ALBERT

Notes: The depth distribution of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) was studied in Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana, to develop a model to predict changes in SAV abundance from changes in environmental quality. We conducted annual line-intercept surveys from 1997 through 2001 and monitored monthly photosynthetically active radiation at four sites with different shoreface slopes. The following relationships between SAV distribution and environmental factors were used as model parameters: (1) water clarity controls SAV colonization depth; (2) fluctuation in annual mean water level and wave mixing determines SAV minimum colonization depth; and (3) site differences in SAV areal coverage under the comparable water quality conditions are due to shoreface slope differences. These parameters expressed as mathematical components of the model are as follows: mean water clarity determines SAV colonization depth (Zmax= 2.3/Kd); mean water level and wave mixing controls SAV minimum depth (Zmin= 0.3 m); and shoreface slope angle (θ) determines the distance from Zmin to Zmax. The equation developed for the potential SAV habitat (PSAV) model is PSAV = (2.3 − 0.3 ×Kd)/(sinθ×Kd). The model was validated by comparing empirical values from the dataset to values predicted by the model. Although the model was developed to predict the PSAV in Lake Pontchartrain, it can be applied to other coastal habitats if local SAV light requirements are substituted for Lake Pontchartrain values. This model is a useful tool in selecting potential restoration sites and in predicting the extent of SAV habitat gain after restoration.

Notes: Assessing the community-level consequences of ecological restoration treatments is essential to guide future restoration efforts. We compared the vegetation composition and species richness of restored sites that received a range of restoration treatments and those of unrestored sites that experienced varying levels of disturbance. Our study was conducted in the industrially degraded landscape surrounding Sudbury, Ontario, Canada. The Great Lakes–St. Lawrence Forest once present in this area was degraded through logging, mining, and smelting activities beginning in the late 1800s until restoration of the most visibly degraded areas began in 1974. Restoration treatments ranged from simple abiotic enhancements to complex, multistage revegetation treatments using native and non-native species, which included fertilizing, spreading of ground dolomitic limestone, understory seeding, and tree planting. Canonical correspondence analysis was used to determine which restoration treatments explained differences in the community structure among sites. We found that native understory vascular species richness was similar in restored sites that received more complex restoration treatments and unrestored sites that were mildly disturbed; however, the role of planted trees and non-native species in the restored communities remains unclear. Understory vascular seeding played a key role in determining community composition of vascular understory and overstory communities, but the time since restoration commenced was a more important factor for nonvascular communities because they received no direct biotic enhancements. The use of non-native species in the vascular seed mix seems to be slowly encouraging the colonization of native species, but non-natives continue to dominate restored sites 25 years after restoration began.

Notes: Grasslands dominated by exotic annual grasses have replaced native perennial vegetation types in vast areas of California. Prescribed spring fires can cause a temporary replacement of exotic annual grasses by native and non-native forbs, but generally do not lead to recovery of native perennials, especially where these have been entirely displaced for many years. Successful reintroduction of perennial species after fire depends on establishment in the postfire environment. We studied the effects of vegetation changes after an April fire on competition for soil moisture, a key factor in exotic annual grass dominance. As an alternative to fire, solarization effectively kills seeds of most plant species but with a high labor investment per area. We compared the burn to solarization in a study of establishment and growth of seeds and transplants of the native perennial grass Purple needlegrass (Nassella pulchra) and coastal sage species California sagebrush (Artemisia californica). After the fire, initial seed bank and seedling densities and regular percent cover and soil moisture (0–20 cm) data were collected in burned and unburned areas. Burned areas had 96% fewer viable seeds of the dominant annual grass, Ripgut brome (Bromus diandrus), leading to replacement by forbs from the seed bank, especially non-native Black mustard (Brassica nigra). In the early growing season, B. diandrus dominating unburned areas consistently depleted soil moisture to a greater extent between rains than forbs in burned areas. However, B. diandrus senesced early, leaving more moisture available in unburned areas after late-season rains. Nassella pulchra and A. californica established better on plots treated with fire and/or solarization than on untreated plots. We conclude that both spring burns and solarization can produce conditions where native perennials can establish in annual grasslands. However, the relative contribution of these treatments to restoration appears to depend on the native species being reintroduced, and the long-term success of these initial restoration experiments remains to be determined.

Notes: This study assesses the risks in ecological restoration arising from transplanting into soil containing glyphosate residues. Four Australian restoration species were grown for 60 days in nonadsorbing media treated continuously with glyphosate to establish threshold concentrations for damage. Visual signs of injury were observed in three species, and severe effects on root growth in all species, at solution concentrations as low as 18 mg/L. Only the perennial grass Themeda sp. died at this concentration, with other species surviving at concentrations in the range 36–360 mg/L, beyond which all plants died. Fourteen days exposure followed by removal of glyphosate from root media produced similar effects. Field and glasshouse experiments with the relatively tolerant tree species Angophora costata showed that application rates in the range 10–50 L/ha of herbicide product (360 g/L) would be needed to sustain damage to young plants transplanted into soil typical of local restoration sites. The volume of spray delivered using a hand-operated sprayer varied between operators by 5- and 10-fold to complete the same tasks, at the high end presenting a potential risk to the most tolerant species under field conditions, even when spray concentrations follow label instructions. For all but the most sensitive species, the risk of glyphosate residues in ecological restoration should be minimized by training operators of unregulated applicators to deliver controlled volumes of herbicide when spot spraying prior to transplanting.

Notes: Restoring habitat structure that existed before active and inadvertent fire suppression is thought to be critical to maintaining populations of some rare plants in fire-suppressed habitats. Nevertheless, the impacts of habitat restoration on most endangered plants are poorly understood. Current theory predicts and empirical studies have shown that the reduction of shade or competition (frequently a goal of many habitat restoration projects in degraded fire-dependent ecosystems) benefits plants adapted to nutrient-poor soils by increasing the benefit-to-cost ratio of adaptations for enhanced nutrient capture. Here, I examined how experimental reduction of neighboring plants in a wet longleaf pine community dominated in the ground cover by shrubs and stump sprouts influenced the growth, the reproduction, the carnivorous effort, and the benefits of carnivory in a U.S. federally endangered species, Sarracenia rubra ssp. alabamensis. Two years of data showed no significant effects of neighbor reduction or prey exclusion on any of several indicators of plant performance, nor was there any evidence of a hypothesized morphological trade-off between shade avoidance and prey capture. These results were unexpected. Inadequate replication and atypical precipitation patterns were ruled out as possible explanations. The population studied here (unlike that of a different, but morphologically similar, species growing in a fire-maintained pine grass–sedge savanna) did not exhibit the ability to respond to variation in competition from neighboring plants.

Notes: In Ohio and elsewhere, recent grassland plantings in the federal Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) have become much more extensive than native prairie remnants. The seed source for CRP grasslands in Ohio often comes from as far away as Missouri or Texas, which may be undesirable from the standpoint of conservation genetics. The goal of this study was to examine the potential for gene flow from large, recently introduced populations of Big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii, Poaceae) to small local populations of this outcrossing perennial species. We examined the potential for cross-pollination between three local populations and three introduced CRP populations by comparing flowering phenologies. Flowering times overlapped extensively, indicating that cross-pollination is possible where local and introduced genotypes co-occur. To compare genetic variation in local and CRP populations, we analyzed variation at 68 RAPD loci in six populations of each type. Somewhat surprisingly, we found no significant differences in the genetic diversity or composition between the two groups (local vs. CRP). In summary, we found that local and introduced populations of Big bluestem have the potential to interbreed, based on their flowering periods, but further research is needed to determine whether local genotypes harbor unique genetic variation that could be jeopardized by hybridization with introduced genotypes.

Notes: Coastal protection remains a global priority. Protection and maintenance of shoreline integrity is often a goal of many coastal protection programs. Typically, shorelines are protected by armoring them with hard, non-native, and nonsustainable materials such as limestone. This study investigated the potential shoreline protection role of created, three-dimensional Eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) shell reefs fringing eroding marsh shorelines in Louisiana. Experimental reefs (25 × 1.0 × 0.7 m; intertidal) were created in June 2002 at both high and low wave energy shorelines. Six 25-m study sites (three cultched and three control noncultched) were established at each shoreline in June 2002, for a total of 12 sites. Shoreline retreat was reduced in cultched low-energy shorelines as compared to the control low-energy shorelines (analysis of variance; p 〈 0.001) but was not significantly different between cultched and noncultched sites in high-energy environments. Spat set increased from 0.5 ± 0.1 spat/shell in July 2002 to a peak of 9.5 ± 0.4 spat/shell in October 2002. On average, oyster spat grew at a rate of 0.05 mm/day through the duration of the study. Recruitment and growth rates of oyster spat suggested potential reef sustainability over time. Small fringing reefs may be a useful tool in protecting shorelines in low-energy environments. However, their usefulness may be limited in high-energy environments.

Notes: The Araucaria forest is Brazil's highly threatened subtropical forest ecosystem that has been disappearing in recent decades. Restoration programs involving this forest type are scarce, and there is a lack of scientific information on how ecological processes such as competition, facilitation, and seed dispersal influence natural forest restoration. This work aims to investigate how use of perches to attract seed dispersers and the influence of pioneer vegetation and soil fertilization could affect the colonization of woody species in a degraded area. An experiment was conducted in an abandoned field where the natural establishment of seeds and seedlings of woody species was monitored under factorial combinations of the following treatments: (1) pioneer vegetation (presence and absence); (2) soil fertility (addition of NPK and control); and (3) perches (presence and absence). Seed and seedling abundance, seed and seedling species richness, and seedling mortality were recorded monthly during 12 months. Seed abundance and species richness were significantly greater in places with perches than in control plots. These results were consistent over the year and more pronounced when the surrounding forest produced a higher amount of fruit. Species richness and abundance of seedlings were significantly greater in places with perches than in control plots, and in places with vegetation than without. Soil fertility did not influence seedling establishment. Facilitation and seed dispersal are important factors affecting the colonization of woody species in this subtropical area. Nutrient availability neither regulates the facilitation process nor influences species replacement during the early stages of Araucaria forest succession.

Notes: We investigate the scenario in which some amount of higher quality habitat is destroyed and is then replaced by some undetermined amount of lower quality habitat. We examined how much low-quality habitat would need to be created to maintain the equilibrium population abundance in the entire geographic area. Using a source–sink model, we find that (1) the number of hectares of created habitat per hectare of destroyed habitat must equal the ratio of the high-quality habitat's productivity to the low-quality habitat's productivity, however, (2) if the created habitat is a sink, then there is a threshold fraction of destroyed high-quality habitat below which the initial population abundance cannot be maintained through the creation of habitat. We illustrate these results using data on Red-winged Blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus) in two different regions where high-quality habitat is being replaced by or converted into lower quality habitat.

Notes: Introduced grasses have displaced Hawaiian Pili grass (Heteropogon contortus) in most dry, leeward habitats of the Hawaiian Islands. The purpose of this study was to assess the feasibility of restoring an indigenous Heteropogon grassland at the Puukohola Heiau National Historic Site, where introduced Buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris) is now dominant. Heteropogon seeds (50 seedlings/m2) were added to replicate plots within a Cenchrus grassland. Some plots were subjected to one-time herbicide or hand-pulling treatments to remove established Cenchrus. Because Hawaiians historically used fire to promote Heteropogon grasslands, the plots were burned biennially. Plots were also subjected to two levels of water supplementation. Heteropogon establishment was monitored over 2 and 4 years in the higher- and lower-water plots, respectively. In treatments containing established Cenchrus, Heteropogon establishment was consistently poor (〈10% cover). But in the burned plots where established Cenchrus had been removed, as many as 31 Heteropogon seedlings per square meter were recorded, and Heteropogon became the dominant cover, averaging 34% absolute cover (81% relative cover) after 4 years in the lower-water plot and 34% absolute cover (60% relative cover) after 2 years in the higher-water plot. Few Cenchrus grass seedlings survived, possibly due to insufficient water. Water supplementation promoted growth of other alien grasses from the seed bank (Digitaria insularis and Eragrostis spp.); however, these grasses quickly declined after supplemental watering was terminated. Although initial suppression of Cenchrus was required, Heteropogon expanded quickly when seeds and fire were reintroduced, demonstrating that a Heteropogon-dominated grassland can be reestablished in 2–4 years.

