the journal stayed around the 50% mark, reflecting the high expectations of our reviewers and editors.

Description: South-east Spain is a drought prone area, characterized by climate variability and water scarcity. The Jucar River Basin, located in Eastern Spain, has suffered many historical droughts with significant socio-economic impacts. For nearly a hundred years, the institutional and non-institutional strategies to cope with droughts have been successful through the development of institutions and partnerships for drought management including multiple actors. In this paper, we show how the creation and institutionalisation of Multi-Sector Partnerships has supported the development of an efficient drought management. Furthermore, we analyse the performance of one of the suggested instruments by the partnership related to drought management in the basin. Two methodologies are used for these purposes. On the one hand, the Capital Approach Framework to analyse the effectiveness of the governance processes in a particular partnership (Permanent Drought Commission), which aims to highlight the governance strength and weakness of the Multi-Sector Partnership for enhancing drought management in the Jucar River Basin. Through a dynamic analysis of the changes that the partnership has undergone over time to successfully deal with droughts, it is demonstrated its effectiveness on drought management. On the other hand, an econometric approach is used to analyse the economic efficiency of the emergency drought wells as one of the key drought mitigation measures suggested by the Permanent Drought Commission and implemented. The results demonstrate the potential and efficiency of applying drought wells as mitigation measures (significant reduction of economic losses, around 50 M€ during the drought period, 2005 to 2008).

Description: Massive near-term greenhouse gas emissions reduction is a precondition for staying “well below 2°C” global warming as envisaged by the Paris Agreement. Furthermore, extensive terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) through managed biomass growth and subsequent carbon capture and storage is required to avoid temperature “overshoot” in most pertinent scenarios. Here, we address two major issues: First, we calculate the extent of tCDR required to “repair” delayed or insufficient emissions reduction policies unable to prevent global mean temperature rise of 2.5°C or even 4.5°C above pre-industrial level. Our results show that those tCDR measures are unable to counteract “business-as-usual” emissions without eliminating virtually all natural ecosystems. Even if considerable (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 [RCP4.5]) emissions reductions are assumed, tCDR with 50% storage efficiency requires 〉1.1 Gha of the most productive agricultural areas or the elimination of 〉50% of natural forests. In addition, 〉100 MtN/yr fertilizers would be needed to remove the roughly 320 GtC foreseen in these scenarios. Such interventions would severely compromise food production and/or biosphere functioning. Second, we reanalyze the requirements for achieving the 160–190 GtC tCDR that would complement strong mitigation action (RCP2.6) in order to avoid 2°C overshoot anytime. We find that a combination of high irrigation water input and/or more efficient conversion to stored carbon is necessary. In the face of severe trade-offs with society and the biosphere, we conclude that large-scale tCDR is not a viable alternative to aggressive emissions reduction. However, we argue that tCDR might serve as a valuable “supporting actor” for strong mitigation if sustainable schemes are established immediately.

Description: Year-to-year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding of weather-induced crop-yield variability is essential for adaptation strategies, so far it has only been addressed by empirical models. Here we provide conservative estimates of the fraction of reported national yield variabilities that can be attributed to weather by state-of-the-art, process-based crop model simulations. We find that observed weather variations can explain more than 50% of the variability in wheat yields in Australia, Canada, Spain, Hungary, and Romania. For maize, weather sensitivities exceed 50% in seven countries, including the US. The explained variance exceeds 50% for rice in Japan and South Korea and for soy in Argentina. Avoiding water stress by simulating yields assuming full irrigation shows that water limitation is a major driver of the observed variations in most of these countries. Identifying the mechanisms leading to crop-yield fluctuations is not only fundamental for dampening fluctuations, but is also important in the context of the debate on the attribution of loss and damage to climate change. Since process-based crop models not only account for weather influences on crop yields, but also represent human-management measures, they could become essential tools for differentiating these drivers, and for exploring options to reduce future yield fluctuations.

Description: This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30-40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6-2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21 st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to GDP growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21 st century.

