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  • Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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  • 2020-2024  (49)
  • 2015-2019
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  • 1
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    Bias correction of daily precipitation for ungauged locations using geostatistical approaches: A case study for the CORDEX‐Africa ensemble (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-14
    Description: Climate model simulations typically exhibit a bias, which can be corrected using statistical approaches. In this study, a geostatistical approach for bias correction of daily precipitation at ungauged locations is presented. The method utilizes a double quantile mapping with dry day correction for future periods. The transfer function of the bias correction for the ungauged locations is established using distribution functions estimated by ordinary kriging with anisotropic variograms. The methodology was applied to the daily precipitation simulations of the entire CORDEX‐Africa ensemble for a study region located in the West African Sudanian Savanna. This ensemble consists of 23 regional climate models (RCM) that were run for three different future scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5). The evaluation of the approach for a historical 50‐year period (1950–2005) showed that the method can reduce the inherent strong precipitation bias of RCM simulations, thereby reproducing the main climatological features of the observed data. Moreover, the bias correction technique preserves the climate change signal of the uncorrected RCM simulations. However, the ensemble spread is increased due to an overestimation of the rainfall probability of uncorrected RCM simulations. The application of the bias correction method to the future period (2006–2100) revealed that annual precipitation increases for most models in the near (2020–2049) and far future (2070–2099) with a mean increase of up to 165mm⋅a−1 (18%). An analysis of the monthly and daily time series showed a slightly delayed onset and intensification of the rainy season.
    Description: Adapting water management strategies to future precipitation projected by climate models is associated with high uncertainty in sparsely gauged catchments. Kriging was utilized to estimate distribution parameters for ungauged locations in a West African region to perform a bias correction of the CORDEX‐Africa ensemble. The application of the bias correction method revealed higher annual precipitation amounts and an intensifaction of the rainy season but only little change to the onset of the rainy season.
    Description: German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Bonn (BMBF), West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL)
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; bias correction ; climate change ; CORDEX‐Africa ; geostatistical approaches ; precipitation ; quantile mapping ; West Africa
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    Distribution, drivers and population structure of the invasive alien snail Tarebia granifera in the Luvuvhu system, South Africa (2022)
    Makherana, Fhatuwani ; Cuthbert, Ross N. ; Dondofema, Farai ; [et al.]
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-14
    Description: Invasive alien species continue to spread and proliferate in waterways worldwide, but environmental drivers of invasion dynamics lack assessment. Knowledge gaps are pervasive in the Global South, where the frequent heavy human‐modification of rivers provides high opportunity for invasion. In southern Africa, the spatio‐temporal ecology of a widespread and high‐impact invasive alien snail, Tarebia granifera, and its management status is understudied. Here, an ecological assessment was conducted at seven sites around Nandoni Reservoir on the Luvuvhu River in South Africa. The distribution and densities of T. granifera were mapped and the potential drivers of population structure were explored. T. granifera was widespread at sites impacted to varying extents due to anthropogenic activity, with densities exceeding 500 individuals per square meter at the most impacted areas. T. granifera predominantly preferred shallow and sandy environments, being significantly associated with sediment (i.e., chlorophyll‐a, Mn, SOC, SOM) and water (i.e., pH, conductivity, TDS) variables. T. granifera seemed to exhibit two recruitment peaks in November and March, identified via size‐based stock assessment. Sediment parameters (i.e., sediment organic matter, sediment organic carbon, manganese) and water chemistry (i.e., pH, total dissolved solids, conductivity) were found to be important in structuring T. granifera populations, with overall snail densities highest during the summer season. We provide important autecological information and insights on the distribution and extent of the spread of T. granifera. This may help in the development of invasive alien snail management action plans within the region, as well as modelling efforts to predict invasion patterns elsewhere based on environmental characteristics.
    Description: Alexander von Humboldt‐Stiftung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100005156
    Description: National Research Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001321
    Description: University of Venda http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100008976
    Keywords: ddc:577.6 ; aquatic non‐native invasions ; environmental gradients ; Global South ; human‐modified river ; quilted melania ; reservoir
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Record summers in Europe: Variations in drought and heavy precipitation during 1901–2018 (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-13
    Description: During the last 20 years some very hot and dry summers affected Europe, resulting in regionally record‐breaking high temperature or low precipitation values. Long‐term changes of such extremely hot and dry summers are of great relevance for our society, as they are connected with manifold negative impacts on human society, natural ecosystems, and diverse economic sectors. Long‐term variations in drought and five record drought summer half years are studied based on 63 stations across Europe with high‐quality precipitation and temperature time series spanning the period 1901–2018. Eight drought indices are deployed to analyse drought intensity, frequency, and duration; four of them purely precipitation‐based and four integrating potential evapotranspiration in the computation. Additionally, three heavy precipitation indices and simultaneous increases in drought and heavy precipitation are studied. The five driest summer half years over Europe are identified (1947, 2018, 2003, 1921, and 1911). They are analysed by aggregating eight drought indices into the aggregated drought evaluation index (ADE) for five subregions. The ADE shows increasing summer drought conditions over most of Europe, except for some stations in northern Europe. The increase in drought conditions during the warm part of the year is particularly pronounced for indices integrating evapotranspiration in their definition. At the same time, the intensity of heavy precipitation events shows a positive trend, as well as an increased contribution to total precipitation. Several stations in central Europe show simultaneously increasing drought conditions and increasing heavy precipitation events. This increases the risks connected with precipitation extremes.
    Description: Drought and heavy precipitation trends are studied for selected stations with long time series. Both extreme events are related to specific impacts on different economic sectors and thus society. Stations that simultaneously show increasing trends in drought and heavy precipitation mainly occur in central Europe. This indicates a probably higher exposure to these risks in central Europe as well as a demand for broader adaptation options in this region.
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; climate indices ; climate variability and change ; dry periods ; mRAI ; WBAI
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Towards a more comprehensive assessment of the intensity of historical European heat waves (1979–2019) (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2023-01-19
    Description: Europe has been affected by record‐breaking heat waves in recent decades. Using station data and a gridded reanalysis as input, four commonly used heat wave indices, the heat wave magnitude index daily (HWMId), excess heat factor (EHF), wet‐bulb globe temperature (WBGT) and universal thermal climate index (UTCI), are computed. The extremeness of historical European heat waves between 1979 and 2019 using the four indices and different metrics is ranked. A normalisation to enable the comparison between the four indices is introduced. Additionally, a method to quantify the influence of the input parameters on heat wave magnitude is introduced. The spatio‐temporal behaviour of heat waves is assessed by spatial–temporal tracking. The areal extent, large‐scale intensity and duration are visualized using bubble plots. As expected, temperature explains the largest variance in all indices, but humidity is nearly as important in WBGT and wind speed plays a substantial role in UTCI. While the 2010 Russian heat wave is by far the most extreme event in duration and intensity in all normalized indices, the 2018 heat wave was comparable in size for EHF, WBGT and UTCI. Interestingly, the well‐known 2003 central European heat wave was only the fifth and tenth strongest in cumulative intensity in WBGT and UTCI, respectively. The June and July 2019 heat waves were very intense, but short‐lived, thus not belonging to the top heat waves in Europe when duration and areal extent are taken into account. Overall, the proposed normalized indices and the multi‐metric assessment of large‐scale heat waves allow for a more robust description of their extremeness and will be helpful to assess heat waves worldwide and in climate projections.
    Description: Europe has been affected by record‐breaking heat waves in recent decades. Using station data and a gridded reanalysis, the extremeness of European heat waves between 1979 and 2019 is ranked using four indices: heat wave magnitude index daily (HWMId), excess heat factor (EHF), wet‐bulb globe temperature (WBGT) and universal thermal climate index (UTCI). In order to assess heatwaves worldwide and in climate projections, the spatial extent, large‐scale intensity and duration of heatwaves are visualized using bubble plots.
    Description: AXA Research Fund http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001961
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100009133
    Keywords: ddc:551.5 ; duration ; heat wave ; indices ; intensity ; large‐scale ; spatial extent
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Non‐exchangeable stable hydrogen isotope ratios in clay minerals and soil clay fractions: A method test (2022)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-20
    Description: Stable hydrogen isotope ratios (δ2H values) in structural hydroxyl groups of pedogenic clay minerals are inherited from the surrounding water at the time of their formation. Only non‐exchangeable H preserves the environmental forensic and paleoclimate information (δ2Hn value). To measure δ2Hn values in structural H of clay minerals and soil clay fractions, we adapted a steam equilibration method by accounting for high hygroscopicity. Our δ2Hn values for USGS57 biotite (−95.3 ± SD 0.9‰) and USGS58 muscovite (30.7 ± 1.4‰) differed slightly but significantly from the reported δ2H values (−91.5 ± 2.4‰ and −28.4 ± 1.6‰), because the minerals contained 1.1%–4.4% of exchangeable H. The low SD of replicate measurements (n = 3) confirmed a high precision. The clay separation method including destruction of Fe oxides, carbonates and soil organic matter, and dispersion did not significantly change the δ2Hn values of five different clay minerals. However, we were unable to remove all organic matter from the soil clay fractions resulting in an estimated bias of 1‰ in two samples and 15‰ in the carbon‐richest sample. Our results demonstrate that δ2Hn values of structural H of clay minerals and soil clay fractions can be reliably measured without interference from atmospheric water and the method used to separate the soil clay fraction. Highlights We tested steam equilibration to determine stable isotope ratios of structural H in clay. Gas‐tight capsule sealing in Ar atmosphere was necessary to avoid remoistening. Our steam equilibration method showed a high accuracy and precision. The clay separation method did not change stable isotope ratios of structural H in clay.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:549 ; controlled isotope exchange technique ; deuterium ; montmorillonite ; soil clay separation ; soil organic matter removal ; steam equilibration ; structural H ; USGS57 biotite ; vermiculite ; δ2H
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Parameterizing building effects on airflows within the urban canopy layer for high‐resolution models using a nudging approach (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-24
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉In this study, a new multilayer urban canopy parameterization for high‐resolution (∼1 km) atmospheric models using the nudging approach to represent the impacts of urban canopies on airflow is presented. In our parameterization, a nudging term is added to the momentum equations and a source term to the turbulent kinetic energy equation to account for building effects. The challenge of this parameterization lies in defining appropriate values for the nudging coefficient and the weighting function used to reflect canopy effects. Values of both are derived and the parameterization developed is implemented and tested for idealized cases in the Mesoscale Transport and Stream model (METRAS). Comparison data are taken from obstacle‐resolving microscale model results. Results show that the parameterization using the nudging approach can simulate aerodynamic effects induced within the canopy by obstacles well, in terms of reduction of wind speeds and production of additional turbulent kinetic energy. Thus, models with existing nudging can use this approach as an efficient and effective method to parameterize dynamic urban canopy effects.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉In this study, a new multilayer urban canopy parameterization for high‐resolution (∼1 km) atmospheric models using the nudging approach to represent the impacts of urban canopies on airflow is presented. Results show that the parameterization developed can simulate aerodynamic effects induced within the canopy by obstacles well, in terms of reduction of wind speeds and production of additional turbulent kinetic energy. Models with existing nudging can use this approach as an efficient and effective method to parameterize dynamic urban canopy effects. 〈boxed-text position="anchor" id="qj4524-blkfxd-0001" content-type="graphic" xml:lang="en"〉〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:00359009:media:qj4524:qj4524-toc-0001"〉 〈/graphic〉 〈/boxed-text〉〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) under Germany's Excellence Strategy‐EXC 2037 'CLICCS‐Climate, Climatic Change, and Society'
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; canopy parameterization ; evaluation ; nudging ; numerical modelling ; urban boundary layer ; urban canopy parameterization
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Lagrangian description of the atmospheric flow from Eulerian tracer advection with relaxation (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-28
