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  • Articles  (2,546,569)
  • Other Sources  (2,117)
  • Institute of Physics  (1,082,725)
  • Wiley  (1,037,471)
  • Oxford University Press  (428,490)
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  • 1
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    Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change (2020)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-22
    Description: Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at ∼2-3%/°C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in-storm and larger-scale feedback processes, while changes in large-scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population.
    Description: Published
    Description: 49-75
    Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: climate change; land surface; precipitation; radiative forcing; water cycle
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Physical and geochemical record of an early Eocene carbon‐cycle perturbation on a turbiditic continental margin (2021)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-01-20
    Description: Multivariate analysis of the elemental composition of hemipelagic sedimentary successions has provided invaluable information about palaeoenvironmental evolution, including records of short-lived Eocene hyperthermal events. However, few studies have analyzed the sedimentary record of these climatic events in turbidite-rich continental margin successions. In order to test the usefulness of multivariate statistical techniques (factor and cluster analysis) in palaeonvironmental and palaeoclimatic research on turbiditic successions, the lowermost Eocene Solondota section, which accumulated on the North Iberian continental margin, was studied. A prominent negative carbon isotope excursion from Solondota was correlated with the Ypresian (early Eocene) hyperthermal event J, also known as C24n.2rH1. High-resolution sedimentological, geochemical (stable isotopes, major and trace elements) and mineralogical (bulk and clay mineralogy) data show that multivariate statistical analysis helps to manage large-sized quantitative datasets objectively, avoiding arbitrary choice of representative elements and identifying environmental factors (virtual variables) that may not be evident otherwise. Variations in major and minor elements from hemipelagic carbonates across the Solondota carbon isotope excursion suggest a temporarily more humid continental climate, which caused increased terrigenous material input into the marine environment. The finer grained fraction boosted hemipelagic carbonate dilution, whereas the coarser grained sediment was transported by temporarily more frequent and voluminous turbidity currents. Thus, the results from the Solondota carbon isotope excursion revealed similarities with deep marine records of other early Eocene minor hyperthermal events. This demonstrates the validity of deep-marine turbiditic successions for providing reliable sedimentological, mineralogical and geochemical records of global palaeoclimatic significance, complementing the information obtained from other sedimentary environments. Furthermore, the generally expanded nature of turbiditic successions can potentially provide palaeoclimatic information at very high resolution, enriching, and perhaps improving, the commonly condensed and sometimes discontinuous record of hemipelagic- only successions.
    Description: Published
    Description: 881-904
    Description: 1A. Geomagnetismo e Paleomagnetismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Retrospective short-term forecasting experiment in Italy based on the occurrence of strong (fore) shocks (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-15
    Description: In a recent work we computed the relative frequencies with which strong shocks (4.0≤Mw〈5.0), widely felt by the population were followed in the same area by potentially destructive main shocks (Mw≥5.0) in Italy. Assuming the stationarity of the seismic release properties, such frequencies can be tentatively used to estimate the probabilities of potentially destructive shocks after the occurrence of future strong shocks. This allows us to set up an alarm-based forecasting hypothesis related to strong foreshocks occurrence. Such hypothesis is tested retrospectively on the data of a homogenized seismic catalogue of the Italian area against a purely random hypothesis that simply forecasts the target main shocks proportionally to the space-time fraction occupied by the alarms. We compute the latter fraction in two ways a) as the ratio between the average time covered by the alarms in each area and the total duration of the forecasting experiment (60 years) and b) as the same ratio but weighted by the past frequency of occurrence of earthquakes in each area. In both cases the overall retrospective performance of our forecasting algorithm is definitely better than the random case. Considering an alarm duration of three months, the algorithm retrospectively forecasts more than 70% of all shocks with Mw5.5 occurred in Italy from 1960 to 2019 with a total space-time fraction covered by the alarms of the order of 2%. Considering the same space-time coverage, the algorithm is also able to retrospectively forecasts more than 40% of the first main shocks with Mw5.5 of the seismic sequences occurred in the same time interval. Given the good reliability of our results, the forecasting algorithm is set and ready to be tested also prospectively, in parallel to other ongoing procedures operating on the Italian territory.
