ALBERT

Description: Since January, work has been proceeding on the first phase of this project: the creation of an extensive real-time lightning data base accessible via the Space Science and Engineering Center McIdas system. The purpose of this endeavor is two-fold: to enhance the availability and ease of access to lightning data among the various networks, governmental and research agencies; and to test the feasiblity and desirability of such efforts in succeeding years. The final steps in the creation of the necessary communications links, hardware, and software are in the process of being completed. Operations ground rules for access among the various users have been discussed and are being refined. While the research planned for the last year of the project will rely for the most part on archived, quality-controlled data from the various networks, the real-time data will provide a valuable first-look at potentially interesting case studies. For this purpose, tools are being developed on McIdas for display and analysis of the data as they become available. In conjunction with concurrent GOES real-time imagery, strike locations can be plotted, gridded and contoured, or displayed in various statistical formats including frequency distributions, histograms, and scatter plots. The user may also perform these functions in relation to arbitrarily defined areas on the satellite image. By mid-May these preparations for the access and analysis of real-time lightning data are expected to be complete.

Description: Atmospheric electrical emissions occurring in association with Hurricane Alicia were observed by two crossed baseline phase linear interferometers. The sensors were located in San Antonio, Texas, and at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), Huntsville, Alabama. An analysis of the data has indicated that the direction finding (DF) performance of the San Antonio site was extremely good while the DF performance at the MSFC site evidenced erratic behavior. A check of the data acquisition hardware revealed an intermitted problem in one of the radio receiver channels. Since the system has experienced several lightning strikes during the early spring of 1984, it was necessary to ship the entire rack of equipment back to SwRI for refurbishment. Analysis of the DF data from the interferometer site at San Antonio is being done. A limited subset of the MSFC data acquired during Hurricane Alicia has been found to be valid. These were data which satisfied the phase linearity criteria. Approximately 2,000 location estimates have been produced on the valid data. The results of the DF analysis and the location data are being correlated with the McIDAS data base at Marshall Space Flight Center, and with the radar summary data provided by the Hurricane Research Division using the National weather Service radar Facility at Galveston, Texas.

Description: During FY-85, Researchers conducted a field program and analyzed data. The field program incorporated coordinated measurements made with a NASA U2. Results include the following: (1) ground truth measurements of lightning for comparison with those obtained by the U2; (2) analysis of dual-Doppler radar and dual-VHF lightning mapping data from a supercell storm; (3) analysis of synoptic conditions during three simultaneous storm systems on 13 May 1983 when unusually large numbers of positive cloud-to-ground (+CG) flashes occurred; (4) analysis of extremely low frequency (ELF) wave forms; and (5) an assessment of a cloud -ground strike location system using a combination of mobile laboratory and fixed-base TV video data.

Description: A study was undertaken to examine the evolution of radar echoes and lightning attending the convective storms in mesoscale convective systems (MCS) and the relationships between the spatial and temporal evolution of deep convection and the storm environment, precipitation, severe weather, and lightning. The total number of ground discharges ranges from 10,000 to 30,000 over the life cycle of the MCS with peak sustained rates (for up to 10 consecutive hours) in excess of 2000 per hour. The peak lightning activity occurs from 5 to 20 hours after the first storms and anywhere from 7 hours prior to 7 hours after the time of the maximum areal extent of the MCS for very similar synoptic environments. Thus, it appears that mesoscale and sub-synoptic scale mechanisms are responsible for these large temporal variation in lightning activity. In addition, we have found that the lightning rates in MCS's are not related to either the size or the duration of the MCS. Preliminary results suggest that the MCA's with embedded squall lines produce the greatest flash rates.

Description: Significant progress was made in developing a six-component dry model of mid-latitude baroclinic wave evolution, and a ten-component moist model. These models include representations of airflow over mountians and non-adiabatic processes. As a first step, the properties of a reduced, three component, baroclinic system are studied. The classical baroclinic stability criteria emerge as the properties of one of the three equilibria admitted, with the remaining two equilibria forming the attractor region for the observed weather activity. Passive tracer evolution in a baroclinic wave was studied. A model in which only constituents trapped within low atmospheric levels are considered, has been extended to include the possibility for fluxes into the upper levels of the atmosphere. The reported results for the lower levels achieved previously are shown to be qualitatively similar to those obtained by these new calculations in which the vertical flux constraint is removed. An extensive study of an 8-year record of global outgoing longwave radiation for the Northern Hemisphere reveals that blocking events exhibit only a weak signature of blocking highs, as measured by relatively low values of the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean value of the observed long wave outgoing radiation. Though present in many cases, the signature is not a strongly distinctive feature of the blocking episodes.

Description: The objective is to develop analysis tools for use of satellite data to interpret synoptic-scale systems in data-void regions. Interim goals are to: (1) quantify the synoptic information content of satellite data; and (2) utilize these data in the diagnosis of moisture bursts in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Researchers developed and implemented a statistical procedure for using TIROS N microwave data to infer infrared channel data for overcast conditions; they used the same procedure for deducing full TIROS N channel radiance profiles from NOAA 5 VTPR channel data over regions where the TIROS N data are missing. An empirical orthogonal function analysis of twice-daily channel radiance fields over the tropical eastern Pacific was completed. The vertically oriented eigenfunctions were interpreted in terms of typical meteorological events. The horizontal distribution of the eigenfunction amplitudes relates these meteorological signals to moisture bursts. A pair of moisture burst climatologies is complete: one of four years using infrared imagery (including the highly anomalous 1982 to 83 cold season); the other implementing 850 to 200 mb wind analyses in conjunction with GOES imagery. A number of different evaluations of the synoptic evolution of moisture fields (enhanced infrared imagery, moisture channel data, FGGE humidity analysis, and in situ station and sounding observations) are compared. All have limitations; all can be utilized together; all together are still less than adequate in the tropical Pacific.

Description: The major research objectives are to diagnose the physical processes responsible for the maintenance of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) and to examine the role of the SPCZ in the large-scale circulation patterns of the Southern Hemisphere. To accomplish these objectives researchers used several data sources which include: a modified set of Level III-b upper air analyses, originally produced by ECMWF (Vincent, 1982); subjectively analyzed surface analyses for the South Pacific based on island station reports (Vincent, 1985); outgoing longwave radiation values supplied to us by NOAA/NESDIS; and equivalent black body temperatures and precipitation rates derived by Robertson. In the past year researchers found that wave number four plays an inportant role in the Southern Hemisphere tropics during the 15-day period when the sPCZ was a dominant feature, particularly with regard to the baroclinic conversion of potential to kinetic energy (Huang and Vincent, 1985). The convectively-active SPCZ area was found to make a significant contribution to this conversion process; thus, it appears that baroclinic effects and latent heating are important in maintaining the SPCZ. Recently efforts concentrated on two research tasks, an examination of cyclone activity within the SPCZ (Kann, 1985; Vincent, 1985; Vincent and Kann, 1985) and a study of the heat and moisture budgets in the South Pacific (Miller, et al., 1985). It was found that cyclonic disturbances occurred with regularity in the Zone from 10 to 17 January.

