ALBERT

Description: Long sediment cores recovered from the deep portions of Lake Titicaca are used to reconstruct the precipitation history of tropical South America for the past 25,000 years. Lake Titicaca was a deep, fresh, and continuously overflowing lake during the last glacial stage, from before 25,000 to 15,000 calibrated years before the present (cal yr B.P.), signifying that during the last glacial maximum (LGM), the Altiplano of Bolivia and Peru and much of the Amazon basin were wetter than today. The LGM in this part of the Andes is dated at 21,000 cal yr B.P., approximately coincident with the global LGM. Maximum aridity and lowest lake level occurred in the early and middle Holocene (8000 to 5500 cal yr B.P.) during a time of low summer insolation. Today, rising levels of Lake Titicaca and wet conditions in Amazonia are correlated with anomalously cold sea-surface temperatures in the northern equatorial Atlantic. Likewise, during the deglacial and Holocene periods, there were several millennial-scale wet phases on the Altiplano and in Amazonia that coincided with anomalously cold periods in the equatorial and high-latitude North Atlantic, such as the Younger Dryas.

Description: Massive microbial mats covering up to 4-meter-high carbonate buildups prosper at methane seeps in anoxic waters of the northwestern Black Sea shelf. Strong 13C depletions indicate an incorporation of methane carbon into carbonates, bulk biomass, and specific lipids. The mats mainly consist of densely aggregated archaea (phylogenetic ANME-1 cluster) and sulfate-reducing bacteria (Desulfosarcina/Desulfococcusgroup). If incubated in vitro, these mats perform anaerobic oxidation of methane coupled to sulfate reduction. Obviously, anaerobic microbial consortia can generate both carbonate precipitation and substantial biomass accumulation, which has implications for our understanding of carbon cycling during earlier periods of Earth's history.

Description: In vertebrates, genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), with their pronounced polymorphism, potentially represent outstanding examples for the selective advantages of genetic diversity (1). Theoretical models predicted that, within an individual, MHC alleles can be subjected to two opposing selective forces, resulting in an optimal number of genes at intermediate individual MHC diversity (2, 3). Diversifying selection increases heterozygosity and enables wider recognition of pathogens (4). This process is opposed by the need to delete T cells that react with self peptide–MHC combinations (5) from the repertoire, which has been proposed as a possible mechanism constraining expansion of MHC genes. Because too high MHC diversity might delimit T cell diversity, it might also impose limitations on the efficiency of pathogen recognition. However, empirical evidence demonstrating fitness benefits in terms of parasite resistance caused by this type of optimal MHC diversity has been lacking. Therefore, we tested whether three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.) carrying an intermediate level of individual MHC diversity also displayed the strongest level of resistance against parasite infection. Sticklebacks are particularly suited to test MHC optimality, because MHC class II genotypes can differ markedly in the number of MHC class IIB alleles (6). We caught fish from an outbred population and used these to breed six sibships of immunologically naïve fish (i.e., they had no previous contact to parasites). Immunogenetic diversity ranged from three to nine MHC class IIB alleles found in reverse-transcribed messenger RNA (mRNA) [see (6) for details on genotyping]. The MHC genotypes within these sibships segregated above and below the hypothesized optimal number of ∼5 MHC class IIB alleles, which had previously been estimated in an epidemiological field survey (7). In individual infection treatments, fish from all sibships were simultaneously exposed to three of the most abundant parasite species identified in the field (Fig. 1A) (8). After two rounds of infection, separated by an interval of 8 weeks, we found a significant minimal mean infection rate at an intermediate number of individual MHC class IIB variants [i.e., 5.82 expressed alleles (Fig. 1B)]. This result was also confirmed when sibships were considered separately [i.e., 4.96 alleles (Fig. 1C)] (9). The strong pattern only appeared when infection with all three parasites was accounted for simultaneously. This may not be surprising, because single alleles are expected to correlate with single diseases and multiple alleles can contribute to resistance against several infectious agents (2).

Description: In vertebrates, genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), with their pronounced polymorphism, potentially represent outstanding examples for the selective advantages of genetic diversity (1). Theoretical models predicted that, within an individual, MHC alleles can be subjected to two opposing selective forces, resulting in an optimal number of genes at intermediate individual MHC diversity (2, 3). Diversifying selection increases heterozygosity and enables wider recognition of pathogens (4). This process is opposed by the need to delete T cells that react with self peptide–MHC combinations (5) from the repertoire, which has been proposed as a possible mechanism constraining expansion of MHC genes. Because too high MHC diversity might delimit T cell diversity, it might also impose limitations on the efficiency of pathogen recognition. However, empirical evidence demonstrating fitness benefits in terms of parasite resistance caused by this type of optimal MHC diversity has been lacking. Therefore, we tested whether three-spined sticklebacks (Gasterosteus aculeatus L.) carrying an intermediate level of individual MHC diversity also displayed the strongest level of resistance against parasite infection. Sticklebacks are particularly suited to test MHC optimality, because MHC class II genotypes can differ markedly in the number of MHC class IIB alleles (6). We caught fish from an outbred population and used these to breed six sibships of immunologically naïve fish (i.e., they had no previous contact to parasites). Immunogenetic diversity ranged from three to nine MHC class IIB alleles found in reverse-transcribed messenger RNA (mRNA) [see (6) for details on genotyping]. The MHC genotypes within these sibships segregated above and below the hypothesized optimal number of ∼5 MHC class IIB alleles, which had previously been estimated in an epidemiological field survey (7). In individual infection treatments, fish from all sibships were simultaneously exposed to three of the most abundant parasite species identified in the field (Fig. 1A) (8). After two rounds of infection, separated by an interval of 8 weeks, we found a significant minimal mean infection rate at an intermediate number of individual MHC class IIB variants [i.e., 5.82 expressed alleles (Fig. 1B)]. This result was also confirmed when sibships were considered separately [i.e., 4.96 alleles (Fig. 1C)] (9). The strong pattern only appeared when infection with all three parasites was accounted for simultaneously. This may not be surprising, because single alleles are expected to correlate with single diseases and multiple alleles can contribute to resistance against several infectious agents (2).

Description: Study of Nautilus belauensis i its natural habitat in Palau, West Caroline Islands, shows that growth is slow (0.1 millimeter of shell per day on the average) and decreases as maturity is approached and that individuals may live at least 4 years beyond maturity. Age estimates for seven animals marked and recaptured between 45 and 355 days after release range from 14.5 to 17.2 years. These data indicate that the life-span of Nautilus may exceed 20 years and that its life strategy is very different from that of other living cephalopods.

Description: The decadal-scale variability in the tropical Pacific has been analyzed herein by means of observations and numerical model simulations. The two leading modes of the sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the central western Pacific are a decadal mode with a period of about 10 yr and the ENSO mode with a dominant period of about 4 yr. The SST anomaly pattern of the decadal mode is ENSO like. The decadal mode, however, explains most variance in the western equatorial Pacific and off the equator. A simulation with an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) forced by reanalysis data is used to explore the origin of the decadal mode. It is found that the variability of the shallow subtropical–tropical overturning cells is an important factor in driving the decadal mode. This is supported by results from a multicentury integration with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) that realistically simulates tropical Pacific decadal variability. Finally, the sensitivity of the shallow subtropical–tropical overturning cells to greenhouse warming is discussed by analyzing the results of a scenario integration with the same CGCM.

Description: Using inorganic carbon measurements from an international survey effort in the 1990s and a tracer-based separation technique, we estimate a global oceanic anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) sink for the period from 1800 to 1994 of 118 ± 19 petagrams of carbon. The oceanic sink accounts for ∼48% of the total fossil-fuel and cement-manufacturing emissions, implying that the terrestrial biosphere was a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere of about 39 ± 28 petagrams of carbon for this period. The current fraction of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions stored in the ocean appears to be about one-third of the long-term potential.

Description: Oceanic ecosystems altered by interdecadal climate variability may provide a feedback to the physical climate by phytoplankton affecting heat fluxes into the upper ocean and dimethylsulfide fluxes into the atmosphere

Description: The current system east of the Grand Banks was intensely observed by World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) array ACM-6 during 1993–95 with eight moorings, reaching about 500 km out from the shelf edge and covering the water column from about 400-m depth to the bottom. More recently, a reduced array by the Institut für Meerskunde (IfM) at Kiel, Germany, of four moorings was deployed during 1999–2001, focusing on the deep-water flow near the western continental slope. Both sets of moored time series, each about 22 months long, are combined here for a mean current boundary section, and both arrays are analyzed for the variability of currents and transports. A mean hydrographic section is derived from seven ship surveys and is used for geostrophic upper-layer extrapolation and isopycnal subdivision of the mean transports into deep-water classes. The offshore part of the combined section is dominated by the deep-reaching North Atlantic Current (NAC) with currents still at 10 cm s−1 near the bottom and a total northward transport of about 140 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), with the details depending on the method of surface extrapolation used. The mean flow along the western boundary was southward with the section-mean North Atlantic Deep Water outflow determined to be 12 Sv below the σθ = 27.74 kg m−3 isopycnal. However, east of the deep western boundary current (DWBC), the deep NAC carries a transport of 51 Sv northward below σθ = 27.74 kg m−3, resulting in a large net northward flow in the western part of the basin. From watermass signatures it is concluded that the deep NAC is not a direct recirculation of DWBC water masses. Transport time series for the DWBC variability are derived for both arrays. The variance is concentrated in the period range from 2 weeks to 2 months, but there are also variations at interannual and longer periods, with much of the DWBC variability being related to fluctuations and meandering of the NAC. A significant annual cycle is not recognizable in the combined current and transport time series of both arrays. The moored array results are compared with other evidence on deep outflow and recirculation, including recent models of different types and complexity.

Description: This study investigates and accounts for the influence of various ice cloud parameters on the retrieval of the surface solar radiation budget (SSRB) from reflected flux at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). The optical properties of ice clouds depend on ice crystal shape, size distribution, water content, and the vertical profiles of geometric and microphysical structure. As a result, the relationship between the SSRB and TOA-reflected flux for an ice cloud atmosphere is more complex and differs from that for water cloud and cloudless atmospheres. The sensitivities of the relationship between the SSRB and TOA-reflected flux are examined with respect to various ice cloud parameters. Uncertainties in the retrieval of the SSRB due to inadequate knowledge of various ice cloud parameters are evaluated thoroughly. The uncertainty study is concerned with both pure ice clouds and multiphase clouds (ice cloud above water cloud). According to the magnitudes of errors in the SSRB retrieval caused by different input variables, parameterized correction terms were introduced. If the input variables are known accurately, errors in the retrieval of the SSRB under a wide range of ice cloud conditions are expected to diminish substantially, to less than 10 W m−2 for 91% of the simulated ice cloud cases. In comparison, the same accuracy may be attained for only 19% of the retrievals for the same ice cloud cases using the retrieval algorithm designed for non-ice-cloud conditions.

Description: Large euhedral crystals of calcium carbonate hexahydrate were recovered from a shelf basin of the Bransfield Strait, Antarctic Peninsula, at a water depth of 1950 meters and sub-zero bottom water temperatures. The chemistry, mineralogy, and stable isotope composition of this hydrated calcium carbonate phase, its environment of formation, and its mode of precipitation confirm the properties variously attributed to hypothetical precursors of the glendonites and thereby greatly expand their use in paleoceanographic interpretation.