    Description: This paper benefitted from funding provided by the European Union within the ambit of the H2020 project RISE (No. 821115), which in particular fully financed the PhD grant of one of the authors (E.B.).
    Description: Published
    Description: 1192–1206
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquake interaction ; Statistical seismology ; forecasting, ; prediction ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
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    On the Propagation Path of Magma‐Filled Dikes and Hydrofractures: The Competition Between External Stress, Internal Pressure, and Crack Length (2019)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-09
    Description: Mixed‐mode fluid‐filled cracks represent a common means of fluid transport within the Earth's crust. They often show complex propagation paths which may be due to interaction with crustal heterogeneities or heterogeneous crustal stress. Previous experimental and numerical studies focus on the interplay between fluid over-pressure and external stress but neglect the effect of other crack parameters. In this study, we address the role of crack length on the propagation paths in the presence of an external heterogeneous stress field. We make use of numerical simulations of magmatic dike and hydrofracture propagation, carried out using a two‐dimensional boundary element model, and analogue experiments of air‐filled crack propagation into a transparent gelatin block. We use a 3‐D finite element model to compute the stress field acting within the gelatin block and perform a quantitative comparison between 2‐D numerical simulations and experiments. We show that, given the same ratio between external stress and fluid pressure, longer fluid‐filled cracks are less sensitive to the background stress, and we quantify this effect on fluid‐filled crack paths. Combining the magnitude of the external stress, the fluid pressure, and the crack length, we define a new parameter, which characterizes two end member scenarios for the propagation path of a fluid‐filled fracture. Our results have important implications for volcanological studies which aim to address the problem of complex trajectories of magmatic dikes (i.e., to forecast scenarios of new vents opening at volcanoes) but also have implications for studies that address the growth and propagation of natural and induced hydrofractures.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2064–2081
    Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Magmatic dykes ; hydrofractures ; Numerical symulations ; Analogue experiments ; 04.08. Volcanology ; 05.05. Mathematical geophysics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
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    Early-middle Holocene land snail shell stable isotope record from Grotta di Latronico 3 (southern Italy) (2011)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-04-07
    Description: This paper compares stable isotope (δ18O and δ13C) records of early–middle Holocene land snail shells from the archaeological deposits of Grotta di Latronico 3 (LTR3; southern Italy) with modern shell isotopic data. No substantial interspecific variability was observed in shell δ18O (δ18Os) of modern specimens (Pomatias elegans, Cornu aspersum, Eobania vermiculata, Helix ligata and Marmorana fuscolabiata). In contrast, interspecific shell δ13C (δ13Cs) variability was significant, probably due to different feeding behaviour among species. The δ18Os values of living land snails suggest that species hibernate for a long period during colder months, so that the signal of 18O-depleted winter rainfall in their δ18Os is lost. This suggests that δ18Os and δ13Cs values of Pomatias elegans from this archaeological succession provide valuable clues for seasonal (spring–autumn) climatic conditions during the early–middle Holocene. The δ18Os values of fossil specimens are significantly lower than in modern shells and in agreement with other palaeoclimatic records, suggesting a substantial increase of precipitation and/or persistent changes in air mass source trajectories over this region between ca. 8.8 cal ka BP and 6.2–6.7 ka ago. The δ13Cs trend suggests a transition from a slightly 13C-enriched to a 13C-depleted diet between early and middle Holocene compared to present conditions. We postulate that this δ13Cs trend might reflect changes in the C3 vegetation community, potentially combined with other environmental factors such as regional moisture increase and the progressive decrease of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1347-1359
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: central Mediterranean ; archaeological succession ; land snail shells ; stable isotopes ; palaeoclimate ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
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    A minimum time control problem for aerobic degradation processes in biocell composting plants (2021)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-12
    Description: We introduce a mathematical model for the composting process in biocells. The model includes several phenomena, like the aerobic biodegradation of the soluble substrate by means of a bacterial population, the hydrolysis of insoluble substrate, and the biomass decay. We investigate the best strategies to reduce substrate components in minimal time by controlling the effects of cell oxygen concentration on the degradation phenomenon. It is shown that singular controls are not optimal for this model and the optimal control time profiles are of bang or bang-bang type. The occurrence of switching curves is discussed. In the case of a bang-bang control we prove that optimal control profiles have a unique switching time and the corresponding switching curve is determined.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1251-1266
    Description: 7A. Geofisica per il monitoraggio ambientale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
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    Thermal structure of a vanishing subduction system. An example of seismically-derived crustal temperature along the Italian peninsula (2020)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-10-16
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©: The Authors 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.
