ALBERT

Description: The Kalahari Basin in southern Africa - one of the largest basins in Africa, along with the Congo and Chad basins - has attracted attention since David Livingstone traveled through the area in the 1840s. It is a semiarid desert with a large freshwater swampland known as the Okavango Swamp (150 km radius). This prominent megafan (a fan with radii 〉100 km), with its fingers of dark green forests projecting into the dun colors of the dunes of the Kalahari semi-desert, has been well photographed by astronauts over the years. The study area in the northern Kalahari basin is centered on the Okavango megafan of northwest Botswana, whose swampland has become well known as an African wildlife preserve of importance to biology and tourism alike. The Okavango River is unusual because it has deposited not one but two megafans along its course: the Okavango megafan and the Cubango megafan. The Okavango megafan is one of only three well-known megafans in Africa. Megafans on Earth were once thought to be rare, but recent research has documented 68 in Africa alone. Eleven megafans, plus three more candidates, have been documented in the area immediately surrounding the Okavango feature. These 11 megafans occupy the flattest and smoothest terrains adjacent to the neighboring upland and stand out as the darkest areas in the roughness map of the area. Megafan terrains occupy at least 200,000 sq km of the study area. The roughness map shown is based on an algorithm used first on Mars to quantify topographic roughness. Research of Earth's flattest terrains is just beginning with the aid of such maps, and it appears that these terrains are analogous to the flattest regions of Mars. Implications: 1. The variability in depositional style in each subbasin may apply Africa-wide: rift megafan length is dominated by rift width, whereas Owambo subbasin megafans are probably controlled by upland basin size; Zambezi subbasin megafans appear more like foreland basin types, with the position of the trunk river controlling size. 2. These perspectives were successfully applied to identify the largest megafan in the group (Cubango), a fan that was sufficiently overprinted by dunes and dry lakelets not to be detectable remotely. Such undertsanding can probably be applied on Mars, where Earth experience suggests megafans ought to exist. 3. Sweep angles of rivers on megafans drastically change the hydrology in some subbasins: when the Cubango and Kunene rivers were oriented to the Etosha Pan, it was probably a permanent water body. Now that the rivers are oriented away from the basin, 93 percent of the discharge area from the pan's northerly (main) source area is gone. 4. Biotic contact between major river systems was probably controlled by megafans situated on divides: various fish species that originated in the Congo basin are now found in the Upper Zambezi R., and vice versa, apparently because of river switching behavior on the Cassai megafan that has mediated migrations both to the south and the north.

Description: Recent warming has stimulated the productivity of boreal and Arctic vegetation by reducing temperature limitations. However, several studies have hypothesized that warming may have also increased moisture limitations because of intensified summer drought severity. Establishing the connections between warming and drought stress has been difficult because soil moisture observations are scarce. Here we use recently developed gridded datasets of moisture variability to investigate the links between warming and changes in available soil moisture and summer vegetation photosynthetic activity at northern latitudes (greater than 45N) based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) since 1982. Moisture and temperature exert a significant influence on the inter-annual variability of summer NDVI over about 29% (mean r(sup 2) = 0.29 +/ 0.16) and 43% (mean r(sup 2 = 0.25 +/- 0.12) of the northern vegetated land, respectively. Rapid summer warming since the late 1980s (approximately 0.7deg C) has increased evapotranspiration demand and consequently summer drought severity, but contrary to earlier suggestions it has not changed the dominant climate controls of NDVI over time. Furthermore, changes in snow dynamics (accumulation and melting) appear to be more important than increased evaporative demand in controlling changes in summer soil moisture availability and NDVI in moisture-sensitive regions of the boreal forest. In boreal North America, forest NDVI declines are more consistent with reduced snowpack rather than with temperature-induced increases in evaporative demand as suggested in earlier studies. Moreover, summer NDVI variability over about 28% of the northern vegetated land is not significantly associated with moisture or temperature variability, yet most of this land shows increasing NDVI trends. These results suggest that changes in snow accumulation and melt, together with other possibly non-climatic factors are likely to play a significant role in modulating regional ecosystem responses to the projected warming and increase in evapotranspiration demand during the coming decades.

Description: Recent estimates indicate that the Antarctic sea ice cover is expanding at a statistically significant rate with a magnitude one-third as large as the rapid rate of sea ice retreat in the Arctic. However, during the mid-2000s, with several fewer years in the observational record, the trend in Antarctic sea ice extent was reported to be considerably smaller and statistically indistinguishable from zero. Here, we show that much of the increase in the reported trend occurred due to the previously undocumented effect of a change in the way the satellite sea ice observations are processed for the widely used Bootstrap algorithm data set, rather than a physical increase in the rate of ice advance. Specifically, we find that a change in the intercalibration across a 1991 sensor transition when the data set was reprocessed in 2007 caused a substantial change in the long-term trend. Although our analysis does not definitively identify whether this change introduced an error or removed one, the resulting difference in the trends suggests that a substantial error exists in either the current data set or the version that was used prior to the mid- 2000s, and numerous studies that have relied on these observations should be reexamined to determine the sensitivity of their results to this change in the data set. Furthermore, a number of recent studies have investigated physical mechanisms for the observed expansion of the Antarctic sea ice cover. The results of this analysis raise the possibility that much of this expansion may be a spurious artifact of an error in the processing of the satellite observations.

Description: Fires in croplands, plantations, and rangelands contribute significantly to fire emissions in the United States, yet are often overshadowed by wildland fires in efforts to develop inventories or estimate responses to climate change. Here we quantified decadal trends, interannual variability, and seasonality of Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations of active fires (thermal anomalies) as a function of management type in the contiguous U.S. during 2001-2010. We used the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity database to identify active fires within the perimeter of large wildland fires and land cover maps to identify active fires in croplands. A third class of fires defined as prescribed/other included all residual satellite active fire detections. Large wildland fires were the most variable of all three fire types and had no significant annual trend in the contiguous U.S. during 2001-2010. Active fires in croplands, in contrast, increased at a rate of 3.4 percent per year. Cropland and prescribed/other fire types combined were responsible for 77 percent of the total active fire detections within the U.S and were most abundant in the south and southeast. In the west, cropland active fires decreased at a rate of 5.9 percent per year, likely in response to intensive air quality policies. Potential evaporation was a dominant regulator of the interannual variability of large wildland fires, but had a weaker influence on the other two fire types. Our analysis suggests it may be possible to modify landscape fire emissions within the U.S. by influencing the way fires are used in managed ecosystems.

Description: Commodity crop expansion, for both global and domestic urban markets, follows multiple land change pathways entailing direct and indirect deforestation, and results in various social and environmental impacts. Here we compare six published case studies of rapid commodity crop expansion within forested tropical regions. Across cases, between 1.7 percent and 89.5 percent of new commodity cropland was sourced from forestlands. Four main factors controlled pathways of commodity crop expansion: (i) the availability of suitable forestland, which is determined by forest area, agroecological or accessibility constraints, and land use policies, (ii) economic and technical characteristics of agricultural systems, (iii) differences in constraints and strategies between small-scale and large-scale actors, and (iv) variable costs and benefits of forest clearing. When remaining forests were unsuitable for agriculture and/or policies restricted forest encroachment, a larger share of commodity crop expansion occurred by conversion of existing agricultural lands, and land use displacement was smaller. Expansion strategies of large-scale actors emerge from context-specific balances between the search for suitable lands; transaction costs or conflicts associated with expanding into forests or other state-owned lands versus smallholder lands; net benefits of forest clearing; and greater access to infrastructure in already cleared lands. We propose five hypotheses to be tested in further studies: (i) land availability mediates expansion pathways and the likelihood that land use is displaced to distant, rather than to local places; (ii) use of already-cleared lands is favored when commodity crops require access to infrastructure; (iii) in proportion to total agricultural expansion, large-scale actors generate more clearing of mature forests than smallholders; (iv) property rights and land tenure security influence the actors participating in commodity crop expansion, the form of land use displacement, and livelihood outcomes; (v) intensive commodity crops may fail to spare land when inducing displacement. We conclude that understanding pathways of commodity crop expansion is essential to improve land use governance.

Description: The relative importance of heterogeneous and homogeneous ice nucleation for cirrus formation remains an active area of debate in the cloud physics community. From a theoretical perspective, a number of modeling studies have investigated the sensitivity of ice number concentration to the nucleation mechanism and the abundance of ice nuclei. However, these studies typically only addressed ice concentration immediately after ice nucleation. Recent modeling work has shown that the high ice concentrations produced by homogeneous freezing may not persist very long, which is consistent with the low frequency of occurrence of high ice concentrations indicated by cirrus measurements. Here, I use idealized simulations to investigate the impact of ice nucleation mechanism and ice nuclei abundance on the full lifecycle of cirrus clouds. The primary modeling framework used includes different modes of ice nucleation, deposition growth/sublimation, aggregation, sedimentation, and radiation. A limited number of cloud-resolving simulations that treat radiation/dynamics interactions will also been presented. I will show that for typical synoptic situations with mesoscale waves present, the time-averaged cirrus ice crystal size distributions and bulk cloud properties are less sensitive to ice nucleation processes than might be expected from the earlier simple ice nucleation calculations. I will evaluate the magnitude of the ice nuclei impact on cirrus for a range of temperatures and mesoscale wave specifications, and I will discuss the implications for cirrus aerosol indirect effects in general.

Description: The Aerosols-Clouds-Ecosystems (ACE) mission, recommended by the National Research Council's Decadal Survey, calls for a multi-angle, multi-spectral polarimeter devoted to observations of atmospheric aerosols and clouds. In preparation for ACE, NASA funds the deployment of airborne polarimeters, including the Airborne Multi-angle SpectroPolarimeter Imager (AirMSPI), the Passive Aerosol and Cloud Suite (PACS) and the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP). These instruments have been operated together on NASA's ER-2 high altitude aircraft as part of field campaigns such as the POlarimeter DEfinition EXperiment (PODEX) (California, early 2013) and Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS, California and Texas, summer 2013). Our role in these efforts has been to serve as an assessment team performing level 1 (calibrated radiance, polarization) and level 2 (retrieved geophysical parameter) instrument intercomparisons, and to promote unified and generalized calibration, uncertainty assessment and retrieval techniques. We will present our progress in this endeavor thus far and describe upcoming research in 2015.