Description: Intrinsic oscillations of stable geophysical surface frontal currents of the unsteady, nonlinear, reduced-gravity shallow-water equations on an f plane are investigated analytically and numerically. For frictional (Rayleigh) currents characterized by linear horizontal velocity components and parabolic cross sections, the primitive equations are reduced to a set of coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations. In the inviscid case, two periodic analytical solutions of the nonlinear problem describing 1) the inertially reversing horizontal displacement of a surface frontal current having a fixed parabolic cross section and 2) the cross-front pulsation of a coastal current emerging from a motionless surface frontal layer are presented. In a linear and in a weakly nonlinear context, analytical expressions for field oscillations and their frequency shift relative to the inertial frequency are presented. For the fully nonlinear problem, solutions referring to a surface frontal coastal current are obtained analytically and numerically. These solutions show that the currents oscillate always superinertially, the frequency and the amplitude of their oscillations depending on the magnitude of the initial disturbance and on the squared current Rossby number. In a linear framework, it is shown that disturbances superimposed on the surface frontal current are standing waves within the bounded region, the frequencies of which are inertial/superinertial for the first mode/higher modes. In the same frame, a zeroth mode, which could be interpreted as the superposition of an inertial wave on a background vorticity field, would formally yield subinertial frequencies. For surface frontal currents affected by Rayleigh friction, it is shown that the magnitude of the mean current decays according to a power law and that the oscillations decay faster, because this decay follows an exponential law. Implications of the intrinsic oscillations and of their rapid dissipation for the near-inertial motion in an active ambient ocean are discussed.

Description: A method for combining ground-based passive microwave radiometer retrievals of integrated liquid water (LWP), radar reflectivity profiles (Z), and statistics of a cloud model is proposed for deriving cloud liquid water profiles (LWC). A dynamic cloud model is used to determine Z–LWC relations and their errors as functions of height above cloud base. The cloud model is also used to develop an LWP algorithm based on simulations of brightness temperatures of a 20–30-GHz radiometer. For the retrieval of LWC, the radar determined Z profile, the passive microwave retrieved LWP, and a model climatology are combined by an inverse error covariance weighting method. Model studies indicate that LWC retrievals with this method result in rms errors that are about 10%–20% smaller in comparison to a conventional LWC algorithm, which constrains the LWC profile exactly to the measured LWP. According to the new algorithm, errors in the range of 30%–60% are to be anticipated when profiling LWC. The algorithm is applied to a time series measurement of a stratocumulus layer at GKSS in Geesthacht, Germany. The GKSS 95-GHz cloud radar, a 20–30-GHz microwave radiometer, and a laser ceilometer were collocated within a 5-m radius and operated continuously during the measurement period. The laser ceilometer was used to confirm the presence of drizzle-sized drops.

Description: North Atlantic synoptic-scale processes are analyzed by bandpassing 6-hourly NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data (1958–98) for several synoptic ranges corresponding to ultrahigh-frequency variability (0.5–2 days), synoptic-scale variability (2–6 days), slow synoptic processes (6–12 days), and low-frequency variability (12–30 days). Climatological patterns of the intensity of synoptic processes are not collocated for different ranges of variability, especially in the lower troposphere. Intensities of synoptic processes demonstrate opposite trends between the North American coast and in the northeast Atlantic. Although north of 40°N the intensity of ultrahigh-frequency variability and synoptic-scale processes show similar interannual variability, further analysis indicates that secular changes, and decadal-scale and interannual variability in the intensities of synoptic processes may not be necessarily consistent for different synoptic timescales. Magnitudes of winter ultrahigh-frequency variability are highly correlated with the intensity of synoptic-scale processes in the 1960s and early 1970s. However, they show little agreement with each other during the last two decades, pointing to the remarkable change in atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic in late 1970s. North Atlantic ultrahigh-frequency variability in winter is highly correlated with surface temperature gradient anomalies in the Atlantic–American sector. These gradients are computed from the merged fields of SST and surface temperature over the continent. They demonstrate a dipolelike pattern associated with the North American coast on one hand, with the subpolar SST front and continental Canada on the other. High-frequency variability and its synoptic counterpart demonstrate different relationships with the North Atlantic Oscillation. Reliability of these results and their sensitivity to the filtering procedures are addressed by comparison to radiosonde data and application of alternative filters.

Description: Bottom water temperatures in the central Greenland Sea have been increasing for the last two decades. The warming is most likely related to the absence of deep convective mixing, which cools and freshens the deep water. However, recent observations confirm a slow and steady increase of anthropogenic tracers such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). This points to some amount of bottom water “ventilation” in the absence of deep convective mixing and poses a challenge to our understanding of deep water renewal. One explanation for the observed trends in both temperature and CFCs is significant vertical mixing. The basin-averaged diapycnal diffusivity, required to explain both trends, kυ,av 2–3 (×10−3 m2 s−1), is very unlikely to occur in the interior of the ocean. However, a diffusivity of kυ,bbl 10−2 m2 s−1 within a 150-m thick bottom boundary layer would be sufficient to explain the deep tracer increase. The implications of a secondary circulation driven by such large boundary layer mixing are discussed.

Description: A tomographic image of the upper mantle beneath central Tibet from INDEPTH data has revealed a subvertical high-velocity zone from ~ 100- to ~ 400- kilometers depth, located approximately south of the Bangong-Nujiang Suture. We interpret this zone to be downwelling Indian mantle lithosphere. This additional lithosphere would account for the total amount of shortening in the Himalayas and Tibet. A consequence of this downwelling would be a deficit of asthenosphere, which should be balanced by an upwelling counterflow, and thus could explain the presence of warm mantle beneath north-central Tibet.

Description: Aspects of the dynamics of warm-core eddies evolving in a deep ocean are investigated using the results of laboratory experiments and numerical simulations. The vortices, produced experimentally in a system brought to solid body rotation by rapidly lifting a bottomless cylinder containing freshwater immersed in a salty ambient fluid, show clearly the presence of inertial oscillations: deepenings and contractions, shoalings and expansions, alternate during an exact inertial period. These pulsations, though predicted analytically and simulated numerically, had never been measured before for surface eddies having aspect ratios, as well as Rossby and Burger numbers, typical of geophysical warm-core eddies. The spatial structure of the vortex radial and tangential velocity components is analyzed using the experimental results and numerical simulations carried out by means of a layered, nonlinear, reduced-gravity frontal model. It is found that, while the dependence of the vortex radial velocity on the vortex radius evolves toward linearity as time elapses, different spatial structures seem to be possible for the vortex tangential velocity dependence. This behavior, which strongly differs from the “pulson” dynamics, is instead consistent with recently found analytical solutions of the nonlinear, reduced-gravity shallow-water equations describing the dynamics of warm-core eddies on an f plane.

Description: Simulations and seasonal forecasts of tropical Pacific SST and subsurface fields that are based on the global Consortium for Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) ocean-state estimation procedure are investigated. As compared to similar results from a traditional ENSO simulation and forecast procedure, the hindcast of the constrained ocean state is significantly closer to observed surface and subsurface conditions. The skill of the 12-month lead SST forecast in the equatorial Pacific is comparable in both approaches. The optimization appears to have better skill in the SST anomaly correlations, suggesting that the initial ocean conditions and forcing corrections calculated by the ocean-state estimation do have a positive impact on the predictive skill. However, the optimized forecast skill is currently limited by the low quality of the statistical atmosphere. Progress is expected from optimizing a coupled model over a longer time interval with the coupling statistics being part of the control vector.

Description: The authors derive a string function that describes the propagation of large-scale, potentially large amplitude, baroclinic energy anomalies in a two-layer ocean with variable topography and rotation parameter. The generality of the two-layer results allows results for the 1-layer, 1.5-layer, inverted 1.5-layer, lens, and dome models to be produced as limiting-cases. The string function is a scalar field that acts as a streamfunction for the propagation velocity. In the linear case the string function is simply c2o/f, where co is the background baroclinic shallow water wave speed, and typically describes propagation poleward on the eastern boundaries, westward (with some topographic steering) over the middle ocean, and equatorward on the western boundaries. In the more general nonlinear case, the string function is locally distorted by the anomaly. In the fully nonlinear examples of a lens or dome, there is no rest or background string function; the string function is generated entirely by the disturbance and propagation is due to asymmetric distribution of the anomalous mass over the string function contours. It is shown that conventional beta/topographic propagation results (e.g., beta drift of eddies, the Nof speed of cold domes) can be obtained as limiting cases of the string function. The string function provides, however, more general propagation velocities that are also usually simpler to derive. The first baroclinic mode string function for the global oceans is calculated from hydrographic data. The westward propagation speeds in the ocean basins as derived from the meridional gradient of the string function are typically two to five times faster than those expected from standard theory and agree well with the propagation speeds observed for long baroclinic Rossby waves in the TOPEX/Poseidon data.

Description: Two large-scale free-drifting isobaric-floats experiments, “SOFARGOS”/Marine Science and Technology Programme, phase 2 (MAST2) and Mass Transfer and Ecosystem Response (MATER)/MAST3, undertaken in 1994–95 in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea and in 1997–98 in the Algerian Basin, respectively, have revealed for the first time that Western Mediterranean Deep Water, newly formed by deep convection in the Gulf of Lion (the so-called Medoc site), can be advected several hundreds of kilometers away from the formation area by anticyclonic submesoscale coherent vortices (SCVs). This behavior implies that SCVs participate actively in the large-scale thermohaline circulation and deep ventilation of the western Mediterranean Sea. These SCVs are characterized by small radius (5 km), very low potential vorticity, high aspect ratio (0.1), and extended lifetime (〉0.5 yr).

Description: In the eastern South Pacific Ocean, at a depth of about 200 m, a salinity minimum is found. This minimum is associated with a particular water mass, the “Shallow Salinity Minimum Water” (SSMW). SSMW outcrops in a fresh tongue (Smin) centered at about 45°S. The Smin appears to emanate from the eastern boundary, against the mean flow. The watermass transformation that creates SSMW and Smin is investigated here. The Smin and SSMW are transformed from saltier and warmer waters originating from the western South Pacific. The freshening and cooling occur when the water is advected eastward at the poleward side of the subtropical gyre. Sources of freshening and cooling are air–sea exchange and advection of water from south of the subtropical gyre. A freshwater and heat budget for the mixed layer reveals that both sources equally contribute to the watermass transformation in the mixed layer. The freshened and cooled mixed layer water is subducted into the gyre interior along the southern rim of the subtropical gyre. Subduction into the zonal flow restricts the transformation of interior properties to diffusion only. A simple advection/diffusion balance reveals diffusion coefficients of order 2000 m2 s−1. The tongue shape of the Smin is explained from a dynamical viewpoint because no relation to a positive precipitation–evaporation balance was found. Freshest Smin values are found to coincide with slowest eastward mixed layer flow that accumulates the largest amounts of freshwater in the mixed layer and creates the fresh tongue at the sea surface. Although the SSMW is the densest and freshest mode of water subducted along the South American coast, the freshening and cooling in the South Pacific affect a whole range of densities (25.0–26.8 kg m−3). The transformed water turns northward with the gyre circulation and contributes to the hydrographic structure of the gyre farther north. Because the South Pacific provides most of the source waters that upwell along the equatorial Pacific, variability in South Pacific hydrography may influence equatorial Pacific hydrography. Because one-half of the transformation is found to be controlled through Ekman transport, variability in wind forcing at the southern rim of the subtropical gyre may be a source for variability of the equatorial Pacific.

Description: Turbulent fluxes of momentum and sensible heat were estimated from sonic anemometer measurements gathered over the Labrador Sea during a winter cruise of the R/V Knorr. The inertial dissipation method was used to calculate turbulent fluxes of momentum. The resulting drag coefficients agree well with earlier findings. Sensible heat fluxes were computed using both cross-correlation and inertial dissipation techniques. There is good agreement between results from both methods, although there is more scatter in the correlation fluxes than the dissipation fluxes. The inertial dissipation method gives reasonable results even under conditions of high wind speeds and low air temperatures, which combined with the relatively warm sea surface temperatures lead to sensible heat fluxes of several hundred watts per square meter. Sensible heat fluxes obtained from the sonic anemometer measurements agree well with bulk turbulent fluxes according to the formulation of Isemer and Hasse.

Description: An analytical model is developed to study the tidally induced mean circulation in the frontal zone. Four distinct forcing mechanisms are identified, which result in the generation of the counterclockwise Bernoulli cell, the clockwise Ekman cell, the clockwise frontal cell, and the Stokes drift (facing in the direction with the shallow water to the left). The decomposition of the cross-frontal circulation provides a dynamical framework for interpreting and understanding its complex structure. To illustrate the underlying physics, three model configurations are considered pertaining to a homogenous ocean and winter and summer fronts. For a homogeneous ocean, the circulation is dominated by three cells; for the winter front, the offshore Bernoulli cell is strengthened; and for the summer front, two counterrotating cells are found in the vertical direction, associated with the two branches of the front. The dependence of the cell structure on the Ekman, Burger, and other dimensionless numbers is examined.

