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  • 1
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    Springer
    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 1-2 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
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  • 2
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 21-34 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J64, J21 ; Key words: Competing risk, youth employment, youth unemployment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. In a large representative sample of young Norwegian workers, we estimate gross transitions to unemployment, education, and other exits in a multinomial logit. In line with received literature, we find that individuals with high education, experience, and income have significantly lower probabilities of job exits. While female education rates have increased to surpass those of males, female labour market outcomes are still more responsive to family related background characteristics as compared with the outcomes for males.
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  • 3
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 57-79 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J61, J24, F22 ; Key words: Return migration, earnings, self-selection
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. We examine the labor market performance of return migrants using the Hungarian Household Panel Survey. Two distinct selection issues are considered in the estimation of the earnings equation; we implement a natural method using MLE. The result that there is a “premium” to work experience abroad for women is robust across the models we considered. For men, the return to working abroad is not generally significant.
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  • 4
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 353-386 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J16, J31, P23 ; Key words: Wage inequality, gender differences, Russian transition
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper examines the gender gap in wages in Russia from 1992 to 1995. It uses data on prime aged men and women from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) and focuses on those living in urban areas. Differences in hours of work appear to explain about one half of the gender differential, but there is still a large differential in average hourly wages between men and women. Observable differences in characteristics between men and women explain almost none of the differential or the changes through time.
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  • 5
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 403-424 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: O41 ; F22 ; Key words: Altruism ; education ; growth ; convergence ; capital mobility
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. The aim of this paper is to discuss the process of regional convergence within the framework of an overlapping generations model in which the engine of growth is the accumulation of human capital. In particular, we consider different education funding systems and compare their performance in terms of growth rates and pace of convergence between two heterogeneous regions. The analysis suggests that the choice of a particular education system incorporates a possible trade-off between long run growth rate and short run convergence. In such choice, the initial capital stock and the extent of regional human capital discrepancy appear as central variables.
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  • 6
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 527-527 
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    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
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  • 7
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 509-525 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J15 ; J31 ; J61 ; N11 ; Key words: United States immigration history
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Early twentieth century observers argued that recent American immigrants were inferior, and in particular less skilled, than the old. I estimate wage equations for 1909 allowing for different effects by nationality and for different characteristics on arrival. I then apply the estimated wage differentials to the immigrant composition to measure the effect of changing composition on immigrant earnings. Finally I ask how immigrant earning power changed relative to that of native Americans. I conclude that immigrant “quality” in terms of earnings did decline due to shifting composition but these effects are very small compared with those reported in studies of the post-second World War period.
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  • 8
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 425-441 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: H21 ; H42 ; I28 ; Key words: Disability pensions ; time consistency ; education policy
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. A link between social insurance and education policy is explored. Due to moral hazard full insurance against disability is not feasible. When high- and low-risk individuals can be identified second-best social insurance system entails cross-subsidies from the low-risk group to the high-risk group. Implementation of this second-best insurance however distorts the human capital investment decisions when education qualifies for a low risk job. Therefore, the second-best social insurance together with an education subsidy is a welfare improving policy. An education policy also has the role of establishing dynamic consistency of the government's policy.
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  • 9
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 465-483 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J61 ; N33 ; R23 ; Key words: Migration ; nineteenth century ; The Netherlands
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. The factors that influenced migration decisions in a nineteenth century rural-traditional area of the Netherlands are assessed. This is done in a micro-setting. Applying a new data set with individual characteristics of both migrants and non-migrants a logit-model is estimated. The analysis supports the revisionist and relatively positive picture of the standard of living in pre-modern rural-traditional areas. Instead of hunger driving the masses away from these areas, it seems to have tied rationally acting people to a socio-economic system that contained buffer mechanisms to cope with short run stresses.
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  • 10
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 529-567 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: C23, C41, D31, I32 ; Key words: Income dynamics, poverty dynamics, income distribution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper is about income and poverty dynamics and their socioeconomic correlates. The first half of the paper aims to establish some of the salient facts for Britain, applying the pioneering methods of Bane and Ellwood (1986). Important for poverty dynamics are changes in labour earnings from persons other than the household head, changes in non-labour income (including benefits), and changes in household composition, in addition to changes in the heads' labour earnings. The second half of the paper is a review and critique of the multivariate modelling frameworks which might be used to explain and forecast these salient facts for Britain or elsewhere.
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  • 11
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 3-19 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: C2, D1, I3 ; Key words: Child labour, luxury axiom, substitution axiom
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper analyses child labour participation and its key determinants using data sets from Peru and Pakistan. The results include tests of the ‘Luxury’ and ‘Substitution’ hypotheses that play key roles in recent studies on child labour and child schooling. The results reject both hypotheses in the context of child labour in Pakistan and suggest that income and related variables do not have the expected negative effect on children's work input. Rising wages of adult female labour in Pakistan, and falling adult male wage in Peru lead to increased participation of children in the labour market. The results on the combined country data formally establish the presence of strong individual country effects in the estimated regressions. For example, ceteris paribus, a Peruvian child is more likely to experience schooling than a Pakistani child. However, both countries agree on the positive role that adult female education and infrastructure investment in basic amenities can play in discouraging child labour and encouraging child schooling.
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  • 12
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 45-55 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J2, J3, J7 ; Key words: Short-term work absence, gender wage gap
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. We use unique information about short-term absence from the labor market among Swedish employees to investigate the potential wage loss attributed to this type of absence. A reform in the Swedish health insurance system was used as an instrument. The results indicate that women's wages are significantly reduced by work absence due to own sickness, while absence to care for a sick child has no significant wage effect. For men, we find no support for effects on wages from short-term absence. We also show that the distribution of the gender wage gap depends to a large extent on work absence.
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  • 13
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 99-112 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J23, J31, J61 ; Key words: Immigrant-cohort size, two-stage CES model, elasticity of complementarity
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper presents a new method of estimating the effects of immigration on the labor market that does not require variations in immigration across cities. With a two-stage CES model that aggregates immigrant groups by age cohorts and aggregates cohorts into effective labor, the econometric estimation and the interpretation of parameters are particularly straightforward. The paper uses data from Hong Kong to estimate the elasticities of complementarity associated with increased immigration. A simulation study indicates that a 40% increase in the stock of new immigrants will lower wages by no more than one percent.
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  • 14
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 81-98 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J62
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. We examine the occupational concentration and mobility of a group of unauthorized Mexican men who received amnesty under IRCA to shed light on the role of legal status in the assimilation process. Initially these men are concentrated in a small number of traditional migrant jobs. Although their occupational mobility rate is high, it partly represents churning through these same occupations. When we consider the direction – either upward or downward – of occupational change, we find that English language ability and the characteristics of the occupation, itself, are strongly correlated with mobility before legalization. After legalization, few characteristics surpass in importance the common experience of having received amnesty.
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  • 15
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 127-146 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: F22, H55 ; Key words: International migration, social security
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper analyzes both the formation of long-run migration incentives and the consequences of a regime change from “autarky” to “free migration” in an overlapping-generations framework with two countries. Under autarky the countries may differ with respect to their aggregate savings rate or with respect to their pension-wage ratio. It is shown that an individual prefers to live in a country where the capital-labor ratio is close to the Golden Rule level and where his characteristics are relatively scarce. Both the migration incentives and the consequences of free migration are determined by these two effects.