Description: An important component of the research was a continuing investigation of the impact of latent release on extratropical cyclone development. Previous efforts to accomplish this task have focused on the energy balance and the vertical motion field of an intense winter extratropical cyclone over the United States. During this fiscal year researchers turned their attention to a more fundamental diagnostic variable, the height tendency. Central to this effort is the use of a modified form of the quasi-geostrophic height tendency equation, in which geostrophic wind components have been replaced by observed winds and a latent heat release term has been added. This methodology was adopted to produce a simple diagnostic model which retains the essential mechanisms of quasi-geostrophic theory but more faithfully describes observed wave development when the Rossby Number approaches and exceeds 0.5. Results to date indicate that the new model yields height tendencies that are superior to those obtained from the quasi-geostrophic formulation and are sufficiently close to the observed tendencies to be a useful tool for diagnosing the principle large-scale forcing mechanisms in th e700-300 mb layer. Of the three forcing terms included in the new model, vortity advection is in general dominant. The most persistent challenge to this dominance is made by the thermal advection. On the whole, latent heat release plays a secondary role. Finally, during the rapid intensification observed for this cyclone, all three processes complement each other in forcing height falls.

Description: The objectives were to: (1) develop an objective analysis technique that will maximize the information content of data available from diverse sources, with particular emphasis on the incorporation of observations from satellites with those from more traditional immersion techniques; and (2) to develop a diagnosis of the state of the synoptic scale atmosphere on a much finer scale over a much broader region than is presently possible to permit studies of the interactions and energy transfers between global, synoptic and regional scale atmospheric processes. The variational objective analysis model consists of the two horizontal momentum equations, the hydrostatic equation, and the integrated continuity equation for a dry hydrostatic atmosphere. Preliminary tests of the model with the SESMAE I data set are underway for 12 GMT 10 April 1979. At this stage of purpose of the analysis is not the diagnosis of atmospheric structures but rather the validation of the model. Model runs for rawinsonde data and with the precision modulus weights set to force most of the adjustment of the wind field to the mass field have produced 90 to 95 percent reductions in the imbalance of the initial data after only 4-cycles through the Euler-Lagrange equations. Sensitivity tests for linear stability of the 11 Euler-Lagrange equations that make up the VASP Model 1 indicate that there will be a lower limit to the scales of motion that can be resolved by this method. Linear stability criteria are violated where there is large horizontal wind shear near the upper tropospheric jet.

Description: The compilation of Scientific Data Requirements (SDRs) were based on discussions with a representative cross section of the scientific community and a selected survey of the extensive literature dealing with the measurement of CO2-induced climatic changes. This approach resulted in a baseline set of SDRs to determine what could be accomplished with space-based sensors. Twenty-three SDRs emerged as the basis for the investigation of space systems.

Description: Four topics concerning frontal circulations are discussed. The results of retrieving pressure and buoyancy perturbations from Doppler radar taken in an intense cold front, recent results on instabilities that occur along well detined frontal boundaries, the initiation of convection by frontal circulations, and the present crisis in the understanding of occluded frontal systems are discussed.

Description: The physical relationship between steady axisymmetric flows that might be observed in the atmosphere and in laboratory vessels is investigated theoretically. This is accomplished by comparing both the nonlinear structure and the thermal forcing mechanisms in two truncated spectral models of flow in the atmosphere and the rotating laboratory cylinder, respectively. Under statically stable conditions, the response of the internally forced spherical model (which is developed here from a set of new orthonormal basis functions) exhibits steady behavior different from that in the externally forced cylindrical model. Two regions of multiple steady solutions occur in the cylindrical model, under stable conditions, that are not found in the spherical one. The possible physical relevance of these multiple solutions is investigated by determining their location in parameter space with respect to the classical Hadley-Rossby transition curve. The results suggest that the wave flow regime, in an annulus, might develop catastrophically when an upper symmetric flow ceases to exist.

Description: Expected orientation angles and horizontal wavelengths of boundary layer rolls or cloud streets are determined from an analysis of a truncated spectral model of three dimensional shallow moist Boussinesq convection in a shearing environment. The nonlinear secondary circulations are organized into two dimensional forms by the height dependent wind field, and these rolls may develop from the combined effects of thermal stratification and mean wind shear. The associated thermal and parallel instability mechanisms are shown to be special cases of a single one. Only one mode is found when the stratification is unstable or neutral, but a second one is possible when the stratification is weakly stable. The first corresponds to relatively broadly spaced rolls having orientations for which the Fourier component of the roll perpendicular shear is nearly zero, but the second corresponds to relatively narrowly spaced rolls having orientations for which the Fourier coefficients of both the perpendicular and the parallel components of the shear are nearly equal.

Description: The properties of the steady Hadley and Rossby regimes for a thermally forced rotating fluid on a sphere are studied. The two layer modified geostrophic model is employed which allows for thermal advection by the divergent wind and time dependent static stability. Heating processes are parameterized using the Newtonian approximation and Rayleigh friction is accounted for. The equations are transformed to spectral form using spherical harmonics and then truncated retaining a simple axisymmetric state and initial, one wave. A time independent Hadley circulation is obtained which is neutral to axisymmetric disturbances but unstable to wave like perturbations for intermediate values of the meridional temperature gradient, indicating the existence of both an upper and lower symmetric Hadley regime. An analytical solution for the steady Rossby circulation is determined for values of the meridional temperature gradient where the Hadley regime is unstable. Linear perturbation theory is used to show that within the steady Rossby regime two or more waves cannot exist simultaneously.

Description: As a user of devices and procedures for lightning protection, the author is asking the lightning research community for cookbook recipes to help him solve his problems. He is lamenting that realistic devices are scarce and that his mission does not allow him the time nor the wherewithal to bridge the gap between research and applications. A few case histories are presented. In return for their help he is offering researchers a key to lightning technology--the use of the Eastern Test Range and its extensive resources as a proving ground for their experiment in the lightning capital of the United States. A current example is given--a joint lightning characterization project to take place there. Typical resources are listed.

Description: Geographic coverage frequency and geographic shot density for a satellite borne Doppler lidar wind velocity measuring system are measured. The equations of motion of the light path on the ground were derived and a computer program devised to compute shot density and coverage frequency by latitude-longitude sections. The equations for the coverage boundaries were derived and a computer program developed to plot these boundaries, thus making it possible, after an application of a map coloring algorithm, to actually see the areas of multiple coverage. A theoretical cross-swath shot density function that gives close approximations in certain cases was also derived. This information should aid in the design of an efficient data-processing system for the Doppler lidar.

Description: A block diagram of the joint airport weather studies program is presented. Background leading to the development of the program is reviewed. Basic studies, aircraft performance, and detection and warning techniques used to develop fine scale structure of thunderstorm dynamics and kinematics in the vicinity of a major airport; effect of thunderstorm low level wind shear on aircraft performance; and development of real time testing of flow level wind shear detection and warning techniques and displays are described.

Description: The prototype regional observation and forecast system (PROFS) outputs are demonstrated, functional design specifications to be used to procure and implement operational systems are outlined. Advanced candidate technologies are evaluated as an integral part of the process that leads to these outputs. Evaluation insures that future weather service systems will contain the optimum mix of technologies to be most cost effective in reducing the annual losses and deaths that are directly attributed to severe weather.

Description: The icing environment at altitudes below 10,000 feet were studied. The following questions are asked, are: (1) existing aircraft certification criteria applicable; (2) too stringent on icing for helos; (3) based on accurate data; (4) appropriate for low (10,000 ft) altitudes? The research plan is outlined: review historical icing data, obtain new measurements, collect modern icing data from other groups, and recommend LWC, OAT, and MVD criteria for helicopters. Estimated accuracies and known sources of error are included. It is concluded that the net effect of possible sources of error of both signs is uncertain.