Notes: Human activities have degraded riparian systems in numerous ways, including homogenization of the floodplain landscape and minimization of extreme flows. We analyzed the effects of changes in these and other factors for extinction–colonization dynamics of a threatened Bank Swallow population along the upper Sacramento River, California, U.S.A. We monitored Bank Swallow distributions along a 160-km stretch of the river from 1986–1992 and 1996–2003 and tested whether site extinctions and colonizations corresponded with changes in maximum river discharge, surrounding land cover, estimated colony size, temperature, and precipitation. Colonization probabilities increased with maximum discharge. Extinction probabilities decreased with proximity to the nearest grassland, decreased with colony size, and increased with maximum discharge. To explore the implications for restoration, we incorporated the statistically estimated effects of distance to grassland and maximum discharge into simple metapopulation models. Under current conditions, the Bank Swallow metapopulation appears to be in continued decline, although stable or increasing numbers cannot be ruled out with the existing data. Maximum likelihood parameters from these regression models suggest that the Sacramento River metapopulation could be restored to 45 colonies through moderate amounts of grassland restoration, large increases in discharge, or direct restoration of nesting habitat by removing approximately 10% of existing bank protection (riprap) from suitable areas. Our results highlight the importance of grassland restoration, mixed benefits of restoring high spring discharge, and the importance of within-colony dynamics as areas for future research.

Notes: Spatial heterogeneity of resources can influence plant community composition and diversity in natural communities. We manipulated soil depth (two levels) and nutrient availability (three levels) to create four heterogeneity treatments (no heterogeneity, depth heterogeneity, nutrient heterogeneity, and depth + nutrient heterogeneity) replicated in an agricultural field seeded to native prairie species. Our objective was to determine whether resource heterogeneity influences species diversity and the trajectory of community development during grassland restoration. The treatments significantly increased heterogeneity of available inorganic nitrogen (N), soil water content, and light penetration. Plant diversity was indirectly related to resource heterogeneity through positive relationships with variability in productivity and cover established by the belowground manipulations. Diversity was inversely correlated with the average cover of the dominant grass, Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), which increased over time in all heterogeneity treatments and resulted in community convergence among the heterogeneity treatments over time. The success of this cultivar across the wide range of resource availability was attributed to net photosynthesis rates equivalent to or higher than those of the native prairie plants in the presence of lower foliar N content. Our results suggest that resource heterogeneity alone may not increase diversity in restorations where a dominant species can successfully establish across the range of resource availability. This is consistent with theory regarding the role of ecological filters on community assembly in that the establishment of one species best adapted for the physical and biological conditions can play an inordinately important role in determining community structure.

Notes: A pilot experiment designed to test the effect of cattle, small mammals, and elevation on the success of reforestation of an endemic dwarf pine species in northeastern Mexico was implemented. Pinus culminicola (Andresen et Beaman) grows only in four high peaks in the Sierra Madre Oriental and is under pressure from grazing, wildfires, and human activities such as mining, road development for timber extraction, and telecommunication and aerial navigation devices. We planted and monitored 2-year-old seedlings at three elevations within the natural distribution range of this species at Cerro El Potosí in Nuevo León, Mexico. At each elevation three treatments were established: (1) seedlings protected from cattle plus small mammals, (2) seedlings protected from cattle, and (3) seedlings with free access to cattle and small mammals. Seedling survival was approximately 50% in (1) after 4 years, but there were no surviving seedlings with free access to cattle. Elevation in general did not account for variation in survival. Seedling growth was poor during the 4 years, which implies that seedlings remain susceptible to grazing and trampling by cattle and small mammals. The implications for a large-scale restoration program are discussed.

Notes: Salvaging from premining areas and translocation of succulent plants has been investigated for the revegetation of gypsiferous mine spoil in an arid region of South Africa. Given that facilitation effects are thought to outweigh competition effects in harsh environments, we hypothesized that the survival of translocated succulents would be higher when planted in multispecies clumps than alone and that the growth rate (measured as stem extension) and fruit-set would be greater for plants in clumps than for those planted alone. Two leaf-succulent species (Aridaria noctiflora ssp. noctiflora and Drosanthemum deciduum) and one stem-succulent species (Psilocaulon dinteri) were salvaged from the area destined for mining and translocated onto the mine spoil. These plants were planted either in a multispecies clump of the three species together or alone. One year after translocation, 67% of the plants survived. It was also found that the succulents used in these experiments survived in higher numbers when planted alone. Due to the similar root morphology of D. deciduum and P. dinteri, they competed for resources instead of facilitating each other's establishment. The results were variable for each of the species used, and neither growth nor seed-set was improved by clumping. These findings would also possibly vary from year to year with different abiotic conditions.

Notes: Human-induced erosion regularly delivers massive quantities of fine sediments into streams and rivers forming large static bodies of sediment known as sand slugs, which smother in-stream habitat, alter community structure, and decrease biodiversity. Sand slugs are widespread in parts of southeastern Australia as well as in many other parts of the world, and there is now considerable interest in restoring such affected streams. The reintroduction of large timber is widely suggested as a strategy for restoring habitat complexity, but this has rarely been tested in sand slug–affected streams. We examined the response of fish populations to wood addition to two streams in southeastern Australia that have been impacted by sand slugs. Manipulated sites (three per treatment) had either one or four timber structures added, and these sites were compared with (three) unmanipulated (control) sites before and after the manipulation occurred. Despite a supraseasonal drought during the study, we observed short-term increases in the abundance of Mountain galaxias (Galaxias olidus) at the four-structure sites, while both the four-structure and the one-structure treatments appeared to buffer against drought-induced declines in two other species, River blackfish (Gadopsis marmoratus) and Southern pygmy perch (Nannoperca australis), relative to controls. However, drought eventually caused the complete loss of surface water from these streams and the loss of fish from both manipulated and unmanipulated sites. Thus, although the study supports the use of timber structures as a means of increasing local fish abundances, these beneficial effects were, in these streams, contingent upon permanency of flow. Because sedimentation has depleted the number of permanent refuge pools in these creeks, recovery rates of the fauna (i.e., resilience) are likely to be slow. We therefore conclude that in streams subjected to frequent disturbance, restoring refugia may be as, if not more, important as restoring what we term residential habitat.

Notes: Numerous tree species can establish by vegetative means in the tropics. Many are used in agriculture as living fences and in alley cropping and could also be used in a restorational setting. However, little is known about their establishment ability. This study evaluated the establishment ability and cover development of multiple species in three separate field trials in northern Honduras. First, 11 species were evaluated for their ability to establish in a common garden experiment. Second, of the former species, Bursera simaruba and Gliricidia sepium were evaluated for 2 years for their ability to establish vegetatively and develop cover at three deforested sites. Lastly, a study examined whether greater initial stake height and diameter at breast height increased the establishment success and crown development of G. sepium stakes. First, five species, Erythrina berteroana, Erythrina fusca, Jatropha curcas, G. sepium, and B. simaruba, had high establishment success. Others showed promise but may have been planted in the wrong season. Second, establishment for G. sepium was nearly 100% at all sites, whereas B. simaruba ranged from 30–50%. Gliricidia sepium stakes developed more rapidly and attained greater cover than B. simaruba. Dry season planting may increase the establishment success of both species. Lastly, greater initial stake height and diameter at breast height each resulted in greater crown development for G. sepium. The use of living fence species as a restorational tool has been overlooked. Aside from the advantages of planting tree species vegetatively, species can act as seed recruitment foci by attracting seed dispersers and provide shade to improve microclimatic conditions for seedling establishment. The technique described is simple and could have broad application throughout tropical regions.

Notes: We studied the effects of limestone sand additions in Bear and Rock runs, two chronically and episodically acidified streams in southwestern Pennsylvania, U.S.A. Linn Run, a nearby episodically acidified stream, served as a reference stream. Our objectives were to evaluate the effects of doubling recommended limestone sand amounts on water quality and macroinvertebrates on Bear and Rock runs and to assess substrate changes resulting from limestone sand inundation. Approximately 23 and 6 tonnes of limestone sand were added annually to the headwaters of Bear and Rock runs, respectively, from 1999 to 2001. In 2002, amounts were doubled. Macroinvertebrate communities were assessed from 1999 to 2003 at points above and below the sand additions on Bear Run and Rock Run. Small, plastic substrate samplers were used to assess sand substrate effects. Doubling annual limestone sand amounts resulted in significantly improved pH and acid-neutralizing capacity; however, total dissolved aluminum increased significantly downstream (α≤ 0.05). Macroinvertebrate density and diversity were not significantly affected, but an increase in acid-sensitive taxa was observed at a site 3,500 m downstream. Substrate sampler data indicated a significant negative relationship between amount of sand deposited and density of macroinvertebrates. The mixed water quality and benthic macroinvertebrate results were reasonably consistent with earlier work and call into question the use of limestone sand in the restoration of chronically and episodically acidified waters.

Notes: Ecosystem restoration in highly complex, human-dominated estuaries rests on a strong conceptual foundation of sustainability, ecosystems, and adaptive management of human-induced environmental impacts. Successful application involves evaluating uncertainty, incorporating place-based information, and engaging diverse constituencies in the planning process. That means integration of technical knowledge with an understanding of the “cultural milieu” inherent in all estuaries, that is, the intensity of human activity and impacts plus socioeconomic factors relevant to restoration goals. Operational definitions of what constitutes acceptable ecosystem conditions and current baselines are critical yet rest in large measure on cultural values and socioeconomic considerations. Resources for long-term monitoring and research to assess performance and ecosystem condition are paramount. Unprecedented population growth promises additional stressors on estuarine environments worldwide, making maintenance of present conditions difficult. The art of good, practical ecosystem restoration as a management tool at multiple geographic scales promises to play a crucial role in sustainability goals.

Notes: Restoration of wet prairie in the central midwestern United States should include Prairie cordgrass (Spartina pectinata), but historic densities of this once dominant species are not easily achieved. Spartina pectinata was transplanted into a former agricultural field in three planting strategies: 20 small plugs, 4 medium-sized plugs, and a single large plug, with each treatment area totaling 0.6 m2. Plugs were sampled annually for 3 years to determine which planting strategy produced highest survival, area, stem density (per unit vegetated area), and height of S. pectinata It was also determined whether these factors varied with microtopography, and the resulting differences in flooding, within the restoration site. Stem density and height of restored S. pectinata were also compared to reference S. pectinata communities, including both pristine populations and the source of transplants. Because soil particle size and soil nitrogen content can influence S. pectinata stem density and height, these soil characteristics were also tested in restored and reference sites. Three years after planting, S. pectinata survived in all planted plots regardless of planting strategy or microtopography, with an overall survival rate of 89.8% at the end of the study. The small plug treatment produced the greatest area after 3 years (3.99 m2), compared with the final area of medium (1.18 m2) and large plug treatments (0.79 m2). Stem density of small and medium plugs decreased dramatically during the sampling period, whereas density of large plugs increased. Height did not vary among planting strategies, and microtopography did not affect area, stem density, or height. Reference populations of S. pectinata had greater stem density and height than the transplanted plugs in the restoration, and these differences cannot be attributed to soil particle size or soil nitrogen. This study indicates that more than 3 years is needed to create area, density, or height of S. pectinata similar to established wet prairie populations. Planting many small plugs yields the greatest area of S. pectinata, and including some large plugs may add dense physical structure to wet prairie restoration.

Notes: Beach nourishment creates many opportunities for resource development and use, but it also creates new issues regarding cumulative, long-term losses in borrow areas and appropriate human actions in fill areas. Nourished beaches should be considered as more than consumptive resources built for shore protection and recreation. Assessments of nourishment projects in the United States are used to identify research needed to address impacts on species and habitats in borrow areas and restoration of natural subenvironments in nourished areas. Achieving these goals involves changes in stakeholder attitudes about the meaning of beach nourishment and development of research initiatives to demonstrate the scientific, technologic, and economic feasibility of methods that are more compatible with maintaining or restoring natural landforms and habitats. Suggestions are made for expanding the spatial and temporal scales of investigation, evaluating alternative beach and sediment types, identifying new uses for fill, evaluating alternative technologies and practices, implementing adaptive management strategies, assessing stakeholder attitudes and capabilities, overcoming cost constraints, and conducting interdisciplinary studies.