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The Lagrangian representation of fluid flows offers a natural perspective to study many kinds of physical mechanisms. By contrast, the Eulerian representation is more convenient from a diagnostic point of view. This article attempts to combine elements of both worlds by proposing an Eulerian method that allows one to extract Lagrangian information about the atmospheric flow. The method is based on the offline advection of passive tracer fields and includes a relaxation term. The latter device allows one to run the integration in a continuous fashion without the need for reinitialization. As a result one obtains accumulated Lagrangian information, for example, about the recent parcel displacement or the recent parcel‐based diabatic heating, at each point of an Eulerian grid at any time step. The method is implemented with a pseudospectral algorithm suitable for gridded global atmospheric data and compared with the more traditional trajectory method. The method's utility is demonstrated on the basis of a few examples, which relate to cloud formation and the development of temperature anomalies. The examples highlight that the method provides a convenient diagnostic of parcel‐based changes, paving an intuitive way to explore the physical processes involved. Due to its gridpoint‐based nature, the proposed method can be applied to large data sets in a straightforward and computationally efficient manner, suggesting that the method is particularly useful for climatological analyses.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The Lagrangian representation of fluid flows offers the most natural perspective to study many kinds of physical mechanisms; by contrast, the Eulerian representation is more convenient from a diagnostic point of view. This article attempts to combine elements of both worlds by proposing an Eulerian method that allows one to extract Lagrangian information about the atmospheric flow. The method enables one to easily produce a sequence of maps showing accumulated Lagrangian changes. 〈boxed-text position="anchor" id="qj4453-blkfxd-0001" content-type="graphic" xml:lang="en"〉〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:00359009:media:qj4453:qj4453-toc-0001"〉 〈/boxed-text〉〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:551.5 ; air‐parcel approach ; atmospheric fluid dynamics ; atmospheric transport ; Eulerian tracer technique ; Lagrangian analysis ; Lagrangian tracking ; synoptic‐scale meteorology ; trajectories
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Spatiotemporal variability of the potential wind erosion risk in Southern Africa between 2005 and 2019 (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-21
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Regional assessments of the wind erosion risk are rare and vary due to the methods used and the available data to be included. The adaptation of existing methods has the advantage that the results can be compared directly. We adopted an already successfully applied methodology (ILSWE—applied in East Africa), to investigate the spatiotemporal variability of the wind erosion risk between 2005 and 2019 in Southern Africa. The approach integrates climatic variables, a vegetation index, and soil properties to describe the potential impact of wind erosion at the landscape scale. The annual and seasonal variability is determined by the vegetation cover, whereas droughts and strong El Niño events had only regional effects. We estimated that 8.3% of the study area experiences a moderate to elevated wind erosion risk over the 15‐year period with annual and inter‐annual fluctuations showing a slight upward trend. In general, the desert and drylands in the west have the highest proportion of risk areas, the moist forests in the east are characterized by a very low risk of wind erosion, while the grasslands, shrublands, and croplands in the interior most likely react to changes of climatic conditions. The validation process is based on a comparison with the estimated frequency of dust storms derived from the aerosol optical depth and angstrom exponent and revealed an overall accuracy of 65%. The results of this study identify regions and yearly periods prone to wind erosion to prioritize for further analysis and conservation policies for mitigation and adaptation strategies.〈/p〉
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)
    Description: http://www.climatologylab.org/terraclimate
    Description: https://www.isric.org/
    Description: http://www.fao.org/soils-portal/data-hub/soil-maps-and-databases/harmonized-world-soil-database-v12
    Description: https://land.copernicus.eu/global/products/fcover
    Description: https://www.esa-landcover-cci.org/%20
    Description: https://databasin.org/
    Description: https://giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov/giovanni/
    Keywords: ddc:551.3 ; environmental modelling ; geographic information systems ; ILSWE model ; remote sensing ; temporal variability ; wind erosion
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Convergence of forecast distributions in a 100,000‐member idealised convective‐scale ensemble (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-25
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Many operational weather services use ensembles of forecasts to generate probabilistic predictions. Computational costs generally limit the size of the ensemble to fewer than 100 members, although the large number of degrees of freedom in the forecast model would suggest that a vastly larger ensemble would be required to represent the forecast probability distribution accurately. In this study, we use a computationally efficient idealised model that replicates key properties of the dynamics and statistics of cumulus convection to identify how the sampling uncertainty of statistical quantities converges with ensemble size. Convergence is quantified by computing the width of the 95% confidence interval of the sampling distribution of random variables, using bootstrapping on the ensemble distributions at individual time and grid points. Using ensemble sizes of up to 100,000 members, it was found that for all computed distribution properties, including mean, variance, skew, kurtosis, and several quantiles, the sampling uncertainty scaled as 〈mml:math id="jats-math-1" display="inline" overflow="scroll"〉〈mml:msup〉〈mml:mrow〉〈mml:mi〉n〈/mml:mi〉〈/mml:mrow〉〈mml:mrow〉〈mml:mo form="prefix"〉−〈/mml:mo〉〈mml:mn〉1〈/mml:mn〉〈mml:mo stretchy="false"〉/〈/mml:mo〉〈mml:mn〉2〈/mml:mn〉〈/mml:mrow〉〈/mml:msup〉〈/mml:math〉 for sufficiently large ensemble size 〈mml:math id="jats-math-2" display="inline" overflow="scroll"〉〈mml:mrow〉〈mml:mi〉n〈/mml:mi〉〈/mml:mrow〉〈/mml:math〉. This behaviour is expected from the Central Limit Theorem, which further predicts that the magnitude of the uncertainty depends on the distribution shape, with a large uncertainty for statistics that depend on rare events. This prediction was also confirmed, with the additional observation that such statistics also required larger ensemble sizes before entering the asymptotic regime. By considering two methods for evaluating asymptotic behaviour in small ensembles, we show that the large‐〈mml:math id="jats-math-3" display="inline" overflow="scroll"〉〈mml:mrow〉〈mml:mi〉n〈/mml:mi〉〈/mml:mrow〉〈/mml:math〉 theory can be applied usefully for some forecast quantities even for the ensemble sizes in operational use today.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉An idealised ensemble that replicates key properties of the dynamics and statistics of cumulus convection is used to identify how sampling uncertainty of statistical quantities converges with ensemble size. A universal asymptotic scaling for this convergence was found, which was dependent on the statistic and the distribution shape, with largest uncertainty for statistics that depend on rare events. This is demonstrated in the figure below for a Gaussian distributed model variable, where the sampling uncertainty (y‐axis) for 5 quantiles (red lines) indicates that after a certain ensemble size, it begins converging asymptotically (grey lines), and the more extreme the quantile, the more members it requires for this to be the case. 〈boxed-text position="anchor" id="qj4410-blkfxd-0001" content-type="graphic" xml:lang="en"〉〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:00359009:media:qj4410:qj4410-toc-0001"〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Klaus Tschira Stiftung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100007316
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; asymptotic convergence ; distributions ; ensembles ; idealised model ; sampling uncertainty ; weather prediction
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Partial analysis increments as diagnostic for LETKF data assimilation systems (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2023-07-25
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Local ensemble transform Kalman filters (LETKFs) allow explicit calculation of the Kalman gain, and by this the contribution of individual observations to the analysis field. Though this is a known feature, the information on the analysis contribution of individual observations (partial analysis increment) has not been used as systematic diagnostic up to now despite providing valuable information. In this study, we demonstrate three potential applications based on partial analysis increments in the regional modelling system of Deutscher Wetterdienst and propose their use for optimising LETKF data assimilation systems, in particular with respect to satellite data assimilation and localisation. While exact calculation of partial analysis increments would require saving the large, five‐dimensional ensemble weight matrix in the analysis step, it is possible to compute an approximation from standard LETKF output. We calculate the Kalman gain based on ensemble analysis perturbations, which is an approximation in the case of localisation. However, this only introduces minor errors, as the localisation function changes very gradually among nearby grid points. On the other hand, the influence of observations always depends on the presence of other observations and settings for the observation error and for localisation. However, the influence of observations behaves approximately linearly, meaning that the assimilation of other observations primarily decreases the magnitude of the influence, but it does not change the overall structure of the partial analysis increments. This means that the calculation of partial analysis increments can be used as an efficient diagnostic to investigate the three‐dimensional influence of observations in the assimilation system. Furthermore, the diagnostic can be used to detect whether the influence of additional experimental observations is in accordance with other observations without conducting computationally expensive single‐observation experiments. Last but not least, the calculation can be used to approximate the influence an observation would have when applying different assimilation settings.〈/p〉
    Keywords: ddc:551.5 ; analysis influence ; convective‐scale ; ensemble data assimilation ; localisation ; NWP ; satellite data assimilation
    Language: English
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  • 11
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    Modeling cloud properties over the 79 N Glacier (Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden, NE Greenland) for an intense summer melt period in 2019 (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
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    Publication Date: 2023-07-25
    Description: Long believed to be insignificant, melt activity on the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS) has increased in recent years. Summertime Arctic clouds have the potential to strongly affect surface melt processes by regulating the amount of radiation received at the surface. However, the cloud effect over Greenland is spatially and temporally variable and high‐resolution information on the northeast is absent. This study aims at exploring the potential of a high‐resolution configuration of the polar‐optimized Weather Research & Forecasting Model (PWRF) in simulating cloud properties in the area of the Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden Glacier (79 N Glacier). Subsequently, the model simulations are employed to investigate the impact of Arctic clouds on the surface energy budget and on surface melting during the extensive melt event at the end of July 2019. Compared to automatic weather station (AWS) measurements and remote‐sensing data (Sentinel‐2A and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, MODIS), PWRF simulates cloud properties with sufficient accuracy. It appears that peak melt was caused by an increase in solar radiation and sensible heat flux (SHF) in response to a blocking anticyclone and foehn winds in the absence of clouds. Cloud warming over high‐albedo surfaces helped to precondition the surface and prolonged the melting as the anticyclone abated. The results are sensitive to the surface albedo and suggest spatiotemporal differences in the cloud effect as snow and ice properties change over the course of the melting season. This demonstrates the importance of including high‐resolution information on clouds in analyses of ice sheet dynamics.
    Description: German Federal Ministry for Education and Research http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5065/EM0T-1D34
    Description: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp/#!/search?type=dataset
    Description: https://ladsweb.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/search/
    Keywords: ddc:551.5 ; cloud properties ; cloud radiative effect ; Northeast Greenland Ice Stream ; regional climate modeling ; surface energy balance ; surface melt ; surface energy balance ; surface melt
    Language: English
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  • 12
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    Scale interactions between the meso‐ and synoptic scales and the impact of diabatic heating (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-25
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉For both the meso‐ and synoptic scales, reduced mathematical models give insight into their dynamical behaviour. For the mesoscale, the weak temperature gradient approximation is one of several approaches, while for the synoptic scale the quasigeostrophic theory is well established. However, the way these two scales interact with each other is usually not included in such reduced models, thereby limiting our current perception of flow‐dependent predictability and upscale error growth. Here, we address the scale interactions explicitly by developing a two‐scale asymptotic model for the meso‐ and synoptic scales with two coupled sets of equations for the meso‐ and synoptic scales respectively. The mesoscale equations follow a weak temperature gradient balance and the synoptic‐scale equations align with quasigeostrophic theory. Importantly, the equation sets are coupled via scale‐interaction terms: eddy correlations of mesoscale variables impact the synoptic potential vorticity tendency and synoptic variables force the mesoscale vorticity (for instance due to tilting of synoptic‐scale wind shear). Furthermore, different diabatic heating rates—representing the effect of precipitation—define different flow characteristics. With weak mesoscale heating relatable to precipitation rates of 〈mml:math id="jats-math-1" display="inline" overflow="scroll"〉〈mml:mrow〉〈mml:mi〉𝒪〈/mml:mi〉〈mml:mo stretchy="false"〉(〈/mml:mo〉〈mml:mn〉6〈/mml:mn〉〈mml:mspace width="0.3em"/〉〈mml:mtext〉mm〈/mml:mtext〉〈mml:mo〉·〈/mml:mo〉〈mml:msup〉〈mml:mrow〉〈mml:mi mathvariant="normal"〉h〈/mml:mi〉〈/mml:mrow〉〈mml:mrow〉〈mml:mo form="prefix"〉−〈/mml:mo〉〈mml:mn〉1〈/mml:mn〉〈/mml:mrow〉〈/mml:msup〉〈mml:mo stretchy="false"〉)〈/mml:mo〉〈/mml:mrow〉〈/mml:math〉, the mesoscale dynamics resembles two‐dimensional incompressible vorticity dynamics and the upscale impact of the mesoscale on the synoptic scale is only of a dynamical nature. With a strong mesosocale heating relatable to precipitation rates of 〈mml:math id="jats-math-2" display="inline" overflow="scroll"〉〈mml:mrow〉〈mml:mi〉𝒪〈/mml:mi〉〈mml:mo stretchy="false"〉(〈/mml:mo〉〈mml:mn〉60〈/mml:mn〉〈mml:mspace width="0.3em"/〉〈mml:mtext〉mm〈/mml:mtext〉〈mml:mo〉·〈/mml:mo〉〈mml:msup〉〈mml:mrow〉〈mml:mi mathvariant="normal"〉h〈/mml:mi〉〈/mml:mrow〉〈mml:mrow〉〈mml:mo form="prefix"〉−〈/mml:mo〉〈mml:mn〉1〈/mml:mn〉〈/mml:mrow〉〈/mml:msup〉〈mml:mo stretchy="false"〉)〈/mml:mo〉〈/mml:mrow〉〈/mml:math〉, divergent motions and three‐dimensional effects become relevant for the mesoscale dynamics and the upscale impact also includes thermodynamical effects.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉We develop a two‐scale asymptotic model for the meso‐ and synoptic scales following a weak temperature gradient balance and quasigeostrophic theory, but with explicit scale interactions and dependent on the mesoscale diabatic heating. With weak mesoscale heating, the mesoscale dynamics resembles 2D incompressible vorticity dynamics and the upscale impact on the synoptic scale is only of a dynamical nature. With strong mesoscale heating, divergent motions and 3D effects become relevant for the mesoscale and the upscale impact also includes thermodynamical effects. 〈boxed-text position="anchor" id="qj4456-blkfxd-0001" content-type="graphic" xml:lang="en"〉〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:00359009:media:qj4456:qj4456-toc-0001"〉
    Description: German Research Foundation (DFG)
    Keywords: ddc:551.5 ; asymptotics ; atmospheric dynamics ; mesoscale ; multiscale scale interactions ; quasigeostrophic ; synoptic scale
    Language: English
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  • 13
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    Potential erodibility of semi‐arid steppe soils derived from aggregate stability tests (2022)
    Koza, Moritz ; Pöhlitz, Julia ; Prays, Aleksey ; [et al.]
