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  • English  (24,009)
  • 2020-2024  (23,322)
  • 1990-1994  (692)
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  • 1
    Call number: Z 06.0500
    Type of Medium: Journal available for loan
    Pages: 30 cm
    ISSN: 1824-7741
    Former Title: Vorgänger Geologisch-paläontologische Mitteilungen, Innsbruck
    Language: German , English
    Note: Ersch. unregelmäßig , Beiträge teilweise in Englisch
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 2
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    [Edgecumbe, N.Z.] : A. Muller
    Call number: M 15.89146
    Description / Table of Contents: An account of the results of the 2 March 1987 earthquake in the eastern Bay of Plenty and the aftermath's effects on the people and places on the Rangitaiki Plains
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 223 S., , Ill.
    Language: English
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 3
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    Garmisch-Partenkirchen : Institut für atmosphärische Umweltforschung der Fraunhofer- Gesellschaft
    Call number: MOP 44829 / Mitte
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 25 S. , graph. Darst.
    Language: English
    Location: MOP - must be ordered
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 4
  • 5
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    London : Penguin Books
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    ISBN: 9780141985206
    Language: English
    Branch Library: RIFS Library
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  • 6
    Monograph non-lending collection
    Monograph non-lending collection
    Leiden : Nijhoff ; 1.2009 -
    Call number: IASS 17.92082
    Type of Medium: Monograph non-lending collection
    ISSN: 1876-8814
    Language: English
    Branch Library: RIFS Library
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  • 7
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    Stuttgart : Schweizerbart Science Publishers ; Volume 1, number 1 (1978)-
    Call number: M 18.91571
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 134 Seiten
    ISSN: 2363-7196
    Series Statement: Global tectonics and metallogeny : special issue Vol. 10/2-4
    Classification:
    Tectonics
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Global tectonics and metallogeny
    Language: English
    Location: Upper compact magazine
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 8
    Call number: 3/S 07.0034(2017)
    In: Annual report
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 51 Seiten
    ISSN: 1865-6439 , 1865-6447
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
    Parallel Title: Annual report ... / Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres
    Language: English
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  • 9
    Journal available for loan
    Journal available for loan
    Tübingen : Mohr Siebeck ; 1.1884 - 48.1931; N.F. 1.1932/33 - 10.1943/44(1945),3; 11.1948/49(1949) -
    Call number: ZS 22.95039
    Type of Medium: Journal available for loan
    Pages: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1614-0974 , 0015-2218 , 0015-2218
    Language: German , English
    Note: N.F. entfällt ab 57.2000. - Volltext auch als Teil einer Datenbank verfügbar , Ersch. ab 2000 in engl. Sprache mit dt. Hauptsacht.
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2023-01-10
    Description: We compiled a dataset of continuous recordings from the temporary and permanent seismic networks to compute the high-resolution 3D S-wave velocity model of the Southeastern Alps, the western part of the external Dinarides, and the Friuli and Venetian plains through ambient noise tomography. Part of the dataset is recorded by the SWATH-D temporary network and permanent networks in Italy, Austria, Slovenia and Croatia between October 2017 and July 2018. We computed 4050 vertical component cross-correlations to obtain the empirical Rayleigh wave Green’s functions. The dataset is complemented by adopting 1804 high-quality correlograms from other studies. The fast-marching method for 2D surface wave tomography is applied to the phase velocity dispersion curves in the 2–30 s period band. The resulting local dispersion curves are inverted for 1D S-wave velocity profiles using the non-perturbational and perturbational inversion methods. We assembled the 1D S-wave velocity profiles into a pseudo-3D S-wave velocity model from the surface down to 60 km depth. A range of iso-velocities, representing the crystalline basement depth and the crustal thickness, are determined. We found the average depth over the 2.8–3.0 and 4.1–4.3 km/s iso-velocity ranges to be reasonable representations of the crystalline basement and Moho depths, respectively. The basement depth map shows that the shallower crystalline basement beneath the Schio-Vicenza fault highlights the boundary between the deeper Venetian and Friuli plains to the east and the Po-plain to the west. The estimated Moho depth map displays a thickened crust along the boundary between the Friuli plain and the external Dinarides. It also reveals a N-S narrow corridor of crustal thinning to the east of the junction of Giudicarie and Periadriatic lines, which was not reported by other seismic imaging studies. This corridor of shallower Moho is located beneath the surface outcrop of the Permian magmatic rocks and seems to be connected to the continuation of the Permian magmatism to the deep-seated crust. We compared the shallow crustal velocities and the hypocentral location of the earthquakes in the Southern foothills of the Alps. It revealed that the seismicity mainly occurs in the S-wave velocity range between ∼3.1 and ∼3.6 km/s.
    Language: English
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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2023-01-21
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/lecture
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2023-01-27
    Description: Organic carbon (OC) stored in Arctic permafrost represents one of Earth's largest and most vulnerable terrestrial carbon pools. Amplified climate warming across the Arctic results in widespread permafrost thaw. Permafrost deposits exposed at river cliffs and coasts are particularly susceptible to thawing processes. Accelerating erosion of terrestrial permafrost along shorelines leads to increased transfer of organic matter (OM) to nearshore waters. However, the amount of terrestrial permafrost carbon and nitrogen as well as the OM quality in these deposits are still poorly quantified. Here, we characterise the sources and the quality of OM supplied to the Lena River at a rapidly eroding permafrost river shoreline cliff in the eastern part of the delta (Sobo-Sise Island). Our multi-proxy approach captures bulk elemental, molecular geochemical and carbon isotopic analyses of late Pleistocene Yedoma permafrost and Holocene cover deposits, discontinuously spanning the last ~52 ka. We show that the ancient permafrost exposed in the Sobo-Sise cliff has a high organic carbon content (mean of about 5 wt%).We found that the OM quality, which we define as the intrinsic potential to further transformation, decomposition, and mineralization, is also high as inferred by the lipid biomarker inventory. The oldest sediments stem from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 interstadial deposits (dated to 52 to 28 cal kyr BP) and is overlaid by Last Glacial MIS 2 (dated to 28 to 15 cal ka BP) and Holocene MIS 1 (dated to 7–0 cal ka BP) deposits. The relatively high average chain length (ACL) index of n-alkanes along the cliff profile indicates a predominant contribution of vascular plants to the OM composition. The elevated ratio of iso and anteiso-branched FAs relative to long chain (C ≥ 20) n-FAs in the interstadial MIS 3 and the interglacial MIS 1 deposits, suggests stronger microbial activity and consequently higher input of bacterial biomass during these climatically warmer periods. The overall high carbon preference index (CPI) and higher plant fatty acid (HPFA) values as well as high C / N ratios point to a good quality of the preserved OM and thus to a high potential of the OM for decomposition upon thaw. A decrease of HPFA values downwards along the profile probably indicates a relatively stronger OM decomposition in the oldest (MIS 3) deposits of the cliff.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2023-01-28
    Description: The Pamir plateau protrudes ~300 km between the Tajik- and Tarim-basinlithosphere of Central Asia. We present a new local-seismicity catalog, a focal-mechanism catalog, and a P-wave velocity model of the of the collision system between the Pamir plateau and the Tarim basin. The data suggest a south-dipping Asian slab that overturns in its easternmost segment. The largest principal stress at depth acts normal on the slab and is orientated parallel to the plate convergence direction. In front (south) of the Asian slab, a volume of mantle with elevated velocities and lined by weak seismicity constitutes the postulated Indian mantle indenter. The data set consists of an earthquake catalog, an earthquake focal mechanism catalog and a subsurface P-wave velocity model of the central and eastern Pamir plateau and the adjacent north-western Tarim basin; between 36.8–40.0 °N and 72.2–78.0 °E. It was collected to identify the deep tectonic structures that determine the lithospheric architecture of the Pamir plateau. Earthquakes were recorded by two temporary seismic deployments. Earthquakes that occurred between 1st August 2008 and 6th June 2010 were primarily recorded by the TIPAGE network (Yuan et al., 2008); those, between 3rd August 2015 and 23rd June 2017 by the East Pamir and Sarez aftershock networks (Yuan et al., 2018a, b). The earthquake catalog contains 1,493 seismic events at depth 〉50 km. They were localized in the present 3-D velocity model. Some events were re-located with hypoDD. The focal mechanism catalog consists of double-couple fault-slip parameters for 38 events, 29 of which are newly determined using the HASH algorithm and 9 are moment tensors from Kufner et al. (2016). The P wave-velocity model has been determined using simulps from 2,264 seismic events with well-constrained P- and S-wave arrivals. It is parameterized as velocity gradients between nodes with a horizontal and vertical spacing of 40 and 15 km, respectively. Unresolved nodes were masked using a checkerboard resolution test. The full description of the methods is provided in the data description file.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/workingPaper
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2023-01-28
    Description: The Bransfield Basin is a young (∼4 Ma) back-arc basin related to the remnant subduction of the Phoenix Plate that once existed along the entire Pacific margin of the Antarctic Peninsula. Based on a recently deployed amphibious seismic network, we use ambient noise tomography to obtain the S-wave velocity structure in the Central Bransfield Basin (CBB). Combining with the stress-field inverted from focal mechanisms, our images reveal that the CBB suffers a significant extension in the northwest-southeast direction. The extension is strongest in the northeastern CBB with associated mantle exhumation and weakens to the southwest with decoupled deformations between the upper crust and lithospheric mantle. Such an along-strike variation of extension can be explained by slab window formation and forearc rotation, which are associated with the Phoenix Plate detachment during the ridge–trench collisions at the southwest of the Hero Fracture Zone.
    Language: English
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2023-04-18
    Language: English
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  • 16
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    IUGG Secretariat, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
    Publication Date: 2023-03-03
    Description: These short, informal newsletters, issued every month on approximately the first day of the month, are intended to keep IUGG Member National Committees informed about the activities of the IUGG Associations and actions of the IUGG Secretariat. Special issues are sometimes distributed mid-month as deemed appropriate. The content usually includes a synopsis of scientific meetings during the following three months in order to illustrate the disciplinary and geographical diversity of IUGG interests. E-Journals may be forwarded to those who will benefit from the information.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/other
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2023-02-17
    Description: Cyclic fluid injection has been demonstrated as a plausibly effective and controllable strategy to mitigate the seismic risks during hydraulic stimulation. The mechanism involved remains largely unconstrained, and our ability to control the activation of critically stressed, locally undrained faults is still limited. Injection-induced activation of these faults can be one of the most threatening scenarios as they likely perturb the stability of nearby faults beyond the stimulation volume. Here, we perform a series of laboratory fluid injection tests on critically stressed, locally undrained faults in low-permeability granite to offer insights into cyclic fluid injection as a possible solution for seismic risk mitigation. Our results show that cyclic fluid injection promotes fluid pressure diffusion on the faults, but a reduction in seismic moment release depends on several cycle-related factors, such as the critical injection pressure and injection frequency. Particularly, cyclic fluid injection could be inefficient for fluid pressure diffusion if the critical injection pressure is very close to the predicted pressure at fault failure, or over-reduced to cause excess fluid injection and long-term frictional healing. A proper design of injection parameters is thus essential to balance the energy budget between the seismic energy and hydraulic energy. Our study reveals that the effectiveness of cyclic fluid injection is also dependent on fault drainage conditions, stimulation requirements, as well as dynamic responses of faulted reservoirs, which could guide the future development of cyclic fluid injection.
    Language: English
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2023-03-15
    Description: The simulation of uranium migration through the Swiss Opalinus Clay is used as an example to quantify the influence of varying values of a stability constant in the underlying thermodynamic database on the migration lengths for the repository scale. Values for the stability constant of the neutral, ternary uranyl complex Ca2UO2(CO3)3 differ in literature by up to one order of magnitude. Within the studied geochemical system, either the neutral or the anionic complex CaUO2(CO3)2−3 is the predominant one, depending on the chosen value for the neutral complex. This leads to a changed interaction with the diffuse double layers (DDL) enveloping the clay minerals and thus can potentially influence the diffusive transport of uranium. Hence, two identical scenarios only differing in the value for the stability constant of the Ca2UO2(CO3)3 complex were applied in order to quantify and compare the migration lengths of uranium on the host rock scale (50 m) after a simulation time of one million years. We ran multi-component diffusion simulations for the shaly and sandy facies in the Opalinus Clay. A difference in the stability constant of 1.33 log units changes the migration lengths by 5 to 7 m for the sandy and shaly facies, respectively. The deviation is caused by the anion exclusion effect. However, with a maximum diffusion distance of 22 m, the influence of the stability constant of the Ca2UO2(CO3)3 complex on uranium migration in the Opalinus Clay is negligible on the host rock scale.
