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  • 1
    Unknown
    Proceedings of the Tenth World Conference on Earthquake Engineering : 19-24 July 1992, Madrid, Spain (1992-)
    Rotterdam [u.a.] : Balkema
    Details Availability
    Call number: M 92.0634
    ISBN: 9054100605
    Language: English
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 2
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    Climatología aeronáutica de España (1948-)
    Madrid : Secc
    Details Availability
    Call number: PIK N 456-17-90913
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 536 Seiten
    Series Statement: Ministerio de Transportes Turismo Y Comunicaciones : Publicación Serie A 114
    Parallel Title: 1,1=6; 2,1=13 von Publicaciones / D / Ministerio del Aire, Subsecretaria de Aviación Civil, Servicio Meteorológico Nacional
    Language: Spanish
    Location: A 18 - must be ordered
    Branch Library: PIK Library
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  • 3
    Journal available for loan
    Journal available for loan
    Geo-Alp : Veröffentlichungen des Instituts für Geologie und Paläontologie der Universität Innsbruck und des Naturmuseums Südtirol, Museo Scienze Naturali Alto Adige, Bozen, Bolzano : a yearly journal devoted to Alpine geology (2007-)
    Bozen : Naturmuseum Südtirol ; 1.2007 -
    Details Availability
    Call number: Z 06.0500
    Type of Medium: Journal available for loan
    Pages: 30 cm
    ISSN: 1824-7741
    URL: http://www.naturmuseum.it/de/geo-alp_de.asp
    Former Title: Vorgänger Geologisch-paläontologische Mitteilungen, Innsbruck
    Language: German , English
    Note: Ersch. unregelmäßig , Beiträge teilweise in Englisch
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 4
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    Hans Stille (1876-1966) geologist (1978-)
    Stuttgart : Schweizerbart Science Publishers ; Volume 1, number 1 (1978)-
    Details Availability
    Call number: M 18.91571
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 134 Seiten
    ISSN: 2363-7196
    Series Statement: Global tectonics and metallogeny : special issue Vol. 10/2-4
    Classification:
    Tectonics
    Parallel Title: Erscheint auch als Global tectonics and metallogeny
    Language: English
    Location: Upper compact magazine
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 5
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    Atmospheric dust and aerosol study : second status report (1977-)
    Garmisch-Partenkirchen : Institut für atmosphärische Umweltforschung der Fraunhofer- Gesellschaft
    Details Availability
    Call number: MOP 44829 / Mitte
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 25 S. , graph. Darst.
    Language: English
    Location: MOP - must be ordered
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 6
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    Incerto (2007-)
    London : Penguin Books
    Details Availability
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    ISBN: 9780141985206
    Language: English
    Branch Library: RIFS Library
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  • 7
    Monograph non-lending collection
    Monograph non-lending collection
    The yearbook of polar law (2009-)
    Leiden : Nijhoff ; 1.2009 -
    Details Availability
    Call number: IASS 17.92082
    Type of Medium: Monograph non-lending collection
    ISSN: 1876-8814
    Language: English
    Branch Library: RIFS Library
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  • 8
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    2017 : Helmholtz Research for Grand Challenges (2006-)
    Bonn : Helmholtz Association ; 2006-
    Associated volumes
    Details
    Call number: 3/S 07.0034(2017)
    In: Annual report
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 51 Seiten
    ISSN: 1865-6439 , 1865-6447
    URL: Volltext  (kostenfrei)
    Parallel Title: Annual report ... / Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres
    Language: English
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  • 9
    Journal available for loan
    Journal available for loan
    FinanzArchiv : public finance analysis (1884-)
    Tübingen : Mohr Siebeck ; 1.1884 - 48.1931; N.F. 1.1932/33 - 10.1943/44(1945),3; 11.1948/49(1949) -
    Details
    Call number: ZS 22.95039
    Type of Medium: Journal available for loan
    Pages: Online-Ressource
    ISSN: 1614-0974 , 0015-2218 , 0015-2218
    URL: https://www.jstor.org/journal/finaarch
    URL: http://www.bibliothek.uni-regensburg.de/ezeit/?2143985
    URL: https://www.mohrsiebeck.com/zeitschrift/finanzarchiv-fa
    URL: https://www.jstor.org/journal/finaarch
    Language: German , English
    Note: N.F. entfällt ab 57.2000. - Volltext auch als Teil einer Datenbank verfügbar , Ersch. ab 2000 in engl. Sprache mit dt. Hauptsacht.
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  • 10
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    Quake : part two, the aftermath (1900-)
    [Edgecumbe, N.Z.] : A. Muller
    Details Availability
    Call number: M 15.89146
    Description / Table of Contents: An account of the results of the 2 March 1987 earthquake in the eastern Bay of Plenty and the aftermath's effects on the people and places on the Rangitaiki Plains
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 223 S., , Ill.
    Language: English
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 11
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    Drivers of diversity and community structure of bees in an agroecological region of Zimbabwe (2021)
    In:  Ecology and Evolution
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Worldwide bees provide an important ecosystem service of plant pollination. Climate change and land-use changes are among drivers threatening bee survival with mounting evidence of species decline and extinction. In developing countries, rural areas constitute a significant proportion of the country's land, but information is lacking on how different habitat types and weather patterns in these areas influence bee populations. This study investigated how weather variables and habitat-related factors influence the abundance, diversity, and distribution of bees across seasons in a farming rural area of Zimbabwe. Bees were systematically sampled in five habitat types (natural woodlots, pastures, homesteads, fields, and gardens) recording ground cover, grass height, flower abundance and types, tree abundance and recorded elevation, temperature, light intensity, wind speed, wind direction, and humidity. Zero-inflated models, censored regression models, and PCAs were used to understand the influence of explanatory variables on bee community composition, abundance, and diversity. Bee abundance was positively influenced by the number of plant species in flower (p 〈 .0001). Bee abundance increased with increasing temperatures up to 28.5°C, but beyond this, temperature was negatively associated with bee abundance. Increasing wind speeds marginally decreased probability of finding bees. Bee diversity was highest in fields, homesteads, and natural woodlots compared with other habitats, and the contributions of the genus Apis were disproportionately high across all habitats. The genus Megachile was mostly associated with homesteads, while Nomia was associated with grasslands. Synthesis and applications. Our study suggests that some bee species could become more proliferous in certain habitats, thus compromising diversity and consequently ecosystem services. These results highlight the importance of setting aside bee-friendly habitats that can be refuge sites for species susceptible to land-use changes.
    Language: English
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  • 12
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    Effects of climate change on combined labour productivity and supply: an empirical, multi-model study (2021)
    In:  The Lancet Planetary Health
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Background Although effects on labour is one of the most tangible and attributable climate impact, our quantification of these effects is insufficient and based on weak methodologies. Partly, this gap is due to the inability to resolve different impact channels, such as changes in time allocation (labour supply) and slowdown of work (labour productivity). Explicitly resolving those in a multi-model inter-comparison framework can help to improve estimates of the effects of climate change on labour effectiveness. Methods In this empirical, multi-model study, we used a large collection of micro-survey data aggregated to subnational regions across the world to estimate new, robust global and regional temperature and wet-bulb globe temperature exposure-response functions (ERFs) for labour supply. We then assessed the uncertainty in existing labour productivity response functions and derived an augmented mean function. Finally, we combined these two dimensions of labour into a single compound metric (effective labour effects). This combined measure allowed us to estimate the effect of future climate change on both the number of hours worked and on the productivity of workers during their working hours under 1·5°C, 2·0°C, and 3·0°C of global warming. We separately analysed low-exposure (indoors or outdoors in the shade) and high-exposure (outdoor in the sun) sectors. Findings We found differentiated empirical regional and sectoral ERF's for labour supply. Current climate conditions already negatively affect labour effectiveness, particularly in tropical countries. Future climate change will reduce global total labour in the low-exposure sectors by 18 percentage points (range −48·8 to 5·3) under a scenario of 3·0°C warming (24·8 percentage points in the high-exposure sectors). The reductions will be 25·9 percentage points (–48·8 to 2·7) in Africa, 18·6 percentage points (–33·6 to 5·3) in Asia, and 10·4 percentage points (–35·0 to 2·6) in the Americas in the low-exposure sectors. These regional effects are projected to be substantially higher for labour outdoors in full sunlight compared with indoors (or outdoors in the shade) with the average reductions in total labour projected to be 32·8 percentage points (–66·3 to 1·6) in Africa, 25·0 percentage points (–66·3 to 7·0) in Asia, and 16·7 percentage points (–45·5 to 4·4) in the Americas. Interpretation Both labour supply and productivity are projected to decrease under future climate change in most parts of the world, and particularly in tropical regions. Parts of sub-Saharan Africa, south Asia, and southeast Asia are at highest risk under future warming scenarios. The heterogeneous regional response functions suggest that it is necessary to move away from one-size-fits-all response functions to investigate the climate effect on labour. Our findings imply income and distributional consequences in terms of increased inequality and poverty, especially in low-income countries, where the labour effects are projected to be high.
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  • 13
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    WFDE5 over land merged with ERA5 over the ocean (W5E5 v2.0) (2021)
    ISIMIP Repository
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The W5E5 dataset was compiled to support the bias adjustment of climate input data for the impact assessments carried out in phase 3b of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b). Version 2.0 of the W5E5 dataset covers the entire globe at 0.5° horizontal and daily temporal resolution from 1979 to 2019. Data sources of W5E5 are version 2.0 of WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA5 data (WFDE5; Weedon et al., 2014; Cucchi et al., 2020), ERA5 reanalysis data (Hersbach et al., 2020), and precipitation data from version 2.3 of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP; Adler et al., 2003). Variables (with short names and units in brackets) included in the W5E5 dataset are Near Surface Relative Humidity (hurs, %), Near Surface Specific Humidity (huss, kg kg-1), Precipitation (pr, kg m-2 s-1), Snowfall Flux (prsn, kg m-2 s-1), Surface Air Pressure (ps, Pa), Sea Level Pressure (psl, Pa), Surface Downwelling Longwave Radiation (rlds, W m-2), Surface Downwelling Shortwave Radiation (rsds, W m-2), Near Surface Wind Speed (sfcWind, m s-1), Near-Surface Air Temperature (tas, K), Daily Maximum Near Surface Air Temperature (tasmax, K), Daily Minimum Near Surface Air Temperature (tasmin, K), Surface Altitude (orog, m), and WFDE5-ERA5 Mask (mask, 1).
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  • 14
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    Hot, wet, and deserted: Climate Change and Internal Displacement in India, Peru, and Tanzania (2021)
    Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC)
    In:  Background Paper
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Language: English
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  • 15
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    Unprecedented threats to cities from multi-century sea level rise (2021)
    In:  Environmental Research Letters
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: A portion of human-caused carbon dioxide emissions will stay in the atmosphere for hundreds of years, raising temperatures and sea levels globally. Most nations' emissions-reduction policies and actions do not seem to reflect this long-term threat, as collectively they point toward widespread permanent inundation of many developed areas. Using state-of-the-art new global elevation and population data, we show here that, under high emissions scenarios leading to 4 ∘C warming and a median projected 8.9 m of global mean sea level rise within a roughly 200- to 2000-year envelope, at least 50 major cities, mostly in Asia, would need to defend against globally unprecedented levels of exposure, if feasible, or face partial to near-total extant area losses. Nationally, China, India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, global leaders in recent coal plant construction, have the largest contemporary populations occupying land below projected high tide lines, alongside Bangladesh. We employ this population-based metric as a rough index for the potential exposure of the largely immovable built environment embodying cultures and economies as they exist today. Based on median sea level projections, at least one large nation on every continent but Australia and Antarctica would face exceptionally high exposure: land home to at least one-tenth and up to two-thirds of current population falling below tideline. Many small island nations are threatened with near-total loss. The high tide line could encroach above land occupied by as much as 15% of the current global population (about one billion people). By contrast, meeting the most ambitious goals of the Paris Climate Agreement will likely reduce exposure by roughly half and may avoid globally unprecedented defense requirements for any coastal megacity exceeding a contemporary population of 10 million.
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  • 16
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    Future climate change significantly alters interannual wheat yield variability over half of harvested areas (2021)
    In:  Environmental Research Letters
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Climate change affects the spatial and temporal distribution of crop yields, which can critically impair food security across scales. A number of previous studies have assessed the impact of climate change on mean crop yield and future food availability, but much less is known about potential future changes in interannual yield variability. Here, we evaluate future changes in relative interannual global wheat yield variability (the coefficient of variation; CV) at 0.25° spatial resolution for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A multi-model ensemble of crop model emulators based on global process-based models is used to evaluate responses to changes in temperature, precipitation, and CO2. The results indicate that over 60% of harvested areas could experience significant changes in interannual yield variability under a high-emission scenario by the end of the 21st century (2066–2095). 31% and 44% of harvested areas are projected to undergo significant reductions of relative yield variability under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In turn, wheat yield is projected to become more unstable across 23% (RCP4.5) and 18% (RCP8.5) of global harvested areas—mostly in hot or low fertilizer input regions, including some of the major breadbasket countries. The major driver of increasing yield CV change is the increase in yield standard deviation, whereas declining yield CV is mostly caused by stronger increases in mean yield than in the standard deviation. Changes in temperature are the dominant cause of change in wheat yield CVs, having a greater influence than changes in precipitation in 53% and 72% of global harvested areas by the end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This research highlights the potential challenges posed by increased yield variability and the need for tailored regional adaptation strategies.
