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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
  • Egypt
  • American Geophysical Union  (10)
  • American Association for the Advancement of Science  (2)
  • Institute of Physics (IOP)
  • Molecular Diversity Preservation International (MDPI)
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  • 1
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    A retrospective comparative forecast test on the 1992 Landers sequence (2012)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-16
    Description: We perform a retrospective forecast experiment on the 1992 Landers sequence comparing the predictive power of commonly used model frameworks for short‐term earthquake forecasting. We compare a modified short‐term earthquake probability (STEP) model, six realizations of the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, and four models that combine Coulomb stress changes calculations and rate‐and‐state theory to generate seismicity rates (CRS models). We perform the experiment under the premise of a controlled environment with predefined conditions for the testing region and data for all modelers. We evaluate the forecasts with likelihood tests to analyze spatial consistency and the total amount of forecasted events versus observed data. We find that (1) 9 of the 11 models perform superior compared to a simple reference model, (2) ETAS models forecast the spatial evolution of seismicity best and perform best in the entire test suite, (3) the modified STEP model matches best the total number of events, (4) CRS models can only compete with empirical statistical models by introducing stochasticity in these models considering uncertainties in the finite‐fault source model, and (5) resolving Coulomb stress changes on 3‐D optimally oriented planes is more adequate for forecasting purposes than using the specified receiver fault concept. We conclude that statistical models perform generally better than the tested physics‐based models and parameter value updates using the occurrence of aftershocks generally improve the predictive power in particular for the purely statistical models in space and time.
    Description: Published
    Description: B05305
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: earthquake forecast ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    The Kamil Crater in Egypt (2010)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-12-21
    Description: BREVIA
    Description: We report on the discovery in southern Egypt of an impact crater 45 m in diameter with a pristine rayed structure. Such pristine structures have been previously observed only on atmosphereless rocky or icy planetary bodies in the Solar System. This feature and the association with an iron meteorite impactor and shock metamorphism provides a unique picture of small-scale hypervelocity impacts on the Earth's crust. Contrary to current geophysical models, ground data indicate that iron meteorites with masses of the order of tens of tons can penetrate the atmosphere without significant fragmentation.
    Description: Published
    Description: 804
    Description: 1.8. Osservazioni di geofisica ambientale
    Description: 3.8. Geofisica per l'ambiente
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Impact crater ; Egypt ; geophysical exploration ; ataxite ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.03. Geomorphology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
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    Neotectonics and long-term seismicity in Europe and the Mediterranean region (2015)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-01-04
    Description: We present a neotectonic model of ongoing lithosphere deformation and a corresponding estimate of long-term shallow seismicity across the Africa-Eurasia plate boundary, including the eastern Atlantic, Mediterranean region, and continental Europe. GPS and stress data are absent or inadequate for the part of the study area covered by water. Thus, we opt for a dynamic model based on the stress-equilibrium equation; this approach allows us to estimate the long-term behavior of the lithosphere (given certain assumptions about its structure and physics) for both land and sea areas. We first update the existing plate model by adding five quasi-rigid plates (the Ionian Sea, Adria, Northern Greece, Central Greece, and Marmara) to constrain the deformation pattern of the study area. We use the most recent datasets to estimate the lithospheric structure. The models are evaluated in comparison with updated datasets of geodetic velocities and the most compressive horizontal principal stress azimuths. We find that the side and basal strengths drive the present-day motion of the Adria and Aegean Sea plates, whereas lithostatic pressure plays a key role in driving Anatolia. These findings provide new insights into the neotectonics of the greater Mediterranean region. Finally, the preferred model is used to estimate long-term shallow seismicity, which we retrospectively test against historical seismicity. As an alternative to reliance on incomplete geologic data or historical seismic catalogs, these neotectonic models help to forecast long-term seismicity, although requiring additional tuning before seismicity rates are used for seismic hazard purposes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 5311–5342
    Description: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Tectonics ; Earthquake rates ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.03. Heat flow ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.06. Rheology, friction, and structure of fault zones ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.01. Continents ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    Discrimination between induced, triggered and natural earthquakes close to hydrocarbon reservoirs: A probabilistic approach based on the modeling of depletion-induced stress changes and seismological source parameters. (2015)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-16
