ALBERT

Description: The objectives of this report was to develop a methodology to predict the time-dependent reliability (probability of failure) of brittle material components subjected to transient thermomechanical loading, taking into account the change in material response with time. This methodology for computing the transient reliability in ceramic components subjected to fluctuation thermomechanical loading was developed, assuming SCG (Slow Crack Growth) as the delayed mode of failure. It takes into account the effect of varying Weibull modulus and materials with time. It was also coded into a beta version of NASA's CARES/Life code, and an example demonstrating its viability was presented.

Description: Processed ball clay samples used in the production of ceramics and samples of the ceramic products were collected and analyzed for the presence and concentration of the 2,3,7,8-Cl substituted polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and -furans (PCDDs/PCDFs). The processed ball clay had average PCDD concentrations of 3.2 ng/g toxic equivalents, a congener profile, and isomer distribution consistent with those found previously in raw ball clay. The PCDF concentrations were below the average limit of detection (LOD) of 0.5 pg/g. The final fired ceramic products were found to be free of PCDDs/PCDFs at the LODs. A consideration of the conditions involved in the firing process suggests that the PCDDs, if not destroyed, may be released to the atmosphere and could represent an as yet unidentified source of dioxins to the environment. In addition, the PCDDs in clay dust generated during manufacturing operations may represent a potential occupational exposure.

Description: The sampling capability of Tenax-TA tubes, used in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's solid sorbent air sampler to trap and concentrate contaminants from air aboard spacecraft, was improved by incorporating two sorbents within the tubes. Existing tubes containing only Tenax-TA allowed highly volatile compounds to "break through" during collection of a 1.5 L air sample. First the carbon molecular sieve-type sorbents Carboxen 569 and Carbosieve S-III were tested for their ability to quantitatively trap the highly volatile compounds. Breakthrough volumes were determined with the direct method, whereby low ppm levels of methanol or Freon 12 in nitrogen were flowed through the sorbent tubes at 30 mL/min, and breakthrough was detected by gas chromatography. Breakthrough volumes for methanol were about 9 L/g on Carboxen 569 and 11 L/g on Carbosieve S-III; breakthrough volumes for Freon 12 were about 7 L/g on Carboxen 569 and 〉 26 L/g on Carbosieve S-III. Next, dual-bed tubes containing either Tenax-TA/Carbosieve S-III, Tenax-TA/Carboxen 569, or Carbotrap/Carboxen 569 to a 10-component gas mixture were exposed, in dry and in humidified air (50% relative humidity), and percentage recoveries of each compound were determined. The Tenax-TA/Carboxen 569 combination gave the best overall recoveries (75-114% for the 10 compounds). Acetaldehyde had the lowest recovery (75%) of the 10 compounds, but this value was still an improvement over either the other two sorbent combinations or the original single-sorbent tubes.

Description: Ferrihydrite, which is known to form in the presence of oxygen and to be stabilized by the adsorption of Si, PO4 and SO4, is ubiquitous in the fine-grained fractions of permeable reactive barrier (PRB) samples from the U.S. Coast Guard Support Center (Elizabeth City, NC) and the Denver Federal Center (Lakewood, CO) studied by high-resolution transmission electron microscopy and selected area electron diffraction. The concurrent energy-dispersive X-ray data indicate a strong association between ferrihydrite and metals such as Si, Ca, and Cr. Magnetite, green rust 1, aragonite, calcite, mackinawite, greigite and lepidocrocite were also present, indicative of a geochemical environment that is temporally and spatially heterogeneous. Whereas magnetite, which is known to form due to anaerobic Fe0 corrosion, passivates the Fe0 surface, ferrihydrite precipitation occurs away from the immediate Fe0 surface, forming small (〈0.1 microm) discrete clusters. Consequently, Fe0-PRBs may remain effective for a longer period of time in slightly oxidized groundwater systems where ferrihydrite formation occurs compared to oxygen-depleted systems where magnetite passivation occurs. The ubiquitous presence of ferrihydrite suggests that the use of Fe0-PRBs may be extended to applications that require contaminant adsorption rather than, or in addition to, redox-promoted contaminant degradation.

Description: Urban metabolism measures quantitatively a city's load on the natural environment. We update the Newcombe et al. (3) pioneering study of Hong Kong's urban metabolism in 1971, highlighting trends in resource consumption and waste generation. Per capita food, water and materials consumption have surged since the early 1970s by 20%, 40%, and 149%, respectively. Tremendous pollution has accompanied this growing affluence and materialism, and total air emissions, CO2 outputs, municipal solid wastes, and sewage discharges have risen by 30%, 250%, 245%, and 153%. As a result, systemic overload of land, atmospheric and water systems has occurred. While some strategies to tackle deteriorating environmental quality have succeeded, greater and more far-reaching changes in consumer behavior and government policy are needed if Hong Kong is to achieve its stated goal of becoming "a truly sustainable city" in the 21st century.

Description: Solid-waste treatment in space for Advanced Life Support, ALS, applications requires that the material can be safely processed and stored in a confined environment. Many solid-wastes are not stable because they are wet (40-90% moisture) and contain levels of soluble organic compounds that can contribute to the growth of undesirable microorganisms with concomitant production of noxious odors. In the absence of integrated Advanced Life Support systems on orbit, permanent gas, trace volatile organic and microbiological analyses were performed on crew refuse returned from the volume F "wet" trash of three consecutive Shuttle missions (STS-105, 109, and 110). These analyses were designed to characterize the short-term biological stability of the material and assess potential crew risks resulting from microbial decay processes during storage. Waste samples were collected post-orbiter landing and sorted into packaging material, food waste, toilet waste, and bulk liquid fractions deposited during flight in the volume F container. Aerobic and anaerobic microbial loads were determined in each fraction by cultivation on R2A and by acridine orange direct count (AODC). Dry and ash weights were performed to determine both water and organic content of the materials. Experiments to determine the aerobic and anaerobic biostability of refuse stored for varying periods of time were performed by on-line monitoring of CO2 and laboratory analysis for production of hydrogen sulfide and methane. Volatile organic compounds and permanent gases were analyzed using EPA Method TO15 by USEPA et al. [EPA Method TO15, The Determination of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) in Ambient Air using SUMMA, Passivated Canister Sampling and Gas Chromatographic Analysis,1999] with gas chromatography/mass spectrometry and by gas chromatography with selective detectors. These baseline measures of waste stream content, labile organics, and microbial load in the volume F Shuttle trash provide data for waste subsystem analysis and atmospheric management within the ALS Project. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

Description: Rejection characteristics of nitrogen compounds were examined for reverse osmosis, nanofiltration, and low-pressure reverse osmosis membranes. The rejection of nitrogen compounds is explained by integrating experimental results with calculations using the extended Nernst-Planck model coupled with a steric hindrance model. The molecular weight and chemical structure of nitrogen compounds appear to be less important in determining rejection than electrostatic properties. The rejection is greatest when the Donnan potential exceeds 0.05 V or when the ratio of the solute radius to the pore radius is greater than 0.8. The transport of solute in the pore is dominated by diffusion, although convective transport is significant for organic nitrogen compounds. Electromigration contributes negligibly to the overall solute transport in the membrane. Urea, a small organic compound, has lower rejection than ionic compounds such as ammonium, nitrate, and nitrite, indicating the critical role of electrostatic interaction in rejection. This suggests that better treatment efficiency for organic nitrogen compounds can be obtained after ammonification of urea.

Description: Various aspects of the Continuous Observations of the Rotation of the Earth (CORE) program are presented, including the science goals, validation strategy, and evolutionary plan.

Description: The study of Earth science is like a giant puzzle, says Braulio Sanchez. "The more you know about the individual pieces, the easier it is to fit them together." A researcher with Goddard's Space Geodesy Branch, Sanchez has been using NCCS supercomputer and mass storage resources to show how the angular momenta of the atmosphere, the oceans, and the solid Earth are dynamically coupled. Sanchez has calculated the magnitude of atmospheric torque on the planet and has determined some of the possible effects that torque has on Earth's rotation.

Description: The air on this mostly sunny January day is crisp and the wind is blustery. The morning's National Weather Service 6-hour forecast had accurately predicted these conditions for the Baltimore-Washington area and the 2-3 day extended outlook was almost perfect. The previous week, the National Center for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) 6-10 day temperature and precipitation outlook for the general trends for the' region was correct as well. However, no forecast could have predicted specific details about this day. It is 28.5 F in the sunshine bright enough for dark sunglasses, and windy enough to blow off a hat. Such details are impossible to foresee with any accuracy and are outside the scope of routine weather prediction. Equally difficult is accurately forecasting weather beyond about 2 weeks.

Description: Researchers with NASA's Season-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) refer to different types of memory when running models on NCCS computers: the computer memory required for their models and the memory of the atmosphere or the ocean. Because of the atmosphere's chaotic nature, its memory is short. For weather predictions, the initial information taken from atmospheric observations has a limited useful life. Currently, there is no way to take observations, initialize an atmosphere model, integrate ahead in time, and make an accurate weather forecast beyond about 2 weeks. After that, the system becomes chaotic. What conditions could be used to make predictions beyond 2 weeks? If not conditions in the atmosphere, then the memory must be found somewhere else. That place is in the oceans. Although most changes in the atmosphere vary on a short timescale, the weather being a prime example, some important large atmospheric climate variations occur over much longer timescales-month s, years, or decades. NSIPP is interested specifically in those phenomena that occur over timescales of several months to a few years, and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most significant of these.

Description: The main focus of this research is the retrieval of tropospheric aerosol information using a Multi-filter Rotating Shadowband Radiometer, Model MFR-7, placed on the roof of the Science Building at Medgar Evers College. This instrument makes precise measurements of atmospheric extinction of the direct solar beam simultaneously at six wavelengths (475, 500, 615, 670, 840 and 940 nm) at one minute intervals throughout the day. We are interested in measuring the changes in the optical depth of ambient aerosols, mass, effective particle size, aerosol size distribution, and chemical composition of ambient particulate matter in the Greater New York City Area. Results will be compared with data obtained by A. Lacis, B. Carlson and B. Cairns at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

Description: Faculty in the Department of Physical, Environmental and Computer Sciences strongly believe in the concept that undergraduate research and research-related activities must be integrated into the fabric of our undergraduate Science and Technology curricula. High level skills, such as problem solving, reasoning, collaboration and the ability to engage in research, are learned for advanced study in graduate school or for competing for well paying positions in the scientific community. One goal of our academic programs is to have a pipeline of research activities from high school to four year college, to graduate school, based on the GISS Institute on Climate and Planets model.

Description: This viewgraph presentation provides information on the work done at NASA's Glenn Research Center on the ultra-efficient engine technology (UEET) program. The intent at the program's outset in 1998 was to establish a foundation for the next generation of aircraft engines for both commercial and military applications. A primary focus of this program was to be the development and utilization of technologies which would improve both subsonic and high-speed flight capabilities. Included in the presentation are details on the development of propulsion systems for varied types of aircraft, and results from attempts at reduction of emissions.

Description: The Environmental Program Office at the Kennedy Space Center is interested in finding solutions and to promote R&D that could contribute to solve the problems of air, soil and groundwater contamination. This study is undertaken as part of NASA's environmental stewardship program. The objective of this study involves the removal of nitrogen oxides from the flue gases of the boilers at KSC using hydrogen peroxide. Phases 1 and 2 of this study have shown the potential of this process to be used as an alternative to the current methods of treatment used in the power industry. This report summarizes the research done during the 10-week summer program. During this period, support has been given to implement the modifications suggested for Phase 3 of the project, which focus on oxidation reactions carried at lower temperatures using a microwave source. The redesign of the flue gas inlet and optimization for the scrubbing system was the main objective of this research.

Description: A new method of estimating the downward ozone flux across the midlatitude tropopause is introduced. The algorithm derives the estimate from total column ozone observations. Vertical information is given by analysis potential vorticity fields. This method yields an annual estimate of 500 +/- 140 Tg/yr stratospheric injection of ozone into the northern hemisphere, midlatitude troposphere. The downward ozone flux exhibits the expected spring maximum and autumn minimum. The annual distribution of the cross-tropopause ozone, transport by latitude is consistent with the seasonal frequency and (list distribution) of baroclinic systems. This algorithm also produces localized results and call thus be applied to a single case or global studies.

Description: Is it cooler than normal or warmer? Are we having an El Nino or La Nina? Haw intense is it, and how is it affecting the atmosphere? These are sorts of questions that climate studies hope to answer. Reaching further into the past than the short memory of the atmosphere and projecting far into the past than the future, climate studies examine trends and changes that take place over decades. Looking at this length of time is necessary to monitor and understand climate variability and to determine if significant trends exist - global warming seasons of increased flooding, a coming drought. For climatologists, these, studies must have good data sets. Ideally, data would be collected continuously over a period of decades without any major changes to the instrumentation us for collection, which would introduce incongruities and make trends hard to follow. Also, the data should be in the form of time and space-averaged measurements or estimates convenient for climate studies.

Description: Stormwater runoff plumes, municipal wastewater plumes, and natural hydrocarbon seeps are important pollution hazards for the heavily populated Southern California Bight (SCB). Due to their small size, dynamic and episodic nature, these hazards are difficult to sample adequately using traditional in situ oceanographic methods. Complex coastal circulation and persistent cloud cover can further complicate detection and monitoring of these hazards. We use imagery from space-borne synthetic aperture radar (SAR), complemented by field measurements, to examine these hazards in the SCB. The hazards are detectable in SAR imagery because they deposit surfactants on the sea surface, smoothing capillary and small gravity waves to produce areas of reduced backscatter compared with the surrounding ocean. We suggest that high-resolution SAR, which obtains useful data regardless of darkness or cloud cover, could be an important observational tool for assessment and monitoring of coastal marine pollution hazards in the SCB and other urbanized coastal regions.