    Description: The active tectonic processes in convergent margins confer a high degree of complexity to the crust. Determining the thermal structure is, therefore, key to better elucidate the nature of those processes. In order to reconstruct the thermal structure of the crust beneath the Italian peninsula, we combine the most recent and accurate shear-wave velocity model that is currently available with thermodynamic modelling, assuming a global average crustal composition with no lateral variations. Our model, presented in terms of Moho temperature and crustal thermal gradients, shows a very good agreement with the known thermal anomalies associated with the backarc spreading related to the Apennine subduction. Importantly, we envisage a new anomalous region of high Moho temperatures in NW Italy (T 〉 800 degrees C at 30 km), at the transition between the Alps and Apennine orogens. The lowest temperatures of our model, corresponding to geothermal gradients 〈 19 degrees C km(-1), are obtained in the still active but slow-convergent portion of the northern Apennine. Moho temperatures increase moving southwards along the Apennine chain, an observation that is coherent with the evidence of ceasing subduction and consequent rebalancing of the depressed isotherms along the slab. Our results suggest that a thermal structure in different tectonic settings can be inferred with acceptable uncertainties based on absolute seismic velocity models. In this sense, our approach can be extended to any other region.
    Description: Published
    Description: 239–247
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
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    Magma andVolatile Supply to Post-collapse Volcanism and Block Resurgence in Siwi Caldera (Tanna Island,Vanuatu Arc) (2011)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-20
    Description: Siwi caldera, in the Vanuatu arc (Tanna island), is a rare volcanic complex where both persistent eruptive activity (Yasur volcano)and rapid block resurgence (Yenkahe horst) can be investigated simultaneously during a post-caldera stage. Here we provide new constraints on the feeding system of this volcanic complex, based on a detailed study of the petrology, geochemistry and volatile content of Yasur^Siwi bulk-rocks and melt inclusions, combined with measurements of the chemical composition and mass fluxes of Yasur volcanic gases. Major and trace element analyses of Yasur^ Siwi volcanic rocks, together with literature data for other volcanic centers, point to a single magmatic series and possibly long-lived feeding of Tanna volcanism by a homogeneous arc basalt. Olivine-hosted melt inclusions show that the parental basaltic magma, which produces basaltic-trachyandesites to trachyandesites by 50^70% crystal fractionation, is moderately enriched in volatiles ( 1wt % H2O, 0·1wt % S and 0·055 wt % Cl). The basaltic-trachyandesite magma, emplaced at between 4^5 km depth and the surface, preserves a high temperature (1107 158C) and constant H2O content ( 1wt %) until very shallow depths, where it degasses extensively and crystallizes. These conditions, maintained over the past 1400 years of Yasur activity, require early water loss during basalt differentiation, prevalent open-system degassing, and a relatively high heat flow ( 109W). Yasur volcano releases on average 13·4 103 tons d 1 of H2O and 680 tons d 1 of SO2, but moderate amounts of CO2 (840 tons d 1), HCl (165 tons d 1), and HF (23 tons d 1). Combined with melt inclusion data, these gas outputs constrain a bulk magma degassing rate of 5 107 m3 a 1, about a half of which is due to degassing of the basaltic-trachyandesite. We compute that 25 km3 of this magma have degassed without erupting and have accumulated beneath Siwi caldera over the past 1000 years, which is one order of magnitude larger than the accumulated volume uplift of the Yenkahe resurgent block. Hence, basalt supply and gradual storage of unerupted degassed basaltictrachyandesite could easily account for (or contribute to) the Yenkahe block resurgence.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1077-1105
    Description: 2.3. TTC - Laboratori di chimica e fisica delle rocce
    Description: 2.4. TTC - Laboratori di geochimica dei fluidi
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Vanuatu arc ; Yasur ; gas fluxes ; volatiles ; melt inclusions ; resurgent block ; volcano thermal budget ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
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    Aseismic transient driving the swarm-like seismic sequence in the Pollino range, Southern Italy (2020)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-15
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©: The Authors 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved. Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.
