ALBERT

Description: The ARES Directorate at JSC has researched the physical processes that create planetary magnetic fields through dynamo action since 2007. The "dynamo problem" has existed since 1600, when William Gilbert, physician to Queen Elizabeth I, recognized that the Earth was a giant magnet. In 1919, Joseph Larmor proposed that solar (and by implication, planetary) magnetism was due to magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), but full acceptance did not occur until Glatzmaier and Roberts solved the MHD equations numerically and simulated a geomagnetic reversal in 1995. JSC research produced a unique theoretical model in 2012 that provided a novel explanation of these physical observations and computational results as an essential manifestation of broken ergodicity in MHD turbulence. Research is ongoing, and future work is aimed at understanding quantitative details of magnetic dipole alignment in the Earth as well as in Mercury, Jupiter and its moon Ganymede, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and the Sun and other stars.

Description: A key mission of the ARES Directorate at JSC is to constrain models of the formation and geological history of terrestrial planets. Water is a crucial parameter to be measured with the aim to determine its amount and distribution in the interior of Earth, Mars, and the Moon. Most of that "water" is not liquid water per se, but rather hydrogen dissolved as a trace element in the minerals of the rocks at depth. Even so, the middle layer of differentiated planets, the mantle, occupies such a large volume and mass of each planet that when it is added at the planetary scale, oceans worth of water could be stored in its interior. The mantle is where magmas originate. Moreover, on Earth, the mantle is where the boundary between tectonic plates and the underlying asthenosphere is located. Even if mantle rocks in Earth typically contain less than 200 ppm H2O, such small quantities have tremendous influence on how easily they melt (i.e., the more water there is, the more magma is produced) and deform (the more water there is, the less viscous they are). These two properties alone emphasize that to understand the distribution of volcanism and the mechanism of plate tectonics, the water content of the mantle must be determined - Earth being a template to which all other terrestrial planets can be compared.

Description: The relative importance of heterogeneous and homogeneous ice nucleation for cirrus formation remains an active area of debate in the cloud physics community. From a theoretical perspective, a number of modeling studies have investigated the sensitivity of ice number concentration to the nucleation mechanism and the abundance of ice nuclei. However, these studies typically only addressed ice concentration immediately after ice nucleation. Recent modeling work has shown that the high ice concentrations produced by homogeneous freezing may not persist very long, which is consistent with the low frequency of occurrence of high ice concentrations indicated by cirrus measurements. Here, I use idealized simulations to investigate the impact of ice nucleation mechanism and ice nuclei abundance on the full lifecycle of cirrus clouds. The primary modeling framework used includes different modes of ice nucleation, deposition growth/sublimation, aggregation, sedimentation, and radiation. A limited number of cloud-resolving simulations that treat radiation/dynamics interactions will also been presented. I will show that for typical synoptic situations with mesoscale waves present, the time-averaged cirrus ice crystal size distributions and bulk cloud properties are less sensitive to ice nucleation processes than might be expected from the earlier simple ice nucleation calculations. I will evaluate the magnitude of the ice nuclei impact on cirrus for a range of temperatures and mesoscale wave specifications, and I will discuss the implications for cirrus aerosol indirect effects in general.

Description: The Aerosols-Clouds-Ecosystems (ACE) mission, recommended by the National Research Council's Decadal Survey, calls for a multi-angle, multi-spectral polarimeter devoted to observations of atmospheric aerosols and clouds. In preparation for ACE, NASA funds the deployment of airborne polarimeters, including the Airborne Multi-angle SpectroPolarimeter Imager (AirMSPI), the Passive Aerosol and Cloud Suite (PACS) and the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP). These instruments have been operated together on NASA's ER-2 high altitude aircraft as part of field campaigns such as the POlarimeter DEfinition EXperiment (PODEX) (California, early 2013) and Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS, California and Texas, summer 2013). Our role in these efforts has been to serve as an assessment team performing level 1 (calibrated radiance, polarization) and level 2 (retrieved geophysical parameter) instrument intercomparisons, and to promote unified and generalized calibration, uncertainty assessment and retrieval techniques. We will present our progress in this endeavor thus far and describe upcoming research in 2015.

Description: The Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) is the first empirical model for thermal inner magnetospheric plasma designed to integrate previous models and observations into a continuous in value and gradient representation of typical total densities. New information about the plasmasphere, in particular, makes possible significant improvement. The IMAGE Mission Radio Plasma Imager (RPI) has obtained the first observations of total plasma densities along magnetic field lines in the plasmasphere and polar cap. Dynamics Explorer 1 Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer (RIMS) has provided densities in temperatures in the plasmasphere for 5 ion species. These and other works enable a new more detailed empirical model of thermal in the inner magnetosphere that will be presented.

Description: The quantitative detection of clouds in satellite imagery has a number of important applications in weather analysis. The proper interpretation of satellite imagery for improved situational awareness depends on knowing where the clouds are at all times of the day. Additionally, many products derived from infrared measurements need accurate cloud information to mask out regions where retrieval of geophysical parameters in the atmosphere or on the surface are not possible. Thus, the accurate detection of the presence of clouds in satellite imagery on a global basis is important to the product developers and the operational weather community to support their decisionmaking process. This abstract describes an application of a twochannel bispectral composite threshold (BCT) approach applied to VIIRS imagery. The simplified BCT approach uses only the 10.76 and 3.75 micrometer spectral channels in two spectral tests; a straightforward infrared threshold test with the longwave channel and a shortwave minus longwave channel difference test. The key to the success of this approach as demonstrated in past applications to GOES and MODIS data is the generation of temporally and spatially dependent thresholds used in the tests from a previous number of days at similar observations to the current data. The presentation will present an overview of the approach and intercomparison results with other satellites, methods, and against verification data.

Description: Smectite has been detected as layered material hundreds of meters thick, in intracrater depositional fans, in plains sediments, and deposits at depth on Mars. If early Mars hosted a dense CO2 atmosphere, then extensive carbonate should have formed in the neutral/alkaline conditions expected for smectite formation. However, large carbonate deposits on Mars have not been discovered. Instead of neutral to moderately alkaline conditions, early Mars may have experienced mildly acidic conditions that allowed for Fe/Mg smectite formation but prevented widespread carbonate formation. The objective of this work is to demonstrate that Fe(II)/Mg saponite and nontronite can form in mildly acidic solutions (e.g., pH 4). Synthetic basaltic glass (〈 53 microns) of Adirondack rock class composition was exposed to pH 4 (acetic acid buffer) and N2 purged (anoxic) solutions amended with 0 and 10 mM Mg or Fe(II). Basaltic glass in these solutions was heated to 200 C in batch reactors for 1, 7, and 14 days. X-ray diffraction analysis of reacted materials detected the presence of phyllosilicates as indicated by a approx. 15.03-15.23Angstroms (001) peak. Smectite was confirmed as the phyllosilicate after treatments with glycerol and KCl and heating to 550 C. Trioctahedral saponite was confirmed by the presence of a 4.58 to 4.63 Angstroms (02l) and 1.54Angstroms (060) peaks. Saponite concentration was highest, as indicated by XRD peak intensity, in the 10 mM Mg treatment followed by the 0 mM and then 10 mM Fe(II) treatments. This order of sapontite concentration suggests that Fe(II) additions may have a role in slowing the kinetics of saponite formation relative to the other treatments. Nontronite synthesis was attempted by exposing Adirondack basaltic glass to pH 4 oxic solutions (without N2 purge) at 200 C for 14 days. X-ray diffraction analysis indicated that mixtures of trioctahedral (saponite) and dioctahedral (nontronite) may have formed in these experiments based on the 02l and 060 peaks. Moessbauer analysis coupled with future experiments are planned to verify if nontronite can be formed under mildly acidic and oxic conditions. Results of this work demonstrate that acidic conditions could have occurred on an early Mars, which allowed for smectite formation but inhibited carbonate formation.

Description: The mantle lithosphere beneath the cratonic part of continents is the deepest (〉 200 km) and oldest (〉2-3 Ga) on Earth, remaining a conundrum as to how these cratonic roots could have resisted delamination by asthenospheric convection over time. Water, or trace H incorporated in mineral defects, could be a key player in the evolution of continental lithosphere because it influences melting and rheology of the mantle. Mantle xenoliths from the Lac de Gras kimberlite in the Slave craton were analyzed by FTIR. The cratonic mantle beneath Lac de Gras is stratified with shallow (〈145 km) oxidized ultradepleted peridotites and pyroxenites with evidence for carbonatitic metasomatism, underlain by reduced and less depleted peridotites metasomatized by kimberlite melts. Peridotites analyzed so far have H O contents in ppm weight of 7-100 in their olivines, 58 to 255 in their orthopyroxenes (opx), 11 to 84 in their garnet, and 139 in one clinopyroxene. A pyroxenite contains 58 ppm H2O in opx and 5 ppm H2O in its olivine and garnet. Olivine and garnet from the deep peridotites have a range of water contents extending to higher values than those from the shallow ones. The FTIR spectra of olivines from the shallow samples have more prominent Group II OH bands compared to the olivines from the deep samples, consistent with a more oxidized mantle environment. The range of olivine water content is similar to that observed in Kaapvaal craton peridotites at the same depths (129-184 km) but does not extend to as high values as those from Udachnaya (Siberian craton). The Slave, Kaapvaal and Siberian cratons will be compared in terms of water content distribution, controls and role in cratonic root longevity.

Description: Cataclysmic eruptions of silicic magma from "supervolcanoes" are among the most awe-inspiring natural phenomena found in the geologic record, in terms of size, power, and potential hazard. Based on the repose intervals between eruptions of this magnitude, the magmas responsible for them could accumulate gradually in the shallow crust over time scales that may be in excess of a million years (Smith, 1979; Spera and Crisp, 1981; Shaw, 1985). Pre-eruption magma residence time scales can also be inferred from the age difference between eruption (i.e., using 40Ar/39Ar dating to determine the time when hot erupted material cools to below its Ar closure temperature, 200 to 600 degC) and early pre-eruption crystallization (i.e., zircon saturation temperatures; Reid et al., 1997). I will discuss observations from Long Valley a Quaternary volcanic center in California. Long Valley is a voluminous, dominantly silicic caldera system. Based on extensive dating of accessory minerals (e.g., U-Th-Pb dating of zircon and allanite) along with geochemical and isotopic data we find that silicic magmas begin to crystallize 10's to 100's of thousands of years prior to their eruption and that rhyolites record episodes of punctuated and independent evolution rather than the periodic tapping of a long-lived magma. The more punctuated versus more gradual magma accumulation rates required by the absolute and model ages, respectively, imply important differences in the mass and heat fluxes associated with the generation, differentiation, and storage of voluminous rhyolites and emphasize the need to reconcile the magmatic age differences.