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  • 16
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 147-157 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: D61, D64, J22 ; Key words: Altruism, bequests, gifts
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper shows that altruistic parents with utilitarian preferences may fare better if they transfer resources to their children early in life instead of delaying the bulk of transfers until after their death. Moreover, the outcome of the analysed “family transfer game” is not Pareto-efficient in the case of bequests. However, if altruistic parents hold Rawlsian preferences, they will be indifferent between gifts and bequests, and Pareto-efficiency is always obtained. In intermediate cases of Atkinson-type welfare functions, welfare losses of bequests compared to gifts disappear as the aversion to inequality converges to infinity.
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  • 17
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 189-203 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: C25, J13 ; Key words: Fertility, inflated count data models
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. For modeling complete female fertility we propose a zero-and-two-inflated count data model, which accounts for a relative excess of both zero and two children. As the underlying distribution of counts we use the standard Poisson distribution and the more general Gamma count distribution. We compare our proposed model with standard count data models by using data on complete fertilities for a sample of Swedish women. The preferred specification for Swedish fertility data is the zero-and-two inflated Gamma count data model. The estimated “extra” probabilities of zero and two children, when modelled as individual specific probabilities, vary substantially across individuals, with mean of 0.05 and 0.16, respectively. These extra probabilities show that women who formed a family later in life have a higher probability of being childless, and women of our youngest cohort have a higher probability of forming a two-child family.
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  • 18
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 241-261 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: C25, J13, J61 ; Key words: Immigrant fertility, assimilation, disruption
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This study applies count data estimation techniques to investigate the fertility adjustment of immigrants in the destination country. Data on completed fertility are taken from the 1996 wave of the German Socioeconomic Panel (GSOEP). While the economic literature stresses the role of prices and incomes as determinants of fertility, the demographic literature discusses whether assimilation or disruption effects dominate immigrants' fertility after migration. We find evidence in favor of the assimilation model according to which immigrant fertility converges to native levels over time. In addition, we confirm the negative impact of female human capital on fertility outcomes.
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  • 19
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 283-303 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J21, J31 ; Key words: Employment, earnings, transition, labor policy, gender
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Changes in women's relative wages and employment are analyzed, using social security data from Slovenia (1987–1992) and a retrospective labor force survey in Estonia (1989–1994). Estonia adopted liberal labor market policies. Slovenia took an interventionist approach. Nevertheless, relative wages for women rose in both countries. Factors favoring women included: returns to human capital rose in transition, benefiting women; relative labor demand shifted toward predominantly female sectors; low-wage women had a disproportionate incentive to exit the labor market, especially in Estonia. However, women were less mobile across jobs in both countries, so men disproportionately filled new jobs in expanding sectors.
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  • 20
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 35-44 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J64, J65, J68 ; Key words: Unemployment benefits, unemployment durations, Poland
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract: We analyse the unemployment benefit regime change that occurred in Poland in December 1991 using data from the Polish Labour Force Survey. Before December 1991, the entitlement period to unemployment benefits was unlimited. Thereafter, it was reduced to 12 months (with a few exceptions). Using the difference-in-differences approach within a hazard rate framework, we find that the regime change did not have a significant effect on the duration of unemployment. The results thus give credence to the view that the unlimited entitlement period of the old unemployment benefit regime was not the main culprit for the long durations of unemployment in Poland, although the generous eligibility criteria may have contributed to the increase in the incidence of registered unemployment at the beginning of the transition process.
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  • 21
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 163-169 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
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    Topics: Sociology , Economics
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  • 22
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 159-162 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J62 ; Key words: Intergenerational earnings mobility
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. We show that “convergence” to mean earnings in intergenerational earnings mobility models will be a function not only of the single-generation correlation of earnings, but also of the properties of the unobserved stochastic distribution of shocks to earnings.
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  • 23
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 173-188 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: C25, J13 ; Key words: Count data, generalized poisson, hurdle models, underdispersion
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. In this paper it is argued that models for completed fertility have to take into consideration that childless couples and couples with an only child are qualitatively different from couples with two or more children. Indeed, these differences may be the cause of the underdispersion that characterizes completed fertility data. An empirical illustration using Portuguese data suggests that accounting for the qualitative difference between having zero, one, or more children leads to considerable improvements over a model of the type generally used to describe this sort of data.
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 205-220 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: C35 ; Key words: Grouped count data, Poisson regression, excess zeros, sample selection, coital frequency.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Various count data models are applied to data collected from a sample of Norfolk young persons, who were asked how many times they had had sexual intercourse during the previous two-week period. The models take account of the fact that the data are “grouped”, meaning that for some observations, the count is not known exactly but is known to fall in a particular range. Using a formal testing procedure, we find overwhelming evidence of the presence of excess zeros, and this we attribute to the fact that, at any time, a certain proportion of the population are sexually inactive. Our final model contains two equations, the first being the participation equation which determines whether an individual is sexually active, and the second being the frequency equation which determines the count, conditional on being active. Age, gender, salary, occupational status, marital status and type of living environment all have interesting effects on either participation or frequency. Since a significant proportion of the original sample declined to reveal coital frequency, we address the potential problem of selection bias by including a Heckman-type correction term during the model selection process.
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 443-462 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classifications: D72 ; I28 ; J18 ; Key words: Pensions ; education ; aging
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper studies the relationship between public education and pay-as-you-go social security in a representative democracy, where the government reacts both to voting and lobbying activities of workers and pensioners. While an intergenerational conflict prevails concerning actual social security contributions, workers may prefer public education for its positive effect on later pension benefits. Population aging diminishes the relative lobbying power of pensioners, leading to a higher contribution rate, educational expansion, and higher per capita income growth.
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 485-508 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: F22 ; O15 ; O19 ; Key words: Migration ; international migration ; developing countries
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Empirical research on the determinants of emigration from the LDCs has so far given little emphasis to the complex relationship of development and migration. Since the beginning of the 1990s several arguments have been put forth which hint at the possibility that in the early stages of development economic progress might lead to more migration, even if income differentials to the potential destination regions decrease. This paper presents these arguments and tests them for the case of migration to Germany from 86 Asian and African countries from 1981 to 1995. The results confirm the importance of financial restrictions on migration, migration networks, and changes in the societal structure of the sending countries as well as the existence of a home preference. The estimations also control for the political situation in the home countries and for institutional measures in the host country.
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 569-594 
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    Keywords: JEL classification: I38, J13 ; Key words: Welfare, abortion, fertility
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Even before the 1996 overhaul of the U.S. welfare system, a number of states had ended the practice of paying extra benefits to families who have additional children while receiving welfare. Proponents believe that this reform can reduce births to recipients, however many worry that it may encourage women to obtain abortions. Using a sample of unmarried AFDC recipients from the NLSY, we estimate a bivariate probit model of pregnancy and, conditional on becoming pregnant, the probability of abortion. Our results lend some support for the proposition that reducing incremental AFDC benefits will decrease pregnancies without increasing abortions.
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 639-645 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: 43 ; Key words: Social discount rate, overlapping generations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. The observed practice of discounting the future should not be rationalised on the grounds of myopia or selfishness. A positive rate of pure time preference is necessary to ensure that heterogeneous generations are treated in an egalitarian fashion. A zero social discount rate would yield intertemporal allocations which are biased against the current generations. Endogenous productivity growth requires that the social discount rate be set above the subjective rate of pure time preference. Positive social time preference, far from discriminating against future generations, is essential for a fairer intertemporal allocation of resources.