Description: Some operational and experimental products developed for aviation weather forecasting are briefly described. Experimental products include surface dew point, obstructions to vision, boundary layer model, computer-worded terminal forecasts, terminal alerting procedure, generalized equivalent Markov, and radar forecasts (0-2 hours).

Description: Doppler radar measurements of an intense wind shear occurance are discussed. The data suggest the presence of an incredibly strong low level jet outflow component of the microburst event, reaching 60 knots only 50 meters above the surface. Evidence also suggests that microbursts more typically occur in very weak thunderstorms that have hardly reached thunderstorm stage.

Description: The phenomenology of one class of strong thunderstorm downdrafts, microbursts, is described. Several aircraft accidents are analyzed in which a microburst was involved and a concept for an early warning wind shear sensor is presented.

Description: A method to improve clear air turbulence (CAT) forecasting by more effectively using the currently operational rawinsonde (RW) system is discussed. The method is called the Diagnostic Richardson Number Tendency (DRT) technique. The technique does not attempt to use the RW as a direct detector of the turbulent motion or even of the CAT mechanism structure but rather senses the synoptic scale centers of action which provide the energy to the CAT mechanism at the mesoscale level. The DRT algorithm is deterministic rather than statistical in nature, using the hydrodynamic equations (equations of motion) relevant to the synoptic scale. However, interpretation, by necessity, is probabilistic. What is most important with respect to its operational implementation is that this method uses the same input data as currently used by the operational National Meteorological Center prognostic models.

Description: A clear air turbulence (CAT) flight test to evaluate and test four different sensors in the detection and measuring of CAT and other meteorological targets that relate to turbulence is discussed. The primary types of CAT investigated were mountain wave CAT, jetstream CAT, CAT in cirrus clouds, and CAT in frontal wind shears, troughs, and ridges. The sensors included the CO2 pulsed Doppler lidar and three radiometers. One of the radiometers, at a frequency of 55.5 GHz, looked at atmospheric temperature structure. Another, at a frequency of 180.1 GHz, looked at atmospheric water vapor and investigated the feasibility of measuring at the microwave frequency the turbulence features seen in the infrared (IR) frequencies. An IR radiometer at 27 to 33 microns was the fourth sensor. This last device and the temperature structure radiometer worked well at all flight levels.

Description: The development of methods for the short range forecasting of visibility and ceiling conditions is discussed. Short range forecasts of one hour or less (5 or 30 minutes), immediately after a series of local observations can be expected to be more accurate and reliable than any forecast of more than one hour. These forecasts can be accomplished by the operational implementation of fully automated aviation observation systems and the utilization of statistical techniques such as the Generalized Equivalent Markov model.

Description: Requirements for an improved aviation weather system are defined and specifically include the need for (1) weather observations at all airports with instrument approaches, (2) more accurate and timely radar detection of weather elements hazardous to aviation, and (3) better methods of timely distribution of both pilot reports and ground weather data. The development of the discrete address beacon system data link, Doppler weather radar network, and various information processing techniques are described.

Description: The operational designs and performance capabilities of ground-based and airborne lightning detection systems are reviewed. The airborne Stormscope system is described and compared with onboard radar and the lightning detection and ranging system (LDAR). Two examples of difference-in-time-of-arrival systems for detecting spherics from discharges in electrified clouds are described: (1) The LDAR system and (2) Taylor's lightning mapping system. Next, an interferometric system adapted to lightning location is discussed. Finally, systems that are based upon crossed-loop magnetic direction finding principles but which have been refined and improved to accurately locate lightning discharges to ground are reviewed.

Description: The phenomenology of lightning and lightning measurement techniques are briefly examined with a particular reference to aeronautics. Developments made in airborne and satellite detection methods are reported. NASA research efforts are outlined which cover topics including in-situ measurements, design factors and protection, remote optical and radio frequency measurements, and space vehicle design.

Description: The ability of various types of remote probes to measure wind is discussed. Two important advantages over in-situ sensors are reported: (1) their ability to measure atmospheric parameters without disturbing the air flow; (2) their ability to scan through large volumes of the atmosphere with relative ease. Direct measurement sensors such as anemometers and wind vanes are categorized into two groups; active and passive. Acoustic radar, microwave radar, and lidar are included in the first group and the latter group is typified by the infrared radiometers.

Description: The problem of development of instrumentation for providing wind speed and direction information directly or indirectly to a pilot in the cockpit is considered. The pilots need for horizontal wind information at various stages of flight (i.e., at liftoff, in approach and departure corridors, and even in flight outside the terminal area) are emphasized.

Description: The basic reference material for gust design criteria are cited. The status of clear air turbulence meteorology (forecasting and detection) is discussed. The directions of further research technology is indicated.

Description: A list of icing instrumentation requirements are presented. Because of the Army's helicopter orientation, many of the suggestions are specific to rotary wing aircraft; however, some of the instrumentation are also suitable for general aviation aircraft.

Description: The types and usage categories of icing instrumentation are discussed. The state-of-the-art for the technology governing the use of icing instrumentation is reported with particular emphasis on ground based facilities for icing tests.

Description: The measurement of atmospheric turbulence is discussed in terms of a pilots viewpoint. Two areas of measurement are considered: frequency and severity of turbulence. Suggestions are given for helping the pilot solve the turbulence problem.

Description: An overview is given of the developmental status of aviation weather services. Particular attention is given to justifying the need for better, more reliable service. The accomplishments of several automatic weather stations are discussed.

Description: The dynamic and rapid growth of technology in the area of aviation meteorology research and development are described with emphasis on the measurement of hazardous weather phenomena. Aspects of both onboard instrumentation and ground based facilities are evaluated in terms of their effectiveness of in avoiding hazards due to atmospheric electricity and lightning. Methods of alleviating terminal are hazards such as fog, low visibility and ceilings are also described.

Description: Various aspects of aviation meteorology are discussed with respect to their relative effects on aircraft terminal operations. Existing data on turbulence and wind shear from aircraft and towers are summarized. The significance of obtaining more real time wind and temperature information is emphasized. The application and testing of various radiometer devices are also described. Airborne methods to indicate wind differences at flight altitude and at touchdown are reported.

Description: Three projects are suggested which could be done using the Doppler lidar. The first is a cooperative effort at BAO, the purpose of which is to check out instrumentation and contribute to boundary layer investigations at BAO. The second concerns unintended weather modification. Its purpose is to detect mechanisms by which regions of industry and urbanization modify weather. The cirrus cloud study proposes to characterize cirrus clouds by their lidar signal and to compare lidar and visually observed characteristics.

Description: General criteria for a flight test option are that: (1) there be a good opportunity for comparison with other measurement techniques; (2) the flow to be measured is of considerable scientific or practical interest; and (3) the airborne laser Doppler system is well suited to measure the required quantities. The requirement for comparison, i.e., ground truth, is particularly important because this is the first year of operation for the system. It is necessary to demonstrate that the system does actually measure the winds and compare the results with other methods to provide a check on the system error analysis. The uniqueness of the laser Doppler system precludes any direct comparison, but point measurements from tower mounted wind sensors and two dimensional fields obtained from radars with substantially different sampling volumes are quite useful.

Description: The experiment strives to improve understanding of the physics of convective precipitation. Major emphasis is placed on obtaining a good description of the whole convective precipitation system. A framework is presented within which single, significant, tractable problems are investigated.