    Language: English
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  • 19
    Publication Date: 2023-07-24
    Description: Monitoring coastal sea level has gained a large socioeconomic and environmental significance. Ground-based Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R) offers various geophysical parameters including sea surface height. We investigate a one-year dataset from January to December 2016 to evaluate the performance of GNSS-R coastal sea levels during different sea states. Our experiment setup uses three types of antenna in terms of polarization and orientation. A zenith-looking antenna tracks Right-Handed Circular Polarization (RHCP) direct signals and two sea-looking antennas capture both Left-Handed Circular Polarization (LHCP) and RHCP reflections. The Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is used for extracting interferometric frequency from the data and calculating the heights. The results indicate that the height estimates from the sea-looking antennas have better accuracy compared to the zenith-looking orientation. The LHCP antenna delivers the best performance. The yearly Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) of 5-min GNSS-R L1 water levels compared to the nearest tide gauge are 2.8 and 3.9 cm for the sea-looking antennas and 4.7 cm for the zenith-looking antenna with correlations of 97.63, 95.02, 95.35 percent, respectively. Our analysis shows that the roughness can introduce a bias to the measurements.
    Language: English
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  • 20
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    IUGG Secretariat, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
    In:  IUGG Annual Report
    Publication Date: 2023-03-01
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/report
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2023-01-19
    Description: Safety of a nuclear waste repository is based to a large extent on the isolation of the radioactive waste within a suitable host rock. Clay rocks provide an option due to their very low hydraulic conductivity only allowing diffusive transport. Diffusion processes in clay formations are complex due to the diffuse double layers (DDL) enveloping the clay minerals to compensate their net surface charge and the associated different migration behaviour for cationic, anionic and neutral species. Therefore, determination of the speciation of an element in the porewater is essential to quantify migration lengths precisely. Safety assessments are based on numerical simulations to cover time periods of up to one million years and thus the predominant species of a radionuclide, dependent on the stability constants within the law of mass action, might be signififcant. In the present study, we use uranium, one of the main components in spent fuel, as an example for the diffusion in the Swiss Opalinus Clay, a potential host rock for the storage of nuclear waste. In the geochemical system, uranium is mainly present as U(VI) in ternary uranyl complexes with calcium and carbonate, whereby speciation depends on the selected thermodynamic data (Hennig et al., 2020). For instance, the stability constants for the neutral uranyl complex Ca2UO2(CO3)3 differ slightly in literature. Depending on the selected one, either the neutral or the anionic complex CaUO2(CO3)32- is the predominant species in the system with an associated varying interaction with the DDL of the clay minerals. With our one-dimensional, multi-component diffusion models we quantified the effect of the selected stability constant on the diffusion length for the host rock scale. The chemistry in the porewater of the three facies of the Opalinus Clay, shaly, sandy and carbonate-rich, plays a key role for the sorption processes (Hennig et al., 2020) as well as for the composition and thickness of the DDL and therewith the diffusive transport. Based on our results, we show, that the influence of the predominant uranium species on the migration lengths varies between the individual facies, but is overall negligible for the host rock scale. Consequently, a stability constant is not decisive for the required thickness of the host rock as geological barrier.
    Language: English
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  • 22
    Publication Date: 2023-01-19
    Description: sandbox is an R-tool for probabilistic numerical modelling of sediment properties. A flexible framework for definition and application of time/depth- based rules for sets of parameters for single grains that can be used to create artificial sediment profiles. Such profiles can be used for virtual sample preparation and synthetic, for instance, luminescence measurements.
    Language: English
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2023-01-19
    Description: Multi-component (MC) diffusion simulations enable a process based and more preciseapproach to calculate transport and sorption compared to the commonly used single-component(SC) models following Fick’s law. The MC approach takes into account the interaction of chemicalspecies in the porewater with the diffuse double layer (DDL) adhering clay mineral surfaces. Westudied the shaly, sandy and carbonate-rich facies of the Opalinus Clay. High clay contents dominatediffusion and sorption of uranium. The MC simulations show shorter diffusion lengths than the SCmodels due to anion exclusion from the DDL. This hampers diffusion of the predominant speciesCaUO2(CO3)2−3. On the one side, species concentrations and ionic strengths of the porewater andon the other side surface charge of the clay minerals control the composition and behaviour ofthe DDL. For some instances, it amplifies the diffusion of uranium. We developed a workflow totransfer computationally intensive MC simulations to SC models via calibrated effective diffusionand distribution coefficients. Simulations for one million years depict maximum uranium diffusionlengths between 10 and 35 m. With respect to the minimum requirement of a thickness of 100 m, theOpalinus Clay seems to be a suitable host rock for nuclear waste repositories.
    Language: English
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  • 24
    Publication Date: 2023-01-19
    Description: Transport properties of potential host rocks for nuclear waste disposal are typically determined in laboratory or in-situ experiments under geochemically controlled and constant conditions. Such a homogeneous assumption is no longer applicable on the host rock scale as can be seen from the pore water profiles of the potential host rock Opalinus Clay at Mont Terri (Switzerland). The embedding aquifers are the hydro-geological boundaries, that established gradients in the 210 m thick low permeable section through diffusive exchange over millions of years. Present-day pore water profiles were confirmed by a data-driven as well as by a conceptual scenario. Based on the modelled profiles, the influence of the geochemical gradient on uranium migration was quantified by comparing the distances after one million years with results of common homogeneous models. Considering the heterogeneous system, uranium migrated up to 24 m farther through the formation depending on the source term position within the gradient and on the partial pressure of carbon dioxide pCO2 of the system. Migration lengths were almost equal for single- and multicomponent diffusion. Differences can predominantly be attributed to changes in the sorption capacity, whereby pCO2 governs how strong uranium migration is affected by the geochemical gradient. Thus, the governing parameters for uranium migration in the Opalinus Clay can be ordered in descending priority: pCO2, geochemical gradients, mineralogical heterogeneity.
    Language: English
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  • 25
    Publication Date: 2023-01-26
    Description: This paper presents major gaps and challenges for implementing the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (2021-2030) in the Mediterranean region. The authors make recommendations on the scientific knowledge needs and co-design actions identified during two consultations, part of the Decade preparatory-phase, framing them in the Mediterranean Sea’s unique environmental and socio-economic perspectives. According to the ‘Mediterranean State of the Environment and Development Report 2020’ by the United Nations Environment Programme Mediterranean Action Plan and despite notable progress, the Mediterranean region is not on track to achieve and fully implement the Sustainable Development Goals of Agenda 2030. Key factors are the cumulative effect of multiple human-induced pressures that threaten the ecosystem resources and services in the global change scenario. The basin, identified as a climate change vulnerability hotspot, is exposed to pollution and rising impacts of climate change. This affects mainly the coastal zones, at increasing risk of extreme events and their negative effects of unsustainable management of key economic assets. Transitioning to a sustainable blue economy is the key for the marine environment’s health and the nourishment of future generations. This challenging context, offering the opportunity of enhancing the knowledge to define science-based measures as well as narrowing the gaps between the Northen and Southern shores, calls for a joint (re)action. The paper reviews the state of the art of Mediterranean Sea science knowledge, sets of trends, capacity development needs, specific challenges, and recommendations for each Decade’s societal outcome. In the conclusions, the proposal for a Mediterranean regional programme in the framework of the Ocean Decade is addressed. The core objective relies on integrating and improving the existing ocean-knowledge, Ocean Literacy, and ocean observing capacities building on international cooperation to reach the “Mediterranean Sea that we want
    Language: English
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  • 26
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    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS)
    Publication Date: 2023-11-13
    Description: Foraminiferal wall microstructures, consistent with the molecular-based high-rank classification, are critical to understanding foraminiferal evolution and advanced taxonomic relationships. Although test structures are well documented for recent, Cenozoic, and some Mesozoic foraminifera, the diagnostic characteristics of Paleozoic taxa are largely unexplored. The majority of calcareous Paleozoic foraminifera have been assigned to the Fusulinata based on questionable homogeneously “microgranular” test wall microstructures, which have never been sufficiently documented for most taxa. We investigated the test structures of exceptionally well-preserved Devonian (Eifelian) Semitextularia thomasi, representing the first calcareous true multichambered (serial) foraminifera, and compared this species with a large fusiform Permian representative of “true” fusulinids (Neoschwagerinidae). The tests of Semitextularia thomasi display lamellar structures that are not observed in any other fossil or recent foraminiferal group. The Paleozoic foraminifera, traditionally referred to one taxon (the class Fusulinata), possess at least three contrasting test wall microstructures, representing separate high-rank taxonomic groups. Fusulinata is most likely a highly polyphyletic group that is in need of taxonomic revision. The term Fusulinata, defined as including all Paleozoic calcareous forms except Miliolida and Lagenata, is not phylogenetically meaningful and should no longer be used or should be restricted to true complex fusulinids with microgranular test structures, which appeared in the Carboniferous.
    Language: English
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  • 27
    Publication Date: 2023-11-13
    Description: Ammonoids are extinct cephalopods with external shells which predominated in many late Paleozoic and Mesozoic marine ecosystems. Stable isotope data from ammonoid shells constitute primary tools for understanding their palaeohabitats. However, in most sedimentary successions globally the aragonitic shells of ammonoids are dissolved during fossilisation process and therefore not available for geochemical studies. We overcome this taphonomic bias by analysing the better preservable calcitic elements of the ammonoid jaws (aptychi). We study moulds and aptychi of two successive members, temporal subspecies in our interpretation, of a scaphitid evolutionary lineage from a Late Cretaceous chalk succession in Poland. In order to reconstruct their habitat depth preferences, we apply the powerful combination of stable isotope data from aptychi and co-occurring benthic and planktic foraminifera with an analysis of predation marks preserved on scaphitid specimens. On this basis we conclude that the populations of the older subspecies led a nektic, and those of the younger subspecies, a nektobenthic lifestyle. The shift in habitat depth preferences took place probably as a response of local populations to the shallowing of the sea. Previous studies largely assumed stable depth preferences for ammonoid species, genera and even higher clades. Our study casts doubts over such generalizations by pointing out that ammonoids could have been more flexible in their depth-related behaviour than anticipated.
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  • 28
    Publication Date: 2023-11-10
    Description: The widespread expansion of the oxygen minimum zone onto shelves has been commonly regarded as a primary cause of benthos extinction in epicratonic sea ecosystems during the Cenomanian–Turonian boundary event (CTBE). However, neither lithology, geochemical proxies, nor micropaleontological data support this hypothesis. Instead, our integrated foraminiferal and dinoflagellate cyst study, corroborated by δ13Corg and δ15Norg data, indicate that the biota were impacted by an abrupt shift to well oxygenated oligotrophic conditions and a collapse of primary productivity in the epicontinental Central European Basin. Because the event was concurrent with the development of extensive and extreme oceanic bottom water anoxia that reached the photic zone in oceanic settings, we infer that the biotic crisis in the shelf seas during Oceanic Anoxic Event 2 (OAE2), and possibly during other OAEs, was triggered by this anomalous nutrient cycling in Earth's oceans. This phenomenon was presumably associated with intensive denitrification combined with anammox activity in the deep “ammonium oceans,” which caused a significant loss of biologically reactive nitrogen from the ocean system. Impingement of ammonium-rich anoxic waters on the photic zone resulted in primary productivity based primarily on ammonium assimilation, as recorded by strongly 15N-depleted organic matter deposited in the oceans during the CTBE. We propose that, unlike in the oceanic settings, productivity in the well-oxygenated, oligotrophic epicontinental seas was nitrate-based, as evidenced by strongly 15N-enriched organic matter deposited in the contemporaneous epicontinental sea. These very high δ15Norg values (〉+5‰) were related to the spreading of shallow oceanic waters carrying 15N-enriched nitrate onto epicontinental settings.
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  • 29
    Publication Date: 2023-09-22
    Description: Strong groundmotion records and free open access to strong-motion data repositories are fundamental inputs to seismology, engineering seismology, soil dynamics, and earthquake engineering science and practice. This article presents the current status and outlook of the Observatories and Research Facilities for European Seismology (ORFEUS) coordinated strong-motion seismology services, namely the rapid raw strong-motion (RRSM) and the engineering strong-motion (ESM) databases and associated web interfaces andwebservices.We compare and discuss the role and use of these two systems using theMw 6.5 Norcia (Central Italy) earthquake that occurred on 30 October 2016 as an example of a well-recorded earthquake that triggered major interest in the seismological and earthquake engineering communities. The RRSM is a fully automated system for rapid dissemination of earthquake shaking information, whereas the ESM provides qualitychecked, manually processed waveforms and reviewed earthquake information. The RRSM uses only data from the European Integrated Waveform Data Archive, whereas the ESM also includes offline data from other sources, such as the ITalian ACcelerometric Archive (ITACA). Advanced software tools are also included in the ESM to allow users to process strong-motion data and to select ground-motion waveform sets for seismic structural analyses. The RRSM and ESM are complementary services designed for a variety of possible stakeholders, ranging fromscientists to the educated general public. The RRSM and ESM are developed, organized, and reviewed by selected members of the seismological community in Europe, including strong-motion data providers and expert users. Global access and usage of the data is encouraged. The ESM is presently the reference database for harmonized seismic hazard and risk studies in Europe. ORFEUS strong-motion data are open, “Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable,” and accompanied by licensing information. The users are encouraged to properly cite the data providers, using the digital object identifiers of the seismic networks.