Notes: To bridge the gaps between restoration as a science and as a practice, restoration ecology has to broaden its scope toward transdisciplinarity in close cooperation with landscape ecologists and other holistic environmentally oriented scientists, professionals, practitioners, and stakeholders. For restoration, the ongoing transdisciplinary scientific revolution has opened new insights to cope with the complex bio-hydro- and human-ecological network relations. The Total Human Ecosystem (THE), integrating humans with all other organisms and their total environment at the highest level of the global hierarchy, should become the unifying holistic paradigm for all synthetic “eco-disciplines.” These should link ecological knowledge, wisdom, and ethics with their scientific and professional expertise from the natural and social sciences and the humanities. As the tangible matrix for all organisms, including humans, our industrial Total Human Landscape is the concrete spatial and functional system of the THE. It forms a closely interlaced network of solar energy–powered natural and seminatural biosphere landscapes and fossil energy–powered urban and agro-industrial technosphere landscapes. The self-organizing and self-creative restoration capacities of biosphere landscapes are driven by mutually amplifying auto- and cross-catalytic feedback loops, but the rapidly expanding technosphere landscapes are driven by destabilizing “run-away” feedback loops. To prevent a global breakdown and to ensure the sustainable future for both humankind and nature, these positive feedbacks have to be counteracted by restraining, cultural feedbacks of environmental planning and management, conservation, and restoration. As the theme of this special issue alludes to, this template should become an integral part of an urgently needed sustainability revolution, to which the transdisciplinary landscape restoration could contribute its important share.

Notes: Trust in risk managers appears to be an important antecedent of public acceptance for many hazards. However, such trust may be fragile since research suggests that negative performance information has a greater impact than positive performance information (Slovic, 1993). Closer examination of these findings suggests two potential moderators of this valence-related asymmetry—information specificity and hazard risk potential. First, we predicted that the asymmetry would be less evident for low versus high specificity information (risk management policies vs. concrete events). Second, we predicted that it would also be less evident for a low- versus high-risk hazard (pharmaceutical vs. nuclear industry). Study 1 reanalyzed Slovic's original trust asymmetry data for the nuclear industry. In line with Prediction 1, trust asymmetry was less evident for policy than event-related information. Using a new set of items with more clearly defined levels of specificity, Study 2 replicated and extended these findings for the high-risk hazard (nuclear power). In line with Prediction 2, trust asymmetry was even less evident for the low-risk hazard (pharmaceuticals). Positive policies in this industry actually had a greater impact on trust than negative ones, in contrast to previous findings. Results support an information diagnosticity account of earlier findings and suggest that trust in risk managers may be more robust than previously believed.

Notes: Much attention has been addressed to the question of whether Europe or the United States adopts a more precautionary stance to the regulation of potential environmental, health, and safety risks. Some commentators suggest that Europe is more risk-averse and precautionary, whereas the United States is seen as more risk-taking and optimistic about the prospects for new technology. Others suggest that the United States is more precautionary because its regulatory process is more legalistic and adversarial, while Europe is more lax and corporatist in its regulations. The flip-flop hypothesis claims that the United States was more precautionary than Europe in the 1970s and early 1980s, and that Europe has become more precautionary since then. We examine the levels and trends in regulation of environmental, health, and safety risks since 1970. Unlike previous research, which has studied only a small set of prominent cases selected nonrandomly, we develop a comprehensive list of almost 3,000 risks and code the relative stringency of regulation in Europe and the United States for each of 100 risks randomly selected from that list for each year from 1970 through 2004. Our results suggest that: (a) averaging over risks, there is no significant difference in relative precaution over the period, (b) weakly consistent with the flip-flop hypothesis, there is some evidence of a modest shift toward greater relative precaution of European regulation since about 1990, although (c) there is a diversity of trends across risks, of which the most common is no change in relative precaution (including cases where Europe and the United States are equally precautionary and where Europe or the United States has been consistently more precautionary). The overall finding is of a mixed and diverse pattern of relative transatlantic precaution over the period.

Notes: This article tests the hypothesis that the exposure to the threat to societies posed by the introduction of new technologies is associated with a normalization of risk perception. Data collected in 2000 by the International Social Survey Programme (ISSP) on environmental issues were used to explore this hypothesis. Representative samples from 25 countries were employed to assess the national levels of perceived threat to the environment associated with a series of technologies and activities. These values were correlated with economic indicators (mainly from the World Bank) of the diffusion of each of the technologies or activities in each country. Results indicate a negative association of risk perception with the level of technological prevalence (societal normalization effect) and a positive association with the rate of growth of the technology (societal sensitivity effect). These results indicate that the most acute levels of perceived environmental risk are found in those countries where the level of technological prevalence is low but where there has recently been substantial technological development. Environmental awareness is a mediator of the relationship between risk perception and the indices of technological diffusion. This result means that: (1) societal normalization of risk is not a direct consequence of prevalence of the technology, but is driven by awareness of technological development and that (2) societal sensitivity to risk is associated with lower levels of environmental awareness.

Notes: This article investigates whether the choice experiment approach can be used to assess people's preferences and the determinants of these preferences in order to estimate the costs and benefits of different configurations of the transport of hazardous materials by rail. Changes in the exposure to hazardous materials that people are subjected to are used rather than changes in accident risk. To the best knowledge of the author, this has not been done before in a study of people's preferences toward hazardous materials. A mail survey, carried out in two cities in Sweden, is used to obtain tentative estimates of the willingness to pay for a reduction in exposure as well as the willingness to accept an increase in exposure. Special attention is given to viability, since the complexity of the activity studied, transport of hazardous materials, and the method used pose particular challenges. The response rate and tests of validity and consistency indicate that this method can be applied. Moreover, the results suggest that studies of this kind may provide guidance on changes in the transport of hazardous materials, especially because policymakers may influence the attributes presented here. Referring to the exposure of hazardous materials highlights the importance of providing the respondents with adequate information regarding hazardous transports. An important finding is that the amount of background information may have some effect on the stated preferences.

Notes: This article presents a Listeria monocytogenes growth model in milk at the farm bulk tank stage. The main objective was to judge the feasibility and value to risk assessors of introducing a complex model, including a complete thermal model, within a microbial quantitative risk assessment scheme. Predictive microbiology models are used under varying temperature conditions to predict bacterial growth. Input distributions are estimated based on data in the literature, when it is available. If not, reasonable assumptions are made for the considered context. Previously published results based on a Bayesian analysis of growth parameters are used. A Monte Carlo simulation that forecasts bacterial growth is the focus of this study. Three scenarios that take account of the variability and uncertainty of growth parameters are compared. The effect of a sophisticated thermal model taking account of continuous variations in milk temperature was tested by comparison with a simplified model where milk temperature was considered as constant. Limited multiplication of bacteria within the farm bulk tank was modeled. The two principal factors influencing bacterial growth were found to be tank thermostat regulation and bacterial population growth parameters. The dilution phenomenon due to the introduction of new milk was the main factor affecting the final bacterial concentration. The results show that a model that assumes constant environmental conditions at an average temperature should be acceptable for this process. This work may constitute a first step toward exposure assessment for L. monocytogenes in milk. In addition, this partly conceptual work provides guidelines for other risk assessments where continuous variation of a parameter needs to be taken into account.

Notes: Limited time and resources usually characterize environmental decision making at policy organizations such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In these climates, addressing uncertainty, usually considered a flaw in scientific analyses, is often avoided. However, ignoring uncertainties can result in unpleasant policy surprises. Furthermore, it is important for decisionmakers to know how defensible a chosen policy option is over other options when the uncertainties of the data are considered. The purpose of this article is to suggest an approach that is unique from other approaches in that it considers uncertainty in two specific ways—the uncertainty of stakeholder values within a particular decision context and data uncertainty in the light of the decision-contextual data–values relationship. It is the premise of this article that the interaction between data and stakeholder values is critical to how the decision options are viewed and determines the effect of data uncertainty on the relative acceptability of the decision options, making the understanding of this interaction important to decisionmakers and other stakeholders. This approach utilizes the recently developed decision analysis framework and process, multi-criteria integrated resource assessment (MIRA). This article will specifically address how MIRA can be used to help decisionmakers better understand the importance of uncertainty on the specific (i.e., decision contextual) environmental policy options that they are deliberating.

Notes: Perceptions of risks associated with mobile phones, base stations, and other sources of electromagnetic fields (EMF) were examined. Data from a telephone survey conducted in the German- and French-speaking parts of Switzerland are presented (N= 1,015). Participants assessed both risks and benefits associated with nine different sources of EMF. Trust in the authorities regulating these hazards was assessed as well. In addition, participants answered a set of questions related to attitudes toward EMF and toward mobile phone base stations. According to respondents' assessments, high-voltage transmission lines are the most risky source of EMF. Mobile phones and mobile phone base stations received lower risk ratings. Results showed that trust in authorities was positively associated with perceived benefits and negatively associated with perceived risks. People who use their mobile phones frequently perceived lower risks and higher benefits than people who use their mobile phones infrequently. People who believed they lived close to a base station did not significantly differ in their level of risks associated with mobile phone base stations from people who did not believe they lived close to a base station. Regarding risk regulation, a majority of participants were in favor of fixing limiting values based on the worst-case scenario. Correlations suggest that belief in paranormal phenomena is related to level of perceived risks associated with EMF. Furthermore, people who believed that most chemical substances cause cancer also worried more about EMF than people who did not believe that chemical substances are that harmful. Practical implications of the results are discussed.

Notes: Experts contend that weather and climate forecasts could have an important role in risk management strategies for community water systems. Yet, most water managers make minimal use of these forecasts. This research explores the determinants of the use of weather and climate forecasts by surveying managers of community water systems in two eastern American states (South Carolina and the Susquehanna River Basin of Pennsylvania). Assessments of the reliability of weather and climate forecasts are not driving their use as water managers who find forecasts reliable are no more likely to use them than are managers who find them unreliable. Although larger systems and those depending on surface water are more likely to use forecasts for some (but not all) purposes, the strongest determinant of forecast use is risk perceptions. Water managers who expect to face problems from weather events in the next decade are much more likely to use forecasts than are water managers who expect few problems. Their expectations of future problems are closely linked with past experience: water managers who have had problems with specific types of weather events (e.g., flood emergencies) in the last 5 years are likely to expect to experience problems in the next decade. Feeling at risk, regardless of the specific source of that weather-related risk, stimulates a decision to use weather and climate forecasts.

Notes: The growing international trade in live wildlife has the potential to result in continuing establishment of nonnative animal populations in the United States. Snakes may pose particularly high risks as potentially invasive species, as exemplified by the decimation of Guam's vertebrate fauna by the accidentally introduced brown tree snake. Herein, ecological and commercial predictors of the likelihood of establishment of invasive populations were used to model risk associated with legal commercial imports of 23 species of boas, pythons, and relatives into the United States during the period 1989–2000. Data on ecological variables were collected from multiple sources, while data on commercial variables were collated from import records maintained by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Results of the risk-assessment models indicate that species including boa constrictors (Boa constrictor), ball pythons (Python regius), and reticulated pythons (P. reticulatus) may pose particularly high risks as potentially invasive species. Recommendations for reducing risk of establishment of invasive populations of snakes and/or pathogens include temporary quarantine of imports to increase detection rates of nonnative pathogens, increasing research attention to reptile pathogens, reducing the risk that nonnative snakes will reach certain areas with high numbers of federally listed species (such as the Florida Keys), and attempting to better educate individuals purchasing reptiles.

Notes: This study examines the perceived risks to forest biodiversity and perceived effectiveness of biodiversity conservation strategies among the general public. It tests the hypotheses that perceived risk to forest biodiversity is influenced by cognitive factors (value orientation and knowledge) and social-cultural factors (such as gender and environmental membership) and that risk perceptions influence other cognitive constructs such as support for natural resource policy and management. Data were collected from a sample of the general public (n= 596) in British Columbia, Canada by mail survey in 2001. Results show that insects and disease were perceived as the greatest risk. Educating the public and industry about biodiversity issues was perceived as a more effective conservation strategy than restricting human uses of the forest. Value orientation was a better predictor of perceptions of risk and perceived effectiveness of conservation strategies than knowledge indicators or social-cultural variables. Examining the indirect effects of social-cultural variables, however, revealed that value orientation may amplify the effect of these variables and suggests that alternative paths of influence should be included. Perceived risk showed an inconsistent association with perceived effectiveness of conservation strategies.

Notes: A unique multidisciplinary perspective on the risk literature is used to establish a fresh and provocative argument regarding the epistemological understanding and definition of risk. Building on economic conceptualizations that distinguish risk from uncertainty and argue that risk is an ordered application of knowledge to the unknown, the survey identifies each of the disciplines as having a particular knowledge approach with which they confront the unknown so as to order its randomness and convert it into a risk proposition. This epistemological approach suggests the concept of risk can act as a mirror, reflecting the preoccupations, strengths, and weaknesses of each discipline as they grapple with uncertainty. The conclusion suggests that the different disciplines can, and desirably should, act in concert toward a cumulative appreciation of risk that progresses our understanding of the concept. One way in which the article challenges risk experts to join disciplinary forces in a collaborative effort is to holistically appreciate and articulate the concept of political risk calculation.