Description: The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment seeks to quantify the relationship between storm physics, lightning characteristics and the production of nitrogen oxides via lightning (LNOx). The focus of this study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern LNOx production, such as flash rate, type and extent across Alabama during DC3. Prior studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate and type is correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed-phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume and graupel mass. More study is required to generalize these relationships in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co-evolving relationship between storm physics, morphology and three-dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for LNOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection Network(TM) (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash rate, flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to multicell thunderstorms over Northern Alabama on two days during DC3 (21 May and 11 June 2012) in which aircraft observations of NOx are available for comparison. The LNOM lightning characteristics and LNOX production estimates are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual-Doppler and polarimetric radar analyses applied to observations from a nearby radar network, including the UAH Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Given complex multicell evolution, particular attention is paid to storm morphology, cell mergers and possible dynamical, microphysical and electrical interaction of individual cells when testing various hypotheses.

Description: Ca- Al-rich inclusions (CAIs) are commonly surrounded by Wark-Lovering (WL) rims - thin (approx. 50 micrometers) multilayered sequences - whose mineralogy is dominated by high temperature minerals similar to those that occur in the cores of CAIs [1]. The origins of these WL rims involved high temperature events in the early nebula such as condensation, flashheating or reaction with a nebular reservoir, or combinations of these processes. These rims formed after CAI formation but prior to accretion into their parent bodies. We have undertaken a coordinated mineralogical and isotopic study of WL rims to determine the formation conditions of the individual layers and to constrain the isotopic reservoirs they interacted with during their history. We focus here on the spinel layer, the first-formed highest- temperature layer in the WL rim sequence. Results and Discussion: We have performed mineralogical, chemical and isotopic analyses of an unusual ultrarefractory inclusion from the Allende CV3 chondrite (SHAL) consisting of an approx. 500 micrometers long single crystal of hibonite and co-existing coarsegrained perovskite. SHAL is partially surrounded by WL rim. We previously reported on the mineralogy, isotopic compositions and trace elements in SHAL [2-4]. The spinel layer in the WL rim is present only on the hibonite and terminates abruptly at the contact with the coarse perovskite. This simple observation shows that the spinel layer is not a condensate in this case (otherwise spinel would have condensed on the perovskite as well). The spinel layer appears to have formed by gas-phase corrosion of the hibonite by Mg-rich vapors such that the spinel layer grew at the expense of the hibonite. We also found that the spinel layer has the same 16Orich composition as the hibonite. The spinel layer is polycrystalline and individual crystals do not show a crystallographic relationship with the hibonite. An Al-diopside layer overlies the spinel layer, and is present on both the hibonite and perovskite. While the spinel is 16O-rich, WL-rim perovskite and pyroxene are 16O-poor. This isotopic heterogeneity likely reflects O isotopic equilibration of WL-rim perovskite and pyroxene with a planetary O isotopic reservoir after the WL rim formation. The hibonite is zoned and contains wt.% levels of Ti, Mg and Fe in contact with the Fe-bearing spinel (Sp60Hc40) in the WL rim. The Fe enrichment in spinel is likely related to the Na-Fe metasomatism that is ubiquitous in Allende. Conclusions: The petrography and microstructure of the spinel layer in a WL rim sequence shows that it formed by gas phase reactions at high temperature in the nebula. The oxygen isotopic composition of the spinel indicates that this WL rim layer formed in the same (or similar) nebular gas reservoir as the host CAI.

Description: Silicates in mesosiderites commonly show anomalous characteristics compared to howardites. These characteristics indicate that many of the mesosiderite lithologies were formed during and/or after metal silicate mixing. Petrologic evidence indicates that impact gardening occurred on the mesosiderite asteroid after metal-silicate mixing. Thus the anomalous materials ought to be widely distributed on that asteroid. The compositions of howardites suggest a well-mixed regolith on Vesta. The lack of distinctive mesosiderite-like materials in howardites favors separate parents for the two meteorite groups.

Description: Classifying chondrites is relatively easy and the criteria are well documented. It is based on mineral compositions, textural characteristics and more recently, magnetic susceptibility. It can be more difficult to classify achondrites, especially those that are very similar to terrestrial igneous rocks, because mineralogical, textural and compositional properties can be quite variable. Achondrites contain essentially olivine, pyroxenes, plagioclases, oxides, sulphides and accessory minerals. Their origin is attributed to differentiated parents bodies: large asteroids (Vesta); planets (Mars); a satellite (the Moon); and numerous asteroids of unknown size. In most cases, achondrites are not eye witnessed falls and some do not have fusion crust. Because of the mineralogical and magnetic susceptibility similarity with terrestrial igneous rocks for some achondrites, it can be difficult for classifiers to confirm their extra-terrestrial origin. We -as classifiers of meteorites- are confronted with this problem with every suspected achondrite we receive for identification. We are developing a "grid" of classification to provide an easier approach for initial classification. We use simple but reproducible criteria based on mineralogical, petrological and geochemical studies. We presented the classes: acapulcoites, lodranites, winonaites and Martian meteorites (shergottite, chassignites, nakhlites). In this work we are completing the classification table by including the groups: angrites, aubrites, brachinites, ureilites, HED (howardites, eucrites, and diogenites), lunar meteorites, pallasites and mesosiderites. Iron meteorites are not presented in this abstract.

Description: Early solar system aqueous fluids are preserved in some H chondrites as aqueous fluid inclusions in halite (e.g., [1]). Although potential fluid inclusions are also expected in carbonaceous chondrites [2], they have not been surely confirmed. In order to search for these fluid inclusions, we have developped a new X-ray micro-tomography technique combined with FIB sampling and applied this techniqu to a carbanaceous chondrite. Experimental: A polished thin section of Sutter's Mill meteorite (CM) was observed with an optical microscope and FE-SEM (JEOL 7001F) for chosing mineral grains of carbonates (mainly calcite) and sulfides (FeS and ZnS) 20-50 microns in typical size, which may have aqueous fluid inclusions. Then, a "house" similar to a cube with a roof (20-30 microns in size) is sampled from the mineral grain by using FIB (FEI Quanta 200 3DS). Then, the house was atached to a thin W-needle by FIB and imaged by a SR-based imaging microtomography system with a Fresnel zone plate at beamline BL47XU, SPring-8, Japan. One sample was imaged at two X-ray energies, 7 and 8 keV, to identify mineral phases (dual-enegy microtomography: [3]). The size of voxel (pixel in 3D) was 50-80 nm, which gave the effective spatial resolution of approx. 200 nm. A terrestrial quartz sample with an aqueous fluid inclusion with a bubble was also examined as a test sample by the same method. Results and discussion: A fluid inclusion of 5-8 microns in quartz was clearly identified in a CT image. A bubble of approx. 4 microns was also identified as refraction contrast although the X-ray absorption difference between fluid and bubble is small. Volumes of the fluid and bubble were obtained from the 3D CT images. Fourteen grains of calcite, two grains of iron sulfide and one grain of (Zn,Fe)S were examined. Ten calcite, one iron sulfide and one (Zn,Fe)S grains have inclusions 〉1 micron in size (the maximum: approx. 5 microns). The shapes are spherical or irregular. Tiny inclusions (〈1 micron) are also present in all the grains examined. These results show that mineral grains have more inclusions than expected from 2D observations. The X-ray absorption of the inclusions shows that they are not solid inclusions. No bubbles were observed inside, indicating that we cannot determine whether they are really aqueous fluids or merely voids. One calcite grain has an inclusion approx. 2 microns in size, which seems to have a bubble and a tiny solid daughter crystal inside (three-phase inclusion). As we know the exact 3D position of the inclusion, we will anlyze the inclusion by SIMS after freezing the sample as has been done for a halite sample [3]. The present technique is useful for finding small inclusions not only in carbonaceous chondrites but also for terrestrial materials.

Description: Monahans meteorite (H5) contains fluid inclusion- bearing halite (NaCl) crystals [1]. Microthermometry and Raman spectroscopy showed that the fluid in the inclusions is an aqueous brine and they were trapped near 25degC [1]. Their continued presence in the halite grains requires that their incorporation into the H chondrite asteroid was post metamorphism [2]. Abundant solid inclusions are also present in the halites. The solid inclusions include abundant and widely variable organics [2]. Analyses by Raman microprobe, SEM/EDX, synchrotron X-ray diffraction and TEM reveal that these grains include macromolecular carbon similar in structure to CV3 chondrite matrix carbon, aliphatic carbon compounds, olivine (Fo9959), high- and low-Ca pyroxene, feldspars, magnetite, sulfides, lepidocrocite, carbonates, diamond, apatite and possibly the zeolite phillipsite [3]. Here we report organic analyses of these carbonaceous residues in Monahans halite using C-, N-, and O- X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES). Samples and Methods: Approximately 100 nm-thick sections were extracted with a focused ion beam (FIB) at JSC from solid inclusions from Monahans halite. The sections were analyzed using the scanning transmission X-ray microscope (STXM) on beamline 5.3.2.2 at the Advanced Light Source, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory for XANES spectroscopy. Results and Discussion: C-XANES spectra of the solid inclusions show micrometer-scale heterogeneity, indicating that the macromolecular carbon in the inclusions have complex chemical variations. C-XANES features include 284.7 eV assigned to aromatic C=C, 288.4-288.8 eV assigned to carboxyl, and 290.6 eV assigned to carbonate. The carbonyl features obtained by CXANES might have been caused by the FIB used in sample preparation. No specific N-XANES features are observed. The CXANES spectra obtained from several areas in the FIB sections include type 1&2 chondritic IOM like, type 3 chondritic IOM like, and none of the above. The natures of the macromolecular carbon in the solid inclusions observed by C-XANES are consistent with the previous studies showing that the carbonaceous solid inclusions have not originated from Monahans parent body [1-3], and have various origins, including various chondritic meteorite parent bodies as well as other unknown source(s).

Description: Current work on the lightning jump algorithm to be used in GOESR Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)'s data stream is multifaceted due to the intricate interplay between the storm tracking, GLM proxy data, and the performance of the lightning jump itself. This work outlines the progress of the last year, where analysis and performance of the lightning jump algorithm with automated storm tracking and GLM proxy data were assessed using over 700 storms from North Alabama. The cases analyzed coincide with previous semiobjective work performed using total lightning mapping array (LMA) measurements in Schultz et al. (2011). Analysis shows that key components of the algorithm (flash rate and sigma thresholds) have the greatest influence on the performance of the algorithm when validating using severe storm reports. Automated objective analysis using the GLM proxy data has shown probability of detection (POD) values around 60% with false alarm rates (FAR) around 73% using similar methodology to Schultz et al. (2011). However, when applying verification methods similar to those employed by the National Weather Service, POD values increase slightly (69%) and FAR values decrease (63%). The relationship between storm tracking and lightning jump has also been tested in a realtime framework at NSSL. This system includes fully automated tracking by radar alone, realtime LMA and radar observations and the lightning jump. Results indicate that the POD is strong at 65%. However, the FAR is significantly higher than in Schultz et al. (2011) (5080% depending on various tracking/lightning jump parameters) when using storm reports for verification. Given known issues with Storm Data, the performance of the realtime jump algorithm is also being tested with high density radar and surface observations from the NSSL Severe Hazards Analysis & Verification Experiment (SHAVE).