Description: A multi-model ensemble-based system for seasonal-to-interannual prediction has been developed in a joint European project known as DEMETER (Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction). The DEMETER system comprises seven global atmosphere–ocean coupled models, each running from an ensemble of initial conditions. Comprehensive hindcast evaluation demonstrates the enhanced reliability and skill of the multimodel ensemble over a more conventional single-model ensemble approach. In addition, innovative examples of the application of seasonal ensemble forecasts in malaria and crop yield prediction are discussed. The strategy followed in DEMETER deals with important problems such as communication across disciplines, downscaling of climate simulations, and use of probabilistic forecast information in the applications sector, illustrating the economic value of seasonal-to-interannual prediction for society as a whole.

Description: This study focuses on an important aspect of air–sea interaction in models, namely, large-scale, spurious heat fluxes due to false pathways of the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current (NAC) in the “storm formation region” south and east of Newfoundland. Although high-resolution eddy-resolving models show some improvement in this respect, results are sensitive to poorly understood, subgrid-scale processes for which there is currently no complete, physically based parameterization. A simple method to correct an ocean general circulation model (OGCM), acting as a practical substitute for a physically based parameterization, is explored: the recently proposed “semiprognostic method,” a technique for adiabatically adjusting flow properties of a hydrostatic OGCM. The authors show that application of the method to an eddy-permitting model of the North Atlantic Ocean yields more realistic flow patterns and watermass characteristics in the Gulf Stream and NAC regions; in particular, spurious surface heat fluxes are reduced. Four simple modifications to the method are proposed, and their benefits are demonstrated. The modifications successfully account for three drawbacks of the original method: reduced geostrophic wave speeds, damped mesoscale eddy activity, and spurious interaction with topography. It is argued that use of a corrected (eddy permitting) OGCM in a coupled modeling system for simulating present climate (as now becomes possible because of increasing computer power) should lead to a more realistic simulation in regions of strong air–sea interaction as compared with that obtained with an uncorrected model. The method is also well suited for the simulation of the uptake and transport of passive tracers, such as anthropogenic carbon dioxide or components of ecosystem models.

Description: A general circulation ocean model has been used to study the formation and propagation mechanisms of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-generated temperature anomalies along the pathway of the North Atlantic Current (NAC). The NAO-like wind forcing generates temperature anomalies in the upper 440 m that propagate along the pathway of the NAC in general agreement with the observations. The analysis of individual components of the ocean heat budget reveals that the anomalies are primarily generated by the wind stress anomaly-induced oceanic heat transport divergence. After their generation they are advected with the mean current. Surface heat flux anomalies account for only one-third of the total temperature changes. Along the pathway of the NAC temperature anomalies of opposite signs are formed in the first and second halves of the pathway, a pattern called here the North Atlantic dipole (NAD). The response of the ocean depends fundamentally on Rt = (L/υ)/τ, the ratio between the time it takes for anomalies to propagate along the NAC [(L/υ) 10 years] compared to the forcing period τ. The authors find that for NAO periods shorter than 4 years (Rt 〉 1) the response in the subpolar region is mainly determined by the local forcing. For NAO periods longer than 32 years (Rt 〈 1); however, the SST anomalies in the northeastern part of the NAD become controlled by ocean advection. In the subpolar region maximal amplitudes of the temperature response are found for intermediate (decadal) periods (Rt 1) where the propagation of temperature anomalies constructively interferes with the local forcing. A comparison of the NAO-generated propagating temperature anomalies with those found in observations will be discussed.

Description: Recent insights into bacterial genome organization and function have improved our understanding of the nature of pathogenic bacteria and their ability to cause disease. It is becoming increasingly clear that the bacterial chromosome constantly undergoes structural changes due to gene acquisition and loss, recombination, and mutational events that have an impact on the pathogenic potential of the bacterium. Even though the bacterial genome includes additional genetic elements, the chromosome represents the most important entity in this context. Here, we will show that various processes of genomic instability have an influence on the many manifestations of infectious disease

Description: Bulk properties of the Denmark Strait overflow (DSO) plume observed in velocity and hydrography surveys undertaken in 1997 and 1998 are described. Despite the presence of considerable short-term variability, it is found that the pathway and evolution of the plume density anomaly are remarkably steady. Bottom stress measurements show that the pathway of the plume core matches well with a rate of descent controlled by friction. The estimated entrainment rate diagnosed from the rate of plume dilution with distance shows a marked increase in entrainment at approximately 125 km from the sill, leading to a net dilution consistent with previous reports of a doubling of overflow transport measured by current meter arrays. The entrainment rate increase is likely related to the increased topographic slopes in the region, compounded by a decrease in interface stratification as the plume is diluted and enters a denser background.

Description: A densely spaced hydrographic survey of the northern Irminger Basin together with satellite-tracked near-surface drifters confirm the intense mesoscale variability within and above the Denmark Strait overflow. In particular, the drifters show distinct cyclonic vortices over the downslope edge of the outflow plume. Growing perturbations such as these can be attributed to the baroclinic instability of a density current. A primitive equation model with periodic boundaries is used to simulate the destabilization of an idealized dense filament on a continental slope that resembles the northeastern Irminger Basin. Unstable waves evolve rapidly if the initial temperature profile is perturbed with a sinusoidal anomaly that exceeds a certain cutoff wavelength. As the waves grow to large amplitudes isolated eddies of both signs develop. Anticyclones form initially within the dense filament and are rich in overflow water. In contrast, cyclones form initially with their center in the ambient water but wrap outflow water around their center, thus containing a mixture of both water types. The nonlinear advection of waters that were originally located within the front between both water masses contributes most significantly to the stronger intensification of the cyclones in comparison with anticyclones. The frontal waters carry positive relative vorticity into the center of the cyclone. The process bears therefore some resemblance to atmospheric frontal cyclogenesis. After saturation there is a bottom jet of overflow water that is confined by counterrotating eddies: anticyclones upslope and cyclones downslope of the overflow core. The parameter dependence of the maximum growth rate is studied, and the implications of eddy-induced mixing for the water mass modification is discussed.

Description: Kimberlite eruptions bring exotic rock fragments and minerals, including diamonds, from deep within the mantle up to the surface. Such fragments are rapidly absorbed into the kimberlite magma so their appearance at the surface implies rapid transport from depth. High spatial resolution Ar-Ar age data on phlogopite grains in xenoliths from Malaita in the Solomon Islands, southwest Pacific, and Elovy Island in the Kola Peninsula, Russia, indicate transport times of hours to days depending upon the magma temperature. In addition, the data show that the phlogopite grains preserve Ar-Ar ages recorded at high temperature in the mantle, 700°C above the conventional closure temperature.

Description: The Alpine Iceman provides a unique window into the Neolithic-Copper Age of Europe. We compared the radiogenic (strontium and lead) and stable (oxygen and carbon) isotope composition of the Iceman's teeth and bones, as well as 40Ar/39Ar mica ages from his intestine, to local geology and hydrology, and we inferred his habitat and range from childhood to adult life. The Iceman's origin can be restricted to a few valleys within ∼60 kilometers south(east) of the discovery site. His migration during adulthood is indicated by contrasting isotopic compositions of enamel, bones, and intestinal content. This demonstrates that the Alpine valleys of central Europe were permanently inhabited during the terminal Neolithic.

Description: A new shipboard current profiler, a 75-kHz ocean surveyor, was operationally used during two research cruises in the tropical Atlantic and the subpolar North Atlantic, respectively. Here, a report is presented on the first experience with this instrument in two very different current regimes, in the Tropics with large vertical shears, and in the subpolar regime with mainly barotropic flow. The ocean surveyor continuously measured currents in the upper ocean from near the surface to about 500–700-m depth. The measurement range showed a dependence on the regional and temporal variations of scattering particles and on the intensity of swell and wind waves. Statistical comparisons are performed with on-station lowered acoustic Doppler current profiler (LADCP) profiles and underway measurements by classic shipboard acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) measurements. Accuracy estimates for hourly averaged ocean surveyor currents result in errors of about 1 cm s–1 for on-station data and of 2–4 cm s–1 for underway measurements, depending on the regional abundance of scatterers and on the weather conditions encountered.

Description: The World Ocean Circulation Experiment has established Lagrangian observations with neutrally buoyant floats as a routine tool in the study of deep-sea currents. Here a novel variant of the well-proven RAFOS concept for seeding floats at locations where they can be triggered on a timed basis is introduced. This cost-effective method obviates the need to revisit sites with a high-priced research vessel each time floats are to be deployed. It enables multiple Lagrangian time series, for example, for the observation of intermediate point sources of water masses, which are independent but have identical start points. This can be done even in environmentally challenging regions such as below the ice. The successfully tested autonomous float park concept does not rely on a release carousel moored on the seafloor. Instead, a second release was added to the standard RAFOS float for optional delay of regular drift missions. A float park can easily be installed by a conductivity–temperature–depth recorder system with a slightly modified rosette sampler.

Description: Two major water masses dominate the deep layers in the Mariana and Caroline Basins: the Lower Circumpolar Water (LCPW), arriving from the Southern Ocean along the slopes north of the Marshall Islands, and the North Pacific Deep Water (NPDW) reaching the region from the northeastern Pacific Ocean. Hydrographic and moored observations and multibeam echosounding were performed in the East Mariana and the East Caroline Basins to detail watermass distributions and flow paths in the area. The LCPW enters the East Mariana Basin from the east. At about 13°N, however, in the southern part of the basin, a part of this water mass arrives in a southward western boundary flow along the Izu–Ogasawara–Mariana Ridge. Both hydrographic observations and moored current measurements lead to the conclusion that this water not only continues westward to the West Mariana Basin as suggested before, but also provides bottom water to the East Caroline Basin. The critical throughflow regions were identified by multibeam echosounding at the Yap Mariana Junction between the East and West Mariana Basins and at the Caroline Ridge between the East Mariana and East Caroline Basins. The throughflow is steady between the East and West Mariana Basins, whereas more variability is found at the Caroline Ridge. At both locations, throughflow fluctuations are correlated with watermass property variations suggesting layer-thickness changes. The total transport to the two neighboring basins is only about 1 Sverdrup (1Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) but has considerable impact on the watermass structure in these basins. Estimates are given for the diapycnal mixing that is required to balance the inflow into the East Caroline Basin. Farther above in the water column, the high-silica tongue of NPDW extends from the east to the far southwestern corner of the East Mariana Basin, with transports being mostly southward across the basin.

Description: A new mechanism is proposed that explains two key features of the observed El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon—its irregularity and decadal amplitude changes. Using a low-order ENSO model, the authors show that the nonlinearities in the tropical heat budget can lead to bursting behavior characterized by decadal occurrences of strong El Niño events. La Niña events are not affected, a feature that is also seen in ENSO observations. One key result of this analysis is that decadal variability in the Tropics can be generated without invoking extratropical processes or stochastic forcing. The El Niño bursting behavior simulated by the low-order ENSO model can be understood in terms of the concept of homoclinic and heteroclinic connections. It is shown that this new model for ENSO amplitude modulations and irregularity, although difficult to prove, might explain some features of ENSO dynamics seen in more complex climate models and the observations.

Description: Lowered acoustic Doppler current profilers (LADCPs) have matured from an experimental instrument to an operational hydrographic tool to study ocean dynamics. The data processing, however, is still in a rather primitive state. First, a method to estimate bottom-track velocities using the standard water profile data was developed. Then inverse solutions are presented that enhance the standard data processing by adding external constraints such as bottom-referenced velocity profiles. Depending on the depth of the profile and the ADCP range the inclusion of bottom-track data can reduce the local velocity errors by a significant factor. The least squares framework also allows for simplified error analysis of the LADCP system and some of the trade-offs are discussed.