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  • 30
    Publication Date: 2023-09-22
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  • 31
    Publication Date: 2023-09-22
    Description: Volcanic tremor signals are usually observed before or during volcanic eruptions andmust be monitored to evaluate the volcanic activity. A challenge in studying seismic signals of volcanic origin is the coexistence of transient signal swarms and long-lasting volcanic tremor signals. Separating transient events fromvolcanic tremors can, therefore, contribute to improving upon our understanding of the underlying physical processes. Exploiting the idea of harmonic–percussive separation in musical signal processing, we develop a method to extract the harmonic volcanic tremor signals and to detect transient events from seismic recordings. Based on the similarity properties of spectrogram frames in the time–frequency domain, we decompose the signal into two separate spectrograms representing repeating (harmonic) and nonrepeating (transient) patterns, which correspond to volcanic tremor signals and earthquake signals, respectively. We reconstruct the harmonic tremor signal in the time domain from the complex spectrogram of the repeating pattern by only considering the phase components for the frequency range in which the tremor amplitude spectrum is significantly contributing to the energy of the signal. The reconstructed signal is, therefore, clean tremor signal without transient events. Furthermore, we derive a characteristic function suitable for the detection of transient events (e.g., earthquakes) by integrating amplitudes of the nonrepeating spectrogram over frequency at each time frame. Considering transient events like earthquakes, 78% of the events are detected for signal-to-noise ratio = 0.1 in our semisynthetic tests. In addition, we compared the number of detected earthquakes using our method for one month of continuous data recorded during the Holuhraun 2014–2015 eruption in Iceland with the bulletin presented in Ágústsdóttir et al. (2019). Our single station event detection algorithm identified 84% of the bulletin events. Moreover, we detected a total of 12,619 events, which is more than twice the number of the bulletin events.
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  • 32
    Publication Date: 2023-10-05
    Description: Because of their robustness against resetting, in situU-Pb ages of zircons in lunar impactites have the potential to provide constraints on the lunar bombardment history that may complement the more common K-Ar ages. Most previous work has focused on relatively large zircons that show growth zoning and ages were mostly interpreted as early igneous crystallization ages. Here we combine high-resolution mineralogical imaging and in situU-Pb dating by ion microprobe to identify, characterize and date 〈20μm size zircons in thin sections of lunar impact breccias. Several tens of grains of zircons of this size range were identified in thin sections of impactites from the Apollo 15 and 16 landing sites. Small zircons are more abundant in both noritic and evolved clinopyroxene, SiO2or K-feldspar bearing lithologies compared to anorthositic bulk compositions. Both granular zircon aggregates and overgrowth on existing zircon or baddeleyite (in breccias 15455 and 67915) are interpreted to reflect high-temperature recrystallization of zircons or its high-temperature-pressure precursor phases, following shock heating events by impact. In contrast, conchoidal or poikilitic zircons 〈10μm in Fe-Ni metal bearing noritic clasts or matrix (67915, 67955) crystallized in situfrom impact melt. Most U-Pb ages of the 24 analyzed grains are either concordant or reverse discordant with 207Pb-206Pb ages ranging from 4.15 to 4.25 Ga. The small age range, combined with a large textural spectrum and the frequent presence of Fe-Ni metal suggest zircon crystallization from impact melt and recrystallization of pre-existing zirconium-bearing minerals by impact heating. Such ‘impact’ zircons with 4.2 Ga ages have now been reported from most Apollo landing sites, suggesting widespread formation and modification of zircons by basin-forming impacts at this time. The contrast between U-Pb zircon (predominantly 4.2 Ga) and K-Ar feldspar ages (predominantly 3.9 Ga) likely reflects resetting of the latter chronometer by impact heating.
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  • 33
    Publication Date: 2023-10-02
    Description: Precise point positioning (PPP) is a very important function of satellite navigation system. In this contribution, the combination of BDS-2 and BDS-3 PPP is researched. To begin with, the frequency and application of BDS-2 and BDS-3 are introduced. Then, the principle of BDS-2 and BDS-3 combined PPP, the generation and estimation method of inter-system bias (ISB) are elaborated. Finally, the global satellite visibility of BDS-2 and BDS-3, the global Position Dilution of Precision (PDOP) value and the results of BDS-2/BDS-3 PPP are analyzed based on the 51-day data of 30 stations from multi-GNSS experiment (MGEX) network in 2020. The experimental results show that: (1) The number of visible satellites of BDS-2 in Asia Pacific region is 8–15, while the number of visible satellites in most parts of the western hemisphere is less than 4; the number of visible satellites of BDS-3 in the eastern hemisphere is 8–14, while the number of visible satellites in the western hemisphere is 7–11; BDS-3 is more evenly distributed in the world than BDS-2, but the number of satellites in the eastern hemisphere is also slightly more than that in the western hemisphere. (2) The root mean square (RMS) of BDS-2/BDS-3 static PPP in the East (E), North (N) and Up (U) directions are 1.0 cm, 0.6 cm and 1.7 cm respectively; the positioning accuracy of BDS-2/BDS-3 PPP in the E, N and U directions are improved by 16.7%, 14.3% and 10.5% respectively compared with BDS-3 PPP. The RMS of BDS-2/BDS-3 kinematic PPP in the E, N and U directions are 2.0 cm, 1.3 cm and 4.1 cm respectively; the positioning accuracy of BDS-2/BDS-3 PPP in the E, N and U directions are improved by 33.3%, 38.1% and 29.3% respectively compared with BDS-3 PPP. (3) Compared with BDS-3 static PPP, the convergence time of BDS-2/BDS-3 are shortened by 6.1%, 11.5%, 10.1% and 10.3% in the E, N, U and three dimensional (3D) directions respectively. Compared with BDS-2, the convergence time of BDS-3 is shortened by more than 50%. The convergence time of BDS-2/BDS-3 kinematic PPP in the E, N, U and 3D directions is shorter than BDS-3 by 31.1%, 43.8%, 38.1% and 34.6% respectively; the convergence time of BDS-3 is shorter than BDS-2 by 61.1%, 59.7%, 60.9% and 57.1% respectively. In brief, the success of BDS-3 global networking has greatly promoted the positioning performance of the entire BDS system.
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  • 34
    Publication Date: 2023-10-02
    Description: The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission makes it possible to infer the land water storage, albeit at a scale of ~300 km. Land water storage can also be inverted from the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) at the cost of a dense network, which is feasible for wealthier nations. Here, the concept of a single GNSS site as a hydrometeorological sensor is explored. Specifically, the crustal displacements and the integrated water vapor (IWV) are used to characterize the 2014–15 drought that jeopardized Southeast Brazil. The crustal displacements as drought indicator confirm the drought persistence during the study period, which agree with GRACE-based values (correlation coefficient [CC] ). The IWV and precipitation series are strongly correlated (CC ), whereas during months with daily IWV below approximately 20 mm, there are simultaneities with the absence of rainfall. Furthermore, GNSS-predicted land water storage agrees with GRACE results with normalized root-mean-square differences .
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2023-10-02
    Description: Although the statistical significances for the trends of integrated water vapor (IWV) are essential for a correct interpretation of climate change signals, obtaining accurate IWV trend estimates with realistic uncertainties remains a challenge. This study evaluates the feasibility of the IWV trends derived from the newly released fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) for climate change analysis in continental Europe. This is achieved by comparing the trends derived from in-situ ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS)’s daily IWV series from 1994 to 2019 at 109 stations. The realistic uncertainties and statistical significances of the IWV trends are evaluated with the time series analysis on their noise characteristics and proper noise models. Results show that autoregressive moving average ARMA(1,1) noise model is preferred rather than the commonly assumed white noise (WN) or first-order autoregressive AR(1) noise for about 68% of the ERA5 and GPS IWV series. An improper noise model would misevaluate the trend uncertainty of an IWV time series, compared with its specific preferred noise model. For example, ARMA(1,1) may misevaluate the standard deviations of their trend estimates (0.1–0.3 kg m−2 decade−1) by 10%. Nevertheless, ARMA(1,1) is recommended as the default noise model for the ERA5 and GPS IWV series. However, the preferred noise model for each ERA5 minus GPS (E-G) IWV series should be specifically determined, because the AR(1)-related models can result in an underestimation on its trend uncertainty by 90%. In contrast, power-law (PL) model can lead to an overestimation by up to nine times. The E-G IWV trends are within −0.2–0.4 kg m−2 decade−1, indicating that the ERA5 is a potential data source of IWV trends for climate change analysis in continental Europe. The ERA5 and GPS IWV trends are consistent in their magnitudes and geographical patterns, lower in Northwest Europe (0–0.4 kg m−2 decade−1) but higher around the Mediterranean Sea (0.6–1.4 kg m−2 decade−1).
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  • 36
    Publication Date: 2023-12-18
    Description: Background The sharp decline in near-natural areas worldwide is undisputed, but the consequences of this decline, apart from the loss of biodiversity, cannot be fully assessed. Biotic components of a landscape are usually more easily assessed than the abiotic components, since biotic components are often more easily detectable. A forest of (semi)natural stocking was selected in the northeastern part of Brandenburg (northeast Germany) to check whether it can serve as reference site for near-natural conditions or not. Analyses of archival sources and historic maps as well as field investigations were combined to reconstruct the dynamics of vegetation and soil as far back in time as possible. Results Palynological data from nearby sites provide evidence that the investigated area has been forested for several thousands of years and has hardly been structurally influenced by humans in the last 450 years. This evidence together with historical maps of tree species composition allows us to infer that the specific forest has been very close to a natural state for at least 250 years. Soil investigations support this conclusion, since a soil inventory, field studies on two catenas and corings at selected depressions rarely show signs of anthropogenic erosion and related colluviation. Parts of the area were cleared in prehistory, but near-natural soils have been preserved in other parts. Conclusions The area with these undisturbed parts is regarded as an ideal reference site. With this study, we show that using a multi-source approach it is possible to find potential reference sites and that such an approach is applicable in other regions. KEYWORDS ancient forest, geo-bioarchives, historic maps, land use legacy, pollen analysis, refer
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  • 37
    Publication Date: 2023-12-18
    Description: Most natural diamonds are formed in Earth’s lithospheric mantle; however, the exact mechanisms behind their genesis remain debated. Given the occurrence of electrochemical processes in Earth’s mantle and the high electrical conductivity of mantle melts and fluids, we have developed a model whereby localized electric fields play a central role in diamond formation. Here, we experimentally demonstrate a diamond crystallization mechanism that operates under lithospheric mantle pressure-temperature conditions (6.3 and 7.5 gigapascals; 1300° to 1600°C) through the action of an electric potential applied across carbonate or carbonate-silicate melts. In this process, the carbonate-rich melt acts as both the carbon source and the crystallization medium for diamond, which forms in assemblage with mantle minerals near the cathode. Our results clearly demonstrate that electric fields should be considered a key additional factor influencing diamond crystallization, mantle mineral–forming processes, carbon isotope fractionation, and the global carbon cycle.
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  • 38
    Publication Date: 2023-12-11
    Description: We report chemical and B-isotope analyses of tourmaline from Ordovician S-type granites, an aplite, LCT-type (lithium-cesium-tantalum) pegmatites, and metamorphic rocks of the Conlara Metamorphic Complex (CMC) in Sierra de San Luis, Argentina. For comparison, tourmaline from three LCT pegmatites in the adjacent Pringles Metamorphic Complex was also studied. Metamorphic tourmaline from the CMC has intermediate schorl–dravite compositions, with variable Fe# [100 * Fe/(Fe + Mg)] from 32 to 79. The δ11B values range from –14.8 to –8.9‰, which are typical values for continental metasediments and granites, ruling out a marine origin for the tourmalinite protoliths. Tourmaline from the S-type granites and aplite is more homogeneous, with Fe# from 48 to 60. The δ11B range (–14 to –9.8‰) of granitic tourmaline is within that of the metamorphic tourmaline, supporting the idea of boron recycling in the CMC during partial melting to form the granites. Tourmaline from CMC-hosted pegmatites is compositionally diverse and we distinguished three groups based on Fe#: Group 1: 42 to 50, Group 2: 50 to 62, and Group 3: 62 to 93. Regardless of strong variations in Fe#, tourmaline from all pegmatites in the CMC has δ11B values from –10.3 to –7.8‰. These values overlap with the range of related granites but are about 2 permil higher, which we attribute to crystallization of 10B-enriched minerals (mica and tourmaline) in the evolved magma from which the pegmatites formed. Pegmatites from the Pringles Metamorphic Complex contain tourmaline with a similar overall range of Fe# (45 to 84) as in the CMC but lower δ11B values (–13.2 to –11.2‰).