Description: Recent years have witnessed significant progress on the miniaturization of mass spectrometers for a variety of field applications. This article describes the development and application of mass spectrometry (MS) instrumentation to support of goals of the U.S. space program. Its main focus is on the two most common space-related applications of MS: studying the composition of planetary atmospheres and monitoring air quality on manned space missions. Both sets of applications present special requirements in terms of analytical performance (sensitivity, selectivity, speed, etc.), logistical considerations (space, weight, and power requirements), and deployment in perhaps the harshest of all possible environments (space). The MS instruments deployed on the Pioneer Venus and Mars Viking Lander missions are reviewed for the purposes of illustrating the unique features of the sample introduction systems, mass analyzers, and vacuum systems, and for presenting their specifications which are impressive even by today's standards. The various approaches for monitoring volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in cabin atmospheres are also reviewed. In the past, ground-based GC/MS instruments have been used to identify and quantify VOCs in archival samples collected during the Mercury, Apollo, Skylab, Space Shuttle, and Mir missions. Some of the data from the more recent missions are provided to illustrate the composition data obtained and to underscore the need for instrumentation to perform such monitoring in situ. Lastly, the development of two emerging technologies, Direct Sampling Ion Trap Mass Spectrometry (DSITMS) and GC/Ion Mobility Spectrometry (GC/IMS), will be discussed to illustrate their potential utility for future missions. c 2001 American Society for Mass Spectrometry.

Description: High-sensitivity detection of formaldehyde (CH2O) at 3.5315 micrometers (2831.64 cm-1) is reported with a diode-laser-pumped, fiber-coupled, periodically poled LiNbO3 spectroscopic source. This source replaced the Pb-salt diode laser Dewar assembly of an existing tunable diode-laser absorption spectrometer designed for ultrasensitive detection of CH2O. Spectra are recorded with 2f-modulation spectroscopy and zero-air rapid background subtraction. Initial measurements reported here, determined from multiple measurements of a flowing 7.7 parts per billion by volume (ppbv, parts in 10(9)) CH2O in air mixture, indicate replicate precisions as low as 0.24 ppbv.

Description: This paper presents performance results for pulse detonation engines taking into account the effects of dissociation and recombination. The amount of sensible heat recovered through recombination in the PDE chamber and exhaust process was found to be significant. These results have an impact on the specific thrust, impulse and fuel consumption of the PDE.

Description: The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) was established in 1963 primarily to provide rocket engine testing services for several NASA programs. The groundwater underlying the site has been contaminated as a result of historical operations. Groundwater contaminants include several volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and two semi-volatile compounds: N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA) and N-nitrodimethylamine (DMN). This paper discusses some of the technical, analytical, regulatory, and health risk issues associated with the contaminant plume. The plume has moved approximately 2.5 miles downgradient of the facility industrial boundary, with evidence of continued migration. As a result, NASA has proposed a pump and treat system using air strippers and ultraviolet (UV) oxidation to stabilize future movement of the contaminant plume. The system has been designed to treat 1,076 gallons (4,073 liters) per minute, with provisions for future expansion. The UV oxidation process was selected to treat NDMA-contaminated groundwater based on successes at other NDMA-contaminated sites. Bench- and pilot-scale testing of WSTF groundwater confirmed the ability of UV oxidation to destroy NDMA and generated sufficient data to design the proposed full-scale treatment system. NDMA is acutely toxic and is a probable human carcinogen. EPA-recommended health risk criteria for the residential consumption of NDMA/DMN-contaminated groundwater was used to determine that a 1.0 x 10(exp -6) excess cancer risk corresponds to 1.7 parts per trillion (ppt). EPA analytical methods are unable to detect NDMA and DMN in the low ppt range. EPA's current Appendix IX analytical method used to screen for NDMA, Method 8270, can detect NDMA only at levels that are orders of magnitude greater than the recommended health risk level. Additionally, EPA Method 607, the most sensitive EPA approved method, has a detection limit of 150 ppt. This corresponds to an excess cancer risk of 9.0 x 10(exp -5), which exceeds the State of New Mexico's water quality standard of a cancer risk less than 1 x 10(exp -5). The treatment system has been engineered to treat contaminated groundwater to levels significantly below the New Mexico standard. However, the inability of EPA-approved analytical methods to detect NDMA and DMN at low ppt levels, and to provide verification of compliance with the 1 x 10(exp -5) cancer risk, introduces a notable risk to the long-term operation of the system. WSTF has been working with Southwest Research Institute to develop a non-EPA analytical method that can achieve a reporting limit of 1 ppt, which corresponds to an excess cancer risk of 7.6 x 10(exp -7). WSTF is currently developing a proposal to obtain approval from the New Mexico Environment Department (NMED) of this non-EPA method.

Description: The determination of an accurate quantitative understanding of the role of tropospheric aerosols in the earth's radiation budget is extremely important because forcing by anthropogenic aerosols presently represents one of the most uncertain aspects of climate models. Here the authors present a systematic comparison of three different analyses of satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth based on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)- measured radiances with optical depths derived from six different models. Also compared are the model-derived clear-sky reflected shortwave radiation with satellite-measured reflectivities derived from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) satellite. The three different satellite-derived optical depths differ by between -0.10 and 0.07 optical depth units in comparison to the average of the three analyses depending on latitude and month, but the general features of the retrievals are similar. The models differ by between -0.09 and +0.16 optical depth units from the average of the models. Differences between the average of the models and the average of the satellite analyses range over -0.11 to +0.05 optical depth units. These differences are significant since the annual average clear-sky radiative forcing associated with the difference between the average of the models and the average of the satellite analyses ranges between -3.9 and 0.7 W m(exp -2) depending on latitude and is -1.7 W m (exp -2) on a global average annual basis. Variations in the source strengths of dimethylsulfide (DMS)-derived aerosols and sea salt aerosols can explain differences between the models, and between the models and satellite retrievals of up to 0.2 optical depth units. The comparison of model-generated reflected shortwave radiation and ERBE-measured shortwave radiation is similar in character as a function of latitude to the analysis of modeled and satellite-retrieved optical depths, but the differences between the modeled clear-sky reflected flux and the ERBE clear-sky reflected flux is generally larger than that inferred from the difference between the models and the AVHRR optical depths, especially at high latitudes. The difference between the mean of the models and the ERBE-analyzed clear-sky flux is 1.6 W m(exp -2). The overall comparison indicates that the model-generated aerosol optical depth is systematically lower than that inferred from measurements between the latitudes of 10 and 30 deg S. It is not likely that the shortfall is due to small values of the sea salt optical depth because increases in this component would create modeled optical depths that are larger than those from satellites in the region north of 30 deg N and near 50 deg S. Instead, the source strengths for DMS and biomass aerosols in the models may be too low. Firm conclusions, however, will require better retrieval procedures for the satellites, including better cloud screening procedures, further improvement of the model's treatment of aerosol transport and removal, and a better determination of aerosol source strengths.

Description: Biomass fires are both natural and anthropogenic in origin. The natural trigger is lightning, which leads to mid- and high-latitude fires and episodes of smoke and pollution associated with them. Lightning is also prominent in tropical regions when the dry season gives way to the wet season and lightning in convective systems ignites dry vegetation. Atmospheric consequences of biomass fires are complex. When considering the impacts of fires for a given ecosystem, inputs of fires must be compared to other process that emit trace gases and particles into the atmosphere. Other processes include industrial activity, fires for household purposes and biogenic sources which may themselves interact with fires. That is, fires may promote or restrict biogenic processes. Several books have presented various aspects of fire interactions with atmospheric chemistry and a cross-disciplinary review of a 1992 fire-oriented experiment appears in SAFARI: The Role of southern African Fires in Atmospheric and Ecological Environments. The IGAC/BIBEX core activity (see acronyms at end of Chapter) has sponsored field campaigns that integrate multiple aspects of fires ground-based measurements with an ecological perspective, atmospheric measurements with chemical and meteorological components, and remote sensing. This Chapter presents two aspects of biomass fires and the environment. Namely, the relationship between biomass burning and ozone is described, starting with a brief description of the chemical reactions involved and illustrative measurements and interpretation. Second, because of the need to observe biomass burning and its consequences globally, a summary of remote sensing approaches to the study of fires and trace gases is given. Examples in this Chapter are restricted to tropical burning for matters of brevity and because most burning activity globally is within this zone.

Description: In the Fall of 1997 the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program held an intensive observation period (IOP) to study atmospheric aerosols using in situ and remote sensing techniques at its Southern Great Plains (SGP) site near Lamont, Oklahoma. As part of this experiment five automated, tracking sunphotometers were present to measure total column aerosol optical depth over the three-week period. which included many clear days or parts of days that were clear. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO 1993) has recommended a comparison of tracking sunphotometers to assess the ability of different instruments to arrive at similar aerosol optical depths. It was further recommended that the comparison be staged at a clean mountain site. In fact, this comparison has not occurred, but the comparison that we describe in this paper is representative of what contemporary instruments may accomplish in an environment more typical of sites where aerosols measurements will be required. The measurements were made over the period 15 September to 5 October 1997. The aerosol loading varied from extremely clean to moderately turbid conditions. In the next section the instruments will be described along with a brief explanation of the calibration techniques. The third section contains the results compared graphically on moderately turbid and fairly clean days and in a table representing the whole period. The paper ends with a section of discussion and a summary of the results.

Description: The total temperatures (enthalpies) required to ground-test air-breathing (aero-propulsion) engines at high Mach number flight conditions can be achieved in a number of ways. Among these are: 1. Heat exchangers, including pre-heated ceramic beds. 2. direct electrical heating, e.g., arc discharge and resistance heaters. 3. Compression heating. 4. Shock heating, and 5. In-stream combustion, with oxygen replenishment to match air content. Each method has distinct advantages, disadvantages and limitations. All have a common characteristic of being designed for intermittent flow, due to the extreme energy required for continuous operation at simulated Mach numbers above about 3. All also distort the composition of atmospheric air to some degree, due to the high temperatures that occur in the plenum section prior to expansion of the flow to simulated flight conditions. In the case of in-stream combustion, the resulting test medium is commonly referred to as "vitiated air", being composed of oxygen, nitrogen and some fraction of combustion products.

Description: In situ observations of OH and HO2 from the Airborne Southern Hemisphere Ozone Experiment/Measurements for Assessing the Effects of Stratospheric Aircraft (ASHOE/MAESA), Stratospheric TRacers of Atmospheric Transport (STRAT), and Polar Ozone Loss in the Arctic Region in Summer (POLARIS) NASA ER-2 field campaigns are used to examine the partitioning of HO(x) in the lower stratosphere (tropopause to approx.21 km) and upper troposphere (approx.10 km to tropopause). These measurements span a latitude range from 70degS to 90degN and a variety of atmospheric conditions as a result of seasonal changes and altitude. The response of the observed [HO2]/[OH] to changes in temperature, [03], [CO], [NO], [CIO], and [BrO] is investigated. The measured ratio is accurately described (approx.+/-10%) by a steady-state model constrained by the measured mixing ratios of O3, CO, NO, CIO, and BrO, where the model is valid for conditions of HO(x) cycling much faster than HO(x) production and loss. The concentration of HO2 depends on [OH], which, to first order, has been observed to be a simple function of the solar zenith angle in the lower stratosphere. The partitioning between OH and HO2 is controlled by the local chemistry between the HO, radicals and O3, CO, NO, CIO, and BrO. The response of [HO(x)] to changes in [NO(x)] and [O3] is demonstrated. Further observations are necessary to illustrate the response of HO(x) to changes in halogen concentrations. A quantitative understanding of [HO2]/[OH] is important, since many of the reactions that control this ratio are directly involved in catalytic removal of O3 in the lower stratosphere and production of O3 in the upper troposphere.

Description: A common view is that the current global warming rate will continue or accelerate. But we argue that rapid warming in recent decades has been driven mainly by non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as chlorofluorocarbons, CH4, and N2O, not by the products of fossil fuel burning, CO2 and aerosols, the positive and negative climate forcings of which are partially offsetting. The growth rate of non-CO2 GHGs has declined in the past decade. If sources of CH4 and O3 precursors were reduced in the future, the change in climate forcing by non-CO2 GHGs in the next 50 years could be near zero. Combined with a reduction of black carbon emissions and plausible success in slowing CO2 emissions, this reduction of non-CO2 GHGs could lead to a decline in the rate of global warming, reducing the danger of dramatic climate change. Such a focus on air pollution has practical benefits that unite the interests of developed and developing countries. However, assessment of ongoing and future climate change requires composition specific long-term global monitoring of aerosol properties.

Description: In 1939, W. Weibull developed what is now commonly known as the "Weibull Distribution Function" primarily to determine the cumulative strength distribution of small sample sizes of elemental fracture specimens. In 1947, G. Lundberg and A. Palmgren, using the Weibull Distribution Function developed a probabilistic lifing protocol for ball and roller bearings. In 1987, E. V. Zaretsky using the Weibull Distribution Function modified the Lundberg and Palmgren approach to life prediction. His method incorporates the results of coupon fatigue testing to compute the life of elemental stress volumes of a complex machine element to predict system life and reliability. This paper examines the Zaretsky method to determine the probabilistic life and reliability of a model gas turbine disk using experimental data from coupon specimens. The predicted results are compared to experimental disk endurance data.