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-26
    Description: Erosion is a severe threat to the sustainable use of agricultural soils. However, the structural resistance of soil against the disruptive forces steppe soils experience under field conditions has not been investigated. Therefore, 132 topsoils under grass‐ and cropland covering a large range of physico‐chemical soil properties (sand: 2–76%, silt: 18–80%, clay: 6–30%, organic carbon: 7.3–64.2 g kg−1, inorganic carbon: 0.0–8.5 g kg−1, pH: 4.8–9.5, electrical conductivity: 32–946 μS cm−1) from northern Kazakhstan were assessed for their potential erodibility using several tests. An adjusted drop‐shatter method (low energy input of 60 Joule on a 250‐cm3 soil block) was used to estimate the stability of dry soil against weak mechanical forces, such as saltating particles striking the surface causing wind erosion. Three wetting treatments with various conditions and energies (fast wetting, slow wetting, and wet shaking) were applied to simulate different disruptive effects of water. Results indicate that aggregate stability was higher for grassland than cropland soils and declined with decreasing soil organic carbon content. The results of the drop‐shatter test suggested that 29% of the soils under cropland were at risk of wind erosion, but only 6% were at high risk (i.e. erodible fraction 〉60%). In contrast, the fast wetting treatment revealed that 54% of the samples were prone to become “very unstable” and 44% “unstable” during heavy rain or snowmelt events. Even under conditions comparable to light rain events or raindrop impact, 53–59% of the samples were “unstable.” Overall, cropland soils under semi‐arid conditions seem much more susceptible to water than wind erosion. Considering future projections of increasing precipitation in Kazakhstan, we conclude that the risk of water erosion is potentially underestimated and needs to be taken into account when developing sustainable land use strategies. Highlights Organic matter is the important binding agent enhancing aggregation in steppe topsoils. Tillage always declines aggregate stability even without soil organic carbon changes. All croplands soil are prone to wind or water erosion independent of their soil properties. Despite the semi‐arid conditions, erosion risk by water seems higher than by wind.
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Keywords: ddc:631.4 ; climate change ; land use ; soil organic carbon ; soil texture ; water erosion ; wind erosion
    Language: English
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  • 14
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    Vertical SOC distribution and aromatic carbon in centuries old charcoal‐rich Technosols (2022)
    Bonhage, Alexander ; Raab, Thomas ; Schneider, Anna ; [et al.]
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-21
    Description: Charcoal‐rich Technosols on century‐old relict charcoal hearths (RCHs) are the subject of ongoing research regarding potential legacy effects that result from historic charcoal production and subsequent charcoal amendments on forest soil properties and forest ecosystems today. RCHs consist mostly of Auh horizons that are substantially enriched in soil organic carbon (SOC), of which the largest part seems to be of pyrogenic origin (PyC). However, the reported range of SOC and PyC contents in RCH soil also suggests that they are enriched in nonpyrogenic SOC. RCH soils are discussed as potential benchmarks for the long‐term influence of biochar amendment and the post‐wildfire influences on soil properties. In this study, we utilised a large soil sample dataset (n = 1245) from 52 RCH sites in north‐western Connecticut, USA, to quantify SOC contents by total element analysis. The contents of condensed highly aromatic carbon as a proxy for black carbon (BC) were predicted by using a modified benzene polycarboxylated acid (BPCA) marker method in combination with diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform (DRIFT) spectroscopy‐based partial least square regression (r2 = 0.89). A high vertical spatial sampling resolution allowed the identification of soil organic matter (SOM) enrichment and translocation processes. The results show an average 75% and 1862% increase in TOC and BPCA‐derived carbon, respectively, for technogenic Auh horizons compared to reference soils. In addition to an increase in aromatic properties, increased carboxylic properties of the RCH SOC suggest self‐humification effects of degrading charcoal and thereby the continuing formation of leachable aromatic carbon compounds, which could have effects on pedogenic processes in buried soils. Indeed, we show BPCA‐derived carbon concentrations in intermediate technogenic Cu horizons and buried top/subsoils that suggest vertical translocation of highly aromatic carbon originating in RCH Auh horizons. Topmost Auh horizons showed a gradual decrease in total organic carbon (TOC) contents with increasing depth, suggesting accumulation of recent, non‐pyrogenic SOM. Lower aliphatic absorptions in RCH soil spectra suggest different SOM turnover dynamics compared to reference soils. Furthermore, studied RCH soils featured additional TOC enrichment, which cannot be fully explained now. Highlights BC to TOC ratio and high resolution vertical SOC distribution in 52 RCH sites were studied. RCH soils non‐BC pool was potentially different to reference soils. RCH soils feature TOC accumulation in the topmost horizon. There is BC translocation into buried soils on RCH sites.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:631.4 ; benzene polycarboxylated acid marker (BPCA) ; black carbon ; charcoal degradation ; charcoal kiln ; pyrogenic carbon ; relict charcoal hearth ; biochar
    Language: English
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  • 15
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    Estimating the benefit of Doppler wind lidars for short‐term low‐level wind ensemble forecasts (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-12
    Description: This work focuses on the potential of a network of Doppler lidars for the improvement of short‐term forecasts of low‐level wind. For the impact assessment, we developed a new methodology that is based on ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA). In contrast to preceding network design studies using ESA, we calculate the explicit sensitivity including the inverse of the background covariance B matrix to account directly for the localization scale of the assimilation system. The new method is applied to a pre‐existing convective‐scale 1,000‐member ensemble simulation to mitigate effects of spurious correlations. We evaluate relative changes in the variance of a forecast metric, that is, the low‐level wind components averaged over the Rhein–Ruhr metropolitan area in Germany. This setup allows us to compare the relative variance change associated with the assimilation of hypothetical observations from a Doppler wind lidar with respect to the assimilation of surface‐wind observations only. Furthermore, we assess sensitivities of derived variance changes to a number of settings, namely observation errors, localization length scale, regularization factor, number of instruments in the network, and their location, as well as data availability of the lidar measurements. Our results demonstrate that a network of 20–30 Doppler lidars leads to a considerable variance reduction of the forecast metric chosen. On average, an additional network of 25 Doppler lidars can reduce the 1–3 hr forecast error by a factor of 1.6–3.3 with respect to 10‐m wind observations only. The results provide the basis for designing an operational network of Doppler lidars for the improvement of short‐term low‐level wind forecasts that could be especially valuable for the renewable energy sector.
    Description: This study presents the potential of a Doppler lidar network to improve short‐term low‐level wind forecasts. The approach used in this study does not require real observations and can provide valuable information for designing an operational network. The study is based on a convective‐scale 1,000‐member ensemble simulation over Germany. The results show that Doppler lidars lead to considerable variance reduction and should be considered for future observational networks.
    Description: Hans‐Ertel‐Centre for Weather Research funded by the German Federal Ministry for Transportation and Digital Infrastructure
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6331758
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; covariance ; data assimilation ; ensemble sensitivity analysis ; localization ; low‐level wind forecasts ; network of Doppler lidars ; observing system
    Language: English
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  • 16
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    Defining Hydrogeological Site Similarity with Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering (2022)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Malden, US
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-28
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Hydrogeological information about an aquifer is difficult and costly to obtain, yet essential for the efficient management of groundwater resources. Transferring information from sampled sites to a specific site of interest can provide information when site‐specific data is lacking. Central to this approach is the notion of site similarity, which is necessary for determining relevant sites to include in the data transfer process. In this paper, we present a data‐driven method for defining site similarity. We apply this method to selecting groups of similar sites from which to derive prior distributions for the Bayesian estimation of hydraulic conductivity measurements at sites of interest. We conclude that there is now a unique opportunity to combine hydrogeological expertise with data‐driven methods to improve the predictive ability of stochastic hydrogeological models.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉〈italic〉Article impact statement〈/italic〉: This article introduces hierarchical clustering as a method for defining a notion of site similarity; the aim of this method is to improve the derivation of prior distributions in Bayesian methods in hydrogeology.〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: https://github.com/GeoStat-Bayesian/geostatDB
    Description: https://github.com/GeoStat-Bayesian/exPrior
    Description: https://github.com/GeoStat-Bayesian/siteSimilarity
    Keywords: ddc:551.49 ; hydrogeological sites ; hydrogeological modeling
    Language: English
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  • 17
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    Large‐eddy simulation of soil moisture heterogeneity‐induced secondary circulation with ambient winds (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-05
    Description: Land surface heterogeneity in conjunction with ambient winds influences the convective atmospheric boundary layer by affecting the distribution of incoming solar radiation and forming secondary circulations. This study performed coupled large‐eddy simulation (ICON‐LEM) with a land surface model (TERRA‐ML) over a flat river corridor mimicked by soil moisture heterogeneity to investigate the impact of ambient winds on secondary circulations. The coupled model employed double‐periodic boundary conditions with a spatial scale of 4.8 km. All simulations used the same idealized initial atmospheric conditions with constant incident radiation of 700 W⋅m〈sup〉−2〈/sup〉 and various ambient winds with different speeds (0 to 16 m⋅s〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉) and directions (e.g., cross‐river, parallel‐river, and mixed). The atmospheric states are decomposed into ensemble‐averaged, mesoscale, and turbulence. The results show that the secondary circulation structure persists under the parallel‐river wind conditions independently of the wind speed but is destroyed when the cross‐river wind is stronger than 2 m⋅s〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉. The soil moisture and wind speed determine the influence on the surface energy distribution independent of the wind direction. However, secondary circulations increase advection and dispersive heat flux while decreasing turbulent energy flux. The vertical profiles of the wind variance reflect the secondary circulation, and the maximum value of the mesoscale vertical wind variance indicates the secondary circulation strength. The secondary circulation strength positively scales with the Bowen ratio, stability parameter (−Z〈sub〉i〈/sub〉/L), and thermal heterogeneity parameter under cross‐river wind and mixed wind conditions. The proposed similarity analyses and scaling approach provide a new quantitative perspective on the impact of the ambient wind under heteronomous soil moisture conditions on secondary circulation.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:551.5 ; ambient winds ; Bowen ratio ; land surface model ; large‐eddy simulation ; moisture spatial heterogeneity ; secondary circulation ; similarity theory ; turbulence
    Language: English
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  • 18
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    Statistical relevance of meteorological ambient conditions and cell attributes for nowcasting the life cycle of convective storms (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-06