Description: The quantitative detection of clouds in satellite imagery has a number of important applications in weather analysis. The proper interpretation of satellite imagery for improved situational awareness depends on knowing where the clouds are at all times of the day. Additionally, many products derived from infrared measurements need accurate cloud information to mask out regions where retrieval of geophysical parameters in the atmosphere or on the surface are not possible. Thus, the accurate detection of the presence of clouds in satellite imagery on a global basis is important to the product developers and the operational weather community to support their decisionmaking process. This abstract describes an application of a twochannel bispectral composite threshold (BCT) approach applied to VIIRS imagery. The simplified BCT approach uses only the 10.76 and 3.75 micrometer spectral channels in two spectral tests; a straightforward infrared threshold test with the longwave channel and a shortwave minus longwave channel difference test. The key to the success of this approach as demonstrated in past applications to GOES and MODIS data is the generation of temporally and spatially dependent thresholds used in the tests from a previous number of days at similar observations to the current data. The presentation will present an overview of the approach and intercomparison results with other satellites, methods, and against verification data.

Description: The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment seeks to quantify the relationship between storm physics, lightning characteristics and the production of nitrogen oxides via lightning (LNOx). The focus of this study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern LNOx production, such as flash rate, type and extent across Alabama during DC3. Prior studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate and type is correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed-phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume and graupel mass. More study is required to generalize these relationships in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co-evolving relationship between storm physics, morphology and three-dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for LNOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection Network(TM) (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash rate, flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to multicell thunderstorms over Northern Alabama on two days during DC3 (21 May and 11 June 2012) in which aircraft observations of NOx are available for comparison. The LNOM lightning characteristics and LNOX production estimates are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual-Doppler and polarimetric radar analyses applied to observations from a nearby radar network, including the UAH Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Given complex multicell evolution, particular attention is paid to storm morphology, cell mergers and possible dynamical, microphysical and electrical interaction of individual cells when testing various hypotheses.

Description: The major problem addressed throughout the term was the need to update the group's current website, as it was outdated and required streamlining and modernization. The old Gateway to Astronaut Photography of the Earth website had multiple components, many of which involved searches through expansive databases. The amount of work required to update the website was large and due to a desired release date, assistance was needed to help build new pages and to transfer old information. Additionally, one of the tools listed on the website called Image Detective had been underutilized in the past. It was important to address why the public was not using the tool and how it could potentially become more of a resource for the team. In order to help with updating the website, it was necessary to first learn HTML. After assisting with small edits, I began creating new pages. I utilized the "view page source" and "developer" tools in the internet browser to observe how other websites created their features and to test changes without editing the code. I then edited the code to create an interactive feature on the new page. For the Image Detective Page I began an evaluation of the current page. I also asked my fellow interns and friends at my University to offer their input. I took all of the opinions into account and wrote up a document regarding my recommendations. The recommendations will be considered as I help to improve the Image Detective page for the updated website. In addition to the website, other projects included the need for additional, and updated image collections, along with various project requests. The image collections have been used by educators in the classroom and the impact crater collection was highly requested. The glaciers collection focused mostly on South American glaciers and needed to include more of the earth's many glaciers. The collections had not been updated or created due to the fact that related imagery had not been catalogued. The process of cataloging involves identifying the center point location of the image and feature identification. Other project needs included collecting night images of India in for publishing. Again, many of the images were not catalogued and the database was lacking in night time imagery for that region. The last project was to calculate the size of mega fans in South Africa. Calculating the fan sizes involved several steps. To expedite the study, calculations needed to be made after the base maps had been created. Using data files that included an outline of the mega fans on a topographic map, I opened the file in Photoshop, determined the number of pixels within the outlined area, created a one degree squared box, determined the pixels within the box, converted the pixels within the box to kilometers, and then calculated the fan size using this information. Overall, the internship has been a learning experience for me. I have learned how to use new programs and I developed new skills. These These skills can help me as I enter into the next phase of my career. Learning Photoshop and HTML in addition to coding in Dreamweaver are highly sought after skills that are used in a variety of fields. Additionally, the exposure to different aspects of the team and working with different people helped me to gain a broader set of skills and allowed me to work with people with different experiences. The various projects I have worked on this summer have directly benefitted the team whether it was completing projects they did not have the time to do, or by helping the team reach deadlines sooner. The new website will be the best place to see all of my work as it will include the newly designed pages and will feature my updates to collections.

Description: Chroococcidiopsis Geitler (Geitler 1933) is a genus of cyanobacteria containing desiccation and radiation resistant species. Members of the genus live in habitats ranging from hot and cold deserts to fresh and saltwater environments. Morphology and cell division pattern have historically been used to define the genus. To better understand the genetic and phenotypic diversity of the genus, 15 species were selected that had been previously isolated from different locations, including salt and freshwater environments. Four markers were sequenced from these 15 species, the 16S rRNA, rbcL, desC1 and gltX genes. Phylogenetic trees were generated which identified two distinct clades, a salt-tolerant clade and a freshwater clade. This study demonstrates that the genus is polyphyletic based on saltwater and freshwater phenotypes. To understand the resistance to salt in more details, species were grown on a range of sea salt concentrations which demonstrated that the freshwater species were salt-intolerant whilst the saltwater species required salt for growth. This study shows an increased resolution of the phylogeny of Chroococcidiopsis and provides further evidence that the genus is polyphyletic and should be reclassified to improve clarity in the literature.

Description: Current work on the lightning jump algorithm to be used in GOESR Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)'s data stream is multifaceted due to the intricate interplay between the storm tracking, GLM proxy data, and the performance of the lightning jump itself. This work outlines the progress of the last year, where analysis and performance of the lightning jump algorithm with automated storm tracking and GLM proxy data were assessed using over 700 storms from North Alabama. The cases analyzed coincide with previous semiobjective work performed using total lightning mapping array (LMA) measurements in Schultz et al. (2011). Analysis shows that key components of the algorithm (flash rate and sigma thresholds) have the greatest influence on the performance of the algorithm when validating using severe storm reports. Automated objective analysis using the GLM proxy data has shown probability of detection (POD) values around 60% with false alarm rates (FAR) around 73% using similar methodology to Schultz et al. (2011). However, when applying verification methods similar to those employed by the National Weather Service, POD values increase slightly (69%) and FAR values decrease (63%). The relationship between storm tracking and lightning jump has also been tested in a realtime framework at NSSL. This system includes fully automated tracking by radar alone, realtime LMA and radar observations and the lightning jump. Results indicate that the POD is strong at 65%. However, the FAR is significantly higher than in Schultz et al. (2011) (5080% depending on various tracking/lightning jump parameters) when using storm reports for verification. Given known issues with Storm Data, the performance of the realtime jump algorithm is also being tested with high density radar and surface observations from the NSSL Severe Hazards Analysis & Verification Experiment (SHAVE).

Description: A case study and monthly statistical analysis using sounder data assimilation to improve the Alaska regional weather forecast model are presented. Weather forecast in Alaska faces challenges as well as opportunities. Alaska has a large land with multiple types of topography and coastal area. Weather forecast models must be finely tuned in order to accurately predict weather in Alaska. Being in the high-latitudes provides Alaska greater coverage of polar orbiting satellites for integration into forecasting models than the lower 48. Forecasting marine low stratus clouds is critical to the Alaska aviation and oil industry and is the current focus of the case study. NASA AIRS/CrIS sounder profiles data are used to do data assimilation for the Alaska regional weather forecast model to improve Arctic marine stratus clouds forecast. Choosing physical options for the WRF model is discussed. Preprocess of AIRS/CrIS sounder data for data assimilation is described. Local observation data, satellite data, and global data assimilation data are used to verify and/or evaluate the forecast results by the MET tools Model Evaluation Tools (MET).

Description: The NASA/Shortterm Prediction, Research, and Transition (SPoRT) Program and NOAA/Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) work within the NOAA/Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Proving Ground to demonstrate the unique capabilities of the VIIRS instrument. Very similar to MODIS, the VIIRS instrument provides many highresolution visible and infrared channels in a broad spectrum. In addition, VIIRS is equipped with a lowlight sensor that is able to detect light emissions from the land and atmosphere as well as reflected sunlight by the lunar surface. This band is referred to as the DayNight Band due to the sunlight being used at night to see cloud and topographic features just as one would typically see in daytime visible imagery. NWS forecast offices that collaborate with SPoRT and CIRA have utilized MODIS imagery in operations, but have longed for more frequent passes of polarorbiting data. The VIIRS instrument enhances SPoRT collaborations with WFOs by providing another day and nighttime pass, and at times two additional passes due to its large swath width. This means that multispectral, RGB imagery composites are more readily available to prepare users for their use in GOESR era and highresolution imagery for use in highlatitudes is more frequently able to supplement standard GOES imagery within the SPoRT Hybrid GEOLEO product. The transition of VIIRS also introduces the new DayNight Band capability to forecast operations. An Intensive Evaluation Period (IEP) was conducted in Summer 2013 with a group of "Front Range" NWS offices related to VIIRS nighttime imagery. VIIRS singlechannel imagery is able to better analyze the specific location of fire hotspots and other land features, as well as provide a more true measurement of various cloud and aerosol properties than geostationary measurements, especially at night. Viewed within the SPoRT Hybrid imagery, the VIIRS data allows forecasters to better interpret the more frequent, but coarse GOES Imagery. Nighttime Microphysics and Dust RGB Imagery provides cloud analysis of cloud height, thickness, and composition in order for operational applications such as separating fog from low clouds, dust plume detection, and determining precipitating clouds in radar-void/ blocked regions. The DayNight Band has a particular benefit to seeing light from cities, fires, or other emissions as well as the reflection of moonlight off of clouds and smoke plumes, given the right lunar phase and angle. Examples from the VIIRS transition and IEP will be presented.

Description: Dual-polarimetric (dual-pol) radar typically transmits both horizontally and vertically polarized radio wave pulses. From the two different reflected power returns, more accurate estimate of liquid and solid cloud and precipitation can be provided. The upgrade of the traditional NWS WSR-88D radar to include dual-pol capabilities will soon be completed for the entire NEXRAD network. Therefore, the use of dual-pol radar network will have a broad impact in both research and operational communities. The assimilation of dual-pol radar data is especially challenging as few guidelines have been provided by previous research. It is our goal to examine how to best use dual-pol radar data to improve forecast of severe storm and forecast initialization. In recent years, the Development Testbed Center (DTC) has released the community Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) DA system for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The community GSI system runs in independently environment, yet works functionally equivalent to operational centers. With collaboration with the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, this study explores regional assimilation of the dual-pol radar variables from the WSR-88D radars for real case storms. Our presentation will highlight our recent effort on incorporating the horizontal reflectivity (ZH), differential reflectivity (ZDR), specific differential phase (KDP), and radial velocity (VR) data for initializing convective storms, with a significant focus being on an improved representation of hydrometeor fields. In addition, discussion will be provided on the development of enhanced assimilation procedures in the GSI system with respect to dual-pol variables. Beyond the dual-pol variable assimilation procedure developing within a GSI framework, highresolution (1 km) WRF model simulations and storm scale data assimilation experiments will be examined, emphasizing both model initialization and short-term forecast of precipitation fields and processes. Further details of the methodology of data assimilation, the impact of different dual-pol variables, the influence on precipitation forecast will be presented at the conference.