Description: ABSTRACT Recent USGS water use report suggests that increasing water-use efficiency could mitigate the supply-and-demand imbalance arising from changing climate and growing population. However, this rich data has not been analyzed to understand the underlying patterns, nor have been investigated to identify the factors contributing to this increased efficiency. A national-scale synthesis of public supply withdrawals (“withdrawals”) reveals a strong North–south gradient in public supply water use with the increasing population in the South contributing to increased withdrawal. Contrastingly, a reverse South–north gradient exists in per-capita withdrawals (“efficiency”), with northern states consistently improving the efficiency, while the southern states’ efficiency declined. Our analyses of spatial patterns of per-capita withdrawals further demonstrate that urban counties exhibit improved efficiency over rural counties. Improved efficiency is also demonstrated over high-income and well-educated counties. Given the potential implications of the findings in developing long-term water conservation measures (i.e., increasing block rates), we argue the need for frequent updates, perhaps monthly to annual, of water use data for identifying effective strategies that control the water-use efficiency in various geographic settings under a changing climate.

Description: Future extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along European coasts will be strongly impacted by global warming. Yet, comprehensive projections of ESL that include mean sea level (MSL), tides, waves, and storm surges do not exist. Here, we show changes in all components of ESLs until 2100 in view of climate change. We find that by the end of this century, the 100-year ESL along Europe's coastlines is on average projected to increase by 57 cm for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and 81 cm for RCP8.5. The North Sea region is projected to face the highest increase in ESLs, amounting to nearly 1 m under RCP8.5 by 2100, followed by the Baltic Sea and Atlantic coasts of the UK and Ireland. Relative sea level rise (RSLR) is shown to be the main driver of the projected rise in ESL, with increasing dominance toward the end of the century and for the high-concentration pathway. Changes in storm surges and waves enhance the effects of RSLR along the majority of northern European coasts, locally with contributions up to 40%. In southern Europe, episodic extreme events tend to stay stable, except along the Portuguese coast and the Gulf of Cadiz where reductions in surge and wave extremes offset RSLR by 20–30%. By the end of this century, 5 million Europeans currently under threat of a 100-year ESL could be annually at risk from coastal flooding under high-end warming. The presented dataset is available through this link: http://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/LISCOAST . Plain Language Summary Future extreme sea levels and flood risk along European coasts will be strongly impacted by global warming. Here, we show changes in all acting components, i.e., sea level rise, tides, waves, and storm surges, until 2100 in view of climate change. We find that by the end of this century the 100-year event along Europe will on average increase between 57 and 81 cm. The North Sea region is projected to face the highest increase, amounting to nearly 1 m under a high emission scenario by 2100, followed by the Baltic Sea and Atlantic coasts of the UK and Ireland. Sea level rise is the main driver of the changes, but intensified climate extremes along most of northern Europe can have significant local effects. Little changes in climate extremes are shown along southern Europe, with the exception of a projected decrease along the Portuguese coast and the Gulf of Cadiz, offseting sea level rise by 20–30%. By the end of this century, 5 million Europeans currently under threat of a 100-year coastal flood event could be annually at risk from coastal flooding under high-end warming.

Description: We present maize production in sub-Saharan Africa as a case study in the exploration of how uncertainties in global climate change, as reflected in projections from a range of climate model ensembles, influence climate impact assessments for agriculture. The crop model AquaCrop-OS (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) was modified to run on a 2x2 degree grid and coupled to 122 climate model projections from multi-model ensembles for three emission scenarios (CMIP3 SRES A1B and CMIP5 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) as well as two ‘within-model’ ensembles (NCAR CCSM3 and ECHAM5 MPI-OM) designed to capture internal variability (i.e., uncertainty due to chaos in the climate system). In spite of high uncertainty, most notably in the high-producing semiarid zones, we observed robust regional and sub-regional trends across all ensembles. In agreement with previous work, we project widespread yield losses in the Sahel region and Southern Africa, resilience in Central Africa, and sub-regional increases in East Africa and at the southern tip of the continent. Spatial patterns of yield losses corresponded with spatial patterns of aridity increases, which were explicitly evaluated. Internal variability was a major source of uncertainty in both within-model and between-model ensembles and explained the majority of the spatial distribution of uncertainty in yield projections. Projected climate change impacts on maize production in different regions and nations ranged from near-zero or positive (upper quartile estimates) to substantially negative (lower quartile estimates), highlighting a need for risk management strategies that are adaptive and robust to uncertainty.