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  • 17
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    Climate-induced hysteresis of the tropical forest in a fire-enabled Earth system model (2021)
    In:  European Physical Journal - Special Topics
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Tropical rainforests are recognized as one of the terrestrialtipping elements which could have profound impacts on the global cli-mate, once their vegetation has transitioned into savanna or grasslandstates. While several studies investigated the savannization of, e.g., theAmazon rainforest, few studies considered the influence of fire. Fire isexpected to potentially shift the savanna-forest boundary and henceimpact the dynamical equilibrium between these two possible vegeta-tion states under changing climate. To investigate the climate-inducedhysteresis in pan-tropical forests and the impact of fire under future cli-mate conditions, we employed the Earth system model CM2Mc, whichis biophysically coupled to the fire-enabled state-of-the-art dynamicglobal vegetation model LPJmL. We conducted several simulation ex-periments where atmospheric CO2concentrations increased (impactphase) and decreased from the new state (recovery phase), each withand without enabling wildfires. We find a hysteresis of the biomassand vegetation cover in tropical forest systems, with a strong regionalheterogeneity. After biomass loss along increasing atmospheric CO2concentrations and accompanied mean surface temperature increase ofabout 4°C (impact phase), the system does not recover completely intoits original state on its return path, even though atmospheric CO2concentrations return to their original state. While not detecting large-scale tipping points, our results show a climate-induced hysteresis intropical forest and lagged responses in forest recovery after the climatehas returned to its original state. Wildfires slightly widen the climate-induced hysteresis in tropical forests and lead to a lagged response inforest recovery by ca. 30 years.
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  • 18
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    A Pronounced Spike in Ocean Productivity Triggered by the Chicxulub Impact (2021)
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: There is increasing evidence linking the mass-extinction event at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary to an asteroid impact near Chicxulub, Mexico. Here we use model simulations to explore the combined effect of sulfate aerosols, carbon dioxide and dust from the impact on the oceans and the marine biosphere in the immediate aftermath of the impact. We find a strong temperature decrease, a brief algal bloom caused by nutrients from both the deep ocean and the projectile, and moderate surface ocean acidification. Comparing the modeled longer-term post-impact warming and changes in carbon isotopes with empirical evidence points to a substantial release of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere. Overall, our results shed light on the decades to centuries after the Chicxulub impact which are difficult to resolve with proxy data.
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  • 19
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    Extensional equality preservation and verified generic programming (2021)
    In:  Journal of Functional Programming
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: In verified generic programming, one cannot exploit the structure of concrete data types but has to rely on well chosen sets of specifications or abstract data types (ADTs). Functors and monads are at the core of many applications of functional programming. This raises the question of what useful ADTs for verified functors and monads could look like. The functorial map of many important monads preserves extensional equality. For instance, if f , g : A → B are extensionally equal, that is, ∀x ∈ A, f x = g x, then map f : List A → List B and map g are also extensionally equal. This suggests that preservation of extensional equality could be a useful principle in verified generic programming. We explore this possibility with a minimalist approach: we deal with (the lack of) extensional equality in Martin-Löf’s intensional type theories without extending the theories or using full-fledged setoids. Perhaps surprisingly, this minimal approach turns out to be extremely useful. It allows one to derive simple generic proofs of monadic laws but also verified, generic results in dynamical systems and control theory. In turn, these results avoid tedious code duplication and ad- hoc proofs. Thus, our work is a contribution towards pragmatic, verified generic programming.
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  • 20
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    Locked Houses, Fallow Lands: Climate Change and Migration in Uttarakhand, India (2021)
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and The Energy and Resources Institute (Teri)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
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  • 21
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    Output data for the GMD publication gmd-2020-436 (2021)
    CERN / Zenodo
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Output data used in the GMD publication: CM2Mc-LPJmL v1.0: Biophysical coupling of a process-based dynamic vegetation model with managed land to a general circulation model, Drüke et al. (https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-436)
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  • 22
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    Long-term impacts of tropical cyclones and fluvial floods on economic growth – Empirical evidence on transmission channels at different levels of development (2021)
    In:  World Development
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: While the short-term economic impacts of extreme weather events are well documented, little is known about their impacts and transmission channels on economic growth in the long run. Using panel data regressions and national shares of people exposed to tropical cyclones and fluvial floods as exogenous predictors, we find output growth losses from severe tropical cyclones and fluvial floods to accumulate to −6.5% and −5.0% over 15 years, respectively. We further observe a strongly non-linear increase of these losses with disaster intensity. To understand how the observed impacts depend on the countries’ development level, we implement a country-specific regression framework. While we find evidence that higher development can prevent economic growth losses from fluvial floods, this is not the case for tropical cyclones. Further, we systematically study the economic and non-economic transmission channels through which these events impact on economic growth in the long run. We find that rising household consumption and government expenditure are the main growth-loss mitigating channels, whereas rising investment is the main growth-loss amplifying channel in the period 1971–2010.
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  • 23
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    Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming (2021)
    In:  Earth System Dynamics
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: There exists a range of subsystems in the climate system exhibiting threshold behaviour which could be triggered under global warming within this century resulting in severe consequences for biosphere and human societies. While their individual tipping thresholds are fairly well understood, it is of yet unclear how their interactions might impact the overall stability of the Earth's climate system. This cannot be studied yet with state-of-the-art Earth system models due to computational constraints as well as missing and uncertain process representations of some tipping elements. Here, we explicitly study the effects of known physical interactions between the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the El-Nino Southern Oscillation and the Amazon rainforest using a conceptual network approach. We analyse the risk of domino effects being triggered by each of the individual tipping elements under global warming in equilibrium experiments, propagating uncertainties in critical temperature thresholds and interaction strengths via a Monte-Carlo approach. Overall, we find that the interactions tend to destabilise the network. Furthermore, our analysis reveals the qualitative role of each of the five tipping elements showing that the polar ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica are oftentimes the initiators of tipping cascades, while the AMOC acts as a mediator, transmitting cascades. This implies that the ice sheets, which are already at risk of transgressing their temperature thresholds within the Paris range of 1.5 to 2 °C, are of particular importance for the stability of the climate system as a whole.
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  • 24
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    Validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations (2021)
    In:  Environmental Research Letters
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Future flood and drought risks have been predicted to transition from moderate to high levels at global warmings of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, respectively. However, these results were obtained by approximating the equilibrium climate using transient simulations with steadily warming. This approach was recently criticised due to the warmer global land temperature and higher mean precipitation intensities of the transient climate in comparison with the equilibrium climate. Therefore, it is unclear whether floods and droughts projected under a transient climate can be systematically substituted for those occurring in an equilibrated climate. Here, by employing a large ensemble of global hydrological models (HMs) forced by global climate models, we assess the validity of estimating flood and drought characteristics under equilibrium climates from transient simulations. Differences in flood characteristics under transient and equilibrium climates could be largely ascribed to natural variability, indicating that the floods derived from a transient climate reasonably approximate the floods expected in an equally warm, equilibrated climate. By contrast, significant differences in drought intensity between transient and equilibrium climates were detected over a larger global land area than expected from natural variability. Despite the large differences among HMs in representing the low streamflow regime, we found that the drought intensities occurring under a transient climate may not validly represent the intensities in an equally warm equilibrated climate for approximately 6.7% of the global land area.
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  • 25
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    Anticipation-induced social tipping: can the environment be stabilised by social dynamics? (2021)
    In:  European Physical Journal - Special Topics
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: In the past decades, human activities caused global Earth system changes, e.g., climate change or biodiversity loss. Simultaneously, these associated impacts have increased environmental awareness within societies across the globe, thereby leading to dynamical feedbacks between the social and natural Earth system. Contemporary modelling attempts of Earth system dynamics rarely incorporate such co-evolutions and interactions are mostly studied unidirectionally through direct or remembered past impacts. Acknowledging that societies have the additional capability for foresight, this work proposes a conceptual feedback model of socio-ecological co-evolution with the specific construct of anticipation acting as a mediator between the social and natural system. Our model reproduces results from previous sociological threshold models with bistability if one assumes a static environment. Once the environment changes in response to societal behaviour, the system instead converges towards a globally stable, but not necessarily desired, attractor. Ultimately, we show that anticipation of future ecological states then leads to metastability of the system where desired states can persist for a long time. We thereby demonstrate that foresight and anticipation form an important mechanism which, once its time horizon becomes large enough, fosters social tipping towards behaviour that can stabilise the environment and prevents potential socio-ecological collapse.
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    Optimal carbon taxation and horizontal equity: A welfare-theoretic approach with application to German household data (2021)
    Universität Potsdam
    In:  CEPA Discussion Paper
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: We develop a model of optimal carbon taxation and redistribution taking into account horizontal equity concerns by considering heterogeneous energy efficiencies. By deriving first- and second-best rules for policy instruments including carbon taxes, transfers and energy subsidies, we then investigate analytically how horizontal equity is considered in the social welfare maximizing tax structure. We calibrate the model to German household data and a 30 percent emission reduction goal. Our results show that energy-intensive households should receive more redistributive resources than energy-efficient households if and only if social inequality aversion is sufficiently high. We further find that redistribution of carbon tax revenue via household-specific transfers is the first-best policy. Equal per-capita transfers do not suffer from informational problems, but increase mitigation costs by around 15 percent compared to the first- best for unity inequality aversion. Adding renewable energy subsidies or non-linear energy subsidies, reduces mitigation costs further without relying on observability of households’ energy efficiency.
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    Carbon pricing could be the Biden administration's climate tool (2021)
    Capitol Hill Publishing Group
    In:  The Hill | Opinion : Energy & Evironment
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
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    UNFCCC country-submitted greenhouse gas emissions data until 2021-06-28 (2021)
    CERN / Zenodo
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Dataset containing all greenhouse gas emissions data submitted by countries under climate change convention (including CRF data) as published by the UNFCCC secretariat at 2021-06-28.
    Language: English
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    Wave-like global economic ripple response to Hurricane Sandy (2021)
    In:  Environmental Research Letters
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Tropical cyclones range among the costliest disasters on Earth. Their economic repercussions along the supply and trade network also affect remote economies that are not directly affected. We here simulate possible global repercussions on consumption for the example case of Hurricane Sandy in the US (2012) using the shock-propagation model Acclimate. The modeled shock yields a global three-phase ripple: an initial production demand reduction and associated consumption price decrease, followed by a supply shortage with increasing prices, and finally a recovery phase. Regions with strong trade relations to the US experience strong magnitudes of the ripple. A dominating demand reduction or supply shortage leads to overall consumption gains or losses of a region, respectively. While finding these repercussions in historic data is challenging due to strong volatility of economic interactions, numerical models like ours can help to identify them by approaching the problem from an exploratory angle, isolating the effect of interest. For this, our model simulates the economic interactions of over 7000 regional economic sectors, interlinked through about 1.8 million trade relations. Under global warming, the wave-like structures of the economic response to major hurricanes like the one simulated here are likely to intensify and potentially overlap with other weather extremes.
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    Global bilateral migration projections accounting for diasporas, transit and return flows, and poverty constraints (2021)
    In:  Demographic Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Background: Anticipating changes in international migration patterns is useful for demographic studies and for designing policies that support the well-being of those involved. Existing forecasting methods do not account for a number of stylized facts that emerge from large-scale migration observations and theories: existing migrant communities – diasporas – act to lower migration costs and thereby provide a mechanism of self-amplification; return migration and transit migration are important components of global migration flows; and poverty constrains emigration. Objective: Here we present hindcasts and future projections of international migration that explicitly account for these nonlinear features. Methods: We develop a dynamic model that simulates migration flows by origin, destination, and place of birth. We calibrate the model using recently constructed global datasets of bilateral migration. Results: We show that the model reproduces past patterns and trends well based only on initial migrant stocks and changes in national incomes. We then project migration flows under future scenarios of global socioeconomic development. Conclusions: Different assumptions about income levels and between-country inequality lead to markedly different migration trajectories, with migration flows either converging towards net zero if incomes in presently poor countries catch up with the rest of the world; or remaining high or even rising throughout the 21st century if economic development is slower and more unequal. Importantly, diasporas induce significant inertia and sizable return migration flows. Contribution: Our simulation model provides a versatile tool for assessing the impacts of different socioeconomic futures on international migration, accounting for important nonlinearities in migration drivers and flows.