Notes: By displaying a risk reduction of 50% graphically rather than numerically, Stone, Yates, and Parker significantly increased professed risk-avoidant behavior. The current experiments replicated this effect at various risk ratios. Specifically, participants were willing to spend more money to reduce a risk when the risk information was displayed by asterisks rather than by numbers for risk-reduction ratios ranging from 3% to 97%. Transforming the amount participants were willing to spend to logarithms significantly improved a linear fit to the data, suggesting that participants convert this variable within the decision-making process. Moreover, a log-linear model affords an exceptional fit to both the graphical and numerical data, suggesting that a graphical presentation elicits the same decision-making mechanism as does the numerical display. In addition, the data also suggest that each person removed from harm is weighted more by some additional factor in the graphical compared to the numerical presentations.

Notes: While quantitative estimates of risk have been a standard practice in cancer risk assessment for many years, no similar practice is evident in noncancer risk assessment. We use two recent examples involving methylmercury and arsenic to illustrate the negative impact of this discrepancy on risk communication and cost-benefit analysis. We argue for a more balanced treatment of cancer and noncancer risks and suggest an approach for reaching this goal.

Notes: Experimental animal studies often serve as the basis for predicting risk of adverse responses in humans exposed to occupational hazards. A statistical model is applied to exposure-response data and this fitted model may be used to obtain estimates of the exposure associated with a specified level of adverse response. Unfortunately, a number of different statistical models are candidates for fitting the data and may result in wide ranging estimates of risk. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) offers a strategy for addressing uncertainty in the selection of statistical models when generating risk estimates. This strategy is illustrated with two examples: applying the multistage model to cancer responses and a second example where different quantal models are fit to kidney lesion data. BMA provides excess risk estimates or benchmark dose estimates that reflects model uncertainty.

Notes: Following a comprehensive evaluation of the health risks of radon, the U.S. National Research Council (US-NRC) concluded that the radon inside the homes of U.S. residents is an important cause of lung cancer. To assess lung cancer risks associated with radon exposure in Canadian homes, we apply the new (US-NRC) techniques, tailoring assumptions to the Canadian context. A two-dimensional uncertainty analysis is used to provide both population-based (population attributable risk, PAR; excess lifetime risk ratio, ELRR; and life-years lost, LYL) and individual-based (ELRR and LYL) estimates. Our primary results obtained for the Canadian population reveal mean estimates for ELRR, PAR, and LYL are 0.08, 8%, and 0.10 years, respectively. Results are also available and stratified by smoking status (ever versus never). Conveniently, the three indices (ELRR, PAR, and LYL) reveal similar output uncertainty (geometric standard deviation, GSD ≈ 1.3), and in the case of ELRR and LYL, comparable variability and uncertainty combined (GSD ≈ 4.2). Simplifying relationships are identified between ELRR, LYL, PAR, and the age-specific excess rate ratio (ERR), which suggest a way to scale results from one population to another. This insight is applied in scaling our baseline results to obtain gender-specific estimates, as well as in simplifying and illuminating sensitivity analysis.

Notes: Air pollution is a current and growing concern for Canadians, and there is evidence that ambient levels that meet current exposure standards may be associated with mortality and morbidity in Toronto, Canada. Evaluating exposure is an important step in understanding the relationship between particulate matter (PM) exposure and health outcomes. This report describes the PEARLS model (Particulate Exposure from Ambient to Regional Lung by Subgroup), which predicts exposure distributions for 11 age-gender population subgroups in Toronto to PM2.5 (PM with a median aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less) using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The model uses physiological and activity pattern characteristics of each subgroup to determine region-specific lung exposure to PM2.5, which is defined as the mass of PM2.5 deposited per unit time to each of five lung regions (two extrathoracic, bronchial, bronchiolar, and alveolar). The modeling results predict that children, toddlers, and infants have the broadest distributions of exposure, and the greatest chance of experiencing extreme exposures in the alveolar region of the lung. Importance analysis indicates that the most influential model variables are air exchange rate into indoor environments, time spent outdoors, and time spent at high activity levels. Additionally, a “critical point” was defined and introduced to the PEARLS to investigate the effects of possible threshold-pathogenic phenomena on subgroup exposure patterns. The analysis indicates that the subgroups initially predicted to be most highly exposed were likely to have the highest proportion of their population exposed above the critical point. Substantial exposures above the critical point were predicted in all subgroups for ambient concentrations of PM2.5 commonly observed in Toronto after continuous exposure of 24 hours or more.

Notes: It has been shown that bathroom-type water uses dominate personal exposure to water-borne contaminants in the home. Therefore, in assessing exposure of specific population groups to the contaminants in the water, understanding population water-use behavior for bathroom activities as a function of demographic characteristics is vital to realistic exposure estimates. In this article, shower and bath frequencies and durations are analyzed, presented, and compared for various demographic groups derived from analyses of the National Human Activities Pattern Survey (NHAPS) database and the Residential End Uses of Water Study (REUWS) database as well as from a review of current literature. Analysis showed that age and level of education significantly influenced shower and bath frequency and duration. The frequency of showering and bathing reported in NHAPS agreed reasonably well with previous studies; however, durations of these events were found to be significantly longer. Showering frequency reported in REUWS was slightly less than that reported for NHAPS; however, durations of showers reported in REUWS are consistent with other studies. After considering the strengths and weaknesses of each data set and comparing their results to previous studies, it is concluded that NHAPS provides more reliable frequency data, while REUWS provides more reliable duration data. The shower- and bath-use behavior parameters recommended in this article can aid modelers in appropriately specifying water-use behavior as a function of demographic group in order to conduct reasonable assessments of exposure to contaminants that enter the home via the water supply.

Notes: Information about two uncertainties is superadditive in value if the value of information for resolving both uncertainties together exceeds the sum of the value of information for resolving each uncertainty alone. For the two-act linear loss decision problem with normal priors, conditions are derived for which the expected value of perfect information about two independent risks is superadditive. An approximate condition is also presented. The level of additivity of information value has implications for how risk-management resources should be allocated to acquisition of information. Several applications show how a variety of decision problems can reduce to the basic problem, and how the general results obtained here can be translated simply to prescriptions for specific situations.

Notes: Reference values, including an oral reference dose (RfD) and an inhalation reference concentration (RfC), were derived for propylene glycol methyl ether (PGME), and an oral RfD was derived for its acetate (PGMEA). These values were based on transient sedation observed in F344 rats and B6C3F1 mice during a two-year inhalation study. The dose-response relationship for sedation was characterized using internal dose measures as predicted by a physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for PGME and its acetate. PBPK modeling was used to account for changes in rodent physiology and metabolism due to aging and adaptation, based on data collected during Weeks 1, 2, 26, 52, and 78 of a chronic inhalation study. The peak concentration of PGME in richly perfused tissues (i.e., brain) was selected as the most appropriate internal dose measure based on a consideration of the mode of action for sedation and similarities in tissue partitioning between brain and other richly perfused tissues. Internal doses (peak tissue concentrations of PGME) were designated as either no-observed-adverse-effect levels (NOAELs) or lowest-observed-adverse-effect levels (LOAELs) based on the presence or the absence of sedation at each time point, species, and sex in the two-year study. Distributions of the NOAEL and LOAEL values expressed in terms of internal dose were characterized using an arithmetic mean and standard deviation, with the mean internal NOAEL serving as the basis for the reference values, which was then divided by appropriate uncertainty factors. Where data were permitting, chemical-specific adjustment factors were derived to replace default uncertainty factor values of 10. Nonlinear kinetics, which was predicted by the model in all species at PGME concentrations exceeding 100 ppm, complicate interspecies, and low-dose extrapolations. To address this complication, reference values were derived using two approaches that differ with respect to the order in which these extrapolations were performed: (1) default approach of interspecies extrapolation to determine the human equivalent concentration (PBPK modeling) followed by uncertainty factor application, and (2) uncertainty factor application followed by interspecies extrapolation (PBPK modeling). The resulting reference values for these two approaches are substantially different, with values from the latter approach being seven-fold higher than those from the former approach. Such a striking difference between the two approaches reveals an underlying issue that has received little attention in the literature regarding the application of uncertainty factors and interspecies extrapolations to compounds where saturable kinetics occur in the range of the NOAEL. Until such discussions have taken place, reference values based on the former approach are recommended for risk assessments involving human exposures to PGME and PGMEA.

Notes: In the process of screening a soil against a certain contaminant, we define the health-risk-based preliminary remediation goal (PRG) as the contaminant concentration above which some remedial action may be required. Thus, PRG is the first standard (or guidance) for judging a site. An overestimated PRG (a too-large value) may cause us to miss some contaminated sites that can threaten human health and the environment. An underestimated PRG (a too-small value), on the other hand, may lead to unnecessary cleanup and waste tremendous resources. The PRGs for soils are often calculated on the assumption that the contaminant concentration in soil does not change with time. However, that concentration usually decreases with time as a result of different chemical and transport mechanisms. The static assumption thus exaggerates the long-term exposure dose and results in a too-small PRG. We present a box model that considers all important transport processes and obeys the law of mass conservation. We can use the model as a tool to estimate the transient contaminant concentrations in air, soil, and ground water. Using these concentrations in conjunction with appropriate health-risk parameters, we may estimate the PRGs for different contaminants. As an example, we calculated the tritium PRG for residential soils. The result is quite different from, but within the range of, the two versions of the corresponding PRG previously recommended by the U.S. EPA.

Notes: The extreme importance of critical infrastructures to modern society is widely recognized. These infrastructures are complex and interdependent. Protecting the critical infrastructures from terrorism presents an enormous challenge. Recognizing that society cannot afford the costs associated with absolute protection, it is necessary to identify and prioritize the vulnerabilities in these infrastructures. This article presents a methodology for the identification and prioritization of vulnerabilities in infrastructures. We model the infrastructures as interconnected digraphs and employ graph theory to identify the candidate vulnerable scenarios. These scenarios are screened for the susceptibility of their elements to a terrorist attack, and a prioritized list of vulnerabilities is produced. The prioritization methodology is based on multiattribute utility theory. The impact of losing infrastructure services is evaluated using a value tree that reflects the perceptions and values of the decisionmaker and the relevant stakeholders. These results, which are conditional on a specified threat, are provided to the decisionmaker for use in risk management. The methodology is illustrated through the presentation of a portion of the analysis conducted on the campus of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Notes: This study assesses the fire safety risks associated with compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicle systems, comprising primarily a typical school bus and supporting fuel infrastructure. The study determines the sensitivity of the results to variations in component failure rates and consequences of fire events. The components and subsystems that contribute most to fire safety risk are determined. Finally, the results are compared to fire risks of the present generation of diesel-fueled school buses. Direct computation of the safety risks associated with diesel-powered vehicles is possible because these are mature technologies for which historical performance data are available. Because of limited experience, fatal accident data for CNG bus fleets are minimal. Therefore, this study uses the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach to model and predict fire safety risk of CNG buses. Generic failure data, engineering judgments, and assumptions are used in this study. This study predicts the mean fire fatality risk for typical CNG buses as approximately 0.23 fatalities per 100-million miles for all people involved, including bus passengers. The study estimates mean values of 0.16 fatalities per 100-million miles for bus passengers only. Based on historical data, diesel school bus mean fire fatality risk is 0.091 and 0.0007 per 100-million miles for all people and bus passengers, respectively. One can therefore conclude that CNG buses are more prone to fire fatality risk by 2.5 times that of diesel buses, with the bus passengers being more at risk by over two orders of magnitude. The study estimates a mean fire risk frequency of 2.2 × 10−5 fatalities/bus per year. The 5% and 95% uncertainty bounds are 9.1 × 10−6 and 4.0 × 10−5, respectively. The risk result was found to be affected most by failure rates of pressure relief valves, CNG cylinders, and fuel piping.