Description: Providing advance warning of East African rainfall variations is a particular focus of several groups including those participating in the Famine Early Warming Systems Network. Both seasonal and long-term model projections of climate variability are being used to examine the societal impacts of hydrometeorological variability on seasonal to interannual and longer time scales. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of both seasonal and climate model projections to develop downscaled scenarios for using in impact modeling. The utility of these projections is reliant on the ability of current models to capture the embedded relationships between East African rainfall and evolving forcing within the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate system. Previous studies have posited relationships between variations in El Nio, the Walker circulation, Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and anthropogenic forcing. This study applies machine learning methods (e.g. clustering, probabilistic graphical model, nonlinear PCA) to observational datasets in an attempt to expose the importance of local and remote forcing mechanisms of East African rainfall variability. The ability of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5) coupled model to capture the associated relationships will be evaluated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations.

Description: Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) is a hyperspectral radiometer aboard NASA's Aqua satellite designed to measure atmospheric profiles of temperature and humidity. AIRS retrievals are assimilated into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over the North Pacific for some cases involving "atmospheric rivers". These events bring a large flux of water vapor to the west coast of North America and often lead to extreme precipitation in the coastal mountain ranges. An advantage of assimilating retrievals rather than radiances is that information in partly cloudy fields of view can be used. Two different Level 2 AIRS retrieval products are compared: the Version 6 AIRS Science Team standard retrievals and a neural net retrieval from MIT. Before assimilation, a bias correction is applied to adjust each layer of retrieved temperature and humidity so the layer mean values agree with a short-term model climatology. WRF runs assimilating each of the products are compared against each other and against a control run with no assimilation. This paper will describe the bias correction technique and results from forecasts evaluated by validation against a Total Precipitable Water (TPW) product from CIRA and against Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses.

Description: Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Previously, it has been shown that cloud top designation associated with quality control procedures within the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system used operationally by a number of Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) partners may not provide the best representation of cloud top pressure (CTP). Because this designated CTP determines which channels are cloud-free and, thus, available for assimilation, ensuring the most accurate representation of this value is imperative to obtaining the greatest impact from satellite radiances. This paper examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing analysis increments and numerical forecasts generated using operational techniques with a research technique that swaps CTP from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the value of CTP calculated from the radiances within GSI.

Description: Automating the coupling of data assimilation (DA) and modeling systems is a unique challenge in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) research community. In recent years, the Development Testbed Center (DTC) has released well-documented tools such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) DA system that can be easily downloaded, installed, and run by researchers on their local systems. However, developing a coupled system in which the various preprocessing, DA, model, and postprocessing capabilities are all integrated can be labor-intensive if one has little experience with any of these individual systems. Additionally, operational modeling entities generally have specific coupling methodologies that can take time to understand and develop code to implement properly. To better enable collaborating researchers to perform modeling and DA experiments with GSI, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a set of Perl scripts that couple GSI and WRF in a cycling methodology consistent with the use of real-time, regional observation data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling Center (EMC). Because Perl is open source, the code can be easily downloaded and executed regardless of the user's native shell environment. This paper will provide a description of this open-source code and descriptions of a number of the use cases that have been performed by SPoRT collaborators using the scripts on different computing systems.

Description: There is need in the research community for weather-related case studies to improve prediction of and recovery after convective thunderstorms that produce damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes. One of the largest continuing challenges in any Earth Science investigation is the discovery of and access to useful science content from the increasingly large volumes of available Earth Science data. The Information Technology and Systems Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville has developed a software system called Noesis 2.0 that can be used to produce Data Albums for weather events relevant to NASA Earth Science researchers. Noesis is an Internet search tool that combines relevant storm research, pictures and videos of an event or event aftermath, web pages containing news reports and official storm summaries, background information about damage, injuries, and deaths, and NASA datasets from field campaigns and satellites into a "one-stop shop" database. The Data Album concept has been previously applied to hurricane cases from 2010 to present. The objective of this paper is to extend that Hurricane Data Album concept to focus on development of an ontology for significant severe weather to aid in selecting appropriate NASA datasets for inclusion in a severe weather Data Album. Recent severe weather events in Moore and El Reno, Oklahoma will be analyzed as an example of how these events can be incorporated into a Data Album.

Description: Natural cloud-to-ground lightning may behave differently depending on the characteristics of the attachment mediums, including the peak current (inferred from radiation fields) and the number of ground strike locations per flash. Existing literature has raised issues over the yea"rs on the behavior of lightning over ocean terrain and these phenomena are not yet well understood. To investigate lightning characteristics over differing terrain we will obtain identical observations over adjacent land and ocean regions during both clear air and thunderstorm periods comparing the electric field behavior over these various terrains. For this, a 3-meter NOAA buoy moored 20NM off the coast of the Kennedy Space Center was instrumented with an electric field mill and New Mexico Tech's slow antenna to measure the electric fields aloft and compared to the existing on-shore electric field mill suite of 31 sensors and a coastal slow antenna. New Mexico Tech's Lightning Mapping Array and the Eastern Range Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System, along with the network of high-speed cameras being used to capture cloud-to-ground lightning strikes over the terrain regions to identify a valid data set and verify the electric fields. This is an on-going project with the potential for significant impact on the determination of lightning risk to objects on the ground. This presentation will provide results and instrumentation progress to date.

Description: Separated flow over a bluff body is analyzed via large eddy simulations. The turbulent flow around a square cylinder features a variety of complex flow phenomena such as highly unsteady vortical structures, reverse flow in the near wall region, and wake turbulence. The formation of spanwise vortices is often times artificially suppressed in computations by either insufficient depth or a coarse spanwise resolution. As the resolution is refined and the domain extended, the artificial turbulent energy exchange between spanwise and streamwise turbulence is eliminated within the wake region. A parametric study is performed highlighting the effects of spanwise vortices where the spanwise computational domain's resolution and depth are varied. For Re=22,000, the mean and turbulent statistics computed from the numerical large eddy simulations (NLES) are in good agreement with experimental data. Von-Karman shedding is observed in the wake of the cylinder. Mesh independence is illustrated by comparing a mesh resolution of 2 million to 16 million. Sensitivities to time stepping were minimized and sampling frequency sensitivities were nonpresent. While increasing the spanwise depth and resolution can be costly, this practice was found to be necessary to eliminating the artificial turbulent energy exchange.

Description: Fundamental research for sonic boom reduction is needed to quantify the interaction of shock waves generated from the aircraft wing or tail surfaces with the nozzle exhaust plume. Aft body shock waves that interact with the exhaust plume contribute to the near-field pressure signature of a vehicle. The plume and shock interaction was studied using computational fluid dynamics and compared with experimental data from a coaxial convergent-divergent nozzle flow in an open jet facility. A simple diamond-shaped wedge was used to generate the shock in the outer flow to study its impact on the inner jet flow. Results show that the compression from the wedge deflects the nozzle plume and shocks form on the opposite plume boundary. The sonic boom pressure signature of the nozzle exhaust plume was modified by the presence of the wedge. Both the experimental results and computational predictions show changes in plume deflection.

Description: We discuss thrust measurements of Dielectric Barrier Discharge (DBD) plasma actuators devices used for aerodynamic active flow control. After a review of our experience with conventional thrust measurement and significant non-repeatability of the results, we devised a suspended actuator test setup, and now present a methodology of thrust measurements with decreased uncertainty. The methodology consists of frequency scans at constant voltages. The procedure consists of increasing the frequency in a step-wise fashion from several Hz to the maximum frequency of several kHz, followed by frequency decrease back down to the start frequency of several Hz. This sequence is performed first at the highest voltage of interest, then repeated at lower voltages. The data in the descending frequency direction is more consistent and selected for reporting. Sample results show strong dependence of thrust on humidity which also affects the consistency and fluctuations of the measurements. We also observed negative values of thrust or "anti-thrust", at low frequencies between 4 Hz and up to 64 Hz. The anti-thrust is proportional to the mean-squared voltage and is frequency independent. Departures from the parabolic anti-thrust curve are correlated with appearance of visible plasma discharges. We propose the anti-thrust hypothesis. It states that the measured thrust is a sum of plasma thrust and anti-thrust, and assumes that the anti-thrust exists at all frequencies and voltages. The anti-thrust depends on actuator geometry and materials and on the test installation. It enables the separation of the plasma thrust from the measured total thrust. This approach enables more meaningful comparisons between actuators at different installations and laboratories. The dependence on test installation was validated by surrounding the actuator with a large diameter, grounded, metal sleeve.

Description: Determining the adverse aerodynamic effects due to ice accretion often relies on dry-air wind-tunnel testing of artificial, or simulated, ice shapes. Recent developments in ice accretion documentation methods have yielded a laser-scanning capability that can measure highly three-dimensional features of ice accreted in icing wind tunnels. The objective of this paper was to evaluate the aerodynamic accuracy of ice-accretion simulations generated from laser-scan data. Ice-accretion tests were conducted in the NASA Icing Research Tunnel using an 18-inch chord, 2-D straight wing with NACA 23012 airfoil section. For six ice accretion cases, a 3-D laser scan was performed to document the ice geometry prior to the molding process. Aerodynamic performance testing was conducted at the University of Illinois low-speed wind tunnel at a Reynolds number of 1.8 x 10(exp 6) and a Mach number of 0.18 with an 18-inch chord NACA 23012 airfoil model that was designed to accommodate the artificial ice shapes. The ice-accretion molds were used to fabricate one set of artificial ice shapes from polyurethane castings. The laser-scan data were used to fabricate another set of artificial ice shapes using rapid prototype manufacturing such as stereolithography. The iced-airfoil results with both sets of artificial ice shapes were compared to evaluate the aerodynamic simulation accuracy of the laser-scan data. For four of the six ice-accretion cases, there was excellent agreement in the iced-airfoil aerodynamic performance between the casting and laser-scan based simulations. For example, typical differences in iced-airfoil maximum lift coefficient were less than 3% with corresponding differences in stall angle of approximately one degree or less. The aerodynamic simulation accuracy reported in this paper has demonstrated the combined accuracy of the laser-scan and rapid-prototype manufacturing approach to simulating ice accretion for a NACA 23012 airfoil. For several of the ice-accretion cases tested, the aerodynamics is known to depend upon the small, three dimensional features of the ice. These data show that the laser-scan and rapid-prototype manufacturing approach is capable of replicating these ice features within the reported accuracies of the laser-scan measurement and rapid-prototyping method; thus providing a new capability for high-fidelity ice-accretion documentation and artificial ice-shape fabrication for icing research.