Description: If you want to know whether you will need sunscreen or an umbrella for tomorrow's picnic, you can simply read the local weather report. However, if you are calculating the impact of gas combustion on global temperatures, or anticipating next year's rainfall levels to set water conservation policy, you must conduct a more comprehensive investigation. Such complex matters require long-range modeling techniques that predict broad trends in climate development rather than day-to-day details. Climate models are built from equations that calculate the progression of weather-related conditions over time. Based on the laws of physics, climate model equations have been developed to predict a number of environmental factors, for example: 1. Amount of solar radiation that hits the Earth. 2. Varying proportions of gases that make up the air. 3. Temperature at the Earth's surface. 4. Circulation of ocean and wind currents. 5. Development of cloud cover. Numerical modeling of the climate can improve our understanding of both the past and, the future. A model can confirm the accuracy of environmental measurements taken. in, the past and can even fill in gaps in those records. In addition, by quantifying the relationship between different aspects of climate, scientists can estimate how a future change in one aspect may alter the rest of the world. For example, could an increase in the temperature of the Pacific Ocean somehow set off a drought on the other side of the world? A computer simulation could lead to an answer for this and other questions. Quantifying the chaotic, nonlinear activities that shape our climate is no easy matter. You cannot run these simulations on your desktop computer and expect results by the time you have finished checking your morning e-mail. Efficient and accurate climate modeling requires powerful computers that can process billions of mathematical calculations in a single second. The NCCS exists to provide this degree of vast computing capability.

Description: The impact of smoke aerosols generated from biomass burning activities in Southeast Asia on the total (direct and indirect) reflected solar radiation from clouds was investigated using satellite data. Narrowband measurements from UV to near-infrared wavelengths (from SeaWiFS and TOMS) were combined with broadband radiation measurements (from CERES). Using this information, we quantified how smoke aerosols change the cloud forcing spectrally and as a whole in the Southeast Asia region. In this region our results show that smoke is present over large areas of cloud-covered regions, and that the frequency of such occurrences is high in the boreal spring. Depending on the thickness of the smoke aerosol, the reflected solar radiation from clouds could he reduced by as much as 100 Watt/sq m, on average over the March 2000 data. We also found that the reduction in the reflectance of the clouds at 670 nm is large enough to lead to significant errors in cloud optical thickness retrievals from satellites such as AVHRR and MODIS.

Description: The mismatch between fossil isotopic data and climate models known as the cool-tropic paradox implies that either the data are flawed or we understand very little about the climate models of greenhouse warming. Here we question the validity of the climate models on the scientific background of orbital noise in the Earth system. Our study shows that the insolation pulsation induced by orbital noise is the common cause of climate change and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane. In addition, we find that the intensity of the insolation pulses is dependent on the latitude of the Earth. Thus, orbital noise is the key to understanding the troubling paradox in climate models.

Description: Over 50 years of observations from climate stations on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula show that this is a region of extreme interannual variability in near-surface temperatures. The region has also experienced more rapid warming than any other part of the Southern Hemisphere. In this paper we use a new dataset of satellite-derived surface temperatures to define the extent of the region of extreme variability more clearly than was possible using the sparse station data. The region in which satellite surface temperatures correlate strongly with west Peninsula station temperatures is found to be quite small and is largely confined to the seas just west of the Peninsula, with a northward and eastward extension into the Scotia Sea and a southward extension onto the western slopes of Palmer Land. Correlation of Peninsula surface temperatures with surface temperatures over the rest of continental Antarctica is poor confirming that the west Peninsula is in a different climate regime. The analysis has been used to identify sites where ice core proxy records might be representative of variations on the west coast of the Peninsula. Of the five existing core sites examined, only one is likely to provide a representative record for the west coast.

Description: This report discusses the National Combustion Code (NCC). The NCC is an integrated system of codes for the design and analysis of combustion systems. The advanced features of the NCC meet designers' requirements for model accuracy and turn-around time. The fundamental features at the inception of the NCC were parallel processing and unstructured mesh. The design and performance of the NCC are discussed.

Description: This report provides an overview presentation of the 2000 NPSS (Numerical Propulsion System Simulation) Review and Planning Meeting. Topics include: 1) a background of the program; 2) 1999 Industry Feedback; 3) FY00 Status, including resource distribution and major accomplishments; 4) FY01 Major Milestones; and 5) Future direction for the program. Specifically, simulation environment/production software and NPSS CORBA Security Development are discussed.

Description: This report outlines the GRC RBCC Concept for Multidisciplinary Analysis. The multidisciplinary coupling procedure is presented, along with technique validations and axisymmetric multidisciplinary inlet and structural results. The NPSS (Numerical Propulsion System Simulation) test bed developments and code parallelization are also presented. These include milestones and accomplishments, a discussion of running R4 fan application on the PII cluster as compared to other platforms, and the National Combustor Code speedup.

Description: This report outlines the detailed simulation of Aircraft Turbofan Engine. The objectives were to develop a detailed flow model of a full turbofan engine that runs on parallel workstation clusters overnight and to develop an integrated system of codes for combustor design and analysis to enable significant reduction in design time and cost. The model will initially simulate the 3-D flow in the primary flow path including the flow and chemistry in the combustor, and ultimately result in a multidisciplinary model of the engine. The overnight 3-D simulation capability of the primary flow path in a complete engine will enable significant reduction in the design and development time of gas turbine engines. In addition, the NPSS (Numerical Propulsion System Simulation) multidisciplinary integration and analysis are discussed.

Description: This report outlines the Space Transportation Propulsion Systems for the NPSS (Numerical Propulsion System Simulation) program. Topics include: 1) a review of Engine/Inlet Coupling Work; 2) Background/Organization of Space Transportation Initiative; 3) Synergy between High Performance Computing and Communications Program (HPCCP) and Advanced Space Transportation Program (ASTP); 4) Status of Space Transportation Effort, including planned deliverables for FY01-FY06, FY00 accomplishments (HPCCP Funded) and FY01 Major Milestones (HPCCP and ASTP); and 5) a review current technical efforts, including a review of the Rocket-Based Combined-Cycle (RBCC), Scope of Work, RBCC Concept Aerodynamic Analysis and RBCC Concept Multidisciplinary Analysis.

Description: The Environmental Program Office at the Kennedy Space Center is interested in finding solutions and to promote research and development (R&D) that could contribute to solve the problems of air, soil, and groundwater contamination. This study is undertaken as part of NASA's environmental stewardship program. The objective of this study involves the removal of nitrogen oxides from the flue gases of the boilers at KSC using hydrogen peroxide. Phase 1 of this study have shown the potential of this process to be used as an alternative to the current methods of treatment used in the power industry. This report summarizes the research done during the ten-week summer program. During this period, support has been given to implement the modifications suggested for Phase 2 of the project, which focus on oxidation reactions carried at lower temperatures using an ultraviolet source. The redesign and assembly of the modifications for the scrubbing system was the main objective of this research.

Description: This viewgraph presentation outlines the Joint Group on Pollution Prevention (JG-PP) partnership. Details are given on what groups comprise JG-PP, the proven methodology for what JG-PP can accomplish, the common problems, joint solutions, and shared efforts, and some of the JG-PP projects.

Description: The aerospace industry has conquered numerous environmental challenges during the last decade. The aerospace industry of today has evolved due in part to the environmental challenges, becoming stronger, more robust, learning to push the limits of technology, materials and manufacturing, and performing cutting edge engineering.

Description: The analysis of data from the MODIS instrument on the Terra platform to derive global distribution of aerosols assumes a set of relationships between the blue, rho (sub blue), the red, rho (sub red), and 2.1 micrometers, rho (sub 2.1), spectral channels. These relations have been established from a series of measurements indicating that rho (sub blue) approximately 0.5 rho (sub red) approximately 0.25 rho (sub 2.1). Here we use a model to describe the transfer of radiation through a vegetation canopy composed of randomly oriented leaves to assess the theoretical foundations for these relationships. The influence of varying fractional vegetation coverage is simulated simply as a linear combination of pure soil and pure vegetation conditions, also known as Independent Pixel Approximation (IPA). Calculations for a wide range of leaf area indices and vegetation fractions show that rho (sub blue) is consistently about 1/4 of rho (sub 2.1) as used by MODIS for the whole range of analyzed cases, except for very dark soils, such as those found in burn scars. For its part, the ratio rho (sub red)/rho (sub 2.1) varies from less than the empirically derived value of 1/2 for dense and dark vegetation (rho (sub 2.1) less than 0.1), to more than 1/2 for bright mixture of soil and vegetation. This is in agreement with measurements over uniform dense vegetation, but not with measurements over mixed dark scenes. In the later case, the discrepancy is probably mitigated by shadows due to uneven canopy and terrain on a large scale. It is concluded that the value of this ratio should ideally be made dependent on the land cover type in the operational processing of MODIS data, especially over dense forests.

Description: In winter, large interannual fluctuations in the surface temperature are observed over central Europe. Comparing warm February 1990 with cold February 1996, a satellite-retrieved surface (skin) temperature difference of 9.8 K is observed for the region 50-60 degrees N; 5-35 degrees E. Previous studies show that advection from the North Atlantic constitutes the forcing to such fluctuations. The advection is quantified by Index I(sub na), the average of the ocean-surface wind speed over the eastern North Atlantic when the direction is from the southwest (when the wind is from another direction, it counts as a zero speed to the average). Average I(sub na) for February 1990 was 10.6 m/s, but for February 1996 I(sub na) was only 2.4 m/s. A large value of I(sub na) means a strong southwesterly flow which brings warm and moist air into central Europe at low level, producing a steeper tropospheric lapse rate. Strong ascending motions at 700 mb are observed in association with the occurrence of enhanced warm, moist advection from the ocean in February 1990 producing clouds and precipitation. Total precipitable water and cloud-cover fraction have larger values in February 1990 than in 1996. The difference in the greenhouse effect between these two scenarios, this reduction in heat loss to space, can be translated into a virtual radiative heating of 2.6 W/square m above the February 1990 surface/atmosphere system, which contributes to a warming of the surface on the order of 2.6 K. Accepting this estimate as quantitatively meaningful, we evaluate the direct effect, the rise in the surface temperature in Europe as a result of maritime-air inflow, as 7.2 K (9.8 K-2.6 K). Thus, fractional reinforcement by the greenhouse effect is 2.6/7.2, or 36%, a substantial positive feedback.

Description: The morphology and evolution of the stratospheric ozone (O3) distribution at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are examined for the late summer and fall seasons of 1999. This time period sets the O3 initial condition for the SOLVE/THESEO field mission performed during winter 1999-2000. In situ and satellite data are used along with a three-dimensional model of chemistry and transport (CTM) to determine the key processes that control the distribution of O3 in the lower-to-middle stratosphere. O3 in the vortex at the beginning of the winter season is found to be nearly constant from 500 to above 800 K with a value at 3 ppmv +/- approx. 10%. Values outside the vortex are up to a factor of 2 higher and increase significantly with potential temperature. The seasonal time series of data from POAM shows that relatively low O3 mixing ratios, which characterize the vortex in late fall, are already present at high latitudes at the end of summer before the vortex circulation sets up. Analysis of the CTM output shows that the minimum O3 and increase in variance in late summer are the result of: 1) stirring of polar concentric O3 gradients by nascent wave-driven transport, and 2) an acceleration of net photochemical loss with decreasing solar illumination. The segregation of low O3 mixing ratios into the vortex as the circulation strengthens through the fall suggests a possible feedback role between O3 chemistry and the vortex formation dynamics. Trajectory calculations from O3 sample points early in the fall, however, show only a weak correlation between initial O3 mixing ratio and potential vorticity later in the season consistent with order-of-magnitude calculations for the relative importance of O3 in the fall radiative balance at high latitudes. The possible connection between O3 chemistry and the dynamics of vortex formation does suggest that these feedbacks and sensitivities need to be better understood in order to make confident predictions of the recovery of NH O3.

Description: Observations of the ocean, atmosphere, and ice made by Ice-Ocean Environmental Buoys (IOEBs) indicate that mixing events reaching the depth of the halocline have occurred in various regions in the Arctic Ocean. Our analysis suggests that these mixing events were mechanically forced by intense storms moving across the buoy sites. In this study, we analyzed these mixing events in the context of storm developments that occurred in the Beaufort Sea and in the general area just north of Fram Strait, two areas with quite different hydrographic structures. The Beaufort Sea is strongly influenced by inflow of Pacific water through Bering Strait, while the area north of Fram Strait is directly affected by the inflow of warm and salty North Atlantic water. Our analyses of the basin-wide evolution of the surface pressure and geostrophic wind fields indicate that the characteristics of the storms could be very different. The buoy-observed mixing occurred only in the spring and winter seasons when the stratification was relatively weak. This indicates the importance of stratification, although the mixing itself was mechanically driven. We also analyze the distribution of storms, both the long-term climatology as well as the patterns for each year in the last two decades. The frequency of storms is also shown to be correlated- (but not strongly) to Arctic Oscillation indices. This study indicates that the formation of new ice that leads to brine rejection is unlikely the mechanism that results in the type of mixing that could overturn the halocline. On the other hand, synoptic-scale storms can force mixing deep enough to the halocline and thermocline layer. Despite a very stable stratification associated with the Arctic halocline, the warm subsurface thermocline water is not always insulated from the mixed layer.