Notes: Laypeople's perceptions of health and safety risks have been widely studied, but only a few studies have addressed perceptions of ecological hazards. We assembled a list of 39 attributes of ecological hazards from the literatures on comparative risk assessment, ecological health, environmental conservation and management, environmental psychology, and risk perception. In Study 1, 125 laypeople evaluated 83 hazards on subsets of this attribute set. Factor analysis of attribute ratings (averaged over participants) revealed six oblique factors: ecological impacts, human impacts, human benefits, aesthetic impacts, scientific understanding, and controllability. These factors predicted mean judgments of overall riskiness, ecological riskiness, acceptability, and regulatory strictness. In Study 2, 30 laypeople each evaluated 34 hazards on 17 attributes and 3 dependent variables. Aggregate-level factor analysis of these data replicated the appropriate portion of the factor solution and yielded similar regression results. Parallel analyses at the individual-participant level yielded factors that explained less variance in judgments of overall riskiness, ecological riskiness, and acceptability. However, the decrease in explanatory power was much less than is often reported for disaggregate-level analyses of psychometric data. This discrepancy illustrates the importance of distinguishing between the level of analysis (aggregate versus disaggregate) and the focus of analysis (distinctions among hazards versus distinctions among participants). In a hybrid analysis, aggregate-level factor scores predicted individual participants' riskiness judgments reasonably well. Psychometric studies such as these provide a sound empirical basis for selecting attributes of ecological hazards for use in comparative risk assessment.

Notes: Government and private sector organizations are increasingly turning to the use of maps and other visual models to provide a depiction of environmental hazards and the potential risks they represent to humans and ecosystems. Frequently, the graphic presentation is tailored to address a specific contaminant, its location and possible exposure pathways, and potential receptors. Its format is usually driven by the data available, choice of graphics technology, and the audience being served. A format that is effective for displaying one contaminant at one scale at one site, however, may be ineffective in accurately portraying the circumstances surrounding a different contaminant at the same site, or the same contaminant at a different site, because of limitations in available data or the graphics technology being used. This is the daunting challenge facing the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), which is responsible for the nation's legacy wastes from nuclear weapons research, testing, and production at over 100 sites in the United States. In this article, we discuss the development and use of integrated geospatial mapping and conceptual site models to identify hazards and evaluate alternative long-term environmental clean-up strategies at DOE sites located across the United States. While the DOE probably has the greatest need for such information, the Department of Defense and other public and private responsible parties for many large and controversial National Priority List or Superfund sites would benefit from a similar approach.

Notes: The research team interviewed over 90 Finnish battalion members in Kosovo, visited 22 units or posts, registered its observations, and made any necessary measurements. Key persons were asked to list the most important risks for occupational safety and health in their area of responsibility. Altogether, 106 accidents and 40 cases of disease resulted in compensation claims in 2000. The risks to the peacekeeping force were about twice those of the permanent staff of military trainees in Finland. Altogether, 21 accidents or cases of disease resulted in sick leave for at least 3 months after service. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion. Biological, chemical, and physical factors caused 8 to 9 occupational illnesses each. Traffic accidents, operational factors, and munitions and mines were evaluated to be the three most important risk factors, followed by occupational hygiene, living conditions (mold, fungi, dust), and general hygiene. Possible fatal risks, such as traffic accidents and munitions and explosives, received a high ranking in both the subjective and the objective evaluations. One permanent injury resulted from an explosion, and two traffic accidents involved a fatality, although not of a peacekeeper. The reduction of sports and military training accidents, risk-control programs, and, for some tasks, better personal protection is considered a development challenge for the near future.

Notes: The aim of this study was to determine the impact on risk perceptions of disclosing genetic test results used to estimate the risk of Alzheimer's disease (AD). Adult children (n= 149) of people with AD were randomized to one of two groups—Intervention group: lifetime risk estimates of AD based on age, gender, family history, and Apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype; Control group: lifetime risk estimates of AD based on the same risk factors excluding APOE genotype. Perceptions of personal risk (PPR) for AD were assessed six weeks after risk assessments. PPR were correlated with actual lifetime risk estimates (r= 0.501; p 〈 0.0001). After controlling for lifetime risks communicated to participants, age, and number of affected relatives, PPR scores among those with an ɛ4-positive test result (the test result associated with increased AD susceptibility) (adjusted mean: 3.4 (SD: 0.7)) were not different from the PPR scores in the Control group (adjusted mean: 3.4 (SD: 0.7) (F(1,91)= 1.98; p= 0.162). Again, controlling for lifetime risk estimates, age, and number of affected relatives, the PPR score of those receiving an ɛ4-negative test result was significantly lower (adjusted mean: 3.1 (SD: 0.8)) than those in the Control group (adjusted mean: 3.4 (SD: 0.7) (F(1,95)= 6.23; p= 0.014). Perceptions of risk of developing AD are influenced by genetic test disclosure in those receiving ɛ4-negative, but not those receiving ɛ4-positive test results. Despite the reduced perceptions of risk in the former group, there was no evidence of false reassurance (i.e., perceiving risks as equal to or lower than population risks of AD), although this possibility should be assessed in other testing contexts.

Notes: Society often sets social standards that define thresholds of damage to society or the environment above which compensation must be paid to the state or other parties. In this article, we analyze the interdependence between the use of social standards and investment evaluation under dynamic uncertainty where a negative externality above a threshold established by society requires an assessment and payment of damages. Under uncertainty, the party considering implementing a project or new technology must not only assess when the project is economically efficient to implement but when to abandon a project that could potentially exceed the social standard. Using real-option theory and simple models, we demonstrate how such a social standard can be integrated into cost-benefit analysis through the use of a development option and a liability option coupled with a damage function. Uncertainty, in fact, implies that both parties interpret the social standard as a target for safety rather than an inflexible barrier that cannot be overcome. The larger is the uncertainty, in fact, the greater will be the tolerance for damages in excess of the social standard from both parties.

Notes: There is increasing interest in being able to express the consequences of exposure to potentially toxic compounds in monetary terms in order to evaluate potential cost-benefit relationships of controlling exposure. Behavioral effects of acute toluene exposure could be subjected to cost-benefit analysis if the effects of toluene were quantitatively compared to those of ethanol ingestion, which has been monetized for applied contexts. Behavioral effects of toluene and ethanol were quantified by meta-analysis of studies from the peer-reviewed literature describing their effects on choice reaction time (reaction time in a test requiring a subject to choose among two or more alternatives before responding). The internal doses of these compounds were estimated by a general physiological and toxicokinetic (GPAT) simulation from exposure parameters provided in the reports. The reported effects were converted to a common metric (proportion of baseline) and related to the estimated internal doses of toluene and ethanol, from which dose-effect equations were fitted. The estimated effect of toluene was compared to the estimated effect of ethanol on the same dependent variable by deriving a dose-equivalence equation (DEE) to express the dose of toluene as an equivalent dose of ethanol on the basis of equal effect magnitude. A nomogram was constructed by GPAT simulation to relate the environmental exposure concentration of toluene to the equivalent effect magnitude of a range of ethanol internal doses. Behavioral effects and their evaluation are determined by internal doses, which in turn are determined by a variety of variables. In addition to concentration and duration of exposure, which determine internal dose by pharmacokinetic processes, the activity level of exposed persons is a major factor. This analysis provides a continuous function of the consequences of toluene exposure expressed as ethanol-equivalent doses within confidence limits. The resulting function has the potential to estimate the monetary values of behavioral deficits caused by a range of exposures to toluene from existing monetized information on ethanol.

Notes: Clostridium perfringens is a pathogen that mainly causes food poisoning outbreaks when large quantities of food are prepared. Therefore, a model was developed to predict the effect of different cooling procedures on the growth of this pathogen during cooling of food: Dutch pea soup. First, a growth rate model based on interpretable parameters was used to predict growth during linear cooling of pea soup. Second, a temperature model for cooling pea soup was constructed by fitting the model to experimental data published earlier. This cooling model was used to estimate the effect of various cooling environments on average cooling times, taking into account the effect of stirring and product volume. The growth model systematically overestimated growth of C. perfringens during cooling in air, but this effect was limited to less than 0.5 log N/ml and this was considered to be acceptable for practical purposes. It was demonstrated that the growth model for C. perfringens combined with the cooling model for pea soup could be used to sufficiently predict growth of C. perfringens in different volume sizes of pea soup during cooling in air as well as the effect of stirring, different cooling temperatures, and various cooling environments on the growth of C. perfringens in pea soup. Although fine-tuning may be needed to eliminate inaccuracies, it was concluded that the combined model could be a useful tool for designing good manufacturing practices (GMP) procedures.

Notes: The management of microbial risk in food products requires the ability to predict growth kinetics of pathogenic microorganisms in the event of contamination and growth initiation. Useful data for assessing these issues may be found in the literature or from experimental results. However, the large number and variety of data make further development difficult. Statistical techniques, such as meta-analysis, are then useful to realize synthesis of a set of distinct but similar experiences. Moreover, predictive modeling tools can be employed to complete the analysis and help the food safety manager to interpret the data. In this article, a protocol to perform a meta-analysis of the outcome of a relational database, associated with quantitative microbiology models, is presented. The methodology is illustrated with the effect of temperature on pathogenic Escherichia coli and Listeria monocytogenes, growing in culture medium, beef meat, and milk products. Using a database and predictive models, simulations of growth in a given product subjected to various temperature scenarios can be produced. It is then possible to compare food products for a given microorganism, according to its growth ability in these products, and to compare the behavior of bacteria in a given foodstuff. These results can assist decisions for a variety of questions on food safety.

Notes: The uncertainty associated with estimates should be taken into account in quantitative risk assessment. Each input's uncertainty can be characterized through a probabilistic distribution for use under Monte Carlo simulations. In this study, the sampling uncertainty associated with estimating a low proportion on the basis of a small sample size was considered. A common application in microbial risk assessment is the estimation of a prevalence, proportion of contaminated food products, on the basis of few tested units. Three Bayesian approaches (based on beta(0, 0), beta 〈inlineGraphic alt="inline image" href="urn:x-wiley:02724332:RISA565:RISA_565_mu1" location="equation/RISA_565_mu1.gif"/〉, and beta(l, 1)) and one frequentist approach (based on the frequentist confidence distribution) were compared and evaluated on the basis of simulations. For small samples, we demonstrated some differences between the four tested methods. We concluded that the better method depends on the true proportion of contaminated products, which is by definition unknown in common practice. When no prior information is available, we recommend the beta 〈inlineGraphic alt="inline image" href="urn:x-wiley:02724332:RISA565:RISA_565_mu2" location="equation/RISA_565_mu2.gif"/〉 prior or the confidence distribution. To illustrate the importance of these differences, the four methods were used in an applied example. We performed two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the proportion of cold smoked salmon packs contaminated by Listeria monocytogenes, one dimension representing within-factory uncertainty, modeled by each of the four studied methods, and the other dimension representing variability between companies.

Notes: A poultry-processing model for a quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) of campylobacter is presented, which can also be applied to other QMRAs involving poultry processing. The same basic model is applied in each consecutive stage of industrial processing. It describes the effects of inactivation and removal of the bacteria, and the dynamics of cross-contamination in terms of the transfer of campylobacter from the intestines to the carcass surface and the environment, from the carcasses to the environment, and from the environment to the carcasses. From the model it can be derived that, in general, the effect of inactivation and removal is dominant for those carcasses with high initial bacterial loads, and cross-contamination is dominant for those with low initial levels. In other QMRA poultry-processing models, the input-output relationship between the numbers of bacteria on the carcasses is usually assumed to be linear on a logarithmic scale. By including some basic mechanistics, it is shown that this may not be realistic. As nonlinear behavior may affect the predicted effects of risk mitigations; this finding is relevant for risk management. Good knowledge of the variability of bacterial loads on poultry entering the process is important. The common practice in microbiology to only present geometric mean of bacterial counts is insufficient: arithmetic mean are more suitable, in particular, to describe the effect of cross-contamination. The effects of logistic slaughter (scheduled processing) as a risk mitigation strategy are predicted to be small. Some additional complications in applying microbiological data obtained in processing plants are discussed.

Notes: A linear population risk model used by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Center for Veterinary Medicine (CVM) estimates the risk of human cases of campylobacteriosis caused by fluoroquinolone-resistant Campylobacter. Among the cases of campylobacteriosis attributed to domestically produced chicken, the fluoroquinolone resistance is assumed to result from the use of fluoroquinolones in poultry in the United States. Properties of the linear population risk model are contrasted with those of a farm-to-fork model commonly used for microbial risk assessments. The utility of the linear population model for the purpose for which it was used by CVM is discussed.