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  • 39
    Publication Date: 2023-12-20
    Description: How far apart can two space geodetic sites be located to consider the integrated water vapor (hereinafter IWV) trends as equal, from a statistical viewpoint? How to do efficient feature selection with a given IWV time series? To address these questions, we utilize spatio-temporal variations of long-term IWV trends that were estimated employing very long baseline interferometry (VLBI), Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), and numerical weather prediction data (ERA5 reanalysis). We estimate coefficients for several spatial covariance functions; Hirvonen's model proves to be the most precise for our area of interest, Greater Europe. We find that the effective spatial resolution is around 56 km (for error level (p) 〈 0.05). Our investigations indicate that among else, altitude and proximity to the ocean are key factors affecting the IWV trend decorrelation lengths. We find good agreement between the spatially varying decorrelation lengths and established climate classification systems such as the latest Köppen-Geiger model. Moreover, the IWV trend variation as a function of data span and temporal resolution has been investigated. We find that varying the temporal resolution from one hour up to 30 days does not yield a statistically significant difference (p 〈 0.05) in the IWV trend and its uncertainty, provided the inherent autocorrelation is factored in and the data span remains. We also find that given the IWV time series length, the spread calculated from the estimated trends varying the start point of the time series, follows an exponential decrease σ(Δt) = 22Δt -1.7 + 0.008.
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  • 40
    Publication Date: 2023-12-20
    Description: This presentation gives a summary of the role and the activities of the Bureau of Products and Standards (BPS) to support IAG’s Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) in its goal to provide observations and consistent geodetic products needed to monitor, map and understand changes in the Earth’s shape, rotation and mass distribution. In its present structure, the two Committees “Earth System Modeling” and “Essential Geodetic Variables” as well as the Working Group “Towards a consistent set of parameters for the definition of a new GRS” are associated with the BPS. A key objective of the BPS is to keep track and to foster homogenization of adopted geodetic standards and conventions across all IAG components as a fundamental basis for the generation of consistent geometric and gravimetric products. Towards this aim, an updated 2nd version of the BPS inventory of standards and conventions used for the generation of IAG products has been published in the Geodesist’s Handbook 2020. In the framework of the renewing of the GGOS website, the BPS supports the GGOS Coordinating Office in particular regarding the representation of geodetic products. Furthermore, the BPS contributes to the rewriting of the IERS Conventions as Chapter Expert for Chapter 1 “General definitions and numerical standards” and interacts with external stakeholders regarding standards and conventions, such as ISO, IAU, BIPM, CODATA and the UN GGIM Subcommittee on Geodesy, including its Working Group “Data Sharing and Development of Geodetic Standards”.
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  • 41
    Publication Date: 2023-12-20
    Description: The Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS) of the International Association of Geodesy (IAG) provides the geodetic infrastructure needed to monitor the Earth system.. The understanding of forced temporal variations of celestial pole motion (CPM) could bring us significantly closer to meeting the GGOS goals (i.e. 1 mm accuracy and 0.1 mm/year stability on global scales in terms of the ITRF defining parameters). Besides astronomical forcing, CPM excitation depends on the processes in the fluid core and the core-mantle boundary. The same processes are responsible for the variations of the geomagnetic field (GMF). This study investigates the interconnection between the celestial pole offset (CPO) and effective geophysical processes that contribute to the Earth's rotational variation. We use the CPO time series obtained from very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations together with the latest GMF data such as geomagnetic jerk and magnetic dipole moment, and a state-of-the-art geomagnetic field model to explore the correlation between CPM and GMF. Our results confirm the findings of previous studies, revealing that substantial free core nutation (FCN) disturbance occurred at the epochs close to the GMJ events. The results also reveal some common features in the FCN and GMF variation, which show the potential to improve knowledge regarding the GMF's contribution to the Earth's rotation.
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  • 42
    Publication Date: 2023-12-20
    Description: The terrestrial and celestial reference frames are linked by the Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP), which describe the irregularities of the Earth's rotation and are determined by the space geodetic techniques, namely, Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR), Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), and Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS). The satellite geodetic techniques (SLR, GNSS, and DORIS) cannot determine the UT1-UTC or celestial pole offsets (CPO), rendering VLBI the only technique capable of determining full EOP set. On the other hand, the GNSS technique provides precise polar motion estimates due to the continuous observations from a globally distributed network. Integrating VLBI and GNSS provides the full set of EOP and guarantees a superior accuracy than any single-technique solution. In this study we focus on the integrated estimation of the full EOP set from GNSS and VLBI. Using five VLBI continuous observing campaigns (CONT05–CONT17), the GNSS and VLBI observations are processed concurrently in a common least-squares estimator. The impact of applying global ties (EOP), local ties, and tropospheric ties, and combinations thereof is investigated. The polar motion estimates in integrated solution are dominated by the huge GNSS observations, and the accuracy in terms of weighted root mean squares (WRMS) is ~40 μas compared to the IERS 14 C04 product, which is much better than that of the VLBI-only solution. The UT1-UTC and CPO in the integrated solution also show slight improvement compared to the VLBI-only solution. Moreover, the CPO agreement between the two networks in CONT17, i.e., the VLBA and IVS networks, shows an improvement of 20% to 40% in the integrated solution with different types of ties applied.
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  • 43
    Publication Date: 2023-12-21
    Description: In 2020 new estimations of nutation amplitudes or precession parameters have been published or presented at main meetings. The derivation of corrections to improve the current precession-nutation models was encouraged by Resolution 5 of the 2019 General Assembly of the International Association of Geodesy (IAG). Besides, the GGOS/IERS Unified Analysis Workshop held in October 2019 recommended that effort to be prioritized among the tasks of the current IAU/IAG Joint Working Group on Improving Theories and Models of the Earth’s rotation (JWG ITMER). This presentation is intended to present comparisons of some of those new semi-empirical and semi-theorical precession-nutation models developed by different authors from either VLBI solutions of individual analysis centers or combinations of them. The models recently introduced by the authors that were reported at the AGU 2020 Fall Meeting are included in this assessment.
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2024-01-05
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  • 45
    Publication Date: 2024-01-05
    Description: The rapid estimation of expected impacts in case of an earthquake is extremely important for emergency managers and first responders. Current near-real-time damage assessment methods rely on ground-motion estimates and exposure or fragility datasets, in some cases integrating the shaking recorded at the site (e.g., from strong-motion monitoring networks). We propose a method that estimates the expected damages on buildings based on strong-motion recordings of a seismic event. The damage assessment is based on themaximumdrift (interstory) or the displacement, which is estimated by considering in a first approximation the behavior of a specific building typology as a single-degree-offreedom oscillator. The oscillator is characterized based on the analysis of the building stock and a large number of ambient vibration measurements performed in buildings. A specific damage state occurs when the interstory drift or displacement limits available in the literature for the specific building typology are exceeded. The method, here applied to a case study in northeastern Italy, can be applied to other seismic areas worldwide to provide quick, first-level estimates of expected damages.
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  • 46
    Publication Date: 2024-01-05
    Description: We estimate elastic and anelastic parameters and their evolution during laboratory rock deformation experiments, while developing a Monte Carlo waveform inversion. The transducer-totransducer one-source one-station active seismic data of dry and water-saturated samples are obtained from Zaima and Katayama (2018), https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JB016377. We first performed a trial-anderror estimate of the boundary conditions in order to suppress its influence on waveforms. The synthetic seismic data were generated using equivalent homogeneous models with different combinations of elastic and anelastic parameters with the aid of spectral element method. We compared them with the laboratory experimental data. Based on the comparisons, we obtained the time-lapse variations of seismic velocities and attenuation of rock samples during deformation experiments, which we interpreted as crack developments. Our simultaneous estimation of elastic and anelastic parameters allowed us to detail the dynamics prior to the rock failure.
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  • 47
    Publication Date: 2024-01-25
    Description: We investigate the impact of considering a depth-dependent attenuation model on source parameters assessed through a spectral decomposition. In particular, we evaluate the effect of considering the hypocentral depth as an additional variable for the attenuation model, using as the target the tendency of the average stress drop to increase with depth, as observed in recent studies. Weanalyze the Fourier spectra of S-wave windows for about 1900 earthquakes with a magnitude above 2.5 recorded in the Ridgecrest region, southern California. Two different parameterizations of the attenuation term are implemented in the spectral decomposition, either as a function of the hypocentral distance alone or as a function of both epicentral distance and depth. The comparison of the spectral attenuation curves shows that, although the hypocentral model describes, on average, the range of values spanned by the attenuation curve for different depths, systematic differences with distance, depth, and frequency are observed. These differences are transferred to the source spectra and, in turn, to the source parameters extracted from the best-fitting ω−2 models. In particular, stress drops for events deeper than 7 km are, on average, almost double even when depth is introduced explicitly in the attenuation model. The increase of stress drop with depth is confirmed also after accounting for the increase of the shear velocity with depth, which absorbs about 30%–40% of the total increase. Moreover, a qualitative comparison with a model for the gradient of the effective normal stress confirms the reliability of the observed trend. Finally, the coherent spatial patterns shown by a simplified 2D tomographic representation of the spectral residuals highlights the impact on ground-shaking variability of the lateral variability of the crustal attenuation properties in the region.
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2024-01-25
    Description: This article describes an open-source site database for a total number of 1742 earthquake recording sites in the K-NET (Kyoshin network) and KiK-net (Kiban Kyoshin network) networks in Japan. This database contains site characterization parameters directly derived from available velocity profiles, including average wave velocities, bedrock depths, and velocity contrast. Meanwhile, it also consists of earthquake horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) and peak parameters, for example, peak frequency, amplitude, width, and prominence. In addition, the site database also comprises topographic and geological proxies inferred from regional models or maps. Each parameter is derived in a consistent manner for all sites. This site database can benefit the application of machine learning techniques in studies on site amplification. Besides, it can facilitate, for instances, the search of the optimal site parameter(s) for the prediction of site amplification, the development and testing of ground-motion models or methodologies, as well as investigations on spatial or regional variability in site response. All resources (the site database, earthquake HVSR data at all sites, and the MATLAB script for peak identification) can be freely accessed via: https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.2.1.2020.006
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  • 49
    Publication Date: 2024-01-25
    Description: In this article, we address the question of how observed ground-motion data can most effectively be modeled for engineering seismological purposes. Toward this goal, we use a data-driven method, based on a deep-learning autoencoder with a variable number of nodes in the bottleneck layer, to determine how many parameters are needed to reconstruct synthetic and observed ground-motion data in terms of their median values and scatter. The reconstruction error as a function of the number of nodes in the bottleneck is used as an indicator of the underlying dimensionality of ground-motion data, that is, the minimum number of predictor variables needed in a ground-motion model. Two synthetic and one observed datasets are studied to prove the performance of the proposed method. We find that mapping ground-motion data to a 2D manifold primarily captures magnitude and distance information and is suited for an approximate data reconstruction. The data reconstruction improves with an increasing number of bottleneck nodes of up to three and four, but it saturates if more nodes are added to the bottleneck.
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  • 50
    Publication Date: 2024-01-25
    Description: Threats posed by the climate crisis have created an urgent need for sustainable green energy. Geothermal resources have the potential to provide up to 150 GWe of sustainable energy by 2050. However, the key challenge in successfully locating and drilling geothermal wells is to understand how the heterogeneous structure of the subsurface controls the existence of exploitable fluid reservoirs. In this Review, we discuss how key geological factors contribute to the profitable utilization of intermediate-temperature to high-temperature geothermal resources for power generation. The main driver of geothermal activity is elevated crustal heat flow, which is focused in regions of active magmatism and/or crustal thinning. Permeable structures such as faults exercise a primary control on local fluid flow patterns, with most upflow zones residing in complex fault interaction zones. Major risks in geothermal resource assessment and operation include locating sufficient permeability for fluid extraction, in addition to declining reservoir pressure and the potential of induced seismicity. Advanced computational methods permit effective integration of multiple datasets and, thus, can reduce potential risks. Future innovations involve engineered geothermal systems as well as supercritical and offshore geothermal resources, which could greatly expand the global application of geothermal energy but require detailed knowledge of the respective geological conditions.