Description: With the launch of the MODIS sensor on the Terra spacecraft, new data sets of the global distribution and properties of aerosol are being retrieved, and need to be validated and analyzed. A system has been put in place to generate spatial statistics (mean, standard deviation, direction and rate of spatial variation, and spatial correlation coefficient) of the MODIS aerosol parameters over more than 100 validation sites spread around the globe. Corresponding statistics are also computed from temporal subsets of AERONET-derived aerosol data. The means and standard deviations of identical parameters from MOMS and AERONET are compared. Although, their means compare favorably, their standard deviations reveal some influence of surface effects on the MODIS aerosol retrievals over land, especially at low aerosol loading. The direction and rate of spatial variation from MODIS are used to study the spatial distribution of aerosols at various locations either individually or comparatively. This paper introduces the methodology for generating and analyzing the data sets used by the two MODIS aerosol validation papers in this issue.

Description: In winter, large interannual fluctuations in the surface skin temperature are observed over central Europe: we observe a difference of 9.8 K comparing warm February 1990 with cold February 1996 for the region 50-60 degrees N; 5-35 degrees E. Previous studies show that advection from the North Atlantic constitutes the forcing to such fluctuations. The advection is quantified by Index I(sub na), the average of the ocean-surface wind speed over the eastern North Atlantic when the direction is from the southwest (when the wind is from another direction, it counts as a zero speed to the average). Average Ina for February 1990 was 10.6 in s(exp -1), but for February 1996 I(sub na) was only 2.4 m s(exp -1). A large value of I(sub na) means a strong southwesterly flow which brings warm and moist air into Europe at low level, producing a steeper tropospheric lapse rate. Strong ascending motions result, which we observe in February 1990 at 700 mb. The near-surface moisture rises to higher (and cooler) levels, producing clouds and precipitation. Total preciptable water and cloud-cover fraction have larger values in February 1990 than in 1996. The difference in the greenhouse effect between these two scenarios can be translated into a virtual irradiating source of 2.6 W m(exp -2) above the February 1990 atmosphere, which, as an order of magnitude estimate, contributes to the warming of the surface by 2.6 K. If we accept this estimate as numerically pertinent, the direct effect stands as 7.2 K (9.8 K - 2.6 K), and therefore its greenhouse-effect reinforcement is by 36%. This constitutes a substantial positive feedback to the direct effect, which is the inflow of warm air to the low troposphere over Europe.

Description: The NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) regional climate model (RegCM2) with time-dependent lateral meteorological fields provided by a 130-year transient increasing CO2 simulation of the NCAR Climate System Model (CSM) has been used to investigate the mechanism of enhanced ground temperature warming over the TP (Tibetan Plateau). From our model results, a remarkable tendency of warming increasing with elevation is found for the winter season, and elevation dependency of warming is not clearly recognized in the summer season. This simulated feature of elevation dependency of ground temperature is consistent with observations. Based on an analysis of surface energy budget, the short wave solar radiation absorbed at the surface plus downward long wave flux reaching the surface shows a strong elevation dependency, and is mostly responsible for enhanced surface warming over the TP. At lower elevations, the precipitation forced by topography is enhanced due to an increase in water vapor supply resulted from a warming in the atmosphere induced by doubling CO2. This precipitation enhancement must be associated with an increase in clouds, which results in a decline in solar flux reaching surface. At higher elevations, large snow depletion is detected in the 2xCO2run. It leads to a decrease in albedo, therefore more solar flux is absorbed at the surface. On the other hand, much more uniform increase in downward long wave flux reaching the surface is found. The combination of these effects (i.e. decrease in solar flux at lower elevations, increase in solar flux at higher elevation and more uniform increase in downward long wave flux) results in elevation dependency of enhanced ground temperature warming over the TP.

Description: Accurate mean ages for stratospheric air have been derived from a spatially and temporally comprehensive set of in situ observations of CO2, CH4, and N2O obtained from 1992 to 1998 from the NASA ER-2 aircraft and balloon flights. Errors associated with the tropospheric CO2 seasonal cycle and interannual variations in the CO2 growth rate are less than 0.5 year throughout the stratosphere and less than 0.3 year for air older than 2 years (N2O less than 275 ppbv), indicating that the age spectra are broad enough to attenuate these influences over the time period covered by these observations. The distribution of mean age with latitude and altitude provides detailed, quantitative information about the general circulation of the stratosphere. At 20 km, sharp meridional gradients in the mean age are observed across the subtropics. Between 20 and 30 km, the average difference in mean age between the tropics and midlatitudes is approximately 2 years, with slightly smaller differences at higher and lower altitudes. The mean age in the midlatitude middle stratosphere (approx. 25-32 km) is relatively constant with respect to altitude at 5 plus or minus 0.5 years. Comparison with earlier balloon observations of CO2 dating back to the 1970s indicates that the mean age of air in this region has remained within 11 year of its current value over the last 25 years. A climatology of mean age is derived from the observed compact relationship between mean age and N2O. These characteristics of the distribution of mean age in the stratosphere will serve as critically needed diagnostics for models of stratospheric transport.

Description: Numerous studies suggest that local feedback of surface evaporation on precipitation, or recycling, is a significant source of water for precipitation. Quantitative results on the exact amount of recycling have been difficult to obtain in view of the inherent limitations of diagnostic recycling calculations. The current study describes a calculation of the amount of local and remote geographic sources of surface evaporation for precipitation, based on the implementation of three-dimensional constituent tracers of regional water vapor sources (termed water vapor tracers, WVT) in a general circulation model. The major limitation on the accuracy of the recycling estimates is the veracity of the numerically simulated hydrological cycle, though we note that this approach can also be implemented within the context of a data assimilation system. In the WVT approach, each tracer is associated with an evaporative source region for a prognostic three-dimensional variable that represents a partial amount of the total atmospheric water vapor. The physical processes that act on a WVT are determined in proportion to those that act on the model's prognostic water vapor. In this way, the local and remote sources of water for precipitation can be predicted within the model simulation, and can be validated against the model's prognostic water vapor. As a demonstration of the method, the regional hydrologic cycles for North America and India are evaluated for six summers (June, July and August) of model simulation. More than 50% of the precipitation in the Midwestern United States came from continental regional sources, and the local source was the largest of the regional tracers (14%). The Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic regions contributed 18% of the water for Midwestern precipitation, but further analysis suggests that the greater region of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean may also contribute significantly. In most North American continental regions, the local source of precipitation is correlated with total precipitation. There is a general positive correlation between local evaporation and local precipitation, but it can be weaker because large evaporation can occur when precipitation is inhibited. In India, the local source of precipitation is a small percentage of the precipitation owing to the dominance of the atmospheric transport of oceanic water. The southern Indian Ocean provides a key source of water for both the Indian continent and the Sahelian region.

Description: Mass injection upstream of the tip of a high-speed axial compressor rotor is a stability enhancement approach known to be effective in suppressing small in tip-critical rotors. This process is examined in a transonic axial compressor rotor through experiments and time-averaged Navier-Stokes CFD simulations. Measurements and simulations for discrete injection are presented for a range of injection rates and distributions of injectors around the annulus. The simulations indicate that tip injection increases stability by unloading the rotor tip and that increasing injection velocity improves the effectiveness of tip injection. For the tested rotor, experimental results demonstrate that at 70 percent speed the stalling flow coefficient can be reduced by 30 percent using an injected mass- flow equivalent to 1 percent of the annulus flow. At design speed, the stalling flow coefficient was reduced by 6 percent using an injected mass-fiow equivalent to 2 percent of the annulus flow. The experiments show that stability enhancement is related to the mass-averaged axial velocity at the tip. For a given injected mass-flow, the mass-averaged axial velocity at the tip is increased by injecting flow over discrete portions of the circumference as opposed to full-annular injection. The implications of these results on the design of recirculating casing treatments and other methods to enhance stability will be discussed.

Description: A design is proposed for a space home Fabry-Perot interferometer targeted explicitly for the measurement of the total column Of CO2 having a precision better than 1 part in 370.

Description: The Arctic Ocean is the smallest of the Earth's four major oceans, covering 14x10(exp 6) sq km located entirely within the Arctic Circle (66 deg 33 min N). It is a major player in the climate of the north polar region and has a variable sea ice cover that tends to increase its sensitivity to climate change. Its temperature, salinity, and ice cover have all undergone changes in the past several decades, although it is uncertain whether these predominantly reflect long-term trends, oscillations within the system, or natural variability. Major changes include a warming and expansion of the Atlantic layer, at depths of 200-900 m, a warming of the upper ocean in the Beaufort Sea, a considerable thinning (perhaps as high as 40%) of the sea ice cover, a lesser and uneven retreat of the ice cover (averaging approximately 3% per decade), and a mixed pattern of salinity increases and decreases.

Description: Observations made in Channel 2 (53.74 GHz) of the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) radiometer, flown onboard sequential, sun-synchronous, polar-orbiting NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) operational satellites, indicate that the mean temperature of the atmosphere over the globe increased during the period 1980 to 1999. In this study, we have minimized systematic errors in the time series introduced by satellite orbital drift in an objective manner. This is done with the help of the onboard warm-blackbody temperature, which is used in the calibration of the MSU radiometer. The corrected MSU Channel 2 observations of the NOAA satellite series reveal that the vertically-weighted global-mean temperature of the atmosphere, with a peak weight near the mid troposphere, warmed at the rate of 0.13 +/- 0.05 K/decade during 1980 to 1999. The global warming deduced from conventional meteorological data that have been corrected for urbanization effects agrees reasonably with this satellite-deduced result.

Description: Many chlorinated and brominated compounds that are inert in the troposphere are destroyed in the stratosphere and act as an in-situ source of stratospheric reactive chlorine and bromine. Other halogenated compounds that are reactive in the troposphere might contribute to the stratosphere's halogen budget in two ways. First, like their unreactive companions, rapid convective transport might carry them to the upper troposphere and make them available for subsequent advection by the mean circulation into the stratosphere before they are oxidized or photolyzed. Second, it is more likely that they are destroyed in the troposphere, and the chlorine and bromine that is released might then be transported to the stratosphere. We evaluate the relative influence of these processes on stratospheric bromine in a three-dimensional chemistry and transport model which simulates the distribution of bromoform (CHBr3). CHBr3 is parameterized as a short-lived, ocean-surface source gas whose destruction by photolysis and reaction with hydroxyl (OH) in the troposphere and stratosphere yields inorganic bromine (Br(sub y)). Many of the observed features of CHBr3 are simulated well, and comparisons with observations are used to show that the model represents aspects of transport in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere that are critical to the evaluation. In particular, the model maintains the observed troposphere-stratosphere distinctness in transport pathways and reproduces the observed seasonal dependence of the mixture of air in the middle- and high-latitude lowermost stratosphere. We estimate that adding CHBr3 to models which already include the long-lived organic brominated compounds (halons and methyl bromide) will increase the simulated stratospheric mass of Br(sub y) by about 15 percent. In-situ stratospheric destruction of CHBr3 produces Br(sub y) in amounts which are comparable to that transported into the stratosphere after photolysis and oxidation of CHBr3 in the troposphere. In our simulations the mass of Br(sub y) produced from the destruction of CHBr3 does not exceed the mass of Br(sub y) produced from the destruction of the long-lived compounds at any level in the stratosphere. However, Br(sub y) from the loss of CHBr3 accounts for approximately one-third of the total Br(sub y) in the lowest kilometer of the stratosphere.

Description: In this study, the influences of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of the East Asian winter climate are examined with a focus on the relative climate impacts of the two phenomena. Although the variations of the East Asian winter monsoon and the temperature and precipitation of China, Japan, and Korea are emphasized, the associated changes in the broad-scale atmospheric circulation patterns over Asia and the Pacific and in the extratropical North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) are also investigated. It is demonstrated that there is no apparent relationship between ENSO and the interannual variability of EAJS core. The EAJS and ENSO are associated with distinctly different patterns of atmospheric circulation and SST in the Asian-Pacific regions. While ENSO causes major climate signals in the Tropics and over the North Pacific east of the dateline, the EAJS produces significant changes in the atmospheric circulation over East Asia and western Pacific. In particular, the EAJS explains larger variance of the interannual signals of the East Asian trough, the Asian continental high, the Aleutian low, and the East Asian winter monsoon. When the EAJS is strong, all these atmospheric systems intensify significantly. The response of surface temperature and precipitation to EAJS variability and ENSO is more complex. In general, the East Asian winter climate is cold (warm) and dry (wet) when the EAJS is strong (weak) and it is warm during El Nino years. However, different climate signals are found during different La Nina years. In terms of linear correlation, both the temperature and precipitation of northern China, Korea, and central Japan are more significantly associated with the EAJS than with ENSO.

Description: A new technique denoted cloud slicing has been developed for estimating tropospheric ozone profile information. All previous methods using satellite data were only capable of estimating the total column of ozone in the troposphere. Cloud slicing takes advantage of the opaque property of water vapor clouds to ultraviolet wavelength radiation. Measurements of above-cloud column ozone from the Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) instrument are combined together with Nimbus 7 temperature humidity and infrared radiometer (THIR) cloud-top pressure data to derive ozone column amounts in the upper troposphere. In this study tropical TOMS and THIR data for the period 1979-1984 are analyzed. By combining total tropospheric column ozone (denoted TCO) measurements from the convective cloud differential (CCD) method with 100-400 hPa upper tropospheric column ozone amounts from cloud slicing, it is possible to estimate 400-1000 hPa lower tropospheric column ozone and evaluate its spatial and temporal variability. Results for both the upper and lower tropical troposphere show a year-round zonal wavenumber 1 pattern in column ozone with largest amounts in the Atlantic region (up to approx. 15 DU in the 100-400 hPa pressure band and approx. 25-30 DU in the 400-1000 hPa pressure band). Upper tropospheric ozone derived from cloud slicing shows maximum column amounts in the Atlantic region in the June-August and September-November seasons which is similar to the seasonal variability of CCD derived TCO in the region. For the lower troposphere, largest column amounts occur in the September-November season over Brazil in South America and also southern Africa. Localized increases in the tropics in lower tropospheric ozone are found over the northern region of South America around August and off the west coast of equatorial Africa in the March-May season. Time series analysis for several regions in South America and Africa show an anomalous increase in ozone in the lower troposphere around the month of March which is not observed in the upper troposphere. The eastern Pacific indicates weak seasonal variability of upper, lower, and total tropospheric ozone compared to the western Pacific which shows largest TCO amounts in both hemispheres around spring months. Ozone variability in the western Pacific is expected to have greater variability caused by strong convection, pollution and biomass burning, land/sea contrast and monsoon developments.