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    Keywords: JEL classification: D19, H31, J22 ; Key words: Labor supply, taxation, microeconometrics, cross-country analysis
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper employs a microeconometric framework to examine the labor supply responses and the welfare effects from replacing current tax systems in Italy, Norway and Sweden by a flat tax on total income. The flat tax rates are determined so that the tax revenues are equal to the revenues as of 1992. The flat tax rates vary from 23 per cent in Italy, 25 per cent in Norway, to 29 per cent in Sweden. In all three countries the labor supply responses decline sharply with pre-reform disposable income. The results show that the efficiency costs of the current tax systems relative to a flat tax may be rather high in Norway and much lower, but positive, in Italy and Sweden. In all three countries “rich” households – defined by their pre-tax-reform income – tend to benefit (in terms of welfare) more than “poor” households. In Italy and Sweden a majority will lose from a shift to a flat tax, while in Norway a majority is predicted to win.
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 113-126 
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    Keywords: JEL classification: D64, E13, F22 ; Key words: International migration, altruism, overlapping generations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper investigates the effect of altruism on the pattern of labour migration in a two-country overlapping generations model. We show that differences in degrees of altruism across countries lead to bilateral migration flows. Starting from the autarkic steady-state equilibrium, restrictions on labour migration are relaxed. In temporary post-migration equilibrium factor prices are equal across countries. We then characterize the unique stable steady-state equilibrium: both countries are populated and this equilibrium is not a Pareto improvement. Some individuals prefer to live in autarky, others in an integrated world economy.
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 171-172 
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 221-239 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: C35, J13, J20 ; Key words: Hurdle count data model, fertility, female employment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. The main concern of this paper is to analyze the effects of female employment status on the presence and number of children in households in the Netherlands. For this purpose a hurdle count data model is formulated and estimated by the generalized method of moments. The hurdle takes explicitly into account the interrelationship between female employment status and timing of first birth. The number of children, once children are present in the household, is modeled conditional on female employment status. The empirical results show that female employment status is a major determinant of the presence and number of children in households: employed women schedule children later in life and have fewer children compared to nonemployed women, holding educational attainment constant. After controlling for female employment status, the educational attainment of both the woman and the man in the households are found to have relatively small effects on the presence and number of children.
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 279-281 
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 305-329 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J16, J31, J71, P23 ; Key words: Gender gap, earnings, Urban China
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. The gender wage gap and its development in urban China is analysed utilising two large scale surveys covering 10 provinces for the years 1988 and 1995. The results indicate that from an international perspective, the gender wage gap in urban China appears to be relatively small. It is, however, increasing. Decompositions based on estimated regression-models show that somewhat less than half of the average gender wage gap can be attributed to differences in variables but much less of its increase. The earnings situation of young women and women with limited education has especially deteriorated if compared to men having the same characteristics.
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 387-401 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: E10 ; O40 ; O41 ; F43 ; Key words: Growth ; education ; inequality ; overlapping generations
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper examines interactions between education policy and growth. The analysis is carried out in an OLG model with two types of individuals: skilled and unskilled. An increase in public education reduces private costs of education, increases the proportion of skilled individuals, and tends to promote growth. On the other hand, education spending crowds out physical capital and reduces learning-by-doing. A marginal increase in the education subsidy can lower growth. It is yet shown that pure public education maximizes the long-run growth rate. Importantly, a partial subsidy to education can result in lower growth than pure private education.
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 263-278 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: C2, D1 ; Key words: Fertility, non altruistic model, count data
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. In this paper we present a non altruistic model of demand for children in the presence of uncertainty about children's survival. Children are seen as assets, as they provide help during old age. Theoretical predictions relating to the change in the mean and variance of the survival rate are derived. The empirical analysis is based on data from the Human Development of India (HDI) survey. Different models for count data variables, such as Poisson and hurdle models have been employed in the empirical analysis. The results highlight the importance of the uncertainty about children's survival in determining parental choices. This shows that realized or expected children's death is not the only link between fertility decision and children's mortality. The policy implications of such findings are briefly discussed.
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    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 331-352 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J16, J71, P20 ; Key words: Gender wage differentials, discrimination, China's economic reform
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    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. China's economic reform has affected various ownership sectors to different degree. A comparison of gender wage differentials and discrimination among individuals employed in the three sectors – state sector, the collective sector, and the private sector – provides information on the impact of economic reform. Two Chinese data sets from Shanghai and Jinan are used to examine the gender wage gap across the three sectors. It is found that privatization/marketization of the economy leads to larger wage differentials as human capital characteristics are more appropriately rewarded. Both data sets show that the relative share of discrimination in the overall gender wage differential declines substantially across ownership sectors from the state to the private. The increase in gender wage differential due to marketization is much larger than any increase in differential that may arise from more gender discrimination.
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: D82, L51, H21 ; Key words: Mechanism design, asymmetric information, optimal income taxation
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    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper analyses how governments should tax labour income accruing to a group of highly skilled and geographically mobile individuals who divide their time or career between several jurisdictions. The analysis differs from previous models on migration and taxation by addressing optimal regulation when agents work for several principals. Optimal taxation is developed for social welfare functions with exogenous and endogenous welfare weights. Marginal income taxes are applied for screening purposes, and the rates are lower with endogenous than with exogenous welfare weights.
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    ISSN: 1573-2975
    Keywords: development policy ; environment management ; ethnic minorities ; Forest Land Allocation ; slash-and-burn ; uplands ; Vietnam
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Sociology
    Notes: Abstract Vietnam, in the ongoing transition to market economies, has to cope with high rural poverty and a dramatic process of forest loss and environment degradation, particularly in the mountainous regions. The government considers rural poverty as the main cause of environment degradation, associated with slash-and-burn cultivation and to an unclear definition of property rights on forest land. In 1993, the government launched a Forest Land Allocation programme aiming to lease forest lands to individual households and, on this basis, to solve food security problems, halt the increasing environment degradation and preserve the remaining forests. To evaluate the results of this land reform policy, two upland pilot communes have been intensively monitored. The environmental and economic impacts of the forest land reform allocation in the two study areas are presented, after providing a background on the Vietnamese situation of mountain zones. On the basis of these findings, it is discussed as to whether the current forest land allocation process may actually promote local development and natural resources conservation, and under what conditions. Deforestation problems must be tackled also with new macroeconomic policies (e.g. credit programmes to support sustainable agriculture practices) and social policy (e.g. reduction of demographic pressure), together with the reform of the State institutions (e.g. State Forest Enterprises) involved in management of the forest areas.
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    Environment, development and sustainability 2 (2000), S. 165-166 
    ISSN: 1573-2975
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Sociology
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    Environment, development and sustainability 2 (2000), S. 173-176 
    ISSN: 1573-2975
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    Environment, development and sustainability 2 (2000), S. 143-164 
    ISSN: 1573-2975
    Keywords: assurance bonds ; ecological tax reform ; optimal and maximum sustainable scale ; sustainable development ; tradeable permits
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Sociology
    Notes: Abstract Ecological tax reform involves the utilisation of the tax system to facilitate sustainable development. The generally accepted approach to ecological tax reform is to reduce tax rates on income and labour and to impose Pigouvian taxes on resource use and pollution emissions. While this approach is a vast improvement on current tax systems, it is an inadequate means of achieving sustainable development because it relies exclusively on the manipulation of market prices – an allocation instrument – when ecological sustainability is a throughput problem that requires a separate policy instrument to be adequately resolved. With the aid of a linear throughput representation of the economic process, it is argued that conventional ecological tax reform measures promote just two of the five behavioural modes put forward to achieve sustainable development. In order to promote all five behavioural modes, it is argued that ecological tax reform is best conducted with the incorporation of tradeable resource use permits and assurance bonds.