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  • 51
    Publication Date: 2024-01-25
    Description: The Southern Andes margin hosts active and fossil volcanic, geothermal, and mineralized systems documenting intense geofluid migration through the crust. Fluid flow is also spatially associated with crustal faults that accommodate the bulk deformation arising from oblique plate convergence. Although recognized, the precise local mechanical interaction between faults and crustal reservoirs is yet to be better understood. Here we present 3D numerical models of a magmatic reservoir and a fault zone set about 4 km apart, inspired by the Tatara-San Pedro volcanic complex in the Southern Volcanic Zone (~36°S), which displays a geothermal field and a margin-parallel dextral active fault zone constrained by published magnetotelluric profiles and crustal seismicity respectively. We investigate elasto-plastic deformation and stress patterns in the intermediate bedrock space between the reservoir and the fault zone and test how shear stress, volumetric strain, and plastic strain develop. We also test the potential of enabling brittle failure of their counterpart by imposing either (1) a strike-slip displacement along the fault zone, or (2) a magmatic overpressure at the cavity walls. Parametric tests of Young's modulus and frictional strength provide the conditions for macro-scale brittle failure and show the development of diffuse domains of dilational strain of the order of 10−5 –10−3 in the intervening bedrock. This dilation is a proxy to the opening of voids or volumetric cracking in the bedrock, which tends to increase porosity and permeability allowing over-pressurized geofluids to migrate within these domains. Our results show that a minimum of 60 m of fault displacement is required to trigger brittle failure of an upper crustal cavity if the bedrock is stiff, whereas, for a more compliant bedrock, more than 100 m of localized slip motion is required. This implies that it is rather the accumulated effect of repeated crustal fault displacement that potentially favors fluid pathways upwards, rather than a single seismic event. On the other hand, a minimum of 7.5 MPa of fluid overpressure is required for a mid-crustal cavity (15 km depth) to trigger brittle failure of the fault zone. This threshold overpressure increases up to 50 MPa when the cavity is shallower (6 km depth). Our results show that in general, shallow reservoirs must be very close to fault zones (less than 1–2 km apart) to reactivate them. The models show that localized strike-slip tectonics and magma intrusions build a dilational stress field at the scale of several kilometers, that promotes fluid pathways to the surface. Further combining this interaction with the regional transpressional stress field may explain observations of transient fluid pathways on seemingly independent timescales along the Andean margin.
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  • 52
    Publication Date: 2024-01-16
    Description: About a decade ago, noise-based monitoring became a key tool in seismology. One of the tools is passive image interferometry (PII), which uses noise correlation functions (NCF) to retrieve seismic velocity variations. Most studies apply PII to vertical components recording oceanic low-frequent ambient noise ( 〈 1 Hz). In this work, PII is applied to high-frequent urban ambient noise ( 〉 1 Hz) on three three-component sensors. With environmental sensors inside the subsurface and in the air, we are able to connect observed velocity variations with environmental parameters. Temperatures below 0 °C correlate well with strong shear wave velocity increases. The temperature sensors inside the ground suggest that a frozen layer of less than 5 cm thickness causes apparent velocity increases above 2  % , depending on the channel pair. The observations indicate that the different velocity variation retrieved from the different channel pairs are due to different surface wave responses inherent in the channel pairs. With dispersion curve modelling in a 1-D medium we can verify that surfaces waves of several tens of metres wavelength experience a velocity increase of several percent due to a centimetres thick frozen layer. Moreover, the model verifies that Love waves show larger velocity increases than Rayleigh waves. The findings of this study provide new insights for monitoring with PII. A few days with temperature below 0 °C can already mask other potential targets (e.g. faults or storage sites). Here, we suggest to use vertical components, which is less sensitive to the frozen layer at the surface. If the target is the seasonal freezing, like in permafrost studies, we suggest to use three-component sensors in order to retrieve the Love wave response. This opens the possibility to study other small-scale processes at the shallow subsurface with surface wave responses.
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  • 53
    Publication Date: 2024-01-23
    Description: A method is proposed to identify within seismic catalogs those earthquakes that are most relevant to the seismic hazard. The approach contrasts with the classical approach to decluster the seismic catalog with the expectation that the remaining main shocks will be the relevant events for the seismic hazard analysis. We apply a time window like in the window declustering approach of Gardner and Knopoff, but the time window is motivated by relevance to engineering. A ground motion criterion replaces the spatial window. An event in the time window is included in the “Maximum Shaking Earthquake Catalog (MSEQ catalog)” if the median ground motion at its epicenter exceeds the predicted median ground motion there from the main shock, using a locally appropriate ground motion prediction equation. Ground motion can be measured by any parameter that is estimated by a ground motion prediction equation. We consider peak acceleration and spectral amplitude (SA) at periods of 0.2, 1.0, and 3.0 s. The longer period parameters systematically remove more small events. The purpose is not to produce a declustered catalog, in which each group of physically related earthquakes is represented by its largest event. Statistical properties of the MSEQ catalog somewhat resemble the corresponding declustered catalog in three tested regions, but the MSEQ catalogs all retain more large-magnitude earthquakes. The MSEQ catalog may better represent the potential hazard in a region, and thus might be considered as an alternative to a declustered catalog in developing the seismicity model for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.
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  • 54
    Publication Date: 2024-01-30
    Description: For seismic risk assessments, ground shaking is generally considered the primary cause of building damage. However, earthquake-induced liquefaction can also create significant structural damage and losses. Predicting the expected degree of damage in structures exposed to ground failure due to liquefaction is thus essential for seismic risk assessment. There are well-established tools and methods to evaluate the seismic risk due to ground shaking. However, despite the large number of studies related to liquefaction assessments, modelling ground failure due to an earthquake is far less mature. The incorporation of liquefaction into a seismic loss estimation framework presents several challenges. The use of simplified procedures requires a multitude of assumptions, which increase the uncertainty in the loss assessment, whilst detailed approaches based on in-situ data are resource-demanding and impractical for large-scale risk analysis. To address these shortcomings, a fully probabilistic hazard and risk assessment due to liquefaction has been employed using the OpenQuake-engine and demonstrated through a case study applied to mainland Portugal. The liquefaction hazard and risk assessment framework followed in this study allows for the incorporation of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, which are herein explored through a sensitivity analysis.
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  • 55
    Publication Date: 2024-01-30
    Description: Induced seismicity associated with fluid injection has raised serious concerns for the safety and efficiency of geo-energy systems. Cyclic injection has recently been proposed as an alternative injection scheme to reduce the large magnitude injection-induced seismicity. However, the influence of cyclic injection on the activation of natural fractures in granite and the resulting seismic risk is not yet clear. This study investigates the injection-induced activation of a critically stressed natural fracture in a granite core sample, particularly focusing on the comparison between monotonic and cyclic water injection under pressure-controlled and volume-controlled conditions. Experimental results show that the acceleration and deceleration of fracture slip are modulated by the shear stress imbalance between the fixed shear stress and the evolving frictional strength of the fracture. Fracture slip affects the fluid pressure distribution on the fracture, which in turn regulates the frictional strength of the fracture. At a small total shear displacement (i.e., ~ 0.9 mm in this study), cyclic injection with a restricted peak injection pressure results in aseismic fracture slip at much smaller peak slip rates compared to that during the monotonic injection. On the one hand, the more uniform reduction in effective normal stress caused by cyclic injection encourages slow and stable fracture slip, characterized by the smaller peak slip rates. On the other hand, the flowback of injected fluid or suspension of injection could prevent the occurrence of fast-accelerated fracture slip during cyclic injection. However, the fracture can become unstable when it has experienced a considerable amount of total shear displacement (larger than ~ 0.9 mm in this study), and likely gained a significantly enhanced permeability. Continued injection after the unstable shut-in stage, signified by an unusual increase in slip rate and an accelerated drop in injection pressure, could result in rapid and unstable fracture slip.
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  • 56
    Publication Date: 2024-01-30
    Description: We present Rapid Assessment of MOmeNt and Energy Service (RAMONES), a service for disseminating through a web interface, the estimates of seismic moment (M0) and radiated energy (ER) for earthquakes occurring in central Italy with local magnitudes above 1.7. The service is based on a fully-automatic procedure developed for downloading and processing open seismological data from the European Integrated Data Archive, Italian Civil Protection repository, and Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS). In its actual configuration, RAMONES uses the seismic catalog generated through the event webservice of the Italian Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (compliant with International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks standards) to guide the data download. The concept of RAMONES is to estimate M0 and ER from features extracted directly from recordings, namely the S-wave peak displacement (PDS) and the integral of the squared velocity (IV2S) evaluated over the S-wave window at local distances. A data set composed of 6515 earthquakes recorded in central Italy between 2008 and 2018 was used to calibrate the attenuation models relating M0 to PDS and ER to IV2S, including station corrections. The calibration values for M0 and ER were extracted from the source spectra obtained by applying a decomposition approach to the Fourier amplitude spectra known as the generalized inversion technique. To test the capabilities of RAMONES, we validate the attenuation models by performing residual analysis over about 60 earthquakes occurring in 2019 that were used for the spectral decomposition analysis but not considered in the calibration phase. Since January 2020, a testing operational phase has been running, and RAMONES has analyzed about 800 earthquakes by September 2020. The distribution of the source parameters and their relevant scaling relationships are automatically computed and disseminated in the form of maps, parametric tables, figures, and reports available through the RAMONES web interface.
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  • 57
    Publication Date: 2024-01-30
    Description: This article reviews laboratory experimental studies on hydraulic fracturing under triaxial and true triaxial stress conditions in crystalline rock for geothermal purposes, and places particular focus on the stimulation of Enhanced Geothermal Systems. First, parameters that influence hydraulic fracture initiation and propagation and breakdown pressure are reviewed and discussed. The parameters including micro-structure, fluid viscosity, injection rate, and fluid infiltration, and stress conditions are identified as the key controlling factors in hydraulic fracture growth in hard rock. Second, innovative injection schemes, such as cyclic and fatigue hydraulic fracturing, are reviewed because they show advantages both in fracture network creation in granite and in mitigating and controlling induced seismicity via fluid injection. Third, this review includes fracture-inspection techniques, non-destructive methods of acoustic emission (AE) monitoring and X-ray computed tomography (CT), and microscopic observations used for quantifying the efficiency of injection protocols. In addition to AE parameters, such as AE event rate and source location, we emphasize the importance of in-depth AE analysis on the failure mode and radiated seismic energy. X-ray CT and microscopic observation enable fractures in the rock volume to be quantified, and thereby lead to a better understanding the mechanism behind hydraulic fracturing. Combined measurements of AE and CT yield insights into the complex process of hydraulic fracture and permeability enhancement. The discussion section is enriched with diagrams that connect the injection rate and the resulting fluid infiltration zone and fracture process zone, granite-specific hydraulic fracturing behavior, and practical upscaling elements for potential field applications in geothermal fields.
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  • 58
    Publication Date: 2024-01-30
    Description: The growth of global ground-motion databases has allowed generation of nonergodic ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) based on specific on-site recordings. Several studies have investigated the differences between the hazard estimates from ergodic versus non-ergodic GMPEs. Here instead we focus on the impact of non-ergodic PSHA estimates on the seismic risk of nonlinear single-degree-of-freedom systems representing ductile structures and compare it with the traditional risk estimates obtained using ergodic GMPEs. The structure-and-site-specific risk estimates depend not only on the difference in the hazard estimates but also on the different hazard-consistent ground-motion record selection that informs the response calculation. The more accurate structure-and-site-specific non-ergodic risk estimates show that traditional ones may be biased in a way impossible to predict a priori. Hence, the use of the non-ergodic approach is recommended, whenever possible. However, further advancements of non-ergodic GMPEs are necessary before being routinely utilized in real-life risk assessment applications.
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  • 59
    Publication Date: 2024-01-30
    Description: This study presents the coupling of the spectral decomposition results for anelastic attenuation, stress drop, and site effects with the Graves-Pitarka (GP) hybrid ground-motion simulation methodology, as implemented on the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) broadband platform (BBP). It is targeted to applications in the Upper Rhine graben (URG), which is among the seismically active areas in western Europe, yet a moderate seismicity area. Our development consists of three main steps: (1) calibration of regional highfrequency (HF) attenuation properties; (2) modification of the hybrid approach to add compressional waves in the HF computation and examine various strategies to evaluate site amplification factors in the Fourier domain (e.g., VS30-based or site-specific factors); (3) testing of the simulations using earthquake records from the URG (3:7 〈 Mw 〈 5). The validation process of the simulated time histories is performed first on rock sites, and, then subsequently at all stations, whatever their site conditions. The performance of the simulations for rock sites is assessed through the standard validation technique in the BBP (comparison of the waveforms, intensity measures, and estimation of the response spectra model bias). We additionally compare the Fourier amplitude spectrum of the simulations and observations, and compute their corresponding bias. The results show that the simulated ground motions match the general characteristics of the recorded motions, and that the model bias generally fluctuates around zero across the broadband frequency range. Hence, the hybrid ground-motion methodology implemented in the SCEC BBP can be successfully applied outside high-seismicity areas and outside those areas for which it had been generally calibrated. Our results also show that HF modification and calibration were necessary to improve the fits with the observation, and demonstrate the potential benefits of using site-specific amplification factors compared to VS30-based amplification factors.