Description: Simple nonlinear climate models yield a precession index-like term in the temperature. Despite its importance in the geologic record, the precession index e sin omega, where e is the Earth's orbital eccentricity and omega is the Sun's perigee in the geocentric frame, is not present in the insolation at the top of the atmosphere. Hence there is no one-for-one mapping of 23,000 and 19,000 year periodicities from the insolation to the paleoclimate record; a nonlinear climate model is needed to produce these periods. Two such models, a grey body and an energy balance climate model with an added quadratic term, produce e sin omega terms in temperature. These terms, which without feedback mechanisms achieve extreme values of about plus or minus 0.48 K for the grey body and plus or minus 0.64 K for the energy balance model, simultaneously cool one hemisphere while they warm the other. Moreover, they produce long-term cooling in the northern hemisphere when the Sun's perigee is near northern solstice and long-term warming in the northern hemisphere when the perigee is near southern solstice. Thus this seemingly paradoxical mechanism works against the standard model which requires cool northern summers (Sun far from Earth in northern summer) to build up northern ice sheets, so that if the standard model is correct it may be more efficient than previously thought. Alternatively, the new mechanism could possibly be dominant and indicate southern hemisphere control of the northern ice sheets, wherein the southern oceans undergo a long-term cooling when the Sun is close to the Earth during southern summer. The cold water eventually flows north, cooling the northern hemisphere. This might explain why the northern oceans lag the southern ones when it comes to orbital forcing.

Description: A suboptimal Kalman filter system which evolves error covariances in terms of a truncated set of wavelet coefficients has been developed for the assimilation of chemical tracer observations of CH4. The truncation is carried out in such a way that the resolution of the error covariance, is reduced only in the zonal direction, where gradients are smaller. Assimilation experiments which last 24 days, and used different degrees of truncation were carried out. These reduced the covariance, by 90, 97 and 99 % and the computational cost of covariance propagation by 80, 93 and 96 % respectively. The difference in both error covariance and the tracer field between the truncated and full systems over this period were found to be not growing in the first case, and a growing relatively slowly in the later two cases. The largest errors in the tracer fields were found to occur in regions of largest zonal gradients in the tracer field.

Description: This study examines the predictability of seasonal means during boreal summer. The results are based on ensembles of June-July-August (JJA) simulations (started in mid May) carried out with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP-1) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTS) and sea ice for the years 1980-1999. We find that the predictability of the JJA extra-tropical height field is primarily in the zonal mean component of the response to the SST anomalies. This contrasts with the cold season (January-February-March) when the predictability of seasonal means in the boreal extratropics is primarily in the wave component of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) response. Two patterns dominate the interannual variability of the ensemble mean JJA zonal mean height field. One has maximum variance in the tropical/subtropical upper troposphere, while the other has substantial variance in middle latitudes of both hemispheres. Both are symmetric with respect to the equator. A regression analysis suggests that the tropical/subtropical pattern is associated with SST anomalies in the far eastern tropical Pacific and the Indian Ocean, while the middle latitude pattern is forced by SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific just east of the dateline. The two leading zonal height patterns are reproduced in model runs forced with the two leading JJA SST patterns of variability. A comparison with observations shows a signature of the middle latitude pattern that is consistent with the occurrence of dry and wet summers over the United States. We hypothesize that both patterns, while imposing only weak constraints on extratropical warm season continental-scale climates, may play a role in the predilection for drought or pluvial conditions.

Description: Estimates of balance mass flux and the depth-averaged ice velocity through the cross-section aligned with the equilibrium line are produced for each of six drainage systems in Greenland. (The equilibrium line, which lies at approximately 1200 m elevation on the ice sheet, is the boundary between the area of net snow accumulation at higher elevations and the areas of net melting at lower elevations around the ice sheet.) Ice drainage divides and six major drainage systems are delineated using surface topography from ERS (European Remote Sensing) radar altimeter data. The net accumulation rate in the accumulation zone bounded by the equilibrium line is 399 Gt/yr and net ablation rate in the remaining area is 231 Gt/yr. (1 GigaTon of ice is 1090 kM(exp 3). The mean balance mass flux and depth-averaged ice velocity at the cross-section aligned with the modeled equilibrium line are 0.1011 Gt kM(exp -2)/yr and 0.111 km/yr, respectively, with little variation in these values from system to system. The ratio of the ice mass above the equilibrium line to the rate of mass output implies an effective exchange time of approximately 6000 years for total mass exchange. The range of exchange times, from a low of 3 ka in the SE drainage system to 14 ka in the NE, suggests a rank as to which regions of the ice sheet may respond more rapidly to climate fluctuations.

Description: During the winter of 1999-2000, the Sage III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE) field experiment took place in Kiruna, Sweden. The purpose of SOLVE was to examine ozone depletion mechanisms in the Arctic stratosphere (from about 10 to 50 km altitude) during the winter and early spring, when a band of strong winds (the 'polar vortex') circle the pole. Measurements of stratospheric ozone were made by several different kinds of instruments in different meteorological situations. We analyzed these data using the 'quasi-conservative coordinate mapping' technique, in which the measurements are analyzed in terms of meteorological properties ('potential temperature' and 'potential vorticity') which tend not to change very much over a few days. This technique reduces or removes the changes that are associated with the polar vortex moving around. Over longer time periods, potential temperature and potential vorticity change as air cools and descends within the polar vortex. We account for these changes by calculating the trajectories of air parcels, and this enables us to extend the analysis over a ten-week period from January 10 to March 17, 2000. Using data from the NASA ER-2 aircraft, from the DIAL and AROTEL laser sounders on the NASA DC-8 aircraft, and balloon-borne ozonesondes, our analysis reveals changes in ozone which, because we have removed the effects of polar vortex motion and the descending air, indicate chemical destruction of ozone in early 2000. We find a peak decline rate of approximately 0.03 ppmv/day near 470 K of potential temperature (near 20 km) in mid-January which sinks in altitude to around 440 K (near 18 km) in mid-March.

Description: Atmospheric aerosols have a complex internal chemical composition and optical properties. Therefore it is difficult to model their impact on redistribution and absorption of solar radiation, and the consequent impact on atmospheric dynamics and climate. The use in climate models of isolated aerosol parameters retrieved from satellite data (e.g. optical thickness) may result in inconsistent calculations, if the model assumptions differ from these of the satellite retrieval schemes. Here we suggest a strategy to assess the direct impact of aerosol on the radiation budget at the top and bottom of the atmosphere using satellite and ground based measurements of the spectral solar radiation scattered by the aerosol. This method ensures consistent use of the satellite data and increases its accuracy. For Kaufman and Tanre: Strategy for aerosol direct forcing anthropogenic aerosol in the fine mode (e.g. biomass burning smoke and urban pollution) consistent use of satellite derived optical thickness can yield the aerosol impact on the spectral solar flux with accuracy an order of magnitude better than the optical thickness itself. For example, a simulated monthly average smoke optical thickness of 0.5 at 0.55 microns (forcing of 40-50 W/sq m) derived with an error of 20%, while the forcing can be measured directly with an error of only 0-2 W/sq m. Another example, the effect of large dust particles on reflection of solar flux can be derived three times better than retrievals of optical thickness. Since aerosol impacts not only the top of the atmosphere but also the surface irradiation, a combination of satellite and ground based measurements of the spectral flux, can be the most direct mechanism to evaluate the aerosol effect on climate and assimilate it in climate models. The strategy is applied to measurements from SCAR-B and the Tarfox experiments. In SCAR-B aircraft spectral data are used to derive the 24 hour radiative forcing of smoke at the top of the atmosphere of (Delta)F(sub 24hr)/(Delta)tau = - 25 +/- 5 W/sq m. Ground based data give forcing at the surface of (Delta)F(sub 24hr)/(Delta)taur = -80 +/- 5 W/sq m. In TARFOX a mixture of maritime and regional pollution aerosol resulted in a varied forcing at the top of the atmosphere, (Delta)F(sub 24hr)/(Delta)tau, between -26 W/sq 2 and -50 W/sq m depending on mixture of coarse and accumulation modes, for Angstrom exponents of 1.0 and 0.2 respectively.

Description: A comparison of above- and in-water spectral measurements in Case-1 conditions showed the uncertainty in above-water determinations of water-leaving radiances depended on the pointing angle of the above-water instruments with respect to the side of the ship. Two above-water methods were used to create a diagnostic variable to quantify the presence of superstructure reflections which degraded the above-water intracomparisons of water-leaving radiances by 10.9-33.4% (for far-to-near viewing distances, respectively). The primary conclusions of the above- and in-water intercomparison of water-leaving radiances were as follows: a) the SeaWiFS 5% radiometric objective was achieved with the above-water approach, but reliably with only one method and only for about half the data; b) a decrease in water-leaving radiance values was seen in the presence of swell, although, wave crests were radiometrically brighter than the troughs; and c) standard band ratios used in ocean color algorithms remained severely affected, because of the relatively low signal and, thus, proportionally significant contamination at the 555nm wavelength.

Description: We have used the GSFC coupled two-dimensional (2D) model to study the impact of increasing carbon dioxide from 1980 to 2050 on the recovery of ozone to its pre-1980 amounts. We find that the changes in temperature and circulation arising from increasing CO2 affect ozone recovery in a manner which varies greatly with latitude, altitude, and time of year. Middle and upper stratospheric ozone recovers faster at all latitudes due to a slowing of the ozone catalytic loss cycles. In the lower stratosphere, the recovery of tropical ozone is delayed due to a decrease in production and a speed up in the overturning circulation. The recovery of high northern latitude lower stratospheric ozone is delayed in spring and summer due to an increase in springtime heterogeneous chemical loss, and is speeded up in fall and winter due to increased downwelling. The net effect on the higher northern latitude column ozone is to slow down the recovery from late March to late July, while making it faster at other times. In the high southern latitudes, the impact of CO2 cooling is negligible. Annual mean column ozone is predicted to recover faster at all latitudes, and globally averaged ozone is predicted to recover approximately ten years faster as a result of increasing CO2.

Description: The anomalies in the climate and sea ice cover of the Southern Ocean and their relationships with the Southern Oscillation (SO) are investigated using a 17-year of data set from 1982 through 1998. We correlate the polar climate anomalies with the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and examine the composites of these anomalies under the positive (SOI 〉 0), neutral (0 〉 SOI 〉 -1), and negative (SOI 〈 -1) phases of SOL The climate data set consists of sea-level pressure, wind, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature fields, while the sea ice data set describes its extent, concentration, motion, and surface temperature. The analysis depicts, for the first time, the spatial variability in the relationship of the above variables and the SOL The strongest correlation between the SOI and the polar climate anomalies are found in the Bellingshausen, Amundsen and Ross sea sectors. The composite fields reveal anomalies that are organized in distinct large-scale spatial patterns with opposing polarities at the two extremes of SOI, and suggest oscillating climate anomalies that are closely linked to the SO. Within these sectors, positive (negative) phases of the SOI are generally associated with lower (higher) sea-level pressure, cooler (warmer) surface air temperature, and cooler (warmer) sea surface temperature in these sectors. Associations between these climate anomalies and the behavior of the Antarctic sea ice cover are clearly evident. Recent anomalies in the sea ice cover that are apparently associated with the SOI include: the record decrease in the sea ice extent in the Bellingshausen Sea from mid- 1988 through early 199 1; the relationship between Ross Sea SST and ENSO signal, and reduced sea ice concentration in the Ross Sea; and, the shortening of the ice season in the eastern Ross Sea, Amundsen Sea, far western Weddell Sea, and the lengthening of the ice season in the western Ross Sea, Bellingshausen Sea and central Weddell Sea gyre over the period 1988-1994. Four ENSO episodes over the last 17 years contributed to a negative mean in the SOI (-0.5). In each of these episodes, significant retreats in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Sea were observed providing direct confirmation of the impact of SO on the Antarctic sea ice cover.