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    Quantifying sustainable intensification of agriculture: the contribution of metrics and modelling (2021)
    In:  Ecological Indicators
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Sustainable intensification (SI) of agriculture is a promising strategy for boosting the capacity of the agricultural sector to meet the growing demands for food and non-food products and services in a sustainable manner. Assessing and quantifying the options for SI remains a challenge due to its multiple dimensions and potential associated trade-offs. We contribute to overcoming this challenge by proposing an approach for the ex-ante evaluation of SI options and trade-offs to facilitate decision making in relation to SI. This approach is based on the utilization of a newly developed SI metrics framework (SIMeF) combined with agricultural systems modelling. We present SIMeF and its operationalization approach with modelling and evaluate the approach’s feasibility by assessing to what extent the SIMeF metrics can be quantified by representative agricultural systems models. SIMeF is based on the integration of academic and policy indicator frameworks, expert opinions, as well as the Sustainable Development Goals. Structured along seven SI domains and consisting of 37 themes, 142 sub-themes and 1128 metrics, it offers a holistic, generic, and policy-relevant dashboard for selecting the SI metrics to be quantified for the assessment of SI options in diverse contexts. The use of SIMeF with agricultural systems modelling allows the ex-ante assessment of SI options with respect to their productivity, resource use efficiency, environmental sustainability and, to a large extent, economic sustainability. However, we identify limitations to the use of modelling to represent several SI aspects related to social sustainability, certain ecological functions, the multi-functionality of agriculture, the management of losses and waste, and security and resilience. We suggest advancements in agricultural systems models and greater interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary integration to improve the ability to quantify SI metrics and to assess trade-offs across the various dimensions of SI.
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    The energy and carbon inequality corridor for a 1.5 °C compatible and just Europe (2021)
    In:  Environmental Research Letters
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The call for a decent life for all within planetary limits poses a dual challenge: Provide all people with the essential resources needed to live well and, collectively, not exceed the source and sink capacity of the biosphere to sustain human societies. We examine the corridor of possible distributions of household energy and carbon footprints that satisfy both minimum energy use for a decent life and available energy supply compatible with the 1.5°C target in 2050. We estimated household energy and carbon footprints for expenditure deciles for 28 European countries in 2015 by combining data from national household budget surveys with the Environmentally-Extended Multi-Regional Input-Output model EXIOBASE. We found a top-to-bottom decile ratio (90:10) of 7.2 for expenditure, 3.1 for net energy and 2.6 for carbon. The lower inequality of energy and carbon footprints is largely attributable to inefficient energy and heating technologies in the lower deciles (mostly Eastern Europe). Adopting best technology across Europe would save 11 EJ of net energy annually, but increase environmental footprint inequality. With such inequality, both targets can only be met through the use of CCS, large efficiency improvements, and an extremely low minimum final energy use of 28 GJ per adult equivalent. Assuming a more realistic minimum energy use of about 55 GJ/ae and no CCS deployment, the 1.5°C target can only be achieved at near full equality. We conclude that achieving both stated goals is an immense and widely underestimated challenge, the successful management of which requires far greater room for maneuver in monetary and fiscal terms than is reflected in the current European political discourse.
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    Integrate health into decision-making to foster climate action (2021)
    In:  Environmental Research Letters
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The COVID-19 pandemic reveals that societies place a high value on healthy lives. Leveraging this momentum to establish a more central role for human health in the policy process will provide further impetus to a sustainable transformation of energy and food systems.
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    Modelling nonlinear dynamics of interacting tipping elements on complex networks: the PyCascades package (2021)
    In:  European Physical Journal - Special Topics
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Language: English
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    Suppression of noise-induced critical transitions: a linear augmentation method (2021)
    In:  European Physical Journal - Special Topics
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: In stochastic complex systems, some sudden critical transitions (CTs) from one desirable state to another contrasting one can take place because of noise, which may even lead to catastrophic consequences. To keep a certain system in one desirable state of performance, methods that suppress these catastrophic CTs in the presence of noise need to be developed. In this paper, the ability of an external linear augmentation method to suppress Gaussian white noise-induced CTs away from a desirable state is investigated from a new perspective. This control is designed in such a way that, as a noise-induced CT is impending, the desirable state of performance in a stochastic complex system can be stabilized using a specific type of coupling with a linear dynamical system. Then, the contrasting state is annihilated with increasing coupling strength. Taking a bi-stable system with one CT (from the desirable state to the undesirable one) and a tri-stable system with two CTs (from the desirable state to the sub-desirable one and from the sub-desirable state to the undesirable one) as the prototype class of real complex systems, the potential of our technique is demonstrated.
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    Large potential for crop production adaptation depends on available future varieties (2021)
    In:  Global Change Biology
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Climate change affects global agricultural production and threatens food security. Faster phenological development of crops due to climate warming is one of the main drivers for potential future yield reductions. To counter the effect of faster maturity, adapted varieties would require more heat units to regain the previous growing period length. In this study, we investigate the effects of variety adaptation on global caloric production under four different future climate change scenarios for maize, rice, soybean, and wheat. Thereby, we empirically identify areas that could require new varieties and areas where variety adaptation could be achieved by shifting existing varieties into new regions. The study uses an ensemble of seven global gridded crop models and five CMIP6 climate models. We found that 39% (SSP5-8.5) of global cropland could require new crop varieties to avoid yield loss from climate change by the end of the century. At low levels of warming (SSP1-2.6), 85% of currently cultivated land can draw from existing varieties to shift within an agro-ecological zone for adaptation. The assumptions on available varieties for adaptation have major impacts on the effectiveness of variety adaptation, which could more than half in SSP5-8.5. The results highlight that region-specific breeding efforts are required to allow for a successful adaptation to climate change.
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    Modeling urban morphology by unifying Diffusion-Limited Aggregation and Stochastic Gravitation (2021)
    In:  Findings
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: More than 30 years ago, Diffusion-Limited Aggregation (DLA) has been studied as mechanism to generate structures sharing similarities with real-world cities. Recently, a stochastic gravitation model (SGM) has been proposed for the same purpose but representing a completely different mechanism. Both approaches have advantages and disadvantages, while e.g. the dendrites emerging via DLA are visually very different from real-world cities, the SGM does not preserve undeveloped locations close to the city center. Here we propose a unification of both mechanisms, i.e. a particle moves randomly and turns into an urban site with a probability that depends on the proximity to already developed sites. We study the cluster size distributions of the structures generated by both models and find that SGM generates more balanced distributions. We also propose a way to assess to which extent the largest cluster is a primate city and find that in both models, beyond certain parameter value, the size of the largest cluster becomes inconsistent with being drawn from the same distribution of remaining clusters.
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    NDCmitiQ v1.0.0: a tool to quantify and analyse greenhouse gas mitigation targets (2021)
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Parties to the Paris Agreement (PA, 2015) outline their planned contributions towards achieving the PA temperature goal to “hold […] the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 ∘C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 ∘C” (Article 2.1.a, PA) in their nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Most NDCs include targets to mitigate national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which need quantifications to assess i.a. whether the current NDCs collectively put us on track to reach the PA temperature goals or the gap in ambition to do so. We implemented the new open-source tool “NDCmitiQ” to quantify GHG mitigation targets defined in the NDCs for all countries with quantifiable targets on a disaggregated level and to create corresponding national and global emissions pathways. In light of the 5-year update cycle of NDCs and the global stocktake, the quantification of NDCs is an ongoing task for which NDCmitiQ can be used, as calculations can easily be updated upon submission of new NDCs. In this paper, we describe the methodologies behind NDCmitiQ and quantification challenges we encountered by addressing a wide range of aspects, including target types and the input data from within NDCs; external time series of national emissions, population, and GDP; uniform approach vs. country specifics; share of national emissions covered by NDCs; how to deal with the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) component and the conditionality of pledges; and establishing pathways from single-year targets. For use in NDCmitiQ, we furthermore construct an emissions data set from the baseline emissions provided in the NDCs. Example use cases show how the tool can help to analyse targets on a national, regional, or global scale and to quantify uncertainties caused by a lack of clarity in the NDCs. Results confirm that the conditionality of targets and assumptions about economic growth dominate uncertainty in mitigated emissions on a global scale, which are estimated as 48.9–56.1 Gt CO2 eq. AR4 for 2030 (10th/90th percentiles, median: 51.8 Gt CO2 eq. AR4; excluding LULUCF and bunker fuels; submissions until 17 April 2020 and excluding the USA). We estimate that 77 % of global 2017 emissions were emitted from sectors and gases covered by these NDCs. Addressing all updated NDCs submitted by 31 December 2020 results in an estimated 45.6–54.1 Gt CO2 eq. AR4 (median: 49.6 Gt CO2 eq. AR4, now including the USA again) and increased coverage.
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    A Path to Zero (2021)
    In:  Finance and Development
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
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    Discretionary Intervention Destabilizes the EU Emissions Trading System: Evidence and Recommendations for a Rule-Based Cap Adjustment (2021)
    In:  CESifo Forum
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The EU is currently preparing a major overhaul of its climate policy framework to deliver on the Green Deal’s new climate targets of a 55 percent cut in greenhouse gas (GHG) emis-sions relative to 1990 by 2030 and GHG neutrality by 2050. Ex-tending and strengthening the role of carbon pricing, imple-mented through the EU Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS), will play an important role in this framework. Accordingly, the design and governance of the EU-ETS will be ever more crucial. In this article, we focus both on the 2018 EU-ETS re-form as the first step on a slippery slope of increasing dis-cretionary intervention and on the upcoming reform risks reinforcing this trend. In their seminal work, Kydland and Prescott (1977) caution against such interventions, because of their ability to destabilize the market and engender recur-ring interventions. This limits the capacity of policymakers to credibly commit to long-term targets, which undermines the dynamic efficiency of intertemporal emissions trading sys-tems like the EU-ETS. To counteract this trend, we provide recommendations for rule-based adjustments to the EU-ETS.
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    Evaluating the grassland NPP dynamics in response to climate change in Tanzania (2021)
    In:  Ecological Indicators
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Livestock is important for livelihoods of millions of people across the world and yet climate change risk and impacts assessments are predominantly on cropping systems. Climate change has significant impacts on Net Primary Production (NPP) which is a grassland dynamics indicator. This study aimed to analyze the spatio-temporal changes of NPP under climate scenario RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in the grassland of Tanzania by 2050 and link this to potential for key livestock species. To this end, a regression model to estimate NPP was developed based on temperature (T), precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (ET) during the period 2001–2019. NPP fluctuation maps under future scenarios were produced as difference maps of the current (2009–2019) and future (2050). The vulnerable areas whose NPP is mostly likely to get affected by climate change in 2050 were identified. The number of livestock units in grasslands was estimated according to NPP in grasslands of Tanzania at the Provincial levels. The results indicate the mean temperature and evapotranspiration are projected to increase under both emission scenarios while precipitation will decrease. NPP is significantly positively correlated with Tmax and ET and projected increases in these variables will be beneficial to NPP under climate change. Increases of 17% in 2050 under RCP8.5 scenario are projected, with the southern parts of the country projected to have the largest increase in NPP. The southwest areas showed a decreasing trend in mean NPP of 27.95% (RCP2.6) and 13.43% (RCP8.5). The highest decrease would occur in the RCP2.6 scenario in Ruvuma Province, by contrast, the mean NPP value in the western, eastern, and central parts would increase in 2050 under both Scenarios, the largest increase would observe in Kilimanjaro, Dar-Es-Salaam and Dodoma Provinces. It was found that the number of grazing livestock such as cattle, sheep, and goats will increase in the Tanzania grasslands under both climate scenarios. As the grassland ecosystems under intensive exploitation are fragile ecosystems, a combination of improving grassland productivity and grassland conservation under environmental pressures such as climate change should be considered for sustainable grassland management.
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    Carbon Pricing and Revenue Recycling: An Overview of Vertical and Horizontal Equity Effects for Germany (2021)
    In:  CESifo Forum
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
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    Strong increase of racist tweets outside of climate comfort zone in Europe (2021)
    In:  Environmental Research Letters
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Ambient temperature has been identified as a potential cause for human conflict in a variety of studies. Conflict is no longer limited to the physical space but exists in the form of hate and discrimination on social media. Here we provide evidence that the amount of racist and xenophobic content posted to the social media platform Twitter is nonlinearly influenced by temperature. Exploiting the linguistic plurality of Europe, we statistically analyse daily temperature data and more than 10 million racist tweets from six different countries spanning several climate zones for the years 2012-2018. Using a fixed-effects panel regression model that utilizes exogenous variation in local weather and controls for unobserved omitted variables, we identify the effect of population-weighted daily average temperature on the daily number of racist tweets and likes. We find a quasi-quadratic temperature response of racist tweets that is inversely proportional to the temperature distribution. Fewest racist tweets and likes are found for daily average temperatures between 5°C and 11°C, i.e. temperatures that are frequently experienced. Temperatures warmer or colder than that are associated with steep, nonlinear increases. Analyses at the country-level confirm this climate comfort zone of 5°C to 11°C across different European climatic zones. In the Southern European countries this is colder than the most frequently experienced temperatures, pointing to possible limits of adaptation. Within the next 30 years, the number of days outside this climate comfort zone, weighted by the identified temperature-racist-tweet response curve, will increase across parts of Europe, indicating that rising temperatures could aggravate xenophobia and racism in social media.
