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  • 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology  (24)
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
  • 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.06. Subduction related processes
  • American Geophysical Union  (37)
  • Agu  (6)
  • Nature Publishing Group  (3)
  • OGS
  • Public Library of Science (PLoS)
Collection
Keywords
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  • 1
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    A retrospective comparative forecast test on the 1992 Landers sequence (2012)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-16
    Description: We perform a retrospective forecast experiment on the 1992 Landers sequence comparing the predictive power of commonly used model frameworks for short‐term earthquake forecasting. We compare a modified short‐term earthquake probability (STEP) model, six realizations of the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, and four models that combine Coulomb stress changes calculations and rate‐and‐state theory to generate seismicity rates (CRS models). We perform the experiment under the premise of a controlled environment with predefined conditions for the testing region and data for all modelers. We evaluate the forecasts with likelihood tests to analyze spatial consistency and the total amount of forecasted events versus observed data. We find that (1) 9 of the 11 models perform superior compared to a simple reference model, (2) ETAS models forecast the spatial evolution of seismicity best and perform best in the entire test suite, (3) the modified STEP model matches best the total number of events, (4) CRS models can only compete with empirical statistical models by introducing stochasticity in these models considering uncertainties in the finite‐fault source model, and (5) resolving Coulomb stress changes on 3‐D optimally oriented planes is more adequate for forecasting purposes than using the specified receiver fault concept. We conclude that statistical models perform generally better than the tested physics‐based models and parameter value updates using the occurrence of aftershocks generally improve the predictive power in particular for the purely statistical models in space and time.
    Description: Published
    Description: B05305
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: earthquake forecast ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Neotectonics and long-term seismicity in Europe and the Mediterranean region (2015)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-01-04
    Description: We present a neotectonic model of ongoing lithosphere deformation and a corresponding estimate of long-term shallow seismicity across the Africa-Eurasia plate boundary, including the eastern Atlantic, Mediterranean region, and continental Europe. GPS and stress data are absent or inadequate for the part of the study area covered by water. Thus, we opt for a dynamic model based on the stress-equilibrium equation; this approach allows us to estimate the long-term behavior of the lithosphere (given certain assumptions about its structure and physics) for both land and sea areas. We first update the existing plate model by adding five quasi-rigid plates (the Ionian Sea, Adria, Northern Greece, Central Greece, and Marmara) to constrain the deformation pattern of the study area. We use the most recent datasets to estimate the lithospheric structure. The models are evaluated in comparison with updated datasets of geodetic velocities and the most compressive horizontal principal stress azimuths. We find that the side and basal strengths drive the present-day motion of the Adria and Aegean Sea plates, whereas lithostatic pressure plays a key role in driving Anatolia. These findings provide new insights into the neotectonics of the greater Mediterranean region. Finally, the preferred model is used to estimate long-term shallow seismicity, which we retrospectively test against historical seismicity. As an alternative to reliance on incomplete geologic data or historical seismic catalogs, these neotectonic models help to forecast long-term seismicity, although requiring additional tuning before seismicity rates are used for seismic hazard purposes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 5311–5342
    Description: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra
    Description: 2T. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 3T. Pericolosità sismica e contributo alla definizione del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: Tectonics ; Earthquake rates ; 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.03. Heat flow ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.06. Rheology, friction, and structure of fault zones ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.01. Continents ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
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    Sudden deep gas eruption nearby Rome's airport of Fiumicino (2014)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-03-24
    Description: On 24 August 2013 a sudden gas eruption from the ground occurred in the Tiber river delta, nearby Rome's international airport of Fiumicino. We assessed that this gas, analogous to other minor vents in the area, is dominantly composed of deep, partially mantle-derived CO2, as in the geothermal gas of the surrounding Roman Comagmatic Province. Increased amounts of thermogenic CH4 are likely sourced from Meso-Cenozoic petroleum systems, overlying the deep magmatic fluids. We hypothesize that the intersection of NE-SW and N-S fault systems, which at regional scale controls the location of the Roman volcanic edifices, favors gas uprising through the impermeable Pliocene and deltaic Holocene covers. Pressurized gas may temporarily be stored below these covers or within shallower sandy, permeable layers. The eruption, regardless the triggering cause—natural or man-made, reveals the potential hazard of gas-charged sediments in the delta, even at distances far from the volcanic edifices.
    Description: Published
    Description: 5632–5636
    Description: 2.2. Laboratorio di paleomagnetismo
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: geothermal gas ; deep CO2 ; Tiber river delta ; thermogenic CH4 ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
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    Relation between subduction megathrust earthquakes, trench sediment thickness and upper plate strain (2012)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-16
    Description: Giant earthquake (moment magnitude Mw 〉=8.5) forecasts for subduction zones have been empirically related to both tectonic stresses and geometrical irregularities along the subduction interface. Both of these controls have been suggested as able to tune the ability of rupture to propagate laterally and, in turn, exert an important control on giant earthquake generation. Here we test these hypotheses, and their combined influence, by compiling a dataset of trench fill thickness (a proxy for smoothing of subducting plate relief by sediment input into the subduction channel) and upper plate strain (a proxy for the tectonic stresses applied to the subduction interface) for 44 segments of the global subduction network. We statistically compare relationships between upper plate strain, trench sediment thickness and maximal earthquake magnitude. We find that the combination of both large trench fill (≥1 km) and neutral upper plate strain explains spatial patterns of giant earthquake occurrence to a statistically significant degree. In fact, the concert of these two factors is more highly correlated with giant earthquake occurrence than either factor on its own. Less frequent giant earthquakes of lower magnitude are also possible at subduction zones with thinner trench fill and compressive upper plate strain. Extensional upper plate strain and trench fill 〈 0.5 km appear to be unfavorable conditions, as giant earthquakes have not been observed in these geodynamical environments during the last 111 years.