Description: Ozone observations from ozonesondes, the lidars aboard the DC-8, in situ ozone measurements from the ER-2, and satellite ozone measurements from Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement III (POAM) were used to assess ozone loss during the Sage III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE) 1999-2000 Arctic campaign. Two methods of analysis were used. In the first method a simple regression analysis is performed on the ozonesonde and POAM measurements within the vortex. In the second method, the ozone measurements from all available ozone data were injected into a free running diabatic trajectory model and carried forward in time from December 1 to March 15. Vortex ozone loss was then estimated by comparing the ozone values of those parcels initiated early in the campaign with those parcels injected later in the campaign. Despite the variety of observational techniques used during SOLVE, the measurements provide a fairly consistent picture. Over the whole vortex, the largest ozone loss occurs between 550 and 400 K potential temperatures (approximately 23-16 km) with over 1.5 ppmv lost by March 15, the end of the SOLVE mission period. An ozone loss rate of 0.04-0.05 ppmv/day was computed for March 15. Ozonesondes launched after March 15 suggest that an additional 0.5 ppmv or more ozone was lost between March 15 and April 1. The small disagreement between ozonesonde and POAM analysis of January ozone loss is found to be due to biases in vortex sampling. POAM makes most of its solar occultation measurements at the vortex edge during January 2000 which bias samples toward air parcels that have been exposed to sunlight and likely do experience ozone loss. Ozonesonde measurements and the trajectory technique use observations that are more distributed within the interior of the vortex. Thus the regression analysis of the POAM measurements tends to overestimate mid-winter vortex ozone loss. Finally, our loss calculations are broadly consistent with other loss computations using ER-2 tracer data and MLS satellite data, but we find no evidence for the 1992 high mid-January loss reported using the Match technique.

Description: In this paper, we present results showing that summertime precipitation anomalies over North America and East Asia may be linked via pan-Pacific teleconnection patterns, which are components of two dominant recurring global climate modes. The first mode (Mode-1) features an inverse relationship between rainfall anomaly over the US Midwest/central to the eastern/southeastern regions, coupled to a mid-tropospheric high-low pressure system over the northwest and southeast of the US, which regulates low level moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico to the Midwest. The regional circulation pattern appears to be a part of a global climate mode spanning Eurasia, the North Pacific, North America, and the Atlantic. This mode is associated with coherent fluctuations of jetstream variability over East Asia, and Eurasia, SST in the North Pacific and the North Atlantic. While Mode-1 is moderately correlated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), it appears to be distinct from it, with strong influences from mid-latitude or possibly from higher latitude processes. Results show that Mode-1 not only has an outstanding contribution to the great flood of 1993, it has large contribution to the US precipitation anomalies in other years. Also noted is an apparent increase in influence of Mode-1 on US summertime precipitation in the last two decades since 1977.

Description: A high-altitude aircraft flight on April 18, 1997 detected an enormous aerosol cloud at 20 km altitude near California (37 N). Not visually observed, the cloud had high concentrations of soot and sulfate aerosol, and was over 180 km in horizontal extent. The cloud was probably a large hydrocarbon fueled vehicle, most likely from rocket motors burning liquid oxygen and kerosene. One of two Russian Soyuz rockets could have produced the cloud: a launch from the Baikonur Cosmodrome, Kazakhstan on April 6; or from Plesetsk, Russia on April 9. Parcel trajectories and long-lived trace gas concentrations suggest the Baikonur launch as the cloud source. Cloud trajectories do not trace the Soyuz plume from Asia to North America, illustrating the uncertainties of point-to-point trajectories. This cloud encounter is the only stratospheric measurement of a hydrocarbon fuel powered rocket.

Description: The Terra mission, launched at the dawn of 1999, and Aqua mission to be launched soon, will possess innovative measurements of the aerosol daily spatial distribution, distinguish between dust, smoke and regional pollution and measure aerosol radiative forcing of climate. Their polar orbit gives daily global coverage, however measurements are acquired at specific time of the day. To what degree can present measurements from Terra taken between 10:00 and 11:30 AM local time, represent the daily average aerosol forcing of climate? Here we answer this question using 7 years of data from the distributed ground based 50-70 instrument Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) This (AERONET) half a million measurement data set shows that Terra aerosol measurements represent the daily average values within 5%. The excellent representation is found for large dust particles or small aerosol particles from Fires or regional pollution and for any range of the optical thickness, a measure of the amount of aerosol in the atmosphere.

Description: The Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model (GISS GCM) is used to examine the sensitivity of the simulated climate to sea ice concentration specifications in the type of simulation done in the Atmospheric Modeling Intercomparison Project (AMIP), with specified oceanic boundary conditions. Results show that sea ice concentration uncertainties of +/- 7% can affect simulated regional temperatures by more than 6 C, and biases in sea ice concentrations of +7% and -7% alter simulated annually averaged global surface air temperatures by -0.10 C and +0.17 C, respectively, over those in the control simulation. The resulting 0.27 C difference in simulated annual global surface air temperatures is reduced by a third, to 0.18 C, when considering instead biases of +4% and -4%. More broadly, least-squares fits through the temperature results of 17 simulations with ice concentration input changes ranging from increases of 50% versus the control simulation to decreases of 50% yield a yearly average global impact of 0.0107 C warming for every 1% ice concentration decrease, i.e., 1.07 C warming for the full +50% to -50% range. Regionally and on a monthly average basis, the differences can be far greater, especially in the polar regions, where wintertime contrasts between the +50% and -50% cases can exceed 30 C. However, few statistically significant effects are found outside the polar latitudes, and temperature effects over the non-polar oceans tend to be under 1 C, due in part to the specification of an unvarying annual cycle of sea surface temperatures. The +/- 7% and 14% results provide bounds on the impact (on GISS GCM simulations making use of satellite data) of satellite-derived ice concentration inaccuracies, +/- 7% being the current estimated average accuracy of satellite retrievals and +/- 4% being the anticipated improved average accuracy for upcoming satellite instruments. Results show that the impact on simulated temperatures of imposed ice concentration changes is least in summer, encouragingly the same season in which the satellite accuracies are thought to be worst. Hence the impact of satellite inaccuracies is probably less than the use of an annually averaged satellite inaccuracy would suggest.

Description: Using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis, and CPC Merged Analysis Product (CMAP) rainfall, we have compared and contrasted the anomalies of the South American Summer Monsoon (SASM) during two extreme years of 1997/98 (EI Nino) and 1998/99 (La Nina). The results are assessed against a "canonical" ENSO response (CER) pattern for the SASM obtained from empirical mode decomposition based on a previous period (1980-1995). Overall, the SASM anomalies compare well with CER, but with some important differences. Anomalies occurring in the warm phase of the 1997-98 El Nino are very significant and robust, while those occurring in 1998/99 La Nina, appear to be reversed from 1997/98, but are relatively weak and less well-defined. The most pronounced signal in DJF 1997/98 is the development of drought conditions in northern Brazil, excessive rainfall over northern Peru and Ecuador, and over Uruguay and southern Brazil. The tropical rainfall anomalies are associated with the eastward shift of the Walker circulation, which is represented by pronounced low-level anomalous westerlies over the equatorial eastern Pacific and easterlies over northern Brazil. The easterlies are deflected sharply southeastward by the steep topography of the Andes, enhancing the low-level jet (LLJ) along the eastern foothills of the Andes near 15-20 S. The LLJ penetrates deep into the extratropics, yielding rainfall anomalies further poleward compared to CER. During DJF 1997/98, the eastward expansion of the warm tropospheric temperature over the Nino-3 region causes anomalous geopotential height to develop in the upper troposphere above the Altiplano, leading to a strengthened Bolivian High. An upper-tropospheric jet anomaly maximum is found over the subtropical continent near 30 S, due to increasing meridional gradient of tropospheric temperature, as well as teleconnection patterns linking the South Pacific and the South Atlantic. Consistent with the CER, the South Pacific High is weakened, and the South Atlantic High is strengthened in DJF 1997/98. However, rather than appearing as a coherent large scale signal over the entire Atlantic as in CER, the South Atlantic High anomalies in DJF 1997/98 split into two separate high pressure centers; one located south of the Amazon basin, and another over the southeastern South Atlantic. The former is induced as a Rossby-wave response by ENSO-Induced sinking motion over nor-them and eastern Brazil, and the latter may be associated with extratropical teleconnection signals. Anomalous convection observed over equatorial western Africa may also have contributed to the different circulation response over the Atlantic in DFJ 1997/99 compared to the CER. Comparison of the evolution of the SASM anomalies in 1997-99 with their corresponding annual cycles, suggest that the anomalies are phase-locked to and represent either enhancement or reduction of the annual variations. Results suggest that, from a system perspective the SASM was strengthened during the 1997/98 El Nino and weakened, albeit to a lesser extent, during the 1998/99 La Nina.

Description: Satellite Measurements of the global distribution of aerosol and their effect on climate should be viewed in respect to a baseline aerosol. In this concept, concentration of fine mode aerosol particles is elevated above the baseline by man-made activities (smoke or urban pollution), while coarse mode by natural processes (e.g. dust or sea-spray). Using 1-3 years of measurements in 10 stations of the Aerosol Robotic network (ACRONET we develop a methodology and derive the optical thickness and properties of this baseline aerosol for the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Defined as the median for periods of stable optical thickness (standard deviation 〈 0.02) during 2-6 days, the median baseline aerosol optical thickness over the Pacific Ocean is 0.052 at 500 am with Angstrom exponent of 0.77, and 0.071 and 1.1 respectively, over the Atlantic Ocean.

Description: Responses of tropical atmosphere to low-boundary forcing are investigated in a 2-D cumulus ensemble model (CEM) with an imposed warm-pool and cold-pool SST contrast (deltaSST). The domain-mean vertical motion is constrained to produce heat sink and moisture source as in the observed tropical climate. In a series of experiments, the warm pool SST is specified at different values while the cold pool SST is specified at 26 C. The strength of the circulation increases with increasing deltaSST until deltaSST reaches 3.5 C, and remains unchanged as deltaSST exceeds 3.5 C. The regulation of tropical convection by zonal SST gradient is constrained by the radiative cooling over the cold pool. For deltaSST less than 3.5 C, an enhanced subsidence warming is balanced by a reduced condensation heating over the cold pool. For deltaSST greater than 3.5 C, the subsidence regime expands over the entire cold pool where no condensation heating exist so that a further enhanced subsidence warming can no longer be sustained. The above regulation mechanism is also evident in the change of energy at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) that is dominated by cloud and water vapor greenhouse effect (c (sub LW)) and G (sub clear). The change in shortwave radiation at TOA is largely cancelled between the warm pool and cold pool, likely due to the same imposed vertical motion in our experiments. For deltaSST less than 3.5 C, an increase of deltaSST is associated with a large increase in c (sub Lw) due to increased total clouds in response to enhanced SST-induced circulation. For deltaSST greater than 3.5 C, clouds over the warm pool decrease with increasing SST, and the change in c (sub LW) is much smaller. In both dSST regimes, the change in CLW is larger than the change in G(sub clear) which is slightly negative. However, in the case of uniform warming (deltaSST=0), DeltaG(sub clear), is positive, approximately 5 W per square meters per degree change of SST.

Description: Simultaneous tropospheric ozone and aerosols observed using the TOMS satellite instrument are reported for Madagascar during the 1979 through 1999 time period Ozone observations made using the TOMS tropospheric ozone convective-cloud differential method show that the tropospheric ozone amount associated with Madagascar has an average monthly value of 30 DU (Dobson units). The average value is enhanced by 10 to 15 DU in October This maximum coincides with the time of maximum biomass area burning in Madagascar and parts of southern Africa. The aerosol index derived from TOMS is examined for correlation with biomass burning in Madagascar and southern Africa. There is good correlation between a satellite observation derived fire index for different parts of Madagascar, tropospheric ozone and the TOMS aerosol index in the same geographical area. Aerosols from fires were found to reach their peak in November and to persist over Madagascar until sometime in December.

Description: A recent analysis found a negative correlation between the area-mean cloud amount and the corresponding mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST) within the cloudy areas. The SST-cloud relation becomes more evident when the SST contrast between warm pool and surrounding cold pool (DSST) in the tropical Pacific is stronger than normal. The above feature is related to the finding that the strength of subsidence over the cold pool is limited by radiative cooling because of its small variability. As a result, the area of radiatively-driven subsidence must expand in response to enhanced low-boundary forcing due to SST warming or enhanced basin-scale DSST. This leads to more cloud free regions and less cloudy regions. The increased ratio of cloud-free areas to cloudy areas leads to more high SST areas (〉29.50C) due to enhanced solar radiation.

Description: Refinements to the snow-physics scheme of SSiB (Simplified Simple Biosphere Model) are described and evaluated. The upgrades include a partial redesign of the conceptual architecture to better simulate the diurnal temperature of the snow surface. For a deep snowpack, there are two separate prognostic temperature snow layers - the top layer responds to diurnal fluctuations in the surface forcing, while the deep layer exhibits a slowly varying response. In addition, the use of a very deep soil temperature and a treatment of snow aging with its influence on snow density is parameterized and evaluated. The upgraded snow scheme produces better timing of snow melt in GSWP-style simulations using ISLSCP Initiative I data for 1987-1988 in the Russian Wheat Belt region. To simulate more realistic runoff in regions with high orographic variability, additional improvements are made to SSiB's soil hydrology. These improvements include an orography-based surface runoff scheme as well as interaction with a water table below SSiB's three soil layers. The addition of these parameterizations further help to simulate more realistic runoff and accompanying prognostic soil moisture fields in the GSWP-style simulations. In intercomparisons of the performance of the new snow-physics SSiB with its earlier versions using an 18-year single-site dataset from Valdai Russia, the version of SSiB described in this paper again produces the earliest onset of snow melt. Soil moisture and deep soil temperatures also compare favorably with observations.

Description: Downward solar fluxes measured at Dungsha coral island (20 deg. 42 min. N, 116 deg. 43 min. E) during the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (May-June 1998) have been calibrated and compared with radiative transfer calculations for three clear-sky days. Model calculations use water vapor and temperature profiles from radiosound measurements and the aerosol optical thickness derived from sunphotometric radiance measurements at the surface. Results show that the difference between observed and model-calculated downward fluxes is less than 3% of the daily mean. Averaged over the three clear days, the difference reduces to 1%. The downward surface solar flux averaged over the three days is 314 W per square meters from observations and 317 W per square meters from model calculations, This result is consistent with a previous study using TOGA CAORE measurements, which found good agreements between observations and model calculations. This study provides an extra piece of useful information on the modeling of radiative transfer, which fills in the puzzle of the absorption of solar radiation in the atmosphere.