Notes: A mathematical model is presented, which addresses individual hygiene practices during food preparation and consumption patterns in private homes. Further, the model links food preparers and consumers based on their relationship to household types. For different age and gender groups, the model estimates (i) the probability of ingesting a meal where precautions have not been taken to avoid the transfer of microorganisms from raw food to final meal (a risk meal), exemplified by the event that the cutting board was not washed during food preparation, and (ii) the probability of ingesting a risk meal in a private home, where chicken was the prepared food item (a chicken risk meal). Chicken was included in the model, as chickens are believed to be the major source of human exposure to the foodborne pathogen Campylobacter. Monte Carlo simulations showed that the probability of ingesting a risk meal was highest for young males (aged 18–29 years) and lowest for the elderly above 60 years of age. Children aged 0–4 years had a higher probability of ingesting a risk meal than children aged 5–17 years. This difference between age and gender groups was ascribed to the variations in the hygiene levels of food preparers. By including the probability of ingesting a chicken meal at home, simulations revealed that all age groups, except the group above 60 years of age, had approximately the same probability of ingesting a chicken risk meal, the probability of females being slightly higher than that of males. The simulated results show that the probability of ingesting a chicken risk meal at home does not only depend on the hygiene practices of the persons preparing the food, but also on the consumption patterns of consumers, and the relationship between people preparing and ingesting food. This finding supports the need of including information on consumer behavior and preparation hygiene in the consumer phase of exposure assessments.

Notes: High erosion potential of dewatered kimberlite mine tailings after diamond extraction has prompted research at the Ekati Diamond Mine in the Canadian subarctic heath tundra ecosystem. Greenhouse and field studies aimed at establishing a permanent vegetation cover on these dewatered tailings began in spring 2000. Coarse texture, no organic component, lack of available macronutrients, and a serpentine chemistry are the principal limitations of kimberlite tailings to plant colonization. Structure-improving (peat moss, lake sediment, and sewage sludge) and nutrient-providing (fertilizer, rock phosphate, calcium carbonate, and gypsum) amendments were tested to ameliorate these conditions, facilitating the establishment of a permanent vegetation cover, which stabilizes surface materials and promotes natural colonization by the surrounding tundra vegetation. Seven native grass species (Arctagrostis latifolia, Calamagrostis canadensis, Poa glauca, Poa alpina, Deschampsia beringensis, Deschampsia caespitosa, and Festuca rubra) were used to measure amendment success. With the addition of structure-improving and nutrient-providing amendments, plant growth on these kimberlite tailings under field conditions was significantly improved over unamended tailings material. Tailings properties, including cation exchange capacity, organic carbon, and macronutrient availability, were also improved with amendment addition.

Notes: Reclaimed landscapes after oil sands mining have saline soils; yet, they are required to have similar biodiversity and productivity as the predisturbance nonsaline landscape. Given that many species in the boreal forest are not tolerant of salinity, we studied the effects of soil salinity on plant communities in natural saline landscapes to understand potential plant responses during the reclamation process. Vegetation–soil relationships were measured along transects from flooded wetlands to upland forest vegetation in strongly saline, slightly saline, nonsaline, and reclaimed boreal landscapes. In strongly saline landscapes, surface soil salinity was high (〉10 dS/m) in flooded, wet-meadow, and dry-meadow vegetation zones as compared to slightly saline (〈5 dS/m) and nonsaline (〈2 dS/m) landscapes. Plant communities in these vegetation zones were quite different from nonsaline boreal landscapes and were dominated by halophytes common to saline habitats of the Great Plains. In the shrub and forest vegetation zones, surface soil salinity was similar between saline and nonsaline landscapes, resulting in similar plant communities. In strongly saline landscapes, soils remained saline at depth through the shrub and forest vegetation zones (〉10 dS/m), suggesting that forest vegetation can establish over saline soils as long as the salts are below the rooting zone. The reclaimed landscape was intermediate between slightly saline and nonsaline landscapes in terms of soil salinity but more similar to nonsaline habitats with respect to species composition. Results from this study suggest it may be unrealistic to expect that plant communities similar to those found on the predisturbance landscape can be established on all reclaimed landscapes after oil sands mining.

Notes: High coral cover and topographic complexity are favorable qualities of a healthy coral reef. Because coral reef restoration is expensive and coral growth is naturally slow, there is a need to strategically arrange coral transplants to maximize coral cover and topographic complexity. Similarly, it is important to understand how differences in the life history characteristics of coral transplants can influence changes in the structural attributes of coral reefs. This study utilizes agent-based computer modeling to explore the different spatial scenarios of coral transplantation using corals with contrasting r- and K-selected life histories. Spatial indexes are used to compare coral cover and topographic complexity at incremental time scales, within which disturbance events are of minor importance in spatial structuring. The outcomes of the model suggest that even-spaced grided transplanting arrangements provide the fastest increase in coral cover and three-dimensional habitat space (topographic complexity) across large temporal scales (〈30 years) for corals with r-selected life history strategies.

Notes: A commonly cited mechanism for invasion resistance is more complete resource use by diverse plant assemblages with maximum niche complementarity. We investigated the invasion resistance of several plant functional groups against the nonindigenous forb Spotted knapweed (Centaurea maculosa). The study consisted of a factorial combination of seven functional group removals (groups singularly or in combination) and two C. maculosa treatments (addition vs. no addition) applied in a randomized complete block design replicated four times at each of two sites. We quantified aboveground plant material nutrient concentration and uptake (concentration × biomass) by indigenous functional groups: grasses, shallow-rooted forbs, deep-rooted forbs, spikemoss, and the nonindigenous invader C. maculosa. In 2001, C. maculosa density depended upon which functional groups were removed. The highest C. maculosa densities occurred where all vegetation or all forbs were removed. Centaurea maculosa densities were the lowest in plots where nothing, shallow-rooted forbs, deep-rooted forbs, grasses, or spikemoss were removed. Functional group biomass was also collected and analyzed for nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, and sulphur. Based on covariate analyses, postremoval indigenous plot biomass did not relate to invasion by C. maculosa. Analysis of variance indicated that C. maculosa tissue nutrient percentage and net nutrient uptake were most similar to indigenous forb functional groups. Our study suggests that establishing and maintaining a diversity of plant functional groups within the plant community enhances resistance to invasion. Indigenous plants of functionally similar groups as an invader may be particularly important in invasion resistance.

Notes: Effects of flooding on survival and growth of three different types of Nuttall oak (Quercus texana Buckl.) seedlings were observed at the end of third and fifth growing seasons at Yazoo National Wildlife Refuge, Mississippi, U.S.A. Three types of seedlings were planted in January 1995 in a split-plot design, with four replications at each of two elevations on floodprone, former cropland in Sharkey clay soil. The lower of the two planting elevations was inundated for 21 days during the first growing season, whereas the higher elevation did not flood during the 5-year period of this study. The three types of 1-0 seedlings were bareroot seedlings, seedlings grown in containers (3.8 × 21–cm plastic seedling cones), and container-grown seedlings inoculated with vegetative mycelia of Pisolithus tinctorius (Pers.) Coker. Survival of all the three seedling types was greatest at the lower, intermittently flooded elevation, indicating that drought and related effects on plant competition were more limiting to seedling survival than flooding. At the lower elevation, survival of mycorrhizal-inoculated container seedlings was greater than that of noninoculated container seedlings. Survival among bareroot seedlings and inoculated container seedlings was not significantly different at either elevation. At the higher, nonflooded elevation, however, bareroot seedling survival was greater than the survival of container seedlings without inoculation. Differences were significant among the inoculated and the noninoculated container seedlings, with higher survival of inoculated seedlings at both elevations, though differences were only significant in year 3. At the end of the fifth year, height of bareroot seedlings was significantly greater than the heights of both types of container-grown seedlings at both planting elevations. Because seedlings grown in the plastic seedlings cones did not survive better than the bareroot seedlings at either planting elevation, the bareroot stock appear to be the economically superior choice for regeneration in Sharkey soil.

Notes: To restore diversity of native vegetation, we must understand factors responsible for diversity in targeted communities. These factors operate at different spatial scales and may affect the number and relative abundances of species differently. We measured diversity of plant species and functional groups of species in replicated plots within paired restored and remnant (relic) tallgrass prairies at three locations in central Texas, U.S.A. To determine the contributions of species abundances and of spatial patterns of diversity to differences between prairie types, we separated diversity into richness and evenness (relative biomass) and into within-plot (α), among-plot (β), and prairie (γ) components. Species diversity was greater in remnant than in restored prairies at all spatial scales. At the γ scale, both species richness and species evenness were greater in remnants because of greater spatial variation in species composition. At the α scale, remnants were more diverse because of greater richness alone. Mean α richness correlated positively with the size of the species pool in restored prairies only, implying that in remnants, α richness was influenced more by colonization dynamics than by the number of species available for colonization. Plots in remnant prairies contained more functional groups and fewer species per group than did plots in restored prairies, suggesting that resource partitioning was greater in relic prairies. Our results are consistent with the interpretation that local ecological processes, like resource partitioning and limitations on seed dispersal, contribute to the greater diversity of remnant than restored prairies in central Texas. Restoration practices that limit abundances of competitive dominants, increase the number of species in seed mixtures, and increase the proximity of plants of different functional groups thus may be required to better simulate the plant diversity of tallgrass prairies.

Notes: Microtopography is a characteristic feature of many natural wetlands that is commonly lacking in restored wetlands (RWs). Consequently, it has been suggested that microtopography must be reestablished in RWs to accelerate the development of wetland function. The objective of this research was to examine responses of hydrology, soils, and vegetation to microtopographic reestablishment at a 3-year-old RW site in North Carolina. Microtopography was reestablished by configuring hummocks (mounds) and hollows (depressions), on otherwise level terrain (flats) of intermediate elevation. For most of the 2003 growing season, mean water table depths were below the soil surface in the flats and 10 cm above the soil surface in the hollows. Analysis of variance revealed significant microtopography by time interactions for soil temperature (p 〈 0.05) and moisture (p 〈 0.001), indicating that differences between zones were not consistent throughout the growing season. Hummocks had significantly higher nitrate (p 〈 0.0001) and ammonium (p= 0.001) than flats and hollows for most of the growing season. Differences in microbial biomass carbon and denitrification enzyme activity across the microtopographic zones were not detected. Plant species richness was significantly different (p 〈 0.001) across the microtopographic zones, with hummocks 〈 hollows 〈 flats. Flats supported the greatest numbers of wetland species. Aboveground biomass differed significantly (p 〈 0.001) across the microtopographic zones and followed a different pattern than richness: hummocks 〈 flats 〈 hollows, owing to the growth of emergent wetland herbs in hollows.

Notes: Biologically rich savannas and woodlands dominated by Pinus palustris once dominated the southeastern U.S. landscape. With European settlement, fire suppression, and landscape fragmentation, this ecosystem has been reduced in area by 97%. Half of remnant forests are not burned with sufficient frequency, leading to declines in plant and animal species richness. For these fire-suppressed ecosystems a major regional conservation goal has been ecological restoration, primarily through the reinitiation of historic fire regimes. Unfortunately, fire reintroduction in long-unburned Longleaf pine stands can have novel, undesirable effects. We review case studies of Longleaf pine ecosystem restoration, highlighting novel fire behavior, patterns of tree mortality, and unintended outcomes resulting from reintroduction of fire. Many of these pineland restoration efforts have resulted in excessive overstory pine mortality (often 〉50%) and produced substantial quantities of noxious smoke. The most compelling mechanisms of high tree mortality after reintroduction of fire are related to smoldering combustion of surface layers of organic matter (duff) around the bases of old pines. Development of effective methods to reduce fuels and competing vegetation while encouraging native vegetation is a restoration challenge common to fire-prone ecosystems worldwide that will require understanding of the responses of altered ecosystems to the resumption of historically natural disturbances.

Notes: Recurrent fires are integral to the function of many ecosystems worldwide. The management of fire-frequented ecosystems requires the application of fire at the appropriate frequency and seasonality, but establishing the natural fire regime for an ecosystem can be problematic. Historical records of fires are often not available, and surrogates for past fires may not exist. We suggest that the relationship between climate and fire can provide an alternative means for inferring past fire regimes in some ecosystems.