Description: Over the last few years, numerical prediction of dust aerosol concentration has become prominent at several research and operational weather centres due to growing interest from diverse stakeholders, such as solar energy plant managers, health professionals, aviation and military authorities and policymakers. Dust prediction in numerical weather prediction-type models faces a number of challenges owing to the complexity of the system. At the centre of the problem is the vast range of scales required to fully account for all of the physical processes related to dust. Another limiting factor is the paucity of suitable dust observations available for model, evaluation and assimilation. This chapter discusses in detail numerical prediction of dust with examples from systems that are currently providing dust forecasts in near real-time or are part of international efforts to establish daily provision of dust forecasts based on multi-model ensembles. The various models are introduced and described along with an overview on the importance of dust prediction activities and a historical perspective. Assimilation and evaluation aspects in dust prediction are also discussed.

Description: Although many improvements have been made in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), clouds remain a significant source of uncertainty in general circulation models (GCMs) because their structural and optical properties are strongly dependent upon interactions between aerosol/cloud microphysics and dynamics that are unresolved in such models. Recent changes to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) turbulence and moist convection parameterizations in the NASA GISS Model E2 atmospheric GCM(post-CMIP5, hereafter P5) have improved cloud simulations significantly compared to its CMIP5 (hereafter C5) predecessor. A study has been performed to evaluate these changes between the P5 and C5 versions of the GCM, both of which used prescribed sea surface temperatures. P5 and C5 simulated cloud fraction (CF), liquid water path (LWP), ice water path (IWP), cloud water path (CWP), precipitable water vapor (PWV), and relative humidity (RH) have been compared to multiple satellite observations including the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System-Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (CERES-MODIS, hereafter CM), CloudSat- Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO; hereafter CC), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E). Although some improvements are observed in the P5 simulation on a global scale, large improvements have been found over the southern midlatitudes (SMLs), where correlations increased and both bias and root-mean-square error (RMSE) significantly decreased, in relation to the previous C5 simulation, when compared to observations. Changes to the PBL scheme have resulted in improved total column CFs, particularly over the SMLs where marine boundary layer (MBL) CFs have increased by nearly 20% relative to the previous C5 simulation. Globally, the P5 simulated CWPs are 25 gm22 lower than the previous C5 results. The P5 version of the GCM simulates PWV and RH higher than its C5 counterpart and agrees well with the AMSR-E and AIRS observations. The moister atmospheric conditions simulated by P5 are consistent with the CF comparison and provide a strong support for the increase in MBL clouds over the SMLs. Over the tropics, the P5 version of the GCM simulated total column CFs and CWPs are slightly lower than the previous C5 results, primarily as a result of the shallower tropical boundary layer in P5 relative to C5 in regions outside the marine stratocumulus decks.

Description: Sensitivities of the oceanic biological pump within the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies ) climate modeling system are explored here. Results are presented from twin control simulations of the air-sea CO2 gas exchange using two different ocean models coupled to the same atmosphere. The two ocean models (Russell ocean model and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, HYCOM) use different vertical coordinate systems, and therefore different representations of column physics. Both variants of the GISS climate model are coupled to the same ocean biogeochemistry module (the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model, NOBM), which computes prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air-sea flux of CO2 and the deep ocean carbon transport and storage. In particular, the model differences due to remineralization rate changes are compared to differences attributed to physical processes modeled differently in the two ocean models such as ventilation, mixing, eddy stirring and vertical advection. GISSEH(GISSER) is found to underestimate mixed layer depth compared to observations by about 55% (10 %) in the Southern Ocean and overestimate it by about 17% (underestimate by 2%) in the northern high latitudes. Everywhere else in the global ocean, the two models underestimate the surface mixing by about 12-34 %, which prevents deep nutrients from reaching the surface and promoting primary production there. Consequently, carbon export is reduced because of reduced production at the surface. Furthermore, carbon export is particularly sensitive to remineralization rate changes in the frontal regions of the subtropical gyres and at the Equator and this sensitivity in the model is much higher than the sensitivity to physical processes such as vertical mixing, vertical advection and mesoscale eddy transport. At depth, GISSER, which has a significant warm bias, remineralizes nutrients and carbon faster thereby producing more nutrients and carbon at depth, which eventually resurfaces with the global thermohaline circulation especially in the Southern Ocean. Because of the reduced primary production and carbon export in GISSEH compared to GISSER, the biological pump efficiency, i.e., the ratio of primary production and carbon export at 75 m, is half in the GISSEH of that in GISSER, The Southern Ocean emerges as a key region where the CO2 flux is as sensitive to biological parameterizations as it is to physical parameterizations. The fidelity of ocean mixing in the Southern Ocean compared to observations is shown to be a good indicator of the magnitude of the biological pump efficiency regardless of physical model choice.

Description: Reliable prediction of contra-rotating open rotor (CROR) noise is an essential element of any strategy for the development of low-noise open rotor propulsion systems that can meet both the community noise regulations and the cabin noise limits. Since CROR noise spectra typically exhibits a preponderance of tones, significant efforts have been directed towards predicting their tone spectra. To that end, there has been an ongoing effort at NASA to assess various in-house open rotor tone noise prediction tools using a benchmark CROR blade set for which significant aerodynamic and acoustic data had been acquired in wind tunnel tests. In the work presented here, the focus is on the near-field noise of the benchmark open rotor blade set at the cruise condition. Using an analytical CROR tone noise model with input from high-fidelity aerodynamic simulations, detailed tone noise spectral predictions have been generated and compared with the experimental data. Comparisons indicate that the theoretical predictions are in good agreement with the data, especially for the dominant CROR tones and their overall sound pressure level. The results also indicate that, whereas individual rotor tones are well predicted by the linear sources (i.e., thickness and loading), for the interaction tones it is essential that the quadrupole sources be included in the analysis.

Description: Integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) lidar is a remote sensing technique for monitoring different atmospheric species. The technique relies on wavelength differentiation between strong and weak absorbing features normalized to the transmitted energy. 2-micron double-pulsed IPDA lidar is best suited for atmospheric carbon dioxide measurements. In such case, the transmitter produces two successive laser pulses separated by short interval (200 microseconds), with low repetition rate (10Hz). Conventional laser energy monitors, based on thermal detectors, are suitable for low repetition rate single pulse lasers. Due to the short pulse interval in double-pulsed lasers, thermal energy monitors underestimate the total transmitted energy. This leads to measurement biases and errors in double-pulsed IPDA technique. The design and calibration of a 2-micron double-pulse laser energy monitor is presented. The design is based on a high-speed, extended range InGaAs pin quantum detectors suitable for separating the two pulse events. Pulse integration is applied for converting the detected pulse power into energy. Results are compared to a photo-electro-magnetic (PEM) detector for impulse response verification. Calibration included comparing the three detection technologies in single-pulsed mode, then comparing the pin and PEM detectors in double-pulsed mode. Energy monitor linearity will be addressed.

Description: Methane (CH4) is the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG). Its 100-year global warming potential (GWP) is 25 times larger than that for carbon dioxide. The 100-yr integrated GWP of CH4 is sensitive to changes in OH levels. Methane's atmospheric growth rate was estimated to be more than 10 ppb yr(exp -1) in 1998 but less than zero in 2001, 2004 and 2005 (Kirschke et al., 2013). Since 2006, the CH4 is increasing again. This phenomena is yet not well understood. Oxidation of CH4 by OH is the main loss process, thus affecting the oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere and contributing to the global ozone background. Current models typically use an annual cycle of offline OH fields to simulate CH4. The implemented OH fields in these models are typically tuned so that simulated CH4 growth rates match that measured. For future and climate simulations, the OH tuning technique may not be suitable. In addition, running full chemistry, multi-decadal CH4 simulations is a serious challenge and currently, due to computational intensity, almost impossible.

Description: NASA's Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite-II (ICESat-2) mission is a decadal survey mission (2016 launch). The mission objectives are to measure land ice elevation, sea ice freeboard, and changes in these variables, as well as to collect measurements over vegetation to facilitate canopy height determination. Two innovative components will characterize the ICESat-2 lidar: 1) collection of elevation data by a multibeam system and 2) application of micropulse lidar (photon-counting) technology. A photon-counting altimeter yields clouds of discrete points, resulting from returns of individual photons, and hence new data analysis techniques are required for elevation determination and association of the returned points to reflectors of interest. The objective of this paper is to derive an algorithm that allows detection of ground under dense canopy and identification of ground and canopy levels in simulated ICESat-2 data, based on airborne observations with a Sigma Space micropulse lidar. The mathematical algorithm uses spatial statistical and discrete mathematical concepts, including radial basis functions, density measures, geometrical anisotropy, eigenvectors, and geostatistical classification parameters and hyperparameters. Validation shows that ground and canopy elevation, and hence canopy height, can be expected to be observable with high accuracy by ICESat-2 for all expected beam energies considered for instrument design (93.01%-99.57% correctly selected points for a beam with expected return of 0.93 mean signals per shot (msp), and 72.85%-98.68% for 0.48 msp). The algorithm derived here is generally applicable for elevation determination from photoncounting lidar altimeter data collected over forested areas, land ice, sea ice, and land surfaces, as well as for cloud detection.

Description: In this presentation, we will briefly describe the significant improvements made in the AIRS Version-6 retrieval algorithm, especially as to how they affect retrieved surface skin and surface air temperatures. The global distribution of seasonal 1:30 AM and 1:30 PM local time 12 year climatologies of Ts,a will be presented for the first time. We will also present the spatial distribution of short term 12 year anomaly trends of Ts,a at 1:30 AM and 1:30 PM, as well as the spatial distribution of temporal correlations of Ts,a with the El Nino Index. It will be shown that there are significant differences between the behavior of 1:30 AM and 1:30 PM Ts,a anomalies in some arid land areas.

Description: Continental ice sheets typically sculpt landscapes via erosion; under certain conditions, ancient landscapes can be preserved beneath ice and can survive extensive and repeated glaciation. We used concentrations of atmospherically produced cosmogenic beryllium-10, carbon, and nitrogen to show that ancient soil has been preserved in basal ice for millions of years at the center of the ice sheet at Summit, Greenland. This finding suggests ice sheet stability through the Pleistocene (i.e., the past 2.7 million years). The preservation of this soil implies that the ice has been non-erosive and frozen to the bed for much of that time, that there was no substantial exposure of central Greenland once the ice sheet became fully established, and that preglacial landscapes can remain preserved for long periods under continental ice sheets

Description: In this presentation, we will show AIRS Version-6 area weighted anomaly time series over the time period September 2002 through August 2014 of atmospheric temperature and water vapor profiles as a function of height. These anomaly time series show very different behaviors in the stratosphere and in the troposphere. Tropical mean stratospheric temperature anomaly time series are very strongly influenced by the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) with large anomalies that propagate downward from 1 mb to 100 mb with a period of about two years. AIRS stratospheric temperature anomalies are in good agreement with those obtained by MLS over a common period. Tropical mean tropospheric temperature profile anomalies appear to be totally disconnected from those of the stratosphere and closely follow El Nino La Nina activity.

