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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Natural hazards 19 (1999), S. 233-245 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Keywords: Vrancea subcrustal earthquakes ; Earth tides ; geomagnetic jerk ; Chandler nutation ; couple-impulses ; earthquake prediction
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering , Geography , Geosciences
    Notes: Abstract The possibility that the Earth's tides are a triggering factor of Vrancea subcrustal earthquakes is investigated in the first part of this paper. A possible correlation between Vrancea subcrustal earthquakes and geomagnetic jerks is demonstrated in the second part. The last part of the paper presents a number of results concerning a possible relationship between the regularities of strong Vrancea subcrustal seismicity and the Chandler nutation parameters. An attempt is made to integrate all of these phenomena in a more general framework that takes into account physical processes in the Earth mantle and core. A long-term prediction of the next strong Vrancea earthquake is finally attempted.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2016-08-31
    Description: The temporal epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to describe seismicity. However, only a few programs for estimation of the temporal ETAS model parameters are publicly available, and it is difficult to routinely apply some of them to observed data, due to initial value dependence. A robust temporal ETAS estimation program is required to routinely process earthquake catalogs or to perform Monte Carlo simulations. In this study, we developed a new Fortran program, etas_solve, which is based on the steepest descent method and calculates exact gradient and Hessian using the automatic differentiation technique. We performed numerical tests for a real earthquake catalog and for synthetic catalogs. Through the numerical tests, we found that initial value dependence of etas_solve is several orders of magnitude smaller than that of statistical analysis of point processes (SAPP), which is an R wrapper of statistical analysis of seismicity. We also found that standard error estimated from a Hessian at a maximum-likelihood estimate (MLE) is useful to quantify the uncertainty of the MLE. Computation time of etas_solve was comparable to that of SAPP on a single-core machine and faster on a multicore machine (around eightfold speed up on a 16-core machine). In addition, etas_solve provides rich features that may be useful in real-world applications, such as options to use fixed parameters and an auxiliary window in time and magnitude.
    Print ISSN: 0895-0695
    Electronic ISSN: 1938-2057
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2012-09-19
    Description: Slow slip events (SSEs) are another mode of fault deformation than the fast faulting of regular earthquakes. Such transient episodes have been observed at plate boundaries in a number of subduction zones around the globe. The SSEs near the Boso Peninsula, central Japan, are among the most documented SSEs, with...
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2013-05-03
    Description: The 2011 M w  9.0 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake triggered deep tectonic tremor and shallow microearthquakes in numerous places worldwide. Here, we conduct a systematic survey of triggered tremor in regions where ambient or triggered tremor has been previously identified. Tremor was triggered in the following regions: south-central Alaska, the Aleutian Arc, Shikoku in southwest Japan, the North Island of New Zealand, southern Oregon, the Parkfield–Cholame section of the San Andreas fault in central California, the San Jacinto fault in southern California, Taiwan, and Vancouver Island. We find no evidence of triggered tremor in the Calaveras fault in northern California. One of the most important factors in controlling the triggering potential is the amplitude of the surface waves. Data examined in this study suggest that the threshold amplitude for triggering tremor is ~0.1 cm/s, which is equivalent to a dynamic stress threshold of ~10 kilopascals. The incidence angles of the teleseismic surface waves also affect the triggering potentials of Love and Rayleigh waves. The results of this study confirm that both Love and Rayleigh waves contribute to triggering tremor in many regions. In regions where both ambient and triggered tremor are known to occur, tremor triggered by the Tohoku event generally occurred at similar locations with previously identified ambient and/or triggered tremor, further supporting the notion that although the driving forces of triggered and ambient tremor differ, they share similar mechanisms. We find a positive relationship between the amplitudes of the triggering waves and those of the triggered tremor, which is consistent with the prediction of the clock-advance model. Online Material: Table of measured parameters and other information related to triggering/nontriggering information, and figures of observed seismograms.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2016-12-02