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  • 60
    Publication Date: 2023-01-06
    Description: Buildings energy consumption is one of the most important contributors to GHG emissions worldwide, responsible for 23% of energy-related CO2 emissions. Decarbonising buildings energy demand will pass through two types of strategies: first through an overall reduction of energy demand, that could to some extent be reaped at negative costs; and second through a reduction of the carbon content of energy via fuel switching and supply side decarbonisation. This study assesses the contributions of each of these strategies for the decarbonisation of the buildings sector in line with a 1.5°C global warming. We show that in a 1.5°C scenario combining mitigation policies and a reduction of market failures in efficiency markets, 81% of the reductions in buildings emissions are achieved through the reduction of the carbon content of energy, while the remaining 19% are due to efficiency improvements which reduce energy demand by 31%. Without supply side decarbonisation, efficiency improvements almost entirely suppress the doubling of emissions that would otherwise be expected, but fail to induce an absolute decline in emissions. Our modelling and scenarios show the impact of both climate change mitigation policies and of the alleviation of market failures pervading through energy efficiency markets. The results show that the reduction of the carbon content of energy through fuel switching and supply-side decarbonisation is of paramount importance for the decarbonisation of buildings.
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  • 61
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    In:  Environmental Research Letters
    Publication Date: 2023-05-24
    Description: Based on suggested interactions of potential tipping elements in the Earth's climate and in ecological systems, tipping cascades as possible dynamics are increasingly discussed and studied as their activation would impose a considerable risk for human societies and biosphere integrity. However, there are ambiguities in the description of tipping cascades within the literature so far. Here we illustrate how different patterns of multiple tipping dynamics emerge from a very simple coupling of two previously studied idealized tipping elements. In particular, we distinguish between a two phase cascade, a domino cascade and a joint cascade. While a mitigation of an unfolding two phase cascade may be possible and common early warning indicators are sensitive to upcoming critical transitions to a certain degree, the domino cascade may hardly be stopped once initiated and critical slowing down–based indicators fail to indicate tipping of the following element. These different potentials for intervention and anticipation across the distinct patterns of multiple tipping dynamics should be seen as a call to be more precise in future analyses on cascading dynamics arising from tipping element interactions in the Earth system.
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  • 62
    Publication Date: 2023-05-24
    Description: Mass loss from the Antarctic Ice Sheet is the main source of uncertainty in projections of future sea-level rise, with important implications for coastal regions worldwide. Central to this is the marine ice sheet instability: once a critical threshold, or tipping point, is crossed, ice-internal dynamics can drive a self-amplifying retreat committing a glacier to irreversible, rapid and substantial ice loss. This process might have already been triggered in the Amundsen Sea region, where Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers dominate the current mass loss from Antarctica, but modelling and observational techniques have not been able to establish this rigorously, leading to divergent views on the future mass loss of the WAIS. Here, we aim at closing this knowledge gap by conducting a systematic investigation of the stability regime of Pine Island Glacier. To this end we show that early warning indicators robustly detect critical slowing for the marine ice sheet instability. We are thereby able to identify three distinct tipping points in response to increases in ocean-induced melt. The third and final event, triggered by an ocean warming of approximately 1.2 °C from the steady state model configuration, leads to a retreat of the entire glacier that could initiate a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
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  • 63
    Publication Date: 2023-06-30
    Description: Food system innovations will be instrumental to achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, major innovation breakthroughs can trigger profound and disruptive changes, leading to simultaneous and interlinked reconfigurations of multiple parts of the global food system. The emergence of new technologies or social solutions, therefore, have very different impact profiles, with favourable consequences for some SDGs and unintended adverse side-effects for others. Stand-alone innovations seldom achieve positive outcomes over multiple sustainability dimensions. Instead, they should be embedded as part of systemic changes that facilitate the implementation of the SDGs. Emerging trade-offs need to be intentionally addressed to achieve true sustainability, particularly those involving social aspects like inequality in its many forms, social justice, and strong institutions, which remain challenging. Trade-offs with undesirable consequences are manageable through the development of well planned transition pathways, careful monitoring of key indicators, and through the implementation of transparent science targets at the local level.
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  • 64
    Publication Date: 2023-07-11
    Description: Over the last decade, the world warmed by 0.25 °C, in-line with the roughly linear trend since the 1970s. Here we present updated analyses showing that this seemingly small shift has led to the emergence of heat extremes that would be virtually impossible without anthropogenic global warming. Also, record rainfall extremes have continued to increase worldwide and, on average, 1 in 4 rainfall records in the last decade can be attributed to climate change. Tropical regions, comprised of vulnerable countries that typically contributed least to anthropogenic climate change, continue to see the strongest increase in extremes.
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  • 65
    Publication Date: 2023-07-26
    Description: Summer 2010 saw two simultaneous extremes linked by an atmospheric wave train: a record-breaking heatwave in Russia and severe floods in Pakistan. Here, we study this wave event using a large ensemble climate model experiment. First, we show that the circulation in 2010 reflected a recurrent wave train connecting the heatwave and flooding events. Second, we show that the occurrence of the wave train is favored by three drivers: (1) 2010 sea surface temperature anomalies increase the probability of this wave train by a factor 2-to-4 relative to the model’s climatology, (2) early-summer soil moisture deficit in Russia not only increases the probability of local heatwaves, but also enhances rainfall extremes over Pakistan by forcing an atmospheric wave response, and (3) high-latitude land warming favors wave-train occurrence and therefore rainfall and heat extremes. These findings highlight the complexity and synergistic interactions between different drivers, reconciling some seemingly contradictory results from previous studies.
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  • 66
    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Description: Despite substantial conservation efforts, the loss of ecosystems continues globally, along with related declines in species and nature’s contributions to people. An effective ecosystem goal, supported by clear milestones, targets and indicators, is urgently needed for the post-2020 global biodiversity framework and beyond to support biodiversity conservation, the UN Sustainable Development Goals and efforts to abate climate change. Here, we describe the scientific foundations for an ecosystem goal and milestones, founded on a theory of change, and review available indicators to measure progress. An ecosystem goal should include three core components: area, integrity and risk of collapse. Targets—the actions that are necessary for the goals to be met—should address the pathways to ecosystem loss and recovery, including safeguarding remnants of threatened ecosystems, restoring their area and integrity to reduce risk of collapse and retaining intact areas. Multiple indicators are needed to capture the different dimensions of ecosystem area, integrity and risk of collapse across all ecosystem types, and should be selected for their fitness for purpose and relevance to goal components. Science-based goals, supported by well-formulated action targets and fit-for-purpose indicators, will provide the best foundation for reversing biodiversity loss and sustaining human well-being.
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  • 67
    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Description: The COVID-19 pandemic continues to strongly affect global energy systems. Global power sector CO2 emissions have shown a substantial decline, thanks to (a) the COVID-19-induced economic downturn and resulting reduction of electricity demand and (b) a decrease of carbon intensity of power generation as coal generation is decreased most strongly. These effects illustrate the opportunity for different policies to support a structural and accelerating decline of power sector emissions.
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  • 68
    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Description: Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794–2016 CE at 0.79 (p 〈 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.
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  • 69
    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Description: Tropical cyclone (TC) impacts are expected to worsen under continued global warming and socio-economic development. Here we combine TC simulations with an impact model to quantify country-level population exposure to TC winds for different magnitudes of global mean surface temperature increase and future population distributions. We estimate an annual global TC exposure increase of 26% (33 million people) for a 1 °C increase in global mean surface temperature, assuming present-day population. The timing of warming matters when additionally accounting for population change, with global population projected to peak around mid-century and decline thereafter. A middle-of-the-road socio-economic scenario combined with 2 °C of warming around 2050 increases exposure by 41% (52 million). A stronger mitigation scenario reaching 2 °C around 2100 limits this increase to 20% (25 million). Rapid climate action therefore avoids interference with peak global population timing and limits climate-change-driven exposure. Cumulatively, over 1.8 billion people could be saved by 2100.
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  • 70
    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Description: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)—one of Earth’s major ocean circulation systems—redistributes heat on our planet and has a major impact on climate. Here, we compare a variety of published proxy records to reconstruct the evolution of the AMOC since about ad 400. A fairly consistent picture of the AMOC emerges: after a long and relatively stable period, there was an initial weakening starting in the nineteenth century, followed by a second, more rapid, decline in the mid-twentieth century, leading to the weakest state of the AMOC occurring in recent decades.
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  • 71
    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Description: Recent studies have shown that hydro-climatic extremes have increased significantly in number and intensity in the last decades. In the Northern Hemisphere such events were often associated with long lasting persistent weather patterns. In 2018, hot and dry conditions prevailed for several months over Central Europe leading to record-breaking temperatures and severe harvest losses. The underlying circulation processes are still not fully understood and there is a need for improved methodologies to detect and quantify persistent weather conditions. Here, we propose a new method to detect, compare and quantify persistence through atmosphere similarity patterns by applying established image recognition methods to day to day atmospheric fields. We find that persistent weather patterns have increased in number and intensity over the last decades in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude summer, link this to hydro-climatic risks and evaluate the extreme summers of 2010 (Russian heat wave) and of 2018 (European drought). We further evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce long-term trend patterns of weather persistence and the result is a notable discrepancy to observed developments.
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  • 72
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    In:  Scientific Reports
    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Description: Urban scaling theory explains the increasing returns to scale of urban wealth indicators by the per capita increase of human interactions within cities. This explanation implicitly assumes urban areas as isolated entities and ignores their interactions. Here we investigate the effects of commuting networks on the gross domestic product (GDP) of urban areas in the US and Brazil. We describe the urban GDP as the output of a production process where population, incoming commuters, and interactions between these quantities are the input variables. This approach significantly refines the description of urban GDP and shows that incoming commuters contribute to wealth creation in urban areas. Our research indicates that changes in urban GDP related to proportionate changes in population and incoming commuters depend on the initial values of these quantities, such that increasing returns to scale are only possible when the product between population and incoming commuters exceeds a well-defined threshold.
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  • 73
    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Description: Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to −6% (SSP126) and from +1% to −24% (SSP585)—explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The ‘emergence’ of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections—before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.
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  • 74
    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
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  • 75
    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Description: The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate–ecological–social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.
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  • 76
    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Description: To design incentives towards achieving climate mitigation targets, it is important to understand the mechanisms that affect individual climate decisions such as solar panel installation. It has been shown that peer effects are important in determining the uptake and spread of household photovoltaic installations. Due to coarse geographical data, it remains unclear whether this effect is generated through geographical proximity or within groups exhibiting similar characteristics. Here we show that geographical proximity is the most important predictor of solar panel implementation, and that peer effects diminish with distance. Using satellite imagery, we build a unique geo-located dataset for the city of Fresno to specify the importance of small distances. Employing machine learning techniques, we find the density of solar panels within the shortest measured radius of an address is the most important factor in determining the likelihood of that address having a solar panel. The importance of geographical proximity decreases with distance following an exponential curve with a decay radius of 210 meters. The dependence is slightly more pronounced in low-income groups. These findings support the model of distance-related social diffusion, and suggest priority should be given to seeding panels in areas where few exist.
    Language: English
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  • 77
    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Description: Ambitious climate policies, as well as economic development, education, technological progress and less resource-intensive lifestyles, are crucial elements for progress towards the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, using an integrated modelling framework covering 56 indicators or proxies across all 17 SDGs, we show that they are insufficient to reach the targets. An additional sustainable development package, including international climate finance, progressive redistribution of carbon pricing revenues, sufficient and healthy nutrition and improved access to modern energy, enables a more comprehensive sustainable development pathway. We quantify climate and SDG outcomes, showing that these interventions substantially boost progress towards many aspects of the UN Agenda 2030 and simultaneously facilitate reaching ambitious climate targets. Nonetheless, several important gaps remain; for example, with respect to the eradication of extreme poverty (180 million people remaining in 2030). These gaps can be closed by 2050 for many SDGs while also respecting the 1.5 °C target and several other planetary boundaries.
    Language: English
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  • 78
    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Description: The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted with ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor with coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using 100 multiple models, but mostly used previous generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models, and find that limiting global warming to 1.5°C since preindustrial would halve the land ice contribution to sea level rise this century, relative to 105 predictions for current climate pledges under the Paris Agreement: the median 4 decreases from 25 to 13 cm sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to emissions scenario, due to competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing 110 the median land ice contribution to 42 cm SLE under current policies and pledges, with the upper end (95th percentile) exceeding half a metre even under 1.5°C warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained, adaptation must therefore plan for a factor 115 of three uncertainty in the land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise.
    Language: English
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  • 79
    Publication Date: 2023-07-27
    Description: Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered an important negative emissions (NEs) technology, but might involve substantial irrigation on biomass plantations. Potential water stress resulting from the additional withdrawals warrants evaluation against the avoided climate change impact. Here we quantitatively assess potential side effects of BECCS with respect to water stress by disentangling the associated drivers (irrigated biomass plantations, climate, land use patterns) using comprehensive global model simulations. By considering a widespread use of irrigated biomass plantations, global warming by the end of the 21st century could be limited to 1.5 °C compared to a climate change scenario with 3 °C. However, our results suggest that both the global area and population living under severe water stress in the BECCS scenario would double compared to today and even exceed the impact of climate change. Such side effects of achieving substantial NEs would come as an extra pressure in an already water-stressed world and could only be avoided if sustainable water management were implemented globally.