Notes: Prescribed burning is an important tool for managing and restoring prairies and other ecosystems. One effect of fire is plant litter removal, which can influence seedling establishment. Four experimental treatments (burned, clipped and raked to remove litter, burned with litter reapplied, and unmanipulated) were applied to 2 × 2.5–m plots in three western Oregon, United States, upland prairies to determine how burning affects seedling establishment. Seeds of common exotic and native prairie species were sowed into the experimental plots after treatments. Seedlings were censused the following spring. The experiment was repeated on each of the three sites, representing three common types of prairie vegetation: an Annual Exotic Grass site, a Perennial Exotic Grass site, and a Native Bunchgrass site. In both the Annual Exotic Grass and the Perennial Exotic Grass sites, burning significantly improved native, but not exotic, seedling establishment over those on unburned plots. Litter removal was a significant component of this burn effect, particularly on the Perennial Exotic Grass site. In these winter-moist systems, the net effect of litter is to inhibit seedling establishment. Burning treatments on the Native Bunchgrass site significantly increased seedling establishment only of short-lived exotic species. These results suggest that in prairie ecosystems similar to the Annual and Perennial Exotic Grass sites, prescribed burning followed by sowing native seeds can be an effective restoration technique. Burning alone or sowing alone would be counter-productive, in the first case because increased establishment would come from exotic species and in the second case because establishment rates are low in unburned plots.

Notes: Food web management is a frequently used lake restoration method, which aims to reduce phytoplankton biomass by strengthening herbivorous zooplankton through reduction of planktivorous fish. However, in clay-turbid lakes several factors may reduce the effectivity of food web management. Increasing turbidity reduces the effectivity of fish predation and weakens the link between zooplankton and phytoplankton. Therefore, the effects of fish stock manipulations may not cascade to lower trophic levels as expected. Additionally, in clay-turbid conditions invertebrate predators may coexist in high densities with planktivorous fish and negate the effects of fish reductions. For instance, in the stratifying regions of the clay-turbid Lake Hiidenvesi, Chaoborus flavicans is the main regulator of cladocerans and occupies the water column throughout the day, although planktivorous Osmerus eperlanus is very abundant. The coexistence of chaoborids and fish is facilitated by a metalimnetic turbidity peak, which prevents efficient predation by fish. In the shallow parts of the lake, chaoborids are absent despite high water turbidity. We suggest that, generally, the importance of invertebrate predators in relation to vertebrate predators may change along turbidity and depth gradients. The importance of fish predation is highest in shallow waters with low turbidity. When water depth increases, the importance of fish in the top-down regulation of zooplankton declines, whereas that of chaoborids increases, the change along the depth gradient being moderate in clear-water lakes and steep in highly turbid lakes. Thus, especially deep clay-turbid lakes may be problematic for implementing food web management as a restoration tool.

Notes: The rehabilitation of disturbed ecosystems through ecological succession should lead to the recovery of indigenous biological assemblages typical of a region. However, rehabilitation may give rise to unusual successional pathways and lead to atypical assemblages. We compared millipede assemblages along a chronosequence of habitats developing in response to a post-mining coastal dune forest rehabilitation program with those developing spontaneously in the same area. Our comparison suggests that active rehabilitation mimics and even surpasses spontaneous successional development. On both chronosequences, the total number of species, as well as the mean density, diversity, and species richness increased, and dominance decreased, with habitat regeneration age. Moreover, the similarity of millipede assemblages on the two chronosequences to those on three sets of reference sites (mature forests) increased with regeneration age, but this recovery of community composition occurred faster on the rehabilitating chronosequence than on the spontaneously regenerating chronosequence. This suggests that successional processes are leading to a recovery of the predisturbed state, but factors like protection from further disturbances, which occur on the spontaneously regenerating chronosequence, is probably important to ensure success. The distance between a regenerating site and a colonization source area apparently affects the direction of community recovery—assemblages on the rehabilitating chronosequence converged faster onto assemblages on closer reference sites than onto those on reference sites farther away.

Notes: Ozark glades are gaps in forested areas that are dominated by grasses and forbs growing in rocky, nutrient-poor soil. Historically, these open, patchy habitats were maintained by natural and anthropogenic fire cycles that prohibited tree encroachment. However, because of decades of fire suppression, glades have become overgrown by fire-intolerant species such as Eastern red cedar (Juniperus virginiana). Current restoration practices include cutting down invasive cedars and burning brush piles, which represent habitat for Northern fence lizards (Sceloporus undulatus). Because Sceloporus actively consumes herbivores, we hypothesized that the presence of these lizards in and around brush piles might result in a trophic cascade, whereby damage on native plants is reduced. Field surveys across six Missouri glades indicated that lizard activity was minimal beyond 1 m from habitat structures. This activity pattern reduced grasshopper abundance by 75% and plant damage by over 66% on Echinacea paradoxa and Rudbeckia missouriensis near structures with lizards. A field transplant experiment demonstrated similar reductions in grasshopper abundance and damage on two other glade endemic species, Aster oblongifolius and Schizachyrium scoparium. These results demonstrate that future glade restoration efforts might benefit from considering top-down effects of predators in facilitating native plant establishment.

Notes: We initiated a study of the effects of mycorrhizal fungal community composition on the restoration of tropical dry seasonal forest trees. Tree seedlings were planted in a severely burned experimental site (1995 fire) during the growing season of 1998 at the El Edén Ecological Reserve, in north Quintana Roo, Mexico. Seedlings of Leucaena leucocephala, Guazuma ulmifolia, Caesalpinia violacea, Piscidia piscipula, Gliricidia sepium, and Cochlospermum vitifolium were germinated in steam-sterilized soil and either remained uninoculated (nonmycorrhizal at transplanting) or were inoculated with mycorrhizal fungi in soils from early-seral (recently burned) or late-seral (mature forest) inoculum. Inoculum from the early-seral soil was largely Glomus spp., whereas a diverse community of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi were reintroduced from the mature forest including species of Scutellospora, Gigaspora, Glomus, Sclerocystis, and Acaulospora. Plants grew better when associated with the mature forest inoculum, unlike a previous experiment in which plants grew taller with the early-seral inoculum. Reasons for the different responses include a less-intense burn resulting in more residual organic matter. In addition to mycorrhizal responses, plants were severely affected by deer browsing. One tree species, C. vitifolium found in the region but not in the reserve, was eliminated by a resident fungal facultative pathogen. Several practical conclusions for restoration can be made. The common nursery practice of soil sterilization may be detrimental because it eliminates beneficial mycorrhizal fungi; species not native to the site may not survive because they may not be adapted to the local pathogens; and herbivory can be severe depending on the landscape context of the restoration.

Notes: Many wetland restoration projects occur on former agricultural soils that have a history of disturbance and fertilization, making them prone to phosphorus (P) release upon flooding. To study the relationship between P release and hydrologic regime, we collected soil cores from three restoration wetlands and three undisturbed wetlands around Upper Klamath Lake in southern Oregon, U.S.A. Soil cores were subjected to one of three hydrologic regimes—flooded, moist, and dry—for 7.5 weeks, and P fluxes were measured upon reflooding. Soils from restoration wetlands released P upon reflooding regardless of the hydrologic regime, with the greatest releases coming from soils that had been flooded or dried. Undisturbed wetland soils released P only after drying. Patterns in P release can be explained by a combination of physical and biological processes, including the release of iron-bound P due to anoxia in the flooded treatment and the mineralization of organic P under aerobic conditions in the dry treatment. Higher rates of soil P release from restoration wetland soils, particularly under flooded conditions, were associated with higher total P concentrations compared with undisturbed wetland soils. We conclude that maintaining moist soil is the means to minimize P release from recently flooded wetland soils. Alternatively, prolonged flooding provides a means of liberating excess labile P from former agricultural soils while minimizing continued organic P mineralization and soil subsidence.

Notes: Aspen is considered a keystone species, and aspen communities are critical for maintaining biodiversity in western landscapes. Inventories of aspen stand health across the Eagle Lake Ranger District (ELRD), Lassen National Forest, California, U.S.A., indicate that 77% of stands are in decline and at risk of loss as defined by almost complete loss of mature aspen with little or no regeneration. This decline is due to competition from conifers establishing within aspen stands as a result of modification of natural fire regimes coupled with excessive browsing by livestock. Restoration treatments were implemented in four aspen stands in 1999 using mechanical equipment to remove competing conifers to enhance the growth environment for aspen. Recruitment and establishment of aspen stems were measured in treated stands (removal of competing conifers) and non-treated stands (control) immediately prior to treatment and 2 and 4 years post-treatment. There was a significant increase in total aspen stem density and in two of three aspen regeneration size classes for treated stands compared to controls. Pre-treatment total aspen density was positively associated with total aspen density and density in all size classes of aspen (p 〈 0.001). The results demonstrate that mechanical removal of conifers is an effective treatment for restoring aspen.

Notes: A 40-year-old rehabilitated forest developed on a sodic wasteland at Banthra, Lucknow, north India, was studied for the performance of various species in different vegetation strata as well as their overall impact in soil amelioration. The plant communities of the three selected stands (S1, S2, and S3) of this forest were categorized into three vegetation strata: overstory trees, understory trees and shrubs, and a ground layer with scattered herbs and tree seedlings. The three stands contained 44, 19, and 8 species in each stratum, respectively, and three climber species. Importance value index (IVI) and basal area/cover did not show a clear dominance for particular species, and this is identified as a mixed forest with deciduous as well as evergreen species. Therefore, dominant species in each layer were categorized according to an IVI value of 10 and greater than 10% relative basal area. Within each stratum, species richness and plant population density decreased with an increase in plant size. Both species diversity and productivity were relatively high compared to the reference site because of protection from biotic disturbances, which cannot be controlled on the reference site. Creation of new forest on the barren land has contributed significant soil amelioration in the degraded sodic soil of the Indogangetic plains. The soil properties of the three stands did not vary much, although different tree species dominated the stands. Maximum soil amelioration was recorded for total N, followed by mineralized N, available N, and organic carbon contents for the nutritional properties. With regard to chemical properties, exchangeable sodium was greatly reduced in comparison to other properties viz pH, electrical conductivity, cation exchange capacity, and exchangeable Ca content. During 40 years of growth and development of the diverse vegetation in the revegetated forest, microbial C increased to about five times that of the surrounding barren sodic soils. There were no significant changes in soil structure even though the water-holding capacity of the soil improved to about 53% of the once barren land due to a 7-fold increase in organic carbon content.

Notes: Substrate instability is a common problem in many disturbed ecosystems. In the case of milled harvested peatlands, the pioneer moss Polytrichum strictum is commonly found; it is well adapted to tolerate the harsh microclimatic conditions and peat instability of these sites. A field experiment was used to determine the effectiveness of P. strictum against frost heaving, a major type of disturbance on bare peat. Wooden dowels and fir trees (Abies balsamea) placed in a P. strictum carpet experienced almost no frost heaving, whereas heaving was severe on bare peat. Reintroduced P. strictum fragments thinly spread on bare peat reduced but did not eliminate frost heaving. Straw mulch (a protective cover often required in peatland restoration) effectively reduced heaving in the fall, but was less effective in the spring because it had partially decomposed. The P. strictum carpet, P. strictum fragments, and straw mulch reduced frost heaving by reducing the number of freeze–thaw cycles, by slowing the rate of ground thaw in the spring, and by reducing the unfrozen water content of the peat during the spring thaw. Different species of Polytrichum mosses should be considered for the restoration or regeneration of disturbed ecosystems where soil stability is problematic.

Notes: Prescribed spring burning often contributes to a predominance of C4 grasses and low forb abundance and is impractical at many sites, especially near development. We tested raking after mowing as an alternative to prescribed burning in a reconstructed Minnesota prairie. We also tested mowing without raking as a possible means of maintaining prairie communities. Frequency, flowering stem abundance, and cover were measured for all plant species and native functional groups (C4 grasses, C3 graminoids, forbs, legumes, and annual or biennial forbs). Mowing alone did not differ from the control in its effect on any functional groups of plants. Round-headed bush clover (Lespedeza capitata), a legume, and Black-eyed Susan (Rudbeckia hirta), a biennial, increased in frequency with treatments that removed biomass (i.e., fire or raking), but they did not have significantly more flowering stems. Thus, new plants established well from seed, whereas the vitality of mature plants did not change. Raking had similar effects to burning on most functional groups, although flowering stems of C4 grasses were significantly more abundant after fire than after raking. Burning reduced some C3 forbs and grasses and favored the dominance of C4 grasses. Therefore, raking after mowing in the spring provides an alternative to prescribed burning that has many of the same positive aspects as fire but does not promote aggressive C4 grasses to the same extent.