Description: A revolutionary opportunity to explore the consequences of reconnection in the ionosphere as never before will be presented. It is a revolutionary opportunity to explore key Aeronomy emissions on a global scale with spatial and temporal resolution not possible today. For example, observations of the signature of dayside merging and nightside reconnection that are reflected in the auroral oval evolution during disturbed periods and quiet times, will be described; observations that will open a window of discovery for coupling phenomena within Geospace and with the solar wind. The description of this new concept will be presented, and its impact and contribution to understanding magnetic merging will be discussed.

Description: Sprites are a category of Transient Luminous Events (TLEs) that occur in the upper atmosphere above the tops of Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs). They are commonly associated with lightning that produce large charge moment changes (CMCs). Synergistic use of satellite and radarretrieved observations together with sounding data, forecasts, and lightningdetection networks allowed the diagnosis and analysis of the meteorological conditions associated with sprites as well as largeCMC lightning over Oklahoma.

Description: A case study and monthly statistical analysis using sounder data assimilation to improve the Alaska regional weather forecast model are presented. Weather forecast in Alaska faces challenges as well as opportunities. Alaska has a large land with multiple types of topography and coastal area. Weather forecast models must be finely tuned in order to accurately predict weather in Alaska. Being in the high-latitudes provides Alaska greater coverage of polar orbiting satellites for integration into forecasting models than the lower 48. Forecasting marine low stratus clouds is critical to the Alaska aviation and oil industry and is the current focus of the case study. NASA AIRS/CrIS sounder profiles data are used to do data assimilation for the Alaska regional weather forecast model to improve Arctic marine stratus clouds forecast. Choosing physical options for the WRF model is discussed. Preprocess of AIRS/CrIS sounder data for data assimilation is described. Local observation data, satellite data, and global data assimilation data are used to verify and/or evaluate the forecast results by the MET tools Model Evaluation Tools (MET).

Description: The NASA/Shortterm Prediction, Research, and Transition (SPoRT) Program and NOAA/Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) work within the NOAA/Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Proving Ground to demonstrate the unique capabilities of the VIIRS instrument. Very similar to MODIS, the VIIRS instrument provides many highresolution visible and infrared channels in a broad spectrum. In addition, VIIRS is equipped with a lowlight sensor that is able to detect light emissions from the land and atmosphere as well as reflected sunlight by the lunar surface. This band is referred to as the DayNight Band due to the sunlight being used at night to see cloud and topographic features just as one would typically see in daytime visible imagery. NWS forecast offices that collaborate with SPoRT and CIRA have utilized MODIS imagery in operations, but have longed for more frequent passes of polarorbiting data. The VIIRS instrument enhances SPoRT collaborations with WFOs by providing another day and nighttime pass, and at times two additional passes due to its large swath width. This means that multispectral, RGB imagery composites are more readily available to prepare users for their use in GOESR era and highresolution imagery for use in highlatitudes is more frequently able to supplement standard GOES imagery within the SPoRT Hybrid GEOLEO product. The transition of VIIRS also introduces the new DayNight Band capability to forecast operations. An Intensive Evaluation Period (IEP) was conducted in Summer 2013 with a group of "Front Range" NWS offices related to VIIRS nighttime imagery. VIIRS singlechannel imagery is able to better analyze the specific location of fire hotspots and other land features, as well as provide a more true measurement of various cloud and aerosol properties than geostationary measurements, especially at night. Viewed within the SPoRT Hybrid imagery, the VIIRS data allows forecasters to better interpret the more frequent, but coarse GOES Imagery. Nighttime Microphysics and Dust RGB Imagery provides cloud analysis of cloud height, thickness, and composition in order for operational applications such as separating fog from low clouds, dust plume detection, and determining precipitating clouds in radar-void/ blocked regions. The DayNight Band has a particular benefit to seeing light from cities, fires, or other emissions as well as the reflection of moonlight off of clouds and smoke plumes, given the right lunar phase and angle. Examples from the VIIRS transition and IEP will be presented.

Description: Dual-polarimetric (dual-pol) radar typically transmits both horizontally and vertically polarized radio wave pulses. From the two different reflected power returns, more accurate estimate of liquid and solid cloud and precipitation can be provided. The upgrade of the traditional NWS WSR-88D radar to include dual-pol capabilities will soon be completed for the entire NEXRAD network. Therefore, the use of dual-pol radar network will have a broad impact in both research and operational communities. The assimilation of dual-pol radar data is especially challenging as few guidelines have been provided by previous research. It is our goal to examine how to best use dual-pol radar data to improve forecast of severe storm and forecast initialization. In recent years, the Development Testbed Center (DTC) has released the community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) DA system for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The community GSI system runs in independently environment, yet works functionally equivalent to operational centers. With collaboration with the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, this study explores regional assimilation of the dual-pol radar variables from the WSR-88D radars for real case storms. Our presentation will highlight our recent effort on incorporating the horizontal reflectivity (ZH), differential reflectivity (ZDR), specific differential phase (KDP), and radial velocity (VR) data for initializing convective storms, with a significant focus being on an improved representation of hydrometeor fields. In addition, discussion will be provided on the development of enhanced assimilation procedures in the GSI system with respect to dual-pol variables. Beyond the dual-pol variable assimilation procedure developing within a GSI framework, highresolution (1 km) WRF model simulations and storm scale data assimilation experiments will be examined, emphasizing both model initialization and short-term forecast of precipitation fields and processes. Further details of the methodology of data assimilation, the impact of different dual-pol variables, the influence on precipitation forecast will be presented at the conference.

Description: Providing advance warning of East African rainfall variations is a particular focus of several groups including those participating in the Famine Early Warming Systems Network. Both seasonal and long-term model projections of climate variability are being used to examine the societal impacts of hydrometeorological variability on seasonal to interannual and longer time scales. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of both seasonal and climate model projections to develop downscaled scenarios for using in impact modeling. The utility of these projections is reliant on the ability of current models to capture the embedded relationships between East African rainfall and evolving forcing within the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate system. Previous studies have posited relationships between variations in El Nio, the Walker circulation, Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and anthropogenic forcing. This study applies machine learning methods (e.g. clustering, probabilistic graphical model, nonlinear PCA) to observational datasets in an attempt to expose the importance of local and remote forcing mechanisms of East African rainfall variability. The ability of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5) coupled model to capture the associated relationships will be evaluated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations.

Description: Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a hyperspectral radiometer aboard NASA's Aqua satellite designed to measure atmospheric profiles of temperature and humidity. AIRS retrievals are assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over the North Pacific for some cases involving "atmospheric rivers". These events bring a large flux of water vapor to the west coast of North America and often lead to extreme precipitation in the coastal mountain ranges. An advantage of assimilating retrievals rather than radiances is that information in partly cloudy fields of view can be used. Two different Level 2 AIRS retrieval products are compared: the Version 6 AIRS Science Team standard retrievals and a neural net retrieval from MIT. Before assimilation, a bias correction is applied to adjust each layer of retrieved temperature and humidity so the layer mean values agree with a short-term model climatology. WRF runs assimilating each of the products are compared against each other and against a control run with no assimilation. This paper will describe the bias correction technique and results from forecasts evaluated by validation against a Total Precipitable Water (TPW) product from CIRA and against Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses.

Description: Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Previously, it has been shown that cloud top designation associated with quality control procedures within the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system used operationally by a number of Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) partners may not provide the best representation of cloud top pressure (CTP). Because this designated CTP determines which channels are cloud-free and, thus, available for assimilation, ensuring the most accurate representation of this value is imperative to obtaining the greatest impact from satellite radiances. This paper examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing analysis increments and numerical forecasts generated using operational techniques with a research technique that swaps CTP from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the value of CTP calculated from the radiances within GSI.

Description: Automating the coupling of data assimilation (DA) and modeling systems is a unique challenge in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) research community. In recent years, the Development Testbed Center (DTC) has released well-documented tools such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) DA system that can be easily downloaded, installed, and run by researchers on their local systems. However, developing a coupled system in which the various preprocessing, DA, model, and postprocessing capabilities are all integrated can be labor-intensive if one has little experience with any of these individual systems. Additionally, operational modeling entities generally have specific coupling methodologies that can take time to understand and develop code to implement properly. To better enable collaborating researchers to perform modeling and DA experiments with GSI, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a set of Perl scripts that couple GSI and WRF in a cycling methodology consistent with the use of real-time, regional observation data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC). Because Perl is open source, the code can be easily downloaded and executed regardless of the user's native shell environment. This paper will provide a description of this open-source code and descriptions of a number of the use cases that have been performed by SPoRT collaborators using the scripts on different computing systems.

Description: There is need in the research community for weather-related case studies to improve prediction of and recovery after convective thunderstorms that produce damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. One of the largest continuing challenges in any Earth Science investigation is the discovery of and access to useful science content from the increasingly large volumes of available Earth Science data. The Information Technology and Systems Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville has developed a software system called Noesis 2.0 that can be used to produce Data Albums for weather events relevant to NASA Earth Science researchers. Noesis is an Internet search tool that combines relevant storm research, pictures and videos of an event or event aftermath, web pages containing news reports and official storm summaries, background information about damage, injuries, and deaths, and NASA datasets from field campaigns and satellites into a "one-stop shop" database. The Data Album concept has been previously applied to hurricane cases from 2010 to present. The objective of this paper is to extend that Hurricane Data Album concept to focus on development of an ontology for significant severe weather to aid in selecting appropriate NASA datasets for inclusion in a severe weather Data Album. Recent severe weather events in Moore and El Reno, Oklahoma will be analyzed as an example of how these events can be incorporated into a Data Album.

Description: Natural cloud-to-ground lightning may behave differently depending on the characteristics of the attachment mediums, including the peak current (inferred from radiation fields) and the number of ground strike locations per flash. Existing literature has raised issues over the yea"rs on the behavior of lightning over ocean terrain and these phenomena are not yet well understood. To investigate lightning characteristics over differing terrain we will obtain identical observations over adjacent land and ocean regions during both clear air and thunderstorm periods comparing the electric field behavior over these various terrains. For this, a 3-meter NOAA buoy moored 20NM off the coast of the Kennedy Space Center was instrumented with an electric field mill and New Mexico Tech's slow antenna to measure the electric fields aloft and compared to the existing on-shore electric field mill suite of 31 sensors and a coastal slow antenna. New Mexico Tech's Lightning Mapping Array and the Eastern Range Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System, along with the network of high-speed cameras being used to capture cloud-to-ground lightning strikes over the terrain regions to identify a valid data set and verify the electric fields. This is an on-going project with the potential for significant impact on the determination of lightning risk to objects on the ground. This presentation will provide results and instrumentation progress to date.

