ALBERT

Description: The freshwater runoff from the glaciated and snow-covered Sermilik Fjord catchment, SE Greenland, was estimated at annual resolution for the period 1900–2008 and at decadal resolution for the past four millennia. Our simulations were forced with available meteorological station data (1900–2008) and Greenland ice core estimated temperature data (1899 bc – ad 1980) from Dye3 and GISP2. Time series of estimated ice discharge (2000–2009) for the three major outlet glaciers Helheim, Fenris, and Midgård indicate that 53–74% of the ice discharge variations could be explained by variations in areally averaged glacier terminus surface (supraglacial) runoff. Based on these data and together with calculated subglacial geothermal and frictional melting as well as net precipitation for the fjord area, the Sermilik Fjord freshwater flux was deduced for the period 1900–2008. Our simulations indicated that during the last century surface freshwater runoff has equaled 13% of the Sermilik Fjord average freshwater flux of 33.0±5.7 x 10 9 m 3 /yr, covering a periodic runoff variation of 20 years. Ice discharge has accounted for 81%, with 63% of the freshwater flux originated from the Helheim glacier. This indicates that the Helheim outlet glacier plays a dominant role as a freshwater source to both Sermilik Fjord and ultimately the Irminger Sea. For the palaeorecords of the last 4000 years, simulated surface runoff has averaged 4.4±0.2 x 10 9 m 3 /yr. A very weak decreasing trend in runoff over the last 4 k years (1899 bc – ad 1980) is presumably associated with the general insolation-generated Northern Hemisphere cooling since the Holocene Thermal Maximum. Our simulations furthermore indicated centennial- to submillennial-scale variations in surface runoff concurrent with the well-known climate episodes such as the ‘Roman Warm Period’, the ‘Dark Ages Cold Period’, the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’, and the ‘Little Ice Age’. During the ‘Little Ice Age’, e.g., the average surface runoff was about 0.7 x 10 9 m 3 /yr lower than today, while the increase in runoff for the Modern Warming, since the late 1800s, was the second strongest and fastest for the last 4 k years.

Description: An automated layer counting technique is developed to estimate the chronology of a marine sediment core and this technique is validated with Pb 210 chronology. The marine sediment core was sampled in front of the delta of Mittivakkat Glacier meltwater river in the Sermilik Fjord, SE Greenland, and is a proxy of the sediment delivery from a glacial drainage basin to a fjord. The estimated time series was based on automatic lamination detection (varves) on a line scan of the core using gray scale intensities, and covered the last two centuries. The estimated time series of sediment accumulation rates was coupled to modelled runoff from the Mittivakkat Glacier and compared with local climatic parameters (air temperature and precipitation) and with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index. Maxima in the sediment accumulation rate at the bottom of the side-fjord, about 1 km from the delta, mostly depended on glacier ablation and consequently on changes in river runoff, which were initiated by the air temperature. This was especially the case during transition from colder periods towards warmer, where short-lived maxima in sediment accumulation rates were followed by lower rates, even though the temperature remained high. This suggested a quite rapid glacial response to changes in climatic forcing, and/or a hysteresis effect, where sediment stored in the glacier/valley system was evacuated soon after a temperature dependent increase in discharge. The air temperature was in turn controlled by the AMO index.

Description: Ammassalik in southeast Greenland is known for strong wind events that can reach hurricane intensity and cause severe destruction in the local town. Yet, these winds and their impact on the nearby fjord and shelf region have not been studied in detail. Here, data from two meteorological stations and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) are used to identify and characterize these strong downslope wind events, which are especially pronounced at a major east Greenland fjord, Sermilik Fjord, within Ammassalik. Their local and regional characteristics, their dynamics and their impacts on the regional sea ice cover, and air–sea fluxes are described. Based on a composite of the events it is concluded that wind events last for approximately a day, and seven to eight events occur each winter. Downslope wind events are associated with a deep synoptic-scale cyclone between Iceland and Greenland. During the events, cold dry air is advected down the ice sheet. The downslope flow is accelerated by gravitational acceleration, flow convergence inside the Ammassalik valley, and near the coast by an additional thermal and synoptic-scale pressure gradient acceleration. Wind events are associated with a large buoyancy loss over the Irminger Sea, and it is estimated that they drive one-fifth of the net wintertime loss. Also, the extreme winds drive sea ice out of the fjord and away from the shelf.

Description: Most glaciers and ice caps (GIC) are out of balance with the current climate. To return to equilibrium, GIC must thin and retreat, losing additional mass and raising sea level. Because glacier observations are sparse and geographically biased, there is an undersampling problem common to all global assessments. Here, we further develop an assessment approach based on accumulation-area ratios (AAR) to estimate committed mass losses and analyze the undersampling problem. We compiled all available AAR observations for 144 GIC from 1971 to 2010, and found that most glaciers and ice caps are farther from balance than previously believed. Accounting for regional and global undersampling errors, our model suggests that GIC are committed to additional losses of 32 ± 12% of their area and 38 ± 16% of their volume if the future climate resembles the climate of the past decade. These losses imply global mean sea-level rise of 163 ± 69 mm, assuming total glacier volume of 430 mm sea-level equivalent. To reduce the large uncertainties in these projections, more long-term glacier measurements are needed in poorly sampled regions.

