ALBERT

Description: Sensitivity of marine crustaceans to anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the associated acidification of the oceans may be less than that of other, especially lower, invertebrates. However, effects on critical transition phases or carry-over effects between life stages have not comprehensively been explored. Here we report the impact of elevated seawater PCO2 values (3100 µatm) on Hyas araneus during the last 2 weeks of their embryonic development (pre-hatching phase) and during development while in the consecutive zoea I and zoea II larval stages (post-hatching phase). We measured oxygen consumption, dry weight, developmental time and mortality in zoea I to assess changes in performance. Feeding rates and survival under starvation were investigated at different temperatures to detect differences in thermal sensitivities of zoea I and zoea II larvae depending on pre-hatch history. When embryos were pre-exposed to elevated PCO2 during maternal care, mortality increased about 60% under continued CO2 exposure during the zoea I phase. The larvae that moulted into zoea II, displayed a developmental delay by about 20 days compared to larvae exposed to control PCO2 during embryonic and zoeal phases. Elevated PCO2 caused a reduction in zoea I dry weight and feeding rates, while survival of the starved larvae was not affected by the seawater CO2 concentration. In conclusion, CO2 effects on egg masses under maternal care carried over to the first larval stages of crustaceans and reduced their survival and development to levels below those previously reported in studies exclusively focussing on acute PCO2 effects on the larval stages.

Description: In complex ecosystem models, relationships between species include a large number of direct interactions and indirect effects. In order to unveil some simple and better understandable relationships, it is useful to study the asymmetry of inter-specific effects. We present a simple approach for this based on stochastic food web simulations from previous studies. We refer to the Prince William Sound (Gulf of Alaska) marine ecosystem model for illustration. Real data were used to parameterize a dynamical food web model. Through simulations and sensitivity analysis, we determined the strength of the effects between all species. We calculated the asymmetry between the mutual effects species have on each other, and selected the top 5% most asymmetrical interactions. The set of these highly asymmetrical relationships is illustrated by a separate graph in which we calculated the positional importance of the species and correlated this to other independent properties such as population size and trophic position. Results suggest that halibut is the key species dominating this system of asymmetrical interactions, but sablefish and adult arrowtooth flounder also seem to be of high importance. Nearshore demersals display the highest number of connections in the graph of asymmetrical links, suggesting that this trophic group regulates the dynamics of many species in the food web. This approach identifies key interactions and most asymmetrical relationships, potentially increasing the efficiency of management efforts and aiding conservation efforts.

Description: In this study, the authors discuss two different parameterizations for the effect of mixed layer eddies, one based on ageostrophic linear stability analysis (ALS) and the other one based on a scaling of the potential energy release by eddies (PER). Both parameterizations contradict each other in two aspects. First, they predict different functional relationships between the magnitude of the eddy fluxes and the Richardson number (Ri) related to the background state. Second, they also predict different vertical structure functions for the horizontal eddy fluxes. Numerical simulations for two different configurations and for a large range of different background conditions are used to evaluate the parameterizations. It turns out that PER is better suited to capture the Ri dependency of the magnitude of the eddy fluxes. On the other hand, the vertical structure of the meridional eddy fluxes predicted by ALS is more accurate than that of PER, while the vertical structure of the vertical eddy fluxes is well predicted by both parameterizations. Therefore, this study suggests the use of the magnitude of PER and the vertical structure functions of ALS for an improved parameterization of mixed layer eddy fluxes.

Description: Northern Hemisphere stratospheric variability is investigated with respect to chaotic behavior using time series from three different variables extracted from four different reanalysis products and two numerical model runs with different forcing. The time series show red spectra at all frequencies and the probability distribution functions show persistent deviations from a Gaussian distribution. An exception is given by the numerical model forced with perpetual winter conditions—a case that shows more variability and follows a Gaussian distribution, suggesting that the deviation from Gaussianity found in the observations is due to the transition between summer and winter variability. To search for the presence of a chaotic attractor the correlation dimension and entropy, the Lyapunov spectrum, and the associated Kaplan–Yorke dimension are estimated. A finite value of the dimensions can be computed for each variable and data product, with the correlation dimension ranging between 3.0 and 4.0 and the Kaplan–Yorke dimension between 3.3 and 5.5. The correlation entropy varies between 0.6 and 1.1. The model runs show similar values for the correlation and Lyapunov dimensions for both the seasonally forced run and the perpetual-winter run, suggesting that the structure of a possible chaotic attractor is not determined by the seasonality in the forcing, but must be given by other mechanisms.

Description: Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric variability is investigated with respect to chaotic behavior using time series from three different variables extracted from four different reanalysis products. The results are compared with the same analysis applied to the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The probability density functions (PDFs) for the SH show persistent deviations from a Gaussian distribution. The variability is given by white spectra for low frequencies, a slope of −1 for intermediate frequencies, and −3 slopes for high frequencies. Considering the time series for winter and summer separately, PDFs show a Gaussian distribution and the variability spectra change their slopes, indicating the role of the transition between winter and summer variability in shaping the time series. The correlation (D2) and the Kaplan–Yorke (DKY) dimensions are estimated. A finite value of the dimensions can be computed for each variable and data product, except for the NCEP zonal-mean zonal wind and temperature data, which violate the requirement D2 ≤ DKY, possibly owing to the presence of spurious trends and inconsistencies in the data. The value of D2 ranges between 2.6 and 3.9, while DKY ranges between 3.0 and 4.5. The results show that both D2 and DKY display large variability in their values both for different datasets and for different variables within the same dataset. The variability of the values of D2 and DKY thus leaves open the question about the existence of a low-dimensional attractor or if the finite dimensions of the system are the result of the projection of a larger attractor in a low-dimensional embedding space.

Description: The sensitivities of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) to different distributions of tropical SST heating are investigated in an idealized aquaplanet model. It is found that an increase in tropical SSTs generally leads to an acceleration of tropical upwelling and an associated reduction in the age of air (AOA) in the polar stratosphere and that the AOA near the subtropical tropopause is correlated with local isentropic mixing of tropospheric air with stratospheric air. The zonal distribution of SST perturbations has a major impact on the vertical and meridional structure of the BDC as compared with other SST characteristics. Zonally localized SST heatings tend to generate a shallow acceleration of the stratospheric residual circulation, enhanced isentropic mixing associated with a weakened stratospheric jet, and a reduction in AOA mostly within the polar vortex. In contrast, SST heatings with a zonally symmetric structure tend to produce a deep strengthening of the stratospheric residual circulation, suppressed isentropic mixing associated with a stronger stratospheric jet, and a decrease of AOA in the entire stratosphere. The shallow versus deep strengthening of the stratospheric residual circulation change has been linked to wave propagation and dissipation in the subtropical lower stratosphere rather than wave generation in the troposphere, and the former can be strongly affected by the vertical position of the subtropical jet. These results suggest that, while the longitudinally localized SST trends under climate change may contribute to the change in the shallow branch of the BDC, the upward shift of the subtropical jet associated with the zonal SST heating can impact the deep branch of the BDC.

Description: The authors test the hypothesis that recent observed trends in surface westerlies in the Southern Hemisphere are directly consequent on observed trends in the timing of stratospheric final warming events. The analysis begins by verifying that final warming events have an impact on tropospheric circulation in a simplified GCM driven by specified equilibrium temperature distributions. Seasonal variations are imposed in the stratosphere only. The model produces qualitatively realistic final warming events whose influence extends down to the surface, much like what has been reported in observational analyses. The authors then go on to study observed trends in surface westerlies composited with respect to the date of final warming events. If the considered hypothesis were correct, these trends would appear to be much weaker when composited with respect to the date of the final warming events. The authors find that this is not the case, and accordingly they conclude that the observed surface changes cannot be attributed simply to this shift toward later final warming events.

Description: Simultaneous analysis of carbon, nitrogen and sulphur stable isotope ratios was applied in this pilot study to examine the food web of a Zostera marina L. system in the western Baltic Sea. Samples of three potential food sources: eelgrass, epiphytic algae and seston, as well as 69 consumer species were collected during the growing season of Z. marina from March to September 2011. The measured δ13C values of epiphytes (-14.1‰ ± 1.8 SD) were close to δ13C values of eelgrass (-11.6‰ ± 1.8 SD), impeding a clear distinction of those two carbon sources, whereas seston δ13C values (-20.9‰ ± 3.5 SD) were clearly different. This frequently encountered problem was solved by the additional use of δ34S, which resulted in easily distinguishable values for sediment and seawater derived sulphur. Values of primary producer δ34S ranged from 5.6‰ (± 2.3 SD) for Z. marina leaves to 14.2‰ (± 1.6 SD) for epiphytes and 11.9‰ (± 3.3 SD) for seston. The combination of δ34S and δ13C values made a separation of carbon sources possible and enabled the allocation of potential food sources to consumers and a description of their trophic relationships. The data of stable isotope ratio analysis of this eelgrass community strongly indicate a food web based on epiphyte and seston production. δ15N values show a food web consisting of large numbers of generalists and a high degree of omnivory amongst the consumer species analysed. This implies an occupation of every trophic position possible, which is supported by a continuous distribution of δ15N values. Previously described eelgrass food webs may have to be re-evaluated to include sulfur in order to provide a clear picture on primary carbon sources.

Description: Simultaneous triple stable isotope analysis of carbon, nitrogen and sulphur was employed to study the temporal variation in the food web of a subtidal eelgrass Zostera marina bed in the western Baltic Sea. Samples of 3 potential food sources (eelgrass, epiphytes and seston) and consumer species were collected biweekly from March through September 2011. Temporal variation of stable isotope compositions was observed in primary producers and consumer species. However, variation between replicates, particularly omnivores, often exceeded variation over time. The high degree of omnivory among the generalist feeders in this eelgrass community allows for generalist feeders to flexibly switch food sources, thus enhancing food-web stability. As coastal systems are subject to seasonal changes, as well as alterations related to human disturbance and climate, these food webs may retain a certain resilience due to their plentiful omnivores.

Description: Precipitation is highly variable in space and time; hence, rain gauge time series generally exhibit additional random small-scale variability compared to area averages. Therefore, differences between daily precipitation statistics simulated by climate models and gauge observations are generally not only caused by model biases, but also by the corresponding scale gap. Classical bias correction methods, in general, cannot bridge this gap; they do not account for small-scale random variability and may produce artifacts. Here, stochastic model output statistics is proposed as a bias correction framework to explicitly account for random small-scale variability. Daily precipitation simulated by a regional climate model (RCM) is employed to predict the probability distribution of local precipitation. The pairwise correspondence between predictor and predictand required for calibration is ensured by driving the RCM with perfect boundary conditions. Wet day probabilities are described by a logistic regression, and precipitation intensities are described by a mixture model consisting of a gamma distribution for moderate precipitation and a generalized Pareto distribution for extremes. The dependence of the model parameters on simulated precipitation is modeled by a vector generalized linear model. The proposed model effectively corrects systematic biases and correctly represents local-scale random variability for most gauges. Additionally, a simplified model is considered that disregards the separate tail model. This computationally efficient model proves to be a feasible alternative for precipitation up to moderately extreme intensities. The approach sets a new framework for bias correction that combines the advantages of weather generators and RCMs.

Description: There is an ongoing discussion in the community concerning the wave-averaged momentum equations in the hybrid vertically Lagrangian and horizontally Eulerian (VL) framework and, in particular, the form stress term (representing the residual effect of pressure perturbations) which is thought to restrict the handling of higher order waves in terms of a perturbation expansion. The present study shows that the traditional pressure-based form stress term can be transformed into a set of terms that do not contain any pressure quantities but do contain the time derivative of a wave-induced velocity. This wave-induced velocity is referred to as the pseudomomentum in the VL framework, as it is analogous to the generalized pseudomomentum in Andrews and McIntyre. This enables the second expression for the wave-averaged momentum equations in the VL framework (this time for the development of the total transport velocity minus the VL pseudomomentum) to be derived together with the vortex force. The velocity-based expression of the form stress term also contains the residual effect of the turbulent viscosity, which is useful for understanding the dissipation of wave energy leading to transfer of momentum from waves to circulation. It is found that the concept of the virtual wave stress of Longuet-Higgins is applicable to quite general situations: it does not matter whether there is wind forcing or not, the waves can have slow variations, and the viscosity coefficient can vary in the vertical. These results provide a basis for revisiting the surface boundary condition used in numerical circulation models.

Description: Mooring observations and model simulations point to an instability of the Labrador Current (LC) during winter, with enhanced eddy kinetic energy (EKE) at periods between 2 to 5 days, and much less EKE during other seasons. Linear stability analysis using vertical shear and stratification from the model reveals three dominant modes of instability in the LC: - a balanced interior mode with along-flow wavelengths of about 30–45 km, phase velocities of 0.3 m/s, maximal growth rates of 1 d−1 and surface intensified, but deep reaching amplitudes, - a balanced shallow mode with along-flow wavelengths of about 0.3–1.5 km, about three times larger phase speeds and growth rates, but amplitudes confined to the mixed layer (ML), - and an unbalanced symmetric mode with largest growth rates, vanishing phase speeds and along-flow structure, and very small cross-flow wavelengths, also confined to the ML. Both balanced modes are akin to baroclinic instability, but operate at moderate to small Richardson numbers Ri with much larger growth rates as for the quasi-geostrophic limit of Ri ≫ 1. The interior mode is found to be responsible for the instability of the LC during winter. Weak stratification and enhanced vertical shear due to local buoyancy loss and the advection of convective water masses from the interior result in small Ri within the LC, and to three times larger growth rates of the interior mode in March compared to summer and fall conditions. Both the shallow and the symmetric mode are not resolved by the model, but it is suggested that they might also play an important role for the instability in the LC and for lateral mixing.