Description: Separated flow over a bluff body is analyzed via large eddy simulations. The turbulent flow around a square cylinder features a variety of complex flow phenomena such as highly unsteady vortical structures, reverse flow in the near wall region, and wake turbulence. The formation of spanwise vortices is often times artificially suppressed in computations by either insufficient depth or a coarse spanwise resolution. As the resolution is refined and the domain extended, the artificial turbulent energy exchange between spanwise and streamwise turbulence is eliminated within the wake region. A parametric study is performed highlighting the effects of spanwise vortices where the spanwise computational domain's resolution and depth are varied. For Re=22,000, the mean and turbulent statistics computed from the numerical large eddy simulations (NLES) are in good agreement with experimental data. Von-Karman shedding is observed in the wake of the cylinder. Mesh independence is illustrated by comparing a mesh resolution of 2 million to 16 million. Sensitivities to time stepping were minimized and sampling frequency sensitivities were nonpresent. While increasing the spanwise depth and resolution can be costly, this practice was found to be necessary to eliminating the artificial turbulent energy exchange.

Description: Fundamental research for sonic boom reduction is needed to quantify the interaction of shock waves generated from the aircraft wing or tail surfaces with the nozzle exhaust plume. Aft body shock waves that interact with the exhaust plume contribute to the near-field pressure signature of a vehicle. The plume and shock interaction was studied using computational fluid dynamics and compared with experimental data from a coaxial convergent-divergent nozzle flow in an open jet facility. A simple diamond-shaped wedge was used to generate the shock in the outer flow to study its impact on the inner jet flow. Results show that the compression from the wedge deflects the nozzle plume and shocks form on the opposite plume boundary. The sonic boom pressure signature of the nozzle exhaust plume was modified by the presence of the wedge. Both the experimental results and computational predictions show changes in plume deflection.

Description: We discuss thrust measurements of Dielectric Barrier Discharge (DBD) plasma actuators devices used for aerodynamic active flow control. After a review of our experience with conventional thrust measurement and significant non-repeatability of the results, we devised a suspended actuator test setup, and now present a methodology of thrust measurements with decreased uncertainty. The methodology consists of frequency scans at constant voltages. The procedure consists of increasing the frequency in a step-wise fashion from several Hz to the maximum frequency of several kHz, followed by frequency decrease back down to the start frequency of several Hz. This sequence is performed first at the highest voltage of interest, then repeated at lower voltages. The data in the descending frequency direction is more consistent and selected for reporting. Sample results show strong dependence of thrust on humidity which also affects the consistency and fluctuations of the measurements. We also observed negative values of thrust or "anti-thrust", at low frequencies between 4 Hz and up to 64 Hz. The anti-thrust is proportional to the mean-squared voltage and is frequency independent. Departures from the parabolic anti-thrust curve are correlated with appearance of visible plasma discharges. We propose the anti-thrust hypothesis. It states that the measured thrust is a sum of plasma thrust and anti-thrust, and assumes that the anti-thrust exists at all frequencies and voltages. The anti-thrust depends on actuator geometry and materials and on the test installation. It enables the separation of the plasma thrust from the measured total thrust. This approach enables more meaningful comparisons between actuators at different installations and laboratories. The dependence on test installation was validated by surrounding the actuator with a large diameter, grounded, metal sleeve.

Description: Today's presentation is a short tutorial on auroral charging of spacecraft and the characteristics of the space plasma environment that are required to predict charging.

Description: Determining the adverse aerodynamic effects due to ice accretion often relies on dry-air wind-tunnel testing of artificial, or simulated, ice shapes. Recent developments in ice accretion documentation methods have yielded a laser-scanning capability that can measure highly three-dimensional features of ice accreted in icing wind tunnels. The objective of this paper was to evaluate the aerodynamic accuracy of ice-accretion simulations generated from laser-scan data. Ice-accretion tests were conducted in the NASA Icing Research Tunnel using an 18-inch chord, 2-D straight wing with NACA 23012 airfoil section. For six ice accretion cases, a 3-D laser scan was performed to document the ice geometry prior to the molding process. Aerodynamic performance testing was conducted at the University of Illinois low-speed wind tunnel at a Reynolds number of 1.8 x 10(exp 6) and a Mach number of 0.18 with an 18-inch chord NACA 23012 airfoil model that was designed to accommodate the artificial ice shapes. The ice-accretion molds were used to fabricate one set of artificial ice shapes from polyurethane castings. The laser-scan data were used to fabricate another set of artificial ice shapes using rapid prototype manufacturing such as stereolithography. The iced-airfoil results with both sets of artificial ice shapes were compared to evaluate the aerodynamic simulation accuracy of the laser-scan data. For four of the six ice-accretion cases, there was excellent agreement in the iced-airfoil aerodynamic performance between the casting and laser-scan based simulations. For example, typical differences in iced-airfoil maximum lift coefficient were less than 3% with corresponding differences in stall angle of approximately one degree or less. The aerodynamic simulation accuracy reported in this paper has demonstrated the combined accuracy of the laser-scan and rapid-prototype manufacturing approach to simulating ice accretion for a NACA 23012 airfoil. For several of the ice-accretion cases tested, the aerodynamics is known to depend upon the small, three dimensional features of the ice. These data show that the laser-scan and rapid-prototype manufacturing approach is capable of replicating these ice features within the reported accuracies of the laser-scan measurement and rapid-prototyping method; thus providing a new capability for high-fidelity ice-accretion documentation and artificial ice-shape fabrication for icing research.

Description: Over the last few years, numerical prediction of dust aerosol concentration has become prominent at several research and operational weather centres due to growing interest from diverse stakeholders, such as solar energy plant managers, health professionals, aviation and military authorities and policymakers. Dust prediction in numerical weather prediction-type models faces a number of challenges owing to the complexity of the system. At the centre of the problem is the vast range of scales required to fully account for all of the physical processes related to dust. Another limiting factor is the paucity of suitable dust observations available for model, evaluation and assimilation. This chapter discusses in detail numerical prediction of dust with examples from systems that are currently providing dust forecasts in near real-time or are part of international efforts to establish daily provision of dust forecasts based on multi-model ensembles. The various models are introduced and described along with an overview on the importance of dust prediction activities and a historical perspective. Assimilation and evaluation aspects in dust prediction are also discussed.

Description: Although many improvements have been made in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), clouds remain a significant source of uncertainty in general circulation models (GCMs) because their structural and optical properties are strongly dependent upon interactions between aerosol/cloud microphysics and dynamics that are unresolved in such models. Recent changes to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) turbulence and moist convection parameterizations in the NASA GISS Model E2 atmospheric GCM(post-CMIP5, hereafter P5) have improved cloud simulations significantly compared to its CMIP5 (hereafter C5) predecessor. A study has been performed to evaluate these changes between the P5 and C5 versions of the GCM, both of which used prescribed sea surface temperatures. P5 and C5 simulated cloud fraction (CF), liquid water path (LWP), ice water path (IWP), cloud water path (CWP), precipitable water vapor (PWV), and relative humidity (RH) have been compared to multiple satellite observations including the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System-Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (CERES-MODIS, hereafter CM), CloudSat- Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO; hereafter CC), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E). Although some improvements are observed in the P5 simulation on a global scale, large improvements have been found over the southern midlatitudes (SMLs), where correlations increased and both bias and root-mean-square error (RMSE) significantly decreased, in relation to the previous C5 simulation, when compared to observations. Changes to the PBL scheme have resulted in improved total column CFs, particularly over the SMLs where marine boundary layer (MBL) CFs have increased by nearly 20% relative to the previous C5 simulation. Globally, the P5 simulated CWPs are 25 gm22 lower than the previous C5 results. The P5 version of the GCM simulates PWV and RH higher than its C5 counterpart and agrees well with the AMSR-E and AIRS observations. The moister atmospheric conditions simulated by P5 are consistent with the CF comparison and provide a strong support for the increase in MBL clouds over the SMLs. Over the tropics, the P5 version of the GCM simulated total column CFs and CWPs are slightly lower than the previous C5 results, primarily as a result of the shallower tropical boundary layer in P5 relative to C5 in regions outside the marine stratocumulus decks.

Description: Sensitivities of the oceanic biological pump within the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies ) climate modeling system are explored here. Results are presented from twin control simulations of the air-sea CO2 gas exchange using two different ocean models coupled to the same atmosphere. The two ocean models (Russell ocean model and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, HYCOM) use different vertical coordinate systems, and therefore different representations of column physics. Both variants of the GISS climate model are coupled to the same ocean biogeochemistry module (the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model, NOBM), which computes prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air-sea flux of CO2 and the deep ocean carbon transport and storage. In particular, the model differences due to remineralization rate changes are compared to differences attributed to physical processes modeled differently in the two ocean models such as ventilation, mixing, eddy stirring and vertical advection. GISSEH(GISSER) is found to underestimate mixed layer depth compared to observations by about 55% (10 %) in the Southern Ocean and overestimate it by about 17% (underestimate by 2%) in the northern high latitudes. Everywhere else in the global ocean, the two models underestimate the surface mixing by about 12-34 %, which prevents deep nutrients from reaching the surface and promoting primary production there. Consequently, carbon export is reduced because of reduced production at the surface. Furthermore, carbon export is particularly sensitive to remineralization rate changes in the frontal regions of the subtropical gyres and at the Equator and this sensitivity in the model is much higher than the sensitivity to physical processes such as vertical mixing, vertical advection and mesoscale eddy transport. At depth, GISSER, which has a significant warm bias, remineralizes nutrients and carbon faster thereby producing more nutrients and carbon at depth, which eventually resurfaces with the global thermohaline circulation especially in the Southern Ocean. Because of the reduced primary production and carbon export in GISSEH compared to GISSER, the biological pump efficiency, i.e., the ratio of primary production and carbon export at 75 m, is half in the GISSEH of that in GISSER, The Southern Ocean emerges as a key region where the CO2 flux is as sensitive to biological parameterizations as it is to physical parameterizations. The fidelity of ocean mixing in the Southern Ocean compared to observations is shown to be a good indicator of the magnitude of the biological pump efficiency regardless of physical model choice.

Description: Reliable prediction of contra-rotating open rotor (CROR) noise is an essential element of any strategy for the development of low-noise open rotor propulsion systems that can meet both the community noise regulations and the cabin noise limits. Since CROR noise spectra typically exhibits a preponderance of tones, significant efforts have been directed towards predicting their tone spectra. To that end, there has been an ongoing effort at NASA to assess various in-house open rotor tone noise prediction tools using a benchmark CROR blade set for which significant aerodynamic and acoustic data had been acquired in wind tunnel tests. In the work presented here, the focus is on the near-field noise of the benchmark open rotor blade set at the cruise condition. Using an analytical CROR tone noise model with input from high-fidelity aerodynamic simulations, detailed tone noise spectral predictions have been generated and compared with the experimental data. Comparisons indicate that the theoretical predictions are in good agreement with the data, especially for the dominant CROR tones and their overall sound pressure level. The results also indicate that, whereas individual rotor tones are well predicted by the linear sources (i.e., thickness and loading), for the interaction tones it is essential that the quadrupole sources be included in the analysis.