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    Environment, development and sustainability 2 (2000), S. 227-234 
    ISSN: 1573-2975
    Keywords: ethnobotany ; rural communities ; Cabo Delgado
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Sociology
    Notes: Abstract Communities in Cabo Delgado have a long tradition of using medicinal plants. In Mozambique, rural populations in general are highly dependent on natural resources. One example is the use of surrounding vegetation by people from Cabo Delgado. They use plants for food, handicrafts, construction, as a primary energy source and even for medicine purposes. In this survey, we examined the diversity of plant usage for medicinal purposes by 146 individuals, including adults and youth living in the Cabo Delgado province. This community quoted 16 species of plants, belonging to 13 families. Utilisation by different categories of people based on sex and age was compared and differences were found among some groups. In general, older people show a deeper knowledge of medicinal plants than younger people. Men and women show similar knowledge of medicinal plants.
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    ISSN: 1573-7810
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Sociology
    Notes: Abstract This study uses aggregate data on a large number of the world's societies to test three theories of fertility decline in the modern world and in the original demographic transition. One prominent theory relates fertility decline to the changing economic value of children. With industrialization and overall modernization the economic value of children's labor shifts from positive to negative. This interpretation has been challenged by those who claim that the flow of wealth in preindustrial societies is always from parent to child rather than from child to parent. An alternative interpretation is that fertility levels reflect people's efforts to promote their reproductive success, and that this requires the careful tracking of infant and child mortality. Fertility rates are adjusted to the rate of infant and child survival, and will be high when survival rates are low and low when survival rates are high. A third theory emphasizes female empowerment. Fertility will be high when women are highly subordinated to men, but as women gain more autonomy and control over their own lives they reduce their fertility levels because, among other possibilities, higher levels of fertility present them with serious burdens. We tested all three theories through multiple regression analyses performed on two samples of societies, the first a large sample of the world's nation-states during the period between 1960 and 1990, and the second a sample of now-developed societies between 1880 and 1940. Our findings showed that infant mortality was an excellent predictor of fertility, and that female empowerment was a good predictor. However, there was only weak support for the argument that the economic value of children's labor plays an important role in fertility decisions. The findings were discussed in the context of a broader interpretation of fertility behavior in societies with high levels of industrialization and modernization.
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    Population and environment 22 (2000), S. 73-81 
    ISSN: 1573-7810
    Keywords: r-K theory ; race differences ; sexual behavior ; AIDS
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Sociology
    Notes: Abstract Differences between blacks and whites in sexual behavior posited in Rushton's theory of r-K race differences were examined in the United States in an analysis of the annual surveys of the National Opinion Research Center for 1990–1996. This data set was analysed for black-white differences in numbers of sexual partners during the last 5 years and for frequency of sexual intercourse. The general pattern of the results was for blacks to report more sexual partners than whites and for black males to report greater frequency of sexual intercourse, consistent with Rushton's theory. This result has implications for the control of the AIDS epidemic and for the demographic transition among blacks.
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    Population and environment 22 (2000), S. 109-153 
    ISSN: 1573-7810
    Keywords: multiple-scale ; integrated assessment ; societal metabolism ; sustainability ; bio-economics ; environmental loading
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Sociology
    Notes: Abstract In this paper we present several concepts related to integrated analysis of societal metabolism across scales. First we introduce the concept of “dynamic energy budget” of human societies, which is based on the distinction between exosomatic and endosomatic energy flows and the possibility of establishing autocatalytic loops (egg-chicken patterns) among them. Second, we discuss the nature of the dramatic changes that the industrial revolution induced on the characteristics of societal metabolism. Finally, we discuss methodological problems related to the representation of complex adaptive systems. Dealing with sustainability of human societies requires the parallel use of non-equivalent descriptive domains. This, in turn, requires the ability of “scaling up and down” when moving across levels handling parallel non-reducible assessments.
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    Population and environment 22 (2000), S. 83-89 
    ISSN: 1573-7810
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Sociology
    Notes: Abstract Taboo: Why Black Athletes Dominate Sports and Why We're Afraid to Talk About It. Jon Entine. New York: PublicAffairs, 2000. ix + 397 pages.
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    Population and environment 22 (2000), S. 211-254 
    ISSN: 1573-7810
    Keywords: societal metabolism ; labor productivity ; sustainability ; bio-economic pressure ; integrated assessment
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Sociology
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents empirical data to validate two points. (1) An integrated analysis of societal metabolism bridges an economic view of changes in socioeconomic systems with a biophysical representation of them. To obtain this check, it compares a biophysical indicator of development BEP with 24 traditional indicators of material economic development. The comparison covers a sample of 107 countries of the world, comprising more than 90% of the total world population (year 1993). (2) The concept of societal metabolism is useful to make biophysical analysts aware of constraints implied by “economic viability” and to make economic analysts aware of constraints implied by “biophysical viability.” To prove this point three practical examples of misunderstanding in the field of sustainability analysis are discussed.
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    Population and environment 21 (2000), S. 477-508 
    ISSN: 1573-7810
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Sociology
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    Population and environment 21 (2000), S. 539-563 
    ISSN: 1573-7810
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Sociology
    Notes: Abstract At the time of entry into the U.S., immigrants are required to identify their ’intended’ destination to INS officials. They are not, however, required to remain in that location. If immigrant settlement patterns represent an evolutionary, dynamic system, it is likely that immigrants will adjust their location in the period shortly after arrival in the U.S. in response to various factors, leading to an ‘initial’ settlement system. Of interest in the following paper are the scale, direction and magnitude of adjustments made to the immigrant settlement system in the period shortly after arrival. The analysis utilizes the 1990 5 percent Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) and the 1985–90 Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) Public Use Tapes in order to explore the intended and initial (observed) settlement patterns of recent (1985–90) immigrants and to comment upon the applicability of these terms. Results indicate that the two settlement patterns are highly similar, despite apparently high levels of movement among recent arrivals. The analysis also touches upon the ‘come to stay’ question raised by Ellis and Wright (1998a), suggesting that the interpretation of the question is dependent upon immigrant status rather than when immigrants first arrived in the U.S.
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    Population and environment 22 (2000), S. 63-71 
    ISSN: 1573-7810
    Keywords: overpopulation ; democracy
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Sociology
    Notes: Abstract This article addresses increasing concerns about the decline of democracy at all levels of government. It is shown that overpopulation and technology are major causes of this decline. It would be unwise to try to stop the development of technology; therefore it is urgent that we move quickly to address the problems of overpopulation.
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    Population and environment 22 (2000), S. 43-62 
    ISSN: 1573-7810
    Keywords: wildlife conservation ; national parks
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Sociology
    Notes: Abstract In this paper the National Park policies of the two Himalayan Kingdoms of Nepal and Bhutan are put in a complementary perspective. It aims at investigating the effects of national parks, established by initiatives based on a global discourse having evolved from economically developed countries, on food sufficiency and economic security of the people living in these protected areas. The history and socio-economic perspectives of these policies in general and recently emerging wildlife problems in particular are highlighted. The administrative and financial capacities of both countries turn out not to be adequate to meet emerging stress in the sphere of protecting nature, and wildlife in particular. To meet the goal of integrating prospects of human survival and the conservation of habitats for rare plants and animals locally accepted and appropriate ways of management have to be developed. The management of protected areas in Nepal and Bhutan shows a rather poor capacity or a low degree of acceptance on the side of government administration. The daily life of farmers in protected areas is threatened either by policing or abundance of wildlife and inadequate measures to assist the local population to overcome the shortcomings of nature conservation administration. Compensation schemes for wildlife damages, for instance, could be a helpful instrument to meet ambitious schemes to protect nature and relief the local population in remote areas of least developed countries, where means to make a living from other than subsistence farming are not easily available.