Description: The objectives of the system are to provide the system operator with real time system performance check and to provide data recording of all SSMS data. Meteorologists are provided with real time indication of meteorological data measurements including aid for directing flight profiles in real time and aid for directing SSMS operations. A day-to-day feedback is provided to meteorologists, system operators, and flight crews for flight planning on subsequent flight tests days.

Description: The problem is to operate on two scalar fields to produce a vector field, to produce user products from the vector field, and to establish reliability of results. Data problems encountered include sparse measurements, irregular distribution, varying quality, imperfect orthogonality, aliasing due to sampling volume, and measurements not simultaneous. Desired algorithm characteristics, solution elements, and characteristics of the model are listed. The seven simulation elements, eight algorithm steps and the required user inputs are given.

Description: A group meeting was assembled to focus on the planning of specific experiments, to establish some priorities, identify interested scientists who would like to participate, establish any special requirements, make recommendations on data processing, and to prepare flight plan outlines. Since the number of convective storms in the CCOPE (Cooperative Convective Precipitation Experiment) field experiment area are limited to only a few days during the operational time period the flight plans must be designed with a hierarchy of abort experiments so that the easily identified and lowest probability events should take priority until their quota is filled.

Description: The development of pulsed and continuous wave Doppler lidars for atmospheric measurement is discussed. A description of how the lidar systems operate is presented. The scanning mode is also described.

Description: An interpretation of the Doppler lidar return is presented. Possible applications of the system to severe storm research are discussed. The present project schedule of the Doppler lidar system is outlined.

Description: Coherent Doppler lidar appears to hold great promise in contributing to the basic store of knowledge concerning flow field characteristics in the nonprecipitous regions surrounding severe storms. The Doppler lidar, through its ability to measure clear air returns, augments the conventional Doppler radar system, which is most useful in the precipitous regions of the storm. A brief description of the Doppler lidar severe storm measurement system is provided along with the technique to be used in performing the flow field measurements. The application of the lidar is addressed, and the planned measurement program is outlined.

Description: The Doppler lidar system is potentially a very powerful measurement system. Three areas concerning the system are discussed: (1) error analysis of the system to verify the results; (2) application of the system to agricultural burning in California central valley; and (3) oceanographic possibilities of the system.

Description: Doppler lidar measurements of phenomena associated with water clouds (such as aerosols) are discussed. The purpose of the measurements and details of executing the experiment are described.

Description: Four aspects of the Doppler lidar are discussed: (1) error analysis of the system; (2) design of the first field program; (3) potential areas of application; and (4) verification of Doppler lidar data by independent measurements.

Description: Areas of research which can be significantly aided by the Doppler lidar airborne system are described. The need for systematic development of the airborne Doppler lidar is discussed. The technology development associated with the systematic development of the system will have direct application to satellite systems for which the lidar also promises to be an effective instrument for atmospheric research.

Description: The potential application of the Doppler lidar measurements to the determination of material (e.g., water vapor) and energy budgets, momentum transports, etc., in the environment at all stages and in the development of convective clouds are discussed.

Description: The ability to map velocities over a large area on one side of the aircraft flight path offers a number of opportunities to elucidate scientific questions related to atmospheric dynamics. Several types of experiments which are possible are described.

Description: Calculation of eletric field vectors within and near an isolated thundercloud (which has a given volume charge distribution) is envisaged. The maximum field strength within the thundercloud is calculated. The effects of screening layers, both above and below the thundercloud may be investigated, as well time-dependent potential problem. The study can lead to a better understanding of the charge distributions in a thundercloud, which in turn may shed some light on the actual mechanism of charging of a thundercloud.

Description: Data of daily mean temperatures recorded at the Kennedy Center during the period of 1957-1977 were analyzed to forecast daily mean temperatures and their thirty-day moving averages for a period of ten to fifteen days in a given month. Since it is found that the standard deviation is linear in the mean, a logarithmic transformation of the data is used for finding an integrated moving average process IMA by the Box-Jenkins aproach. The first differences of the transformed data seem to fit a moving average model with parameter value 2, MA(2). The consideration of seasonality factor makes the fit worse.

Description: A time-continuous statistical method is presented for the four dimensional assimilation of remote sounding temperatures based on radiance measurements from polar orbiting satellites. This method is applied to DST 6 data from the NOAA 4 and Nimbus 6 satellites. The state of the atmosphere throughout the test period was determined using a varying amount of satellite data from the NOAA 4 satellite only, from Nimbus 6 only, and from both satellites together. The methods tested included different variations of the statistical method, as well as more traditional methods. It is concluded that satellite derived temperature data can have a modest, but statistically significant positive impact on numerical weather prediction in the two to three day range, and that this impact is highly sensitive to the quantity of data available and to the assimilation method used.

Description: A proposal has been made to place a pulsed Doppler lidar on a space platform (Huffaker, et al., 1980; Emmitt, 1982) in a low earth orbit (200 to 800 km) to measure the atmospheric winds with a spatial resolution commensurate with the current continental rawinsonde network density - i.e., 300 to 500 km resolution. In the case of the space-based doppler lidar, the full range of space scales applies. Single shot pulses with dimensions of 10 x 1000 meters are used to sample areas 100,000 x 100,000 meters to resolved mass flow structure with wavelength of 1 million meters. Simulation studies, therefore, require an equally broad range of atmospheric models. A general circulation model is appropriate to answer questions regarding the impact of a global wind measuring system upon synoptic forecasts. Since the nominal resolution of the spacebased system is expected to be a few 100's of kilometers, then a numerical model with mesoscale dynamics is required. The meaning of an average Doppler shift within a laser pulse volume must be evaluated with models of turbulent/convective scale motions and aerosol gradients. Examples of how models on all these scales have been applied in an ongoing simulation study are presented. In particular, the uncertainties in a mesoscale wind estimate are separated into those arising from pulse scale variances and those due to sample distribution within a prescribed resolution volume. Trade-offs between accuracy and representativeness are discussed in terms of the model results.

Description: An experimental study in a baroclinic annulus with heating and cooling on the upper and lower horizontal surfaces was completed. Four basic regimes of flow were observed: (1) axisymmetric flow, (2) cellular (deep) convection, (3) convective rolls (boundary layer), and (4) baroclinic instability. There was no symmetric (or nearly symmetric) baroclinic instability observed, although it was determined by numerical calculations that we transversed regions in parameter space where the symmetric instability was present. The non-symmetric baroclinic instability (Eady type) was observed instead. Although the vertical depth was rather small and hence viscous damping was strong, large-amplitude baroclinic waves were made possible by imposing a very weak static stability.

Description: It was first necessary to arrive at a common set of attributes which described the relative importance of each Scientific Data Requirement (SDR) to the DOE CO2 Research Program. Many attributes were considered. Some were rejected because they related more to engineering considerations than to scientific ones. Finally four were selected: importance for early detection of CO2-induced effects; need for additional measurements; importance for model inputs; and importance for model outputs. Each SDR was scored on these attributes. These scores were categorical (for example, low, medium, and high) and formed the basis for assigning a relative value to each SDR. For this ranking a methodology based on dominance theory was used. The methodology and the selected SDRs are discussed.