Description: In this presentation, we will show AIRS Version-6 area weighted anomaly time series over the time period September 2002 through August 2014 of atmospheric temperature and water vapor profiles as a function of height. These anomaly time series show very different behaviors in the stratosphere and in the troposphere. Tropical mean stratospheric temperature anomaly time series are very strongly influenced by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) with large anomalies that propagate downward from 1 mb to 100 mb with a period of about two years. AIRS stratospheric temperature anomalies are in good agreement with those obtained by MLS over a common period. Tropical mean tropospheric temperature profile anomalies appear to be totally disconnected from those of the stratosphere and closely follow El Nino La Nina activity.

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Description: The Global Core Plasma Model (GCPM) is the first empirical model for thermal inner magnetospheric plasma designed to integrate previous models and observations into a continuous in value and gradient representation of typical total densities. New information about the plasmasphere, in particular, make possible significant improvement. The IMAGE Mission Radio Plasma Imager (RPI) has obtained the first observations of total plasma densities along magnetic field lines in the plasmasphere and polar cap. Dynamics Explorer 1 Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer (RIMS) has provided densities in temperatures in the plasmasphere for 5 ion species. These and other works enable a new more detailed empirical model of thermal in the inner magnetosphere that will be presented. Specifically shown here are the inner-plasmasphere RIMS measurements, radial fits to densities and temperatures for H(+), He(+), He(++), O(+), and O(+) and the error associated with these initial simple fits. Also shown are more subtle dependencies on the f10.7 P-value (see Richards et al. [1994]).

Description: It is hypothesized that microphysical predictions have greater uncertainties/errors when there are complex interactions that result from mixedphased processes like riming. Use Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission ground validation studies in Ontario, Canada to verify and improve parameterizations

Description: Soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) instrument are assimilated into the Noah land surface model (LSM) within the NASA Land Information System (LIS). Before assimilation, SMOS retrievals are bias-corrected to match the model climatological distribution using a Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) matching approach. Data assimilation is done via the Ensemble Kalman Filter. The goal is to improve the representation of soil moisture within the LSM, and ultimately to improve numerical weather forecasts through better land surface initialization. We present a case study showing a large area of irrigation in the lower Mississippi River Valley, in an area with extensive rice agriculture. High soil moisture value in this region are observed by SMOS, but not captured in the forcing data. After assimilation, the model fields reflect the observed geographic patterns of soil moisture. Plans for a modeling experiment and operational use of the data are given. This work helps prepare for the assimilation of Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) retrievals in the near future.

Description: Large-scale models such as GEOS-5 typically calculate grid-scale fractional cloudiness through a PDF parameterization of the sub-gridscale distribution of specific humidity. The GEOS-5 moisture routine uses a simple rectangular PDF varying in height that follows a tanh profile. While below 10 km this profile is informed by moisture information from the AIRS instrument, there is relatively little empirical basis for the profile above that level. ATTREX provides an opportunity to refine the profile using estimates of the horizontal variability of measurements of water vapor, total water and ice particles from the Global Hawk aircraft at or near the tropopause. These measurements will be compared with estimates of large-scale cloud fraction from CALIPSO and lidar retrievals from the CPL on the aircraft. We will use the variability measurements to perform studies of the sensitivity of the GEOS-5 cloud-fraction to various modifications to the PDF shape and to its vertical profile.

Description: The availability of GODAE Oceanview-type ocean forecast systems provides the opportunity to develop high-resolution, short- to medium-range coupled prediction systems. Several groups have undertaken the first experiments based on relatively unsophisticated approaches. Progress is being driven at the institutional level targeting a range of applications that represent their respective national interests with clear overlaps and opportunities for information exchange and collaboration. These include general circulation, hurricanes, extra-tropical storms, high-latitude weather and sea-ice forecasting as well as coastal air-sea interaction. In some cases, research has moved beyond case and sensitivity studies to controlled experiments to obtain statistically significant metrics.

Description: Climate models projected stronger warming over the past 15 years than has been seen in observations. Conspiring factors of errors in volcanic and solar inputs, representations of aerosols, and El NiNo evolution, may explain most of the discrepancy.

Description: Convection is the primary transport process in the Earth's atmosphere. About two-thirds of the Earth's rainfall and severe floods derive from convection. In addition, two-thirds of the global rain falls in the tropics, while the associated latent heat release accounts for three-fourths of the total heat energy for the Earth's atmosphere. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) have been used to improve our understanding of cloud and precipitation processes and phenomena from micro-scale to cloud-scale and mesoscale as well as their interactions with radiation and surface processes. CRMs use sophisticated and realistic representations of cloud microphysical processes and can reasonably well resolve the time evolution, structure, and life cycles of clouds and cloud systems. CRMs also allow for explicit interaction between clouds, outgoing longwave (cooling) and incoming solar (heating) radiation, and ocean and land surface processes. Observations are required to initialize CRMs and to validate their results. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE) has been developed and improved at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center over the past three decades. It is amulti-dimensional non-hydrostatic CRM that can simulate clouds and cloud systems in different environments. Early improvements and testing were presented in Tao and Simpson (1993) and Tao et al. (2003a). A review on the application of the GCE to the understanding of precipitation processes can be found in Simpson and Tao (1993) and Tao (2003). In this paper, recent model improvements (microphysics, radiation and land surface processes) are described along with their impact and performance on cloud and precipitation events in different geographic locations via comparisons with observations. In addition, recent advanced applications of the GCE are presented that include understanding the physical processes responsible for diurnal variation, examining the impact of aerosols (cloud condensation nuclei or CCN and ice nuclei or IN) on precipitation processes, utilizing a satellite simulator to improve the microphysics, providing better simulations for satellite-derived latent heating retrieval, and coupling with a general circulation model to improve the representation of precipitation processes.

Description: Several minimum-mass aeroelastic optimization problems are solved to evaluate the effectiveness of a variety of novel tailoring schemes for subsonic transport wings. Aeroelastic strength and panel buckling constraints are imposed across a variety of trimmed maneuver loads. Tailoring with metallic thickness variations, functionally graded materials, composite laminates, tow steering, and distributed trailing edge control effectors are all found to provide reductions in structural wing mass with varying degrees of success. The question as to whether this wing mass reduction will offset the increased manufacturing cost is left unresolved for each case.

Description: Using the water isotope- and vapor source distribution (VSD) tracer-enabled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R, we examine changing El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like expressions in the hydrological cycle in a suite of model experiments. We apply strong surface temperature anomalies associated with composite observed El Nino and La Nina events as surface boundary conditions to preindustrial and mid-Holocene model experiments in order to investigate ENSO-like expressions in the hydrological cycle under varying boundary conditions. We find distinct simulated hydrological anomalies associated with El Nino-like ("ENSOWARM") and La Nina-like ("ENSOCOOL") conditions, and the region-specific VSD tracers show hydrological differences across the Pacific basin between El Nino-like and La Nina-like events. The application of ENSOCOOL forcings does not produce climatological anomalies that represent the equal but opposite impacts of the ENSOWARM experiment, as the isotopic anomalies associated with ENSOWARM conditions are generally stronger than with ENSOCOOL and the spatial patterns of change distinct. Also, when the same ENSO-like surface temperature anomalies are imposed on the mid-Holocene, the hydrological response is muted, relative to the preindustrial. Mid-Holocene changes in moisture sources to the analyzed regions across the Pacific reveal potentially complex relationships between ENSO-like conditions and boundary conditions. Given the complex impacts of ENSO-like conditions on various aspects of the hydrological cycle, we suggest that proxy record insights into paleo-ENSO variability are most likely to be robust when synthesized from a network of many spatially diverse archives, which can account for the potential nonstationarity of ENSO teleconnections under different boundary conditions.

Description: Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a significant spread among the models. By using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar amplification, and the stratospheric wind change on SLP. We find that the intermodel spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in Arctic SLP change. The role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in SLP change is supported by the fact that the SLP change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. Taken together, these findings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes.

Description: The Global Modeling and Assimilation Offce (GMAO) is currently using an IAU-based 3D-Var data assimilation system. GMAO has been experimenting with a 3D-Var-hybrid version of its data assimilation system (DAS) for over a year now, which will soon become operational and it will rapidly progress toward a 4D-EnVar. Concurrently, the machinery to exercise traditional 4DVar is in place and it is desirable to have a comparison of the traditional 4D approach with the other available options, and evaluate their performance in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) DAS. This work will also explore the possibility for constructing a reduced order model (ROM) to make traditional 4D-Var computationally attractive for increasing model resolutions. Part of the research on ROM will be to search for a suitably acceptable space to carry on the corresponding reduction. This poster illustrates how the IAU-based 4D-Var assimilation compares with our currently used IAU-based 3D-Var.

Description: Two recent papers have quantified long-term ozone (O3) changes observed at northernmidlatitude sites that are believed to represent baseline (here understood as representative of continental to hemispheric scales) conditions. Three chemistry-climate models (NCAR CAM-chem, GFDL-CM3, and GISS-E2-R) have calculated retrospective tropospheric O3 concentrations as part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model intercomparisons. We present an approach for quantitative comparisons of model results with measurements for seasonally averaged O3 concentrations. There is considerable qualitative agreement between the measurements and the models, but there are also substantial and consistent quantitative disagreements. Most notably, models (1) overestimate absolute O3 mixing ratios, on average by approximately 5 to 17 ppbv in the year 2000, (2) capture only approximately 50% of O3 changes observed over the past five to six decades, and little of observed seasonal differences, and (3) capture approximately 25 to 45% of the rate of change of the long-term changes. These disagreements are significant enough to indicate that only limited confidence can be placed on estimates of present-day radiative forcing of tropospheric O3 derived from modeled historic concentration changes and on predicted future O3 concentrations. Evidently our understanding of tropospheric O3, or the incorporation of chemistry and transport processes into current chemical climate models, is incomplete. Modeled O3 trends approximately parallel estimated trends in anthropogenic emissions of NO(sub x), an important O3 precursor, while measured O3 changes increase more rapidly than these emission estimates.

Description: An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is a pure modeling study used when actual observations are too expensive or difficult to obtain. OSSEs are valuable tools for determining the potential impact of new observing systems on numerical weather forecasts and for evaluation of data assimilation systems (DAS). An OSSE has been developed at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO, Errico et al 2013). The GMAO OSSE uses a 13-month integration of the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts 2005 operational model at T511/L91 resolution for the Nature Run (NR). Synthetic observations have been updated so that they are based on real observations during the summer of 2013. The emulated observation types include AMSU-A, MHS, IASI, AIRS, and HIRS4 radiance data, GPS-RO, and conventional types including aircraft, rawinsonde, profiler, surface, and satellite winds. The synthetic satellite wind observations are colocated with the NR cloud fields, and the rawinsondes are advected during ascent using the NR wind fields. Data counts for the synthetic observations are matched as closely as possible to real data counts, as shown in Figure 2. Errors are added to the synthetic observations to emulate representativeness and instrument errors. The synthetic errors are calibrated so that the statistics of observation innovation and analysis increments in the OSSE are similar to the same statistics for assimilation of real observations, in an iterative method described by Errico et al (2013). The standard deviations of observation minus forecast (xo-H(xb)) are compared for the OSSE and real data in Figure 3. The synthetic errors include both random, uncorrelated errors, and an additional correlated error component for some observational types. Vertically correlated errors are included for conventional sounding data and GPS-RO, and channel correlated errors are introduced to AIRS and IASI (Figure 4). HIRS, AMSU-A, and MHS have a component of horizontally correlated error. The forecast model used by the GMAO OSSE is the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) DAS. The model version has been updated to v. 5.13.3, corresponding to the current operational model. Forecasts are run on a cube-sphere grid with 180 points along each edge of the cube (approximately 0.5 degree horizontal resolution) with 72 vertical levels. The DAS is cycled at 6-hour intervals, with 240 hour forecasts launched daily at 0000 UTC. Evaluation of the forecasting skill for July and August is currently underway. Prior versions of the GMAO OSSE have been found to have greater forecasting skill than real world forecasts. It is anticipated that similar forecast skill will be found in the updated OSSE.