Description: Sensible and latent heat fluxes were estimated from turbulence measurements gathered during several Atlantic transects of the R/V Polarstern. The inertial dissipation method was used to analyze the data. Resulting bulk transfer coefficients were then applied to the data from the ship’s meteorological system to get continuous time series of the heat fluxes. Combined to the measured downward solar and longwave radiation fluxes allows for an estimate of the total energy budget at the air-sea interface. Comparing these parameterized energy fluxes to ones based on the COARE 3.0 bulk flux algorithm show very strong agreement.

Description: The dynamical origin of the spectral and autocorrelation structure of annular variability in the troposphere is investigated by a deductive approach. Specifically, the structure of the power spectrum and autocorrelation function of the zonal-mean geopotential is analyzed for the case of a quasigeostrophic spherical atmosphere subject to a white noise mechanical forcing applied in a single Hough mode and concentrated at a particular level in the vertical, with vertically uniform Newtonian cooling and Rayleigh drag concentrated at a rigid lower boundary. Analytic expressions for the power spectrum are presented together with expressions for an approximate red noise (i.e., a Lorentzian-shaped) power spectrum. It is found that for an infinitely deep atmosphere the power spectrum can be well approximated by a red noise process for the first few Hough modes (associated with large Rossby heights), provided the distance from the forcing is not larger than about one Rossby height. When a frictional rigid lower boundary is included, however, the approximation is generally bad. The high-frequency part of the power spectrum exhibits near-exponential behavior and the autocorrelation function shows a transition from a rapid decay at short lags to a much slower decay at longer lags, if the thermal and mechanical damping time scales are sufficiently well separated. Since observed annular variability exhibits the same characteristics, the above results lead to the hypothesis that these characteristics may, to some extent, be intrinsic to the linear zonal-mean response problem—although the need for an additional contribution from eddy feedbacks is also implied by the results.

Description: Cyprinid herpesvirus 3 (CyHV-3) is the aetiological agent of a highly virulent and lethal disease of common carp Cyprinus carpio and its ornamental koi varieties. However, specific knowledge about immune mechanisms behind the infection process is very limited. We aimed to evaluate the effect of the CyHV-3 infection on the profile of 2 major components of the common carp immune acute phase response: the C-reactive protein (CRP) and the complement system. Common carp were infected with CyHV-3 by bath immersion. Fish were sampled before the infection and at 6, 12, 24, 72, 120 and 336 h post-infection for serum and head kidney, liver, gill and spleen tissues. CRP levels and complement activity were determined from the serum, whereas CRP- and complement-related genes (crp1, crp2, c1rs, bf/c2, c3, masp2) expression profiles were analysed in the tissues by quantitative PCR. Both CRP levels and complement activity increased significantly up to 10- and 3-fold, respectively, in the serum of infected fish during the challenge. Analysis revealed distinct organ- and time-dependent expression profile patterns for all selected genes. These results suggest that CRP and complement behave as acute phase reactants to CyHV-3 infection in common carp with an organ- and time-dependent response.

Description: A representation of an equatorial basin mode excited in a shallow water model for a single high order baroclinic vertical normal mode is used as a simple model for the equatorial deep jets. The model is linearized about both a state of rest and a barotropic mean flow corresponding to the observed Atlantic Equatorial Intermediate Current System. We found that the eastward mean flow associated with the North and South Intermediate Counter Currents (NICC and SICC, respectively) effectively shields the Equator from off-equatorial Rossby waves. The westward propagation of these waves is blocked and focusing on the Equator due to beta dispersion is prevented. This leads to less energetic jets along the Equator. On the other hand, the westward barotropic mean flow along the Equator reduces the gradient of absolute vorticity and hence widens the cross-equatorial structure of the basin mode. Increasing lateral viscosity predominantly affects the width of the basin modes’ Kelvin wave component in the presence of the mean flow while the Rossby wave is confined by the flanking NICC and SICC. Independent of the presence of the mean flow, the application of sufficient lateral mixing also hinders the focusing of off-equatorial Rossby waves, which is hence an unlikely feature of a low-frequency basin mode in the real ocean.

Description: A decadal change in the character of ENSO was observed around year 2000 toward weaker-amplitude, higher-frequency events with an increased occurrence of central Pacific El Niños. Here these changes are assessed in terms of the Bjerknes stability index (BJ index), which is a measure of the growth rate of ENSO-related SST anomalies. The individual terms of the index are calculated from ocean reanalysis products separately for the time periods 1980–99 and 2000–10. The spread between the products is large, but they show a robust weakening of the thermocline feedback due to a reduced thermocline slope response to anomalous zonal wind stress as well as a weakened wind stress response to eastern equatorial Pacific SST anomalies. These changes are consistent with changes in the background state of the tropical Pacific: cooler mean SST in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific results in reduced convection there together with a westward shift in the ascending branch of the Walker circulation. This shift leads to a weakening in the relationship between eastern Pacific SST and longitudinally averaged equatorial zonal wind stress. Also, despite a steeper mean thermocline slope in the more recent period, the thermocline slope response to wind stress anomalies weakened due to a smaller zonal wind fetch that results from ENSO-related wind anomalies being more confined to the western basin. As a result, the total BJ index is more negative, corresponding to a more strongly damped system in the past decade compared to the 1980s and 1990s.

Description: In his comment, G. Bürger criticizes the conclusion that inflation of trends by quantile mapping is an adverse effect.He assumes that the argument would be ‘‘based on the belief that long-term trends and along with them future climate signals are to be large scale.’’ His line of argument reverts to the so-called inflated regression. Here it is shown, by referring to previous critiques of inflation and standard literature in statistical modeling as well as weather forecasting, that inflation is built upon a wrong understanding of explained versus unexplained variability and prediction versus simulation. It is argued that a sound regressionbased downscaling can in principle introduce systematic local variability in long-term trends, but inflation systematically deteriorates the representation of trends. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that inflation by construction deteriorates weather forecasts and is not able to correctly simulate small-scale spatiotemporal structure.

Description: The relationship between the Agulhas Current and the Agulhas leakage is not well understood. Here, this is investigated using two basin-scale and two global ocean models, of incrementally increasing resolution. The response of the Agulhas Current is evaluated under a series of sensitivity experiments, in which idealised anomalies, designed to geometrically modulate zonal trade wind stress, are applied across the Indian Ocean basin. The imposed wind stress changes exceed ±2 standard deviations from the annual mean trade winds and, in the case of intensification, are partially representative of recently observed trends. The Agulhas leakage is quantified using complimentary techniques based on Lagrangian virtual floats and Eulerian passive tracer flux. As resolution increases, model behavior converges and the sensitivity of the leakage to Agulhas Current transport anomalies is reduced. In the two eddy-resolving configurations tested, the leakage is insensitive to changes in Agulhas Current transport at 32°S, though substantial eddy kinetic energy anomalies are evident. Consistent with observations, the position of the retroflection remains stable. The decoupling of Agulhas Current variability from the Agulhas leakage suggests that, while correlations between the two may exist, they may not have a clear dynamical basis. It is suggested that present and future Agulhas leakage proxies be considered in the context of potentially transient forcing regimes.

Description: Since the Industrial Revolution, the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) has been increasing and global ocean surface waters have absorbed 30% of the anthropogenic CO2 released into the atmosphere. An increase in pCO2 in surface ocean waters causes an increase in bicarbonate ions (HCO3-) and protons (H+) and a decrease in carbonate ions (CO32-), thereby decreasing the pH and the saturation state of the seawater with respect to CO32-. These changes in ocean chemistry (termed ocean acidification) are expected to have negative impacts on marine calcifying organisms. Because calcifying marine primary producers are important to the carbon cycle and rocky shore habitat structure and stability, investigating how they will respond to future oceanic pCO2 levels is a relevant and important topic of research. Due to a recent strong increase in the number of studies investigating the responses of calcifying marine macroalgae to elevated pCO2, this review aims to present the state of knowledge on the response of calcifying macroalgae to ocean acidification alone and in combination with global and local stressors. We discuss the physiological responses of calcifying macroalgae to elevated pCO2 within the contexts biogeography, taxonomy, and calcification mechanisms. Generally, coralline algae that deposit high-Mg calcite are most susceptible to high pCO2, and polar species are particularly at risk. However, some dolomite-depositing species may be able to acclimate to high pCO2. Calcifiers generally show sensitivity to overgrowth and outcompetition by noncalcifying algae when grown under elevated CO2 conditions, and this trend could be amplified under conditions of high inorganic nutrients. However, it still remains unknown whether or not calcifiers will be able to adapt to their rapidly changing environments. We discuss the lack of research on this topic, and provide some suggestions for how this knowledge gap can be filled by future research.

Description: Ocean acidification has the potential to affect growth and calcification of benthic marine invertebrates, particularly during their early life history. We exposed field-collected juveniles of Asterias rubens from Kiel Fjord (western Baltic Sea) to 3 seawater CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) levels (ranging from around 650 to 3500 µatm) in a long-term (39 wk) and a short-term (6 wk) experiment. In both experiments, survival and calcification were not affected by elevated pCO2. However, feeding rates decreased strongly with increasing pCO2, while aerobic metabolism and NH4+ excretion were not significantly affected by CO2 exposure. Consequently, high pCO2 reduced the scope for growth in A. rubens. Growth rates decreased substantially with increasing pCO2 and were reduced even at pCO2 levels occurring in the habitat today (e.g. during upwelling events). Sea stars were not able to acclimate to higher pCO2, and growth performance did not recover during the long-term experiment. Therefore, the top-down control exerted by this keystone species may be diminished during periods of high environmental pCO2 that already occur occasionally and will be even higher in the future. However, some individuals were able to grow at high rates even at high pCO2, indicating potential for rapid adaption. The selection of adapted specimens of A. rubens in this seasonally acidified habitat may lead to higher CO2 tolerance in adult sea stars of this population compared to the juvenile stage. Future studies need to address the synergistic effects of multiple stressors such as acidification, warming and reduced salinity, which will simultaneously impact the performance of sea stars in this habitat.

Description: A surface diurnal warm layer is diagnosed from Seaglider observations, and develops on half the days in the CINDY/DYNAMO Indian Ocean experiment. The diurnal warm layer occurs on days of high solar radiation flux (〉 80 W m−2) and low wind speed (〈 6 m s−1), and preferentially in the inactive stage of the Madden–Julian Oscillation. Its diurnal harmonic has an exponential vertical structure with a depth scale of 4–5 m (dependent on chlorophyll concentration), consistent with forcing by absorption of solar radiation. The effective sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly due to the diurnal warm layer often reaches 0.8°C in the afternoon, with a daily mean of 0.2°C, rectifying the diurnal cycle onto longer time scales. This SST anomaly drives an anomalous flux of 4 W m−2 that cools the ocean. Alternatively, in a climate model where this process is unresolved, this represents an erroneous flux that warms the ocean. A simple model predicts a diurnal warm layer to occur on 30–50% of days across the tropical warm pool. On the remaining days, with low solar radiation and high wind speeds, a residual diurnal cycle is observed by the Seaglider, with a diurnal harmonic of temperature that decreases linearly with depth. As wind speed increases, this already weak temperature gradient decreases further, tending towards isothermal conditions.

Description: Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Atlantic are connected to modulations in the strength of the South Atlantic subtropical high-pressure system, referred to as the South Atlantic Anticyclone (SAA). Using ocean and atmosphere reanalysis products we show here that the strength of the SAA from February to May impacts the timing of the cold tongue onset and the intensity of its development in the eastern equatorial Atlantic (EEA) via anomalous tropical wind power. This modulation of the timing and amplitude of the seasonal cold tongue development manifests as anomalous SST events peaking between June and August. The timing and impact of this connection is not completely symmetric for warm and cold events. For cold events, an anomalously strong SAA in February and March leads to positive wind power anomalies from February to June resulting in an early cold tongue onset and subsequent cold SST anomalies in June and July. For warm events the anomalously weak SAA persists until May, generating negative wind power anomalies that lead to a late cold tongue onset as well as a suppression of the cold tongue development and associated warm SST anomalies. Mechanisms by which SAA induced wind power variations south of the equator influence EEA SST are discussed, including ocean adjustment via Rossby and Kelvin wave propagation, meridional advection, and local intraseasonal wind variations

Description: We present a detailed quality assessment of a novel underwater sensor for the measurement of CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) based on surface water field deployments carried out between 2008 and 2011. The commercially available sensor, which is based on membrane equilibration and NDIR spectrometry is small and can be integrated into mobile platforms. It is calibrated in water against a proven flow-through pCO2 instrument within a custom-built calibration setup. The aspect of highest concern with respect to achievable data quality of the sensor is the compensation for signal drift inevitably connected to absorption measurements. We use three means to correct for drift effects: (i) a filter correlation or dual-beam setup, (ii) regular zero gas measurements realized automatically within the sensor and (iii) a zero-based transformation of two sensor calibrations flanking the time of sensor deployment. Three sensors were tested against an underway pCO2 system during two major research cruises providing an in situ temperature range from 7.4 to 30.1°C and pCO2 values between 289 and 445 μatm. The average difference between sensor and reference pCO2 was found to be -0.6 ± 3 μatm with a RMSE of 3.7 μatm.

Description: Effects of CO2 concentration on elemental composition of the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi were studied in phosphorus-limited, continuous cultures that were acclimated to experimental conditions for 30 d prior to the first sampling. We determined phytoplankton and bacterial cell numbers, nutrients, particulate components like organic carbon (POC), inorganic carbon (PIC), nitrogen (PN), organic phosphorus (POP), transparent exopolymer particles (TEP), as well as dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and nitrogen (DON), in addition to carbonate system parameters at CO2 levels of 180, 380 and 750 µatm. No significant difference between treatments was observed for any of the measured variables during repeated sampling over a 14 d period. We considered several factors that might lead to these results, i.e. light, nutrients, carbon overconsumption and transient versus steady-state growth. We suggest that the absence of a clear CO2 effect during this study does not necessarily imply the absence of an effect in nature. Instead, the sensitivity of the cell towards environmental stressors such as CO2 may vary depending on whether growth conditions are transient or sufficiently stable to allow for optimal allocation of energy and resources. We tested this idea on previously published data sets where PIC and POC divided by the corresponding cell abundance of E. huxleyi at various pCO2 levels and growth rates were available.