Description: In order to extend the conventional baroclinic instability concept, one has to picture the growth process as resulting from the superposition of two neutrally stable baroclinic waves, an upper and a lower one, each wave propagating along a near-discontinuity in the potential vorticity (PV) field. The PV discontinuity for the lower wave is given by the non-uniformity of the thermal field at the ground, while the discontinuity for the upper wave is given by the contrast, in the 400 to 200 mb range, between the high-PV polar stratosphere and the low-PV subtropical troposphere. The horizontal PV radients mentioned are approximately opposed to each other, causing the wo waves to travel in the opposite direction. As Hoskins et al. (1985) show convincingly, a phase lock between the upper and lower wave may occur, coupled with a tendency toward mutual amplification. The conceptual model just outlined is particularly attractive to synoptic meteorologists because it does not require the two waves to be of initially small amplitude and thus does not fly in the face of observational evidence. This model, by allowing a finite perturbation velocity and a considerable range of relative phase speeds at the time when the upper and lower wave reach the proper phase lag for amplification, may lead to growth rates larger than those predicted by linear theory. aba R.J.F.

Description: An important problem in large-scale atmospheric dynamics is understanding the evolution of these blocking systems. Inspection of a large number of cases of 500 mb cyclonic and anticyclonic blocking vortices during recent winter seasons reveals that the occurrence of these systems is preceded by high amplitude (but not necessarily stationary) planetary waves at 500 mb and by intense synoptic-scale surface cyclone activity. A possible relationship between the cyclones and planetary waves during block evolution is thus hypothesized. Detailed diagnostic study of blocking cases during January 1977, February 1978 and November 1980 discloses that the development of 500 mb anticyclonic blocking vortices is preceded in time by the intense surface cyclogenesis between 500 mb planetary scale troughs and ridges, whereas blocking cyclonic vortices form following cyclogenesis near the axes of 500 mb troughs. A positive feedback between the cyclone and planetary waves is thus implied. The 500 mb height changes accompanying the above processes were analyzed in terms of quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity. During anticyclonic vortex development, there are spatially and temporally persistent calculated quasi-geostrophic height rises due to anticyclonic potential vorticity advections occurring near the cyclone track. Similarly, during cyclonic vortex development, there are spatially and temporally persistent calculated quasi-geostrophic height falls due to cyclonic potential vorticity advections occurring near the cyclone track.

Description: Recent observations of frontal systems passing over the PROFS network in Colorado by Shapiro (1984) indicate the horizontal scale of some fronts can be on the order of a few kilometers or less. Motivated by Shapiros results, esearchers re-ran an earlier numerical simulation of frontogenesis by Williams (1972) (where a very simple stretching deformation forcing of a front is considered) using as high a resolution in both the vertical and horizontal as was possible. Highest resolution that we considered consisted of a grid with a vertical spacing of 32 meters and a horizontal spacing of 260 meters in the immediate vicinity of the surface front. The purpose was to examine development of the frontal structures as the scale of the front became very small. Two sources for banded structures in clouds were found: (1) in the stationary waves above the front and (2) in waves propagating upward from breaking waves under the front.

Description: Low-order models with a mean zonal flow forced by zonally symmetric heating and one planetary-scale wave forced by topography have multiple flow equilibria. Two stable equilibria are characterized by strong zonal flow with low wave amplitude (high index circulation) and weak zonal flow with a high wave amplitude (low index circulation) fixed in phase with the topography. These two states presumably represent normal zonal circulation and a blocking configuration, respectively. When a shorter, baroclinically unstable wave is dded to this low-order model, the planetary-scale wave no longer stays in stable equilibrium states. Instead, the long wave remains in weather regimes or preferred regions in phase space. These regimes are, in general, different from the equilibria of the model with the planetary-scale wave only. Thus, the short unstable wave adds some randomness to planetary-scale circulation and changes its position with respect to the planetary-scale topography. The Reinhold and Pierrehumbert model is further explored here by adding a long-wave in the thermal forcing and exploring wider parameter space. When the symmetric thermal forcing is weak so that the short wave is stable, the planetary scale wave is fixed in amplitude and phase by the asymmetric forcing. However, when the symmetric forcing is increased to an unstable level, the planetary-scale wave becomes less organized. With asymmetric thermal forcing only (i.e., no topography) the long-wave is randomly distributed through phase space. Thermal forcing seems to be less effective in organizing weather regimes than topographic forcing.

Description: The earth's orography is composed of a wide variety of scales, each contributing to the spectrum of atmospheric motions. A well studied subject (originating with Charney and Eliassen) is the direct forcing of planetary scale waves by the planetary scale orography: primarily the Tibetan plateau and the Rockies. However, because of the non-linear terms in the equations of dynamic meteorology, even the smallest scales of mountain induced flow can contribute to the planetary scale if the amplitude of the small scale disturbance is sufficintly large. Two possible mechanisms for this are illustrated. First, preferentially located lee cyclones can force planetary waves by their meridional transport of heat and momentum (Hansen and Chen). Recent theories are helping to explain the phenomena of lee cyclogenesis (e.g., Smith, 1984, J.A.S.). Second, mesoscale mountain wave and severe downslope wind phenomena produce such a large local drag, that planetary scale waves can be produced. The mechanism of upscale transfer is easy to understand in this case as the standing planetary scale wave has a wavelength which depends on the mean structure of the atmosphere, and not on the width of the mountain (just as in small scale lee wave theory). An example of a theoretical description of a severe wind flow with very large drag is shown.

Description: Future developments in satellite meteorology are proposed and examined in the light of policy and funding changes.

Description: Atmospheric and surface fields produced from the TIROS N high resolution infrared sounder/microwave sounding unit data are discussed. The data were analyzed by direct physical inversion of the multispectral radiative transfer equation. Sea ice mapping and sea surface temperature determination are addressed.

Description: Some of the research opportunities that are available from geostationary satellite data, especially from MONEX during the Global Weather Experiment are described. In addition, the International Cloud Climatology Program is described and the use of satellite imagery in studying mesoscale convection complexes is discussed. Finally, information derived from satellite data on ocean winds is examined.

Description: The evidence that volcanic eruptions affect climate is reviewed. Single explosive volcanic eruptions cool the surface by about 0.3 C and warm the stratosphere by several degrees. Although these changes are of small magnitude, there have been several years in which these hemispheric average temperature changes were accompanied by severely abnormal weather. An example is 1816, the "year without summer" which followed the 1815 eruption of Tambora. In addition to statistical correlations between volcanoes and climate, a good theoretical understanding exists. The magnitude of the climatic changes anticipated following volcanic explosions agrees well with the observations. Volcanoes affect climate because volcanic particles in the atmosphere upset the balance between solar energy absorbed by the Earth and infrared energy emitted by the Earth. These interactions can be observed. The most important ejecta from volcanoes is not volcanic ash but sulfur dioxide which converts into sulfuric acid droplets in the stratosphere. For an eruption with its explosive magnitude, Mount St. Helens injected surprisingly little sulfur into the stratosphere. The amount of sulfuric acid formed is much smaller than that observed following significant eruptions and is too small to create major climatic shifts. However, the Mount St. Helens eruption has provided an opportunity to measure many properties of volcanic debris not previously measured and has therefore been of significant value in improving our knowledge of the relations between volcanic activity and climate.