Description: The MODIS Cloud Optical and Microphysical Product (MOD_PR060D) for Data Collection 6 has entered full scale production. Aqua reprocessing is almost completed and Terra reprocessing will begin shortly. Unlike previous collections, the CHIMAERA code base allows for simultaneous processing for multiple sensors and the operational CHIMAERA 6.0.76 stream is also available for VIIRS and SEVIRI sensors and for our E-MAS airborne platform.

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Description: It is hypothesized that microphysical predictions have greater uncertainties/errors when there are complex interactions that result from mixedphased processes like riming. Use Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission ground validation studies in Ontario, Canada to verify and improve parameterizations

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Description: Soil moisture retrievals from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) instrument are assimilated into the Noah land surface model (LSM) within the NASA Land Information System (LIS). Before assimilation, SMOS retrievals are bias-corrected to match the model climatological distribution using a Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) matching approach. Data assimilation is done via the Ensemble Kalman Filter. The goal is to improve the representation of soil moisture within the LSM, and ultimately to improve numerical weather forecasts through better land surface initialization. We present a case study showing a large area of irrigation in the lower Mississippi River Valley, in an area with extensive rice agriculture. High soil moisture value in this region are observed by SMOS, but not captured in the forcing data. After assimilation, the model fields reflect the observed geographic patterns of soil moisture. Plans for a modeling experiment and operational use of the data are given. This work helps prepare for the assimilation of Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) retrievals in the near future.

Description: The Hyperspectral Microwave Atmospheric Sounder (HyMAS) is being developed at Lincoln Laboratories and accommodated by the Goddard Space Flight Center for a flight opportunity on a NASA research aircraft. The term hyperspectral microwave is used to indicate an all-weather sounding instrument that performs equivalent to hyperspectral infrared sounders in clear air with vertical resolution of approximately 1 km. Deploying the HyMAS equipped scanhead with the existing Conical Scanning Microwave Imaging Radiometer (CoSMIR) shortens the path to a flight demonstration. Hyperspectral microwave is achieved through the use of independent RF antennas that sample the volume of the Earths atmosphere through various levels of frequencies, thereby producing a set of dense, spaced vertical weighting functions.

Description: Large-scale models such as GEOS-5 typically calculate grid-scale fractional cloudiness through a PDF parameterization of the sub-gridscale distribution of specific humidity. The GEOS-5 moisture routine uses a simple rectangular PDF varying in height that follows a tanh profile. While below 10 km this profile is informed by moisture information from the AIRS instrument, there is relatively little empirical basis for the profile above that level. ATTREX provides an opportunity to refine the profile using estimates of the horizontal variability of measurements of water vapor, total water and ice particles from the Global Hawk aircraft at or near the tropopause. These measurements will be compared with estimates of large-scale cloud fraction from CALIPSO and lidar retrievals from the CPL on the aircraft. We will use the variability measurements to perform studies of the sensitivity of the GEOS-5 cloud-fraction to various modifications to the PDF shape and to its vertical profile.

Description: Since the advent of NASA's Earth Observing System, knowledge of the practical benefits of Earth science data has grown considerably. The community using NASA Earth science observations in applications has grown significantly, with increasing sophistication to serve national interests. Data latency, or how quickly communities receive science observations after acquisition, can have a direct impact on the applications and usability of the information. This study was conducted to determine how users are incorporating NASA data into applications and operational processes to benefit society beyond scientific research, as well as to determine the need for data latency of less than 12 h. The results of the analysis clearly show the significant benefit to society of serving the needs of the agricultural, emergency response, environmental monitoring and weather communities who use rapidly delivered, accurate Earth science data. The study also showed the potential of expanding the communities who use low latency NASA science data products to provide new ways of transforming data into information. These benefits can be achieved with a clear and consistent NASA policy on product latency.

Description: The OMPS Limb Profiler (LP) was launched on board the NASA Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) satellite in October 2011. OMPS-LP is a limb-scattering hyperspectral sensor that provides ozone profiling capability at 1.5 km vertical resolution from cloud top to 60 km altitude. The use of three parallel slits allows global coverage in approximately four days. We have recently completed a full reprocessing of all LP data products, designated as Release 2, that improves the accuracy and quality of these products. Level 1 gridded radiance (L1G) changes include intra-orbit and seasonal correction of variations in wavelength registration, revised static and intra-orbit tangent height adjustments, and simplified pixel selection from multiple images. Ozone profile retrieval changes include removal of the explicit aerosol correction, exclusion of channels contaminated by stratospheric OH emission, a revised instrument noise characterization, improved synthetic solar spectrum, improved pressure and temperature ancillary data, and a revised ozone climatology. Release 2 data products also include aerosol extinction coefficient profiles derived with the prelaunch retrieval algorithm. Our evaluation of OMPS LP Release 2 data quality is good. Zonal average ozone profile comparisons with Aura MLS data typically show good agreement, within 5-10% over the altitude range 20-50 km between 60 deg S and 60 deg N. The aerosol profiles agree well with concurrent satellite measurements such as CALIPSO and OSIRIS, and clearly detect exceptional events such as volcanic eruptions and the Chelyabinsk bolide in February 2013.

Description: AERO-SAT is an international consortium of experts on aerosol remote sensing from ground and space. This initiative was established in 2013 (1) to accelerate the exchange of ideas and concepts and (2) to elevate the capabilities of satellite sensorsretrieval (aerosol) products, which are needed to constrain aerosol processing in and assist in evaluations of global modeling. The main goal of the meeting is to substantiate and invigorate the five AEROSAT working groups. On each of those five topics dedicated working groups are building up and will report on their initial activities followed by further related presentations and ample time for discussions. Organizers of the meeting held September 27-28, 2014 would like to post the presentations to a website.

Description: AeroCom is an open international initiative of scientists interested in the advancement of the understanding of global aerosol properties and aerosol impacts on climate. A central goal is to more strongly tie and constrain modeling efforts to observational data. A major element for exchanges between data and modeling groups are annual meetings. The meeting was held September 20 through October 2, 1014 and the organizers would like to post the presentations.

Description: The availability of GODAE Oceanview-type ocean forecast systems provides the opportunity to develop high-resolution, short- to medium-range coupled prediction systems. Several groups have undertaken the first experiments based on relatively unsophisticated approaches. Progress is being driven at the institutional level targeting a range of applications that represent their respective national interests with clear overlaps and opportunities for information exchange and collaboration. These include general circulation, hurricanes, extra-tropical storms, high-latitude weather and sea-ice forecasting as well as coastal air-sea interaction. In some cases, research has moved beyond case and sensitivity studies to controlled experiments to obtain statistically significant metrics.

Description: Launched in February 2013, the Landsat-8 carries on-board the Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), a two-band thermal pushbroom imager, to maintain the thermal imaging capability of the Landsat program. The TIRS bands are centered at roughly 10.9 and 12 micrometers (Bands 10 and 11 respectively). They have 100 m spatial resolution and image coincidently with the Operational Land Imager (OLI), also on-board Landsat-8. The TIRS instrument has an internal calibration system consisting of a variable temperature blackbody and a special viewport with which it can see deep space; a two point calibration can be performed twice an orbit. Immediately after launch, a rigorous vicarious calibration program was started to validate the absolute calibration of the system. The two vicarious calibration teams, NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT), both make use of buoys deployed on large water bodies as the primary monitoring technique. RIT took advantage of cross-calibration opportunity soon after launch when Landsat-8 and Landsat-7 were imaging the same targets within a few minutes of each other to perform a validation of the absolute calibration. Terra MODIS is also being used for regular monitoring of the TIRS absolute calibration. The buoy initial results showed a large error in both bands, 0.29 and 0.51 W/sq msrmicrometers or -2.1 K and -4.4 K at 300 K in Band 10 and 11 respectively, where TIRS data was too hot. A calibration update was recommended for both bands to correct for a bias error and was implemented on 3 February 2014 in the USGS/EROS processing system, but the residual variability is still larger than desired for both bands (0.12 and 0.2 W/sq msrmicrometers or 0.87 and 1.67 K at 300 K). Additional work has uncovered the source of the calibration error: out-of-field stray light. While analysis continues to characterize the stray light contribution, the vicarious calibration work proceeds. The additional data have not changed the statistical assessment but indicate that the correction (particularly in band 11) is probably only valid for a subset of data. While the stray light effect is small enough in Band 10 to make the data useful across a wide array of applications, the effect in Band 11 is larger and the vicarious results suggest that Band 11 data should not be used where absolute calibration is required.

Description: Climate models projected stronger warming over the past 15 years than has been seen in observations. Conspiring factors of errors in volcanic and solar inputs, representations of aerosols, and El NiNo evolution, may explain most of the discrepancy.

Description: Convection is the primary transport process in the Earth's atmosphere. About two-thirds of the Earth's rainfall and severe floods derive from convection. In addition, two-thirds of the global rain falls in the tropics, while the associated latent heat release accounts for three-fourths of the total heat energy for the Earth's atmosphere. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) have been used to improve our understanding of cloud and precipitation processes and phenomena from micro-scale to cloud-scale and mesoscale as well as their interactions with radiation and surface processes. CRMs use sophisticated and realistic representations of cloud microphysical processes and can reasonably well resolve the time evolution, structure, and life cycles of clouds and cloud systems. CRMs also allow for explicit interaction between clouds, outgoing longwave (cooling) and incoming solar (heating) radiation, and ocean and land surface processes. Observations are required to initialize CRMs and to validate their results. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE) has been developed and improved at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center over the past three decades. It is amulti-dimensional non-hydrostatic CRM that can simulate clouds and cloud systems in different environments. Early improvements and testing were presented in Tao and Simpson (1993) and Tao et al. (2003a). A review on the application of the GCE to the understanding of precipitation processes can be found in Simpson and Tao (1993) and Tao (2003). In this paper, recent model improvements (microphysics, radiation and land surface processes) are described along with their impact and performance on cloud and precipitation events in different geographic locations via comparisons with observations. In addition, recent advanced applications of the GCE are presented that include understanding the physical processes responsible for diurnal variation, examining the impact of aerosols (cloud condensation nuclei or CCN and ice nuclei or IN) on precipitation processes, utilizing a satellite simulator to improve the microphysics, providing better simulations for satellite-derived latent heating retrieval, and coupling with a general circulation model to improve the representation of precipitation processes.