Notes: Ecological restoration is deemed important for the long-term conservation of biodiversity, but ecologists still lack an understanding of how habitat availability and habitat quality in a restored system interact to determine species diversity. This problem seems particularly apparent in Tallgrass Prairie and savanna ecoregions, where restored management units represent the majority of extant habitat. In this study, we tested three principal hypotheses, each stating that the diversity of Lepidoptera would be greater in (1) patches of savanna habitat that were larger; (2) patches that were of higher habitat quality; and (3) patches that had greater connectivity to management units of similar physiognomy. Lepidoptera were sampled in 2003 from 13 unmanaged woodland remnants within Neal Smith National Wildlife Refuge, a 2,292-ha prairie and savanna reconstruction project. We also measured 11 environmental variables within each site to assess variation in habitat quantity and quality. Principal components analysis (PCA) was used to identify major gradients of environmental variation among the 13 sites. Our PCA differentiated among woodlands along three environmental gradients, defined by (1) stand size, shape, topography, and oak dominance; (2) degree of disturbance; and (3) isolation. Total lepidopteran species richness, however, was only predicted by variation in the first principal component. Species richness of Lepidoptera known to be oak specialists was significantly affected by variation along all three PCA gradients. Surprisingly, more isolated woodland remnants contained a greater richness of oak feeders. Our results suggest that approaches to restoring oak savannas should emphasize aspects of both habitat quantity and quality. Beyond making individual management units larger, priority sites for restoration should possess a low importance of trees that are indicative of past habitat disturbance (e.g., Honey locust, White mulberry) even if canopy closure is substantial. Connectivity among restored habitats may benefit savanna moth communities only when habitat linkages contain a flora similar in composition to focal patches.

Notes: The effects of tree guards and weed mats on establishment and growth of native tree seedlings, Thick-leaved oak (Cyclobalanopsis edithiae (Skan) Schott., Fagaceae), planted in an exposed hillside grassland in Hong Kong, were investigated. The natural regeneration of C. edithiae is poor due to a lack of seed dispersal agents and high seed predation, and therefore, this species is often targeted for forest restoration. The experiment lasted for 3.5 years during which the height, basal diameter, and crown diameter of individual seedlings were measured and survivorship recorded. The use of weed mats alone did not have a significant effect, but a combination of tree guards and weed mats led to a significant improvement in establishment, survivorship, and growth of the seedlings during the experimental period. Initially, the guards promoted rapid height growth of the seedlings, although lateral growth and secondary stem thickening were compromised. After the seedlings grew over the tree guards, the basal diameter and crown diameter increased at a notably faster rate. The combined effect of the tree guard and weed mat on the seedling growth pattern was found to be beneficial and contributed to the high survivorship of the seedlings. Comparing the survivorship data and the costs of various treatments, the use of tree guards in combination with the weed mats was demonstrated to be more cost-effective than planting the seedlings without tree guards or weed mats. The potential for applying the technique in afforestation programs with native tree species for forest restoration in Hong Kong and other tropical regions is discussed.

Notes: The terms “ecological restoration” and “restoration ecology” are frequently interchanged. Restoration ecology is the suite of scientific practices that constitute an emergent subdiscipline of ecology. Ecological restoration is the ensemble of practices that constitute the entire field of restoration, including restoration ecology as well as the participating human and natural sciences, politics, technologies, economic factors, and cultural dimensions. This paper is motivated by the concern that the broader practice of restoration may become narrowed over the next decade as a result of zealous attention to scientific and technological considerations, and that restoration ecology will trump ecological restoration. Scientific and technological acumen is necessary for successful restoration, but insufficient. Maintaining a broader approach to restoration requires respect for other kinds of knowledge than science, and especially the recognition of a moral center that is beyond the scope of science to address fully. An example of integrated restoration is presented: the ecological and cultural restoration of Discovery Island (near Victoria, British Columbia, Canada) by the Lekwungen people (Songhees First Nation).

Notes: The concept of sustainability has several, sometimes contrasting, meanings that may generate confusion, misunderstanding, and conflict concerning conservation and restoration practices. It is therefore desirable to clarify the concept of sustainability, thereby potentially contributing to mutual understanding, especially when social conflicts arise. This article discusses a recently published typology of three conceptions of sustainability that range from economic to ecocentric valuations of nature. We argue that the typology is incomplete because it does not include the arcadian approaches. For this reason, we introduce a “tripolar model” for conceptions of sustainability, applying it to the debate on shellfish harvesting in the Dutch Wadden Sea. We conclude that the particular visions or conceptions of sustainability held by relevant actors may have an impact on strategies for conservation.

Notes: Public Service Enterprise Group of New Jersey (PSEG) restored Delaware Bay marshes to enhance fish production as part of a mitigation negotiated in the company's New Jersey Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permit. Restoration meant control of an introduced type of the common reed, Phragmites, which had displaced Spartina alterniflora and S. patens. Phragmites dominance altered the function and structure of the brackish marshes and reduced habitat value by raising and flattening marsh surface and covering smaller tidal creeks. A common control technique is to use an herbicide—glyphosate. Public concern about herbicide use led to public meetings where the concerns were discussed and data provided. The scientific information regarding the herbicide did not satisfy the public. PSEG and New Jersey regulators agreed to test other methods for reed control and limit the amount of herbicide used. Experiments with methods of Phragmites control indicate that herbicide application over three or more growing seasons, concentrating in an area until control was complete, is the most effective control method.

Notes: The Long-Term Vision for the Schelde estuary was determined as “the development of a healthy and multifunctional estuarine water system that can be utilized in a sustainable way for human needs.” This Dutch–Flemish managerial plan sets quality targets for the condition of the estuary by the year 2030 and the management measures to achieve them. Targets were developed and integrated from three central perspectives: accessibility of the ports, safety against floods in the densely populated catchment, and ecosystem health. This study focuses on the ecological rehabilitation of the estuary and the creation of sustainable nature, seeking possible alliances with security measures against floods, navigation requisites for port activities, and enhancement of the estuary's educational and recreational values. The estuary and its valley were subdivided into ecologically relevant zones. Key parameters were identified, and a conceptual rehabilitation model was developed, based on a problem analysis. Goals were set in a semiquantified way for most attributes of the estuarine functioning and prioritized for each zone. Rehabilitation measures with maximal contribution to the priority goals were identified for each zone. Spatial analysis of the study area indicated optimal areas for the implementation of these measures. To exemplify the array of possibilities on an ecosystem level, two different rehabilitation plans were proposed, each from a different approach. The potential contribution to the rehabilitation of the estuary was compared for both alternatives.

Notes: We discuss the issue of using benchmark doses for quantifying (excess) risk associated with exposure to environmental hazards. The paradigm of low-dose risk estimation in dose-response modeling is used as the primary application scenario. Emphasis is placed on making simultaneous inferences on benchmark doses when data are in the form of proportions, although the concepts translate easily to other forms of outcome data.

Notes: This report describes the use of Bayesian networks (BNs) to model statistical loss distributions in financial operational risk scenarios. Its focus is on modeling “long” tail, or unexpected, loss events using mixtures of appropriate loss frequency and severity distributions where these mixtures are conditioned on causal variables that model the capability or effectiveness of the underlying controls process. The use of causal modeling is discussed from the perspective of exploiting local expertise about process reliability and formally connecting this knowledge to actual or hypothetical statistical phenomena resulting from the process. This brings the benefit of supplementing sparse data with expert judgment and transforming qualitative knowledge about the process into quantitative predictions. We conclude that BNs can help combine qualitative data from experts and quantitative data from historical loss databases in a principled way and as such they go some way in meeting the requirements of the draft Basel II Accord (Basel, 2004) for an advanced measurement approach (AMA).

Notes: The number of collisions and fatalities at rail-highway intersections in the United States has declined significantly over the past 30 years, despite considerable increases in the volume of rail and highway traffic. This article disaggregates the improvement into its constituent causes. Negative binomial regressions are conducted on a pooled data set for 49 states from 1975 to 2001. The analysis concludes that about two-fifths of the decrease is due to factors such as reduced drunk driving and improved emergency medical response that have improved safety on all parts of the highway network. The installation of gates and/or flashing lights accounts for about a fifth of the reduction. The development in the 1970s and early 1980s of the Operation Lifesaver public education campaign, and the installation of additional lights on locomotives in the mid 1990s, each led to about a seventh of the reduction. Finally, about a tenth is due to closure of crossings resulting from line abandonments or consolidation of little-used crossings.

Notes: The value of a statistical life (VSL) is a key input for estimating the benefits of policies that save lives. Several recent studies have obtained estimates of the VSL from contingent valuation surveys, i.e., by asking people to say how much they would pay to reduce their risk of dying. This article examines statistical factors that may influence the estimates of the VSL obtained from such surveys. We examine the importance of distributional assumptions, the choice of the welfare statistics of interest, the procedure for computing them, outliers, undesirable response effects, and internal validity of the willingness-to-pay (WTP) responses. We illustrate the importance of these factors using dichotomous-choice and open-ended WTP data from four recent contingent valuation surveys.

Notes: Safety systems are important components of high-consequence systems that are intended to prevent the unintended operation of the system and thus the potentially significant negative consequences that could result from such an operation. This presentation investigates and illustrates formal procedures for assessing the uncertainty in the probability that a safety system will fail to operate as intended in an accident environment. Probability theory and evidence theory are introduced as possible mathematical structures for the representation of the epistemic uncertainty associated with the performance of safety systems, and a representation of this type is illustrated with a hypothetical safety system involving one weak link and one strong link that is exposed to a high temperature fire environment. Topics considered include (1) the nature of diffuse uncertainty information involving a system and its environment, (2) the conversion of diffuse uncertainty information into the mathematical structures associated with probability theory and evidence theory, and (3) the propagation of these uncertainty structures through a model for a safety system to obtain representations in the context of probability theory and evidence theory of the uncertainty in the probability that the safety system will fail to operate as intended. The results suggest that evidence theory provides a potentially valuable representational tool for the display of the implications of significant epistemic uncertainty in inputs to complex analyses.

Notes: Recent studies demonstrating a concentration dependence of elimination of 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) suggest that previous estimates of exposure for occupationally exposed cohorts may have underestimated actual exposure, resulting in a potential overestimate of the carcinogenic potency of TCDD in humans based on the mortality data for these cohorts. Using a database on U.S. chemical manufacturing workers potentially exposed to TCDD compiled by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH), we evaluated the impact of using a concentration- and age-dependent elimination model (CADM) (Aylward et al., 2005) on estimates of serum lipid area under the curve (AUC) for the NIOSH cohort. These data were used previously by Steenland et al. (2001) in combination with a first-order elimination model with an 8.7-year half-life to estimate cumulative serum lipid concentration (equivalent to AUC) for these workers for use in cancer dose-response assessment. Serum lipid TCDD measurements taken in 1988 for a subset of the cohort were combined with the NIOSH job exposure matrix and work histories to estimate dose rates per unit of exposure score. We evaluated the effect of choices in regression model (regression on untransformed vs. ln-transformed data and inclusion of a nonzero regression intercept) as well as the impact of choices of elimination models and parameters on estimated AUCs for the cohort. Central estimates for dose rate parameters derived from the serum-sampled subcohort were applied with the elimination models to time-specific exposure scores for the entire cohort to generate AUC estimates for all cohort members. Use of the CADM resulted in improved model fits to the serum sampling data compared to the first-order models. Dose rates varied by a factor of 50 among different combinations of elimination model, parameter sets, and regression models. Use of a CADM results in increases of up to five-fold in AUC estimates for the more highly exposed members of the cohort compared to estimates obtained using the first-order model with 8.7-year half-life. This degree of variation in the AUC estimates for this cohort would affect substantially the cancer potency estimates derived from the mortality data from this cohort. Such variability and uncertainty in the reconstructed serum lipid AUC estimates for this cohort, depending on elimination model, parameter set, and regression model, have not been described previously and are critical components in evaluating the dose-response data from the occupationally exposed populations.

Notes: Approaches to risk assessment have been shown to vary among regulatory agencies and across jurisdictional boundaries according to the different assumptions and justifications used. Approaches to screening-level risk assessment from six international agencies were applied to an urban case study focusing on benzo[a]pyrene (B[a]P) exposure and compared in order to provide insight into the differences between agency methods, assumptions, and justifications. Exposure estimates ranged four-fold, with most of the dose stemming from exposure to animal products (8–73%) and plant products (24–88%). Total cancer risk across agencies varied by two orders of magnitude, with exposure to air and plant and animal products contributing most to total cancer risk, while the air contribution showed the greatest variability (1–99%). Variability in cancer risk of 100-fold was attributed to choices of toxicological reference values (TRVs), either based on a combination of epidemiological and animal data, or on animal data. The contribution and importance of the urban exposure pathway for cancer risk varied according to the TRV and, ultimately, according to differences in risk assessment assumptions and guidance. While all agency risk assessment methods are predicated on science, the study results suggest that the largest impact on the differential assessment of risk by international agencies comes from policy and judgment, rather than science.