Description: The spatio-temporal origin of surviving juvenile Baltic cod Gadus morhua was investigated by coupling age information from otolith microstructure analysis and hydrodynamic modeling, which allowed backtracking of drift routes in time and space. The suitability of hydrodynamic modeling for drift simulations of early life stages of Baltic cod up to the pelagic juvenile stage was validated by comparing model simulations with the catch distribution from a survey targeting pelagic juveniles, and mortality rates and hatch date distributions of pelagic and demersal juveniles were estimated. Hatch dates and hatch locations of juvenile survivors showed distinct patterns which did not agree well with the abundance and spatial distribution of eggs, suggesting marked spatio-temporal differences in larval survival. The good agreement of the spatio-temporal origin of survivors from this field investigation with previous modeling studies on the survival chances of early-stage larvae and with general spatio-temporal patterns of larval prey availability suggests that differences in survival are related to food availability during the early larval stage. Results are discussed in relation to the recruitment process of Baltic cod, in particular with respect to the critical period and match-mismatch hypotheses, and to possible implications for the placement of a Marine Protected Area which was established to ensure undisturbed spawning of Baltic cod.

Description: Ammassalik in southeast Greenland is known for strong wind events that can reach hurricane intensity and cause severe destruction in the local town. Yet, these winds and their impact on the nearby fjord and shelf region have not been studied in detail. Here, data from two meteorological stations and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) are used to identify and characterize these strong downslope wind events, which are especially pronounced at a major east Greenland fjord, Sermilik Fjord, within Ammassalik. Their local and regional characteristics, their dynamics and their impacts on the regional sea ice cover, and air–sea fluxes are described. Based on a composite of the events it is concluded that wind events last for approximately a day, and seven to eight events occur each winter. Downslope wind events are associated with a deep synoptic-scale cyclone between Iceland and Greenland. During the events, cold dry air is advected down the ice sheet. The downslope flow is accelerated by gravitational acceleration, flow convergence inside the Ammassalik valley, and near the coast by an additional thermal and synoptic-scale pressure gradient acceleration. Wind events are associated with a large buoyancy loss over the Irminger Sea, and it is estimated that they drive one-fifth of the net wintertime loss. Also, the extreme winds drive sea ice out of the fjord and away from the shelf.

Description: In 2013, the vast majority of the monitored climate variables reported here maintained trends established in recent decades. ENSO was in a neutral state during the entire year, remaining mostly on the cool side of neutral with modest impacts on regional weather patterns' around the world. This follows several years dominated by the effects of either La Nina. or El Nino events. According to several independent analyses, 2013 was again among the 10 warmest years on record at the global scale, both at the Earth's surface and through the troposphere. Some regions in the Southern Hemispherehad record or near-record high temperatures for the year. Australia observed its hottest year on record, while Argentina and New Zealand reported their second and third hottest years, respectively. In Antarctica, Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station reported its highest annual temperature since records began in 1957 At the opposite pole, the Arctic observed its seventh warmest year since record's began in the early 20th century. At 20-m depth, record high temperatures were measured at some permafrost stations on the North Slope Of Alaska and in the Brooks Range. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, anomalous meridional atmospheric circulation occurred throughout much of the year leading to marked regional extremes of both temperature and precipitation. Cold temperature anomalies during Winter across Eurasia were followed by warm Spring temperature anomalies, which, were linked to a new record Eurasian snow cover extent in the May. Minimum sea ice extent in the :Arctic was the sixth lowest since satellite Observations began in 1979. Including 2013, all seven lowest extents on record have occurred in the past seven years Antarctica, on the other hand, had above average sea ice extent throughout 2013, with 116 days Of new daily high extent records, inclding a new daily maximum sea ice area of 19.57 million km(2) reached on 1 October. ENSO-neutral conditions in the eastern central Pacific Ocean and a negative Pacific decadal oscillation pattern in the North Pacific had the largest impacts on the global sea surface temperature in 2013: The North Pacific reached a historic high temperature in 2013 and on balance the globally-averaged sea surface temperature was among the 10 highest on record. Overall, the salt Content in near-surface ocean waters increased while in intermediate waters it decreased. Global mean sea level continued to rise during 2013, on pace with a trend of 3,2 mm yr(-1) over the past two decades. A portion of this trend (0.5 mm yr(-1)) has been attributed to natural variability associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation as Well as to ongoing contribution from the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and ocean warming. Global tropical cyclone frequency during 2013 was slightly above average with a total of 94 storms, although the North Atlantic Basin had its quietest hurricane season since 1994. In the Western North Pacific Basin, Super Typhoon Haiyan, the deadliest tropical Cyclone of 2013, had 1-minute sustained winds estimated to be 170 kt (OS m s(-1)) on 7 November, the highest Wind speed ever assigned to a tropical cyclone. High storm surge was also associated with Haiyan at it Made landfall over the central Philippines, an area where sea level is currently at historic highs increasing by 200 mm since 1970. In the atmosphere, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide all Continued to increase in 2013. As in previous our years, each of these Major greenhouse gases once again reached historic high Concentrations. In the Arctic carbon dioxide and methane:, Increased at the same rate as:the global increase. These increases are likely due to export from lower latitudes rather than a consequence Of increases in Arctic sources such as thawing permafrost., At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, for the first time since measurement began in 1958, the daily average Mixing ratio Of carbon dioxide exceeded 400 ppm on 9 May. The state of these variables, along with dozens of others, and the 2013 climate conditions of regions around the world are discussed in further detail in this 24th, edition of the State of the Climate series

Description: We investigated potential connections over the past 2 decades between mesoscale circulation regimes in the Ionian Sea and newly-observed species and the concurrent rise in sea temperature in the Adriatic Sea. Analyses of plankton samples from 1993 to 2011 in the southern Adriatic revealed marked changes in the non-crustacean zooplankton community. Eleven species were recorded for the first time in the Adriatic, while 3 species reappeared after years of absence. We found that pluriannual changes in the zooplankton community tracked the continuum of circulation regimes in the Northern Ionian Gyre (NIG). The occurrence of Atlantic/Western Mediterranean species coincided with anti-cyclonic circulation in the NIG, probably due to the advection of Modified Atlantic Water into the Adriatic, while the presence of Lessepsian species coincided with the cyclonic pattern, which governs the entry of Eastern Mediterranean waters. The impact has been that newcomers now make a significant contribution to the zooplankton community in the southern Adriatic and, in certain cases, have replaced native species. Our results provide new evidence of the influence of teleconnection processes between the North Atlantic and Eastern Mediterranean on the dynamics of water masses in the southern Adriatic. The synergistic effects of these processes, together with warmer Mediterranean waters, raise concerns over dramatic changes in the marine biodiversity of the Adriatic.

Description: The Denmark Strait Overflow (DSO) supplies about one-third of the North Atlantic Deep Water and is critical to global thermohaline circulation. Knowledge of the pathways of DSO through the Irminger Basin and its transformation there is still incomplete, however. The authors deploy over 10 000 Lagrangian particles at the Denmark Strait in a high-resolution ocean model to study these issues. First, the particle trajectories show that the mean position and potential density of dense waters cascading over the Denmark Strait sill evolve consistently with hydrographic observations. These sill particles transit the Irminger Basin to the Spill Jet section (65.25°N) in 5–7 days and to the Angmagssalik section (63.5°N) in 2–3 weeks. Second, the dense water pathways on the continental shelf are consistent with observations and particles released on the shelf in the strait constitute a significant fraction of the dense water particles recorded at the Angmagssalik section within 60 days (~25%). Some particles circulate on the shelf for several weeks before they spill off the shelf break and join the overflow from the sill. Third, there are two places where the water density following particle trajectories decreases rapidly due to intense mixing: to the southwest of the sill and southwest of the Kangerdlugssuaq Trough on the continental slope. After transformation in these places, the overflow particles exhibit a wide range of densities.

Description: Quantile mapping is routinely applied to correct biases of regional climate model simulations compared to observational data. If the observations are of similar resolution as the regional climate model, quantile mapping is a feasible approach. However, if the observations are of much higher resolution, quantile mapping also attempts to bridge this scale mismatch. Here, it is shown for daily precipitation that such quantile mapping-based downscaling is not feasible but introduces similar problems as inflation of perfect prognosis ("prog") downscaling: the spatial and temporal structure of the corrected time series is misrepresented, the drizzle effect for area means is overcorrected, area-mean extremes are overestimated, and trends are affected. To overcome these problems, stochastic bias correction is required.

Description: During the past few decades, the green crab Carcinus maenas, a native to Europe, has invaded the North American Pacific coast. In this new habitat, C. maenas encounters North American periwinkles of the genus Littorina that differ from European Littorina spp. in size, shape and shell strength. We hypothesize that the ability to handle prey never encountered previously is a prerequisite for successful invasion of novel habitats. In a first approach to testing our hypothesis, we compared European (native) to Canadian (invaded) C. maenas in feeding trials with Littorina spp. from Europe as well as Canada. Canadian crabs had significantly larger crusher claws than European crabs of the same size. Prey handling by Baltic crabs, but not by North Sea crabs, significantly depended on shell morphometry and strength of European periwinkles. By contrast, neither European nor Canadian crabs were affected by shell characteristics of the relatively soft-shelled Canadian periwinkles. Baltic and Canadian crabs did not differ in terms of handling time for, and handling success of, different periwinkle species, but North Sea crabs needed more time for, and were less successful in, crushing periwinkles. We conclude that C. maenas exhibits plasticity in both claw morphometry and feeding behaviour that enables this predator to handle novel prey organisms, and contributes to its success as an invader.

Description: Climate change has the potential to profoundly influence the community structure and function of marine ecosystems. Prior to testing the consequences of altered environmental conditions on ecosystem functioning, it is first necessary to better understand how the functioning of an ecosystem is affected by its structure. Using phytoplankton communities with 4 naturally co‑occurring coccolithophores including species of Emiliania, Gephyrocapsa, and Calcidiscus collected off the Azores, we experimentally tested whether varying initial dominance leads to different competitive outcomes and consequently affects community functioning, such as biomass and carbon accumulation. We manipulated initial community structure by creating 5 different dominance scenarios: (1) all species contributing evenly to total initial biomass, and (2–5) one of each species contributing 4× that of the remaining 3 species to total initial biomass. All 4 species were simultaneously grown in monocultures starting with the same total initial biomass as the communities. Monocultures differed significantly in total final biomass, particulate inorganic carbon, and particulate organic carbon content. Priority effects in the communities caused the initially dominant species to remain dominant during the stationary phase in 3 out of 4 cases. However, despite varying dominant species and different outcomes in the monocultures, community functioning was unaffected. We suggest that selective and facilitative effects are responsible for the equalization of community functioning. We conclude that monoculture experiments are not sufficient to predict whole-community responses, since species interactions can significantly alter the expected functional outcome.

Description: Droop’s cell-quota model is the most successful description of phytoplankton growth in laboratory cultures and is increasingly being introduced into the ecosystem components of biogeochemical models. Although the Droop model’s parameters can be easily interpreted in biological terms, it was nevertheless derived empirically and lacks a sound mechanistic foundation. Here we derive Droop’s model from a simple optimality condition which maximises net growth rate. Our approach links the maximum cell quota to the cost of nutrient acquisition and suggests that respiration is influenced more strongly by C fixation than by N assimilation.

Description: The growth and development of the aragonitic CaCO3 otoliths of teleost fish could be vulnerable to processes resulting from ocean acidification. The potential effects of an increase in atmospheric CO2 on the calcification of the otoliths were investigated by rearing Atlantic cod Gadus morhua L. larvae in 3 pCO2 concentrations—control (370 µatm), medium (1800 µatm) and high (4200 µatm)—from March to May 2010. Increased otolith growth was observed in 7 to 46 d post hatch (dph) cod larvae at elevated pCO2 concentrations. The sagittae and lapilli were usually largest in the high pCO2 treatment followed by the medium and control treatments. The greatest difference in mean otolith surface area (normalized to fish length) was for sagittae at 11 dph, with medium and high treatments being 46 and 43% larger than the control group, respectively. There was no significant pCO2 effect on the shape of the otoliths nor were there any trends in the fluctuating asymmetry, defined as the difference between the right and left sides, in relation to the increase in otolith growth from elevated pCO2.

Description: Previous attempts to derive the depth-dependent expression of the radiation stress have lead to a debate concerning (i) the applicability of Mellor’s approach to a sloping bottom, (ii) the introduction of the delta function at the mean sea surface in the later papers by Mellor, and (iii) a wave-induced pressure term derived in several recent studies. The authors use an equation system in vertically Lagrangian and horizontally Eulerian (VL) coordinates suitable for a concise treatment of the surface boundary, and obtain an expression for the depth-dependent radiation stress that is consistent with the vertically-integrated expression given by Longuet-Higgins and Stewart. Concerning (i)-(iii) in the above, the difficulty of handling a sloping bottom disappears when wave-averaged momentum equations in the VL coordinates are written for the development of (not the Lagrangian mean velocity but) the Eulerian mean velocity. There is also no delta function at the sea surface in the expression for the depth-dependent radiation stress. The connection between the wave-induced pressure term in the recent studies and the depth-dependent radiation stress term is easily shown by rewriting the pressure-based form stress term in the thickness-weighted-mean (TWM) momentum equations as a velocity-based term which contains the time derivative of the pseudomomentum in the TWM framework.