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    The microdynamics of spatial polarization: A model and an application to survey data from Ukraine (2021)
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Although spatial polarization of attitudes is extremely common around the world, we understand little about the mechanisms through which polarization on divisive issues rises and falls over time. We develop a theory that explains how political shocks can have different effects in different regions of a country depending upon local dynamics generated by the preexisting spatial distribution of attitudes and discussion networks. Where opinions were previously divided, attitudinal diversity is likely to persist after the shock. Meanwhile, where a clear pre-crisis majority exists on key issues, opinions should change in the direction of the predominant view. These dynamics result in greater local homogeneity in attitudes but at the same time exacerbate geographic polarization across regions and sometimes even within regions. We illustrate our theory by developing a modified version of the adaptive voter model (AVM), an adaptive network model of opinion dynamics, to study changes in attitudes toward the EU in Ukraine in the context of the Euromaidan Revolution of 2013-14. Using individual-level panel data from surveys fielded before and after the Euromaidan Revolution, we show that EU support increased in areas with high prior public support for EU integration but declined further where initial public attitudes were opposed to the EU, thereby increasing the spatial polarization of EU attitudes in Ukraine. Our tests suggest that the predictive power of both network and regression models increases significantly when we incorporate information about the geographic location of network participants, which highlights the importance of spatially rooted social networks.
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    Understanding each other's models: an introduction and a standard representation of 16 global water models to support intercomparison, improvement, and communication (2021)
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Global water models (GWMs) simulate the terrestrial water cycle, on the global scale, and are used to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems. GWMs are developed within different modeling frameworks and consider different underlying hydrological processes, leading to varied model structures. Furthermore, the equations used to describe various processes take different forms and are generally accessible only from within the individual model codes. These factors have hindered a holistic and detailed understanding of how different models operate, yet such an understanding is crucial for explaining the results of model evaluation studies, understanding inter-model differences in their simulations, and identifying areas for future model development. This study provides a comprehensive overview of how state-of-the-art GWMs are designed. We analyze water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in 16 GWMs that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b (ISIMIP2b). We develop a standard writing style for the model equations to further enhance model improvement, intercomparison, and communication. In this study, WaterGAP2 used the highest number of water storage compartments, 11, and CWatM used 10 compartments. Seven models used six compartments, while three models (JULES-W1, Mac-PDM.20, and VIC) used the lowest number, three compartments. WaterGAP2 simulates five human water use sectors, while four models (CLM4.5, CLM5.0, LPJmL, and MPI-HM) simulate only water used by humans for the irrigation sector. We conclude that even though hydrologic processes are often based on similar equations, in the end, these equations have been adjusted or have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables. Our results highlight that the predictive uncertainty of GWMs can be reduced through improvements of the existing hydrologic processes, implementation of new processes in the models, and high-quality input data.
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    (Im)mobility in the age of COVID-19 (2021)
    In:  International Migration Review
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted global human mobility dynamics. This IMR Dispatch examines the historical, bidirectional links between pandemics and mobility and provides an early analysis of how they unfolded during the first nine months of the COVID-19 emergency. Results show, first, that international travel restrictions to combat the spread of the coronavirus are not a panacea in and of themselves. Second, our analysis demonstrates that the pandemic, government responses, and resulting economic impacts can lead to the involuntary immobility of at-risk populations, such as aspiring asylum-seekers or survival migrants. In a similar fashion, stay-at-home measures have posed dire challenges for those workers who lack options to work from home, as well as for migrants living in precarious, crowded circumstances. Moreover, global economic contraction has increased involuntary immobility by reducing both people’s resources to move and the demand for labor. Third, we show that people’s attempts to protect themselves from the virus can result in shifting patterns of mobility, such as increases in cross-border return migration and urban-to-rural movements. Drawing on international guidance for measures to combat pandemics and relevant frameworks on mobility, we propose approaches to alleviate the burden of travel restrictions on migrants and people aspiring to move, while still addressing the need to contain the pandemic and lessen its repercussions.
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    Integrating climate change adaptation in coastal governance of the Barcelona metropolitan area (2021)
    In:  Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Coastal cities are exposed to high risks due to climate change, as they are potentially affected by both rising sea levels and increasingly intense and frequent coastal storms. Socio-economic drivers also increase exposure to natural hazards, accelerate environmental degradation, and require adaptive governance structures to moderate negative impacts. Here, we use a social network analysis (SNA) combined with further qualitative information to identify barriers and enablers of adaptive governance in the Barcelona metropolitan area. By analyzing how climate change adaptation is mainstreamed between different administrative scales as well as different societal actors, we can determine the governance structures and external conditions that hamper or foster strategical adaptation plans from being used as operational adaptation tools. We identify a diverse set of stakeholders acting at different administrative levels (local to national), in public administration, science, civil society, and the tourism economy. The metropolitan administration acts as an important bridging organization by promoting climate change adaptation to different interest groups and by passing knowledge between actors. Nonetheless, national adaptation planning fails to take into account local experiences in coastal protection, which leads to an ineffective science policy interaction and limits adaptive management and learning opportunities. Overcoming this is difficult, however, as the effectiveness of local adaptation strategies in the Barcelona metropolitan area is very limited due to a strong centralization of power at the national level and a lack of polycentricity. Due to the high touristic pressure, the legal framework is currently oriented to primarily meet the demands of recreational use and tourism, prioritizing these aspects in daily management practice. Therefore, touristic and economic activities need to be aligned to adaptation efforts, to convert them from barriers into drivers for adaptation action. Our work strongly suggests that more effectively embedding adaptation planning and action into existing legal structures of coastal management would allow strategic adaptation plans to be an effective operational tool for local coastal governance.
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    Optimal Carbon Taxation and Horizontal Equity: A Welfare-Theoretic Approach with Application to German Household Data (2021)
    CESifo
    In:  CESifo Working Paper
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: We develop a model of optimal carbon taxation and redistribution taking into account horizontal equity concerns by considering heterogeneous energy efficiencies. By deriving first- and second-best rules for policy instruments including carbon taxes, transfers and energy subsidies, we then investigate analytically how horizontal equity is considered in the social welfare maximizing tax structure. We calibrate the model to German household data and a 30 percent emission reduction goal. Our results show that energy-intensive households should receive more redistributive resources than energy-efficient households if and only if social inequality aversion is sufficiently high. We further find that redistribution of carbon tax revenue via household-specific transfers is the first-best policy. Equal per-capita transfers do not suffer from informational problems, but increase mitigation costs by around 15 percent compared to the first-best for unity inequality aversion. Adding renewable energy subsidies or non-linear energy subsidies, reduces mitigation costs further without relying on observability of households’ energy efficiency.
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    Assessing the Evidence: Climate Change and Migration in Peru (2021)
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), and International Organization for Migration (IOM)
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: People across Peru are vulnerable and exposed to a wide range of hazards, and studies demonstrate that these hazards are key drivers of migration in the country. Hydrometeorological hazards resulting in excessive amounts of water (in such forms as torrential rainfalls and floods) – or the lack thereof (in the form of, for example, drought or glacier retreat) – are particularly salient to migration. Climate change has intensified these hazards and will continue to do so, possibly resulting in new and unparalleled impacts on migration. IOM and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research have partnered to produce this report, which seeks to shed light on the available evidence on the environment, climate change and migration nexus in Peru. The study puts into perspective various climate risks and hazards that affect communities in the country’s main topographical zones: the coast, the highlands, and the rainforest or jungle. The report provides a systematic review of the complex interaction between climate and other factors driving migration in the country. It discusses the necessity to understand climate migration patterns and improve planning and policies in the short term to the mid-term, in view of several “no-analog threats” – that is, those with unprecedented, large impacts – that could occur towards the end of the century.
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    Soil organic carbon dynamics from agricultural management practices under climate change (2021)
    In:  Earth System Dynamics
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Sequestration of soil organic carbon (SOC) on cropland has been proposed as a climate change mitigation strategy to reduce global greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere, which is in particular needed to achieve the targets proposed in the Paris Agreement to limit the increase in atmospheric temperature to well below 2 °C. We here analyze the historical evolution and future development of cropland SOC using the global process-based biophysical model LPJmL, which was recently extended by a detailed representation of tillage practices and residues management (version 5.0–tillage2). We find that model results for historical global estimates for SOC stocks are at the upper end of available literature, with ~2650 Pg C of SOC stored globally in the year 2018, of which ~170 Pg C are stored in cropland soils. In future projections, assuming no further changes in current cropland patterns and under four different management assumptions with two different climate forcings, RCP2.6, and RCP8.5, results suggest that agricultural SOC stocks decline in all scenarios, as the decomposition of SOC outweighs the increase of carbon inputs into the soil from altered management practices. Different climate-change scenarios, as well as assumptions on tillage management, play a minor role in explaining differences in SOC stocks. The choice of tillage practice explains between 0.2 % and 1.3 % of total cropland SOC stock change in the year 2100. Future dynamics in cropland SOC are most strongly controlled by residue management, whether residues are left on the field or harvested. We find that on current cropland, global cropland SOC stocks decline until the end of the century by only 1.0 % to 1.4 % if residue-retention management systems are generally applied and by 26.7 % to 27.3 % in case of residues harvest. For different climatic regions, increases in cropland SOC can only be found for tropical dry, warm temperate moist, and warm temperate dry regions in management systems that retain residues.
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    Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6 (2021)
    In:  Earth System Dynamics
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the primary future climate projections within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models for concentration driven simulations. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century encompassing the Tier 1 experiments (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by 1.15 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5–95 % envelope of the highest scenario, SSP5-8.5. This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and to higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensembles' spread, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. The same experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century, a new result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP, but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades in mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome in terms of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same level as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4. Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering 20–28 years from present. 2 °C of warming is reached as early as the late '30s by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5, but as late as the late '50s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered, 5 °C, is reached only by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5, and not until the mid-90s.
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    Moving the epidemic tipping point through topologically targeted social distancing (2021)
    In:  European Physical Journal - Special Topics
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The epidemic threshold of a social system is the ratio of infection and recovery rate above which a disease spreading in it becomes an epidemic. In the absence of pharmaceutical interventions (i.e. vaccines), the only way to control a given disease is to move this threshold by non-pharmaceutical interventions like social distancing, past the epidemic threshold corresponding to the disease, thereby tipping the system from epidemic into a non-epidemic regime. Modeling the disease as a spreading process on a social graph, social distancing can be modeled by removing some of the graphs links. It has been conjectured that the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix of the resulting graph corresponds to the systems epidemic threshold. Here we use a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to study those link removals that do well at reducing the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix. The MCMC method generates samples from the relative canonical network ensemble with a defined expectation value of λ max λmax . We call this the “well-controlling network ensemble” (WCNE) and compare its structure to randomly thinned networks with the same link density. We observe that networks in the WCNE tend to be more homogeneous in the degree distribution and use this insight to define two ad-hoc removal strategies, which also substantially reduce the largest eigenvalue. A targeted removal of 80% of links can be as effective as a random removal of 90%, leaving individuals with twice as many contacts. Finally, by simulating epidemic spreading via either an SIS or an SIR model on network ensembles created with different link removal strategies (random, WCNE, or degree-homogenizing), we show that tipping from an epidemic to a non-epidemic state happens at a larger critical ratio between infection rate and recovery rate for WCNE and degree-homogenized networks than for those obtained by random removals.