Description: A new approach based on statistical estimation is proposed for the analysis of tomographic traveltime data in cases of significant nonlinear dependence of the traveltimes on the sound-speed variations. Traditional tomography schemes based on linear perturbative inversions about a single, a priori fixed background state cannot properly handle such cases since the linearized model relations will lead to considerable inversion errors, depending on the extent of nonlinearity. In contrast, the background state is considered here as a variable unknown quantity to be estimated from the traveltime data, simultaneously with the peak identification function and the sound-speed perturbation. Using the maximum likelihood approach and the Gaussian assumption, the statistical estimation problem reduces to a weighted least squares problem to be solved simultaneously for the three unknown quantities. A posteriori inversion-error estimates are derived accounting also for uncertainties in the background selection and the peak identification. The proposed method is applied to nine-month-long traveltime data from the Thetis-2 experiment, conducted from January to October 1994 in the Western Mediterranean Sea, where the variability of the ocean environment gives rise to significant nonlinear dependencies between sound-speed and traveltime variations. The recovered temporal variability and stratification compare well with independent XBT observations.

Description: Sea surface temperature (SST) observations in the North Atlantic indicate the existence of strong multidecadal variability with a unique spatial structure. It is shown by means of a new global climate model, which does not employ flux adjustments, that the multidecadal SST variability is closely related to variations in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The close correspondence between the North Atlantic SST and THC variabilities allows, in conjunction with the dynamical inertia of the THC, for the prediction of the slowly varying component of the North Atlantic climate system. It is shown additionally that past variations of the North Atlantic THC can be reconstructed from a simple North Atlantic SST index and that future, anthropogenically forced changes in the THC can be easily monitored by observing SSTs. The latter is confirmed by another state-of-the-art global climate model. Finally, the strong multidecadal variability may mask an anthropogenic signal in the North Atlantic for some decades.

Description: Numerical experiments are performed to examine the causes of variability of Atlantic Ocean SST during the period covered by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis (1958-98). Three ocean models are used. Two are mixed layer models: one with a 75-m-deep mixed layer and the other with a variable depth mixed layer. For both mixed layer models the ocean heat transports are assumed to remain at their diagnosed climatological values. The third model is a full dynamical ocean general circulation model (GCM). All models are coupled to a model of the subcloud atmospheric mixed layer (AML). The AML model computes the air temperature and humidity by balancing surface fluxes, radiative cooling, entrainment at cloud base, advection and eddy heat, and moisture transports. The models are forced with NCEP-NCAR monthly mean winds from 1958 to 1998. The ocean mixed layer models adequately reproduce the dominant pattern of Atlantic Ocean climate variability in both its spatial pattern and time dependence. This pattern is the familiar tripole of alternating zonal bands of SST anomalies stretching between the subpolar gyre and the subtropics. This SST pattern goes along with a wind pattern that corresponds to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Analysis of the results reveals that changes in wind speed create the subtropical SST anomalies while at higher latitudes changes in advection of temperature and humidity and changes in atmospheric eddy fluxes are important. An observational analysis of the boundary layer energy balance is also performed. Anomalous atmospheric eddy heat fluxes are very closely tied to the SST anomalies. Anomalous horizontal eddy fluxes damp the SST anomalies while anomalous vertical eddy fluxes tend to cool the entire midlatitude North Atlantic during the NAO's high-index phase with the maximum cooling exactly where the SST gradient is strengthened the most. The SSTs simulated by the ocean mixed layer model are compared with those simulated by the dynamic ocean GCM. In the far North Atlantic Ocean anomalous ocean heat transports are equally important as surface fluxes in generating SST anomalies and they act constructively. The anomalous heat transports are associated with anomalous Ekman drifts and are consequently in phase with the changing surface fluxes. Elsewhere changes in surface fluxes dominate over changes in ocean heat transport. These results suggest that almost all of the variability of the North Atlantic SST in the last four decades can be explained as a response to changes in surface fluxes caused by changes in the atmospheric circulation. Changes in the mean atmospheric circulation force the SST while atmospheric eddy fluxes dampen the SST. Both the interannual variability and the longer timescale changes can be explained in this way. While the authors were unable to find evidence for changes in ocean heat transport systematically leading or lagging development of SST anomalies, this leaves open the problem of explaining the causes of the low-frequency variability. Possible causes are discussed with reference to the modeling results.

Description: Zonal transports of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) in the South Atlantic are determined. For this purpose the circulation of intermediate and deep water masses is established on the basis of hydrographic sections from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) and some pre-WOCE sections, using temperature, salinity, nutrients, and anthropogenic tracers. Multiple linear regression is applied to infer missing parameters in the bottle dataset. A linear box-inverse model is used for a set of closed boxes given by sections and continental boundaries. After performing a detailed analysis of water mass distribution, 11 layers are prescribed. Neutral density surfaces are selected as layer interfaces, thus improving the description of water mass distribution in the transition between the subtropical and subpolar latitudes. Constraints for the inverse model include integral meridional salt and phosphorus transports, overall salt and silica conservation, and transports from moored current meter observations. Inferred transport numbers for the mean meridional thermohaline overturning are given. Persistent zonal NADW transport bands are found in the western South Atlantic, in particular eastward flow of relatively new NADW between 20° and 25°S and westward flow of older NADW to the north of this latitude range. The axis of the eastward transport band corresponds to the core of property distributions in this region, suggesting Wüstian flow. Part of the eastward flow appears to cross the Mid-Atlantic Ridge at the Rio de Janeiro Fracture Zone. Results are compared qualitatively with deep float observations and results from general circulation models

Description: Fifteen profiling floats were injected into the deep boundary current off Labrador. They were ballasted to drift in the core depth of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) at 1500-m depth and were deployed in two groups during March and July/August 1997. Initially, for about three months, the floats were drifting within the boundary current, and the flow vectors were used to determine the mean horizontal structure of the Deep Labrador Current, which was found to be about 100 km wide with an average core speed of 18 cm s−1. North of Flemish Cap the boundary current encounters complicated topography around “Orphan Knoll,” and there the LSW outflow splits up into different routes. One obvious LSW path is eastward through the Charlie Gibbs Fracture Zone and another route is a narrow recirculation toward the central Labrador Sea. A surprising result was that none of the floats were able to follow the boundary current southward to the Grand Banks area and exit into the subtropics. Trajectories and temperature profiles of the eastward drifting floats indicate the importance of the North Atlantic Current for dispersing the floats, even at the level of LSW.

Description: The horizontal and vertical structure of large-amplitude internal solitary waves propagating in stratified waters on a continental shelf is investigated by analyzing the results of numerical simulations and in situ measurements. Numerical simulations aimed at obtaining stationary, solitary wave solutions of different amplitudes were carried out using a nonstationary model based on the incompressible two-dimensional Euler equations in the frame of the Boussinesq approximation. The numerical solutions, which refer to different density stratifications typical for midlatitude continental shelves, were obtained by letting an initial disturbance evolve according to the numerical model. Several intriguing characteristics of the structure of the simulated large-amplitude internal solitary waves like, for example, wavelength–amplitude and phase speed–amplitude relationship as well as form of the locus of zero horizontal velocity emerge, consistent with those obtained previously using stationary Euler models. The authors’ approach, which tends to exclude unstable oceanic internal solitary waves as they are filtered out during the evolution process, was also employed to perform a detailed comparison between model results and characteristics of large-amplitude internal solitary waves found in high-resolution in situ data acquired north and south of the Strait of Messina, in the Mediterranean Sea. From this comparison the importance of using higher-order theoretical models for a detailed description of large-amplitude internal solitary waves observed in the real ocean emerge. Implications of the results showing the complexity related to a possible inversion of sea surface manifestations of oceanic internal solitary waves into characteristics of the interior ocean dynamics are finally discussed.

Description: Processes that influence the volume and heat transport across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge system are investigated in a numerical model with ° horizontal resolution. The focus is on the sensitivity of cross-ridge transports and the reaction of the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean circulation to changes in wind stress and buoyancy forcing on seasonal to interannual timescales. A general relation between changes in wind stress or cross-ridge density contrasts and the overturning transport of Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas source water is established from a series of idealized experiments. The relation is used subsequently to interpret changes in an experiment over the years 1992–97 with realistic forcing. On seasonal and interannual timescales there is a clear correlation between heat flux and wind stress curl variability. The realistic model suggests a steady decrease in the strength of the cyclonic subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic with a corresponding decrease in heat transport during the 1990s

Description: The role of mean and stochastic freshwater forcing on the generation of millennial-scale climate variability in the North Atlantic is studied using a low-order coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model. It is shown that millennial-scale oscillations can be excited stochastically, when the North Atlantic Ocean is fresh enough. This finding is used in order to interpret the aftermath of massive iceberg surges (Heinrich events) in the glacial North Atlantic, which are characterized by an excitation of Dansgaard–Oeschger events. Based on model results, it is hypothesized that Heinrich events trigger Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles and that furthermore the occurrence of Heinrich events is dependent on the accumulated climatic effect of a series of Dansgaard–Oeschger events. This scenario leads to a coupled ocean–ice sheet oscillation that shares many similarities with the Bond cycle. Further sensitivity experiments reveal that the timescale of the oscillations can be decomposed into stochastic, linear, and nonlinear deterministic components. A schematic bifurcation diagram is used to compare theoretical results with paleoclimatic data.

Description: Observations from the WOCE PCM-1 moored current meter array east of Taiwan for the period September 1994 to May 1996 are used to derive estimates of the Kuroshio transport at the entrance to the East China Sea. Three different methods of calculating the Kuroshio transport are employed and compared. These methods include 1) a “direct” method that uses conventional interpolation of the measured currents and extrapolation to the surface and bottom to estimate the current structure, 2) a “dynamic height” method in which moored temperature measurements from moorings on opposite sides of the channel are used to estimate dynamic height differences across the current and spatially averaged baroclinic transport profiles, and 3) an “adjusted geostrophic” method in which all moored temperature measurements within the array are used to estimate a relative geostrophic velocity field that is referenced and adjusted by the available direct current measurements. The first two methods are largely independent and are shown to produce very similar transport results. The latter two methods are particularly useful in situations where direct current measurements may have marginal resolution for accurate transport estimates. These methods should be generally applicable in other settings and illustrate the benefits of including a dynamic height measuring capability as a backup for conventional direct transport calculations. The mean transport of the Kuroshio over the 20-month duration of the experiment ranges from 20.7 to 22.1 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) for the three methods, or within 1.3 Sv of each other. The overall mean transport for the Kuroshio is estimated to be 21.5 Sv with an uncertainty of 2.5 Sv. All methods show a similar range of variability of ±10 Sv with dominant timescales of several months. Fluctuations in the transport are shown to have a robust vertical structure, with over 90% of the transport variance explained by a single vertical mode. The moored transports are used to determine the relationship between Kuroshio transport and sea-level difference between Taiwan and the southern Ryukyu Islands, allowing for long-term monitoring of the Kuroshio inflow to the East China Sea.

Description: Measurements of the age difference between coexisting benthic and planktic foraminifera from western equatorial Pacific deep-sea cores suggest that during peak glacial time the radiocarbon age of water at 2-kilometers depth was no greater than that of today. These results make unlikely suggestions that a slowdown in deep-ocean ventilation was responsible for a sizable fraction of the increase of the ratio of carbon-14 (14C) to carbon in the atmosphere and surface ocean during glacial time. Comparison of 14C ages for coexisting wood and planktic foraminifera from the same site suggests that the atmosphere to surface ocean 14C to C ratio difference was not substantially different from today's.

Description: The analysis of high-resolution oceanographic data referring to velocity measurements carried out by means of a vessel-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler on 12 November 2000 in the equatorial Atlantic, at 44°W between 4.5° and 6°N, reveals the presence of three large-amplitude internal solitary waves superimposed on the velocity field associated with the North Equatorial Countercurrent (NECC). These waves were found in the deep ocean, more than 500 km off the continental shelf and far from regions of topographic variations. They propagated toward the north-northeast, strongly inclined with respect to the main axis of the NECC and perpendicular to the Brazilian shelf, as well as to the North Brazil Current, and were characterized by maximum horizontal velocities of about 2 m s−1 and maximum vertical velocities of about 20 cm s−1. The large magnitudes of the measured velocities indicate that the observed waves represent disturbances evolving in a strongly stratified ocean. The distance separating the waves (about 70 km) indicates that the observed features cannot be considered as elements of a single train of internal solitary waves. The waves consist, instead, of truly disconnected, pulselike intense solitary disturbances. This behavior, which strongly differs from that typically observed for trains of tidally generated internal solitary waves, indicates that different mechanisms were possibly involved in their generation and/or evolution.