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    ISSN: 1573-7810
    Keywords: multiple-scale ; integrated assessment ; societal metabolism ; sustainability ; environmental loading
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Sociology
    Notes: Abstract The crucial challenge for integrated analyses of socioeconomic systems is keeping coherence in their multidimensional representation. Our approach describes the hierarchical structure of socioeconomic systems using the profile of allocation of “human activity” over a set of compartments defined at different hierarchical levels (e.g., whole countries, economic sectors, individual households). Compartments are characterized in terms of intensive variables (“intensity” of both “exosomatic energy flows” and “added value flows” per unit of human activity) and the extensive variable “Total Human Activity” ← → “population.” In this way, relations of congruence across hierarchical levels can be used to link non-equivalent analyses. That is, changes in demographic variables, economic variables, technical coefficients, indices of environmental loading, institutional settings, and social aspirations are no longer independent of each-other even if described within different scientific disciplines.
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    Population and environment 22 (2000), S. 3-41 
    ISSN: 1573-7810
    Keywords: collapse ; complexity ; problem solving ; organizations ; sustainability
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Sociology
    Notes: Abstract Sustainability or collapse follow from the success or failure of problem-solving institutions. The factors that lead to long-term success or failure in problem solving have received little attention, so that this fundamental activity is poorly understood. The capacity of institutions to solve problems changes over time, suggesting that a science of problem solving, and thus a science of sustainability, must be historical. Complexity is a primary problem-solving strategy, which is often successful in the short-term, but cumulatively may become detrimental to sustainability. Historical case studies illustrate different outcomes to long-term development of complexity in problem solving. These cases clarify future options for contemporary societies: collapse, simplification, or increasing complexity based on increasing energy subsidies.
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    Population and environment 22 (2000), S. 89-94 
    ISSN: 1573-7810
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Sociology
    Notes: Abstract From Voting to Violence: Democratization and Nationalist Conflict. Jack Snyder. New York, NY: Norton, 2000. 382 pages.
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    Population and environment 21 (2000), S. 315-338 
    ISSN: 1573-7810
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    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Sociology
    Notes: Abstract Demographers usually study population and environment in preindustrial settings where “environment” means food, forest, or land. California, in contrast, is an advanced industrial state with rapid population growth and complex environmental stresses. In this paper I examine the effects of population growth on carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone, the principal ingredient of smog. Ozone and CO are monitored at numerous local sites throughout California. Wind currents are strong, so the level of ozone or CO at a site may depend on population size and other factors upwind as well as at that site. I use longitudinal data for a sample of sites to estimate panel models of trends in ozone and CO. Population growth is measured at three levels: site, county, and upwind; and trends in per capita income and air pollution regulations are controlled. Local population growth has a substantial impact on CO; in contrast, population growth at any level has a very small or even negative impact on ozone. The methodological and policy implications of this implausible finding are discussed.
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    Population and environment 21 (2000), S. 413-425 
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    Population and environment 21 (2000), S. 473-476 
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    Population and environment 21 (2000), S. 565-580 
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    Notes: Abstract This research offers an examination of environmental attitudes, concern, and behaviors among individuals presently living within the context producing contemporary American environmental awareness, but who originated from contexts socially, environmentally, and economically distinct. More specifically, data from the 1993 environmental module of the General Social Survey are used to examine variations in environmental awareness across native-and foreign-born individuals. Results suggest that immigrants living in the U.S. do, indeed, express similarattitudes toward environmental issues as compared to native-born residents. However, shorter-term immigrants (those residing abroad at age 16) in particular express significantly higher levels ofconcern with regard to environmental problems as compared to native-born residents. In addition, shorter-term immigrants are more likely to engage in “environmentally friendly” behaviors as compared to native-born residents, although they appear less likely to have signed an environmentally oriented petition.
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    Theory and decision 49 (2000), S. 127-150 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: Uncertainty ; Random in a broad sense phenomena ; Statistical regularity ; Principle of guaranteed result ; Optimality criterion choice
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    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract It is shown that the uncertainty connected with a `random in a broad sense' (not necessarily stochastic) event always has some `statistical regularity' (SR) in the form of a family of finite-additive probability distributions. The specific principle of guaranteed result in decision making is introduced. It is shown that observing this principle of guaranteed result leads to determine the one optimality criterion corresponding to a decision system with a given `statistical regularity'.
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    Theory and decision 49 (2000), S. 235-248 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: Coordination games ; Stability sets ; Risk-dominance ; Equilibrium selection
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    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract We calculate the Lebesgue–measures of the stability sets of Nash-equilibria in pure coordination games. The results allow us to observe that the ordering induced by the Lebesgue–measure of stability sets upon strict Nash-equilibria does not necessarily agree with the ordering induced by risk–dominance. Accordingly, an equilibrium selection theory based on the Lebesgue–measure of stability sets would be necessarily different from one which uses the Nash-property as a point of orientation.
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    Theory and decision 49 (2000), S. 79-96 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: Field of coincidence of opinions ; Allais' paradox
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    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract It is always possible to construct a real function φ, given random quantities X and Y with continuous distribution functions F and G, respectively, in such a way that φ(X) and φ(Y), also random quantities, have both the same distribution function, say H. This result of De Finetti introduces an alternative way to somehow describe the `opinion' of a group of experts about a continuous random quantity by the construction of Fields of coincidence of opinions (FCO). A Field of coincidence of opinions is a finite union of intervals where the opinions of the experts coincide with respect to that quantity of interest. We speculate on (dis)advantages of Fields of Opinion compared to usual `probability' measures of a group and on their relation with a continuous version of the well-known Allais' paradox.
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    Theory and decision 48 (2000), S. 1-46 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: Decision science ; Group decision support system (GDSS) ; Group decision and negotiation support system (GDNSS) ; Managerial decision-making ; Analytic methods
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The focus here is on analytical and instrumental requirements for those collective decision exercises that lend themselves to a judgment-driven resolution. These have not as yet received much concerted technical attention from either of the two main movements in the field. They remain somewhere beyond the purview of the objectively-predicated instruments that mainstream GDSS (Group Decision Support System) designs tend to favour. Yet neither are they so inherently ill-structured as the situations with which the GDNSS (Group Decision and Negotiation Support System) community is concerned, these usually allowing only a subjectively-predicated, compromisive or consensus-based conclusion. If the technical requirements peculiar to judgment-driven decision exercises are to be well met, it will be through the offices of analytical instruments that can help assure the rationality of the resolutions at which they arrive. The primary purpose of these pages is to offer some suggestions about the types of analytical instruments that might serve this end.
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    Theory and decision 48 (2000), S. 179-191 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: Coase theorem ; Coalitional stability ; Zeuthen-Harsanyi bargaining process ; Harsanyi-Aumann doctrine
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    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The Coase theorem is argued to be incompatible with bargaining set stability due to a tension between the grand coalition and sub-coalitions. We provide a counter-intuitive argument to demonstrate that the Coase theorem may be in complete consonance with bargaining set stability. We establish that an uncertainty concerning the formation of sub-coalitions will explain such compatibility: each agent fears that others may `gang up' against him and this fear forces the agents to negotiate. The grand coalition emerges from the negotiations if each agent uses the principle of equal relative sacrifice to determine the actual allocation. We also establish the rational basis for the choice of the principle of equal relative concession by the negotiating agents. Hence we argue that the Coase theorem will be valid even if there are stable sub-coalitions.