Description: ‘Bottom-up’ field-based, crop-hydrological models are used to estimate food production and irrigation water extractions under multiple scenarios of water and nitrogen use and crop yield improvement from 2010 to 2050 for 19 countries. The results show: (1) a food deficit before 2050 under a worst case climate change scenario in terms of annual crop yield improvement; (2) substantial water deficits, as a result of irrigation, for major food-producing countries that will prevent these nations from meeting their domestic food requirements in the absence of investments in water infrastructure or food imports; and (3) a plateau in terms of crop food production associated with increased water extractions given no further increase in the current area of irrigated agriculture. Possible pathways to respond to the tensions in the food-water nexus are evaluated and include: (1) Higher water productivity; (2) Food trade; (3) Improvements in both crop yield and ‘sustainable’ Total Factor Productivity (TFP); (4) Greater investment in water infrastructure; and (5) Integrative policies and decision processes. Without a combination of some, or all, of these possible pathways, appropriately adapted to bio-physical and socio-economic circumstances, the world faces grave risks in food and water security out to 2050.

Description: Estimating the current risk of coastal flooding requires adequate information on extreme sea levels. For over a decade, the only global data available was the DINAS-COAST Extreme Sea Levels (DCESL) dataset, which applies a static approximation to estimate extreme sea levels. Recently, a dynamically derived dataset was developed: the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. Here, we compare the two datasets. The differences between DCESL and GTSR are generally larger than the confidence intervals of GTSR. Compared to observed extremes, DCESL generally overestimates extremes with a mean bias of 0.6 m. With a mean bias of −0.2 m GTSR generally underestimates extremes, particularly in the tropics. The DIVA model is applied to calculate the present-day flood exposure in terms of the land area and the population below the 1 in 100-year sea levels. Global exposed population and is 28% lower when based on GTSR instead of DCESL. Considering the limited data available at the time, DCESL provides a good estimate of the spatial variation in extremes around the world. However, GTSR allows for an improved assessment of the impacts of coastal floods, including confidence bounds. We further improve the assessment of coastal impacts by correcting for the conflicting vertical datum of sea level extremes and land elevation, which has not been accounted for in previous global assessments. Converting the extreme sea levels to the same vertical reference used for the elevation data is shown to be a critical step resulting in 39-59% higher estimate of population exposure.

Description: The cryosphere in mountain regions is rapidly declining, a trend that is expected to accelerate over the next several decades due to anthropogenic climate change. A cascade of effects will result, extending from mountains to lowlands with associated impacts on human livelihood, economy, and ecosystems. With rising air temperatures and increased radiative forcing, glaciers will become smaller and, in some cases, disappear, the area of frozen ground will diminish, the ratio of snow to rainfall will decrease, and the timing and magnitude of both maximum and minimum streamflow will change. These changes will affect erosion rates, sediment, and nutrient flux, and the biogeochemistry of rivers and proglacial lakes, all of which influence water quality, aquatic habitat, and biotic communities. Changes in the length of the growing season will allow low-elevation plants and animals to expand their ranges upward. Slope failures due to thawing alpine permafrost, and outburst floods from glacier- and moraine-dammed lakes will threaten downstream populations. Societies even well beyond the mountains depend on meltwater from glaciers and snow for drinking water supplies, irrigation, mining, hydropower, agriculture, and recreation. Here, we review and, where possible, quantify the impacts of anticipated climate change on the alpine cryosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere, and consider the implications for adaptation to a future of mountains without permanent snow and ice.

Description: Most of the Earth System Models (ESMs) project increases in net primary productivity (NPP) and terrestrial carbon (C) storage during the 21 st century. Despite empirical evidence that limited availability of phosphorus (P) may limit the response of NPP to increasing atmospheric CO 2 , none of the ESMs used in the previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment accounted for P limitation. We diagnosed from ESM simulations the amount of P need to support increases in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems using two approaches: the demand derived from (a) changes in C stocks and (b) changes in NPP. The C stock-based additional P demand was estimated to range between −31 and 193 Tg P and between −89 and 262 Tg P for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively, with negative values indicating a P surplus. The NPP-based demand, which takes ecosystem P recycling into account, results in a significantly higher P demand of 648 ~ 1606 Tg P for RCP2.6 and 924 ~ 2110 Tg P for RCP8.5. We found that the P demand is sensitive to the turnover of P in decomposing plant material, explaining the large differences between the NPP-based demand and C stock-based demand. The discrepancy between diagnosed P demand and actual P availability (potential P deficit) depends mainly on the assumptions about availability of the different soil P forms. Overall, future P limitation strongly depends on both soil P availability and P recycling on ecosystem scale.