    Language: English
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  • 80
    Publication Date: 2023-10-11
    Description: All relevant model outputs to reproduce main analyses and figures in Sakschewski et al. 2021: Variable tree rooting strategies are key to model distribution, productivity and evapotranspiration of tropical evergreen forests, Biogeosciences; https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-97
    Language: English
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  • 81
    Publication Date: 2023-10-11
    Description: Reforestation and afforestation is expected to achieve a quarter of all emission reduction pledged under the Paris Agreement. Trees store carbon in biomass and soil but also alter the surface energy balance, warming or cooling the local climate. Mitigation scenarios and policies often neglect these biogeophysical (BGP) effects. Here we combine observational BGP datasets with carbon uptake or emission data to assess the end-of-century mitigation potential of forestation. Forestation and conservation of tropical forests achieve the highest climate benefit at 732.12 tCO2e ha–1. Higher-latitude forests warm the local winter climate, affecting 73.7% of temperate forests. Almost a third (29.8%) of forests above 56° N induce net winter warming if only their biomass is considered. Including soil carbon reduces the net warming area to 6.8% but comes with high uncertainty (2.9–42.0%). Our findings emphasize the necessity to conserve and re-establish tropical forests and consider BGP effects in policy scenarios.
    Language: English
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  • 82
    Publication Date: 2023-10-11
    Description: Delaying climate mitigation action and allowing a temporary overshoot of temperature targets require large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the second half of this century that may induce adverse side effects on land, food and ecosystems. Meanwhile, meeting climate goals without global net-negative emissions inevitably needs early and rapid emission reduction measures, which also brings challenges in the near term. Here we identify the implications for land-use and food systems of scenarios that do not depend on land-based CDR technologies. We find that early climate action has multiple benefits and trade-offs, and avoids the need for drastic (mitigation-induced) shifts in land use in the long term. Further long-term benefits are lower food prices, reduced risk of hunger and lower demand for irrigation water. Simultaneously, however, near-term mitigation pressures in the agriculture, forest and land-use sector and the required land area for energy crops increase, resulting in additional risk of food insecurity.
    Language: English
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  • 83
    Publication Date: 2023-10-11
    Description: Model code of LPJmL4.0-VR as used in Sakschewski et al. 2021: Variable tree rooting strategies are key to model distribution, productivity and evapotranspiration of tropical evergreen forests, Biogeosciences; https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-97
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  • 84
    Publication Date: 2023-10-11
    Description: Global food security is threatened by the effects of COVID-19 on international agricultural supply chains and locusts destroying crops and livelihoods in the Horn of Africa and South Asia. We quantify the possible impacts on global supplies and prices of wheat, rice and maize. We show that local production declines have moderate impacts on global prices and supply—but trade restrictions and precautionary purchases by a few key actors could create global food price spikes and severe local food shortages.
    Language: English
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  • 85
    Publication Date: 2023-10-11
    Description: The terrestrial carbon sink provides a critical negative feedback to climate warming, yet large uncertainty exists on its long-term dynamics. Here we combined terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) and climate projections, together with climate-specific land use change, to investigate both the trend and interannual variability (IAV) of the terrestrial carbon sink from 1986 to 2099 under two representative concentration pathways RCP2.6 and RCP6.0. The results reveal a saturation of the terrestrial carbon sink by the end of this century under RCP6.0 due to warming and declined CO2 effects. Compared to 1986-2005 (0.96±0.44 Pg C yr-1), during 2080-2099 the terrestrial carbon sink would decrease to 0.60±0.71 Pg C yr-1 but increase to 3.36±0.77 Pg C yr-1, respectively, under RCP2.6 and RCP6.0. The carbon sink caused by CO2, land use change and climate change during 2080-2099 is -0.08±0.11 Pg C yr-1, 0.44±0.05 Pg C yr-1, and 0.24±0.70 Pg C yr-1 under RCP2.6, and 4.61±0.17 Pg C yr-1, 0.22±0.07 Pg C yr-1, and -1.47±0.72 Pg C yr-1 under RCP6.0. In addition, the carbon sink IAV shows stronger variance under RCP6.0 than RCP2.6. Under RCP2.6, temperature shows higher correlation with the carbon sink IAV than precipitation in most time, which however is the opposite under RCP6.0. These results suggest that the role of terrestrial carbon sink in curbing climate warming would be weakened in a no-mitigation world in future, and active mitigation efforts are required as assumed under RCP2.6.
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  • 86
    Publication Date: 2023-10-11
    Description: How Global Gridded Crop Models (GGCMs) differ in their simulation of potential yield and reasons for those differences have never been assessed. The GGCM Inter-comparison (GGCMI) offers a good framework for this assessment. Here, we built an emulator (called SMM for Simple Mechanistic Model) of GGCMs based on generic and simplified formalism. The SMM equations describe crop phenology by a sum of growing degree days, canopy radiation absorption by the Beer-Lambert law, and its conversion into aboveground biomass by a radiation use efficiency (RUE). We fitted the parameters of this emulator against gridded aboveground maize biomass at the end of the growing season simulated by eight different GGCMs in a given year (2000). Our assumption is that the simple set of equations of SMM, after calibration, could reproduce the response of most GGCMs, so that differences between GGCMs can be attributed to the parameters related to processes captured by the emulator. Despite huge differences between GGCMs, we show that if we fit both a parameter describing the thermal requirement for leaf emergence by adjusting its value to each grid-point in space, as done by GGCM modellers following the GGCMI protocol, and a GGCM-dependent globally uniform RUE, then the simple set of equations of the SMM emulator is sufficient to reproduce the spatial distribution of the original aboveground biomass simulated by most GGCMs. The grain filling is simulated in SMM by considering a fixed in time fraction of net primary productivity allocated to the grain (frac) once a threshold in leaves number (nthresh) is reached. Once calibrated, these two parameters allow to capture the relationship between potential yield and final aboveground biomass of each GGCM. It is particularly important as the divergence among GGCMs is larger for yield than for aboveground biomass. Thus, we showed that the divergence between GGCMs can be summarized by the differences in few parameters. Our simple but mechanistic model could also be an interesting tool to test new developments in order to improve the simulation of potential yield at the global scale.
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  • 87
    Publication Date: 2023-10-11
    Description: This data archive contains model runs and data analysis files to the research article "Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low emission scenarios" by Gunnar Luderer, Silvia Madeddu, Leon Merfort, Falko Ueckerdt, Michaja Pehl, Robert Pietzcker, Marianna Rottoli, Felix Schreyer, Nico Bauer, Lavinia Baumstark, Christoph Bertram, Alois Dirnaichner, Florian Humpenöder, Antoine Levesque, Alexander Popp, Renato Rodrigues, Jessica Strefler, Elmar Kriegler
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  • 88
    Publication Date: 2023-10-11
    Description: Out of 1150 Mha (million hectares) of forest designated primarily for production purposes in 2020, plantations accounted for 11 % (131 Mha) of this area and fulfilled more than 33 % of the global industrial roundwood demand. However, adding additional timber plantations to meet increasing timber demand intensifies competition for scarce land resources between different land uses such as food, feed, livestock and timber production. Despite the significance of plantations with respect to roundwood production, their importance in meeting the long-term timber demand and the implications of plantation expansion for overall land-use dynamics have not been studied in detail, in particular regarding the competition for land between agriculture and forestry in existing land-use models. This paper describes the extension of the modular, open-source land system Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment (MAgPIE) using a detailed representation of forest land, timber production and timber demand dynamics. These extensions allow for a better understanding of the land-use dynamics (including competition for land) and the associated land-use change emissions of timber production. We show that the spatial cropland patterns differ when timber production is accounted for, indicating that timber plantations compete with cropland for the same scarce land resources. When plantations are established on cropland, it causes cropland expansion and deforestation elsewhere. Using the exogenous extrapolation of historical roundwood production from plantations, future timber demand and plantation rotation lengths, we model the future spatial expansion of forest plantations. As a result of increasing timber demand, we show a 177 % increase in plantation area by the end of the century (+171 Mha in 1995–2100). We also observe (in our model results) that the increasing demand for timber amplifies the scarcity of land, which is indicated by shifting agricultural land-use patterns and increasing yields from cropland compared with a case without forestry. Through the inclusion of new forest plantation and natural forest dynamics, our estimates of land-related CO2 emissions better match with observed data, in particular the gross land-use change emissions and carbon uptake (via regrowth), reflecting higher deforestation with the expansion of managed land and timber production as well as higher regrowth in natural forests and plantations.
    Language: English
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  • 89
    Publication Date: 2023-10-11
    Description: A variety of modelling studies have suggested tree rooting depth as a key variable to explain evapotranspiration rates, productivity and the geographical distribution of evergreen forests in tropical South America. However, none of those studies have acknowledged resource investment, timing and physical constraints of tree rooting depth within a competitive environment, undermining the ecological realism of their results. Here, we present an approach of implementing variable rooting strategies and dynamic root growth into the LPJmL4.0 (Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land) dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) and apply it to tropical and sub-tropical South America under contemporary climate conditions. We show how competing rooting strategies which underlie the trade-off between above- and below-ground carbon investment lead to more realistic simulation of intra-annual productivity and evapotranspiration and consequently of forest cover and spatial biomass distribution. We find that climate and soil depth determine a spatially heterogeneous pattern of mean rooting depth and below-ground biomass across the study region. Our findings support the hypothesis that the ability of evergreen trees to adjust their rooting systems to seasonally dry climates is crucial to explaining the current dominance, productivity and evapotranspiration of evergreen forests in tropical South America.
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  • 90
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    A report prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in cooperation with the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)
    Publication Date: 2023-10-11
    Description: Burkina Faso has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture, a sector which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and increasingly challenged by the impacts of climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the agricultural sector in the country. Therefore, this study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of four potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Burkina Faso. The impact assessment consists of several steps including climate projections based on two emissions scenarios (SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP1-RCP2.6), hydro-logical modelling on water availability changes, modelling and comparison of future yields of four widely used crops (maize, sorghum, millet and cowpeas) and an assessment of livestock production under future climate conditions. Based on the projected climate change impacts on agricultural production, four different adapta-tion strategies ((1) Integrated soil fertility ma-nagement (ISFM), (2) irrigation, (3) improved seeds and (4) climate information services (CIS)) suggested and selected by different national stakeholders were analysed regarding their potential to risk mitigation, (cost-)effectiveness and suitability for local conditions. The analyses have been further complemented by expert- and literature-based assessments, semi-structured key informant interviews and two stakeholder work-shops. The results show that the mean daily temperature is on the rise and projected to increase further by 0.6°C (2030) up to 1.1°C (2090) under SSP1-RCP2.6 and by 0.5°C (2030) up to 3.6°C (2090) under SSP3-RCP7.0 in reference to 2004, dependent on future greenhouse gas emissions. Some un-certainty exists for annual precipitation projections, with slight increases until 2050 followed by a slight decrease under SSP1-RCP2.6 and continuous increase under SSP3-RCP7.0 with high year-to-year variability. Projected impacts of cli-mate change on yields vary between regions and show partly opposing trends. Some regions in the north show increasing yields (up to +30% in SSP1-RCP2.6 and up to +20% in SSP3-RCP7.0), while few regions in the south present decreasing yields (down to -30% in SSP1-RCP2.6 and down to -20% in SSP3-RCP7.0). Crop models show that the areas suitable for cowpeas will decrease in Burkina Faso under future climate change conditions while the suitability for maize, millet and sorghum will remain stable. Moreover, the potential to produce multiple crops will become more and more difficult, which limits farmers’ diversification options. Regarding the livestock sector, it seems very likely that the grazing potential will decrease under both climate change scenarios with higher decreases under SSP1-RCP2.6 than under SSP3-RCP7.0. All four adaptation strategies were found to be economically beneficial, can have a high potential for risk mitigation and entail different co-benefits. Particularly, ISFM can be highly recommended for smallholder farmers, resulting in very positive effects for societies and environment. Irrigation and improved seeds have a high potential to improve livelihoods especially in Northern Burkina Faso, but are also complex, costly and support-intensive adaptation strategies. Lastly, CIS can support farmers to make informed decisions and thereby reduce the impact of climate risks. Generally, a combination of different adaptation strategies can entail additional benefits and active stakeholder engagement as well as participatory approaches are needed to ensure the feasibility and long-term sustainability of adaptation strategies. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation and agricultural development planning and investments in order to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers against a changing climate.