Description: Land swiace phenology is widely retrieved from satellite observations at regional and global scales, and its long-term record has been demonstmted to be a valuable tool for reconstructing past climate variations, monitoring the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate impacts, and predicting biological responses to future climate scenarios. This srudy detected global land surface phenology from the advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from 1982 to 2010. Based on daily enhanced vegetation index at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees, we simulated the seasonal vegetative trajectory for each individual pixel using piecewise logistic models, which was then used to detect the onset of greenness increase (OGI) and the length of vegetation growing season (GSL). Further, both overall interannual variations and pixel-based trends were examIned across Koeppen's climate regions for the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010, respectively. The results show that OGI and OSL varied considerably during 1982-2010 across the globe. Generally, the interarmual variation could be more than a month in precipitation-controlled tropical and dry climates while it was mainly less than 15 days in temperature-controlled temperate, cold, and polar climates. OGI, overall, shifted early, and GSL was prolonged from 1982 to 2010 in most climate regions in North America and Asia while the consistently significant trends only occurred in cold climate and polar climate in North America. The overall trends in Europe were generally insignificant. Over South America, late OGI was consistent (particularly from 1982 to 1999) while either positive or negative OSL trends in a climate region were mostly reversed between the periods of 1982-1999 and 2000-2010. In the Northern Hemisphere of Africa, OGI trends were mostly insignificant, but prolonged GSL was evident over individual climate regions during the last 3 decades. OGI mainly showed late trends in the Southern Hemisphere of Africa while GSL was reversed from reduced GSL trends (1982-1999) to prolonged trends (2000-2010). In Australia, GSL exhibited considerable interannual variation, but the consistent trend lacked presence in most regions. Finally, the proportion of pixels with significant trends was less than I% in most of climate regions although it could be as large as 10%.

Description: Microwave radiometer observations have been used to retrieve snow depth and snow water equivalent on both land and sea ice, snow accumulation on ice sheets, melt events, snow temperature, and snow grain size. Modeling the microwave emission from snow and ice physical properties is crucial to improve the quality of these retrievals. It also is crucial to improve our understanding of the radiative transfer processes within the snow cover, and the snow properties most relevant in microwave remote sensing. Our objective is to present a recent microwave emission model and its validation. The model is named DMRT-ML (DMRT Multi-Layer).

Description: Few studies have evaluated the precision of IKONOS stereo data for measuring forest canopy height. The high cost of airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data collection for large area studies and the present lack of a spaceborne instrument lead to the need to explore other low cost options. The US Government currently has access to a large archive of commercial high-resolution imagery, which could be quite valuable to forest structure studies. At 1 m resolution, we here compared canopy height models (CHMs) and height data derived from Goddard's airborne LiDAR Hyper-spectral and Thermal Imager (G-LiHT) with three types of IKONOS stereo derived digital surface models (DSMs) that estimate CHMs by subtracting National Elevation Data (NED) digital terrain models (DTMs). We found the following in three different forested regions of the US after excluding heterogeneous and disturbed forest samples: (1) G-LiHT DTMs were highly correlated with NED DTMs with R (sup 2) greater than 0.98 and root mean square errors (RMSEs) less than 2.96 m; (2) when using one visually identifiable ground control point (GCP) from NED, G-LiHT DSMs and IKONOS DSMs had R (sup 2) greater than 0.84 and RMSEs of 2.7 to 4.1 m; and (3) one GCP CHMs for two study sites had R (sup 2) greater than 0.7 and RMSEs of 2.6 to 3 m where data were collected less than four years apart. Our results suggest that IKONOS stereo data are a useful LiDAR alternative where high-quality DTMs are available.

Description: Several minimum-mass aeroelastic optimization problems are solved to evaluate the effectiveness of a variety of novel tailoring schemes for subsonic transport wings. Aeroelastic strength and panel buckling constraints are imposed across a variety of trimmed maneuver loads. Tailoring with metallic thickness variations, functionally graded materials, composite laminates, tow steering, and distributed trailing edge control effectors are all found to provide reductions in structural wing mass with varying degrees of success. The question as to whether this wing mass reduction will offset the increased manufacturing cost is left unresolved for each case.

Description: Using the water isotope- and vapor source distribution (VSD) tracer-enabled Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE-R, we examine changing El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like expressions in the hydrological cycle in a suite of model experiments. We apply strong surface temperature anomalies associated with composite observed El Nino and La Nina events as surface boundary conditions to preindustrial and mid-Holocene model experiments in order to investigate ENSO-like expressions in the hydrological cycle under varying boundary conditions. We find distinct simulated hydrological anomalies associated with El Nino-like ("ENSOWARM") and La Nina-like ("ENSOCOOL") conditions, and the region-specific VSD tracers show hydrological differences across the Pacific basin between El Nino-like and La Nina-like events. The application of ENSOCOOL forcings does not produce climatological anomalies that represent the equal but opposite impacts of the ENSOWARM experiment, as the isotopic anomalies associated with ENSOWARM conditions are generally stronger than with ENSOCOOL and the spatial patterns of change distinct. Also, when the same ENSO-like surface temperature anomalies are imposed on the mid-Holocene, the hydrological response is muted, relative to the preindustrial. Mid-Holocene changes in moisture sources to the analyzed regions across the Pacific reveal potentially complex relationships between ENSO-like conditions and boundary conditions. Given the complex impacts of ENSO-like conditions on various aspects of the hydrological cycle, we suggest that proxy record insights into paleo-ENSO variability are most likely to be robust when synthesized from a network of many spatially diverse archives, which can account for the potential nonstationarity of ENSO teleconnections under different boundary conditions.

Description: Future changes in the stratospheric circulation could have an important impact on northern winter tropospheric climate change, given that sea level pressure (SLP) responds not only to tropospheric circulation variations but also to vertically coherent variations in troposphere-stratosphere circulation. Here we assess northern winter stratospheric change and its potential to influence surface climate change in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. In the stratosphere at high latitudes, an easterly change in zonally averaged zonal wind is found for the majority of the CMIP5 models, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Comparable results are also found in the 1% CO2 increase per year projections, indicating that the stratospheric easterly change is common feature in future climate projections. This stratospheric wind change, however, shows a significant spread among the models. By using linear regression, we quantify the impact of tropical upper troposphere warming, polar amplification, and the stratospheric wind change on SLP. We find that the intermodel spread in stratospheric wind change contributes substantially to the intermodel spread in Arctic SLP change. The role of the stratosphere in determining part of the spread in SLP change is supported by the fact that the SLP change lags the stratospheric zonally averaged wind change. Taken together, these findings provide further support for the importance of simulating the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere, to narrow the uncertainty in the future projection of tropospheric circulation changes.

Description: Aquarius is an L-band instrument designed to map the surface salinity field of the global oceans. It consists of three L-band (1.41 GHz) radiometers and an L-band (1.26 GHz) scatterometer. The radiometers are the primary instruments for measuring salinity and the scatterometer provides a correction for surface roughness. Aquarius was launched in June 2011 and has been mapping the surface salinity field since it was turned on in August. In addition, Aquarius is now producing maps of radio frequency interference (RFI), Faraday rotation and soil moisture.

Description: The Global Modeling and Assimilation Offce (GMAO) is currently using an IAU-based 3D-Var data assimilation system. GMAO has been experimenting with a 3D-Var-hybrid version of its data assimilation system (DAS) for over a year now, which will soon become operational and it will rapidly progress toward a 4D-EnVar. Concurrently, the machinery to exercise traditional 4DVar is in place and it is desirable to have a comparison of the traditional 4D approach with the other available options, and evaluate their performance in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) DAS. This work will also explore the possibility for constructing a reduced order model (ROM) to make traditional 4D-Var computationally attractive for increasing model resolutions. Part of the research on ROM will be to search for a suitably acceptable space to carry on the corresponding reduction. This poster illustrates how the IAU-based 4D-Var assimilation compares with our currently used IAU-based 3D-Var.

Description: An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is a pure modeling study used when actual observations are too expensive or difficult to obtain. OSSEs are valuable tools for determining the potential impact of new observing systems on numerical weather forecasts and for evaluation of data assimilation systems (DAS). An OSSE has been developed at the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO, Errico et al 2013). The GMAO OSSE uses a 13-month integration of the European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts 2005 operational model at T511/L91 resolution for the Nature Run (NR). Synthetic observations have been updated so that they are based on real observations during the summer of 2013. The emulated observation types include AMSU-A, MHS, IASI, AIRS, and HIRS4 radiance data, GPS-RO, and conventional types including aircraft, rawinsonde, profiler, surface, and satellite winds. The synthetic satellite wind observations are colocated with the NR cloud fields, and the rawinsondes are advected during ascent using the NR wind fields. Data counts for the synthetic observations are matched as closely as possible to real data counts, as shown in Figure 2. Errors are added to the synthetic observations to emulate representativeness and instrument errors. The synthetic errors are calibrated so that the statistics of observation innovation and analysis increments in the OSSE are similar to the same statistics for assimilation of real observations, in an iterative method described by Errico et al (2013). The standard deviations of observation minus forecast (xo-H(xb)) are compared for the OSSE and real data in Figure 3. The synthetic errors include both random, uncorrelated errors, and an additional correlated error component for some observational types. Vertically correlated errors are included for conventional sounding data and GPS-RO, and channel correlated errors are introduced to AIRS and IASI (Figure 4). HIRS, AMSU-A, and MHS have a component of horizontally correlated error. The forecast model used by the GMAO OSSE is the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) DAS. The model version has been updated to v. 5.13.3, corresponding to the current operational model. Forecasts are run on a cube-sphere grid with 180 points along each edge of the cube (approximately 0.5 degree horizontal resolution) with 72 vertical levels. The DAS is cycled at 6-hour intervals, with 240 hour forecasts launched daily at 0000 UTC. Evaluation of the forecasting skill for July and August is currently underway. Prior versions of the GMAO OSSE have been found to have greater forecasting skill than real world forecasts. It is anticipated that similar forecast skill will be found in the updated OSSE.