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    On the correctness of monadic backward induction (2021)
    In:  Journal of Functional Programming
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: In control theory, to solve a finite-horizon sequential decision problem (SDP) commonly means to find a list of decision rules that result in an optimal expected total reward (or cost) when taking a given number of decision steps. SDPs are routinely solved using Bellman’s backward induction. Textbook authors (e.g. Bertsekas or Puterman) typically give more or less formal proofs to show that the backward induction algorithm is correct as solution method for deterministic and stochastic SDPs. Botta, Jansson and Ionescu propose a generic framework for finite horizon, monadic SDPs together with a monadic version of backward induction for solving such SDPs. In monadic SDPs, the monad captures a generic notion of uncertainty, while a generic measure function aggregates rewards. In the present paper we define a notion of correctness for monadic SDPs and identify three conditions that allow us to prove a correctness result for monadic backward induction that is comparable to textbook correctness proofs for ordinary backward induction. The conditions that we impose are fairly general and can be cast in category-theoretical terms using the notion of Eilenberg-Moore-algebra. They hold in familiar settings like those of deterministic or stochastic SDPs but we also give examples in which they fail. Our results show that backward induction can safely be employed for a broader class of SDPs than usually treated in textbooks. However, they also rule out certain instances that were considered admissible in the context of Botta et al. ’s generic framework. Our development is formalised in Idris as an extension of the Botta et al. framework and the sources are available as supplementary material.
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    Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts (2021)
    In:  Environmental Research Letters
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Pathways towards limiting global warming to well below 2°C, as used by the IPCC in the Fifth Assessment Report, do not consider the climate impacts already occurring below 2°C. Here we show that accounting for such damages significantly increases the near-term ambition of transformation pathways. We use econometric estimates of climate damages on GDP growth, and explicitly model the uncertainty in the persistence time of damages. The Integrated Assessment Model we use includes the climate system and mitigation technology detail required to derive near-term policies. We find an optimal carbon price of $115 per tonne of CO2 in 2030. The long-term persistence of damages, while highly uncertain, is a main driver of the near-term carbon price. Accounting for damages on economic growth increases the gap between the currently pledged nationally determined contributions and the welfare-optimal 2030 emissions by two thirds, compared to pathways considering the 2°C limit only.
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    Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP6 models (2021)
    In:  Earth System Dynamics
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The Indian summer monsoon is an integral part of the global climate system. As its seasonal rainfall plays a crucial role in India's agriculture and shapes many other aspects of life, it affects the livelihood of a fifth of the world's population. It is therefore highly relevant to assess its change under potential future climate change. Global climate models within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP-5) indicated a consistent increase in monsoon rainfall and its variability under global warming. Since the range of the results of CMIP-5 was still large and the confidence in the models was limited due to partly poor representation of observed rainfall, the updates within the latest generation of climate models in CMIP-6 are of interest. Here, we analyse 32 models of the latest CMIP-6 exercise with regard to their annual mean monsoon rainfall and its variability. All of these models show a substantial increase in June-to-September (JJAS) mean rainfall under unabated climate change (SSP5-8.5) and most do also for the other three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways analyzed (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0). Moreover, the simulation ensemble indicates a linear dependence of rainfall on global mean temperature with high agreement between the models and independent of the SSP; the multi-model mean for JJAS projects an increase of 0.33 mm/day and 5.3 % per degree of global warming. This is significantly higher than in the CMIP-5 projections. Most models project that the increase will contribute to the precipitation especially in the Himalaya region and to the northeast of the Bay of Bengal, as well as the west coast of India. Interannual variability is found to be increasing in the higher-warming scenarios by almost all models. The CMIP-6 simulations largely confirm the findings from CMIP-5 models, but show an increased robustness across models with reduced uncertainties and updated magnitudes towards a stronger increase in monsoon rainfall.
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    Climate Change and Potential distribution of Potato (Solanum Tuberosum) Crop Cultivation in Pakistan Using Maxent (2021)
    In:  AIMS Agriculture and Food
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The impacts of climate change are projected to become more intense and frequent. One of the indirect impacts of climate change is food insecurity. Agriculture in Pakistan, measured fourth best in the world, is already experiencing visible adverse impacts of climate change. Among many other food sources, potato crop remains one of the food security crops for developing nations. Potatoes are widely cultivated in Pakistan. To assess the impact of climate change on potato crop in Pakistan, it is imperative to analyze its distribution under future climate change scenarios using Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Maximum Entropy Model is used in this study to predict the spatial distribution of Potato in 2070 using two CMIP5 models for two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). 19 Bioclimatic variables are incorporated along with other contributing variables like soil type, elevation and irrigation. The results indicate slight decrease in the suitable area for potato growth in RCP 4.5 and drastic decrease in suitable area in RCP 8.5 for both models. The performance evaluation of the model is based on AUC. AUC value of 0.85 suggests the fitness of the model and thus, it is applicable to predict the suitable climate for potato production in Pakistan. Sustainable potato cultivation is needed to increase productivity in developing countries while promoting better resource management and optimization.
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    Can Tanzania’s adaptation measures prevent future maize yield decline? A simulation study from Singida region (2021)
    In:  Regional Environmental Change
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Cereal crop production in sub-Saharan Africa has not achieved the much-needed increase in yields to foster economic development and food security. Maize yields in the region’s semi-arid agroecosystems are constrained by highly variable rainfall, which may be worsened by climate change. Thus, the Tanzanian government has prioritised agriculture as an adaptation sector in its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution, and crop management adjustments as a key investment area in its Agricultural Sector Development Programme. In this study, we investigated how future changes in maize yields under different climate scenarios can be countered by regional adjusted crop management and cultivar adaptation strategies. A crop model was used to simulate maize yields in the Singida Region of Tanzania for the baseline period 1980-2012 and under three future climate projections for 2020- 2060 and 2061-2099. Adaptation strategies to improve yields were full irrigation, deficit irrigation, mulch and nitrogen addition and another cultivar. According to our model results, increase in temperature is the main driver of future maize yield decline. Increased respiration and phenological development were associated with lower maize yields of 16% in 2020-2060 and 20% in 2061-2099 compared to the 1980-2012 baseline. Surprisingly, none of the management strategies significantly improved yields; however, a different maize variety that was tested as an alternative coping strategy performed better. This study suggests that investment in accessibility of improved varieties and investigation of maize traits that have the potential to perform well in a warmer future are better suited for sustaining maize production in the semi-arid region than adjustments in crop management.
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    Reply to the Comment on "On the relationship between AMOC slowdown and global surface warming" (2021)
    In:  Environmental Research Letters
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: In their Comment on our paper (Caesar et al., 2019), Chen and Tung (hereafter C&T) argue that our analysis, showing that over the last decades AMOC strength and global mean surface temperature were positively correlated, is incorrect. Their claim is mainly based on two arguments, neither of which is justified: First, C&T claim that our analysis is based on "established evidence" that was only true for preindustrial conditions – this is not the case. Using data from the modern period (1947-2012), we show that the established understanding (i.e. deep-water formation in the North Atlantic cools the deep ocean and warms the surface) is correct, but our analysis is not based on this fact. Secondly, C&T claim that our results are based on a statistical analysis of only one cycle of data which was furthermore incorrectly detrended. This, too, is not true. Our conclusion that a weaker AMOC delays the current surface warming rather than enhances it, is based on several independent lines of evidence. The data we show to support this covers more than one cycle and the detrending (which was performed to avoid spurious correlations due to a common trend) does not affect our conclusion: the correlation between AMOC strength and global mean surface temperature is positive. We do not claim that this is strong evidence that the two time series are in phase, but rather that this means that the two time series are not anti-correlated.
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    Drivers of Pine Island Glacier speed-up between 1996 and 2016 (2021)
    In:  The Cryosphere
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Pine Island Glacier in West Antarctica is among the fastest changing glaciers worldwide. Over the last two decades, the glacier has lost in excess of a trillion tons of ice, or the equivalent of 3 mm of sea level rise. The ongoing changes are commonly attributed to ocean-induced thinning of its floating ice shelf and the associated reduction in buttressing forces. However, other drivers of change such as large-scale calving, changes in ice rheology and basal slipperiness could play a vital, yet unquantified, role in controlling the ongoing and future evolution of the glacier. In addition, recent studies have shown that mechanical properties of the bed are key to explaining the observed speed-up. Here we used a combination of the latest remote sensing datasets between 1996 and 2016, data assimilation tools and numerical perturbation experiments to quantify the relative importance of all processes in driving the recent changes in Pine Island Glacier dynamics. We show that (1) calving and ice shelf thinning have caused a comparable reduction in ice-shelf buttressing over the past two decades, that (2) simulated changes in ice flow over a viscously deforming bed are only compatible with observations if large and widespread changes in ice viscosity and/or basal slipperiness are taken into account, and that (3) a spatially varying, predominantly plastic bed rheology can closely reproduce observed changes in flow without marked variations in ice-internal and basal properties. Our results demonstrate that in addition to its evolving ice thickness, calving processes and a heterogeneous bed rheology play a key role in the contemporary evolution of Pine Island Glacier.
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    The crucial role of complementarity, transparency and adaptability for designing energy policies for sustainable development (2021)
    In:  Energy Policy
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Agreement have ushered in a new era of policymaking to deliver on the formulated goals. Energy policies are key to ensuring universal access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy (SDG7). Yet they can also have considerable impact on other goals. To successfully achieve multiple goals concurrently, policies need to balance different objectives and manage their interactions. Refining previously contemplated design principles, we identify three key principles - complementary, transparency and adaptability - as highly pertinent for multiple-objective energy policies based on a synthesis of seventeen coordinated policy case studies. First, policies should entail complementary measures and design provisions that specifically target non-energy objectives (complementarity). Second, policy impacts should be tracked comprehensively in both energy and non-energy domains to uncover diminishing returns and facilitate policy learning (transparency). Third, policies should be capable of adapting to changing objectives over time (adaptability). These principles are rarely considered in current policies, implying the need to mainstream them into the next generation of policymaking by pointing to best practices and new tools.
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    Statistical analysis of tipping pathways in agent-based models (2021)
    In:  European Physical Journal - Special Topics
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Agent-based models are a natural choice for modeling complex social systems. In such models simple stochastic interaction rules for a large population of individuals on the microscopic scale can lead to emergent dynamics on the macroscopic scale, for instance a sudden shift of majority opinion or behavior. Here we are introducing a methodology for studying noise-induced tipping between relevant subsets of the agent state space representing characteristic configurations. Due to a large number of interacting individuals, agent-based models are high-dimensional, though usually a lower-dimensional structure of the emerging collective behaviour exists. We therefore apply Diffusion Maps, a non-linear dimension reduction technique, to reveal the intrinsic low-dimensional structure. We characterize the tipping behaviour by means of Transition Path Theory, which helps gaining a statistical understanding of the tipping paths such as their distribution, flux and rate. By systematically studying two agent-based models that exhibit a multitude of tipping pathways and cascading effects, we illustrate the practicability of our approach.
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    Country-resolved combined emission and socio-economic pathways based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (2021)
    In:  Earth System Science Data
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Abstract. Climate policy analysis needs reference scenarios to assess emissions targets and current trends. When presenting their national climate policies, countries often showcase their target trajectories against fictitious so-called baselines. These counterfactual scenarios are meant to present future Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions in the absence of climate policy. These so-called baselines presented by countries are often of limited use as they can be exaggerated and the methodology used to derive them is usually not transparent. Scenarios created by independent modeling groups using integrated assessment models (IAMs) can provide different interpretations of several socio-economic storylines and can provide a more realistic backdrop against which the projected target emission trajectory can be assessed. However, the IAMs are limited in regional resolution. This resolution is further reduced in intercomparison studies as data for a common set of regions are produced by aggregating the underlying smaller regions. Thus, the data are not readily available for country-specific policy analysis. This gap is closed by downscaling regional IAM scenarios to country-level. The last of such efforts has been performed for the SRES scenarios (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios), which are over a decade old by now. CMIP6 scenarios have been downscaled to a grid, however they cover only a few combinations of forcing levels and SSP storylines with only a single model per combination. Here, we provide up to date country scenarios, downscaled from the full RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) and SSP (Shared Socio-Economic Pathways) scenario databases, using results from the SSP GDP (Gross Domestic Product) country model results as drivers for the downscaling process. The data is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3638137 (Gütschow et al., 2020).
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    Climate change, human mobility, and development (2021)
    In:  Migration Studies
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Elizabeth Ferris’ review of research on environmental change and human mobility in this colloquium points to the important role that development actors play in identifying potential solutions for affected persons. She mentions in particular the work of the World Bank’s Climate Change Group and the Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development (KNOMAD). Such mobility is indeed a critical issue from a development perspective, as reflected in the Sustainable Development Goals. Goals 10.7. and 13 encourage states to ‘facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration and mobility of people’ and demand ‘urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts’, with a focus on enhancing mitigation, adaptation, and disaster risk reduction practices. The World Bank’s development goals of eradicating extreme poverty and boosting shared prosperity further recognize the need to build capacity in these areas.