Description: The objectives were to (1) develop a method of estimating open-ocean rainfall and associated latent heat release via GOES IR satellite imagery; (2) to use remote precipitation estimates to investigate the role of diabatic forcing in the maintenance of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) during FGGE SOP-1/; and (3) to assess the significance of non-quasigeostrophic transports of energy in several cyclogenetic events preceding the development of a North Atlantic blocking episode during FGGE SOP-1. The bulk of the early FY-85 work was directed toward development of the single pixel indexing technique (SPI) which assigns a rain rate to GOES IR black-body temperatures, T sub b, via a non-linear statistical relationship developed with raingauge measurements. The method was tested against radar-derived rainfall during GATE raingauge measurements over coastal North Carolina and island stations in the South Pacific Ocean. Skill was found comparable to Arkin's method (1979 MWR) in convective situations. The results suggest that transferring a rain algorithm from one oceanic regime to another may not require substantial modification of coefficients or tunable parameters. Twelve H mean rainfall amounts were produced for the region bounded by 10 deg. N, 50 deg. S, 120 deg W and 170 deg. E during the period January 10 to 16, 1979. These estimates constitute a basic input to diagnostic calculations of diabatic heating over the SPCZ region. ECMWF level III-b data analyses was used to compute several components of the APE balance in the South Pacific during the period January 10 to 18, 1979.

Description: In June 1978, the Seasat satellite was launched carrying, among other instruments, the Seasat-A scatterometer system (SASS), which produced ambiguous wind speed and direction data at the ocean surface. A fifteen day subset of dealiased wind vector data with the inherent ambiguities removed was produced for the period of September 6-20, 1978. On September 8, SASS began to observe a development of frontal cyclogenesis in the South Pacific off the east coast of New Zealand, in an area of few surface observations. A large mature cyclone contained weak warm and cold fronts and an occlusion with a strong horizontal wind shear. Satellite imagery shows that a strong upper-level jet streak was moving rapidly over the area of the surface frontal occlusion and as the jet passed over this area a new vortex formed. This cyclogenesis event was studied using 50-km resolution scatterometer surface wind data. High-resolution fields of wind vectors, divergence and vorticity are computed and plotted from the scatterometer data to study the structure and development of the newly formed cyclonic vortex, not otherwise possible using conventional observations.

Description: The NASA scatterometer (NSCAT) is a spaceborne scatterometer scheduled to be deployed in the mid-1990s. An analysis of the wind retrieval error distribution for wind estimates based on backscatter measurements made by the NSCAT instrument is presented. The results are based on an end-to-end simulation of the scatterometer instrument and data processing. In general, the distribution of the wind speed error, when normalized, is independent of the true wind speed and direction. The wind speed error can be characterized by a normal distribution. The wind direction error is independent of the true wind speed, but depends on the true wind direction. Details for wind vectors with true wind speeds from 3 m/s to 33 m/s and true wind directions from 0 to 360 deg are presented.

Description: Modulation of a rain wave pattern by longer waves has been studied. An analytical model taking into account capillarity effects and obliquity of short waves has been developed. Modulation rates in wave number and amplitude have been computed. Experiments were carried out in a wave tank. First results agree with theoretical models, but higher values of modulation rates are measured. These results could be taken into account for understanding the radar response from the sea surface during rain.

Description: Rainfall modification of directional scatterometer response from the sea surface was simulated in wind-wave tank experiments. Data show that for the range of conditions in laboratory experiments, rain enhances radar cross section for all azimuthal angles relative to wind direction. This result broadens previous measurements, which showed that scatterometer response increases with increasing rainfall for radars pointing upwind. But more to the point, the data also show that the directional dynamic-range of scatterometry diminishes rapidly as rainfall rate increases. Thus, while it may be possible to determine wind speed and direction during rain, it will require adequate system sensitivity.

Description: An account of the construction of surface pressure fields from Seasat-A satellite scatterometer (SASS) winds as carried out by different methods, and the comparison of these pressure fields with those derived from in situ ship observations is presented. On the assumption that the pressure adjusts itself instantaneously to the motion field, it may be computed by various methods. One of these makes use of planetary boundary theory, and of the possible techniques in this category a two-layer iterative scheme admitting of the parametrization of diabatic and baroclinic effects and of secondary flow was chosen. A second method involves the assumption of zero two-dimensional divergence, leading to a Laplace's equation (the balance equation) in pressure, with the wind field serving as a forcing function. This method does not accommodate adiabatic or baroclinic effects, and requires a knowledge of the pressure at all boundary points. Two comparison fields are used for validation: the conventional operational analyses of the US National Meteorological Center (NMC), and the special analyses of the Gulf of Alaska Experiment (GOASEX), which were done by hand. The results of the computations were as follows: (1) The pressure fields, as computed from the SASS winds alone, closely approximated the NMC fields in regions where reasonable in situ coverage was available (typically, one or two mb differences over most of the chart, three to four mb in extreme cases); (2) In some cases the SASS-derived pressure fields displayed high-resolution phenomena not detected by the NMC fields, but evident in the GOASEX data; and, (3) As expected, the pressure fields derived from the balance equation were much smoother and less well resolved than the SASS-derived or NMC fields. The divergence as measured from the SASS winds is smaller than, but of the same order of magnitude as, the vorticity.

Description: An analysis of the April 10, 1979 Red River Valley severe weather outbreak, using a three-hourly rawinsonde network, indicates that the preconvection environment is influenced by upper-level and lower-level tropospheric jet streaks (ULJs and LLJs) that act to destabilize the atmosphere, and contribute to low-level heat and moisture transports and convergence that act to initiate the storm system. Transformation of an indirect circulation noted within the exit region of the ULJ at 1200 and 1500 GMT is observed within a six-hour period. Dramatic changes are found in the jet streak circulations over a short period of time as the system deviates from that approximated by the geostrophic momentum approximation, and these deviations suggest that adjustments asssociated with ULJs in this case could not be resolved using a simplified two-dimensional approach.

Description: Application of the bounded-derivative and normal-mode methods to a simple linear barotropic model at a typical middle latitude shows that the two methods lead to identical constraints up to a certain degree of approximation. Beyond this accuracy the two methods may differ from each other. When applied to a global nonlinear barotropic model using real data, again the two methods lead to similar balanced initial states. The gravity oscillations in the unbalanced height field, which have amplitudes of up to 60 m with a dominant periodicity of about 5 to 6 h, are practically eliminated by both initialization methods. The rotational wind component is smooth even for the unbalanced initial state. The small-scale spatial features of the irrotational wind component are drastically reduced by initialization. Both the nonlinear normal-mode and the bounded-derivative initialization methods yield similar divergence fields centered around the areas of highest orography. The comparison shows that there is no significant loss of information in the mass and momentum fields, despite the fact that the bounded-derivative method employs only the original, rotational wind component to construct a balanced initial state compared to the normal-mode method, which, in addition, makes use of the unbalanced divergent wind and height fields.

Description: The prelaunch, launch, and postlaunch synoptic-scale weather conditions on January 28, 1986 are described. Particular consideration is given to upper-level jet streams, vertical wind shear, and the possible effect of shear-induced turbulence on Cape Canaveral at the time of the Shuttle launch. General data revealing the relations between wind shear and turbulence and jet streams are discussed. The NWS operational and surface radiosonde data, visible and IR GOES imagery, and total ozone data obtained from TOMS on Nimbus-7 are analyzed. Numerical simulations of the weather conditions were conducted. The simulations and observational data are compared, and the data reveal the juxtaposition of two distinct jet-stream systems (a polar front jet and a subtropical jet) over north-central Florida the morning of the launch. Recommendations for improving the observing system at Cape Canaveral are discussed.