Description: A systematic modular approach to investigate the respective roles of the ocean and atmosphere in setting El Niño characteristics in coupled general circulation models is presented. Several state-of-the-art coupled models sharing either the same atmosphere or the same ocean are compared. Major results include 1) the dominant role of the atmosphere model in setting El Niño characteristics (periodicity and base amplitude) and errors (regularity) and 2) the considerable improvement of simulated El Niño power spectratoward lower frequencywhen the atmosphere resolution is significantly increased. Likely reasons for such behavior are briefly discussed. It is argued that this new modular strategy represents a generic approach to identifying the source of both coupled mechanisms and model error and will provide a methodology for guiding model improvement.

Description: The ventilation of the permanent thermocline of the Southern Hemisphere gyres is quantified using climatological and synoptic observational data. Ventilation is estimated with three independent methods: the kinematic method provides subduction rates from the vertical and horizontal fluxes through the base of the mixed layer, the water age uses in situ age distribution of thermocline waters, and the annual-mean water mass formation through air–sea interaction is calculated. All three independent estimates agree within their error bars, which are admittedly large. The subduction rates are mainly controlled through their vertical and lateral components with only minor transient eddy contributions. The vertical transfer, derived from Ekman pumping, ventilates over most of the areas of the subtropical gyres, while lateral transfer occurs mainly along the Subtropical and Subantarctic Fronts, where it injects mode and intermediate waters. For the permanent thermocline the overall ventilation of the South Atlantic is about 21 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). Of this, lateral transfer contributes 10 Sv, mainly in the Brazil–Malvinas confluence zone and to the northeast of Drake Passage. The effective vertical transfer at the bottom of the mixed layer is only two-thirds of the Ekman pumping due to strong northward forcing of the mixed layer itself. The Indian Ocean is ventilated at a rate of 35 Sv with equal lateral and vertical contributions. The South Pacific's overall ventilation is 44 Sv of which the lateral input contributes little more than half. West of 130°W, the South Pacific is ventilated through Ekman pumping and with only minor lateral transfer. In the east lateral transfer dominates between 10° and 20°S and along the Subantarctic Front in a narrow density range. Combining overall transports with earlier estimates for the Northern Hemisphere gives a ventilation of the World Ocean's permanent thermocline of about 160 Sv. Analysis of atmospheric reanalysis air–sea flux data reveals an overall increase in the formation of thermocline waters for all three Southern Hemisphere oceans.

Description: Synoptic-scale variability in the air–sea turbulent fluxes in the areas of midlatitudinal western boundary currents is analyzed. In the Gulf Stream area, ocean–atmosphere fluxes on synoptic time- and space scales are clearly coordinated with the propagating synoptic-scale atmospheric transients. The statistical analysis of 6-hourly resolution sea level pressure and surface turbulent fluxes from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis for the period from 1948 to 2000 in the area of strong sea surface temperature gradients in the Gulf Stream gives strong proof for the association between the propagating cyclones and synoptic patterns of surface turbulent fluxes. It is shown that sea–air interaction in this area is controlled by the sharpness of surface temperature gradients in the ocean and by the intensity of the advection of the air masses in different parts of cyclones during the cold-air and warm-air outbreaks. A simple parameter based on the joint consideration of the characteristics of sea surface temperature and sea level pressure fields is used to characterize the synoptic variability of air–sea turbulent fluxes. The effectiveness of the relationship between surface temperature and surface pressure on one side and air–sea flux anomalies on the other vary from year to year in phase with variability in the frequencies of deep atmospheric cyclones in the Gulf Stream area. The limits of applicability of the approach, its sensitivity to higher-resolution sea surface temperature data, and the possibility of its further applications are discussed.

Description: The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) spreading pathways and time scales in the Indian Ocean are investigated using both observational data and two numerical tracer experiments, one being a three-dimensional Lagrangian trajectory experiment and the other a transit-time probability density function (PDF) tracer experiment, in an ocean general circulation model. The model climatology is in agreement with observations and other model results except that speeds of boundary currents are lower. Upon reaching the western boundary within the South Equatorial Current (SEC), the trajectories of the ITF tracers within the thermocline exhibit bifurcation. The Lagrangian trajectory experiment shows that at the western boundary about 38%±5% thermocline ITF water flows southward to join the Agulhas Current, consequently exiting the Indian Ocean, and the rest, about 62%±5%, flows northward to the north of SEC. In boreal summer, ITF water penetrates into the Northern Hemisphere within the Somali Current. The primary spreading pathway of the thermocline ITF water north of SEC is upwelling to the surface layer with subsequent advection southward within the surface Ekman layer toward the southern Indian Ocean subtropics. There it is subducted and advected northward in the upper thermocline to rejoin the SEC. Both the observations and the trajectory experiment suggest that the upwelling occurs mainly along the coast of Somalia during boreal summer and in the open ocean within a cyclonic gyre in the Tropics south of the equator throughout the year. All the ITF water eventually exits the Indian Ocean along the western boundary within the Mozambique Channel and the east coast of Madagascar and, farther south, the Agulhas Current region. The advective spreading time scales, represented by the elapsed time corresponding to the maximum of transit- time PDF, show that in the upper thermocline the ITF crosses the Indian Ocean, from the Makassar Strait to the east coast of the African continent, on a time scale of about 10 yr and reaches the Arabian Sea on a time scale of over 20 yr.

Description: Transient eddies in the atmosphere induce a poleward transport of heat and moisture. A moist static energy budget of the surface layer is determined from the NCEP reanalysis data to evaluate the impact of the storm track. It is found that the transient eddies induce a cooling and drying of the surface layer with a monthly mean maximum of 60 W m−2. The cooling in the midlatitudes extends zonally over the entire basin. The impact of this cooling and drying on surface heat fluxes, sea surface temperature (SST), water mass transformation, and vertical structure of the Pacific is investigated using an ocean model coupled to an atmospheric mixed layer model. The cooling by atmospheric storms is represented by adding an eddy-induced transfer velocity to the mean velocity in an atmospheric mixed layer model. This is based on a parameterization of tracer transport by eddies in the ocean. When the atmospheric mixed layer model is coupled to an ocean model, realistic SSTs are simulated. The SST is up to 3 K lower due to the cooling by storms. The additional cooling leads to enhanced transformation rates of water masses in the midlatitudes. The enhanced shallow overturning cells affect even tropical regions. Together with realistic SST and deep winter mixed layer depths, this leads to formation of homogeneous water masses in the upper North Pacific, in accordance to observations.

Description: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) dictates climate variability from the eastern seaboard of the United States to Siberia and from the Arctic to the subtropical Atlantic, especially during winter. It strongly affects agricultural yields, water management, fish inventories, and terrestrial ecology. In their Perspective, Hurrell, Kushnir, and Visbeck report recent research into the NAO discussed at an American Geophysical Union Chapman Conference at the end of 2000. Much remains to be learned about the NAO, but it seems increasingly less likely that natural variability is the cause for the recent upward NAO trend.

Description: The circulation of the low-salinity Antarctic Intermediate Water in the South Atlantic and the associated dynamical processes are studied, using recent and historical hydrographic profiles, Lagrangian and Eulerian current measurements as well as wind stress observations. The circulation pattern inferred for the Antarctic Intermediate Water supports the hypothesis of an anticyclonic basinwide recirculation of the intermediate water in the subtropics. The eastward current of the intermediate anticyclone is fed mainly by water recirculated in the Brazil Current and by the Malvinas Current. An additional source region is the Polar Frontal zone of the South Atlantic. The transport in the meandering eastward current ranges from 6 to 26 Sv (Sv = 10(6) m(3) s(-1)). The transport of the comparably uniform westward flow of the gyre varies between 10 and 30 Sv. Both transports vary with longitude. At the western boundary near 28 degreesS, in the Santos Bifurcation, the westward current splits into two branches. About three-quarters of the 19 Sv at 40 degreesW go south as an intermediate western boundary current. The remaining quarter flows northward along the western boundary. Simulations with a simple model of the ventilated thermocline reveal that the wind-driven subtropical gyre has a vertical extent of over 1200 m. The transports derived from the simulations suggest that about 90% of the transport in the westward branch of the intermediate gyre and about 50% of the transport in the eastward branch can be attributed to the wind-driven circulation. The structure of the simulated gyre deviates from observations to some extent. The discrepancies between the simulations and the observations are most likely caused by the interoceanic exchange south of Africa, the dynamics of the boundary currents, the nonlinearity, and the seasonal variability of the wind field. A simulation with an inflow/outflow condition for the eastern boundary reduces the transport deviations in the eastward current to about 20%. The results support the hypothesis that the wind field is of major importance for the subtropical circulation of Antarctic Intermediate Water followed by the interoceanic exchange. The simulations suggest that the westward transport in the subtropical gyre undergoes seasonal variations. The transports and the structure of the intermediate subtropical gyre from the Parallel Ocean Climate Model (Semtner-Chervin model) agree better with observations.

Description: The quasi-decadal salinity fluctuations in the upper 300 m of the Labrador Sea are investigated by partitioning all available salinity station data since 1948 by region and bottom depth. There are major freshwater anomalies in the early 1970s (the Great Salinity Anomaly), mid-1980s, and early 1990s. These vary in amplitude throughout the region, being least on the shelf and greatest over the slope region near the Labrador Current. The Labrador Sea cannot be considered a simple conduit for freshwater anomalies originating in the East Greenland Current. There is evidence that local processes modulate the anomaly. The freshwater anomalies in the Labrador Current are approximately twice as large as those in the East Greenland Current. The Baffin Island Current flowing southward through the western Davis Strait is the only local source of freshwater with sufficient volume to account for this increase. The propagation speed, 2–3 cm s−1, of the anomaly along the Labrador Sea margin is much less than the advection speed indicating a highly damped system. The connection of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) with these quasi-decadal salinity fluctuations is most obvious in the Labrador Sea interior, where increased surface buoyancy flux during positive NAO drives deep convective mixing and thus terminates the fresh surface anomalies. Less clear are the processes by which NAO-forced changes of lateral freshwater flux modulate the salinity along the margin. The authors propose a feedback mechanism where, during years of low wind speed, freshwater accumulates offshore of the slope front in the surface layer. The increased upper-layer buoyancy prohibits further mixing, and low salinities persist.