Description: The upper ocean, including the biologically productive euphotic zone and the mixed layer, has great relevance for studies of physical, biogeochemical, and ecosystem processes and their interaction. Observing this layer with a continuous presence, sampling many of the relevant variables, and with sufficient vertical resolution, has remained a challenge. Here a system is presented which can be deployed on the top of deep-ocean moorings, with a drive mechanism at depths of 150-200m, which mechanically winches a large sensor float and smaller communications float tethered above it to the surface and back down again, typically twice per day for periods up to 1 year. The sensor float can carry several sizeable sensors, and it has enough buoyancy to reach the near surface and for the communications float to pierce the surface even in the presence of strong currents. The system can survive mooring blow-over to 1000m depth. The battery-powered design is made possible by using a balanced energy-conserving principle. Reliability is enhanced with a drive assembly that employs a single rotating part that has no slip rings or rotating seals. The profiling bodies can break the surface to sample the near-surface layer and to establish satellite communication for data relay or reception of new commands. An inductive pass-through mode allows communication with other mooring components throughout the water column beneath the system. A number of successful demonstration deployments have been completed.

Description: In recent years, profiling floats, which form the basis of the successful international Argo observatory, are also being considered as platforms for marine biogeochemical research. This study showcases the utility of floats as a novel tool for combined gas measurements of CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and O2. These float prototypes were equipped with a small-sized and submersible pCO2 sensor and an optode O2 sensor for high resolution measurements in the surface ocean layer. Four consecutive deployments were carried out during Nov. 2010 and June 2011 near the Cape Verde Ocean Observatory (CVOO) in the eastern tropical North Atlantic. The profiling float performed upcasts every 31 h while measuring pCO2, O2, salinity, temperature and hydrostatic pressure in the upper 200 m of the water column. In order to maintain accuracy, regular pCO2 sensor zeroings at depth and surface, as well as optode measurements in air, were performed for each profile. Through the application of data processing procedures (e.g., time-lag correction) accuracies of float-borne pCO2 measurements were greatly improved (10 – 15 μatm for water column and 5 μatm for surface measurements). O2 measurements yielded an accuracy of 2 μmol kg−1. First results of this pilot study show the possibility of using profiling floats as a platform for detailed and unattended observations of the marine carbon and oxygen cycle dynamics.

Description: The use of a coupled ocean/atmosphere/sea-ice model to hindcast (i.e. historical forecast) recent climate variability is described and illustrated for the cases of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shift events in the Pacific. The initialization is achieved by running the coupled model in partially coupled mode whereby global observed wind stress anomalies are used to drive the ocean/sea-ice component of the coupled model while maintaining the thermodynamic coupling between the ocean/sea-ice and atmosphere components. Here we show that hindcast experiments can successfully capture many features associated with the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shifts. For instance, hindcast experiments started from the beginning of 1976 can capture sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific and the positive phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) throughout the 9 years following the 1976/77 climate shift, including the deepening of the Aleutian low pressure system. Hindcast experiments started from the beginning of 1998 can also capture part of the anomalous conditions during the 4 years after the 1998/99 climate. We argue that the dynamical adjustment of heat content anomalies that are present in the initial conditions in the tropics is important for the successful hindcast of the two climate shifts.

Description: Differences with respect to anti-herbivore defense were investigated in invasive and native populations of the seaweed Gracilaria vermiculophylla. Specimens from 6 native populations in East Asia and from 8 populations invasive in Europe and the Mexican Pacific coast were maintained under identical conditions and offered to herbivorous snails from both the native range (Littorina brevicula) and Europe (L. littorea) in no-choice feeding assays. L. brevicula consumed in total significantly larger amounts of G. vermiculophylla tissue than did L. littorea. Further, both snail species least consumed the seaweed specimens originating from either non-native populations or from populations native to the Korean East Sea/Sea of Japan. The Korean East Sea/Sea of Japan had previously been identified as putative donor region of all the invasive populations of G. vermiculophylla. Thus, populations in the donor region as well as non-native populations in different invaded realms feature an increased capacity to resist feeding pressure. Differences in nutrient content did not account for the observed patterns of consumption, as palatability and carbon to nitrogen (C:N) ratio were not significantly correlated. Thus, mechanical or chemical defenses or the content of feeding cues influenced the behavior of the snails. We suggest that low palatability contributed to the invasion success of the species.

Description: Repeated invasions of European waters by the ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi offer a unique opportunity to study population dynamics and dispersal in gelatinous zooplankton. Here we followed population establishment in two recently invaded areas, the North and Baltic Sea, and analysed changes in population structure during a 3-yr interval using 7 highly polymorphic microsatellites (representing 191 alleles). A second goal was to reconstruct routes of recent invasive range expansion into the Mediterranean Sea During the study period (2008-2010) populations in North Sea and Western Baltic Sea maintained their allelic composition with virtually unchanged levels of genetic diversity and between-population differentiation. This demonstrates that gene flow between the two regions was limited and indicates successful reproduction in both areas. In contrast, at the eastern distribution limit in the central Baltic (Bornholm Basin) the same measures fluctuated between years and genetic diversity decreased from 2008-2010. In concordance with prior ecological observations, this supports the view that here M. leidyi formed a sink population. In the area of recent range expansion (Mediterranean Sea) we observed high population differentiation for a holoplanktonic species. Among Mediterranean samples collected at sites in Spain, France and Israel pairwise differentiation was between Fst = 0.04-0.16. Despite such differentiation, Bayesian clustering and phylogeographic analysis support the hypothesis that all Mediterranean M. leidyi result from a secondary introduction originating in the Black Sea. Our study contributes to growing evidence that multiple invasions of the same species can vary in their degree of genetic diversity and demonstrates how genetic markers can help to resolve whether gelatinous plankton species form self-sustaining populations.

Description: One of the most remarkable features of the reproductive systems of eubrachyuran crabs is the presence of specialized organs for sperm storage, the seminal receptacles. Descriptions of seminal receptacle morphology, sperm storage time, sperm retention across molts, and the capacity to store multiple ejaculates from different males can help in understanding crab mating strategies as well as in preventing negative effects of male-biased fisheries of heavily harvested species. Metacarcinus edwardsii is the most harvested crab in Chile, but its reproductive biology is largely unstudied. In this study, the morphology of the seminal receptacles of M. edwardsii is characterized from the macroscopic to the microscopic level, during key points in the reproductive cycle. The receptacles of experimentally mated and wild-caught females were included in this analysis. Metacarcinus edwardsii has ventral-type seminal receptacles that are able to retain sperm after molting, and even after extrusion of the eggs. Stratification of multiple ejaculates is clearly observed. In general, the pattern of sperm storage indicates that populations of this species, like those of other cancrid crabs, could have high resilience to the negative effects of the selective harvest of males, principally because females have a great sperm storage capacity.

Description: Changing seawater chemistry towards reduced pH as a result of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is affecting oceanic organisms, particularly calcifying species. Responses of non-calcifying consumers are highly variable and mainly mediated through indirect ocean acidification effects induced by changing the biochemical content of their prey, as shown within single species and simple 2-trophic level systems. However, it can be expected that indirect CO2 impacts observed at the single species level are compensated at the ecosystem level by species richness and complex trophic interactions. A dampening of CO2-effects can be further expected for coastal communities adapted to strong natural fluctuations in pCO2, typical for productive coastal habitats. Here we show that a plankton community of the Kiel Fjord was tolerant to CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) levels projected for the end of this century (〈1400 µatm), and only subtle differences were observed at the extremely high value of 4000 µatm. We found similar phyto- and microzooplankton biomass and copepod abundance and egg production across all CO2 treatment levels. Stoichiometric phytoplankton food quality was minimally different at the highest pCO2 treatment, but was far from being potentially limiting for copepods. These results are in contrast to studies that include only a single species, which observe strong indirect CO2 effects for herbivores and suggest limitations of biological responses at the level of organism to community. Although this coastal plankton community was highly tolerant to high fluctuations in pCO2, increase in hypoxia and CO2 uptake by the ocean can aggravate acidification and may lead to pH changes outside the range presently experienced by coastal organisms.

Description: The notion that excess phosphorus (P) and high irradiance favour pelagic diazotrophy is difficult to reconcile with diazotroph behaviour in laboratory experiments and also with the observed distribution of N2-fixing Trichodesmium, e.g. in the relatively nitrogen (N)-rich North Atlantic Ocean. Nevertheless, this view currently provides the state-of-the-art framework to understand both past dynamics and future evolution of the oceanic fixed N inventory. In an attempt to provide a consistent theoretical underpinning for marine autotrophic N2 fixation we derive controls of diazotrophy from an optimality-based model that accounts for phytoplankton growth and N2 fixation. Our approach differs from existing work in that conditions favourable for diazotrophy are not prescribed but emerge, indirectly, from trade-offs among energy and cellular resource requirements for the acquisition of P, N, and carbon. Our model reproduces laboratory data for a range of ordinary phytoplankton species and Trichodesmium. The model predicts that (1) the optimal strategy for facultative diazotrophy is switching between N2 fixation and using dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) at a threshold DIN concentration; (2) oligotrophy, especially in P and under high light, favours diazotrophy; (3) diazotrophy is compatible with DIN:DIP supply ratios well above Redfield proportions; and (4) communities of diazotrophs competing with ordinary phytoplankton decouple emerging ambient and supply DIN:DIP ratios. Our model predictions appear in line with major observed patterns of diazotrophy in the ocean. The predicted importance of oligotrophy in P extends the present view of N2 fixation beyond a simple control by excess P in the surface ocean.

Description: The Arctic continental shelf seas hold a globally significant source of freshwater that impacts Arctic Ocean stratification, circulation, and climate. This freshwater can be injected below the surface mixed layer by intense turbulent kinetic energy dissipation events, as resolved by Laptev Sea microstructure observations. The tides provide a major source of energy that can be dissipated and hence drive diapycnal mixing in the Laptev Sea. Multiyear ADCP mooring records from locations across the shelf reveal that semidiurnal tides are dominated by theM2 and S2 constituents, with the largest amplitudes on the outer shelf. Throughoutmost of the shelf, tides are clockwise polarized and sheared by stratification, as characteristic near the M2 critical latitude. Interannual variations of the tidal and shear structures on the inner shelf aremainly determined by the stratification-setting Lena River freshwater plume. In all locations,M2 tides are enhanced under sea ice, and therefore changes in the seasonal ice cover may lead to changes in tides and water column structure. The main conclusions of this study are that (i) tides play a comparatively greater role year-round on the outer shelf relative to the inner shelf; (ii) a sea ice reduction will overall decrease the predictability of the currents, especially on the inner shelf; and (iii) the freshwater distribution directly impacts diapycnal mixing by setting the vertical tidal structure. These combined effects imply that future sea ice loss will increase the variability and vertical mixing of freshwater, particularly on the inner shelf, where the Lena River first enters the Laptev Sea.

Description: Species identification based on morphological characteristics has caused misidentifications and led to twisted views of abundances and roles of ctenophores. Based on extensive field studies from 2007 to 2010, the occurrence of the arctic ctenophore Mertensia ovum was genetically verified in the southern, central and northern Baltic Sea, and its egg production, distribution and abundance were studied in relation to physical factors. Genetic analyses indicate that M. ovum is by far the most abundant small ctenophore in the Baltic Sea. Specimens from a 20 yr old ctenophore collection were also genetically identified as M. ovum, contrary to their previous morphological identification as another ctenophore species, Pleurobrachia pileus. Thus, earlier reports on P. pileus in the Baltic Sea may actually refer to M. ovum. The abundance of M. ovum was regulated by both salinity and temperature, with highest abundances found in sea areas and water layers at temperatures 〈7°C, salinities 〉5.5 and oxygen levels 〉4 ml l-1. During summer, the highest abundances of ctenophores and their eggs were found near the halocline, while the distribution was more uniform throughout the water column during winter. Only ctenophores 〉3.5 mm (oral-aboral length) produced eggs in the experiments, with an average rate of 2.2 eggs ind.-1 d-1. Finally, comparison with published data from the 1980s (assuming that those data refer to M. ovum) indicates that the present-day ctenophore abundance is ~80% lower in the north and ~55% higher in the southern parts of the Baltic Sea, due to reasons yet to be established.

Description: Coral reefs are under threat, exerted by a number of interacting effects inherent to the present climate change, including ocean acidification and global warming. Bioerosion drives reef degradation by recycling carbonate skeletal material and is an important but understudied factor in this context. Twelve different combinations of pCO2 and temperature were applied to elucidate the consequences of ocean acidification and global warming on the physiological response and bioerosion rates of the zooxanthellate sponge Cliona orientalis—one of the most abundant and effective bioeroders on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Our results confirm a significant amplification of the sponges’ bioerosion capacity with increasing pCO2, which is expressed by more carbonate being chemically dissolved by etching. The health of the sponges and their photosymbionts was not affected by changes in pCO2, in contrast to temperature, which had significant negative impacts at higher levels. However, we could not conclusively explain the relationship between temperature and bioerosion rates, which were slightly reduced at both colder as well as warmer temperatures than ambient. The present findings on the effects of ocean acidification on chemical bioerosion, however, will have significant implications for predicting future reef carbonate budgets, as sponges often contribute the lion’s share of internal bioerosion on coral reefs.