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    Theory and decision 48 (2000), S. 123-128 
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    Theory and decision 48 (2000), S. 287-304 
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    Keywords: Choice function ; Maximal elements ; Rationality
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    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract On analyzing the problem that arises whenever the set of maximal elements is large, and a selection is then required (see Peris & Subiza 1998), we realize that logical ways of selecting among maximals violate the classical notion and axioms of rationality. We arrive at the same conclusion if we analyze solutions to the problem of choosing from a tournament (where maximal elements do not necessarily exist). So, in our opinion the notion of rationality must be discussed, not only in the traditional sense of external conditions (Sen 1993), but in terms of the internal information provided by the binary relation.
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    Theory and decision 48 (2000), S. 241-262 
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    Keywords: Choice ; Choice behavior ; Rationality ; Rationalizability ; Nonrational choice behavior ; Nonrationalizable choice behavior
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper shows how alternative, culturally-determined motivational forces can be substituted for self-interest or rationality in the theory of choice. Several possibilities are considered, including the replacement of preference optimization by such propellants as the selection of the `second best' or the `central' option. It is argued that although all choice behavior, even that consistent with the alternatives considered, can ultimately be understood as satisfying the criterion of rationality, richer and more meaningful explanation is obtained by focusing on culturally significant alternative motivations when the latter turn out, in particular environments, to be more important than self-interest.
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    Theory and decision 48 (2000), S. 319-322 
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    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The Independence postulate links current preferences between called-off acts with current preferences between constant acts. Under the assumption that the chance-events used in compound von Neumann-Morgenstern lotteries are value-neutral, current preferences between these constant acts are linked to current preferences between hypothetical acts, conditioned by those chance events. Under an assumption of stability of preferences over time, current preferences between these hypothetical acts are linked to future preferences between what are then and there constant acts. Here, I show that a failure of Independence with respect to current preferences leads to an inconsistency in sequential decisions. Two called-off acts are constructed such that each is admissible in the same sequential decision and yet one is strictly preferred to the other. This responds to a question regarding admissibility posed by Rabinowicz ([2000] Preference stability and substitution of indifferents: A rejoinder to Seidenfeld, Theory and Decision 48: 311–318 [this issue]).
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    Theory and decision 48 (2000), S. 383-407 
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    Keywords: Dominant-strategy equilibria ; Judging intentions ; Middle-Bronze Age diplomacy ; One and two-sided incomplete-information games ; Strategic uncertainty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This article presents four analyses of an interaction between the middle-Bronze Age Pharaoh Nibmuarea and the Babylonian king Kadashman-Enlil as described in the Amarna letters (Moran [1992] The Amarna Letters, The Johns Hopkins Universiy Press, Baltimore, Maryland). Intent on denying the Pharaoh his daughter in marriage, the Babylonian king was faced with the choice of sending messengers who could (''dignitaries'') or could not identify (''non-dignitaries'') his missing sister in the Pharaoh's court. Intent on marrying the king's daughter, the Pharaoh was faced with the choice of showing the sister or showing someone else. Based on the assumption of complete information (game 1), the analysis revealed a dominant-strategy equilibrium: Nibmuarea shows the sister and Kadashman-Enlil sends non-dignitaries. Based on the assumption of one-sided incomplete information (Pharaoh's misperception; game 2), the analysis revealed that the Pharaoh had a dominant strategy of showing the sister irrespective of whether the king is keen or reluctant to learn about his sister's fate. Based on the assumption of one-sided incomplete information (Kadashman-Enlil's misperception; game 3), the analysis revealed that if non-dignitaries are sent, the Pharaoh prefers showing someone other than his sister. Based on the assumption of two-sided incomplete information (game 4), the Pharaoh finds it more beneficial to present the sister irrespective of whether his intentions are genuine or feigned. With incomplete information, it is difficult to judge the other's intentions; the cost of being caught cheating by not showing the sister to knowledgeable messengers was quite high. These analyses highlight the strategic uncertainty that characterized this Bronze-Age interaction.
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    Theory and decision 49 (2000), S. 159-174 
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    Keywords: Revealed preference ; Choice space ; Expected utility ; Linear utility ; Continuity condition
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This essay gives necessary and sufficient conditions for recovering expected utility from choice behavior in several popular models of uncertainty. In particular, these techniques handle a finite state model; a model for which the choice space consists of probability densities and the expected utility representation requires bounded, measurable utility; and a model for which the choice space consists of Borel probability measures and the expected utility representation requires bounded, continuous utility. The key result is the identification of the continuity condition necessary for the revelation of linear utility.
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  • 72
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: College administrators ; Escalation behavior ; Measurement models ; Structural equation models ; Sunk costs
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Escalation behavior occurs when individual decision-makers repeatedly invest time, money, and other resources into a failing project. A conceptual model of escalation behavior based on project, organizational, social and psychological forces was developed, and a 75-item measurement instrument was constructed to assess the various dimensions. The model was tested using data collected from a random sample of North Carolina Community College administrators. A LISREL measurement model analysis provided support for the four escalation forces. Two structural models were tested, leading to support for a mediational model for escalation behavior. The most important contributor to Escalation was the Psychological force.
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    Theory and decision 49 (2000), S. 249-287 
    ISSN: 1573-7187
    Keywords: Majority voting ; Preference extension rule ; Lexicographic order
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract We characterize two lexicographic-type preference extension rules from a set X to the set Ψ of all orders on this set. Elements of X are interpreted as basic economic policy decisions, whereas elements of Ψ are conceived as political programs among which a collectivity has to choose through majority voting. The main axiom is called tournament-consistency, and states that whenever majority pairwise comparisons based on initial preferences on X define an order on X, then this order is also chosen by a majority among all other orders in Ψ. Tournament-consistency thus allows to predict the outcome of majority voting upon orders from the knowledge of majority preferences on their components.
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    Theory and decision 49 (2000), S. 395-396 
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    Theory and decision 49 (2000), S. 223-234 
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    Keywords: Utility of chance ; Elaborated outcomes ; Axiomatised expected utility theory ; Representation theorem
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Expected utility theory does not directly deal with the utility of chance. It has been suggested in the literature (Samuelson, 1952, Markowitz, 1959) that this can be remedied by an approach which explicitly models the emotional consequences which give rise to the utility of chance. We refer to this as the elaborated outcomes approach. It is argued that the elaborated outcomes approach destroys the possibility of deriving a representation theorem based on the usual axioms of expected utility theory. This is shown with the help of an example due to Markowitz. It turns out that the space of conceivable lotteries over elaborated outcomes is too narrow to permit the application of the axioms. Moreover it is shown that a representation theorem does not hold for the example.
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    Theory and decision 49 (2000), S. 375-393 
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    Keywords: Bargaining games ; Identity-dependent externalities ; Resale
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    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract We study the one-seller/two-buyer bargaining problem with negative identity-dependent externalities with an alternating offer bargaining model in which new owners of the object have the opportunity of resale. We identify the generically unique subgame perfect equilibrium outcome. The resale opportunity increases the competition among the buyers and therefore benefits the seller. When competition between buyers is very fierce, the seller may prefer to respond to bids rather than to propose an offer herself: a first-mover disadvantage.
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    Theory and decision 49 (2000), S. 197-222 
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    Keywords: Trust ; Indirect evolution ; Signaling ; Incomplete contracts ; Intrinsic motivation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract If contracts cannot be fully specified Pareto optimal results may be closed off because individuals cannot rationally trust each other's promises. This paper assumes that human individuals can become internally committed not to act opportunistically and that others can detect to a certain extent whether they are dealing with an uncommitted (untrustworthy) or a committed (trustworthy) partner. Adopting an `indirect evolutionary approach' we show that co-operative commitments can survive in evolutionary competition even if conventional mechanisms like repetition, reputation, contract or promising are lacking. If detection of uncommitted individuals is neither too costly nor too unreliable there will in general be a `niche' for both committed and uncommitted actors even in one off large numbers' interactions.