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The usually short lifetime of convective storms and their rapid development during unstable weather conditions makes forecasting these storms challenging. It is necessary, therefore, to improve the procedures for estimating the storms' expected life cycles, including the storms' lifetime, size, and intensity development. We present an analysis of the life cycles of convective cells in Germany, focusing on the relevance of the prevailing atmospheric conditions. Using data from the radar‐based cell detection and tracking algorithm KONRAD of the German Weather Service, the life cycles of isolated convective storms are analysed for the summer half‐years from 2011 to 2016. In addition, numerous convection‐relevant atmospheric ambient variables (e.g., deep‐layer shear, convective available potential energy, lifted index), which were calculated using high‐resolution COSMO‐EU assimilation analyses (0.0625°), are combined with the life cycles. The statistical analyses of the life cycles reveal that rapid initial area growth supports wider horizontal expansion of a cell in the subsequent development and, indirectly, a longer lifetime. Specifically, the information about the initial horizontal cell area is the most important predictor for the lifetime and expected maximum cell area during the life cycle. However, its predictive skill turns out to be moderate at most, but still considerably higher than the skill of any ambient variable is. Of the latter, measures of midtropospheric mean wind and vertical wind shear are most suitable for distinguishing between convective cells with short lifetime and those with long lifetime. Higher thermal instability is associated with faster initial growth, thus favouring larger and longer living cells. A detailed objective correlation analysis between ambient variables, coupled with analyses discriminating groups of different lifetime and maximum cell area, makes it possible to gain new insights into their statistical connections. The results of this study provide guidance for predictor selection and advancements of nowcasting applications.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Based on a combination of data of the cell tracking algorithm KONRAD of the German Weather Service and COSMO‐EU model analyses for the summer half‐years from 2011 to 2016, statistical relationships between storm attributes (lifetime and maximum horizontal area), and ambient variables as well as the storms' history are quantified. The initial growth of the cell area is a better indicator of the lifetime and maximum area than ambient variables are. Of the latter, measures of the midtropospheric wind and vertical wind shear, in particular, are most suitable for distinguishing between convective cells with short and long lifetimes, whereas higher convective instability favours larger cells. 〈boxed-text position="anchor" id="qj4505-blkfxd-0001" content-type="graphic" xml:lang="en"〉〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:00359009:media:qj4505:qj4505-toc-0001"〉 〈/graphic〉 〈/boxed-text〉〈/p〉
    Description: Bundesministerium für Digitales und Verkehr http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100008383
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; convective storms ; life cycle ; multisource data ; nowcasting ; statistics ; weather prediction
    Language: English
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  • 19
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    Multi‐model assessment of sub‐seasonal predictive skill for year‐round Atlantic–European weather regimes (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-21
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The prediction skill of sub‐seasonal forecast models is evaluated for seven year‐round weather regimes in the Atlantic–European region. Reforecasts based on models from three prediction centers are considered and verified against weather regimes obtained from ERA‐Interim reanalysis. Results show that predicting weather regimes as a proxy for the large‐scale circulation outperforms the prediction of raw geopotential height. Greenland blocking tends to have the longest year‐round skill horizon for all three models, especially in winter. On the other hand, the skill is lowest for the European blocking regime for all three models, followed by the Scandinavian blocking regime. Furthermore, all models struggle to forecast flow situations that cannot be assigned to a weather regime (so‐called no regime), in comparison with weather regimes. Related to this, variability in the occurrence of no regime, which is most frequent in the transition seasons, partly explains the predictability gap between transition seasons and winter and summer. We also show that models have difficulties in discriminating between related regimes. This can lead to misassignments in the predicted regime during flow situations in which related regimes manifest. Finally, we document the changes in skill between model versions, showing important improvements for the ECMWF and NCEP models. This study is the first multi‐model assessment of year‐round weather regimes in the Atlantic–European domain. It advances our understanding of the predictive skill for weather regimes, reveals strengths and weaknesses of each model, and thus increases our confidence in the forecasts and their usefulness for decision‐making.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉This study is the first sub‐seasonal multi‐model assessment of seven year‐round weather regimes in the Atlantic–European domain. Greenland blocking tends to have the longest year‐round skill horizon for all models, especially in winter. The skill is lowest for the European blocking regime for all models, followed by Scandinavian blocking. Variability in the occurrence of no regime partly explains the predictability gap between the transition seasons and winter and summer. 〈boxed-text position="anchor" id="qj4512-blkfxd-0001" content-type="graphic" xml:lang="en"〉〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:00359009:media:qj4512:qj4512-toc-0001"〉 〈/graphic〉 〈/boxed-text〉〈/p〉
    Description: Helmholtz Association http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001656
    Description: AXPO Solutions AGN/A
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; blocking ; Europe ; North Atlantic oscillation ; windows of opportunity
    Language: English
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  • 20
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    Added value of an atmospheric circulation pattern‐based statistical downscaling approach for daily precipitation distributions in complex terrain (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-24
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Reliable prediction of heavy precipitation events causing floods in a world of changing climate is crucial for the development of appropriate adaption strategies. Many attempts to provide such predictions have already been conducted but there is still much potential for improvement left. This is particularly true for statistical downscaling of heavy precipitation due to changes present in the corresponding atmospheric drivers. In this study, a circulation pattern (CP) conditional downscaling to the station level is proposed which considers occurring frequency changes of CPs. Following a strict circulation‐to‐environment approach we use atmospheric predictors to derive CPs. Subsequently, precipitation observations are used to derive CP conditional cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of daily precipitation. Raw precipitation time series are sampled from these CDFs. Bias correction is applied to the sampled time series with quantile mapping (QM) and parametric transfer functions (PTFs) as methods being tested. The added value of this CP conditional downscaling approach is evaluated against the corresponding common non‐CP conditional approach. The performance evaluation is conducted by using Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) metrics. In both cases the applied bias correction is identical. Potential added value can therefore only be attributed to the CP conditioning. It can be shown that the proposed CP conditional downscaling approach is capable of yielding more reliable and accurate downscaled daily precipitation time series in comparison to a non‐CP conditional approach. This can be seen in particular for the extreme parts of the distribution. Above the 95th percentile, an average performance gain of +0.24 and a maximum gain of +0.6 in terms of KGE is observed. These findings support the assumption of conserving and utilizing atmospheric information through CPs can be beneficial for more reliable statistical precipitation downscaling. Due to the availability of these atmospheric predictors in climate model output, the presented method is potentially suitable for downscaling precipitation projections.〈/p〉
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-pressure-levels?tab=overview
    Description: https://cdc.dwd.de/portal/
    Keywords: ddc:551.5 ; bias correction ; circulation patterns ; ERA5 ; extreme events ; heavy precipitation ; simulated annealing ; statistical downscaling
    Language: English
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  • 21
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    Toward an adequate level of detail in flood risk assessments (2023)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-24
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Flood risk assessments require different disciplines to understand and model the underlying components hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Many methods and data sets have been refined considerably to cover more details of spatial, temporal, or process information. We compile case studies indicating that refined methods and data have a considerable effect on the overall assessment of flood risk. But are these improvements worth the effort? The adequate level of detail is typically unknown and prioritization of improvements in a specific component is hampered by the lack of an overarching view on flood risk. Consequently, creating the dilemma of potentially being too greedy or too wasteful with the resources available for a risk assessment. A “sweet spot” between those two would use methods and data sets that cover all relevant known processes without using resources inefficiently. We provide three key questions as a qualitative guidance toward this “sweet spot.” For quantitative decision support, more overarching case studies in various contexts are needed to reveal the sensitivity of the overall flood risk to individual components. This could also support the anticipation of unforeseen events like the flood event in Germany and Belgium in 2021 and increase the reliability of flood risk assessments.〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: BMBF http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Federal Environment Agency http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100010809
    Description: http://howas21.gfz-potsdam.de/howas21/
    Description: https://www.umwelt.niedersachsen.de/startseite/themen/wasser/hochwasser_amp_kustenschutz/hochwasserrisikomanagement_richtlinie/hochwassergefahren_und_hochwasserrisikokarten/hochwasserkarten-121920.html
    Description: https://download.geofabrik.de/europe/germany.html
    Description: https://emergency.copernicus.eu/mapping/list-of-components/EMSN024
    Description: https://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/id-0054
    Description: https://oasishub.co/dataset/surface-water-flooding-footprinthurricane-harvey-august-2017-jba
    Description: https://www.wasser.sachsen.de/hochwassergefahrenkarte-11915.html
    Keywords: ddc:551.48 ; decision support ; extreme events ; integrated flood risk management ; risk assessment
    Language: English
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  • 22
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    How certain are El Niño–Southern Oscillation frequency changes in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models? (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-06
    Description: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important modes of climate variability on interannual timescales. We aim to find out whether a change in ENSO frequency can be predicted for the nearer future. We analyse the unforced pre‐industrial control run and the forced 1%/year CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 increase run for an ensemble of 43 general circulation models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We assume that the uncertainty of ENSO frequency trend estimates from an ensemble is caused by apparent trends as well as model differences. The part of the uncertainty caused by apparent trends is estimated from the pre‐industrial control simulations. As a measure for ENSO frequency, we use the number of El Niño‐ and La Niña‐like months in a moving 30‐year time window. Its linear decadal trend is calculated for every member. The multimember mean of the trend for both experiments is less than 0.7 events per decade. Given that the standard error is of the same order of magnitude, we consider this a negligible trend. The uncertainties are large in both experiments and we can attribute most of the intermember variability to apparent trends due to natural variability rather than different model reactions to CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 forcing. This means that the impact of intermodel differences might have been overstated in previous studies. Apparent trends make it very difficult to make reliable predictions of changes in ENSO frequency based on 120‐year time series.