    Description: Earthquakes occurring close to hydrocarbon fields under production are often under critical view of being induced or triggered. However, clear and testable rules to discriminate the different events have rarely been developed and tested. The unresolved scientific problem may lead to lengthy public disputes with unpredictable impact on the local acceptance of the exploitation and field operations. We propose a quantitative approach to discriminate induced, triggered and natural earthquakes, which is based on testable input parameters. Maxima of occurrence probabilities are compared for the cases under question, and a single probability of being triggered or induced is reported. The uncertainties of earthquake location and other input parameters are considered in terms of the integration over probability density functions (pdf). The probability that events have been human-triggered/induced is derived from the modeling of Coulomb stress changes and a rate and state dependent seismicity model. In our case a 3D boundary element method has been adapted for the nuclei of strain approach to estimate the stress changes outside the reservoir, which are related to pore pressure changes in the field formation. The predicted rate of natural earthquakes is either derived from the background seismicity or, in case of rare events, from an estimate of the tectonic stress rate. Instrumentally derived, seismological information on the event location, source mechanism and the size of the rupture plane is of advantage for the method. If the rupture plane has been estimated, the discrimination between induced or only triggered events is theoretically possible if probability functions are convolved with a rupture fault filter. We apply the approach to three recent main-shock events: (1) the Mw 4.3 Ekofisk 2001, North Sea earthquake close to the Ekofisk oil field, the 2004 Mw 4.4 Rotenburg, Northern Germany earthquake in the vicinity of the Söhlingen gas field, and the Mw 6.1 Emilia 2012, Northern Italy earthquake in the vicinity of a hydrocarbon reservoir. The three test cases cover the complete range of possible causes: clearly “human-induced”, “not even human-triggered” and a third case in-between both extremes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2491–2509
    Description: 6T. Sismicità indotta e caratterizzazione sismica dei sistemi naturali
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Induced seismicity ; probabilistic discrimination ; hydrocarbon field ; triggered earthquake ; seismic hazard ; earthquake ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
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    Stress interaction effect on the occurrence probability of characteristic earthquakes in Central Apennines (2008)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this study, we compute the effect of stress change due to previous historical earthquakes on the probability of occurrence of future earthquakes on neighboring faults. Following a methodology developed in the last decade, we start from the estimate of the probability of occurrence in the next 50 years for a characteristic earthquake on known seismogenic structures, based on a time-dependent renewal model. Then a physical model for the Coulomb stress change caused by previous earthquakes on these structures is applied. The influence of this stress change on the occurrence rate of characteristic earthquakes is computed, taking into account both permanent (clock advance) and temporary (rate-and-state) perturbations. We apply this method to the computation of earthquake hazard of the main seismogenic structures recognized in the Central and Southern Apennines region, for which both historical and paleoseismological data are available. This study provides the opportunity of reviewing the problems connected with the estimate of the parameters of a renewal model in case of characteristic earthquakes characterized by return times longer than the time spanned by the available catalogues and the applicability of the concept of characteristic earthquake itself. The results show that the estimated effect of earthquake interaction in this region is small compared with the uncertainties affecting the statistical model used for the basic time-dependent hazard assessment.
    Description: Published
    Description: B08313
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Scenari e mappe di pericolosità sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Stress interaction, occurrence probability, characteristic earthquakes ; 01. Atmosphere::01.02. Ionosphere::01.02.03. Forecasts ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.06. Rheology, friction, and structure of fault zones ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
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    Probability map of the next M 〉=5.5 earthquakes in Italy (2005)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The main goal of this work is to provide a probability map for the next moderate to large earthquakes (M 〉= 5.5) in Italy. For this purpose we apply a new nonparametric multivariate model to characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of earthquakes. The method is able to account for tectonics/physics parameters that can potentially influence the spatiotemporal variability and tests their relative importance; moreover, it allows straightforward testing of a variety of hypothesis, such as Seismic Gap, Cluster, and Poisson hypothesis. The method has been applied to Italian seismicity of the last four centuries for earthquakes with M 〉= 5.5. Italy has been divided into 61 irregular zones representing areas with homogeneous tectonic regime resulting from active stress data. Besides the magnitude and the time of the earthquakes, the model includes information on the tectonic stress regime, the homogeneity of its orientation, the number of active faults, the dimension of the area and the homogeneity of the topography. The time distribution of the M 〉= 5.5 earthquakes appears clustered in time for a few years after an event, and then the distribution becomes similar to a memoryless Poisson process, leading to a time-dependent probability map. This map shows that the most likely regions where the next moderate to large earthquakes may occur are Friuli, Umbria- Marche, and part of Southern Apennines and the Calabrian arc.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1-15
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: earthquake probability ; Italy ; seismotectonic regionalization ; statistical modeling ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Format: 2192753 bytes
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 7
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    Tidal Modulation of Nonvolcanic Tremor (2008)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Episodes of nonvolcanic tremor and accompanying slow slip recently have been observed in the subduction zones of Japan and Cascadia. In Cascadia, such episodes typically last a few weeks, and differ from “normal” earthquakes in their source location and momentduration scaling. The three most recent episodes in the Puget Sound/Southern Vancouver Island portion of the Cascadia subduction zone have been exceptionally well recorded. In each episode, we see clear pulsing of tremor activity with periods of 12.4 and 24-25 hours, the same as the principal lunar and lunisolar tides. This indicates that the small stresses associated with the solid-earth and ocean tides influence the genesis of tremor much more effectively than they do “normal” earthquakes. Because the lithostatic stresses are 105 times larger than those associated with the tides, we argue that tremor occurs on very weak faults.