Description: Satellite observations of formaldehyde (HCHO) columns provide top-down constraints on emissions of highly reactive volatile organic compounds (HRVOCs). This approach has been used previously to constrain emissions of isoprene from vegetation, but application to US anthropogenic emissions has been stymied by lack of a discernable HCHO signal. Here we show that oversampling of HCHO data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) for 2005 - 2008 enables quantitative detection of urban and industrial plumes in eastern Texas including Houston, Port Arthur, and Dallas-Fort Worth. By spatially integrating the individual urban-industrial HCHO plumes observed by OMI we can constrain the corresponding HCHO-weighted HRVOC emissions. Application to the Houston plume indicates a HCHO source of 260 plus or minus 110 kmol h-1 and implies a factor of 5.5 plus or minus 2.4 underestimate of anthropogenic HRVOC emissions in the US Environmental Protection Agency inventory. With this approach we are able to monitor the trend in HRVOC emissions over the US, in particular from the oil-gas industry, over the past decade.

Description: The operational Land Imager (OLI) aboard Landsat 8 was launched in February 2013 to continue the Landsat's mission of monitoring earth resources at relatively high spatial resolution. Compared to Landsat heritage sensors, OLI has an additional 443-nm band (termed coastal/aerosol (CA) band), which extends its potential for mapping/monitoring water quality in coastal/inland waters. In addition, OLI's pushbroom design allows for longer integration time and, as a result, higher signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Using a series of radiative transfer simulations, we provide insights into the radiometric sensitivity of OLI when studying coastal/inland waters. This will address how the changes in water constituents manifest at top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and whether the changes are resolvable at TOA (focal plane) relative to OLI's overall noise.

Description: No abstract available

Description: African dust can transport across the tropical Atlantic and reach the Amazon basin, exerting far-reaching impacts on climate in downwind regions. The transported dust influences the surface-atmosphere interactions and cloud and precipitation processes through perturbing the surface radiative budget and atmospheric radiative heating and acting as cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei. Dust also influences biogeochemical cycle and climate through providing nutrients vital to the productivity of ocean biomass and Amazon forests. Assessing these climate impacts relies on an accurate quantification of dust transport and deposition. Currently model simulations show extremely large diversity, which calls for a need of observational constraints. Kaufman et al. (2005) estimated from MODIS aerosol measurements that about 144 Tg of dust is deposited into the tropical Atlantic and 50 Tg of dust into the Amazon in 2001. This estimated dust import to Amazon is a factor of 3-4 higher than other observations and models. However, several studies have argued that the oversimplified characterization of dust vertical profile in the study would have introduced large uncertainty and very likely a high bias. In this study we quantify the trans-Atlantic dust transport and deposition by using 7 years (2007-2013) observations from CALIPSO lidar. CALIPSO acquires high-resolution aerosol extinction and depolarization profiles in both cloud-free and above-cloud conditions. The unique CALIPSO capability of profiling aerosols above clouds offers an unprecedented opportunity of examining uncertainties associated with the use of MODIS clear-sky data. Dust is separated from other types of aerosols using the depolarization measurements. We estimated that on the basis of 7-year average, 118142 Tg of dust is deposited into the tropical Atlantic and 3860 Tg of dust into the Amazon basin. Substantial interannual variations are observed during the period, with the maximum to minimum ratio of about 1.6 and 2.5 for the deposition to the tropical Atlantic and Amazon, respectively. The MODIS-based estimates appear to fall within the range of CALIPSO-based estimates; and the difference between MODIS and CALIPSO estimates can be largely attributed to the interannual variability, which is corroborated by long-term surface dust concentration observations in the tropical Atlantic. Considering that CALIPSO generally tends to underestimate the aerosol loading, our estimate is likely to represent a low bound for the dust transport and deposition estimate. The finding suggests that models have substantial biases and considerable effort is needed to improve model simulations of dust cycle.

Description: The adjustment of parameterized gravity waves associated with model convection and finer vertical resolution has made possible the generation of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in two Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) models, GISS Middle Atmosphere Global Climate Model III and a climate/middle atmosphere version of Model E2. Both extend from the surface to 0.002 hPa, with 2deg 2.5deg resolution and 102 layers. Many realistic features of the QBO are simulated, including magnitude and variability of its period and amplitude. The period itself is affected by the magnitude of parameterized convective gravity wave momentum fluxes and interactive ozone (which also affects the QBO amplitude and variability), among other forcings. Although varying sea surface temperatures affect the parameterized momentum fluxes, neither aspect is responsible for the modeled variation in QBO period. Both the parameterized and resolved waves act to produce the respective easterly and westerly wind descent, although their effect is offset in altitude at each level. The modeled and observed QBO influences on tracers in the stratosphere, such as ozone, methane, and water vapor are also discussed. Due to the link between the gravity wave parameterization and the models' convection, and the dependence on the ozone field, the models may also be used to investigate how the QBO may vary with climate change.

Description: This paper presents results from computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations of a three-stream plug nozzle. Time-accurate, Euler, quasi-1D and 2D-axisymmetric simulations were performed as part of an effort to provide a CFD-based approach to modeling nozzle dynamics. The CFD code used for the simulations is based on the space-time Conservation Element and Solution Element (CESE) method. Steady-state results were validated using the Wind-US code and a code utilizing the MacCormack method while the unsteady results were partially validated via an aeroacoustic benchmark problem. The CESE steady-state flow field solutions showed excellent agreement with solutions derived from the other methods and codes while preliminary unsteady results for the three-stream plug nozzle are also shown. Additionally, a study was performed to explore the sensitivity of gross thrust computations to the control surface definition. The results showed that most of the sensitivity while computing the gross thrust is attributed to the control surface stencil resolution and choice of stencil end points and not to the control surface definition itself.Finally, comparisons between the quasi-1D and 2D-axisymetric solutions were performed in order to gain insight on whether a quasi-1D solution can capture the steady and unsteady nozzle phenomena without the cost of a 2D-axisymmetric simulation. Initial results show that while the quasi-1D solutions are similar to the 2D-axisymmetric solutions, the inability of the quasi-1D simulations to predict two dimensional phenomena limits its accuracy.

Description: No abstract available

Description: CrIS is the infrared high spectral resolution atmospheric sounder launched on Suomi-NPP in 2011. CrISATMS comprise the IRMW Sounding Suite on Suomi-NPP. CrIS is functionally equivalent to AIRS, the high spectral resolution IR sounder launched on EOS Aqua in 2002 and ATMS is functionally equivalent to AMSU on EOS Aqua. CrIS is an interferometer and AIRS is a grating spectrometer. Spectral coverage, spectral resolution, and channel noise of CrIS is similar to AIRS. CrIS spectral sampling is roughly twice as coarse as AIRSAIRS has 2378 channels between 650 cm-1 and 2665 cm-1. CrIS has 1305 channels between 650 cm-1 and 2550 cm-1. Spatial resolution of CrIS is comparable to AIRS.

Description: Supersonic inlets with external compression, having a good level performance at the critical operating point, exhibit a marked instability of the flow in some subcritical operation below a critical value of the capture mass flow ratio. This takes the form of severe oscillations of the shock system, commonly known as "buzz". The underlying purpose of this study is to indicate how Detached Eddy Simulation (DES) analysis of supersonic inlets will alter how we envision unsteady inlet aerodynamics, particularly inlet buzz. Presented in this paper is a discussion regarding the physical explanation underlying inlet buzz as indicated by DES analysis. It is the normal shock wave boundary layer separation along the spike surface which reduces the capture mass flow that is the controlling mechanism which determines the onset of inlet buzz, and it is the aerodynamic characteristics of a choked nozzle that provide the feedback mechanism that sustains the buzz cycle by imposing a fixed mean corrected inlet weight flow. Comparisons between the DES analysis of the Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMCO) N+2 inlet and schlieren photographs taken during the test of the Gulfstream Large Scale Low Boom (LSLB) inlet in the NASA 8x6 ft. Supersonic Wind Tunnel (SWT) show a strong similarity both in turbulent flow field structure and shock wave formation during the buzz cycle. This demonstrates the value of DES analysis for the design and understanding of supersonic inlets.

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Description: NASA's LSP and other programs at Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) use wind forecasts issued by the 30th Operational Support Squadron (30 OSS) to determine if they need to limit activities or protect property such as a launch vehicle due to the occurrence of warning level winds at VAFB in California. The 30 OSS tasked the AMU to provide a wind forecasting capability to improve wind warning forecasts and enhance the safety of their customers' operations. This would allow 30 OSS forecasters to evaluate pressure gradient thresholds between pairs of regional observing stations to help determine the onset and duration of warning category winds. Development of such a tool will require that solid relationships exist between wind speed and the pressure gradient of one or more station pairs. As part of this task, the AMU will also create a statistical climatology of meteorological observations from the VAFB wind towers.

Description: No abstract available

Description: We introduce global cloud regimes (previously also referred to as "weather states") derived from cloud retrievals that use measurements by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument aboard the Aqua and Terra satellites. The regimes are obtained by applying clustering analysis on joint histograms of retrieved cloud top pressure and cloud optical thickness. By employing a compositing approach on data sets from satellites and other sources, we examine regime structural and thermodynamical characteristics. We establish that the MODIS cloud regimes tend to form in distinct dynamical and thermodynamical environments and have diverse profiles of cloud fraction and water content. When compositing radiative fluxes from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System instrument and surface precipitation from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project, we find that regimes with a radiative warming effect on the atmosphere also produce the largest implied latent heat. Taken as a whole, the results of the study corroborate the usefulness of the cloud regime concept, reaffirm the fundamental nature of the regimes as appropriate building blocks for cloud system classification, clarify their association with standard cloud types, and underscore their distinct radiative and hydrological signatures.

Description: The goal of this presentation is to help the Teachers in Space candidates understand Space Weather and its implications for flight.

Description: From May 2011 through July 2013, the lightning instrumentation at Launch Complex 39B (LC39B) at the Kennedy Space Center, Florida, has obtained high-speed video records and field change waveforms (dE/dt and three-axis dH/dt) for 54 negative polarity return strokes whose strike termination locations and times are known with accuracy of the order of 10 m or less and 1 s, respectively. A total of 18 strokes terminated directly to the LC39B lighting protection system (LPS), which contains three 181 m towers in a triangular configuration, an overhead catenary wire system on insulating masts, and nine down conductors. An additional 9 strokes terminated on the 106 m lightning protection mast of Launch Complex 39A (LC39A), which is located about 2.7 km southeast of LC39B. The remaining 27 return strokes struck either on the ground or attached to low-elevation grounded objects within about 500 m of the LC39B LPS. Leader/return stroke sequences were imaged at 3200 frames/sec by a network of six Phantom V310 high-speed video cameras. Each of the three towers on LC39B had two high-speed cameras installed at the 147 m level with overlapping fields of view of the center of the pad. The locations of the strike points of 54 return strokes have been compared to time-correlated reports of the Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) and the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN), and the results of this comparison will be presented and discussed.