Description: The highest mountain peaks on Hawaii Island are snow covered for part of almost every year. This snow has esthetic and recreational value as well as cultural significance for residents and visitors. Thus far there have been almost no systematic observations of snowfall, snow cover or snow depth in Hawaii. Here we use satellite observations to construct a daily index of Hawaii Island snow cover starting from 2000. The seasonal mean of our index displays large interannual variations that are correlated with the seasonal mean freezing level and frequency of trade wind inversions as determined from nearby balloon soundings. Our snow cover index provides a diagnostic for monitoring climate variability and trends within the extensive area of the globe dominated by the North Pacific trade wind meteorological regime. We have also conducted simulations of the Hawaii climate with a regional atmospheric model. Retrospective simulations for 1990-2015 were run with boundary conditions prescribed from gridded observational analyses. Simulations for the end of 21 st century employed boundary conditions based on global climate model projections that included standard scenarios for anticipated anthropogenic climate forcing. The future projections indicate that snowfall will nearly disappear by the end of the current century.

Description: We investigated the feasibilities of 2.0 and 1.5 C climate targets by considering the abatement potentials of a full suite of greenhouse gases, pollutants, and aerosols. We revised the intertemporal dynamic optimization model DICE-2013R by introducing three features as follows. First, we applied a new marginal abatement cost (MAC) curve derived under moderate assumptions regarding future socioeconomic development - the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 (SSP2) scenario. Second, we addressed emission abatement for not only industrial CO2 but also land-use CO2, CH4, N2O, halogenated gases, CO, volatile organic compounds (VOC), SOx, NOx, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC). Third, we improved the treatment of the non-CO2 components in the climate module based on MAGICC 6.0. We obtained the following findings: 1) It is important to address the individual emissions in an analysis of low stabilization scenarios because abating land-use CO2, non-CO2 and aerosol emissions also contributes to maintaining a low level of radiative forcing and substantially affects the climate costs. 2) The 2.0 C target can be efficiently reached under the assumptions of the SSP2 scenario. 3) The 1.5 C target can be met with early deep cuts under the assumption of a temperature overshoot, and it will triple the carbon price and double the mitigation cost compared with the 2.0 C case.

Description: The changing Arctic sea ice cover is likely to impact the trans-border exchange of sea ice between the exclusive economic zones (EEZs) of the Arctic nations, affecting the risk of ice-rafted contamination. We apply the Lagrangian Ice Tracking System (LITS) to identify sea ice formation events and track sea ice to its melt locations. Most ice (52%) melts within 100 km of where it is formed; circa 21% escapes from its EEZ. Thus most contaminants will be released within an ice parcel's originating EEZ, while over 1,000,000 km 2 of ice—an area larger than France and Germany combined, to other nations’ waters. Between the periods 1988–1999 and 2000–2014, sea ice formation increased by ~17% (roughly 6 million km 2 vs 5 million km 2 annually). Melting peaks earlier; freeze-up begins later; and the central Arctic Ocean is more prominent in both formation and melt in the later period. The total area of ice transported between EEZs increased, while transit times decreased: for example, Russian ice reached melt locations in other nations’ EEZs an average of 46% faster while North American ice reached destinations in Eurasian waters an average of 37% faster. Increased trans-border exchange is mainly a result of increased speed (~14% per decade), allowing first year ice to escape the summer melt front, even as the front extends further north. Increased trans-border exchange over shorter times is bringing the EEZs of the Arctic nations closer together, which should be taken into account in policy development—including establishment of marine protected areas.

Description: The water footprint for fossil fuels typically accounts for water utilized in mining and fuel processing, whereas the water footprint of biofuels assesses the agricultural water used by crops through their lifetime. Fossil fuels have an additional water footprint that is not easily accounted for: ancient water that was used by plants millions of years ago, before they were transformed into fossil fuel. How much water is mankind using from the past to sustain current energy needs? We evaluate the link between ancient water virtually embodied in fossil fuels to current global energy demands by determining the water demand required to replace fossil fuels with biomass produced with water from the present. Using equal energy units of wood, bioethanol, and biodiesel to replace coal, natural gas, and crude oil, respectively, the resulting water demand is 7.39 × 10 13 m 3 y −1 , approximately the same as the total annual evaporation from all land masses and transpiration from all terrestrial vegetation. Thus, there are strong hydrologic constraints to a reliance on biofuel energy produced with water from the present because the conversion from fossil fuels to biofuels would have a disproportionate and unsustainable impact on the modern water. By using fossil fuels to meet today's energy needs, we are virtually using water from a geological past. The water cycle is insufficient to sustain the production of the fuel presently consumed by human societies. Thus, non-fuel based renewable energy sources are needed to decrease mankind's reliance on fossil fuel energy without placing an overwhelming pressure on global freshwater resources.