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    Climate Risk Analysis for Identifying and Weighing Adaptation Strategies for the Agricultural Sector in Northern Ghana - A Study at District Level in the Upper West Region (2021)
    A report prepared by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) for the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
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    Reviewing the Market Stability Reserve in light of more ambitious EU ETS emission targets (2021)
    In:  Energy Policy
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The stringency of the EU's Emission Trading System (ETS) is bound to be ratcheted-up to deliver on more ambitious goals as formulated in the EU's Green Deal. Tightening the cap needs to consider the interactions with the Market Stability Reserve (MSR), which will be reviewed in 2021. We analyse these issues using the model LIMES-EU. First, we examine how revising MSR parameters impacts allowance cancellations. We find that varying key design parameters leads to cancellations in the range of 2.6–7.9 Gt – compared to 5.1 Gt under current regulation. Overall, the bank thresholds, which define when there is intake to/outtake from the MSR, have the highest impact. Intake rates above 12% only have a limited effect, and cause oscillatory intake behaviour. Second, we analyse how more ambitious climate 2030 targets can be achieved by adjusting the linear reduction factor (LRF). We find that the LRF increases MSR cancellations substantially up to 10.0 Gt. This implies that increasing its value from currently 2.2% to only 2.6% could be consistent with an EU-wide target of −55% by 2030. However, MSR cancellations are subject to large uncertainty, which increases the complexity of the market and induces high price uncertainty.
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    Asset Pricing and the Carbon Beta of Externalities (2021)
    CESifo GmbH
    In:  CESifo Working Paper
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Climate policy needs to set incentives for actors who face imperfect, distorted markets and large uncertainties about the costs and benefits of abatement. Investors price uncertain assets according to their expected return and risk (carbon beta). We study carbon pricing and financial incentives in a consumption-based asset pricing model distorted by technology spillover and time-inconsistency. We find that both distortions reduce the equilibrium asset return and delay investment in abatement. However, their effect on the carbon beta and risk premium of abatement can be decreasing (when innovation spillovers are not anticipated) or increasing (when climate policy is not credible). Efficiency can be restored by carbon pricing and financial incentives, implemented in our model by a regulator and by a long-term investment fund. The regulator commands carbon pricing and the fund provides subsidies to reduce technology costs or to boost investment returns. The investment subsidy creates a financial incentive that complements the carbon price. In this way the investment fund can support climate policy when the actions of the regulator fall short. These instruments must also consider the investment risk and the sequence of their implementation. The investment fund can then pave the way for carbon pricing in later periods by preventing a capital misallocation that would be too expensive to correct. Thus the investment fund improves the feasibility of ambitious carbon pricing.
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    Coupling framework (1.0) for the PISM (1.1.4) ice sheet model and the MOM5 (5.1.0) ocean model via the PICO ice shelf cavity model in an Antarctic domain (2021)
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The past and future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is largely controlled by interactions between the ocean and floating ice shelves. To investigate these interactions, coupled ocean and ice sheet model configurations are required. Previous modelling studies have mostly relied on high resolution configurations, limiting these studies to individual glaciers or regions over short time scales of decades to a few centuries. We present a framework to couple the dynamic ice sheet model PISM with the global ocean general circulation model MOM5 via the ice-shelf cavity module PICO. Since ice-shelf cavities are not resolved by MOM5, but parameterized with the box model PICO, the framework allows the ice sheet and ocean model to be run at resolution of 16 km and 3 degree, respectively. This approach makes the coupled configuration a useful tool for the analysis of interactions between the entire Antarctic Ice Sheet and the Earth system over time spans on the order of centuries to millennia. In this study we describe the technical implementation of this coupling framework: sub-shelf melting in the ice sheet model is calculated by PICO from modeled ocean temperatures and salinities at the depth of the continental shelf and, vice versa, the resulting mass and energy fluxes from the melting at the ice-ocean interface are transferred to the ocean model. Mass and energy fluxes are shown to be conserved to machine precision across the considered model domains. The implementation is computationally efficient as it introduces only minimal overhead. The framework deals with heterogeneous spatial grid geometries, varying grid resolutions and time scales between the ice and ocean model in a generic way, and can thus be adopted to a wide range of model setups.
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    Network-based Forecasting of Climate Phenomena (2021)
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Network theory, as emerging from complex systems science, can provide critical predictive power for mitigating the global warming crisis and other societal challenges. Here we discuss the main differences of this approach to classical numerical modeling and highlight several cases where the network approach substantially improved the prediction of high-impact phenomena: 1) El Niño events, 2) droughts in the central Amazon, 3) extreme rainfall in the eastern Central Andes, 4) the Indian summer monsoon, and 5) extreme stratospheric polar vortex states that influence the occurrence of wintertime cold spells in northern Eurasia. In this perspective, we argue that network-based approaches can gainfully complement numerical modeling.
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    Quantifying the road‐effect zone for a critically endangered primate (2021)
    In:  Conservation Letters
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The global road network is expanding at an unprecedented rate, threatening the persistence of many species. Yet, even for the most endangered wildlife, crucial information on the distance up to which roads impact species abundance is lacking. Here we use ecological threshold analysis to quantify the road-effect zone (REZ) for the critically endangered western chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes verus). We found: (1) the REZ extends 5.4 km (95% CI [4.9–5.8 km]) from minor roads and 17.2 km (95% CI [15.8–18.6]) from major roads, the latter being more than three times wider than a previous estimate of the average REZ for mammals; and (2) only 4.3% of the chimpanzees’ range is not impacted by existing roads. These findings reveal the high sensitivity and susceptibility of nonhuman primates to roads across West Africa, a region undergoing rapid development, and can inform the implementation of more effective guidelines to mitigate road impacts.
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    Taxonomies for structuring models for World–Earth systems analysis of the Anthropocene: subsystems, their interactions and social–ecological feedback loops (2021)
    In:  Earth System Dynamics
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: In the Anthropocene, social processes have become critical to understanding planetary-scale Earth system dynamics. The conceptual foundations of Earth system modelling have externalised social processes in ways that now hinder progress in understanding Earth resilience and informing governance of global environmental change. New approaches to global modelling are needed to address these challenges, but the current modelling landscape is highly diverse and heterogeneous, ranging from purely biophysical Earth System Models, to hybrid macro-economic Integrated Assessments Models, to a plethora of models of socio-cultural dynamics. World-Earth models, currently not yet available, will need to integrate all these elements, so future World-Earth modellers require a structured approach to identify, classify, select, and combine model components. Here, we develop taxonomies for ordering the multitude of societal and biophysical subsystems and their interactions. We suggest three taxa for modelled subsystems: (i) biophysical, where dynamics is usually represented by "natural laws" of physics, chemistry or ecology (i.e., the usual components of Earth system models), (ii) socio-cultural, dominated by processes of human behaviour, decision making and collective social dynamics (e.g., politics, institutions, social networks), and (iii) socio-metabolic, dealing with the material interactions of social and biophysical subsystems (e.g., human bodies, natural resource and agriculture). We show how higher-order taxonomies for interactions between two or more subsystems can be derived, highlighting the kinds of social-ecological feedback loops where new modelling efforts need to be directed. As an example, we apply the taxonomy to a stylised World-Earth system model of socially transmitted discount rates in a greenhouse gas emissions game to illustrate the effects of social-ecological feedback loops that are usually not considered in current modelling efforts. The proposed taxonomy can contribute to guiding the design and operational development of more comprehensive World-Earth models for understanding Earth resilience and charting sustainability transitions within planetary boundaries and other future trajectories in the Anthropocene.
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    Equity in human adaptation-related responses: A systematic global review (2021)
    In:  One Earth
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Growing evidence suggests that climate adaptation responses that do not incorporate equity considerations may worsen inequality and increase vulnerability. Using data from a systematic review of peer-reviewed empirical research on adaptation responses to climate change (n = 1,682), we present an assessment of how social equity is considered in adaptation across regions, sectors, and social groups. Roughly 60% of peer-reviewed literature on adaptation responses considers social equity by reporting on which marginalized groups were involved in planning or implementation. Articles on responses in Africa and Asia and those focusing on poverty reduction most frequently considered social equity. Equity was less likely to be considered in adaptation responses in Europe, Australasia, and North America, as well as in literature focused on cities. Income-based inequity was more frequently considered than gender, age, or Indigenous status. Ethnic and racial minorities, migrants, and people with disabilities were rarely considered. Attention to the levels and forms in which equity is integrated into adaptation research and practice is needed to ensure just adaptation.
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    Characterizing stochastic resonance in a triple cavity (2021)
    In:  Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Many biological systems possess confined structures, which produce novel influences on the dynamics. Here, stochastic resonance (SR) in a triple cavity that consists of three units and is subjected to noise, periodic force and vertical constance force is studied, by calculating the spectral amplification η numerically. Meanwhile, SR in the given triple cavity and differences from other structures are explored. First, it is found that the cavity parameters can eliminate or regulate the maximum of η and the noise intensity that induces this maximum. Second, compared to a double cavity with similar maximum/minimum widths and distances between two maximum widths as the triple cavity, η in the triple one shows a larger maximum. Next, the conversion of the natural boundary in the pure potential to the reflection boundary in the triple cavity will create the necessity of a vertical force to induce SR and lead to a decrease in the maximum of η. In addition, η monotonically decreases with the increase of the vertical force and frequency of the periodic force, while it presents several trends when increasing the periodic force’s amplitude for different noise intensities. Finally, our studies are extended to the impact of fractional Gaussian noise excitations. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Vibrational and stochastic resonance in driven nonlinear systems (part 2)’.
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    Dose-response functions and surrogate models for exploring social contagion in the Copenhagen Networks Study (2021)
    In:  European Physical Journal - Special Topics
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Spreading dynamics and complex contagion processes on networks are important mechanisms underlying the emergence of critical transitions, tipping points and other non-linear phenomena in complex human and natural systems. Increasing amounts of temporal network data are now becoming available to study such spreading processes of behaviours, opinions, ideas, diseases and innovations to test hypotheses regarding their specific properties. To this end, we here present a methodology based on dose–response functions and hypothesis testing using surrogate data models that randomise most aspects of the empirical data while conserving certain structures relevant to contagion, group or homophily dynamics. We demonstrate this methodology for synthetic temporal network data of spreading processes generated by the adaptive voter model. Furthermore, we apply it to empirical temporal network data from the Copenhagen Networks Study. This data set provides a physically-close-contact network between several hundreds of university students participating in the study over the course of 3 months. We study the potential spreading dynamics of the health-related behaviour “regularly going to the fitness studio” on this network. Based on a hierarchy of surrogate data models, we find that our method neither provides significant evidence for an influence of a dose–response-type network spreading process in this data set, nor significant evidence for homophily. The empirical dynamics in exercise behaviour are likely better described by individual features such as the disposition towards the behaviour, and the persistence to maintain it, as well as external influences affecting the whole group, and the non-trivial network structure. The proposed methodology is generic and promising also for applications to other temporal network data sets and traits of interest.
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    Assessing the Evidence: Climate Change and Migration in the United Republic of Tanzania (2021)
    International Organization for Migration
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Language: English
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    Global scenarios of irrigation water abstractions for bioenergy production: a systematic review (2021)
    In:  Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Many scenarios of future climate evolution and its anthropogenic drivers include considerable amounts of bioenergy as a fuel source, as a negative emission technology, and for providing electricity. The associated freshwater abstractions for irrigation of dedicated biomass plantations might be substantial and therefore potentially increase water limitation and stress in affected regions; however, assumptions and quantities of water use provided in the literature vary strongly. This paper reviews existing global assessments of freshwater abstractions for bioenergy production and puts these estimates into the context of scenarios of other water-use sectors. We scanned the available literature and (out of 430 initial hits) found 16 publications (some of which include several bioenergy-water-use scenarios) with reported values on global irrigation water abstractions for biomass plantations, suggesting water withdrawals in the range of 128.4 to 9000 km3 yr−1, which would come on top of (or compete with) agricultural, industrial, and domestic water withdrawals. To provide an understanding of the origins of this large range, we present the diverse underlying assumptions, discuss major study differences, and calculate an inverse water-use efficiency (iwue), which facilitates comparison of the required freshwater amounts per produced biomass harvest. We conclude that due to the potentially high water demands and the tradeoffs that might go along with them, bioenergy should be an integral part of global assessments of freshwater demand and use. For interpreting and comparing reported estimates of possible future bioenergy water abstractions, full disclosure of parameters and assumptions is crucial. A minimum set should include the complete water balances of bioenergy production systems (including partitioning of blue and green water), bioenergy crop species and associated water-use efficiencies, rainfed and irrigated bioenergy plantation locations (including total area and meteorological conditions), and total biomass harvest amounts. In the future, a model intercomparison project with standardized parameters and scenarios would be helpful.