    Description: The 1pctCO2 and piControl ensembles from CMIP6 are analysed for 43 models with a focus on changes in ENSO frequency. We find that most of the intermember variability can be attributed to natural variability instead of model differences. Therefore, the uncertainty can only marginally be reduced and it is very difficult to reliably predict changes in ENSO frequency on a timescale of 150 years.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6841964
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; climate change ; CMIP6 ; ENSO ; ENSO frequency
    Language: English
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  • 23
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    Small lateral air pressure gradients generated by a large chamber system have a strong effect on CO2 transport in soil (2023)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-09
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Gas transport in soils is usually assumed to be purely diffusive, although several studies have shown that non‐diffusive processes can significantly enhance soil gas transport. These processes include barometric air pressure changes, wind‐induced pressure pumping and static air pressure fields generated by wind interacting with obstacles. The associated pressure gradients in the soil can cause advective gas fluxes that are much larger than diffusive fluxes. However, the contributions of the respective transport processes are difficult to separate. We developed a large chamber system to simulate pressure fields and investigate their influence on soil gas transport. The chamber consists of four subspaces in which pressure is regulated by fans that blow air in or out of the chamber. With this setup, we conducted experiments with oscillating and static pressure fields. CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentrations were measured along two soil profiles beneath the chamber. We found a significant relationship between static lateral pressure gradients and the change in the CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 profiles (R〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 = 0.53; 〈italic toggle="no"〉p〈/italic〉‐value 〈2e‐16). Even small pressure gradients between −1 and 1 Pa relative to ambient pressure resulted in an increase or decrease in CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentrations of 8% on average in the upper soil, indicating advective flow of air in the pore space. Positive pressure gradients resulted in decreasing, negative pressure gradients in increasing CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentrations. The concentration changes were probably caused by an advective flow field in the soil beneath the chamber generated by the pressure gradients. No effect of oscillating pressure fields was observed in this study. The results indicate that static lateral pressure gradients have a substantial impact on soil gas transport and therefore are an important driver of gas exchange between soil and atmosphere. Lateral pressure gradients in a comparable range can be induced under windy conditions when wind interacts with terrain features. They can also be caused by chambers used for flux measurements at high wind speed or by fans used for head‐space mixing within the chambers, which yields biased flux estimates.〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:631.4 ; advective flux ; chamber flux measurements ; static air pressure fields ; wind‐induced pressure pumping
    Language: English
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  • 24
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    East Asian summer precipitation in AWI‐CM3: Comparison with observations and CMIP6 models (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-13
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Owing to the complicated spatial–temporal characteristics of East Asian precipitation (EAP), climate models have limited skills in simulating the modern Asian climate. This consequently leads to large uncertainties in simulations of the past EAP variation and future projections. Here, we explore the performance of the newly developed Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model, version 3 (AWI‐CM3) in simulating the climatological summer EAP. To test whether the model's skill depends on its atmosphere resolution, we design two AWI‐CM3 simulations with different horizontal resolutions. The result shows that both simulations have acceptable performance in simulating the summer mean EAP, generally better than the majority of individual models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). However, for the monthly EAP from June to August, AWI‐CM3 exhibits a decayed skill, which is due to the subseasonal movement of the western Pacific subtropical high bias. The higher‐resolution AWI‐CM3 simulation shows an overall improvement relative to the one performed at a relatively lower resolution in all aspects taken into account regarding the EAP. We conclude that AWI‐CM3 is a suitable tool for exploring the EAP for the observational period. Having verified the model's skill for modern climate, we suggest employing the AWI‐CM3, especially with high atmosphere resolution, both for applications in paleoclimate studies and future projections.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉This figure shows the skill scores of AWI‐CM3 and CMIP6 models in simulating the climatological summer East Asian precipitation (EAP), which indicates that AWI‐CM3 simulations perform better than most CMIP6 individual models for the summer mean EAP, while AWI‐CM3's skills decay from June to August.〈boxed-text position="anchor" content-type="graphic" id="joc8075-blkfxd-0001" xml:lang="en"〉 〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:08998418:media:joc8075:joc8075-toc-0001"〉 〈alt-text〉image〈/alt-text〉 〈/graphic〉 〈/boxed-text〉〈/p〉
    Description: National Natural Science Foundation of China http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001809
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM
    Description: Helmholtz Program
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: China Scholarship Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004543
    Description: https://opendata.dwd.de/climate_environment/GPCC/html/fulldata-monthly_v2022_doi_download.html
    Description: https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/hrg/cru_ts_4.05
    Description: http://aphrodite.st.hirosaki-u.ac.jp/products.html
    Description: https://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-55/index_en.html
    Description: https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; AWI‐CM3 ; CMIP6 ; East Asia ; summer precipitation
    Language: English
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  • 25
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    Redoxtrons – An experimental system to study redox processes within the capillary fringe (2023)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-18
    Description: Spatiotemporal characterisation of the soil redox status within the capillary fringe (CF) is a challenging task. Air‐filled porosities (ε), oxygen concentration (O〈sub〉2〈/sub〉) and soil redox potential (EH) are interrelated soil variables within active biogeochemical domains such as the CF. We investigated the impact of water table (WT) rise and drainage in an undisturbed topsoil and subsoil sample taken from a Calcaric Gleysol for a period of 46 days. We merged 1D (EH and matric potential) and 2D (O〈sub〉2〈/sub〉) systems to monitor at high spatiotemporal resolution redox dynamics within self‐constructed redoxtron housings and complemented the data set by a 3D pore network characterization using X‐ray microtomography (X‐ray μCT). Depletion of O〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 was faster in the organic matter‐ and clay‐rich aggregated topsoil and the CF extended 〉10 cm above the artificial WT. The homogeneous and less‐aggregated subsoil extended only 4 cm above the WT as indicated by ε–O〈sub〉2〈/sub〉–EH data during saturation. After drainage, 2D O〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 imaging revealed a fast aeration towards the lower depths of the topsoil, which agrees with the connected ε derived by X‐ray μCT (ε〈sub〉CT_conn〈/sub〉) of 14.9% of the total porosity. However, small‐scaled anoxic domains with O〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 saturation 〈5% were apparent even after lowering the WT (down to 0.25 cm〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 in size) for 23 days. These domains remained a nucleus for reducing soil conditions (E〈sub〉H〈/sub〉 〈 −100 mV), which made it challenging to characterise the soil redox status in the CF. In contrast, the subsoil aeration reached O〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 saturation after 8 days for the complete soil volume. Values of ε〈sub〉CT_conn〈/sub〉 around zero in the subsoil highlighted that soil aeration was independent of this parameter suggesting that other variables such as microbial activity must be considered when predicting the soil redox status from ε alone. The use of redoxtrons in combination with localised redox‐measurements and image based pore space analysis resulted in a better 2D/3D characterisation of the pore system and related O〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 transport properties. This allowed us to analyse the distribution and activity of microbiological niches highly associated with the spatiotemporal variable redox dynamics in soil environments. Highlights: The time needed to turn from reducing to oxidising (period where all platinum electrodes feature E〈sub〉H〈/sub〉 〉 300 mV) condition differ for two samples with contrasting soil structure. The subsoil with presumably low O〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 consumption rates aerated considerably faster than the topsoil and exclusively by O〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 diffusion through medium‐ and fine‐sized pores. To derive the soil redox status based upon the triplet ε–O〈sub〉2〈/sub〉–E〈sub〉H〈/sub〉 is challenging at present in heterogeneous soil domains and larger soil volumes than 250 cm〈sup〉3〈/sup〉. Undisturbed soil sampling along with 2D/3D redox measurement systems (e.g., redoxtrons) improve our understanding of redox dynamics within the capillary fringe.
    Keywords: ddc:631.4 ; environmental monitoring ; incubation experiments ; redox processes ; soil reducing conditions ; undisturbed soil ; X‐ray microtomography
    Language: English
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  • 26
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    The dilemma of analytical method changes for soil organic carbon in long‐term experiments (2023)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-17
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈sec xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="ejss13362-sec-1003" xml:lang="en"〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉Long‐term experiments (LTEs) have provided data to modellers and agronomists to investigate changes and dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC) under different cropping systems. As treatment changes have occurred due to agricultural advancements, so too have analytical soil methods. This may lead to method bias over time, which could affect the robust interpretation of data and conclusions drawn. This study aims to quantify differences in SOC due to changes in dry combustion methods over time, using soil samples of a LTE established in 1963 that focuses on mineral and organic fertilizer management in the temperate zone of Northeast Germany. For this purpose, 1059 soil samples, collected between 1976 and 2008, have been analysed twice, once with their historical laboratory method right after sampling, and a second time in 2016 when all samples were analysed using the same elementary analyser. In 9 of 11 soil sampling campaigns, a paired 〈italic toggle="no"〉t〈/italic〉‐test provided evidence for significant differences in the historical SOC values when compared with the re‐analysed concentrations of the same LTE sample. In the sampling years 1988 and 2004, the historical analysis obtained about 0.9 g kg〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉 lower SOC compared with the re‐analysed one. For 1990 and 1998, this difference was about 0.4 g kg〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉. Correction factors, an approach often used to correct for different analytical techniques, could only be applied for 5 of 11 sampling campaigns to account for constant and proportional systematic method error. For this particular LTE, the interpretation of SOC changes due to agronomic management (here fertilization) deviates depending on the analytical method used, which may weaken the explanatory power of the historical data. We demonstrate that analytical method changes over time present one of many challenges in the interpretation of time series data of SOC dynamics. Therefore, LTE site managers need to ensure providing all necessary protocols and data in order to retrace method changes and if necessary recalculate SOC.〈/p〉 〈/sec〉〈sec xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" id="ejss13362-sec-0003" xml:lang="en"〉 〈title〉Highlights〈/title〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉〈list list-type="bullet" id="ejss13362-list-0001"〉 〈list-item id="ejss13362-li-0001"〉〈p〉A total of 1059 LTE soil samples taken between 1976 and 2008 were re‐analysed for SOC in 2016〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item id="ejss13362-li-0002"〉〈p〉Several methodological changes for SOC determination led to significant different SOC concentration in the same sample〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item id="ejss13362-li-0003"〉〈p〉Interpretation and time series of LTE soil data suffer from consideration of analytical method changes and poor documentation of the same〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item id="ejss13362-li-0004"〉〈p〉Soil archive establishment, thorough method protocols and diligent proficiency testing after soil method changes ameliorate the dilemma〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉〈/p〉 〈/sec〉
    Description: Brandenburger Staatsministerium für Wissenschaft, Forschung und Kultur http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004581
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004937
    Description: https://doi.org/10.4228/zalf-acge-b683
    Keywords: ddc:631.4 ; Bland–Altman ; carbon stocks ; data trueness ; Deming regression ; method bias ; soil archive ; soil survey
    Language: English
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  • 27
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    Impact of Aeolus wind lidar observations on the representation of the West African monsoon circulation in the ECMWF and DWD forecasting systems (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-11-17
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉〈italic toggle="no"〉Aeolus〈/italic〉 is the first satellite mission to acquire vertical profiles of horizontal line‐of‐sight winds globally and thus fills an important gap in the Global Observing System, most notably in the Tropics. This study explores the impact of this dataset on analyses and forecasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), focusing specifically on the West African Monsoon (WAM) circulation during the boreal summers of 2019 and 2020. The WAM is notoriously challenging to forecast and is characterized by prominent and robust large‐scale circulation features such as the African Easterly Jet North (AEJ‐North) and Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ). Assimilating 〈italic toggle="no"〉Aeolus〈/italic〉 generally improves the prediction of zonal winds in both forecasting systems, especially for lead times above 24 h. These improvements are related to systematic differences in the representation of the two jets, with the AEJ‐North weakened at its southern flank in the western Sahel in the ECMWF analysis, while no obvious systematic differences are seen in the DWD analysis. In addition, the TEJ core is weakened in the ECMWF analysis and strengthened on its southern edge in the DWD analysis. The regions where the influence of 〈italic toggle="no"〉Aeolus〈/italic〉 on the analysis is greatest correspond to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) region for ECMWF and generally the upper troposphere for DWD. In addition, we show the presence of an altitude‐ and orbit‐dependent bias in the Rayleigh‐clear channel, which causes the zonal winds to speed up and slow down diurnally. Applying a temperature‐dependent bias correction to this channel contributes to a more accurate representation of the diurnal cycle and improved prediction of the WAM winds. These improvements are encouraging for future investigations of the influence of 〈italic toggle="no"〉Aeolus〈/italic〉 data on African Easterly Waves and associated Mesoscale Convective Systems.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Forecasting in tropical Africa is hampered by large model errors and low availability of conventional observations. The assimilation of 〈italic〉Aeolus〈/italic〉 wind data into the operational ECMWF system leads to a consistent root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) reduction of the order of 2% in +48 h zonal wind forecasts over the region during boreal summer 2019, including the African and Tropical Easterly Jets (AEJ, TEJ) and subtropical jets (STJ). 〈boxed-text position="anchor" id="qj4442-blkfxd-0001" content-type="graphic" xml:lang="en"〉〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:00359009:media:qj4442:qj4442-toc-0001"〉 〈/graphic〉 〈/boxed-text〉〈/p〉
    Description: https://aeolus-ds.eo.esa.int/oads/access/collection
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; aeolus satellite ; doppler wind lidar ; data assimilation ; numerical weather prediction impact ; African easterly jet ; tropical easterly jet ; observing system experiments
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  • 28
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    Optimised use of data fusion and memory‐based learning with an Austrian soil library for predictions with infrared data (2023)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-12
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Infrared spectroscopy in the visible to near‐infrared (vis–NIR) and mid‐infrared (MIR) regions is a well‐established approach for the prediction of soil properties. Different data fusion and training approaches exist, and the optimal procedures are yet undefined and may depend on the heterogeneity present in the set and on the considered scale. The objectives were to test the usefulness of partial least squares regressions (PLSRs) for soil organic carbon (SOC), total carbon (C〈sub〉t〈/sub〉), total nitrogen (N〈sub〉t〈/sub〉) and pH using vis–NIR and MIR spectroscopy for an independent validation after standard calibration (use of a general PLSR model) or using memory‐based learning (MBL) with and without spiking for a national spectral database. Data fusion approaches were simple concatenation of spectra, outer product analysis (OPA) and model averaging. In total, 481 soils from an Austrian forest soil archive were measured in the vis–NIR and MIR regions, and regressions were calculated. Fivefold calibration‐validation approaches were carried out with a region‐related split of spectra to implement independent validations with n ranging from 47 to 99 soils in different folds. MIR predictions were generally superior over vis–NIR predictions. For all properties, optimal predictions were obtained with data fusion, with OPA and spectra concatenation outperforming model averaging. The greatest robustness of performance was found for OPA and MBL with spiking with 〈italic toggle="no"〉R〈/italic〉〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 ≥ 0.77 (N), 0.85 (SOC), 0.86 (pH) and 0.88 (C〈sub〉t〈/sub〉) in the validations of all folds. Overall, the results indicate that the combination of OPA for vis–NIR and MIR spectra with MBL and spiking has a high potential to accurately estimate properties when using large‐scale soil spectral libraries as reference data. However, the reduction of cost‐effectiveness using two spectrometers needs to be weighed against the potential increase in accuracy compared to a single MIR spectroscopy approach.〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:631.4 ; data fusion ; independent validation ; infrared spectroscopy ; MBL ; nitrogen ; outer product analysis ; pH ; soil organic carbon ; spiking ; total carbon
    Language: English
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  • 29
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    On the representation of atmospheric circulation modes in regional climate models over Western Europe (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-12-16
    Description: Atmospheric circulation is a key driver of climate variability, and the representation of atmospheric circulation modes in regional climate models (RCMs) can enhance the credibility of regional climate projections. This study examines the representation of large‐scale atmospheric circulation modes in Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project phase 5 RCMs once driven by ERA‐Interim, and by two general circulation models (GCMs). The study region is Western Europe and the circulation modes are classified using the Promax rotated T‐mode principal component analysis. The results indicate that the RCMs can replicate the classified atmospheric modes as obtained from ERA5 reanalysis, though with biases dependent on the data providing the lateral boundary condition and the choice of RCM. When the boundary condition is provided by ERA‐Interim that is more consistent with observations, the simulated map types and the associating time series match well with their counterparts from ERA5. Further, on average, the multi‐model ensemble mean of the analysed RCMs, driven by ERA‐Interim, indicated a slight improvement in the representation of the modes obtained from ERA5. Conversely, when the RCMs are driven by the GCMs that are models without assimilation of observational data, the representation of the atmospheric modes, as obtained from ERA5, is relatively less accurate compared to when the RCMs are driven by ERA‐Interim. This suggests that the biases stem from the GCMs. On average, the representation of the modes was not improved in the multi‐model ensemble mean of the five analysed RCMs driven by either of the GCMs. However, when the best‐performed RCMs were selected on average the ensemble mean indicated a slight improvement. Moreover, the presence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the simulated modes depends also on the lateral boundary conditions. The relationship between the modes and the NAO was replicated only when the RCMs were driven by reanalysis. The results indicate that the forcing model is the main factor in reproducing the atmospheric circulation.