    Description: Published
    Description: L05304
    Description: 3.3. Geodinamica e struttura dell'interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: subduction zones ; trench sediment thickness ; Upper plate strain ; megathrust earthquakes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.06. Subduction related processes
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
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    Discrimination between induced, triggered and natural earthquakes close to hydrocarbon reservoirs: A probabilistic approach based on the modeling of depletion-induced stress changes and seismological source parameters. (2015)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-16
    Description: Earthquakes occurring close to hydrocarbon fields under production are often under critical view of being induced or triggered. However, clear and testable rules to discriminate the different events have rarely been developed and tested. The unresolved scientific problem may lead to lengthy public disputes with unpredictable impact on the local acceptance of the exploitation and field operations. We propose a quantitative approach to discriminate induced, triggered and natural earthquakes, which is based on testable input parameters. Maxima of occurrence probabilities are compared for the cases under question, and a single probability of being triggered or induced is reported. The uncertainties of earthquake location and other input parameters are considered in terms of the integration over probability density functions (pdf). The probability that events have been human-triggered/induced is derived from the modeling of Coulomb stress changes and a rate and state dependent seismicity model. In our case a 3D boundary element method has been adapted for the nuclei of strain approach to estimate the stress changes outside the reservoir, which are related to pore pressure changes in the field formation. The predicted rate of natural earthquakes is either derived from the background seismicity or, in case of rare events, from an estimate of the tectonic stress rate. Instrumentally derived, seismological information on the event location, source mechanism and the size of the rupture plane is of advantage for the method. If the rupture plane has been estimated, the discrimination between induced or only triggered events is theoretically possible if probability functions are convolved with a rupture fault filter. We apply the approach to three recent main-shock events: (1) the Mw 4.3 Ekofisk 2001, North Sea earthquake close to the Ekofisk oil field, the 2004 Mw 4.4 Rotenburg, Northern Germany earthquake in the vicinity of the Söhlingen gas field, and the Mw 6.1 Emilia 2012, Northern Italy earthquake in the vicinity of a hydrocarbon reservoir. The three test cases cover the complete range of possible causes: clearly “human-induced”, “not even human-triggered” and a third case in-between both extremes.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2491–2509
    Description: 6T. Sismicità indotta e caratterizzazione sismica dei sistemi naturali
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Induced seismicity ; probabilistic discrimination ; hydrocarbon field ; triggered earthquake ; seismic hazard ; earthquake ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
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    Seismotectonics of the Southern Apennines and Adriatic foreland: insights on active regional E-W shear zones from analogue modeling (2006)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The active tectonics at the front of the Southern Apennines and in the Adriatic foreland is characterized by E-W striking, right-lateral seismogenic faults, interpreted as reactivated inherited discontinuities. The best studied among these is the Molise-Gondola shear zone (MGsz). The interaction of these shear zones with the Apennines chain is not yet clear. To address this open question we developed a set of scaled analogue experiments, aimed at analyzing: 1) how dextral strike-slip motion along a pre-existing zone of weakness within the foreland propagates toward the surface and affects the orogenic wedge; 2) the propagation of deformation as a function of displacement; 3) any insights on the active tectonics of Southern Italy. Our results stress the primary role played by these inherited structures when reactivated, and confirm that regional E-W dextral shear zones are a plausible way of explaining the seismotectonic setting of the external areas of the Southern Apennines.
    Description: INGV, Università degli Studi di Pavia
    Description: Published
    Description: 21
    Description: open
    Keywords: Active strike-slip fault ; sandbox model ; southern Italy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.02. Geological and geophysical evidences of deep processes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.01. Crustal deformations ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.01. Earthquake faults: properties and evolution ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 7
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    Stress interaction effect on the occurrence probability of characteristic earthquakes in Central Apennines (2008)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this study, we compute the effect of stress change due to previous historical earthquakes on the probability of occurrence of future earthquakes on neighboring faults. Following a methodology developed in the last decade, we start from the estimate of the probability of occurrence in the next 50 years for a characteristic earthquake on known seismogenic structures, based on a time-dependent renewal model. Then a physical model for the Coulomb stress change caused by previous earthquakes on these structures is applied. The influence of this stress change on the occurrence rate of characteristic earthquakes is computed, taking into account both permanent (clock advance) and temporary (rate-and-state) perturbations. We apply this method to the computation of earthquake hazard of the main seismogenic structures recognized in the Central and Southern Apennines region, for which both historical and paleoseismological data are available. This study provides the opportunity of reviewing the problems connected with the estimate of the parameters of a renewal model in case of characteristic earthquakes characterized by return times longer than the time spanned by the available catalogues and the applicability of the concept of characteristic earthquake itself. The results show that the estimated effect of earthquake interaction in this region is small compared with the uncertainties affecting the statistical model used for the basic time-dependent hazard assessment.