    Description: Published
    Description: 186 -189
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Nonvolcanic ; tremor ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
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    Real-time forecasting following a damaging earthquake (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright (2009) American Geophysical Union.
    Description: We describe the results of a prospective, real-time earthquake forecast experiment made during a seismic emergency. A $M_w$ 6.3 earthquake struck the city of L'Aquila, Italy on April 6, 2009, causing hundreds of deaths and vast damage. Immediately following this event, we began producing daily earthquake forecasts for the region, and we provided these forecasts to Civil Protection -- the agency responsible for managing the emergency. The forecasts are based on a stochastic model that combines the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of earthquake magnitudes and power-law decay in space and time of triggered earthquakes. The results from the first month following the L'Aquila earthquake exhibit a good fit between forecasts and observations, indicating that accurate earthquake forecasting is now a realistic goal. Our experience with this experiment demonstrates an urgent need for a connection between probabilistic forecasts and decision-making in order to establish -- before crises -- quantitative and transparent protocols for decision support.
    Description: Published
    Description: L21302
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: earthquake forecast ; L'Aquila earthquake ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
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    Modeling seismicity rate changes during the 1997 Umbria-Marche sequence (central Italy) through a rate- and state-dependent model (2008)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We model the spatial and temporal pattern of seismicity during a sequence of moderate-magnitude normal faulting earthquakes, which struck in 1997 the Umbria-Marche sector of Northern Apennines (Italy), by applying the Dieterich (1994) rate- and state-dependent constitutive approach. The goal is to investigate the rate of earthquake production caused by repeated coseismic stress changes computed through a 3-D elastic dislocation model in a homogeneous half-space. The reference seismicity rate is assumed time independent, and it is estimated by smoothing the seismicity that occurred in the previous decade without declustering. We propose an analytical relation for deriving the stressing rate directly from the reference seismicity rate. This allows us to perform a tuning of the constitutive parameter As (where A accounts for the direct effect of friction in the rate- and state-dependent model and s is the effective normal stress) into the Dieterich model through a maximum likelihood method, which yields for this seismic sequence a best fitting value equal to 0.04 MPa. Our computations show that, although seven out of eight main shocks are located in areas of increased rate of earthquake production, numerous aftershocks are located in seismicity shadows. Our simulations point out that the adopted value of As strongly affects the pattern of both seismicity shadow and areas of enhanced rate of earthquake production. We conclude that solely accounting for static stress changes caused by the main shocks of this seismic sequence is not sufficient to forecast the complex spatial and temporal evolution of seismicity.
    Description: Published
    Description: B11301
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: rate-and-state ; Umbria-Marche 1997-98 ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
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    Link between major flank slip and 2002–2003 eruption at Mt. Etna (Italy) (2008)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The 2002–2003 Etna eruption is studied through earthquake distributions and surface fracturing. In September 2002, earthquake-induced surface rupture (sinistral offset 0.48 m) occurred along the E-W striking Pernicana Fault (PF), on the NE flank. In late October, a flank eruption accompanied further ( 0.77 m) surface rupturing, reaching a total sinistral offset of 1.25 m; the deformation then propagated for 18 km eastwards to the coastline (sinistral offset 0.03 m) and southwards, along the NW-SE striking Timpe (dextral offset 0.04 m) and, later, Trecastagni faults (dextral offset 0.035 m). Seismicity (〈4 km bsl) on the E flank accompanied surface fracturing: fault plane solutions indicate an overall ESEWNWextension direction, consistent with ESE slip of the E flank also revealed by ground fractures. A three-stage model of flank slip is proposed: inception (September earthquake), climax (accelerated slip and eruption) and propagation (E and S migration of the deformation).
    Description: Published
    Description: 2286
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei sistemi vulcanici
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: volcano seismology ; surface fracturing ; flank slip ; eruption ; Etna ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.02. Geological and geophysical evidences of deep processes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.08. Volcano seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.11. Seismic risk ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.05. Volcanic rocks ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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