Description: African dust can transport across the tropical Atlantic and reach the Amazon basin, exerting far-reaching impacts on climate in downwind regions. The transported dust influences the surface-atmosphere interactions and cloud and precipitation processes through perturbing the surface radiative budget and atmospheric radiative heating and acting as cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei. Dust also influences biogeochemical cycle and climate through providing nutrients vital to the productivity of ocean biomass and Amazon forests. Assessing these climate impacts relies on an accurate quantification of dust transport and deposition. Currently model simulations show extremely large diversity, which calls for a need of observational constraints. Kaufman et al. (2005) estimated from MODIS aerosol measurements that about 144 Tg of dust is deposited into the tropical Atlantic and 50 Tg of dust into the Amazon in 2001. This estimated dust import to Amazon is a factor of 3-4 higher than other observations and models. However, several studies have argued that the oversimplified characterization of dust vertical profile in the study would have introduced large uncertainty and very likely a high bias. In this study we quantify the trans-Atlantic dust transport and deposition by using 7 years (2007-2013) observations from CALIPSO lidar. CALIPSO acquires high-resolution aerosol extinction and depolarization profiles in both cloud-free and above-cloud conditions. The unique CALIPSO capability of profiling aerosols above clouds offers an unprecedented opportunity of examining uncertainties associated with the use of MODIS clear-sky data. Dust is separated from other types of aerosols using the depolarization measurements. We estimated that on the basis of 7-year average, 118142 Tg of dust is deposited into the tropical Atlantic and 3860 Tg of dust into the Amazon basin. Substantial interannual variations are observed during the period, with the maximum to minimum ratio of about 1.6 and 2.5 for the deposition to the tropical Atlantic and Amazon, respectively. The MODIS-based estimates appear to fall within the range of CALIPSO-based estimates; and the difference between MODIS and CALIPSO estimates can be largely attributed to the interannual variability, which is corroborated by long-term surface dust concentration observations in the tropical Atlantic. Considering that CALIPSO generally tends to underestimate the aerosol loading, our estimate is likely to represent a low bound for the dust transport and deposition estimate. The finding suggests that models have substantial biases and considerable effort is needed to improve model simulations of dust cycle.

Description: The adjustment of parameterized gravity waves associated with model convection and finer vertical resolution has made possible the generation of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in two Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) models, GISS Middle Atmosphere Global Climate Model III and a climate/middle atmosphere version of Model E2. Both extend from the surface to 0.002 hPa, with 2deg 2.5deg resolution and 102 layers. Many realistic features of the QBO are simulated, including magnitude and variability of its period and amplitude. The period itself is affected by the magnitude of parameterized convective gravity wave momentum fluxes and interactive ozone (which also affects the QBO amplitude and variability), among other forcings. Although varying sea surface temperatures affect the parameterized momentum fluxes, neither aspect is responsible for the modeled variation in QBO period. Both the parameterized and resolved waves act to produce the respective easterly and westerly wind descent, although their effect is offset in altitude at each level. The modeled and observed QBO influences on tracers in the stratosphere, such as ozone, methane, and water vapor are also discussed. Due to the link between the gravity wave parameterization and the models' convection, and the dependence on the ozone field, the models may also be used to investigate how the QBO may vary with climate change.

Description: This paper presents results from computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations of a three-stream plug nozzle. Time-accurate, Euler, quasi-1D and 2D-axisymmetric simulations were performed as part of an effort to provide a CFD-based approach to modeling nozzle dynamics. The CFD code used for the simulations is based on the space-time Conservation Element and Solution Element (CESE) method. Steady-state results were validated using the Wind-US code and a code utilizing the MacCormack method while the unsteady results were partially validated via an aeroacoustic benchmark problem. The CESE steady-state flow field solutions showed excellent agreement with solutions derived from the other methods and codes while preliminary unsteady results for the three-stream plug nozzle are also shown. Additionally, a study was performed to explore the sensitivity of gross thrust computations to the control surface definition. The results showed that most of the sensitivity while computing the gross thrust is attributed to the control surface stencil resolution and choice of stencil end points and not to the control surface definition itself.Finally, comparisons between the quasi-1D and 2D-axisymetric solutions were performed in order to gain insight on whether a quasi-1D solution can capture the steady and unsteady nozzle phenomena without the cost of a 2D-axisymmetric simulation. Initial results show that while the quasi-1D solutions are similar to the 2D-axisymmetric solutions, the inability of the quasi-1D simulations to predict two dimensional phenomena limits its accuracy.

Description: No abstract available

Description: Supersonic inlets with external compression, having a good level performance at the critical operating point, exhibit a marked instability of the flow in some subcritical operation below a critical value of the capture mass flow ratio. This takes the form of severe oscillations of the shock system, commonly known as "buzz". The underlying purpose of this study is to indicate how Detached Eddy Simulation (DES) analysis of supersonic inlets will alter how we envision unsteady inlet aerodynamics, particularly inlet buzz. Presented in this paper is a discussion regarding the physical explanation underlying inlet buzz as indicated by DES analysis. It is the normal shock wave boundary layer separation along the spike surface which reduces the capture mass flow that is the controlling mechanism which determines the onset of inlet buzz, and it is the aerodynamic characteristics of a choked nozzle that provide the feedback mechanism that sustains the buzz cycle by imposing a fixed mean corrected inlet weight flow. Comparisons between the DES analysis of the Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMCO) N+2 inlet and schlieren photographs taken during the test of the Gulfstream Large Scale Low Boom (LSLB) inlet in the NASA 8x6 ft. Supersonic Wind Tunnel (SWT) show a strong similarity both in turbulent flow field structure and shock wave formation during the buzz cycle. This demonstrates the value of DES analysis for the design and understanding of supersonic inlets.

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Description: NASA's LSP and other programs at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) use wind forecasts issued by the 30th Operational Support Squadron (30 OSS) to determine if they need to limit activities or protect property such as a launch vehicle due to the occurrence of warning level winds at VAFB in California. The 30 OSS tasked the AMU to provide a wind forecasting capability to improve wind warning forecasts and enhance the safety of their customers' operations. This would allow 30 OSS forecasters to evaluate pressure gradient thresholds between pairs of regional observing stations to help determine the onset and duration of warning category winds. Development of such a tool will require that solid relationships exist between wind speed and the pressure gradient of one or more station pairs. As part of this task, the AMU will also create a statistical climatology of meteorological observations from the VAFB wind towers.

Description: No abstract available

Description: We introduce global cloud regimes (previously also referred to as "weather states") derived from cloud retrievals that use measurements by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard the Aqua and Terra satellites. The regimes are obtained by applying clustering analysis on joint histograms of retrieved cloud top pressure and cloud optical thickness. By employing a compositing approach on data sets from satellites and other sources, we examine regime structural and thermodynamical characteristics. We establish that the MODIS cloud regimes tend to form in distinct dynamical and thermodynamical environments and have diverse profiles of cloud fraction and water content. When compositing radiative fluxes from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System instrument and surface precipitation from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, we find that regimes with a radiative warming effect on the atmosphere also produce the largest implied latent heat. Taken as a whole, the results of the study corroborate the usefulness of the cloud regime concept, reaffirm the fundamental nature of the regimes as appropriate building blocks for cloud system classification, clarify their association with standard cloud types, and underscore their distinct radiative and hydrological signatures.

Description: The goal of this presentation is to help the Teachers in Space candidates understand Space Weather and its implications for flight.

Description: From May 2011 through July 2013, the lightning instrumentation at Launch Complex 39B (LC39B) at the Kennedy Space Center, Florida, has obtained high-speed video records and field change waveforms (dE/dt and three-axis dH/dt) for 54 negative polarity return strokes whose strike termination locations and times are known with accuracy of the order of 10 m or less and 1 s, respectively. A total of 18 strokes terminated directly to the LC39B lighting protection system (LPS), which contains three 181 m towers in a triangular configuration, an overhead catenary wire system on insulating masts, and nine down conductors. An additional 9 strokes terminated on the 106 m lightning protection mast of Launch Complex 39A (LC39A), which is located about 2.7 km southeast of LC39B. The remaining 27 return strokes struck either on the ground or attached to low-elevation grounded objects within about 500 m of the LC39B LPS. Leader/return stroke sequences were imaged at 3200 frames/sec by a network of six Phantom V310 high-speed video cameras. Each of the three towers on LC39B had two high-speed cameras installed at the 147 m level with overlapping fields of view of the center of the pad. The locations of the strike points of 54 return strokes have been compared to time-correlated reports of the Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) and the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), and the results of this comparison will be presented and discussed.

Description: Halos at 22 deg from the sun attributed to randomly-orientated, pristine hexagonal crystals are frequently observed through ice clouds. These frequent sightings of halos formed by pristine crystals pose an apparent inconsistency with the dominance of distorted, nonpristine ice crystals indicated by in situ and remote sensing data. Furthermore, the 46 deg halo, which is associated with pristine hexagonal crystals as well, is observed far less frequently than the 22 deg halo. Considering that plausible mechanisms that could cause crystal distortion such as aggregation, sublimation, riming and collisions are stochastic processes that likely lead to distributions of crystals with varying distortion levels, here the presence of the 22 deg and 46 deg halo features in phase functions of mixtures of pristine and distorted hexagonal ice crystals is examined. We conclude that the 22 deg halo feature is generally present if the contribution by pristine crystals to the total scattering cross section is greater than only about 10% in the case of compact particles or columns, and greater than about 40% for plates. The 46 deg halo feature is present only if the mean distortion level is low and the contribution of pristine crystals to the total scattering cross section is above about 20%, 50% and 70%, in the case of compact crystals, plates and columns, respectively. These results indicate that frequent sightings of 22 deg halos are not inconsistent with the observed dominance of distorted, non-pristine ice crystals. Furthermore, the low mean distortion levels and large contributions by pristine crystals needed to produce the 461 halo features provide a potential explanation of the common sighting of the 22 deg halo without any detectable 46 deg halo.