Description: In 1997, a unique hydrographic and chlorofluorocarbon (CFC: component CFC-11) dataset was obtained in the subpolar North Atlantic. To estimate the synopticity of the 1997 data, the recent temporal evolution of the CFC and Labrador Sea Water (LSW) thickness fields are examined. In the western Atlantic north of 50°N, the LSW thickness decreased considerably from 1994–97, while the mean CFC concentrations did not change much. South of 50°N and in the eastern Atlantic, the CFC concentration increased with little or no change in the LSW thickness. On shorter timescales, local anomalies due to the presence of eddies are observed, but for space scales larger than the eddies the dataset can be treated as being synoptic over the 1997 observation period. The spreading of LSW in the subpolar North Atlantic is described in detail using gridded CFC and LSW thickness fields combined with Profiling Autonomous Lagrangian Circulation Explorer (PALACE) float trajectories. The gridded fields are also used to calculate the CFC-11 inventory in the LSW from 40° to 65°N, and from 10° to 60°W. In total, 2300 ± 250 tons of CFC-11 (equivalent to 16.6 million moles) were brought into the LSW by deep convection. In 1997, 28% of the inventory was still found in the Labrador Sea west of 45°W and 31% of the inventory was located in the eastern Atlantic. The CFC inventory in the LSW was used to estimate the lower limits of LSW formation rates. At a constant formation rate, a value of 4.4–5.6 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) is obtained. If the denser modes of LSW are ventilated only in periods with intense convection, the minimum formation rate of LSW in 1988–94 is 8.1–10.8 Sv, and 1.8–2.4 Sv in 1995–97

Description: Time series of hydrographic and transient tracer (3H and 3He) observations from the central Labrador Sea collected between 1991 and 1996 are presented to document the complex changes in the tracer fields as a result of variations in convective activity during the 1990s. Between 1991 and 1993, as atmospheric forcing intensified, convection penetrated to progressively increasing depths, reaching 2300 m in the winter of 1993. Over that period the potential temperature (θ)/salinity (S) properties of Labrador Sea Water stayed nearly constant as surface cooling and downward mixing of freshwater was balanced by excavating and upward mixing of the warmer and saltier Northeast Atlantic Deep Water. It is shown that the net change in heat content of the water column (150–2500 m) between 1991 and 1993 was negligible compared to the estimated mean heat loss over that period (110 W m−2), implying that the lateral convergence of heat into the central Labrador Sea nearly balances the atmospheric cooling on a surprisingly short timescale. Interestingly, the 3H–3He age of Labrador Sea Water increased during this period of intensifying convection. Starting in 1995, winters were milder and convection was restricted to the upper 800 m. Between 1994 and 1996, the evolution of 3H–3He age is similar to that of a stagnant water body. In contrast, the increase in θ and S over that period implies exchange of tracers with the boundaries via both an eddy-induced overturning circulation and along-isopycnal stirring by eddies [with an exchange coefficient of O(500 m2 s−1)]. The authors construct a freshwater budget for the Labrador Sea and quantitatively demonstrate that sea ice meltwater is the dominant cause of the large annual cycle of salinity in the Labrador Sea, both on the shelf and the interior. It is shown that the transport of freshwater by eddies into the central Labrador Sea (140 cm between March and September) can readily account for the observed seasonal freshening. Finally, the authors discuss the role of the eddy-induced overturning circulation with regard to transport and dispersal of the newly ventilated Labrador Sea Water to the boundary current system and compare its strength (2–3 Sv) to the diagnosed buoyancy-forced formation rate of Labrador Sea Water.

Description: The dynamics of the Rhine outflow plume in the proximity of the river mouth is investigated by using remote sensing data and numerical simulations. The remote sensing data consist of 41 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images acquired by the First and Second European Remote Sensing satellites ERS-1 and ERS-2 over the outflow region of the river Rhine. Most of them show sea surface signatures of oceanic phenomena, for example, surface current and wind variations, ship wakes, and oil slicks. In particular, in 36 of these images pronounced frontal features are visible as narrow zones of mainly enhanced, sometimes enhanced/reduced radar backscatter that can be associated with the Rhine surface front. Within the area enclosed by the frontal line, large zones characterized by a lower radar backscatter than in the outer area are often visible. The analysis of the ERS SAR images suggests that the form and the location of the frontal features are mainly linked to the semidiurnal tidal phase in the outflow region, although their variability suggests also that they weakly depend on river discharge, residual currents, and neap-spring tidal cycle. In order to test this observational hypothesis, the results obtained from the analysis of the ERS SAR images are compared with the results obtained from the numerical simulation of the hydrodynamics of the Rhine outflow region carried out using a two-layer, frontal model, which is based on the nonlinear, hydrostatic shallow-water equations on an f plane. The model is forced by prescribing tidal and residual currents and river discharge at the open boundaries. Several simulations are performed by varying the values of these forcing parameters. The numerical results corroborate the observational conjecture: It is found that the form and the location of the simulated interface outcropping lines in the proximity of the river mouth are mainly determined by the semidiurnal tidal phase in the outflow region and that river discharge, residual currents, and neap-spring tidal cycle contribute only secondarily to their determination. Inserting the simulated surface velocity field into a simple radar-imaging model that relates the modulation of the backscattered radar power to the surface velocity convergence in radar look direction, narrow, elongated bands of enhanced radar backscatter emerge near the model frontal line while patches of low radar backscatter appear within the simulated Rhine plume area. The consistency of the model results with the results obtained from the analysis of the SAR images enables one to infer a mean spatial and temporal evolution of the Rhine outflow plume over a semidiurnal tidal cycle from the analysis of spaceborne SAR images acquired during different tidal cycles over the Rhine outflow area and suggests the possibility of using numerical modeling, in conjunction with the analysis of spaceborne measurements, for monitoring the oceanic variability in the Rhine outflow area

Description: Comparisons are made between a time series of meteorological surface layer observational data taken on board the R/V Knorr, and model analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The observational data were gathered during a winter cruise of the R/V Knorr, from 6 February to 13 March 1997, as part of the Labrador Sea Deep Convection Experiment. The surface layer observations generally compare well with both model representations of the wintertime atmosphere. The biases that exist are mainly related to discrepancies in the sea surface temperature or the relative humidity of the analyses. The surface layer observations are used to generate bulk estimates of the surface momentum flux, and the surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. These are then compared with the model-generated turbulent surface fluxes. The ECMWF surface sensible and latent heat flux time series compare reasonably well, with overestimates of only 13% and 10%, respectively. In contrast, the NCEP model overestimates the bulk fluxes by 51% and 27%, respectively. The differences between the bulk estimates and those of the two models are due to different surface heat flux algorithms. It is shown that the roughness length formula used in the NCEP reanalysis project is inappropriate for moderate to high wind speeds. Its failings are acute for situations of large air–sea temperature difference and high wind speed, that is, for areas of high sensible heat fluxes such as the Labrador Sea, the Norwegian Sea, the Gulf Stream, and the Kuroshio. The new operational NCEP bulk algorithm is found to be more appropriate for such areas. It is concluded that surface turbulent flux fields from the ECMWF are within the bounds of observational uncertainty and therefore suitable for driving ocean models. This is in contrast to the surface flux fields from the NCEP reanalysis project, where the application of a more suitable algorithm to the model surface-layer meteorological data is recommended

Description: Aspects of the sea level changes in the western Mediterranean Sea are investigated using a numerical tidal model of the Strait of Gibraltar. As a prerequisite, the performance of this model, that is, a two-dimensional, nonlinear, two-layer, boundary-fitted coordinate numerical model based on the hydrostatic approximation on an f plane, is assessed in the simulation of mean and tidal circulation of the Strait of Gibraltar. The model is forced by imposing mean interface and surface displacements as well as M2, S2, O1, and K1 tidal components along the Atlantic and Mediterranean model open boundaries. Model results are compared with observations and with results obtained from a tidal inverse model for the eastern entrance of the Strait of Gibraltar. In general, good agreement is found. A sensitivity study performed by varying different model parameters shows that the model behaves reasonably well in the simulation of the averaged circulation. The model is then used to investigate the climatological sensitivity of the simulated dynamics in the Strait of Gibraltar to changes in the density difference between Atlantic and Mediterranean waters. For this purpose, given a certain density difference between Atlantic and Mediterranean waters, the authors iteratively searched for that sea level drop between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean that fulfills the mass balance of the Mediterranean. It is found that an increase of the density difference leads to an increase of the exchange flow and to an increase of the sea level drop between the two basins. A trend in the sea level drop of O(1 cm yr−1), such as the one observed between 1994 and 1997, is explained by the model as the result of a trend of O(10−4 yr−1) in the relative density difference between the Mediterranean and Atlantic waters. The observed north–south asymmetry in this trend is also captured by the model, and it is found to arise from changes in the along-strait velocity. Results suggest that the dynamics within the Strait of Gibraltar cannot be neglected when sea level changes in the western Mediterranean basin are investigated.

Description: The so-called equatorial stacked jets are analyzed with ship-board observations and moored time series from the Atlantic Ocean. The features are identified and isolated by comparing vertical wavenumber spectra at the equator with those a few degrees from the equator. Mode-filtering gives clear views of the jets in meridional sections, the typical extent being ±1° in latitude. The vertical structure can be well described (explaining 82% of the variance) by N−1-stretched cosines, with a Gaussian amplitude tapering in the vertical. The stretched wavelengths are somewhat variable. Fitting jets of a fixed (stretched) wavelength to four moored sensors in the depth range 1300–1900 m, allows one to track the vertical phase of the jets with an rms error of 30°–45°. The resulting fit from a 20-month moored time series shows long periods of unchanging jet conditions and intermittent times of high variability. There is no significant vertical propagation on these timescales nor a seasonal reversal. Using a composite from many different experiments, interannual variability is visible, however. A possible mechanism for the stacked jets is inertial instability, resulting from background meridional shears at the equator. A condition is that the Ertel potential vorticity becomes zero somewhere, due to meridional asymmetries in the zonal flows. The ship-board observations show that this may be approximately fulfilled by the instantaneous zonal low-mode flows at various depths, resulting from an excess of zonal momentum south of the equator most of the time. Inertial instability should act to redistribute this zonal momentum, and our mooring data show indeed persistent northward momentum flux, but not at the depth levels expected. The momentum transport might suggest that the jets can also flux or mix other properties across the equator.

Description: Overexploitation threatens the future of many large vertebrates. In the ocean, tunas and sea turtles are current conservation concerns because of this intense pressure. The status of most shark species, in contrast, remains uncertain. Using the largest data set in the Northwest Atlantic, we show rapid large declines in large coastal and oceanic shark populations. Scalloped hammerhead, white, and thresher sharks are each estimated to have declined by over 75% in the past 15 years. Closed-area models highlight priority areas for shark conservation, and the need to consider effort reallocation and site selection if marine reserves are to benefit multiple threatened species.

Description: The Redfield ratio [carbon:nitrogen:phosphorus (C:N:P)] of particle flux to the deep ocean is a key factor in marine biogeochemical cycling. Changes in oceanic carbon sequestration have been linked to variations in the Redfield ratio on geological time scales, but this ratio generally is assumed to be constant with time in the modern ocean. However, deep-water Redfield ratios in the northern hemisphere show evidence for temporal trends over the past five decades. The North Atlantic Ocean exhibits a rising N:P ratio, which may be related to increased deposition of atmospheric nitrous oxides from anthropogenic N emissions. In the North Pacific Ocean, increasing C:N and C:P ratios are accompanied by rising remineralization rates, which suggests intensified export production. Stronger export of carbon in this region may be due to enhanced bioavailability of aeolian iron. These findings imply that the biological part of the marine carbon cycle currently is not in steady state.

Description: Meridional transports of mass, heat, nutrients, and carbon across coast-to-coast WOCE and pre-WOCE sections between 11°S and 45°S in the South Atlantic are calculated using an inverse model. Usually salt preservation is used as a condition in the inverse model, and only in the case of heat transport the condition of zero total mass transport is taken instead. Other constraints include silica conservation, prescribed southward fluxes of salt and phosphate, and transports in the southward Brazil Current and in the northward Antarctic Bottom Water flow obtained from WOCE moored current meter arrays. The constraints set the underdetermined system of linear equations of the inverse model whose solutions depend on weights, scales, and matrix ranks. The discussion emphasizes the sensitivity of the fluxes to changes in the model input. The transports given in the following are obtained as the means of “reasonable” solutions at 30°S. The error numbers in parentheses include uncertainties due to wind stress and temporal variability, the numbers without parentheses do not contain these terms:0.53 ± 0.03 (0.09) Tg s−1 mass to the south, 0.29 ± 0.05 (0.24) PW heat to the north, 15 ± 120 (500) kmol s−1 oxygen to the south, 121 ± 22 (75) kmol s−1 nitrate to the south, 64 ± 110 (300) silica to the north, and 1997 ± 215 (600) kmol s−1 dissolved inorganic carbon to the south. The above errors in transports are obviously dominated by uncertainties in wind stress and temporal variability. The divergence in meridional heat and mass transport is consistent with integral surface flux changes between corresponding zonal bands. The mass compensation of southward flowing North Atlantic Deep Water occurs to a greater extent in the warm surface waters than in the Antarctic Intermediate Water below. If one follows the arguments of earlier authors on the relation between meridional fluxes and the significance of the two possible pathways for the global thermohaline circulation, the warm water path south of Africa seems to be somewhat more important than the cold water path through Drake Passage.