Description: A large number of quantities have to be measured and processed to determine the atmospheric-state variables, which are the actual measurands, from aircraft-based measurements. A great part of the dependencies between these quantities depends on the aerodynamic state of the aircraft. Aircraft-based meteorological measurements, hence, require in-flight calibration. Most operators of research aircraft perform some kind of calibration, but the schemes used and the degree they are documented greatly vary. The flight maneuvers and calculation methods required, however, are published in a number of partly overlapping and partly contradictory publications. Some methods are only presented as a minor issue in publications mainly focused on atmospheric processes and are therefore hard to find. For an aircraft user, it is hence challenging to either perform or verify a calibration because of missing comprehensive guidance. This lack was stated on occasion of the in-flight calibration of the German research aircraft Polar5 carried out for the field experiment Investigation of Katabatic Winds and Polynyas during Summer (IKAPOS). In the present paper, a comprehensive review of the existing literature on this field and a practical guide to the wind calibration of a research aircraft to be used for turbulent flux measurements are given.

Description: Pelagic zooplankton were monitored from 2000 to 2012 at a permanent location near the Svalbard archipelago, at the boundary between the central Arctic Ocean and the Greenland Sea in the eastern Fram Strait. The temporal results reveal the first evidence of successful reproduction in Arctic waters by an Atlantic pelagic crustacean from temperate waters. The Atlantic hyperid amphipod Themisto compressa is shown to have expanded its range from more southerly and warmer waters from 2004 onwards. Successful reproductive activity by T. compressa in Arctic waters was confirmed in 2011, indicated by the presence of a complete temporal series of developmental stages including ovigerous females and recently hatched juveniles. The Arctic amphipod community is currently in transition and a continuing northward spread of southern invaders could cause a biodiversity shift from large Arctic to smaller Atlantic species.

Description: To accurately assess community composition of invertebrates, both active and dormant life stages should be considered. Dormant stages are typically produced as a strategy to overcome inhospitable environmental conditions and can also facilitate species dispersal. While they often sink and accumulate in sediment of natural habitats forming ‘egg banks,’ dormant stages are also found in the sediments accumulated in ships’ ballast tanks. Recent studies have used 2 different methods to separate dormant stages from ballast sediment to assess invasion risk associated with ballast tanks: the colloidal silica sol Ludox HS 40 and sugar flotation (i.e. the Onbé-Marcus method). It has been assumed that the Ludox HS 40 method is most effective for separation but reduces dormant stage viability whereas sugar flotation has lower separation efficacy but higher resulting viability. We conducted a comparative assessment of the 2 methods by separating dormant stages from 160 ballast sediments and examining resulting abundance counts, hatching results, DNA extractions and PCR amplifications. We found no difference in the results between the methods. The financial cost of sugar flotation is lower than that of Ludox HS 40, and costs can be further reduced by using only 1 method instead of both due to lower labour costs, particularly for a large number of samples.

Description: The Kasatochi volcanic eruption that occurred in the central Aleutian Islands in Alaska, USA, in August 2008 is thought to have induced a massive diatom bloom in the iron-limited waters of the Gulf of Alaska, which potentially affected the oceanic food web by increasing the abundance of zooplankton and sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in the northeast Pacific Ocean. We report the first seawater experiments involving volcanic ash ejected from the Kasatochi eruption, showing that the ash released 61 to 83 nmol Fe, 374 to 410 nmol NO3-, 5 to 6 nmol PO43- and 170 to 585 nmol SiO2 when it contacted seawater. Our study suggests that the amount of iron released from Kasatochi ash (an increase of 2.0 to 2.8 nM Fe) was indeed sufficient to cause the observed phytoplankton bloom in the northeastern Pacific Gyre, while the impact of macronutrient release was minimal. We further evaluated the multiple, interdependent processes in the oceanic food web related to the diatom bloom, involving the ocean survival of juvenile salmon that entered the northeast Pacific Ocean in the summer of 2008.

Description: Accurate projections of stratospheric ozone are required because ozone changes affect exposure to ultraviolet radiation and tropospheric climate. Unweighted multimodel ensemble-mean (uMMM) projections from chemistry–climate models (CCMs) are commonly used to project ozone in the twenty-first century, when ozone-depleting substances are expected to decline and greenhouse gases are expected to rise. Here, the authors address the question of whether Antarctic total column ozone projections in October given by the uMMM of CCM simulations can be improved by using a process-oriented multiple diagnostic ensemble regression (MDER) method. This method is based on the correlation between simulated future ozone and selected key processes relevant for stratospheric ozone under present-day conditions. The regression model is built using an algorithm that selects those process-oriented diagnostics that explain a significant fraction of the spread in the projected ozone among the CCMs. The regression model with observed diagnostics is then used to predict future ozone and associated uncertainty. The precision of the authors’ method is tested in a pseudoreality; that is, the prediction is validated against an independent CCM projection used to replace unavailable future observations. The tests show that MDER has higher precision than uMMM, suggesting an improvement in the estimate of future Antarctic ozone. The authors’ method projects that Antarctic total ozone will return to 1980 values at around 2055 with the 95% prediction interval ranging from 2035 to 2080. This reduces the range of return dates across the ensemble of CCMs by about a decade and suggests that the earliest simulated return dates are unlikely.

Description: Concentrations of heme b, the ironcontaining prosthetic group of many hemoproteins, were measured in 6 species of marine phytoplankton (Dunaliella tertiolecta, Emiliania huxleyi, Thalassio - sira weissflogii, T. oceanica, Phaeodactylum tricor - nutum and Synechococcus sp. WH7803) that were subjected to variations in iron concentration. Changes in heme b in response to reduced light and nitrate were also ex amined for E. huxleyi and T. oceanica. Results from laboratory cultures were compared with heme b determined in particulate material in the North Atlantic. In cultures, heme b made up 18 ± 14% (SE) of the total iron pool. Reduced iron and nitrate concentrations resulted in a decreased intracellular heme b concentration, expressed as per mole carbon. Chlorophyll a (chl a) to heme b ratios in E. huxleyi and D. tertiolecta in creased in response to limited light and nutrient availability, but slightly decreased or did not change in the diatoms and the cyanophyte Synechococcus sp. WH7803. The heme b:particulate organic carbon (POC) and chl a:heme b ratios in the North Atlantic were within the range observed in phytoplankton cultures. In the surface mixed layer, decreases in heme b:POC ratios were linked to decreases in nutrient concentrations. Chl a:heme b ratios increased with depth and were thus primarily affected by light availability. Relative relationships between heme b, chl a and POC in the North Atlantic likely represented a change in the ability of cells to undertake cellular processes driven by chl a (light harvesting) and heme b (e.g. electron transport) according to ambient light and nutrient conditions.

Description: Recent studies have discussed the consequences of ocean acidification for bacterial processes and diversity. However, the decomposition of complex substrates in marine environments, a key part of the flow of energy in ecosystems, is largely mediated by marine fungi. Although marine fungi have frequently been reported to prefer low pH levels, this group has been neglected in ocean acidification research. We present the first investigation of direct pH effects on marine fungal abundance and community structure. In microcosm experiments repeated in 2 consecutive years, we incubated natural North Sea water for 4 wk at in situ seawater pH (8.10 and 8.26), pH 7.82 and pH 7.67. Fungal abundance was determined by colony forming unit (cfu) counts, and fungal community structure was investigated by the culture-independent fingerprint method Fungal Automated Ribosomal Intergenic Spacer Analysis (F-ARISA). Furthermore, pH at the study site was determined over a yearly cycle. Fungal cfu were on average 9 times higher at pH 7.82 and 34 times higher at pH 7.67 compared to in situ seawater pH, and we observed fungal community shifts predominantly at pH 7.67. Currently, surface seawater pH at Helgoland Roads remains 〉8.0 throughout the year; thus we cannot exclude that fungal responses may differ in regions regularly experiencing lower pH values. However, our results suggest that under realistic levels of ocean acidification, marine fungi will reach greater importance in marine biogeochemical cycles. The rise of this group of organisms will affect a variety of biotic interactions in the sea.

Description: Evidence is presented for the notion that some contribution to the recent decadal trends observed in the Southern Hemisphere, including the lack of a strong Southern Ocean surface warming, may have originated from longer-term internal centennial variability originating in the Southern Ocean. The existence of such centennial variability is supported by the instrumental sea surface temperatures (SSTs), a multimillennial reconstruction of Tasmanian summer temperatures from tree rings, and a millennial control integration of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). The model variability was previously shown to be linked to changes in Weddell Sea deep convection. During phases of deep convection the surface Southern Ocean warms, the abyssal Southern Ocean cools, Antarctic sea ice extent retreats, and the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean weakens. After the halt of deep convection the surface Southern Ocean cools, the abyssal Southern Ocean warms, Antarctic sea ice expands, and the low-level atmospheric circulation over the Southern Ocean intensifies, consistent with what has been observed during the recent decades. A strong sensitivity of the time scale to model formulation is noted. In the KCM, the centennial variability is associated with global-average surface air temperature (SAT) changes of the order of a few tenths of a degree per century. The model results thus suggest that internal centennial variability originating in the Southern Ocean should be considered in addition to other internal variability and external forcing when discussing the climate of the twentieth century and projecting that of the twenty-first century.

Description: The wintertime northern annular mode (NAM) at the surface is known to undergo slow intraseasonal variations in association with stratospheric variability, which leads the surface signal by up to several weeks. The relative contributions, however, of potentially relevant stratosphere–troposphere coupling mechanisms are not yet fully understood. In this study the relative roles of (i) the downward effect of the zonal-mean secondary circulation induced by quasigeostrophic (QG) adjustment to stratospheric wave drag and radiative damping and (ii) wave drag local to the troposphere are estimated. For this purpose, a spectral tendency equation of the QG zonal-mean zonal wind is derived and used, in a first step, to obtain the external mechanical forcing that, in the QG framework, drives exactly the observed stratospheric and tropospheric daily NAM. In a second step, the equation is then integrated in time to reconstruct the daily NAM, but with the forcing restricted to either stratospheric or tropospheric levels, each case leaving a characteristic NAM surface signal. The relative roles of the above-mentioned mechanisms are found to be of similar quantitative importance, but to differ in a qualitative sense. The downward effect of stratospheric QG adjustment is responsible for the initiation of the NAM surface signal, whereas subsequently local tropospheric wave drag actively maintains and persists the signal over several weeks. Furthermore, the downward effect of QG adjustment to stratospheric radiative damping is shown to have only a minor impact, compared to that from stratospheric wave drag. The robustness of these conclusions is demonstrated by a sensitivity study with respect to various model parameters.

Description: The Agulhas Current plays a crucial role in the thermohaline circulation through its leakage into the South Atlantic. Under both past and present climates, the trade winds and westerlies could have the ability to modulate the amount of Indian-Atlantic inflow. Compelling arguments have been put forward suggesting that trade winds alone have little impact on the magnitude of Agulhas leakage. Here, employing three ocean models for robust analysis – a global coarse resolution, a regional eddy-permitting and a nested high-resolution eddy-resolving configuration – and systematically altering the position and intensity of the westerly wind belt in a series of sensitivity experiments, it is shown that the westerlies, in particular their intensity, control the leakage. Leakage responds proportionally to the westerlies intensity up to a certain point. Beyond this, through the adjustment of the large-scale circulation, energetic interactions occur between the Agulhas Return Current and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current that result in a state where leakage no longer increases. This adjustment takes place within 1 to 2 decades. Contrary to previous assertions, our results further show that an equatorward (poleward) shift in westerlies increases (decreases) leakage. This occurs due to the redistribution of momentum input by the winds. It is concluded that the reported present-day leakage increase could therefore reflect an unadjusted oceanic response mainly to the strengthening westerlies over the last few decades.

Description: For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.

Description: Mesoscale anticyclonic eddies in the Irminger Sea are observed using a mooring and a glider. Between 2002 and 2009, the mooring observed 53 anticyclones. Using a kinematic model, objective estimates of eddy length scales and velocity structure are made for 16 eddies. Anticyclones had a mean core diameter of 12 km, and their mean peak observed azimuthal speed was 0.1 m s(-1). They had core salinities and potential temperatures of 34.91-34.98 and 4.488-5.34 degrees C, respectively, making them warm and salty features. These properties represent a typical salinity anomaly of 0.03 and a temperature anomaly of 0.28 degrees C from noneddy values. All eddies had small (〈〈 1) Rossby numbers. In 2006, the glider observed two anticyclones having diameters of about 20 km and peak azimuthal speeds of about 0.3 m s(-1). Similar salinity anomalies were detected throughout the Irminger Sea by floats profiling in anticyclones. Two formation regions for the eddies are identified: one to the west of the Reykjanes Ridge and the other off the East Greenland Irminger Current near Cape Farewell close to the mooring. Observations indicate that eddies formed in the former region are larger than eddies observed at the mooring. A clear increase in eddy salinity is observed between 2002 and 2009. The observed breakup of these eddies in winter implies that they are a source of salt for the central gyre. The anticyclones are similar to those found in both the Labrador Sea and Norwegian Sea, making them a ubiquitous feature of the subpolar North Atlantic basins.

Description: In this article we address the causes of the large-scale tropical sea level pressure (SLP) changes during climate change. The analysis we present is based on model simulations, observed trends and the seasonal cycle. In all three cases the regional changes of tropospheric temperature (Ttropos) and SLP are strongly related to each other (considerably stronger than (sea) surface temperature and SLP). This relationship basically follows the Bjerknes Circulation Theorem, with relatively low regional SLP where we have relatively high Ttropos and vice versa. A simple physical model suggests a tropical SLP response to horizontally inhomogeneous warming in the tropical Ttropos, with a sensitivity coefficient of about -1.7 hPa/K. This relationship explains a large fraction of observed and predicted changes in the tropical SLP. It is shown that in climate change model simulations the tropospheric land-sea warming contrast is the most significant structure in the regional Ttropos changes relative to the tropical mean changes. Since the land-sea warming contrast exists in the absent of any atmospheric circulation changes it can be argued that the large-scale response of tropical SLP changes is to first order a response to the tropical land-sea warming contrast. Further, as land-sea warming contrast is mostly available moisture dependent, the models predict a stronger warming and decreasing SLP in the drier regions from South America to Africa and a weaker warming and increasing SLP over the wetter Indo-Pacific warm pool region. This suggests an increase in the potential for deep convection conditions over the Atlantic Sector and a decrease over the Indo-Pacific warm pool region in the future.