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; general circulation model ; large‐scale atmospheric circulation modes ; multi‐model ensemble ; regional climate model ; Western Europe
    Language: English
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  • 30
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    Importance of catchment hydrological processes and calibration of hydrological‐hydrodynamic rainfall‐runoff models in small rural catchments (2023)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-19
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉In recent years, many two‐dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic models have been extended to include the direct rainfall method (DRM). This allows their application as a hydrological‐hydrodynamic model for the determination of floodplains in one model system. In previous studies on DRM, the role of catchment hydrological processes (CaHyPro) and its interaction with the calibration process was not investigated in detail. In the present, case‐oriented study, the influence of the spatiotemporal distribution of the processes precipitation and runoff formation in combination with the 2D model HEC‐RAS is investigated. In a further step, a conceptual approach for event‐based interflow is integrated. The study is performed on the basis of a single storm event in a small rural catchment (low mountain range, 38 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉) in Hesse (Germany). The model results are evaluated against six quality criteria and compared to a simplified baseline model. Finally, the calibrated improved model is contrasted with a calibrated baseline model. The results show the enhancement of the model results due to the integration of the CaHyPro and highlight its interplay with the calibrated model parameters.〈/p〉
    Keywords: ddc:551.48 ; 2D hydrodynamic modeling ; calibration ; direct rainfall modeling ; hydrological processes ; radar data ; runoff formation
    Language: English
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  • 31
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    Understanding summer wind systems over the eastern Mediterranean in a high‐resolution climate simulation (2022)
    Latt, Melissa R. ; Hochman, Assaf ; Caldas‐Alvarez, Alberto ; [et al.]
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-12
    Description: Regional and local wind systems are often complex, particularly near coastal areas with a highly variable orography. Thus, the realistic representation of regional wind systems in weather and climate models is of strong relevance. Here, we evaluate the ability of a 13‐year convection‐permitting climate simulation in reproducing the interaction of several regional summer wind systems over the complex orography in the eastern Mediterranean region. The COSMO‐CLM simulations are driven by hourly ERA‐5 reanalysis and have a spatial resolution of 2.8 and 7.0 km. The simulated near‐surface wind fields are compared with unique very high‐resolution wind observations collected within the “Dead Sea Research Venue” project (DESERVE) and data from the Israel Meteorological Service synop network. The high‐resolution COSMO‐CLM simulations largely reproduce the main characteristics of the regional wind systems (Mediterranean and Dead Sea breeze, slope winds in the Judean Mountains and winds along the Jordan Rift valley), whereas ERA‐5 is only able to represent the Mediterranean Sea breeze. The high‐resolution simulations substantially improve the representation of regional winds, particularly over complex orography. Indeed, the 2.8 km simulation outperforms the 7.0 km run, on 88% of the days. Two mid‐July 2015 case studies show that only the 2.8 simulation can realistically simulate the penetration of the Mediterranean Sea Breeze into the Jordan Rift valley and complex interactions with other wind systems like the Dead Sea breeze. Our results may have profound implications for regional weather and climate prediction since very high‐resolution information seems to be necessary to reproduce the main summertime climatic features in this region. We envisage that such simulations may also be required at other regions with complex orography.
    Description: In this paper we show that COSMO‐CLM regional climate model simulations at 7.0 (CLM‐7.0) and 2.8km (CLM‐2.8) resolution can realistically reproduce near‐surface regional and local wind systems over the complex orography of the eastern Mediterranean as opposite to coarser resolutions (ERA‐5, 31 km). The Mediterranean and local Dead Sea breezes, slope winds over the Judean Mountains, and winds along the Jordan Rift valley are well represented both climatologically and on individual days. CLM‐2.8 captures the small‐scale variability of the wind field better than CLM‐7.0 particularly near the Dead Sea and on 88% of the days CLM‐2.8 represents wind speed even more realistically than CLM‐7.0. image
    Description: German Helmholtz Association (“Changing Earth” program)
    Description: AXA Research Fund http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001961
    Description: Ministry of Science, Research and Arts
    Description: Helmholtz Association of German Research Centers
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; complex orography ; convection permitting ; COSMO‐CLM ; Dead Sea ; eastern Mediterranean ; grid spacing ; regional climate modelling ; sea breeze
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  • 32
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    Stratus over rolling terrain: Large‐eddy simulation reference and sensitivity to grid spacing and numerics (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-15
    Description: The formation of low stratus cloud over idealized hills is investigated using numerical model simulations. The main driver for the cloud formation is radiative cooling due to outgoing longwave radiation. Despite a purely horizontal flow, the advection terms in the prognostic equations for heat and moisture produce vertical mixing across the upper cloud edge, leading to a loss of cloud water content. This behavior is depicted via a budget analysis. More precisely, this spurious mixing is caused by the diffusive error of the advection scheme in regions where the sloping surfaces of the terrain‐following vertical coordinate intersect the cloud top. This study shows that the intensity of the (spurious) numerical diffusion depends strongly on the horizontal resolution, the order of the advection schemes, and the choice of scalar advection scheme. A large‐eddy simulation with 4‐m horizontal resolution serves as a reference. For horizontal resolutions of a few hundred meters and simulations carried out with a model setup as used in numerical weather prediction, a strong reduction of the simulated liquid‐water path is observed. In order to keep the (spurious) numerical diffusion at coarser resolutions small, at least a fifth‐order advection scheme should be used. In the present case, a weighted essentially nonoscillatory scalar advection scheme turns out to increase the numerical diffusion along a sharp cloud edge compared with an upwind scheme. Furthermore, the choice of vertical coordinate has a strong impact on the simulated liquid‐water path over orography. With a modified definition of the sigma coordinate, it is possible to produce cloud water where the classical sigma coordinate does not allow any cloud formation.
    Description: Diffusive errors of the advection scheme reduce the cloud water content of low stratus over idealized hills. This is due to the terrain‐following vertical coordinate and depends strongly on the horizontal resolution. Orographic features should be represented by at least 𝒪(10) grid points and a fifth‐order advection scheme (or higher) should be used. A weighted essentially nonoscillatory scalar advection scheme increases numerical diffusion along a sharp cloud edge compared with an upwind scheme. Modifying the definition of the sigma coordinate leads to a strong gain in the simulated liquid‐water path.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Hans Ertel Centre for Weather Research
    Keywords: ddc:551.5 ; advection ; fog ; low stratus ; resolution ; rolling terrain ; vertical coordinate
    Language: English
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    Using hydro‐morphological assessment parameters to estimate the flood‐induced vulnerability of watercourses ‐ a methodological approach across three spatial scales in Germany and the Czech Republic (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-22
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉In addition to their ecological importance, rivers and streams have always been used in diverse ways by humans, resulting in the development of settlements and their connected built environments along many of the world's watercourses. During heavy rainfall, buildings, traffic infrastructure and water‐related infrastructure are exposed to potential hazards in the form of (flash) floods. In contrast to near‐natural watercourses, anthropogenically modified channels in urban areas are particularly susceptible to damage by flooding. Previous damage assessments have highlighted the need to forecast such damage to watercourses in order to identify critical areas and justify the selection and expansion of adaptation measures. Within the scope of the current study, we have developed a method based on the hydro‐morphological properties of watercourses to make transferable estimates of the economic damage potential based on ecologically‐relevant parameters. Using a scale‐specific cause‐effect analysis, we have identified characteristics of the watercourse type and adjacent structures as well as construction‐related properties of reinforcements that can increase the damage potential during flooding. In this way, we are able to show that several influencing factors determine the vulnerability of watercourses: in addition to the specific longitudinal gradient and size (macroscale) of various watercourse types, damage‐relevant boundary conditions in watercourse sections (mesoscale) and the resistance of typical bed and bank constructions are also important, reflecting the specific structural conditions. Taking rivers in Germany and the Czech Republic as case studies, in the following, we review the local identification of critical areas and describe the necessary data management. The presented “Hydro‐morphological based Vulnerability Assessment‐Concept (HyVAC)” can contribute to the flood damage prevention at watercourses by utilizing existing basic data to the greatest possible extent and thus is suitable for preliminary investigations according to the EC Flood Risk Management Directive.〈/p〉
    Description: STRIMA II
    Description: EU‐funded research project
    Keywords: ddc:551.48 ; assessment parameters ; flood risk management ; hydro‐morphology ; vulnerability ; watercourses
    Language: English
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  • 34
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    BODIUM—A systemic approach to model the dynamics of soil functions (2023)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The increasing demand for biomass for food, animal feed, fibre and bioenergy requires optimization of soil productivity, while at the same time, protecting other soil functions such as nutrient cycling and buffering, carbon storage, habitat for biological activity and water filter and storage. Therefore, one of the main challenges for sustainable agriculture is to produce high yields while maintaining all the other soil functions. Mechanistic simulation models are an essential tool to fully understand and predict the complex interactions between physical, biological and chemical processes of soils that generate those functions. We developed a soil model to simulate the impact of various agricultural management options and climate change on soil functions by integrating the relevant processes mechanistically and in a systemic way. As a special feature, we include the dynamics of soil structure induced by tillage and biological activity, which is especially relevant in arable soils. The model operates on a 1D soil profile consisting of a number of discrete layers with dynamic thickness. We demonstrate the model performance by simulating crop growth, root growth, nutrient and water uptake, nitrogen cycling, soil organic matter turnover, microbial activity, water distribution and soil structure dynamics in a long‐term field experiment including different crops and different types and levels of fertilization. The model is able to capture essential features that are measured regularly including crop yield, soil organic carbon, and soil nitrogen. In this way, the plausibility of the implemented processes and their interactions is confirmed. Furthermore, we present the results of explorative simulations comparing scenarios with and without tillage events to analyse the effect of soil structure on soil functions. Since the model is process‐based, we are confident that the model can also be used to predict quantities that have not been measured or to estimate the effect of management measures and climate states not yet been observed. The model thus has the potential to predict the site‐specific impact of management decisions on soil functions, which is of great importance for the development of a sustainable agriculture that is currently also on the agenda of the ‘Green Deal’ at the European level.〈/p〉
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: https://git.ufz.de/bodium/bodium_v1.0
    Keywords: ddc:631.4 ; agriculture ; computational model ; simulation ; soil microbiology ; soil structure ; sustainable soil
    Language: English
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  • 35
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    A multi‐parameter approach to quantify riverbed clogging and vertical hyporheic connectivity (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-26
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Riverbed clogging is key to assessing vertical connectivity in the hyporheic zone and is often quantified using single‐parameter or qualitative approaches. However, clogging is driven by multiple, interacting physical and bio‐geochemical parameters, which do not allow for a conclusive assessment of hyporheic connectivity with single‐parameter approaches. In addition, existing qualitative assessments lack transparency and repeatability. This study introduces a Multi‐Parameter Approach to quantify Clogging and vertical hyporheic connectivity (MultiPAC), which builds on standardized measurements of physical (grain size characteristics, porosity, hydraulic conductivity) and bio‐geochemical (interstitial dissolved oxygen) parameters. We apply MultiPAC at three gravel‐bed rivers and show how the set of parameters provides a representative appreciation of physical riverbed clogging, thus quantifying vertical hyporheic connectivity. However, more parameters are required to fully characterize biological clogging. In addition, MultiPAC locates clogged layers in the hyporheic zone through multi‐parameter vertical profiles over the riverbed depth. The discussion outlines the relevance of MultiPAC to guide field surveys.〈/p〉
    Description: https://github.com/Ecohydraulics/kf-converter-w-flopy
    Keywords: ddc:550.724 ; colmation ; dissolved oxygen ; grain size ; hydraulic conductivity ; porosity ; siltation
    Language: English
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  • 36
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    Projected changes in synoptic circulations over Europe and their implications for summer precipitation: A CMIP6 perspective (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-30