Description: The sea-surface shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes have been retrieved from the radiances measured by Japan's Geostationary Meteorological Satellite 5. The surface radiation data set covers the domain 40S-40N and 90E-170W. The temporal resolution is 1 day, and the spatial resolution is 0.5 deg x 0.5 deg latitude-longitude. The retrieved surface radiation have been validated with the radiometric measurements at the Atmospheric Radiation Measuring (ARM) site on Manus island in the equatorial western Pacific for a period of 15 months. It has also been validated with the measurements at the radiation site on Dungsha island in the South China Sea during the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) Intensive Observing Period (May and June 1998). The data set is used to study the effect of El Nino and East Asian Summer monsoon on the heating of the ocean in the tropical western Pacific and the South China Sea. Interannual variations of clouds associated with El Nino and the East Asian Summer monsoon have a large impact on the radiative heating of the ocean. It has been found that the magnitude of the interannual variation of the seasonal mean surface radiative heating exceeds 40 W/sq m over large areas. Together with the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) shortwave fluxes at top of the atmosphere and the radiative transfer calculations of clear-sky fluxes, this surface radiation data set is also used to study the impact of clouds on the solar heating of the atmosphere. It is found that clouds enhance the atmospheric solar heating by approx. 20 W/sq m in the tropical western Pacific and the South China Sea. This result is important for evaluating the accuracy of solar flux calculations in clear and cloudy atmospheres.

Description: Emissions of atmospheric species from the engines of subsonic aircraft at cruise altitude (roughly, above seven kilometers) are of concern to scientists, the aviation industry and policymakers for two reasons. First, water vapor, soot and sulfur oxides, and related heterogeneous processes, may modify clouds and aerosols enough to perturb radiative forcing in the UT/LS (upper troposphere/lower stratosphere). A discussion of these phenomena appears in Chapter 3 of the IPCC Aviation Assessment (1999). An airborne campaign conducted to evaluate aviation effects on contrail, cirrus and cloud formation, is described in Geophysical Research Letters. The second concern arises from subsonic aircraft emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO + NO2 = NO(sub x)), CO, and hydrocarbons. These species may add to the background mixture of photochemically reactive species that form ozone. In the UT/LS, ozone is a highly effective greenhouse gas. The impacts of subsonic aircraft emissions on tropospheric NO(sub x) and ozone budgets have been studied with models that focus on UT chemistry [e.g. see discussions of individual models in Brasseur et al., 1998; Friedl et al., 1997; IPCC, 1999]. Depending on the model used, projected increases in the global subsonic aircraft fleet from 1992 to 2015 will lead to a 50-100 pptv increase in UT/LS NO. at 12 km (compared to 50-150 pptv background) in northern hemisphere midlatitudes. The corresponding 12-km ozone increase is 7-11 ppbv, or 5-10% (Chapter 4 in IPCC, 1999). Two major sources of uncertainties in model estimates of aviation effects are: (1) the often limited degree to which global models - the scale required to evaluate aircraft emissions - realistically simulate atmospheric transport and other physical processes; (2) limited UT/LS observations of trace gases with which to evaluate model performance. In response to the latter deficiency, a number of airborne campaigns aimed at elucidating the effect of aircraft on atmospheric nitrogen oxides and ozone were performed between 1990 and 1996 (see descriptions in Friedl et al., 1997; Brasseur et al., 1998).

Description: The processes which contribute to the ozone evolution in the high latitude northern lower stratosphere are evaluated using a three dimensional model simulation and ozone observations. The model uses winds and temperatures from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System. The simulation results are compared with ozone observations from three platforms: the differential absorption lidar (DIAL) which was flown on the NASA DC-8 as part of the Vortex Ozone Transport Experiment; the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS); the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM II) solar occultation instrument. Time series for the different data sets are consistent with each other, and diverge from model time series during December and January. The model ozone in December and January is shown to be much less sensitive to the model photochemistry than to the model vertical transport, which depends on the model vertical motion as well as the model vertical gradient. We evaluate the dependence of model ozone evolution on the model ozone gradient by comparing simulations with different initial conditions for ozone. The modeled ozone throughout December and January most closely resembles observed ozone when the vertical profiles between 12 and 20 km within the polar vortex closely match December DIAL observations. We make a quantitative estimate of the uncertainty in the vertical advection using diabatic trajectory calculations. The net transport uncertainty is significant, and should be accounted for when comparing observations with model ozone. The observed and modeled ozone time series during December and January are consistent when these transport uncertainties are taken into account.

Description: In August and September, throughout south central Africa, seasonal clearing of dry vegetation and other fire-related activities lead to intense smoke haze and ozone formation. The first ozone soundings in the heart of the southern African burning region were taken at Lusaka, Zambia (155 deg S, 28 deg E) in early September 2000. Over 90 ppbv ozone was recorded at the surface (1.3 km elevation) and column tropospheric ozone was greater than 50 DU during a stagnant period. These values are much higher than concurrent measurements over Nairobi (1 deg S, 38 deg E) and Irene (25 deg S, 28 deg E, near Pretoria). The heaviest ozone pollution layer (800-500 hPa) over Lusaka is due to recirculated trans-boundary ozone. Starting out over Zambia, Angola, and Namibia, ozone heads east to the Indian Ocean, before turning back over Mozambique and Zimbabwe, heading toward Lusaka. Thus, Lusaka is a collection point for pollution, consistent with a picture of absolutely stable layers recirculating in a gyre over southern Africa.

Description: In our Numerical Spectral Model (NSM), which incorporates Hines' Doppler Spread Parameterization, gravity waves (GW) propagating in the east/west direction can generate the essential features of the observed equatorial oscillations in the zonal circulation and in particular the QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) extending from the stratosphere into the upper mesosphere. We report here that the NSM also produces inter-seasonal variations in the zonally symmetric (m = 0) meridional circulation. A distinct but variable meridional wind oscillation (MWO) is generated, which appears to be the counterpart to the QBO. With a vertical grid-point resolution of about 0.5 km, the NSM produces the MWO through momentum deposition of GWs propagating in the north/south direction. The resulting momentum source represents a third (generally odd) order non-linear function of the meridional winds, and this enables the oscillation, as in the case of the QBO for the zonal winds. Since the meridional winds are relatively small compared to the zonal winds, however, the vertical wavelength that maintains the MWO is much smaller, i.e., only about 10 km instead of 40 km for the QBO. Consistent with the associated increase of the viscous stress, the period of the MWO is then short compared with that of the QBO, i.e., only about two to four months. Depending on the strength of the GW forcing, the computed amplitudes of the MWO are typically 4 m/s in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, and the associated temperature amplitudes are between about 2 and 3 K. These amplitudes may be observable with the instruments on the TIMED spacecraft. Extended computer simulations with the NSM in 2D (two-dimensional) and 3D (three-dimensional) reveal that the MWO is modulated by and in turn influences the QBO.

Description: Despite the fact that the low-level jet of the southern Great Plains (the GPLLJ) of the U.S. is primarily a nocturnal phenomenon that virtually vanishes during the daylight hours, it is one of the most persistent and stable features of the low-level continental flow during the warm-season months, May through August. We have first used significant-level data to validate the skill of the GEOS-1 Data Assimilation System (DAS) in realistically detecting this jet and inferring its structure and evolution. We have then carried out a 15-year reanalysis with the GEOS-1 DAS to determine and validate its climatology and mean diurnal cycle and to study its interannual variability. Interannual variability of the GPLLJ is much smaller than mean diurnal and random intraseasonal variability and comparable in magnitude, but not location, to mean seasonal variability. There are three maxima of interannual low-level meridional flow variability of the GPLLJ over the upper Great Plains, southeastern Texas, and the western Gulf of Mexico. Cross-sectional profiles of mean southerly wind through the Texas maximum remain relatively stable and recognizable from year to year with only its eastward flank showing significant variability. This variability, however, exhibits a distinct, biennial oscillation during the first six years of the reanalysis period and only then. Each of the three variability maxima corresponds to a spatially coherent, jet-like pattern of low-level flow interannual variability. There are three prominent modes of interannual. variability. These include the intermittent biennial oscillation (IBO), local to the Texas maximum. Its signal is evident in surface pressure, surface temperature, ground wetness and upper air flow, as well. A larger-scale continental convergence pattern (CCP) of covariance, exhibiting strong anti-correlation between the flow near the Texas and the upper Great Plains variability maxima, is revealed only when the IBO is removed from the interannual time series. A third, subtropical mode of covariance is associated with the Gulf of Mexico variability maximum. Significant interannual anti-correlations of the southeasterly flow over the Arizona/New Mexico region with the CCP and the subtropical mode are enhanced when restricted to the month of July. These anti-correlations may relate to an observed out-of-phase precipitation relationship between the Great Plains and the southwestern U.S.. The typical duration of interannual low-level meridional wind anomalies within a given season increases over the continent with decreasing latitude from two to three weeks over the upper Great Plains to six to seven weeks over eastern Texas.

Description: The new stretched-grid design with multiple (four) areas of interest, one at each global quadrant, is implemented into both a stretched-grid GCM (general circulation model) and a stretched-grid data assimilation system (DAS). The four areas of interest include: the U.S./Northern Mexico, the El Nino area/Central South America, India/China, and the Eastern Indian Ocean/Australia. Both the stretched-grid GCM and DAS annual (November 1997 through December 1998) integrations are performed with 50 km regional resolution. The efficient regional down-scaling to mesoscales is obtained for each of the four areas of interest while the consistent interactions between regional and global scales and the high quality of global circulation, are preserved. This is the advantage of the stretched-grid approach. The global variable resolution DAS incorporating the stretched-grid GCM has been developed and tested as an efficient tool for producing regional analyses and diagnostics with enhanced mesoscale resolution. The anomalous regional climate events of 1998 that occurred over the U.S., Mexico, South America, China, India, African Sahel, and Australia are investigated in both simulation and data assimilation modes. Tree assimilated products are also used, along with gauge precipitation data, for validating the simulation results. The obtained results show that the stretched-grid GCM and DAS are capable of producing realistic high quality simulated and assimilated products at mesoscale resolution for regional climate studies and applications.

Description: Numerous studies suggest that local feedback of evaporation on precipitation, or recycling, is a significant source of water for precipitation. Quantitative results on the exact amount of recycling have been difficult to obtain in view of the inherent limitations of diagnostic recycling calculations. The current study describes a calculation of the amount of local and remote sources of water for precipitation, based on the implementation of passive constituent tracers of water vapor (termed water vapor tracers, WVT) in a general circulation model. In this case, the major limitation on the accuracy of the recycling estimates is the veracity of the numerically simulated hydrological cycle, though we note that this approach can also be implemented within the context of a data assimilation system. In this approach, each WVT is associated with an evaporative source region, and tracks the water until it precipitates from the atmosphere. By assuming that the regional water is well mixed with water from other sources, the physical processes that act on the WVT are determined in proportion to those that act on the model's prognostic water vapor. In this way, the local and remote sources of water for precipitation can be computed within the model simulation, and can be validated against the model's prognostic water vapor. Furthermore, estimates of precipitation recycling can be compared with bulk diagnostic approaches. As a demonstration of the method, the regional hydrologic cycles for North America and India are evaluated for six summers (June, July and August) of model simulation. More than 50% of the precipitation in the Midwestern United States came from continental regional tracers, and the local source was the largest of the regional tracers (14%). The Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic 2 regions contributed 18% of the water for Midwestern precipitation, but further analysis suggests that the greater region of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean may also contribute significantly. In general, most North American land regions showed a positive correlation between evaporation and recycling ratio (except the Southeast United States) and negative correlations of recycling ratio with precipitation and moisture transport (except the Southwestern United States). The Midwestern local source is positively correlated with local evaporation, but it is not correlated with water vapor transport. This is contrary to bulk diagnostic estimates of precipitation recycling. In India, the local source of precipitation is a small percentage of the precipitation owing to the dominance of the atmospheric transport of oceanic water. The southern Indian Ocean provides a key source of water for both the Indian continent and the Sahelian region.

Description: Haze and air pollution includes many chemicals that together form small particles suspended in the air called aerosols. One of the main ingredients found to affect climate and human health is Black Carbon. Black particles emitted from engines that do not burn the fuel completely, e.g. old trucks. Black carbon absorption of sunlight emerges as one of the key components of man-made forcing of climate. However, global characterization of black carbon emissions, distribution and pathways in which it can affect the amount of solar radiation absorbed by the atmosphere is very uncertain. A new method is proposed to measure sunlight absorption by fine aerosol particles containing black carbon over the ocean glint from a satellite mission designed for this purpose. The satellite will scan the same spot over the ocean in the glint plane and a plane 40 degrees off-glint a minute apart, collecting measurements of the reflected light across the solar spectrum. First the dark ocean off the glint is used to derive aerosol properties. Then the black carbon absorption is derived prop the attenuation of the bright glint by the aerosol layer. Such measurements if realized in a proposed future mission - COBRA are expected to produce global monthly climatology of black carbon absorption with high accuracy (110 to 15%) that can show their effect on climate.