    Description: ectonic earthquake swarms challenge our understanding of earthquake processes since it is difficult to link observations to the underlying physical mechanisms and to assess the hazard they pose. Transient forcing is thought to initiate and drive the spatio-temporal release of energy during swarms. The nature of the transient forcing may vary across sequences and range from aseismic creeping or transient slip to diffusion of pore pressure pulses to fluid redistribution and migration within the seismogenic crust. Distinguishing between such forcing mechanisms may be critical to reduce epistemic uncertainties in the assessment of hazard due to seismic swarms, because it can provide information on the frequency–magnitude distribution of the earthquakes (often deviating from the assumed Gutenberg–Richter relation) and on the expected source parameters influencing the ground motion (for example the stress drop). Here we study the ongoing Pollino range (Southern Italy) seismic swarm, a long-lasting seismic sequence with more than five thousand events recorded and located since October 2010. The two largest shocks (magnitude M w = 4.2 and M w = 5.1) are among the largest earthquakes ever recorded in an area which represents a seismic gap in the Italian historical earthquake catalogue. We investigate the geometrical, mechanical and statistical characteristics of the largest earthquakes and of the entire swarm. We calculate the focal mechanisms of the M l 〉 3 events in the sequence and the transfer of Coulomb stress on nearby known faults and analyse the statistics of the earthquake catalogue. We find that only 25 per cent of the earthquakes in the sequence can be explained as aftershocks, and the remaining 75 per cent may be attributed to a transient forcing. The b-values change in time throughout the sequence, with low b-values correlated with the period of highest rate of activity and with the occurrence of the largest shock. In the light of recent studies on the palaeoseismic and historical activity in the Pollino area, we identify two scenarios consistent with the observations and our analysis: This and past seismic swarms may have been ‘passive’ features, with small fault patches failing on largely locked faults, or may have been accompanied by an ‘active’, largely aseismic, release of a large portion of the accumulated tectonic strain. Those scenarios have very different implications for the seismic hazard of the area.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1553–1567
    Description: 4T. Sismicità dell'Italia
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
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    Non-stability of the noise HVSR at sites near or on topographic heights (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-01-18
    Description: The horizontal to vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) of seismic noise is often used to investigate site effects, and it is usually assumed to be a stable feature of the site considered. Here we show that such an assumption is not always justified, and may lead to incorrect conclusions. The HVSR analysis was performed on ambient seismic noise recordings lasting from weeks to months at many sites in Calabria, Italy. Results show a variety of site effects, from the resonance of a shallow sedimentary layer to the polarized amplification of horizontal ground motion associated with topographic effects. We describe the results of seven sites whose HVSR is characterized by dual content: one that is persistent, and another appearing only occasionally. Two sites very near the coast of the Tyrrhenian sea and five sites in the Calabrian Arc mountains show the most remarkable results. The shape of the HVSR changes significantly at these sites when the amplitude of background noise increases in a broad frequency band during periods of bad weather. The occasional contribution to the HVSR consists of one or more peaks, depending on the site, that appear only when the amplitude of ambient noise is higher than usual. The seven sites where we observe the HVSR variability are all located in complex geological environments, on mountains, ridges or foothills. A variation of the HVSR correlated with the day–night cycle is also observed at some of these sites.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2162–2171
    Description: 1T. Struttura della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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