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    CM2Mc-LPJmL v1.0: Biophysical coupling of a process-based dynamic vegetation model with managed land to a general circulation model (2021)
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The terrestrial biosphere is exposed to land-use and climate change, which not only affects vegetation dynamics, but also changes land-atmosphere feedbacks. Specifically, changes in land-cover affect biophysical feedbacks of water and energy, therefore contributing to climate change. In this study, we couple the well established and comprehensively validated Dynamic Global Vegetation Model LPJmL5 to the coupled climate model CM2Mc, which is based on the atmosphere model AM2 and the ocean model MOM5 (CM2Mc-LPJmL). In CM2Mc, we replace the simple land surface model LaD (where vegetation is static and prescribed) with LPJmL5 and fully couple the water and energy cycles using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Flexible Modeling System (FMS). Several improvements to LPJmL5 were implemented to allow a fully functional biophysical coupling. These include a sub-daily cycle for calculating energy and water fluxes, a conductance of the soil evaporation and plant interception, a canopy-layer humidity, and the surface energy balance in order to calculate the surface and canopy layer temperature within LPJmL5. Exchanging LaD by LPJmL5, and therefore switching from a static and prescribed vegetation to a dynamic vegetation, allows us to model important biosphere processes, including fire, mortality, permafrost, hydrological cycling, and the impacts of managed land (crop growth and irrigation). Our results show that CM2Mc-LPJmL has similar temperature and precipitation biases as the original CM2Mc model with LaD. Performance of LPJmL5 in the coupled system compared to Earth observation data and to LPJmL offline simulation results is within acceptable error margins. The historic global mean temperature evolution of our model setup is within the range of CMIP5 models. The comparison of model runs with and without land-use change shows a partially warmer and drier climate state across the global land surface. CM2Mc-LPJmL opens new opportunities to investigate important biophysical vegetation-climate feedbacks with a state-of-the-art and process-based dynamic vegetation model.
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    The social cost of carbon and inequality: When local redistribution shapes global carbon prices (2021)
    In:  Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: The social cost of carbon is a central metric for optimal carbon prices. Previous literatureshows that inequality significantly influences the social cost of carbon, but mostly omits het-erogeneity below the national level. We present an optimal taxation model of the social cost ofcarbon that accounts for inequality betweenand within countries. We find that climate anddistributional policy can generally not be separated. If only one country does not compen-sate low-income households for disproportionate damages, the social cost of carbon tendsto increase globally. Optimal carbon prices remain roughly unchanged if national redistribu-tion leaves inequality between households unaffected by climate change and if the utility ofhouseholds is approximately logarithmic in consumption.
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    Will climate change increase the exposure to river flooding? (2021)
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
    In:  ISIpedia - The open inter-sectoral impacts encyclopedi
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
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  • 79
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    Spatial organization of connectivity in functional climate networks describing event synchrony of heavy precipitation (2021)
    In:  European Physical Journal - Special Topics
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: In the past years, there has been an increasing number of applications of functional climate networks to studying the spatiotemporal organization of heavy rainfall events or similar types of extreme behavior in some climate variable of interest. Nearly all existing studies have employed the concept of event synchronization (ES) to statistically measure similarity in the timing of events at different grid points. Recently, it has been pointed out that this measure can however lead to biases in the presence of events that are heavily clustered in time. Here, we present an analysis of the effects of event declustering on the resulting functional climate network properties describing spatio- temporal patterns of heavy rainfall events during the South American monsoon season based on ES and a conceptually similar method, event coincidence analysis (ECA). As examples for widely employed local (per-node) network characteristics of different type, we study the degree, local clustering coefficient and average link distance patterns, as well as their mutual interdependency, for three different values of the link density. Our results demonstrate that the link density can markedly affect the resulting spatial patterns. Specifically, we find the qualitative inversion of the degree pattern with rising link density in one of the studied settings. To our best knowledge, such crossover behavior has not been described before in event synchrony based networks. In addition, declustering relieves differences between ES and ECA based network properties in some measures while not in others. This underlines the need for a careful choice of the methodological settings in functional climate network studies of extreme events and associated interpretation of the obtained results, especially when higher-order network properties are considered.
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    Tackling unresolved questions in forest ecology: the past and future role of simulation models (2021)
    In:  Ecology and Evolution
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Language: English
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    Spatio-temporal patterns of extreme fires in Amazonian forests (2021)
    In:  European Physical Journal - Special Topics
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Fires are a fundamental part of the Earth System. In the last decades, they have been altering ecosystem structure, biogeochemical cycles and atmospheric composition with unprecedented rapidity. In this study, we implement a complex networks-based methodology to track individual fires over space and time. We focus on extreme fires—the 5% most intense fires—in the tropical forests of the Brazilian Legal Amazon over the period 2002–2019. We analyse the interannual variability in the number and spatial patterns of extreme forest fires in years with diverse climatic conditions and anthropogenic pressure to examine potential synergies between climate and anthropogenic drivers. We observe that major droughts, that increase forest flammability, co-occur with high extreme fire years but also that it is fundamental to consider anthropogenic activities to understand the distribution of extreme fires. Deforestation fires, fires escaping from managed lands, and other types of forest degradation and fragmentation provide the ignition sources for fires to ignite in the forests. We find that all extreme forest fires identified are located within a 0.5-km distance from forest edges, and up to 56% of them are within a 1-km distance from roads (which increases to 73% within 5 km), showing a strong correlation that defines spatial patterns of extreme fires.
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    Planned relocation in Peru: advancing from well-meant legislation to good practice (2021)
    In:  Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences
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    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Along Peru’s rainforest rivers, rising flood extremes are increasingly exceeding coping capacities of vulnerable households. Peru 14 has detailed legislation that embraces planned relocation as a strategic solution to such situations and various relocation projects 15 are underway across the country. This research brief analyzes well-being consequences for two communities requesting reloca- 16 tion, using qualitative data collected from experts and 30 affected people. Initial results emphasize that weak governance, 17 poverty, third-party involvement, and community action have influenced relocation outcomes. Delays and fragmented imple- 18 mentation have threatened people’s well-being. One community, waiting for land to relocate since 2015, has suffered from 19 continued hazard exposure, deteriorated material conditions, and reduced subjective well-being. The second community 20 achieved relocation only after a decade in detrimental limbo. Although livelihood challenges persist, its inhabitants now benefit 21 from better market access and decreased exposure, leading to higher subjective well-being. With rising needs for relocation 22 worldwide, the cases highlight that detailed legislation is not sufficient to safeguard people’s well-being. Advancing from well- 23 meant legislation to good practice requires adequate institutional capacity, effectivemechanisms for oversight and accountability, 24 better engagement of third parties, and dedicated efforts to strengthen community agency
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    Random-matrix theory for the Lindblad master equation (2021)
    In:  Chaos
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-21
    Description: Open quantum systems with Markovian dynamics can be described by the Lindblad equation. The quantity governing the dynamics is the Lindblad superoperator. We apply random-matrix theory to this superoperator to elucidate its spectral properties. The distribution of eigenvalues and the correlations of neighboring eigenvalues are obtained for the cases of purely unitary dynamics, pure dissipation, and the physically realistic combination of unitary and dissipative dynamics. The theory of ensembles of random matrices has proved useful in understanding the energy spectra of complex closed quantum systems, such as heavy atomic nuclei and classically chaotic billiards. In these cases, the Hamiltonian describing the system is drawn from a suitable random-matrix ensemble. More recently, it has been realized that random-matrix theory can also shed light on open quantum systems. Their dynamics is not described by a Hamiltonian but by a so-called Lindblad generator. Using random-matrix ensembles suitable for the Lindblad generator, we study its spectral properties, which are important for the dynamics of open quantum systems.
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    Fever and hypothermia represent two populations of sepsis patients and are associated with outside temperature (2021)
    In:  Critical Care
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-22
    Description: Background: Fever and hypothermia have been observed in septic patients. Their influence on prognosis is subject to ongoing debates. Methods: We did a secondary analysis of a large clinical dataset from a quality improvement trial. A binary logistic regression model was calculated to assess the association of the thermal response with outcome and a multinomial regression model to assess factors associated with fever or hypothermia. Results: With 6542 analyzable cases we observed a bimodal temperature response characterized by fever or hypothermia, normothermia was rare. Hypothermia and high fever were both associated with higher lactate values. Hypothermia was associated with higher mortality, but this association was reduced after adjustment for other risk factors. Age, community-acquired sepsis, lower BMI and lower outside temperatures were associated with hypothermia while bacteremia and higher procalcitonin values were associated with high fever. Conclusions: Septic patients show either a hypothermic or a fever response. Whether hypothermia is a maladaptive response, as indicated by the higher mortality in hypothermic patients, or an adaptive response in patients with limited metabolic reserves under colder environmental conditions, remains an open question. Trial registration The original trial whose dataset was analyzed was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01187134) on August 23, 2010, the first patient was included on July 1, 2011.
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    ATTRICI v1.1 - counterfactual climate for impact attribution (2021)
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-03-31
    Description: beliebiger Attribution in its general definition aims to quantify drivers of change in a system. According to IPCC Working Group II (WGII) a change in a natural, human or managed system is attributed to climate change by quantifying the difference between the observed state of the system and a counterfactual baseline that characterizes the system's behavior in the absence of climate change, where “climate change refers to any long-term trend in climate, irrespective of its cause” (IPCC, 2014). Impact attribution following this definition remains a challenge because the counterfactual baseline, which characterizes the system behavior in the hypothetical absence of climate change, cannot be observed. Process-based and empirical impact models can fill this gap as they allow us to simulate the counterfactual climate impact baseline. In those simulations, the models are forced by observed direct (human) drivers such as land use changes, changes in water or agricultural management but a counterfactual climate without long-term changes. We here present ATTRICI (ATTRIbuting Climate Impacts), an approach to construct the required counterfactual stationary climate data from observational (factual) climate data. Our method identifies the long-term shifts in the considered daily climate variables that are correlated to global mean temperature change assuming a smooth annual cycle of the associated scaling coefficients for each day of the year. The produced counterfactual climate datasets are used as forcing data within the impact attribution setup of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a). Our method preserves the internal variability of the observed data in the sense that factual and counterfactual data for a given day have the same rank in their respective statistical distributions. The associated impact model simulations allow for quantifying the contribution of climate change to observed long-term changes in impact indicators and for quantifying the contribution of the observed trend in climate to the magnitude of individual impact events. Attribution of climate impacts to anthropogenic forcing would need an additional step separating anthropogenic climate forcing from other sources of climate trends, which is not covered by our method.
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    Laudato si’ - Concern for Our Global Commons (2021)
    In:  Laudato si' Reader - An Alliance of Care for Our Common Home
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    Publication Date: 2022-04-06
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    Random logic networks: From classical Boolean to quantum dynamics (2021)
    In:  Physical Review E
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-04-06
    Description: We investigate dynamical properties of a quantum generalization of classical reversible Boolean networks. The state of each node is encoded as a single qubit, and classical Boolean logic operations are supplemented by controlled bit-flip and Hadamard operations. We consider synchronous updating schemes in which each qubit is updated at each step based on stored values of the qubits from the previous step. We investigate the periodic or quasiperiodic behavior of quantum networks, and we analyze the propagation of single site perturbations through the quantum networks with input degree one. A non-classical mechanism for perturbation propagation leads to substantially different evolution of the Hamming distance between the original and perturbed states.
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  • 88
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    Climate policy accelerates structural changes in energy employment (2021)
    In:  Energy Policy
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    Publication Date: 2022-04-12
    Description: The employment implications of decarbonizing the energy sector have received far less attention than the technology dimension of the transition, although being of critical importance to policymakers. In this work, we adapt a methodology based on employment factors to project future changes in quantity and composition of direct energy supply jobs for two scenarios - (1) relatively weak emissions reductions as pledged in the nationally determined contributions (NDC) and (2) stringent reductions compatible with the 1.5 °C target. We find that in the near-term the 1.5°C-compatible scenario results in a net increase in jobs through gains in solar and wind jobs in construction, installation, and manufacturing, despite significant losses in coal fuel supply; eventually leading to a peak in total direct energy jobs in 2025. In the long run, improvements in labour productivity lead to a decrease of total direct energy employment compared to today, however, total jobs are still higher in a 1.5 °C than in an NDC scenario. Operation and maintenance jobs dominate future jobs, replacing fuel supply jobs. The results point to the need for active policies aimed at retraining, both inside and outside the renewable energy sector, to complement climate policies within the concept of a “just transition”.
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    Economic damages from Hurricane Sandy attributable to sea level rise caused by anthropogenic climate change (2021)
    In:  Nature Communications
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-04-12
    Description: In 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast of the United States, creating widespread coastal flooding and over $60 billion in reported economic damage. The potential influence of climate change on the storm itself has been debated, but sea level rise driven by anthropogenic climate change more clearly contributed to damages. To quantify this effect, here we simulate water levels and damage both as they occurred and as they would have occurred across a range of lower sea levels corresponding to different estimates of attributable sea level rise. We find that approximately $8.1B ($4.7B–$14.0B, 5th–95th percentiles) of Sandy’s damages are attributable to climate-mediated anthropogenic sea level rise, as is extension of the flood area to affect 71 (40–131) thousand additional people. The same general approach demonstrated here may be applied to impact assessments for other past and future coastal storms.