Description: Halos at 22 deg from the sun attributed to randomly-orientated, pristine hexagonal crystals are frequently observed through ice clouds. These frequent sightings of halos formed by pristine crystals pose an apparent inconsistency with the dominance of distorted, nonpristine ice crystals indicated by in situ and remote sensing data. Furthermore, the 46 deg halo, which is associated with pristine hexagonal crystals as well, is observed far less frequently than the 22 deg halo. Considering that plausible mechanisms that could cause crystal distortion such as aggregation, sublimation, riming and collisions are stochastic processes that likely lead to distributions of crystals with varying distortion levels, here the presence of the 22 deg and 46 deg halo features in phase functions of mixtures of pristine and distorted hexagonal ice crystals is examined. We conclude that the 22 deg halo feature is generally present if the contribution by pristine crystals to the total scattering cross section is greater than only about 10% in the case of compact particles or columns, and greater than about 40% for plates. The 46 deg halo feature is present only if the mean distortion level is low and the contribution of pristine crystals to the total scattering cross section is above about 20%, 50% and 70%, in the case of compact crystals, plates and columns, respectively. These results indicate that frequent sightings of 22 deg halos are not inconsistent with the observed dominance of distorted, non-pristine ice crystals. Furthermore, the low mean distortion levels and large contributions by pristine crystals needed to produce the 461 halo features provide a potential explanation of the common sighting of the 22 deg halo without any detectable 46 deg halo.

Description: We compare C5 and C6 validation to compare the C6 10 km aerosol product against the well validated and trusted aerosol product on global and regional scales. Only the 10 km aerosol product is evaluated in this study, validation of the new C6 3 km aerosol product still needs to be performed. Not all of the time series has processed yet for C5 or C6, and the years processed for the 2 products is not exactly the same (this work is preliminary!). To reduce the impact of outlier observations, MODIS is spatially averaged within 27.5 km of the AERONET site, and AERONET is temporatally averaged within 30 minutes of the MODIS overpass time. Only high quality (QA = 3 over land, QA greater than 0 over ocean) pixels are included in the mean.

Description: Satellite measurements of global aerosol properties are very useful in constraining aerosol parameterization in climate models. The reliability of different data sets in representing global and regional aerosol variability becomes an essential question. In this study, we present the results of a comparison using combined principal component analysis (CPCA), applied to monthly mean, mapped (Level 3) aerosol optical depth (AOD) product from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). This technique effectively finds the common space-time variability in the multiple data sets by decomposing the combined AOD field. The results suggest that all of the sensors capture the globally important aerosol regimes, including dust, biomass burning, pollution, and mixed aerosol types. Nonetheless, differences are also noted. Specifically, compared with MISR and OMI, MODIS variability is significantly higher over South America, India, and the Sahel. MODIS deep blue AOD has a lower seasonal variability in North Africa, accompanied by a decreasing trend that is not found in either MISR or OMI AOD data. The narrow swath of MISR results in an underestimation of dust variability over the Taklamakan Desert. The MISR AOD data also exhibit overall lower variability in South America and the Sahel. OMI does not capture the Russian wild fire in 2010 nor the phase shift in biomass burning over East South America compared to Central South America, likely due to cloud contamination and the OMI row anomaly. OMI also indicates a much stronger (boreal) winter peak in South Africa compared with MODIS and MISR.

Description: A parameterization is presented that provides extinction cross section sigma (sub e), single-scattering albedo omega, and asymmetry parameter (g) of ice crystals for any combination of volume, projected area, aspect ratio, and crystal distortion at any wavelength in the shortwave. Similar to previous parameterizations, the scheme makes use of geometric optics approximations and the observation that optical properties of complex, aggregated ice crystals can be well approximated by those of single hexagonal crystals with varying size, aspect ratio, and distortion levels. In the standard geometric optics implementation used here, sigma (sub e) is always twice the particle projected area. It is shown that omega is largely determined by the newly defined absorption size parameter and the particle aspect ratio. These dependences are parameterized using a combination of exponential, lognormal, and polynomial functions. The variation of (g) with aspect ratio and crystal distortion is parameterized for one reference wavelength using a combination of several polynomials. The dependences of g on refractive index and omega are investigated and factors are determined to scale the parameterized (g) to provide values appropriate for other wavelengths. The parameterization scheme consists of only 88 coefficients. The scheme is tested for a large variety of hexagonal crystals in several wavelength bands from 0.2 to 4 micron, revealing absolute differences with reference calculations of omega and (g) that are both generally below 0.015. Over a large variety of cloud conditions, the resulting root-mean-squared differences with reference calculations of cloud reflectance, transmittance, and absorptance are 1.4%, 1.1%, and 3.4%, respectively. Some practical applications of the parameterization in atmospheric models are highlighted.

Description: No abstract available

Description: Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly -0.5 Mg ha(sup 1) per degC. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.

Description: Understanding climate sensitivity is critical to projecting climate change in response to a given forcing scenario. Recent analyses have suggested that transient climate sensitivity is at the low end of the present model range taking into account the reduced warming rates during the past 10-15 years during which forcing has increased markedly. In contrast, comparisons of modelled feedback processes with observations indicate that the most realistic models have higher sensitivities. Here I analyse results from recent climate modelling intercomparison projects to demonstrate that transient climate sensitivity to historical aerosols and ozone is substantially greater than the transient climate sensitivity to CO2. This enhanced sensitivity is primarily caused by more of the forcing being located at Northern Hemisphere middle to high latitudes where it triggers more rapid land responses and stronger feedbacks. I find that accounting for this enhancement largely reconciles the two sets of results, and I conclude that the lowest end of the range of transient climate response to CO2 in present models and assessments (less than 1.3 C) is very unlikely.

Description: Regional droughts are common in North America, but pan-continental droughts extending across multiple regions, including the 2012 event, are rare relative to single-region events. Here, the tree-ring-derived North American Drought Atlas is used to investigate drought variability in four regions over the last millennium, focusing on pan-continental droughts. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), the central plains (CP), Southwest (SW), and Southeast (SE) regions experienced drier conditions and increased occurrence of droughts and the Northwest (NW) experienced several extended pluvials. Enhanced MCA aridity in the SW and CP manifested as multidecadal megadroughts. Notably, megadroughts in these regions differed in their timing and persistence, suggesting that they represent regional events influenced by local dynamics rather than a unified, continental-scale phenomena. There is no trend in pan-continental drought occurrence, defined as synchronous droughts in three or more regions. SW, CP, and SE (SW+CP+SE) droughts are the most common, occurring in 12 percent of all years and peaking in prevalence during the twelfth and thirteenth centuries; patterns involving three other regions occur in about 8 percent of years. Positive values of the Southern Oscillation index (La Nina conditions) are linked to SW, CP, and SE (SW+CP+SE) droughts and SW, CP, and NW (SW+CP+NW) droughts, whereas CP, NW, and SE (CP+NW+SE) droughts are associated with positive values of the Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. While relatively rare, pan-continental droughts are present in the paleo record and are linked to defined modes of climate variability, implying the potential for seasonal predictability. Assuming stable drought teleconnections, these events will remain an important feature of future North American hydroclimate, possibly increasing in their severity in step with other expected hydroclimate responses to increased greenhouse gas forcing.

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Description: The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; this conference) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end-to-end physical and dynamical basis for coupling total lightning flash rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relationship to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation-sized ice mass, etc.; however, their relationship specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

Description: There are 2 basic precipitation retrieval methods using passive microwave measurements: (1) Emission-based: Based on the tendency of liquid precipitation to cause an increase in brightness temperature (BT) primarily at frequencies below 22 GHz over a radiometrically cold background, often an ocean background (e.g., Spencer et al. 1989; Adler et al. 1991; McGaughey et al. 1996); and (2) Scattering-based: Based on the tendency of precipitation-sized ice to scatter upwelling radiation, thereby reducing the measured BT over a relatively warmer (usually land) background at frequencies generally 37 GHz (e.g., Spencer et al. 1989; Smith et al. 1992; Ferraro and Marks 1995). Passive microwave measurements have also been used to detect intense convection (e.g., Spencer and Santek 1985) and for the detection of hail (e.g., Cecil 2009; Cecil and Blankenship 2012; Ferraro et al. 2014). The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission expands upon the successful Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission program to provide global rainfall and snowfall observations every 3 hours (Hou et al. 2014). One of the instruments on board the GPM Core Observatory is the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) which is a conically-scanning microwave radiometer with 13 channels ranging from 10-183 GHz. Goal of this study: Determine the signatures of various hydrometeor species in terms of BTs measured at frequencies used by GMI by using data collected on 3 case days (all having intense/severe convection) during the Mid-latitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment conducted over Oklahoma in 2011.

Description: How much ice is there in the Tropical Tropopause layer, globally? How does one begin to answer that question? Clouds are currently the largest source of uncertainty in climate models, and the ice water content (IWC) of cold cirrus clouds is needed to understand the total water and radiation budgets of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS). The Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) satellite, originally a "pathfinder" mission only expected to last for three years, has now been operational for more than eight years. Lidar data from CALIPSO can provide information about how IWC is vertically distributed in the UT/LS, and about inter-annual variability and seasonal changes in cloud ice. However, cloud IWC is difficult to measure accurately with either remote or in situ instruments because IWC from cold cirrus clouds is derived from the particle cross-sectional area or visible extinction coefficient. Assumptions must be made about the relationship between the area, volume and density of ice particles with various crystal habits. Recently there have been numerous aircraft field campaigns providing detailed information about cirrus ice water content from cloud probes. This presentation evaluates the assumptions made when creating the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) global IWC data set, using recently reanalyzed aircraft particle probe measurements of very cold, thin TTL cirrus from the 2006 CR-AVE.

Description: This paper describes an efficient and unique method for computing the shortwave direct radiative effect (DRE) of aerosol residing above low-level liquid-phase clouds using CALIOP and MODIS data. It accounts for the overlapping of aerosol and cloud rigorously by utilizing the joint histogram of cloud optical depth and cloud top pressure. Effects of sub-grid scale cloud and aerosol variations on DRE are accounted for. It is computationally efficient through using grid-level cloud and aerosol statistics, instead of pixel-level products, and a pre-computed look-up table in radiative transfer calculations. We verified that for smoke over the southeast Atlantic Ocean the method yields a seasonal mean instantaneous shortwave DRE that generally agrees with more rigorous pixel-level computation within 4. We have also computed the annual mean instantaneous shortwave DRE of light-absorbing aerosols (i.e., smoke and polluted dust) over global ocean based on 4 yr of CALIOP and MODIS data. We found that the variability of the annual mean shortwave DRE of above-cloud light-absorbing aerosol is mainly driven by the optical depth of the underlying clouds.

Description: No abstract available

Description: No abstract available

Description: No abstract available