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Projected changes in summer precipitation deficits partly depend on alterations in synoptic circulations. Here, the automated Jenkinson–Collison classification is used to assess the ability of 21 global climate models (GCMs) to capture the frequency of recurring circulation types (CTs) and their implications for European daily precipitation amounts in summer (JJA). The ability of the GCMs to reproduce the observed present‐day climate features is evaluated first. Most GCMs capture the observed links between the mean CTs directional flow characteristics and the occurrence of dry days and related dry months. The most robust relationships are found for anticyclonic and easterly CTs which are generally associated with higher‐than‐average occurrences of dry conditions. Future changes in summer CTs' frequencies are estimated in the high‐emission SSP5‐8.5 scenario for the sake of a high signal‐to‐noise ratio. Our results reveal consistent changes, mainly in the zonal CTs. A robust decrease in frequency of the westerlies and an increase in the frequency of easterly CTs favour more continental, dry and warm air masses over central Europe. These dynamical changes are shown to enhance the projected summer drying over central and southern Europe.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Summer large‐scale circulations are derived over Europe using an automated classification. Spatial characteristics of the patterns and their influence on dry days are investigated. Future changes are explored based on global climate models. The predicted drier summers in Europe are found to be influenced by consistent changes in west‐easterly circulations.〈boxed-text position="anchor" content-type="graphic" id="joc8033-blkfxd-0001" xml:lang="en"〉 〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:08998418:media:joc8033:joc8033-toc-0001"〉 〈/graphic〉 〈/boxed-text〉〈/p〉
    Description: EU International Training Network (ITN) Climate Advanced Forecasting of sub‐seasonal Extremes (CAFE)
    Description: H2020 Marie Skłodowska‐Curie Actions
    Description: https://github.com/PedroLormendez/jcclass
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; circulation patterns ; climate change ; precipitation ; weather extremes
    Language: English
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    Comparison of temperature and wind observations in the Tropics in a perfect‐model, global EnKF data assimilation system (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-12
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Flow‐dependent errors in tropical analyses and short‐range forecasts are analysed using global observing‐system simulation experiments assimilating only temperature, only winds, and both data types using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) and a perfect model framework. The idealised, homogeneous observation network provides profiles of wind and temperature data from the nature run for January 2018 using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM) forced by the observed sea‐surface temperature. The results show that the assimilation of abundant wind observations in a perfect model makes the temperature data in the Tropics largely uninformative. Furthermore, the assimilation of wind data reduces the background errors in specific humidity twice as much as the assimilation of temperature observations. In all experiments, the largest analysis uncertainties and the largest short‐term forecast errors are found in regions of strong vertical and longitudinal gradients in the background wind, especially in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere over the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent. The horizontal error correlation scales are on average short throughout the troposphere, just several hundred km. The correlation scales of the wind variables in precipitating regions are half of those in nonprecipitating regions. In precipitating regions, the correlations are elongated vertically, especially for the wind variables. Strong positive cross‐correlations between temperature and specific humidity in the precipitating regions are explained using the Clausius–Clapeyron equation.〈/p〉
    Description: China Scholarship Council http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004543
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation ; forecast‐error correlations ; mass and wind observations ; temperature–moisture cross‐correlations ; Tropics
    Language: English
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  • 38
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    Temperature and soil moisture change microbial allocation of pesticide‐derived carbon (2023)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-18
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Temperature and soil moisture are known to control pesticide mineralization. Half‐life times (DT〈sub〉50〈/sub〉) derived from pesticide mineralization curves generally indicate longer residence times at low soil temperature and moisture but do not consider potential changes in the microbial allocation of pesticide‐derived carbon (C). We aimed to determine carbon use efficiency (CUE, formation of new biomass relative to total C uptake) to better understand microbial utilization of pesticide‐derived C under different environmental conditions and to support the conventional description of degradation dynamics based on mineralization. We performed a microcosm experiment at two MCPA (2‐methyl‐4‐chlorophenoxyacetic acid) concentrations (1 and 20 mg kg〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉) and defined 20°C/pF 1.8 as optimal and 10°C/pF 3.5 as limiting environmental conditions. After 4 weeks, 70% of the initially applied MCPA was mineralized under optimal conditions but MCPA mineralization reached less than 25% under limiting conditions. However, under limiting conditions, an increase in CUE was observed, indicating a shift towards anabolic utilization of MCPA‐derived C. In this case, increased C assimilation implied C storage or the formation of precursor compounds to support resistance mechanisms, rather than actual growth since we did not find an increase in the 〈italic toggle="no"〉tfdA〈/italic〉 gene relevant to MCPA degradation. We were able to confirm the assumption that under limiting conditions, C assimilation increases relative to mineralization and that C redistribution, may serve as an explanation for the difference between mineralization and MCPA dissipation‐derived degradation dynamics. In addition, by introducing CUE to the temperature‐ and moisture‐dependent degradation of pesticides, we can capture the underlying microbial constraints and adaptive mechanisms to changing environmental conditions.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Changing environmental conditions alter the MCPA degradation dynamics and the allocation of pesticide‐derived carbon to anabolic or catabolic metabolism.〈boxed-text position="anchor" content-type="graphic" id="ejss13417-blkfxd-0001" xml:lang="en"〉 〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:13510754:media:ejss13417:ejss13417-toc-0001"〉 〈/graphic〉 〈/boxed-text〉〈/p〉
    Description: Collaborative Research Center 1253 CAMPOS (DFG)
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: DFG Priority Program 2322 “Soil System”
    Description: Ellrichshausen Foundation
    Description: Research Training Group “Integrated Hydrosystem modeling”
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5081655
    Keywords: ddc:631.4 ; anabolism ; carbon use efficiency ; catabolism ; effect of soil moisture and temperature ; gene‐centric process model ; MCPA biodegradation
    Language: English
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  • 39
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    Reducing tillage intensity benefits the soil micro‐ and mesofauna in a global meta‐analysis (2022)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-22
    Description: Soil fauna drives crucial processes of energy and nutrient cycling in agricultural systems, and influences the quality of crops and pest incidence. Soil tillage is the most influential agricultural manipulation of soil structure, and has a profound influence on soil biology and its provision of ecosystem services. The objective of this study was to quantify through meta‐analyses the effects of reducing tillage intensity on density and diversity of soil micro‐ and mesofaunal communities, and how these effects vary among different pedoclimatic conditions and interact with concurrent management practices. We present the results of a global meta‐analysis of available literature data on the effects of different tillage intensities on taxonomic and functional groups of soil micro‐ and mesofauna. We collected paired observations (conventional vs. reduced forms of tillage/no‐tillage) from 133 studies across 33 countries. Our results show that reduced tillage intensity or no‐tillage increases the total density of springtails (+35%), mites (+23%), and enchytraeids (+37%) compared to more intense tillage methods. The meta‐analyses for different nematode feeding groups, life‐forms of springtails, and taxonomic mite groups showed higher densities under reduced forms of tillage compared to conventional tillage on omnivorous nematodes (+53%), epedaphic (+81%) and hemiedaphic (+84%) springtails, oribatid (+43%) and mesostigmatid (+57%) mites. Furthermore, the effects of reduced forms of tillage on soil micro‐ and mesofauna varied with depth, climate and soil texture, as well as with tillage method, tillage frequency, concurrent fertilisation, and herbicide application. Our findings suggest that reducing tillage intensity can have positive effects on the density of micro‐ and mesofaunal communities in areas subjected to long‐term intensive cultivation practices. Our results will be useful to support decision making on the management of soil faunal communities and will facilitate modelling efforts of soil biology in global agroecosystems. HIGHLIGHTS Global meta‐analysis to estimate the effect of reducing tillage intensity on micro‐ and mesofauna Reduced tillage or no‐tillage has positive effects on springtail, mite and enchytraeid density Effects vary among nematode feeding groups, springtail life forms and mite suborders Effects vary with texture, climate and depth and depend on the tillage method and frequency
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: https://doi.org/10.20387/bonares-eh0f-hj28
    Keywords: ddc:631.4 ; agricultural land use ; conservation agriculture ; conventional agriculture ; soil biodiversity ; soil cultivation
    Language: English
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    Modelling wind speed across Zambia: Implications for wind energy (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-25
    Description: Wind energy is a key option in global dialogues about climate change mitigation. Here, we combined observations from surface wind stations, reanalysis datasets, and state‐of‐the‐art regional climate models from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX Africa) to study the current and future wind energy potential in Zambia. We found that winds are dominated by southeasterlies and are rarely strong with an average speed of 2.8 m·s〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉. When we converted the observed surface wind speed to a turbine hub height of 100 m, we found a ~38% increase in mean wind speed for the period 1981–2000. Further, both simulated and observed wind speed data show statistically significant increments across much of the country. The only areas that divert from this upward trend of wind speeds are the low land terrains of the Eastern Province bordering Malawi. Examining projections of wind power density (WPD), we found that although wind speed is increasing, it is still generally too weak to support large‐scale wind power generation. We found a meagre projected annual average WPD of 46.6 W·m〈sup〉−2〈/sup〉. The highest WPDs of ~80 W·m−2 are projected in the northern and central parts of the country while the lowest are to be expected along the Luangwa valley in agreement with wind speed simulations. On average, Zambia is expected to experience minor WPD increments of 0.004 W·m〈sup〉−2〈/sup〉 per year from 2031 to 2050. We conclude that small‐scale wind turbines that accommodate cut‐in wind speeds of 3.8 m·s〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉 are the most suitable for power generation in Zambia. Further, given the limitations of small wind turbines, they are best suited for rural and suburban areas of the country where obstructions are few, thus making them ideal for complementing the government of the Republic of Zambia's rural electrification efforts.
    Description: Wind speed is very slow in Zambia. It is increasing but remains unlikely to support large commercial wind farms especially not at the 100‐m hub height. Any efforts for wind power generation in Zambia should be towards ultra‐tall wind turbines fitted with larger rotors.
    Description: Alexander von Humboldt‐Stiftung
    Keywords: ddc:333.9 ; CORDEX Africa ; renewable energy ; wind speed ; Zambia
    Language: English
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    Relative contributions of local heat storage and ocean heat transport to cold‐season Arctic Ocean surface energy fluxes in CMIP6 models (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-25
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The Arctic near‐surface air temperature increases most strongly during the cold season, and ocean heat storage has often been cited as a crucial component in linking the ice‐albedo radiative feedback, which is active in summer, and near‐surface air temperature increase in winter, when the lapse rate feedback contributes to Arctic warming. Here, we first estimate how much local heat storage and ocean heat transport contribute to net surface energy fluxes on a seasonal scale in CMIP6 models. We then compare contributions in a base state under weak anthropogenic forcing to a near‐present‐day state in which significant Arctic amplification is simulated. Our analysis indicates that, in a few regions, ocean heat transport plays a larger role for cold‐season net surface energy fluxes compared with local heat storage. Analyzing differences between past and near‐present‐day conditions suggests that the lapse rate feedback, which mainly acts during the cold season in warm water inflow regions, may be more strongly influenced than previously thought by increased ocean heat transport from lower latitudes.〈/p〉
    Description: 〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Arctic Ocean net upward surface energy fluxes in the cold season were decomposed into contributions from local heat storage (yellow, see schematic) and ocean heat transport (red). Our analysis of CMIP6 model output suggests that, in a few inflow regions, ocean heat transport contributes more to cold‐season net surface energy fluxes compared with local heat storage. In parts of these inflow regions, the relative contribution of ocean heat transport increased with time. 〈boxed-text position="anchor" id="qj4496-blkfxd-0001" content-type="graphic" xml:lang="en"〉〈graphic position="anchor" id="jats-graphic-1" xlink:href="urn:x-wiley:00359009:media:qj4496:qj4496-toc-0001"〉 〈/graphic〉 〈/boxed-text〉〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/
    Description: https://nsidc.org/data/g10010
    Keywords: ddc:551.46 ; Arctic amplification ; CMIP6 ; heat storage and transport
    Language: English
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    Validation of the Aeolus L2B Rayleigh winds and ECMWF short‐range forecasts in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere using Loon super pressure balloon observations (2022)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-03
    Description: The novel Aeolus satellite, which carries the first Doppler wind lidar providing profiles of horizontal line‐of‐sight (HLOS) winds, addresses a significant gap in direct wind observations in the global observing system. The gap is particularly critical in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). This article validates the Aeolus Rayleigh–clear wind product and short‐range forecasts of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) with highly accurate winds from the Loon super pressure balloon network at altitudes between 16 and 20 km. Data from 229 individual balloon flights are analysed, applying a collocation criterion of 2 hr and 200 km. The comparison of Aeolus and Loon data shows systematic and random errors of -0.31 and 6.37 m·s〈sup〉-1〈/sup〉, respectively, for the Aeolus Rayleigh–clear winds. The horizontal representativeness error of Aeolus HLOS winds (nearly the zonal wind component) in the UTLS ranges from 0.6–1.1 m·s〈sup〉-1〈/sup〉 depending on the altitude. The comparison of Aeolus and Loon datasets against ECMWF model forecasts suggests that the model systematically underestimates the HLOS winds in the tropical UTLS by about 1 m·s〈sup〉-1〈/sup〉. While Aeolus winds are currently considered as point winds by the ECMWF data assimilation system, the results of the present study demonstrate the need for a more realistic HLOS wind observation operator for assimilating Aeolus winds.