    Description: Real-time aftershock forecasting is important to reduce seismic risks after a damaging earthquake. The main challenge is to prepare forecasts based on the data available in real time, in which many events, including large ones, are missing and large hypocenter determination errors are present due to the automatic detection process of earthquakes before operator inspection and manual compilation. Despite its practical importance, the forecast skill of aftershocks based on such real-time data is still in a developmental stage. Here, we conduct a forecast test of large inland aftershock sequences in Japan using real-time data from the High Sensitivity Seismograph Network (Hi-net) automatic hypocenter catalog (Hi-net catalog), in which earthquakes are detected and determined automatically in real time. Employing the Omori–Utsu and Gutenberg–Richter models, we find that the proposed probability forecast estimated from the Hi-net catalog outperforms the generic model with fixed parameter values for the standard aftershock activity in Japan. Therefore, the real-time aftershock data from the Hi-net catalog can be effectively used to tailor forecast models to a target aftershock sequence. We also find that the probability forecast based on the Hi-net catalog is comparable in performance to the one based on the latest version of the manually compiled hypocenter catalog of the Japan Meteorological Agency when forecasting large aftershocks with M 〉3.95, despite the apparent inferiority of the automatically determined Hi-net catalog. These results demonstrate the practical usefulness of our forecasting procedure and the Hi-net automatic catalog for real-time aftershock forecasting in Japan. Online Material: Figures and tables showing detailed forecast results for all considered aftershock sequences and all forecast time frames.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2017-01-01
    Print ISSN: 0956-540X
    Electronic ISSN: 1365-246X
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2007-08-18
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Electronic ISSN: 2156-2202
    Topics: Geosciences
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2013-05-01
    Description: The 2011 M (sub w) 9.0 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake triggered deep tectonic tremor and shallow microearthquakes in numerous places worldwide. Here, we conduct a systematic survey of triggered tremor in regions where ambient or triggered tremor has been previously identified. Tremor was triggered in the following regions: south-central Alaska, the Aleutian Arc, Shikoku in southwest Japan, the North Island of New Zealand, southern Oregon, the Parkfield-Cholame section of the San Andreas fault in central California, the San Jacinto fault in southern California, Taiwan, and Vancouver Island. We find no evidence of triggered tremor in the Calaveras fault in northern California. One of the most important factors in controlling the triggering potential is the amplitude of the surface waves. Data examined in this study suggest that the threshold amplitude for triggering tremor is approximately 0.1 cm/s, which is equivalent to a dynamic stress threshold of approximately 10 kilopascals. The incidence angles of the teleseismic surface waves also affect the triggering potentials of Love and Rayleigh waves. The results of this study confirm that both Love and Rayleigh waves contribute to triggering tremor in many regions. In regions where both ambient and triggered tremor are known to occur, tremor triggered by the Tohoku event generally occurred at similar locations with previously identified ambient and/or triggered tremor, further supporting the notion that although the driving forces of triggered and ambient tremor differ, they share similar mechanisms. We find a positive relationship between the amplitudes of the triggering waves and those of the triggered tremor, which is consistent with the prediction of the clock-advance model.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2009-11-23
    Description: We investigate the relations between properties of seismicity patterns in southern California and the surface heat flow using a relocated earthquake catalog. We first search for earthquake sequences that are well separated in time and space from other seismicity and then determine the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model parameters for the sequences with a sufficient number of events. We focus on the productivity parameter alpha of the ETAS model that quantifies the relative efficiency of an earthquake with magnitude M to produce aftershocks. By stacking sequences with relatively small and relatively large alpha values separately, we observed clear differences between the two groups. Sequences with a smaller alpha have a relatively large number of foreshocks and relatively small number of aftershocks. In contrast, more typical sequences with larger alpha have relatively few foreshocks and larger number of aftershocks. The stacked premainshock activity for the more typical latter sequences has a clear increase in the day before the occurrence of the main event. The spatial distribution of the alpha values correlates well with the surface heat flow: areas of high heat flow are characterized by relatively small alpha , indicating that in such regions the swarm-type earthquake activity is more common. Our results are compatible with a damage rheology model that predicts swarm-type seismic activity in areas with relatively high heat flow and more typical foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequences in regions with normal or low surface heat flow. The high variability of alpha in regions with either high or low heat flow values indicates that at local scales additional factors (e.g., fluid content and rock type) may influence the seismicity generation process.
    Print ISSN: 0037-1106
    Electronic ISSN: 1943-3573
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2012-03-01
    Print ISSN: 0895-0695
    Electronic ISSN: 1938-2057
    Topics: Geosciences
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