Description: Variations in eastern Indian Ocean upper-ocean thermal properties are assessed for the period 1970–2004, with a particular focus on asymmetric features related to opposite phases of Indian Ocean Dipole events, using high-resolution ocean model hindcasts. Sensitivity experiments, where atmospheric forcing variability is restricted to the Indian or Pacific Ocean only, support the interpretation of forcing mechanisms for large-scale asymmetric behavior in eastern Indian Ocean variability. Years are classified according to eastern Indian Ocean subsurface heat content (HC) as proxy of thermocline variations. Years characterized by anomalous low HC feature a zonal gradient in upper-ocean properties near the equator, while high events have a meridional gradient from the tropics into the subtropics. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the seasonal evolution of HC anomalies for the two cases is distinct, as is the relative contribution from Indian Ocean atmospheric forcing versus remote influences from Pacific wind forcing: low events develop rapidly during austral winter/spring in response to Indian Ocean wind forcing associated with an enhanced southeasterly monsoon driving coastal upwelling and a shoaling thermocline in the east; in contrast, formation of anomalous high eastern Indian Ocean HC is more gradual, with anomalies earlier in the year expanding from the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) region, initiated by remote Pacific wind forcing and transmitted through the ITF via coastal wave dynamics. Implications for seasonal predictions arise with high HC events offering extended lead times for predicting thermocline variations and upper-ocean properties across the eastern Indian Ocean.

Description: European Polar Low Working Group This workshop summarized the current state of PL research in the Arctic and Antarctic. A couple of related projects are in the planning phase or already funded. The creation of a PL database for the Norwegian Sea in the frame of the Sea Surface Temperature and Altimeter Synergy (STARS) project (http://projects.met.no stars) will provide a valuable resource for future research and, potentially, predictability improvements. The maintenance of this database and the creation of similar databases for other polar areas including satellite and NWP data are highly recommended. There is also a need for free and timely access to satellite data, in particular to SAR data to fill the gap caused by the mission end of Envisat. With the increasing resolution of climate models, mesoscale processes such as polar MCs will have to be considered in international research programs such as the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Polar Climate Predictability Initiative and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) Polar Predictability Project.

Description: The mechanisms involved in setting the annual cycle of the Florida Current transport are revisited using an adjoint model approach. Adjoint sensitivities of the Florida Current transport to wind stress reproduce a realistic seasonal cycle with an amplitude of ~1.2 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1). The annual cycle is predominantly determined by wind stress forcing and related coastal upwelling (downwelling) north of the Florida Strait along the shelf off the North American coast. Fast barotropic waves propagate these anomalies southward and reach the Florida Strait within a month, causing an amplitude of ~1 Sv. Long baroclinic planetary Rossby waves originating from the interior are responsible for an amplitude of ~0.8 Sv but have a different phase. The sensitivities corresponding to the first baroclinic mode propagate westward and are highly influenced by topography. Considerable sensitivities are only found west of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, with maximum values at the western shelf edge. The second baroclinic mode also has an impact on the Florida Current variability, but only when a mean flow is present. A second-mode wave train propagates southwestward from the ocean bottom on the western side of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge between ~36° and 46°N and at Flemish Cap, where the mean flow interacts with topography, to the surface. Other processes such as baroclinic waves along the shelf and local forcing within the Florida Strait are of minor importance.

Description: The residual effect of surface gravity waves on mean flows in the upper ocean is investigated using thickness weighted mean (TWM) theory applied in a vertically Lagrangian and horizontally Eulerian coordinate system. Depth-dependent equations for the conservation of volume, momentum, and energy are derived. These equations allow for (i) finite amplitude fluid motions, (ii) the horizontal divergence of currents and (iii) a concise treatment of both the kinematic and viscous boundary conditions at the sea surface. Under the assumptions of steady and monochromatic waves and a uniform turbulent viscosity, the TWM momentum equations are used to illustrate the pressure- and viscosity-induced momentum fluxes through the surface that are implicit in previous studies of the wave-induced modification of the classical Ekman spiral problem. The TWM approach clarifies, in particular, the surface momentum flux associated with the so-called virtual wave stress of Longuet-Higgins. Overall the TWM framework can be regarded as an alternative to the three-dimensional Lagrangian mean framework of Pierson. Moreover the TWM framework can be used to include the residual effect of surface waves in large-scale circulation models. In specific models that carry the TWM velocity appropriate for advecting tracers as their velocity variable, the turbulent viscosity term should be modified so that the viscosity acts only on the Eulerian mean velocity.

Description: Many aspects of barnacle body form are known to be developmentally plastic. Perhaps the most striking examples of such plasticity occur in their feeding legs and unusually long penises, the sizes and shapes of which can change dramatically and adaptively with changes in conspecific density and local water flow conditions. However, whether variation in overall appendage form is mirrored by structural responses in cuticle and muscle is not known. In order to determine how structural variation underlies phenotypic plasticity in barnacle appendages, we examined barnacles occurring at low and high population densities from one wave-protected and one wave-exposed site. We used histological sectioning and fluorescence microscopy of feeding legs and penises to compare cuticle thickness, muscle thickness, and muscle organization, and artificial penis inflation to compare penis extensibility. We observed striking differences in cuticle thickness, muscle thickness, and muscle organization between sites that differed in water velocity, but we found no clear differences associated with variation in conspecific density. Penis extensibility also did not differ consistently between sites. These results are consistent with an adaptive explanation for much of the remarkable and complex variation in barnacle feeding leg and penis morphology among sites that differ in water velocity.

Description: We report on a novel sponge disease, hereafter termed 'sponge white patch' (SWP), affecting the Caribbean sponge species Amphimedon compressa. SWP is characterized by distinctive white patches of variable size that are found irregularly on the branches of diseased sponges. Nearly 20% of the population of A. compressa at Dry Rocks Reef, Florida, USA, showed symptoms of SWP at the time of investigation (November 2007-July 2010). Approximately 21% of the biomass of SWP individuals was bleached, as determined by volume displacement. Scanning electron microscopy analysis showed severe degradation of bleached tissues. Transmission electron microscopy of the same tissues revealed the presence of a spongin-boring bacterial morphotype that had previously been implicated in sponge disease (Webster et al. 2002; Mar Ecol Prog Ser 232:305-309). This particular morphotype was identified in 8 of 9 diseased A. compressa individuals investigated in this study. A close relative of the aforementioned disease-causing alphaproteobacterium was also isolated from bleached tissues of A. compressa. However, whether the spongin-boring bacteria are true pathogens or merely opportunistic colonizers remains to be investigated. Molecular fingerprinting by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) demonstrated a distinct shift from the microbiota of healthy A. compressa to a heterogeneous mixture of environmental bacteria, including several phylotypes previously implicated in sponge stress or coral disease. Nevertheless, tissue transplantation experiments conducted in the field failed to demonstrate infectivity from diseased to healthy sponges, leaving the cause of SWP in A. compressa to be identified.

Description: Microchemical otolith analyses have been shown to provide valuable information on the life history, dispersal and stock characteristics of teleost fish. In the present study, the suitability of this technique for identifying the origin and distribution of Atlantic cod Gadus morhua L. from the Baltic Sea was examined using laser ablation-ICPMS. The capacity to distinguish individuals from different Baltic Sea stocks and from the adjacent North Sea stock based on incoporation of stock-specific elemental fingerprints along otolith growth axes was investigated. It was further tested if different origins led to spawning-site specific element concentrations in otolith cores. The results indicate that microchemical analyses of Baltic cod otoliths are applicable for differentiating individuals of different stocks. Analyses of similarities including 12 element/calcium ratios resulted in significant differences between individuals from the eastern and the western Baltic Sea and between North Sea and Baltic Sea samples. Sr/Ca, Ba/Ca, Y/Ca, Mg/Ca, Zr/Ca and Mn/Ca ratios had the strongest discriminatory power. A further separation of individuals caught in 3 different spawning grounds of the eastern Baltic, however, was not possible. Elemental compositions from the core regions of otoliths from young of the year cod caught in eastern and western Baltic Sea spawning grounds showed significant differences in Sr/Ca, Ba/Ca and Mg/Ca concentrations. Analyses of similarities again showed significant differences between these areas for juveniles. This study demonstrates the potential of otolith microchemical analyses to provide important information about the stock structure and connectivity of G. morhua in the Baltic Sea.

Description: The present study investigated the effect of temperature on male and female swimming activity of the calanoid copepod Temora longicornis, sampled during winter (February) and summer (August) in the English Channel coastal ecosystem. Video recordings were conducted at 3 temperatures representative of those to which these organisms are normally exposed (13, 16 and 20 degrees C) and one extreme-event temperature (24 degrees C). Examinations of instantaneous velocity and symbolic analysis (i.e. dynamics of swimming states discretized from time series of instantaneous velocity) showed that T. longicornis changed its behaviour when confronted with environmental temperature variations. Swimming speed increased as temperature increased. In warmer water, this copepod displayed higher swimming activity, break periods were less frequent, and the frequency of jumps increased. This phenomenon was amplified when the environmental temperature was increased to 24 degrees C. These observations revealed a considerable tolerance to high temperatures and an ability to adjust to environmental temperature changes. The 'summer population' was less active in the low temperature range, but the swimming speed reached a higher value at higher temperatures than that shown by the 'winter population'. The results of the present study highlighted changes in the individual behaviour of this copepod in response to changing seasonal conditions in the form of swimming activity, and thus its ability to maintain biological processes throughout the year, even in a restrictive environment.

Description: The conspicuous retreat of the key species Fucus vesiculosus from the deeper parts of its former distribution area in the Baltic Sea has triggered extensive research on the factors that control its growth. Based on recently obtained knowledge on a large number of potential drivers, we developed a numerical model incorporating effects of abiotic factors on the physiological functions of photosynthesis, respiration, and reproduction and the ecological processes of competition, grazing, and epibiosis. For all input combinations, the model delivers the monthly net growth rate near the bladder wrack’s depth limit and the maximum depth of its vertical distribution. The use of data corresponding to conditions presently observed in the western Baltic Sea sets the year’s maximum algal net growth rate in late spring and 2 minima in early spring and autumn. The depth limit of the wrack’s distribution is set at ~9 m. Light and its absorption by phytoplankton represent by far the most important factors controlling the modeled net growth rate and depth penetration, with the role of epibiosis requiring further investigation. Lacking findings on population dynamics and biotic interactions restrict the generated model to an exploratory rather than a predictive tool.

Description: The impact of seawater acidification on calcifying organisms varies at the species level. If the impact differs between predator and prey in strength and/or sign, trophic interactions may be altered. In the present study, we investigated the impact of 3 different seawater pCO2 levels (650, 1250 and 3500 µatm) on the acid–base status or the growth of 2 predatory species, the common sea star Asterias rubens and the shore crab Carcinus maenas, and tested whether the quantity or size of prey consumed is affected. We exposed both the predators and their prey, the blue mussel Mytilus edulis, over a time span of 10 wk and subsequently performed feeding experiments. Intermediate acidification levels had no significant effect on growth or consumption in either predator species. The highest acidification level reduced feeding and growth rates in sea stars by 56%, while in crabs a 41% decrease in consumption rates of mussels could be demonstrated over the 10 wk experimental period but not in the subsequent shorter feeding assays. Because only a few crabs moulted in the experiment, acidification effects on crab growth could not be investigated. Active extracellular pH compensation by means of bicarbonate accumulation was observed in C. maenas, whereas the coelomic fluid pH in A. rubens remained uncompensated. Acidification did not provoke a measurable shift in prey size preferred by either predator. Mussels exposed to elevated pCO2 were preferred by previously untreated A. rubens but not by C. maenas. The observed effects on species interactions were weak even at the high acidification levels expected in the future in marginal marine habitats such as the Baltic Sea. Our results indicate that when stress effects are similar (and weak) on interacting species, biotic interactions may remain unaffected.

Description: Pseudomonas strains were shown to be regularly associated with the brown macroalga Saccharina latissima from the Baltic Sea, studied over several years, and were identified as producers of the antimicrobially active compound 2,4-diacetylphloroglucinol. These findings support the assumption of a stable association between the Pseudomonas spp. strains and S. latissima in the Baltic Sea. The metabolite profile of the Pseudomonas spp. comprised monoacetylphloroglucinol, 2,4-diacetylphloroglucinol, pyoluteorin and several rhizoxins, which exhibited broad-spectrum antibiotic activities against Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria as well as against fungi. Because the antibiotic activities included the inhibition of the 2 algal pathogens Pseudoalteromonas elyakovii and Algicola bacteriolytica, we propose a beneficial effect of these marine pseudomonads on their host S. latissima.

Description: Phytoplankton experience strong and abrupt variations in light intensity. How cells cope with these changes influences their competitiveness in a highly dynamical environment. While a considerable amount of work has focused on photoacclimation, it is still unknown whether processes specific of phytoplankton groups (e.g. calcification and silicification) influence their response to changing light. Here we show that the diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum and the coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi respond to an abrupt increase in irradiance by increasing carbon fixation rates, decreasing light absorption through the decrease of light-harvesting pigments and increasing energy dissipation through the xanthophyll cycle. In addition, E. huxleyi rapidly increases calcium carbonate precipitation in response to elevated light intensity, thereby providing an additional sink for excess energy. Differences between the 2 species also emerge with regard to the magnitude and timing of their individual responses. While E. huxleyi show a pronounced decrease in chlorophyll a and fucoxanthin cellular contents following increased light intensity, P. tricornutum has a faster increase in diadinoxanthin quota, a slower decrease in Fv/Fm (ratio of variable to maximum fluorescence) and a stronger increase in organic carbon fixation rate during the first 10 min. Our findings provide further evidence of species-specific responses to abrupt changes in light intensity, which may partly depend on the phytoplankton functional groups, with coccolithophores having a supplementary path (calcification) for the rapid dissipation of excess energy produced after an abrupt increase in light intensity. These differences might influence competition between coexisting species and may therefore have consequences at the community level.