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; Aeolus ; data assimilation ; ECMWF forecasts ; HLOS winds ; Loon ; super pressure balloon observations ; systematic and random errors
    Language: English
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    Hydrodynamic modeling of ephemeral flow in the Iishana channel systems of the Cuvelai Basin—Northern Namibia (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-19
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The transboundary region of the Iishana system in the western Cuvelai Basin, between southern Angola and northern Namibia, is frequently affected by floods at irregular intervals. As a result, the predominantly rural, subsistence farming population has experienced crop failures, human, and economic losses. To date, very little is known about the generation of floods, flood concentration, and stormwater drainage dynamics in this region. In this study, 2D‐hydrodynamic modeling was applied to reconstruct one of the latest major flood events during the rainy season from November 2008 to March 2009 in order to study the runoff behavior and interconnectivity of the Iishana system. The model focused on the eastern part of the Iishana system, which was most affected by floods and flood damage due to the high population density in and around Oshakati, the regional capital. Two main streams were identified noteworthy because they merge and subsequently affect Oshakati. Regarding the simulated flood event water depths vary from 0.1 m to 14 m, with an average of 0.2 m, while water depths above 5 m were attributed to borrow pits. The inundation area ranged up to 1860 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 and the amount of water left after the rainy season on March 25th, 2009, was determined between 0.116 and 0.547 km〈sup〉3〈/sup〉, depending on the amount of evapotranspiration considered in the model. Thus, in the Angolan part of the Iishana system, significantly larger quantities of water are available for longer periods of time during the subsequent dry season, whereas the system in Namibia stores less water, resulting in a shorter water retention period.〈/p〉
    Description: Deutsche Hydrologische Gesellschaft (DHG)
    Description: Freie Universität Berlin http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100007537
    Description: https://dx.doi.org/10.17169/refubium-35737
    Keywords: ddc:551.48 ; flood ; FloodArea11 ; SCS‐CN ; TanDEM‐X ; TRMM
    Language: English
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    The inner life of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is a central component of the atmospheric general circulation, but remarkably little is known about the dynamical and thermodynamical structure of the convergence zone itself. This is true even for the structure of the low‐level convergence that gives the ITCZ its name. Following on from the major international field campaigns in the 1960s and 1970s, we performed extensive atmospheric profiling of the Atlantic ITCZ during a ship‐based measurement campaign aboard the research vessel 〈italic toggle="no"〉SONNE〈/italic〉 in summer 2021. Combining data collected during our north–south crossing of the ITCZ with reanalysis data shows the ITCZ to be a meridionally extended region of intense precipitation, with enhanced surface convergence at its edges rather than in the center. Based on the location of these edges, we construct a composite view of the structure of the Atlantic ITCZ. The ITCZ, far from being simply a region of enhanced deep convection, has a rich inner life, that is, a rich dynamical and thermodynamic structure that changes throughout the course of the year, and has a northern edge that differs systematically from the southern edge.〈/p〉
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Horizon 2020 Framework Programme CONSTRAIN http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010661
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/ZENODO.7051674
    Description: https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47
    Keywords: ddc:551.5 ; ITCZ ; Atlantic ; convergence ; observations ; reanalysis
    Language: English
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  • 45
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    Fifty years after deep‐ploughing: Effects on yield, roots, nutrient stocks and soil structure (2023)
    Blackwell Publishing Ltd | Oxford, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-30
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉Deep‐ploughing far beyond the common depth of 30 cm was used more than 50 years ago in Northern Germany with the aim to break root‐restricting layers and thereby improve access to subsoil water and nutrient resources. We hypothesized that effects of this earlier intervention on soil properties and yields prevailed after 50 years. Hence, we sampled two sandy soils and one silty soil (Cambisols and a Luvisol) of which half of the field had been deep‐ploughed 50 years ago (soils then re‐classified as Treposols). The adjacent other half was not deep‐ploughed and thus served as the control. At all the three sites, both deep‐ploughed and control parts were then conventionally managed over the last 50 years. We assessed yields during the dry year 2019 and additionally in 2020, and rooting intensity at the year of sampling (2019), as well as changes in soil structure, carbon and nutrient stocks in that year. We found that deep‐ploughing improved yields in the dry spell of 2019 at the sandy sites, which was supported by a more general pattern of higher NDVI indices in deep‐ploughed parts for the period from 2016 to 2021 across varying weather conditions. Subsoil stocks of soil organic carbon and total plant‐available phosphorus were enhanced by 21%–199% in the different sites. Root biomass in the subsoil was reduced due to deep‐ploughing at the silty site and was increased or unaffected at the sandy sites. Overall, the effects of deep‐ploughing were site‐specific, with reduced bulk density in the buried topsoil stripes in the subsoil of the sandy sites, but with elevated subsoil density in the silty site. Hence, even 50 years after deep‐ploughing, changes in soil properties are still detectable, although effect size differed among sites.〈/p〉
    Description: BonaRes http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100022576
    Keywords: ddc:631.4 ; aggregates ; carbon sequestration ; deep‐ploughing ; macronutrients ; subsoil ; Treposol
    Language: English
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  • 46
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    Radar‐based heavy precipitation events in Germany and associated circulation patterns (2023)
    John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. | Chichester, UK
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-22
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉As projected by multiple climate models, short‐duration heavy precipitation events (SDHPEs) are expected to intensify particularly quickly under the changing climate posing substantial risk to natural and human systems. Yet over the years, SDHPEs have received less scientific attention than long‐duration heavy precipitation events (LDHPEs), mainly due to the limitations of measurement systems. Our aim is to provide insight into spatial and temporal variability of SDHPEs detected by the radar network of the 〈italic toggle="no"〉Deutscher Wetterdienst〈/italic〉 (DWD) in Germany from 2001 to 2020 as well as to explore their links to circulation patterns (CPs). The study is based on the Catalogue of Radar‐based heavy Rainfall Events (CatRaRE) generated using reprocessed gauge‐adjusted data of the DWD radar network as well as a new numerical method for classifying CPs over Central Europe called “〈italic toggle="no"〉Großwetterlagen〈/italic〉 for Reanalyses” (GWL‐REA). The results have demonstrated that SDHPEs, which are defined based on either locally valid precipitation values with a return period of 5 years (CatRaRE T5) or absolute precipitation values equal to DWD Warning Level 3 (CatRaRE W3), are common phenomena occurring most frequently in the afternoon hours of the summer season. They constitute up to 90% of all heavy precipitation events included in the catalogues covering relatively small areas—the median area of SDHPEs ranges from 22 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 (CatRaRE T5) to 24 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 (CatRaRE W3), while the median area of LDHPEs ranges from 175 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 (CatRaRE W3) to 184 km〈sup〉2〈/sup〉 (CatRaRE T5). As compared to LDHPEs, SDHPEs are generated by a wider spectrum of circulation conditions, including not only cyclonic but also anticyclonic CPs. In the warm season, the anticyclonic CPs, often accompanied by air mass advection from the south, can induce high thermal instability leading to the development of relatively small, isolated convective cells, which often cannot be captured by rain gauge stations.〈/p〉
    Description: Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport (BMDV)
    Description: https://www.dwd.de/DE/leistungen/catrare/catrare.html
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; CatRaRE ; circulation patterns ; GWL‐REA ; heavy precipitation events ; long‐duration precipitation ; radar data ; short‐duration precipitation
    Language: English
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  • 47
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    Simulation data for tracing snowball bifurcation on an earth-like aquaplanet over 4 billion years (2023)
    GFZ Data Services
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-05-04
    Description: The atmospheric concentration of CO2 at which global glaciation (snowball) bifurcation occurs, changes throughout Earth's history, most notably because of the slowly increasing solar luminosity. Quantifying this critical CO2 concentration is not only interesting from a climate dynamics perspective, but also an important prerequisite for understanding past Snowball Earth episodes as well as the conditions for habitability on Earth and other planets. Here we use the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3α in an Aquaplanet configuration to scan for the Snowball bifurcation point for time slices spanning the last 4 billion years, thus quantifying the time evolution of the bifurcation and identifying a qualitative shift in critical state dynamics.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
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  • 48
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    BASD-CMIP6-PE: bias-adjusted and statistically downscaled CMIP6 projections over Peru and Ecuador (2023)
    GFZ Data Services
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-24
    Description: The new climate dataset, BASD-CMIP6-PE, for Peru and Ecuador is based on bias-adjusted and statistically downscaled CMIP6 climate projections from 10 GCMs. It addresses the need for reliable high-resolution (1d, 10km) climate data covering Peru and Ecuador. This dataset includes historical simulations (1850-2014) and future projections (2015-2100) for precipitation and minimum, mean, and maximum temperature under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs:SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). The BASD-CMIP6-PE climate data were generated using the trend-preserving Bias Adjustment and Statistical Downscaling (BASD) method (Lange, 2019, 2021) and data from regional observational datasets such as RAIN4PE (Fernandez-Palomino et al., 2021a,b) for precipitation and PISCO-temperature (Huerta et al., 2018) for temperatures as reference data. The reliability of the BASD-CMIP6-PE was evaluated using observational data and through hydrological modeling across Peruvian and Ecuadorian river basins in the historical period. The evaluation demonstrated the dataset’s reliability in describing spatial patterns of atmospheric variables and streamflow simulation, including mean, low, and high flows. This suggests the usefulness of the new dataset for assessing regional climate change impacts on agriculture, water resources, and hydrological extremes. The BASD-CMIP6-PE data are available for the domain covering Peru and Ecuador, located between 19°S and 2°N and 82°W to 67°W, with a spatial resolution of 0.1° and a daily temporal resolution. The unit for precipitation is millimeters (mm), and for temperature, it is degrees Celsius (°C). The BASD-CMIP6-PE dataset is organized within a "daily" folder, denoting its availability at a 1 daily temporal resolution. Within this directory, four subfolders are present: "historical" containing historical data, "ssp126" for SSP1-2.6, "ssp370" for SSP3-7.0, and "ssp585" for SSP5-8.5. Each of these subfolders further includes ten distinct folders, corresponding to different GCMs: CanESM5, IPSL–CM6A–LR, UKESM1–0–LL, CNRM–CM6–1, CNRM–ESM2–1, MIROC6, GFDL–ESM4, MRI–ESM2–0, MPI–ESM1–2–HR, and EC–Earth3. These folders store the data in the NetCDF format arranged by model, model member, experiment, variable, temporal resolution, and subset period, resulting in file names like "canesm5_r1i1p1f1_ssp126_pr_daily_2015_2020.nc". For a detailed description of the BASD-CMIP6-PE development and evaluation, readers are advised to read Fernandez-Palomino et al. (2023), for which this dataset is supplementary material.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
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  • 49
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    Monsoon Planet: simulation data to examine monsoon dynamics with idealized topography (2023)
    GFZ Data Services
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-08
    Description: The atmosphere model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL-AM2) is coupled to a slab ocean in order to analyse the monsoon's sensitivity to changes in various forcing parameters on a planet with idealized topography. This monsoon planet design of a water planet with a zonal circumglobal land stripe allows to extract the relevant monsoon behaviour and reduces the influence of topography. Besides the width and location of the land stripe, the atmospheric CO2 concentration, incoming solar radiation, sulfate aerosol concentration and surface albedo are variied. Horizontal grid resolution is 2° latitude x 2.5° longitude. For the vertical grid, a hybrid coordinate grid with 24 vertical levels is implemented. The lowest model level starts about 30 m above the surface and the top level is at about 3 hPa. The vertical resolution is decreasing towards higher altitudes. Advective and physics time steps are 10 minutes and 0.5 hours, for atmopsheric radiation 3 hours time steps are used. Instead of an ocean general circulation model, a mixed-layer slab ocean is used.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
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