Description: In the Campeche Knolls, in the southern Gulf of Mexico, lava-like flows of solidified asphalt cover more than 1 square kilometer of the rim of a dissected salt dome at a depth of 3000 meters below sea level. Chemosynthetic tubeworms and bivalves colonize the sea floor near the asphalt, which chilled and contracted after discharge. The site also includes oil seeps, gas hydrate deposits, locally anoxic sediments, and slabs of authigenic carbonate. Asphalt volcanism creates a habitat for chemosynthetic life that may be widespread at great depth in the Gulf of Mexico.

Description: Analyses of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SST) from observations for the period 1903–94 and four different general circulation models (GCMs) were conducted. The two dominant EOFs of all datasets are characterized by two patterns, which are centered in the trade wind zones, at roughly 15°N and 15°S, respectively. The two patterns are uncorrelated at any lag and the time spectra of the corresponding principle components are consistent with red noise. The SST variability is strongly correlated with wind stress anomalies in the trade wind zones. The correlations between the wind stress and the SST, as well as the correlation between the net heat flux and the SST anomalies are consistent with the assumption that the variability of the upper tropical Atlantic Ocean is forced by the atmosphere. Dynamic feedbacks of the tropical Atlantic Ocean are less important. The variability in the trade wind zones shows a weak correlation with the ENSO mode in the tropical Pacific.

Description: Most global climate models simulate a weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) in response to enhanced greenhouse warming. Both surface warming and freshening in high latitudes, the so-called sinking region, contribute to the weakening of the THC. Some models even simulate a complete breakdown of the THC at sufficiently strong forcing. Here results are presented from a state-of-the-art global climate model that does not simulate a weakening of the THC in response to greenhouse warming. Large-scale air–sea interactions in the Tropics, similar to those operating during present-day El Niños, lead to anomalously high salinities in the tropical Atlantic. These are advected into the sinking region, thereby increasing the surface density and compensating the effects of the local warming and freshening.

Description: Connections between the tropical and midlatitude Pacific on decadal timescales are examined using a 137-yr run of a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. It is shown that the model does a credible job of simulating both ENSO-scale and decadal-scale variability, and that there are statistically significant correlations between the midlatitudes and Tropics on decadal timescales. Three physical mechanisms linking the regions are examined: 1) Oceanic advection along isopycnal surfaces from the midlatitude subduction regions to the Tropics, 2) coastally trapped or Kelvin wave propagation between the Tropics and midlatitudes, and 3) near-simultaneous communication between the regions affected by changes in the atmosphere. It is found that communication via the atmosphere explains the strongest correlations found in the model. Further evidence is presented that is consistent with the idea that midlatitude sea surface temperature anomalies drive changes in the trade wind system that alter the east–west slope of the tropical thermocline, thereby effecting decadal-timescale changes in ENSO activity.

Description: The interannual variability of the Indian Ocean SST is investigated by analyzing data from observations and an integration of a global coupled GCM (CGCM) ECHO-2. First, it is demonstrated that the CGCM is capable of producing realistic tropical climate variability. Second, it is shown that a considerable part of the interannual variability in Indian Ocean SST can be described as the response to interannual fluctuations over the Pacific related to ENSO. Although the Indian Ocean region also exhibits ENSO-independent interannual variability, this paper focuses on the ENSO-induced component only. Large-scale SST anomalies of the same sign as those observed in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during ENSO extremes develop in the entire tropical and subtropical Indian Ocean with a time lag of about 4 months. This lead–lag relationship is found in both the observations and the CGCM. Using the CGCM output, it is shown that the ENSO signal is carried into the Indian Ocean mainly through anomalous surface heat fluxes.

Description: The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) was established to study and intercompare climate simulations made with coupled ocean-atmosphere-cryosphere-land GCMs. There are two main phases (CMIP1 and CMIP2), which study, respectively, 1) the ability of models to simulate current climate, and 2) model simulations of climate change due to an idealized change in forcing (a 1% per year CO2 increase). Results from a number of CMIP projects were reported at the first CMIP Workshop held in Melbourne, Australia, in October 1998. Some recent advances in global coupled modeling related to CMIP were also reported. Presentations were based on preliminary unpublished results. Key outcomes from the workshop were that 1) many observed aspects of climate variability are simulated in global coupled models including the North Atlantic oscillation and its linkages to North Atlantic SSTs, El Niño-like events, and monsoon interannual variability; 2) the amplitude of both high- and low-frequency global mean surface temperature variability in many global coupled models is less than that observed, with the former due in part to simulated ENSO in the models being generally weaker than observed, and the latter likely to be at least partially due to the uncertainty in the estimates of past radiative forcing; 3) an El Niño-like pattern in the mean SST response with greater surface warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific than the western equatorial Pacific is found by a number of models in global warming climate change experiments, but other models have a more spatially uniform or even a La Niña-like, response; 4) flux adjustment, by definition, improves the simulation of mean present-day climate over oceans, does not guarantee a drift-free climate, but can produce a stable base state in some models to enable very long term (1000 yr and longer) integrations-in these models it does not appear to have a major effect on model processes or model responses to increasing CO2; and 5) recent multicentury integrations show that a stable surface climate can be attained without flux adjustment (though still with some systematic simulation errors).

Description: The interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) is studied with observational data and a hierarchy of coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). Special attention is given to the question whether an oscillatory dipole mode exists in the tropical Indian Ocean region with centers east and west of 80°E. Our observational analyses indicate that dipole-like variability can be explained as an oscillatory mode only in the context of ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation). A dipole-like structure in the SST anomalies independent of ENSO was found also. Our series of coupled model experiments shows that ocean dynamics is not important to this type of dipole-like SST variability. It is forced by surface heat flux anomalies that are integrated by the thermal inertia ofthe oceanic mixed layer, which reddens the SST spectrum.

Description: The response of the Max Planck Institutes ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model to a prescribed decade-long positive anomaly in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the North Atlantic is investigated. Two 10-yr realizations of the anomaly experiment are compared against a 100-yr control run of the model with seasonally varying climatological SST using a model spatial resolution of T42. In addition to the time-mean response, particular attention is paid to changes in intraseasonal variability, expressed in terms of North Atlantic?European weather regimes. The model regimes are quite realistic. Substantial differences are found in the 700-mb geopotential height field response between the two decadal realizations. The time-mean response in the first sample decade is characterized by the positive (zonal) phase of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO); this response can be identified with changes in the frequency of occurrence of certain weather regimes by about one standard deviation. (Preliminary results of this numerical experiment were reported at the Atlantic Climate Variability Workshop held at the Lamont?Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, New York, 24?26 September 1997.) By contrast, the second SST anomaly decade shows a localized trough centered over the British Isles; it projects less strongly onto the models intrinsic weather regimes. The control run itself exhibits pronounced decade-to-decade variations in the weather regimes frequency of occurrence as well as in its NAO index. The two 10-yr anomaly experiments are insufficient, in length and number, to identify a robust SST response above this level of intrinsic variability.

Description: During an almost yearlong period of observations made with a current meter in the fracture zone between the Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas) and South Georgia, several overflow events were recorded at a depth of 3000 meters carrying cold bottom water from the Scotia Sea into the Argentine Basin. The outflow bursts of Scotia Sea bottom water, a mixing product of Weddell Sea and eastern Pacific bottom water, were associated with typical speeds of more than 28 centimeters per second toward the northwest and characteristic temperatures below 0.6°C. The maximum 24-hour average speed of 65 centimeters per second, together with a temperature of 0.29°C, was encountered on 14 November 1980 at a water depth of 2973 meters, 35 meters above the sea floor.

Description: The last glacial period was far from quiet. During so-called Heinrich events, large armadas of icebergs were shed from the ice sheet that covered much of North America. The tracks of debris left by the melting icebergs can still be seen in sediment cores from the North Atlantic. In their Perspective, Broecker and Hemming report from a recent miniconference that attempted to chart the climatic impacts of these events.

Description: The temporal changes in the low-frequency thermal structure during a two-week period in August-September 1978 are discussed from moored data collected during the JASIN experiment. While some changes in the thermal structure appear to be related to local winds, the dominant low-frequency variability in the seasonal thermocline can be explained as horizontal advection of a spatially varying temperature field, and associated thermal wind, by geostrophic currents with little vertical motion or mixing required.

Description: During the Medieval Warm Period (800 to 1200 A.D.), the Vikings colonized Greenland. In his Perspective, Broecker discusses whether this warm period was global or regional in extent. He argues that it is the last in a long series of climate fluctuations in the North Atlantic, that it was likely global, and that the present warming should be attributed in part to such an oscillation, upon which the warming due to greenhouse gases is superimposed.

Description: Isolated compact anticyclonic eddies or salt lenses were found in the Canary Basin. Hydrographic surveys of three such lenses show large anomalies of salinity and temperature (∼0.8, 2.5°C). They are centered at ∼1100 m, have a vertical extent of up to 900 m and radii of ∼50 km. Current meter records indicate anticyclonic velocities up to 29 cm s−1. Fine structure with vertical scales of ∼20 m and less, possibly due to intrusive decay, appears at the outer edges of the lenses whereas the centers are free of such structure. The probability of finding a salt lens at any station in the Canary Basin is fairly high (∼0.08).

Description: Two hypotheses have been put forward to explain the large and abrupt climate changes that punctuated glacial time. One attributes such changes to reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation and the other to changes in tropical atmosphere-ocean dynamics. In an attempt to distinguish between these hypotheses, two lines of evidence are examined. The first involves the timing of the freshwater injections to the northern Atlantic that have been suggested as triggers for the global impacts associated with the Younger Dryas and Heinrich events. The second has to do with evidence for precursory events associated with the Heinrich ice-rafted debris layers in the northern Atlantic and with the abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger warmings recorded in the Santa Barbara Basin.

Description: We have reconstructed the glacial-age distribution of carbonate ion concentration in the deep waters of the equatorial ocean on the basis of differences in weight between glacial and Holocene foraminifera shells picked from a series of cores spanning a range of water depth on the western Atlantic's Ceara Rise and the western Pacific's Ontong Java Plateau. The results suggest that unlike today's ocean, sizable vertical gradients in the carbonate ion concentration existed in the glacial-age deep ocean. In the equatorial Pacific, the concentration increased with depth, and in the Atlantic, it decreased with depth. In addition, the contrast between the carbonate ion concentration in deep waters produced in the northern Atlantic and deep water in the Pacific appears to have been larger than in today's ocean.

Description: Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses (rotated or not) are widely used in climate research. In recent years there have been several studies in which EOF analyses were used to highlight potential physical mechanisms associated with climate variability. For example, several SST modes were identified such as the “Tropical Atlantic Dipole,” the “Tropical Indian Ocean Dipole,” and different SLP modes in the Northern Hemisphere winter. In this note it is emphasized that caution should be used when trying to interpret these statistically derived modes and their significance. Indeed, from a synthetic example it is shown that patterns derived from EOF analyses can be misleading at times and associated with very little climate physics.

Description: The bifurcation behavior of a conceptual heat–salt oscillator model is analyzed by means of numerical continuation methods. A global (homoclinic) bifurcation acts as an organizing center for the dynamics of the simplified convective model. It originates from a codimension-2 bifurcation in an extended parameter space. Comparison with earlier work by Cessi shows that the intriguing stochastic thermohaline excitability can be understood from the bifurcation structure of the model. It is argued that global bifurcations may play a crucial role in determining long-term variability of the thermohaline circulation.

Description: Recent observational studies have shown that the centers of action of interannual variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were located farther eastward during winters of the period 1978–97 compared to previous decades of the twentieth century. In this study, which focuses on the winter season (December–March), new diagnostics characterizing this shift are presented. Further, the importance of this shift for NAO-related interannual climate variability in the North Atlantic region is discussed. It is shown that an NAO-related eastward shift in variability can be found for a wide range of different parameters like the number of deep cyclones, near-surface air temperature, and turbulent surface heat flux throughout the North Atlantic region. By using a near-surface air temperature dataset that is homogenous with respect to the kind of observations used, it is shown that the eastward shift is not an artifact of changes in observational practices that took place around the late 1970s. Finally, an EOF-based Monte Carlo test is developed to quantify the probability of changes in the spatial structure of interannual NAO variability for a relatively short (20 yr) time series given multivariate “white noise.” It is estimated that the likelihood for differences in the spatial structure of the NAO between two independent 20-yr periods, which are similar (as measured by the angle and pattern correlation between two NAO patterns) to the observed differences, to occur just by chance is about 18%. From the above results it is argued that care has to be taken when conclusions about long-term properties of NAO-related climate variability are being drawn from relatively short recent observational data (e.g., 1978–97).