Description: The tropical Atlantic wind response to El Niño forcing is robust, with weakened northeast trade winds north of the equator and strengthened southeast trade winds along and south of the equator. However, the relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific and Atlantic is inconsistent, with El Niño events followed sometimes by warm and other times by cold boreal summer anomalies in the Atlantic cold tongue region. Using observational data and a hindcast simulation of the Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO) global model at 0.5° resolution (NEMO-ORCA05), this inconsistent SST relationship is shown to be at least partly attributable to a delayed negative feedback in the tropical Atlantic that is active in years with a warm or neutral response in the eastern equatorial Atlantic. In these years, the boreal spring warming in the northern tropical Atlantic that is a typical response to El Niño is pronounced, setting up a strong meridional SST gradient. This leads to a negative wind stress curl anomaly to the north of the equator that generates downwelling Rossby waves. When these waves reach the western boundary, they are reflected into downwelling equatorial Kelvin waves that reach the cold tongue region in late boreal summer to counteract the initial cooling that is due to the boreal winter wind stress response to El Niño. In contrast, this initial cooling persists or is amplified in years in which the boreal spring northern tropical Atlantic warming is weak or absent either because of a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase or an early termination of the Pacific El Niño event.

Description: Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations will have profound effects on atmospheric and hydrographic processes, which will ultimately modify the supply and chemistry of trace metals in the ocean. In addition to an increase in sea surface temperatures, higher CO2 also results in a decrease of seawater pH, known as ocean acidification, with implications for inorganic trace metal chemistry. Furthermore, direct or indirect effects of ocean acidification and ocean warming on marine biota will also affect trace metal biogeochemistry via alteration of biological trace metal uptake rates and metal binding to organic ligands. Currently, we still lack a holistic understanding of the impacts of decreasing seawater pH and rinsing temperatures on different trace metals and marine biota, which complicates projections into the future. Here, we outline how ocean acidification and ocean warming will influence the inputs and cycling of Fe and other biologically relevant trace metals globally, and regionally in high and low latitudes of the future ocean, discuss uncertainties, and highlight essential future research fields.

Description: Three bioassay experiments were performed to study the effects of nutrient and Saharan dust additions on natural diazotrophic communities in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean. Samples for nucleic acid analysis were collected at the beginning and end of 48 h incubations. TaqMan probes specific to 7 diazotrophic phylotypes, viz. filamentous cyanobacteria (Trichodesmium spp.), unicellular cyanobacterial (UCYN) Groups A, B, and C, Gamma A and P Proteobacteria, and Cluster III, were used to quantify nifH DNA abundances. N-2 fixation rates were measured in the same experiments using the N-15(2) gas bubble injection method. N-2 fixation was co-limited by P and Fe. Total nifH abundances increased relative to the control with additions of either Fe or P or both in combination. Additions of dissolved N, alone or in combination with phosphate, induced increases in UCYN-A and Gamma A nifH compared with the control. Saharan dust additions significantly stimulated fixation rates. Abundances of all cyanobacterial and Gamma A nifH phylotypes at least doubled after Saharan dust additions where surface water dissolved Fe concentrations were 〈2 nmol l(-1). Laboratory experiments with cultures of T. erythraeum demonstrated that dust addition promoted colony formation and the persistence of T. erythraeum biomass relative to cultures to which no Fe was added. Our results with both field and laboratory experiments indicate that Saharan dust positively affects diazotrophic phylotype abundances and changes T. erythraeum colony morphology.

Description: Initial-value predictability measures the degree to which the initial state can influence predictions. In this paper, the initial-value predictability of six atmosphere–ocean general circulation models in the North Pacific and North Atlantic is quantified and contrasted by analyzing long control integrations with time invariant external conditions. Through the application of analog and multivariate linear regression methodologies, average predictability properties are estimated for forecasts initiated from every state on the control trajectories. For basinwide measures of predictability, the influence of the initial state tends to last for roughly a decade in both basins, but this limit varies widely among the models, especially in the North Atlantic. Within each basin, predictability varies regionally by as much as a factor of 10 for a given model, and the locations of highest predictability are different for each model. Model-to-model variations in predictability are also seen in the behavior of prominent intrinsic basin modes. Predictability is primarily determined by the mean of forecast distributions rather than the spread about the mean. Horizontal propagation plays a large role in the evolution of these signals and is therefore a key factor in differentiating the predictability of the various models.

Description: Through the use of mesocosm experiments, we show that an unusually early spring phytoplankton bloom can be induced by intermittent high-light periods. We performed mesocosm experiments where plankton assemblages from Kiel Bight (Western Baltic Sea) received a light regime based on the natural seasonal irradiance dimmed to 43% of surface irradiance of cloudless days, starting with irradiance levels of mid-January (6 mesocosms) and mid-February (6 mesocosms). After 6 d, half of the mesocosms received a ca. 2-fold increase in irradiance. In the January mesocosms, a phytoplankton bloom developed only in the treatments with the high-light episode, whereas in the February mesocosms a phytoplankton bloom also developed in the controls. Phytoplankton net growth rates, production:biomass ratios and biomass at the end of the high irradiance episodes were positively correlated to the daily light dose. The relative biomass of diatoms increased with increasing light, whereas the relative biomass of cryptophytes decreased. A bottom-up transmission to mesozooplankton (mainly copepods of the genera Acartia and Oithona) was evident by increased densities of copepod nauplii and egg production under higher light conditions, whereas copepodids and adults showed no responses during the experimental period. The taxonomic composition of the nauplii was shifted to the advantage of Acartia/Centropages (not distinguished at the naupliar stage) under higher light conditions.

Description: Sudden stratospheric warmings are prominent examples of dynamical wave–mean flow interactions in the Arctic stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere winter. They are characterized by a strong temperature increase on time scales of a few days and a strongly disturbed stratospheric vortex. This work investigates a wide class of supervised learning methods with respect to their ability to classify stratospheric warmings, using temperature anomalies from the Arctic stratosphere and atmospheric forcings such as ENSO, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and the solar cycle. It is demonstrated that one representative of the supervised learning methods family, namely nonlinear neural networks, is able to reliably classify stratospheric warmings. Within this framework, one can estimate temporal onset, duration, and intensity of stratospheric warming events independently of a particular pressure level. In contrast to classification methods based on the zonal-mean zonal wind, the approach herein distinguishes major, minor, and final warmings. Instead of a binary measure, it provides continuous conditional probabilities for each warming event representing the amount of deviation from an undisturbed polar vortex. Additionally, the statistical importance of the atmospheric factors is estimated. It is shown how marginalized probability distributions can give insights into the interrelationships between external factors. This approach is applied to 40-yr and interim ECMWF (ERA-40/ERA-Interim) and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data for the period from 1958 through 2010.

Description: In an effort to identify the key mechanisms controlling biological productivity and food web structure in the Chesapeake Bay estuarine turbidity maxima (ETM), we measured plankton community metabolism on a series of surveys in the upper Chesapeake Bay during the winter and spring of 2007 and 2008. Measured quantities included primary production, bacterial production, planktonic community respiration, and algal pigment concentrations. These measurements revealed a classic minimum in photosynthesis in the vicinity of the ETM. Temporal variability in plankton community metabolism, primary production, respiration, and bacterial production, were highest in the southern oligohaline region down-estuary of the ETM, and appeared to be driven by dynamic bio-physical interactions. Elevated primary production and community respiration in this region were often associated with the presence of mixotrophic dinoflagellates. The dinoflagellate contribution to primary production and respiration appeared to be particularly large as a result of their mixotrophic capabilities, which allow them to obtain energy both autotrophically and heterotrophically. This study suggests that mixotrophic dinoflagellates play a key role in pelagic food web in the oligohaline region of Chesapeake Bay supplying most of the labile organic matter during late winter and spring and also providing a vector for transferring microbial production to mesozooplankton.

Description: A model, composed of coupled particle tracking and benthic response modules, for predicting waste solids flux and benthic impacts of gilthead sea bream (Sparus aurata L.) and sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax L.) aquaculture, was tested at six sites with different hydrodynamics, bathymetries and biomasses in the Aegean and Ionian Seas, Eastern Mediterranean with observations of sediment trap flux and benthic impact indicators. Seven sediment trap validation studies were conducted that varied in design with traps deployed either on the sea bed, attached to nets or in the water column. Model predictions of flux to traps spaced 5 m apart up to 50 m from the cages over a 13 d period were statistically significant (r2 = 0.61, n = 57, p ≤ 0.05). However, the model could not predict adequately the flux to traps spaced 2 m apart in the high-flux zone underneath cages where variability between trap observations was high. In this high-flux zone underneath cages, the averaged model flux predictions resulted in a performance of ± 49%. Statistically significant relationships were established at four sites; between modelled flux and either benthic fauna impact indicator species (S), abundance (A), A/S ratio, Shannon Wiener Index or Biomass Fractionation Index (BFI), (r2 = 0.82, 0.60, 0.57, 0.67 and 0.48, respectively; n = 24, p ≤ 0.05). Two other sites, which did not exhibit an abundance peak in enriched zones, did not fit these relationships. Using relative abundance of taxonomic groups, a modelled flux of 4.1 g m-2 d-1 was a useful boundary; on either side of this boundary, clear trends occurred in pollutant tolerant and intolerant species.

Description: To analyze the probability density distributions of surface turbulent heat fluxes, the authors apply the twoparametric modified Fisher–Tippett (MFT) distribution to the sensible and latent turbulent heat fluxes recomputed from 6-hourly NCEP–NCAR reanalysis state variables for the period from 1948 to 2008. They derived the mean climatology and seasonal cycle of the location and scale parameters of the MFT distribution. Analysis of the parameters of probability distributions identified the areas where similar surface turbulent fluxes are determined by the very different shape of probability density functions. Estimated extreme turbulent heat fluxes amount to 1500–2000 W m22 (for the 99th percentile) and can exceed 2000 W m22 for higher percentiles in the subpolar latitudes and western boundary current regions. Analysis of linear trends and interannual variability in the mean and extreme fluxes shows that the strongest trends in extreme fluxes (more than 15 W m22 decade21) in the western boundary current regions are associated with the changes in the shape of distribution. In many regions changes in extreme fluxes may be different from those for the mean fluxes at interannual and decadal time scales. The correlation between interannual variability of themean and extreme fluxes is relatively low in the tropics, the SouthernOcean, and the Kuroshio Extension region.Analysis of probability distributions in turbulent fluxes has also been used in assessing the impact of sampling errors in theVoluntaryObserving Ship (VOS)-based surface flux climatologies, allowed for the estimation of the impact of sampling in extreme fluxes. Although sampling does not have a visible systematic effect onmean fluxes, sampling uncertainties result in the underestimation of extreme flux values exceeding 100 W m22 in poorly sampled regions.

Description: Both ocean warming and acidification have been demonstrated to affect the growth, performance and reproductive success of calcifying invertebrates. However, relatively little is known regarding how such environmental change may affect interspecific interactions. We separately treated green crabs Carcinus maenas and periwinkles Littorina littorea under conditions that mimicked either ambient conditions (control) or warming and acidification, both separately and in combination, for 5 mo. After 5 mo, the predators, prey and predator-prey interactions were screened for changes in response to environmental change. Acidification negatively affected the closer-muscle length of the crusher chela and correspondingly the claw-strength increment in C. maenas. The effects of warming and/or acidification on L. littorea were less consistent but indicated weaker shells in response to acidification. On the community level, however, we found no evidence that predator-prey interactions will change in the future. Further experiments exploring the impacts of warming and acidification on key ecological interactions are needed instead of basing predictions of ecosystem change solely on species-specific responses to environmental change.

Description: Stress often induces metabolically expensive countermeasures. Bivalve shell production is costly and can thus be indirectly impacted by environmental stress. Suboptimal salinity and temperature may constitute stressors that allocate energy away from shell production to cellular processes such as osmoregulation or to the repair of cellular damage. In the course of climate change, water temperatures of the Baltic Sea are predicted to increase, and salinity is predicted to regionally decrease. These shifts may lead to increased stress for temperate marine species adapted to relatively cool water temperatures and high salinity conditions. To better understand the importance of climate change-related stress, we assessed the isolated and interactive effects of salinity and temperature on shell increment (cumulative growth: shell), cellular oxidative stress (accumulation of oxidized lipids and proteins: lipofuscin), instantaneous physiological condition (condition index: CI), and mortality of young Mytilus edulis and Arctica islandica from the western Baltic Sea. Temperature and salinity interactively affected shell increment, lipofuscin accumulation, and mortality of M. edulis as well as shell increment of A. islandica. Shell increment of M. edulis was less affected by hyposalinity than shell increment of A. islandica. In both species the CI decreased and lipofuscin accumulation increased with increasing temperature. Lipofuscin accumulation negatively correlated with shell increment in M. edulis. We conclude that Baltic Sea populations of ecologically relevant bivalve species may experience severe stress by the predicted regional scenario of warming and desalination if evolutionary adaptation does not happen at a similar rate.