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    Theory and decision 49 (2000), S. 313-338 
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    Keywords: Solvability ; Non-additive probabilities ; Strategic games ; Nash equlibrium
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper studies how the introduction of non-additive probabilities (capacities) affects the solvability of strategic games.
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    Theory and decision 48 (2000), S. 47-60 
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    Keywords: Generalized sharing ; Team size ; Moral hazard ; Efficiency
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract We first show that the Generalized Sharing mechanism which is exhaustive, allows a team of identical members voluntarily supplying the observable effort to attain Pareto efficient production under increasing returns provided team size is allowed to vary. We then show that where true effort is imperfectly observable (moral hazard) Pareto efficient production under nonconstant returns to scale is still attainable by varying team size.
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    Theory and decision 48 (2000), S. 101-122 
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    Keywords: Reduction ; Social Science ; Laws ; Supervenience
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Many have felt that it is impossible to defend autonomous laws of social science: where the regularities upheld are law-like it is argued that they are not at base social scientific, and where the phenomena to be explained would seem to require social descriptions, it is argued that laws governing the phenomena are unavailable at that level. But is it possible to develop an ontology that supports the dependence of the social on the physical, while nonetheless supporting the explanatory power of genuinely autonomous social scientific laws? The aim of this paper is to show that reductive explanation is not a requirement of a `naturalist' ontology, thereby defending an account of supervenience as a suitable framework within which to recognize a metaphysical relationship between the natural and the social that is consistent with the pursuit of autonomous nomological social scientific explanations.
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    Theory and decision 48 (2000), S. 263-286 
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    Keywords: Information ; Non-expected utility ; Dynamic consistency ; Randomization ; Anxiety
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    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for a dynamically consistent agent always to prefer more informative signals (in single-agent problems). These conditions do not imply recursivity, reduction or independence. We provide a simple definition of dynamically consistent behavior, and we discuss whether an intrinsic information lover (say, an anxious person) is likely to be dynamically consistent.
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    Theory and decision 49 (2000), S. 291-295 
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    Keywords: Decision theory ; Paradoxes of infinity
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    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The Barrett and Arntzenius (1999) decision paradox involves unbounded wealth, the relationship between period-wise and sequence-wise dominance, and an infinite-period split-minute setting. A version of their paradox involving bounded (in fact, constant) wealth decisions is presented, along with a version involving no decisions at all. The common source of paradox in Barrett–Arntzenius and these other examples is the indeterminacy of their infinite-period split-minute setting.
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    Theory and decision 49 (2000), S. 339-360 
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    Keywords: Human activity systems ; Decision analysis ; Decision settings ; Organizational discrepancies ; Methodology ; Systems design ; Information requirement ; Non-programmable decisions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The paper describes a methodology to be used for analysis and design of human activity systems. The methodology is based on an analysis of the decision settings whereas most other decision analysis methodologies are analysing the process. The decision concept is analysed and discussed. A distinction between programmed and programmable as well as non-programmed and non-programmable decisions is proposed. A classification of different information types for decision making is presented. A methodology based on a systemic and systematic analysis of the information requirements of an organization is proposed. This methodology also indicates organizational discrepancies and information imbalances. The methodology focuses the settings of the decisions on all levels of organizations. The methodology can be regarded as a dynamic, learning system. The author proposes further research on the individuals decision making abilities.
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    Theory and decision 49 (2000), S. 53-77 
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    Keywords: Substantive products ; Symbolic products ; Substantive utility ; Symbolic utility ; Selfhood ; Prestige and Vanity ; Pride and deference ; Identity and reification ; Time-frame context of assessment ; Normal tastes ; Distorted tastes
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The paper distinguishes between two kinds of products, `symbolic' and `substantive'. While substantive products confer welfare utility in the sense of pecuniary benefits, symbolic products accord self-regarding utility. Symbolic products enter the utility function in a way which differs from substantive ones. The paper distinguishes among three kinds of symbolic products and proposes that each has a distorted form. If symbolic products result from forward-looking evaluation, they act as `prestige goods' which please admiration or, when distorted, as `vanity goods' which satiate pretentiousness. When symbolic products originate from forward-looking action, they act as `pride goods' which satisfy respect or, when distorted, as `deference goods' which indulge pomposity. When symbolic products arise from backward-looking evaluation, they act as `identity goods' which enhance dignity or, when distorted, as `reification goods' which gratify reverence.
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    Theory and decision 49 (2000), S. 175-196 
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    Keywords: Voting rules ; Borda rule ; Plurality rule ; Condorcet criteria ; Social homogeneity
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In a three-candidate election, a scoring rule λ, λ∈[0,1], assigns 1,λ and 0 points (respectively) to each first, second and third place in the individual preference rankings. The Condorcet efficiency of a scoring rule is defined as the conditional probability that this rule selects the winner in accordance with Condorcet criteria (three Condorcet criteria are considered in the paper). We are interested in the following question: What rule λ has the greatest Condorcet efficiency? After recalling the known answer to this question, we investigate the impact of social homogeneity on the optimal value of λ. One of the most salient results we obtain is that the optimality of the Borda rule (λ=1/2) holds only if the voters act in an independent way.
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    Theory and decision 49 (2000), S. 97-126 
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    Keywords: Element of chance ; Idempotence ; Kernel equivalent ; Rank-dependent utility ; Utility of chance ; Utility of gambling
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract One aspect of the utility of gambling may evidence itself in failures of idempotence, i.e., when all chance outcomes give rise to the same consequence the `gamble' may not be indifferent to its common consequence. Under the assumption of segregation, such gambles can be expressed as the joint receipt of the common consequence and what we call `an element of chance', namely, the same gamble with the common consequence replaced by the status quo. Generalizing, any gamble is indifferent to the joint receipt of its element of chance and a certain consequence, which is called the `kernel equivalent' of the gamble. Under idempotence, the kernel equivalent equals the certainty equivalent. Conditions are reported (Theorem 4) that are sufficient for the kernel equivalents to have the kind of utility representation first discussed by Luce and Fishburn (1991), including being idempotent. This utility representation of the kernel equivalents together with the derived form of utility over joint receipts yields a utility representation of the original structure. Possible forms for the utility of an element of chance are developed.
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    Theory and decision 49 (2000), S. 289-290 
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    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The recently proposed ``infinite decision puzzle'' is based on incorrect mathematics.
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    Theory and decision 49 (2000), S. 299-312 
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    Keywords: Utilitarianism ; Separability ; Individualism ; Social choice ; Social welfare functions
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    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract After reviewing the compelling case for separability (`social welfare is a separable function of individual utilities'), an argument is advanced for utilitarianism (defined as `social welfare is the unweighted sum of individual utilities'). Basically, a compelling individualism-type axiom leads us to (social welfare as an) unweighted sum (of individual utilities), given separability.
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    Theory and decision 49 (2000), S. 361-374 
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    Keywords: Auctions ; Non-expected utility
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    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In this paper we examine optimal bidding without the independence axiom in a unified framework which allows for a clear graphical representation. Thus, we can show very simply the independence axiom to be a necessary and sufficient condition on preferences for strategical equivalence of the two first-price and second-price auctions, respectively, and for the second-price sealed-bid auction to be demand revealing. The analysis reveals that the betweenness property is necessary and sufficient for the ascending-bid auction to be demand revealing while optimal bids exceed (are less than) bidders' valuations, iff preferences are quasiconcave (quasiconvex). Furthermore, it can be shown that fanning out (fanning in) leads to a higher (lower) selling-price in open than in sealed-bid auctions.