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    Stewardship of global collective behavior (2021)
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-04-12
    Description: Collective behavior provides a framework for understanding how the actions and properties of groups emerge from the way individuals generate and share information. In humans, information flows were initially shaped by natural selection yet are increasingly structured by emerging communication technologies. Our larger, more complex social networks now transfer high-fidelity information over vast distances at low cost. The digital age and the rise of social media have accelerated changes to our social systems, with poorly understood functional consequences. This gap in our knowledge represents a principal challenge to scientific progress, democracy, and actions to address global crises. We argue that the study of collective behavior must rise to a “crisis discipline” just as medicine, conservation, and climate science have, with a focus on providing actionable insight to policymakers and regulators for the stewardship of social systems.
    Language: English
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    Spatiotemporal patterns of synchronous heavy rainfall events in East Asia during the Baiu season (2021)
    In:  Earth System Dynamics
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-04-22
    Description: Investigating the synchrony and interdependency of heavy rainfall occurrences is crucial to understand the underlying physical mechanisms and reduce physical and economic damages by improved forecasting strategies. In this context, studies utilizing functional network representations have recently contributed to significant advances in the understanding and prediction of extreme weather events. To thoroughly expand on previous works employing the latter framework to the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) system, we focus here on changes in the spatial organization of synchronous heavy precipitation events across the monsoon season (April to August) by studying the temporal evolution of corresponding network characteristics in terms of a sliding window approach. Specifically, we utilize functional climate networks together with event coincidence analysis for identifying and characterizing synchronous activity from daily rainfall estimates between 1998 and 2018. Our results demonstrate that the formation of the Baiu front as a main feature of the EASM is reflected by a double-band structure of synchronous heavy rainfall with two centers north and south of the front. Although the two separated bands are strongly related to either low- or high-level winds which are commonly assumed to be independent, we provide evidence that it is rather their mutual interconnectivity that changes during the different phases of the EASM season in a characteristic way. Our findings shed some new light on the interplay between tropical and extratropical factors controlling the EASM intraseasonal evolution, which could potentially help to improve future forecasts of the Baiu onset in different regions of East Asia.
    Language: English
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    Simulating compound weather extremes responsible for critical crop failure with stochastic weather generators (2021)
    In:  Earth System Dynamics
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-02
    Description: In 2016, northern France experienced an unprecedented wheat crop loss. The cause of this event is not yet fully understood, and none of the most used crop forecast models were able to predict the event (Ben-Ari et al., 2018). However, this extreme event was likely due to a sequence of particular meteorological conditions, i.e. too few cold days in late autumn–winter and abnormally high precipitation during the spring season. Here we focus on a compound meteorological hazard (warm winter and wet spring) that could lead to a crop loss. This work is motivated by the question of whether the 2016 meteorological conditions were the most extreme possible conditions under current climate, and what the worst-case meteorological scenario would be with respect to warm winters followed by wet springs. To answer these questions, instead of relying on computationally intensive climate model simulations, we use an analogue-based importance sampling algorithm that was recently introduced into this field of research (Yiou and Jézéquel, 2020). This algorithm is a modification of a stochastic weather generator (SWG) that gives more weight to trajectories with more extreme meteorological conditions (here temperature and precipitation). This approach is inspired by importance sampling of complex systems (Ragone et al., 2017). This data-driven technique constructs artificial weather events by combining daily observations in a dynamically realistic manner and in a relatively fast way. This paper explains how an SWG for extreme winter temperature and spring precipitation can be constructed in order to generate large samples of such extremes. We show that with some adjustments both types of weather events can be adequately simulated with SWGs, highlighting the wide applicability of the method. We find that the number of cold days in late autumn 2015 was close to the plausible minimum. However, our simulations of extreme spring precipitation show that considerably wetter springs than what was observed in 2016 are possible. Although the relation of crop loss in 2016 to climate variability is not yet fully understood, these results indicate that similar events with higher impacts could be possible in present-day climate conditions.
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    Ripple resonance amplifies economic welfare loss from weather extremes (2021)
    In:  Environmental Research Letters
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    Publication Date: 2022-05-10
    Description: The most complex but potentially most severe impacts of climate change are caused by extreme weather events. In a globally connected economy, damages can cause remote perturbations and cascading consequences—a ripple effect along supply chains. Here we show an economic ripple resonance that amplifies losses when consecutive or overlapping weather extremes and their repercussions interact. This amounts to an average amplification of 21% for climate-induced heat stress, river floods, and tropical cyclones. Modeling the temporal evolution of 1.8 million trade relations between $\gt$7000 regional economic sectors, we find that the regional responses to future extremes are strongly heterogeneous also in their resonance behavior. The induced effect on welfare varies between gains due to increased demand in some regions and losses due to demand or supply shortages in others. Within the current global supply network, the ripple resonance effect of extreme weather is strongest in high-income economies—an important effect to consider when evaluating past and future economic climate impacts.
    Language: English
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    Night Photostimulation of Clearance of Beta-Amyloid from Mouse Brain: New Strategies in Preventing Alzheimer’s Disease (2021)
    In:  Cells
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-01
    Description: The deposition of amyloid-β (Aβ) in the brain is a risk factor for Alzheimer’s disease (AD). Therefore, new strategies for the stimulation of Aβ clearance from the brain can be useful in preventing AD. Transcranial photostimulation (PS) is considered a promising method for AD therapy. In our previous studies, we clearly demonstrated the PS-mediated stimulation of lymphatic clearing functions, including Aβ removal from the brain. There is increasing evidence that sleep plays an important role in Aβ clearance. Here, we tested our hypothesis that PS at night can stimulate Aβ clearance from the brain more effectively than PS during the day. Our results on healthy mice show that Aβ clearance from the brain occurs faster at night than during wakefulness. The PS course at night improves memory and reduces Aβ accumulation in the brain of AD mice more effectively than the PS course during the day. Our results suggest that night PS is a more promising candidate as an effective method in preventing AD than daytime PS. These data are an important informative platform for the development of new noninvasive and nonpharmacological technologies for AD therapy as well as for preventing Aβ accumulation in the brain of people with disorder of Aβ metabolism, sleep deficit, elderly age, and jet lag.
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    Controlling Alzheimer’s Disease Through the Deep Brain Stimulation to Thalamic Relay Cells (2021)
    In:  Frontiers in Computational Neuroscience
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-01
    Description: Experimental and clinical studies have shown that the technique of deep brain stimulation (DBS) plays a potential role in the regulation of Alzheimer’s disease (AD), yet it still desires for ongoing studies including clinical trials, theoretical approach and action mechanism. In this work, we develop a modified thalamo-cortico-thalamic (TCT) model associated with AD to explore the therapeutic effects of DBS on AD from the perspective of neurocomputation. First, the neuropathological state of AD resulting from synapse loss is mimicked by decreasing the synaptic connectivity strength from the Inter-Neurons (IN) neuron population to the Thalamic Relay Cells (TRC) neuron population. Under such AD condition, a specific deep brain stimulation voltage is then implanted into the neural nucleus of TRC in this TCT model. The symptom of AD is found significantly relieved by means of power spectrum analysis and nonlinear dynamical analysis. Furthermore, the therapeutic effects of DBS on AD are systematically examined in different parameter space of DBS. The results demonstrate that the controlling effect of DBS on AD can be efficient by appropriately tuning the key parameters of DBS including amplitude A, period P and duration D. This work highlights the critical role of thalamus stimulation for brain disease, and provides a theoretical basis for future experimental and clinical studies in treating AD.
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    Percolation analysis of the atmospheric structure (2021)
    In:  Physical Review E
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    Publication Date: 2022-06-01
    Description: The atmosphere is a thermo-hydrodynamical complex system and provides oxygen to most animal life at the Earth's surface. However, the detection of complexity for the atmosphere remains elusive and debated. Here we develop a percolation-based framework to explore its structure by using the global air temperature field. We find that the percolation threshold is much delayed compared with the prototypical percolation model and the giant cluster eventually emerges explosively. A finite-size-scaling analysis reveals that the observed transition in each atmosphere layer is genuine discontinuous. Furthermore, at the percolation threshold, we uncover that the boundary of the giant cluster is self-affine, with fractal dimension df, and can be utilized to quantify the atmospheric complexity. Specifically, our results indicate that the complexity of the atmosphere decreases superlinearly with height, i.e., the complexity is higher at the surface than at the top layer and vice versa, due to the atmospheric boundary forcings. The proposed methodology may evaluate and improve our understanding regarding the critical phenomena of the complex Earth system and can be used as a benchmark tool to test the performance of Earth system models.
    Language: English
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    Quantifying Southern Annular Mode paleo-reconstruction skill in a model framework (2021)
    In:  Climate of the Past
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-02
    Description: Past attempts to reconstruct the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) using paleo archives have resulted in records which can differ significantly from one another prior to the window over which the proxies are calibrated. This study attempts to quantify not only the skill with which we may expect to reconstruct the SAM, but also assess the contribution of regional bias in proxy selection and the impact of non-stationary proxy-SAM teleconnections on a resulting reconstruction. This is achieved using a pseudo-proxy framework with output from the CM2.1 global climate model. Reconstructions derived from precipitation fields perform better, with 89 % of reconstructions calibrated over a 61 year window able to reproduce at least 50 % of inter-annual variance in the SAM, as opposed to just 25 % for surface temperature (SAT) derived reconstructions. Non-stationarity of proxy-SAM teleconnections, as defined here, plays a negligible role in reconstructions, however the range in reconstruction skill is not negligible. Reconstructions were most likely to be skilful when proxies are sourced from a geographically broad region, with a network size of 70 proxies.
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    Transcranial Photobiomodulation of Clearance of Beta-Amyloid from the Mouse Brain: Effects on the Meningeal Lymphatic Drainage and Blood Oxygen Saturation of the Brain (2021)
    In:  Oxygen Transport to Tissue XLII | Advances in Experimental Medicine and Biology
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-15
    Description: Here, we demonstrate the therapeutic effects of transcranial photobiomodulation (tPBM, 1267 nm, 32 J/cm2, a 9-day course) in mice with the injected model of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) associated with accumulation of beta-amyloid (Aβ) in the brain resulting in neurocognitive deficit vs. the control group (CG) (the neurological severity score (NNS), AD 3.67 ± 0.58 vs. CG 1.00 ± 0.26%, p 〈 0.05) and mild cerebral hypoxia (AD 72 ± 6% vs. CG 97 ± 2%, p 〈 0.001). The course of tPBM improved neurocognitive status of mice with AD (NNS, AD 2.03 ± 0.14 vs. CG 1.00 ± 0.26, vs. 2.03 ± 0.14, p 〈 0.05) due to stimulation of clearance of Aβ from the brain via the meningeal lymphatic vessels (the immunohistochemical and confocal data) and an increase in blood oxygen saturation of the brain tissues (the pulse oximetry data) till 85 ± 2%, p 〈 0.05. These results open breakthrough strategies for non-pharmacological therapy of AD and clearly demonstrate that tPBM might be a promising therapeutic target for preventing or delaying AD based on stimulation of oxygenation of the brain tissues and activation of clearance of toxic molecules via the cerebral lymphatics.
    Language: English
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    Pigou in the 21st Century: a tribute on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the publication of The Economics of Welfare (2021)
    In:  International Tax and Public Finance
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-06-24
    Description: The year 2020 marks the centennial of the publication of Arthur Cecil Pigou’s magnum opus The Economics of Welfare. Pigou’s pricing principles have had an enduring influence on the academic debate, with a widespread consensus having emerged among economists that Pigouvian taxes or subsidies are theoretically desirable, but politically infeasible. In this article, we revisit Pigou’s contribution and argue that this consensus is somewhat spurious, particularly in two ways: (1) Economists are too quick to ignore the theoretical problems and subtleties that Pigouvian pricing still faces; (2) The wholesale skepticism concerning the political viability of Pigouvian pricing is at odds with its recent practical achievements. These two points are made by, first, outlining the theoretical and political challenges that include uncertainty about the social cost of carbon, the unclear relationship between the cost–benefit and cost-effectiveness approaches, distributional concerns, fragmented ministerial responsibilities, an unstable tax base, commitment problems, lack of acceptance and trust between government and citizens as well as incomplete international cooperation. Secondly, we discuss the recent political success of Pigouvian pricing, as evidenced by the German government’s 2019 climate policy reform and the EU’s Green Deal. We conclude by presenting a research agenda for addressing the remaining barriers that need to be overcome to make Pigouvian pricing a common political practice.
    Language: English
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    Opinion: We need biosphere stewardship that protects carbon sinks and builds resilience (2021)
    In:  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-07-14
    Language: English
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