Description: In this paper, we focus on stratospheric sulfate injection as a geoengineering scheme, and provide a combined scientific and ethical analysis of climate response tests, which are a subset of outdoor tests that would seek to impose detectable and attributable changes to climate variables on global or regional scales. We assess the current state of scientific understanding on the plausibility and scalability of climate response tests. Then we delineate a minimal baseline against which to consider whether certain climate response tests would be relevant for a deployment scenario. Our analysis shows that some climate response tests, such as those attempting to detect changes in regional climate impacts, may not be deployable in time periods relevant to realistic geoengineering scenarios. This might pose significant challenges for justifying SSI deployment overall. We then outline some of the major ethical challenges proposed climate response tests would face to be considered properly socially licensed forms of research. We consider what levels of confidence would be required to ethically justify approving a proposed test; whether the consequences of tests are subject to similar questions of justice, compensation and informed consent as full scale deployment; and whether questions of intent and hubris are morally relevant for climate response tests. We suggest further research into laboratory-based work and modeling may help to narrow the scientific uncertainties related to climate response tests, and help inform future ethical debate. However, even if such work is pursued, the ethical issues raised by proposed climate response tests are significant and manifold.

Description: Nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition are much mitigated over the conterminous US (CONUS) but deposition exceedance still exists on forest soil. In addition, the empirical approach is usually used but only provides a spatially constant critical load (CL). Therefore, the CL derived from steady-state mass balance equation is used to study the CL exceedance on forest soil over the CONUS. The multi-model mean (MMM) of global climate-chemistry models in 2000s indicates that total (wet + dry) N deposition alone over 10.32% of forest soil exceeds the CL, but a higher percent (30.16%) is observed by the N + S deposition, which highlights the necessity of considering S deposition. In 2050s, less CL exceeded forest soil is projected and the exceedance amount is lower as well, mainly attributed to the strong reduction of projected NO X and SO 2 emissions. By firstly projecting the future CL due to the climate change, the CL exceedance could further decrease since the air temperature is projected to increase rapidly and lead to higher CL in the future. The CL exceedance by N deposition alone is likely to be dominated by NO y in 2000s but NH X in 2050s because of the enhanced NH 3 emission. Moreover, both in 2000s and 2050s, using the CL generated by different aggregation methods can cause up to 33 times difference between the corresponding CL exceedance. This suggests that several regions are under the marginal threat of either N or N + S deposition and different CL can influence the results significantly.

Description: Rapid urban development has been widespread in many arid regions of the world during the Anthropocene. Such development has the potential to affect, and be affected by, local and regional dunefield dynamics. While urban design often includes consideration of the wind regime, the potential impact of construction on the surrounding environment is seldom considered and remains poorly understood. In this study regional airflow modelling during successive stages of urbanization at Maspalomas, Gran Canaria, Spain, indicates significant and progressive flow perturbations that have altered the adjacent dunefield. Significant modifications to the boundary layer velocity, mean wind directionality, turbulence intensity, and sediment flux potential are attributed to the extension of the evolving urban geometry into the internal boundary layer (IBL). Two distinct process/response zones were identified: (1) the urban shadow zone where widespread dune stabilization is attributed to the sheltering effect of the urban area on surface wind velocity; and (2) the acceleration zone where airflow is deflected away from the urbanized area, causing an increase in sediment transport potential and surface erosion. Consistent coherent turbulent structures were identified at landform and dunefield scales: counter-rotating vortices develop in the lee-side flow of dune crests and shedding off the buildings on the downwind edge of the urban area. This study illustrates the direct geomorphic impact of urbanization on aeolian dunefield dynamics, a relationship that has received little previous attention. The study provides a template for investigations of the potential impact of urbanization in arid zones.