Description: A method is presented to reconstruct decadal variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The spectral characteristics of the NAO on time scales of decades and longer are of particular interest for the understanding of North Atlantic ocean–atmosphere interactions. The reconstruction is based on a transfer model calibration that uses bandpass-filtered time series. The maximum overlap discrete wavelet transform (MODWT) is applied for decomposing the time series variance into different time scales. A total of 43 proxies, including Greenland ice cores and European tree-ring chronologies, are selected and regionally grouped providing four independent reconstructions for the period 1700–1978. The mean reconstruction agrees well with two recently published reconstructions during most of the time period. However, there are considerable differences in the earliest part before 1750. Running correlations between the reconstructions indicate that time-dependent relations exist among the different NAO reconstructions. The results suggest that the geographical distribution of proxies strongly affects the reconstruction and could explain some of the apparent discrepancies among the reconstructions recently published in literature. In the early eighteenth century, external forcing (solar, volcanic) seems to mask the NAO signature within the proxies

Description: The deep circulation and related transports of the southern Labrador Sea are determined from direct current observations from ship surveys and a moored current-meter array. The measurements covered a time span from summer 1997 to 1999 and show a well-defined deep boundary current extending approximately out to the 3300-m depth contour and weak reverse currents farther offshore. The flow has a strong barotropic component, and significant baroclinic flow is only found in the shallow Labrador Current at the shelf break and associated with a deep core of Denmark Strait Overflow Water. The total deep-water transport below σΘ = 27.74 kg m−3 was 26 ± 5 Sv (Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) comprising Labrador Sea Water (LSW), Gibbs Fracture Zone Water (GFZW), and Denmark Strait Overflow Water (DSOW). Intraseasonal variability of the flow and transport was high, ranging from 15 to 35 Sv, and the annual means differed by 17%. A seasonal cycle is confined to the shallow Labrador Current; in its deeper part, where the mean flow is still strong, no obvious seasonality could be detected. The transport of the interior anticyclonic recirculation was estimated from lowered acoustic Doppler current profiler stations and geostrophy, yielding about 9 Sv. Thus, the net deep-water outflow from the Labrador Sea was about 17 Sv. The baroclinic transport of GFZW and DSOW referenced to the depth of the isopycnal σΘ = 27.80 kg m−3 is only about one-third of the total transport in these layers. Longer-term variations of the total transports are not represented well by the baroclinic contribution.

Description: In contrast to the atmosphere, knowledge about interdecadal variability of the North Atlantic circulation is relatively restricted. It is the objective of this study to contribute to understanding how the North Atlantic circulation responds to a forcing by the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) on interdecadal timescales. For this purpose, the authors analyze observed atmospheric and sea surface temperature (SST) data along with the response of an ocean general circulation model to a realistic monthly surface flux forcing that is solely associated with the NAO for the period 1865–1997. In agreement with previous studies, it is shown that the relationship between the local forcing by the NAO and observed SST anomalies on interdecadal timescales points toward the importance of oceanic dynamics in generating SST anomalies. A comparison between observed and modeled SST anomalies reveals that the model results can be used to assess interdecadal variability of the North Atlantic circulation. The observed/modeled developments of interdecadal SST anomalies during the periods 1915–39 and 1960–84 against the local damping influence from the NAO can be traced back to the lagged response (10–20 yr) of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and the subpolar gyre strength to interdecadal variability of the NAO. Additional sensitivity experiments suggest that primarily interdecadal variability in the surface net heat flux forcing associated with the NAO governs interdecadal changes of the North Atlantic circulation

Description: Experiments with a suite of North Atlantic general circulation models are used to examine the sources of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the Labrador Sea. A high-resolution model version (112°) quantitatively reproduces the observed signature. A particular feature of the EKE in the Labrador Sea is its pronounced seasonal cycle, with a maximum intensity in early winter, as already found in earlier studies based on altimeter data. In contrast to a previously advanced hypothesis, the seasonally varying eddy field is not related to a forcing by high-frequency wind variations but can be explained by a seasonally modulated instability of the West Greenland Current (WGC). The main source of EKE in the Labrador Sea is an energy transfer due to Reynolds interaction work (barotropic instability) in a confined region near Cape Desolation where the WGC adjusts to a change in the topographic slope: Geostrophic contours tend to converge upstream of Cape Desolation, such that the topographically guided WGC narrows as well and becomes barotropically unstable. The eddies spawned from the WGC instability area, dominating the EKE in the interior Labrador Sea, are predominantly anticyclonic with warm and saline cores in the upper kilometer of the water column, while the few cyclones originating as well from the instability area show a more depth-independent structure. Companion experiments with a ⅓° model exhibit the strength of the WGC, influenced by either changes in the wind stress or heat flux forcing, as a leading factor determining seasonal to interannual changes of EKE in the Labrador Sea

Description: Climate policy needs to address the multidecadal to centennial time scale of climate change. Although the realization of short-term targets is an important first step, to be effective climate policies need to be conceived as long-term programs that will achieve a gradual transition to an essentially emission-free economy on the time scale of a century. This requires a considerably broader spectrum of policy measures than the primarily market-based instruments invoked for shorter term mitigation policies. A successful climate policy must consist of a dual approach focusing on both short-term targets and long-term goals

Description: For goal-directed arm movements, the nervous system generates a sequence of motor commands that bring the arm toward the target. Control of the octopus arm is especially complex because the arm can be moved in any direction, with a virtually infinite number of degrees of freedom. Here we show that arm extensions can be evoked mechanically or electrically in arms whose connection with the brain has been severed. These extensions show kinematic features that are almost identical to normal behavior, suggesting that the basic motor program for voluntary movement is embedded within the neural circuitry of the arm itself. Such peripheral motor programs represent considerable simplification in the motor control of this highly redundant appendage.

Description: Aspects of the decay of stable frontal warm-core eddies in the deep ocean are investigated using a new numerical layered “frontal” model that solves the nonlinear, reduced-gravity, shallow-water equations for a horizontally inhomogeneous, viscous fluid on an f plane. After a discussion on aspects of the numerical techniques implemented to allow for the eddy expansions and contractions at the sea surface, for the first time the capability of a numerical model of reproducing the evolution of analytical nonstationary frontal vortices is explored. This step is necessary, as far as different phenomena related to the dynamics of these oceanic features are to be studied numerically. In fact the comparison between numerical and analytical inviscid solutions allows for a quantification of the numerical dissipation affecting the simulated solutions. This dissipation is found to be very small in this numerical model: The simulated lifetimes are larger than those of most of the frontal eddies observed in the World Ocean. On this basis, the eddy decay due to interfacial (linear and quadratic) friction, harmonic horizontal momentum diffusion, as well as linear ambient-water entrainment is investigated. It is found that interfacial friction represents a much more efficient mechanism than horizontal diffusion and water entrainment in inducing the eddy decay as well as in damping the eddy pulsations. It is thus suggested that internal wave radiation due to vortex pulsation can represent a relevant mechanism for the dissipation of the vortex energy in a stratified ambient ocean only episodically. Finally, a critical discussion about the appropriateness of the different approximations assumed in the investigation is presented. In particular, the appropriateness of the reduced-gravity assumption is discussed. Results are consistent with those obtained analytically in the frame of the frontal-geostrophic theory: Although the effect of an active ambient layer on the vortex dynamics is found to be virtually absent only for unrealistically large water depths, it appears that the reduced-gravity model describes warm-core eddies acceptably for values of the ratio between maximum vortex thickness and total water depth typical for Gulf Stream rings.

Description: Zonally symmetric fluctuations of the midlatitude westerly winds characterize the primary mode of atmospheric variability in the Southern Hemisphere during all seasons. This is true not only in observations but also in an unforced 15 000-yr integration of a coarse-resolution (R15) coupled ocean–atmosphere model. Here it is documented how this mode of atmospheric variability, known as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), generates ocean circulation and sea ice variations in the model integration on interannual to centennial timescales that are tightly in phase with the SAM. The positive phase of the SAM is associated with an intensification of the surface westerlies over the circumpolar ocean (around 60°S), and a weakening of the surface westerlies farther north. This induces Ekman drift to the north at all longitudes of the circumpolar ocean, and Ekman drift to the south at around 30°S. Through mass continuity, the Ekman drift generates anomalous upwelling along the margins of the Antarctic continent, and downwelling around 45°S. The anomalous flow diverging from the Antarctic continent also increases the vertical tilt of the isopycnals in the Southern Ocean, so that a more intense circumpolar current is also closely associated with positive SAM. In addition, the anomalous divergent flow advects sea ice farther north, resulting in an increase in sea ice coverage. Finally, positive SAM drives increases in poleward heat transport at about 30°S, while decreases occur in the circumpolar region. Ocean and sea ice anomalies of the opposite sign occur when the SAM is negative. The ocean and sea ice fluctuations associated with the SAM constitute a significant fraction of simulated ocean variability poleward of 30°S year-round. The robustness of the mechanisms relating the SAM to oceanic variability suggests that the SAM is likely an important source of large-scale variability in the real Southern Hemisphere ocean.

Description: Two configurations of a primitive-equation model of the North Atlantic are analyzed with respect to the simulated cycling of energy, mass, and heat in the upper ocean. One model is eddy-permitting (1/3° horizontal resolution), the other one is eddy-resolving (1/9° resolution), with both models using identical topographies and identical forcing fields at the surface and lateral boundaries. Besides showing some improvement in the simulated mean circulation and heat budgets, the eddy-resolving model reaches good agreement with satellite altimeter measurements of sea surface height variability. An unexpected finding of the model intercomparison is that simulated winter mixed layer depths in mid and high latitudes turn out to be systematically shallower by some 50 to 500 m in the higher resolution run, thereby agreeing better with observations than the 1/3° model results. This model improvement is related to enhanced levels of baroclinic instability leading to a decrease in potential energy and an associated increase in stratification. In the high-resolution model, shear-induced tilting of lateral density gradients generates stratification within the mixed layer itself, at a rate sufficient to set off an average surface heat loss of 5 W m–2 in mid and high latitudes. Although this is small compared to present uncertainties in surface heat fluxes, the resulting reduction in mixed layer depths may be important for an accurate simulation of water mass formation, air–sea gas exchange, and marine biological production. With traditional formulations of mixed layer physics assuming that properties are set by purely vertical mixing, and parameterizations of lateral subgrid-scale mixing often being tapered to zero in the mixed layer, present mixing schemes would have to be modified in order to account for eddy-induced generation of stratification in the surface mixed layer in noneddy-resolving ocean models.

Description: A new type of ocean general circulation model with simplified physics is described and tested for various simple wind-driven circulation problems. The model consists of the vorticity balance of the depth-averaged flow and a hierarchy of equations for “vertical moments” of density and baroclinic velocity. The first vertical density moment is the (vertically integrated) potential energy, which is used to describe the predominant link between the barotropic and the baroclinic oceanic flow in the presence of sloping topography. Tendency equations for the vertical moments of density and baroclinic velocity and an appropriate truncation of the coupled hierarchy of moments are derived that, together with the barotropic vorticity balance, yield a closed set of equations describing the barotropic–baroclinic interaction (BARBI) model of the oceanic circulation. Idealized companion experiments with a numerical implementation of the BARBI model and a primitive equation model indicate that wave propagation properties and baroclinic adjustments are correctly represented in BARBI in midlatitudes as well as in equatorial latitudes. Furthermore, a set of experiments with a realistic application to the Atlantic/Southern Ocean system reproduces important aspects that have been previously reported by studies of gyre circulations and circumpolar currents using full primitive equation models