    Language: English , French
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  • 91
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    A report prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in cooperation with the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)
    Publication Date: 2023-10-11
    Description: Niger has a high socio-economic dependency on agriculture which is strongly influenced by weather-related factors and highly vulnerable to climate change. Currently, only limited information on climate risks and its impacts is available for the agricultural sector in the country. Therefore, this study aims to provide a comprehensive climate risk analysis including a thorough evaluation of four potential adaptation strategies that can guide local decision makers on adaptation planning and implementation in Niger: (1) agroforestry and farmer managed natural regeneration (FMNR) of trees, (2) integrated soil fertility management (ISFM), (3) irrigation and (4) improved fodder management for livestock. The impact assessment includes climate projections based on two future emissions scenarios (SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP1-RCP2.6), hydrological modelling on water availability, modelling and comparison of future yields of four dominant crops (sorghum, millet, maize and cowpeas) and an as-sessment of livestock production under future climate conditions. Based on the projected climate change impacts on agricultural production, the four adaptation strategies suggested by different national stakeholders were analysed regarding their potential to risk mitigation, cost-effectiveness and suitability for local conditions. The analyses have been complemented by expert- and literature-based assessments, semi-structured interviews and two stakeholder workshops. The results show that the mean daily temperature is projected to increase further in Niger, up to +1.3 °C (SSP1-RCP2.6) and +4.2 °C (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2090, in reference to 2004. The mean annual precipitation sum is also projected to increase until 2050 under both emissions scenarios, with a slight decrease in the interannual variability. In the second half of the century, this trend in precipitation is likely to continue (SSP3-RCP7.0) or decrease slightly (SSP1-RCP2.6), while the year-to-year variability would increase. Greater annual rates of groundwater recharge due to increasing precipitation amounts and higher annual mean river discharge are expected until mid-century. Sorghum yields would decline in general, by 20-50% (SSP1-RCP2.6) or 40-75% (SSP3-RCP7.0) by 2090, compared to 2005. Crop models hinted at an increase in the suitability of sorghum and millet, and no significant change for maize and cowpeas in Niger under both emissions scenarios. In addition, the potential for multiple cropping would de-crease from mid-century, limiting farmers’ diversification options. Regarding the livestock sector, the grazing potential is likely to decrease in the south and increase in the central regions of Niger, under SSP1-RCP2.6, while it is expected to increase in the whole country under SSP3-RCP7.0. All four adaptation strategies were found to be economically beneficial, risk-independent, with a medium to high risk mitigation potential, and can bring about various co-benefits. FMNR practice can be highly recommended, as the upscaling potential is high and the climate resilience of local livelihoods will be strengthened. ISFM can help to improve water use efficiency and benefit from positive environmental and social outcomes. Irrigation has a medium potential to improve livelihoods of smallholder farmers but is also a support-intensive adaptation strategy that needs to be carefully implemented in order to avoid overexploitation of local water resources. Lastly, improved fodder management, especially al-falfa production, contributes to building up resilience of livestock farming systems and affects women and youth employment positively. Gener-ally, a combination of different adaptation strategies can yield additional benefits and active stake-holder engagement as well as participatory ap-proaches are needed to ensure the feasibility and sustainability of adaptation strategies. The findings of this study can help to inform national and local adaptation as well as development planning and investments in order to strengthen the climate resilience of the Nigerien agricultural sector and especially of smallholder farmers.
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  • 92
    Publication Date: 2023-10-18
    Description: Current world agriculture leads to planetary-boundary transgressions. Although achieving global food security within these environmental bounds is possible through sustainable transformations of the food system, Earth-system feedbacks could increasingly narrow the maneuvering space. Thus, improved understanding of cascading impacts of climate change and other boundary transgressions is imperative.
    Language: English
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  • 93
    Publication Date: 2023-11-23
    Description: Sustainable food systems require the integration of, and alignment between, recommendations for food and land use practices – as well as the understanding of the political economy context and identification of entry points for change. We propose a Food Systems Transformation Framework that takes these elements into account and links long-term goals with short-term measures and policies, ultimately guiding the decomposition of transformation pathways into concrete steps. Taking the transition to healthier and more sustainable diets as example, we underscore the centrality of social inclusion to the food systems transformation debate.
    Language: English
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  • 94
    Publication Date: 2023-11-23
    Description: Climate change threatens to undermine efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. However, climate policies could impose a financial burden on the global poor through increased energy and food prices. Here, we project poverty rates until 2050 and assess how they are influenced by mitigation policies consistent with the 1.5 °C target. A continuation of historical trends will leave 350 million people globally in extreme poverty by 2030. Without progressive redistribution, climate policies would push an additional 50 million people into poverty. However, redistributing the national carbon pricing revenues domestically as an equal-per-capita climate dividend compensates this policy side effect, even leading to a small net reduction of the global poverty headcount (−6 million). An additional international climate finance scheme enables a substantial poverty reduction globally and also in Sub-Saharan Africa. Combining national redistribution with international climate finance thus provides an important entry point to climate policy in developing countries.
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  • 95
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    In:  Proceedings of ASME Turbo Expo 2021: Turbomachinery Technical Conference and Exposition (Volume 3B)
    Publication Date: 2023-12-13
    Description: The complex interaction between the turbulent flow, combustion and the acoustic field in gas turbine engines often results in thermoacoustic instability that produces ruinously high-amplitude pressure oscillations. These self-sustained periodic oscillations may result in a sudden failure of engine components and associated electronics, and increased thermal and vibra-tional loads. Estimating the amplitude of the limit cycle oscillations (LCO) that are expected during thermoacoustic instability helps in devising strategies to mitigate and to limit the possible damages due to thermoacoustic instability. We propose two methodologies to estimate the amplitude using only the pressure measurements acquired during stable operation. First, we use the universal scaling relation of the amplitude of the dominant mode of oscillations with the Hurst exponent to predict the amplitude of the LCO. We also present a methodology to estimate the amplitudes of different modes of oscillations separately using ‘spectral measures’ which quantify the sharpening of peaks in the amplitude spectrum. The scaling relation enables us to predict the peak amplitude at thermoacoustic instability, given the data during the safe operating condition. The accuracy of prediction is tested for both methods, using the data acquired from a laboratory-scale turbulent combustor. The estimates are in good agreement with the actual amplitudes.
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  • 96
    Publication Date: 2024-03-06
    Description: We summarize some of the past year’s most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2 factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements. Technical summary. A synthesis is made of 10 topics within cli- mate research, where there have been significant advances since January 2020. The insights are based on input from an inter- national open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) the options to still keep global warming below 1.5 °C; (2) the impact of non-CO2 factors in global warming; (3) a new dimension of fire extremes forced by climate change; (4) the increasing pressure on interconnected climate tipping elements; (5) the dimensions of climate justice; (6) political chal- lenges impeding the effectiveness of carbon pricing; (7) demand- side solutions as vehicles of climate mitigation; (8) the potentials and caveats of nature-based solutions; (9) how building resili- ence of marine ecosystems is possible; and (10) that the costs of climate change mitigation policies can be more than justified by the benefits to the health of humans and nature. Social media summary. How do we limit global warming to 1.5 °C and why is it crucial? See highlights of latest climate science.
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  • 97
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Singapore :Springer Nature Singapore :
    Keywords: Biotechnology. ; Atoms. ; Molecules. ; Biotechnology. ; Atomic, Molecular and Chemical Physics.
    Description / Table of Contents: Photonic crystals for biomolecule sensing applications -- Recent advances in Surface Plasmon Resonance for biosensing applications and future prospects -- Surface-enhanced Raman Scattering for biology and medicine -- Nanophotonic techniques for single cell analysis -- Biointerface Characterization by Nonlinear Optical Spectroscopy -- Chemiluminescence and its biomedical applications -- Luminescent Conjugated Polymer Dots for Biomedical Applications -- Dark-Field Hyperspectral Imaging (DF-HSI) Modalities for Characterization of Single Molecule and Cellular Processes -- Additive Manufacturing Technologies based on Photopolymerization.
    Abstract: This book summarizes the latest advances in nanophotonics for biomedical applications, including biomolecular sensing and imaging, additive fabrications, and biophotonics. The engineering of nanophotonics will have significant impacts on the life sciences and medicine alike. Given its scope, the book offers a valuable asset for researchers, scientists, engineers, and graduate students in the fields of biomedical engineering, electrical engineering, materials sciences, optics, biology, and medicine.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    Pages: V, 282 p. 160 illus., 126 illus. in color. , online resource.
    Edition: 1st ed. 2021.
    ISBN: 9789811561375
    DDC: 660.6
    Language: English
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  • 98
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Singapore :Springer Nature Singapore :
    Keywords: Botany. ; Plant genetics. ; Plant ecology. ; Plant Science. ; Plant Genetics. ; Plant Ecology.
    Description / Table of Contents: Preface -- Acknowledgement -- Chapter 1. Taxonomic History -- Chapter 2. Morphology -- Chapter 3. Biology -- Chapter 4. Economic Importance -- Chapter 5. Phylogeny, classification, and biogeography -- Chapter 6. Taxonomic revision -- Chapter 7. Conservation status.
    Abstract: This book provides essential information on the morphology, biology, phytochemistry, pharmaceutical prospects, evolution, phylogeny, biogeography, and taxonomy of Paris (Melanthiaceae), a morphologically distinctive plant genus with great economic importance. Since the establishment of this genus, 70 species and 24 subspecific taxa have been described, resulting in considerable confusion in species delimitation. In this book, the taxonomy of all described taxa is carefully revised. Based on multi-disciplinary evidences, a revised classification system of Paris containing five sections is outlined. Every species is provided with a concise but diagnostic description, a color illustration, photographs that highlight distinguishing characters, examined specimens and distribution range. The interspecific relationships are clarified with an identification key. This monograph offers taxonomists, evolutionary biologists, ecologists, horticulturalists, phytochemists, and practitioners a thorough and up-to-date overview about this interesting plant group. It is equally valuable for undergraduate and graduate students, teachers and professionals engaged in related fields.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    Pages: XIII, 203 p. 134 illus., 110 illus. in color. , online resource.
    Edition: 1st ed. 2021.
    ISBN: 9789811579035
    DDC: 580
    Language: English
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  • 99
    Keywords: Conservation biology. ; Ecology . ; Biotic communities. ; Population biology. ; Animal migration. ; Conservation Biology. ; Theoretical and Statistical Ecology. ; Community and Population Ecology. ; Animal Migration.
    Description / Table of Contents: Chapter 1. The conservation issue -- Chapter 2. Development of hierarchical spatial models for assessing ungulate abundance and habitat relationships -- Chapter 3. Model-based assessment of ungulate-habitat relationships -- Chapter 4. Assessing threats to ungulates and management responses -- Chapter 5. Conservation of tropical forest ungulates: the way forward.
    Abstract: Large ungulates in tropical forests are among the most threatened taxa of mammals. Excessive hunting, degradation of and encroachments on their natural habitats by humans have contributed to drastic reductions in wild ungulate populations in recent decades. As such, reliable assessments of ungulate-habitat relationships and the spatial dynamics of their populations are urgently needed to provide a scientific basis for conservation efforts. However, such rigorous assessments are methodologically complex and logistically difficult, and consequently many commonly used ungulate population survey methods do not address key problems. As a result of such deficiencies, key parameters related to population distribution, abundance, habitat ecology and management of tropical forest ungulates remain poorly understood. This book addresses this critical knowledge gap by examining how population abundance patterns in five threatened species of large ungulates vary across space in the tropical forests of the Nagarahole-Bandipur reserves in southwestern India. It also explains the development and application of an innovative methodology – spatially explicit line transect sampling – based on an advanced hierarchical modelling under the Bayesian inferential framework, which overcomes common methodological deficiencies in current ungulate surveys. The methods and results presented provide valuable reference material for researchers and professionals involved in studying and managing wild ungulate populations around the globe. .
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    Pages: XXVII, 195 p. 46 illus., 16 illus. in color. , online resource.
    Edition: 1st ed. 2021.
    ISBN: 9789811569340
    DDC: 333.9516
    Language: English
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  • 100
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Cham :Springer International Publishing :
    Keywords: Human physiology. ; Reproduction. ; Physiology. ; Anatomy. ; Cytology. ; Human Physiology. ; Reproductive Physiology. ; Anatomy. ; Cell Biology.
    Description / Table of Contents: Chapter 1: Introduction -- Chapter 2: Origin and development of the breast -- Chapter 3: Structure of the lactating breast -- Chapter 4: Breast function during the initial period of lactation (lactogenesis I and II) -- Chapter 5: The period of established lactation (lactogenesis III).
    Abstract: This comprehensive Monograph examines all peripheral and central mechanisms of regulating the secretion of milk from the lactating breast. The author reviews the complete female breast development, starting with the early childhood, up to pregnancy and lactation. Structural and ultrastructural data on the alveolar-ductal system, together with details of breast innervation, are used to investigate the physiological process of lactation. Readers will appreciate the special focus on reflexes, both in the child and the mother, that help to regulate maternal milk production and secretion. Following this, the author sheds a light on the composition and dynamics of milk components during the different periods of lactation. The final section of this volume focusses on practical aspects of modern breastfeeding, like the use of breast pumps or galactogogues, to influence the productivity of milk production. These fundamental principles and structural details will be particularly useful for physiologists and clinicians working in gynecology and pediatrics.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    Pages: VIII, 254 p. 87 illus. , online resource.
    Edition: 1st ed. 2021.
    ISBN: 9783030663643
    DDC: 612
    Language: English
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