    Description: Published
    Description: B08313
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: 3.2. Tettonica attiva
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Scenari e mappe di pericolosità sismica
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Stress interaction, occurrence probability, characteristic earthquakes ; 01. Atmosphere::01.02. Ionosphere::01.02.03. Forecasts ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.01. Earthquake geology and paleoseismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.06. Rheology, friction, and structure of fault zones ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
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    Probability map of the next M 〉=5.5 earthquakes in Italy (2005)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The main goal of this work is to provide a probability map for the next moderate to large earthquakes (M 〉= 5.5) in Italy. For this purpose we apply a new nonparametric multivariate model to characterize the spatiotemporal distribution of earthquakes. The method is able to account for tectonics/physics parameters that can potentially influence the spatiotemporal variability and tests their relative importance; moreover, it allows straightforward testing of a variety of hypothesis, such as Seismic Gap, Cluster, and Poisson hypothesis. The method has been applied to Italian seismicity of the last four centuries for earthquakes with M 〉= 5.5. Italy has been divided into 61 irregular zones representing areas with homogeneous tectonic regime resulting from active stress data. Besides the magnitude and the time of the earthquakes, the model includes information on the tectonic stress regime, the homogeneity of its orientation, the number of active faults, the dimension of the area and the homogeneity of the topography. The time distribution of the M 〉= 5.5 earthquakes appears clustered in time for a few years after an event, and then the distribution becomes similar to a memoryless Poisson process, leading to a time-dependent probability map. This map shows that the most likely regions where the next moderate to large earthquakes may occur are Friuli, Umbria- Marche, and part of Southern Apennines and the Calabrian arc.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1-15
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: earthquake probability ; Italy ; seismotectonic regionalization ; statistical modeling ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.02. Earthquake interactions and probability
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 9
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    Constraints on mantle circulation around the deforming Calabrian slab (2006)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Combining tectonics, with seismological and geochemical data, we reconstruct the deformation history of the presently narrow Calabrian slab and the path of mantle circulation during the last 10 Ma. We show that during the slab deformation the mantle laterally flowed inside the back arc region permitting its retrograde motion and giving a seismological and volcanological record after 1–2 myr.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1-4
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: mantle circulation ; Calabrian slab ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.02. Geological and geophysical evidences of deep processes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.03. Mantle and Core dynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.04. Plate boundaries, motion, and tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.06. Subduction related processes
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Format: 458 bytes
    Format: 255992 bytes
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  • 10
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    Deformation and eruptions at Mt. Etna (Italy): A lesson from 15 years of observations (2009)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Volcanoes deform as a consequence of the rise and storage of magma; once magma reaches a critical pressure, an eruption occurs. However, how the edifice deformation relates to its eruptive behavior is poorly known. Here, we produce a joint interpretation of spaceborne InSAR deformation measurements and volcanic activity at Mt. Etna (Italy), between 1992 and 2006. We distinguish two volcano-tectonic behaviors. Between 1993 and 2000, Etna inflated with a starting deformation rate of 1 cm yr 1 that progressively reduced with time, nearly vanishing between 1998 and 2000; moreover, low-eruptive rate summit eruptions occurred, punctuated by lava fountains. Between 2001 and 2005, Etna deflated, feeding higher-eruptive rate flank eruptions, along with large displacements of the entire East-flank. These two behaviors, we suggest, result from the higher rate of magma stored between 1993 and June 2001, which triggered the emplacement of the dike responsible for the 2001 and 2002–2003 eruptions. Our results clearly show that the joint interpretation of volcano deformation and stored magma rates may be crucial in identifying impending volcanic eruptions.
    Description: This work was partly funded by INGV and the Italian DPC and was supported by ASI, the Preview Project and CRdC-AMRA. DPC-INGV Flank project providing the funds for the publication fees.
    Description: Published
    Description: L02309
    Description: 1.2. TTC - Sorveglianza geochimica delle aree vulcaniche attive
    Description: 1.5. TTC - Sorveglianza dell'attività eruttiva dei vulcani
    Description: 1.10. TTC - Telerilevamento
    Description: 3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
    Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
    Description: 4.5. Degassamento naturale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: deformation ; eruptions ; Mt. Etna ; eruptive cycle ; InSAR ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.01. Earth Interior::04.01.02. Geological and geophysical evidences of deep processes ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.06. Measurements and monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.03. Geodesy::04.03.07. Satellite geodesy ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.09. Structural geology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.04. Geology::04.04.12. Fluid Geochemistry ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.02. Geodynamics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.07. Tectonics ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.01. Gases ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.03. Magmas ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.06. Volcano monitoring ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.07. Instruments and techniques ; 04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk ; 05. General::05.02. Data dissemination::05.02.03. Volcanic eruptions
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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