Description: It is argued that because microwave radiation interacts much more strongly with hydrometeors than with cloud particles, microwave measurements from space offer a significant chance of making global precipitation estimates. Over oceans, passive microwave measurements are essentially attenuation measurements that can be very closely related to the rain rate independently of the details of the drop-size distribution. Over land, scattering of microwave radiation by the hydrometeors, especially in the ice phase, can be used to estimate rainfall. In scattering, the details of the drop-size distribution are very important and it is therefore more difficult to achieve a high degree of accuracy. The SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager), a passive microwave imaging sensor that will be launched soon, will have dual-polarized channels at 85.5 GHz that will be very sensitive to scattering by frozen hydrometeors. Other sensors being considered for the future space missions would extend the ability to estimate rain rates from space. The ideal spaceborne precipitation-measurement system would use the complementary strengths of passive microwave, radar, and visible/infrared measurements.

Description: Monthly zonal mean observations of H2O and CH4 made by the limb infrared monitor of the stratosphere and the stratospheric and mesospheric sounder instruments on Nimbus 7 have been used to investigate whether the H2O mixing ratios in the stratosphere are consistent with a source via the oxidation of CH4. While both sets of data show considerable seasonally varying structure, total hydrogen (neglecting molecular hydrogen) is relatively featureless with a mean value over the stratosphere of 6.0 + or - 0.35 ppmm(1sigma) for the five-month period studied. The uniformity of the total hydrogen fields points to the validity of the CH4 oxidation hypothesis. The derived fields of total hydrogen are used to deduce a mean H2O mixing ratio for air as it enters the stratosphere of 2.7 + or - 0.35 ppmv (1sigma) from which a desiccation temperature may be deduced.

Description: An objective empirical analysis technique is employed to investigate the extent to which satellite-obtained measurements (GOES IR and TOVS data) of a tropical cyclone and its environment can be used to predict cyclone motion. The paper describes the procedure used to process the satellite derived data in order to optimize their possible predictive value, the technique used in developing the regression algorithms, and the results of testing these algorithms using the Lachenbrach and Mickey (1968) procedure. The data were examined alone and in conjunction with available nonsatellite climatological and persistence variables for each storm. These predictors are similar to those used in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) CLIPPER model. The performances obtained using the Nichols Research Corporation CLIPPER model and the NHC CLIPPER model are compared, using homogeneous data sets for the comparisons. Major differences in results were found to be related to differences in the models.

Description: The use of VAS radiances and conventional surface data to determine the optimum resolution and accuracy of low-level precipitable water fields retrieved from geosynchronous satellite observations is examined. VAS retrievals of precipitated water (PW) are compared with various channel selections in the regression algorithm and with the split window algorithm. The split window algorithm and the linear regression algorithm are described. Consideration is given to the sounding-field-of-view (SFOV) resolution; the data reveal that the optimum resolution for the split window algorithm is at 15-60 km resolution, and 30-60 km SFOV resolution is optimal for the regression method. Statistics and images from PW retrieval experiments conducted on July 13, 1981 are presented and utilized to determine optimum channel selection. A fast contouring method for VAS sounding images is proposed.

Description: A one-dimensional cloud model for predicting precipitation is examined. The relation between the averaged brightness temperature and the rainfall rate for various microwave frequencies and field-of-view (FOVs) is studied. The model is utilized to simulate the rainfall rate and brightness temperature data for 19 GHz, a 30 km FOV, 37 GHz, and a combination of IR and microwave data. The data produced by the simulations are described and analyzed.

Description: The development of a cloud model-radiative transfer model combination for computing average brightness temperature, T(B), is discussed. The cloud model and radiative transfer model used in this study are described. The relations between rain rate, cloud and rain water, cloud and precipitation ice, and upwelling radiance are investigated. The effects of the rain rate relations on T(B) under different climatological conditions are examined. The model-derived T(B) results are compared to the 92 and 183 GHz aircraft observations of Hakkarinen and Adler (1984, 1986) and the radar-estimated rain rate of Hakkarinen and Adler (1986); good correlation between the data is detected.

Description: The 12-year output of a 15-wavenumber GCM experiment is analyzed, with the objective of describing the spatial and temporal behavior of dominant intraseasonal variations. The parameters analyzed include five-day averages of wind, geopotential height, sea level pressure, and precipitation. It is demonstrated that the spatial structure, propagation characteristics, and seasonal dependence of the model features are consistent with observations reported in the literature. The model findings are interpreted in terms of the current theoretical understanding of tropical and extratropical motions.

Description: The effects of a varying sensor spatial resolution on the cloud fraction derived by reflectance threshold (RT), IR temperature threshold (IRT), hybrid bispectral threshold (HBT) and spatial coherence (SC) methods for cloud retrieval from remotely sensed data were examined experimentally. Eight subscenes from four scenes acquired with the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) in 1982, 1983 and 1985 were used in the trials. All cloud retrieval methods were applied to extract the cloud fraction in all the subscences for comparison with the total cloud amount determined from the TM band 4 data, which had 28.5 m resolution.

Description: Techniques are presented and their application illustrated for analysis of remotely sensed data collected with an aircraft carrying a multispectral cloud radiometer and an advanced microwave moisture sounder. The instruments were used on NASA high altitude flights to perform cloud field experiments. Sample IR and microwave brightness temperature data are provided as functions of the ice water path and of the ice water content. Quantitative models are described for deriving the cloud ice (or liquid) water content and the cloud geometric thickness from the radiometric data.

Description: Lidar and passive radiance sensing data on cirrus clouds gathered in instrumented high altitude aircraft flights are analyzed, with emphasis on cirrus emittance characteristics. The data were collected with a U-2 aircraft flying at about 19 km altitude. Lidar data defined the vertical structure of the cloud which, when combined with independent atmospheric temperature data, permitted radiance to be derived from thermal radiance data. Sample return lidar images are provided of cirrus and cirrostratus clouds, along with the calculated emittance data.

Description: Preliminary results are reported from a simulation carried out with the UCLA/Goddard GCM to investigate cloud radiative forcing phenomena. Of particular interest was cloud feedback, i.e., the changes in forcing brought about by climate change. Early results indicate that clouds cool the tropical oceans and land surface and warm the tropical atmosphere.

Description: A new scheme has been developed to model the planetary boundary layer in the GLAS Fourth Order GCM through explicit resolution of its vertical structure into two or more vertical layers. This involves packing the lowest layers of the GCM close to the ground and developing new parameterization schemes that can express the turbulent vertical fluxes of heat, momentum and moisture at the earth's surface and between the layers that are contained with the PBL region. Offline experiments indicate that the combination of the modified level 2.5 second-order turbulent closure scheme and the 'extended surface layer' similarity scheme should work well to simulate the behavior of the turbulent PBL even at the coarsest vertical resolution with which such schemes will conceivably be used in the GLA Fourth Order GCM.

Description: Lightning location data from northeastern Colorado and central Florida for the summer months of 1983 have been studied to ascertain the diurnal development of spatial distributions of flash frequencies. The data sources are discussed, and for both investigated regions, the regional geographic and climatic characteristics, the day-to-day variability of lightning activity, the diurnal cycle over the entire region, the spatial distribution of lightning activity, the diurnal changes of spatial distribution, and the diurnal variation of lightning at individual sites are described in detail. In both regions, the time and space distributions of lightning are modulated by the topographic features and the contrasts of the terrain. Lightning activity is a relatively rare and variable phenomenon in both regions when day-to-day frequencies are considered. There thus must be meteorological parameters that determine the extent and frequency of lightning occurrence.