Description: A parameterization is presented that provides extinction cross section sigma (sub e), single-scattering albedo omega, and asymmetry parameter (g) of ice crystals for any combination of volume, projected area, aspect ratio, and crystal distortion at any wavelength in the shortwave. Similar to previous parameterizations, the scheme makes use of geometric optics approximations and the observation that optical properties of complex, aggregated ice crystals can be well approximated by those of single hexagonal crystals with varying size, aspect ratio, and distortion levels. In the standard geometric optics implementation used here, sigma (sub e) is always twice the particle projected area. It is shown that omega is largely determined by the newly defined absorption size parameter and the particle aspect ratio. These dependences are parameterized using a combination of exponential, lognormal, and polynomial functions. The variation of (g) with aspect ratio and crystal distortion is parameterized for one reference wavelength using a combination of several polynomials. The dependences of g on refractive index and omega are investigated and factors are determined to scale the parameterized (g) to provide values appropriate for other wavelengths. The parameterization scheme consists of only 88 coefficients. The scheme is tested for a large variety of hexagonal crystals in several wavelength bands from 0.2 to 4 micron, revealing absolute differences with reference calculations of omega and (g) that are both generally below 0.015. Over a large variety of cloud conditions, the resulting root-mean-squared differences with reference calculations of cloud reflectance, transmittance, and absorptance are 1.4%, 1.1%, and 3.4%, respectively. Some practical applications of the parameterization in atmospheric models are highlighted.

Description: Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(sup 1) per degC. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.

Description: Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting climate change in response to a given forcing scenario. Recent analyses have suggested that transient climate sensitivity is at the low end of the present model range taking into account the reduced warming rates during the past 10-15 years during which forcing has increased markedly. In contrast, comparisons of modelled feedback processes with observations indicate that the most realistic models have higher sensitivities. Here I analyse results from recent climate modelling intercomparison projects to demonstrate that transient climate sensitivity to historical aerosols and ozone is substantially greater than the transient climate sensitivity to CO2. This enhanced sensitivity is primarily caused by more of the forcing being located at Northern Hemisphere middle to high latitudes where it triggers more rapid land responses and stronger feedbacks. I find that accounting for this enhancement largely reconciles the two sets of results, and I conclude that the lowest end of the range of transient climate response to CO2 in present models and assessments (less than 1.3 C) is very unlikely.

Description: Regional droughts are common in North America, but pan-continental droughts extending across multiple regions, including the 2012 event, are rare relative to single-region events. Here, the tree-ring-derived North American Drought Atlas is used to investigate drought variability in four regions over the last millennium, focusing on pan-continental droughts. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the central plains (CP), Southwest (SW), and Southeast (SE) regions experienced drier conditions and increased occurrence of droughts and the Northwest (NW) experienced several extended pluvials. Enhanced MCA aridity in the SW and CP manifested as multidecadal megadroughts. Notably, megadroughts in these regions differed in their timing and persistence, suggesting that they represent regional events influenced by local dynamics rather than a unified, continental-scale phenomena. There is no trend in pan-continental drought occurrence, defined as synchronous droughts in three or more regions. SW, CP, and SE (SW+CP+SE) droughts are the most common, occurring in 12 percent of all years and peaking in prevalence during the twelfth and thirteenth centuries; patterns involving three other regions occur in about 8 percent of years. Positive values of the Southern Oscillation index (La Nina conditions) are linked to SW, CP, and SE (SW+CP+SE) droughts and SW, CP, and NW (SW+CP+NW) droughts, whereas CP, NW, and SE (CP+NW+SE) droughts are associated with positive values of the Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. While relatively rare, pan-continental droughts are present in the paleo record and are linked to defined modes of climate variability, implying the potential for seasonal predictability. Assuming stable drought teleconnections, these events will remain an important feature of future North American hydroclimate, possibly increasing in their severity in step with other expected hydroclimate responses to increased greenhouse gas forcing.

Description: No abstract available

Description: The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; this conference) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end-to-end physical and dynamical basis for coupling total lightning flash rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relationship to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation-sized ice mass, etc.; however, their relationship specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

Description: How much ice is there in the Tropical Tropopause layer, globally? How does one begin to answer that question? Clouds are currently the largest source of uncertainty in climate models, and the ice water content (IWC) of cold cirrus clouds is needed to understand the total water and radiation budgets of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS). The Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite, originally a "pathfinder" mission only expected to last for three years, has now been operational for more than eight years. Lidar data from CALIPSO can provide information about how IWC is vertically distributed in the UT/LS, and about inter-annual variability and seasonal changes in cloud ice. However, cloud IWC is difficult to measure accurately with either remote or in situ instruments because IWC from cold cirrus clouds is derived from the particle cross-sectional area or visible extinction coefficient. Assumptions must be made about the relationship between the area, volume and density of ice particles with various crystal habits. Recently there have been numerous aircraft field campaigns providing detailed information about cirrus ice water content from cloud probes. This presentation evaluates the assumptions made when creating the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) global IWC data set, using recently reanalyzed aircraft particle probe measurements of very cold, thin TTL cirrus from the 2006 CR-AVE.

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Description: The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaign in 2012 provided a plethora of aircraft and ground-based observations (e.g., trace gases, lightning and radar) to study deep convective storms, their convective transport of trace gases, and associated lightning occurrence and production of nitrogen oxides (NOx). Based on the measurements taken of the 29-30 May 2012 Oklahoma thunderstorm, an analysis against a Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model simulation of the same event at 3-km horizontal resolution was performed. One of the main objectives was to include various flash rate parameterization schemes (FRPSs) in the model and identify which scheme(s) best captured the flash rates observed by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array (LMA). The comparison indicates how well the schemes predicted the timing, location, and number of lightning flashes. The FRPSs implemented in the model were based on the simulated thunderstorms physical features, such as maximum vertical velocity, cloud top height, and updraft volume. Adjustment factors were added to each FRPS to best capture the observed flash trend and a sensitivity study was performed to compare the range in model-simulated lightning-generated nitrogen oxides (LNOx) generated by each FRPS over the storms lifetime. Based on the best FRPS, model-simulated LNOx was compared against aircraft measured NOx. The trace gas analysis, along with the increased detail in the model specification of the vertical distribution of lightning flashes as suggested by the LMA data, provide guidance in determining the scenario of NO production per intracloud and cloud-to-ground flash that best matches the NOx mixing ratios observed by the aircraft.

Description: No abstract available

Description: The goal of this project is to serve the needs of space system designers and operators by developing an interplanetary radiation environment model within 10 AU:Radiation, Interplanetary Shocks, and Coronal Sources (RISCS) toolset: (1) The RISCS toolset will provide specific reference environments for space system designers and nowcasting and forecasting capabilities for space system operators; (2) We envision the RISCS toolset providing the spatial and temporal radiation environment external to the Earth's (and other planets') magnetosphere, as well as possessing the modularity to integrate separate applications (apps) that can map to specific magnetosphere locations and/or perform the subsequent radiation transport and dosimetry for a specific target.

Description: No abstract available

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Description: Convection-allowing numerical weather simula- tions have often been shown to produce convective storms that have significant sensitivity to choices of model physical parameterizations. Among the most important of these sensitivities are those related to cloud microphysics, but planetary boundary layer parameterizations also have a significant impact on the evolution of the convection. Aspects of the simulated convection that display sensitivity to these physics schemes include updraft size and intensity, simulated radar reflectivity, timing and placement of storm initi- ation and decay, total storm rainfall, and other storm features derived from storm structure and hydrometeor fields, such as predicted lightning flash rates. In addition to the basic parameters listed above, the simulated storms may also exhibit sensitivity to im- posed initial conditions, such as the fields of soil temper- ature and moisture, vegetation cover and health, and sea and lake water surface temperatures. Some of these sensitivities may rival those of the basic physics sensi- tivities mentioned earlier. These sensitivities have the potential to disrupt the accuracy of short-term forecast simulations of convective storms, and thereby pose sig- nificant difficulties for weather forecasters. To make a systematic study of the quantitative impacts of each of these sensitivities, a matrix of simulations has been performed using all combinations of eight separate microphysics schemes, three boundary layer schemes, and two sets of initial conditions. The first version of initial conditions consists of the default data from large-scale operational model fields, while the second features specialized higher- resolution soil conditions, vegetation conditions and water surface temperatures derived from datasets created at NASA's Short-term Prediction and Operational Research Tran- sition (SPoRT) Center at the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, AL. Simulations as outlined above, each 48 in number, were conducted for five midsummer weakly sheared coastal convective events each at two sites, Mobile, AL (MOB) and Houston, TX (HGX). Of special interest to operational forecasters at MOB and HGX were accuracy of timing and placement of convective storm initiation, reflectivity magnitudes and coverage, rainfall and inferred lightning threat.

Description: Flooding and drought are two key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS). Atmospheric processes leading to excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be quite sensitive to the state of the land surface, which interacts with the planetary boundary layer (PBL) of the atmosphere providing a source of heat and moisture. The development and evolution of precipitation systems are affected by heat and moisture fluxes from the land surface, particularly within weakly-sheared environments such as in the tropics and sub-tropics. These heat and moisture fluxes during the day can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content. Therefore, it is important to represent the land surface state as accurately as possible in land surface and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve forecast guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather over eastern Africa. KMS currently runs a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) NWP model in real time to support its daily forecasting operations, making use of the NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) to manage and produce the KMS-WRF runs on a regional grid over eastern Africa. Two organizations at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL, SERVIR and the Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, have established a working partnership with KMS for enhancing its regional modeling capabilities through new datasets and tools. To accomplish this goal, SPoRT and SERVIR is providing enhanced, experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities to KMS as part of this collaboration. To produce a land-surface initialization more consistent with the resolution of the KMS-WRF runs, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run at a comparable resolution to provide real-time, daily soil initialization data in place of data interpolated from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) model soil moisture and temperature fields. Additionally, realtime green vegetation fraction (GVF) data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi- NPP) satellite will be incorporated into the KMS-WRF runs, once it becomes publicly available from the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS). Finally, model verification capabilities will be transitioned to KMS using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET; Brown et al. 2009) package in conjunction with a dynamic scripting package developed by SPoRT (Zavodsky et al. 2014), to help quantify possible improvements in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation resulting from the experimental land surface initialization. Furthermore, the transition of these MET tools will enable KMS to monitor model forecast accuracy in near real time. This paper presents preliminary efforts to improve land surface model initialization over eastern Africa in support of operations at KMS. The remainder of this extended abstract is organized as follows: The collaborating organizations involved in the project are described in Section 2; background information on LIS and the configuration for eastern Africa is presented in Section 3; the WRF configuration used in this modeling experiment is described in Section 4; sample experimental WRF output with and without LIS initialization data are given in Section 5; a summary is given in Section 6 followed by acknowledgements and references.