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    Theory and decision 48 (2000), S. 61-84 
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    Keywords: Backward induction ; Iterated prisoner's dilemma ; Common knowledge
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    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The backward induction argument purports to show that rational and suitably informed players will defect throughout a finite sequence of prisoner's dilemmas. It is supposed to be a useful argument for predicting how rational players will behave in a variety of interesting decision situations. Here, I lay out a set of assumptions defining a class of finite sequences of prisoner's dilemmas. Given these assumptions, I suggest how it might appear that backward induction succeeds and why it is actually fallacious. Then, I go on to consider the consequences of adopting a stronger set of assumptions. Focusing my attention on stronger sets that, like the original, obey the informedness condition, I show that any supplementation of the original set that preserves informedness does so at the expense of forcing rational participants in prisoner's dilemma situations to have unexpected beliefs, ones that threaten the usefulness of backward induction.
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    Keywords: Two-player ; Borda electoral competition
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    Notes: Abstract In this note we introduce the notion of K–player additive extension of a symmetric two-player game and prove a result relating the equilibria in mixed strategies in the two games. Then we apply the result to the Borda electoral competition game.
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    Theory and decision 48 (2000), S. 139-149 
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    Keywords: Nash equilibrium ; Individual optimum ; Social optimum
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    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract We show that if identical members first decide on the sharing technology (stage I) taking into account their subsequent effort supply (stage II) decisions, the resulting contractarian sharing technology (constitution) channels individual self-seeking towards team (Pareto) optimum. Voting with one's feet and open entry can ensure symmetry and majoritarian decision making in the real world teams. The model helps explain the differential performance of the Israeli Kibbutz and the Russian Kolkhoz.
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    Theory and decision 48 (2000), S. 359-381 
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    Keywords: Bayesian Decision Theory ; Global robustness ; Loss function ; Mixture class
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    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract We propose a class [I,S] of loss functions for modeling the imprecise preferences of the decision maker in Bayesian Decision Theory. This class is built upon two extreme loss functions I and S which reflect the limited information about the loss function. We give an approximation of the set of Bayes actions for every loss function in [I,S] and every prior in a mixture class; if the decision space is a subset of ℝ, we obtain the exact set.
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    Theory and decision 48 (2000), S. 311-318 
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    Keywords: Decision theory ; Sequential decisions ; Independence ; Backward induction ; Preferences ; Indifference ; Preference stability ; Tiebreaks
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Seidenfeld (Seidenfeld, T. [1988a], Decision theory without 'Independence' or without 'Ordering', Economics and Philosophy 4: 267-290) gave an argument for Independence based on a supposition that admissibility of a sequential option is preserved under substitution of indifferents at choice nodes (S). To avoid a natural complaint that (S) begs the question against a critic of Independence, he provided an independent proof of (S) in his (Seidenfeld, T. [1988b], Rejoinder [to Hammond and McClennen], Economics and Philosophy 4: 309-315). In reply to my (Rabinowicz, W. [1995], To have one's cake and eat it too: Sequential choice and expected-utility violations, The Journal of Philosophy 92: 586-620), in which I argue that the proof is invalid, Seidenfeld (Seidenfeld, T. [2000], Substitution of indifferent options at choice nodes and admissibility: A reply to Rabinowicz, Theory and Decision 48: 305–310 this issue) submits that I fail to give due consideration to one of the underlying assumptions of his derivation: it is meant to apply only to those cases in which the agent's preferences are stable throughout the sequential decision process. The purpose of this note is to clarify the notion of preference stability so as meet this objection.
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    Theory and decision 49 (2000), S. 25-51 
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    Keywords: Emergency response ; Flexibility ; Information ; Irreversibility ; Option value
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The irreversibility effect implies that a decision maker who neglects the prospect of receiving more complete information at later stages of a sequential decision problem will in certain cases too easily take an irreversible decision, as he ignores the existence of a positive option value in favour of reversible decisions. This option value represents the decision maker's flexibility to adapt subsequent decisions to the obtained information. In this paper we show that the economic models dealing with irreversibility as used in environmental and capital investment decision making can be extended to emergency response decisions that produce important irreversible effects. In particular, we concentrate on the decision whether or not to evacuate an industrial area threatened by a possible nuclear accident. We show in a simple two-period evacuation decision model that non-optimal conclusions may be drawn when evacuation is regarded as a `now or never decision'. The robustness of these results is verified by means of a sensitivity analysis of the various model parameters. The importance of `options thinking' in this decision context is illustrated in an example.
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    Theory and decision 48 (2000), S. 205-240 
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    Keywords: Ignorance ; Ambiguity ; Multiple priors ; Rational choice ; Incomplete preference ; Robustness ; Independence ; Sure-thing principle ; Context-dependence ; Choice consistency
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper contributes to a theory of rational choice for decision-makers with incomplete preferences due to partial ignorance, whose beliefs are representable as sets of acceptable priors. We focus on the limiting case of `Complete Ignorance' which can be viewed as reduced form of the general case of partial ignorance. Rationality is conceptualized in terms of a `Principle of Preference-Basedness', according to which rational choice should be isomorphic to asserted preference. The main result characterizes axiomatically a new choice-rule called `Simultaneous Expected Utility Maximization'. It can be interpreted as agreement in a bargaining game (Kalai-Smorodinsky solution) whose players correspond to the (extremal) `acceptable priors' among which the decision maker has suspended judgment. An essential but non-standard feature of Simultaneous Expected Utility choices is their dependence on the entire choice set. This is justified by the conception of optimality as compromise rather than as superiority in pairwise comparisons.
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    Theory and decision 48 (2000), S. 351-358 
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    Keywords: Bargaining ; Nash solution ; Nonconvex problems ; Social Welfare Orderings
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In this paper we deal with the extension of Nash bargaining theory to nonconvex problems. By focussing on the Social Welfare Ordering associated with a bargaining solution, we characterize the symmetric Nash Bargaining Solution (NBS). Moreover, we obtain a unified method of proof of recent characterization results for the asymmetric single-valued NBS and the symmetric multivalued NBS, as well as their extensions to different domains.
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    Theory and decision 49 (2000), S. 151-157 
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    Keywords: Nash Bargaining ; Social Choice Rules ; Suppes-Sen Dominance
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper provides an ethical intepretation of the Nash choice rule. In a setting in which (cardinal) utilities are interpersonally comparable, this procedure is characterised by an impartiality requirement and by the assumption that choices are not responsive to the agents' relative ability to convert resources into utility.
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    Theory and decision 48 (2000), S. 85-99 
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    Keywords: Pretence ; Altruism ; Meanness
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    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The paper examines when unilateral and bilateral pretence may be beneficial distinguishing between positive and negative externalities. Using a two-player single period game and defining altruism, selfishness and meanness as "sentimental continuity" it is shown how the optimal level of the pretended sentimentality is determined. The novelty of the model is that the optimal degree of altruism (meanness) depends on the extent of the positive (negative) externalities.
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    Theory and decision 48 (2000), S. 193-204 
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    Keywords: (Nash) equilibrium in Strategies ; dynamic games ; ambiguity ; Knightian uncertainty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The paper points out that in dynamic games a player may be better-off if other players do not know his choice of strategy. That is, a player may benefit by not revealing (or not pre-determining) the choice of his action in an information set he (thereby) hopes will not be reached. He would be better-off by exercising his ``right to remain silent'' if he believes –- as the empirical evidence shows –- that players display aversion to ``Knightian uncertainty''. In this case, a player who behaves strategically, may wish to avoid revealing his strategy. This is true under various interpretations of the notion of ``strategy profiles''.
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