Description: Recent studies suggest that airborne Asian dust may not only play an important role in the regional radiation budget, but also influence the air quality over North America through long-range transport. In this paper, we use satellite data to investigate the long-term variability of airborne Asian dust as well as the daily variation of the dust aerosol distribution. By combining the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol index with National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) wind data, our analysis shows a strong correlation between the generation of dust storms in the region and the passage of springtime weather fronts. This is consistent with earlier studies performed by other researchers. According to both the Nimbus-7 and Earth-Probe TOMS data the Takla Makan desert, the Gobi desert, and the and region of Inner Mongolia are major sources of the eastward-flowing airborne Asian dust. Heavily populated areas in eastern China (e.g., Beijing) are often on the primary path of the dust storms originating in these desert regions. The increasing desertification north of the Beijing region has served to exacerbate problems stemming from these storms. The time series derived from 20 years of TOMS aerosol index data shows the first significant satellite evidence of the atmospheric effect of increasing desertification, indicating that the amount of dust blown eastward has increased strongly during the past few years including the year 2000.

Description: A chemical transport model is used to investigate the processes that control the depth and duration of the ozone 'hole' in the lower stratosphere through comparisons of model output with measurements from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), both on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS). This study extends previous model comparisons with observations into October and November and examine levels in (greater than 31 hPa) and above (less than 31 hPa) the chemical loss region. Averages of column ozone in the model decrease through mid-October below 31 hPa but begin to increase in mid-September above 31 hPa. An investigation of model-tracer data comparisons and other meteorological parameters indicate that the model presents a consistent picture of top-down recovery and tracer transport. An O03budget study at 500 K (below 31 hPa) and 840 K (above 31 hPa) is carried out to investigate the processes that control the timing of the transition of ozone from a chemical to dynamically driven regime. The model ozone decrease at 500 K is due to chemical loss in August and September but is due to upward motion in October. The ozone increase at 840 K is primarily due to photochemical production, with a smaller contribution from transport. These results show that chemistry and dynamics can play different roles in polar vortex ozone recovery at different levels.

Description: The Advanced Microwave Scanning 2 Radiometer (AMSR-E) is being built by NASDA to fly on NASA's PM Platform (now called Aqua) in December 2000. This is in addition to a copy of AMSR that will be launched on Japan's ADEOS-II satellite in 2001. The AMSRs improve upon the window frequency radiometer heritage of the SSM/I and SMMR instruments. Major improvements over those instruments include channels spanning the 6.9 GHz to 89 GHz frequency range, and higher spatial resolution from a 1.6 m reflector (AMSR-E) and 2.0 m reflector (ADEOS-II AMSR). The ADEOS-II AMSR also will have 50.3 and 52.8 GHz channels, providing sensitivity to lower tropospheric temperature. NASA funds an AMSR-E Science Team to provide algorithms for the routine production of a number of standard geophysical products. These products will be generated by the AMSR-E Science Investigator-led Processing System (SIPS) at the Global Hydrology Resource Center (GHRC) in Huntsville, Alabama. While there is a separate NASDA-sponsored activity to develop algorithms and produce products from AMSR, as well as a Joint (NASDA-NASA) AMSR Science Team 3 activity, here I will review only the AMSR-E Team's algorithms and how they benefit from the new capabilities that AMSR-E will provide. The US Team's products will be archived at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

Description: In an era of shrinking development budgets and resources, where there is also an emphasis on reducing the product development cycle, the role of system assessment, performed in the early stages of an engine development program, becomes very critical to the successful development of new aeropropulsion systems. A reliable system assessment not only helps to identify the best propulsion system concept among several candidates, it can also identify which technologies are worth pursuing. This is particularly important for advanced aeropropulsion technology development programs, which require an enormous amount of resources. In the current practice of deterministic, or point-design, approaches, the uncertainties of design variables are either unaccounted for or accounted for by safety factors. This could often result in an assessment with unknown and unquantifiable reliability. Consequently, it would fail to provide additional insight into the risks associated with the new technologies, which are often needed by decision makers to determine the feasibility and return-on-investment of a new aircraft engine. In this work, an alternative approach based on the probabilistic method was described for a comprehensive assessment of an aeropropulsion system. The statistical approach quantifies the design uncertainties inherent in a new aeropropulsion system and their influences on engine performance. Because of this, it enhances the reliability of a system assessment. A technical assessment of a wave-rotor-enhanced gas turbine engine was performed to demonstrate the methodology. The assessment used probability distributions to account for the uncertainties that occur in component efficiencies and flows and in mechanical design variables. The approach taken in this effort was to integrate the thermodynamic cycle analysis embedded in the computer code NEPP (NASA Engine Performance Program) and the engine weight analysis embedded in the computer code WATE (Weight Analysis of Turbine Engines) with the fast probability integration technique (FPI). FPI was developed by Southwest Research Institute under contract with the NASA Glenn Research Center. The results were plotted in the form of cumulative distribution functions and sensitivity analyses and were compared with results from the traditional deterministic approach. The comparison showed that the probabilistic approach provides a more realistic and systematic way to assess an aeropropulsion system. The current work addressed the application of the probabilistic approach to assess specific fuel consumption, engine thrust, and weight. Similarly, the approach can be used to assess other aspects of aeropropulsion system performance, such as cost, acoustic noise, and emissions. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Description: In 1997, a child's tantrums caught the world's attention. These tantrums took the form not of crying and foot stamping, but of droughts and floods. Obviously, this was no ordinary child. It was, in fact, The Child, or El Nino, as it was, named in the late 1800s by South American observers, who noted that its timing coincided with the Christmas holiday. El Nino is a reversal in sea surface temperature (SST) distributions that occurs once every few years in the tropical Pacific. When it coincides with a cyclical shift in air pressure, known as the Southern Oscillation, normal weather patterns are drastically altered. The combined phenomenon is known as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Although ENSO is a regular phenomenon, it was unusually strong in 1997. It produced heavy rainfall and floods in California and bestowed spring-like temperatures on the Midwest during the winter. These drastic changes in normal weather patterns captured the public imagination, from news reports to jokes on late-night talk shows. Naturally, people wanted to. know as much, about El Nino as possible. Fortunately, scientists had at their disposal new satellites and ocean sensors that provided an unprecedented level of information. Consequently, not only was the 1997 ENSO the strongest in recent memory, but it was also the most thoroughly studied. Prominent groups such as the NASA Seasonalto-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) combined numerous aspects of climate modeling into a single, predictive endeavor.

Description: Differences in air pressure are a major cause of atmospheric circulation. Because heat excites the movement of atoms, warm temperatures cause, air molecules to expand. Because those molecules now occupy a larger space, the pressure that their weight exerts is decreased. Air from surrounding high-pressure areas is pushed toward the low-pressure areas, creating circulation. This process causes a major pattern of global atmosphere movement known as meridional circulation. In this form of convection, or vertical air movement, heated equatorial air rises and travels through the upper atmosphere toward higher latitudes. Air just above the equator heads toward the North Pole, and air just below the equator moves southward. This air movement fills the gap created where increased air pressure pushes down cold air. The ,cold air moves along the surface back toward the equator, replacing the air masses that rise there. Another influence on atmospheric. circulation is the Coriolis force. Because of the Earth's rotation, large-scale wind currents move in the direction of this axial spin around low-pressure areas. Wind rotates counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. just as the Earth's rotation affects airflow, so too does its surface. In the phenomenon of orographic lifting, elevated topographic features such as mountain ranges lift air as it moves up their surface.

Description: We estimate solar radiative flux changes due to aerosols over the mid-latitude North Atlantic by combining optical depths from AVHRR measurements with aerosol properties from the recent TARFOX program. Results show that, over the ocean the aerosol decreases the net radiative flux at the tropopause and therefore has a cooling effect. Cloud-free, 24-hour average flux changes range from -9 W/sq m near the eastern US coast in summer to -1 W/sq m in the mid-Atlantic during winter. Cloud-free North Atlantic regional averages range from -5.1 W/sq m in summer to -1.7 W/sq m in winter, with an annual average of -3.5 W/sq m. Cloud effects estimated from ISCCP data, reduce the regional annual average to -0.8 W/sq m. All values are for the moderately absorbing TARFOX aerosol (omega(0.55 microns) = 0.9); values for a nonabsorbing aerosol are approx. 30% more negative. We compare our results to a variety of other calculations of aerosol radiative effects.

Description: Aircraft fan and compressor blade leading edges suffer from atmospheric particulate erosion that reduces aerodynamic performance. Recontouring the blade leading edge region can restore blade performance. This process typically results in blades of varying chord length. The question therefore arises as to whether performance of refurbished fans and compressors could be further improved if blades of varying chord length are installed into the disk in a certain order. To investigate this issue the aerodynamic performance of a transonic compressor rotor operating with blades of varying chord length was measured in back-to-back compressor test rig entries. One half of the rotor blades were the full nominal chord length while the remaining half of the blades were cut back at the leading edge to 95% of chord length and recontoured. The rotor aerodynamic performance was measured at 100, 80, and 60% of design speed for three blade installation configurations: nominal-chord blades in half of the disk and short-chord blades in half of the disk; four alternating quadrants of nominal-chord and short-chord blades; nominal-chord and short-chord blades alternating around the disk. No significant difference in performance was found between configurations, indicating that blade chord variation is not important to aerodynamic performance above the stall chord limit if leading edges have the same shape. The stall chord limit for most civil aviation turbofan engines is between 94-96% of nominal (new) blade chord.

Description: This paper presents progress on the development of a generic component level model of a turbofan engine simulation, with a digital controller, in an advanced graphical simulation environment. The goal of this effort is to develop and demonstrate a flexible simulation platform for future research in propulsion system control and diagnostic technology. A FORTRAN-based model of a modem, high performance, military-type turbofan engine is being used to validate the platform development. The implementation process required the development of various innovative procedures, which are discussed in the paper. Open-loop and closed-loop comparisons are made between the two simulations. Future enhancements that are to be made to the modular engine simulation are summarized.

Description: Infrared ozone spectra from near nadir observations have provided atmospheric ozone information from the sensor to the Earth's surface. Simulations of the NPOESS Airborne Sounder Testbed-Interferometer (NAST-I) from the NASA ER-2 aircraft (approximately 20 km altitude) with a spectral resolution of 0.25/cm were used for sensitivity analysis. The spectral sensitivity of ozone retrievals to uncertainties in atmospheric temperature and water vapor is assessed in order to understand the relationship between the IR emissions and the atmospheric state. In addition, ozone spectral radiance sensitivity to its ozone layer densities and radiance weighting functions reveals the limit of the ozone profile retrieval accuracy from NAST-I measurements. Statistical retrievals of ozone with temperature and moisture retrievals from NAST-I spectra have been investigated and the preliminary results from NAST-I field campaigns are presented.

Description: The NASA Langley Research Center's airborne UV Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) system measures vertical profiles of ozone and aerosols above and below the aircraft along its flight track. This system has been used in over 20 airborne field missions designed to study the troposphere and stratosphere since 1980. Four of these missions involved tropospheric measurement programs in the Pacific Ocean with two in the western North Pacific and two in the South Pacific. The UV DIAL system has been used in these missions to study such things as pollution outflow, long-range transport, and stratospheric intrusions; categorize the air masses encountered; and to guide the aircraft to altitudes where interesting features can be studied using the in situ instruments. This paper will highlight the findings with the UV DIAL system in the Pacific Ocean field programs and introduce the mission planned for the western North Pacific for February-April 2001. This will be an excellent opportunity for collaboration between the NASA airborne mission and those with ground-based War systems in Asia Pacific Rim countries to make a more complete determination of the transport of air from Asia to the western Pacific.

Description: Long-term global radiation programs, such as AERONET and BSRN, have shown success in monitoring column averaged cloud and aerosol optical properties. Little attention has been focused on global measurements of vertically resolved optical properties. Lidar systems are the preferred instrument for such measurements. However, global usage of lidar systems has not been achieved because of limits imposed by older systems that were large, expensive, and logistically difficult to use in the field. Small, eye-safe, and autonomous lidar systems are now currently available and overcome problems associated with older systems. The first such lidar to be developed is the Micro-pulse lidar System (MPL). The MPL has proven to be useful in the field because it can be automated, runs continuously (day and night), is eye-safe, can easily be transported and set up, and has a small field-of-view which removes multiple scattering concerns. We have developed successful protocols to operate and calibrate MPL systems. We have also developed a data analysis algorithm that produces data products such as cloud and aerosol layer heights, optical depths, extinction profiles, and the extinction-backscatter ratio. The algorithm minimizes the use of a priori assumptions and also produces error bars for all data products. Here we present an overview of our MPL protocols and data analysis techniques. We also discuss the ongoing construction of a global MPL network in conjunction with the AERONET program. Finally, we present some early results from the MPL network.

Description: Numerical experiment was performed using an general circulation model (GCM) including aerosol indirect effect into water cloud and the simulated global distribution of cloud droplet radii was compared with the global distribution of cloud effective radii retrieved from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). Comparisons of GCM calculation with AVHRR retrieval showed that our GCM generally can simulate the global characteristics of cloud droplet radii such as a land-sea contrast associated with difference of aerosol abundance and coastal region feature due to aerosol injection from adjacent continental area. AVHRR retrieval and GCM simulation, however, are turned out to show disagreement over tropical region. AVHRR retrieval may tend to overestimate droplet radii due to the contamination of signal by drizzles and ice particles, whereas our GCM does not treat aerosol indirect effect in deep convective clouds predominant over tropics. Over equatorial central Pacific, where satellite retrieval may suffer from statistical biases, satellite retrieval and GCM simulation are also found to be different. Keywords: aerosol indirect effect