Description: No abstract available

Description: A second wind tunnel test of the FAST-MAC circulation control semi-span model was recently completed in the National Transonic Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center. The model allowed independent control of four circulation control plenums producing a high momentum jet from a blowing slot near the wing trailing edge that was directed over a 15% chord simple-hinged flap. The model was configured for transonic testing of the cruise configuration with 0deg flap deflection to determine the potential for drag reduction with the circulation control blowing. Encouraging results from analysis of wing surface pressures suggested that the circulation control blowing was effective in reducing the transonic drag on the configuration, however this could not be quantified until the thrust generated by the blowing slot was correctly removed from the force and moment balance data. This paper will present the thrust removal methodology used for the FAST-MAC circulation control model and describe the experimental measurements and techniques used to develop the methodology. A discussion on the impact to the force and moment data as a result of removing the thrust from the blowing slot will also be presented for the cruise configuration, where at some Mach and Reynolds number conditions, the thrust-removed corrected data showed that a drag reduction was realized as a consequence of the blowing.

Description: No abstract available

Description: Climate sensitivity in its most basic form is defined as the equilibrium change in global surface temperature that occurs in response to a climate forcing, or externally imposed perturbation of the planetary energy balance. Within this general definition, several specific forms of climate sensitivity exist that differ in terms of the types of climate feedbacks they include. Based on evidence from Earth's history, we suggest here that the relevant form of climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene (e.g. from which to base future greenhouse gas (GHG) stabilization targets) is the Earth system sensitivity including fast feedbacks from changes in water vapour, natural aerosols, clouds and sea ice, slower surface albedo feedbacks from changes in continental ice sheets and vegetation, and climate-GHG feedbacks from changes in natural (land and ocean) carbon sinks. Traditionally, only fast feedbacks have been considered (with the other feedbacks either ignored or treated as forcing), which has led to estimates of the climate sensitivity for doubled CO2 concentrations of about 3 C. The 2CO2 Earth system sensitivity is higher than this, being approx. 4-6 C if the ice sheet/vegetation albedo feedback is included in addition to the fast feedbacks, and higher still if climate-GHG feedbacks are also included. The inclusion of climate-GHG feedbacks due to changes in the natural carbon sinks has the advantage of more directly linking anthropogenic GHG emissions with the ensuing global temperature increase, thus providing a truer indication of the climate sensitivity to human perturbations. The Earth system climate sensitivity is difficult to quantify due to the lack of palaeo-analogues for the present-day anthropogenic forcing, and the fact that ice sheet and climate-GHG feedbacks have yet to become globally significant in the Anthropocene. Furthermore, current models are unable to adequately simulate the physics of ice sheet decay and certain aspects of the natural carbon and nitrogen cycles. Obtaining quantitative estimates of the Earth system sensitivity is therefore a high priority for future work.

Description: The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center in Huntsville, AL (Jedlovec 2013; Ralph et al. 2013; Merceret et al. 2013) is running a real-time configuration of the Noah land surface model (LSM) within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework (hereafter referred to as the "SPoRT-LIS"). Output from the real-time SPoRT-LIS is used for (1) initializing land surface variables for local modeling applications, and (2) displaying in decision support systems for situational awareness and drought monitoring at select NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) partner offices. The SPoRT-LIS is currently run over a domain covering the southeastern half of the Continental United States (CONUS), with an additional experimental real-time run over the entire CONUS and surrounding portions of southern Canada and northern Mexico. The experimental CONUS run incorporates hourly quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) from the National Severe Storms Laboratory Multi- Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) product (Zhang et al. 2011, 2014), which will be transitioned into operations at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in Fall 2014. This paper describes the current and experimental SPoRT-LIS configurations, and documents some of the limitations still remaining through the advent of MRMS precipitation analyses in the SPoRT-LIS land surface model (LSM) simulations. Section 2 gives background information on the NASA LIS and describes the realtime SPoRT-LIS configurations being compared. Section 3 presents recent work done to develop a training module on situational awareness applications of real-time SPoRT-LIS output. Comparisons between output from the two SPoRT-LIS runs are shown in Section 4, including a documentation of issues encountered in using the MRMS precipitation dataset. A summary and future work in given in Section 5, followed by acknowledgements and references.

Description: The National Weather Service (NWS) is deploying its nextgeneration decision support system, called AWIPS II (Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System II). NASA's Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed several software 'plugins' to extend the capabilities of AWIPS II. SPoRT aims to continue its mission of improving shortterm forecasts by providing NASA and NOAA products on the decision support system used at NWS weather forecast offices (WFOs). These products are not included in the standard Satellite Broadcast Network feed provided to WFOs. SPoRT has had success in providing support to WFOs as they have transitioned to AWIPS II. Specific examples of transitioning SPoRT plugins to WFOs with newly deployed AWIPS II systems will be presented. Proving Ground activities (GOESR and JPSS) will dominate SPoRT's future AWIPS II activities, including tool development as well as enhancements to existing products. In early 2012 SPoRT initiated the Experimental Product Development Team, a group of AWIPS II developers from several institutions supporting NWS forecasters with innovative products. The results of the team's spring and fall 2013 meeting will be presented. Since AWIPS II developers now include employees at WFOs, as well as many other institutions related to weather forecasting, the NWS has dealt with a multitude of software governance issues related to the difficulties of multiple remotely collaborating software developers. This presentation will provide additional examples of ResearchtoOperations plugins, as well as an update on how governance issues are being handled in the AWIPS II developer community.

Description: Reduced-order modeling (ROM) methods are applied to the CFD-based aeroelastic analysis of the AGARD 445.6 wing in order to gain insight regarding well-known discrepancies between the aeroelastic analyses and the experimental results. The results presented include aeroelastic solutions using the inviscid CAP-TSD code and the FUN3D code (Euler and Navier-Stokes). Full CFD aeroelastic solutions and ROM aeroelastic solutions, computed at several Mach numbers, are presented in the form of root locus plots in order to better reveal the aeroelastic root migrations with increasing dynamic pressure. Important conclusions are drawn from these results including the ability of the linear CAP-TSD code to accurately predict the entire experimental flutter boundary (repeat of analyses performed in the 1980's), that the Euler solutions at supersonic conditions indicate that the third mode is always unstable, and that the FUN3D Navier-Stokes solutions stabilize the unstable third mode seen in the Euler solutions.

Description: Since 2010, the de facto Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) demonstration product has been the PseudoGeostationary Lightning Mapper (PGLM) product suite. Originally prepared for the Hazardous Weather Testbed's Spring Program (specifically the Experimental Warning Program) when only four groundbased lightning mapping arrays were available, the effort now spans collaborations with several institutions and eight collaborative networks. For 2013, NASA's Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory have worked to collaborate with each network to obtain data in realtime. This has gone into producing the SPoRT variant of the PGLM that was demonstrated in AWIPS II for the 2013 Spring Program. Alongside the PGLM products, the SPoRT / Meteorological Development Laboratory's total lightning tracking tool also was evaluated to assess not just another visualization of future GLM data but how to best extract more information while in the operational environment. Specifically, this tool addressed the leading request by forecasters during evaluations; provide a time series trend of total lightning in realtime. In addition to the Spring Program, SPoRT is providing the PGLM "mosaic" to the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) and Storm Prediction Center. This is the same as what is used at the Hazardous Weather Testbed, but combines all available networks into one display for use at the national centers. This year, the mosaic was evaluated during the AWC's Summer Experiment. An important distinction between this and the Spring Program is that the Summer Experiment focuses on the national center perspective and not at the local forecast office level. Specifically, the Summer Experiment focuses on aviation needs and concerns and brings together operational forecaster, developers, and FAA representatives. This presentation will focus on the evaluation of SPoRT's pseudoGLM products in these separate test beds. The emphasis will be on how future GLM observations can support operations at both the local and national scale and how the PGLM was used in combination with other lightning data sets. Evaluations for the PGLM were quite favorable with forecasters appreciating the high temporal resolution, the ability to look for rapid increases in lightning activity ahead of severe weather, as well as situational awareness for where convection is firing and for flight routing.

Description: The Curiosity rover is exploring 155 km diameter Gale crater and Mt. Sharp, Gale's 5 km high central mound (Fig. 1). This study addresses the formation and erosion history of Mt. Sharp. Gale lies on the topographic dichotomy between the southern highlands and the northern plains - a drop of over 2 km [1,2]. Altitude differences between the north and south rim reflect this regional slope, as do altitude differences between the deep annulus north of Mt. Sharp and the southern crater floor. Orbiter and rover images demonstrate that most exposed areas on Mt. Sharp consist of thin, sub-parallel units interpreted as sedimentary layers [3]. Gale is typical of the 50 large martian craters that have been totally or partially filled with such layers [4,5]. In many craters these sediments have been deeply eroded. Central Peak and Peak Ring: The highest point on Mt. Sharp, near the crater's center, is interpreted as a central peak [6]. The peak has a massive lower portion and a thin, smooth capping deposit (Fig. 2). Gale's size is transitional between martian craters with single central peaks and craters with peak rings approximately half the crater's diameter [2,6]. The boundaries of Mt. Sharp, as well as an arc of hills to the southeast of the mountain, closely match a circle approximately 80 km in diameter (Fig. 3). This morphology suggests that the Gale impact may have formed both a central peak and a partial peak ring, which is covered by the sediments of Mt. Sharp in the north and possibly exposed in the arc of eroded hills in the southeast quadrant (Figs. 3,4).

Description: No abstract available

Description: No abstract available

Description: Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics pararneterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRn Center to select NOAAlNWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boWldary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage oflightuing activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the physics package choices. The design of the experiments thus allows for more direct interpretation of the sensitivities to each possible physics combination. The results should assist forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and correct for possible biases in simulated WRF convection patterns, and help the modeling community refine their model parameterizations.

Description: Aerosols are tiny atmospheric particles that are emitted from various natural and anthropogenic sources. They affect climate through direct and indirect interactions with solar and thermal radiation, clouds, and atmospheric circulation (Solomon et al. 2007). The launch of a variety of sophisticated satellite-based observing systems aboard the Terra, Aqua, Aura, SeaWiFS (see appendix for all acronym expansions), CALIPSO, and other satellites in the late 1990s to mid-2000s through the NASA EOS and other U.S. and non-U.S. programs ushered in a golden era in aerosol research. NASA has been a leader in providing global aerosol characterizations through observations from satellites, ground networks, and field campaigns, as well as from global and regional modeling. AeroCenter (http://aerocenter.gsfc.nasa.gov/), which was formed in 2002 to address the many facets of aerosol research in a collaborative manner, is an interdisciplinary union of researchers (~200 members) at NASA GSFC and other nearby institutions, including NOAA, several universities, and research laboratories. AeroCenter hosts a web-accessible regular seminar series and an annual meeting to present up-to-date aerosol research, including measurement techniques; remote sensing algorithms; modeling development; field campaigns; and aerosol interactions with radiation, clouds, precipitation, climate, biosphere, atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and human health. The 2013 annual meeting was held at the NASA GSFC Visitor Center on 31 May 2013, which coincided with the seventh anniversary of the passing of Yoram Kaufman, a modern pioneer in satellite-based aerosol science and the founder of AeroCenter. The central theme of this year's meeting was "current and future perspectives" of NASA's aerosol science and satellite missions.