Description: Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) is a dominant Southern Hemisphere water mass that spreads from its formation regions just north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) to at least 20°S in all oceans. This study uses an isopycnal climatology constructed from Argo conductivity–temperature–depth (CTD) profile data to define the current state of the AAIW salinity minimum (its core) and thence compute anomalies of AAIW core pressure, potential temperature, salinity, and potential density since the mid-1970s from ship-based CTD profiles. The results are used to calculate maps of temporal property trends at the AAIW core, where statistically significant strong circumpolar shoaling (30–50 dbar decade−1), warming (0.05°–0.15°C decade−1), and density reductions [up to −0.03 (kg m−3) decade−1] are found. These trends are strongest just north of the ACC in the southeast Pacific and Atlantic Oceans and decrease equatorward. Salinity trends are generally small, with their sign varying regionally. Bottle data are used to extend the AAIW core potential temperature anomaly analysis back to 1925 in the Atlantic and to ~1960 elsewhere. The modern warm AAIW core conditions appear largely unprecedented in the historical record: biennially and zonally binned median AAIW core potential temperatures within each ocean basin are, with the notable exception of the subtropical South Atlantic in the 1950s–70s, 0.2–1°C colder than modern values. Zonally averaged sea surface temperature anomalies around the AAIW formation latitudes in each ocean and sectoral southern annular mode indices are used to put the AAIW core property trends and variations into context.

Description: Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases could lead to undesirable effects on oceans in coming centuries. Drawing on recommendations published by the German Advisory Council on Global Change, levels of unacceptable global marine change (so-called guardrails) are defined in terms of global mean temperature, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. A global-mean climate model [the Aggregated Carbon Cycle, Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model (ACC2)] is coupled with an economic module [taken from the Dynamic Integrated Climate–Economy Model (DICE)] to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis to derive CO2 emission pathways that both minimize abatement costs and are compatible with these guardrails. Additionally, the “tolerable windows approach” is used to calculate a range of CO2 emissions paths that obey the guardrails as well as a restriction on mitigation rate. Prospects of meeting the global mean temperature change guardrail (2° and 0.2°C decade−1 relative to preindustrial) depend strongly on assumed values for climate sensitivity: at climate sensitivities 〉3°C the guardrail cannot be attained under any CO2 emissions reduction strategy without mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gases. The ocean acidification guardrail (0.2 unit pH decline relative to preindustrial) is less restrictive than the absolute temperature guardrail at climate sensitivities 〉2.5°C but becomes more constraining at lower climate sensitivities. The sea level rise and rate of rise guardrails (1 m and 5 cm decade−1) are substantially less stringent for ice sheet sensitivities derived in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, but they may already be committed to violation if ice sheet sensitivities consistent with semiempirical sea level rise projections are assumed.

Description: Mesopelagic fishes occur in all the world’s oceans, but their abundance and consequently their ecological significance remains uncertain. The current global estimate based on net sampling prior to 1980 suggests a global abundance of one gigatonne (109 t) wet weight. Here we report novel evidence of efficient avoidance of such sampling by the most common myctophid fish in the Northern Atlantic, i.e. Benthosema glaciale. We reason that similar avoidance of nets may explain consistently higher acoustic abundance estimates of mesopelagic fish from different parts of the world’s oceans. It appears that mesopelagic fish abundance may be underestimated by one order of magnitude, suggesting that the role of mesopelagic fish in the oceans might need to be revised.

Description: Seagrasses worldwide are commonly infected by endophytic protists of the genus Labyrinthula. To date, the nature of interaction of endophyte and host is not well understood. In eelgrass (Zostera marina) Labyrinthula zosterae may become virulent (pathogenic) and lead to the loss of entire sea grass beds. One of the best known examples of any marine epidemic were outbreaks of the ´wasting disease´ on both sides of the Atlantic in the 1930s, but smaller infestations have been reported until recently. Up to now, detection of infection by Labyrinthula was based on the wasting index, i.e. the relative area of leaf lesions or microscopy, while genetic data are virtually absent. We characterized a ~1400 base pair portion of the 18S small subunit rDNA in L. zosterae isolates (N=41) from six northern European sites and one southern location (Adriatic Sea) in order to assess identity and potential diversity of endophytic protists. Because there are indications that low salinity impedes Labyrinthula growth, sampling sites included a wide range of salinities from 5-34 psu. A search against the non-redundant GENBANK data base revealed that most isolates are 99% similar to the only L. zosterae 18S sequence available from the data base at all but the Finish site (salinity values 5-7 psu). At the latter site, a different Labyrinthula species occurred, which was also found in fully marine Wadden Sea cultures. A third species was detected in Skagerrak, south-western Baltic and North Sea samples (20-25 psu). We conclude that L. zosterae is widespread among northern European eelgrass sites across wide ranges of salinity.

Description: Historical hydrographic data (1940s–2010) show a distinct cross-slope difference of the lower halocline water (LHW) over the Laptev Sea continental margins. Over the slope, the LHW is on average warmer and saltier by 0.2°C and 0.5 psu, respectively, relative to the off-slope LHW. The LHW temperature time series constructed from the on-slope historical records are related to the temperature of the Atlantic Water (AW) boundary current transporting warm water from the North Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, the on-slope LHW salinity is linked to the sea ice and wind forcing over the potential upstream source region in the Barents and northern Kara Seas, as also indicated by hydrodynamic model results. Over the Laptev Sea continental margin, saltier LHW favors weaker salinity stratification that, in turn, contributes to enhanced vertical mixing with underlying AW.

Description: The equatorial deep jets (EDJ) are a striking feature of the equatorial ocean circulation. In the Atlantic Ocean, the EDJ are associated with a vertical scale of between 300 and 700 m, a time scale of roughly 4.5 years and upward energy propagation to the surface. It has been found that the meridional width of the EDJ is roughly 1.5 times larger than expected based on their vertical scale. Here we use a shallow water model for a high order baroclinic vertical normal mode to argue that mixing of momentum along isopycnals can explain the enhanced width. A lateral eddy viscosity of 300 m2 s−1 10 is found to be sufficient to account for the width implied by observations.

Description: Growth rates of the cold-water corals (CWC) Madrepora oculata, Lophelia pertusa, Desmophyllum dianthus and Dendrophyllia cornigera were measured over 8 mo under controlled conditions (12°C in the dark, fed 5 times a week) by means of the buoyant weight technique. Additionally, linear growth rates were measured in M. oculata and L. pertusa for 2 and 1 yr, respectively. The weight measurements revealed growth rates, expressed as percent growth per day (mean ± SD), of 0.11 ± 0.04 for M. oculata, 0.02 ± 0.01 for L. pertusa, 0.06 ± 0.03 for D. dianthus and 0.04 ± 0.02 % d–1 for D. cornigera. Growth in M. oculata was significantly higher (p 〈 0.0001) than in the other 3 CWC species. For M. oculata and L. pertusa, also linear growth was recorded. These values (mean ± SD) were 0.014 ± 0.007 and 0.024 ± 0.018 mm d–1 for M. oculata and L. pertusa, respectively. This is the first study that compares the growth rates of 4 different CWC species under the same experimental conditions of water flow, temperature, salinity and food supply. These corals have different growth rates, both in terms of total weight increase and linear increase, and these growth rates can be related to interspecific physiological differences. Data on growth rates are essential to understand the population dynamics of CWC as well as the recovery capacity of these communities after disturbance.

Description: The suggestion is advanced that the remarkably low static stability of Antarctic surface waters may arise from a feedback loop involving global deep-water temperatures. If deep-water temperatures are too warm, this promotes Antarctic convection, thereby strengthening the inflow of Antarctic Bottom Water into the ocean interior and cooling the deep ocean. If deep waters are too cold, this promotes Antarctic stratification allowing the deep ocean to warm because of the input of North Atlantic Deep Water. A steady-state deep-water temperature is achieved such that the Antarctic surface can barely undergo convection. A two-box model is used to illustrate this feedback loop in its simplest expression and to develop basic concepts, such as the bounds on the operation of this loop. The model illustrates the possible dominating influence of Antarctic upwelling rate and Antarctic freshwater balance on global deep-water temperatures.

Description: The focus of this study was the 11.55 m long sediment core 303700-7, which was retrieved from the Gdansk Basin during a cruise of RV ‘Poseidon’ within the frame of the Russian–German Project GISEB. The core was analysed for grain size, elemental chemical composition, organic carbon and palynological spectra. The age control was based on palynostratigraphy and 7 radiocarbon datings of bulk sedimentary organic matter. These data provide a high-resolution record of climatic and marine palaeoenvironments in the Gdansk Basin for the last ca. 13 kyr, from the Bølling to late Holocene time. Sedimentation rates were estimated to vary between 0.37 and 1.62 mm yr–1. Major variations in palaeosalinity were estimated from bromine concentrations in the sediment. This method allows the first quantitative reconstruction of palaeosalinity changes in the Baltic Sea, especially profound during the Littorina and Postlittorina periods (middle to late Holocene). In addition, grain size data indicated several Littorina transgressive–regressive stages and a few episodes of increased near-bottom current activity. Our results from the Gdansk Basin are consistent with palaeoceanographic data from other deep basins of the Baltic Sea and provide new insights into the regional Holocene history.

Description: We assessed the effects of light limitation and temperature shift on palatability and induced antiherbivore defense in the brown alga Fucus vesiculosus L. Incubation for 2 wk at light intensities above the compensation point of photosynthesis and in the absence of grazers increased the palatability of F. vesiculosus and its subsequent consumption by the omnivorous isopod Idotea baltica Pallas. This effect correlated with an increased C:N ratio and mannitol content in the algal tissue, presumably due to increased photosynthetic carbon fixation. Mannitol, the primary product of photosynthesis in F. vesiculosus, proved to be a feeding cue for I. baltica, and depletion of the mannitol pool may therefore account for the reduced palatability during light limitation. At light intensities above the compensation point of photosynthesis, F. vesiculosus responded with decreasing palatability when it was exposed to I. baltica grazing. Irrespective of the preceding light regime, such defense induction was prevented during incubation under light limitation. Thus, under low light, defense induction is not only inhibited, but also less necessary due to the relative absence of feeding cues. Upward or downward shifts in water temperature by approximately 10°C also inhibited inducible defense in F. vesiculosus. However, such shifts did not affect algal growth and were therefore the consequence of an impairment of specific defense-related components rather than of resource limitation, unless compensatory growth was given priority over defense.

Description: The synergistic effects of fishing, climate and internal dynamics on population fluctuations are poorly understood due to the complexity of these interactions. In this paper, we combine time series analysis and simulations to investigate the long-term dynamics of an overexploited population in the Mediterranean Sea, and its link with both fishing-induced demographic changes and hydroclimatic variability. We show that the cyclicity of the catch per unit of effort (CPUE) of European hake Merluccius merluccius (EH) vanished in the 1980s, while the correlation between the CPUE and a local environmental index increased. Using simulations, we then show that the cyclicity observed in the EH biomass before the 1980s can have an internal origin, while that its disappearance could be due to the fishing-induced erosion of the age structure. Our results suggest that fishing can trigger a switch from internally generated to externally forced population fluctuations, the latter being characterised by an increasing dependency of the population on recruitment and ultimately on environmental variability. Hydroclimatic modifications occurring in the Mediterranean in the early 1980s could have enhanced these changes by leading to a mismatch between early life stages of EH and favorable environmental conditions. Our conclusions underline the key effect of the interaction between exploitation and climate on the dynamics of EH and its important consequences for management and conservation.

Description: The warming trend for the entire globe (1850 to 2005) is 0.04°C decade–1. A specific warming period started around 1980 and continues until the present. This warming also occurred in the Baltic Sea catchment, which lies between maritime temperate and continental subarctic climate zones. A detailed study of climate variability and the associated impact on the Baltic Sea area for the period 1958 to 2009 revealed that the recent changes in the warming trend are associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic. The number and pathways of deep cyclones changed considerably in line with an eastward shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation centers of action. There is a seasonal shift of strong wind events from autumn to winter and early spring. Since the late 1980s, the winter season (DJFM, i.e. December to March) of the Baltic Sea area has tended to be warmer, with less ice coverage and warmer sea surface temperatures, especially pronounced in the northern parts of the Baltic Sea. There is a tendency for increased cloud cover and precipitation in regions that are exposed to westerlies and less cloud coverage at the leeward side of the Scandinavian Mountains and over the Baltic Sea Basin.

Description: We assessed the seasonal change in trophic interactions at the mesograzer and small predator level in a temperate eelgrass system. This was done through stable isotope (δ13C and δ15N) and fatty acid analyses of eelgrass Zostera marina, attached epiphytes, sand microflora, the red alga Delesseria sanguinea, and the 4 most common mesograzer and predator species. Sampling took place monthly in the western part of the Baltic Sea during a whole year (April 2002 to February 2003). The trophic importance of microalgae was corroborated in all studied species. Red algae were consumed to a lesser extent and eelgrass was of minor importance. The degree of dependence on the main carbon sources was species-specific and varied with time. The small gastropod, Rissoa membranacea, mostly grazed epiphytes (73% on average), whereas the fractions of epiphytes and sand microflora showed a more balanced pattern in the other mesograzer species. Stable carbon data and fatty acid composition strongly suggested that epiphytic algae were the primary source of organic matter for mesograzers in late spring and autumn. In summer, sand microflora were of greater importance as carbon sources, except for the amphipod Gammarus oceanicus for which red algae was the most important. Stable nitrogen values indicated that the degree of carnivory was size-dependent in both omnivorous crustacean species studied; larger individuals generally occupied a higher trophic position than did smaller ones. Furthermore, the isopod Idotea baltica was more herbivorous in summer than in the other seasons. Our results confirm the importance of species-specific and temporal variability for the effect of mesograzers in eelgrass systems. The significance of mesograzers as determinants of food-web structure via the reduction of epiphytes is further corroborated by our study, and the observed high plasticity of mesograzers concerning food sources may promote the stability of eelgrass food webs despite strong seasonal variations in the biomass of primary producers.