Description: The three-dimensional structure of the dominant modes of wintertime variability are examined, and the mode structures are determined by an EOF analysis of the coupled vertical mean and shear streamfunction fields for a wide range of time-scale classes. The time mean energy conversions are determined from a two-layer quasigeostrophic model. Lag-cross correlations between the dominant low-frequency modes tend to be small and/or symmetric about zero, the high frequency modes are found to show highly asymmetric sinusoidal cross correlation functions similar to traveling waves, and some intermediate and short-time scale modes exhibit correlations indicating an association with the decaying phases of blocking in the Pacific. It is suggested that the mean flow barotropic (baroclinic) instabilities are an important source of variance for some of the lowest (highest) fluctuations considered.

Description: Observations of medium-scale transient wave activity in the middle-latitude Southern Hemisphere summer stratosphere are interpreted using isentropic potential vorticity (IPV) distributions inferred from temperature data from the Nimbus-7 Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) instrument. Despite problems with errors in reference-level synoptic height information, the derived IPV distributions clearly exhibit dynamically coherent signatures of eddy mixing due to medium-scale disturbances in the lower-middle stratosphere during early January 1979. The IPV distributions are shown to be strongly correlated with those of a contemporaneous set of isentropic maps of quasi-conservative tracers such as ozone and nitric acid. The results suggest that IPV maps inferred from satellite temperature data provide a useful diagnostic for studies of large-scale dynamics and/or transport in the extratropical stratosphere. Furthermore, the comparatively high vertical resolution of the LIMS data has enabled the vertical attenuation of Southern Hemisphere wave activity to be diagnosed in greater detail than could be achieved from nadir-viewing satellite information.

Description: Northern-Hemisphere twice-daily 500-mb-geopotential-height data for November-March 1975-1980 and November-December 1981 and NOAA satellite measurements of outgoing longwave radiation for the same period are processed to remove seasonal cycles and Fourier-decomposition bandpassed to study variations with 20-70-d periods. The results of analysis using correlation, complex EOF, and composite techniques are presented in extensive maps and graphs and characterized. Extratropical wavetrains are found to evolve systematically from Eurasia eastward to North America and the North Atlantic on 5-6-d time scales, while the intraseasonal variation in tropical convection is dominated by a dipolelike east-west feature propagating from the western Indian Ocean to the dateline with a quasi-period of 40-50 d. The possibility that normal modes coupled between the tropics and midlatitudes may be responsible for these phenomena is considered.

Description: A wind profile radar demonstration project was sponsored by the Space Transportation System (STS) Program Office to study the feasibility of incorporating continuous, high time resolution radar wind data into STS operations. This project required wind profile radars to be deployed in the vicinity of the Shuttle launch site into an environment quite unlike typical VHF profiler sites. Two 50 MHz radars were operated at the Kennedy Space Center in environments that were noisy in terms of RFI, large stationary ground clutter sources, non-stationary clutter sources, and heavy local aircraft traffic. Processing compensation for these operational constraints magnified design limitations of the research-level radars used in the demonstration. This report addresses the importance of system design for unique or particular applications with reference to finite radiation patterns, zero-Doppler processing, radar frequency, and beam pointing.

Description: Low visibility due to warm fog has caused costly disruptions in the case of aircraft schedules, and fog-related difficulties can arise in connection with Space Shuttle flights. As current methods of fog elimination are not entirely satisfactory, Kelley (1983) has proposed a new brute force procedure for warm fog dispersal. This procedure makes use of recycled water sprays. Fog droplets are removed by coalescence/rainout. Details regarding the involved approaches are described, and a demonstration of the method is discussed. Attention is given to tests conducted in October 1984, visual range improvement in response of water spray fog dispersal, a systematic investigation concerning a selection of firefighting nozzles, and histograms of fog droplet number concentration measured in the spray curtain outflow with a forward scattering spectrometer probe.

Description: The inflatable sphere technique represents a relatively inexpensive approach for obtaining density and wind data between 30 and 90 km. The procedure in its current form is adequate for operational rocket network type application. However, detailed information is lost because of oversmoothing. The present study had the objective to determine whether more detailed wind profiles could be obtained using the inflatable falling sphere and Hirobin. Hirobin is the name for the sphere reduction program used at NASA Wallops Island, VA. In connection with the aim of the study, information had to be obtained regarding the precision of the radar used to track the sphere. For this purpose, data from three C-band radars, each with a different tracking precision, were simulated. On the basis of the results of the investigation, it is concluded that, given a radar with a known precision and a perfectly performing sphere, the Hirobin filters can be adjusted to provide small-scale wind information to about 70 km.

Description: Calculations of the two-dimensional, species-independent mixing coefficients for two-dimensional chemical models for the troposphere and stratosphere are performed using quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity fluxes and gradients from 4 years of National Meteorological Center data for the four seasons in both hemispheres. Results show that the horizontal mixing coefficient values for the winter lower stratosphere are broadly consistent with those currently employed in two-dimensional models, but the horizontal mixing coefficient values in the northern winter upper stratosphere are much larger than those usually used.

Description: An analysis of the QE II storm of September 9-11, 1978 presents evidence for the existence of upper-level baroclinic processes upstream of the rapidly developing cyclone. The analysis shows that a deepening shortwave trough was located 400 to 500 km upstream of the site of the storm 12 h prior to rapid cyclogenesis. The trough was associated with: (1) a polar jet marked by 65 m/s winds in its core and significant vertical and horizontal wind shear, (2) positive vorticity advection and divergence at the 300 mb level, and (3) an intense frontal zone that extended from 300 mb down to the surface. It also appears that a tropopause fold likely extruded stratospheric air down to the 700-800 mb level, 400-500 km upstream of the surface low and 12 h prior to the explosive development phase of the cyclone. These findings raise questions about Gyakum's (1983) assertion that the QE II storm developed in an area in which the baroclinic support was confined to the lower troposphere and the related assertion by Anthes et al. (1983) that upper-level forcing upstream of the area of rapid cyclogenesis was weak and apparently not important in this case.

Description: The global scale divergent and rotational flow components of the Global Weather Experiment (GWE) are diagnosed from three different analyses of the data. The rotational flow shows closer agreement between the analyses than does the divergent flow. Although the major outflow and inflow centers are similarly placed in all analyses, the global kinetic energy of the divergent wind varies by about a factor of 2 between different analyses while the global kinetic energy of the rotational wind varies by only about 10 percent between the analyses. A series of real data assimilation experiments has been performed with the GLA general circulation model using different amounts of tropical wind data during the First Special Observing Period of the Global Weather Experiment. In exeriment 1, all available tropical wind data were used; in the second experiment, tropical wind data were suppressed; while, in the third and fourth experiments, only tropical wind data with westerly and easterly components, respectively, were assimilated. The rotational wind appears to be more sensitive to the presence or absence of tropical wind data than the divergent wind. It appears that the model, given only extratropical observations, generates excessively strong upper tropospheric westerlies. These biases are sufficiently pronounced to amplify the globally integrated rotational flow kinetic energy by about 10 percent and the global divergent flow kinetic energy by about a factor of 2. Including only easterly wind data in the tropics is more effective in controlling the model error than including only westerly wind data. This conclusion is especially noteworthy because approximately twice as many upper tropospheric westerly winds were available in these cases as easterly winds.