Description: This observation and modeling study provides insights into runoff exiting the Watson River drainage basin, Kangerlussuaq, West Greenland during a 30 year period (1978/79–2007/08) when the climate experienced increasing temperatures and precipitation. The 30-year simulations quantify the terrestrial freshwater output from part of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and the land between the GrIS and the ocean, in the context of global warming and increasing GrIS surface melt. We used a snow-evolution modeling system (SnowModel) to simulate the winter accumulation and summer ablation processes, including runoff and surface mass balance (SMB), of the ice sheet. To a large extent, the SMB fluctuations could be explained by changes in net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation and sublimation), with 8 out of 30 years having negative SMB, mainly because of relatively low annual net precipitation. The overall trend in net precipitation and runoff increased significantly, while SMB increased insignificantly throughout the simulation period, leading to enhanced precipitation of 0.59 km3 w.eq. (or 60%), runoff of 0.43 km3 w.eq. (or 54%), and SMB of 0.16 km3 w.eq. (or 86%). Runoff rose on average from 0.80 km3 w.eq. in 1978/79 to 1.23 km3 w.eq. in 2007/08. The percentage of catchment outlet runoff explained by runoff from the GrIS decreased on average ∼10%.

Description: Most glaciers and ice caps (GIC) are out of balance with the current climate. To return to equilibrium, GIC must thin and retreat, losing additional mass and raising sea level. Because glacier observations are sparse and geographically biased, there is an undersampling problem common to all global assessments. Here, we further develop an assessment approach based on accumulation-area ratios (AAR) to estimate committed mass losses and analyze the undersampling problem. We compiled all available AAR observations for 144 GIC from 1971–2010 and found that most glaciers and ice caps are farther from balance than previously believed. Accounting for regional and global undersampling errors, our model suggests that GIC are committed to additional losses of 30 ± 11% of their area and 38 ± 17% of their volume if the future climate resembles the climate of the past decade. These losses imply global mean sea-level rise of 163 ± 73 mm, assuming total glacier volume of 430 mm sea-level equivalent. To reduce the large uncertainties in these projections, more long-term glacier measurements are needed in poorly sampled regions.

Description: Here, we document changes for the Mittivakkat Gletscher, the glacier in Greenland (disconnected to the Greenland Ice Sheet, GrIS) having the longest observed mass balance and surface velocity time series (since 1995). Between 1986 and 2011, this glacier decreased by 15% in mean ice thickness and 30% in volume. We attribute these changes to summer warming and less winter snowfall. The vertical strain was able to compensate about 60% of the elevation change due to surface mass balance (SMB) in the lower part, and about 25% in the upper part. The annual mean ice surface velocity decreased by 30%, likely as a dynamic effect of ice thinning. Mittivakkat Gletscher summer surface velocities were on average 50–60% above winter background values, and up to 160% higher during peak velocity events.

Description: Fluctuations in terrestrial surface freshwater flux to Sermilik Fjord, SE Greenland, were simulated and analyzed. SnowModel, a state-of-the-art snow-evolution, snow and ice melt, and runoff modeling system, was used to simulate the temporal and spatial terrestrial runoff distribution to the fjord based on observed meteorological data (1999–2008) from stations located on and around the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Simulated runoff was compared and verified against independent glacier catchment runoff observations (1999–2005). Modeled runoff to Sermilik Fjord was highly variable, ranging from 2.9×109 m3 y−1 in 1999 to 5.9×109 m3 y−1 in 2005. The uneven spatial runoff distribution produced an areally-averaged annual maximum runoff at the Helheim glacier terminus of more than 3.8 m w.eq. The sub-catchment runoff of the Helheim glacier region accounted for 25% of the total runoff to Sermilik Fjord. The runoff distribution from the different sub-catchments suggested a strong influence from the spatial variation in glacier coverage. To assess the Sermilik Fjord freshwater flux, simulated terrestrial runoff and net precipitation (precipitation minus evaporation and sublimation) for the fjord area were combined with satellite-derived ice discharge and subglacial geothermal and frictional melting due to basal ice motion. A terrestrial freshwater flux of ~40.4×109 m3 y−1 was found for Sermilik Fjord, with an 11% contribution originated from surface runoff. For the Helheim glacier sub-catchment only 4% of the flux originated from terrestrial surface runoff.

Description: Landsat imagery was applied to elucidate glacier fluctuations of land- and marine-terminating outlet glaciers from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) and local land-terminating glaciers and ice caps (GIC) peripheral to the GrIS in the Ammassalik region, Southeast Greenland, during the period 1972–2011. Data from 21 marine-terminating glaciers (including the glaciers Helheim, Midgaard, and Fenris), the GrIS land-terminating margin, and 35 GIC were examined and compared to observed atmospheric air temperatures, precipitation, and reconstructed ocean water temperatures (at 400 m depth in the Irminger Sea). Here, we document that net glacier recession has occurred since 1972 in the Ammassalik region for all glacier types and sizes, except for three GIC. The land-terminating GrIS and GIC reflect lower marginal and areal changes than the marine-terminating outlet glaciers. The mean annual land-terminating GrIS and GIC margin recessions were about three to five times lower than the GrIS marine-terminating recession. The marine-terminating outlet glaciers had an average net frontal retreat for 1999–2011 of 0.098 km yr−1, which was significantly higher than in previous sub-periods 1972–1986 and 1986–1999. For the marine-terminating GrIS, the annual areal recession rate has been decreasing since 1972, while increasing for the land-terminating GrIS since 1986. On average for all the observed GIC, a mean net frontal retreat for 1986–2011 of 0.010 ± 0.006 km yr−1 and a mean areal recession of around 1% per year occurred; overall for all observed GIC, a mean recession rate of 27 ± 24% occurred based on the 1986 GIC area. Since 1986, five GIC melted away in the Ammassalik area.